politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Jezza should beware of Nicola bearing gifts
Comments
-
I'm not a lawyer. As a lay person the silence of A50 on revocability gives them significant lea way and Ian"t there a nod to Common Law in ruling it's allowed unless expressly forbidden ? It's also hardly an integrationist judgement in given the spectrum of saying A50 is unilaterally revocable by one member state to being highly conditionally revocable by 28 member states it opts comprehensively for national sovereignty. Perhaps they are trolling Brexiters one last time ?DavidL said:
Even by the standards of the CJEU the decision is the most awful tosh.YellowSubmarine said:If you've not read the full CJEU judgement it's here. It's very accessible to the lay person and you can even just scroll down to the ruling which us basically a single paragraph. It's fairly emphatic.
http://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/document.jsf?text=&docid=208636&pageIndex=0&doclang=EN&mode=req&dir=&occ=first&part=1&cid=1252807
On the admissibility point they completely ignore the fact that however Joanna Cherry MP and others vote in the MV that can never result in the revocation of the Article 50 notice which would require separate primary legislation which the government does not intend to introduce.
On the substance point they insist that the EU is a new and different form of legal system to be interpreted by its own rules and then apply the Vienna Convention which is designed for an entirely different scenario, namely negotiations between States who are not bound by such an overarching legal system.
As they in part acknowledge one can only reach such a conclusion by recognising that. "citizenship of the Union is intended to be the fundamental status of nationals of the Member States" which should not be taken away from them if at all possible so the Court is willing to bend their interpretation of the provisions to the conclusion that gives the best prospect of that not happening. The question of why it could ever have been intended that a MS had a unilateral right to withdraw a notice but needed the unanimous consent of the other parties to extend the notice period is just ignored.
It is a political decision by a political court which has overriding objectives independent of the issues raised by the parties actually before it. Its a very different sort of law. Not inherently inferior but different. It is also a good demonstration of how the Court has been a driving force towards ever closer union and would have remained so whether Cameron's opt out of that was in force or not.0 -
Surely it's already too late to have a referendum without extending the Brexit timetable?SouthamObserver said:Very hard to argue against this:
https://twitter.com/polprofsteve/status/1072400219579523078?s=210 -
It is unlikely that Corbin will win the next general election outright but he could still become PM with SNP confidence and supply so if either the SNP or Labour win a Scottish seat it does not help the Tories stay in power. Sturgeon knows though that if she holds the keys to number 10 for Corbyn she can extract a price, likely permanent Customs Union and Single Market for the UK or EUref2.0
-
Indeed. Many of us recall the days of Ed Miliband the Stalinist. I sometimes wish it was easier to remind the PB Tories of their posts on PB.Jonathan said:
Tories always say the current Labour leader is the most horrifying ever. If Labour had a different leader we would be in exactly the same place.Donny43 said:
If Labour had a less horrifying leader we wouldn't be here, because they would have got some scrutiny in the election leading to them either winning or losing decisively.OldKingCole said:Thinking about it, and remembering the last almost similar crisis, Suez, the big difference seems to be me that, as I recall, Hugh Gaitskell, then Labour leader, wasn't the hate figure among the Tories that Corbyn seems to be. Aneurin Bevan was, almost, but he wan't Leader. In other words, IF Labour had a Leader with a less 'horrifying' to the Tories, back story, we'd have a better chance of getting out of the mess.
0 -
Boris Johnson is approaching ...DavidL said:
For me Wilson was clever and capable, eminently suitable for being PM. Foot was clever but incapable, not suitable for PM. Kinnock was not clever or capable but fundamentally decent, not suitable for PM. Blair was clever but fundamentally dishonest, a disappointment but capable of being PM. Brown was clever but borderline mad, incapable of being PM. Miliband was clever but incapable (see his time in Environment) and would probably not have been a good PM. Corbyn is stupid and incapable. By far the worst option in my lifetime.OldKingCole said:
Yup, don't think Brown was 'hated' either. There was considerable personal dislike as a result of his attitude. In many ways Brown was similar to Cameron; thought they'd be good as PM but once iin post couldn't hack it.DavidL said:
I think the leader after Blair was technically Brown but I can see where you are coming from.OldKingCole said:
They're a lot more vicious about Corbyn that about some other Labour leaders as I recall. Wilson was disliked, but to some extent that was a class thing; Wilson had a Northern accent. Callaghan didn't get the same treatment, nor, of course did Smith. Foot got similar treatment to Corbyn, but was feared in the House as a debater. Kinnock was mocked as a windbag, but he wasn't hated. Blair didn't get the 'hate' treatment,apart from 'demon eyes' until after he'd left office. Mandelson was treated like Kinniock.Jonathan said:
My point is that Tories always say and think this regardless of who is Labour leader.CD13 said:Mr Jonathan,
"If Labour had a different leader we would be in exactly the same place."
I'm not a Tory, but most Labour contenders would be better than 'oL bonehead. Liz Kendall for starters.
0 -
It strikes me that from a PR point of view, it's always best to be the second cancellation/failure/problem/scandal within any given class. The level of exposure and media attention is far, far less....YellowSubmarine said:After the collapse of Moorside Wylfa might be in trouble. It's amazing how many if these economic stories that would normally get traction are just drowned out at the moment. Interserve is another example.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/10/uk-nuclear-plant-hitachi-wylfa-anglesey0 -
I suspect that among Blair's major mistakes was not quitting while he was ahead, or keeping o the agreement he's alleged to have made. As a result, by the time Brown made it to No 10 he'd been driven, as Mr L says, borderline mad.CD13 said:Mr L,
"For me Wilson was clever and capable, eminently suitable for being PM. Foot was clever but incapable, not suitable for PM. Kinnock was not clever or capable but fundamentally decent, not suitable for PM. Blair was clever but fundamentally dishonest, a disappointment but capable of being PM. Brown was clever but borderline mad, incapable of being PM. Miliband was clever but incapable (see his time in Environment) and would probably not have been a good PM. Corbyn is stupid and incapable. By far the worst option in my lifetime."
Bravo. You might be totally wrong, but so am I then. That's exactly my opinion. I voted for all of them but Brown, By the late nineties, I'd defected to Charlie K. Brown was certainly made barmy by the promotion. Kinnock stood up to Militant, Foot - well meaning, and Harold too clever for his own good possibly.0 -
In these Brexit-obsessed times, it's good to look at something else. So here's a question that might be worth a threader from one of our esteemed writers:OldKingCole said:Well, I'm sure that with a Smith or even a pre-Iraq Blair in charge Labour would be making a lot more headway.
Dare I say it, but with a Jeremy Thorpe o a Kennedy leading the third party as well the Tories would have completely collapsed by now.
What's the matter with the Lib Dems?
They should be making hay with both main parties hopelessly split, and led by (on one side) an anti-Semite, and on the other a woman who is faced with an impossible task, and is doing it poorly. The Lib Dems should be polling 20%, and yet they are nowhere.
There are probably many factors: the after-effects of the coalition (which perversely now feels like a glorious period of sane government), a very poor leader, few MPs, no stellar talent, and little media attention. They also seem to lack a coherent message. I cannot say how the activist base is feeling, but they can't be filled with joy.
Have I missed anything?
And that leads to a second series of questions: how can the Lib Dems be fixed, and who could do it? Because they're missing their best chance since the Iraq War to actually become a contender.0 -
Nowt so queer as folk. Did she give you any particular as to why she felt McDonnellwas anything other than a disaster waiting to happen.Foxy said:
Mrs Foxy isn't consumed by Brexit, she is more a Strictly and Apprentice fan, but she was saying very approving things about McDonnell the other night. She finds him rather charming. She is no Corbyn fan, blaming his lame and half-hearted Brexit campaigning for the mess we are in now.AmpfieldAndy said:
That’s true about the Tories. They do go on monotonously and almost exclusively about how awful the current Labour leader is, no matter who that leader is. That said, it doesn’t mean it’s not true because in Corbyn’s case, partly because of who Corbyn is and partly because of McDonnell,I think it is true. Anyone reading Labour’s last manifesto would realise that Labour would destroy the economy.Jonathan said:
Tories always say the current Labour leader is the most horrifying ever. If Labour had a different leader we would be in exactly the same place.Donny43 said:
If Labour had a less horrifying leader we wouldn't be here, because they would have got some scrutiny in the election leading to them either winning or losing decisively.OldKingCole said:Thinking about it, and remembering the last almost similar crisis, Suez, the big difference seems to be me that, as I recall, Hugh Gaitskell, then Labour leader, wasn't the hate figure among the Tories that Corbyn seems to be. Aneurin Bevan was, almost, but he wan't Leader. In other words, IF Labour had a Leader with a less 'horrifying' to the Tories, back story, we'd have a better chance of getting out of the mess.
0 -
Charles said:
@Anazina FPT
Re:violence
Where we differ is conflation
I see a nutter on a Brexit March threatening violence and think it’s a nutter
You see a nutter on a Brexit March threatening violence and think it represents the position of a meaningful proportion of Brexiteers
Nope. Not so. That’s purely your projection.
You said no Brexit supporters had threatened violence. With literally one second’s worth of internet research, I proved you completely wrong.
Really, that is it.0 -
If May goes down she likely takes all the Cabinet Deal backers with her and the membership will almost certainly back whichever No Deal candidate of Davis, Boris, Raab or McVey ends in the final twoMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, not sure about that.
Boris is near certain to run, but he's very divisive. Davis may sit it out (he's knocking on a bit). McVey is likely to run, not sure about Raab.
There's also the likes of Hunt, Javid, Mordaunt to consider.0 -
If it wasn't for the collapsing pound the crumbling stock market and the national humiliation the vox pops on radio would make an interesting study....
'If a no deal is better than a bad deal lets go for a no deal because we've already got a bad deal'
.....and you know that the person offering this opinion hasn't the faintest idea what it means other than that it sounds clever.
.....Which just goes to show the selling potential of a well turned soundbite.0 -
Not being bothered by it either way strikes me as very irresponsible of him.Foxy said:
Corbyn simply is not that bothered by Brexit either way. If parliament was debating Palestinian seccession rather than UK he would be much more interested.Roger said:
Corbyn looks like he's throwing away the opportunity of a lifetime. At a tiime when the country is looking for leadership he offers nothing other than saying he is going to look at universal credit.SouthamObserver said:Corbyn and his advisers want a No Deal Brexit delivered by the Tories. They’ll do nothing to prevent it happening. I suspect Sturgeon understands this and will deploy it effectively come the next elections.
0 -
I have warmed to John McD. He is very good on the telly and is an excellent communicator. I can see why he is popular with female voters.Foxy said:
Mrs Foxy isn't consumed by Brexit, she is more a Strictly and Apprentice fan, but she was saying very approving things about McDonnell the other night. She finds him rather charming. She is no Corbyn fan, blaming his lame and half-hearted Brexit campaigning for the mess we are in now.AmpfieldAndy said:
That’s true about the Tories. They do go on monotonously and almost exclusively about how awful the current Labour leader is, no matter who that leader is. That said, it doesn’t mean it’s not true because in Corbyn’s case, partly because of who Corbyn is and partly because of McDonnell,I think it is true. Anyone reading Labour’s last manifesto would realise that Labour would destroy the economy.Jonathan said:
Tories always say the current Labour leader is the most horrifying ever. If Labour had a different leader we would be in exactly the same place.Donny43 said:
If Labour had a less horrifying leader we wouldn't be here, because they would have got some scrutiny in the election leading to them either winning or losing decisively.OldKingCole said:Thinking about it, and remembering the last almost similar crisis, Suez, the big difference seems to be me that, as I recall, Hugh Gaitskell, then Labour leader, wasn't the hate figure among the Tories that Corbyn seems to be. Aneurin Bevan was, almost, but he wan't Leader. In other words, IF Labour had a Leader with a less 'horrifying' to the Tories, back story, we'd have a better chance of getting out of the mess.
0 -
According to Yougov last weekend all of them (bar McVey who was not polled) poll better than Hunt and Gove with the public albeit Javid polls best with the public of allSouthamObserver said:
Any of them would be a gift to Labour.AlastairMeeks said:Useful for betting purposes:
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/10723950697124904960 -
I'm not at all sure that's right. The first electorate, the MPs, are going to give a lot of credit to those who showed loyalty and who tried against the odds to make the Prime Minister's plan work, especially if it would have been easier for them to duck out.HYUFD said:
If May goes down she likely takes all the Cabinet Deal backers with herMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, not sure about that.
Boris is near certain to run, but he's very divisive. Davis may sit it out (he's knocking on a bit). McVey is likely to run, not sure about Raab.
There's also the likes of Hunt, Javid, Mordaunt to consider.0 -
I disagree. They'll be an anti-ERG/stop Boris candidate for sure. If the 'No-dealers' win then I expect a fair number of remainish Tories will split away. I think some people have already declared they would if Boris won.HYUFD said:
If May goes down she likely takes all the Cabinet Deal backers with her and the membership will almost certainly back whichever No Deal candidate of Davis, Boris, Raab or McVey ends in the final twoMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, not sure about that.
Boris is near certain to run, but he's very divisive. Davis may sit it out (he's knocking on a bit). McVey is likely to run, not sure about Raab.
There's also the likes of Hunt, Javid, Mordaunt to consider.
0 -
CD13 said:
Do you ever feel sorry for Mrs May? She's not up to the job, but she's doing her poor best. And the sight of her being attacked by a pack of hyenas is unedifying. Being a sexist, I do feel a little sympathetic. Had it been Philip, I wold have joined in the kicking. Had it been Cameron, I'd have been first in line with the hobnail boots.
Even worse, she's heading for another kicking from the EU. Calm down, dear, they're not worth it.
You consider yourself a sexist?0 -
I'll have nothing bad said about EdM. I retired in 2010 with a small lump sum, made into a larger lump sum by Ed 'Santa' Miliband who allowed me to fit solar panels at an outrageous financial advantage. Feeble-minded, he may have been, but I'll be forever grateful.0
-
I hate to break it to you HYUFD, but if May is replaced then I can't see that we'd have time for a membership vote.HYUFD said:
If May goes down she likely takes all the Cabinet Deal backers with her and the membership will almost certainly back whichever No Deal candidate of Davis, Boris, Raab or McVey ends in the final twoMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, not sure about that.
Boris is near certain to run, but he's very divisive. Davis may sit it out (he's knocking on a bit). McVey is likely to run, not sure about Raab.
There's also the likes of Hunt, Javid, Mordaunt to consider.0 -
By the way, you can back Esther McVey for next Prime Minister at 85 on Betfair if you take the ERG seriously.0
-
No Deal probably poses a greater risk to the Union than a Corbyn premiership even with SNP supportSouthamObserver said:
Yep. Both Corbyn and Sturgeon would be happy for the UK to break-up. They’re working well together.asjohnstone said:
She wants the same thing, but with the added bonus of blaming Corbyn for it too. It's how she wins.SouthamObserver said:Corbyn and his advisers want a No Deal Brexit delivered by the Tories. They’ll do nothing to prevent it happening. I suspect Sturgeon understands this and will deploy it effectively come the next elections.
0 -
An attempt to deliver a result already rejected by the people using a voting system already rejected by the people. Brilliant!Foxy said:
A #peoplesvote with 3 options by AV is the only way to answer the Brexit question. Soon enough the government will realise it. Perhaps they can discuss it over Christmas.MarqueeMark said:
A slice of Labour MPs fear their electorates if they let Brexit happen at all.DavidL said:
The flaw in that analysis is that much of the Parliamentary Labour party take very little notice of a whip from Corbyn, especially on something like this.Sandpit said:
Am I the only one surprised that didn’t happen yesterday? The vote just about passing, with the Tories split in half and the DUP threatening a VoNC, would surely have been just what Corbyn wants.Pulpstar said:
Not very hard, he simply needs to whip an abstention on the Meaningful vote.Jonathan said:
I’m not sure that’s true. Corbyn is trying to force a GE.SouthamObserver said:Corbyn and his advisers want a No Deal Brexit delivered by the Tories. They’ll do nothing to prevent it happening. I suspect Sturgeon understands this and will deploy it effectively come the next elections.
The rest fear their electorates if they block Brexit.
A slice of Tory MPs fear their electorates if they block Brexit.
The rest fear their electorates if they let Hard Brexit happen.
A general election would allow each candidate to get a mandate for their subsequent actions on Brexit. If the voters agreed with that proposed mandate. And many might not.
And would probably add no clarity as to What Happens Next?
Nobody can agree on the wording of any second referendum, the offering of which is the ultimate admission of their own uselessness.
The current political situation really is the most exquisite and intricate device of torture. Hand-crafted by both design and fuck-up, any movement at all seems to result in pain.
And all the while, the No Deal clock counts down.
Tick, tock.......tick, tock......0 -
Javid against Boris would be an interesting choice.HYUFD said:
According to Yougov last weekend all of them (bar McVey who was not polled) poll better than Hunt and Gove with the public albeit Javid polls best with the public of allSouthamObserver said:
Any of them would be a gift to Labour.AlastairMeeks said:Useful for betting purposes:
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/10723950697124904960 -
Hmm. Johnson is still inexplicably popular with some but is despised by too many. Raab has openly said he was hoodwinked so doesnt seem the sharpest choice. Davis whined that he was going to resign for months before doing so, not reliable. And I keep forgetting McVey even resigned which cannot be a good sign for her.AlastairMeeks said:Useful for betting purposes:
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1072395069712490496
Raab the best bet?0 -
Who do you reckon are the contenders (or at least those not worth laying) if the PM resigns before Christmas?AlastairMeeks said:
I'm not at all sure that's right. The first electorate, the MPs, are going to give a lot of credit to those who showed loyalty and who tried against the odds to make the Prime Minister's plan work, especially if it would have been easier for them to duck out.HYUFD said:
If May goes down she likely takes all the Cabinet Deal backers with herMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, not sure about that.
Boris is near certain to run, but he's very divisive. Davis may sit it out (he's knocking on a bit). McVey is likely to run, not sure about Raab.
There's also the likes of Hunt, Javid, Mordaunt to consider.
Gove
Hunt
Davis
Javid
Geoff Cox as a caretaker?0 -
To become PM in a time of crisis, that's probably right. In a sensible world the MPs would agree that once there was a frontrunner that should be it, as they did last time. However the world is becoming increasingly less sensible.Mortimer said:
I hate to break it to you HYUFD, but if May is replaced then I can't see that we'd have time for a membership vote.HYUFD said:
If May goes down she likely takes all the Cabinet Deal backers with her and the membership will almost certainly back whichever No Deal candidate of Davis, Boris, Raab or McVey ends in the final twoMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, not sure about that.
Boris is near certain to run, but he's very divisive. Davis may sit it out (he's knocking on a bit). McVey is likely to run, not sure about Raab.
There's also the likes of Hunt, Javid, Mordaunt to consider.
0 -
There are no good soundbites coming out of Labour though.Roger said:If it wasn't for the collapsing pound the crumbling stock market and the national humiliation the vox pops on radio would make an interesting study....
'If a no deal is better than a bad deal lets go for a no deal because we've already got a bad deal'
.....and you know that the person offering this opinion hasn't the faintest idea what it means other than that it sounds clever.
.....Which just goes to show the selling potential of a well turned soundbite.0 -
And you can lay Jacob Cream-Crackers at 32 for next Conservative leader, which seems a steal since not even his own group of headbangers are including him on their shortlist.0
-
In other news, the Prime Minister's renegotiation seems to be off to a flying start:
https://twitter.com/JunckerEU/status/10724075170015887360 -
Being fourth party, and therefore not automatically 'called', isn't helping.JosiasJessop said:
In these Brexit-obsessed times, it's good to look at something else. So here's a question that might be worth a threader from one of our esteemed writers:OldKingCole said:Well, I'm sure that with a Smith or even a pre-Iraq Blair in charge Labour would be making a lot more headway.
Dare I say it, but with a Jeremy Thorpe o a Kennedy leading the third party as well the Tories would have completely collapsed by now.
What's the matter with the Lib Dems?
They should be making hay with both main parties hopelessly split, and led by (on one side) an anti-Semite, and on the other a woman who is faced with an impossible task, and is doing it poorly. The Lib Dems should be polling 20%, and yet they are nowhere.
There are probably many factors: the after-effects of the coalition (which perversely now feels like a glorious period of sane government), a very poor leader, few MPs, no stellar talent, and little media attention. They also seem to lack a coherent message. I cannot say how the activist base is feeling, but they can't be filled with joy.
Have I missed anything?
And that leads to a second series of questions: how can the Lib Dems be fixed, and who could do it? Because they're missing their best chance since the Iraq War to actually become a contender.0 -
It might be true and Corbyn is pretty bad. He for me to vote Tory for the first time and I thought ed m was ok.Pulpstar said:
Very true. Most recently wolf was cried at Ed Miliband. Now Corbyn is at the door....Jonathan said:
My point is that Tories always say and think this regardless of who is Labour leader.CD13 said:Mr Jonathan,
"If Labour had a different leader we would be in exactly the same place."
I'm not a Tory, but most Labour contenders would be better than 'oL bonehead. Liz Kendall for starters.0 -
The wording of Article 50 has always seemed clear enough to me in excluding the possibility of revocation:DavidL said:
On the substance point they insist that the EU is a new and different form of legal system to be interpreted by its own rules and then apply the Vienna Convention which is designed for an entirely different scenario, namely negotiations between States who are not bound by such an overarching legal system.
"The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period."
I've never understood how the Vienna Convention is supposed to be able to overcome that explicit statement, given that Article 5 of the Convention says:
"The present Convention applies to any treaty which is the constituent instrument of an international organization and to any treaty adopted within an international organization without prejudice to any relevant rules of the organization."
0 -
Any race with the odious Johnson as a contender would be a living nightmare.MarqueeMark said:
Javid against Boris would be an interesting choice.HYUFD said:
According to Yougov last weekend all of them (bar McVey who was not polled) poll better than Hunt and Gove with the public albeit Javid polls best with the public of allSouthamObserver said:
Any of them would be a gift to Labour.AlastairMeeks said:Useful for betting purposes:
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/10723950697124904960 -
To be clear, are we talking next Prime Minister or next Conservative leader? It is looking increasingly likely that those might be different people.Sandpit said:
Who do you reckon are the contenders (or at least those not worth laying) if the PM resigns before Christmas?AlastairMeeks said:
I'm not at all sure that's right. The first electorate, the MPs, are going to give a lot of credit to those who showed loyalty and who tried against the odds to make the Prime Minister's plan work, especially if it would have been easier for them to duck out.HYUFD said:
If May goes down she likely takes all the Cabinet Deal backers with herMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, not sure about that.
Boris is near certain to run, but he's very divisive. Davis may sit it out (he's knocking on a bit). McVey is likely to run, not sure about Raab.
There's also the likes of Hunt, Javid, Mordaunt to consider.
Gove
Hunt
Davis
Javid
Geoff Cox as a caretaker?0 -
Way to late for another GE and then also a referendum before March. Brexit will be settled one way or the other by then.HYUFD said:It is unlikely that Corbin will win the next general election outright but he could still become PM with SNP confidence and supply so if either the SNP or Labour win a Scottish seat it does not help the Tories stay in power. Sturgeon knows though that if she holds the keys to number 10 for Corbyn she can extract a price, likely permanent Customs Union and Single Market for the UK or EUref2.
0 -
Next PM. Indeed it’s quite possible they’re two different people.AlastairMeeks said:
To be clear, are we talking next Prime Minister or next Conservative leader? It is looking increasingly likely that those might be different people.Sandpit said:
Who do you reckon are the contenders (or at least those not worth laying) if the PM resigns before Christmas?AlastairMeeks said:
I'm not at all sure that's right. The first electorate, the MPs, are going to give a lot of credit to those who showed loyalty and who tried against the odds to make the Prime Minister's plan work, especially if it would have been easier for them to duck out.HYUFD said:
If May goes down she likely takes all the Cabinet Deal backers with herMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, not sure about that.
Boris is near certain to run, but he's very divisive. Davis may sit it out (he's knocking on a bit). McVey is likely to run, not sure about Raab.
There's also the likes of Hunt, Javid, Mordaunt to consider.
Gove
Hunt
Davis
Javid
Geoff Cox as a caretaker?0 -
I suspect a successful Boris leadership bid would do more to unite the disparate factions in parliament in favour of remaining in the EU than any other single event. Without even a second referendum.AlastairMeeks said:Useful for betting purposes:
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/10723950697124904960 -
Around 20 at present and some say upto 50Slackbladder said:
I disagree. They'll be an anti-ERG/stop Boris candidate for sure. If the 'No-dealers' win then I expect a fair number of remainish Tories will split away. I think some people have already declared they would if Boris won.HYUFD said:
If May goes down she likely takes all the Cabinet Deal backers with her and the membership will almost certainly back whichever No Deal candidate of Davis, Boris, Raab or McVey ends in the final twoMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, not sure about that.
Boris is near certain to run, but he's very divisive. Davis may sit it out (he's knocking on a bit). McVey is likely to run, not sure about Raab.
There's also the likes of Hunt, Javid, Mordaunt to consider.0 -
I fear McD far more than Corbyn. He's brighter, for a start. And does occasionally compromise and pivot to get his Hard Left agenda any sniff of power going.Anazina said:
I have warmed to John McD. He is very good on the telly and is an excellent communicator. I can see why he is popular with female voters.Foxy said:
Mrs Foxy isn't consumed by Brexit, she is more a Strictly and Apprentice fan, but she was saying very approving things about McDonnell the other night. She finds him rather charming. She is no Corbyn fan, blaming his lame and half-hearted Brexit campaigning for the mess we are in now.AmpfieldAndy said:
That’s true about the Tories. They do go on monotonously and almost exclusively about how awful the current Labour leader is, no matter who that leader is. That said, it doesn’t mean it’s not true because in Corbyn’s case, partly because of who Corbyn is and partly because of McDonnell,I think it is true. Anyone reading Labour’s last manifesto would realise that Labour would destroy the economy.Jonathan said:
Tories always say the current Labour leader is the most horrifying ever. If Labour had a different leader we would be in exactly the same place.Donny43 said:
If Labour had a less horrifying leader we wouldn't be here, because they would have got some scrutiny in the election leading to them either winning or losing decisively.OldKingCole said:Thinking about it, and remembering the last almost similar crisis, Suez, the big difference seems to be me that, as I recall, Hugh Gaitskell, then Labour leader, wasn't the hate figure among the Tories that Corbyn seems to be. Aneurin Bevan was, almost, but he wan't Leader. In other words, IF Labour had a Leader with a less 'horrifying' to the Tories, back story, we'd have a better chance of getting out of the mess.
0 -
Seems about the shape of it. He's probably frustrated the Tories are not able to get it through. While the Tories will get most blame regardless other options force labour into the mix more.SouthamObserver said:
He is trying to do anything to avoid taking action that might prevent a Tory Brexit and, ideally, a no deal one.Jonathan said:
I’m not sure that’s true. Corbyn is trying to force a GE.SouthamObserver said:Corbyn and his advisers want a No Deal Brexit delivered by the Tories. They’ll do nothing to prevent it happening. I suspect Sturgeon understands this and will deploy it effectively come the next elections.
0 -
Do you own those panels outright or are.you leasing them from a company?CD13 said:I'll have nothing bad said about EdM. I retired in 2010 with a small lump sum, made into a larger lump sum by Ed 'Santa' Miliband who allowed me to fit solar panels at an outrageous financial advantage. Feeble-minded, he may have been, but I'll be forever grateful.
0 -
Unless they're on the record they're probably as real as the ERG letters being close to 48 6 months ago.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Around 20 at present and some say upto 50Slackbladder said:
I disagree. They'll be an anti-ERG/stop Boris candidate for sure. If the 'No-dealers' win then I expect a fair number of remainish Tories will split away. I think some people have already declared they would if Boris won.HYUFD said:
If May goes down she likely takes all the Cabinet Deal backers with her and the membership will almost certainly back whichever No Deal candidate of Davis, Boris, Raab or McVey ends in the final twoMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, not sure about that.
Boris is near certain to run, but he's very divisive. Davis may sit it out (he's knocking on a bit). McVey is likely to run, not sure about Raab.
There's also the likes of Hunt, Javid, Mordaunt to consider.0 -
Next Prime Minister - just possibly David Lidington if Theresa May deserts the post, as a stopgap. Otherwise I think the first four listed are the four who might be able to bridge the gap between the Conservative party and Parliament.Sandpit said:
Next PM. Indeed it’s quite possible they’re two different people.AlastairMeeks said:
To be clear, are we talking next Prime Minister or next Conservative leader? It is looking increasingly likely that those might be different people.Sandpit said:
Who do you reckon are the contenders (or at least those not worth laying) if the PM resigns before Christmas?AlastairMeeks said:
I'm not at all sure that's right. The first electorate, the MPs, are going to give a lot of credit to those who showed loyalty and who tried against the odds to make the Prime Minister's plan work, especially if it would have been easier for them to duck out.HYUFD said:
If May goes down she likely takes all the Cabinet Deal backers with herMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, not sure about that.
Boris is near certain to run, but he's very divisive. Davis may sit it out (he's knocking on a bit). McVey is likely to run, not sure about Raab.
There's also the likes of Hunt, Javid, Mordaunt to consider.
Gove
Hunt
Davis
Javid
Geoff Cox as a caretaker?
It's worth looking at some longshots who might be able to command the confidence of the House if the Conservative party insist on picking someone who cannot. Philip Hammond is perhaps the most obvious choice but Vince Cable might be surprisingly inoffensive to the largest number of people. It perhaps actively helps that he is not in one of the two main parties.0 -
I think that is right but I think most Conservative MPs will know that electing someone who isn't a Brexit fan is just storing trouble down the road. Those Brexiteers who stayed in the Cabinet are also likely to be tarred (which is why I don't think Mourdant or Leadsom have a chance). I also suspect that, after May, there will be a feeling that, whoever it is, has to be more aggressive and decisive. Out of those 4 from the ERG, I would discount Davis and I think Johnson is too toxic for many. That leaves McVey and Raab. Personal view is McVey who would appeal to the growing WWC base.Mortimer said:
I hate to break it to you HYUFD, but if May is replaced then I can't see that we'd have time for a membership vote.HYUFD said:
If May goes down she likely takes all the Cabinet Deal backers with her and the membership will almost certainly back whichever No Deal candidate of Davis, Boris, Raab or McVey ends in the final twoMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, not sure about that.
Boris is near certain to run, but he's very divisive. Davis may sit it out (he's knocking on a bit). McVey is likely to run, not sure about Raab.
There's also the likes of Hunt, Javid, Mordaunt to consider.0 -
Unless he's a liar what's the point of all this? Clarifications won't swing 100 votes.AlastairMeeks said:In other news, the Prime Minister's renegotiation seems to be off to a flying start:
https://twitter.com/JunckerEU/status/10724075170015887360 -
Hunt and Gove would be gifts, too. I suspect Javid benefits from being largely unknown.HYUFD said:
According to Yougov last weekend all of them (bar McVey who was not polled) poll better than Hunt and Gove with the public albeit Javid polls best with the public of allSouthamObserver said:
Any of them would be a gift to Labour.AlastairMeeks said:Useful for betting purposes:
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1072395069712490496
0 -
Mr Contempt?Sandpit said:
Who do you reckon are the contenders (or at least those not worth laying) if the PM resigns before Christmas?AlastairMeeks said:
I'm not at all sure that's right. The first electorate, the MPs, are going to give a lot of credit to those who showed loyalty and who tried against the odds to make the Prime Minister's plan work, especially if it would have been easier for them to duck out.HYUFD said:
If May goes down she likely takes all the Cabinet Deal backers with herMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, not sure about that.
Boris is near certain to run, but he's very divisive. Davis may sit it out (he's knocking on a bit). McVey is likely to run, not sure about Raab.
There's also the likes of Hunt, Javid, Mordaunt to consider.
Gove
Hunt
Davis
Javid
Geoff Cox as a caretaker?0 -
True, but an active, energised leader can fix that. Farage was not even an MP and managed to get lots of publicity - and not all of it negative. Cable isn't even trying.OldKingCole said:
Being fourth party, and therefore not automatically 'called', isn't helping.JosiasJessop said:
In these Brexit-obsessed times, it's good to look at something else. So here's a question that might be worth a threader from one of our esteemed writers:OldKingCole said:Well, I'm sure that with a Smith or even a pre-Iraq Blair in charge Labour would be making a lot more headway.
Dare I say it, but with a Jeremy Thorpe o a Kennedy leading the third party as well the Tories would have completely collapsed by now.
What's the matter with the Lib Dems?
They should be making hay with both main parties hopelessly split, and led by (on one side) an anti-Semite, and on the other a woman who is faced with an impossible task, and is doing it poorly. The Lib Dems should be polling 20%, and yet they are nowhere.
There are probably many factors: the after-effects of the coalition (which perversely now feels like a glorious period of sane government), a very poor leader, few MPs, no stellar talent, and little media attention. They also seem to lack a coherent message. I cannot say how the activist base is feeling, but they can't be filled with joy.
Have I missed anything?
And that leads to a second series of questions: how can the Lib Dems be fixed, and who could do it? Because they're missing their best chance since the Iraq War to actually become a contender.0 -
The Tories only hated Blair because he was successful and stole half their voters. Very different to the fear of Comrade Corb's policies.CD13 said:Mr L,
"For me Wilson was clever and capable, eminently suitable for being PM. Foot was clever but incapable, not suitable for PM. Kinnock was not clever or capable but fundamentally decent, not suitable for PM. Blair was clever but fundamentally dishonest, a disappointment but capable of being PM. Brown was clever but borderline mad, incapable of being PM. Miliband was clever but incapable (see his time in Environment) and would probably not have been a good PM. Corbyn is stupid and incapable. By far the worst option in my lifetime."
Bravo. You might be totally wrong, but so am I then. That's exactly my opinion. I voted for all of them but Brown, By the late nineties, I'd defected to Charlie K. Brown was certainly made barmy by the promotion. Kinnock stood up to Militant, Foot - well meaning, and Harold too clever for his own good possibly.0 -
In my case I bought my panels 3 years ago and are a fantastic investment. They cost £6,000 and return about £700 pa. Of course I paid cash so have no borrowing costs and the income is index linked, tax free and guaranteed for 20 yearsAlistair said:
Do you own those panels outright or are.you leasing them from a company?CD13 said:I'll have nothing bad said about EdM. I retired in 2010 with a small lump sum, made into a larger lump sum by Ed 'Santa' Miliband who allowed me to fit solar panels at an outrageous financial advantage. Feeble-minded, he may have been, but I'll be forever grateful.
0 -
John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
How House of Commons stands:
No-deal Brexit: 129 MPs
PM's deal: 207
Referendum (ie, Remain): 303
But no-deal Brexit the default if can't agree
Effectively the state of play. Logic dictates that the PM deal numbers will go more to the referendum side than No-deal, so Referendum is it.0 -
They are effectively the group around Soubry - Grieve - Wollastonkle4 said:
Unless they're on the record they're probably as real as the ERG letters being close to 48 6 months ago.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Around 20 at present and some say upto 50Slackbladder said:
I disagree. They'll be an anti-ERG/stop Boris candidate for sure. If the 'No-dealers' win then I expect a fair number of remainish Tories will split away. I think some people have already declared they would if Boris won.HYUFD said:
If May goes down she likely takes all the Cabinet Deal backers with her and the membership will almost certainly back whichever No Deal candidate of Davis, Boris, Raab or McVey ends in the final twoMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, not sure about that.
Boris is near certain to run, but he's very divisive. Davis may sit it out (he's knocking on a bit). McVey is likely to run, not sure about Raab.
There's also the likes of Hunt, Javid, Mordaunt to consider.0 -
I will be betting on Javid. If you go to the bit of Bristol where he grew up and his folks had a shop then it will drive a different narrative about the Tories - look at Stapleton Road on Google street view if you want to know why.SouthamObserver said:
Hunt and Gove would be gifts, too. I suspect Javid benefits from being largely unknown.HYUFD said:
According to Yougov last weekend all of them (bar McVey who was not polled) poll better than Hunt and Gove with the public albeit Javid polls best with the public of allSouthamObserver said:
Any of them would be a gift to Labour.AlastairMeeks said:Useful for betting purposes:
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/10723950697124904960 -
Mr. kle4, aye. I actually have some sympathy with the EU on this.
And May's stance is idiotic. Even if she 'achieves' what she wants, it amounts to a promise that's legally worthless and doesn't alter the legally binding text.0 -
The EU doesn't run on Common Law. That's one reason we aren't suited to membership.YellowSubmarine said:
I'm not a lawyer. As a lay person the silence of A50 on revocability gives them significant lea way and Ian"t there a nod to Common Law in ruling it's allowed unless expressly forbidden ? It's also hardly an integrationist judgement in given the spectrum of saying A50 is unilaterally revocable by one member state to being highly conditionally revocable by 28 member states it opts comprehensively for national sovereignty. Perhaps they are trolling Brexiters one last time ?DavidL said:
Even by the standards of the CJEU the decision is the most awful tosh.YellowSubmarine said:If you've not read the full CJEU judgement it's here. It's very accessible to the lay person and you can even just scroll down to the ruling which us basically a single paragraph. It's fairly emphatic.
http://curia.europa.eu/juris/document/document.jsf?text=&docid=208636&pageIndex=0&doclang=EN&mode=req&dir=&occ=first&part=1&cid=1252807
On the admissibility point they completely ignore the fact that however Joanna Cherry MP and others vote in the MV that can never result in the revocation of the Article 50 notice which would require separate primary legislation which the government does not intend to introduce.
On the substance point they insist that the EU is a new and different form of legal system to be interpreted by its own rules and then apply the Vienna Convention which is designed for an entirely different scenario, namely negotiations between States who are not bound by such an overarching legal system.
As they in part acknowledge one can only reach such a conclusion by recognising that. "citizenship of the Union is intended to be the fundamental status of nationals of the Member States" which should not be taken away from them if at all possible so the Court is willing to bend their interpretation of the provisions to the conclusion that gives the best prospect of that not happening. The question of why it could ever have been intended that a MS had a unilateral right to withdraw a notice but needed the unanimous consent of the other parties to extend the notice period is just ignored.
It is a political decision by a political court which has overriding objectives independent of the issues raised by the parties actually before it. Its a very different sort of law. Not inherently inferior but different. It is also a good demonstration of how the Court has been a driving force towards ever closer union and would have remained so whether Cameron's opt out of that was in force or not.0 -
Foxy said:
Mrs Foxy isn't consumed by Brexit, she is more a Strictly and Apprentice fan, but she was saying very approving things about McDonnell the other night. She finds him rather charming. She is no Corbyn fan, blaming his lame and half-hearted Brexit campaigning for the mess we are in now.
Mrs DA, who is also politically disengaged, said McDonnell could be a British Narendra Modi! Which rather overstates both his capabilities and appeal I felt. Of course, I agreed.
EDIT: Blockquotes are more fucked than Brexit.0 -
I had you down as a big Boris supporterAnazina said:
Any race with the odious Johnson as a contender would be a living nightmare.MarqueeMark said:
Javid against Boris would be an interesting choice.HYUFD said:
According to Yougov last weekend all of them (bar McVey who was not polled) poll better than Hunt and Gove with the public albeit Javid polls best with the public of allSouthamObserver said:
Any of them would be a gift to Labour.AlastairMeeks said:Useful for betting purposes:
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/10723950697124904960 -
Shades of John Major the movie driving through Brixton?Nemtynakht said:
I will be betting on Javid. If you go to the bit of Bristol where he grew up and his folks had a shop then it will drive a different narrative about the Tories - look at Stapleton Road on Google street view if you want to know why.SouthamObserver said:
Hunt and Gove would be gifts, too. I suspect Javid benefits from being largely unknown.HYUFD said:
According to Yougov last weekend all of them (bar McVey who was not polled) poll better than Hunt and Gove with the public albeit Javid polls best with the public of allSouthamObserver said:
Any of them would be a gift to Labour.AlastairMeeks said:Useful for betting purposes:
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/10723950697124904960 -
But unlike Brexit at least blockquotes can be fixed. So we have hope.Dura_Ace said:
Mrs DA, who is also politically disengaged, said McDonnell could be a British Narendra Modi! Which rather overstates both his capabilities and appeal I felt. Of course, I agreed.
EDIT: Blockquotes are more fucked than Brexit.
0 -
He isn't a liar. The point is that May is a well-practiced can kicker and is hoping that something comes along to save her. As was argued below she thinks she can run the clock down to apply pressure and in her shoes I can understand the appeal. It won't work though, and the will of parliament to take back control from her is clear and unambiguous. As Tory MPs somehow still have confidence in her (they're more frit than she is) she remains in office though clearly not in power.kle4 said:
Unless he's a liar what's the point of all this? Clarifications won't swing 100 votes.AlastairMeeks said:In other news, the Prime Minister's renegotiation seems to be off to a flying start:
https://twitter.com/JunckerEU/status/1072407517001588736
There is a mirror effect on the other side of the house as well. The PLP is well organised and motivated, and has built a cross-party network which as we see from the Benn amendment and now the letter demanding Corbyn follow conference and demand a VONC. From what I read on Facebook the mood of the membership is greatly subdued - Corbyn supporters can very clearly see Corbyn refusing to accept the will of the membership and acting against what they strongly see as both their own best interests and also of the party.
I expect May to continue adrift at the wheel and increasingly Corbyn the same as power has already left them.0 -
I'm surprised he's gone so far. The danger for the EU now is that softening simply feeds the ERG trolls.AlastairMeeks said:In other news, the Prime Minister's renegotiation seems to be off to a flying start:
https://twitter.com/JunckerEU/status/10724075170015887360 -
Perhaps foolishly, I am laying three of those plus JRM. The only one I’m backing is McVey.IanB2 said:
Lay them all?AlastairMeeks said:Useful for betting purposes:
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1072395069712490496
I don’t rate the ERG.0 -
Doesn't seem to be does he! I think there may be another problem; that the backroom staff were traumatised by 2015 and haven't got over it. Or have 'done a Clegg', if not as far as California.JosiasJessop said:
True, but an active, energised leader can fix that. Farage was not even an MP and managed to get lots of publicity - and not all of it negative. Cable isn't even trying.OldKingCole said:
Being fourth party, and therefore not automatically 'called', isn't helping.JosiasJessop said:
In these Brexit-obsessed times, it's good to look at something else. So here's a question that might be worth a threader from one of our esteemed writers:OldKingCole said:Well, I'm sure that with a Smith or even a pre-Iraq Blair in charge Labour would be making a lot more headway.
Dare I say it, but with a Jeremy Thorpe o a Kennedy leading the third party as well the Tories would have completely collapsed by now.
What's the matter with the Lib Dems?
They should be making hay with both main parties hopelessly split, and led by (on one side) an anti-Semite, and on the other a woman who is faced with an impossible task, and is doing it poorly. The Lib Dems should be polling 20%, and yet they are nowhere.
There are probably many factors: the after-effects of the coalition (which perversely now feels like a glorious period of sane government), a very poor leader, few MPs, no stellar talent, and little media attention. They also seem to lack a coherent message. I cannot say how the activist base is feeling, but they can't be filled with joy.
Have I missed anything?
And that leads to a second series of questions: how can the Lib Dems be fixed, and who could do it? Because they're missing their best chance since the Iraq War to actually become a contender.
Farage was an enthusiastisc recruiter, even if he didn't know people very well.0 -
Mr. Royale, the failed coup attempt didn't show them in a good light regarding either judgement or strength (in terms of PCP numbers).0
-
Thanks for that reply, and good call on Lidington as a caretaker. Will take a look look at my book on this as it looks like a change of PM could well be imminent now.AlastairMeeks said:
Next Prime Minister - just possibly David Lidington if Theresa May deserts the post, as a stopgap. Otherwise I think the first four listed are the four who might be able to bridge the gap between the Conservative party and Parliament.Sandpit said:
Next PM. Indeed it’s quite possible they’re two different people.AlastairMeeks said:
To be clear, are we talking next Prime Minister or next Conservative leader? It is looking increasingly likely that those might be different people.Sandpit said:
Who do you reckon are the contenders (or at least those not worth laying) if the PM resigns before Christmas?AlastairMeeks said:
I'm not at all sure that's right. The first electorate, the MPs, are going to give a lot of credit to those who showed loyalty and who tried against the odds to make the Prime Minister's plan work, especially if it would have been easier for them to duck out.HYUFD said:
If May goes down she likely takes all the Cabinet Deal backers with herMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, not sure about that.
Boris is near certain to run, but he's very divisive. Davis may sit it out (he's knocking on a bit). McVey is likely to run, not sure about Raab.
There's also the likes of Hunt, Javid, Mordaunt to consider.
Gove
Hunt
Davis
Javid
Geoff Cox as a caretaker?
It's worth looking at some longshots who might be able to command the confidence of the House if the Conservative party insist on picking someone who cannot. Philip Hammond is perhaps the most obvious choice but Vince Cable might be surprisingly inoffensive to the largest number of people. It perhaps actively helps that he is not in one of the two main parties.
I hadn’t thought of your second scenario, but surely someone like Cable would see both Con and Lab seek to no-confidence him as soon as possible? Hammond as a caretaker PM while not actually leader of the party would close off the ‘22 route of getting rid of him, but could he see the same deal through with half his own party opposed to it?0 -
It’s schrodinger’s renegotiation: there absolutely isn’t one and is one at the same time.AlastairMeeks said:In other news, the Prime Minister's renegotiation seems to be off to a flying start:
https://twitter.com/JunckerEU/status/1072407517001588736
It will just be called a “clarification” rather than a change.0 -
I doubt that would count against him on the Tory side.kle4 said:
Mr Contempt?Sandpit said:
Who do you reckon are the contenders (or at least those not worth laying) if the PM resigns before Christmas?AlastairMeeks said:
I'm not at all sure that's right. The first electorate, the MPs, are going to give a lot of credit to those who showed loyalty and who tried against the odds to make the Prime Minister's plan work, especially if it would have been easier for them to duck out.HYUFD said:
If May goes down she likely takes all the Cabinet Deal backers with herMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, not sure about that.
Boris is near certain to run, but he's very divisive. Davis may sit it out (he's knocking on a bit). McVey is likely to run, not sure about Raab.
There's also the likes of Hunt, Javid, Mordaunt to consider.
Gove
Hunt
Davis
Javid
Geoff Cox as a caretaker?
They all know it was Theresa May refusing to release it. He did the best job possible in the circumstances. The hope is he could do the same for Brexit.0 -
Any advance on 'odious' It somehow feels too tame.Anazina said:
Any race with the odious Johnson as a contender would be a living nightmare.MarqueeMark said:
Javid against Boris would be an interesting choice.HYUFD said:
According to Yougov last weekend all of them (bar McVey who was not polled) poll better than Hunt and Gove with the public albeit Javid polls best with the public of allSouthamObserver said:
Any of them would be a gift to Labour.AlastairMeeks said:Useful for betting purposes:
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/10723950697124904960 -
He wouldn't be trying to see the same deal through. A non-main party leader Prime Minister would be steering a government to a second referendum.Sandpit said:
Thanks for that reply, and good call on Lidington as a caretaker. Will take a look look at my book on this as it looks like a change of PM could well be imminent now.AlastairMeeks said:
Next Prime Minister - just possibly David Lidington if Theresa May deserts the post, as a stopgap. Otherwise I think the first four listed are the four who might be able to bridge the gap between the Conservative party and Parliament.Sandpit said:
Next PM. Indeed it’s quite possible they’re two different people.AlastairMeeks said:
To be clear, are we talking next Prime Minister or next Conservative leader? It is looking increasingly likely that those might be different people.Sandpit said:
Who do you reckon are the contenders (or at least those not worth laying) if the PM resigns before Christmas?AlastairMeeks said:
I'm not at all sure that's right. The first electorate, the MPs, are going to give a lot of credit to those who showed loyalty and who tried against the odds to make the Prime Minister's plan work, especially if it would have been easier for them to duck out.HYUFD said:
If May goes down she likely takes all the Cabinet Deal backers with herMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, not sure about that.
Boris is near certain to run, but he's very divisive. Davis may sit it out (he's knocking on a bit). McVey is likely to run, not sure about Raab.
There's also the likes of Hunt, Javid, Mordaunt to consider.
Gove
Hunt
Davis
Javid
Geoff Cox as a caretaker?
It's worth looking at some longshots who might be able to command the confidence of the House if the Conservative party insist on picking someone who cannot. Philip Hammond is perhaps the most obvious choice but Vince Cable might be surprisingly inoffensive to the largest number of people. It perhaps actively helps that he is not in one of the two main parties.
I hadn’t thought of your second scenario, but surely someone like Cable would see both Con and Lab seek to no-confidence him as soon as possible? Hammond as a caretaker PM while not actually leader of the party would close off the ‘22 route of getting rid of him, but could he see the same deal through with half his own party opposed to it?0 -
This is the ultimate kick the can down the road and at the same time demonstrate she has exhausted all paths open to finalise the deal in the EUMorris_Dancer said:Mr. kle4, aye. I actually have some sympathy with the EU on this.
And May's stance is idiotic. Even if she 'achieves' what she wants, it amounts to a promise that's legally worthless and doesn't alter the legally binding text.
I am just amazed that TM has driven a coach and horse through the HOC and, so far, she can do it with impunity ignoring the ERG, Corbyn and labour, and of course the idiotic speaker
She will no doubt put the deal back to the HOC in January with the very real prospect of a no deal by default. It may well be that she hopes that those referendum mps will get their act together for the meaningful vote and force through approval of the deal but subject to a referendum
I would be very relieved and pleased if that was the end game0 -
Nothing prevented him from resigning if he did not agree with her but if Tories want to pretend otherwise that's their business.MarqueeMark said:
I doubt that would count against him on the Tory side.kle4 said:
Mr Contempt?Sandpit said:
Who do you reckon are the contenders (or at least those not worth laying) if the PM resigns before Christmas?AlastairMeeks said:
I'm not at all sure that's right. The first electorate, the MPs, are going to give a lot of credit to those who showed loyalty and who tried against the odds to make the Prime Minister's plan work, especially if it would have been easier for them to duck out.HYUFD said:
If May goes down she likely takes all the Cabinet Deal backers with herMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, not sure about that.
Boris is near certain to run, but he's very divisive. Davis may sit it out (he's knocking on a bit). McVey is likely to run, not sure about Raab.
There's also the likes of Hunt, Javid, Mordaunt to consider.
Gove
Hunt
Davis
Javid
Geoff Cox as a caretaker?
They all know it was Theresa May refusing to release it. He did the best job possible in the circumstances. The hope is he could do the same for Brexit.
0 -
But if there isn’t a substantial change to the actual legal text of the WA, it’s still not passing Parliament with 100 MPs on the government side opposed to it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s schrodinger’s renegotiation: there absolutely isn’t one and is one at the same time.AlastairMeeks said:In other news, the Prime Minister's renegotiation seems to be off to a flying start:
https://twitter.com/JunckerEU/status/1072407517001588736
It will just be called a “clarification” rather than a change.
Do Labour abstain at the last minute to try and force a GE, or do the EU blink after a month of staring no-deal (and a hard Irish border) in the face?0 -
It would surely have to be stitched up in back rooms to ensure whoever emerged could win a confidence vote. The joys of hung parliaments.Mortimer said:
I hate to break it to you HYUFD, but if May is replaced then I can't see that we'd have time for a membership vote.HYUFD said:
If May goes down she likely takes all the Cabinet Deal backers with her and the membership will almost certainly back whichever No Deal candidate of Davis, Boris, Raab or McVey ends in the final twoMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, not sure about that.
Boris is near certain to run, but he's very divisive. Davis may sit it out (he's knocking on a bit). McVey is likely to run, not sure about Raab.
There's also the likes of Hunt, Javid, Mordaunt to consider.0 -
Mephitine.Roger said:
Any advance on 'odious' It somehow feels too tame.Anazina said:
Any race with the odious Johnson as a contender would be a living nightmare.MarqueeMark said:
Javid against Boris would be an interesting choice.HYUFD said:
According to Yougov last weekend all of them (bar McVey who was not polled) poll better than Hunt and Gove with the public albeit Javid polls best with the public of allSouthamObserver said:
Any of them would be a gift to Labour.AlastairMeeks said:Useful for betting purposes:
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/10723950697124904960 -
I don’t know why it’s news that the Government and Opposition always attack the other’s leaders. That’s pretty much politics 101.Donny43 said:
The Tories only hated Blair because he was successful and stole half their voters. Very different to the fear of Comrade Corb's policies.CD13 said:Mr L,
"For me Wilson was clever and capable, eminently suitable for being PM. Foot was clever but incapable, not suitable for PM. Kinnock was not clever or capable but fundamentally decent, not suitable for PM. Blair was clever but fundamentally dishonest, a disappointment but capable of being PM. Brown was clever but borderline mad, incapable of being PM. Miliband was clever but incapable (see his time in Environment) and would probably not have been a good PM. Corbyn is stupid and incapable. By far the worst option in my lifetime."
Bravo. You might be totally wrong, but so am I then. That's exactly my opinion. I voted for all of them but Brown, By the late nineties, I'd defected to Charlie K. Brown was certainly made barmy by the promotion. Kinnock stood up to Militant, Foot - well meaning, and Harold too clever for his own good possibly.
Labour’s equivalent is to say the NHS is on its knees with only 24 hours to save it within minutes of the Tories taking office, or arguing that it’ll be privatised and the Tories both want to and enjoy attacking the destitute, and they want to expand their numbers too.
As far as the personal attacks go, Labour thought dressing someone up in a top hat and cane to walk around Crewe was a vote winner for them in the by-election of 2008.0 -
I see a couple of pb’ers spouses are nurturing naive delusions (I could use stronger language) about John McDonnell. Perhaps he’ll be compared to Obama and Mother Theresa next.
Let’s not beat around the bush: he’s pure filth. A shit of the first order.0 -
A clarification is a change to the text.Sandpit said:
But if there isn’t a substantial change to the actual legal text of the WA, it’s still not passing Parliament with 100 MPs on the government side opposed to it.Casino_Royale said:
It’s schrodinger’s renegotiation: there absolutely isn’t one and is one at the same time.AlastairMeeks said:In other news, the Prime Minister's renegotiation seems to be off to a flying start:
https://twitter.com/JunckerEU/status/1072407517001588736
It will just be called a “clarification” rather than a change.
Do Labour abstain at the last minute to try and force a GE, or do the EU blink after a month of staring no-deal (and a hard Irish border) in the face?
Provided it’s in writing, of course. It could be a rider to the WA.0 -
AlastairMeeks said:
So plan is:Sandpit said:
He wouldn't be trying to see the same deal through. A non-main party leader Prime Minister would be steering a government to a second referendum.AlastairMeeks said:
Thanks for that reply, and good call on Lidington as a caretaker. Will take a look look at my book on this as it looks like a change of PM could well be imminent now.Sandpit said:
Next Prime Minister - just possibly David Lidington if Theresa May deserts the post, as a stopgap. Otherwise I think the first four listed are the four who might be able to bridge the gap between the Conservative party and Parliament.AlastairMeeks said:
Next PM. Indeed it’s quite possible they’re two different people.Sandpit said:
To be clear, are we talking next Prime Minister or next Conservative leader? It is looking increasingly likely that those might be different people.AlastairMeeks said:
GoveHYUFD said:
If May goes down she likely takes all the Cabinet Deal backers with herMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, not sure about that.
Boris is near certain to run, but he's very divisive. Davis may sit it out (he's knocking on a bit). McVey is likely to run, not sure about Raab.
There's also the likes of Hunt, Javid, Mordaunt to consider.
Hunt
Davis
Javid
Geoff Cox as a caretaker?
It's worth looking at some longshots who might be able to command the confidence of the House if the Conservative party insist on picking someone who cannot. Philip Hammond is perhaps the most obvious choice but Vince Cable might be surprisingly inoffensive to the largest number of people. It perhaps actively helps that he is not in one of the two main parties.
I hadn’t thought of your second scenario, but surely someone like Cable would see both Con and Lab seek to no-confidence him as soon as possible? Hammond as a caretaker PM while not actually leader of the party would close off the ‘22 route of getting rid of him, but could he see the same deal through with half his own party opposed to it?
1. Government of 'all the talents'....... approx 50% Tory, 50% :Labour. Maybe another Lib Dem and and SNP-er.
2. Pull the A50 letter.
3. Sort out a referendum........ question(s), rules and policing those rules.
4. Hold the referendum.
5 General Election.
Not saying repeal the FTPA, though.
And sort out the blockquote problem!0 -
It will have to be someone who ultimately commands the confidence of the house. Which makes it hard for Boris or an ultra BrexiteerDonny43 said:
It would surely have to be stitched up in back rooms to ensure whoever emerged could win a confidence vote. The joys of hung parliaments.Mortimer said:
I hate to break it to you HYUFD, but if May is replaced then I can't see that we'd have time for a membership vote.HYUFD said:
If May goes down she likely takes all the Cabinet Deal backers with her and the membership will almost certainly back whichever No Deal candidate of Davis, Boris, Raab or McVey ends in the final twoMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, not sure about that.
Boris is near certain to run, but he's very divisive. Davis may sit it out (he's knocking on a bit). McVey is likely to run, not sure about Raab.
There's also the likes of Hunt, Javid, Mordaunt to consider.0 -
Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Royale, the failed coup attempt didn't show them in a good light regarding either judgement or strength (in terms of PCP numbers).
If they’re banking that the members are bound to put the ERG candidate over the line (because the Tory MPs won’t) then I wouldn’t bank too heavily on that if I were them.
There are lots of Tory members none too impressed by their antics and who don’t like being taken for fools.0 -
I'm open to other plans but that looks as workable as any that anyone has suggested, to my eyes at least.OldKingCole said:
So plan is:AlastairMeeks said:
He wouldn't be trying to see the same deal through. A non-main party leader Prime Minister would be steering a government to a second referendum.
1. Government of 'all the talents'....... approx 50% Tory, 50% :Labour. Maybe another Lib Dem and and SNP-er.
2. Pull the A50 letter.
3. Sort out a referendum........ question(s), rules and policing those rules.
4. Hold the referendum.
5 General Election.
Not saying repeal the FTPA, though.
0 -
Likewise. We can suspect that the ERG has only 20-30 supporters. Therefore any successful candidate would need a broader tent. There will surely be at least one runner who rejected May's deal originally though.Casino_Royale said:
Perhaps foolishly, I am laying three of those plus JRM. The only one I’m backing is McVey.IanB2 said:
Lay them all?AlastairMeeks said:Useful for betting purposes:
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1072395069712490496
I don’t rate the ERG.0 -
So another week another humiliating surrender by Macron:
' Speaking in a televised address, Mr Macron condemned the violence but said the protesters' anger was "deep, and in many ways legitimate".
The minimum wage would increase by €100 per month from 2019, he said.
A planned tax increase for low-income pensioners would be cancelled, overtime pay would no longer be taxed, and employers would be encouraged to pay a tax-free end of year bonus to employees, he added. '
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46513189
What does he give away to buy off the next round of protests ?0 -
Agreed. Plus brings all of this to a conclusion and gives clarity as to where we stand rather than TM’s complete denial strategy. It might be the triumph of hope over expectation though.AlastairMeeks said:
I'm open to other plans but that looks as workable as any that anyone has suggested, to my eyes at least.OldKingCole said:
So plan is:AlastairMeeks said:
He wouldn't be trying to see the same deal through. A non-main party leader Prime Minister would be steering a government to a second referendum.
1. Government of 'all the talents'....... approx 50% Tory, 50% :Labour. Maybe another Lib Dem and and SNP-er.
2. Pull the A50 letter.
3. Sort out a referendum........ question(s), rules and policing those rules.
4. Hold the referendum.
5 General Election.
Not saying repeal the FTPA, though.0 -
I shall reveal my darkest secret (some already know ofc!). He is my namesake (at least until I get my GRC) , which gives me superb Google camo.Casino_Royale said:I see a couple of pb’ers spouses are nurturing naive delusions (I could use stronger language) about John McDonnell. Perhaps he’ll be compared to Obama and Mother Theresa next.
Let’s not beat around the bush: he’s pure filth. A shit of the first order.
I get some cracking DMs on Twitter
. 0 -
An interesting example of "Everything Before the But".another_richard said:So another week another humiliating surrender by Macron:
' Speaking in a televised address, Mr Macron condemned the violence but said the protesters' anger was "deep, and in many ways legitimate".0 -
In the same qay that BoJo is a shit but not quite on the scale.Casino_Royale said:I see a couple of pb’ers spouses are nurturing naive delusions (I could use stronger language) about John McDonnell. Perhaps he’ll be compared to Obama and Mother Theresa next.
Let’s not beat around the bush: he’s pure filth. A shit of the first order.0 -
-
He’s no worse than Dominic Raab and Esther McVey.Casino_Royale said:I see a couple of pb’ers spouses are nurturing naive delusions (I could use stronger language) about John McDonnell. Perhaps he’ll be compared to Obama and Mother Theresa next.
Let’s not beat around the bush: he’s pure filth. A shit of the first order.
Those two heard the Health Secretary say in the event of no deal he couldn’t guarantee people wouldn’t die because of No Deal but they put ideology ahead of compromise and saving people’s lives.0 -
I hate to break it to you Mortimer but if May is replaced the ERG will only accept a coronation for a No Dealer otherwise they will put up a candidate and force a membership voteMortimer said:
I hate to break it to you HYUFD, but if May is replaced then I can't see that we'd have time for a membership vote.HYUFD said:
If May goes down she likely takes all the Cabinet Deal backers with her and the membership will almost certainly back whichever No Deal candidate of Davis, Boris, Raab or McVey ends in the final twoMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Meeks, not sure about that.
Boris is near certain to run, but he's very divisive. Davis may sit it out (he's knocking on a bit). McVey is likely to run, not sure about Raab.
There's also the likes of Hunt, Javid, Mordaunt to consider.0 -
Perhaps the deadline for a second referendum could be as late as 29th March 2019.
If so, on 29th March the PM (May / Corbyn / .. Other) calls Brussels and asks for an emergency extension of one week to Article 50 to plan a second referendum. EU leaders discuss this in a telephone conference and agree it. That week an EU summit is held, and a extension of six months to Article 50 is agreed. During this time the UK government organises and holds a second referendum.0 -
Whats left to give ?another_richard said:So another week another humiliating surrender by Macron:
' Speaking in a televised address, Mr Macron condemned the violence but said the protesters' anger was "deep, and in many ways legitimate".
The minimum wage would increase by €100 per month from 2019, he said.
A planned tax increase for low-income pensioners would be cancelled, overtime pay would no longer be taxed, and employers would be encouraged to pay a tax-free end of year bonus to employees, he added. '
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46513189
What does he give away to buy off the next round of protests ?
The macron gamble was always going to be if he could keep order while carrying out reforms. He has failed, mostly as a result of his own actions. He gave the better off massive tax cuts and then thumped the bottom 20% with tax hikes. He is now a busted flush scraping around for some for of legitmacy.
The gilets jaunes have already said its not enough and want to take to the streets on friday.
Their very diversity and devolved structure is his problem since they have no formal leadership. Currently the french government is trying to settle an argument with the internet good luck with that.0 -
Oh, he’s much worse. He’s argued for unifying Ireland through the bullet and the bomb, dog whistled about lynching leading female Tories and quipped about runs on the pound and a Marxist revolution.TheScreamingEagles said:
He’s no worse than Dominic Raab and Esther McVey.Casino_Royale said:I see a couple of pb’ers spouses are nurturing naive delusions (I could use stronger language) about John McDonnell. Perhaps he’ll be compared to Obama and Mother Theresa next.
Let’s not beat around the bush: he’s pure filth. A shit of the first order.
Those two heard the Health Secretary say in the event of no deal he couldn’t guarantee people wouldn’t die because of No Deal but they put ideology ahead of compromise and saving people’s lives.
Remarkable you’re defending him.0 -
LIKE!@!!@!!Scott_P said:0 -
Has anyone floated this one?
It becomes clear that TM has no plan other than her deal and will not be ditched by the tories, so Lab + oppo parties + DUP combine and bring down the govt in a VONC.
They do a deal whereby Corbyn becomes PM in a minority Lab govt. Mandate ONLY to do Brexit since they won't support him on much else.
Lab extend art 50 and negotiate a very very soft Brexit. They commit to CU and SM and are able to drop the backstop. We leave on that basis.
Corbyn now calls GE with support from all parties and goes for a majority.0 -
I wasn't too fussed about Corbyn. I thought he was a bad choice - but in the absence of any good ones what the heck. I was originally very suspicious of McDonnell though. But now we've got to know him I am finding him quite interesting. He may well be just the man we need right now.Foxy said:
Mrs Foxy isn't consumed by Brexit, she is more a Strictly and Apprentice fan, but she was saying very approving things about McDonnell the other night. She finds him rather charming. She is no Corbyn fan, blaming his lame and half-hearted Brexit campaigning for the mess we are in now.AmpfieldAndy said:
That’s true about the Tories. They do go on monotonously and almost exclusively about how awful the current Labour leader is, no matter who that leader is. That said, it doesn’t mean it’s not true because in Corbyn’s case, partly because of who Corbyn is and partly because of McDonnell,I think it is true. Anyone reading Labour’s last manifesto would realise that Labour would destroy the economy.Jonathan said:
Tories always say the current Labour leader is the most horrifying ever. If Labour had a different leader we would be in exactly the same place.Donny43 said:
If Labour had a less horrifying leader we wouldn't be here, because they would have got some scrutiny in the election leading to them either winning or losing decisively.OldKingCole said:Thinking about it, and remembering the last almost similar crisis, Suez, the big difference seems to be me that, as I recall, Hugh Gaitskell, then Labour leader, wasn't the hate figure among the Tories that Corbyn seems to be. Aneurin Bevan was, almost, but he wan't Leader. In other words, IF Labour had a Leader with a less 'horrifying' to the Tories, back story, we'd have a better chance of getting out of the mess.
0
