Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
No, it depends on the bravery (or otherwise) of the Tory remainers. If they are prepared to jump ship from a government heading for your destination, it can quickly be stopped.
No Tory MP, not even Clarke, Soubry or Grieve, would ever join or support a Corbyn led government. The rest of their social lives would be spent in a sad, solitary Purgatory.
I think the key there is 'Tory MP'. Some are flirting on the edge of the party just as some Labour MPs were before they left. Heck, some are leaking that many would leave the party if the wrong person became leader. Clarke I am sure would not - he's been a Tory MP for 48 years, longer than many of his colleagues have been alive, and despite being an ardent EU fan backs this deal to leave, but some of the others? Perhaps they would, in the end, make it their last act as a Tory MP.
If they care that much about remaining it should come above the party.
According to the HoC website, the current strength of the Tories and the DUP is 325 seats.
The Opposition, assuming all the Independents line up with them, and excluding Sinn Fein and Mr Speaker, total 318 seats.
I'm assuming the Speaker would have to back the sitting Government in the event of a tie, so the threshold for a successful vote of confidence is five defections.
Wollaston and Allen have previously been suggested as potential switchers, because they're Europhile and would be in with a fighting chance of holding their seats as Lib Dems. Three more anybody?
Now that it is being reported Brady has asked to see May, will there be a flurry of new letters I wonder - so people can swear to the probable victors that they were indeed on side the whole time.
As little as a week ago it was being widely and confidently predicted that May would win a confidence vote.
What is the view now?
All joking aside, that BigG thinks May needs to go truly does seem significant in terms of guessing what unhappy Tory MPs might be thinking.
I am deeply troubled that she paused the vote to go almost begging round Europe as she is better than that. I am also very concerned she seems to want to placate ERG more than the other parts of the party including the remainers
It is clear ERG do not represent my opinion and are a real threat to our economy and cohesion. She is now in a position which is falling between both sides, rather than trying to reconcile both,
If she does lose a vnoc a unity candidate is needed and a change of the narrative to supporting the deal but seeking public approval. There is more than a chance that it could win but with TM in place the referendum is unlikely to be supported and TM is risking a hard brexit that I cannot accept
TM will need to go in the Spring at the latest but I think she stands more of a chance of losing a vnoc than she has to date.
I would prefer the MP's do not vnoc her just now as I do not want her locked in place for 12 more months
I still have enormous respect for her and she has done better than anyone else could have, but the party needs a new leader in the next 6 months. However, if against all odds she gets something from the EU that sees her deal go through, I will be the first to say she has achieved the impossible
This is Jeremy’s dream come true. A totally Tory-owned no deal.
Unless No Deal turns out to be like Project Fear 1.0, and comparatively painless - which is perfectly possible (no one knows)
Let's say it's a few days of chaos, traffic jams, shortages, but then lots of small ad hoc deals are done, and things calm down. I can this happening quite easily: after all it is in no one's interest, not the EU's, or ours, or Ireland's, for trade chaos to continue. What then?
If a Tory No Deal proves to be RELATIVELY painless, then suddenly everything changes, completely.
I personally don't buy it will be like the zombie apocalypse, as you say with deals for things like air travel done.
However, I can see issues / disruptions / changes to the way big businesses operate, which cause price rises and it is easy for Jezza to blame that on the Tories (and chuck in absolutely anything else that is a problem in the country).
I really want May’s deal or something like it but if we don’t get it I will vote for no deal as many times as I can.
No times then.
A second referendum looks nailed on to me now.
I hope you're right. If that resulted in a vote for No Deal at least we as a nation would know we had voted for the pain that follows.
It means the anti democrats have won. Be careful what you wish for.
Having a national vote means the anti-democrats have won!? Er, right...
We had a national vote. A minority refuse to accept it despite having been elected on that basis.
I'm not even sure that is correct. Most individual remain MPs have been very open aout their beliefs. It is true that the vote should be respected but the main opponents of the deal on offer are those who were the keenest Leavers. It is the throwing out of the pram of their toys which may well thwart Brexit completely. The Brexit on offer accurately reflects the current divided state of the nation. Polling suggests only a minority want a no deal and there is no parliamentary majority for it either. Sulk as much as you like but we are where we are.
I’m not sulking and I support May’s deal. I also agree that the ERG would give morons a bad name. But we will pay a terrible price for this dishonesty.
We're probably going to leave without a 'deal', which is by far the most sensible solution. If you think about it, a period of calm reflection is needed before any 'deals' are struck, be they with America, Australia, the EU or anywhere else.
No one is going to be making good decisions and negotiating with due rigour with the attitude of signing any old shite through, either because they're scared of life after Brexit, or trying to get 'quick wins' to vindicate their free trade Brexit visions.
As a country, we need to realise we're not made of glass and we are a viable unit in the world. That can't come until we have a period of just 'existing'.
What you are suggesting should surely mean revoking Article 50 and then working out where we stand. Plunging into chaos and immediately needing a deal is seriously dangerous -on multiple levels - and I'm staggerer so many people are flippant about it. Truly saloon bar politics.
It isn't 'plunging into chaos', and such tabloid hyperbole is no substitute for an argument. It would be good if you could furnish facts or at least informed predictions of what exactly what you think we would be 'plunging into', but 'plunging into delays at Dover and Mars Bar shortages doesn't sound so apocalyptic does it?
999 was plagued with calls about KFC shortages a few short months ago.
We're probably going to leave without a 'deal', which is by far the most sensible solution. If you think about it, a period of calm reflection is needed before any 'deals' are struck, be they with America, Australia, the EU or anywhere else.
No one is going to be making good decisions and negotiating with due rigour with the attitude of signing any old shite through, either because they're scared of life after Brexit, or trying to get 'quick wins' to vindicate their free trade Brexit visions.
As a country, we need to realise we're not made of glass and we are a viable unit in the world. That can't come until we have a period of just 'existing'.
What you are suggesting should surely mean revoking Article 50 and then working out where we stand. Plunging into chaos and immediately needing a deal is seriously dangerous -on multiple levels - and I'm staggerer so many people are flippant about it. Truly saloon bar politics.
It isn't 'plunging into chaos', and such tabloid hyperbole is no substitute for an argument. It would be good if you could furnish facts or at least informed predictions of what exactly what you think we would be 'plunging into', but 'plunging into delays at Dover and Mars Bar shortages doesn't sound so apocalyptic does it?
Plunging into:
- Tariffs on trade with Europe - No infrastructure to manage those tariffs
At long bloody last if we’ve reached 48! I still think May will win but the margin could be perilously close and there’s little doubt she has lost the activists - in my leafy Surrey neck of the woods, I reckon the poor bloody infantry want her gone by 7 to 1! I honestly don’t know how I’d vote if I were an MP......at the very last minute, with pencil wavering in paw, I might just vote for her removal, and let the dice fall as they might.
I agree (for this evening anyway) with David H, that the likeliest outcome is No Deal.
This is Jeremy’s dream come true. A totally Tory-owned no deal.
Unless No Deal turns out to be like Project Fear 1.0, and comparatively painless - which is perfectly possible (no one knows)
Let's say it's a few days of chaos, traffic jams, shortages, but then lots of small ad hoc deals are done, and things calm down. I can this happening quite easily: after all it is in no one's interest, not the EU's, or ours, or Ireland's, for trade chaos to continue. What then?
If a Tory No Deal proves to be RELATIVELY painless, then suddenly everything changes, completely.
How much disruption did Black Wednesday, which poisoned the Tories' economic credibility for a decade (despite arguably being medium term beneficial) bring about? Sky high interest rates for a few days only. Compare and contrast, as future essay questions will ask...
We're probably going to leave without a 'deal', which is by far the most sensible solution. If you think about it, a period of calm reflection is needed before any 'deals' are struck, be they with America, Australia, the EU or anywhere else.
No one is going to be making good decisions and negotiating with due rigour with the attitude of signing any old shite through, either because they're scared of life after Brexit, or trying to get 'quick wins' to vindicate their free trade Brexit visions.
As a country, we need to realise we're not made of glass and we are a viable unit in the world. That can't come until we have a period of just 'existing'.
What you are suggesting should surely mean revoking Article 50 and then working out where we stand. Plunging into chaos and immediately needing a deal is seriously dangerous -on multiple levels - and I'm staggerer so many people are flippant about it. Truly saloon bar politics.
It isn't 'plunging into chaos', and such tabloid hyperbole is no substitute for an argument. It would be good if you could furnish facts or at least informed predictions of what exactly what you think we would be 'plunging into', but 'plunging into delays at Dover and Mars Bar shortages doesn't sound so apocalyptic does it?
999 was plagued with calls about KFC shortages a few short months ago.
1. Lay Corbyn for as much as possible. 2. Look to Con ministers capable of acting as consensus candidates in the context of delivering No Deal. Raab seems well placed. Boris not, Gove not, Hunt not, Hammond certainly not, Javid possibly, Davis (ugh) possibly.
The rumours about the letters need to be true this time, and then a majority of Tory MPs have to vote to get rid of May.
However, if these things do happen... with the usual disclaimers about my limited knowledge and cracked crystal ball, I'd be tending towards Javid, if he wants it. Although if he makes it to a run-off then it also depends heavily on whom the opponent is.
It is all so pointless though if changes to the deal aren't possible and no deal will spook enough to flip. Whoever is leader won't make a difference then.
And what do we tell the EU while the Tories have a 'I'll promise the most' competition?
If there is a successor then they'll probably have come in promising to give renegotiation one last go (which won't work, of course,) and then switch to a managed No Deal. Hence Hard Brexit becomes even more likely.
A change of Conservative leadership won't change the fundamentals. Either there's a big cross-party effort to halt No Deal, or it happens.
I really want May’s deal or something like it but if we don’t get it I will vote for no deal as many times as I can.
No times then.
A second referendum looks nailed on to me now.
And how's that going to happen? (I assume you don't mean that people are going round nailing referendums on to you, and that you've two so far).
Parliament will find a way. Over 500 of them were elected on the basis they would implement the previous vote but they are liars. There is a large majority for remain but even they would be too ashamed to reverse their position without a referendum to hide behind.
More to the point, with hindsight it is obvious that there should have been some majority or turnout threshold for the referendum before we make such a significant and dramatic change to our country's future. In the absence of such (and it is now too late), asking voters to confirm their intentions again before passing the point of no return is both reasonable and justifiable.
Turnout thresholds unfairly bias the system towards the status quo option as its supporters can improve their chances of winning by not turning up.
May should have tipped it over 48 when she had the chance to win it easily. She’ll struggle now. What if she wins? How screwed would the Tories be then?
It's a fascinating scenario - she would at best I think scrape over the line, the sort of result you'd usually resign on, but she would have no obligation to. But she'd still not be able to get her deal through, have failed to renegotiate, and probably could not carry a vote to authorise a referendum. She'd be a party leader and PM despite not being able to command a majority for anything other than a confidence vote as long as the DUP decided to toy with her.
I think you just have to work out what is the absolute worst/messiest outcome for the country and assume that's what will happen.
May winning her VoNC by 1 vote and carrying on, I'd guess.
Yes - the effort it has taken to get to 48 suggests that May should win by a big enough margin to tough it out for now. If the ultras did succeed in taking over the party they would lose my vote - for the first time in over 40myears.
40 million years?! I know PB has some older commenters, but I didn't realise you were actually from the Eocene Period.
I really want May’s deal or something like it but if we don’t get it I will vote for no deal as many times as I can.
No times then.
A second referendum looks nailed on to me now.
I hope you're right. If that resulted in a vote for No Deal at least we as a nation would know we had voted for the pain that follows.
It means the anti democrats have won. Be careful what you wish for.
Having a national vote means the anti-democrats have won!? Er, right...
We had a national vote. A minority refuse to accept it despite having been elected on that basis.
I'm not even sure that is correct. Most individual remain MPs have been very open aout their beliefs. It is true that the vote should be respected but the main opponents of the deal on offer are those who were the keenest Leavers. It is the throwing out of the pram of their toys which may well thwart Brexit completely. The Brexit on offer accurately reflects the current divided state of the nation. Polling suggests only a minority want a no deal and there is no parliamentary majority for it either. Sulk as much as you like but we are where we are.
I’m not sulking and I support May’s deal. I also agree that the ERG would give morons a bad name. But we will pay a terrible price for this dishonesty.
I think the dishonesty stakes in this whole sorry mess are pretty evenly shared but the level of delusion is exceptionally high among the ERG group - it is a boil that needs to be lanced once and for all. It may mean decades of opposition for the Tory party but they've been there before.
If Sir Graham Brady has scheduled an appointment with the PM for just after PMQs, if I was May, I would be tempted to stand up at noon and announce
"In addition to my duties in this house, I have had meetings with ministerial colleagues and others, and have withdrawn the Article 50 notification. This afternoon I shall have further such meetings."
So a minority government led by an ' unelected ' PM trying to take the country through a managed No Deal ? Good Luck with that. If you think that's thus situations equilibrium point then Good Luck.
Now that it is being reported Brady has asked to see May, will there be a flurry of new letters I wonder - so people can swear to the probable victors that they were indeed on side the whole time.
As little as a week ago it was being widely and confidently predicted that May would win a confidence vote.
What is the view now?
All joking aside, that BigG thinks May needs to go truly does seem significant in terms of guessing what unhappy Tory MPs might be thinking.
I am deeply troubled that she paused the vote to go almost begging round Europe as she is better than that. I am also very concerned she seems to want to placate ERG more than the other parts of the party including the remainers
It is clear ERG do not represent my opinion and are a real threat to our economy and cohesion. She is now in a position which is falling between both sides, rather than trying to reconcile both,
If she does lose a vnoc a unity candidate is needed and a change of the narrative to supporting the deal but seeking public approval. There is more than a chance that it could win but with TM in place the referendum is unlikely to be supported and TM is risking a hard brexit that I cannot accept
TM will need to go in the Spring at the latest but I think she stands more of a chance of losing a vnoc than she has to date.
I would prefer the MP's do not vnoc her just now as I do not want her locked in place for 12 more months
I still have enormous respect for her and she has done better than anyone else could have, but the party needs a new leader in the next 6 months. However, if against all odds she gets something from the EU that sees her deal go through, I will be the first to say she has achieved the impossible
Big_G, surely you are way too sensible and level headed to be still giving today's Tory party your support?
Shedding light on the news that there would be a two year wait until season 12, the BBC’s entertainment correspondent Lizo Mzimba has said: 'Doctor Who has almost uniquely complex filming requirements and a lengthy post-production period.'
Given the speed movies get turned around and the way Netflix operates with a successful franchise putting out a new season every year, not sure that excuse washes.
This is Jeremy’s dream come true. A totally Tory-owned no deal.
Unless No Deal turns out to be like Project Fear 1.0, and comparatively painless - which is perfectly possible (no one knows)
Let's say it's a few days of chaos, traffic jams, shortages, but then lots of small ad hoc deals are done, and things calm down. I can this happening quite easily: after all it is in no one's interest, not the EU's, or ours, or Ireland's, for trade chaos to continue. What then?
If a Tory No Deal proves to be RELATIVELY painless, then suddenly everything changes, completely.
How much disruption did Black Wednesday, which poisoned the Tories' economic credibility for a decade (despite arguably being medium term beneficial) bring about? Sky high interest rates for a few days only. Compare and contrast, as future essay questions will ask...
How much of the damage done to the Tories was done by that shock, and how much was down to an accumulation of a slow drip, drip of sleaze scandals, a generalised sense that they'd been in power too long, a revived Labour Party, and negative equity?
Several months of half-empty supermarket shelves and sharply rising unemployment would be one thing. A fortnights' shortage of lettuce and cut flowers, on the other hand, would soon be forgotten.
May should have tipped it over 48 when she had the chance to win it easily. She’ll struggle now. What if she wins? How screwed would the Tories be then?
It's a fascinating scenario - she would at best I think scrape over the line, the sort of result you'd usually resign on, but she would have no obligation to. But she'd still not be able to get her deal through, have failed to renegotiate, and probably could not carry a vote to authorise a referendum. She'd be a party leader and PM despite not being able to command a majority for anything other than a confidence vote as long as the DUP decided to toy with her.
I think you just have to work out what is the absolute worst/messiest outcome for the country and assume that's what will happen.
May winning her VoNC by 1 vote and carrying on, I'd guess.
Yes - the effort it has taken to get to 48 suggests that May should win by a big enough margin to tough it out for now. If the ultras did succeed in taking over the party they would lose my vote - for the first time in over 40myears.
40 million years?! I know PB has some older commenters, but I didn't realise you were actually from the Eocene Period.
Lol - good one - in the good old days of course it was called the Toryassic party.
May should have tipped it over 48 when she had the chance to win it easily. She’ll struggle now. What if she wins? How screwed would the Tories be then?
It's a fascinating scenario - she would at best I think scrape over the line, the sort of result you'd usually resign on, but she would have no obligation to. But she'd still not be able to get her deal through, have failed to renegotiate, and probably could not carry a vote to authorise a referendum. She'd be a party leader and PM despite not being able to command a majority for anything other than a confidence vote as long as the DUP decided to toy with her.
I think you just have to work out what is the absolute worst/messiest outcome for the country and assume that's what will happen.
May winning her VoNC by 1 vote and carrying on, I'd guess.
Yes - the effort it has taken to get to 48 suggests that May should win by a big enough margin to tough it out for now. If the ultras did succeed in taking over the party they would lose my vote - for the first time in over 40myears.
40 million years?! I know PB has some older commenters, but I didn't realise you were actually from the Eocene Period.
I really want May’s deal or something like it but if we don’t get it I will vote for no deal as many times as I can.
No times then.
A second referendum looks nailed on to me now.
And how's that going to happen? (I assume you don't mean that people are going round nailing referendums on to you, and that you've two so far).
Parliament will find a way. Over 500 of them were elected on the basis they would implement the previous vote but they are liars. There is a large majority for remain but even they would be too ashamed to reverse their position without a referendum to hide behind.
More to the point, with hindsight it is obvious that there should have been some majority or turnout threshold for the referendum before we make such a significant and dramatic change to our country's future. In the absence of such (and it is now too late), asking voters to confirm their intentions again before passing the point of no return is both reasonable and justifiable.
Turnout thresholds unfairly bias the system towards the status quo option as its supporters can improve their chances of winning by not turning up.
Which is the whole idea. If the requisite proportion of the voters can't be assed to turn out and vote for the change in question, it doesn't happen.
If Sir Graham Brady has scheduled an appointment with the PM for just after PMQs, if I was May, I would be tempted to stand up at noon and announce
"In addition to my duties in this house, I have had meetings with ministerial colleagues and others, and have withdrawn the Article 50 notification. This afternoon I shall have further such meetings."
And Jezza would still ask questions about Maureen's number 87 bus route in Margate getting rerouted because of the Christmas market...
Now that it is being reported Brady has asked to see May, will there be a flurry of new letters I wonder - so people can swear to the probable victors that they were indeed on side the whole time.
As little as a week ago it was being widely and confidently predicted that May would win a confidence vote.
What is the view now?
All joking aside, that BigG thinks May needs to go truly does seem significant in terms of guessing what unhappy Tory MPs might be thinking.
I am deeply troubled that she paused the vote to go almost begging round Europe as she is better than that. I am also very concerned she seems to want to placate ERG more than the other parts of the party including the remainers
It is clear ERG do not represent my opinion and are a real threat to our economy and cohesion. She is now in a position which is falling between both sides, rather than trying to reconcile both,
If she does lose a vnoc a unity candidate is needed and a change of the narrative to supporting the deal but seeking public approval. There is more than a chance that it could win but with TM in place the referendum is unlikely to be supported and TM is risking a hard brexit that I cannot accept
TM will need to go in the Spring at the latest but I think she stands more of a chance of losing a vnoc than she has to date.
I would prefer the MP's do not vnoc her just now as I do not want her locked in place for 12 more months
I still have enormous respect for her and she has done better than anyone else could have, but the party needs a new leader in the next 6 months. However, if against all odds she gets something from the EU that sees her deal go through, I will be the first to say she has achieved the impossible
Big_G, surely you are way too sensible and level headed to be still giving today's Tory party your support?
I am in the same position as many rank and file labour voters. However if Johnson gets near power my membership and my wife's membership cards will be torn up
So a minority government led by an ' unelected ' PM trying to take the country through a managed No Deal ? Good Luck with that. If you think that's thus situations equilibrium point then Good Luck.
This is a once in a lifetime chance for the ERG to deliver a hard as nails Brexit. As we saw the other day, the Government has considerable power in parliament over timetabling and so forth.
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
A No Deal is quite likely but highly unlikely to end there. The contradictions of Brexit can only be resolved through crisis. No Deal is a new form of denial.
Shedding light on the news that there would be a two year wait until season 12, the BBC’s entertainment correspondent Lizo Mzimba has said: 'Doctor Who has almost uniquely complex filming requirements and a lengthy post-production period.'
Given the speed movies get turned around and the way Netflix operates with a successful franchise putting out a new season every year, not sure that excuse washes.
She's really good, shame she got lumbered with such a shit series.
This is Jeremy’s dream come true. A totally Tory-owned no deal.
Unless No Deal turns out to be like Project Fear 1.0, and comparatively painless - which is perfectly possible (no one knows)
Let's say it's a few days of chaos, traffic jams, shortages, but then lots of small ad hoc deals are done, and things calm down. I can this happening quite easily: after all it is in no one's interest, not the EU's, or ours, or Ireland's, for trade chaos to continue. What then?
If a Tory No Deal proves to be RELATIVELY painless, then suddenly everything changes, completely.
How much disruption did Black Wednesday, which poisoned the Tories' economic credibility for a decade (despite arguably being medium term beneficial) bring about? Sky high interest rates for a few days only. Compare and contrast, as future essay questions will ask...
Not only that. We are heading for recession shortly anyway. It is long overdue as it is. It will be blamed on Brexit anyway.
1. Lay Corbyn for as much as possible. 2. Look to Con ministers capable of acting as consensus candidates in the context of delivering No Deal. Raab seems well placed. Boris not, Gove not, Hunt not, Hammond certainly not, Javid possibly, Davis (ugh) possibly.
Javid is slight favourite, I think. He's also the least unpopular (they are all notably unpopular).
Then he should make JRM Chancellor, to appease the ERG. I don't see how Hammond survives if TMay goes.
She doesn't. Personally, I'd make Gove chancellor. No-one likes him but then that fits the chancellor's job quite well.
1. Lay Corbyn for as much as possible. 2. Look to Con ministers capable of acting as consensus candidates in the context of delivering No Deal. Raab seems well placed. Boris not, Gove not, Hunt not, Hammond certainly not, Javid possibly, Davis (ugh) possibly.
How can they achieve a consensus to deliver no deal? Yes it is default outcome for no deal to happen, but there's enough Tories who will block any preparations which might require legislation or, at that point, break ranks on a no confidence vote no matter the cost, to prevent them having a majority still surely?
You are generally good at noting a poor outcome for the Tories, but is managing no deal really viable for them without them falling to pieces?
I never said this wouldn't be a bad outcome for the Tories.
I really want May’s deal or something like it but if we don’t get it I will vote for no deal as many times as I can.
No times then.
A second referendum looks nailed on to me now.
I hope you're right. If that resulted in a vote for No Deal at least we as a nation would know we had voted for the pain that follows.
It means the anti democrats have won. Be careful what you wish for.
Having a national vote means the anti-democrats have won!? Er, right...
We had a national vote. A minority refuse to accept it despite having been elected on that basis.
We're not going to agree on this one are we David. I respect your view but disagree.
FWIW I think a 2nd referendum would confirm a Deal Leave.
I now believe that whatever path we take it has to be legitimised by a referendum. Nothing will be settled otherwise
A referendum would only settle the situation if there were a vote for No Deal (and perhaps not even then, if Parliament can find the will and the means to overturn it.) Otherwise the battles will just rumble on and on.
The Scottish referendum settled nothing, after all.
Now that it is being reported Brady has asked to see May, will there be a flurry of new letters I wonder - so people can swear to the probable victors that they were indeed on side the whole time.
As little as a week ago it was being widely and confidently predicted that May would win a confidence vote.
What is the view now?
All joking aside, that BigG thinks May needs to go truly does seem significant in terms of guessing what unhappy Tory MPs might be thinking.
I am deeply troubled that she paused the vote to go almost begging round Europe as she is better than that. I am also very concerned she seems to want to placate ERG more than the other parts of the party including the remainers
It is clear ERG do not represent my opinion and are a real threat to our economy and cohesion. She is now in a position which is falling between both sides, rather than trying to reconcile both,
If she does lose a vnoc a unity candidate is needed and a change of the narrative to supporting the deal but seeking public approval. There is more than a chance that it could win but with TM in place the referendum is unlikely to be supported and TM is risking a hard brexit that I cannot accept
TM will need to go in the Spring at the latest but I think she stands more of a chance of losing a vnoc than she has to date.
I would prefer the MP's do not vnoc her just now as I do not want her locked in place for 12 more months
I still have enormous respect for her and she has done better than anyone else could have, but the party needs a new leader in the next 6 months. However, if against all odds she gets something from the EU that sees her deal go through, I will be the first to say she has achieved the impossible
Big_G, surely you are way too sensible and level headed to be still giving today's Tory party your support?
I am in the same position as many rank and file labour voters. However if Johnson gets near power my membership and my wife's membership cards will be torn up
Either the Con MPs crown a leader unopposed, which can only realistically be done by signing in blood against the three points of contention with the WA - Backstop, Irish Sea border, CJEU role - or there will be a contest in which a Hard Leaver will win. Neither way can produce a deal with the EU.
Could Labour take over and prevent that outcome? It's possible but I don't see why the DUP would forego their kingmaker position and install two IRA sympathisers in Downing St when their biggest beef with the government would have fallen by the wayside. Better from their point of view to keep the Tories in power and squeeze concessions vote by vote.
How about an A50 extension? I doubt a new Con leader could (never mind would) ask for one but on what basis? The red lines produce no overlap.
Chances of another referendum? I don't see it. With no deal on offer, a new government isn't going to offer No Deal vs Remain, and I don't see how the opposition force it - certainly not in three months.
No, we're going to crash out. Merry Christmas.
A No Deal is quite likely but highly unlikely to end there. The contradictions of Brexit can only be resolved through crisis. No Deal is a new form of denial.
There's no contradiction of 'Brexit'. The contradiction was our spell as part of the EU, which is mercifully coming to an end.
I really want May’s deal or something like it but if we don’t get it I will vote for no deal as many times as I can.
No times then.
A second referendum looks nailed on to me now.
And how's that going to happen? (I assume you don't mean that people are going round nailing referendums on to you, and that you've two so far).
Parliament will find a way. Over 500 of them were elected on the basis they would implement the previous vote but they are liars. There is a large majority for remain but even they would be too ashamed to reverse their position without a referendum to hide behind.
More to the point, with hindsight it is obvious that there should have been some majority or turnout threshold for the referendum before we make such a significant and dramatic change to our country's future. In the absence of such (and it is now too late), asking voters to confirm their intentions again before passing the point of no return is both reasonable and justifiable.
We had a turnout of over 33m. How many more did you want?
This is Jeremy’s dream come true. A totally Tory-owned no deal.
Unless No Deal turns out to be like Project Fear 1.0, and comparatively painless - which is perfectly possible (no one knows)
Let's say it's a few days of chaos, traffic jams, shortages, but then lots of small ad hoc deals are done, and things calm down. I can this happening quite easily: after all it is in no one's interest, not the EU's, or ours, or Ireland's, for trade chaos to continue. What then?
If a Tory No Deal proves to be RELATIVELY painless, then suddenly everything changes, completely.
Was it Lenin or Marx who said "No place is more than 3 meals away from revolution"? A few days may be too long...
1. Lay Corbyn for as much as possible. 2. Look to Con ministers capable of acting as consensus candidates in the context of delivering No Deal. Raab seems well placed. Boris not, Gove not, Hunt not, Hammond certainly not, Javid possibly, Davis (ugh) possibly.
How can they achieve a consensus to deliver no deal? Yes it is default outcome for no deal to happen, but there's enough Tories who will block any preparations which might require legislation or, at that point, break ranks on a no confidence vote no matter the cost, to prevent them having a majority still surely?
You are generally good at noting a poor outcome for the Tories, but is managing no deal really viable for them without them falling to pieces?
I never said this wouldn't be a bad outcome for the Tories.
That wasn't what I meant. I meant of the poor outcomes is managed no deal really viable? I dont see how they, er, manage it.
So assuming May loses the VONC and an ERG nut job takes over and Soubry and her fellow travellers quit the Tories, what are they going to call them new party?
If Sir Graham Brady has scheduled an appointment with the PM for just after PMQs, if I was May, I would be tempted to stand up at noon and announce
"In addition to my duties in this house, I have had meetings with ministerial colleagues and others, and have withdrawn the Article 50 notification. This afternoon I shall have further such meetings."
Obviously not going to happen, but it potentially leads to a schrodinger's brexit, where the EU would consider the UK a member, but UK domestic law defined by the eu withdrawal act would leave the UK out.
Now that it is being reported Brady has asked to see May, will there be a flurry of new letters I wonder - so people can swear to the probable victors that they were indeed on side the whole time.
As little as a week ago it was being widely and confidently predicted that May would win a confidence vote.
What is the view now?
All joking aside, that BigG thinks May needs to go truly does seem significant in terms of guessing what unhappy Tory MPs might be thinking.
I am deeply troubled that she paused the vote to go almost begging round Europe as she is better than that. I am also very concerned she seems to want to placate ERG more than the other parts of the party including the remainers
It is clear ERG do not represent my opinion and are a real threat to our economy and cohesion. She is now in a position which is falling between both sides, rather than trying to reconcile both,
If she does lose a vnoc a unity candidate is needed and a change of the narrative to supporting the deal but seeking public approval. There is more than a chance that it could win but with TM in place the referendum is unlikely to be supported and TM is risking a hard brexit that I cannot accept
TM will need to go in the Spring at the latest but I think she stands more of a chance of losing a vnoc than she has to date.
I would prefer the MP's do not vnoc her just now as I do not want her locked in place for 12 more months
I still have enormous respect for her and she has done better than anyone else could have, but the party needs a new leader in the next 6 months. However, if against all odds she gets something from the EU that sees her deal go through, I will be the first to say she has achieved the impossible
Big_G, surely you are way too sensible and level headed to be still giving today's Tory party your support?
I am in the same position as many rank and file labour voters. However if Johnson gets near power my membership and my wife's membership cards will be torn up
This is Jeremy’s dream come true. A totally Tory-owned no deal.
Unless No Deal turns out to be like Project Fear 1.0, and comparatively painless - which is perfectly possible (no one knows)
Let's say it's a few days of chaos, traffic jams, shortages, but then lots of small ad hoc deals are done, and things calm down. I can this happening quite easily: after all it is in no one's interest, not the EU's, or ours, or Ireland's, for trade chaos to continue. What then?
If a Tory No Deal proves to be RELATIVELY painless, then suddenly everything changes, completely.
Was it Lenin or Marx who said "No place is more than 3 meals away from revolution"? A few days may be too long...
So assuming May loses the VONC and an ERG nut job takes over and Soubry and her fellow travellers quit the Tories, what are they going to call them new party?
I really want May’s deal or something like it but if we don’t get it I will vote for no deal as many times as I can.
No times then.
A second referendum looks nailed on to me now.
And how's that going to happen? (I assume you don't mean that people are going round nailing referendums on to you, and that you've two so far).
Parliament will find a way. Over 500 of them were elected on the basis they would implement the previous vote but they are liars. There is a large majority for remain but even they would be too ashamed to reverse their position without a referendum to hide behind.
More to the point, with hindsight it is obvious that there should have been some majority or turnout threshold for the referendum before we make such a significant and dramatic change to our country's future. In the absence of such (and it is now too late), asking voters to confirm their intentions again before passing the point of no return is both reasonable and justifiable.
We had a turnout of over 33m. How many more did you want?
Notably as it's 'not a big change' as suggested previously, this threshold would conveniently not be needed in a vote now to remain. Convenient.
I actually think thresholds are not terrible ideas, but we legally said it was ok before, it's not fair or reasonable to use the lack if them as justification for a rerun. That people have changed their mind is stronger than that.
So assuming May loses the VONC and an ERG nut job takes over and Soubry and her fellow travellers quit the Tories, what are they going to call them new party?
I think, before a Tory confidence vote, TM needs to be very specific and unequivocal about the date of a vote on her deal (next week latest). Only thing that might save her. Why she didn't do this yesterday or just stuck to the vote, only she knows....
This is Jeremy’s dream come true. A totally Tory-owned no deal.
Unless No Deal turns out to be like Project Fear 1.0, and comparatively painless - which is perfectly possible (no one knows)
Let's say it's a few days of chaos, traffic jams, shortages, but then lots of small ad hoc deals are done, and things calm down. I can this happening quite easily: after all it is in no one's interest, not the EU's, or ours, or Ireland's, for trade chaos to continue. What then?
If a Tory No Deal proves to be RELATIVELY painless, then suddenly everything changes, completely.
Was it Lenin or Marx who said "No place is more than 3 meals away from revolution"? A few days may be too long...
This is getting silly.
Just how ‘silly’ was your claim that Jo Cox’s murder was a false flag? Rate your own ‘silliness’ from 1-10.
I really want May’s deal or something like it but if we don’t get it I will vote for no deal as many times as I can.
No times then.
A second referendum looks nailed on to me now.
And how's that going to happen? (I assume you don't mean that people are going round nailing referendums on to you, and that you've two so far).
Parliament will find a way. Over 500 of them were elected on the basis they would implement the previous vote but they are liars. There is a large majority for remain but even they would be too ashamed to reverse their position without a referendum to hide behind.
More to the point, with hindsight it is obvious that there should have been some majority or turnout threshold for the referendum before we make such a significant and dramatic change to our country's future. In the absence of such (and it is now too late), asking voters to confirm their intentions again before passing the point of no return is both reasonable and justifiable.
Turnout thresholds unfairly bias the system towards the status quo option as its supporters can improve their chances of winning by not turning up.
Which is the whole idea. If the requisite proportion of the voters can't be assed to turn out and vote for the change in question, it doesn't happen.
If the turnout threshold is 65% and a proposition has 60% support then opponents can win by not turning up. No thanks.
You wouldn’t want to be a Tory MP tonight. A VONC seems a lose-lose situation to me. May stays and the Brexit limbo continues. Or you roll the dice and get alternatively a) a remainer and second referendum, and more chaos b) a hardline brexiteer who announces no deal and ultra chaos or c) a moderate and read above re Brexit limbo. I have no idea WTH is going on anymore.
A no-deal Brexit could, briefly, be a kind of helpful cleansing by fire. The modern tory party would be broken and replaced by something less antediluvian, and some of the post-imperial delusions that are still evident, from time to time, on this site, would also disappear.
However, the uninvited consequences for most people would be too great.
I think, before a Tory confidence vote, TM needs to be very specific and unequivocal about the date of a vote on her deal (next week latest). Only thing that might save her. Why she didn't do this yesterday or just stuck to the vote, only she knows....
Can’t help feeling that the pressure is getting to her. Hardly surprising but the last 48 hours have not her best.
IF there is a Con internal VONC, surely that's the time Corbyn calls a parly VONC? Then there are at least 48 Con MPs who don't support the PM. How can they say they support the Govt but not the PM?
? Eh ? Is this the mad delusion that is sweeping Twitter ?
NONE of the 48 letters in will VONC the Government. It's such a different act I can't even begin to describe how different it is.
Yes, yes, I know they are two different and independent things. I'm simply saying that Corbyn's best chance of a successful vonc in the Government under the FTPA surely comes at the time 48+ Conservatives are expressly and visibly not behind the PM. Surely that's the time a Con or DUP MP or two is most likely to abstain (I too doubt they'd flip).
This is Jeremy’s dream come true. A totally Tory-owned no deal.
Unless No Deal turns out to be like Project Fear 1.0, and comparatively painless - which is perfectly possible (no one knows)
Let's say it's a few days of chaos, traffic jams, shortages, but then lots of small ad hoc deals are done, and things calm down. I can this happening quite easily: after all it is in no one's interest, not the EU's, or ours, or Ireland's, for trade chaos to continue. What then?
If a Tory No Deal proves to be RELATIVELY painless, then suddenly everything changes, completely.
Was it Lenin or Marx who said "No place is more than 3 meals away from revolution"? A few days may be too long...
This is getting silly.
Events can run away with themselves. I hope you're right, that a no-deal Brexit won't be actually catastrophic, but I'm 3,500 miles away.
If Sir Graham Brady has scheduled an appointment with the PM for just after PMQs, if I was May, I would be tempted to stand up at noon and announce
"In addition to my duties in this house, I have had meetings with ministerial colleagues and others, and have withdrawn the Article 50 notification. This afternoon I shall have further such meetings."
Obviously not going to happen, but it potentially leads to a schrodinger's brexit, where the EU would consider the UK a member, but UK domestic law defined by the eu withdrawal act would leave the UK out.
Keeps everyone happy :-)
That would probably fail the 'constitutional process' test.
I think, before a Tory confidence vote, TM needs to be very specific and unequivocal about the date of a vote on her deal (next week latest). Only thing that might save her. Why she didn't do this yesterday or just stuck to the vote, only she knows....
Can’t help feeling that the pressure is getting to her. Hardly surprising but the last 48 hours have not her best.
It may be that she decides not to contest the VONC. Does she really want the poisoned chalice for another 12 months?
IF there is a Con internal VONC, surely that's the time Corbyn calls a parly VONC? Then there are at least 48 Con MPs who don't support the PM. How can they say they support the Govt but not the PM?
? Eh ? Is this the mad delusion that is sweeping Twitter ?
NONE of the 48 letters in will VONC the Government. It's such a different act I can't even begin to describe how different it is.
Yes, yes, I know they are two different and independent things. I'm simply saying that Corbyn's best chance of a successful vonc in the Government under the FTPA surely comes at the time 48+ Conservatives are expressly and visibly not behind the PM. Surely that's the time a Con or DUP MP or two is most likely to abstain (I too doubt they'd flip).
Instant deselection for any conservative doing that.
Does the House of Commons website know something we do not? In its page to filter MPs by party it has options for Conservative, Labour,Liberal Democrat, DUP, Sinn Fein, Speaker, Independent, Plaid Cymru, Green Party, SNP...and for the Social Democrat Party and Liberal Party. No one listed there...yet.
I think, before a Tory confidence vote, TM needs to be very specific and unequivocal about the date of a vote on her deal (next week latest). Only thing that might save her. Why she didn't do this yesterday or just stuck to the vote, only she knows....
Can’t help feeling that the pressure is getting to her. Hardly surprising but the last 48 hours have not her best.
It may be that she decides not to contest the VONC. Does she really want the poisoned chalice for another 12 months?
And we have just dramatically seen that she likes to run away from a fight.
I think, before a Tory confidence vote, TM needs to be very specific and unequivocal about the date of a vote on her deal (next week latest). Only thing that might save her. Why she didn't do this yesterday or just stuck to the vote, only she knows....
Can’t help feeling that the pressure is getting to her. Hardly surprising but the last 48 hours have not her best.
It may be that she decides not to contest the VONC. Does she really want the poisoned chalice for another 12 months?
My advice would be to accept it and act as PM while her successor is appointed
I really want May’s deal or something like it but if we don’t get it I will vote for no deal as many times as I can.
No times then.
A second referendum looks nailed on to me now.
I hope you're right. If that resulted in a vote for No Deal at least we as a nation would know we had voted for the pain that follows.
It means the anti democrats have won. Be careful what you wish for.
Having a national vote means the anti-democrats have won!? Er, right...
We had a national vote. A minority refuse to accept it despite having been elected on that basis.
We're not going to agree on this one are we David. I respect your view but disagree.
FWIW I think a 2nd referendum would confirm a Deal Leave.
I now believe that whatever path we take it has to be legitimised by a referendum. Nothing will be settled otherwise
A referendum would only settle the situation if there were a vote for No Deal (and perhaps not even then, if Parliament can find the will and the means to overturn it.) Otherwise the battles will just rumble on and on.
The Scottish referendum settled nothing, after all.
Maybe settling things was being a bit optimistic!. Ironically I think Mrs May's deal comes closest to fulfilling the 2016 mandate. No deal or remain would need to be supported in a referendum if they are going to have any real legitimacy.
This is Jeremy’s dream come true. A totally Tory-owned no deal.
Unless No Deal turns out to be like Project Fear 1.0, and comparatively painless - which is perfectly possible (no one knows)
Let's say it's a few days of chaos, traffic jams, shortages, but then lots of small ad hoc deals are done, and things calm down. I can this happening quite easily: after all it is in no one's interest, not the EU's, or ours, or Ireland's, for trade chaos to continue. What then?
If a Tory No Deal proves to be RELATIVELY painless, then suddenly everything changes, completely.
Was it Lenin or Marx who said "No place is more than 3 meals away from revolution"? A few days may be too long...
This is getting silly.
No. What is getting silly is people like you and apparently the Tory party not understanding that businesses have planned on the basis that there would be a transition agreement. If there isn't one, we don't revert to some nirvana where everything works perfectly. We revert to, well, what? Who knows? Uncertainties, delays, trying to cobble together mini-agreements at the last minute in the worst possible circumstances, all the factors which will make economic difficulties worse and which will likely to persuade businesses that it may no longer be worth the effort remaining in Britain. No access to EU markets on the same basis as now. Economic uncertainty. Delays. Extra costs. The likelihood of a Corbyn government. Political and economic risk, in short.
Meanwhile other countries in the EU will be falling over themselves to offer a home to such businesses and their staff.
Stability. Certainty. The rule of law. Sensible, pragmatic governments. Governments you could generally trust. A country open for business and welcoming to those who want to do well. Britain's offering to the world. All seriously trashed or damaged by idiots - and for what? Because they didn't like their leader or the fact that their former colony did not do what it was told by Britain or because they were too bloody thick to understand the difference between a transition agreement and a final deal or the necessity for a guarantee.
This is Jeremy’s dream come true. A totally Tory-owned no deal.
Unless No Deal turns out to be like Project Fear 1.0, and comparatively painless - which is perfectly possible (no one knows)
Let's say it's a few days of chaos, traffic jams, shortages, but then lots of small ad hoc deals are done, and things calm down. I can this happening quite easily: after all it is in no one's interest, not the EU's, or ours, or Ireland's, for trade chaos to continue. What then?
If a Tory No Deal proves to be RELATIVELY painless, then suddenly everything changes, completely.
Was it Lenin or Marx who said "No place is more than 3 meals away from revolution"? A few days may be too long...
This is getting silly.
Just how ‘silly’ was your claim that Jo Cox’s murder was a false flag? Rate your own ‘silliness’ from 1-10.
Naturally I don't believe that suggestion (based on an eye witness account), to have been a silly one, or I wouldn't have entertained it. Conspiracy theories have gained immense popularity on PB since I started posting; almost everyone's a convert, they just have to have been committed by people we don't like.
A no-deal Brexit could, briefly, be a kind of helpful cleansing by fire. The modern tory party would be broken and replaced by something less antediluvian, and some of the post-imperial delusions that are still evident, from time to time, on this site, would also disappear.
However, the uninvited consequences for most people would be too great.
I think, before a Tory confidence vote, TM needs to be very specific and unequivocal about the date of a vote on her deal (next week latest). Only thing that might save her. Why she didn't do this yesterday or just stuck to the vote, only she knows....
Can’t help feeling that the pressure is getting to her. Hardly surprising but the last 48 hours have not her best.
It may be that she decides not to contest the VONC. Does she really want the poisoned chalice for another 12 months?
My advice would be to accept it and act as PM while her successor is appointed
I think it’s worth thinking about how many votes against her would cause her to say enough. She is already well short of a majority for her deal. If even 100 say that they have lost confidence I think she will go.
A no-deal Brexit could, briefly, be a kind of helpful cleansing by fire. The modern tory party would be broken and replaced by something less antediluvian, and some of the post-imperial delusions that are still evident, from time to time, on this site, would also disappear.
However, the uninvited consequences for most people would be too great.
I really want May’s deal or something like it but if we don’t get it I will vote for no deal as many times as I can.
No times then.
A second referendum looks nailed on to me now.
And how's that going to happen? (I assume you don't mean that people are going round nailing referendums on to you, and that you've two so far).
Parliament will find a way. Over 500 of them were elected on the basis they would implement the previous vote but they are liars. There is a large majority for remain but even they would be too ashamed to reverse their position without a referendum to hide behind.
More to the point, with hindsight it is obvious that there should have been some majority or turnout threshold for the referendum before we make such a significant and dramatic change to our country's future. In the absence of such (and it is now too late), asking voters to confirm their intentions again before passing the point of no return is both reasonable and justifiable.
We had a turnout of over 33m. How many more did you want?
At least half of the electorate voting for a radical change would have been an obvious one.
This is Jeremy’s dream come true. A totally Tory-owned no deal.
Unless No Deal turns out to be like Project Fear 1.0, and comparatively painless - which is perfectly possible (no one knows)
Let's say it's a few days of chaos, traffic jams, shortages, but then lots of small ad hoc deals are done, and things calm down. I can this happening quite easily: after all it is in no one's interest, not the EU's, or ours, or Ireland's, for trade chaos to continue. What then?
If a Tory No Deal proves to be RELATIVELY painless, then suddenly everything changes, completely.
Was it Lenin or Marx who said "No place is more than 3 meals away from revolution"? A few days may be too long...
Alfred Lewis said nine meals from anarchy. That was in 1906. Three meals from revolution has been attributed to Alexandre Dumas before him and Leon Trotsky after him, although I've not see chapter and verse for either.
Research has been done on the social and political effects of famine. As body weight falls, combativeness and sociality first rise and then they fall drastically and even natural ties between parents and children weaken. Many stop caring. Of course the evil scum of society have a heyday, such as those who demanded art treasures for food in Leningrad.
People in Britain have no idea about famine whatsoever. Russia, yes. Ukraine, the Netherlands, Greece, yes. In Britain the xenophobic archetype of the Bogeyman Other is far stronger than the archetype of the empty belly. If there's another referendum, Leave will win. It will be interesting to find out whether Dominic Cummings (about whom I concur with David Cameron's assessment) updates his prediction that Leave will break 60%.
This is Jeremy’s dream come true. A totally Tory-owned no deal.
Unless No Deal turns out to be like Project Fear 1.0, and comparatively painless - which is perfectly possible (no one knows)
Let's say it's a few days of chaos, traffic jams, shortages, but then lots of small ad hoc deals are done, and things calm down. I can this happening quite easily: after all it is in no one's interest, not the EU's, or ours, or Ireland's, for trade chaos to continue. What then?
If a Tory No Deal proves to be RELATIVELY painless, then suddenly everything changes, completely.
Was it Lenin or Marx who said "No place is more than 3 meals away from revolution"? A few days may be too long...
This is getting silly.
No. What is getting silly is people like you and apparently the Tory party not understanding that businesses have planned on the basis that there would be a transition agreement. If there isn't one, we don't revert to some nirvana where everything works perfectly. We revert to, well, what? Who knows? Uncertainties, delays, trying to cobble together mini-agreements at the last minute in the worst possible circumstances, all the factors which will make economic difficulties worse and which will likely to persuade businesses that it may no longer be worth the effort remaining in Britain. No access to EU markets on the same basis as now. Economic uncertainty. Delays. Extra costs. The likelihood of a Corbyn government. Political and economic risk, in short.
Meanwhile other countries in the EU will be falling over themselves to offer a home to such businesses and their staff.
Stability. Certainty. The rule of law. Sensible, pragmatic governments. Governments you could generally trust. A country open for business and welcoming to those who want to do well. Britain's offering to the world. All seriously trashed or damaged by idiots - and for what? Because they didn't like their leader or the fact that their former colony did not do what it was told by Britain or because they were too bloody thick to understand the difference between a transition agreement and a final deal or the necessity for a guarantee.
It is utterly unbelievable that 3 months away from Brexit the Tory Party (or at least a sizeable chunk of the parliamentary party) thinks it’d be a good idea to have a protracted leadership election.
This is Jeremy’s dream come true. A totally Tory-owned no deal.
Unless No Deal turns out to be like Project Fear 1.0, and comparatively painless - which is perfectly possible (no one knows)
Let's say it's a few days of chaos, traffic jams, shortages, but then lots of small ad hoc deals are done, and things calm down. I can this happening quite easily: after all it is in no one's interest, not the EU's, or ours, or Ireland's, for trade chaos to continue. What then?
If a Tory No Deal proves to be RELATIVELY painless, then suddenly everything changes, completely.
Was it Lenin or Marx who said "No place is more than 3 meals away from revolution"? A few days may be too long...
This is getting silly.
Just how ‘silly’ was your claim that Jo Cox’s murder was a false flag? Rate your own ‘silliness’ from 1-10.
Naturally I don't believe that suggestion (based on an eye witness account), to have been a silly one, or I wouldn't have entertained it. Conspiracy theories have gained immense popularity on PB since I started posting; almost everyone's a convert, they just have to have been committed by people we don't like.
Comments
The Opposition, assuming all the Independents line up with them, and excluding Sinn Fein and Mr Speaker, total 318 seats.
I'm assuming the Speaker would have to back the sitting Government in the event of a tie, so the threshold for a successful vote of confidence is five defections.
Wollaston and Allen have previously been suggested as potential switchers, because they're Europhile and would be in with a fighting chance of holding their seats as Lib Dems. Three more anybody?
Heidi Allen for PM.
It is clear ERG do not represent my opinion and are a real threat to our economy and cohesion. She is now in a position which is falling between both sides, rather than trying to reconcile both,
If she does lose a vnoc a unity candidate is needed and a change of the narrative to supporting the deal but seeking public approval. There is more than a chance that it could win but with TM in place the referendum is unlikely to be supported and TM is risking a hard brexit that I cannot accept
TM will need to go in the Spring at the latest but I think she stands more of a chance of losing a vnoc than she has to date.
I would prefer the MP's do not vnoc her just now as I do not want her locked in place for 12 more months
I still have enormous respect for her and she has done better than anyone else could have, but the party needs a new leader in the next 6 months. However, if against all odds she gets something from the EU that sees her deal go through, I will be the first to say she has achieved the impossible
However, I can see issues / disruptions / changes to the way big businesses operate, which cause price rises and it is easy for Jezza to blame that on the Tories (and chuck in absolutely anything else that is a problem in the country).
- Tariffs on trade with Europe
- No infrastructure to manage those tariffs
...would undoubtably be chaotic.
I agree (for this evening anyway) with David H, that the likeliest outcome is No Deal.
A change of Conservative leadership won't change the fundamentals. Either there's a big cross-party effort to halt No Deal, or it happens.
Under several different names.
"In addition to my duties in this house, I have had meetings with ministerial colleagues and others, and have withdrawn the Article 50 notification. This afternoon I shall have further such meetings."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-6484125/Doctor-season-12-Reason-Jodie-Whittaker-wont-return-2020-REVEALED-BBC.html
Given the speed movies get turned around and the way Netflix operates with a successful franchise putting out a new season every year, not sure that excuse washes.
Several months of half-empty supermarket shelves and sharply rising unemployment would be one thing. A fortnights' shortage of lettuce and cut flowers, on the other hand, would soon be forgotten.
"Tommorow !"
The Scottish referendum settled nothing, after all.
Keeps everyone happy :-)
But there should be a market on it.
I actually think thresholds are not terrible ideas, but we legally said it was ok before, it's not fair or reasonable to use the lack if them as justification for a rerun. That people have changed their mind is stronger than that.
However, the uninvited consequences for most people would be too great.
After many twists and turned, ultimately a deadlock was unavoidable.
https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/?sort=3&type=16
Meanwhile other countries in the EU will be falling over themselves to offer a home to such businesses and their staff.
Stability. Certainty. The rule of law. Sensible, pragmatic governments. Governments you could generally trust. A country open for business and welcoming to those who want to do well. Britain's offering to the world. All seriously trashed or damaged by idiots - and for what? Because they didn't like their leader or the fact that their former colony did not do what it was told by Britain or because they were too bloody thick to understand the difference between a transition agreement and a final deal or the necessity for a guarantee.
A scouser at Anfield? Is she lost?
Research has been done on the social and political effects of famine. As body weight falls, combativeness and sociality first rise and then they fall drastically and even natural ties between parents and children weaken. Many stop caring. Of course the evil scum of society have a heyday, such as those who demanded art treasures for food in Leningrad.
People in Britain have no idea about famine whatsoever. Russia, yes. Ukraine, the Netherlands, Greece, yes. In Britain the xenophobic archetype of the Bogeyman Other is far stronger than the archetype of the empty belly. If there's another referendum, Leave will win. It will be interesting to find out whether Dominic Cummings (about whom I concur with David Cameron's assessment) updates his prediction that Leave will break 60%.
Reality makes it a stupidly painful thing to do
Ye gods, they have totally lost the plot.