Armed Police are pinning someone to the ground just inside the gates to Parliament.
Is it Boris Johnson?
Don’t think so.
Earlier on this morning there was a Brexit supporter telling me that the EU is the source of all fornication and sodomy in the world and that’s why we should Leave.
The ERG need to fuck off and form their own party. They are the Militant tendency of the Tory party. Steve Baker sounded utterly odious on the Today programme this morning.
Any MP who by their shenanigans now lands us in a No Deal Brexit is an utter disgrace. Tarring, feathering and being sent to some remote Atlantic island to count weeds is what they deserve.
I normally consider you one of our more balanced psoters. You now have Brexit fever,
I think we are all #brexitfever now. With maybe Theresa May being the exception.
personally I feel remarkably relaxed about the whole thing. If you stand back and clear your head you soon realise there are nucj more important things in life.
So a shrug of the shoulders and an oh well then if we end up Remaining? It’s a healthy attitude that I suspect many share.
And then good luck getting their support for anything you propose in the future.
Their choice. We are a democracy, after all.
Not if they refuse to implement a democratic vote we aren't.
They = 650 individuals who can’t agree on how to implement the democratic vote. The ERG have a leave option on the table which they won’t accept, other Leave supporters will. What can a democracy do in such circumstances except ask the people again?
Parliament has two options on the table: accept the deal or leave with no deal. They don't need to ask the people to choose between these two.
Parliament is answerable to the people. It can do as it wishes within that constraint.
Yes, and the people have been clear both in a national referendum (52%) and a subsequent general election (85%) what they expect.
Did they vote for the Labour or Tory Brexit? They’re getting neither.
They voted for parties promising to deliver the referendum result. Parliament has two options on the table to follow through on this.
This is the main reason we must leave and the EU would be best advised to not encourage remain. We constantly complain we don't like things, they constantly moan we just don't understand them and we've gotten something great. Given the one agreed point is we don't understand each other remaining would be hugely problematic. They'll never listen to our concerns because they'll just say we don't understand.
Seems the vote wont happen now until 21st Jan, unless I have misunderstood.
This is way way beyond a joke now. This is just about spending another few days in Downing Street.
That's the absolute latest it can happen under the Withdrawal Act.
The government may choose (or be forced by some mechanism) to hold it before then.
Is that correct? My reading of the legislation is that 21st January is only relevant if there isn't a deal agreed in principle between HMG and the EU on that date. But there is such a deal until such time as Parliament votes it down.
Everyone pre- and post-vote told us how easy and how many trade deals would be.
If we've learned anything at all, it's that Brexiteers have no idea whatsoever how international trade works.
Trying to think of a comparison, kind of thought of cloud computing. What you do is you essentially outsource the grunt of your IT services. You no longer maintain your independent email server and file server. When you do the sums, it offers quite a lot of savings, not all of them are immediately cashable. But it makes sense. However, someone points out that this is largely a one way process. Once you’ve done it, you’ll lose the capacity to do it for yourself, possibly forever, and even if the price is jacked up, it will still cost you more to get out and start up again. If you decide to try and reverse it, the longer you are part of the cloud, the more difficult it will be, and you’ll be starting afresh. Your staff will no longer have the skills to maintain their own infrastructure. Our scabby old exchange server can’t cope with what we all need and got used to.
We’ve essentially deskilled ourserlves by sub contracting out all our trade negotiations for forty years. It looked easy when we saw it all done on our behalf. We are going to have to learn them again, or opt back into the cloud comfort of the customs union.
Not quite - you should be outsourcing stuff like email as it's a faff to do yourself and it's better to leave it to people who did it day in, day out every hour of their day. That was even the justification before cloud let alone security became so prominent - nowadays when a firm isn't in the cloud my first thought is when will the data be hacked.
And that's valid for the Europe argument as well - we simply aren't big enough to get the concessions that Europe could get when negotiation as we are about to discover. That isn't to say that I think we should remain Germany's refusal to subsidise / support poorer regions is going to come home to roost at some point and it's going to be messy.
Lord Ashcroft's polling on the deal is pretty damning:
May's campaign to selll the deal has only turned the UK even further against the deal. Now a majority of Tories think remain is a better choice then her deal.
Holy Hell.
At some point people here might have to start believing that when Leavers say they think this deal is worse than Remain, they mean it
Who on earth are the people who think Khan is doing well?
I quite like Khan.
Cons:
Recent increase in knife crime
Neutral:
Crossrail delays a bit meh
Pros:
Trains/busses run on time No riots Housing situation improving (more by luck than judgment, but still) Not a complete embarassment Would far prefer him to the hard left Lets the city get on with it
Bercow needs to cool it. He's not a comedian and McDonnell is perfect able to do his job without Bercow trying to do it for him.
Andrea Leadsom made (another) serious error today when she let Bercow know he's getting under her skin by complaining about him, but they both know has neither the numbers or the will to do anything about it.
Which is just going to spur Bercow on to be even more, uh, unhelpful to her cause.
What is the point in a Commons VONC when it is known that all DUP and Tory MPs will express their confidence in the government, other than helping four minor parties look good? Much better to have a vote to censure the government on how rubbish its handling of the meaningful vote debate has been - the DUP, Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve etc. could vote with Labour - and perhaps to force a meaningful vote today or tomorrow, which could bring Theresa May down. Corbyn is playing his hand, which is much weaker than many believe, quite well. May, Lidington, Leadsom and the government aren't going to like the debate on Labour's SO24 motion.
Why have they postponed the cabinet meeting from today to tomorrow?
Lord Ashcroft's polling on the deal is pretty damning:
May's campaign to selll the deal has only turned the UK even further against the deal. Now a majority of Tories think remain is a better choice then her deal.
Holy Hell.
At some point people here might have to start believing that when Leavers say they think this deal is worse than Remain, they mean it
I cannot wait for Rees Moggs to campaign for remain.
What is the point in a Commons VONC when it is known that all DUP and Tory MPs will express their confidence in the government, other than helping four minor parties look good?
The point is that it puts Corbyn on the spot about backing a second referendum. At the moment he's hiding behind the formula of wanting a general election so he can take over and renegotiate.
Lord Ashcroft's polling on the deal is pretty damning:
May's campaign to selll the deal has only turned the UK even further against the deal. Now a majority of Tories think remain is a better choice then her deal.
So actually once you exclude the Grabcoque bias by a clear 6% margin voters overall think the Deal is still better than leaving with No Deal on that Ashcroft poll but by a 31% margin voters think it is worse than Remaining in the EU. So quite clearly if this Deal is rejected and No Deal is the alternative a large majority of voters would prefer to cancel Brexit and stay in the EU.
Note this poll is of 2017 Tory voters not current Tory voters so includes those now voting UKIP
Seems the vote wont happen now until 21st Jan, unless I have misunderstood.
This is way way beyond a joke now. This is just about spending another few days in Downing Street.
That's the absolute latest it can happen under the Withdrawal Act.
The government may choose (or be forced by some mechanism) to hold it before then.
Is that correct? My reading of the legislation is that 21st January is only relevant if there isn't a deal agreed in principle between HMG and the EU on that date. But there is such a deal until such time as Parliament votes it down.
So there was a bit of a tussle on this between the Speaker's Office and the Commons Office on Twitter, but the upshot of it is that Mr Speaker's view prevailed.
Since the MV was pulled, the provisions in the Withdrawal Act relating to what must happen if no deal is agreed, are still considered in force. The Act says that in the event of no deal being agreed, the Prime Minister must make a statement in the house on or before the 21st January.
Who on earth are the people who think Khan is doing well?
I quite like Khan.
Cons:
Recent increase in knife crime
Neutral:
Crossrail delays a bit meh
Pros:
Trains/busses run on time No riots Housing situation improving (more by luck than judgment, but still) Not a complete embarassment Would far prefer him to the hard left Lets the city get on with it
"Trains/buses run on time" except when the tube is on strike again (he promised zero days of strikes) and fares have gone up every year (he pledged "Londoners won't pay a penny more for their travel in 2020").
What is the point in a Commons VONC when it is known that all DUP and Tory MPs will express their confidence in the government, other than helping four minor parties look good?
The point is that it puts Corbyn on the spot about backing a second referendum. At the moment he's hiding behind the formula of wanting a general election so he can take over and renegotiate.
But would it put him on the spot? In their letter they refer to how he could table another MONC later.
If a confidence vote means her resigning but the Tories not having to leave government I’d have thought she’d be nailed on to lose.
It's a vote of confidence in the government, not the PM. But yes, losing it would not necessarily mean the Tories having to leave government, they'd have 14 days to put together a government under a different PM (or indeed under Theresa May) which would then have to win a second vote of confidence.
Why are Labour running scared?
There's no way TMay wins a confidence vote.
There are, I would say, at least 30-40 Tories prepared bring down the government (roughly the same people who wrote to Brady). And a 0% chance more than three Labour MPs (or rather elected as Labour MPs) vote to sustain her.
Maybe not 30-40, but I would not be surprised if Conservative MPs refused to support the government in a VONC. They'd be ending their careers, but we're not dealing with very rational people.
So, Corbyn ought to give it a try.
Are they ending their careers though? they think May is broken. They think there is a candidate in the Tory party that can turn things around.
If any conservative voted against the party in a vnoc in the government they would be instantly deselected for any future election
Probably so but some may feel they won't be standing at the next election anyway. Ken Clarke?
This is the main reason we must leave and the EU would be best advised to not encourage remain. We constantly complain we don't like things, they constantly moan we just don't understand them and we've gotten something great. Given the one agreed point is we don't understand each other remaining would be hugely problematic. They'll never listen to our concerns because they'll just say we don't understand.
Which is why Remain on existing terms is the crapiest option. It cements in all the resentments of those in other nations who think we have special treatment and all those in our nation who see the EU working for the benefit of the committed core, not the indifferent difficult outsider.
Our only two sensible options are out, sever the umbilical cord or completely in, Shengen, Euro the whole lot.
Compromises will store up discontent, angst and aggravation for the us to discuss over the next twenty years.
The ERG need to fuck off and form their own party. They are the Militant tendency of the Tory party. Steve Baker sounded utterly odious on the Today programme this morning.
Any MP who by their shenanigans now lands us in a No Deal Brexit is an utter disgrace. Tarring, feathering and being sent to some remote Atlantic island to count weeds is what they deserve.
I normally consider you one of our more balanced psoters. You now have Brexit fever,
I think we are all #brexitfever now. With maybe Theresa May being the exception.
personally I feel remarkably relaxed about the whole thing. If you stand back and clear your head you soon realise there are nucj more important things in life.
So a shrug of the shoulders and an oh well then if we end up Remaining? It’s a healthy attitude that I suspect many share.
And then good luck getting their support for anything you propose in the future.
Their choice. We are a democracy, after all.
Not if they refuse to implement a democratic vote we aren't.
They = 650 individuals who can’t agree on how to implement the democratic vote. The ERG have a leave option on the table which they won’t accept, other Leave supporters will. What can a democracy do in such circumstances except ask the people again?
Parliament has two options on the table: accept the deal or leave with no deal. They don't need to ask the people to choose between these two.
Parliament is answerable to the people. It can do as it wishes within that constraint.
Yes, and the people have been clear both in a national referendum (52%) and a subsequent general election (85%) what they expect.
Did they vote for the Labour or Tory Brexit? They’re getting neither.
They voted for parties promising to deliver the referendum result. Parliament has two options on the table to follow through on this.
The majority of voters in 2017 backed parties which rejected a No Deal Brexit, so that would clearly not have a mandate.
Short of a referendum, I think that's quite likely where we're going to end up. Not satisfactory at all, but if the Corbyn/ERG axis tries to sabotage the process, so be it.
Lord Ashcroft's polling on the deal is pretty damning:
May's campaign to selll the deal has only turned the UK even further against the deal. Now a majority of Tories think remain is a better choice then her deal.
So actually once you exclude the Grabcoque bias by a clear 6% margin voters overall think the Deal is still better than leaving with No Deal on that Ashcroft poll but by a 31% margin voters think it is worse than Remaining in the EU. So quite clearly if this Deal is rejected and No Deal is the alternative a large majority of voters would prefer to cancel Brexit and stay in the EU
*My* bias? It's Lord Ashcroft's poll, and the bias of whoever answered the questions.
But look at the direction of travel. In two weeks, May turned an additional 7% of people against the deal!
Also, please note that, thanks to May's tireless efforts to sell the deal, every cohort (Labour/Tory/Remain/Leave) now prefer Remain to May's deal.
May's lack of talent for convincing people is truly magnificent.
Nope. Time will not help parliament decide what it wants, it has had time and more will not make the equation simpler. He just wants to remain by default through a revocation.
Parliament can make a decision, which may be to revoke. It doesn't need to revoke first unless one is an arch remainer.
I am afraid those are your projections based on your delusions not those of the rest of Europe. In the last fortnight I have spoken with Dutch, Norwegians, French, Germans and Italians and in every single case the overwhelming comment has been to ask why there is a chance we might not leave when we voted to Leave. And again this has, in every case, been accompanied by a comment about politicians not wanting to do what the people asked.
I am afraid the only people bring viewed as nasty and deluded by the Europeans I talk to are this trying to stop Brexit.
I think it depends who you talk to. My European colleagues (Spain, Netherlands, Norway, Switzerland, France, Italy) largely think we won't leave, as in their minds it would just be so obviously damaging to do so. They keep asking me when referendum II is scheduled!
As an aside - this seems like a good moment to remind you of a bet we made together which could potentially become live soon. It's a bit long-winded but:
If Corbyn wins a majority and is in government for a minimum of two years and the economy is not already in recession before he takes over:
Then if there is a recession whilst he is PM I will pay £20 to a charity of your choice. If there is no recession, you will pay £20 to a charity of my choice. If any of the initial clauses don't hold then bet is void.
Nope. Time will not help parliament decide what it wants, it has had time and more will not make the equation simpler. He just wants to remain by default through a revocation.
Parliament can make a decision, which may be to revoke. It doesn't need to revoke first unless one is an arch remainer.
Parliament has decided what it wants. It wants to vote against May's deal...
What is the point in a Commons VONC when it is known that all DUP and Tory MPs will express their confidence in the government, other than helping four minor parties look good? Much better to have a vote to censure the government on how rubbish its handling of the meaningful vote debate has been - the DUP, Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve etc. could vote with Labour - and perhaps to force a meaningful vote today or tomorrow, which could bring Theresa May down. Corbyn is playing his hand, which is much weaker than many believe, quite well. May, Lidington, Leadsom and the government aren't going to like the debate on Labour's SO24 motion.
Why have they postponed the cabinet meeting from today to tomorrow?
Presumably cos Tessie is abroad. Not a good time to gather a Cabinet.
Boris is near certain to run, but he's very divisive. Davis may sit it out (he's knocking on a bit). McVey is likely to run, not sure about Raab.
There's also the likes of Hunt, Javid, Mordaunt to consider.
If May goes down she likely takes all the Cabinet Deal backers with her and the membership will almost certainly back whichever No Deal candidate of Davis, Boris, Raab or McVey ends in the final two
I hate to break it to you HYUFD, but if May is replaced then I can't see that we'd have time for a membership vote.
I hate to break it to you Mortimer but if May is replaced the ERG will only accept a coronation for a No Dealer otherwise they will put up a candidate and force a membership vote
There isn’t time for a membership vote. If needs be, I fully suspect the party board will just change the rules.
There is under the rules whether you like it or not and the party board cannot just change the rules on a whim without the voluntary party's approval
Nope. Time will not help parliament decide what it wants, it has had time and more will not make the equation simpler. He just wants to remain by default through a revocation.
Parliament can make a decision, which may be to revoke. It doesn't need to revoke first unless one is an arch remainer.
Parliament has decided what it wants. It wants to vote against May's deal...
Fine. Not my preferred outcome but they don't need more time to decide if they want that, deal, remain or something else. Major is very transparent in his aim there as there's no reason to think giving more road to kick the can down helps.
Nope. Time will not help parliament decide what it wants, it has had time and more will not make the equation simpler. He just wants to remain by default through a revocation.
Parliament can make a decision, which may be to revoke. It doesn't need to revoke first unless one is an arch remainer.
Parliament has decided what it wants. It wants to vote against May's deal...
Fine. Not my preferred outcome but they don't need more time to decide if they want that, deal, remain or something else. Major is very transparent in his aim there as there's no reason to think giving more road to kick the can down helps.
I cannot find a single person, on here or anywhere, who thinks this latest bit of displacement activity is not an absurd act of futile folly.
You'd think there'd be somebody who might be prepared to say there's a chance of Mrs May's attempts to renegotiate Mrs May's *final* and *best possible* deal will end in anything other than ignominy.
But this seems to be the one time everyone is completely united. This is *pointless*.
The enemies of Corbyn's Labour (especially the alt-Centrists amongst them) seem desperately unhappy that JC refuses to be drawn into acting prematurely on things. Just as he refused to be pointlessly and damagingly bounced into an early commitment and shutting down of room to manoeuvre on Brexit policy, which would have only been of advantage to the Tories and whatever's left of the Lib Dems (aka the increasingly deranged FBPE crowd), similarly keeping the powder dry on a VONC makes complete sense at the moment. Labour's policy of masterful inaction, only to strike at just the right moment, is by far the most sensible one, hence why it has garnered years of concern trolling from those desperate to back Corbyn into a corner.
Lord Ashcroft's polling on the deal is pretty damning:
May's campaign to selll the deal has only turned the UK even further against the deal. Now a majority of Tories think remain is a better choice then her deal.
So actually once you exclude the Grabcoque bias by a clear 6% margin voters overall think the Deal is still better than leaving with No Deal on that Ashcroft poll but by a 31% margin voters think it is worse than Remaining in the EU. So quite clearly if this Deal is rejected and No Deal is the alternative a large majority of voters would prefer to cancel Brexit and stay in the EU
*My* bias? It's Lord Ashcroft's poll, and the bias of whoever answered the questions.
But look at the direction of travel. In two weeks, May turned an additional 7% of people against the deal!
Also, please note that, thanks to May's tireless efforts to sell the deal, every cohort (Labour/Tory/Remain/Leave) now prefer Remain to May's deal.
May's lack of talent for convincing people is truly magnificent.
Given the attempts of the ERG and the opposition to undermine the Deal at every turn I am surprised the Deal is still polling this high. However as this poll and every other poll confirms more voters prefer the Deal to Remain than No Deal to Remain so if No Deal ends up the only Leave option left either Brexit being cancelled after EUref2 or pure BINO permanent Single Market and Customs Union looks likely
What is the point in a Commons VONC when it is known that all DUP and Tory MPs will express their confidence in the government, other than helping four minor parties look good? Much better to have a vote to censure the government on how rubbish its handling of the meaningful vote debate has been - the DUP, Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve etc. could vote with Labour - and perhaps to force a meaningful vote today or tomorrow, which could bring Theresa May down. Corbyn is playing his hand, which is much weaker than many believe, quite well. May, Lidington, Leadsom and the government aren't going to like the debate on Labour's SO24 motion.
Why have they postponed the cabinet meeting from today to tomorrow?
Presumably cos Tessie is abroad. Not a good time to gather a Cabinet.
Who on earth are the people who think Khan is doing well?
I quite like Khan.
Cons:
Recent increase in knife crime
Neutral:
Crossrail delays a bit meh
Pros:
Trains/busses run on time No riots Housing situation improving (more by luck than judgment, but still) Not a complete embarassment Would far prefer him to the hard left Lets the city get on with it
"Trains/buses run on time" except when the tube is on strike again (he promised zero days of strikes) and fares have gone up every year (he pledged "Londoners won't pay a penny more for their travel in 2020").
I think Khan was wrong to promise a freeze, but I am happy with the cost of travel.
Perhaps it's my memory, but I think the overall level of strikes is similar to Boris. Again, the promise was wrong. The delivery is fine.
The ERG need to fuck off and form their own party. They are the Militant tendency of the Tory party. Steve Baker sounded utterly odious on the Today programme this morning.
Any MP who by their shenanigans now lands us in a No Deal Brexit is an utter disgrace. Tarring, feathering and being sent to some remote Atlantic island to count weeds is what they deserve.
I normally consider you one of our more balanced psoters. You now have Brexit fever,
I think we are all #brexitfever now. With maybe Theresa May being the exception.
personally I feel remarkably relaxed about the whole thing. If you stand back and clear your head you soon realise there are nucj more important things in life.
So a shrug of the shoulders and an oh well then if we end up Remaining? It’s a healthy attitude that I suspect many share.
And then good luck getting their support for anything you propose in the future.
Their choice. We are a democracy, after all.
Not if they refuse to implement a democratic vote we aren't.
They = 650 individuals who can’t agree on how to implement the democratic vote. The ERG have a leave option on the table which they won’t accept, other Leave supporters will. What can a democracy do in such circumstances except ask the people again?
Parliament has two options on the table: accept the deal or leave with no deal. They don't need to ask the people to choose between these two.
Parliament is answerable to the people. It can do as it wishes within that constraint.
Yes, and the people have been clear both in a national referendum (52%) and a subsequent general election (85%) what they expect.
Did they vote for the Labour or Tory Brexit? They’re getting neither.
They voted for parties promising to deliver the referendum result. Parliament has two options on the table to follow through on this.
The majority of voters in 2017 backed parties which rejected a No Deal Brexit, so that would clearly not have a mandate.
In which case the deal should pass easily.
Which it would, if only Corbyn would stop playing silly games.
What is the point in a Commons VONC when it is known that all DUP and Tory MPs will express their confidence in the government, other than helping four minor parties look good? Much better to have a vote to censure the government on how rubbish its handling of the meaningful vote debate has been - the DUP, Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve etc. could vote with Labour - and perhaps to force a meaningful vote today or tomorrow, which could bring Theresa May down. Corbyn is playing his hand, which is much weaker than many believe, quite well. May, Lidington, Leadsom and the government aren't going to like the debate on Labour's SO24 motion.
Why have they postponed the cabinet meeting from today to tomorrow?
Presumably cos Tessie is abroad. Not a good time to gather a Cabinet.
How much notice does a VONC need ?
The process is almost entirely up to Brady. However, he is an honourable man, and I cannot imagine he'd announce it while she was out of the country. He'd wait till she was back, and tell Mrs May first.
In the interests of decorum, I also assume he'll allow May 1-2 days campaigning time to make her case before calling the vote.
What is the point in a Commons VONC when it is known that all DUP and Tory MPs will express their confidence in the government, other than helping four minor parties look good? Much better to have a vote to censure the government on how rubbish its handling of the meaningful vote debate has been - the DUP, Anna Soubry and Dominic Grieve etc. could vote with Labour - and perhaps to force a meaningful vote today or tomorrow, which could bring Theresa May down. Corbyn is playing his hand, which is much weaker than many believe, quite well. May, Lidington, Leadsom and the government aren't going to like the debate on Labour's SO24 motion.
Why have they postponed the cabinet meeting from today to tomorrow?
Presumably cos Tessie is abroad. Not a good time to gather a Cabinet.
How much notice does a VONC need ?
The process is almost entirely up to Brady. However, he is an honourable man, and I cannot imagine he'd announce it while she was out of the country. He'd wait till she was back, and tell Mrs May first.
In the interests of decorum, I also assume he'll allow May 1-2 days campaigning time to make her case before calling the vote.
I meant a Blackford/Corbyn Gov't VONC, not the Brady leader one
The FTPA specifices no restrictions on who may move a motion of no confidence. Barring any guidance to the contrary from Mr Speaker, I'd assume that yes, he could.
For what it's worth, I've backed no second referendum on Ladbrokes at 1.75 (marginal improvement due to boost). Already backed a second vote, back in November last year, at 6.5, so green either way.
Lord Ashcroft's polling on the deal is pretty damning:
May's campaign to selll the deal has only turned the UK even further against the deal. Now a majority of Tories think remain is a better choice then her deal.
So actually once you exclude the Grabcoque bias by a clear 6% margin voters overall think the Deal is still better than leaving with No Deal on that Ashcroft poll but by a 31% margin voters think it is worse than Remaining in the EU. So quite clearly if this Deal is rejected and No Deal is the alternative a large majority of voters would prefer to cancel Brexit and stay in the EU.
Note this poll is of 2017 Tory voters not current Tory voters so includes those now voting UKIP
The Ashcroft poll also has voters two preferred options going forward first a Remain v Deal referendum, second a Deal v Remain v No Deal referendum.
Who on earth are the people who think Khan is doing well?
I quite like Khan.
Cons:
Recent increase in knife crime
Neutral:
Crossrail delays a bit meh
Pros:
Trains/busses run on time No riots Housing situation improving (more by luck than judgment, but still) Not a complete embarassment Would far prefer him to the hard left Lets the city get on with it
"Trains/buses run on time" except when the tube is on strike again (he promised zero days of strikes) and fares have gone up every year (he pledged "Londoners won't pay a penny more for their travel in 2020").
I think Khan was wrong to promise a freeze, but I am happy with the cost of travel.
Perhaps it's my memory, but I think the overall level of strikes is similar to Boris. Again, the promise was wrong. The delivery is fine.
Happy with the fares you are paying - they are extortionate and far higher than comparable capital and major cities.
The problem of course with Transport for London over the years is that it has been run for the benefit of the employees first not the users who pay for the inflation busting pay rises and possibly the most generous mass pension scheme in the UK which requires hundreds of millions a year in our money to bankroll it.
Who else still has a final salary scheme (including for new contributions), benefits rising by RPI rather than CPI, retirement on full benefits without deduction at 60 when other public sector schemes match SRA (with retirement possible at 50), an employer contribution rate approaching 36% - and a contribution since 2005 which is £1.7 billion higher than the local government scheme would have required and a contribution rate of only 5% even for the top bosses - less than half what comparable public sector schemes have. And it cannot be reformed without the approval of scheme members as its a private scheme legally albeit funded by the taxpayer via business rates, council tax and monopoly fares,
The ERG need to fuck off and form their own party. They are the Militant tendency of the Tory party. Steve Baker sounded utterly odious on the Today programme this morning.
Any MP who by their shenanigans now lands us in a No Deal Brexit is an utter disgrace. Tarring, feathering and being sent to some remote Atlantic island to count weeds is what they deserve.
I normally consider you one of our more balanced psoters. You now have Brexit fever,
I think we are all #brexitfever now. With maybe Theresa May being the exception.
personally I feel remarkably relaxed about the whole thing. If you stand back and clear your head you soon realise there are nucj more important things in life.
So a shrug of the shoulders and an oh well then if we end up Remaining? It’s a healthy attitude that I suspect many share.
And then good luck getting their support for anything you propose in the future.
Their choice. We are a democracy, after all.
Not if they refuse to implement a democratic vote we aren't.
They = 650 individuals who can’t agree on how to ask the people again?
Parliament has two options on the table: accept the deal or leave with no deal. They don't need to ask the people to choose between these two.
Parliament is answerable to the people. It can do as it wishes within that constraint.
Yes, and the people have been clear both in a national referendum (52%) and a subsequent general election (85%) what they expect.
Did they vote for the Labour or Tory Brexit? They’re getting neither.
They voted for parties promising to deliver the referendum result. Parliament has two options on the table to follow through on this.
The majority of voters in 2017 backed parties which rejected a No Deal Brexit, so that would clearly not have a mandate.
In which case the deal should pass easily.
Which it would, if only Corbyn would stop playing silly games.
But May’s deal is not the Brexit Labour promised. And therein lies the problem.
Lord Ashcroft's polling on the deal is pretty damning:
May's campaign to selll the deal has only turned the UK even further against the deal. Now a majority of Tories think remain is a better choice then her deal.
So actually once you exclude the Grabcoque bias by a clear 6% margin voters overall think the Deal is still better than leaving with No Deal on that Ashcroft poll but by a 31% margin voters think it is worse than Remaining in the EU. So quite clearly if this Deal is rejected and No Deal is the alternative a large majority of voters would prefer to cancel Brexit and stay in the EU.
Note this poll is of 2017 Tory voters not current Tory voters so includes those now voting UKIP
The Ashcroft poll also has voters two preferred options going forward first a Remain v Deal referendum, second a Deal v Remain v No Deal referendum.
It's a shame the woman squatting in number 10 refuses to support those options
I normally consider you one of our more balanced psoters. You now have Brexit fever,
I think we are all #brexitfever now. With maybe Theresa May being the exception.
personally I feel remarkably relaxed about the whole thing. If you stand back and clear your head you soon realise there are nucj more important things in life.
So a shrug of the shoulders and an oh well then if we end up Remaining? It’s a healthy attitude that I suspect many share.
And then good luck getting their support for anything you propose in the future.
Their choice. We are a democracy, after all.
Not if they refuse to implement a democratic vote we aren't.
They = 650 individuals who can’t agree on how to ask the people again?
Parliament has two options on the table: accept the deal or leave with no deal. They don't need to ask the people to choose between these two.
Parliament is answerable to the people. It can do as it wishes within that constraint.
Yes, and the people have been clear both in a national referendum (52%) and a subsequent general election (85%) what they expect.
Did they vote for the Labour or Tory Brexit? They’re getting neither.
They voted for parties promising to deliver the referendum result. Parliament has two options on the table to follow through on this.
The majority of voters in 2017 backed parties which rejected a No Deal Brexit, so that would clearly not have a mandate.
In which case the deal should pass easily.
Which it would, if only Corbyn would stop playing silly games.
But May’s deal is not the Brexit Labour promised. And therein lies the problem.
No, therein lies the excuse Corbyn is using for playing silly games.
Comments
And that's valid for the Europe argument as well - we simply aren't big enough to get the concessions that Europe could get when negotiation as we are about to discover. That isn't to say that I think we should remain Germany's refusal to subsidise / support poorer regions is going to come home to roost at some point and it's going to be messy.
Cons:
Recent increase in knife crime
Neutral:
Crossrail delays a bit meh
Pros:
Trains/busses run on time
No riots
Housing situation improving (more by luck than judgment, but still)
Not a complete embarassment
Would far prefer him to the hard left
Lets the city get on with it
Which is just going to spur Bercow on to be even more, uh, unhelpful to her cause.
Go hide in an office.
Why have they postponed the cabinet meeting from today to tomorrow?
I’ve made sure my badge is on display and will be on display until I get to Lime Street station this evening.
Note this poll is of 2017 Tory voters not current Tory voters so includes those now voting UKIP
Since the MV was pulled, the provisions in the Withdrawal Act relating to what must happen if no deal is agreed, are still considered in force. The Act says that in the event of no deal being agreed, the Prime Minister must make a statement in the house on or before the 21st January.
What May says and what May does are not necessarily things that bear much resemblance to one another.
Nearly every time I’ve been I’ve seen rats the size of cats.
https://twitter.com/edvaizey/status/1072465201734262784
Our only two sensible options are out, sever the umbilical cord or completely in, Shengen, Euro the whole lot.
Compromises will store up discontent, angst and aggravation for the us to discuss over the next twenty years.
Short of a referendum, I think that's quite likely where we're going to end up. Not satisfactory at all, but if the Corbyn/ERG axis tries to sabotage the process, so be it.
But look at the direction of travel. In two weeks, May turned an additional 7% of people against the deal!
Also, please note that, thanks to May's tireless efforts to sell the deal, every cohort (Labour/Tory/Remain/Leave) now prefer Remain to May's deal.
May's lack of talent for convincing people is truly magnificent.
Parliament can make a decision, which may be to revoke. It doesn't need to revoke first unless one is an arch remainer.
That's unusual.
I think Mormons shun caffeine. A life devoid of chocolate seems unnecessarily ascetic to me, but there we are.
As an aside - this seems like a good moment to remind you of a bet we made together which could potentially become live soon. It's a bit long-winded but:
If Corbyn wins a majority and is in government for a minimum of two years and the economy is not already in recession before he takes over:
Then if there is a recession whilst he is PM I will pay £20 to a charity of your choice.
If there is no recession, you will pay £20 to a charity of my choice.
If any of the initial clauses don't hold then bet is void.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/20/marfs-afternoon-cartoon-on-the-brexit-talks/
http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2018/12/11/20002-20181211ARTFIG00052-le-discours-d-emmanuel-macron-ne-calme-pas-les-blocages-en-region.php
You'd think there'd be somebody who might be prepared to say there's a chance of Mrs May's attempts to renegotiate Mrs May's *final* and *best possible* deal will end in anything other than ignominy.
But this seems to be the one time everyone is completely united. This is *pointless*.
How well do you think UK politicians have responded to the Brexit vote:
Total well: 4%
Total badly: 76%
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3gbelha0lj/BBC_181206_Brexit.pdf
Mrs May gets locked inside her car whilst trying to meet Mrs Merkel
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1072463780007809024
Perhaps it's my memory, but I think the overall level of strikes is similar to Boris. Again, the promise was wrong. The delivery is fine.
She merely delayed the decision on whether or not to vacate the vehicle.
He can't can he?
She's staying in the car until 21st Jan then.
Which it would, if only Corbyn would stop playing silly games.
In the interests of decorum, I also assume he'll allow May 1-2 days campaigning time to make her case before calling the vote.
wages rise at their fastest rate since 2008
Stuart Rose wasnt joking
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46520876
The problem of course with Transport for London over the years is that it has been run for the benefit of the employees first not the users who pay for the inflation busting pay rises and possibly the most generous mass pension scheme in the UK which requires hundreds of millions a year in our money to bankroll it.
Who else still has a final salary scheme (including for new contributions), benefits rising by RPI rather than CPI, retirement on full benefits without deduction at 60 when other public sector schemes match SRA (with retirement possible at 50), an employer contribution rate approaching 36% - and a contribution since 2005 which is £1.7 billion higher than the local government scheme would have required and a contribution rate of only 5% even for the top bosses - less than half what comparable public sector schemes have. And it cannot be reformed without the approval of scheme members as its a private scheme legally albeit funded by the taxpayer via business rates, council tax and monopoly fares,
The fares are high for a reason!
RCS look backwards they werent growing at all for most of that period
Newt. H. Read
An eyewitness told the BBC the man jumped over railings before being Tasered by police, but this has not been confirmed by police.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-46524839
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