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  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504

    I do not see how, if May doesn't bring the MV to a vote before christmas, her party doesn't VONC her before the end of the session.

    Surely NOBODY, regardless of Brexityness, wants this humiliation to drag on over the season of goodwill?

    But if the alternative is a Corbyn government...........
  • Oh dear Mr Xenon, if you are going to comment on the EU system, please try and understand how it works. The power is with the Council of Ministers (the elected heads of government of the 27/28) . The Commission implements their wishes. Read the Daily Express a little less, and try and gain a little more understanding of the real world.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Compounding this by landing us in a No Deal Brexit for which we are unprepared in a world where the long-standing post-war setllement is under strain and at risk of fracturing and where some of our potential leaders seem to think they should be on the side of those doing the fracturing is utterly foolish. That is what some Tories - and the ERG in particular - are doing for not better reason than an utterly irrational hatred of the EU.

    Too many politicians and commentators are viewing this as a game. But it isn’t. Peoples’ lives and futures matter and depend on what politicians do and don’t do. I saw how people close to me (both at he start and end of their lives) suffered when we had serious economic dislocation in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s.

    I do not want that happening to me and mine again. If that makes me feverish, well, too bad.
    It takes two to tango. If there is a no deal Brexit then Ireland and the rest of the EU deserve half the blame and opprobrium for refusing to negotiate without the backstop. But I only see you blaming the ERG etc
    I have criticised the EU. But it is the ERG and their friends which seems to think that they can ignore the GFA and the Troubles in order to pursue their purist view of Brexit in which Britain gets everything it wants and utterly ignores everyone else’s wishes. It was Rees-Mogg who made some utterly stupid statement about having a border like in the Troubles. For the love of God! People like him are making Britain a laughing stock.

    for continentals britain or more particulaly england has always provided humour and vice versa
    No - Britain was really looked up to by my Italian family. She was seen as a country which had avoided the worst excesses of the 20th century, which had done the right thing and showed courage and steadfastness and a sort of boring competence and normality. If her food was rubbish and her people unstylish and her weather a bit meh, never mind. There was a disappointment that Britain didn’t engage more fully. But Britain was admired. Maybe that’s an old-fashioned and romantic view. But it was real amongst my parents’s generation and shared to some extent by the next generation who also saw some excitement in England.

    And now - we look mean-minded and pathetic and incompetent. Not eccentric but basically decent. But nasty and deluded.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited December 2018
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    How does she lose a confidence vote ?

    If a confidence vote means her resigning but the Tories not having to leave government I’d have thought she’d be nailed on to lose.

    It's a vote of confidence in the government, not the PM. But yes, losing it would not necessarily mean the Tories having to leave government, they'd have 14 days to put together a government under a different PM (or indeed under Theresa May) which would then have to win a second vote of confidence.
    Why are Labour running scared?

    There's no way TMay wins a confidence vote.

    There are, I would say, at least 30-40 Tories prepared bring down the government (roughly the same people who wrote to Brady). And a 0% chance more than three Labour MPs (or rather elected as Labour MPs) vote to sustain her.

    Maybe not 30-40, but I would not be surprised if Conservative MPs refused to support the government in a VONC. They'd be ending their careers, but we're not dealing with very rational people.

    So, Corbyn ought to give it a try.
    Are they ending their careers though? they think May is broken. They think there is a candidate in the Tory party that can turn things around.
    Yes. Confidence votes are effectively an implicit four-line whip. Vote against your party in a VONC, you're out of the party, persona non grata, for the rest of your political life. Literally the only people who would do that are those that have given up hope. But Tory remainers are full of spunk and vim at the moment.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    As Ive pointed out Remain has no more a strategy for the nation that Leave has, Politics is potentially on the edge of a significant shift.

    I think you focus too much on unimpressive personalities and not on structural political forces. Playing a full role in European integration is a viable national strategy, but Brexit isn't.
    hmm once agin you let your partisan nature get in the way of common sense

    both options are viable. Neither carry a working majority, There is no consensus in the UK,
    A UK-wide Brexit isn't viable for the reasons that Brexiteers all recoiling against now. You can have (meaningful) Brexit or the union, but not both.
    Well thats your contention but as I say you simply are letting what you want determine what you post. Staying in will no more stop fragmentation of the UK than leaving will. Nationalists wont down tools just because of no Brexit.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited December 2018


    I am assuming all opposition parties vote against the government. If a few Tory MPs do as well on the basis that it only means May going, but not the government, then that’s it.

    Ah, OK. I don't think there will be a bunch of Tory MPs voting no confidence in their own government. Voting no-confidence in your own government is a "You had one job" moment for an MP, even if there's some cunning and devious plan behind it that may or may not work out.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471

    Oh dear Mr Xenon, if you are going to comment on the EU system, please try and understand how it works. The power is with the Council of Ministers (the elected heads of government of the 27/28) . The Commission implements their wishes. Read the Daily Express a little less, and try and gain a little more understanding of the real world.

    Oh right. So how come we're negotiating Brexit with the commission if it has no power?
    We can just completely ignore them.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    Why are Labour running scared?

    There's no way TMay wins a confidence vote.

    There are, I would say, at least 30-40 Tories prepared bring down the government (roughly the same people who wrote to Brady). And a 0% chance more than three Labour MPs (or rather elected as Labour MPs) vote to sustain her.

    I doubt whether any Tory MPs would vote to bring down the government, it would be the end of their careers and they don't want Corbyn or a GE.
    Yep they may be willing to sacrifice the country's economic well-being in support of their principles. But their own jobs? Nuh-huh.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Labours only chance of winning a VONC is for Mrs May's deal to pass and they gain the DUP.

    The ERG won't be joining them in the lobby even in that circumstance.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018
    Xenon said:

    Oh dear Mr Xenon, if you are going to comment on the EU system, please try and understand how it works. The power is with the Council of Ministers (the elected heads of government of the 27/28) . The Commission implements their wishes. Read the Daily Express a little less, and try and gain a little more understanding of the real world.

    Oh right. So how come we're negotiating Brexit with the commission if it has no power?
    We can just completely ignore them.
    The commission is the guardian of the treaties, and has the power of legislative initiative. However, it cannot *make* law, only draft it.

    The commission is negotiating with the UK, under a negotiating strategy agreed with the EU27, but only the Council and the Parliament can make the negotiated agreement become union law.
  • Why are Labour running scared?

    There's no way TMay wins a confidence vote.

    There are, I would say, at least 30-40 Tories prepared bring down the government (roughly the same people who wrote to Brady). And a 0% chance more than three Labour MPs (or rather elected as Labour MPs) vote to sustain her.

    I doubt whether any Tory MPs would vote to bring down the government, it would be the end of their careers and they don't want Corbyn or a GE.
    *if* May, or the next Tory PM, either explicitly, or fairly obviously, were angling for No Deal, I think a bloc of Tory remainers will resign the whip and VONC them.

    But, I don't think it will come to that. May is just as terrified of no deal as the rest of the leavers. If it's the 28th March and No Deal is the only alternative, May will revoke A50 rather than let that happen.

    (The mechanism by which May somehow carries on can kicking till 28th March is left as an exercise to the reader)
    Yes, I think that's broadly right, although whether they'd use the nuclear option of a VONC in the government (with the attendant risk of a GE) is less clear. A GE in the middle of all this chaos wouldn't exactly help stabilise things.

    As for the can-kicking, whilst it might be legally possible to keep kicking until the 28th March, further delay is going to cause more and more economic, political and administrative damage. It already beggars belief that with just 14 weeks to go we haven't a clue as how (or in some industries whether) we'll be able to trade with the EU.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    As Ive pointed out Remain has no more a strategy for the nation that Leave has, Politics is potentially on the edge of a significant shift.

    I think you focus too much on unimpressive personalities and not on structural political forces. Playing a full role in European integration is a viable national strategy
    Except that the British people haven't been asked if they consent to it. To solve that you would have to have a referendum, probably "Join the Euro and Schengen" vs "Leave with no deal".
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,744

    As Ive pointed out Remain has no more a strategy for the nation that Leave has, Politics is potentially on the edge of a significant shift.

    I think you focus too much on unimpressive personalities and not on structural political forces. Playing a full role in European integration is a viable national strategy, but Brexit isn't.
    hmm once agin you let your partisan nature get in the way of common sense

    both options are viable. Neither carry a working majority, There is no consensus in the UK,
    A UK-wide Brexit isn't viable for the reasons that Brexiteers all recoiling against now. You can have (meaningful) Brexit or the union, but not both.
    Well thats your contention but as I say you simply are letting what you want determine what you post. Staying in will no more stop fragmentation of the UK than leaving will. Nationalists wont down tools just because of no Brexit.
    If we accept fragmentation of the UK as inevitable, surely it makes "Engexit" even less attractive? My suspicion is that England as a member state of the EU would be much more at home than it is at present via the UK.
  • notme said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kinabalu said:

    Has anyone floated this one?

    It becomes clear that TM has no plan other than her deal and will not be ditched by the tories, so Lab + oppo parties + DUP combine and bring down the govt in a VONC.

    They do a deal whereby Corbyn becomes PM in a minority Lab govt. Mandate ONLY to do Brexit since they won't support him on much else.

    Lab extend art 50 and negotiate a very very soft Brexit. They commit to CU and SM and are able to drop the backstop. We leave on that basis.

    Corbyn now calls GE with support from all parties and goes for a majority.

    We may as well remain
    That will be what happens at this rate.
    Listening to Crispin Blunt just now he is another one for WTO and not paying any money

    It is clear that the ERG have moved away from the backstop to a clear WTO from day 1

    They need to be put back in their box and best way is a referendum on the deal - remain
    The ERG need to fuck off and form tt weeds is what they deserve.
    I normally consider you one of our more balanced psoters. You now have Brexit fever,
    I think we are all #brexitfever now. With maybe Theresa May being the exception.
    personally I feel remarkably relaxed about the whole thing. If you stand back and clear your head you soon realise there are nucj more important things in life.

    So a shrug of the shoulders and an oh well then if we end up Remaining? It’s a healthy attitude that I suspect many share.

    It wont be that,

    As Ive pointed out Remain has no more a strategy for the nation that Leave has, Politics is potentially on the edge of a significant shift.

    No doubt about that. It’s hard to see how either of the big parties recover from all this, while even the medium-term future of the Union is in serious doubt. But, as you say, for most people there are much more important things in life.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited December 2018
    TGOHF said:

    The default should have been no deal from the start.

    The efforts of the last 2 years should have been to bolt on any bonus deal like elements to that decision in return for £39Bn.

    We would be in a far better place now had we done so.

    Everyone pre- and post-vote told us how easy and how many trade deals there would be. Are you saying that the country would have tolerated spending billions of pounds on preparations (and what exact preparations did you have in mind?) for something they were at the same time telling us would not happen?

    That your assessment of how this old politics thing works?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Compounding this by landing u early 1980’s.

    I do not want that happening to me and mine again. If that makes me feverish, well, too bad.
    It takes two to tango. If there is a no deal Brexit then Ireland and the rest of the EU deserve half the blame and opprobrium for refusing to negotiate without the backstop. But I only see you blaming the ERG etc
    I have criticised the EU. But it is the ERG and t stock.

    for continentals britain or more particulaly england has always provided humour and vice versa
    No - Britain was really looked up to by my Italian family. She was seen as a country which had avoided the worst excesses of the 20th century, which had done the right thing and showed courage and steadfastness and a sort of boring competence and normality. If her food was rubbish and her people unstylish and her weather a bit meh, never mind. There was a disappointment that Britain didn’t engage more fully. But Britain was admired. Maybe that’s an old-fashioned and romantic view. But it was real amongst my parents’s generation and shared to some extent by the next generation who also saw some excitement in England.

    And now - we look mean-minded and pathetic and incompetent. Not eccentric but basically decent. But nasty and deluded.
    you might feel that but really were the same people weve always been a vote doesnt change much. Have my views on Italy changed because of Salvini or Berlusconi - no. france because of Macron is still pretty much the mass of contradictions it has alweays been. Only two countries in my lifetime has tangibly changed the Republic of Ireland and Germany.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    edited December 2018

    Why are Labour running scared?

    There's no way TMay wins a confidence vote.

    There are, I would say, at least 30-40 Tories prepared bring down the government (roughly the same people who wrote to Brady). And a 0% chance more than three Labour MPs (or rather elected as Labour MPs) vote to sustain her.

    I doubt whether any Tory MPs would vote to bring down the government, it would be the end of their careers and they don't want Corbyn or a GE.
    Apologies @TheWhiteRabbit but I think you're wrong and @Richard_Nabavi is correct here:

    I don't think people appreciate the absolubtely colossal difference in scale between expressing no confidence in the current PM (A seemingly minor thing in the Tories) and being prepared to no confidence your own government.
    Any Tory willing to do it would surely resign the whip before the vote. Even then it is a leap (I wouldn't expect O'Mara to VONC a Corbyn led Gov't).
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    TOPPING said:

    Why are Labour running scared?

    There's no way TMay wins a confidence vote.

    There are, I would say, at least 30-40 Tories prepared bring down the government (roughly the same people who wrote to Brady). And a 0% chance more than three Labour MPs (or rather elected as Labour MPs) vote to sustain her.

    I doubt whether any Tory MPs would vote to bring down the government, it would be the end of their careers and they don't want Corbyn or a GE.
    Yep they may be willing to sacrifice the country's economic well-being in support of their principles. But their own jobs? Nuh-huh.
    Thats no different than you is it ?
  • Cyclefree said:

    It takes two to tango. If there is a no deal Brexit then Ireland and the rest of the EU deserve half the blame and opprobrium for refusing to negotiate without the backstop. But I only see you blaming the ERG etc

    I have criticised the EU. But it is the ERG and their friends which seems to think that they can ignore the GFA and the Troubles in order to pursue their purist view of Brexit in which Britain gets everything it wants and utterly ignores everyone else’s wishes. It was Rees-Mogg who made some utterly stupid statement about having a border like in the Troubles. For the love of God! People like him are making Britain a laughing stock.

    JRM is a muppet but so too are Soubry and Juncker and for what it's worth in my opinion Varadkar.

    Varadkar and the EU seem to want to ignore one half of the GFA and the Troubles in order to pursue their purist view of Brexit in which Ireland gets everything it wants and utterly ignored our wishes.

    The simplest solution that would work is to replace the backstop with a pledge by both parties to try to avoid a hard border then sign the deal as is minus the backstop. That guarantees no hard border at least until end of transition period and kicks the can down the road.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    The SNP have underperformed their poll ratings at recent elections. I will be surprise if they manage better than circa 33% at the next Westminster election.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Plenty of time to close that gap. Still v happy with my greenosity on Bailey.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    Support for the Conservatives in London remains at 33%, where it's been for a quarter of a century, give or take.
  • Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    How does she lose a confidence vote ?

    If a confidence vote means her resigning but the Tories not having to leave government I’d have thought she’d be nailed on to lose.

    It's a vote of confidence in the government, not the PM. But yes, losing it would not necessarily mean the Tories having to leave government, they'd have 14 days to put together a government under a different PM (or indeed under Theresa May) which would then have to win a second vote of confidence.
    Why are Labour running scared?

    There's no way TMay wins a confidence vote.

    There are, I would say, at least 30-40 Tories prepared bring down the government (roughly the same people who wrote to Brady). And a 0% chance more than three Labour MPs (or rather elected as Labour MPs) vote to sustain her.

    Maybe not 30-40, but I would not be surprised if Conservative MPs refused to support the government in a VONC. They'd be ending their careers, but we're not dealing with very rational people.

    So, Corbyn ought to give it a try.
    Are they ending their careers though? they think May is broken. They think there is a candidate in the Tory party that can turn things around.
    If any conservative voted against the party in a vnoc in the government they would be instantly deselected for any future election
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    TOPPING said:

    Plenty of time to close that gap. Still v happy with my greenosity on Bailey.
    Do you want a top up at current odds :) ?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    TOPPING said:


    Everyone pre- and post-vote told us how easy and how many trade deals would be.

    If we've learned anything at all, it's that Brexiteers have no idea whatsoever how international trade works.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Compounding this by landing u early 1980’s.

    I do not want that happening to me and mine again. If that makes me feverish, well, too bad.
    It takes two to tango. If there is a no deal Brexit then Ireland and the rest of the EU deserve half the blame and opprobrium for refusing to negotiate without the backstop. But I only see you blaming the ERG etc
    I have criticised the EU. But it is the ERG and t stock.

    for continentals britain or more particulaly england has always provided humour and vice versa
    No - Britain was really looked up to by my Italian family. She was seen as a country which had avoided the worst excesses of the 20th century, which had done the right thing and showed courage and steadfastness and a sort of boring competence and normality. If her food was rubbish and her people unstylish and her weather a bit meh, never mind. There was a disappointment that Britain didn’t engage more fully. But Britain was admired. Maybe that’s an old-fashioned and romantic view. But it was real amongst my parents’s generation and shared to some extent by the next generation who also saw some excitement in England.

    And now - we look mean-minded and pathetic and incompetent. Not eccentric but basically decent. But nasty and deluded.
    you might feel that but really were the same people weve always been a vote doesnt change much. Have my views on Italy changed because of Salvini or Berlusconi - no. france because of Macron is still pretty much the mass of contradictions it has alweays been. Only two countries in my lifetime has tangibly changed the Republic of Ireland and Germany.

    Over 3,500 people were being treated for leprosy in Spain in 1978! I know you’re a young man, but both the Iberian countries are almost totally unrecognisable to what they were when Mull of Kintyre was Number One in the charts.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    Why are Labour running scared?

    There's no way TMay wins a confidence vote.

    There are, I would say, at least 30-40 Tories prepared bring down the government (roughly the same people who wrote to Brady). And a 0% chance more than three Labour MPs (or rather elected as Labour MPs) vote to sustain her.

    I doubt whether any Tory MPs would vote to bring down the government, it would be the end of their careers and they don't want Corbyn or a GE.
    Yep they may be willing to sacrifice the country's economic well-being in support of their principles. But their own jobs? Nuh-huh.
    Thats no different than you is it ?
    Depends, Al - not wanting to pull the true patriot card, but I have AAMOF been in jobs whereby I would have sacrificed a lot more than my job for my principles.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    As Ive pointed out Remain has no more a strategy for the nation that Leave has, Politics is potentially on the edge of a significant shift.

    I think you focus too much on unimpressive personalities and not on structural political forces. Playing a full role in European integration is a viable national strategy, but Brexit isn't.
    hmm once agin you let your partisan nature get in the way of common sense

    both options are viable. Neither carry a working majority, There is no consensus in the UK,
    A UK-wide Brexit isn't viable for the reasons that Brexiteers all recoiling against now. You can have (meaningful) Brexit or the union, but not both.
    Well thats your contention but as I say you simply are letting what you want determine what you post. Staying in will no more stop fragmentation of the UK than leaving will. Nationalists wont down tools just because of no Brexit.
    If we accept fragmentation of the UK as inevitable, surely it makes "Engexit" even less attractive? My suspicion is that England as a member state of the EU would be much more at home than it is at present via the UK.
    When we get to the point of saying a policy is inevitable were heading in to agitprop not politics. If you remove Scotland and NI then the England Wales split is even more anti EU and Ive yet to see a UK political party capable of convincing a curmudgeonly electorate that the EU is to their benefit.

    Simply put where are the benefits ?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    TGOHF said:

    Labours only chance of winning a VONC is for Mrs May's deal to pass and they gain the DUP.

    The ERG won't be joining them in the lobby even in that circumstance.

    The DUP don't want to bring down the government, they want to bring down the Deal; May is collateral damage.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    As Ive pointed out Remain has no more a strategy for the nation that Leave has, Politics is potentially on the edge of a significant shift.

    I think you focus too much on unimpressive personalities and not on structural political forces. Playing a full role in European integration is a viable national strategy, but Brexit isn't.
    hmm once agin you let your partisan nature get in the way of common sense

    both options are viable. Neither carry a working majority, There is no consensus in the UK,
    A UK-wide Brexit isn't viable for the reasons that Brexiteers all recoiling against now. You can have (meaningful) Brexit or the union, but not both.
    Well thats your contention but as I say you simply are letting what you want determine what you post. Staying in will no more stop fragmentation of the UK than leaving will. Nationalists wont down tools just because of no Brexit.
    If we accept fragmentation of the UK as inevitable,
    If Brexit is this painful - you aint seen nothing yet re Scotxit...

    Brexit has put back Nicla's cause by 20 years.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    .

    Donny43 said:

    Donny43 said:

    Donny43 said:

    notme said:

    Cyclefree said:


    We may as well remain

    That will be what happens at this rate.
    Listening to Crispin Blunt just now he is another one for WTO and not paying any money

    It is clear that the ERG have moved away from the backstop to a clear WTO from day 1

    They need to be put back in their box and best way is a referendum on the deal - remain
    The ERG need to fuck off and form their own party. They are the Militant tendency of the Tory party. Steve Baker sounded utterly odious on the Today programme this morning.

    Any MP who by their shenanigans now lands us in a No Deal Brexit is an utter disgrace. Tarring, feathering and being sent to some remote Atlantic island to count weeds is what they deserve.
    I normally consider you one of our more balanced psoters. You now have Brexit fever,
    I think we are all #brexitfever now. With maybe Theresa May being the exception.
    personally I feel remarkably relaxed about the whole thing. If you stand back and clear your head you soon realise there are nucj more important things in life.

    So a shrug of the shoulders and an oh well then if we end up Remaining? It’s a healthy attitude that I suspect many share.

    And then good luck getting their support for anything you propose in the future.

    Their choice. We are a democracy, after all.

    Not if they refuse to implement a democratic vote we aren't.

    They = 650 individuals who can’t agree on how to implement the democratic vote. The ERG have a leave option on the table which they won’t accept, other Leave supporters will. What can a democracy do in such circumstances except ask the people again?

    Parliament has two options on the table: accept the deal or leave with no deal. They don't need to ask the people to choose between these two.

    Parliament is answerable to the people. It can do as it wishes within that constraint.

    Yes, and the people have been clear both in a national referendum (52%) and a subsequent general election (85%) what they expect.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Donny43 said:


    Yes, and the people have been clear both in a national referendum (52%) and a subsequent general election (85%) what they expect.

    They will also be clear in the next referendum when they change their minds.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,909
    TGOHF said:

    Labours only chance of winning a VONC is for Mrs May's deal to pass and they gain the DUP.

    The ERG won't be joining them in the lobby even in that circumstance.

    That's the irony of the situation. Passing the Deal might be the last thing this Government does. IF the DUP support a Vote of No Confidence, the motion is likely to have enough support to pass even if (as you would suspect) every Conservative MP (plus those outside the Whip) opposes.

    The dilemma is therefore this - either the Deal falls and the Government survives or the Deal passes and the Government falls.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    edited December 2018
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Pulpstar said:

    Why are Labour running scared?

    There's no way TMay wins a confidence vote.

    There are, I would say, at least 30-40 Tories prepared bring down the government (roughly the same people who wrote to Brady). And a 0% chance more than three Labour MPs (or rather elected as Labour MPs) vote to sustain her.

    I doubt whether any Tory MPs would vote to bring down the government, it would be the end of their careers and they don't want Corbyn or a GE.
    Apologies @TheWhiteRabbit but I think you're wrong and @Richard_Nabavi is correct here:

    I don't think people appreciate the absolubtely colossal difference in scale between expressing no confidence in the current PM (A seemingly minor thing in the Tories) and being prepared to no confidence your own government.
    Any Tory willing to do it would surely resign the whip before the vote.
    That isn't unthinkable in the case of Soubry, Allen or Wollaston.

    Allen would almost certainly retain her seat as a Lib Dem. Wollaston would have a fighting chance (2015/2017 were terrible for the Lib Dems in Totnes as most places, but before that it was a marginal). Soubry wouldn't, but I suspect she might not care, and the Lib Dems could potentially find her a winnable marginal in any case.
  • Seems the vote wont happen now until 21st Jan, unless I have misunderstood.

    This is way way beyond a joke now. This is just about spending another few days in Downing Street.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389
    stodge said:

    TGOHF said:

    Labours only chance of winning a VONC is for Mrs May's deal to pass and they gain the DUP.

    The ERG won't be joining them in the lobby even in that circumstance.

    That's the irony of the situation. Passing the Deal might be the last thing this Government does. IF the DUP support a Vote of No Confidence, the motion is likely to have enough support to pass even if (as you would suspect) every Conservative MP (plus those outside the Whip) opposes.

    The dilemma is therefore this - either the Deal falls and the Government survives or the Deal passes and the Government falls.
    Pass the deal, and have an election, would be my preference.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Sean_F said:

    Support for the Conservatives in London remains at 33%, where it's been for a quarter of a century, give or take.
    Boris (when he was beloved metropolitan liberal with broad cross party appeal) was able to win very much in spite of, not because of, being a Tory.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Pulpstar said:
    Looks like her.
  • Can parliament still pass laws in the 2 weeks between a no confidence vote and its dissolving for lack of a government?
  • Donny43 said:

    .

    Donny43 said:

    Donny43 said:

    Donny43 said:

    notme said:

    Cyclefree said:


    We may as well remain

    That will be what happens at this rate.
    Listening to Crispin Blunt just now he is another one for WTO and not paying any money

    It is clear that the ERG have moved away from the backstop to a clear WTO from day 1

    They need to be put back in their box and best way is a referendum on the deal - remain
    The ERG need to fuck off and form their own party. They are the Militant tendency of the Tory party. Steve Baker sounded utterly odious on the Today programme this morning.

    Any MP who by their shenanigans now lands us in a No Deal Brexit is an utter disgrace. Tarring, feathering and being sent to some remote Atlantic island to count weeds is what they deserve.
    I normally consider you one of our more balanced psoters. You now have Brexit fever,
    I think we are all #brexitfever now. With maybe Theresa May being the exception.
    personally I feel remarkably relaxed about the whole thing. If you stand back and clear your head you soon realise there are nucj more important things in life.

    So a shrug of the shoulders and an oh well then if we end up Remaining? It’s a healthy attitude that I suspect many share.

    And then good luck getting their support for anything you propose in the future.

    Their choice. We are a democracy, after all.

    Not if they refuse to implement a democratic vote we aren't.

    They = 650 individuals who can’t agree on how to implement the democratic vote. The ERG have a leave option on the table which they won’t accept, other Leave supporters will. What can a democracy do in such circumstances except ask the people again?

    Parliament has two options on the table: accept the deal or leave with no deal. They don't need to ask the people to choose between these two.

    Parliament is answerable to the people. It can do as it wishes within that constraint.

    Yes, and the people have been clear both in a national referendum (52%) and a subsequent general election (85%) what they expect.

    Did they vote for the Labour or Tory Brexit? They’re getting neither.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Compounding this by landing u early 1980’s.

    I do not want that happening to me and mine again. If that makes me feverish, well, too bad.
    It takes two to tango. If there is a no deal Brexit then Ireland and the rest of the EU deserve half the blame and opprobrium for refusing to negotiate without the backstop. But I only see you blaming the ERG etc
    I have criticised the EU. But it is the ERG and t stock.

    for continentals britain or more particulaly england has always provided humour and vice versa
    No - Britain was really looked up to by my Italian family. She was seen as a country which had avoided the worst excesses of the 20th century, which had done the right thing and showed courage and steadfastness and a sort of boring competence and normality. If her food was rubbish and her people unstylish and her weather a bit meh, never mind. There was a disappointment that Britain didn’t engage more fully. But Britain was admired. Maybe that’s an old-fashioned and romantic view. But it was real amongst my parents’s generation and shared to some extent by the next generation who also saw some excitement in England.

    And now - we look mean-minded and pathetic and incompetent. Not eccentric but basically decent. But nasty and deluded.
    you might feel that but really were the same people weve always been a vote doesnt change much. Have my views on Italy changed because of Salvini or Berlusconi - no. france because of Macron is still pretty much the mass of contradictions it has alweays been. Only two countries in my lifetime has tangibly changed the Republic of Ireland and Germany.

    Over 3,500 people were being treated for leprosy in Spain in 1978! I know you’re a young man, but both the Iberian countries are almost totally unrecognisable to what they were when Mull of Kintyre was Number One in the charts.

    While I don't know about the health figures, Portugal has changed considerably, too. And, of course, anywhere which once was behind the Iron Curtain
  • glwglw Posts: 9,914
    TGOHF said:

    If Brexit is this painful - you aint seen nothing yet re Scotxit...

    Brexit has put back Nicla's cause by 20 years.

    I was thinking much the same a day or so ago. If Brexit is this difficult, then surely breaking up the UK will be at least an order of magnitude more complicated. The ties are simply far deeper and broader, and go back centuries not decades.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    The default should have been no deal from the start.

    The efforts of the last 2 years should have been to bolt on any bonus deal like elements to that decision in return for £39Bn.

    We would be in a far better place now had we done so.

    Everyone pre- and post-vote told us how easy and how many trade deals there would be. Are you saying that the country would have tolerated spending billions of pounds on preparations (and what exact preparations did you have in mind?) for something they were at the same time telling us would not happen?

    That your assessment of how this old politics thing works?
    Anyone who said that was clearly wrong.

    I thought the EU would be easier to negotiate with because I didn't realise how petty and vindictive they would be. I think even remainers were shocked at how unreasonable they were (although of course they were egging them on saying we deserved it like self-flagellating weirdos).

    But after they refused to even open talks until we triggered Article 50 and paid them £39bn it was obvious then and our negotiating strategy had to change.

    But May just blundered along capitulating on absolutely everything and here we are.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Looks like her.
    Maybe Labour can win a VONC then ... !
    I wouldn't be happy with her if I was her constituency chairperson right now.
  • Cyclefree said:


    No - Britain was really looked up to by my Italian family. She was seen as a country which had avoided the worst excesses of the 20th century, which had done the right thing and showed courage and steadfastness and a sort of boring competence and normality. If her food was rubbish and her people unstylish and her weather a bit meh, never mind. There was a disappointment that Britain didn’t engage more fully. But Britain was admired. Maybe that’s an old-fashioned and romantic view. But it was real amongst my parents’s generation and shared to some extent by the next generation who also saw some excitement in England.

    And now - we look mean-minded and pathetic and incompetent. Not eccentric but basically decent. But nasty and deluded.

    I am afraid those are your projections based on your delusions not those of the rest of Europe. In the last fortnight I have spoken with Dutch, Norwegians, French, Germans and Italians and in every single case the overwhelming comment has been to ask why there is a chance we might not leave when we voted to Leave. And again this has, in every case, been accompanied by a comment about politicians not wanting to do what the people asked.

    I am afraid the only people bring viewed as nasty and deluded by the Europeans I talk to are this trying to stop Brexit.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504

    Sean_F said:

    Support for the Conservatives in London remains at 33%, where it's been for a quarter of a century, give or take.
    Boris (when he was beloved metropolitan liberal with broad cross party appeal) was able to win very much in spite of, not because of, being a Tory.
    Ken Livingstones bolt was pretty well shot too. Certainly by the second election.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Why are Labour running scared?

    There's no way TMay wins a confidence vote.

    There are, I would say, at least 30-40 Tories prepared bring down the government (roughly the same people who wrote to Brady). And a 0% chance more than three Labour MPs (or rather elected as Labour MPs) vote to sustain her.

    I doubt whether any Tory MPs would vote to bring down the government, it would be the end of their careers and they don't want Corbyn or a GE.
    Yep they may be willing to sacrifice the country's economic well-being in support of their principles. But their own jobs? Nuh-huh.
    Thats no different than you is it ?
    Depends, Al - not wanting to pull the true patriot card, but I have AAMOF been in jobs whereby I would have sacrificed a lot more than my job for my principles.
    well me too, and wasnt even my job. When your dads in the RUC turning the ignition has a few more connotations.

    However my point was more about people voting for whaqts in their interest. As I see it Remainers worry about their jobs and income outside th EU and feel they are at risk. This is simply however what a lot of the english regions have gone though already. and why they voted Leave. They can see no change to their propsects within the EU and have reached the fuck it stage where you might as well bet on a shake up as it gives you a chance.

    Here in the boondocks thats how things look. Youre voting for what you perceive to be your intere3sts and we are voting for ours. Currently nobody is looking at how youbalance both sides interests,
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Lord Ashcroft's polling on the deal is pretty damning:

    image

    May's campaign to selll the deal has only turned the UK even further against the deal. Now a majority of Tories think remain is a better choice then her deal.

    image
  • Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Looks like her.
    Maybe Labour can win a VONC then ... !
    I wouldn't be happy with her if I was her constituency chairperson right now.
    She’s there as a supporter of another referendum.

    She’s made it quite clear she’ll back the government in a VONC and how awful Corbyn is.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Xenon said:

    I didn't realise how petty and vindictive they would be.

    ...

    after they refused to even open talks until we triggered Article 50 and paid them £39bn

    When did following the rule of law become "petty and vindictive" ?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,909


    If any conservative voted against the party in a vnoc in the government they would be instantly deselected for any future election

    The problem is thanks to Theresa May's disastrous 2017 GE there are enough Opposition MPs to pass a Vote of No Confidence if they all join forces.

    If that is what happens, remember she threw away a small but solid majority.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    Xenon said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    The default should have been no deal from the start.

    The efforts of the last 2 years should have been to bolt on any bonus deal like elements to that decision in return for £39Bn.

    We would be in a far better place now had we done so.

    Everyone pre- and post-vote told us how easy and how many trade deals there would be. Are you saying that the country would have tolerated spending billions of pounds on preparations (and what exact preparations did you have in mind?) for something they were at the same time telling us would not happen?

    That your assessment of how this old politics thing works?
    Anyone who said that was clearly wrong.

    I thought the EU would be easier to negotiate with because I didn't realise how petty and vindictive they would be. I think even remainers were shocked at how unreasonable they were (although of course they were egging them on saying we deserved it like self-flagellating weirdos).

    But after they refused to even open talks until we triggered Article 50 and paid them £39bn it was obvious then and our negotiating strategy had to change.

    But May just blundered along capitulating on absolutely everything and here we are.
    'Anyone who said that was clearly wrong.'

    DD, Bojo, Liam Fox, Farage...... that do for starters?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,627

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Compounding this by landing u early 1980’s.

    I do not want that happening to me and mine again. If that makes me feverish, well, too bad.
    It takes two to tango. If there is a no deal Brexit then Ireland and the rest of the EU deserve half the blame and opprobrium for refusing to negotiate without the backstop. But I only see you blaming the ERG etc
    I have criticised the EU. But it is the ERG and t stock.

    for continentals britain or more particulaly england has always provided humour and vice versa
    No - Britain was really looked up to by my Italian family. She was seen as a country which had avoided the worst excesses of the 20th century, which had done the right thing and showed courage and steadfastness and a sort of boring competence and normality. If her food was rubbish and her people unstylish and her weather a bit meh, never mind. There was a disappointment that Britain didn’t engage more fully. But Britain was admired. Maybe that’s an old-fashioned and romantic view. But it was real amongst my parents’s generation and shared to some extent by the next generation who also saw some excitement in England.

    And now - we look mean-minded and pathetic and incompetent. Not eccentric but basically decent. But nasty and deluded.
    you might feel that but really were the same people weve always been a vote doesnt change much. Have my views on Italy changed because of Salvini or Berlusconi - no. france because of Macron is still pretty much the mass of contradictions it has alweays been. Only two countries in my lifetime has tangibly changed the Republic of Ireland and Germany.

    Over 3,500 people were being treated for leprosy in Spain in 1978! I know you’re a young man, but both the Iberian countries are almost totally unrecognisable to what they were when Mull of Kintyre was Number One in the charts.

    Leprosy hasn't vanished here:

    "Up to 129 cases [of leprosy] were reported in England and Wales between 2001 and 2010 and family doctors are being urged to be on the lookout for the contagious disease over fears many cases go undetected."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/news/10934366/Leprosy-is-still-present-in-Britain-and-often-misdiagnosed-say-experts.html
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Seems the vote wont happen now until 21st Jan, unless I have misunderstood.

    This is way way beyond a joke now. This is just about spending another few days in Downing Street.

    That's the absolute latest it can happen under the Withdrawal Act.

    The government may choose (or be forced by some mechanism) to hold it before then.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    TGOHF said:

    Donny43 said:

    Donny43 said:

    Donny43 said:

    notme said:

    Cyclefree said:


    We may as well remain

    That will be what happens at this rate.
    Listening to Crispin Blunt just now he is another one for WTO and not paying any money

    It is clear that the ERG have moved away from the backstop to a clear WTO from day 1

    They need to be put back in their box and best way is a referendum on the deal - remain
    The ERG need to fuck off and form their own party. They are the Militant tendency of the Tory party. Steve Baker sounded utterly odious on the Today programme this morning.

    Any MP who by their shenanigans now lands us in a No Deal Brexit is an utter disgrace. Tarring, feathering and being sent to some remote Atlantic island to count weeds is what they deserve.
    I normally consider you one of our more balanced psoters. You now have Brexit fever,
    I think we are all #brexitfever now. With maybe Theresa May being the exception.
    personally I feel remarkably relaxed about the whole thing. If you stand back and clear your head you soon realise there are nucj more important things in life.

    So a shrug of the shoulders and an oh well then if we end up Remaining? It’s a healthy attitude that I suspect many share.

    And then good luck getting their support for anything you propose in the future.

    Their choice. We are a democracy, after all.

    Not if they refuse to implement a democratic vote we aren't.

    They = 650 individuals who can’t agree on how to implement the democratic vote. The ERG have a leave option on the table which they won’t accept, other Leave supporters will. What can a democracy do in such circumstances except ask the people again?

    Parliament has two options on the table: accept the deal or leave with no deal. They don't need to ask the people to choose between these two.
    The default should have been no deal from the start.

    The efforts of the last 2 years should have been to bolt on any bonus deal like elements to that decision in return for £39Bn.

    We would be in a far better place now had we done so.
    It was, but the government refused to act accordingly.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Compounding this by landing u early 1980’s.

    I do not want that happening to me and mine again. If that makes me feverish, well, too bad.
    It takes two to tango. If there is a no deal Brexit then Ireland and the rest of the EU deserve half the blame and opprobrium for refusing to negotiate without the backstop. But I only see you blaming the ERG etc
    I have criticised the EU. But it is the ERG and t stock.

    for continentals britain or more particulaly england has always provided humour and vice versa
    No - Britain was really looked up to by my Italian family. She was seen as a country which had avoided the worst excesses of the 20th century, which had done the right thing and showed courage and steadfastness and a sort of boring competence and normality. If her food was rubbish and her people unstylish and her weather a bit meh, never mind. There was a disappointment that Britain didn’t engage more fully. But Britain was admired. Maybe that’s an old-fashioned and romantic view. But it was real amongst my parents’s generation and shared to some extent by the next generation who also saw some excitement in England.

    And now - we look mean-minded and pathetic and incompetent. Not eccentric but basically decent. But nasty and deluded.
    you might feel that but really were the same people weve always been a vote doesnt change much. Have my views on Italy changed because of Salvini or Berlusconi - no. france because of Macron is still pretty much the mass of contradictions it has alweays been. Only two countries in my lifetime has tangibly changed the Republic of Ireland and Germany.

    Over 3,500 people were being treated for leprosy in Spain in 1978! I know you’re a young man, but both the Iberian countries are almost totally unrecognisable to what they were when Mull of Kintyre was Number One in the charts.

    fair point but thats modernisation

    have the cultural aspects changed much ? Spain still seems a overly proud prickly place which likes to push its minorities around. How do you think that has move on since Franco ?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234


    have the cultural aspects changed much ? Spain still seems a overly proud prickly place which likes to push its minorities around. How do you think that has move on since Franco ?

    You misspelled "Leaverstan".
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    Who on earth are the people who think Khan is doing well?
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    TOPPING said:


    Everyone pre- and post-vote told us how easy and how many trade deals would be.

    If we've learned anything at all, it's that Brexiteers have no idea whatsoever how international trade works.
    Trying to think of a comparison, kind of thought of cloud computing. What you do is you essentially outsource the grunt of your IT services. You no longer maintain your independent email server and file server. When you do the sums, it offers quite a lot of savings, not all of them are immediately cashable. But it makes sense.
    However, someone points out that this is largely a one way process. Once you’ve done it, you’ll lose the capacity to do it for yourself, possibly forever, and even if the price is jacked up, it will still cost you more to get out and start up again. If you decide to try and reverse it, the longer you are part of the cloud, the more difficult it will be, and you’ll be starting afresh. Your staff will no longer have the skills to maintain their own infrastructure. Our scabby old exchange server can’t cope with what we all need and got used to.

    We’ve essentially deskilled ourserlves by sub contracting out all our trade negotiations for forty years. It looked easy when we saw it all done on our behalf. We are going to have to learn them again, or opt back into the cloud comfort of the customs union.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,627

    Lord Ashcroft's polling on the deal is pretty damning:

    image

    May's campaign to selll the deal has only turned the UK even further against the deal. Now a majority of Tories think remain is a better choice then her deal.

    image

    That is one mighty buffet of shit, Theresa. Impressive.
  • Odd poll. It has Khan winning on the first round which not even Ken in his prime did. I wonder if it's just Bailey's low name recognition at the moment ?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited December 2018

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Why are Labour running scared?

    There's no way TMay wins a confidence vote.

    There are, I would say, at least 30-40 Tories prepared bring down the government (roughly the same people who wrote to Brady). And a 0% chance more than three Labour MPs (or rather elected as Labour MPs) vote to sustain her.

    I doubt whether any Tory MPs would vote to bring down the government, it would be the end of their careers and they don't want Corbyn or a GE.
    Yep they may be willing to sacrifice the country's economic well-being in support of their principles. But their own jobs? Nuh-huh.
    Thats no different than you is it ?
    Depends, Al - not wanting to pull the true patriot card, but I have AAMOF been in jobs whereby I would have sacrificed a lot more than my job for my principles.
    well me too, and wasnt even my job. When your dads in the RUC turning the ignition has a few more connotations.

    However my point was more about people voting for whaqts in their interest. As I see it Remainers worry about their jobs and income outside th EU and feel they are at risk. This is simply however what a lot of the english regions have gone though already. and why they voted Leave. They can see no change to their propsects within the EU and have reached the fuck it stage where you might as well bet on a shake up as it gives you a chance.

    Here in the boondocks thats how things look. Youre voting for what you perceive to be your intere3sts and we are voting for ours. Currently nobody is looking at how youbalance both sides interests,
    Don't disagree with that at all. But my point referred to the Steve Bakers of this world. They are a million miles away from people such as us.

    And as for your father, and your family, well we lot always found it an example of the most extraordinary courage. I trained with Norman Duddy's son and am very aware of the dangers you all faced.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Looks like her.
    Maybe Labour can win a VONC then ... !
    I wouldn't be happy with her if I was her constituency chairperson right now.
    She’s there as a supporter of another referendum.

    She’s made it quite clear she’ll back the government in a VONC and how awful Corbyn is.
    I guess it is one of those classic picture not quite matching the caption moments. Still Soubry should take care that she is not becoming associated with a general anti-Tory movement here.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471

    Xenon said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    The default should have been no deal from the start.

    The efforts of the last 2 years should have been to bolt on any bonus deal like elements to that decision in return for £39Bn.

    We would be in a far better place now had we done so.

    Everyone pre- and post-vote told us how easy and how many trade deals there would be. Are you saying that the country would have tolerated spending billions of pounds on preparations (and what exact preparations did you have in mind?) for something they were at the same time telling us would not happen?

    That your assessment of how this old politics thing works?
    Anyone who said that was clearly wrong.

    I thought the EU would be easier to negotiate with because I didn't realise how petty and vindictive they would be. I think even remainers were shocked at how unreasonable they were (although of course they were egging them on saying we deserved it like self-flagellating weirdos).

    But after they refused to even open talks until we triggered Article 50 and paid them £39bn it was obvious then and our negotiating strategy had to change.

    But May just blundered along capitulating on absolutely everything and here we are.
    'Anyone who said that was clearly wrong.'

    DD, Bojo, Liam Fox, Farage...... that do for starters?
    Yes they were wrong...as was May.

    I thought the EU would want a decent relationship with us after we left and would work with us in good faith in obtaining that outcome. It's not exactly unreasonable is it?

    But of course they decided to show their true colours.

    And remainers think this is a good argument for staying in the rotten organisation.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Looks like her.
    Maybe Labour can win a VONC then ... !
    I wouldn't be happy with her if I was her constituency chairperson right now.
    She’s there as a supporter of another referendum.

    She’s made it quite clear she’ll back the government in a VONC and how awful Corbyn is.
    Let me get this straight. She's in favour of a VONC but wouldn't vote against the government. Is that right?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,627
    The same Margaret Beckett that nominated Corbyn.

    Which led to much of today's shit show.

    Respected - really? By who?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Odd poll. It has Khan winning on the first round which not even Ken in his prime did. I wonder if it's just Bailey's low name recognition at the moment ?
    I have a hunch (Which I expanded on above the line) that Khan will show what a Labour party shorn of Corbyn could really do in London. I don't think the poll is wrong.
  • Armed Police are pinning someone to the ground just inside the gates to Parliament.
  • Why are Labour running scared?

    There's no way TMay wins a confidence vote.

    There are, I would say, at least 30-40 Tories prepared bring down the government (roughly the same people who wrote to Brady). And a 0% chance more than three Labour MPs (or rather elected as Labour MPs) vote to sustain her.

    I doubt whether any Tory MPs would vote to bring down the government, it would be the end of their careers and they don't want Corbyn or a GE.
    They don't need any Tories. They only need to read the DUP choice sections of May's statement to the Commons yesterday (those bits where she says a backstop has to be part of any deal) and convince them that Labour would do better on the matter of the backstop - and that if the DUP don't help them bring down the government Labour will have no choice but to pivot to working with Tory rebels to bring about a second referendum.
  • tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Looks like her.
    Maybe Labour can win a VONC then ... !
    I wouldn't be happy with her if I was her constituency chairperson right now.
    She’s there as a supporter of another referendum.

    She’s made it quite clear she’ll back the government in a VONC and how awful Corbyn is.
    Let me get this straight. She's in favour of a VONC but wouldn't vote against the government. Is that right?
    She’s not in favour of a VONC.

    The original bbc tweet has been misinterpreted.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    Sean_F said:

    Support for the Conservatives in London remains at 33%, where it's been for a quarter of a century, give or take.
    Boris (when he was beloved metropolitan liberal with broad cross party appeal) was able to win very much in spite of, not because of, being a Tory.
    2008 was peak unpopularity for Labour. The Conservatives fell back to 34% in 2010.
  • I picked a hell of a day to go visit my friends in Parliament.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Odd poll. It has Khan winning on the first round which not even Ken in his prime did. I wonder if it's just Bailey's low name recognition at the moment ?
    I have a hunch (Which I expanded on above the line) that Khan will show what a Labour party shorn of Corbyn could really do in London. I don't think the poll is wrong.
    Sadiq Khan very effectively personifies the outward-looking, inclusive, positive image that London would like to have of itself. He has also skilfully ridden the strong anti-Brexit wave that has crashed through London. Of course he's actively popular, especially against a little-known and leaden-footed opponent.
  • Lord Ashcroft's polling on the deal is pretty damning:

    image

    May's campaign to selll the deal has only turned the UK even further against the deal. Now a majority of Tories think remain is a better choice then her deal.

    image

    Holy Hell.
  • Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Compounding this by landing u early 1980’s.

    I do not want that happening to me and mine again. If that makes me feverish, well, too bad.
    It takes two to tango. If there is a no deal Brexit then Ireland and the rest of the EU deserve half the blame and opprobrium for refusing to negotiate without the backstop. But I only see you blaming the ERG etc
    I have criticised the EU. But it is the ERG and t stock.

    for continentals britain or more particulaly england has always provided humour and vice versa
    No - Britain was really looked up to by my Italian family. She was seen as a country which had avoided the worst excesses of the 20th century, which had done the right thing and showed courage and steadfastness and a sort of boring competence and normality. If her food was rubbish and her people unstylish and her weather a bit meh, never mind. There was a disappointment that Britain didn’t engage more fully. But Britain was admired. Maybe that’s an old-fashioned and romantic view. But it was real amongst my parents’s generation and shared to some extent by the next generation who also saw some excitement in England.

    And now - we look mean-minded and pathetic and incompetent. Not eccentric but basically decent. But nasty and deluded.
    you might feel that but really were the same people weve always been a vote doesnt change much. Have my views on Italy changed because of Salvini or Berlusconi - no. france because of Macron is still pretty much the mass of contradictions it has alweays been. Only two countries in my lifetime has tangibly changed the Republic of Ireland and Germany.

    Over 3,500 people were being treated for leprosy in Spain in 1978! I know you’re a young man, but both the Iberian countries are almost totally unrecognisable to what they were when Mull of Kintyre was Number One in the charts.

    fair point but thats modernisation

    have the cultural aspects changed much ? Spain still seems a overly proud prickly place which likes to push its minorities around. How do you think that has move on since Franco ?

    It’s changed immensely in just about every way imaginable. On a par with Ireland at a minimum, I’d say. It was a military dictatorship until 1975, of course, so has probably travelled even further.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    Xenon said:

    Xenon said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    The default should have been no deal from the start.

    The efforts of the last 2 years should have been to bolt on any bonus deal like elements to that decision in return for £39Bn.

    We would be in a far better place now had we done so.

    Everyone pre- and post-vote told us how easy and how many trade deals there would be. Are you saying that the country would have tolerated spending billions of pounds on preparations (and what exact preparations did you have in mind?) for something they were at the same time telling us would not happen?

    That your assessment of how this old politics thing works?
    Anyone who said that was clearly wrong.

    I thought the EU would be easier to negotiate with because I didn't realise how petty and vindictive they would be. I think even remainers were shocked at how unreasonable they were (although of course they were egging them on saying we deserved it like self-flagellating weirdos).

    But after they refused to even open talks until we triggered Article 50 and paid them £39bn it was obvious then and our negotiating strategy had to change.

    But May just blundered along capitulating on absolutely everything and here we are.
    'Anyone who said that was clearly wrong.'

    DD, Bojo, Liam Fox, Farage...... that do for starters?
    Yes they were wrong...as was May.

    I thought the EU would want a decent relationship with us after we left and would work with us in good faith in obtaining that outcome. It's not exactly unreasonable is it?

    But of course they decided to show their true colours.

    And remainers think this is a good argument for staying in the rotten organisation.
    'I thought the EU would want a decent relationship with us after we left and would work with us in good faith in obtaining that outcome. It's not exactly unreasonable is it?'

    And your evidence for that statement is?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,175
    stodge said:

    TGOHF said:

    Labours only chance of winning a VONC is for Mrs May's deal to pass and they gain the DUP.

    The ERG won't be joining them in the lobby even in that circumstance.

    That's the irony of the situation. Passing the Deal might be the last thing this Government does. IF the DUP support a Vote of No Confidence, the motion is likely to have enough support to pass even if (as you would suspect) every Conservative MP (plus those outside the Whip) opposes.

    The dilemma is therefore this - either the Deal falls and the Government survives or the Deal passes and the Government falls.
    It might survive but unable to do much if anything.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    Armed Police are pinning someone to the ground just inside the gates to Parliament.

    Is it Boris Johnson?
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471

    Xenon said:

    Xenon said:

    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    The default should have been no deal from the start.

    The efforts of the last 2 years should have been to bolt on any bonus deal like elements to that decision in return for £39Bn.

    We would be in a far better place now had we done so.

    Everyone pre- and post-vote told us how easy and how many trade deals there would be. Are you saying that the country would have tolerated spending billions of pounds on preparations (and what exact preparations did you have in mind?) for something they were at the same time telling us would not happen?

    That your assessment of how this old politics thing works?
    Anyone who said that was clearly wrong.

    I thought the EU would be easier to negotiate with because I didn't realise how petty and vindictive they would be. I think even remainers were shocked at how unreasonable they were (although of course they were egging them on saying we deserved it like self-flagellating weirdos).

    But after they refused to even open talks until we triggered Article 50 and paid them £39bn it was obvious then and our negotiating strategy had to change.

    But May just blundered along capitulating on absolutely everything and here we are.
    'Anyone who said that was clearly wrong.'

    DD, Bojo, Liam Fox, Farage...... that do for starters?
    Yes they were wrong...as was May.

    I thought the EU would want a decent relationship with us after we left and would work with us in good faith in obtaining that outcome. It's not exactly unreasonable is it?

    But of course they decided to show their true colours.

    And remainers think this is a good argument for staying in the rotten organisation.
    'I thought the EU would want a decent relationship with us after we left and would work with us in good faith in obtaining that outcome. It's not exactly unreasonable is it?'

    And your evidence for that statement is?
    You want evidence for what I thought?

    Or that the EU would want to have a good relationship with the UK after leaving?

    It's a bit of a strange question.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,627

    I picked a hell of a day to go visit my friends in Parliament.

    What are Cameron and Osborne doing back in Parliament?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Xenon said:

    I thought the EU would want a decent relationship with us after we left and would work with us in good faith in obtaining that outcome. It's not exactly unreasonable is it?

    They did, while we screamed like petulant children the whole time
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,175
    Scott_P said:
    Bercow needs to cool it. He's not a comedian and McDonnell is perfect able to do his job without Bercow trying to do it for him.
  • Sean_F said:

    Armed Police are pinning someone to the ground just inside the gates to Parliament.

    Is it Boris Johnson?
    Don’t think so.

    Earlier on this morning there was a Brexit supporter telling me that the EU is the source of all fornication and sodomy in the world and that’s why we should Leave.

    Theresa May is a traitor as well apparently.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Why are Labour running scared?

    There's no way TMay wins a confidence vote.

    There are, I would say, at least 30-40 Tories prepared bring down the government (roughly the same people who wrote to Brady). And a 0% chance more than three Labour MPs (or rather elected as Labour MPs) vote to sustain her.

    I doubt whether any Tory MPs would vote to bring down the government, it would be the end of their careers and they don't want Corbyn or a GE.
    Yep they may be willing to sacrifice the country's economic well-being in support of their principles. But their own jobs? Nuh-huh.
    Thats no different than you is it ?
    Depends, Al - not wanting to pull the true patriot card, but I have AAMOF been in jobs whereby I would have sacrificed a lot more than my job for my principles.
    well me too, and wasnt even my job. When your dads in the RUC turning the ignition has a few more connotations.

    However my point was more about people voting for whaqts in their interest. As I see it Remainers worry about their jobs and income outside th EU and feel they are at risk. This is simply however what a lot of the english regions have gone though already. and why they voted Leave. They can see no change to their propsects within the EU and have reached the fuck it stage where you might as well bet on a shake up as it gives you a chance.

    Here in the boondocks thats how things look. Youre voting for what you perceive to be your intere3sts and we are voting for ours. Currently nobody is looking at how youbalance both sides interests,
    Don't disagree with that at all. But my point referred to the Steve Bakers of this world. They are a million miles away from people such as us.

    And as for your father, and your family, well we lot always found it an example of the most extraordinary courage. I trained with Norman Duddy's son and am very aware of the dangers you all faced.
    Theyre simply the ultras, The problem with the Brexirt wrangle is every side is projecting the extremes as the norm, its all bollocks. Like most issues the truth is somewhere in the middle,
  • Sean_F said:

    Armed Police are pinning someone to the ground just inside the gates to Parliament.

    Is it Boris Johnson?
    Sin Fein have finally turned up?
  • I picked a hell of a day to go visit my friends in Parliament.

    What are Cameron and Osborne doing back in Parliament?
    Forming the British En Marche.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    No. 10 confirm MV will take place by 21 Jan.

    Not particularly helpful regarding timing!
  • Sean_F said:

    Armed Police are pinning someone to the ground just inside the gates to Parliament.

    Is it Boris Johnson?
    Don’t think so.

    Earlier on this morning there was a Brexit supporter telling me that the EU is the source of all fornication and sodomy in the world and that’s why we should Leave.
    Isn't that a reason to Remain?

  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    It's a radical activist from People for the Ethical Treatment of Maces.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    The Tories need to dump May in very early January.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,403

    Sean_F said:

    Armed Police are pinning someone to the ground just inside the gates to Parliament.

    Is it Boris Johnson?
    Don’t think so.

    Earlier on this morning there was a Brexit supporter telling me that the EU is the source of all fornication and sodomy in the world and that’s why we should Leave.

    Theresa May is a traitor as well apparently.
    So you got to meet Jeremy Corbyn?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,389

    Sean_F said:

    Armed Police are pinning someone to the ground just inside the gates to Parliament.

    Is it Boris Johnson?
    Don’t think so.

    Earlier on this morning there was a Brexit supporter telling me that the EU is the source of all fornication and sodomy in the world and that’s why we should Leave.

    Theresa May is a traitor as well apparently.
    That goes without saying.
This discussion has been closed.