What'd be nice is if we could have separate acronyms for votes of no confidence in party leaders and votes of no confidence in governments. To make reading some tweets less confusing...
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
No, it depends on the bravery (or otherwise) of the Tory remainers. If they are prepared to jump ship from a government heading for your destination, it can quickly be stopped.
No Tory MP, not even Clarke, Soubry or Grieve, would ever join or support a Corbyn led government. The rest of their social lives would be spent in a sad, solitary Purgatory.
I think the key there is 'Tory MP'. Some are flirting on the edge of the party just as some Labour MPs were before they left. Heck, some are leaking that many would leave the party if the wrong person became leader. Clarke I am sure would not - he's been a Tory MP for 48 years, longer than many of his colleagues have been alive, and despite being an ardent EU fan backs this deal to leave, but some of the others? Perhaps they would, in the end, make it their last act as a Tory MP.
If they care that much about remaining it should come above the party.
Hearing that SirGraham Brady has asked to see the PM after #pmqs tmrw, and multiple sources, including senior tories and a cabinet minister, telling us tonight they believe the threshold of 48 letters has been reached - v unlikely to be any confirmation until tomorrow
ON LIKE DONKEY KONG
Tezza I think we need to have a word when you get back from Europe, the shredder has finally given up the ghost.
ON topic, I have just been commissioned to visit Uruguay, by the Times. No idea what it's like. Hear vaguely nice things. Has anyone been?
Also, I have a commission to go to Nepal, but I can choose the time. Will it be too cold in February? Too rainy in April? Or what? I've not been there, either.
Many thanks to anyone who knows. Google is confused.
So say we get the announcement tomorrow, vote scheduled on Monday, she comes back with her negotiation triumph this week and announces the vote scheduled for next Friday. Also suppose she wins the no confidence vote by a reasonable margin.
What do we think happens to the rebellion on the Meaningful Vote? Do some of the rebels say "ok, the party has decided to follow her lead" or does she go directly from a confidence vote win to a monster defeat?
ON topic, I have just been commissioned to visit Uruguay, by the Times. No idea what it's like. Hear vaguely nice things. Has anyone been?
Also, I have a commission to go to Nepal, but I can choose the time. Will it be too cold in February? Too rainy in April? Or what? I've not been there, either.
Many thanks to anyone who knows. Google is confused.
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
I'm increasingly reaching the same conclusion. It might also be, sadly, the best. Brutal, hard, damaging, but then we rebuild. With no ECJ, no debts to the EU, completely sovereign.
It will be tough on Ireland, but then they've kinda brought it on themselves. I do not believe the UK will put a hard border across Ireland, there will be no British infrastructure.
What will the EU do then?
Blink.
The alternative is to lose one eighth of their market. At a time their economies are on a knife-edge. For what? An insurance policy they say we won't need?
Time for some rethinking in Brussels.
Do you think if the EU dropped the back-stop it would be enough to get May's Deal through? I am not so sure - some ERG extremists would still rebel as would some Tory hardline Remainers imo.
A decent chance. (edit:BP wasn't asking me, please see thread context)
Whatever this deal is it won't be the final deal. We get to work that our over time, as do the EU.
The UK people can instruct their parliament to do whatever they like. There simply is no binding deal.
It is a bit depressing that people immediately spill the beans to journalists about these things. Where's the mystery? Do these people leave Brady's presence and immediately text Laura K?
Say Parliament shambles on until early-February without resolving Brexit and then a VoNC held and is lost. Assuming no one else can win a VoC, a GE is called 14 days later - with a 7-week lead time under FTPA - for Thursday 4th April.
In such a situation, the HoC is not sitting, no one can agree a WA or revoke A50 and the clock will simply run out on Brexit during the GE campaign, pitching us into a No Deal catastophe.
For the ERG fruitcakes there is every incentive to stall things until the beginning of February then support Labour on a VoNC.
Am I missing something?
Are there enough anti-Corbyn Labour soft brexiteers who would abstain?
Labour MPs abstain on a VoNC? I can't see it tbh.
No. The government's incompetence is manifest, no Labour MP would keep it in power. Even the most anti-Corbyn people would find it hard to argue he would be worse than the current shambles.
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
I'm increasingly reaching the same conclusion. It might also be, sadly, the best. Brutal, hard, damaging, but then we rebuild. With no ECJ, no debts to the EU, completely sovereign.
It will be tough on Ireland, but then they've kinda brought it on themselves. I do not believe the UK will put a hard border across Ireland, there will be no British infrastructure.
What will the EU do then?
Blink.
The alternative is to lose one eighth of their market. At a time their economies are on a knife-edge. For what? An insurance policy they say we won't need?
Time for some rethinking in Brussels.
Do you think if the EU dropped the back-stop it would be enough to get May's Deal through? I am not so sure - some ERG extremists would still rebel as would some Tory hardline Remainers imo.
The backstop is the key issue. If there is some minor influence of ECJ related to EU citizens in limited circs that could be sold. A payment in the billions could be sold for an orderly transfer to a FTA. But a legal agreement that cannot be exited is a concern to both Remainers and Leavers, I’ve heard politicians on both sides voice serious concerns.
If it's all happening as it seems, I hope someone remembers that it was Sir Graham Brady's advice to defer the vote. If that's what brings her down - his hands are all over this.
Who is going public to support her? Alan Duncan? Meanwhile, those who think they can do a better job get their act together.
I have always said that as soon as the starting pistol got fired, she would be gone. She has been working her notice. But now her time is up. She should have been gone after buggering up the election and losing the majority. She has now buggered up Brexit and left us in a constitutional muddle. Time is up.
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
I'm increasingly reaching the same conclusion. It might also be, sadly, the best. Brutal, hard, damaging, but then we rebuild. With no ECJ, no debts to the EU, completely sovereign.
It will be tough on Ireland, but then they've kinda brought it on themselves. I do not believe the UK will put a hard border across Ireland, there will be no British infrastructure.
What will the EU do then?
Blink.
The alternative is to lose one eighth of their market. At a time their economies are on a knife-edge. For what? An insurance policy they say we won't need?
Time for some rethinking in Brussels.
Do you think if the EU dropped the back-stop it would be enough to get May's Deal through? I am not so sure - some ERG extremists would still rebel as would some Tory hardline Remainers imo.
A decent chance. (edit:BP wasn't asking me, please see thread context)
Whatever this deal is it won't be the final deal. We get to work that our over time, as do the EU.
The UK people can instruct their parliament to do whatever they like. There simply is no binding deal.
I agree with that... which is why quite a lot of the HoC resistance to May's Deal seems like melodramatic overacting to me.
I really want May’s deal or something like it but if we don’t get it I will vote for no deal as many times as I can.
No times then.
A second referendum looks nailed on to me now.
Not convinced. There must be a good chance that the new PM cancels A50 until UK ready to exit. They can do this if they are a leaver.
Canceling A50 is an action I find hard to believe a leaver PM could be sanctioned to do. It's most often suggested as a tactic by those who want to make remain the default rather than no deal with that as the primary goal, as there is in fact time to make a decision now, and if that decision is no deal and we need an extension we can ask for it, and it would not be in the interests of the EU to object.
So say we get the announcement tomorrow, vote scheduled on Monday, she comes back with her negotiation triumph this week and announces the vote scheduled for next Friday. Also suppose she wins the no confidence vote by a reasonable margin.
What do we think happens to the rebellion on the Meaningful Vote? Do some of the rebels say "ok, the party has decided to follow her lead" or does she go directly from a confidence vote win to a monster defeat?
I fear her plan is to punt the vote off until January. The question is whether the opposition (including her enemies within) are bright enough and co-ordinated enough to come up with anything meaningful that can be done this side of Christmas.
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
No, it depends on the bravery (or otherwise) of the Tory remainers. If they are prepared to jump ship from a government heading for your destination, it can quickly be stopped.
Jump ship to where? Tory Remainers might be willing to put up with some choice words for voting in certain ways in the Commons but if there's no deal on the table - and there now won't be if the 48 letters are in - then what can they do? Support Corbyn?
Now that it is being reported Brady has asked to see May, will there be a flurry of new letters I wonder - so people can swear to the probable victors that they were indeed on side the whole time.
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
No, it depends on the bravery (or otherwise) of the Tory remainers. If they are prepared to jump ship from a government heading for your destination, it can quickly be stopped.
No Tory MP, not even Clarke, Soubry or Grieve, would ever join or support a Corbyn led government. The rest of their social lives would be spent in a sad, solitary Purgatory.
I think the key there is 'Tory MP'. Some are flirting on the edge of the party just as some Labour MPs were before they left. Heck, some are leaking that many would leave the party if the wrong person became leader. Clarke I am sure would not - he's been a Tory MP for 48 years, longer than many of his colleagues have been alive, and despite being an ardent EU fan backs this deal to leave, but some of the others? Perhaps they would, in the end, make it their last act as a Tory MP.
If they care that much about remaining it should come above the party.
And they do. A few of them at least. They are aghast at how unconservative their party has become.
If it's all happening as it seems, I hope someone remembers that it was Sir Graham Brady's advice to defer the vote. If that's what brings her down - his hands are all over this.
Perhaps he has letters of no confidence in the event of TMay losing the vote?
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
I'm increasingly reaching the same conclusion. It might also be, sadly, the best. Brutal, hard, damaging, but then we rebuild. With no ECJ, no debts to the EU, completely sovereign.
It will be tough on Ireland, but then they've kinda brought it on themselves. I do not believe the UK will put a hard border across Ireland, there will be no British infrastructure.
What will the EU do then?
Blink.
The alternative is to lose one eighth of their market. At a time their economies are on a knife-edge. For what? An insurance policy they say we won't need?
Time for some rethinking in Brussels.
Do you think if the EU dropped the back-stop it would be enough to get May's Deal through? I am not so sure - some ERG extremists would still rebel as would some Tory hardline Remainers imo.
A decent chance. (edit:BP wasn't asking me, please see thread context)
Whatever this deal is it won't be the final deal. We get to work that our over time, as do the EU.
The UK people can instruct their parliament to do whatever they like. There simply is no binding deal.
I agree with that... which is why quite a lot of the HoC resistance to May's Deal seems like melodramatic overacting to me.
Indeed. I don't doubt there is plenty of real outrage too, but a lot of it includes assumptions of permanent failure of the UK to do anything in the future, which if they believe that makes me wonder how they think we could manage no deal.
I really want May’s deal or something like it but if we don’t get it I will vote for no deal as many times as I can.
No times then.
A second referendum looks nailed on to me now.
Not convinced. There must be a good chance that the new PM cancels A50 until UK ready to exit. They can do this if they are a leaver.
Canceling A50 is an action I find hard to believe a leaver PM could be sanctioned to do. It's most often suggested as a tactic by those who want to make remain the default rather than no deal with that as the primary goal, as there is in fact time to make a decision now, and if that decision is no deal and we need an extension we can ask for it, and it would not be in the interests of the EU to object.
There are not the votes in Parliament to get a crash out Brexit through. A new PM trying to do this risks splitting the union and the Queen removing them.
Now that it is being reported Brady has asked to see May, will there be a flurry of new letters I wonder - so people can swear to the probable victors that they were indeed on side the whole time.
As little as a week ago it was being widely and confidently predicted that May would win a confidence vote.
If it's all happening as it seems, I hope someone remembers that it was Sir Graham Brady's advice to defer the vote. If that's what brings her down - his hands are all over this.
Perhaps he has letters of no confidence in the event of TMay losing the vote?
Good point - although did I hear that such conditional, future letters weren't counted? Suspect it will become academic very quickly.
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
No, it depends on the bravery (or otherwise) of the Tory remainers. If they are prepared to jump ship from a government heading for your destination, it can quickly be stopped.
No Tory MP, not even Clarke, Soubry or Grieve, would ever join or support a Corbyn led government. The rest of their social lives would be spent in a sad, solitary Purgatory.
I think the key there is 'Tory MP'. Some are flirting on the edge of the party just as some Labour MPs were before they left. Heck, some are leaking that many would leave the party if the wrong person became leader. Clarke I am sure would not - he's been a Tory MP for 48 years, longer than many of his colleagues have been alive, and despite being an ardent EU fan backs this deal to leave, but some of the others? Perhaps they would, in the end, make it their last act as a Tory MP.
If they care that much about remaining it should come above the party.
And they do. A few of them at least. They are aghast at how unconservative their party has become.
The question, though, is whether they are so aghast they would take down the government if that is what it took.
The point is simple. To be in charge. To dole out favours and patronage to idolising sycophants and to salve the inadequacy of the candidate in charge.
What is the new leader going to do? Renegotiate? Really?? The EU will likely tell them to take a running jump. The current WA and political declaration has taken 18 months. Why would a new one be negotiated, agreed and voted on in, what, 2-3 weeks?
Ask for an extension? To do what? A referendum?
Revoke Article 50? Possibly but not if some mad Leaver wins, which seems all too likely.
So what is the point? Or is this just self-indulgent wankery by the Tories to prove - beyond all reasonable doubt to even the dimmest of us - that they are currently unfit for office?
Oh! I am sorry - you thought that the purpose of being the next Leader was to do the best for the country? The reality appears to be that they do not give a flying f*** about the country, only about themselves and their obsessions.
I think my cynicism glands are inflamed
Frankly, if I were the EU I would be tempted now to say in words loud and clear that:-
1. No matter who the PM is there is only one WA deal and political withdrawal on the table; 2. The EU is not going to waste any more time entering into negotiations when it is clear that the British Parliament is unwilling/unable to ratify any agreement reached; 2. The UK will leave at 11 pm on March 29th 2019; 3. Britain can revoke Article 50 right up to that moment unilaterally and, if it did so, would be welcomed back with open arms; 4. The EU will only agree an extension to Article 50 if this is to ensure ratification of the deal or a referendum on whether it wishes to Remain or accept the deal, in short, only if there is a referendum which changes the current trajectory i.e. Britain's departure without a deal on 29th March.
Over to you Britain.
There is no earthly reason why the rest of the EU should facilitate the self-indulgence of Britain's current political class, whatever party they come from.
And yet the plans of both sides opposed to the deal are insistent the EU will do just that, it is quite remarkable.
The EU probably should do as you suggest. It would be the end of May, but she should have gone already given her whole ploy was about this being it.
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
No, it depends on the bravery (or otherwise) of the Tory remainers. If they are prepared to jump ship from a government heading for your destination, it can quickly be stopped.
Jump ship to where? Tory Remainers might be willing to put up with some choice words for voting in certain ways in the Commons but if there's no deal on the table - and there now won't be if the 48 letters are in - then what can they do? Support Corbyn?
I don't doubt for a second that several of them would, by default. Brexit or remain is more important, just as it is for their main opponents (by which i mean other Tories).
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
No, it depends on the bravery (or otherwise) of the Tory remainers. If they are prepared to jump ship for a government heading for your destination, it can quickly be stopped.
Not convinced jumping ship even helps. They have to wait until May's deal fails assuming she lasts that long. That's late January. If they jump ship without Corbyn being supplanted all they would achieve is a general election - taking government formation right up to the exit date deadline.
Worth noting that if Labour is able to trigger a general election after a VoNC following a vote on a Deal on Jan 21, by my reckoning the most likely date for the election would be March 14.
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
No, it depends on the bravery (or otherwise) of the Tory remainers. If they are prepared to jump ship from a government heading for your destination, it can quickly be stopped.
No Tory MP, not even Clarke, Soubry or Grieve, would ever join or support a Corbyn led government. The rest of their social lives would be spent in a sad, solitary Purgatory.
If it were temporary to do one job, in the national interest, before going to a GE, its survivable. Their futures within the increasingly nutty Tory party don't offer much promise, anyhow. And a short term unity government doesn't have to be led by Corbyn - his prize is the GE that follows.
Now that it is being reported Brady has asked to see May, will there be a flurry of new letters I wonder - so people can swear to the probable victors that they were indeed on side the whole time.
To be fair the fact that TMay has delayed the vote and is frustrating the will of Parliament could be a fair reason for sending a letter. As per above even remainers are talking about letters where before it was the ERG.
What'd be nice is if we could have separate acronyms for votes of no confidence in party leaders and votes of no confidence in governments. To make reading some tweets less confusing...
+1
You can't even add a clarifying letter for Parliament or Party...
So say we get the announcement tomorrow, vote scheduled on Monday, she comes back with her negotiation triumph this week and announces the vote scheduled for next Friday. Also suppose she wins the no confidence vote by a reasonable margin.
What do we think happens to the rebellion on the Meaningful Vote? Do some of the rebels say "ok, the party has decided to follow her lead" or does she go directly from a confidence vote win to a monster defeat?
I fear her plan is to punt the vote off until January. The question is whether the opposition (including her enemies within) are bright enough and co-ordinated enough to come up with anything meaningful that can be done this side of Christmas.
That seems to be her current stated plan, but if you imagine that she's cunning and not merely shit (I don't know, it always looks like the second but the fact that she's still there implies the first) an actual strategy would be: Delay losing the meaningful vote until after the confidence vote. Having won the confidence vote, she's safe from the ERG. Then after losing the meaningful vote, pivot to negotiating with MPs in other parties.
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
No, it depends on the bravery (or otherwise) of the Tory remainers. If they are prepared to jump ship from a government heading for your destination, it can quickly be stopped.
No Tory MP, not even Clarke, Soubry or Grieve, would ever join or support a Corbyn led government. The rest of their social lives would be spent in a sad, solitary Purgatory.
I think the key there is 'Tory MP'. Some are flirting on the edge of the party just as some Labour MPs were before they left. Heck, some are leaking that many would leave the party if the wrong person became leader. Clarke I am sure would not - he's been a Tory MP for 48 years, longer than many of his colleagues have been alive, and despite being an ardent EU fan backs this deal to leave, but some of the others? Perhaps they would, in the end, make it their last act as a Tory MP.
If they care that much about remaining it should come above the party.
According to the HoC website, the current strength of the Tories and the DUP is 325 seats.
The Opposition, assuming all the Independents line up with them, and excluding Sinn Fein and Mr Speaker, total 318 seats.
I'm assuming the Speaker would have to back the sitting Government in the event of a tie, so the threshold for a successful vote of confidence is five defections.
Wollaston and Allen have previously been suggested as potential switchers, because they're Europhile and would be in with a fighting chance of holding their seats as Lib Dems. Three more anybody?
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
I'm increasingly reaching the same conclusion. It might also be, sadly, the best. Brutal, hard, damaging, but then we rebuild. With no ECJ, no debts to the EU, completely sovereign.
It will be tough on Ireland, but then they've kinda brought it on themselves. I do not believe the UK will put a hard border across Ireland, there will be no British infrastructure.
What will the EU do then?
I really want May’s deal or something like it but if we don’t get it I will vote for no deal as many times as I can.
The ratio of politicians that would put such an idiotic proposition to the public to those that wouldn't is in the region of 1:10
So say we get the announcement tomorrow, vote scheduled on Monday, she comes back with her negotiation triumph this week and announces the vote scheduled for next Friday. Also suppose she wins the no confidence vote by a reasonable margin.
What do we think happens to the rebellion on the Meaningful Vote? Do some of the rebels say "ok, the party has decided to follow her lead" or does she go directly from a confidence vote win to a monster defeat?
I fear her plan is to punt the vote off until January. The question is whether the opposition (including her enemies within) are bright enough and co-ordinated enough to come up with anything meaningful that can be done this side of Christmas.
I hope so, I'd at least like to know that even an idiot plan is to be tried, rather than be completely in limbo.
It does feel like her plan to punt the vote into January finally snapped despondent loyalists awake though. It was so pathetic, so brazen in being about trying to save her position (since there's no practical improvement for the UK's position in trying to negotitate without a failed vote vs trying to negotiate with one), that it just could not be borne any further.
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
Barring a sizeable Tory rebellion, it sounds fairly likely. The ERGonauts are quite happy to force a leadership election, as the time wasted takes us closer to the end of March even if they don’t win. And it’s prett well impossible to see an alternate leader making any advance on May’s deal.
Is an alternate government supported by a couple of dozen Tories, purely to allow revocation of Article 50 a possibility, though?
What is the new leader going to do? Renegotiate? Really?? The EU will likely tell them to take a running jump. The current WA and political declaration has taken 18 months. Why would a new one be negotiated, agreed and voted on in, what, 2-3 weeks?
Ask for an extension? To do what? A referendum?
Revoke Article 50? Possibly but not if some mad Leaver wins, which seems all too likely.
So what is the point? Or is this just self-indulgent wankery by the Tories to prove - beyond all reasonable doubt to even the dimmest of us - that they are currently unfit for office?
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
No, it depends on the bravery (or otherwise) of the Tory remainers. If they are prepared to jump ship from a government heading for your destination, it can quickly be stopped.
No Tory MP, not even Clarke, Soubry or Grieve, would ever join or support a Corbyn led government. The rest of their social lives would be spent in a sad, solitary Purgatory.
If it were temporary to do one job, in the national interest, before going to a GE, its survivable. Their futures within the increasingly nutty Tory party don't offer much promise, anyhow. And a short term unity government doesn't have to be led by Corbyn - his prize is the GE that follows.
Agreed. I think the key is Corbyn, tho. Not only is he a mad Marxist, he is also a Leaver. He's an impossible obstacle for Tory Remainers. If he doesn't lead, then anything could happen.
Well he hasn't been leading for some time now, and anything has certainly been happening.
Now that it is being reported Brady has asked to see May, will there be a flurry of new letters I wonder - so people can swear to the probable victors that they were indeed on side the whole time.
As little as a week ago it was being widely and confidently predicted that May would win a confidence vote.
What is the view now?
All joking aside, that BigG thinks May needs to go truly does seem significant in terms of guessing what unhappy Tory MPs might be thinking.
We could see all Conservative MPs voting for the PM in a parliamentary confidence vote but many voting against her in a Conservative Party confidence vote.
Currently a political party broadcast on behalf of the Conservative Party on Channel 4. Conservatives apparently good for small businesses.
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
I'm increasingly reaching the same conclusion. It might also be, sadly, the best. Brutal, hard, damaging, but then we rebuild. With no ECJ, no debts to the EU, completely sovereign.
It will be tough on Ireland, but then they've kinda brought it on themselves. I do not believe the UK will put a hard border across Ireland, there will be no British infrastructure.
What will the EU do then?
Blink.
The alternative is to lose one eighth of their market. At a time their economies are on a knife-edge. For what? An insurance policy they say we won't need?
Time for some rethinking in Brussels.
One eighth of their market, one billion pounds a month, eight of their ten best universities, the union's largest and deepest capital market, the CCPs for seventy trillion of derivs contracts, a third of a million square miles of fishing waters, a major export market for EU8 unemployment, the insurers for every second airframe on the continent, the quickest route between the continent and Ireland, etc.
And to secure a backstop they don't want to use which protects against border infrastructure both sides have ruled out building?
---Just seen the tweets about Brady---
IF there is a Con internal VONC, surely that's the time Corbyn calls a parly VONC? Then there are at least 48 Con MPs who don't support the PM. How can they say they support the Govt but not the PM?
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
No, it depends on the bravery (or otherwise) of the Tory remainers. If they are prepared to jump ship from a government heading for your destination, it can quickly be stopped.
No Tory MP, not even Clarke, Soubry or Grieve, would ever join or support a Corbyn led government. The rest of their social lives would be spent in a sad, solitary Purgatory.
I think the key there is 'Tory MP'. Some are flirting on the edge of the party just as some Labour MPs were before they left. Heck, some are leaking that many would leave the party if the wrong person became leader. Clarke I am sure would not - he's been a Tory MP for 48 years, longer than many of his colleagues have been alive, and despite being an ardent EU fan backs this deal to leave, but some of the others? Perhaps they would, in the end, make it their last act as a Tory MP.
If they care that much about remaining it should come above the party.
According to the HoC website, the current strength of the Tories and the DUP is 325 seats.
The Opposition, assuming all the Independents line up with them, and excluding Sinn Fein and Mr Speaker, total 318 seats.
I'm assuming the Speaker would have to back the sitting Government in the event of a tie, so the threshold for a successful vote of confidence is five defections.
Wollaston and Allen have previously been suggested as potential switchers, because they're Europhile and would be in with a fighting chance of holding their seats as Lib Dems. Three more anybody?
Clarke and Soubry makes four, I am sure there is at least one more.
May should have tipped it over 48 when she had the chance to win it easily. She’ll struggle now. What if she wins? How screwed would the Tories be then?
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
No, it depends on the bravery (or otherwise) of the Tory remainers. If they are prepared to jump ship from a government heading for your destination, it can quickly be stopped.
No Tory MP, not even Clarke, Soubry or Grieve, would ever join or support a Corbyn led government. The rest of their social lives would be spent in a sad, solitary Purgatory.
I think the key the
If they care that much about remaining it should come above the party.
According to the HoC website, the current strength of the Tories and the DUP is 325 seats.
The Opposition, assuming all the Independents line up with them, and excluding Sinn Fein and Mr Speaker, total 318 seats.
I'm assuming the Speaker would have to back the sitting Government in the event of a tie, so the threshold for a successful vote of confidence is five defections.
Wollaston and Allen have previously been suggested as potential switchers, because they're Europhile and would be in with a fighting chance of holding their seats as Lib Dems. Three more anybody?
I'm not entirely convinced Bercow would give a fig about precedent, he hates the government that much, but hopefully he would not be so foolish as to breach that convention.
There's also a couple of Independents who are Tories on suspension who could presumably be relied upon (there's actually 9 IND MPs at the moment, which feels quite high).
I really want May’s deal or something like it but if we don’t get it I will vote for no deal as many times as I can.
No times then.
A second referendum looks nailed on to me now.
I hope you're right. If that resulted in a vote for No Deal at least we as a nation would know we had voted for the pain that follows.
It means the anti democrats have won. Be careful what you wish for.
Having a national vote means the anti-democrats have won!? Er, right...
We had a national vote. A minority refuse to accept it despite having been elected on that basis.
We're not going to agree on this one are we David. I respect your view but disagree.
FWIW I think a 2nd referendum would confirm a Deal Leave.
We had a national vote - the simple fact is that what we was told was simple actually turned out to be beyond possible.
Also we aren't ready - I was speaking to a Software Development team in a Government Department today - to say they are unready for no deal would be a complete understatement.
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
I'm increasingly reaching the same conclusion. It might also be, sadly, the best. Brutal, hard, damaging, but then we rebuild. With no ECJ, no debts to the EU, completely sovereign.
It will be tough on Ireland, but then they've kinda brought it on themselves. I do not believe the UK will put a hard border across Ireland, there will be no British infrastructure.
What will the EU do then?
Blink.
The alternative is to lose one eighth of their market. At a time their economies are on a knife-edge. For what? An insurance policy they say we won't need?
Time for some rethinking in Brussels.
One eighth of their market, one billion pounds a month, eight of their ten best universities, the union's largest and deepest capital market, the CCPs for seventy trillion of derivs contracts, a third of a million square miles of fishing waters, a major export market for EU8 unemployment, the insurers for every second airframe on the continent, the quickest route between the continent and Ireland, etc.
And to secure a backstop they don't want to use which protects against border infrastructure both sides have ruled out building?
---Just seen the tweets about Brady---
IF there is a Con internal VONC, surely that's the time Corbyn calls a parly VONC? Then there are at least 48 Con MPs who don't support the PM. How can they say they support the Govt but not the PM?
Do the letters have to state the MP has no confidence in the leader, or is asking for a vote of confidence enough? One could theoretically have confidence but still want a vote.
Well, if some other Tory numpty becomes PM I am looking forward to seeing him / her go to Brussels to "renegotiate" and then be told that the only deal is on offer is the one we already know about and will he/she please stop bothering the EU as they have no deal preparations to be getting on with.
And then we will have the sight of Corbyn turning up to "renegotiate" and when Barnier and Co have stopped laughing, he and Starmer will be told the same message. And then we can watch Corbyn realise that his government will be consumed by having to deal with the consequences of Brexit.
And we can also watch McDonnell realise that his plan to pay for all the nice things Labour will promise can't be paid for by taxing the rich or companies or the City because they will be decamping to the EU to do business there rather than stay in a country where the politicians don't seem to understand that tearing up long-standing arrangements and agreements without putting anything in their place is not really, all things considered, conducive to making yourself a sought-for destination in which to do business or plan your life.
IF there is a Con internal VONC, surely that's the time Corbyn calls a parly VONC? Then there are at least 48 Con MPs who don't support the PM. How can they say they support the Govt but not the PM?
? Eh ? Is this the mad delusion that is sweeping Twitter ?
NONE of the 48 letters in will VONC the Government. It's such a different act I can't even begin to describe how different it is.
I really want May’s deal or something like it but if we don’t get it I will vote for no deal as many times as I can.
No times then.
A second referendum looks nailed on to me now.
And how's that going to happen? (I assume you don't mean that people are going round nailing referendums on to you, and that you've two so far).
Parliament will find a way. Over 500 of them were elected on the basis they would implement the previous vote but they are liars. There is a large majority for remain but even they would be too ashamed to reverse their position without a referendum to hide behind.
So say we get the announcement tomorrow, vote scheduled on Monday, she comes back with her negotiation triumph this week and announces the vote scheduled for next Friday. Also suppose she wins the no confidence vote by a reasonable margin.
What do we think happens to the rebellion on the Meaningful Vote? Do some of the rebels say "ok, the party has decided to follow her lead" or does she go directly from a confidence vote win to a monster defeat?
I fear her plan is to punt the vote off until January. The question is whether the opposition (including her enemies within) are bright enough and co-ordinated enough to come up with anything meaningful that can be done this side of Christmas.
That seems to be her current stated plan, but if you imagine that she's cunning and not merely shit (I don't know, it always looks like the second but the fact that she's still there implies the first) an actual strategy would be: Delay losing the meaningful vote until after the confidence vote. Having won the confidence vote, she's safe from the ERG. Then after losing the meaningful vote, pivot to negotiating with MPs in other parties.
If Tory MPs take her to VONC now, I think the public (including many Tory members) will feel this untimely and injust, and want to keep her. Especially in the absence of any commendable replacement. Thus she could win the MPs NC vote and plough on into 2019.
May should have tipped it over 48 when she had the chance to win it easily. She’ll struggle now. What if she wins? How screwed would the Tories be then?
It's a fascinating scenario - she would at best I think scrape over the line, the sort of result you'd usually resign on, but she would have no obligation to. But she'd still not be able to get her deal through, have failed to renegotiate, and probably could not carry a vote to authorise a referendum. She'd be a party leader and PM despite not being able to command a majority for anything other than a confidence vote as long as the DUP decided to toy with her.
@bbclaurak Follow Follow @bbclaurak More Hearing that SirGraham Brady has asked to see the PM after #pmqs tmrw, and multiple sources, including senior tories and a cabinet minister, telling us tonight they believe the threshold of 48 letters has been reached - v unlikely to be any confirmation until tomorrow
1. Lay Corbyn for as much as possible. 2. Look to Con ministers capable of acting as consensus candidates in the context of delivering No Deal. Raab seems well placed. Boris not, Gove not, Hunt not, Hammond certainly not, Javid possibly, Davis (ugh) possibly.
We could see all Conservative MPs voting for the PM in a parliamentary confidence vote but many voting against her in a Conservative Party confidence vote.
Currently a political party broadcast on behalf of the Conservative Party on Channel 4. Conservatives apparently good for small businesses.
I really want May’s deal or something like it but if we don’t get it I will vote for no deal as many times as I can.
No times then.
A second referendum looks nailed on to me now.
I hope you're right. If that resulted in a vote for No Deal at least we as a nation would know we had voted for the pain that follows.
It means the anti democrats have won. Be careful what you wish for.
Having a national vote means the anti-democrats have won!? Er, right...
We had a national vote. A minority refuse to accept it despite having been elected on that basis.
I'm not even sure that is correct. Most individual remain MPs have been very open aout their beliefs. It is true that the vote should be respected but the main opponents of the deal on offer are those who were the keenest Leavers. It is the throwing out of the pram of their toys which may well thwart Brexit completely. The Brexit on offer accurately reflects the current divided state of the nation. Polling suggests only a minority want a no deal and there is no parliamentary majority for it either. Sulk as much as you like but we are where we are.
Twitter seems utterly delighted by the prospect of the end of May. Do they realise this is going to end up in a harder Brexit PM ?
Twitter, like most of us, presumes if something they like goes down it will be replaced by something they want. Ignoring that things can always get much much worse.
May should have tipped it over 48 when she had the chance to win it easily. She’ll struggle now. What if she wins? How screwed would the Tories be then?
It's a fascinating scenario - she would at best I think scrape over the line, the sort of result you'd usually resign on, but she would have no obligation to. But she'd still not be able to get her deal through, have failed to renegotiate, and probably could not carry a vote to authorise a referendum. She'd be a party leader and PM despite not being able to command a majority for anything other than a confidence vote as long as the DUP decided to toy with her.
I think you just have to work out what is the absolute worst/messiest outcome for the country and assume that's what will happen.
May winning her VoNC by 1 vote and carrying on, I'd guess.
May should have tipped it over 48 when she had the chance to win it easily. She’ll struggle now. What if she wins? How screwed would the Tories be then?
It's a fascinating scenario - she would at best I think scrape over the line, the sort of result you'd usually resign on, but she would have no obligation to. But she'd still not be able to get her deal through, have failed to renegotiate, and probably could not carry a vote to authorise a referendum. She'd be a party leader and PM despite not being able to command a majority for anything other than a confidence vote as long as the DUP decided to toy with her.
Ironically, if she'd had the vote in the Commons, even with a hefty defeat, she'd have probably won handily, in the absence of anyone else. Delaying just annoyed a lot who wanted their moment of catharsis. This could be it instead.
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
No, it depends on the bravery (or otherwise) of the Tory remainers. If they are prepared to jump ship from a government heading for your destination, it can quickly be stopped.
No Tory MP, not even Clarke, Soubry or Grieve, would ever join or support a Corbyn led government. The rest of their social lives would be spent in a sad, solitary Purgatory.
I think the key there is 'Tory MP'. Some are flirting on the edge of the party just as some Labour MPs were before they left. Heck, some are leaking that many would leave the party if the wrong person became leader. Clarke I am sure would not - he's been a Tory MP for 48 years, longer than many of his colleagues have been alive, and despite being an ardent EU fan backs this deal to leave, but some of the others? Perhaps they would, in the end, make it their last act as a Tory MP.
If they care that much about remaining it should come above the party.
According to the HoC website, the current strength of the Tories and the DUP is 325 seats.
The Opposition, assuming all the Independents line up with them, and excluding Sinn Fein and Mr Speaker, total 318 seats.
I'm assuming the Speaker would have to back the sitting Government in the event of a tie, so the threshold for a successful vote of confidence is five defections.
Wollaston and Allen have previously been suggested as potential switchers, because they're Europhile and would be in with a fighting chance of holding their seats as Lib Dems. Three more anybody?
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
No, it depends on the bravery (or otherwise) of the Tory remainers. If they are prepared to jump ship from a government heading for your destination, it can quickly be stopped.
No Tory MP, not even Clarke, Soubry or Grieve, would ever join or support a Corbyn led government. The rest of their social lives would be spent in a sad, solitary Purgatory.
If it were temporary to do one job, in the national interest, before going to a GE, its survivable. Their futures within the increasingly nutty Tory party don't offer much promise, anyhow. And a short term unity government doesn't have to be led by Corbyn - his prize is the GE that follows.
Agreed. I think the key is Corbyn, tho. Not only is he a mad Marxist, he is also a Leaver. He's an impossible obstacle for Tory Remainers. If he doesn't lead, then anything could happen.
In Corbyn's letter to Santa, leaving the EU is at best in the P.S.
I really want May’s deal or something like it but if we don’t get it I will vote for no deal as many times as I can.
No times then.
A second referendum looks nailed on to me now.
And how's that going to happen? (I assume you don't mean that people are going round nailing referendums on to you, and that you've two so far).
Parliament will find a way. Over 500 of them were elected on the basis they would implement the previous vote but they are liars. There is a large majority for remain but even they would be too ashamed to reverse their position without a referendum to hide behind.
Odds?
I'd say now it's:
50% chance No Deal 30% chance Referendum 15% chance Resurrected TMay Deal 5% chance something slightly weirder, some kind of black swan: e.g. Juncker reveals he's a pedo, and Donald Tusk consequently explodes, as a result the broken software in Brussels makes Bill Cash the Emperor of Europe and Easter Island
I think more like 65% referendum #2, this time we mean it; 30% no deal and May’s effort 5%.
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
No, it depends on the bravery (or otherwise) of the Tory remainers. If they are prepared to jump ship from a government heading for your destination, it can quickly be stopped.
No Tory MP, not even Clarke, Soubry or Grieve, would ever join or support a Corbyn led government. The rest of their social lives would be spent in a sad, solitary Purgatory.
I think the key there is 'Tory MP'. Some are flirting on the edge of the party just as some Labour MPs were before they left. Heck, some are leaking that many would leave the party if the wrong person became leader. Clarke I am sure would not - he's been a Tory MP for 48 years, longer than many of his colleagues have been alive, and despite being an ardent EU fan backs this deal to leave, but some of the others? Perhaps they would, in the end, make it their last act as a Tory MP.
If they care that much about remaining it should come above the party.
According to the HoC website, the current strength of the Tories and the DUP is 325 seats.
The Opposition, assuming all the Independents line up with them, and excluding Sinn Fein and Mr Speaker, total 318 seats.
I'm assuming the Speaker would have to back the sitting Government in the event of a tie, so the threshold for a successful vote of confidence is five defections.
Wollaston and Allen have previously been suggested as potential switchers, because they're Europhile and would be in with a fighting chance of holding their seats as Lib Dems. Three more anybody?
There are 4 Speakers altogether, and don't usually vote in divisions. There are always 2 from the government side and 2 from the opposition, so they cancel each other out.
We're probably going to leave without a 'deal', which is by far the most sensible solution. If you think about it, a period of calm reflection is needed before any 'deals' are struck, be they with America, Australia, the EU or anywhere else.
No one is going to be making good decisions and negotiating with due rigour with the attitude of signing any old shite through, either because they're scared of life after Brexit, or trying to get 'quick wins' to vindicate their free trade Brexit visions.
As a country, we need to realise we're not made of glass and we are a viable unit in the world. That can't come until we have a period of just 'existing'.
What you are suggesting should surely mean revoking Article 50 and then working out where we stand. Plunging into chaos and immediately needing a deal is seriously dangerous -on multiple levels - and I'm staggerer so many people are flippant about it. Truly saloon bar politics.
It isn't 'plunging into chaos', and such tabloid hyperbole is no substitute for an argument. It would be good if you could furnish facts or at least informed predictions of what exactly what you think we would be 'plunging into', but 'plunging into delays at Dover and Mars Bar shortages doesn't sound so apocalyptic does it?
1. Lay Corbyn for as much as possible. 2. Look to Con ministers capable of acting as consensus candidates in the context of delivering No Deal. Raab seems well placed. Boris not, Gove not, Hunt not, Hammond certainly not, Javid possibly, Davis (ugh) possibly.
How can they achieve a consensus to deliver no deal? Yes it is default outcome for no deal to happen, but there's enough Tories who will block any preparations which might require legislation or, at that point, break ranks on a no confidence vote no matter the cost, to prevent them having a majority still surely?
You are generally good at noting a poor outcome for the Tories, but is managing no deal really viable for them without them falling to pieces?
I love the smell of Tory infighting in the morning........smells like victory! I feel a little sorry for May. She has done her best after getting a hospital pass from Cameron, and then chucking the ball in her own net with that crazy snap election. Still, anything that causes a bit o' chaos is always good fun, and if it means a few of our elected members on all sides get to feel uncomfortable then that's all good too.
We're probably going to leave without a 'deal', which is by far the most sensible solution. If you think about it, a period of calm reflection is needed before any 'deals' are struck, be they with America, Australia, the EU or anywhere else.
Really? What do we do for trade when we invalidate all our legal agreements and treaties? Do you seriously think there will be "Calm reflection" when things stop arriving or have tariffs applied?
What is the process for the UK to agree the deal. Does the EU need a "UK Parliament Approved" stamp?
I mean, could May just agree it with them. How much more chaotic could it be? Bollocks to extending A50 unilaterally, go the whole hog and sign the deal herself.
I think we need to pass Primary legislation to implement it into UK law.
May should have tipped it over 48 when she had the chance to win it easily. She’ll struggle now. What if she wins? How screwed would the Tories be then?
It's a fascinating scenario - she would at best I think scrape over the line, the sort of result you'd usually resign on, but she would have no obligation to. But she'd still not be able to get her deal through, have failed to renegotiate, and probably could not carry a vote to authorise a referendum. She'd be a party leader and PM despite not being able to command a majority for anything other than a confidence vote as long as the DUP decided to toy with her.
I think you just have to work out what is the absolute worst/messiest outcome for the country and assume that's what will happen.
May winning her VoNC by 1 vote and carrying on, I'd guess.
Yes - the effort it has taken to get to 48 suggests that May should win by a big enough margin to tough it out for now. If the ultras did succeed in taking over the party they would lose my vote - for the first time in over 40myears.
1. Lay Corbyn for as much as possible. 2. Look to Con ministers capable of acting as consensus candidates in the context of delivering No Deal. Raab seems well placed. Boris not, Gove not, Hunt not, Hammond certainly not, Javid possibly, Davis (ugh) possibly.
The rumours about the letters need to be true this time, and then a majority of Tory MPs have to vote to get rid of May.
However, if these things do happen... with the usual disclaimers about my limited knowledge and cracked crystal ball, I'd be tending towards Javid, if he wants it. Although if he makes it to a run-off then it also depends heavily on whom the opponent is.
(Edit: I was thinking about this the other day. If the opposing wings of the party are each too afraid of capture by the other side, then they might end up sticking to nurse for fear of even worse, and May could win this comfortably. I mean, at this stage, who bloody knows?)
1. Lay Corbyn for as much as possible. 2. Look to Con ministers capable of acting as consensus candidates in the context of delivering No Deal. Raab seems well placed. Boris not, Gove not, Hunt not, Hammond certainly not, Javid possibly, Davis (ugh) possibly.
The rumours about the letters need to be true this time, and then a majority of Tory MPs have to vote to get rid of May.
However, if these things do happen... with the usual disclaimers about my limited knowledge and cracked crystal ball, I'd be tending towards Javid, if he wants it. Although if he makes it to a run-off then it also depends heavily on whom the opponent is.
It is all so pointless though if changes to the deal aren't possible and no deal will spook enough to flip. Whoever is leader won't make a difference then.
And what do we tell the EU while the Tories have a 'I'll promise the most' competition?
I really want May’s deal or something like it but if we don’t get it I will vote for no deal as many times as I can.
No times then.
A second referendum looks nailed on to me now.
And how's that going to happen? (I assume you don't mean that people are going round nailing referendums on to you, and that you've two so far).
Parliament will find a way. Over 500 of them were elected on the basis they would implement the previous vote but they are liars. There is a large majority for remain but even they would be too ashamed to reverse their position without a referendum to hide behind.
More to the point, with hindsight it is obvious that there should have been some majority or turnout threshold for the referendum before we make such a significant and dramatic change to our country's future. In the absence of such (and it is now too late), asking voters to confirm their intentions again before passing the point of no return is both reasonable and justifiable.
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If they care that much about remaining it should come above the party.
What do we think happens to the rebellion on the Meaningful Vote? Do some of the rebels say "ok, the party has decided to follow her lead" or does she go directly from a confidence vote win to a monster defeat?
Whatever this deal is it won't be the final deal. We get to work that our over time, as do the EU.
The UK people can instruct their parliament to do whatever they like. There simply is no binding deal.
Who is going public to support her? Alan Duncan? Meanwhile, those who think they can do a better job get their act together.
I have always said that as soon as the starting pistol got fired, she would be gone. She has been working her notice. But now her time is up. She should have been gone after buggering up the election and losing the majority. She has now buggered up Brexit and left us in a constitutional muddle. Time is up.
What is the view now?
(oops, slow posting syndrome).
The Opposition, assuming all the Independents line up with them, and excluding Sinn Fein and Mr Speaker, total 318 seats.
I'm assuming the Speaker would have to back the sitting Government in the event of a tie, so the threshold for a successful vote of confidence is five defections.
Wollaston and Allen have previously been suggested as potential switchers, because they're Europhile and would be in with a fighting chance of holding their seats as Lib Dems. Three more anybody?
FWIW I think a 2nd referendum would confirm a Deal Leave.
It does feel like her plan to punt the vote into January finally snapped despondent loyalists awake though. It was so pathetic, so brazen in being about trying to save her position (since there's no practical improvement for the UK's position in trying to negotitate without a failed vote vs trying to negotiate with one), that it just could not be borne any further.
Currently a political party broadcast on behalf of the Conservative Party on Channel 4. Conservatives apparently good for small businesses.
And to secure a backstop they don't want to use which protects against border infrastructure both sides have ruled out building?
---Just seen the tweets about Brady---
IF there is a Con internal VONC, surely that's the time Corbyn calls a parly VONC? Then there are at least 48 Con MPs who don't support the PM. How can they say they support the Govt but not the PM?
There's also a couple of Independents who are Tories on suspension who could presumably be relied upon (there's actually 9 IND MPs at the moment, which feels quite high).
Also we aren't ready - I was speaking to a Software Development team in a Government Department today - to say they are unready for no deal would be a complete understatement.
And then we will have the sight of Corbyn turning up to "renegotiate" and when Barnier and Co have stopped laughing, he and Starmer will be told the same message. And then we can watch Corbyn realise that his government will be consumed by having to deal with the consequences of Brexit.
And we can also watch McDonnell realise that his plan to pay for all the nice things Labour will promise can't be paid for by taxing the rich or companies or the City because they will be decamping to the EU to do business there rather than stay in a country where the politicians don't seem to understand that tearing up long-standing arrangements and agreements without putting anything in their place is not really, all things considered, conducive to making yourself a sought-for destination in which to do business or plan your life.
What larks!
NONE of the 48 letters in will VONC the Government. It's such a different act I can't even begin to describe how different it is.
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Hearing that SirGraham Brady has asked to see the PM after #pmqs tmrw, and multiple sources, including senior tories and a cabinet minister, telling us tonight they believe the threshold of 48 letters has been reached - v unlikely to be any confirmation until tomorrow
Two thoughts.
1. Lay Corbyn for as much as possible.
2. Look to Con ministers capable of acting as consensus candidates in the context of delivering No Deal. Raab seems well placed. Boris not, Gove not, Hunt not, Hammond certainly not, Javid possibly, Davis (ugh) possibly.
May winning her VoNC by 1 vote and carrying on, I'd guess.
You are generally good at noting a poor outcome for the Tories, but is managing no deal really viable for them without them falling to pieces?
I feel a little sorry for May. She has done her best after getting a hospital pass from Cameron, and then chucking the ball in her own net with that crazy snap election. Still, anything that causes a bit o' chaos is always good fun, and if it means a few of our elected members on all sides get to feel uncomfortable then that's all good too.
However, if these things do happen... with the usual disclaimers about my limited knowledge and cracked crystal ball, I'd be tending towards Javid, if he wants it. Although if he makes it to a run-off then it also depends heavily on whom the opponent is.
(Edit: I was thinking about this the other day. If the opposing wings of the party are each too afraid of capture by the other side, then they might end up sticking to nurse for fear of even worse, and May could win this comfortably. I mean, at this stage, who bloody knows?)
And what do we tell the EU while the Tories have a 'I'll promise the most' competition?