politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Make of these Tweets what you will – but certainly lots of rum
Comments
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What you are suggesting should surely mean revoking Article 50 and then working out where we stand. Plunging into chaos and immediately needing a deal is seriously dangerous -on multiple levels - and I'm staggerer so many people are flippant about it. Truly saloon bar politics.Luckyguy1983 said:We're probably going to leave without a 'deal', which is by far the most sensible solution. If you think about it, a period of calm reflection is needed before any 'deals' are struck, be they with America, Australia, the EU or anywhere else.
No one is going to be making good decisions and negotiating with due rigour with the attitude of signing any old shite through, either because they're scared of life after Brexit, or trying to get 'quick wins' to vindicate their free trade Brexit visions.
As a country, we need to realise we're not made of glass and we are a viable unit in the world. That can't come until we have a period of just 'existing'.0 -
The ERG are mad but not mad enough to elect Corbyn PM.Benpointer said:
True, but they seem to be willing to trash their party for the sake of the 'greater goal'. They'll reason they can defeat Labour at a future election; they may never get another chance for total Brexit.Pulpstar said:
The ERG hate Corbyn just as much as the EU !Benpointer said:
For the ERG fruitcakes there is every incentive to stall things until the beginning of February then support Labour on a VoNC.
Am I missing something?0 -
BOHICACharles said:
FUBARTheWhiteRabbit said:
SNAFUAndyJS said:Good evening. Has anything happened today in the world of British politics?
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I am sure the EU will find a nice cushy job for him.Alanbrooke said:
il est foutuFrancisUrquhart said:Doesn't seem like he has any decent PR people around him...
Macron’s appeal to French from behind gold desk leaves gilets jaunes unimpressed
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/11/macron-president-of-the-rich-speech-elysee-palace-gilets-jaunes0 -
EICIPMCharles said:
FUBARTheWhiteRabbit said:
SNAFUAndyJS said:Good evening. Has anything happened today in the world of British politics?
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I quite like that. I think to be fair you should add 'Leave with No Deal' into the cycle, maybe as number 1. I am sure it would get rejected, which will help quieten the ERG No Deal advocates.NorthofStoke said:I've had an idea. At first I thought it was crazy ...
Government sponsors these resolutions in following order:
1. Revoke A50(permanently)
2. Second referendum (deal versus no deal)
3. Second referendum (2 part including rejoin)
4. Deal
They are put repeatedly until one gets a majority.0 -
something involving a yellow jacket I should hopeFrancisUrquhart said:
I am sure the EU will find a nice cushy job for him.Alanbrooke said:
il est foutuFrancisUrquhart said:Doesn't seem like he has any decent PR people around him...
Macron’s appeal to French from behind gold desk leaves gilets jaunes unimpressed
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/11/macron-president-of-the-rich-speech-elysee-palace-gilets-jaunes0 -
Jury sworn in. Opening statements. Not much to report if there are no new arguments.AndyJS said:
The re-trial did start today. Not much about it in the news though.Richard_Nabavi said:Talking of MPs, wasn't the Fiona Onasanya retrial supposed to start today? And what happened in the Craig Mackinlay case? I thought the jury were considering their verdict at least a week ago?
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One dead, three hurt in the shooting Christmas market in Strasbourg
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6484841/One-dead-three-hurt-shooting-Christmas-market-Strasbourg.html0 -
Really? What do we do for trade when we invalidate all our legal agreements and treaties? Do you seriously think there will be "Calm reflection" when things stop arriving or have tariffs applied?Luckyguy1983 said:We're probably going to leave without a 'deal', which is by far the most sensible solution. If you think about it, a period of calm reflection is needed before any 'deals' are struck, be they with America, Australia, the EU or anywhere else.
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https://twitter.com/bbcnewsnight/status/1072520557403537408?s=21
The UK is no longer the most powerful state in the British Isles,0 -
That's a full-on 'let them eat cake' cock-up.SeanT said:
LoL! That's the funniest thing I've seen all day (it's been quite a boring day of work). He literaly chose to speak to the French FROM A GOLDEN ROOM, to prove that he was in touch with the ordinary people. Why didn't he go the whole hog and wear an enormous crown, while holding the mace of Charlemagne?FrancisUrquhart said:Doesn't seem like he has any decent PR people around him...
Macron’s appeal to French from behind gold desk leaves gilets jaunes unimpressed
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/11/macron-president-of-the-rich-speech-elysee-palace-gilets-jaunes
He's a PR disaster. He must have advisors that hate him.0 -
The thing is they might believe that a GE with the UK in the process of Hard Brexiting would help the Tories to a landslide - 'backs to the wall' and all that.Pulpstar said:
The ERG are mad but not mad enough to elect Corbyn PM.Benpointer said:
True, but they seem to be willing to trash their party for the sake of the 'greater goal'. They'll reason they can defeat Labour at a future election; they may never get another chance for total Brexit.Pulpstar said:
The ERG hate Corbyn just as much as the EU !Benpointer said:
For the ERG fruitcakes there is every incentive to stall things until the beginning of February then support Labour on a VoNC.
Am I missing something?0 -
casualties in Strasboiurg at least one dead and 6 injured0
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If it wasn’t for the *Brussels* sprouts the Indian and Yorkshire pudding would be getting on fineFoxy said:In other news, the chef at Parliament is as mad as the inmates:
https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1072479807370420225?s=190 -
Less so I think - they will happily march down the division lobby with him. As indeed they should if they hate the deal so much.Pulpstar said:
The ERG hate Corbyn just as much as the EU !Benpointer said:
For the ERG fruitcakes there is every incentive to stall things until the beginning of February then support Labour on a VoNC.
Am I missing something?0 -
May is being humiliated by kindness a little, but all of the EU players realise that she's her last best hope for something sensible. The UK crashing out will be bad, but a UK remaining with a completely infuriated population might be worse. The DUP's stumbling block is obvious, and it is unjust to them. Fixing that might just be enough. Tricky, but doable. The Irish government can be strong armed into something or other. (They've played both sides, and everyone knows it)stodge said:Evening all
Another extraordinary political day.
Could Theresa May yet pull an ace from the deck and get enough of a concession from the EU to save her Deal or are the EU leaders simply patting her head and saying the right things while changing nothing and waiting for her to fall?
Listening to Rutte, Merkel and even Tusk, May is being humiliated by kindness. She is charging round trying to change a WA which we are told can't be renegotiated, seeking clarification of something clearly stated within the WA. The EU are indulging this final Act in the drama but the audience at home is restless bordering on mutinous.
The irony of course is the fall of the Deal saves her Government - the DUP will be happy and they don't want a change in Government. IF the Deal were to pass, the opposition parties (with the DUP) have enough votes to No Confidence the Government.
The other problem though is if May falls and the WA falls with her, there is nothing left but to either unilaterally revoke A50 which as others have stated would have calamitous political consequences for the Conservatives or proceed to as orderly a No Deal as can be achieved in the next three months and hope the damage and dislocation can and will be minimised come 29/3/19.
Yet as Cyclefree so adroitly opines, what would a change of Conservative leader achieve? The new leader would face the same dilemma as May so the leadership election becomes in effect the decision-making process, the unilateral revocation of A50 versus No Deal? Is there a Conservative who would be prepared to stand up and advocate revoking A50 at this stage?
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May is being humiliated by kindness a little, but all of the EU players realise that she's the last best hope for something sensible. The UK crashing out will be bad, but a UK remaining with a completely infuriated population might be worse. The DUP's stumbling block is obvious, and it is unjust to them. Fixing that might just be enough. Tricky, but doable. The Irish government can be strong armed into something or other. (They've played both sides, and everyone knows it)stodge said:Evening all
Another extraordinary political day.
Could Theresa May yet pull an ace from the deck and get enough of a concession from the EU to save her Deal or are the EU leaders simply patting her head and saying the right things while changing nothing and waiting for her to fall?
Listening to Rutte, Merkel and even Tusk, May is being humiliated by kindness. She is charging round trying to change a WA which we are told can't be renegotiated, seeking clarification of something clearly stated within the WA. The EU are indulging this final Act in the drama but the audience at home is restless bordering on mutinous.
The irony of course is the fall of the Deal saves her Government - the DUP will be happy and they don't want a change in Government. IF the Deal were to pass, the opposition parties (with the DUP) have enough votes to No Confidence the Government.
The other problem though is if May falls and the WA falls with her, there is nothing left but to either unilaterally revoke A50 which as others have stated would have calamitous political consequences for the Conservatives or proceed to as orderly a No Deal as can be achieved in the next three months and hope the damage and dislocation can and will be minimised come 29/3/19.
Yet as Cyclefree so adroitly opines, what would a change of Conservative leader achieve? The new leader would face the same dilemma as May so the leadership election becomes in effect the decision-making process, the unilateral revocation of A50 versus No Deal? Is there a Conservative who would be prepared to stand up and advocate revoking A50 at this stage?
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A period of calm reflection while we starve and bury the poor souls dying through lack of meds.Beverley_C said:
Really? What do we do for trade when we invalidate all our legal agreements and treaties? Do you seriously think there will be "Calm reflection" when things stop arriving or have tariffs applied?Luckyguy1983 said:We're probably going to leave without a 'deal', which is by far the most sensible solution. If you think about it, a period of calm reflection is needed before any 'deals' are struck, be they with America, Australia, the EU or anywhere else.
Sounds great!0 -
From the Scottish branch of the Kreigsmarine?Beverley_C said:
Was that the Graf Spey?MarqueeMark said:
I recall there was a fast ferry (couple of hours) between Montevideo and Buenos Aires, if you want a bit of a diversion.....SeanT said:ON topic, I have just been commissioned to visit Uruguay, by the Times. No idea what it's like. Hear vaguely nice things. Has anyone been?
Also, I have a commission to go to Nepal, but I can choose the time. Will it be too cold in February? Too rainy in April? Or what? I've not been there, either.
Many thanks to anyone who knows. Google is confused.
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And such is the tragedy before us. What can make one or both of these sides believe they might be taking a risk more than they can accept?Pulpstar said:0 -
I just can't imagine what he was thinking. Its Trumpian level of lack of self awareness. Even Hollande was better at PR than this.SeanT said:
LoL! That's the funniest thing I've seen all day (it's been quite a boring day of work). He literaly chose to speak to the French FROM A GOLDEN ROOM, to prove that he was in touch with the ordinary people. Why didn't he go the whole hog and wear an enormous crown, while holding the mace of Charlemagne?FrancisUrquhart said:Doesn't seem like he has any decent PR people around him...
Macron’s appeal to French from behind gold desk leaves gilets jaunes unimpressed
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/11/macron-president-of-the-rich-speech-elysee-palace-gilets-jaunes
He's a PR disaster. He must have advisors that hate him.0 -
The best thing about Uruguay ( apart from the football, the social cohesion, the president, the beaches, and the tolerance) is the wine. They keep it all to themselves.SeanT said:
Yes, Peru is relatively OK. I've been several times - and travelled alone to really wild parts. The burbs of Lima are dangerous, but that's true of big cities in most countries. Peru is OK.ralphmalph said:
In South America and I am a fan, as you say Chile, but Argentina and Peru are fine, The Inca Trail should be on every persons list.SeanT said:
Friends of mine were making a short movie about Brazilian street football, in the Rio slums, and they had to go everywhere with about 10 armed guards. Everywhere.ralphmalph said:
When I was there 10 years ago the advice was stay on the beach and the road that runs along the beach, but do not go down any of the side streets.SeanT said:
I have plenty of friends with horror stories from Sao Paolo and Rio. You go a 100 metres down the wrong street and you get a gun to your head.DavidL said:
Blimey. That’s one off the bucket list.SeanT said:
Interesting. Bit of a shame about the crime. I had the impression that Uruguay was one of the very few Latin American countries with European levels of crime (i.e. low). Like, say, Chile.viewcode said:
TheSeanT said:ON topic, I have just been commissioned to visit Uruguay, by the Times. No idea what it's like. Hear vaguely nice things. Has anyone been?
Also, I have a commission to go to Nepal, but I can choose the time. Will it be too cold in February? Too rainy in April? Or what? I've not been there, either.
Many thanks to anyone who knows. Google is confused.
The cars seem OK and up to European standards, though a couple of years behind-the-curve.
https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/country_result.jsp?country=Uruguay&displayCurrency=GBP
https://www.osac.gov/pages/ContentReportDetails.aspx?cid=21623
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montevideo
Crime is one of the most offputting aspects of South America (and it makes Chile even more desirable for being comparatively safe). Mexico is turning into a toilet. Ecuador, I hear, is even worse. Brazil is apparently a nightmare.
https://twitter.com/conradhackett/status/1071939229352161280
Even then, when they were on their own at night, they got into horrible trouble, just exiting the hotel to find a bar.
Never been to Argentina, would love to. Hear good things.
Hear terrible things about central America. And there are places I've been in Mexico to which I would not return, right now.0 -
Are non BREXITSHAMBLES posts allowedDavidL said:
Is Venezuela not supposed to be an inspiration for us, showing us the way in how an economy should share the wealth, or something?FrancisUrquhart said:
And then you think about Central America.....Which countries there are still ok, Costa Rica? Panama has gone downhill in terms of violent crime. You have 1000s fleeing to try and get to American from many other central American countries.SeanT said:
Interesting. Bit of a shame about the crime. I had the impression that Uruguay was one of the very few Latin American countries with European levels of crime (i.e. low). Like, say, Chile.viewcode said:
The capital of Uruguay is Montevideo. Montevideo has a mild humid subtropical climate. It has cool winters (June to September), hot summers (December to March) and volatile springs (October and November). Rainfall is regular and evenly spread throughout the year.SeanT said:ON topic, I have just been commissioned to visit Uruguay, by the Times. No idea what it's like. Hear vaguely nice things. Has anyone been?
Also, I have a commission to go to Nepal, but I can choose the time. Will it be too cold in February? Too rainy in April? Or what? I've not been there, either.
Many thanks to anyone who knows. Google is confused.
In terms of crime it isn't great, as pickpocketing and low-grade tourist harassment is a thing and things can get rather gun-ny. But stick to the posh tourist bits and you should be OK.
Randomly dragging-and-dropping on Google Maps makes me think Montevideo is a bit run-down: think of Spain before they tidied it up. The architecture looks pretty Spanish: I think it works quite well in the summer tho' the graffiti spoils things. It has that whole let's-suspend-every-wire-on-earth-from-poles thing going on, which always sets my teeth on edge ("You can bury them in pipes, y'know!")
The cars seem OK and up to European standards, though a couple of years behind-the-curve.
https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/country_result.jsp?country=Uruguay&displayCurrency=GBP
https://www.osac.gov/pages/ContentReportDetails.aspx?cid=21623
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montevideo
Crime is one of the most offputting aspects of South America (and it makes Chile even more desirable for being comparatively safe). Mexico is turning into a toilet. Ecuador, I hear, is even worse. Brazil is apparently a nightmare.
twitter.com/conradhackett/status/1071939229352161280
And most of the rest, Latin America, I mean a million people have fled Venezuela to Columbia...Columbia...to get away from the shit show there.
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Yes, that's not an unrealistic view to sell to people at all, the nasty men will all just go away and the fact millions voted for it and will be furious will not mean any problems whatsoever. Thank goodness only one side sells unrealistic dreams.OldKingCole said:
Good. Then perhaps we can get back into the EU properly and forget about this whole crazy idea, cooked up by a set of rather nasty people who saw a chance to make a LOT of money by a massive cheat on their countrymen.HYUFD said:
Indeed not one contender has any alternative plan that will get a Deal from the EU without the backstop.Omnium said:
I'm voting Theresa May.williamglenn said:
I think she's been poor, but way out ahead of everyone else in this. The DUP are the only other contenders in the sense stakes.
Indeed if May goes there is a strong possibility the ERG will back a No Deal contender like Raab, Davis or Boris or McVey who then wins the membership and then it is not impossible Soubry, Wollaston, Grieve, Clarke, Morgan arc would rather no confidence the Government than accept No Deal and we end up with a Corbyn minority government and permanent Customs Union and maybe permanent Single Market too0 -
I know a bunch of people in Nepal so let me know if you want any introsSeanT said:ON topic, I have just been commissioned to visit Uruguay, by the Times. No idea what it's like. Hear vaguely nice things. Has anyone been?
Also, I have a commission to go to Nepal, but I can choose the time. Will it be too cold in February? Too rainy in April? Or what? I've not been there, either.
Many thanks to anyone who knows. Google is confused.0 -
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No kidding.tottenhamWC said:
What you are suggesting should surely mean revoking Article 50 and then working out where we stand. Plunging into chaos and immediately needing a deal is seriously dangerous -on multiple levels - and I'm staggerer so many people are flippant about it. Truly saloon bar politics.Luckyguy1983 said:We're probably going to leave without a 'deal', which is by far the most sensible solution. If you think about it, a period of calm reflection is needed before any 'deals' are struck, be they with America, Australia, the EU or anywhere else.
No one is going to be making good decisions and negotiating with due rigour with the attitude of signing any old shite through, either because they're scared of life after Brexit, or trying to get 'quick wins' to vindicate their free trade Brexit visions.
As a country, we need to realise we're not made of glass and we are a viable unit in the world. That can't come until we have a period of just 'existing'.
And the Tories appear to think pausing to indulge in a leadership election a good idea...
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Are there enough anti-Corbyn Labour soft brexiteers who would abstain?Benpointer said:Just had a not particularly pleasant thought:
Say Parliament shambles on until early-February without resolving Brexit and then a VoNC held and is lost. Assuming no one else can win a VoC, a GE is called 14 days later - with a 7-week lead time under FTPA - for Thursday 4th April.
In such a situation, the HoC is not sitting, no one can agree a WA or revoke A50 and the clock will simply run out on Brexit during the GE campaign, pitching us into a No Deal catastophe.
For the ERG fruitcakes there is every incentive to stall things until the beginning of February then support Labour on a VoNC.
Am I missing something?0 -
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At least they struck out his line "Fuck it - let them eat cake...."SeanT said:
LoL! That's the funniest thing I've seen all day (it's been quite a boring day of work). He literaly chose to speak to the French FROM A GOLDEN ROOM, to prove that he was in touch with the ordinary people. Why didn't he go the whole hog and wear an enormous crown, while holding the mace of Charlemagne?FrancisUrquhart said:Doesn't seem like he has any decent PR people around him...
Macron’s appeal to French from behind gold desk leaves gilets jaunes unimpressed
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/11/macron-president-of-the-rich-speech-elysee-palace-gilets-jaunes
He's a PR disaster. He must have advisors that hate him.0 -
Given his Rogerdamus status, that means May is safe for the moment then..Black_Rook said:0 -
Subs deep-fried in batter apparently baffle sonar! They get soggy and sink too, but that's a wee matter in the plan.matt said:
From the Scottish branch of the Kreigsmarine?Beverley_C said:
Was that the Graf Spey?MarqueeMark said:
I recall there was a fast ferry (couple of hours) between Montevideo and Buenos Aires, if you want a bit of a diversion.....SeanT said:ON topic, I have just been commissioned to visit Uruguay, by the Times. No idea what it's like. Hear vaguely nice things. Has anyone been?
Also, I have a commission to go to Nepal, but I can choose the time. Will it be too cold in February? Too rainy in April? Or what? I've not been there, either.
Many thanks to anyone who knows. Google is confused.0 -
What is the process for the UK to agree the deal. Does the EU need a "UK Parliament Approved" stamp?
I mean, could May just agree it with them. How much more chaotic could it be? Bollocks to extending A50 unilaterally, go the whole hog and sign the deal herself.0 -
Both the UK and the EU have struggled with this for a year or more. The problem is May's determination to preserve "our precious Union" as she puts it which prevents her accepting any regulatory divergence between NI and the rest of the UK.Omnium said:
May is being humiliated by kindness a little, but all of the EU players realise that she's her last best hope for something sensible. The UK crashing out will be bad, but a UK remaining with a completely infuriated population might be worse. The DUP's stumbling block is obvious, and it is unjust to them. Fixing that might just be enough. Tricky, but doable. The Irish government can be strong armed into something or other. (They've played both sides, and everyone knows it)
The other aspect, which is a mess entirely of her own making, is or was the 2017 GE which left her Government dependent on the DUP for its survival. Yes, she can push that quite a way when the alternative is Corbyn but the notion of anything which put more than a cigarette paper between NI and the rest of the UK was anathema to Arlene and therefore to Theresa.
I suspect the majority in NI aren't bothered but the nature and political influence of Unionism (DUP version) precludes such good sense.
Thus, a Deal which includes the regulatory divergence to which the EU would happily accede is a concession May cannot make. Perhaps there is a form of words which might work but the other flaws in the WA would still exist and we are told there is no re-negotiation possible.0 -
E for Esther?bigjohnowls said:
EICIPMCharles said:
FUBARTheWhiteRabbit said:
SNAFUAndyJS said:Good evening. Has anything happened today in the world of British politics?
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I know it makes sense for heads of state to continue to use former palaces, but I've sometimes been surprised places that have overthrown monarchical regimes do not more deliberately have more modest offices and residences for their heads. That our head of government lives and works in a place that even has a street number just sounds more humble.SeanT said:
LoL! That's the funniest thing I've seen all day (it's been quite a boring day of work). He literaly chose to speak to the French FROM A GOLDEN ROOM, to prove that he was in touch with the ordinary people. Why didn't he go the whole hog and wear an enormous crown, while holding the mace of Charlemagne?FrancisUrquhart said:Doesn't seem like he has any decent PR people around him...
Macron’s appeal to French from behind gold desk leaves gilets jaunes unimpressed
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/11/macron-president-of-the-rich-speech-elysee-palace-gilets-jaunes
He's a PR disaster. He must have advisors that hate him.0 -
Labour MPs abstain on a VoNC? I can't see it tbh.Drutt said:
Are there enough anti-Corbyn Labour soft brexiteers who would abstain?Benpointer said:Just had a not particularly pleasant thought:
Say Parliament shambles on until early-February without resolving Brexit and then a VoNC held and is lost. Assuming no one else can win a VoC, a GE is called 14 days later - with a 7-week lead time under FTPA - for Thursday 4th April.
In such a situation, the HoC is not sitting, no one can agree a WA or revoke A50 and the clock will simply run out on Brexit during the GE campaign, pitching us into a No Deal catastophe.
For the ERG fruitcakes there is every incentive to stall things until the beginning of February then support Labour on a VoNC.
Am I missing something?0 -
https://twitter.com/jim_cornelius/status/1071974266038566918?s=21SandyRentool said:
E for Esther?bigjohnowls said:
EICIPMCharles said:
FUBARTheWhiteRabbit said:
SNAFUAndyJS said:Good evening. Has anything happened today in the world of British politics?
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Wouldn't that mean THEY get deselected?Benpointer said:
Labour MPs abstain on a VoNC? I can't see it tbh.Drutt said:
Are there enough anti-Corbyn Labour soft brexiteers who would abstain?Benpointer said:Just had a not particularly pleasant thought:
Say Parliament shambles on until early-February without resolving Brexit and then a VoNC held and is lost. Assuming no one else can win a VoC, a GE is called 14 days later - with a 7-week lead time under FTPA - for Thursday 4th April.
In such a situation, the HoC is not sitting, no one can agree a WA or revoke A50 and the clock will simply run out on Brexit during the GE campaign, pitching us into a No Deal catastophe.
For the ERG fruitcakes there is every incentive to stall things until the beginning of February then support Labour on a VoNC.
Am I missing something?0 -
What is it with every f##ker on twitter having some stupid #hashtag in their name.0
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On topic, this can only end with No Deal.
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.0 -
Frankly, if I were the EU I would be tempted now to say in words loud and clear that:-Beverley_C said:
The point is simple. To be in charge. To dole out favours and patronage to idolising sycophants and to salve the inadequacy of the candidate in charge.Cyclefree said:What is the point of a Tory leadership election?
Oh! I am sorry - you thought that the purpose of being the next Leader was to do the best for the country? The reality appears to be that they do not give a flying f*** about the country, only about themselves and their obsessions.Cyclefree said:What is the new leader going to do? Renegotiate? Really?? The EU will likely tell them to take a running jump. The current WA and political declaration has taken 18 months. Why would a new one be negotiated, agreed and voted on in, what, 2-3 weeks?
Ask for an extension? To do what? A referendum?
Revoke Article 50? Possibly but not if some mad Leaver wins, which seems all too likely.
So what is the point? Or is this just self-indulgent wankery by the Tories to prove - beyond all reasonable doubt to even the dimmest of us - that they are currently unfit for office?
I think my cynicism glands are inflamed
1. No matter who the PM is there is only one WA deal and political withdrawal on the table;
2. The EU is not going to waste any more time entering into negotiations when it is clear that the British Parliament is unwilling/unable to ratify any agreement reached;
2. The UK will leave at 11 pm on March 29th 2019;
3. Britain can revoke Article 50 right up to that moment unilaterally and, if it did so, would be welcomed back with open arms;
4. The EU will only agree an extension to Article 50 if this is to ensure ratification of the deal or a referendum on whether it wishes to Remain or accept the deal, in short, only if there is a referendum which changes the current trajectory i.e. Britain's departure without a deal on 29th March.
Over to you Britain.
There is no earthly reason why the rest of the EU should facilitate the self-indulgence of Britain's current political class, whatever party they come from.0 -
Evening folks.
A question for the Parliamentary experts.
Am I right in assuming that a Parliamentary VONC can still be called even if May has lost a party VONC and is no longer leader of the party.
I assume she remains PM until a new leader has been chosen by the party.0 -
)The withdrawal agreement may be ratified only if—TOPPING said:What is the process for the UK to agree the deal. Does the EU need a "UK Parliament Approved" stamp?
I mean, could May just agree it with them. How much more chaotic could it be? Bollocks to extending A50 unilaterally, go the whole hog and sign the deal herself.
(a)a Minister of the Crown has laid before each House of Parliament—
(i)a statement that political agreement has been reached,
(ii)a copy of the negotiated withdrawal agreement, and
(iii)a copy of the framework for the future relationship,
(b)the negotiated withdrawal agreement and the framework for the future relationship have been approved by a resolution of the House of Commons on a motion moved by a Minister of the Crown,
(c)a motion for the House of Lords to take note of the negotiated withdrawal agreement and the framework for the future relationship has been tabled in the House of Lords by a Minister of the Crown and—
(i)the House of Lords has debated the motion, or
(ii)the House of Lords has not concluded a debate on the motion before the end of the period of five Lords sitting days beginning with the first Lords sitting day after the day on which the House of Commons passes the resolution mentioned in paragraph (b), and
(d)an Act of Parliament has been passed which contains provision for the implementation of the withdrawal agreement.
0 -
Uruguay has a delightfully excentric ex president, quite a successful one foe an ex marxist guerilla and political prisoner too. The polar opposite of Macron in lifestyle:SeanT said:
Yes, Peru is relatively OK. I've been several times - and travelled alone to really wild parts. The burbs of Lima are dangerous, but that's true of big cities in most countries. Peru is OK.ralphmalph said:
In South America and I am a fan, as you say Chile, but Argentina and Peru are fine, The Inca Trail should be on every persons list.SeanT said:
Friends of mine were making a short movie about Brazilian street football, in the Rio slums, and they had to go everywhere with about 10 armed guards. Everywhere.ralphmalph said:
When I was there 10 years ago the advice was stay on the beach and the road that runs along the beach, but do not go down any of the side streets.SeanT said:
I have plenty of friends with horror stories from Sao Paolo and Rio. You go a 100 metres down the wrong street and you get a gun to your head.DavidL said:
Blimey. That’s one off the bucket list.SeanT said:
Interesting. Bit of a shame about the crime. Iviewcode said:
TheSeanT said:ON topic, I have just been commissioned to visit Uruguay, by the Times. No idea what it's like. Hear vaguely nice things. Has anyone been?
Also, I have a commission to go to Nepal, but I can choose the time. Will it be too cold in February? Too rainy in April? Or what? I've not been there, either.
Many thanks to anyone who knows. Google is confused.
The cars seem OK and up to European standards, though a couple of years behind-the-curve.
https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/country_result.jsp?country=Uruguay&displayCurrency=GBP
https://www.osac.gov/pages/ContentReportDetails.aspx?cid=21623
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montevideo
https://twitter.com/conradhackett/status/1071939229352161280
Even then, when they were on their own at night, they got into horrible trouble, just exiting the hotel to find a bar.
Never been to Argentina, would love to. Hear good things.
Hear terrible things about central America. And there are places I've been in Mexico to which I would not return, right now.
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjByveqzJjfAhVKyYUKHXSWD-YQzPwBegQIARAC&url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-45195188&psig=AOvVaw3yxen1Qpo_bjOQe7hTW5eN&ust=15446458502626010 -
You must be really lucky in some other area of your life to balance off hitting on such idiotic opinions?Luckyguy1983 said:We're probably going to leave without a 'deal', which is by far the most sensible solution. If you think about it, a period of calm reflection is needed before any 'deals' are struck, be they with America, Australia, the EU or anywhere else.
No one is going to be making good decisions and negotiating with due rigour with the attitude of signing any old shite through, either because they're scared of life after Brexit, or trying to get 'quick wins' to vindicate their free trade Brexit visions.
As a country, we need to realise we're not made of glass and we are a viable unit in the world. That can't come until we have a period of just 'existing'.0 -
Okey dokeykle4 said:
)The withdrawal agreement may be ratified only if—TOPPING said:What is the process for the UK to agree the deal. Does the EU need a "UK Parliament Approved" stamp?
I mean, could May just agree it with them. How much more chaotic could it be? Bollocks to extending A50 unilaterally, go the whole hog and sign the deal herself.
(a)a Minister of the Crown has laid before each House of Parliament—
(i)a statement that political agreement has been reached,
(ii)a copy of the negotiated withdrawal agreement, and
(iii)a copy of the framework for the future relationship,
(b)the negotiated withdrawal agreement and the framework for the future relationship have been approved by a resolution of the House of Commons on a motion moved by a Minister of the Crown,
(c)a motion for the House of Lords to take note of the negotiated withdrawal agreement and the framework for the future relationship has been tabled in the House of Lords by a Minister of the Crown and—
(i)the House of Lords has debated the motion, or
(ii)the House of Lords has not concluded a debate on the motion before the end of the period of five Lords sitting days beginning with the first Lords sitting day after the day on which the House of Commons passes the resolution mentioned in paragraph (b), and
(d)an Act of Parliament has been passed which contains provision for the implementation of the withdrawal agreement.0 -
Maybe Her Maj could do the decent thing and step in and sign it?TOPPING said:What is the process for the UK to agree the deal. Does the EU need a "UK Parliament Approved" stamp?
I mean, could May just agree it with them. How much more chaotic could it be? Bollocks to extending A50 unilaterally, go the whole hog and sign the deal herself.0 -
secondedCyclefree said:
Frankly, if I were the EU I would be tempted now to say in words loud and clear that:-Beverley_C said:
The point is simple. To be in charge. To dole out favours and patronage to idolising sycophants and to salve the inadequacy of the candidate in charge.Cyclefree said:What is the point of a Tory leadership election?
Oh! I am sorry - you thought that the purpose of being the next Leader was to do the best for the country? The reality appears to be that they do not give a flying f*** about the country, only about themselves and their obsessions.Cyclefree said:What is the new leader going to do? Renegotiate? Really?? The EU will likely tell them to take a running jump. The current WA and political declaration has taken 18 months. Why would a new one be negotiated, agreed and voted on in, what, 2-3 weeks?
Ask for an extension? To do what? A referendum?
Revoke Article 50? Possibly but not if some mad Leaver wins, which seems all too likely.
So what is the point? Or is this just self-indulgent wankery by the Tories to prove - beyond all reasonable doubt to even the dimmest of us - that they are currently unfit for office?
I think my cynicism glands are inflamed
1. No matter who the PM is there is only one WA deal and political withdrawal on the table;
2. The EU is not going to waste any more time entering into negotiations when it is clear that the British Parliament is unwilling/unable to ratify any agreement reached;
2. The UK will leave at 11 pm on March 29th 2019;
3. Britain can revoke Article 50 right up to that moment unilaterally and, if it did so, would be welcomed back with open arms;
4. The EU will only agree an extension to Article 50 if this is to ensure ratification of the deal or a referendum on whether it wishes to Remain or accept the deal, in short, only if there is a referendum which changes the current trajectory i.e. Britain's departure without a deal on 29th March.
Over to you Britain.
There is no earthly reason why the rest of the EU should facilitate the self-indulgence of Britain's current political class, whatever party they come from.0 -
An excellent notion.Cyclefree said:
Frankly, if I were the EU I would be tempted now to say in words loud and clear that:-Beverley_C said:
The point is simple. To be in charge. To dole out favours and patronage to idolising sycophants and to salve the inadequacy of the candidate in charge.Cyclefree said:What is the point of a Tory leadership election?
Oh! I am sorry - you thought that the purpose of being the next Leader was to do the best for the country? The reality appears to be that they do not give a flying f*** about the country, only about themselves and their obsessions.Cyclefree said:What is the new leader going to do? Renegotiate? Really?? The EU will likely tell them to take a running jump. The current WA and political declaration has taken 18 months. Why would a new one be negotiated, agreed and voted on in, what, 2-3 weeks?
Ask for an extension? To do what? A referendum?
Revoke Article 50? Possibly but not if some mad Leaver wins, which seems all too likely.
So what is the point? Or is this just self-indulgent wankery by the Tories to prove - beyond all reasonable doubt to even the dimmest of us - that they are currently unfit for office?
I think my cynicism glands are inflamed
1. No matter who the PM is there is only one WA deal and political withdrawal on the table;
2. The EU is not going to waste any more time entering into negotiations when it is clear that the British Parliament is unwilling/unable to ratify any agreement reached;
2. The UK will leave at 11 pm on March 29th 2019;
3. Britain can revoke Article 50 right up to that moment unilaterally and, if it did so, would be welcomed back with open arms;
4. The EU will only agree an extension to Article 50 if this is to ensure ratification of the deal or a referendum on whether it wishes to Remain or accept the deal, in short, only if there is a referendum which changes the current trajectory i.e. Britain's departure without a deal on 29th March.
Over to you Britain.
There is no earthly reason why the rest of the EU should facilitate the self-indulgence of Britain's current political class, whatever party they come from.
0 -
I think the 48 letters have probably been received. Just a hunch.0
-
It's up to her. A caretaker PM could be necessary if she resigns as PM before a new leader is appointed.Richard_Tyndall said:Evening folks.
A question for the Parliamentary experts.
Am I right in assuming that a Parliamentary VONC can still be called even if May has lost a party VONC and is no longer leader of the party.
I assume she remains PM until a new leader has been chosen by the party.0 -
I do wonder if those who think that tearing up all agreements is a "Good Thing"™ should be let out without a minder in case they hurt themselves opening their front door or crossing the road.Benpointer said:
A period of calm reflection while we starve and bury the poor souls dying through lack of meds.Beverley_C said:
Really? What do we do for trade when we invalidate all our legal agreements and treaties? Do you seriously think there will be "Calm reflection" when things stop arriving or have tariffs applied?Luckyguy1983 said:We're probably going to leave without a 'deal', which is by far the most sensible solution. If you think about it, a period of calm reflection is needed before any 'deals' are struck, be they with America, Australia, the EU or anywhere else.
Sounds great!0 -
And yet the plans of both sides opposed to the deal are insistent the EU will do just that, it is quite remarkable.Cyclefree said:
Frankly, if I were the EU I would be tempted now to say in words loud and clear that:-Beverley_C said:
The point is simple. To be in charge. To dole out favours and patronage to idolising sycophants and to salve the inadequacy of the candidate in charge.Cyclefree said:What is the point of a Tory leadership election?
Oh! I am sorry - you thought that the purpose of being the next Leader was to do the best for the country? The reality appears to be that they do not give a flying f*** about the country, only about themselves and their obsessions.Cyclefree said:What is the new leader going to do? Renegotiate? Really?? The EU will likely tell them to take a running jump. The current WA and political declaration has taken 18 months. Why would a new one be negotiated, agreed and voted on in, what, 2-3 weeks?
Ask for an extension? To do what? A referendum?
Revoke Article 50? Possibly but not if some mad Leaver wins, which seems all too likely.
So what is the point? Or is this just self-indulgent wankery by the Tories to prove - beyond all reasonable doubt to even the dimmest of us - that they are currently unfit for office?
I think my cynicism glands are inflamed
1. No matter who the PM is there is only one WA deal and political withdrawal on the table;
2. The EU is not going to waste any more time entering into negotiations when it is clear that the British Parliament is unwilling/unable to ratify any agreement reached;
2. The UK will leave at 11 pm on March 29th 2019;
3. Britain can revoke Article 50 right up to that moment unilaterally and, if it did so, would be welcomed back with open arms;
4. The EU will only agree an extension to Article 50 if this is to ensure ratification of the deal or a referendum on whether it wishes to Remain or accept the deal, in short, only if there is a referendum which changes the current trajectory i.e. Britain's departure without a deal on 29th March.
Over to you Britain.
There is no earthly reason why the rest of the EU should facilitate the self-indulgence of Britain's current political class, whatever party they come from.
The EU probably should do as you suggest. It would be the end of May, but she should have gone already given her whole ploy was about this being it.0 -
No. The government's incompetence is manifest, no Labour MP would keep it in power. Even the most anti-Corbyn people would find it hard to argue he would be worse than the current shambles.Benpointer said:
Labour MPs abstain on a VoNC? I can't see it tbh.Drutt said:
Are there enough anti-Corbyn Labour soft brexiteers who would abstain?Benpointer said:Just had a not particularly pleasant thought:
Say Parliament shambles on until early-February without resolving Brexit and then a VoNC held and is lost. Assuming no one else can win a VoC, a GE is called 14 days later - with a 7-week lead time under FTPA - for Thursday 4th April.
In such a situation, the HoC is not sitting, no one can agree a WA or revoke A50 and the clock will simply run out on Brexit during the GE campaign, pitching us into a No Deal catastophe.
For the ERG fruitcakes there is every incentive to stall things until the beginning of February then support Labour on a VoNC.
Am I missing something?0 -
There is always a government (except for the hour or so driving to and from the palace) and declaring no confidence in it cannot be conditional upon anything happening within a particular political party. That said, I am sure that if such a motion were tabled at a time of fast-moving change, the Speaker might have a word with the movers and/or be a little slower than usual in putting it before the house.Richard_Tyndall said:Evening folks.
A question for the Parliamentary experts.
Am I right in assuming that a Parliamentary VONC can still be called even if May has lost a party VONC and is no longer leader of the party.
I assume she remains PM until a new leader has been chosen by the party.0 -
No, it depends on the bravery (or otherwise) of the Tory remainers. If they are prepared to jump ship from a government heading for your destination, it can quickly be stopped.david_herdson said:On topic, this can only end with No Deal.
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.0 -
Parliament has a veto under the terms of the Withdrawal Act. That's what the meaningful vote is. No MV, no withdrawal agreement. At least until 21st Jan in which case the act's emergency fallback provisions kick in.TOPPING said:What is the process for the UK to agree the deal. Does the EU need a "UK Parliament Approved" stamp?
I mean, could May just agree it with them. How much more chaotic could it be? Bollocks to extending A50 unilaterally, go the whole hog and sign the deal herself.0 -
Cheers. That is as I suspected.IanB2 said:
There is always a government (except for the hour or so driving to and from the palace) and declaring no confidence in it cannot be conditional upon anything happening within a particular political party. That said, I am sure that if such a motion were tabled at a time of fast-moving change, the Speaker might have a word with the movers and/or be a little slower than usual in putting it before the house.Richard_Tyndall said:Evening folks.
A question for the Parliamentary experts.
Am I right in assuming that a Parliamentary VONC can still be called even if May has lost a party VONC and is no longer leader of the party.
I assume she remains PM until a new leader has been chosen by the party.0 -
Must be right surely - otherwise the Tories could fend off a VoNC by taking a long time selecting a new leader.Richard_Tyndall said:Evening folks.
A question for the Parliamentary experts.
Am I right in assuming that a Parliamentary VONC can still be called even if May has lost a party VONC and is no longer leader of the party.
I assume she remains PM until a new leader has been chosen by the party.
More interesting is the scenario where a VoNC leads to a GE just as the Tories embark on a six week leadership campaign.
It really, really, really could happen... Yes, it really, really, really could happen...0 -
The karma of seeing Varadkar explain why he now has a hard border because he refused to compromise on the backstop would be delicious. That would be hubris leading to nemesis redux.SeanT said:
I'm increasingly reaching the same conclusion. It might also be, sadly, the best. Brutal, hard, damaging, but then we rebuild. With no ECJ, no debts to the EU, completely sovereign.david_herdson said:On topic, this can only end with No Deal.
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
It will be tough on Ireland, but then they've kinda brought it on themselves. I do not believe the UK will put a hard border across Ireland, there will be no British infrastructure.
What will the EU do then?0 -
They’ll send us food parcels.SeanT said:
I'm increasingly reaching the same conclusion. It might also be, sadly, the best. Brutal, hard, damaging, but then we rebuild. With no ECJ, no debts to the EU, completely sovereign.david_herdson said:On topic, this can only end with No Deal.
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
It will be tough on Ireland, but then they've kinda brought it on themselves. I do not believe the UK will put a hard border across Ireland, there will be no British infrastructure.
What will the EU do then?0 -
Macron upgrading the yellow gillet to the gold gillet. Gillet Jaune to Gillet d'Or.SeanT said:
LoL! That's the funniest thing I've seen all day (it's been quite a boring day of work). He literaly chose to speak to the French FROM A GOLDEN ROOM, to prove that he was in touch with the ordinary people. Why didn't he go the whole hog and wear an enormous crown, while holding the mace of Charlemagne?FrancisUrquhart said:Doesn't seem like he has any decent PR people around him...
Macron’s appeal to French from behind gold desk leaves gilets jaunes unimpressed
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/11/macron-president-of-the-rich-speech-elysee-palace-gilets-jaunes
He's a PR disaster. He must have advisors that hate him.0 -
Which are... can you remind me?grabcocque said:
Parliament has a veto under the terms of the Withdrawal Act. That's what the meaningful vote is. No MV, no withdrawal agreement. At least until 21st Jan in which case the act's emergency fallback provisions kick in.TOPPING said:What is the process for the UK to agree the deal. Does the EU need a "UK Parliament Approved" stamp?
I mean, could May just agree it with them. How much more chaotic could it be? Bollocks to extending A50 unilaterally, go the whole hog and sign the deal herself.0 -
Blink.SeanT said:
I'm increasingly reaching the same conclusion. It might also be, sadly, the best. Brutal, hard, damaging, but then we rebuild. With no ECJ, no debts to the EU, completely sovereign.david_herdson said:On topic, this can only end with No Deal.
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
It will be tough on Ireland, but then they've kinda brought it on themselves. I do not believe the UK will put a hard border across Ireland, there will be no British infrastructure.
What will the EU do then?
The alternative is to lose one eighth of their market. At a time their economies are on a knife-edge. For what? An insurance policy they say we won't need?
Time for some rethinking in Brussels.0 -
Laura K seems pretty convinced this time the rumours are true and the jig is up.
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1072586251147059200
0 -
Give it a couple of weeks, I'd imagine.SeanT said:
I'm increasingly reaching the same conclusion. It might also be, sadly, the best. Brutal, hard, damaging, but then we rebuild. With no ECJ, no debts to the EU, completely sovereign.
It will be tough on Ireland, but then they've kinda brought it on themselves. I do not believe the UK will put a hard border across Ireland, there will be no British infrastructure.
What will the EU do then?0 -
I like the idea. Next Tory conference sees BoJo addressing what remains of the faithful. Meanwhile the previous week PM Corbyn has been welcoming the President of the EU as a fraternal delegate, and delighting in the fact that as a result of GB Staying a large number of Lab MEP’s have joined the Socialist Group in the Parliament.HYUFD said:
The ERG are certainly playing with fire now, risking both BINO or EUref2 and Remain as well as a Corbyn premiershipOldKingCole said:
Good. Then perhaps we can get back into the EU properly and forget about this whole crazy idea, cooked up by a set of rather nasty people who saw a chance to make a LOT of money by a massive cheat on their countrymen.HYUFD said:
Indeed not one contender has any alternative plan that will get a Deal from the EU without the backstop.Omnium said:
I'm voting Theresa May.williamglenn said:
I think she's been poor, but way out ahead of everyone else in this. The DUP are the only other contenders in the sense stakes.
Indeed if May goes there is a strong possibility the ERG will back a No Deal contender like Raab, Davis or Boris or McVey who then wins the membership and then it is not impossible Soubry, Wollaston, Grieve, Clarke, Morgan arc would rather no confidence the Government than accept No Deal and we end up with a Corbyn minority government and permanent Customs Union and maybe permanent Single Market too
As part of the new arrangements Monaco has been told it must ensure that citizens of EU countries resident there are taxed at the rates they would be at home.0 -
Not convinced jumping ship even helps. They have to wait until May's deal fails assuming she lasts that long. That's late January. If they jump ship without Corbyn being supplanted all they would achieve is a general election - taking government formation right up to the exit date deadline.IanB2 said:
No, it depends on the bravery (or otherwise) of the Tory remainers. If they are prepared to jump ship for a government heading for your destination, it can quickly be stopped.david_herdson said:On topic, this can only end with No Deal.
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.0 -
Macron is probably around 10 years younger than the average voter in France. That might be one of his problems.0
-
Oooh saucy 😯Beverley_C said:
BOHICACharles said:
FUBARTheWhiteRabbit said:
SNAFUAndyJS said:Good evening. Has anything happened today in the world of British politics?
0 -
Knowing Brady he'll probably try and delay the vote until after Christmas and the New Year.grabcocque said:Laura K seems pretty convinced this time the rumours are true and the jig is up.
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/10725862511470592000 -
I really want May’s deal or something like it but if we don’t get it I will vote for no deal as many times as I can.SeanT said:
I'm increasingly reaching the same conclusion. It might also be, sadly, the best. Brutal, hard, damaging, but then we rebuild. With no ECJ, no debts to the EU, completely sovereign.david_herdson said:On topic, this can only end with No Deal.
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
It will be tough on Ireland, but then they've kinda brought it on themselves. I do not believe the UK will put a hard border across Ireland, there will be no British infrastructure.
What will the EU do then?0 -
Good thing people and nations always make rational decisions then, right?MarqueeMark said:
Blink.SeanT said:
I'm increasingly reaching the same conclusion. It might also be, sadly, the best. Brutal, hard, damaging, but then we rebuild. With no ECJ, no debts to the EU, completely sovereign.david_herdson said:On topic, this can only end with No Deal.
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
It will be tough on Ireland, but then they've kinda brought it on themselves. I do not believe the UK will put a hard border across Ireland, there will be no British infrastructure.
What will the EU do then?
The alternative is to lose one eighth of their market. At a time their economies are on a knife-edge. For what? An insurance policy they say we won't need?
Time for some rethinking in Brussels.0 -
No times then.DavidL said:
I really want May’s deal or something like it but if we don’t get it I will vote for no deal as many times as I can.0 -
You are probably right. Which could be the best thing that happens for our Theresa, since the average person in the street isn't going to be impressed by Tory MPs' introspection. Indeed trying to take down the PM at such a critical moment could provoke quite a backlash.AndyJS said:I think the 48 letters have probably been received. Just a hunch.
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https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1072589500990279682
Here we go... a senior government source says they expect a confidence vote imminently
GAME ON MOTHERFORKERS0 -
The Tory Remainers can only jump if the Labour Remainers also jump.IanB2 said:
No, it depends on the bravery (or otherwise) of the Tory remainers. If they are prepared to jump ship for a government heading for your destination, it can quickly be stopped.david_herdson said:On topic, this can only end with No Deal.
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
They won't split their own party whilst leaving Labour intact, and then vote to put Corbyn into power in exchange for what they want on Europe. A General Election would soon follow, in which they would be totally wiped out.
That's the barrier to Parliament rescuing the situation in favour of the pro-EU side. Both major parties need to blow themselves up, clearing the way for the Europhiles and pragmatists on both sides to install an emergency Government and shove revocation and the repeal of the Withdrawal Act through.
Otherwise there'll continue to be no majority for any course of action, and No Deal will happen by default as @david_herdson describes.0 -
#fuckknowsFrancisUrquhart said:What is it with every f##ker on twitter having some stupid #hashtag in their name.
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Confidence vote would be held within a day or two of Brady confirming 48 letters I assume? This week?grabcocque said:Laura K seems pretty convinced this time the rumours are true and the jig is up.
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/10725862511470592000 -
I think she canTOPPING said:What is the process for the UK to agree the deal. Does the EU need a "UK Parliament Approved" stamp?
I mean, could May just agree it with them. How much more chaotic could it be? Bollocks to extending A50 unilaterally, go the whole hog and sign the deal herself.0 -
What'd be nice is if we could have separate acronyms for votes of no confidence in party leaders and votes of no confidence in governments. To make reading some tweets less confusing...0
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This VONC is something she can't run away from which will be a nice surprise for her party.0
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I've been convinced May would lose any confidence vote, but it would be kind of hilarious if she did win it. I don't see how given the Brexiteer squadrons, the remainiac brigade, and practically begging to be removed by loyalists by withdrawing the MV, but the letters crowd are so vociferous about how near traitorous she is it would be interesting to see what they do if she wins.0
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Finally something clarifying is happening.0
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+1solarflare said:What'd be nice is if we could have separate acronyms for votes of no confidence in party leaders and votes of no confidence in governments. To make reading some tweets less confusing...
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Barring a sizeable Tory rebellion, it sounds fairly likely.david_herdson said:On topic, this can only end with No Deal.
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
The ERGonauts are quite happy to force a leadership election, as the time wasted takes us closer to the end of March even if they don’t win. And it’s prett well impossible to see an alternate leader making any advance on May’s deal.
Is an alternate government supported by a couple of dozen Tories, purely to allow revocation of Article 50 a possibility, though ?
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Do you think if the EU dropped the back-stop it would be enough to get May's Deal through? I am not so sure - some ERG extremists would still rebel as would some Tory hardline Remainers imo.MarqueeMark said:
Blink.SeanT said:
I'm increasingly reaching the same conclusion. It might also be, sadly, the best. Brutal, hard, damaging, but then we rebuild. With no ECJ, no debts to the EU, completely sovereign.david_herdson said:On topic, this can only end with No Deal.
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
It will be tough on Ireland, but then they've kinda brought it on themselves. I do not believe the UK will put a hard border across Ireland, there will be no British infrastructure.
What will the EU do then?
The alternative is to lose one eighth of their market. At a time their economies are on a knife-edge. For what? An insurance policy they say we won't need?
Time for some rethinking in Brussels.0 -
PVONC (Party VONC) vs PVONC (Parliament VONC)kle4 said:
+1solarflare said:What'd be nice is if we could have separate acronyms for votes of no confidence in party leaders and votes of no confidence in governments. To make reading some tweets less confusing...
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A second referendum looks nailed on to me now.grabcocque said:
No times then.DavidL said:
I really want May’s deal or something like it but if we don’t get it I will vote for no deal as many times as I can.0 -
Ah, excellently done.grabcocque said:
PVONC (Party VONC) vs PVONC (Parliament VONC)kle4 said:
+1solarflare said:What'd be nice is if we could have separate acronyms for votes of no confidence in party leaders and votes of no confidence in governments. To make reading some tweets less confusing...
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Same one who said the meaningful vote was definitely still on?grabcocque said:https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1072589500990279682
Here we go... a senior government source says they expect a confidence vote imminently
GAME ON MOTHERFORKERS0 -
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak
Hearing that SirGraham Brady has asked to see the PM after #pmqs tmrw, and multiple sources, including senior tories and a cabinet minister, telling us tonight they believe the threshold of 48 letters has been reached - v unlikely to be any confirmation until tomorrow
ON LIKE DONKEY KONG0
