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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bad news for TMay from ConHome – nearly two thirds of members surveyed want her out
With voting due to start at Westminster at 6pm there’s bad news for the PM from the ultra Brexiteer site, ConHome. A snap survey finds 63% of those who participated wanting the PM out.
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Interestingly, there has just been one of the biggest gaps between homicides in a long time: there was a homicide on 24 November, and then another today. When was the last time there were 19 days between homicides?Sean_F said:
Still quite a long way below the numbers for the previous decade though.FrancisUrquhart said:The number of killings in London has reached the highest number for a decade.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-46540182
(Knives, knives, knives.)
Also, these numbers need to be calibrated to the number of people in London. Otherwise, they're meaningless.0 -
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(secret ballot)0
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Quite a contrast with the views of Conservative voters (and I doubt if anything like 63% of members want her out).0 -
Apparently people are crying in the room.
I TOTALLY AND UTTERLY REJECT YOUR EXPRESSIONS OF SORROW
BE UNDER NO ILLUSION THESE ARE CROCODILE TEARS YE ARE CRYING0 -
If there is to be a split, a real one - and I have to say that it really is time - then I suspect ConservativeHome will need a new name.0
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Just talking to some Tory voters this afternoon, they think the Tories have gone mad and intent on self-destruction. May is still seen as better than say Boris Johnson but a clean skin like Javid, Hunt or Rudd might be more popular in the country but not with the membership. William Hague really screwed the party with his extending the franchise to Tory members...Sean_F said:
Quite a contrast with the views of Conservative voters (and I doubt if anything like 63% of members want her out).0 -
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Tears of sorrow or tears of joy. I bet Williamson is blubbing.0
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The DUP's position is a bit more nuanced than that. They would be happy with the UK staying in a Customs Union with the EU, but they are not happy with any situation where there are regulatory or customs barriers between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.AmpfieldAndy said:
She lost her majority in 2016 and only continues with the support of the DUP who won’t support her deal or her in a VNOC unless the backstop goes.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well it is reaffirming the vote of 2017 which is the will of the people.AmpfieldAndy said:
When have polls rather than votes ever decided any political decision ?TheScreamingEagles said:
WILL.OF.THE.PEOPLE.Scott_P said:
They would bring down the government to prevent the backstop, they are in favour of Brexit, but they also want the Republic and Northern Ireland to - errrr - continue pretty much as they are now. They know that a No Deal Brexit that lead to a nasty Northern Ireland recession - and, for the record I suspect Northern Ireland and London would be the worst affected parts of the UK in a No Deal scenario - might lead to a reunification referendum. And that is what they must avoid at all costs.0 -
Indeed. And, frankly, they don't have any good choices or easy ways out - a nightmare for politicians.grabcocque said:(secret ballot)
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"I weep for you the Walrus said....."grabcocque said:Apparently people are crying in the room.
I TOTALLY AND UTTERLY REJECT YOUR EXPRESSIONS OF SORROW
BE UNDER NO ILLUSION THESE ARE CROCODILE TEARS YE ARE CRYING0 -
O/T
Those London homicide figures are a bit misleading because the population of the capital is now significantly higher than 2010 for instance, and also the number of homicides this year is only one ir two higher than in previous years.0 -
Whatever the ConHome want, safe bet is to do the opposite.
The Daily Mail Comments Section Front.
They are as mental as the 500k new Labour members.0 -
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The two big parties are rapidly morphing into extremist caricatures completely out of tune with most votersThe_Taxman said:
Just talking to some Tory voters this afternoon, they think the Tories have gone mad and intent on self-destruction. May is still seen as better than say Boris Johnson but a clean skin like Javid, Hunt or Rudd might be more popular in the country but not with the membership. William Hague really screwed the party with his extending the franchise to Tory members...Sean_F said:
Quite a contrast with the views of Conservative voters (and I doubt if anything like 63% of members want her out).0 -
Ken Clarke putting the boot in very wittily - and savagely - into Johnson, JR-M and Davies.
"Boris couldn't run a whelk stall. The idea I'd follow him on anything serious is faintly ridiculous."0 -
It's a backbench group of a private club, the Tory party.Beverley_C said:
Banging and cheering? It is the legislature, not bl**dy Eton first year.Scott_P said:0 -
Beverley_C said:
Banging and cheering? It is the legislature, not bl**dy Eton first year.Scott_P said:
Why don't they just livestream these things? We hear about all the details near as live anyway.Scott_P said:0 -
Indeed, I have come across people who say they stopped watching the news for fear of what will happen next. This is a crisis!felix said:
The two big parties are rapidly morphing into extremist caricatures completely out of tune with most votersThe_Taxman said:
Just talking to some Tory voters this afternoon, they think the Tories have gone mad and intent on self-destruction. May is still seen as better than say Boris Johnson but a clean skin like Javid, Hunt or Rudd might be more popular in the country but not with the membership. William Hague really screwed the party with his extending the franchise to Tory members...Sean_F said:
Quite a contrast with the views of Conservative voters (and I doubt if anything like 63% of members want her out).0 -
It's activists, rather than members. I think activists tend towards the, uh, wobblier end of the sanity spectrum. Because no sane person would want to do leafleting and canvasing.Sean_F said:0 -
FPT:
I presume that there is an equally large hole in his future reproductive capacity?Cyclefree said:
The Cat is now back, a bit spaced out but otherwise OK and looking forward to running the country once he has had his special post-op dinner and a good sleep.Beverley_C said:
Yes. We already agreed this afternoon that a piece of bacon rind I took out of my kicthen sink's drain is the next DexEU SoS. Cyclefree and I drew up the Cabinet positions earlier and they are upthread.David_Evershed said:
Time for a different DEXEU Secretary of State?MarqueeMark said:If May survives - significant Cabinet reshuffle?
There is still some debate about the 18 goldfish however, but Charles is looking into the fish tank....
I too am looking forward to managing his PM's salary since there is an enormous hole in my savings caused by the vet's bill.
Glad that Tuss is otherwise OK
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Scott_P said:
The alternative being? It's not rocket science, if they keep her on she is highly likely to lead them in the next election if it happens ahead of schedule (which seems very likely) because there'd be no way to get a new leader in place.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I have always liked Ken Clarke and I like him more and more at presentCyclefree said:Ken Clarke putting the boot in very wittily - and savagely - into Johnson, JR-M and Davies.
"Boris couldn't run a whelk stall. The idea I'd follow him on anything serious is faintly ridiculous."0 -
Nah, we're still at the culture shock phase. The crisis doesn't begin until after the meaningful vote.The_Taxman said:
Indeed, I have come across people who say they stopped watching the news for fear of what will happen next. This is a crisis!felix said:
The two big parties are rapidly morphing into extremist caricatures completely out of tune with most votersThe_Taxman said:
Just talking to some Tory voters this afternoon, they think the Tories have gone mad and intent on self-destruction. May is still seen as better than say Boris Johnson but a clean skin like Javid, Hunt or Rudd might be more popular in the country but not with the membership. William Hague really screwed the party with his extending the franchise to Tory members...Sean_F said:
Quite a contrast with the views of Conservative voters (and I doubt if anything like 63% of members want her out).0 -
Mrs May is 1/8 to win with Betfair.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1524375910 -
This is the main issue today - do they think an election will happen in the next year?Scott_P said:0 -
Ha ha she tells them she won't lead the party into the next election and then says she might for a snap election. Her promises don't even last 5 minutes now.0
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Ken Clarke 4 PM on an interim basis. He will take the difficult decisions other politicians kick down the road. He is not frit!Cyclefree said:Ken Clarke putting the boot in very wittily - and savagely - into Johnson, JR-M and Davies.
"Boris couldn't run a whelk stall. The idea I'd follow him on anything serious is faintly ridiculous."0 -
Did May just hint, very strongly, we're on for a January election?0
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O/T
"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
22m22 minutes ago
France, Ipsos poll:
Approval ratings (president+party leaders)
Bayrou (MoDem-ALDE): 28%
Le Pen (RN-ENF): 27%
Mélenchon (FI-LEFT): 26% (+2)
Dupont-Aignan (DLF-EFDD): 25% (+6)
Hamon (G.s.-S&D): 22% (-5)
Macron (LREM-ALDE): 20% (-6)
Field work: 7/12/18 – 8/12/18
Sample size: 971"0 -
Just too pro-EU to be accepted I should think, even though he is backing the exit deal (despite not even voting to trigger A50, showing he is no extremist remoaner).The_Taxman said:
Ken Clarke 4 PM on an interim basis. He will take the difficult decisions other politicians kick down the road. He is not frit!Cyclefree said:Ken Clarke putting the boot in very wittily - and savagely - into Johnson, JR-M and Davies.
"Boris couldn't run a whelk stall. The idea I'd follow him on anything serious is faintly ridiculous."
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If so that should seal the deal that they've got to get rid of her.grabcocque said:Did May just hint, very strongly, we're on for a January election?
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It's not a lie at all. If they vote for her now they have to understand that if there's a snap GE there's nobody else to lead them into it. She can promise not to lead them into a planned election, but if her being in place for a snap GE is too much for them, and I can easily see it, they need to remove her.Xenon said:Ha ha she tells them she won't lead the party into the next election and then says she might for a snap election. Her promises don't even last 5 minutes now.
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Given MrsMay is the only Conservative MP who definitely cannot command a HoC majority on the only available EU Deal.. if she wins, the WA must surely take the title for 'longest suicide note'.0
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I agree with that. I'm shocked by the number of people who think we are at the climactic stage.grabcocque said:
Nah, we're still at the culture shock phase. The crisis doesn't begin until after the meaningful vote.The_Taxman said:
Indeed, I have come across people who say they stopped watching the news for fear of what will happen next. This is a crisis!felix said:
The two big parties are rapidly morphing into extremist caricatures completely out of tune with most votersThe_Taxman said:
Just talking to some Tory voters this afternoon, they think the Tories have gone mad and intent on self-destruction. May is still seen as better than say Boris Johnson but a clean skin like Javid, Hunt or Rudd might be more popular in the country but not with the membership. William Hague really screwed the party with his extending the franchise to Tory members...Sean_F said:
Quite a contrast with the views of Conservative voters (and I doubt if anything like 63% of members want her out).
FPT Thanks to TSE for clarification on A50 revocation.0 -
If May really has just said she might yet lead them into a snap election, then she has just snatched defeat from the jaws of victory......0
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ConHome is an assylum for the disaffected.0
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Or that the deal is no proper exit ...kle4 said:
Just too pro-EU to be accepted I should think, even though he is backing the exit deal (despite not even voting to trigger A50, showing he is no extremist remoaner).The_Taxman said:
Ken Clarke 4 PM on an interim basis. He will take the difficult decisions other politicians kick down the road. He is not frit!Cyclefree said:Ken Clarke putting the boot in very wittily - and savagely - into Johnson, JR-M and Davies.
"Boris couldn't run a whelk stall. The idea I'd follow him on anything serious is faintly ridiculous."0 -
Historically that punishment was reserved for nobles and higher.kle4 said:
Beheading would seem more appropriate if it is happening outside the Banqueting House.rpjs said:
They'll still be arguing whose fault it is when the Revolutionary Tribunal is tying the ropes around their necks outside the Banqueting House.0 -
This survey cannot be correct. It should be 100% against TMFenster said:Whatever the ConHome want, safe bet is to do the opposite.
The Daily Mail Comments Section Front.
They are as mental as the 500k new Labour members.0 -
Only "faintly" ?!? ... quite a boost for Boris, some might intone ...Cyclefree said:Ken Clarke putting the boot in very wittily - and savagely - into Johnson, JR-M and Davies.
"Boris couldn't run a whelk stall. The idea I'd follow him on anything serious is faintly ridiculous."0 -
Even if that is so, he clearly is not an extremist remoaner - Brexiteers less stern than yourself back the deal, fanatics like Grieve are fighting tooth and nail to remain at all costs. he doesn't think it is not a proper exit. Clarke is not doing so, even though there's surely little they could threaten him with.Philip_Thompson said:
Or that the deal is no proper exit ...kle4 said:
Just too pro-EU to be accepted I should think, even though he is backing the exit deal (despite not even voting to trigger A50, showing he is no extremist remoaner).The_Taxman said:
Ken Clarke 4 PM on an interim basis. He will take the difficult decisions other politicians kick down the road. He is not frit!Cyclefree said:Ken Clarke putting the boot in very wittily - and savagely - into Johnson, JR-M and Davies.
"Boris couldn't run a whelk stall. The idea I'd follow him on anything serious is faintly ridiculous."0 -
He is a serious politician for serious times. He was brought back by Cameron when the going got rough and a politician with serious bottom was required. I know people dislike his position on Europe but given the last two years, his antipathy to Brexit has proved spot on. Prior to this he opposed the Iraq war and back in government in the 1990s his judgement on the economy was validated in setting the ground work for a very good era of economic performance.kle4 said:
Just too pro-EU to be accepted I should think, even though he is backing the exit deal (despite not even voting to trigger A50, showing he is no extremist remoaner).The_Taxman said:
Ken Clarke 4 PM on an interim basis. He will take the difficult decisions other politicians kick down the road. He is not frit!Cyclefree said:Ken Clarke putting the boot in very wittily - and savagely - into Johnson, JR-M and Davies.
"Boris couldn't run a whelk stall. The idea I'd follow him on anything serious is faintly ridiculous."0 -
So despite Macro the centre still leads the way....if only we had such good sense.AndyJS said:O/T
"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
22m22 minutes ago
France, Ipsos poll:
Approval ratings (president+party leaders)
Bayrou (MoDem-ALDE): 28%
Le Pen (RN-ENF): 27%
Mélenchon (FI-LEFT): 26% (+2)
Dupont-Aignan (DLF-EFDD): 25% (+6)
Hamon (G.s.-S&D): 22% (-5)
Macron (LREM-ALDE): 20% (-6)
Field work: 7/12/18 – 8/12/18
Sample size: 971"0 -
Draft EUCO "addendum" on the WA here:
https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1072906967625150471
You should note none of this is by any means "legally binding", so Mrs May just lied to the faces of the 1922.0 -
Well, MPs are the nobles of our day, really. Some are even practically hereditary!rpjs said:
Historically that punishment was reserved for nobles and higher.kle4 said:
Beheading would seem more appropriate if it is happening outside the Banqueting House.rpjs said:
They'll still be arguing whose fault it is when the Revolutionary Tribunal is tying the ropes around their necks outside the Banqueting House.
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This is like the first round of a 7 or 8 candidate AV count. We are just eliminating the first possibility and seeing how it nudges the other ones. While that's progress after all the Brexit constipation this is still the very beginning. All that's guarenteed is the Letters variable goes.
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Being the right person to say 'I told you so' may not help try to lead the Tories away from no deal, which they are perilously close to.The_Taxman said:
He is a serious politician for serious times. He was brought back by Cameron when the going got rough and a politician with serious bottom was required. I know people dislike his position on Europe but given the last two years, his antipathy to Brexit has proved spot on. Prior to this he opposed the Iraq war and back in government in the 1990s his judgement on the economy was validated in setting the ground work for a very good era of economic performance.kle4 said:
Just too pro-EU to be accepted I should think, even though he is backing the exit deal (despite not even voting to trigger A50, showing he is no extremist remoaner).The_Taxman said:
Ken Clarke 4 PM on an interim basis. He will take the difficult decisions other politicians kick down the road. He is not frit!Cyclefree said:Ken Clarke putting the boot in very wittily - and savagely - into Johnson, JR-M and Davies.
"Boris couldn't run a whelk stall. The idea I'd follow him on anything serious is faintly ridiculous."0 -
So what was all the fuss about all this time then!?grabcocque said:
Prepare to be underwhelmed. It needs to sway the DUP, who hate to back down.0 -
No they're bloody not !!!!!!!!!kle4 said:
Well, MPs are the nobles of our day, really. Some are even practically hereditary!rpjs said:
Historically that punishment was reserved for nobles and higher.kle4 said:
Beheading would seem more appropriate if it is happening outside the Banqueting House.rpjs said:
They'll still be arguing whose fault it is when the Revolutionary Tribunal is tying the ropes around their necks outside the Banqueting House.0 -
She's a compulsive liar. Says to anyone what they want to hear even if its in front of a camera and says to the next person what they want to hear even if they've seen her just say the opposite on camera.grabcocque said:Draft EUCO "addendum" on the WA here:
https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1072906967625150471
You should note none of this is by any means "legally binding", so Mrs May just lied to the faces of the 1922.0 -
It won't. The EUCO draft iskle4 said:
So what was all the fuss about all this time then!?grabcocque said:
Prepare to be underwhelmed. It needs to sway the DUP, who hate to back down.
* not legally binding, only 'best-effort' commitments.
* makes no changes to the WA, and explicitly AFFIRMS the WA
* says nothing about Northern Ireland
* requires the UK govt to take the EU's word on trust.
* disallows any further clarifications and commitments.
It's an absolute catastrofuck that confirms all the worst expectations of, well, everyone about the futility of this effort.
https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/10729069676251504710 -
M'lord, I'm sorry, but it's where the power lies that matters.JackW said:
No they're bloody not !!!!!!!!!kle4 said:
Well, MPs are the nobles of our day, really. Some are even practically hereditary!rpjs said:
Historically that punishment was reserved for nobles and higher.kle4 said:
Beheading would seem more appropriate if it is happening outside the Banqueting House.rpjs said:
They'll still be arguing whose fault it is when the Revolutionary Tribunal is tying the ropes around their necks outside the Banqueting House.0 -
No doubt some leading Tory will be on the phone to make a few adjustments. Those forrin chaps will understand once things are explained to them .... LOUDLY..... AND..... SLOWLYgrabcocque said:Draft EUCO "addendum" on the WA here:
https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1072906967625150471
You should note none of this is by any means "legally binding", so Mrs May just lied to the faces of the 1922.0 -
It shows he has got good political judgement, not afraid of tomorrows headlines being negative and a track record of making tough decisions. I think he could only be interim leader if a National Government came along at which KC would be PM. Alas we are unlikely to see a National Government!kle4 said:
Being the right person to say 'I told you so' may not help try to lead the Tories away from no deal, which they are perilously close to.The_Taxman said:
He is a serious politician for serious times. He was brought back by Cameron when the going got rough and a politician with serious bottom was required. I know people dislike his position on Europe but given the last two years, his antipathy to Brexit has proved spot on. Prior to this he opposed the Iraq war and back in government in the 1990s his judgement on the economy was validated in setting the ground work for a very good era of economic performance.kle4 said:
Just too pro-EU to be accepted I should think, even though he is backing the exit deal (despite not even voting to trigger A50, showing he is no extremist remoaner).The_Taxman said:
Ken Clarke 4 PM on an interim basis. He will take the difficult decisions other politicians kick down the road. He is not frit!Cyclefree said:Ken Clarke putting the boot in very wittily - and savagely - into Johnson, JR-M and Davies.
"Boris couldn't run a whelk stall. The idea I'd follow him on anything serious is faintly ridiculous."0 -
And Labour chaps.Beverley_C said:
No doubt some leading Tory will be on the phone to make a few adjustments. Those forrin chaps will understand once things are explained to them .... LOUDLY..... AND..... SLOWLYgrabcocque said:Draft EUCO "addendum" on the WA here:
https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1072906967625150471
You should note none of this is by any means "legally binding", so Mrs May just lied to the faces of the 1922.0 -
She just can't help herself being a compulsive liar can she?
https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1072915160208158721
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/10729152251947008000 -
This is the draft that is being discussed at the council over the next two days so why not wait and see the final version. The secret is in the name 'draft'grabcocque said:
It won't. The EUCO draft iskle4 said:
So what was all the fuss about all this time then!?grabcocque said:
Prepare to be underwhelmed. It needs to sway the DUP, who hate to back down.
* not legally binding, only 'best-effort' commitments.
* makes no changes to the WA, and explicitly AFFIRMS the WA
* says nothing about Northern Ireland
* requires the UK govt to take the EU's word on trust.
It's an absolute catastrofuck that confirms all the worst expectations of, well, everyone about the futility of this effort.
https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/10729069676251504710 -
Mind you, the French adopted the guillotine so that all classes would face the same, and hopefully swift and relatively painless, form of capital punishment. Perhaps in a few months time we could borrow some from les gilets jaunes.JackW said:
No they're bloody not !!!!!!!!!kle4 said:
Well, MPs are the nobles of our day, really. Some are even practically hereditary!rpjs said:
Historically that punishment was reserved for nobles and higher.kle4 said:
Beheading would seem more appropriate if it is happening outside the Banqueting House.rpjs said:
They'll still be arguing whose fault it is when the Revolutionary Tribunal is tying the ropes around their necks outside the Banqueting House.0 -
Will wording changes make it any more legally binding?Big_G_NorthWales said:
This is the draft that is being discussed at the council over the next two days so why not wait and see the final version. The secret is in the name 'draft'grabcocque said:
It won't. The EUCO draft iskle4 said:
So what was all the fuss about all this time then!?grabcocque said:
Prepare to be underwhelmed. It needs to sway the DUP, who hate to back down.
* not legally binding, only 'best-effort' commitments.
* makes no changes to the WA, and explicitly AFFIRMS the WA
* says nothing about Northern Ireland
* requires the UK govt to take the EU's word on trust.
It's an absolute catastrofuck that confirms all the worst expectations of, well, everyone about the futility of this effort.
https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/10729069676251504710 -
EM: 210-82, just 25 unknown. SPIN was at 109 last I saw before it closed. Also ....
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1072914884977922048
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Interesting to see in that YouGov poll Labour supporters want her gone tonight unlike Tory voters who'd prefer her to stay.0
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TM spoke to them late afternoon - so when did Jenkyns speak to themPhilip_Thompson said:She just can't help herself being a compulsive liar can she?
https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1072915160208158721
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/10729152251947008000 -
I do admire how trusting you are, in a way. But this isn't how the EU works. This is significantly *more* than May is going to get. As Nadelli says, only section 1 is agreed. Section 5 is almost certainly doomed, and sections 2-4 still to be salami sliced by the EU27.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This is the draft that is being discussed at the council over the next two days so why not wait and see the final version. The secret is in the name 'draft'grabcocque said:
It won't. The EUCO draft iskle4 said:
So what was all the fuss about all this time then!?grabcocque said:
Prepare to be underwhelmed. It needs to sway the DUP, who hate to back down.
* not legally binding, only 'best-effort' commitments.
* makes no changes to the WA, and explicitly AFFIRMS the WA
* says nothing about Northern Ireland
* requires the UK govt to take the EU's word on trust.
It's an absolute catastrofuck that confirms all the worst expectations of, well, everyone about the futility of this effort.
https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/10729069676251504710 -
Of course not. I'm not sure how many more ways the EU can find to say THE WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT IS FINAL. May's obviously a bit slow.kle4 said:
Will wording changes make it any more legally binding?Big_G_NorthWales said:
This is the draft that is being discussed at the council over the next two days so why not wait and see the final version. The secret is in the name 'draft'grabcocque said:
It won't. The EUCO draft iskle4 said:
So what was all the fuss about all this time then!?grabcocque said:
Prepare to be underwhelmed. It needs to sway the DUP, who hate to back down.
* not legally binding, only 'best-effort' commitments.
* makes no changes to the WA, and explicitly AFFIRMS the WA
* says nothing about Northern Ireland
* requires the UK govt to take the EU's word on trust.
It's an absolute catastrofuck that confirms all the worst expectations of, well, everyone about the futility of this effort.
https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/10729069676251504710 -
Can I suggest my daughter's cat Cinnamon for PM. This is a cat who plans ahead, who can undertake complex tasks such as getting bags of treats from high level closed cupboards, who understands the consequences of his actions so that he proceeds to hide those bags of treats for later consumption when he is less likely to be troubled and who fully appreciates that when someone leaves a seat they leave some warmth that can be utilised if you move quickly.
I can’t recall when I last saw evidence of such clear thinking at Westminster. Possibly during the Coalition.0 -
It's not been her telling everyone is isn't final, that's the people seeking to oust her. So they can hardly get outraged at her pretending it can be amended.grabcocque said:
Of course not. I'm not sure how many more ways the EU can find to say THE WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT IS FINAL. May's obviously a bit slow.kle4 said:
Will wording changes make it any more legally binding?Big_G_NorthWales said:
This is the draft that is being discussed at the council over the next two days so why not wait and see the final version. The secret is in the name 'draft'grabcocque said:
It won't. The EUCO draft iskle4 said:
So what was all the fuss about all this time then!?grabcocque said:
Prepare to be underwhelmed. It needs to sway the DUP, who hate to back down.
* not legally binding, only 'best-effort' commitments.
* makes no changes to the WA, and explicitly AFFIRMS the WA
* says nothing about Northern Ireland
* requires the UK govt to take the EU's word on trust.
It's an absolute catastrofuck that confirms all the worst expectations of, well, everyone about the futility of this effort.
https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/10729069676251504710 -
Based on Beth Rigby's quote in order to have been informed that no progress was made today they'd have presumably had to have spoken to them after this afternoon's meeting.Big_G_NorthWales said:
TM spoke to them late afternoon - so when did Jenkyns speak to themPhilip_Thompson said:She just can't help herself being a compulsive liar can she?
https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1072915160208158721
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/10729152251947008000 -
I know where the power lies in my noble house as Mrs JackW is want to remind me !!kle4 said:
M'lord, I'm sorry, but it's where the power lies that matters.JackW said:
No they're bloody not !!!!!!!!!kle4 said:
Well, MPs are the nobles of our day, really. Some are even practically hereditary!rpjs said:
Historically that punishment was reserved for nobles and higher.kle4 said:
Beheading would seem more appropriate if it is happening outside the Banqueting House.rpjs said:
They'll still be arguing whose fault it is when the Revolutionary Tribunal is tying the ropes around their necks outside the Banqueting House.0 -
Quite right. Which makes the timing of the draft release an excercise of power in itself. They want Tory MPs to know the score when they vote.grabcocque said:
It won't. The EUCO draft iskle4 said:
So what was all the fuss about all this time then!?grabcocque said:
Prepare to be underwhelmed. It needs to sway the DUP, who hate to back down.
* not legally binding, only 'best-effort' commitments.
* makes no changes to the WA, and explicitly AFFIRMS the WA
* says nothing about Northern Ireland
* requires the UK govt to take the EU's word on trust.
* disallows any further clarifications and commitments.
It's an absolute catastrofuck that confirms all the worst expectations of, well, everyone about the futility of this effort.
https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/10729069676251504710 -
I am not being partisan. I ran my own businesses over 45 years, have served in various capacities from Chair to Secretary to Treasurer of several organisations including the PTA, Cub Scout Movement, Community Centre Committee, Round Table and Golf Club and at no time did I ever sign off a draft of anythinggrabcocque said:
I do admire how trusting you are, in a way. But this isn't how the EU works. This is significantly *more* than May is going to get. As Nadelli says, only section 1 is agreed. Section 5 is almost certainly doomed, and sections 2-4 still to be salami sliced by the EU27.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This is the draft that is being discussed at the council over the next two days so why not wait and see the final version. The secret is in the name 'draft'grabcocque said:
It won't. The EUCO draft iskle4 said:
So what was all the fuss about all this time then!?grabcocque said:
Prepare to be underwhelmed. It needs to sway the DUP, who hate to back down.
* not legally binding, only 'best-effort' commitments.
* makes no changes to the WA, and explicitly AFFIRMS the WA
* says nothing about Northern Ireland
* requires the UK govt to take the EU's word on trust.
It's an absolute catastrofuck that confirms all the worst expectations of, well, everyone about the futility of this effort.
https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/10729069676251504710 -
May is toxic and members know it. She was a disaster in the GE; her Brexit is woeful; she has totally abandoned domestic policy; she’s a control freak who has surrounded herself with yes-men and failed to build a consensus within her own party let alone the country; she has betrayed her own allies in the DUP and if she stays she’ll ensure end up with a Corbyn Gov. MPs should do their duty by their constituents and ditch her.0
-
Sorry - overqualified.DavidL said:Can I suggest my daughter's cat Cinnamon for PM. This is a cat who plans ahead, who can undertake complex tasks such as getting bags of treats from high level closed cupboards, who understands the consequences of his actions so that he proceeds to hide those bags of treats for later consumption when he is less likely to be troubled and who fully appreciates that when someone leaves a seat they leave some warmth that can be utilised if you move quickly.
I can’t recall when I last saw evidence of such clear thinking at Westminster. Possibly during the Coalition.
And besides, Cinnamon sounds forrin. Never do old boy. Wrong sort, eh what?0 -
Off topic: Transpennine fun #145.
Choice at Manchester of 2 Newcastle bound trains that arrived on adjacent platforms within 1 minute of each other. I caught the first arrival rather than the earlier scheduled, obviously the other one then got first signals.
Now been told this train is terminating at Stalybridge due to a bird strike.
Sort of glad I didn't place any bets today.0 -
In the EU, the conclusions are written before the meeting.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This is the draft that is being discussed at the council over the next two days so why not wait and see the final version. The secret is in the name 'draft'grabcocque said:
It won't. The EUCO draft iskle4 said:
So what was all the fuss about all this time then!?grabcocque said:
Prepare to be underwhelmed. It needs to sway the DUP, who hate to back down.
* not legally binding, only 'best-effort' commitments.
* makes no changes to the WA, and explicitly AFFIRMS the WA
* says nothing about Northern Ireland
* requires the UK govt to take the EU's word on trust.
It's an absolute catastrofuck that confirms all the worst expectations of, well, everyone about the futility of this effort.
https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/10729069676251504710 -
That is trusting sources that suit your narrative but others could call it fake newsPhilip_Thompson said:
Based on Beth Rigby's quote in order to have been informed that no progress was made today they'd have presumably had to have spoken to them after this afternoon's meeting.Big_G_NorthWales said:
TM spoke to them late afternoon - so when did Jenkyns speak to themPhilip_Thompson said:She just can't help herself being a compulsive liar can she?
https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1072915160208158721
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/10729152251947008000 -
So in summary, May's latest European jaunt has achieved nothing, again ; her stance shows no sign of achieving any negotiated goal at home or abroad, in the future ; business support is draining away from her party ; and a solid majority of Tory MPs are going to give her their resounding support tonight.0
-
And any Tory MPs swayed by this to vote to keep May must still believe in Father Christmas.grabcocque said:
Of course not. I'm not sure how many more ways the EU can find to say THE WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT IS FINAL. May's obviously a bit slow.kle4 said:
Will wording changes make it any more legally binding?Big_G_NorthWales said:
This is the draft that is being discussed at the council over the next two days so why not wait and see the final version. The secret is in the name 'draft'grabcocque said:
It won't. The EUCO draft iskle4 said:
So what was all the fuss about all this time then!?grabcocque said:
Prepare to be underwhelmed. It needs to sway the DUP, who hate to back down.
* not legally binding, only 'best-effort' commitments.
* makes no changes to the WA, and explicitly AFFIRMS the WA
* says nothing about Northern Ireland
* requires the UK govt to take the EU's word on trust.
It's an absolute catastrofuck that confirms all the worst expectations of, well, everyone about the futility of this effort.
https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/10729069676251504710 -
Bayrou only gained some approval recently because he criticized Macron. He remains less popular than Sarkozy (32) and Juppé (37)IanB2 said:
So despite Macro the centre still leads the way....if only we had such good sense.AndyJS said:O/T
"Europe Elects
@EuropeElects
22m22 minutes ago
France, Ipsos poll:
Approval ratings (president+party leaders)
Bayrou (MoDem-ALDE): 28%
Le Pen (RN-ENF): 27%
Mélenchon (FI-LEFT): 26% (+2)
Dupont-Aignan (DLF-EFDD): 25% (+6)
Hamon (G.s.-S&D): 22% (-5)
Macron (LREM-ALDE): 20% (-6)
Field work: 7/12/18 – 8/12/18
Sample size: 971"
The striking fact is the level of hostility towards Macron and the precipitous drop since the spring (he was at 40% in April
Amazingly, even Fillon (23), whose candidacy implosed last year and has left politics, is now more popular than Macron (20).
Only his unknown or incompetent ministers are polling lower than him, except of cours the hapless Wauquiez (15!), leader of what remains of the non-macronist right and the totally unknown Faure (12), leader of the moribund Socialist party.0 -
It is not going to happen - tonight is their one and only chanceAmpfieldAndy said:May is toxic and members know it. She was a disaster in the GE; her Brexit is woeful; she has totally abandoned domestic policy; she’s a control freak who has surrounded herself with yes-men and failed to build a consensus within her own party let alone the country; she has betrayed her own allies in the DUP and if she stays she’ll ensure end up with a Corbyn Gov. MPs should do their duty by their constituents and ditch her.
0 -
You've done this just to wind me up haven't you?0
-
That is true of most meetings.Donny43 said:
In the EU, the conclusions are written before the meeting.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This is the draft that is being discussed at the council over the next two days so why not wait and see the final version. The secret is in the name 'draft'grabcocque said:
It won't. The EUCO draft iskle4 said:
So what was all the fuss about all this time then!?grabcocque said:
Prepare to be underwhelmed. It needs to sway the DUP, who hate to back down.
* not legally binding, only 'best-effort' commitments.
* makes no changes to the WA, and explicitly AFFIRMS the WA
* says nothing about Northern Ireland
* requires the UK govt to take the EU's word on trust.
It's an absolute catastrofuck that confirms all the worst expectations of, well, everyone about the futility of this effort.
https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/10729069676251504710 -
Are Arlene Foster and the BBC fake news?Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is trusting sources that suit your narrative but others could call it fake newsPhilip_Thompson said:
Based on Beth Rigby's quote in order to have been informed that no progress was made today they'd have presumably had to have spoken to them after this afternoon's meeting.Big_G_NorthWales said:
TM spoke to them late afternoon - so when did Jenkyns speak to themPhilip_Thompson said:She just can't help herself being a compulsive liar can she?
https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1072915160208158721
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1072915225194700800
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-46533245
17:55
She says they emphasised their position that they were "not seeking assurances or promises" but "fundamental legal text changes".
Mrs Foster adds: "The prime minister has known our position. We have been consistent which is why it is so frustrating that our warnings about the backstop have not been heeded.
"The DUP wants a sensible deal which our MPs can support in the House. Over the coming weeks, we will continue to work towards that.
"Unionism in Northern Ireland and across the House of Commons has rightly stood against this withdrawal agreement. It should be utterly unacceptable to any unionist. For Northern Ireland traders to be expected to treat GB as a third country is ridiculous and was never going to receive support in Parliament.”0 -
Why wouldn’t they? Have you not seen Miracle on 34th Street?MarqueeMark said:
And any Tory MPs swayed by this to vote to keep May must still believe in Father Christmas.grabcocque said:
Of course not. I'm not sure how many more ways the EU can find to say THE WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT IS FINAL. May's obviously a bit slow.kle4 said:
Will wording changes make it any more legally binding?Big_G_NorthWales said:
This is the draft that is being discussed at the council over the next two days so why not wait and see the final version. The secret is in the name 'draft'grabcocque said:
It won't. The EUCO draft iskle4 said:
So what was all the fuss about all this time then!?grabcocque said:
Prepare to be underwhelmed. It needs to sway the DUP, who hate to back down.
* not legally binding, only 'best-effort' commitments.
* makes no changes to the WA, and explicitly AFFIRMS the WA
* says nothing about Northern Ireland
* requires the UK govt to take the EU's word on trust.
It's an absolute catastrofuck that confirms all the worst expectations of, well, everyone about the futility of this effort.
https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/10729069676251504710 -
The Apprentice episode might be cancelled...that be sure to piss a lot of people off.0
-
They publish everything. Including what the decisions will be. It's very helpful.Donny43 said:
In the EU, the conclusions are written before the meeting.Big_G_NorthWales said:
This is the draft that is being discussed at the council over the next two days so why not wait and see the final version. The secret is in the name 'draft'grabcocque said:
It won't. The EUCO draft iskle4 said:
So what was all the fuss about all this time then!?grabcocque said:
Prepare to be underwhelmed. It needs to sway the DUP, who hate to back down.
* not legally binding, only 'best-effort' commitments.
* makes no changes to the WA, and explicitly AFFIRMS the WA
* says nothing about Northern Ireland
* requires the UK govt to take the EU's word on trust.
It's an absolute catastrofuck that confirms all the worst expectations of, well, everyone about the futility of this effort.
https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/10729069676251504710 -
The problem for the Tories is the ERG, Johnson and Rees-Mogg are even more Toxic. The Tories are driving toward a brick wall whatever they do.AmpfieldAndy said:May is toxic and members know it. She was a disaster in the GE; her Brexit is woeful; she has totally abandoned domestic policy; she’s a control freak who has surrounded herself with yes-men and failed to build a consensus within her own party let alone the country; she has betrayed her own allies in the DUP and if she stays she’ll ensure end up with a Corbyn Gov. MPs should do their duty by their constituents and ditch her.
On a separate point, why do you go on about Corbyn being a threat to the economy yet deny a Hard Brexit would not be a problem? In reality both are a serious economic threat!0 -
Since the consensus is that she's going to win with room to spare, I'm going to predict that they vote her out.kle4 said:The alternative being? It's not rocket science, if they keep her on she is highly likely to lead them in the next election if it happens ahead of schedule (which seems very likely) because there'd be no way to get a new leader in place.
She's a weak leader of an incompetent Government. They saddle themselves with her now and they're stuck with her in the event of a snap election, which has to be factored in as a distinct possibility. Especially given the extreme tension between her stubborn commitment to her EU deal and her relationship with the DUP, and also the non-negligible possibility that some of the hotter sort of Brexiteers might resign from the party and help no confidence the Government if she tries to do an even softer deal that is not to their liking.
There's doubtless no shortage of MPs (for which, read virtually all of them) who think they could do a better job, and amongst those with no realistic leadership ambitions there could still be thoughts of propelling a favoured candidate into position, and of their own survival in the event of another election taking place. True, some MPs may also be worried that they'll end up with someone even worse, but the Parliamentary Conservative Party has the power to filter candidates before they go off to the membership, and the ERG on its own doesn't have anywhere close to the number of votes needed to guarantee a candidate makes the run-off. One would therefore assume that the Tory Corbyn Prevention Mechanism will do its job, and there is no realistic prospect of someone like JRM or Boris getting through.
The main impulse staying the hands of many MPs will presumably be the fear that the eventual winner of the contest might end up having to countenance No Deal to secure the backing of party members. However, if they aren't prepared to break with their party and form a compact with Opposition MPs to avert Brexit, and they can't or won't back either the Deal or Remain because of their aforementioned difficulties with the DUP and their own Brexit ultras (not to mention the 2017 manifesto,) then they are frankly better off with at least having some direction - any direction - to go in as a single unit, even if they think it is the wrong one, than to go on being rudderless and drifting. Because having a lemon sat uselessly in Downing St whilst the clock runs down would just lead them to No Deal by default anyway.
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.
.
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I know, I know. She's probably going to pick up about 250 endorsements and romp to victory now, isn't she? This is why I normally only bet once-a-year on the Grand National (although I have managed to get it right occasionally: Neptune Collonges was a nice little earner.)0 -
The third paragraph makes my pointPhilip_Thompson said:
Are Arlene Foster and the BBC fake news?Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is trusting sources that suit your narrative but others could call it fake newsPhilip_Thompson said:
Based on Beth Rigby's quote in order to have been informed that no progress was made today they'd have presumably had to have spoken to them after this afternoon's meeting.Big_G_NorthWales said:
TM spoke to them late afternoon - so when did Jenkyns speak to themPhilip_Thompson said:She just can't help herself being a compulsive liar can she?
https://twitter.com/andreajenkyns/status/1072915160208158721
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1072915225194700800
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-46533245
17:55
She says they emphasised their position that they were "not seeking assurances or promises" but "fundamental legal text changes".
Mrs Foster adds: "The prime minister has known our position. We have been consistent which is why it is so frustrating that our warnings about the backstop have not been heeded.
"The DUP wants a sensible deal which our MPs can support in the House. Over the coming weeks, we will continue to work towards that.
"Unionism in Northern Ireland and across the House of Commons has rightly stood against this withdrawal agreement. It should be utterly unacceptable to any unionist. For Northern Ireland traders to be expected to treat GB as a third country is ridiculous and was never going to receive support in Parliament.”0 -
With the woeful quality of the candidates, cancelling it is a blessing. We don't need to see them on screen ever again.FrancisUrquhart said:The Apprentice episode might be cancelled...that be sure to piss a lot of people off.
0 -
Indeed they areThe_Taxman said:
The problem for the Tories is the ERG, Johnson and Rees-Mogg are even more Toxic. The Tories are driving toward a brick wall whatever they do.AmpfieldAndy said:May is toxic and members know it. She was a disaster in the GE; her Brexit is woeful; she has totally abandoned domestic policy; she’s a control freak who has surrounded herself with yes-men and failed to build a consensus within her own party let alone the country; she has betrayed her own allies in the DUP and if she stays she’ll ensure end up with a Corbyn Gov. MPs should do their duty by their constituents and ditch her.
On a separate point, why do you go on about Corbyn being a threat to the economy yet deny a Hard Brexit would not be a problem? In reality both are a serious economic threat!0 -
Hard Brexiteers model there vision of the nation on Canada.The_Taxman said:
The problem for the Tories is the ERG, Johnson and Rees-Mogg are even more Toxic. The Tories are driving toward a brick wall whatever they do.AmpfieldAndy said:May is toxic and members know it. She was a disaster in the GE; her Brexit is woeful; she has totally abandoned domestic policy; she’s a control freak who has surrounded herself with yes-men and failed to build a consensus within her own party let alone the country; she has betrayed her own allies in the DUP and if she stays she’ll ensure end up with a Corbyn Gov. MPs should do their duty by their constituents and ditch her.
On a separate point, why do you go on about Corbyn being a threat to the economy yet deny a Hard Brexit would not be a problem? In reality both are a serious economic threat!
Corbyn models his vision of the nation on Venezuela.
Only one is a serious economic threat.0 -
May's premiership might have hit the buffers rather quickly, but these guys are doing even worse...
Eleven Sports, a streaming service that aimed to become the "Netflix of sport", is at risk of closure after only four months, following its failure to secure distribution via established pay-TV operators and amid concern over mounting losses.
The Daily Telegraph has learnt that Eleven Sports is considering pulling the plug on its UK operation after the mixed martial arts competition UFC triggered an exit clause on its exclusive deal, which was due to begin in January.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/12/12/netflix-sport-streaming-service-eleven-sports-risk-closure/0 -
Not another contest with woeful candidates, surely?oxfordsimon said:
With the woeful quality of the candidates, cancelling it is a blessing. We don't need to see them on screen ever again.FrancisUrquhart said:The Apprentice episode might be cancelled...that be sure to piss a lot of people off.
0 -
The public endorsements have me questioning my own prediction that she will lose, but it would be shocking to me if she didn't. Another election is very likely, particularly if her deal is approved, and they won't want her leading them then. And if her deal is, as is likely, not passed, then what is she even there for? Keeping her only delays further hard choices they need to make.Black_Rook said:
Since the consensus is that she's going to win with room to spare, I'm going to predict that they vote her out.kle4 said:The alternative being? It's not rocket science, if they keep her on she is highly likely to lead them in the next election if it happens ahead of schedule (which seems very likely) because there'd be no way to get a new leader in place.
0
This discussion has been closed.