politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If punters risking their cash have got this right TMay’s safe
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*le gasp*AndyJS said:We know this much: if Mrs May loses tonight, it'll mean a significant number of Tory MPs have been lying through their teeth.
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Good point!TheScreamingEagles said:You have to wonder what Cohen gave on Trump to Mueller to get his sentenced reduced so much.
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The prospect of spending 30 years in a supermax must have looked unappealing.TheScreamingEagles said:You have to wonder what Cohen gave on Trump to Mueller to get his sentenced reduced so much.
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Not to Manafort, apparently. He seems to have been practically gagging for it.Pulpstar said:
The prospect of spending 30 years in a supermax must have looked unappealing.TheScreamingEagles said:You have to wonder what Cohen gave on Trump to Mueller to get his sentenced reduced so much.
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It was of course MacMillan making the speech at the UK when Khrushchev as a spectator banged his shoe on the desk. MacMillan calmly asked for a translation - brilliant and very British.JackW said:
Are we to assume a Khrushchev-esque leopard shoe banging speech from Mrs May at the 1922 Committee?ReggieCide said:
I presume the intention is the opposite of a KhrushchevScott_P said:0 -
Bill Cash and David Davis have just stormed out of May's speech to the 1922.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯0 -
Good....grabcocque said:Bill Cash and David Davis have just stormed out of May's speech to the 1922.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯0 -
That is my view too. She will seek to force a binary choice between leave with the deal or leave without one. I am assuming that the deal will win that contest.OblitusSumMe said:The key thing that has changed in my view with Theresa May pulling the vote on the deal is that it shows she does not want to pivot from the deal to another position.
If she was prepared to pivot to a referendum, or whatever, then she would have held the vote, lost it and then either pivoted or waited for the Commons to tell her exactly how to pivot. Instead she delayed the vote. The purpose of delaying the vote is to use the pressure of time, and the evidence that the EU really are wedded to the backstop, to convince doubters to back the deal.
This means that anyone who wants neither the deal, or no deal, has to change the identity of the Prime Minister to an individual who is opposed to both those outcomes. Good luck with that!
But perhaps I'm wrong. Perhaps we leave with no deal. But if that is likely why would the ERG be wanting rid of her?0 -
No, all she has to do is wait. The no deal "button" was pushed 21 months ago, it's the override switch that would need to be flipped now.grabcocque said:
No, because of the ECJ ruling, May can revoke A50 right up until the 28th March.kinabalu said:
I agree. The party line is to oppose and that will not change.TheJezziah said:Labour won't be blackmailed to vote for the deal.
But do you not think that if it goes to the wire and if they see that article 50 extension and 2nd ref is not happening, so the choice is leave 29/3 with TMs deal or leave 29/3 with no deal, then in that scenario there will be Labour MPs who are willing to go against the leadership?
May has to CHOOSE to press that No Deal button.0 -
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The Cat is now back, a bit spaced out but otherwise OK and looking forward to running the country once he has had his special post-op dinner and a good sleep.Beverley_C said:
Yes. We already agreed this afternoon that a piece of bacon rind I took out of my kicthen sink's drain is the next DexEU SoS. Cyclefree and I drew up the Cabinet positions earlier and they are upthread.David_Evershed said:
Time for a different DEXEU Secretary of State?MarqueeMark said:If May survives - significant Cabinet reshuffle?
There is still some debate about the 18 goldfish however, but Charles is looking into the fish tank....
I too am looking forward to managing his PM's salary since there is an enormous hole in my savings caused by the vet's bill.
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1s9OvRyKHB_iXAozPvDLLhCAY_jEpMScKDIn-cXAHAHY/edit#gid=0
210/82, late declarations are now coming in.0 -
Incidentally, my current guess for votes against May is 120.0
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He's done an excellent job with the spreadsheet, but it does rely on an awful lot of assumptions about how some of the MPs will vote.Sean_F said:
Matt Singh's spreadsheet is more encouraging for her. IMO, she'll get past 200.grabcocque said:
Seems like a PB consensus is emerging. May will probably win, but it's gonna be a lot closer than her inveterate groupies in the BBC are currently busily ramping.Black_Rook said:
The Sky News count of declarations of support stands at 171. The total number of eligible voters is now 317, with two suspended MPs having had the whip restored. That means the winning post is 159.Harris_Tweed said:I’m not sure I’d give May half the undeclared MPs. There must surely be a greater propensity to keep shtum among those opposed?
If most of them are against and a few more are lying, she’ll be badly holed at best.
One would've thought that most of the undeclared are against May and some of the supporters will be lying as well, so the actual result could well be close. But this is all just complete guesswork, of course. We'll obviously know better in a few hours' time.0 -
WILL.OF.THE.PEOPLE.Scott_P said:0 -
When have polls rather than votes ever decided any political decision ?TheScreamingEagles said:
WILL.OF.THE.PEOPLE.Scott_P said:0 -
I'm gonna go with:
May 185
NC 130
Just because I think there's a lot of snivelling dishonest fuckfaces in the parliamentary party who have no compunction about professing their support and admiration publicly and then turning on her immediately in private.
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Well it is reaffirming the vote of 2017 which is the will of the people.AmpfieldAndy said:
When have polls rather than votes ever decided any political decision ?TheScreamingEagles said:
WILL.OF.THE.PEOPLE.Scott_P said:0 -
Unless that election is in the next few months?Scott_P said:0 -
Scotland's finance secretary has said he will not pass on a tax break for higher earners that was announced by the Chancellor in his UK budget.
The Conservatives claimed that higher earners were "being punished in the SNP's Scotland," with people earning £50,000 in Scotland paying about £1,500 more a year than their counterparts south of the border.
The Tories also said people earning £40,000 in Scotland will be £130 a year worse off than their equivalents elsewhere in the UK, increasing to a gap of nearly £500 a year for those on £45,000.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-465229680 -
Might as well dump her now then and get it over with.Scott_P said:
This does not suggest she is confident of a big win.0 -
As good a reason as any to put them at the top of the expulsion list.grabcocque said:Bill Cash and David Davis have just stormed out of May's speech to the 1922.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯0 -
To borrow from the wider Brexit narrative, that would be an aspiration (i.e. worthless guff) and not a legally-binding commitment, now wouldn't it?Scott_P said:0 -
The large majority are backed up by MP's statements.AndyJS said:
He's done an excellent job with the spreadsheet, but it does rely on an awful lot of assumptions about how some of the MPs will vote.Sean_F said:
Matt Singh's spreadsheet is more encouraging for her. IMO, she'll get past 200.grabcocque said:
Seems like a PB consensus is emerging. May will probably win, but it's gonna be a lot closer than her inveterate groupies in the BBC are currently busily ramping.Black_Rook said:
The Sky News count of declarations of support stands at 171. The total number of eligible voters is now 317, with two suspended MPs having had the whip restored. That means the winning post is 159.Harris_Tweed said:I’m not sure I’d give May half the undeclared MPs. There must surely be a greater propensity to keep shtum among those opposed?
If most of them are against and a few more are lying, she’ll be badly holed at best.
One would've thought that most of the undeclared are against May and some of the supporters will be lying as well, so the actual result could well be close. But this is all just complete guesswork, of course. We'll obviously know better in a few hours' time.0 -
Under the ECJ ruling May needs a vote in parliament (or similar) to revoke A50.Donny43 said:
No, all she has to do is wait. The no deal "button" was pushed 21 months ago, it's the override switch that would need to be flipped now.grabcocque said:
No, because of the ECJ ruling, May can revoke A50 right up until the 28th March.kinabalu said:
I agree. The party line is to oppose and that will not change.TheJezziah said:Labour won't be blackmailed to vote for the deal.
But do you not think that if it goes to the wire and if they see that article 50 extension and 2nd ref is not happening, so the choice is leave 29/3 with TMs deal or leave 29/3 with no deal, then in that scenario there will be Labour MPs who are willing to go against the leadership?
May has to CHOOSE to press that No Deal button.0 -
May survives?0
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Interestingly, there has just been one of the biggest gaps between homicides in a long time: there was a homicide on 24 November, and then another today. When was the last time there were 19 days between homicides?Sean_F said:
Still quite a long way below the numbers for the previous decade though.FrancisUrquhart said:The number of killings in London has reached the highest number for a decade.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-46540182
(Knives, knives, knives.)
Also, these numbers need to be calibrated to the number of people in London. Otherwise, they're meaningless.0 -
Perhaps she is planning to be the Tory human shield for when she revokes Art 50. May + Lab + Tory Remainers........anothernick said:
Might as well dump her now then and get it over with.Scott_P said:
This does not suggest she is confident of a big win.0 -
That does seem insurmountable. I think my outcome (deal passes) relies on Mrs May being prepared to leave with no deal if necessary rather than cave in to the remain side. If I have that wrong then my outcome is wrong. And come to think of it perhaps I do have it wrong because if the ERG shared it they would not be trying to ditch her. Then again if the ERG are as thick as reputed then the fact that I disagree with them on this means that I am most probably right. Hall of mirrors it really is.TheJezziah said:I'm struggling to say for sure where it ends up (I may also be transferring my own stubbornness) but in terms of Labour you aren't going to get big numbers without the party going for it IMO. You could pick of a few from Labour in a close run thing. Without significant numbers of no dealers backing the deal on the Tory benches suddenly I can't see Labour providing the kind of numbers needed.
I guess you have the Anti May's dealers in the Tories as holding mostly and May still needing over 100 votes from other parties for it to progress?0 -
With her deal facing certain defeat, the backstop unlikely to change enough to satisfy the DUP who will therefore side with Labour in a VNOC, that should be enough to for e her out. Hope so.Morris_Dancer said:Incidentally, my current guess for votes against May is 120.
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Expectations Dear Boy, Expectations.grabcocque said:
Under 200 and things look ropey for her. Let's see what sweeties she promises her backbenchers not to do the dirty.Sean_F said:
Matt Singh's spreadsheet is more encouraging for her. IMO, she'll get past 200.grabcocque said:
Seems like a PB consensus is emerging. May will probably win, but it's gonna be a lot closer than her inveterate groupies in the BBC are currently busily ramping.Black_Rook said:
The Sky News count of declarations of support stands at 171. The total number of eligible voters is now 317, with two suspended MPs having had the whip restored. That means the winning post is 159.Harris_Tweed said:I’m not sure I’d give May half the undeclared MPs. There must surely be a greater propensity to keep shtum among those opposed?
If most of them are against and a few more are lying, she’ll be badly holed at best.
One would've thought that most of the undeclared are against May and some of the supporters will be lying as well, so the actual result could well be close. But this is all just complete guesswork, of course. We'll obviously know better in a few hours' time.0 -
Apparently people are crying in the room.
I TOTALLY AND UTTERLY REJECT YOUR EXPRESSIONS OF SORROW
BE UNDER NO ILLUSION THESE ARE CROCODILE TEARS YE ARE CRYING0 -
Why would cabinet ministers be crying?0
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This is going to be more anti-climatic than the finale of I'm a Celeb.0
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I think the betting markets are being driven by the news, which are being driven by the statements of support.Sean_F said:
The large majority are backed up by MP's statements.AndyJS said:
He's done an excellent job with the spreadsheet, but it does rely on an awful lot of assumptions about how some of the MPs will vote.Sean_F said:
Matt Singh's spreadsheet is more encouraging for her. IMO, she'll get past 200.grabcocque said:
Seems like a PB consensus is emerging. May will probably win, but it's gonna be a lot closer than her inveterate groupies in the BBC are currently busily ramping.Black_Rook said:
The Sky News count of declarations of support stands at 171. The total number of eligible voters is now 317, with two suspended MPs having had the whip restored. That means the winning post is 159.Harris_Tweed said:I’m not sure I’d give May half the undeclared MPs. There must surely be a greater propensity to keep shtum among those opposed?
If most of them are against and a few more are lying, she’ll be badly holed at best.
One would've thought that most of the undeclared are against May and some of the supporters will be lying as well, so the actual result could well be close. But this is all just complete guesswork, of course. We'll obviously know better in a few hours' time.
Reading the runes, I'm very happy with my 7/1.0 -
Let's say May gets her Brexit through and her polling is really high with the general public for navigating us through these tricky waters, does she still go?0
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She lost her majority in 2016 and only continues with the support of the DUP who won’t support her deal or her in a VNOC unless the backstop goes.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well it is reaffirming the vote of 2017 which is the will of the people.AmpfieldAndy said:
When have polls rather than votes ever decided any political decision ?TheScreamingEagles said:
WILL.OF.THE.PEOPLE.Scott_P said:0 -
The no-deal contingency planning is going to be stepping up a gear both in Whitehall and in in Brussels before Christmas. That will be the dominant mood music next week.0
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EM: 208-81. Looking at the 28 unknowns, an even split isn't unreasonable.
SPIN 110 rebels, implies 15 C liars (Edit: now 112 >> 17 liars)0 -
She must safe if people are crying.grabcocque said:Apparently people are crying in the room.
I TOTALLY AND UTTERLY REJECT YOUR EXPRESSIONS OF SORROW
BE UNDER NO ILLUSION THESE ARE CROCODILE TEARS YE ARE CRYING0 -
Mr. Urquhart, I'm unfamiliar with that.
Will it be as anti-climatic as the end to the reboot of Battlestar Galactica?0 -
Well if they believe her this time , gullible does not do it justice.Scott_P said:0 -
Quandary over where to set the ' election night ' party refreshments and decor. It's partly that I expect to be disappointed by the result and partly I've used this week's alcohol budget. I've gone with a light buffet , no booze and about half the normal number of candles. I thought you should share my pain.0
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I reckon the number of votes against May will be about 90. I also reckon that even if she only wins by 1 vote, she won't resign until after Brexit Day at the earliest, unless she's overtaken by events.
It's reported that she's guaranteeing that she'll step down before the next election. Unfortunately for her and the Tories, there is of course a scenario whereby a general election is forced within the next few months. So she may end up leading her party into an election anyway.0 -
I'll have cheddar cheese and pineapple on a stick.grabcocque said:Apparently people are crying in the room.
I TOTALLY AND UTTERLY REJECT YOUR EXPRESSIONS OF SORROW
BE UNDER NO ILLUSION THESE ARE CROCODILE TEARS YE ARE CRYING0 -
No Deal = Deaths of people due to a meds shortage.Gallowgate said:Why would cabinet ministers be crying?
Do you want that on your conscience?
The fact it would almost certainly lead to a Corbyn government and the Tories out of a generation is another kicker.0 -
I think there's likely to be a huge spike in the numbers around a certain committee room in Westminster as the backstabbers wield their knives ....rcs1000 said:
Interestingly, there has just been one of the biggest gaps between homicides in a long time: there was a homicide on 24 November, and then another today. When was the last time there were 19 days between homicides?Sean_F said:
Still quite a long way below the numbers for the previous decade though.FrancisUrquhart said:The number of killings in London has reached the highest number for a decade.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-46540182
(Knives, knives, knives.)
Also, these numbers need to be calibrated to the number of people in London. Otherwise, they're meaningless.0 -
At her declaration she will not lead into the next GE (Sky)Gallowgate said:Why would cabinet ministers be crying?
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Emotions Dear Boy, Emotions.Gallowgate said:Why would cabinet ministers be crying?
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I understand when the referal returns to the Inner House in Edinburgh the applicants are going to ask the Scottish Courts to rule on what would need to happen to revoke A50 at our end. Ie us it a prerogative power or does it need primary legislation. The legal arguments are a bit different to invocation and doubtless it will end up in the Supreme Court. Though any government could just gold plate it with primary legislation anyway in advance of a ruling.David_Evershed said:
Under the ECJ ruling May needs a vote in parliament (or similar) to revoke A50.Donny43 said:
No, all she has to do is wait. The no deal "button" was pushed 21 months ago, it's the override switch that would need to be flipped now.grabcocque said:
No, because of the ECJ ruling, May can revoke A50 right up until the 28th March.kinabalu said:
I agree. The party line is to oppose and that will not change.TheJezziah said:Labour won't be blackmailed to vote for the deal.
But do you not think that if it goes to the wire and if they see that article 50 extension and 2nd ref is not happening, so the choice is leave 29/3 with TMs deal or leave 29/3 with no deal, then in that scenario there will be Labour MPs who are willing to go against the leadership?
May has to CHOOSE to press that No Deal button.0 -
Not scary at all...
"Information Collectors" are paid by the government to go around and monitor behaviour of citizens.
China’s "Social Credit System" Can Create More Than Just Public Shaming
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkw15LkZ_Kw0 -
It's going to need primary legislation because of the provisions of the Withdrawal Act.YellowSubmarine said:
I understand when the referal returns to the Inner House in Edinburgh the applicants are going to ask the Scottish Courts to rule on what would need to happen to revoke A50 at our end. Ie us it a prerogative power or does it need primary legislation. The legal arguments are a bit different to invocation and doubtless it will end up in the Supreme Court. Though any government could just gold plate it with primary legislation anyway in advance of a ruling.David_Evershed said:
Under the ECJ ruling May needs a vote in parliament (or similar) to revoke A50.Donny43 said:
No, all she has to do is wait. The no deal "button" was pushed 21 months ago, it's the override switch that would need to be flipped now.grabcocque said:
No, because of the ECJ ruling, May can revoke A50 right up until the 28th March.kinabalu said:
I agree. The party line is to oppose and that will not change.TheJezziah said:Labour won't be blackmailed to vote for the deal.
But do you not think that if it goes to the wire and if they see that article 50 extension and 2nd ref is not happening, so the choice is leave 29/3 with TMs deal or leave 29/3 with no deal, then in that scenario there will be Labour MPs who are willing to go against the leadership?
May has to CHOOSE to press that No Deal button.0 -
You are contracdicting yourself. If the deal falls DUP back HMGAmpfieldAndy said:
With her deal facing certain defeat, the backstop unlikely to change enough to satisfy the DUP who will therefore side with Labour in a VNOC, that should be enough to for e her out. Hope so.Morris_Dancer said:Incidentally, my current guess for votes against May is 120.
You really are desperate to see her gone but it looks like she is not going to oblige0 -
She really is crap at politics...TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
They had their fingers in the desk when the whips started banging them.Gallowgate said:Why would cabinet ministers be crying?
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You should tell the DUP that; it’ll be a surprise to them.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You are contracdicting yourself. If the deal falls DUP back HMGAmpfieldAndy said:
With her deal facing certain defeat, the backstop unlikely to change enough to satisfy the DUP who will therefore side with Labour in a VNOC, that should be enough to for e her out. Hope so.Morris_Dancer said:Incidentally, my current guess for votes against May is 120.
You really are desperate to see her gone but it looks like she is not going to oblige
Everyone in their right mind should want her out. If she stays a Corbyn Gov is a racing certainty. Maybe that’s what you want but I don’t.0 -
But in the short term she can certainly tell the ERG to do one. Who knows what she might do do when she no longer has to pander to that bunch of losers. She might even fancy another run through a cornfield. She strikes me as a women who will much enjoy sticking it to the ERG.Philip_Thompson said:I wonder whether the rebels conceding defeat now may be akin to Farage conceding defeat on the night of the referendum?
Either way I doubt May will make it to the 12 month's from today she's supposedly safe for if she does win.0 -
Not often im closer to the SNP than the Tories but think I am here.FrancisUrquhart said:Scotland's finance secretary has said he will not pass on a tax break for higher earners that was announced by the Chancellor in his UK budget.
The Conservatives claimed that higher earners were "being punished in the SNP's Scotland," with people earning £50,000 in Scotland paying about £1,500 more a year than their counterparts south of the border.
The Tories also said people earning £40,000 in Scotland will be £130 a year worse off than their equivalents elsewhere in the UK, increasing to a gap of nearly £500 a year for those on £45,000.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-465229680 -
I've asked Our Lady of Lewisham to intercede for a May 52% win 😁Scott_P said:
52:48 is the magic numbergrabcocque said:Seems like a PB consensus is emerging. May will probably win, but it's gonna be a lot closer than her inveterate groupies in the BBC are currently busily ramping.
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The reassertion of Confucianism .FrancisUrquhart said:Not scary at all...
"Information Collectors" are paid by the government to go around and monitor behaviour of citizens.
China’s "Social Credit System" Can Create More Than Just Public Shaming
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkw15LkZ_Kw
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What is the point of sticking with May if you don't support her deal? Everyone who has gone on the record as supporting TM tonight should be required to vote for her deal in the HoC.0
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By 2020, China will track, rate and reward all their citizens, with every personal interaction potentially impacting your social credit score.0
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Is this also the source for the 'ERG are furious because they were told the vote was on Monday' tweet? I don't believe the 'kill zone' thing until I hear an ERG person say it either. I think we're being manipulated.Scott_P said:The ERG have gone off prematurely...
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/10728717938017894400 -
You are in denial. If the deal falls the DUP will support HMG. It is only if the deal passes the DUP may vote with labourAmpfieldAndy said:
You should tell the DUP that; it’ll be a surprise to them.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You are contracdicting yourself. If the deal falls DUP back HMGAmpfieldAndy said:
With her deal facing certain defeat, the backstop unlikely to change enough to satisfy the DUP who will therefore side with Labour in a VNOC, that should be enough to for e her out. Hope so.Morris_Dancer said:Incidentally, my current guess for votes against May is 120.
You really are desperate to see her gone but it looks like she is not going to oblige
Everyone in their right mind should want her out. If she stays a Corbyn Gov is a racing certainty. Maybe that’s what you want but I don’t.
I believe at this moment in time TM is the politician the Country wants to lead Brexit and this is overwhelmingly confirmed by polls0 -
Thanks. I hadn't picked up it was that definitive.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's going to need primary legislation because of the provisions of the Withdrawal Act.YellowSubmarine said:
I understand when the referal returns to the Inner House in Edinburgh the applicants are going to ask the Scottish Courts to rule on what would need to happen to revoke A50 at our end. Ie us it a prerogative power or does it need primary legislation. The legal arguments are a bit different to invocation and doubtless it will end up in the Supreme Court. Though any government could just gold plate it with primary legislation anyway in advance of a ruling.David_Evershed said:
Under the ECJ ruling May needs a vote in parliament (or similar) to revoke A50.Donny43 said:
No, all she has to do is wait. The no deal "button" was pushed 21 months ago, it's the override switch that would need to be flipped now.grabcocque said:
No, because of the ECJ ruling, May can revoke A50 right up until the 28th March.kinabalu said:
I agree. The party line is to oppose and that will not change.TheJezziah said:Labour won't be blackmailed to vote for the deal.
But do you not think that if it goes to the wire and if they see that article 50 extension and 2nd ref is not happening, so the choice is leave 29/3 with TMs deal or leave 29/3 with no deal, then in that scenario there will be Labour MPs who are willing to go against the leadership?
May has to CHOOSE to press that No Deal button.0 -
Tears of joy...Big_G_NorthWales said:
At her declaration she will not lead into the next GE (Sky)Gallowgate said:Why would cabinet ministers be crying?
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Yup, these Russian trolls are working overtime to smear the ERG.Luckyguy1983 said:
Is this also the source for the 'ERG are furious because they were told the vote was on Monday' tweet? I don't believe the 'kill zone' thing until I hear an ERG person say it either. I think we're being manipulated.Scott_P said:The ERG have gone off prematurely...
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/10728717938017894400 -
Amazing it is not 100%TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Couple of good articles on this in Spectator a couple of weeks ago - these are the boots on the ground, its the software tracking thats really scaryFrancisUrquhart said:Not scary at all...
"Information Collectors" are paid by the government to go around and monitor behaviour of citizens.
China’s "Social Credit System" Can Create More Than Just Public Shaming
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkw15LkZ_Kw
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Far too many of our elected officials seem to forget they voted on a bill that makes our exit from the EU next March legally binding.YellowSubmarine said:
Thanks. I hadn't picked up it was that definitive.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's going to need primary legislation because of the provisions of the Withdrawal Act.YellowSubmarine said:
I understand when the referal returns to the Inner House in Edinburgh the applicants are going to ask the Scottish Courts to rule on what would need to happen to revoke A50 at our end. Ie us it a prerogative power or does it need primary legislation. The legal arguments are a bit different to invocation and doubtless it will end up in the Supreme Court. Though any government could just gold plate it with primary legislation anyway in advance of a ruling.David_Evershed said:
Under the ECJ ruling May needs a vote in parliament (or similar) to revoke A50.Donny43 said:
No, all she has to do is wait. The no deal "button" was pushed 21 months ago, it's the override switch that would need to be flipped now.grabcocque said:
No, because of the ECJ ruling, May can revoke A50 right up until the 28th March.kinabalu said:
I agree. The party line is to oppose and that will not change.TheJezziah said:Labour won't be blackmailed to vote for the deal.
But do you not think that if it goes to the wire and if they see that article 50 extension and 2nd ref is not happening, so the choice is leave 29/3 with TMs deal or leave 29/3 with no deal, then in that scenario there will be Labour MPs who are willing to go against the leadership?
May has to CHOOSE to press that No Deal button.0 -
It is totally open to bribery and corruption. These local busybodies hold your life opportunities in their little black book. And of course there is no record of widespread bribery among local officials in China.rawzer said:
Couple of good articles on this in Spectator a couple of weeks ago - these are the boots on the ground, its the software tracking thats really scaryFrancisUrquhart said:Not scary at all...
"Information Collectors" are paid by the government to go around and monitor behaviour of citizens.
China’s "Social Credit System" Can Create More Than Just Public Shaming
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkw15LkZ_Kw0 -
They'll still be arguing whose fault it is when the Revolutionary Tribunal is tying the ropes around their necks outside the Banqueting House.OblitusSumMe said:
The government would say vote for this deal which avoids the chaos and abides by the referendum vote in 2016. It's then a political argument as to who receives the most blame.anothernick said:
So we get to mid March, supermarkets warn of imminent food shortages, manufacturing industry is screaming blue murder, the pound is collapsing and the country is on the verge of panic and the government is chartering planes to fly in vital drugs. Parliament says hang on a minute, we can avoid all this by revoking. The government says, no chance mate, were going over the cliff. That would be preposterous, and politically unsustainable.OblitusSumMe said:
I'm not so sure. We know that it requires an Act of Parliament. Any old Commons motion well not be enough to compel HMG to act. The Commons can only assert its will in such a situation by voting no confidence in HMG and forming a ministry to act in accordance with the will of the Commons - but Corbyn is a blocker to that.anothernick said:
If Parliament votes to revoke it is inconceivable that a government could ignore that, especially a government as weak as the current one. And I think the various players involved- Bercow, Starmer, Grieve etc - will ensure parliament gets the chance to vote on this.OblitusSumMe said:
Parliament cannot revoke Article 50 on its own. You would need a PM to support the revocation to bring the necessary Bill before the House and then to write the letter to send to Brussels. I don't think May will do that and the Remainers in Parliament cannot install their own PM to do so because Corbyn sits there, irrevocably dividing them.anothernick said:
Not at all, there will always be the option of revoking article 50, and if we get into March without agreement on a deal I think Parliament will take that option. Remainers will support it for obvious reasons and opponents of May's deal will support it because they will kid themselves that it's only a temporary pause in the process. But revokation will, in practice, be the end of the story.OblitusSumMe said:I don't believe Theresa May will pivot to No Brexit. I think she will keep on trying to win support for her deal to the bitter end.
At some point the Remainers will realise that the only way to force a referendum is with a referendum-supporting PM - but if the DUP support HMG that would require Tory MPs to vote against their own party in a confidence vote. Corbyn ensures that won't happen.
So then the only way to avoid no deal is to vote for the PM's deal.0 -
I've upset the editor of UKIPConHome0
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The Theresa May snap elections investment programme ; a secure record you can trust.0
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Exit Day got put on the face of the bill. It received a fair amount of publicity at the time but perhaps the consequences were not fully understood.YellowSubmarine said:
Thanks. I hadn't picked up it was that definitive.TheScreamingEagles said:
It's going to need primary legislation because of the provisions of the Withdrawal Act.YellowSubmarine said:
I understand when the referal returns to the Inner House in Edinburgh the applicants are going to ask the Scottish Courts to rule on what would need to happen to revoke A50 at our end. Ie us it a prerogative power or does it need primary legislation. The legal arguments are a bit different to invocation and doubtless it will end up in the Supreme Court. Though any government could just gold plate it with primary legislation anyway in advance of a ruling.David_Evershed said:
Under the ECJ ruling May needs a vote in parliament (or similar) to revoke A50.Donny43 said:
No, all she has to do is wait. The no deal "button" was pushed 21 months ago, it's the override switch that would need to be flipped now.grabcocque said:
No, because of the ECJ ruling, May can revoke A50 right up until the 28th March.kinabalu said:
I agree. The party line is to oppose and that will not change.TheJezziah said:Labour won't be blackmailed to vote for the deal.
But do you not think that if it goes to the wire and if they see that article 50 extension and 2nd ref is not happening, so the choice is leave 29/3 with TMs deal or leave 29/3 with no deal, then in that scenario there will be Labour MPs who are willing to go against the leadership?
May has to CHOOSE to press that No Deal button.0 -
These might be paywalledFrancisUrquhart said:
It is totally open to bribery and corruption. These local busybodies hold your life opportunities in their little black book. And of course there is no record of widespread bribery among local officials in China.rawzer said:
Couple of good articles on this in Spectator a couple of weeks ago - these are the boots on the ground, its the software tracking thats really scaryFrancisUrquhart said:Not scary at all...
"Information Collectors" are paid by the government to go around and monitor behaviour of citizens.
China’s "Social Credit System" Can Create More Than Just Public Shaming
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkw15LkZ_Kw
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/in-chinas-new-surveillance-state-everyone-will-be-watched-reviewed-and-rated/
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/social-credit-is-just-one-part-of-chinas-new-state-control/
400 million cameras, 120,000 paid informers in just one Beijing district, online transaction tracking etc etc -- all fed into working out your personal "social credit" score which will condition how your life plays out.0 -
I'm in a proper spat with Mark Wallace now.0
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The party must be really scared of the people deciding that perhaps a one party state isn't for them.rawzer said:
These might be paywalledFrancisUrquhart said:
It is totally open to bribery and corruption. These local busybodies hold your life opportunities in their little black book. And of course there is no record of widespread bribery among local officials in China.rawzer said:
Couple of good articles on this in Spectator a couple of weeks ago - these are the boots on the ground, its the software tracking thats really scaryFrancisUrquhart said:Not scary at all...
"Information Collectors" are paid by the government to go around and monitor behaviour of citizens.
China’s "Social Credit System" Can Create More Than Just Public Shaming
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dkw15LkZ_Kw
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/in-chinas-new-surveillance-state-everyone-will-be-watched-reviewed-and-rated/
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/social-credit-is-just-one-part-of-chinas-new-state-control/
400 million cameras, 120,000 paid informers in just one Beijing district, online transaction tracking etc etc -- all fed into working out your personal "social credit" score which will condition how your life plays out.0 -
Mr. Eagles, have you tried asking him whether he thinks Caesar is a better general than Hannibal?0
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What happened? You told him that Die Hard isn't a Christmas movie?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm in a proper spat with Mark Wallace now.
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I called him out for his site publishing voodoo surveys.FrancisUrquhart said:
What happened? You told him that Die Hard isn't a Christmas movie?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm in a proper spat with Mark Wallace now.
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Showing...Pineapple on pizza is actually the most popular topping?TheScreamingEagles said:
I called him out for his site publishing voodoo surveys.FrancisUrquhart said:
What happened? You told him that Die Hard isn't a Christmas movie?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm in a proper spat with Mark Wallace now.
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Have you thought this through? We need something to bet against, after all.TheScreamingEagles said:
I called him out for his site publishing voodoo surveys.FrancisUrquhart said:
What happened? You told him that Die Hard isn't a Christmas movie?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm in a proper spat with Mark Wallace now.
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This is an article I read a few months ago. It's properly bonkers in some parts of China.FrancisUrquhart said:The party must be really scared of the people deciding that perhaps a one party state isn't for them.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/china-s-xinjiang-province-a-surveillance-state-unlike-any-the-world-has-ever-seen-a-1220174.html
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The Apprentice episode might be cancelled...that be sure to piss a lot of people off.0
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Sgt. Sunil: Alright, sweethearts, you're a team and there's nothin' to worry about. We come here, and we're gonna conquer, and we're gonna kick some, is that understood? That's what we're gonna do, sweethearts, we are going to go and get some. All right, people, on the ready line! Are ya lean?TheScreamingEagles said:
No Deal = Deaths of people due to a meds shortage.Gallowgate said:Why would cabinet ministers be crying?
Do you want that on your conscience?
The fact it would almost certainly lead to a Corbyn government and the Tories out of a generation is another kicker.
PB Tories: Yeah!
Sgt. Sunil: Are ya mean?
PB Tories: Yeah!
Sgt. Sunil: WHAT ARE YOU?
PB Tories: Lean and mean!
Sgt. Sunil: WHAT ARE YOU? RobD! TSE! Get on the ready line, PB Tories, get some today! Get on the ready line! Move it out! Move it out, goddammit! Get hot! One, two, three, four! Get out, get out, get out! Move it out, move it out, move it out! Move it out, move it out, move it out! One, two, three, four, five, six, seven! Aaarrrrr, absolutely badasses! Let's pack 'em in! Get in there!
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