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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If punters risking their cash have got this right TMay’s safe
Betfair and the other bookies were quick off the mark this morning getting markets up following news that tonight we will see a confidence vote amongst Conservative MPs on Theresa May.
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secret ballot.0
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Not playing this market further, nor the SPIN traitor market.
I think she's going to lose but the fear of Gove, Boris, or an ERG wingnut taking over might just save her.0 -
However the vote goes tonight, it seems unlikely to improve the arithmetic with regards to her deal. The "prize" of winning the leadership challenge will be to have hardened the screaming anger of her backbenches determined not to vote for it or for her.
So forget the "she's safe for a year" bit - she won't be able to command the confidence of the House on this the only issue of import.0 -
Here comes Jezbollah to spend his 6 questions discussing bus services in rural Northumberland0
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The “most sophisticated electorate in the world” - glad to see irony is not dead!0
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The only certainty is that christmas will be a blessed relief, and break, from the endless run of the disaster.0
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Agreed. It makes it harder to shift her but numbers are numbers and if cannot act it doesn't matter.RochdalePioneers said:However the vote goes tonight, it seems unlikely to improve the arithmetic with regards to her deal. The "prize" of winning the leadership challenge will be to have hardened the screaming anger of her backbenches determined not to vote for it or for her.
So forget the "she's safe for a year" bit - she won't be able to command the confidence of the House on this the only issue of import.
Not if the disaster is on going. I won't be able to enjoy my roast lamb and Christmas pudding.WhisperingOracle said:The only certainty is that christmas will be a blessed relief, and break, from the disaster.
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Interesting Corbyn play - we want the vote0
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Lose lose, or won but not enough to prevent a need to resign lose?TheScreamingEagles said:Not playing this market further, nor the SPIN traitor market.
I think she's going to lose but the fear of Gove, Boris, or an ERG wingnut taking over might just save her.0 -
VONC ?RochdalePioneers said:Interesting Corbyn play - we want the vote
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Not sure I'd enjoy that combination either.kle4 said:
Agreed. It makes it harder to shift her but numbers are numbers and if cannot act it doesn't matter.RochdalePioneers said:However the vote goes tonight, it seems unlikely to improve the arithmetic with regards to her deal. The "prize" of winning the leadership challenge will be to have hardened the screaming anger of her backbenches determined not to vote for it or for her.
So forget the "she's safe for a year" bit - she won't be able to command the confidence of the House on this the only issue of import.
Not if the disaster is on going. I won't be able to enjoy my roast lamb and Christmas pudding.WhisperingOracle said:The only certainty is that christmas will be a blessed relief, and break, from the disaster.
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I think this is the key point. We can speculate about what will happen if she loses, but what will happen if she survives? The parliamentary arithmetic remains the same either way.RochdalePioneers said:However the vote goes tonight, it seems unlikely to improve the arithmetic with regards to her deal. The "prize" of winning the leadership challenge will be to have hardened the screaming anger of her backbenches determined not to vote for it or for her.
So forget the "she's safe for a year" bit - she won't be able to command the confidence of the House on this the only issue of import.0 -
Even today she still is a mountain mile ahead of Corbyn0
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He was wise not to table a Commons VONC.RochdalePioneers said:Interesting Corbyn play - we want the vote
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Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I salute your loyalty.Big_G_NorthWales said:Even today she still is a mountain mile ahead of Corbyn
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How can Corbyn scream that she is acting contemptuously of the House and then NOT make a specific point about it? She's frit. He's frit. They're just talking at each other. Its pointless.0
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Haha! I'm thinking of Nicholas Soames right now.Benpointer said:The “most sophisticated electorate in the world” - glad to see irony is not dead!
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I think she will have to offer / threaten the HoC a 2nd ref: back my deal or else we will defer A50 and take the decision to the country.Richard_Nabavi said:
I think this is the key point. We can speculate about what will happen if she loses, but what will happen if she survives? The parliamentary arithmetic remains the same either way.RochdalePioneers said:However the vote goes tonight, it seems unlikely to improve the arithmetic with regards to her deal. The "prize" of winning the leadership challenge will be to have hardened the screaming anger of her backbenches determined not to vote for it or for her.
So forget the "she's safe for a year" bit - she won't be able to command the confidence of the House on this the only issue of import.0 -
I think she will win. That famous tin ear and a d*mn-you-all attitude means that if she gets 158+ she will stay.TheScreamingEagles said:Not playing this market further, nor the SPIN traitor market.
I think she's going to lose but the fear of Gove, Boris, or an ERG wingnut taking over might just save her.
The question is - are there 158 loons in the Tory party? Today's the day we find out.0 -
SPIN traitor market nudging up to 108. With the caveat that I'm not going to touch it, I'd guess 35%+ should be the midpoint. That's 110 if everyone votes, but ......
The unknown: will a substantial number refuse to vote for either? In 1995 Major beat Redwood 218-89, but there were 8 abstentions, 12 spoiled, 2 didn't vote.0 -
If May wins I think the ERG will completely stuffed. May can come to parliament and offer a free vote, saying 'here is my deal, take it or leave it'. If the deal is rejected then a motion to revoke A50 can be put. If carried, BREXIT is over; if lost we leave with no deal. MPs need to stop going round in circles, wittering about a people's vote and instead recognise that there are only three choices. Put in that way I would expect revocation to prevail.0
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Come on Jeremy. Call her a gutless yellow coward.0
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So realistically how many does she need to win this by in order to survive? 50+?0
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If she loses it's hard to see how the Tories avoid a split. The membership will go for an ERG candidate and this will drive out Europhile MPs. If the MPs don't give the membership the choice of an ERG candidate this will drive out a good number of members.TheScreamingEagles said:Not playing this market further, nor the SPIN traitor market.
I think she's going to lose but the fear of Gove, Boris, or an ERG wingnut taking over might just save her.
But even if she wins it will only be a short stay of execution, there will be a substantial number of votes against her - more than 100 I would say. I think she will try to carry on in those circumstances but her authority will be no more than that of the Downing Street cat, there is no way that she could push any withdrawal deal through the Commons.0 -
The I want to go back and enjoy my Christmas Pudding vibe might save May as well. Far better than spending the holiday fretting about leadership elections.kle4 said:
Agreed. It makes it harder to shift her but numbers are numbers and if cannot act it doesn't matter.RochdalePioneers said:However the vote goes tonight, it seems unlikely to improve the arithmetic with regards to her deal. The "prize" of winning the leadership challenge will be to have hardened the screaming anger of her backbenches determined not to vote for it or for her.
So forget the "she's safe for a year" bit - she won't be able to command the confidence of the House on this the only issue of import.
Not if the disaster is on going. I won't be able to enjoy my roast lamb and Christmas pudding.WhisperingOracle said:The only certainty is that christmas will be a blessed relief, and break, from the disaster.
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May either needs to win big, or lose. A result of something like 160-130 would be horrendous for the Tories.0
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By 1. The old realities no longer exist.FrancisUrquhart said:So realistically how many does she need to win this by in order to survive? 50+?
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Perhaps the swivel-eyed loons will withdraw themselves from the whip and leave her stranded. A sort of DUP++Richard_Nabavi said:
I think this is the key point. We can speculate about what will happen if she loses, but what will happen if she survives? The parliamentary arithmetic remains the same either way.RochdalePioneers said:However the vote goes tonight, it seems unlikely to improve the arithmetic with regards to her deal. The "prize" of winning the leadership challenge will be to have hardened the screaming anger of her backbenches determined not to vote for it or for her.
So forget the "she's safe for a year" bit - she won't be able to command the confidence of the House on this the only issue of import.
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Corbyn stayed on with 190 odd against didn;'t he !Benpointer said:
By 1. The old realities no longer exist.FrancisUrquhart said:So realistically how many does she need to win this by in order to survive? 50+?
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Thick as pig shit.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
John Major said he would have resigned if he'd got less than 65% support in 1995 vs John Redwood. That seems like a very high bar compared to today.Benpointer said:
By 1. The old realities no longer exist.FrancisUrquhart said:So realistically how many does she need to win this by in order to survive? 50+?
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She is taking Corbyn apart0
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Indeed. Makes a "she doesn't have the confidence of her MPs" line a bit awks.Pulpstar said:
Corbyn stayed on with 190 odd against didn;'t he !Benpointer said:
By 1. The old realities no longer exist.FrancisUrquhart said:So realistically how many does she need to win this by in order to survive? 50+?
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Remember folks. Its in the best interests of the Labour Party that May wins with gaping political wounds in her side. Thats why Corbyn has allowed May to utterly humiliate him.
Obviously.0 -
She's full of shit, more like.Big_G_NorthWales said:She is taking Corbyn apart
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John Major was a "high bar" compared to today's political pygmies.AndyJS said:
John Major said he would have resigned if he'd got less than 65% support in 1995 vs John Redwood. That seems like a very high bar compared to today.Benpointer said:
By 1. The old realities no longer exist.FrancisUrquhart said:So realistically how many does she need to win this by in order to survive? 50+?
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Sad responseSandyRentool said:
She's full of shit, more like.Big_G_NorthWales said:She is taking Corbyn apart
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I think the prospect of that will force her out tonight.Pulpstar said:May either needs to win big, or lose. A result of something like 160-130 would be horrendous for the Tories.
My book: i'm on *May to lose confidence vote* for decent stakes at 3/1, 4/1 & 5/10 -
Mrs C, please clarify: do you consider loons to be the ones voting for May, or against her?
Mr. Pulpstar, nonsense. The Supreme Leader won an overwhelming victory, with 40 MPs bravely supporting his undoubted mastery of the party, and a paltry 170 or so lickspittle capitalist pigdogs opposing him for their own bourgeois reasons.0 -
She is a Tory, not a Lib Dem!RochdalePioneers said:Come on Jeremy. Call her a gutless yellow coward.
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Let me guess - Masterton's question - Will the PM agree the sun always shines under a Tory Gov't.0
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The 'inconstant Gardener' line is a good one - but one that won't reach beyond a very small bubble.
But she is being combative - which is what was needed today.
Shouty Corbyn doesn't have a plan - and being Shouty McShoutface won't hide that0 -
Eight dimensional chess. Corbyn's a strategic genius.RochdalePioneers said:Remember folks. Its in the best interests of the Labour Party that May wins with gaping political wounds in her side. Thats why Corbyn has allowed May to utterly humiliate him.
Obviously.0 -
I think she misjudged the mood of the house on the last question when she was trying to crack jokes at Corbyn's expense.Big_G_NorthWales said:She is taking Corbyn apart
Tory backbenches seemed silent. And unimpressed...0 -
It makes for a good 20s instanta video though.oxfordsimon said:The 'inconstant Gardener' line is a good one - but one that won't reach beyond a very small bubble.
But she is being combative - which is what was needed today.
Shouty Corbyn doesn't have a plan - and being Shouty McShoutface won't hide that0 -
You are listening to a different pmqs to meGIN1138 said:
I think she misjudged the mood of the house on the last question when she was trying to crack jokes at Corbyn's expense.Big_G_NorthWales said:She is taking Corbyn apart
Tory backbenches seems silent. And unimpressed...0 -
I bet Sunil's got a graph for that one. (No Sunil, please, don't! It was a joke!)Morris_Dancer said:Mrs C, please clarify: do you consider loons to be the ones voting for May, or against her?
Mr. Pulpstar, nonsense. The Supreme Leader won an overwhelming victory, with 40 MPs bravely supporting his undoubted mastery of the party, and a paltry 170 or so lickspittle capitalist pigdogs opposing him for their own bourgeois reasons.0 -
Extended version: She doesn't answer the questions, sounds robotic, deflects from the topic by ranting on about Labour and looking back at the referendum.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sad responseSandyRentool said:
She's full of shit, more like.Big_G_NorthWales said:She is taking Corbyn apart
She is truly hopeless and is unfit for high office.0 -
Really - hypocritical bonking grey man John led the party to one of their worst defeats in historyBeverley_C said:
John Major was a "high bar" compared to today's political pygmies.AndyJS said:
John Major said he would have resigned if he'd got less than 65% support in 1995 vs John Redwood. That seems like a very high bar compared to today.Benpointer said:
By 1. The old realities no longer exist.FrancisUrquhart said:So realistically how many does she need to win this by in order to survive? 50+?
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My word she got from the Commons to No 10 quickly. Watching Ch 4.0
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Sajid Javid says a leadership contest will be seen as "self-indulgent and wrong". Not like his own leadership bid published in the Spectator shortly before Graham Brady's announcement then?0
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She isn't really. She's simply attacking Labour rather than answering key and important questions. She is doing it competently enough that it might swing a few more Tory MP votes her way.Big_G_NorthWales said:She is taking Corbyn apart
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Confess, I am not listening but that bastion of the right-wing press the Gaurdian seems to agree with Big_G today:GIN1138 said:
I think she misjudged the mood of the house on the last question when she was trying to crack jokes at Corbyn's expense.Big_G_NorthWales said:She is taking Corbyn apart
Tory backbenches seems silent. And unimpressed...
"May says, whatever U-turn comes next in Labour’s policy, Corbyn will sent out his henchmen to reveal it to the world - the “inconstant gardner”. Someone will explain the joke to Corbyn later, she says.
Tories cheer loudly."0 -
Honesty. Modesty. Compassion.Norm said:
Really - hypocritical bonking grey man John led the party to one of their worst defeats in historyBeverley_C said:
John Major was a "high bar" compared to today's political pygmies.AndyJS said:
John Major said he would have resigned if he'd got less than 65% support in 1995 vs John Redwood. That seems like a very high bar compared to today.Benpointer said:
By 1. The old realities no longer exist.FrancisUrquhart said:So realistically how many does she need to win this by in order to survive? 50+?
A giant compared to the pond scum that represents the Tory Party factions today0 -
Corbyn isn't asking key questions. He is posturing, preening and ignoring the logical and political inconsistencies in his own position(s)Barnesian said:
She isn't really. She's simply attacking Labour rather than answering key and important questions. She is doing it competently enough that it might swing a few more Tory MP votes her way.Big_G_NorthWales said:She is taking Corbyn apart
All he can do is jump on yet another outrage bus - he hasn't got a positive contribution to make.0 -
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Labour don't want a new tory leader, do they? I don't immediately see why they would.0
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Its increasingly difficult for Tory MPs to say that people can't change their mind on Brexit and have a vote when apparently its ok for those same Tory MPs to change their minds on the leadership and have a vote?0
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I didn't understand the inconstant gardener gag – can someone explain it to me?oxfordsimon said:The 'inconstant Gardener' line is a good one - but one that won't reach beyond a very small bubble.
But she is being combative - which is what was needed today.
Shouty Corbyn doesn't have a plan - and being Shouty McShoutface won't hide that0 -
This "swivel-eyed loons" nonsense being frothed at anyone that doesn't want to follow May's completely failed strategy has to stop.Beverley_C said:
Perhaps the swivel-eyed loons will withdraw themselves from the whip and leave her stranded. A sort of DUP++Richard_Nabavi said:
I think this is the key point. We can speculate about what will happen if she loses, but what will happen if she survives? The parliamentary arithmetic remains the same either way.RochdalePioneers said:However the vote goes tonight, it seems unlikely to improve the arithmetic with regards to her deal. The "prize" of winning the leadership challenge will be to have hardened the screaming anger of her backbenches determined not to vote for it or for her.
So forget the "she's safe for a year" bit - she won't be able to command the confidence of the House on this the only issue of import.
Her crap deal can't get through parliament get over it.0 -
Not sure if anyone has asked this yet but who holds the record for shortest term as PM? I am imagining a scenario where Boris wins the Tory leadership but then immediately loses a VONC in the House.0
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Benpointer said:
The Loons will vote against her. I am hoping that the Tory party does not consist of 159 loons and assorted other folk....Morris_Dancer said:Mrs C, please clarify: do you consider loons to be the ones voting for May, or against her?
Today we find out.0 -
Le Carre, allotments, etc. I guess.Anazina said:
I didn't understand the inconstant gardener gag – can someone explain it to me?oxfordsimon said:The 'inconstant Gardener' line is a good one - but one that won't reach beyond a very small bubble.
But she is being combative - which is what was needed today.
Shouty Corbyn doesn't have a plan - and being Shouty McShoutface won't hide that0 -
If May could get Parliament to finally commit to some course of action then she would, arguably, have done the country a great service - even if said course of action is bound to be widely loathed in the country, because the country is so split. Though I would say that, because I'm hoping above all to avoid another referendum.PeterC said:If May wins I think the ERG will completely stuffed. May can come to parliament and offer a free vote, saying 'here is my deal, take it or leave it'. If the deal is rejected then a motion to revoke A50 can be put. If carried, BREXIT is over; if lost we leave with no deal. MPs need to stop going round in circles, wittering about a people's vote and instead recognise that there are only three choices. Put in that way I would expect revocation to prevail.
That said, there's absolutely nothing in her behaviour to date which suggests that she would commit to such a course of action. If she survives tonight's motion of confidence then she might just spend the whole period between now and March 29th offering nothing but her deal or no deal, and playing a game of chicken with the House of Commons over the choice.0 -
A defeat caused in part by some of the same Eurosceptic bottom-feeders who are now trying to bring Mrs May down.Norm said:
Really - hypocritical bonking grey man John led the party to one of their worst defeats in historyBeverley_C said:
John Major was a "high bar" compared to today's political pygmies.AndyJS said:
John Major said he would have resigned if he'd got less than 65% support in 1995 vs John Redwood. That seems like a very high bar compared to today.Benpointer said:
By 1. The old realities no longer exist.FrancisUrquhart said:So realistically how many does she need to win this by in order to survive? 50+?
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Film: Constant Gardener.Carolus_Rex said:
Le Carre, allotments, etc. I guess.Anazina said:
I didn't understand the inconstant gardener gag – can someone explain it to me?oxfordsimon said:The 'inconstant Gardener' line is a good one - but one that won't reach beyond a very small bubble.
But she is being combative - which is what was needed today.
Shouty Corbyn doesn't have a plan - and being Shouty McShoutface won't hide that
Inconsistent Labour MP: Barry Gardiner.
Oh my sides, etc, etc.0 -
The ERG disproved zeno's paradox.
47.999999999999... = 480 -
Ken Clarke hits the nail on the head and gives big boost to TM0
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Ken Clarke being very helpful to the bloody difficult woman.0
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Theresa May cancels this evening's vote of confidence in her leadership - http://bit.ly/2BcqzuB via @newsthump0
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Helpfully the Daily Mail has a list of possible Tory leader contenders. Let’s examine their records.
Dominic Raab – a man who, despite having a seat in the South East, was unaware of the importance of the Dover – Calais route to Britain’s trade
Andrea Leadsom – famous or, perhaps, infamous for having allowed a wholly exaggerated account of her work and pre-Parliamentary experience to be put about. In normal circles, such exaggerations are known as lies and would get you disciplined and/or sacked not promoted to the Cabinet, where she has shone at nothing.
Sajid Javid – an ex-investment banker from Deutsche Bank (a red flag in itself) with all the charisma of a Dalek. His main claim to be leader is, apparently, where he was brought up. Perhaps we could make his Mum and Dad leader instead.
Amber Rudd – has a tiny majority, a questionable City career behind her and was not well-served by her officials at the Home Office. But at least had the decency and balls to show up at debates. Has been rude about Boris Johnson. So there is that in favour of her.
Penny Mordaunt – lied during the referendum about Turkey’s accession. Can swim. And make speeches with double entendres in them. If the House of Commons ever needs a front of house manager for its gym, she’d be a shoo-in.
Jacob Rees-Mogg – Jesus wept.
Gavin Williamson – Embarrassed himself and the country by shouting “shut up” at Russia during the Skripal affair. Could we not give him some raffia baskets to play with instead?
Michael Gove – has a brain. But not as big a brain as he thinks he has. Utterly untrustworthy. Is apparently doing good work at Defra. He should stay there.
Boris Johnson – a serial liar. His only achievement as Foreign Secretary was to ensure that a British citizen locked up abroad in a country not known for its good treatment of women prisoners had her sentence lengthened.
David Davis – lazy, self-important and achieved nothing as Brexit Secretary. Has spent the rest of the time concocting a fairy story that if he had only been given power he could have achieved wondrous things. Everything he said about Brexit before he became Brexit secretary has turned out to be a lie or wrong.
Jeremy Hunt – gets confused about where his wife is from. Claimed that the EU was like the Soviet Union, his combination of offensiveness and historical inaccuracy doubtless an attempt to make people remember who he is.
Esther McVey – Managed to lose her seat in 2015. No other known achievements.
Oh – a late entrant.
My cat – conveniently at the vet today having an operation. Calm and affectionate. Comes from Birmingham and has fathered 4 kittens. So should sew up the Midlands family vote. No other achievements and knows nothing at all about Brexit (or anything else, for that matter, other than the most comfortable chairs and when dinner time is). But that, surely, should not be an insuperable objection?
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George Canning, 119 days.Richard_Tyndall said:Not sure if anyone has asked this yet but who holds the record for shortest term as PM? I am imagining a scenario where Boris wins the Tory leadership but then immediately loses a VONC in the House.
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Yes, I know that Corbyn is a gardener (so what?), and that there is a Le Carre book called the Constant Gardener but what is the link? – I don't get it.Carolus_Rex said:
Le Carre, allotments, etc. I guess.Anazina said:
I didn't understand the inconstant gardener gag – can someone explain it to me?oxfordsimon said:The 'inconstant Gardener' line is a good one - but one that won't reach beyond a very small bubble.
But she is being combative - which is what was needed today.
Shouty Corbyn doesn't have a plan - and being Shouty McShoutface won't hide that0 -
I think May will see off the baying mob and rise to further greatness like Justinian after Nika.
That ones for MD.0 -
Don't worry, Corbyn didn't understand it either.Anazina said:
I didn't understand the inconstant gardener gag – can someone explain it to me?oxfordsimon said:The 'inconstant Gardener' line is a good one - but one that won't reach beyond a very small bubble.
But she is being combative - which is what was needed today.
Shouty Corbyn doesn't have a plan - and being Shouty McShoutface won't hide that
He's obviously not a Le Carre fan - the wrong side tends to win in his novels!0 -
The Churchill quote seems appropriate.RochdalePioneers said:
Honesty. Modesty. Compassion.Norm said:
Really - hypocritical bonking grey man John led the party to one of their worst defeats in historyBeverley_C said:
John Major was a "high bar" compared to today's political pygmies.AndyJS said:
John Major said he would have resigned if he'd got less than 65% support in 1995 vs John Redwood. That seems like a very high bar compared to today.Benpointer said:
By 1. The old realities no longer exist.FrancisUrquhart said:So realistically how many does she need to win this by in order to survive? 50+?
A giant compared to the pond scum that represents the Tory Party factions today
A modest man with much to be modest about.0 -
If May wins this, I think it could make it a lot easier to peel the DUP off to support a parliamentary VONC.
That want the deal gone, they (with a heavy heart) therefore need May gone. If the Tories remove one alleyway for removing May, the DUP would presumably more likely to support the other?0 -
Barry Gardiner...Anazina said:
Yes, I know that Corbyn is a gardener (so what?), and that there is a Le Carre book called the Constant Gardener but what is the link? – I don't get it.Carolus_Rex said:
Le Carre, allotments, etc. I guess.Anazina said:
I didn't understand the inconstant gardener gag – can someone explain it to me?oxfordsimon said:The 'inconstant Gardener' line is a good one - but one that won't reach beyond a very small bubble.
But she is being combative - which is what was needed today.
Shouty Corbyn doesn't have a plan - and being Shouty McShoutface won't hide that0 -
Is there anything to prevent Arlene Foster being made PM? *innocentface*0
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Yes, probably. We're pretty screwedBlack_Rook said:
If May could get Parliament to finally commit to some course of action then she would, arguably, have done the country a great service - even if said course of action is bound to be widely loathed in the country, because the country is so split. Though I would say that, because I'm hoping above all to avoid another referendum.PeterC said:If May wins I think the ERG will completely stuffed. May can come to parliament and offer a free vote, saying 'here is my deal, take it or leave it'. If the deal is rejected then a motion to revoke A50 can be put. If carried, BREXIT is over; if lost we leave with no deal. MPs need to stop going round in circles, wittering about a people's vote and instead recognise that there are only three choices. Put in that way I would expect revocation to prevail.
That said, there's absolutely nothing in her behaviour to date which suggests that she would commit to such a course of action. If she survives tonight's motion of confidence then she might just spend the whole period between now and March 29th offering nothing but her deal or no deal, and playing a game of chicken with the House of Commons over the choice.0 -
Mr. kle4, very harsh to compare Philip May to Justinian's wife!0
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She's not an MP.Luckyguy1983 said:Is there anything to prevent Arlene Foster being made PM? *innocentface*
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Yes.Luckyguy1983 said:Is there anything to prevent Arlene Foster being made PM? *innocentface*
We voted to take back control, not to have an unelected Prime Minister.0 -
Cheers. I could see that record being smashed if May loses today.TheScreamingEagles said:
George Canning, 119 days.Richard_Tyndall said:Not sure if anyone has asked this yet but who holds the record for shortest term as PM? I am imagining a scenario where Boris wins the Tory leadership but then immediately loses a VONC in the House.
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Though to be fair, he died in office, rather than being deposed. Goderich who succeeded him had to resign after 144 days.TheScreamingEagles said:
George Canning, 119 days.Richard_Tyndall said:Not sure if anyone has asked this yet but who holds the record for shortest term as PM? I am imagining a scenario where Boris wins the Tory leadership but then immediately loses a VONC in the House.
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Boris would command the confidence of the house if he gets through to the final two I think. I simply don't think there are 7 MPs prepared to vote Corbyn in.0
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Nor was Earl Grey.williamglenn said:
She's not an MP.Luckyguy1983 said:Is there anything to prevent Arlene Foster being made PM? *innocentface*
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If anyone is backing the possibility or not of a by-election in Peterborough, here is the court report from The Peterborough Telegraph.
https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/crime/peterborough-mp-fiona-onasanya-lied-persistently-and-deliberately-court-told-1-87373320 -
May has just reached the 158 MPs she needs to stay Tory leader and win the VONC according to BBC news research of public declarations of support with 33 Tory MPs declaring they will vote against her.
Though of course in the privacy of the ballot booth nothing is guaranteed
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-465357390 -
Totally different. For reasons.Oort said:Sajid Javid says a leadership contest will be seen as "self-indulgent and wrong". Not like his own leadership bid published in the Spectator shortly before Graham Brady's announcement then?
Of course he might be be truthful - he would no doubt prefer he be made leader uncontested0 -
Ken Clarke.
Legend.0 -
Christ these remainers are absolute morons aren't they?Scott_P said:
Are they ever going to stop throwing a tantrum over losing a democratic vote? It seems doubtful.0 -
Er what? A pun on Gardiner's name? Dear me, who writes this garbage?Mortimer said:
Barry Gardiner...Anazina said:
Yes, I know that Corbyn is a gardener (so what?), and that there is a Le Carre book called the Constant Gardener but what is the link? – I don't get it.Carolus_Rex said:
Le Carre, allotments, etc. I guess.Anazina said:
I didn't understand the inconstant gardener gag – can someone explain it to me?oxfordsimon said:The 'inconstant Gardener' line is a good one - but one that won't reach beyond a very small bubble.
But she is being combative - which is what was needed today.
Shouty Corbyn doesn't have a plan - and being Shouty McShoutface won't hide that0
