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Okay... my position... is the opposite of a permanent customs union... and the furthest thing possible from the single market access we currently have... if they fail in the above because they can't get a GE I definitely don't want them to pivot to supporting a 2nd referendum and remain.IanB2 said:
Their position is whatever you would like it to be. Where's the problem?TheJezziah said:
Yes they do, they have repeated it enough. You might not like it or you might not like the leader but as long as you can understand English and have paid attention you know they have a position.Gallowgate said:
Labour doesn't have a position.TheJezziah said:
Grand words for somebody complaining about Labour position...SeanT said:
They really really DO give a shit, in Brussels, Berlin, Paris, the Hague, Dublin. Because No Deal would not just hammer trade, it would cause financial and legal chaos (for them, as well as us). They know this, which is why they expect us to blink first. But if it looks like we have gone entirely mad, and ripped off our own eyelids, and therefore cannot blink, they will seek a modest compromise.RoyalBlue said:
We will still be in the Single Market with the Withdrawal Agreement, which has already been agreed.SeanT said:
It would not be quick in any sense to agree something different. You would need to get Agreement from all the EFTA states. Single Market + Customs Union is not compatible with EFTA as is. It would need to be ratified by the European Parliament. None of this is instant.
People really need to stop thinking that other countries give two s***s about Parliament’s inability to take a decision.
This one would suit them nicely.
Can you see where that might conflict with what the Labour front bench have said?
It may not be a clear position between May's Deal, remain* and no deal but that is why I clarified a position Galloway might not like.
*Although it does actually include this but as a second stage.0 -
And how many liars within that tally? Quite a few I'm expecting. That's not enough to be safe. Nowhere near.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky - 164 public declarations for TM (assume they have the names)
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Straws and grasping at them, maybeMarqueeMark said:
And how many liars within that tally? Quite a few I'm expecting. That's not enough to be safe. Nowhere near.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky - 164 public declarations for TM (assume they have the names)
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I think a quick vote turnaround helps the plotters if anything.Scott_P said:The ERG have gone off prematurely...
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/10728717938017894400 -
The Conservatives have become so useless that one would probably be content to see them smashed to smithereens at an election - but for the fact that we all know whom the potential replacements are. The reign of the Hugo Chavez Memorial Society of Great Britain beckons.AmpfieldAndy said:Sticking with May gives the Tories a big headache. They are stuck with a “nothing has changed” leader peddling a Brexit deal that won’t pass unless there are major changes to the backstop which she can’t celiver.
A different approach requires a different leader; a general election requires a different leader.
Sticking with May is the political equivalent of the Charge of the Light Brigade
I fear that the Second Law may soon be affirmed by new evidence: yet another bad Prime Minister stands to be replaced by an even more useless and repellent successor.0 -
I felt we were at the early echo. chamber stage so had a long nap. I think Grabcoque puts his finger on it by asking how the DUP will react to May's survival. That's the key question if she does survive. The other very valid point are the historical precedents fort the rebellion to be bigger than we all think. In the absence of any hard data perhaps the senario we should all war game is her surviving but by a narrower margin than the betting odds currently suggest.0
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I think the ducks wouldn't last a weekend either to be honest. Either you have the numbers to topple the leader, or you don't, all this talk of timeframes is just excuses.Scott_P said:
Apparently not because they haven't got their ducks lined upDanSmith said:I think a quick vote turnaround helps the plotters if anything.
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Yes are permanent, customs and union even English words?!Gallowgate said:
Repeating something incomprehensible over and over again does not make it a 'position'.TheJezziah said:
Yes they do, they have repeated it enough. You might not like it or you might not like the leader but as long as you can understand English and have paid attention you know they have a position.Gallowgate said:
Labour doesn't have a position.TheJezziah said:
Grand words for somebody complaining about Labour position...SeanT said:
They really really DO give a shit, in Brussels, Berlin, Paris, the Hague, Dublin. Because No Deal would not just hammer trade, it would cause financial and legal chaos (for them, as well as us). They know this, which is why they expect us to blink first. But if it looks like we have gone entirely mad, and ripped off our own eyelids, and therefore cannot blink, they will seek a modest compromise.RoyalBlue said:
We will still be in the Single Market with the Withdrawal Agreement, which has already been agreed.SeanT said:
Nah. The EU would VERY happily welcome us back into the Single Market, as well.RoyalBlue said:
A50 would be delayed for a few weeks, it would need quick negotiation, but it could be done easily: as it is status quo ante.
It would not be quick in any sense to agree something different. You would need to get Agreement from all the EFTA states. Single Market + Customs Union is not compatible with EFTA as is. It would need to be ratified by the European Parliament. None of this is instant.
People really need to stop thinking that other countries give two s***s about Parliament’s inability to take a decision.
This one would suit them nicely.
It's just as meaningless as half the rubbish that comes out of May's mouth.
Your bias is obscene. I really hope you don't actually believe what you are writing and are simply doing it out of some blind duty.
Clearly they are making up non English words because Gallowgate doesn't like the position so thus it must not exist.
Are you to stupid to understand that when they say permanent customs union that is actually a position?
Let us say hypothetically Corbyn is the world's worst and most evil person.... it makes no difference, Labour still actually have a position.
Again, you might not like the position, it might not pick between the options you want but that isn't the definition of having a position.
The ERG clearly have a position, I strongly disagree with it but it is clearly there, my dislike of it doesn't make me unable to understand the simple English words they are saying.
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52:48 is the optimum numberYellowSubmarine said:I felt we were at the early echo. chamber stage so had a long nap. I think Grabcoque puts his finger on it by asking how the DUP will react to May's survival. That's the key question if she does survive. The other very valid point are the historical precedents fort the rebellion to be bigger than we all think. In the absence of any hard data perhaps the senario we should all war game is her surviving but by a narrower margin than the betting odds currently suggest.
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Guardian website puts it at 150, with names. Which does not seem to me to be very encouraging for May, less than half her MPs and three hours to go before the vote....Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky - 164 public declarations for TM (assume they have the names)
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This is going to be quite close isn't it. No will be disappointed if they aren't 120+.anothernick said:
Guardian website puts it at 150, with names. Which does not seem to me to be very encouraging for May, less than half her MPs and three hours to go before the vote....Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky - 164 public declarations for TM (assume they have the names)
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316 MPs (+2 if suspended MPs can vote)Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky - 164 public declarations for TM (assume they have the names)
May needs 158 to survive. That only needs 7 lying Tory MPs to oust her.
Anyone think there are only 7 lying Tory MPs "supporting" May?0 -
Permanent customs union with a 'single market relationship' but with the ability to do our own trade deals?TheJezziah said:Yes are permanent, customs and union even English words?!
Clearly they are making up non English words because Gallowgate doesn't like the position so thus it must not exist.
Are you to stupid to understand that when they say permanent customs union that is actually a position?
Let us say hypothetically Corbyn is the world's worst and most evil person.... it makes no difference, Labour still actually have a position.
Again, you might not like the position, it might not pick between the options you want but that isn't the definition of having a position.
The ERG clearly have a position, I strongly disagree with it but it is clearly there, my dislike of it doesn't make me unable to understand the simple English words they are saying.
Translated to English, the above means: 🦄0 -
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Looks like 197 v 69 so farDanSmith said:
This is going to be quite close isn't it. No will be disappointed if they aren't 120+.anothernick said:
Guardian website puts it at 150, with names. Which does not seem to me to be very encouraging for May, less than half her MPs and three hours to go before the vote....Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky - 164 public declarations for TM (assume they have the names)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1s9OvRyKHB_iXAozPvDLLhCAY_jEpMScKDIn-cXAHAHY/edit#gid=0
(better sources than earlier)
49 unknown.0 -
Labour’s position: “this is a shockingly bad deal and must be renegotiated (by us). The backstop is unacceptable because it traps us in a customs union which we can’t escape except by mutual consent of EU and U.K. we would do much better, scrap the backstop and negotiate a permanent customs union which will be in place unless ended by mutual agreement”Gallowgate said:
Repeating something incomprehensible over and over again does not make it a 'position'.TheJezziah said:
Yes they do, they have repeated it enough. You might not like it or you might not like the leader but as long as you can understand English and have paid attention you know they have a position.Gallowgate said:
Labour doesn't have a position.TheJezziah said:
Grand words for somebody complaining about Labour position...SeanT said:
They really really DO give a shit, in Brussels, Berlin, Paris, the Hague, Dublin. Because No Deal would not just hammer tradeRoyalBlue said:
We will still be in the Single Market with the Withdrawal Agreement, which has already been agreed.SeanT said:
Nah. The EU would VERY happily welcome us back into the Single Market, as well.RoyalBlue said:
Utterly implausible. The EU has more important things to do than negotiate with an ungovernable country. Brexit is not dining a la carte. The choices are deal, no deal or revoke.SeanT said:This seems quite plausible to me. The ERG fail and we end up with quasi-Norway.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/how-the-brexiteer-rebels-gamble-could-backfire/
Our MPs, the media and the country need to get that into their heads.
A50 would be delayed for a few weeks, it would need quick negotiation, but it could be done easily: as it is status quo ante.
It would not be quick in any sense to agree something different. You would need to get Agreement from all the EFTA states. Single Market + Customs Union is not compatible with EFTA as is. It would need to be ratified by the European Parliament. None of this is instant.
People really need to stop thinking that other countries give two s***s about Parliament’s inability to take a decision.
This one would suit them nicely.
It's just as meaningless as half the rubbish that comes out of May's mouth.
Your bias is obscene. I really hope you don't actually believe what you are writing and are simply doing it out of some blind duty.
Does that cover it?
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Sounds pretty similar to Labour's position.SeanT said:
OK, finished work.Scott_P said:
I now see it, ahem, cough, perhaps, playing this way.
She wins. She goes for softest Brexit imaginable. Stay in CU, a renamed version of the SM, and pay money like Norway, but don't call it Norway coz that annoys the Norwegians: all this for *an unspecified period, until something better can be negotiated* (i.e. never). It is Remain minus.
This has a Common majority and DUP support. It delivers on FoM, but not on money or ECJ oversight. It is colonial status but people are beyond caring. It passes, the Tory party splits, a GE is called, Corbyn wins but he can't do anything because he's bound by EU law.
Could be worse.
Or Labours non position if you are Gallowgate because none of those words you said mean anything and are possibly not even English...0 -
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1s9OvRyKHB_iXAozPvDLLhCAY_jEpMScKDIn-cXAHAHY/edit#gid=0
FWIW Google's Spreadsheet has May ahead by 197 to 67. Looking at the undecideds, I think I'd add 9 to May and 16 against.0 -
I’m not convinced that the EU will give enduring SM without freedom of movement - if I understand the backstop correctly, the ability to make the backstop NI-only (kind of) at the EU’s discretion is to avoid that situation.SeanT said:
OK, finished work.Scott_P said:
I now see it, ahem, cough, perhaps, playing this way.
She wins. She goes for softest Brexit imaginable. Stay in CU, a renamed version of the SM, and pay money like Norway, but don't call it Norway coz that annoys the Norwegians: all this for *an unspecified period, until something better can be negotiated* (i.e. never). It is Remain minus.
This has a Common majority and DUP support. It delivers on FoM, but not on money or ECJ oversight. It is colonial status but people are beyond caring. It passes, the Tory party splits, a GE is called, Corbyn wins but he can't do anything because he's bound by EU law.
Could be worse.0 -
What would make an MP, who was going to vote for May, keep quiet about it? If we think it's an unlikely scenario, then it could be very close tonight.MarqueeMark said:
316 MPs (+2 if suspended MPs can vote)Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky - 164 public declarations for TM (assume they have the names)
May needs 158 to survive. That only needs 7 lying Tory MPs to oust her.
Anyone think there are only 7 lying Tory MPs "supporting" May?0 -
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Ok. i think we call that pie in the sky Brexit. All sounds rosy until the obvious questions are askedSeanT said:
OK, finished work.Scott_P said:
I now see it, ahem, cough, perhaps, playing this way.
She wins. She goes for softest Brexit imaginable. Stay in CU, a renamed version of the SM, and pay money like Norway, but don't call it Norway coz that annoys the Norwegians: all this for *an unspecified period, until something better can be negotiated* (i.e. never). It is Remain minus.
This has a Common majority and DUP support. It delivers on FoM, but not on money or ECJ oversight. It is colonial status but people are beyond caring. It passes, the Tory party splits, a GE is called, Corbyn wins but he can't do anything because he's bound by EU law.
Could be worse.
1) How does she get the WA through parliament whilst pivoting to that, presumably in an updated political declaration (she'd probably lose another 50 Tory MPs if she tries, and Labour will still vote against because they're going to vote against whatever).
2) How does she get to the EU to agree to your post-transition position without FoM
There are three options, as there have been all along:
- Her deal with the WA and an uncertain post transition, to be decided by whoever succeeds her.
- No deal - managed or otherwise
- No brexit
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It's called premature ERGaculationScott_P said:The ERG have gone off prematurely...
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/10728717938017894400 -
https://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/burton/sex-text-shamed-mp-andrew-2320250 159 becomes a magic number.0
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One reason could be if you had a very pro-ERG constituency association.tlg86 said:
What would make an MP, who was going to vote for May, keep quiet about it? If we think it's an unlikely scenario, then it could be very close tonight.MarqueeMark said:
316 MPs (+2 if suspended MPs can vote)Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky - 164 public declarations for TM (assume they have the names)
May needs 158 to survive. That only needs 7 lying Tory MPs to oust her.
Anyone think there are only 7 lying Tory MPs "supporting" May?
Most liars will be anti-May, but not all of them.0 -
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1072877587301584896 159 is the new magic number.0
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Takeaway is that it is much closer than the betfair market indicates.MarqueeMark said:
316 MPs (+2 if suspended MPs can vote)Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky - 164 public declarations for TM (assume they have the names)
May needs 158 to survive. That only needs 7 lying Tory MPs to oust her.
Anyone think there are only 7 lying Tory MPs "supporting" May?
I'm very pleased with my 7/1....0 -
The Tories are certainly useless and are behaving like headless chickens. Not sure I want to see the rest of the country suffer a Corbyn Gov as a result though.Black_Rook said:
The Conservatives have become so useless that one would probably be content to see them smashed to smithereens at an election - but for the fact that we all know whom the potential replacements are. The reign of the Hugo Chavez Memorial Society of Great Britain beckons.AmpfieldAndy said:Sticking with May gives the Tories a big headache. They are stuck with a “nothing has changed” leader peddling a Brexit deal that won’t pass unless there are major changes to the backstop which she can’t celiver.
A different approach requires a different leader; a general election requires a different leader.
Sticking with May is the political equivalent of the Charge of the Light Brigade
I fear that the Second Law may soon be affirmed by new evidence: yet another bad Prime Minister stands to be replaced by an even more useless and repellent successor.0 -
Kudos for detailed prediction. Takes real courage that.SeanT said:She wins. She goes for softest Brexit imaginable. Stay in CU, a renamed version of the SM, and pay money like Norway, but don't call it Norway coz that annoys the Norwegians: all this for *an unspecified period, until something better can be negotiated* (i.e. never). It is Remain minus.
This has a Common majority and DUP support. It delivers on FoM, but not on money or ECJ oversight. It is colonial status but people are beyond caring. It passes, the Tory party splits, a GE is called, Corbyn wins but he can't do anything because he's bound by EU law.
But correct me if I'm wrong (which has been known).
Doesn't such a pivot to an andrex brexit, even of the deluxe 'so velvety that it's downright decadent' variety, still require us to ratify the existing and supposedly treasonous withdrawal agreement?0 -
If she wins, I think the main losers are anyone planning a Brexit Plan B of any kind. It makes it much easier for May to force people to take a clear position on Deal/No Deal/No Brexit.YellowSubmarine said:I felt we were at the early echo. chamber stage so had a long nap. I think Grabcoque puts his finger on it by asking how the DUP will react to May's survival. That's the key question if she does survive. The other very valid point are the historical precedents fort the rebellion to be bigger than we all think. In the absence of any hard data perhaps the senario we should all war game is her surviving but by a narrower margin than the betting odds currently suggest.
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No whip restoration for Charlie Elphicke ?0
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197 to 69 requires a formidable number of people changing their minds when given a secret ballot.Mortimer said:
Takeaway is that it is much closer than the betfair market indicates.MarqueeMark said:
316 MPs (+2 if suspended MPs can vote)Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky - 164 public declarations for TM (assume they have the names)
May needs 158 to survive. That only needs 7 lying Tory MPs to oust her.
Anyone think there are only 7 lying Tory MPs "supporting" May?
I'm very pleased with my 7/1....0 -
One point. If May wins does it reduce the chances of DUP backing a VoNC? Because at the moment the assumption is that they can do so without an election (because it will cause TM resignation and new Tory leader). But do it now and there will have to be an election (and with TM as Tory leader). Which DUP don’t want.0
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Black_Rook said:
The Conservatives have become so useless that one would probably be content to see them smashed to smithereens at an election - but for the fact that we all know whom the potential replacements are. The reign of the Hugo Chavez Memorial Society of Great Britain beckons.AmpfieldAndy said:Sticking with May gives the Tories a big headache. They are stuck with a “nothing has changed” leader peddling a Brexit deal that won’t pass unless there are major changes to the backstop which she can’t celiver.
A different approach requires a different leader; a general election requires a different leader.
Sticking with May is the political equivalent of the Charge of the Light Brigade
I fear that the Second Law may soon be affirmed by new evidence: yet another bad Prime Minister stands to be replaced by an even more useless and repellent successor.
Well if @AlastairMeeks' thread on Britain turning into Argentina turns out to be correct, it can't be long now before we get our first military dictatorship followed by a British Evita.
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My informal estimate is 205 to 85.TheWhiteRabbit said:
197 to 69 requires a formidable number of people changing their minds when given a secret ballot.Mortimer said:
Takeaway is that it is much closer than the betfair market indicates.MarqueeMark said:
316 MPs (+2 if suspended MPs can vote)Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky - 164 public declarations for TM (assume they have the names)
May needs 158 to survive. That only needs 7 lying Tory MPs to oust her.
Anyone think there are only 7 lying Tory MPs "supporting" May?
I'm very pleased with my 7/1....0 -
Wow wow, you just said incomprehensible words, why are you pretending there is some kind of position by making up non English words?!Gallowgate said:
Permanent customs union with a 'single market relationship' but with the ability to do our own trade deals?TheJezziah said:Yes are permanent, customs and union even English words?!
Clearly they are making up non English words because Gallowgate doesn't like the position so thus it must not exist.
Are you to stupid to understand that when they say permanent customs union that is actually a position?
Let us say hypothetically Corbyn is the world's worst and most evil person.... it makes no difference, Labour still actually have a position.
Again, you might not like the position, it might not pick between the options you want but that isn't the definition of having a position.
The ERG clearly have a position, I strongly disagree with it but it is clearly there, my dislike of it doesn't make me unable to understand the simple English words they are saying.
Translated to English, the above means: 🦄
Okay, I assume now we have got over the barrier of you pretending words don't exist or haven't been said. Progress!
We won't have the ability to do our own trade deals, what we might have is some fudged ability to review deals before we approve them, which we will.0 -
I saw your additional numbers and I agree.Sean_F said:
My informal estimate is 205 to 85.TheWhiteRabbit said:
197 to 69 requires a formidable number of people changing their minds when given a secret ballot.Mortimer said:
Takeaway is that it is much closer than the betfair market indicates.MarqueeMark said:
316 MPs (+2 if suspended MPs can vote)Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky - 164 public declarations for TM (assume they have the names)
May needs 158 to survive. That only needs 7 lying Tory MPs to oust her.
Anyone think there are only 7 lying Tory MPs "supporting" May?
I'm very pleased with my 7/1....0 -
It'll be no Brexit. Now she doesn't have to worry about the ERG because they've shot their bolt prematurely she can delay article 50 to avoid no-deal chaos and call a referendum. Enough of the worried middle will plump for the status quo in that ref.Mortimer said:
Ok. i think we call that pie in the sky Brexit. All sounds rosy until the obvious questions are askedSeanT said:
OK, finished work.Scott_P said:
I now see it, ahem, cough, perhaps, playing this way.
She wins. She goes for softest Brexit imaginable. Stay in CU, a renamed version of the SM, and pay money like Norway, but don't call it Norway coz that annoys the Norwegians: all this for *an unspecified period, until something better can be negotiated* (i.e. never). It is Remain minus.
This has a Common majority and DUP support. It delivers on FoM, but not on money or ECJ oversight. It is colonial status but people are beyond caring. It passes, the Tory party splits, a GE is called, Corbyn wins but he can't do anything because he's bound by EU law.
Could be worse.
1) How does she get the WA through parliament whilst pivoting to that, presumably in an updated political declaration (she'd probably lose another 50 Tory MPs if she tries, and Labour will still vote against because they're going to vote against whatever).
2) How does she get to the EU to agree to your post-transition position without FoM
There are three options, as there have been all along:
- Her deal with the WA and an uncertain post transition, to be decided by whoever succeeds her.
- No deal - managed or otherwise
- No brexit0 -
Not true of IDS in 2003/Pulpstar said:0 -
Anecdote time:
my mother overheard some people chatting in a coffee shop. They were split 2/3 in favour of May, and united against Boris. There was a suggestion Javid might succeed her.0 -
Do we get to invade the Falkland Islands?Cyclefree said:Black_Rook said:
The Conservatives have become so useless that one would probably be content to see them smashed to smithereens at an election - but for the fact that we all know whom the potential replacements are. The reign of the Hugo Chavez Memorial Society of Great Britain beckons.AmpfieldAndy said:Sticking with May gives the Tories a big headache. They are stuck with a “nothing has changed” leader peddling a Brexit deal that won’t pass unless there are major changes to the backstop which she can’t celiver.
A different approach requires a different leader; a general election requires a different leader.
Sticking with May is the political equivalent of the Charge of the Light Brigade
I fear that the Second Law may soon be affirmed by new evidence: yet another bad Prime Minister stands to be replaced by an even more useless and repellent successor.
Well if @AlastairMeeks' thread on Britain turning into Argentina turns out to be correct, it can't be long now before we get our first military dictatorship followed by a British Evita.0 -
You can sign trade deals because not in the customs union but not control borders because you are in the single market.Xenon said:What advantages does Norway+ have over remaining in the EU?
Can we sign trade deals with other countries? Control our borders?0 -
Premature ERGeckulation?Scott_P said:The ERG have gone off prematurely...
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1072871793801789440
I have not even taken my coat off yet....
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Perhaps overstating May by 10-15?TheWhiteRabbit said:
I saw your additional numbers and I agree.Sean_F said:
My informal estimate is 205 to 85.TheWhiteRabbit said:
197 to 69 requires a formidable number of people changing their minds when given a secret ballot.Mortimer said:
Takeaway is that it is much closer than the betfair market indicates.MarqueeMark said:
316 MPs (+2 if suspended MPs can vote)Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky - 164 public declarations for TM (assume they have the names)
May needs 158 to survive. That only needs 7 lying Tory MPs to oust her.
Anyone think there are only 7 lying Tory MPs "supporting" May?
I'm very pleased with my 7/1....0 -
You mean, 10 or 15 might change their mind in the booth? Or the spreadsheet is simply wrong?Sean_F said:
Perhaps overstating May by 10-15?TheWhiteRabbit said:
I saw your additional numbers and I agree.Sean_F said:
My informal estimate is 205 to 85.TheWhiteRabbit said:
197 to 69 requires a formidable number of people changing their minds when given a secret ballot.Mortimer said:
Takeaway is that it is much closer than the betfair market indicates.MarqueeMark said:
316 MPs (+2 if suspended MPs can vote)Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky - 164 public declarations for TM (assume they have the names)
May needs 158 to survive. That only needs 7 lying Tory MPs to oust her.
Anyone think there are only 7 lying Tory MPs "supporting" May?
I'm very pleased with my 7/1....0 -
The circumstances surrounding this ballot are totally different so I'm not sure that it will be the case this time.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Conservative members are very pro Brexit and anti May.
Are they lobbying their MPs?
Will the MPs take any notice, given it is a secret ballot.0 -
If May survives - significant Cabinet reshuffle?0
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Wouldn’t rule out some people declaring against her and voting differently...0
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I assume that some are not telling the truth. So, in reality, that would suggest May is currently ahead by 190-95 to 95-100.TheWhiteRabbit said:
You mean, 10 or 15 might change their mind in the booth? Or the spreadsheet is simply wrong?Sean_F said:
Perhaps overstating May by 10-15?TheWhiteRabbit said:
I saw your additional numbers and I agree.Sean_F said:
My informal estimate is 205 to 85.TheWhiteRabbit said:
197 to 69 requires a formidable number of people changing their minds when given a secret ballot.Mortimer said:
Takeaway is that it is much closer than the betfair market indicates.MarqueeMark said:
316 MPs (+2 if suspended MPs can vote)Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky - 164 public declarations for TM (assume they have the names)
May needs 158 to survive. That only needs 7 lying Tory MPs to oust her.
Anyone think there are only 7 lying Tory MPs "supporting" May?
I'm very pleased with my 7/1....0 -
I disagree. By luck or judgement the ERG have called this at a good time for them. If the vote happens with a weekend in between I would expect it to benefit May as longer periods of reflection tend to be beneficial to the status quo.JackW said:
It's called premature ERGaculationScott_P said:The ERG have gone off prematurely...
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/10728717938017894400 -
I do not think they are anti-May at all. They certainly lean heavily "Leave", but that's not the same thing.David_Evershed said:Conservative members are very pro Brexit and anti May.
Are they lobbying their MPs?
Will the MPs take any notice, given it is a secret ballot.0 -
Slut ... I was there at 3.36pm ...Beverley_C said:
Premature ERGeckulation?Scott_P said:The ERG have gone off prematurely...
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1072871793801789440
I have not even taken my coat off yet....
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Plausible. Honestly I don't know.Sean_F said:
I assume that some are not telling the truth. So, in reality, that would suggest May is currently ahead by 190-95 to 95-100.TheWhiteRabbit said:
You mean, 10 or 15 might change their mind in the booth? Or the spreadsheet is simply wrong?Sean_F said:
Perhaps overstating May by 10-15?TheWhiteRabbit said:
I saw your additional numbers and I agree.Sean_F said:
My informal estimate is 205 to 85.TheWhiteRabbit said:
197 to 69 requires a formidable number of people changing their minds when given a secret ballot.Mortimer said:
Takeaway is that it is much closer than the betfair market indicates.MarqueeMark said:
316 MPs (+2 if suspended MPs can vote)Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky - 164 public declarations for TM (assume they have the names)
May needs 158 to survive. That only needs 7 lying Tory MPs to oust her.
Anyone think there are only 7 lying Tory MPs "supporting" May?
I'm very pleased with my 7/1....
What I do know is that the movement will be almost entirely one way.0 -
If Mrs May wins, won't the Remainers demand another ballot if they don't like the result?0
-
I guess we'll find out tonightBrom said:
I disagree. By luck or judgement the ERG have called this at a good time for them. If the vote happens with a weekend in between I would expect it to benefit May as longer periods of reflection tend to be beneficial to the status quo.JackW said:
It's called premature ERGaculationScott_P said:The ERG have gone off prematurely...
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/10728717938017894400 -
Reading ConHome isn't the same as talking to members.David_Evershed said:Conservative members are very pro Brexit and anti May.
Are they lobbying their MPs?
Will the MPs take any notice, given it is a secret ballot.0 -
Problems with a referendum:RobC said:
It'll be no Brexit. Now she doesn't have to worry about the ERG because they've shot their bolt prematurely she can delay article 50 to avoid no-deal chaos and call a referendum. Enough of the worried middle will plump for the status quo in that ref.Mortimer said:
Ok. i think we call that pie in the sky Brexit. All sounds rosy until the obvious questions are askedSeanT said:
OK, finished work.Scott_P said:
I now see it, ahem, cough, perhaps, playing this way.
She wins. She goes for softest Brexit imaginable. Stay in CU, a renamed version of the SM, and pay money like Norway, but don't call it Norway coz that annoys the Norwegians: all this for *an unspecified period, until something better can be negotiated* (i.e. never). It is Remain minus.
This has a Common majority and DUP support. It delivers on FoM, but not on money or ECJ oversight. It is colonial status but people are beyond caring. It passes, the Tory party splits, a GE is called, Corbyn wins but he can't do anything because he's bound by EU law.
Could be worse.
1) How does she get the WA through parliament whilst pivoting to that, presumably in an updated political declaration (she'd probably lose another 50 Tory MPs if she tries, and Labour will still vote against because they're going to vote against whatever).
2) How does she get to the EU to agree to your post-transition position without FoM
There are three options, as there have been all along:
- Her deal with the WA and an uncertain post transition, to be decided by whoever succeeds her.
- No deal - managed or otherwise
- No brexit
*If it includes her Deal the DUP will bring the Government down
*If it doesn't then it's straight Leave versus Remain again - a huge risk given the very real possibility of a second Leave vote
*An enormous U-turn which would make May look like an obvious liar to the public (and a particular problem when most of your core vote now consists of Leavers)
*Relies on substantial backing from Labour, risks splitting her own party and, again, bringing down the Government0 -
It might be amusing to see Corbyn’s reaction assuming she wins (by any margin). He can’t exactly argue that she has effectively lost the confidence of her party and should go...0
-
Showing 197-68 now, with 50 unknown. Say those split evenly, plus Griffiths for May, then perhaps 10 C liars? 213-103, minus maybe a few abstentions.TheWhiteRabbit said:197 to 69 requires a formidable number of people changing their minds when given a secret ballot.
0 -
Contrary to what some people are claiming, I think a win by 200 to 110 would be quite sufficient for May.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Plausible. Honestly I don't know.Sean_F said:
I assume that some are not telling the truth. So, in reality, that would suggest May is currently ahead by 190-95 to 95-100.TheWhiteRabbit said:
You mean, 10 or 15 might change their mind in the booth? Or the spreadsheet is simply wrong?Sean_F said:
Perhaps overstating May by 10-15?TheWhiteRabbit said:
I saw your additional numbers and I agree.Sean_F said:
My informal estimate is 205 to 85.TheWhiteRabbit said:
197 to 69 requires a formidable number of people changing their minds when given a secret ballot.Mortimer said:
Takeaway is that it is much closer than the betfair market indicates.MarqueeMark said:
316 MPs (+2 if suspended MPs can vote)Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky - 164 public declarations for TM (assume they have the names)
May needs 158 to survive. That only needs 7 lying Tory MPs to oust her.
Anyone think there are only 7 lying Tory MPs "supporting" May?
I'm very pleased with my 7/1....
What I do know is that the movement will be almost entirely one way.0 -
I'm doing a May and sticking to prediction she loses even though it looks otherwise.0
-
I don't believe Theresa May will pivot to No Brexit. I think she will keep on trying to win support for her deal to the bitter end.RobC said:
It'll be no Brexit. Now she doesn't have to worry about the ERG because they've shot their bolt prematurely she can delay article 50 to avoid no-deal chaos and call a referendum. Enough of the worried middle will plump for the status quo in that ref.Mortimer said:
Ok. i think we call that pie in the sky Brexit. All sounds rosy until the obvious questions are askedSeanT said:
OK, finished work.Scott_P said:
I now see it, ahem, cough, perhaps, playing this way.
She wins. She goes for softest Brexit imaginable. Stay in CU, a renamed version of the SM, and pay money like Norway, but don't call it Norway coz that annoys the Norwegians: all this for *an unspecified period, until something better can be negotiated* (i.e. never). It is Remain minus.
This has a Common majority and DUP support. It delivers on FoM, but not on money or ECJ oversight. It is colonial status but people are beyond caring. It passes, the Tory party splits, a GE is called, Corbyn wins but he can't do anything because he's bound by EU law.
Could be worse.
1) How does she get the WA through parliament whilst pivoting to that, presumably in an updated political declaration (she'd probably lose another 50 Tory MPs if she tries, and Labour will still vote against because they're going to vote against whatever).
2) How does she get to the EU to agree to your post-transition position without FoM
There are three options, as there have been all along:
- Her deal with the WA and an uncertain post transition, to be decided by whoever succeeds her.
- No deal - managed or otherwise
- No brexit
At some point the Remainers will realise that the only way to force a referendum is with a referendum-supporting PM - but if the DUP support HMG that would require Tory MPs to vote against their own party in a confidence vote. Corbyn ensures that won't happen.
So then the only way to avoid no deal is to vote for the PM's deal.0 -
Does May get a vote?0
-
Yeswilliamglenn said:Does May get a vote?
0 -
Repeat after me.
The UK’s options are:
1) Deal.
2) No Deal.
3) Revoke.
Everything else is noise.0 -
Does Bercow?Sean_F said:
Yeswilliamglenn said:Does May get a vote?
0 -
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1072798008268480519Sean_F said:
Yeswilliamglenn said:Does May get a vote?
0 -
Bercow and Elphicke don't. So those nominal Tories should cancel.williamglenn said:Does May get a vote?
0 -
The ERG have royally cocked this up. They went off half cock a fortnight ago with JRM willy waving only to find out the fig leaf was barely big enough to cover their embarrassment and now they have limp-dicked over the 48 line with all the fanfare of a used condom in a whore house.Brom said:
I disagree. By luck or judgement the ERG have called this at a good time for them. If the vote happens with a weekend in between I would expect it to benefit May as longer periods of reflection tend to be beneficial to the status quo.JackW said:
It's called premature ERGaculationScott_P said:The ERG have gone off prematurely...
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1072871793801789440
I wouldn't trust them to organise a decent sex party at SeanT's luxury bordello in Thailand !!0 -
No he doesn't answer to the Conservative whip.Stark_Dawning said:
Does Bercow?Sean_F said:
Yeswilliamglenn said:Does May get a vote?
0 -
We are at the point now where all that really matters is whether an option is better than an unplanned no deal and can command majority support in the House. With any luck the ERG will be a busted flush and nobody has to appease them any furtherXenon said:
Norway are in Schengen though.grabcocque said:
No, and yes.Xenon said:What advantages does Norway+ have over remaining in the EU?
Can we sign trade deals with other countries? Control our borders?
It all seems completely pointless.0 -
So if as seems likely May wins, the DUP suddenly have fewer options available.
If Corbyn was smart about it he could effectively force the DUP to VONC the government - he could threaten to whip his party to vote in favour of the deal while tabling a vote f no confidence in the government straight after. the DUP would have little choice but to VONC, and Corbyn gets his early election. If the DUP didn’t agree to VONC they would be stuck with an existentially bad deal for them.
Edit : the idea would be that the DUP avoid the deal passing and agree to withdraw support for government.0 -
I reckon it'll be 200-100, give or take. Enough.Sean_F said:
Contrary to what some people are claiming, I think a win by 200 to 110 would be quite sufficient for May.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Plausible. Honestly I don't know.Sean_F said:
I assume that some are not telling the truth. So, in reality, that would suggest May is currently ahead by 190-95 to 95-100.TheWhiteRabbit said:
You mean, 10 or 15 might change their mind in the booth? Or the spreadsheet is simply wrong?Sean_F said:
Perhaps overstating May by 10-15?TheWhiteRabbit said:
I saw your additional numbers and I agree.Sean_F said:
My informal estimate is 205 to 85.TheWhiteRabbit said:
197 to 69 requires a formidable number of people changing their minds when given a secret ballot.Mortimer said:
Takeaway is that it is much closer than the betfair market indicates.MarqueeMark said:
316 MPs (+2 if suspended MPs can vote)Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky - 164 public declarations for TM (assume they have the names)
May needs 158 to survive. That only needs 7 lying Tory MPs to oust her.
Anyone think there are only 7 lying Tory MPs "supporting" May?
I'm very pleased with my 7/1....
What I do know is that the movement will be almost entirely one way.
Hearing that I may be wrong about Charlie Elphicke - that's a shocking call if so with a trial ongoing (and the jury delibrating!)
And what a day for the return of Jack W! I hope the Lib Dem canvassers have been keeping you satisfied and occupied Sir...
-1 -
4) Amended deal.RoyalBlue said:Repeat after me.
The UK’s options are:
1) Deal.
2) No Deal.
3) Revoke.
Everything else is noise.
There are always room for 11th hour amendments with the EU.0 -
May clinging on when 100+ of her MPs think she is inept would require an intervention.SeanT said:
More than that.Sean_F said:
Contrary to what some people are claiming, I think a win by 200 to 110 would be quite sufficient for May.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Plausible. Honestly I don't know.Sean_F said:
I assume that some are not telling the truth. So, in reality, that would suggest May is currently ahead by 190-95 to 95-100.TheWhiteRabbit said:
You mean, 10 or 15 might change their mind in the booth? Or the spreadsheet is simply wrong?Sean_F said:
Perhaps overstating May by 10-15?TheWhiteRabbit said:
I saw your additional numbers and I agree.Sean_F said:
My informal estimate is 205 to 85.TheWhiteRabbit said:
197 to 69 requires a formidable number of people changing their minds when given a secret ballot.Mortimer said:
Takeaway is that it is much closer than the betfair market indicates.MarqueeMark said:
316 MPs (+2 if suspended MPs can vote)Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky - 164 public declarations for TM (assume they have the names)
May needs 158 to survive. That only needs 7 lying Tory MPs to oust her.
Anyone think there are only 7 lying Tory MPs "supporting" May?
I'm very pleased with my 7/1....
What I do know is that the movement will be almost entirely one way.
We can bin all precedents. We live in a new era. Therefore I think that result would be seen, in the circs, as a positive triumph. A 2 to 1 victory? Corbyn LOST his by 3 to 1, remember.
She'd be totally vindicated, and the ERG humbled and enfeebled.
0 -
Cocking up would be getting 47 letters. They've done what they needed and the extra week's wait will have helped the cause given May's deal has fallen back in the polling. I do however think she will survive by 40-60 votes.JackW said:
The ERG have royally cocked this up. They went off half cock a fortnight ago with JRM willy waving only to find out the fig leaf was barely big enough to cover their embarrassment and now they have limp-dicked over the 48 line with all the fanfare of a used condom in a whore house.Brom said:
I disagree. By luck or judgement the ERG have called this at a good time for them. If the vote happens with a weekend in between I would expect it to benefit May as longer periods of reflection tend to be beneficial to the status quo.JackW said:
It's called premature ERGaculationScott_P said:The ERG have gone off prematurely...
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1072871793801789440
I wouldn't trust them to organise a decent sex party at SeanT's luxury bordello in Thailand !!0 -
Correct. And if the government won't deliver No Deal, and parliament won't vote for either a deal or for revocation, the only option is a (binding) second referendum between the deal and Remain.RoyalBlue said:Repeat after me.
The UK’s options are:
1) Deal.
2) No Deal.
3) Revoke.
Everything else is noise.0 -
His constituency party members wanting him to vote against May - as most constituency parties appear to want.tlg86 said:
What would make an MP, who was going to vote for May, keep quiet about it? If we think it's an unlikely scenario, then it could be very close tonight.MarqueeMark said:
316 MPs (+2 if suspended MPs can vote)Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky - 164 public declarations for TM (assume they have the names)
May needs 158 to survive. That only needs 7 lying Tory MPs to oust her.
Anyone think there are only 7 lying Tory MPs "supporting" May?0 -
Not at all, there will always be the option of revoking article 50, and if we get into March without agreement on a deal I think Parliament will take that option. Remainers will support it for obvious reasons and opponents of May's deal will support it because they will kid themselves that it's only a temporary pause in the process. But revokation will, in practice, be the end of the story.OblitusSumMe said:
I don't believe Theresa May will pivot to No Brexit. I think she will keep on trying to win support for her deal to the bitter end.RobC said:
It'll be no Brexit. Now she doesn't have to worry about the ERG because they've shot their bolt prematurely she can delay article 50 to avoid no-deal chaos and call a referendum. Enough of the worried middle will plump for the status quo in that ref.Mortimer said:
Ok. i think we call that pie in the sky Brexit. All sounds rosy until the obvious questions are askedSeanT said:
OK, finished work.Scott_P said:
I now see it, ahem, cough, perhaps, playing this way.
She wins. She goes for softest Brexit imaginable. Stay in CU, a renamed version of the SM, and pay money like Norway, but don't call it Norway coz that annoys the Norwegians: all this for *an unspecified period, until something better can be negotiated* (i.e. never). It is Remain minus.
This has a Common majority and DUP support. It delivers on FoM, but not on money or ECJ oversight. It is colonial status but people are beyond caring. It passes, the Tory party splits, a GE is called, Corbyn wins but he can't do anything because he's bound by EU law.
Could be worse.
1) How does she get the WA through parliament whilst pivoting to that, presumably in an updated political declaration (she'd probably lose another 50 Tory MPs if she tries, and Labour will still vote against because they're going to vote against whatever).
2) How does she get to the EU to agree to your post-transition position without FoM
There are three options, as there have been all along:
- Her deal with the WA and an uncertain post transition, to be decided by whoever succeeds her.
- No deal - managed or otherwise
- No brexit
At some point the Remainers will realise that the only way to force a referendum is with a referendum-supporting PM - but if the DUP support HMG that would require Tory MPs to vote against their own party in a confidence vote. Corbyn ensures that won't happen.
So then the only way to avoid no deal is to vote for the PM's deal.0 -
Yes, but they won't be substantive, so unless a load of MPs really, really want a face saving way to flip-flop on the deal, it doesn't change much.Philip_Thompson said:
4) Amended deal.RoyalBlue said:Repeat after me.
The UK’s options are:
1) Deal.
2) No Deal.
3) Revoke.
Everything else is noise.
There are always room for 11th hour amendments with the EU.0 -
The Telegraph's tally of MPs publically supporting May is up to 168 with just over 2 hours before voting starts. At the current rate, it will creep up to just over 60% by 6pm. That is in fact a perilously tight margin, once you allow for the likelihood that some will act differently when casting a secret ballot.0
-
Labour won't be blackmailed to vote for the deal. Neither will most others in the house of commons. If the Tories want no deal they will get it, I wonder if some Conservatives will get cold feet about doing that to the country though...OblitusSumMe said:
I don't believe Theresa May will pivot to No Brexit. I think she will keep on trying to win support for her deal to the bitter end.RobC said:
It'll be no Brexit. Now she doesn't have to worry about the ERG because they've shot their bolt prematurely she can delay article 50 to avoid no-deal chaos and call a referendum. Enough of the worried middle will plump for the status quo in that ref.Mortimer said:
Ok. i think we call that pie in the sky Brexit. All sounds rosy until the obvious questions are askedSeanT said:
OK, finished work.Scott_P said:
I now see it, ahem, cough, perhaps, playing this way.
She wins. She goes for softest Brexit imaginable. Stay in CU, a renamed version of the SM, and pay money like Norway, but don't call it Norway coz that annoys the Norwegians: all this for *an unspecified period, until something better can be negotiated* (i.e. never). It is Remain minus.
This has a Common majority and DUP support. It delivers on FoM, but not on money or ECJ oversight. It is colonial status but people are beyond caring. It passes, the Tory party splits, a GE is called, Corbyn wins but he can't do anything because he's bound by EU law.
Could be worse.
1) How does she get the WA through parliament whilst pivoting to that, presumably in an updated political declaration (she'd probably lose another 50 Tory MPs if she tries, and Labour will still vote against because they're going to vote against whatever).
2) How does she get to the EU to agree to your post-transition position without FoM
There are three options, as there have been all along:
- Her deal with the WA and an uncertain post transition, to be decided by whoever succeeds her.
- No deal - managed or otherwise
- No brexit
At some point the Remainers will realise that the only way to force a referendum is with a referendum-supporting PM - but if the DUP support HMG that would require Tory MPs to vote against their own party in a confidence vote. Corbyn ensures that won't happen.
So then the only way to avoid no deal is to vote for the PM's deal.0 -
I refer the Honourable Gentleman to the sometime misquoted Mark Twain ...SeanT said:
Huzzah! Jack W lives.JackW said:
Slut ... I was there at 3.36pm ...Beverley_C said:
Premature ERGeckulation?Scott_P said:The ERG have gone off prematurely...
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1072871793801789440
I have not even taken my coat off yet....
0 -
AmpfieldAndy said:
Sticking with May gives the Tories a big headache. They are stuck with a “nothing has changed” leader peddling a Brexit deal that won’t pass unless there are major changes to the backstop which she can’t celiver.
A different approach requires a different leader; a general election requires a different leader.
Sticking with May is the political equivalent of the Charge of the Light Brigade
But everyone knows what the ERG's "different approach" would be and like it even less than where we are now0 -
Showing 197-68 now, with 50 unknown. Say those split evenly, plus Griffiths for May, then perhaps 10 C liars? 213-103, minus maybe a few abstentions.TheWhiteRabbit said:197 to 69 requires a formidable number of people changing their minds when given a secret ballot.
David_Evershed said:
Being a Graham Brady?tlg86 said:
What would make an MP, who was going to vote for May, keep quiet about it? If we think it's an unlikely scenario, then it could be very close tonight.MarqueeMark said:
316 MPs (+2 if suspended MPs can vote)Big_G_NorthWales said:Sky - 164 public declarations for TM (assume they have the names)
May needs 158 to survive. That only needs 7 lying Tory MPs to oust her.
Anyone think there are only 7 lying Tory MPs "supporting" May?0 -
The choice isn't May or ERG. There are a few candidates in the middle ground.OllyT said:AmpfieldAndy said:Sticking with May gives the Tories a big headache. They are stuck with a “nothing has changed” leader peddling a Brexit deal that won’t pass unless there are major changes to the backstop which she can’t celiver.
A different approach requires a different leader; a general election requires a different leader.
Sticking with May is the political equivalent of the Charge of the Light Brigade
But everyone knows what the ERG's "different approach" would be and like it even less than where we are now
Plus they don't have May's baggage.0 -
Surely if it comes down to the difference of a handful of votes she is toast anyway.Scott_P said:0 -
Ruddy hell it's only JackW ain't it gawd blimey.JackW said:The ERG have gone off prematurely...
0 -
Mr W!!!!JackW said:
Slut ... I was there at 3.36pm ...Beverley_C said:
Premature ERGeckulation?Scott_P said:The ERG have gone off prematurely...
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1072871793801789440
I have not even taken my coat off yet.... 0 -
Certainly not everyone and maybe not a majority. No one with a brain should want a Corbyn Gov though which would result from sticking with May.OllyT said:AmpfieldAndy said:Sticking with May gives the Tories a big headache. They are stuck with a “nothing has changed” leader peddling a Brexit deal that won’t pass unless there are major changes to the backstop which she can’t celiver.
A different approach requires a different leader; a general election requires a different leader.
Sticking with May is the political equivalent of the Charge of the Light Brigade
But everyone knows what the ERG's "different approach" would be and like it even less than where we are now0 -
Yes this is looking very, very desperate from Team May if they're so unsure of the result they've got to start promoting people who have had the whip withdrawn.FrancisUrquhart said:
Surely if it comes down to the difference of a handful of votes she is toast anyway.Scott_P said:0
This discussion has been closed.