politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bad news for TMay from ConHome – nearly two thirds of members
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bad news for TMay from ConHome – nearly two thirds of members surveyed want her out
With voting due to start at Westminster at 6pm there’s bad news for the PM from the ultra Brexiteer site, ConHome. A snap survey finds 63% of those who participated wanting the PM out.
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(Knives, knives, knives.)
Also, these numbers need to be calibrated to the number of people in London. Otherwise, they're meaningless.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1072882952059674624
Quite a contrast with the views of Conservative voters (and I doubt if anything like 63% of members want her out).
I TOTALLY AND UTTERLY REJECT YOUR EXPRESSIONS OF SORROW
BE UNDER NO ILLUSION THESE ARE CROCODILE TEARS YE ARE CRYING
They would bring down the government to prevent the backstop, they are in favour of Brexit, but they also want the Republic and Northern Ireland to - errrr - continue pretty much as they are now. They know that a No Deal Brexit that lead to a nasty Northern Ireland recession - and, for the record I suspect Northern Ireland and London would be the worst affected parts of the UK in a No Deal scenario - might lead to a reunification referendum. And that is what they must avoid at all costs.
Those London homicide figures are a bit misleading because the population of the capital is now significantly higher than 2010 for instance, and also the number of homicides this year is only one ir two higher than in previous years.
The Daily Mail Comments Section Front.
They are as mental as the 500k new Labour members.
"Boris couldn't run a whelk stall. The idea I'd follow him on anything serious is faintly ridiculous."
I presume that there is an equally large hole in his future reproductive capacity?
Glad that Tuss is otherwise OK
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.152437591
"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
22m22 minutes ago
France, Ipsos poll:
Approval ratings (president+party leaders)
Bayrou (MoDem-ALDE): 28%
Le Pen (RN-ENF): 27%
Mélenchon (FI-LEFT): 26% (+2)
Dupont-Aignan (DLF-EFDD): 25% (+6)
Hamon (G.s.-S&D): 22% (-5)
Macron (LREM-ALDE): 20% (-6)
Field work: 7/12/18 – 8/12/18
Sample size: 971"
FPT Thanks to TSE for clarification on A50 revocation.
Sure, Jan.
https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1072906967625150471
You should note none of this is by any means "legally binding", so Mrs May just lied to the faces of the 1922.
Prepare to be underwhelmed. It needs to sway the DUP, who hate to back down.
* not legally binding, only 'best-effort' commitments.
* makes no changes to the WA, and explicitly AFFIRMS the WA
* says nothing about Northern Ireland
* requires the UK govt to take the EU's word on trust.
* disallows any further clarifications and commitments.
It's an absolute catastrofuck that confirms all the worst expectations of, well, everyone about the futility of this effort.
https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1072906967625150471
https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1072915160208158721
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1072915225194700800
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1072914884977922048
I can’t recall when I last saw evidence of such clear thinking at Westminster. Possibly during the Coalition.
And besides, Cinnamon sounds forrin. Never do old boy. Wrong sort, eh what?
Choice at Manchester of 2 Newcastle bound trains that arrived on adjacent platforms within 1 minute of each other. I caught the first arrival rather than the earlier scheduled, obviously the other one then got first signals.
Now been told this train is terminating at Stalybridge due to a bird strike.
Sort of glad I didn't place any bets today.
The striking fact is the level of hostility towards Macron and the precipitous drop since the spring (he was at 40% in April
Amazingly, even Fillon (23), whose candidacy implosed last year and has left politics, is now more popular than Macron (20).
Only his unknown or incompetent ministers are polling lower than him, except of cours the hapless Wauquiez (15!), leader of what remains of the non-macronist right and the totally unknown Faure (12), leader of the moribund Socialist party.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-46533245
17:55
She says they emphasised their position that they were "not seeking assurances or promises" but "fundamental legal text changes".
Mrs Foster adds: "The prime minister has known our position. We have been consistent which is why it is so frustrating that our warnings about the backstop have not been heeded.
"The DUP wants a sensible deal which our MPs can support in the House. Over the coming weeks, we will continue to work towards that.
"Unionism in Northern Ireland and across the House of Commons has rightly stood against this withdrawal agreement. It should be utterly unacceptable to any unionist. For Northern Ireland traders to be expected to treat GB as a third country is ridiculous and was never going to receive support in Parliament.”
On a separate point, why do you go on about Corbyn being a threat to the economy yet deny a Hard Brexit would not be a problem? In reality both are a serious economic threat!
She's a weak leader of an incompetent Government. They saddle themselves with her now and they're stuck with her in the event of a snap election, which has to be factored in as a distinct possibility. Especially given the extreme tension between her stubborn commitment to her EU deal and her relationship with the DUP, and also the non-negligible possibility that some of the hotter sort of Brexiteers might resign from the party and help no confidence the Government if she tries to do an even softer deal that is not to their liking.
There's doubtless no shortage of MPs (for which, read virtually all of them) who think they could do a better job, and amongst those with no realistic leadership ambitions there could still be thoughts of propelling a favoured candidate into position, and of their own survival in the event of another election taking place. True, some MPs may also be worried that they'll end up with someone even worse, but the Parliamentary Conservative Party has the power to filter candidates before they go off to the membership, and the ERG on its own doesn't have anywhere close to the number of votes needed to guarantee a candidate makes the run-off. One would therefore assume that the Tory Corbyn Prevention Mechanism will do its job, and there is no realistic prospect of someone like JRM or Boris getting through.
The main impulse staying the hands of many MPs will presumably be the fear that the eventual winner of the contest might end up having to countenance No Deal to secure the backing of party members. However, if they aren't prepared to break with their party and form a compact with Opposition MPs to avert Brexit, and they can't or won't back either the Deal or Remain because of their aforementioned difficulties with the DUP and their own Brexit ultras (not to mention the 2017 manifesto,) then they are frankly better off with at least having some direction - any direction - to go in as a single unit, even if they think it is the wrong one, than to go on being rudderless and drifting. Because having a lemon sat uselessly in Downing St whilst the clock runs down would just lead them to No Deal by default anyway.
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I know, I know. She's probably going to pick up about 250 endorsements and romp to victory now, isn't she? This is why I normally only bet once-a-year on the Grand National (although I have managed to get it right occasionally: Neptune Collonges was a nice little earner.)
Corbyn models his vision of the nation on Venezuela.
Only one is a serious economic threat.
Eleven Sports, a streaming service that aimed to become the "Netflix of sport", is at risk of closure after only four months, following its failure to secure distribution via established pay-TV operators and amid concern over mounting losses.
The Daily Telegraph has learnt that Eleven Sports is considering pulling the plug on its UK operation after the mixed martial arts competition UFC triggered an exit clause on its exclusive deal, which was due to begin in January.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/12/12/netflix-sport-streaming-service-eleven-sports-risk-closure/