politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If punters risking their cash have got this right TMay’s safe

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1072877163051974657

Surely if it comes down to the difference of a handful of votes she is toast anyway.

Why take the chance? Thatcher lost because Peter Morrison expected an easy win.

If Theresa wins what will be Boris’s best approach? I think he’ll swing behind her deal and present himself as a kind of unify-the-party-and-country arbitrator.

TGOHF said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Sean_F said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Sean_F said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Sean_F said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Mortimer said:

MarqueeMark said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sky - 164 public declarations for TM (assume they have the names)

316 MPs (+2 if suspended MPs can vote)

May needs 158 to survive. That only needs 7 lying Tory MPs to oust her.

Anyone think there are only 7 lying Tory MPs "supporting" May?

Takeaway is that it is much closer than the betfair market indicates.

I'm very pleased with my 7/1....

197 to 69 requires a formidable number of people changing their minds when given a secret ballot.

My informal estimate is 205 to 85.

I saw your additional numbers and I agree.

Perhaps overstating May by 10-15?

You mean, 10 or 15 might change their mind in the booth? Or the spreadsheet is simply wrong?

I assume that some are not telling the truth. So, in reality, that would suggest May is currently ahead by 190-95 to 95-100.

Plausible. Honestly I don't know.

What I do know is that the movement will be almost entirely one way.

Contrary to what some people are claiming, I think a win by 200 to 110 would be quite sufficient for May.

More than that.

We can bin all precedents. We live in a new era. Therefore I think that result would be seen, in the circs, as a positive triumph. A 2 to 1 victory? Corbyn LOST his by 3 to 1, remember.

She'd be totally vindicated, and the ERG humbled and enfeebled.

May clinging on when 100+ of her MPs think she is inept would require an intervention.

Strictly speaking more than 100 will likely think her inept even if only that number vote against her.

anothernick said:

OblitusSumMe said:

RobC said:

Mortimer said:

Ok. i think we call that pie in the sky Brexit. All sounds rosy until the obvious questions are asked

1) How does she get the WA through parliament whilst pivoting to that, presumably in an updated political declaration (she'd probably lose another 50 Tory MPs if she tries, and Labour will still vote against because they're going to vote against whatever).
2) How does she get to the EU to agree to your post-transition position without FoM

There are three options, as there have been all along:

- Her deal with the WA and an uncertain post transition, to be decided by whoever succeeds her.
- No deal - managed or otherwise
- No brexit

It'll be no Brexit. Now she doesn't have to worry about the ERG because they've shot their bolt prematurely she can delay article 50 to avoid no-deal chaos and call a referendum. Enough of the worried middle will plump for the status quo in that ref.

I don't believe Theresa May will pivot to No Brexit. I think she will keep on trying to win support for her deal to the bitter end.

At some point the Remainers will realise that the only way to force a referendum is with a referendum-supporting PM - but if the DUP support HMG that would require Tory MPs to vote against their own party in a confidence vote. Corbyn ensures that won't happen.

So then the only way to avoid no deal is to vote for the PM's deal.

Not at all, there will always be the option of revoking article 50, and if we get into March without agreement on a deal I think Parliament will take that option. Remainers will support it for obvious reasons and opponents of May's deal will support it because they will kid themselves that it's only a temporary pause in the process. But revokation will, in practice, be the end of the story.

Parliament cannot revoke Article 50 on its own. You would need a PM to support the revocation to bring the necessary Bill before the House and then to write the letter to send to Brussels. I don't think May will do that and the Remainers in Parliament cannot install their own PM to do so because Corbyn sits there, irrevocably dividing them.

SeanT said:

JackW said:

Brom said:

JackW said:

Scott_P said:

The ERG have gone off prematurely...

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1072871793801789440

It's called premature ERGaculation

I disagree. By luck or judgement the ERG have called this at a good time for them. If the vote happens with a weekend in between I would expect it to benefit May as longer periods of reflection tend to be beneficial to the status quo.

The ERG have royally cocked this up. They went off half cock a fortnight ago with JRM willy waving only to find out the fig leaf was barely big enough to cover their embarrassment and now they have limp-dicked over the 48 line with all the fanfare of a used condom in a whore house.

I wouldn't trust them to organise a decent sex party at SeanT's luxury bordello in Thailand !!

You HAVE been away a long time. I'm now a happily married man (albeit to a woman less than half my age) and we don't discuss those unseemly rumours from my past. Ahem.

Hearty congratulations you old rogue.

I've been a bit tied up ... ( No not in THAT sense .. ... although, one lives in hope !! ) .. the quacks have had their way and seem to have, likely as by dint of chance as much else, prolonged my tenure by at least a new Prime Minister ... bugger, that might not be too long ..

168 supposedly declared for, 147 undeclared.

The complexity of the 'where goeth brexit?' puzzle is a thing of beauty for someone like me who relishes this type of thing. I love solving seemingly intractable problems. The more seemingly intractable a problem is the more I love solving it. It's in my DNA. And I am almost there on this one. I have the model built and I've run it a few times to make sure it holds up. It does. But I'm missing one final piece of info to feed in and am hoping that somebody very very serious and authoritative on here can supply it. What I need is the answer to the following question:

With a gun to their heads (which they think is loaded but isn't, because let's avoid violent imagery) and forced to choose between and ONLY between the deal and an article 50 extension for another referendum, which one would the DUP plump for?

GIN1138 said:

grabcocque said:

JackW said:

The ERG have gone off prematurely...

Ruddy hell it's only JackW ain't it gawd blimey.

You always know the tectonic plates are shifting with JackW appears from his dungeon!

He's 120 years old you know.

Coincidentally the same as the number of votes against May.

The cunning planner behind the ERG revealed:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1072884319495118848

OblitusSumMe said:

anothernick said:

OblitusSumMe said:

RobC said:

Mortimer said:

Ok. i think we call that pie in the sky Brexit. All sounds rosy until the obvious questions are asked

1) How does she get the WA through parliament whilst pivoting to that, presumably in an updated political declaration (she'd probably lose another 50 Tory MPs if she tries, and Labour will still vote against because they're going to vote against whatever).
2) How does she get to the EU to agree to your post-transition position without FoM

There are three options, as there have been all along:

- Her deal with the WA and an uncertain post transition, to be decided by whoever succeeds her.
- No deal - managed or otherwise
- No brexit

It'll be no Brexit. Now she doesn't have to worry about the ERG because they've shot their bolt prematurely she can delay article 50 to avoid no-deal chaos and call a referendum. Enough of the worried middle will plump for the status quo in that ref.

I don't believe Theresa May will pivot to No Brexit. I think she will keep on trying to win support for her deal to the bitter end.

At some point the Remainers will realise that the only way to force a referendum is with a referendum-supporting PM - but if the DUP support HMG that would require Tory MPs to vote against their own party in a confidence vote. Corbyn ensures that won't happen.

So then the only way to avoid no deal is to vote for the PM's deal.

Not at all, there will always be the option of revoking article 50, and if we get into March without agreement on a deal I think Parliament will take that option. Remainers will support it for obvious reasons and opponents of May's deal will support it because they will kid themselves that it's only a temporary pause in the process. But revokation will, in practice, be the end of the story.

Parliament cannot revoke Article 50 on its own. You would need a PM to support the revocation to bring the necessary Bill before the House and then to write the letter to send to Brussels. I don't think May will do that and the Remainers in Parliament cannot install their own PM to do so because Corbyn sits there, irrevocably dividing them.

If Parliament votes to revoke it is inconceivable that a government could ignore that, especially a government as weak as the current one. And I think the various players involved- Bercow, Starmer, Grieve etc - will ensure parliament gets the chance to vote on this.

TheJezziah said:

OblitusSumMe said:

RobC said:

Mortimer said:

Ok. i think we call that pie in the sky Brexit. All sounds rosy until the obvious questions are asked

1) How does she get the WA through parliament whilst pivoting to that, presumably in an updated political declaration (she'd probably lose another 50 Tory MPs if she tries, and Labour will still vote against because they're going to vote against whatever).
2) How does she get to the EU to agree to your post-transition position without FoM

There are three options, as there have been all along:

- Her deal with the WA and an uncertain post transition, to be decided by whoever succeeds her.
- No deal - managed or otherwise
- No brexit

It'll be no Brexit. Now she doesn't have to worry about the ERG because they've shot their bolt prematurely she can delay article 50 to avoid no-deal chaos and call a referendum. Enough of the worried middle will plump for the status quo in that ref.

I don't believe Theresa May will pivot to No Brexit. I think she will keep on trying to win support for her deal to the bitter end.

At some point the Remainers will realise that the only way to force a referendum is with a referendum-supporting PM - but if the DUP support HMG that would require Tory MPs to vote against their own party in a confidence vote. Corbyn ensures that won't happen.

So then the only way to avoid no deal is to vote for the PM's deal.

Labour won't be blackmailed to vote for the deal. Neither will most others in the house of commons. If the Tories want no deal they will get it, I wonder if some Conservatives will get cold feet about doing that to the country though...

There are more than enough Conservative MPs who prefer no deal over any deal to ensure that May's deal will be defeated unless large numbers of Opposition MPs vote for the deal.

There is more than enough blame to go around for me to blame them for the resulting mess, as well as May and the ERG, etc.

kinabalu said:

With a gun to their heads (which they think is loaded but isn't, because let's avoid violent imagery) and forced to choose between and ONLY between the deal and an article 50 extension for another referendum, which one would the DUP plump for?

Avoiding an Irish sea border is more important to the DUP than Brexit.

JackW said:

SeanT said:

JackW said:

Brom said:

JackW said:

Scott_P said:

The ERG have gone off prematurely...

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1072871793801789440

It's called premature ERGaculation

I disagree. By luck or judgement the ERG have called this at a good time for them. If the vote happens with a weekend in between I would expect it to benefit May as longer periods of reflection tend to be beneficial to the status quo.

The ERG have royally cocked this up. They went off half cock a fortnight ago with JRM willy waving only to find out the fig leaf was barely big enough to cover their embarrassment and now they have limp-dicked over the 48 line with all the fanfare of a used condom in a whore house.

I wouldn't trust them to organise a decent sex party at SeanT's luxury bordello in Thailand !!

You HAVE been away a long time. I'm now a happily married man (albeit to a woman less than half my age) and we don't discuss those unseemly rumours from my past. Ahem.

Hearty congratulations you old rogue.

I've been a bit tied up ... ( No not in THAT sense .. ... although, one lives in hope !! ) .. the quacks have had their way and seem to have, likely as by dint of chance as much else, prolonged my tenure by at least a new Prime Minister ... bugger, that might not be too long ..

Herodotus has written - he wants his Fountain of Youth back!

Pulpstar said:

Beverley_C said:

Cyclefree said:

Beverley_C said:

Cyclefree said:

My cat – conveniently at the vet today having an operation. Calm and affectionate. Comes from Birmingham and has fathered 4 kittens. So should sew up the Midlands family vote. No other achievements and knows nothing at all about Brexit (or anything else, for that matter, other than the most comfortable chairs and when dinner time is). But that, surely, should not be an insuperable objection?

My cat is dead, but it is still ahead of the other entrants (apart from your cat). I might have a stuffed toy animal somewhere from when the kids were young. It might have teeth marks or chewed ear, but it is still smarter than the whole ERG

The mug I'm drinking my tea from is smarter than the whole ERG.

I have 4 cats and a dog. So really between my animals and your stuffed toys we can provide pretty much the whole Cabinet.

Yes - I think we probably can.

Can I add 2 horses, 3 cats, 6 rabbits and 18 fish ?

I think there are a limited numbers of paid cabinet post allowed.

Swap 18 fish for a fish tank and you should be ok

Pulpstar said:

Why do I have a mental image of Michael Gove busily telling his quietly declared support to absolubtely declare they are all behind the PM ?

Ditto Hunt.

Ditto Javid.......

Scrapheap_as_was said:

The cunning planner behind the ERG revealed:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1072884319495118848

Hardly that surprising given how IDS behaved under Major. He has no understanding of loyalty or much else, frankly. Almost as stupid and incompetent as Corbyn. If Brexit doesn't do for the Tories, Universal Credit will.

In 2003 many a Tory MP, including Michael Howard, publicly expressed support for Iain Duncan Smith as leader. He then lost by 90 to 75.

grabcocque said:

This clip of Andrew Bridgen and James Cleverley, two educated middle-aged men, refusing like petulant toddlers to speak to each other, or even look at each other, is breathtaking:

https://twitter.com/scottygb/status/1072811633788010497

Brexit has infantilised everything.

I would refuse to be near Brigden as well - he is a disgrace of an MP

Gallowgate said:

OblitusSumMe said:

anothernick said:

OblitusSumMe said:

RobC said:

Mortimer said:

Ok. i think we call that pie in the sky Brexit. All sounds rosy until the obvious questions are asked

1) How does she get the WA through parliament whilst pivoting to that, presumably in an updated political declaration (she'd probably lose another 50 Tory MPs if she tries, and Labour will still vote against because they're going to vote against whatever).
2) How does she get to the EU to agree to your post-transition position without FoM

There are three options, as there have been all along:

- Her deal with the WA and an uncertain post transition, to be decided by whoever succeeds her.
- No deal - managed or otherwise
- No brexit

It'll be no Brexit. Now she doesn't have to worry about the ERG because they've shot their bolt prematurely she can delay article 50 to avoid no-deal chaos and call a referendum. Enough of the worried middle will plump for the status quo in that ref.

I don't believe Theresa May will pivot to No Brexit. I think she will keep on trying to win support for her deal to the bitter end.

At some point the Remainers will realise that the only way to force a referendum is with a referendum-supporting PM - but if the DUP support HMG that would require Tory MPs to vote against their own party in a confidence vote. Corbyn ensures that won't happen.

So then the only way to avoid no deal is to vote for the PM's deal.

Not at all, there will always be the option of revoking article 50, and if we get into March without agreement on a deal I think Parliament will take that option. Remainers will support it for obvious reasons and opponents of May's deal will support it because they will kid themselves that it's only a temporary pause in the process. But revokation will, in practice, be the end of the story.

Parliament cannot revoke Article 50 on its own. You would need a PM to support the revocation to bring the necessary Bill before the House and then to write the letter to send to Brussels. I don't think May will do that and the Remainers in Parliament cannot install their own PM to do so because Corbyn sits there, irrevocably dividing them.

Could Parliament pass a law making it unlawful for the PM not to revoke Article 50?

No, because the Executive has control of Parliamentary time so would have to introduce such a Bill or provide it with time. The Commons only has ultimate authority because the Executive must retain its support - but if the Commons will not use that power then the Executive has much more power.

"Look at her support amongst 2017 Lib Dem voters !"

A group you can count on one hand. Three against two means a 50% majority.

tpfkar said:

Sean_F said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Sean_F said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Sean_F said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Sean_F said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Mortimer said:

MarqueeMark said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sky - 164 public declarations for TM (assume they have the names)

316 MPs (+2 if suspended MPs can vote)

May needs 158 to survive. That only needs 7 lying Tory MPs to oust her.

Anyone think there are only 7 lying Tory MPs "supporting" May?

Takeaway is that it is much closer than the betfair market indicates.

I'm very pleased with my 7/1....

197 to 69 requires a formidable number of people changing their minds when given a secret ballot.

My informal estimate is 205 to 85.

I saw your additional numbers and I agree.

Perhaps overstating May by 10-15?

You mean, 10 or 15 might change their mind in the booth? Or the spreadsheet is simply wrong?

I assume that some are not telling the truth. So, in reality, that would suggest May is currently ahead by 190-95 to 95-100.

Plausible. Honestly I don't know.

What I do know is that the movement will be almost entirely one way.

Contrary to what some people are claiming, I think a win by 200 to 110 would be quite sufficient for May.

I reckon it'll be 200-100, give or take. Enough.

Hearing that I may be wrong about Charlie Elphicke - that's a shocking call if so with a trial ongoing (and the jury delibrating!)

And what a day for the return of Jack W! I hope the Lib Dem canvassers have been keeping you satisfied and occupied Sir...

I've got my Charlie Elphicke's mixed up with my Craig MacKinlay's haven't I? Sorry folks. Will take a 30 second dentention in ConHome. I can't manage any longer.

Chinese spies reportedly behind massive Marriott hack
Data breach traced to a Chinese intelligence-gathering effort, the New York Times reports.

https://www.cnet.com/news/chinese-spies-reportedly-behind-massive-marriott-hack/

John_M said:

Oort said:

In 2003 many a Tory MP, including Michael Howard, publicly expressed support for Iain Duncan Smith as leader. He then lost by 90 to 75.

To point out the bleeding obvious, saying 'I will support May' is not synonymous with 'I will vote for May'. It could be 'I will support May as we lower her political career into the woodchipper'.

Indeed, but c'mon, some of them in 2003 were deliberately intending to mislead, and some are now too.

Lenin said he supported Arthur Henderson the same way a rope supports a hanged man.

The question for me is whether this has been a pre-emptive move by May and her supporters to get the No Confidence vote, held, done and dusted. It might seem reasonable to remove the distraction at this time.

Of course, it could all backfire just as the 2017 GE did.

I still think she will win but the "line" has to be 200 MPs - fewer than that in favour and it looks very bad for her authority and legitimacy even if she tries to carry on.

The extent to which the vaguely worded hint of standing down before the next GE has bought off discontent won't be clear for now (if it works) and the polls and future events may yet determine whether that commitment comes back to haunt her down the line.

The Sky "pundit" seemed to think a strong win tonight might embolden May to go to the country in the New Year on a "back me and my Deal" ticket - she wins a majority and then gets the WA passed just in time. Winter elections rarely end well.

GIN1138 said:

JackW said:

GIN1138 said:

grabcocque said:

JackW said:

The ERG have gone off prematurely...

Ruddy hell it's only JackW ain't it gawd blimey.

You always know the tectonic plates are shifting when JackW appears from his dungeon!

Mrs JackW always smiles contentedly when the earth moves ....

#flith

You've seen youir fair share of Tory leaders brought down Mr Jack - What do you think's going to happen this time?

I think May will win comfortably 225-90 give or take 10.

It doesn't alter the parliamentary maths of BREXIT. It's a complete mess. Utter chaos of the first order.

stodge said:

The Sky "pundit" seemed to think a strong win tonight might embolden May to go to the country in the New Year on a "back me and my Deal" ticket - she wins a majority and then gets the WA passed just in time. Winter elections rarely end well.

That's probably what I would do. Although, I suspect we'd still end up with a dog's breakfast in the Commons, with no one being able to form a stable government.

EM has 71 declared rebel scum, add Elphicke (?) and 25 of 45 unknowns = 97. SPIN midmarket is currently 107, so 10 C liars. Maybe a little low?

Cyclefree said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

The cunning planner behind the ERG revealed:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1072884319495118848

Hardly that surprising given how IDS behaved under Major. He has no understanding of loyalty or much else, frankly. Almost as stupid and incompetent as Corbyn. If Brexit doesn't do for the Tories, Universal Credit will.

His CV lies should have meant he was never given a voice again. Instead he found god. Serial liar, serial incompetent.

grabcocque said:

Andrew Bridgen, the honourable member for North West Bullshitshire.

(Yes, I know that's childish too but I don't care)

Consistent with your chosen username though, Mr Cocque.

What is the chance that the ERG group will just spilt off when they lose? There is nothing left for them within the party.

oxfordsimon said:

What is the chance that the ERG group will just spilt off when they lose? There is nothing left for them within the party.

They will remain in the party like the Labour centrists currently do.

williamglenn said:

Avoiding an Irish sea border is more important to the DUP than Brexit.

Ok thank you. That was all I needed. I will now proceed to regression testing and barring accidents a go-live.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1s9OvRyKHB_iXAozPvDLLhCAY_jEpMScKDIn-cXAHAHY/edit#gid=0

199/72. Cheekily, someone has placed May in the No column, so it's 200 to 71.

Stock market up over 1%.

Sterling up over 1%.

Employment at record levels.

What's not to like?

David_Evershed said:

Stock market up over 1%.

Sterling up over 1%.

Employment at record levels.

What's not to like?

Clearly a very strong argument for remaining in the EU.

Sean_F said:

stodge said:

The Sky "pundit" seemed to think a strong win tonight might embolden May to go to the country in the New Year on a "back me and my Deal" ticket - she wins a majority and then gets the WA passed just in time. Winter elections rarely end well.

That's probably what I would do. Although, I suspect we'd still end up with a dog's breakfast in the Commons, with no one being able to form a stable government.

Before HYUFD gets here, I'm inclined to agree. I think the public "support" for the Deal has waned in recent days and I don't think May has done herself any favours marching round talking about nothing else.

With the economy slowing, however, the backdrop to the election won't be as pretty as before for the Government as well as general fatigue and annoyance.

David_Evershed said:

Stock market up over 1%.

Sterling up over 1%.

Employment at record levels.

What's not to like?

The huge boulder rolling down the mountain at full speed.

JackW said:

GIN1138 said:

JackW said:

GIN1138 said:

grabcocque said:

JackW said:

The ERG have gone off prematurely...

Ruddy hell it's only JackW ain't it gawd blimey.

You always know the tectonic plates are shifting when JackW appears from his dungeon!

Mrs JackW always smiles contentedly when the earth moves ....

#flith

You've seen youir fair share of Tory leaders brought down Mr Jack - What do you think's going to happen this time?

I think May will win comfortably 225-90 give or take 10.

Thanks Mr Jack.

Sean_F said:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1s9OvRyKHB_iXAozPvDLLhCAY_jEpMScKDIn-cXAHAHY/edit#gid=0

199/72. Cheekily, someone has placed May in the No column, so it's 200 to 71.

Maybe she'll vote against herself, she might be privately very bored indeed of her thankless task.
I have to admit even though the office of PM is plenty more money than I personally earn, I wouldn't actually take the job right now.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Cocque, is it from your chicken smuggling days?

I’ve always had him down as more of a chicken choker than a chicken smuggler.

anothernick said:

OblitusSumMe said:

anothernick said:

OblitusSumMe said:

anothernick said:

OblitusSumMe said:

I don't believe Theresa May will pivot to No Brexit. I think she will keep on trying to win support for her deal to the bitter end.

At some point the Remainers will realise that the only way to force a referendum is with a referendum-supporting PM - but if the DUP support HMG that would require Tory MPs to vote against their own party in a confidence vote. Corbyn ensures that won't happen.

So then the only way to avoid no deal is to vote for the PM's deal.

Not at all, there will always be the option of revoking article 50, and if we get into March without agreement on a deal I think Parliament will take that option. Remainers will support it for obvious reasons and opponents of May's deal will support it because they will kid themselves that it's only a temporary pause in the process. But revokation will, in practice, be the end of the story.

Parliament cannot revoke Article 50 on its own. You would need a PM to support the revocation to bring the necessary Bill before the House and then to write the letter to send to Brussels. I don't think May will do that and the Remainers in Parliament cannot install their own PM to do so because Corbyn sits there, irrevocably dividing them.

If Parliament votes to revoke it is inconceivable that a government could ignore that, especially a government as weak as the current one. And I think the various players involved- Bercow, Starmer, Grieve etc - will ensure parliament gets the chance to vote on this.

I'm not so sure. We know that it requires an Act of Parliament. Any old Commons motion well not be enough to compel HMG to act. The Commons can only assert its will in such a situation by voting no confidence in HMG and forming a ministry to act in accordance with the will of the Commons - but Corbyn is a blocker to that.

So we get to mid March, supermarkets warn of imminent food shortages, manufacturing industry is screaming blue murder, the pound is collapsing and the country is on the verge of panic and the government is chartering planes to fly in vital drugs. Parliament says hang on a minute, we can avoid all this by revoking. The government says, no chance mate, were going over the cliff. That would be preposterous, and politically unsustainable.

Sooner or later the message that's been pushed since 2016 - "We must give people what they voted for, even if it ruins the idiots and propels them into a future they didn't have a clue might result from their sacred democratic choice" - will bring diminishing returns.

OblitusSumMe said:

The government would say vote for this deal which avoids the chaos and abides by the referendum vote in 2016. It's then a political argument as to who receives the most blame.

But most MPs are remainers, in their heart of hearts they don't want to leave. And the deal is already deader than a dodo, it has been so roundly condemned on all sides that the words that would have to be eaten to get it through would be much less digestible than revokation, which could, and would, be presented as a temporary expedient whilst a better deal was negotiated.

GIN1138 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

GIN1138 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1072877163051974657

Surely if it comes down to the difference of a handful of votes she is toast anyway.

Yes this is looking very, very desperate from Team May if they're so unsure of the result they've got to start promoting people who have had the whip withdrawn.

All the mood music suggests the opposite, but even if tight it is massively tin earred to try and creep over the line like this.

It's a secret vote in one of the most sneaky and duplicitous electorate's you can find - "mood music" and public pledges of loyalty means nothing...

Only for us to know, broadly, how many are devious snakes.

grabcocque said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Cocque, is it from your chicken smuggling days?

It was from the made up middle names on my Tory membership card that had been placed there by well meaning friends in the days when I was a party member.

I was given the fictitious middle names "Lerwick deTocqueville Grabcocque".

I still have friends who call me Grabcocque or Grabby or (usually) Cocky. Even him indoors calls me Cocky. Stupid names stick.

Parents should, sometimes, be a bit more careful when selecting names for their infants. My wife has a pair of relations who, a la the Beckhams, named their child after the place where the (ahem) significant event was thought to have place.
My parents gave me a very unusual name which has sometimes been useful, sometimes not. They also insisted, for family reasons on giving a middle name starting Q.
It’s very difficult to develop a flowing signature, or when initially something.

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1072889607942012929

Remarkable honesty. No wonder he is very disillusioned.

kle4 said:

GIN1138 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

GIN1138 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1072877163051974657

Surely if it comes down to the difference of a handful of votes she is toast anyway.

Yes this is looking very, very desperate from Team May if they're so unsure of the result they've got to start promoting people who have had the whip withdrawn.

All the mood music suggests the opposite, but even if tight it is massively tin earred to try and creep over the line like this.

It's a secret vote in one of the most sneaky and duplicitous electorate's you can find - "mood music" and public pledges of loyalty means nothing...

Only for us to know, broadly, how many are devious snakes.

This is the Tory party !