politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the Brexit “deal” reaches another critical week the public
Comments
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Mark Stone saying the EU is looking nervously on.
They may find they have a whole lot of problems themselves0 -
A January election wouldn't be any better - parliament would be prorogued this side of Christmas and campaign teams would have to assess on which days over the festive season they chose not to knock on doors...Richard_Nabavi said:
Whilst that's probably right, there's no need for the VONC if there's a two-thirds majority for a GE.RochdalePioneers said:
A SPAD friend of mine points out that its not possible for a December election. Assume VONC later this week, then 14 days for no government to have the confidence of the house, then 25 working days for an election campaign.numbertwelve said:
Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.Morris_Dancer said:If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
It's January at the earliest0 -
I agree with that.Richard_Nabavi said:Actually Theresa May is, from a personal point of view, in rather a good position as regards her future reputation as PM (no really, don't fall off your chair quite yet). She's done her best, everyone agrees. She seems, against serious odds, to have come back with an outline deal. There are now two possibilities for her personally:
1. Success!
2. She can't get it past the cabinet and parliament. In which case she can with honour say she has done her duty and presented what she considers to be the best achievable outcome. She will then, I think, resign. Since colleagues don't like what she brought back, let someone else see if they can do better. (Hint: they can't - she'll be vindicated by subsequent events).
Anyone who thinks a potential PM Boris has the ability to do the necessary work for negotiating the UK leaving the EU is nuts. If May can't get a deal through I expect nobody can.0 -
So they're admitting to acts of war against the United States?williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/ericgeller/status/1062073460552294406TheScreamingEagles said:Mueller seeking more details on Nigel Farage
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Nothing to do with my fellow countrymen. This is all about a few members of the hard right who have spent the last two and a half years promising impossible outcomes and unachievable solutions while themselves being shielded from all the consequences of the lies they have told.MarqueeMark said:
Try because a majoirty of your fellow countrymen were sufficiently pissed off with what the Europhiles had been doing for 40 years on the sly, without asking the voters permission. Well done, Europhiles, for this utter shit-show.SouthamObserver said:Hard to describe the depth of the utter and total contempt I feel for the destructive, mendacious, ignorant Bucanneering Brexiteers and their bigoted, bowler-hatted Ulster mates for the utter shit-show they have inflicted on our country.
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If she does go saying she did her best, history could be quite kind to herglw said:
I agree with that.Richard_Nabavi said:Actually Theresa May is, from a personal point of view, in rather a good position as regards her future reputation as PM (no really, don't fall off your chair quite yet). She's done her best, everyone agrees. She seems, against serious odds, to have come back with an outline deal. There are now two possibilities for her personally:
1. Success!
2. She can't get it past the cabinet and parliament. In which case she can with honour say she has done her duty and presented what she considers to be the best achievable outcome. She will then, I think, resign. Since colleagues don't like what she brought back, let someone else see if they can do better. (Hint: they can't - she'll be vindicated by subsequent events).
Anyone who thinks a potential PM Boris has the ability to do the necessary work for negotiating the UK leaving the EU is nuts. If May can't get a deal through I expect nobody can.0 -
A majority of the Cabinet are Remainers, they will back the Deal, though Leadsom, Mourdaunt and McVey will probably resignBig_G_NorthWales said:
If the cabinet reject the deal, TM will have no option but to resign.Mortimer said:
If it doesn’t pass the cabinet, I suspect they’ll be giving her the marching orders.Morris_Dancer said:If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
However, where that leaves us goodness knows0 -
My leave vote has paid for itself a thousand times over as far as I am concerned.0
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old_labour said:
My leave vote has paid for itself a thousand times over as far as I am concerned.
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We could have an Advent manifesto, with a new policy behind every door.RochdalePioneers said:
A January election wouldn't be any better - parliament would be prorogued this side of Christmas and campaign teams would have to assess on which days over the festive season they chose not to knock on doors...Richard_Nabavi said:
Whilst that's probably right, there's no need for the VONC if there's a two-thirds majority for a GE.RochdalePioneers said:
A SPAD friend of mine points out that its not possible for a December election. Assume VONC later this week, then 14 days for no government to have the confidence of the house, then 25 working days for an election campaign.numbertwelve said:
Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.Morris_Dancer said:If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
It's January at the earliest0 -
You haven't had the bill yet.old_labour said:My leave vote has paid for itself a thousand times over as far as I am concerned.
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I agree glad to hear T May has done a deal , I wish her and the country all the best.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If she does go saying she did her best, history could be quite kind to herglw said:
I agree with that.Richard_Nabavi said:Actually Theresa May is, from a personal point of view, in rather a good position as regards her future reputation as PM (no really, don't fall off your chair quite yet). She's done her best, everyone agrees. She seems, against serious odds, to have come back with an outline deal. There are now two possibilities for her personally:
1. Success!
2. She can't get it past the cabinet and parliament. In which case she can with honour say she has done her duty and presented what she considers to be the best achievable outcome. She will then, I think, resign. Since colleagues don't like what she brought back, let someone else see if they can do better. (Hint: they can't - she'll be vindicated by subsequent events).
Anyone who thinks a potential PM Boris has the ability to do the necessary work for negotiating the UK leaving the EU is nuts. If May can't get a deal through I expect nobody can.
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No they won't.MarqueeMark said:
David Davis as acting PM....?Big_G_NorthWales said:
If the cabinet reject the deal, TM will have no option but to resign.Mortimer said:
If it doesn’t pass the cabinet, I suspect they’ll be giving her the marching orders.Morris_Dancer said:If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
However, where that leaves us goodness knows
The Tory Party can't have a snap election. They will be massacred. Even against Corbyn.
Despite what No Deal Brexit fanatics think the Tories are still level pegging or ahead in most polls even post Chequers and May's UK customs union plan. A few diehards have moved to UKIP but a few Labour Remainers have moved to the Tories.
The likeliest outcome of a general election tomorrow is another hung parliament, a Tory majority in England but Corbyn becomes PM with SNP confidence and supply and LD support on key legislation and agrees an almost identical deal with the EU to May's.
So if Parliament rejects May's Deal, Corbyn will likely end up agreeing it anyway0 -
Starmer doesn't want to see the proposals. His position is that the Tories are useless and Labour would do better. Having nothing to comment on helps him.Big_G_NorthWales said:Complete demonstration of how unsuited Boris is to office
He said 'According to these proposals, if the reports are correct, .....................
At least Keir Starmer says let us see the proposals first
Boris has to get his soundbites out fast to get into the News Cycle before No 10 starts parading loyal ministers walking out of No 10 this evening 1 by 1 saying that its marvellous. Even though they won't have read the document or the full legal advice.
I really wish we had Maggie right now0 -
Behind which door would the heavens proclaim NOTHING HAS CHANGED...?SandyRentool said:
We could have an Advent manifesto, with a new policy behind every door.RochdalePioneers said:
A January election wouldn't be any better - parliament would be prorogued this side of Christmas and campaign teams would have to assess on which days over the festive season they chose not to knock on doors...Richard_Nabavi said:
Whilst that's probably right, there's no need for the VONC if there's a two-thirds majority for a GE.RochdalePioneers said:
A SPAD friend of mine points out that its not possible for a December election. Assume VONC later this week, then 14 days for no government to have the confidence of the house, then 25 working days for an election campaign.numbertwelve said:
Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.Morris_Dancer said:If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
It's January at the earliest0 -
I'm not even a fan of May, but when you look at those who are her biggest critics you see nothing other than a bunch of grandstanding fools who put their politcal ambition above the good of the country.Big_G_NorthWales said:If she does go saying she did her best, history could be quite kind to her
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I'll settle for that.HYUFD said:
No they won't.MarqueeMark said:
David Davis as acting PM....?Big_G_NorthWales said:
If the cabinet reject the deal, TM will have no option but to resign.Mortimer said:
If it doesn’t pass the cabinet, I suspect they’ll be giving her the marching orders.Morris_Dancer said:If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
However, where that leaves us goodness knows
The Tory Party can't have a snap election. They will be massacred. Even against Corbyn.
Despite what No Deal Brexit fanatics think the Tories are still level pegging or ahead in most polls even post Chequers and May's UK customs union plan. A few diehards have moved to UKIP but a few Labour Remainers have moved to the Tories.
The likeliest outcome of a general election tomorrow is another hung parliament, a Tory majoroty in England but Corbyn becomes PM with SNP confidence and supply and LD support on key legislation and agrees an almost identical deal with the EU to May's.
T
So if Parliament rejects May's Deal, Corbyn will likely end up agreeing it anyway
Then once Brexit is out of the way we can crack on with all of the proper Socialist stuff and make the country a better place.0 -
Mr. glw, Arcadius and Honorius loathed one another. That didn't make either of them competent.0
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I agree on the likely outcome, give or take, but I think the current polling position would be out the window if a December election were called in an atmosphere of chaos. The, er, natural ceiling of Corbyn's support might limit the damage to stop it being a rout, but the Tories would put at risk a big chunk of "not bothered as long as they're competent" support which probably saved them last year.HYUFD said:
No they won't.MarqueeMark said:
David Davis as acting PM....?Big_G_NorthWales said:
If the cabinet reject the deal, TM will have no option but to resign.Mortimer said:
If it doesn’t pass the cabinet, I suspect they’ll be giving her the marching orders.Morris_Dancer said:If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
However, where that leaves us goodness knows
The Tory Party can't have a snap election. They will be massacred. Even against Corbyn.
Despite what fanatics like you think the Tories are still level pegging or ahead in most polls even post Chequers and May's UK customs union plan. A few diehards have moved to UKIP but a few Labour Remainers have moved to the Tories.
The likeliest outcome of a general election tomorrow is another hung parliament, a Tory majoroty in England but Corbyn becomes PM with SNP confidence and supply and LD support on key legislation and agrees an almost identical deal with the EU to May's.
So if Parliament rejects May's Deal, Corbyn will likely end up agreeing it anyway0 -
Anyone care to offer a translation of poloroxoanstgey, please?RochdalePioneers said:This is going to be top quality entertainment. What's the point in a technical agreement by diplomats if ihe poloroxoanstgey work for are so bitterly divided that the PM refuses to show them the legal advice and needs to plead with them one by one?
How many cabinet resignations can she survive?
Good evening, everybody.0 -
If there is an election it will not be before xmasHarris_Tweed said:
I agree on the likely outcome, give or take, but I think the current polling position would be out the window if a December election were called in an atmosphere of chaos. The, er, natural ceiling of Corbyn's support might limit the damage to stop it being a rout, but the Tories would put at risk a big chunk of "not bothered as long as they're competent" support which probably saved them last year.HYUFD said:
No they won't.MarqueeMark said:
David Davis as acting PM....?Big_G_NorthWales said:
If the cabinet reject the deal, TM will have no option but to resign.Mortimer said:
If it doesn’t pass the cabinet, I suspect they’ll be giving her the marching orders.Morris_Dancer said:If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
However, where that leaves us goodness knows
The Tory Party can't have a snap election. They will be massacred. Even against Corbyn.
Despite what fanatics like you think the Tories are still level pegging or ahead in most polls even post Chequers and May's UK customs union plan. A few diehards have moved to UKIP but a few Labour Remainers have moved to the Tories.
The likeliest outcome of a general election tomorrow is another hung parliament, a Tory majoroty in England but Corbyn becomes PM with SNP confidence and supply and LD support on key legislation and agrees an almost identical deal with the EU to May's.
So if Parliament rejects May's Deal, Corbyn will likely end up agreeing it anyway0 -
Stop this, they'll never have a GE during the period of dark evenings. Brenda from Bristol would go absolutely bananas.RochdalePioneers said:
Behind which door would the heavens proclaim NOTHING HAS CHANGED...?SandyRentool said:
We could have an Advent manifesto, with a new policy behind every door.RochdalePioneers said:
A January election wouldn't be any better - parliament would be prorogued this side of Christmas and campaign teams would have to assess on which days over the festive season they chose not to knock on doors...Richard_Nabavi said:
Whilst that's probably right, there's no need for the VONC if there's a two-thirds majority for a GE.RochdalePioneers said:
A SPAD friend of mine points out that its not possible for a December election. Assume VONC later this week, then 14 days for no government to have the confidence of the house, then 25 working days for an election campaign.numbertwelve said:
Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.Morris_Dancer said:If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
It's January at the earliest
Feb 28th at the very earliest.0 -
Covfefe?AnneJGP said:
Anyone care to offer a translation of poloroxoanstgey, please?RochdalePioneers said:This is going to be top quality entertainment. What's the point in a technical agreement by diplomats if ihe poloroxoanstgey work for are so bitterly divided that the PM refuses to show them the legal advice and needs to plead with them one by one?
How many cabinet resignations can she survive?
Good evening, everybody.0 -
Thank goodness there is now something that parliament can just vote down already and get this stage of crap over with. Election in Feb/March I imagine.
Not like he cares about much else, and he has rather been upstaged by his brother in recent days.ExiledInScotland said:
Starmer doesn't want to see the proposals. His position is that the Tories are useless and Labour would do better. Having nothing to comment on helps him.Big_G_NorthWales said:Complete demonstration of how unsuited Boris is to office
He said 'According to these proposals, if the reports are correct, .....................
At least Keir Starmer says let us see the proposals first
Boris has to get his soundbites out fast to get into the News Cycle0 -
I have had the pleasure of seeing Cameron, Clegg, Osborne and Alexander driven out of British politics, and the cherry on the cake is Clegg out of the country as well.Richard_Nabavi said:
You haven't had the bill yet.old_labour said:My leave vote has paid for itself a thousand times over as far as I am concerned.
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Good evening, Miss JGP.0
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I suspect it's typoese or perhaps autocorrectomania.AnneJGP said:
Anyone care to offer a translation of poloroxoanstgey, please?RochdalePioneers said:This is going to be top quality entertainment. What's the point in a technical agreement by diplomats if ihe poloroxoanstgey work for are so bitterly divided that the PM refuses to show them the legal advice and needs to plead with them one by one?
How many cabinet resignations can she survive?
Good evening, everybody.0 -
So this deal was reached last night ? And not a word at Cabinet today ?
Till a journalist found out?
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Would business and the markets be willing to wait that long for some sort of certainty about the outcome of Brexit? I doubt it.kle4 said:Thank goodness there is now something that parliament can just vote down already and get this stage of crap over with. Election in Feb/March I imagine.
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I wonder if May has been having back channel talks with Labour leavers and/or members of the PLP who hate Corbyn.0
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Right, I'm going home.
No sneaky cabinet resignations before I get off the tube please.0 -
Keep telling yourslef that. It makes you feel good, absolving you of the responsibility you properly share.SouthamObserver said:
Nothing to do with my fellow countrymen. This is all about a few members of the hard right who have spent the last two and a half years promising impossible outcomes and unachievable solutions while themselves being shielded from all the consequences of the lies they have told.MarqueeMark said:
Try because a majoirty of your fellow countrymen were sufficiently pissed off with what the Europhiles had been doing for 40 years on the sly, without asking the voters permission. Well done, Europhiles, for this utter shit-show.SouthamObserver said:Hard to describe the depth of the utter and total contempt I feel for the destructive, mendacious, ignorant Bucanneering Brexiteers and their bigoted, bowler-hatted Ulster mates for the utter shit-show they have inflicted on our country.
Brexit didn't hppen because a few people told porkies. It happened because people were pissed. And had been for a long time. ANd weren't listened to.
May's feeble attempt at implementing Brexit will do nothing to assuage that anger.0 -
Not any jounalist, but a foreign, Irish jounalist.dixiedean said:So this deal was reached last night ? And not a word at Cabinet today ?
Till a journalist found out?0 -
In the end, Labour will probably back the deal as a full CU is more or less guaranteed (which is what Corbyn wanted)
They'll aim to go into an early GE as the party who stopped a hard brexit and, once elected, will reopen the deal to make their changes (which the EU said can happen during the transition period)0 -
And what a competent bunch of politicians we are left with in their absence.old_labour said:
I have had the pleasure of seeing Cameron, Clegg, Osborne and Alexander driven out of British politics, and the cherry on the cake is Clegg out of the country as well.Richard_Nabavi said:
You haven't had the bill yet.old_labour said:My leave vote has paid for itself a thousand times over as far as I am concerned.
I loathe Clegg and Alexander for their destruction of the Lib Dems, but the Coalition was light-years better than this shower.0 -
Irish citizens are not foreigners. Ireland Act 1949.old_labour said:
Not any jounalist, but a foreign, Irish jounalist.dixiedean said:So this deal was reached last night ? And not a word at Cabinet today ?
Till a journalist found out?0 -
So four people (who can look after themselves) lose their job was somehow a price worth paying for the 100s of thousands who will lose theirs. I'm not sure I understand your values.old_labour said:
I have had the pleasure of seeing Cameron, Clegg, Osborne and Alexander driven out of British politics, and the cherry on the cake is Clegg out of the country as well.Richard_Nabavi said:
You haven't had the bill yet.old_labour said:My leave vote has paid for itself a thousand times over as far as I am concerned.
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I thought we knew this a few weeks ago. A group of 30-45 was reported, although not sure how many were being talked to.old_labour said:I wonder if May has been having back channel talks with Labour leavers and/or members of the PLP who hate Corbyn.
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What time is the first declaration - I mean resignation?0
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And all 4 of them now have much more lucrative careers.mwjfrome17 said:So four people (who can look after themselves) lose their job was somehow a price worth paying for the 100s of thousands who will lose theirs. I'm not sure I understand your values.
Yeah, that really showed them...0 -
IDS warns May 'her days are numbered' because of this Deal. IDS backed Leadsom in 2016 of course
https://mobile.twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/10624050037663621130 -
Tell that to Rees-Mogg.rpjs said:
Irish citizens are not foreigners. Ireland Act 1949.old_labour said:
Not any jounalist, but a foreign, Irish jounalist.dixiedean said:So this deal was reached last night ? And not a word at Cabinet today ?
Till a journalist found out?0 -
"politicians they" ?John_M said:
I suspect it's typoese or perhaps autocorrectomania.AnneJGP said:
Anyone care to offer a translation of poloroxoanstgey, please?RochdalePioneers said:This is going to be top quality entertainment. What's the point in a technical agreement by diplomats if ihe poloroxoanstgey work for are so bitterly divided that the PM refuses to show them the legal advice and needs to plead with them one by one?
How many cabinet resignations can she survive?
Good evening, everybody.0 -
Damn, Liam Fox has read the document remarkably quickly.0
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What fun! Carol singers followed by canvassers!Big_G_NorthWales said:
If there is an election it will not be before xmasHarris_Tweed said:
I agree on the likely outcome, give or take, but I think the current polling position would be out the window if a December election were called in an atmosphere of chaos. The, er, natural ceiling of Corbyn's support might limit the damage to stop it being a rout, but the Tories would put at risk a big chunk of "not bothered as long as they're competent" support which probably saved them last year.HYUFD said:
No they won't.MarqueeMark said:
David Davis as acting PM....?Big_G_NorthWales said:
If the cabinet reject the deal, TM will have no option but to resign.Mortimer said:
If it doesn’t pass the cabinet, I suspect they’ll be giving her the marching orders.Morris_Dancer said:If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
However, where that leaves us goodness knows
The Tory Party can't have a snap election. They will be massacred. Even against Corbyn.
Despite what fanatics like you think the Tories are still level pegging or ahead in most polls even post Chequers and May's UK customs union plan. A few diehards have moved to UKIP but a few Labour Remainers have moved to the Tories.
The likeliest outcome of a general election tomorrow is another hung parliament, a Tory majoroty in England but Corbyn becomes PM with SNP confidence and supply and LD support on key legislation and agrees an almost identical deal with the EU to May's.
So if Parliament rejects May's Deal, Corbyn will likely end up agreeing it anyway0 -
I was laughing at the Guardian's coverage of the economy today opining that increasing wages is a bad thing.mwjfrome17 said:
So four people (who can look after themselves) lose their job was somehow a price worth paying for the 100s of thousands who will lose theirs. I'm not sure I understand your values.old_labour said:
I have had the pleasure of seeing Cameron, Clegg, Osborne and Alexander driven out of British politics, and the cherry on the cake is Clegg out of the country as well.Richard_Nabavi said:
You haven't had the bill yet.old_labour said:My leave vote has paid for itself a thousand times over as far as I am concerned.
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To all those who said there wouldn't be a deal at the last minute - I told you so. It's how the EU handles crises. Whether it will get through Parliament is another story, but I suspect it will.
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If Labour vote against a deal and we leave with no deal - this being the alternative - will their voters ever actually forgive them?
Perversely, it would also massively help the Tories - by forcing them to deliver the no deal most of the voters are odd enough to want.
And @TheWhiteRabbit I hope you haven't forgotten our bet in light of recent comments...0 -
March 28th would be better!DeClare said:
Stop this, they'll never have a GE during the period of dark evenings. Brenda from Bristol would go absolutely bananas.RochdalePioneers said:
Behind which door would the heavens proclaim NOTHING HAS CHANGED...?SandyRentool said:
We could have an Advent manifesto, with a new policy behind every door.RochdalePioneers said:
A January election wouldn't be any better - parliament would be prorogued this side of Christmas and campaign teams would have to assess on which days over the festive season they chose not to knock on doors...Richard_Nabavi said:
Whilst that's probably right, there's no need for the VONC if there's a two-thirds majority for a GE.RochdalePioneers said:
A SPAD friend of mine points out that its not possible for a December election. Assume VONC later this week, then 14 days for no government to have the confidence of the house, then 25 working days for an election campaign.numbertwelve said:
Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.Morris_Dancer said:If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
It's January at the earliest
Feb 28th at the very earliest.0 -
Or face Leader of the Opposition Boris hammering 'cave in Corbyn'SandyRentool said:
I'll settle for that.HYUFD said:
No they won't.MarqueeMark said:
David Davis as acting PM....?Big_G_NorthWales said:
If the cabinet reject the deal, TM will have no option but to resign.Mortimer said:
If it doesn’t pass the cabinet, I suspect they’ll be giving her the marching orders.Morris_Dancer said:If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
However, where that leaves us goodness knows
The Tory Party can't have a snap election. They will be massacred. Even against Corbyn.
Despite what No Deal Brexit fanatics think the Tories are still level pegging or ahead in most polls even post Chequers and May's UK customs union plan. A few diehards have moved to UKIP but a few Labour Remainers have moved to the Tories.
The likeliest outcome of a general election tomorrow is another hung parliament, a Tory majoroty in England but Corbyn becomes PM with SNP confidence and supply and LD support on key legislation and agrees an almost identical deal with the EU to May's.
T
So if Parliament rejects May's Deal, Corbyn will likely end up agreeing it anyway
Then once Brexit is out of the way we can crack on with all of the proper Socialist stuff and make the country a better place.0 -
Interesting to see the usual suspects trying to get all their spin in early when they haven't got the foggiest clue what is in the deal.
What is most interesting to me is what the pro-European Labour MPs do. Corbyn, as a eurosceptic,, obviously has his interests aligned. He wants a crash out Brexit because he wants to leave, wants an opportunity to bring back state aid and he wants a crash to become PM. The rest of the Labour Party have a choice: on the one side they will get to power (albeit in a way that cements the hard left in power), on the other they will destroy any goodwill the EU has towards the UK and cause unnecessary harm to the people they went into politics to serve.0 -
You cannot take your money with you to the grave, but your reputation or lack of it lives on.Scott_P said:
And all 4 of them now have much more lucrative careers.mwjfrome17 said:So four people (who can look after themselves) lose their job was somehow a price worth paying for the 100s of thousands who will lose theirs. I'm not sure I understand your values.
Yeah, that really showed them...0 -
It is those voters who will never vote for Corbyn and who want a DealHarris_Tweed said:
I agree on the likely outcome, give or take, but I think the current polling position would be out the window if a December election were called in an atmosphere of chaos. The, er, natural ceiling of Corbyn's support might limit the damage to stop it being a rout, but the Tories would put at risk a big chunk of "not bothered as long as they're competent" support which probably saved them last year.HYUFD said:
No they won't.MarqueeMark said:
David Davis as acting PM....?Big_G_NorthWales said:
If the cabinet reject the deal, TM will have no option but to resign.Mortimer said:
If it doesn’t pass the cabinet, I suspect they’ll be giving her the marching orders.Morris_Dancer said:If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
However, where that leaves us goodness knows
The Tory Party can't have a snap election. They will be massacred. Even against Corbyn.
Despite what fanatics like you think the Tories are still level pegging or ahead in most polls even post Chequers and May's UK customs union plan. A few diehards have moved to UKIP but a few Labour Remainers have moved to the Tories.
The likeliest outcome of a general election tomorrow is another hung parliament, a Tory majoroty in England but Corbyn becomes PM with SNP confidence and supply and LD support on key legislation and agrees an almost identical deal with the EU to May's.
So if Parliament rejects May's Deal, Corbyn will likely end up agreeing it anyway0 -
What’s the disgraced national security risk said/done?Pulpstar said:Damn, Liam Fox has read the document remarkably quickly.
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Did not bother Jimmy Saville!old_labour said:
You cannot take your money with you to the grave, but your reputation or lack of it lives on.Scott_P said:
And all 4 of them now have much more lucrative careers.mwjfrome17 said:So four people (who can look after themselves) lose their job was somehow a price worth paying for the 100s of thousands who will lose theirs. I'm not sure I understand your values.
Yeah, that really showed them...0 -
Yes.. sorry.. for "December", read "rough shorthand for months which have more dark than light and in which people have not enough sun to fulfil their requirement for Vitamin D or generally go about their normal lives, let alone consider and act on the democratic needs of the country to sort out a policy question in which they lost interest 29 months ago"Big_G_NorthWales said:
If there is an election it will not be before xmasHarris_Tweed said:
I agree on the likely outcome, give or take, but I think the current polling position would be out the window if a December election were called in an atmosphere of chaos. The, er, natural ceiling of Corbyn's support might limit the damage to stop it being a rout, but the Tories would put at risk a big chunk of "not bothered as long as they're competent" support which probably saved them last year.HYUFD said:
No they won't.MarqueeMark said:
David Davis as acting PM....?Big_G_NorthWales said:
If the cabinet reject the deal, TM will have no option but to resign.Mortimer said:
If it doesn’t pass the cabinet, I suspect they’ll be giving her the marching orders.Morris_Dancer said:If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
However, where that leaves us goodness knows
The Tory Party can't have a snap election. They will be massacred. Even against Corbyn.
Despite what fanatics like you think the Tories are still level pegging or ahead in most polls even post Chequers and May's UK customs union plan. A few diehards have moved to UKIP but a few Labour Remainers have moved to the Tories.
The likeliest outcome of a general election tomorrow is another hung parliament, a Tory majoroty in England but Corbyn becomes PM with SNP confidence and supply and LD support on key legislation and agrees an almost identical deal with the EU to May's.
So if Parliament rejects May's Deal, Corbyn will likely end up agreeing it anyway
Anyway.. to summarise:0 -
In Werrity, we know not.TheScreamingEagles said:
What’s the disgraced national security risk said/done?Pulpstar said:Damn, Liam Fox has read the document remarkably quickly.
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The reputations of those who opposed Brexit will only be enhanced by the shitshow to comeold_labour said:
You cannot take your money with you to the grave, but your reputation or lack of it lives on.0 -
Most voters do not want No Deal, not one poll has No Deal preferred to a Deal or even Remainydoethur said:If Labour vote against a deal and we leave with no deal - this being the alternative - will their voters ever actually forgive them?
Perversely, it would also massively help the Tories - by forcing them to deliver the no deal most of the voters are odd enough to want.
And @TheWhiteRabbit I hope you haven't forgotten our bet in light of recent comments...0 -
+1NickPalmer said:To all those who said there wouldn't be a deal at the last minute - I told you so. It's how the EU handles crises. Whether it will get through Parliament is another story, but I suspect it will.
Momentum will now build as establishment on both sides pushes it.
Tories will do everything to avoid a GE - and in that analysis most shades will conclude that avoiding a no deal and accepting a deal which they *could* reopen later will be a sane choice. It will be a begrudging choice too... "Of course, we would have done it differently, but we are where we are".
A focus will move on to settling the future relationship to their particular view of what it should be. The WA is just that - and all the battles over the backstop are for nought if we can agree the long term deal during the transition.
This battle will be won, and focus will move to the final deal now.
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I don't see that that will matter - there simply are not the votes for any deal, and any other option involves a delayrpjs said:
Would business and the markets be willing to wait that long for some sort of certainty about the outcome of Brexit? I doubt it.kle4 said:Thank goodness there is now something that parliament can just vote down already and get this stage of crap over with. Election in Feb/March I imagine.
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Left No 10 already.TheScreamingEagles said:
What’s the disgraced national security risk said/done?Pulpstar said:Damn, Liam Fox has read the document remarkably quickly.
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Its gibberish for "Damn You Autocorrect"AnneJGP said:
Anyone care to offer a translation of poloroxoanstgey, please?RochdalePioneers said:This is going to be top quality entertainment. What's the point in a technical agreement by diplomats if ihe poloroxoanstgey work for are so bitterly divided that the PM refuses to show them the legal advice and needs to plead with them one by one?
How many cabinet resignations can she survive?
Good evening, everybody.0 -
In case you hadn't spotted this, I commented that it was most of THEIR voters. As in, more than half of just under 43%. I stand by that comment.HYUFD said:
Most voters do not want No Deal, not one poll has No Deal preferred to a Deal or even Remainydoethur said:If Labour vote against a deal and we leave with no deal - this being the alternative - will their voters ever actually forgive them?
Perversely, it would also massively help the Tories - by forcing them to deliver the no deal most of the voters are odd enough to want.
And @TheWhiteRabbit I hope you haven't forgotten our bet in light of recent comments...0 -
815,000 votes were cast in NI at the last General Election, the DUP got 292,000 votes and 10 seats and now we are to be lectured by them on taking rules from Brussels when they won't even accept all the rules from Westminster. Bollocks to them....if May has shafted them, I say well done.0
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Sounds like an easy choice, but no doubt it does not appear that way to them.Theo said:Interesting to see the usual suspects trying to get all their spin in early when they haven't got the foggiest clue what is in the deal.
What is most interesting to me is what the pro-European Labour MPs do. Corbyn, as a eurosceptic,, obviously has his interests aligned. He wants a crash out Brexit because he wants to leave, wants an opportunity to bring back state aid and he wants a crash to become PM. The rest of the Labour Party have a choice: on the one side they will get to power (albeit in a way that cements the hard left in power), on the other they will destroy any goodwill the EU has towards the UK and cause unnecessary harm to the people they went into politics to serve.0 -
Too late for a December election unless it is called tomorrow. 20th December is last realistic Thursday option.rpjs said:
It would fit the rumours the other day that May is preparing for a December election. She knows the deal would trigger the DUP into calling a Parliamentary VONC that she'd lose.grabcocque said:If May has betrayed the DUP, her government will not survive the week.
Deciding that the DUP are not serious about their threat to bring down the government would be an incalculably foolish error.
And it neatly heads off the Tory VONC option: there wouldn't be any time for the Tories to depose her and elect a new leader before the General Election.
She's throwing double or quit again.0 -
Jezza is always measured in interviews but anyway difficult not to sound more measured than JRM. Slave state????Stark_Dawning said:Jezza actually sounds the most measured so far - at least he's saying he'll read it first.
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Like Heseltine in 1986 or all smiles ?Pulpstar said:
Left No 10 already.TheScreamingEagles said:
What’s the disgraced national security risk said/done?Pulpstar said:Damn, Liam Fox has read the document remarkably quickly.
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Yes they would, they will blame the Tories for 'forcing ' no deal.ydoethur said:If Labour vote against a deal and we leave with no deal - this being the alternative - will their voters ever actually forgive them?
Perversely, it would also massively help the Tories - by forcing them to deliver the no deal most of the voters are odd enough to want.
..
It would only help the Tories if there are no negative consequences to no deal.
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Like Heseltine? Has he been helicoptering?TheScreamingEagles said:
Like Heseltine in 1986 or all smiles ?Pulpstar said:
Left No 10 already.TheScreamingEagles said:
What’s the disgraced national security risk said/done?Pulpstar said:Damn, Liam Fox has read the document remarkably quickly.
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Establishment on both sides? The labour establishment is against it.RobinWiggs said:
+1NickPalmer said:To all those who said there wouldn't be a deal at the last minute - I told you so. It's how the EU handles crises. Whether it will get through Parliament is another story, but I suspect it will.
Momentum will now build as establishment on both sides pushes it.
Tories will do everything to avoid a GE - and in that analysis most shades will conclude that avoiding a no deal and accepting a deal which they *could* reopen later will be a sane choice. It will be a begrudging choice too... "Of course, we would have done it differently, but we are where we are".
A focus will move on to settling the future relationship to their particular view of what it should be. The WA is just that - and all the battles over the backstop are for nought if we can agree the long term deal during the transition.
This battle will be won, and focus will move to the final deal now.0 -
0
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I would say that the price of an EU deal May be shafting the DUP. Another reason an early GE may happen as they retaliate even if they claim otherwise now.mwjfrome17 said:815,000 votes were cast in NI at the last General Election, the DUP got 292,000 votes and 10 seats and now we are to be lectured by them on taking rules from Brussels when they won't even accept all the rules from Westminster. Bollocks to them....if May has shafted them, I say well done.
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They'll just spin it out, first every member will be given a large tome to digest, then they'll be a delay of a few days, then if the vote rejects the deal, she'll say it's not binding. By then it'll be nearly Christmas and the house will go into recess.rpjs said:
Would business and the markets be willing to wait that long for some sort of certainty about the outcome of Brexit? I doubt it.kle4 said:Thank goodness there is now something that parliament can just vote down already and get this stage of crap over with. Election in Feb/March I imagine.
Then in the new year, they'll call a vote of no confidence, which will be delayed by a few days, then if it's passed the PM will go into talks to try to get it reversed which will last the full two weeks and if it's not reversed, she'll resign, then a new caretaker PM will take her place and try to say that the VONC doesn't still apply, then the speaker will tell him it does and after a couple more days delay a long campaign GE will be called.
After all that, polling day will be at the end of Feb or in March.
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So is that Brexit all done then? Good. The formality of the Commons vote and then we crack open the champagne *.
* Well clearly not champagne obviously. Fizzy British Dog urine. But the sentiment is the same.0 -
I know plenty of bright, dynamic, charming Ulster people. Unfortunately for Ulster none of them live there having decided to move to the 21st Century. Which may be why Ulster has the politicans it deserves.mwjfrome17 said:815,000 votes were cast in NI at the last General Election, the DUP got 292,000 votes and 10 seats and now we are to be lectured by them on taking rules from Brussels when they won't even accept all the rules from Westminster. Bollocks to them....if May has shafted them, I say well done.
0 -
Mail splash is "Brexit Deal Is Done". Read into that what you want.0
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Always more of a horse piss man myself. Still, each to their own.Jonathan said:So is that Brexit all done then? Good. The formality of the Commons vote and then we crack open the champagne *.
* Well clearly not champagne obviously. Fizzy British Dog urine. But the sentiment is the same.0 -
JRM - THIS IS WAR
How can the man continue to operate under the whip of the enemy of the United Kingdom? If its war - and the government are TRAITORS then what does that make him and the rest of the ERG continuing to take the whip.
What a cowardly snivelling turd.0 -
What a stupid comment. No one else has stepped up to try to steer it and it only takes 48 letters to try, what's thus about 'not letting' anyone else? If you don't try to remove her then of course she kept going.williamglenn said:0 -
Actually most Tory voters want a Canada Deal, No Deal is just a last resort.ydoethur said:
In case you hadn't spotted this, I commented that it was most of THEIR voters. As in, more than half of just under 43%. I stand by that comment.HYUFD said:
Most voters do not want No Deal, not one poll has No Deal preferred to a Deal or even Remainydoethur said:If Labour vote against a deal and we leave with no deal - this being the alternative - will their voters ever actually forgive them?
Perversely, it would also massively help the Tories - by forcing them to deliver the no deal most of the voters are odd enough to want.
And @TheWhiteRabbit I hope you haven't forgotten our bet in light of recent comments...
Only UKIP voters are fully behind No Deal0 -
Reckless?RochdalePioneers said:JRM - THIS IS WAR
How can the man continue to operate under the whip of the enemy of the United Kingdom? If its war - and the government are TRAITORS then what does that make him and the rest of the ERG continuing to take the whip.
Or has he now been Marked...0 -
January 17th is more likely!GIN1138 said:
Trudging to the polls in the December gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 3:30pm...numbertwelve said:
Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.Morris_Dancer said:If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
AND Theresa May leading the campaign.
What could possibly go wrong?0 -
How stupid does he think everyone is? They've been saying May's days are numbered for a long time.HYUFD said:IDS warns May 'her days are numbered' because of this Deal. IDS backed Leadsom in 2016 of course
https://mobile.twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062405003766362113
I'm very convinced many May opponents are lying about how bad things would be, else they would have taken action and been more forthright about needing to remove her a long time ago. Only some have been so bold.
This is irrespective of if the deal is terrible. It might be, but their actions are cynical and pathetic.0 -
So Boris and Rees Mogg come out denouncing potentially the most important document in the last 50 years before even reading the bloody thing. Idiots.0
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The most recent poll put the split at 48/41. On the assumption that the remaining 11% are probably not closet Liberal Democrats, I still repeat my comment.HYUFD said:
Actually most Tory voters want a Canada Deal, No Deal is just a last resort.ydoethur said:
In case you hadn't spotted this, I commented that it was most of THEIR voters. As in, more than half of just under 43%. I stand by that comment.HYUFD said:
Most voters do not want No Deal, not one poll has No Deal preferred to a Deal or even Remainydoethur said:If Labour vote against a deal and we leave with no deal - this being the alternative - will their voters ever actually forgive them?
Perversely, it would also massively help the Tories - by forcing them to deliver the no deal most of the voters are odd enough to want.
And @TheWhiteRabbit I hope you haven't forgotten our bet in light of recent comments...
Only UKIP voters are fully behind No Deal
https://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-may-conservatives-brexit-poll-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place/0 -
If his comments are as reported, agreed. The rhetoric for a long time has been absurd, and if they talk like this of their own party the party needs to split, and test which side is stronger.RochdalePioneers said:JRM - THIS IS WAR
How can the man continue to operate under the whip of the enemy of the United Kingdom? If its war - and the government are TRAITORS then what does that make him and the rest of the ERG continuing to take the whip.
What a cowardly snivelling turd.0 -
Depends on whether the DUP continue to support the government.kle4 said:
How stupid does he think everyone is? They've been saying May's days are numbered for a long time.HYUFD said:IDS warns May 'her days are numbered' because of this Deal. IDS backed Leadsom in 2016 of course
https://mobile.twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062405003766362113
I'm very convinced many May opponents are lying about how bad things would be, else they would have taken action and been more forthright about needing to remover a long time ago.0 -
So now Brexit is done, is it time for that AV thread? Or Maybe we need a referendum about gravity. It has been pulling us down all this time. The British people have a right to vote themselves freedom.0
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UK Establishment and EU Establishment.kle4 said:
Establishment on both sides? The labour establishment is against it.RobinWiggs said:
+1NickPalmer said:To all those who said there wouldn't be a deal at the last minute - I told you so. It's how the EU handles crises. Whether it will get through Parliament is another story, but I suspect it will.
Momentum will now build as establishment on both sides pushes it.
Tories will do everything to avoid a GE - and in that analysis most shades will conclude that avoiding a no deal and accepting a deal which they *could* reopen later will be a sane choice. It will be a begrudging choice too... "Of course, we would have done it differently, but we are where we are".
A focus will move on to settling the future relationship to their particular view of what it should be. The WA is just that - and all the battles over the backstop are for nought if we can agree the long term deal during the transition.
This battle will be won, and focus will move to the final deal now.0 -
He thinks he's intelligent.kle4 said:
How stupid does he think everyone is?.HYUFD said:IDS warns May 'her days are numbered' because of this Deal. IDS backed Leadsom in 2016 of course
https://mobile.twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1062405003766362113
He also assumes nobody has seen the lies on his CV.
He thought of himself as a potential PM.
Does that sort of answer your question?0 -
Its people like JRM who were the cause of all the graves in Northern France and Belgium we saw at the weekend. He's a fool. We should stop listening to him and treating him as serious person.0
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