politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the Brexit “deal” reaches another critical week the public
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They will but neither of them would win without a viable alternative anyway.MarqueeMark said:
If Hunt and Javid don't both back her, she is toast.HYUFD said:
If May wins that as she almost certainly will she is safe for a year and cannot be challenged.MarqueeMark said:
Except the VONC will happen first?HYUFD said:
That is precisely what May will do, a no confidence vote as Major did in 1993 and all the rebels bar the diehards will fold exactly as happened then.grabcocque said:
FTPA prevents that. The *only* thing that counts as a confidence issue is a specific motion of no confidence, moved in accordance with the act.HYUFD said:So it looks like May has finally agreed the full text of the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU and is meeting Cabinet Ministers one to one tonight to go through it. So McVey and Leadsom May be potential resignations shortly.
May then needs to get it through Parliament and might well make it a confidence vote issue as Major did to get Maastricht through
Which, of course, gives the DUP and Brexiteers complete freedom to vote against this knowing it won't directly cause the government to fall.
That said. IF the rumours are correct, and May has sold out the DUP, I wouldn't be surprised if the DUP moved a motion of no confidence in her tomorrow.
May will say she is prepared for a general election on a manifesto for her Deal and will not change from that position
Remember she only needs 50.01% of Tory MPs and 50.2% voted for her even in just the first round in 2016 and 60% in the second.
Only 120 Tory MPs backed Leave
If No Deal it would inevitably be Boris or Davis and they know it0 -
Peterborough MP might be in a big hole and heading for a by-election.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/11/13/labour-mp-tried-give-speeding-points-former-lodger-russia-time/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw0 -
This may be the week where my dire warnings about exactly how disastrous it was that voters declined to give Mrs May the mandate she needed come to pass.0
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Well there's a surprise.Scott_P said:0 -
Even with a majority of 100+ most of those new MPs may have been ERGRichard_Nabavi said:This may be the week where my dire warnings about exactly how disastrous it was that voters declined to give Mrs May the mandate she needed come to pass.
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And rightly so, because it was clear Dave's Deal was not fit for purpose.Scott_P said:0 -
What difference would it have made? Even a majority of 100 wouldn't help this deal.Richard_Nabavi said:This may be the week where my dire warnings about exactly how disastrous it was that voters declined to give Mrs May the mandate she needed come to pass.
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How is the ERG's research into Europe going ?0
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An MP in trouble over points -- has this ever happened before?dr_spyn said:Peterborough MP might be in a big hole and heading for a by-election.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/11/13/labour-mp-tried-give-speeding-points-former-lodger-russia-time/?WT.mc_id=tmg_share_tw0 -
No, she'd have had the authority to face them down. Success breeds success, but unfortunately the corollary is also true.HYUFD said:
Even with a majority of 100+ most of those new MPs may have been ERGRichard_Nabavi said:This may be the week where my dire warnings about exactly how disastrous it was that voters declined to give Mrs May the mandate she needed come to pass.
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They have found it is across the Channel and we buy goods from them occasionally.Pulpstar said:How is the ERG's research into Europe going ?
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Momentous times.
I suspect the over-riding response of those reading the 500 pages will be "What in the name of fuck has Olly Robbins been doing????"0 -
Their preliminary conclusion is that they don't like it.Pulpstar said:How is the ERG's research into Europe going ?
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Blaming the voters is pathetic. May had to reach out to reach a compromise within Britain, but she is incapable of doing so. The failure is all hers.Richard_Nabavi said:This may be the week where my dire warnings about exactly how disastrous it was that voters declined to give Mrs May the mandate she needed come to pass.
When she called the election she said that the country was united. You can't blame the country for telling her that was cobblers.0 -
You do not know the deal, neither does ERG, but kill it before it sees the light of day seems to be the order of the daywilliamglenn said:
What difference would it have made? Even a majority of 100 wouldn't help this deal.Richard_Nabavi said:This may be the week where my dire warnings about exactly how disastrous it was that voters declined to give Mrs May the mandate she needed come to pass.
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ERG will no doubt have been told the 5 page summary by now.....Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do not know the deal, neither does ERG, but kill it before it sees the light of day seems to be the order of the daywilliamglenn said:
What difference would it have made? Even a majority of 100 wouldn't help this deal.Richard_Nabavi said:This may be the week where my dire warnings about exactly how disastrous it was that voters declined to give Mrs May the mandate she needed come to pass.
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It would fit the rumours the other day that May is preparing for a December election. She knows the deal would trigger the DUP into calling a Parliamentary VONC that she'd lose.grabcocque said:If May has betrayed the DUP, her government will not survive the week.
Deciding that the DUP are not serious about their threat to bring down the government would be an incalculably foolish error.
And it neatly heads off the Tory VONC option: there wouldn't be any time for the Tories to depose her and elect a new leader before the General Election.
She's throwing double or quit again.0 -
I wonder.MarqueeMark said:Momentous times.
I suspect the over-riding response of those reading the 500 pages will be "What in the name of fuck has Olly Robbins been doing????"
I suspect it will be written in language that would need a legal genius to work out what it is actually saying.
Cox will be crucial.0 -
I can't quite believe we may be heading for a third general election in three years, but maybe we are.MarqueeMark said:Momentous times.
I suspect the over-riding response of those reading the 500 pages will be "What in the name of fuck has Olly Robbins been doing????"0 -
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I, for one, still hope the little final details of the deal are good, and bid it luck. Whole UK CU backstop, sounds good to me.
The noise is just noise up until the very moment when it isn't.0 -
Fine. Voters are the ones who have to live with the consequences of their decision. They seem to have prioritised a load of trivia over getting a good outcome in implementing the referendum result. Up to them, of course, but they get what they voted for: chaos, and possibly even eventually Corbyn.OblitusSumMe said:
Blaming the voters is pathetic. May had to reach out to reach a compromise within Britain, but she is incapable of doing so. The failure is all hers.Richard_Nabavi said:This may be the week where my dire warnings about exactly how disastrous it was that voters declined to give Mrs May the mandate she needed come to pass.
When she called the election she said that the country was united. You came blame the country for telling her that was cobblers.0 -
May's failing to clear this with the DUP first, the one group most willing and able to sink her government, seems like baffling idiocy to me.
I cannot BELIEVE that May is happy to allow the people who are propping up her government have their entire view of the document relayed to them second hand by Jacob Ress Mogg.
It's so astonishingly cretinous I almost can't believe mere incompetence can explain this. Maybe she wants the DUP to crash government?0 -
Hmm. What other option does she have. There is no other plan, except a 2nd vote or Norway for Now. The latter seems to have rejected by, er, Norway.rpjs said:
It would fit the rumours the other day that May is preparing for a December election. She knows the deal would trigger the DUP into calling a Parliamentary VONC that she'd lose.grabcocque said:If May has betrayed the DUP, her government will not survive the week.
Deciding that the DUP are not serious about their threat to bring down the government would be an incalculably foolish error.
And it neatly heads off the Tory VONC option: there wouldn't be any time for the Tories to depose her and elect a new leader before the General Election.
She's throwing double or quit again.
To repeat the Brexiteers have no plan. They never have.0 -
I love it when you talk dirty to me, Richard.Richard_Nabavi said:
Fine. Voters are the ones who have to live with the consequences of their decision. They seem to have prioritised a load of trivia over getting a good outcome in implementing the referendum result. Up to them, of course, but they get what they voted for: chaos, and possibly even eventually Corbyn.OblitusSumMe said:
Blaming the voters is pathetic. May had to reach out to reach a compromise within Britain, but she is incapable of doing so. The failure is all hers.Richard_Nabavi said:This may be the week where my dire warnings about exactly how disastrous it was that voters declined to give Mrs May the mandate she needed come to pass.
When she called the election she said that the country was united. You came blame the country for telling her that was cobblers.0 -
Perhaps she did clear it with the DUP first?grabcocque said:May's failing to clear this with the DUP first, the one group most willing and able to sink her government, seems like baffling idiocy to me.
I cannot BELIEVE that May is happy to allow the people who are propping up her government have their entire view of the document relayed to them second hand by Jacob Ress Mogg.
It's so astonishingly cretinous I almost can't believe mere incompetence can explain this. Maybe she wants the DUP to crash government?0 -
They voted on the question May posed: is the country united? Giving May a landslide was not the only way to reach a deal.Richard_Nabavi said:
Fine. Voters are the ones who have to live with the consequences of their decision. They seem to have prioritised a load of trivia over getting a good outcome in implementing the referendum result. Up to them, of course, but they get what they voted for: chaos, and possibly even eventually Corbyn.OblitusSumMe said:
Blaming the voters is pathetic. May had to reach out to reach a compromise within Britain, but she is incapable of doing so. The failure is all hers.Richard_Nabavi said:This may be the week where my dire warnings about exactly how disastrous it was that voters declined to give Mrs May the mandate she needed come to pass.
When she called the election she said that the country was united. You came blame the country for telling her that was cobblers.0 -
Theresa May called the election in order, she said, to win a mandate for her vision of Brexit. Even tonight, have you got the faintest idea what that was? The Cabinet hasn't.Richard_Nabavi said:
Fine. Voters are the ones who have to live with the consequences of their decision. They seem to have prioritised a load of trivia over getting a good outcome in implementing the referendum result. Up to them, of course, but they get what they voted for: chaos, and possibly even eventually Corbyn.OblitusSumMe said:
Blaming the voters is pathetic. May had to reach out to reach a compromise within Britain, but she is incapable of doing so. The failure is all hers.Richard_Nabavi said:This may be the week where my dire warnings about exactly how disastrous it was that voters declined to give Mrs May the mandate she needed come to pass.
When she called the election she said that the country was united. You came blame the country for telling her that was cobblers.0 -
It would have been a hell of a better way than what we've got.OblitusSumMe said:
They voted on the question May posed: is the country united? Giving May a landslide was not the only way to reach a deal.Richard_Nabavi said:
Fine. Voters are the ones who have to live with the consequences of their decision. They seem to have prioritised a load of trivia over getting a good outcome in implementing the referendum result. Up to them, of course, but they get what they voted for: chaos, and possibly even eventually Corbyn.OblitusSumMe said:
Blaming the voters is pathetic. May had to reach out to reach a compromise within Britain, but she is incapable of doing so. The failure is all hers.Richard_Nabavi said:This may be the week where my dire warnings about exactly how disastrous it was that voters declined to give Mrs May the mandate she needed come to pass.
When she called the election she said that the country was united. You came blame the country for telling her that was cobblers.0 -
Maybe, but the fact they're lining up with the ERG in the lobby to take a dump on it from a great height would suggest maybe not.Richard_Nabavi said:
Perhaps she did clear it with the DUP first?grabcocque said:May's failing to clear this with the DUP first, the one group most willing and able to sink her government, seems like baffling idiocy to me.
I cannot BELIEVE that May is happy to allow the people who are propping up her government have their entire view of the document relayed to them second hand by Jacob Ress Mogg.
It's so astonishingly cretinous I almost can't believe mere incompetence can explain this. Maybe she wants the DUP to crash government?0 -
Given that my close family are highly reliant on quite a number of prescription medicines, I am hoping she can cobble something together...Pro_Rata said:I, for one, still hope the little final details of the deal are good, and bid it luck. Whole UK CU backstop, sounds good to me.
The noise is just noise up until the point when it isn't.0 -
Starmer has decided it will fail Labour's tests before reading it !0
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Ok, I will admit it. Matt is a genius.Scott_P said:0 -
Theresa May, the Amazing Election Calling Woman.rpjs said:
It would fit the rumours the other day that May is preparing for a December election. She knows the deal would trigger the DUP into calling a Parliamentary VONC that she'd lose.grabcocque said:If May has betrayed the DUP, her government will not survive the week.
Deciding that the DUP are not serious about their threat to bring down the government would be an incalculably foolish error.
And it neatly heads off the Tory VONC option: there wouldn't be any time for the Tories to depose her and elect a new leader before the General Election.
She's throwing double or quit again.
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We know in outline what she's trying to achieve, as laid out in Lancaster House: we leave the EU, there's no automatic freedom of movement, we adhere to EU product standards in goods (which is a no-brainer anyway), we leave the CFP, we leave the CAP, and we have a comprehensive trade deal with the EU. Bang slap in the middle of what voters voted for in the referendum, without crashing the economy too much.DecrepitJohnL said:
Theresa May called the election in order, she said, to win a mandate for her vision of Brexit. Even tonight, have you got the faintest idea what that was? The Cabinet hasn't.Richard_Nabavi said:
Fine. Voters are the ones who have to live with the consequences of their decision. They seem to have prioritised a load of trivia over getting a good outcome in implementing the referendum result. Up to them, of course, but they get what they voted for: chaos, and possibly even eventually Corbyn.OblitusSumMe said:
Blaming the voters is pathetic. May had to reach out to reach a compromise within Britain, but she is incapable of doing so. The failure is all hers.Richard_Nabavi said:This may be the week where my dire warnings about exactly how disastrous it was that voters declined to give Mrs May the mandate she needed come to pass.
When she called the election she said that the country was united. You came blame the country for telling her that was cobblers.0 -
Didn't the DUP recently walk back their threat to No Confidence vote?grabcocque said:If May has betrayed the DUP, her government will not survive the week.
Deciding that the DUP are not serious about their threat to bring down the government would be an incalculably foolish error.0 -
Let's see.grabcocque said:
Maybe, but the fact they're lining up with the ERG in the lobby to take a dump on it from a great height would suggest maybe not.Richard_Nabavi said:
Perhaps she did clear it with the DUP first?grabcocque said:May's failing to clear this with the DUP first, the one group most willing and able to sink her government, seems like baffling idiocy to me.
I cannot BELIEVE that May is happy to allow the people who are propping up her government have their entire view of the document relayed to them second hand by Jacob Ress Mogg.
It's so astonishingly cretinous I almost can't believe mere incompetence can explain this. Maybe she wants the DUP to crash government?0 -
I admit it, if this has been her plan all along, I'd be forced to admit some grudging admiration.numbertwelve said:
Theresa May, the Amazing Election Calling Woman.rpjs said:
It would fit the rumours the other day that May is preparing for a December election. She knows the deal would trigger the DUP into calling a Parliamentary VONC that she'd lose.grabcocque said:If May has betrayed the DUP, her government will not survive the week.
Deciding that the DUP are not serious about their threat to bring down the government would be an incalculably foolish error.
And it neatly heads off the Tory VONC option: there wouldn't be any time for the Tories to depose her and elect a new leader before the General Election.
She's throwing double or quit again.0 -
There is no Brexit deal that can unite the Conservative party. I suspect there is one that could unite a large part of Labour. 0
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If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?0
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Did the interviewer follow that up with "Are you taking the fucking piss mate?"williamglenn said:0 -
Cake, but not too much cake.Richard_Nabavi said:
We know in outline what she's trying to achieve, as laid out in Lancaster House: we leave the EU, there's no automatic freedom of movement, we adhere to EU product standards in goods (which is a no-brainer anyway), we leave the CFP, we leave the CAP, and we have a comprehensive trade deal with the EU. Bang slap in the middle of what voters voted for in the referendum, without crashing the economy too much.DecrepitJohnL said:
Theresa May called the election in order, she said, to win a mandate for her vision of Brexit. Even tonight, have you got the faintest idea what that was? The Cabinet hasn't.Richard_Nabavi said:
Fine. Voters are the ones who have to live with the consequences of their decision. They seem to have prioritised a load of trivia over getting a good outcome in implementing the referendum result. Up to them, of course, but they get what they voted for: chaos, and possibly even eventually Corbyn.OblitusSumMe said:
Blaming the voters is pathetic. May had to reach out to reach a compromise within Britain, but she is incapable of doing so. The failure is all hers.Richard_Nabavi said:This may be the week where my dire warnings about exactly how disastrous it was that voters declined to give Mrs May the mandate she needed come to pass.
When she called the election she said that the country was united. You came blame the country for telling her that was cobblers.
Too much cake makes you sick.0 -
Suits me - as I am now a gentleman of leisure I have the time to literally spend all day running a GE campaign. And why should we end up with a General Election?rpjs said:
It would fit the rumours the other day that May is preparing for a December election. She knows the deal would trigger the DUP into calling a Parliamentary VONC that she'd lose.grabcocque said:If May has betrayed the DUP, her government will not survive the week.
Deciding that the DUP are not serious about their threat to bring down the government would be an incalculably foolish error.
And it neatly heads off the Tory VONC option: there wouldn't be any time for the Tories to depose her and elect a new leader before the General Election.
She's throwing double or quit again.
Deal requires the same "temporary" customs arrangement still temporarily enjoyed by Turkey
Deal requires NI to have different rules to GB
Deal means we still take EU rules but with new improved zero say over them
Deal scores against all sides' shit lists without giving them any positives in exchange
She won't get it through Cabinet without resignations. She won't get it through her party without mass votes against. She won't get it through Parliament. And all that for a "deal" which reports Barnier and Coveney still saying isn't yet done.
Bring On The Popcorn!0 -
Alistair said:
Did the interviewer follow that up with "Are you taking the fucking piss mate?"williamglenn said:
"Europe is so bad and such an awful place of economic failure, that I moved my entire hedge fund to Dublin last month."0 -
Why the ********** **** (sorry Big G) am I going to La Bayadere tonight?
I have nearly choked on my coffee ten times reading the last 50 comments.0 -
Its Mince Pie season, that glorious pre-Christmas period where all the retailers unveil their premium tier mince pies and all need to be sampled to find out whose is best. Have never yet been sick eating Mince Pies.grabcocque said:Cake, but not too much cake.
Too much cake makes you sick.
Perhaps Mince Pies instead of Popcorn...0 -
Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.Morris_Dancer said:If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
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Not sounding too good re Liam.0
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That is funnyTOPPING said:Why the ********** **** (sorry Big G) am I going to La Bayadere tonight?
I have nearly choked on my coffee ten times reading the last 50 comments.0 -
What an absolute prick Boris is.0
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He's staying?Stark_Dawning said:Not sounding too good re Liam.
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Labour would need to vote for one. I guess it would be hard not to given their policy...numbertwelve said:
Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.Morris_Dancer said:If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
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If it doesn’t pass the cabinet, I suspect they’ll be giving her the marching orders.Morris_Dancer said:If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
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Oasis never getting back together?Stark_Dawning said:Not sounding too good re Liam.
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He was seething that RTE got the story before the British media. Referred to RTE as foreign.grabcocque said:If May has betrayed the DUP, her government will not survive the week.
Deciding that the DUP are not serious about their threat to bring down the government would be an incalculably foolish error.
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If the cabinet reject the deal, TM will have no option but to resign.Mortimer said:
If it doesn’t pass the cabinet, I suspect they’ll be giving her the marching orders.Morris_Dancer said:If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
However, where that leaves us goodness knows0 -
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1062404302076104704
It isn't over until the fat lady sings.0 -
Actually Theresa May is, from a personal point of view, in rather a good position as regards her future reputation as PM (no really, don't fall off your chair quite yet). She's done her best, everyone agrees. She seems, against serious odds, to have come back with an outline deal. There are now two possibilities for her personally:
1. Success!
2. She can't get it past the cabinet and parliament. In which case she can with honour say she has done her duty and presented what she considers to be the best achievable outcome. She will then, I think, resign. Since colleagues don't like what she brought back, let someone else see if they can do better. (Hint: they can't - she'll be vindicated by subsequent events).0 -
Jezza actually sounds the most measured so far - at least he's saying he'll read it first.0
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David Davis as acting PM....?Big_G_NorthWales said:
If the cabinet reject the deal, TM will have no option but to resign.Mortimer said:
If it doesn’t pass the cabinet, I suspect they’ll be giving her the marching orders.Morris_Dancer said:If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
However, where that leaves us goodness knows
The Tory Party can't have a snap election. They will be massacred. Even against Corbyn.0 -
So are we getting this steak and blowjob or not?0
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As if RTE wouldn't like to help DUP and UK Government fight like ferrets in a sack.0
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tbf that is one constant in an ever-changing World.Stark_Dawning said:Not sounding too good re Liam.
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How could they not? Last time round they improved by 15 points between the opinion polls when the election was called and polling day. Do that again and JCIPM with a majority Kim Jong-un would envy.williamglenn said:
Labour would need to vote for one. I guess it would be hard not to given their policy...numbertwelve said:
Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.Morris_Dancer said:If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
(Yes, I know that won't happen, but my point remains that there is absolutely no reason why Labour would baulk at allowing an election.)0 -
Complete demonstration of how unsuited Boris is to office
He said 'According to these proposals, if the reports are correct, .....................
At least Keir Starmer says let us see the proposals first0 -
I was thinking just that about May - could be her finest hour.Richard_Nabavi said:Actually Theresa May is, from a personal point of view, in rather a good position as regards her future reputation as PM (no really, don't fall off your chair quite yet). She's done her best, everyone agrees. She seems, against serious odds, to have come back with an outline deal. There are now two possibilities for her personally:
1. Success!
2. She can't get it past the cabinet and parliament. In which case she can with honour say she has done her duty and presented what she considers to be the best achievable outcome. She will then, I think, resign. Since colleagues don't like what she brought back, let someone else see if they can do better. (Hint: they can't - she'll be vindicated by subsequent events).
2 would be bad for the country though. Very very bad.0 -
I should bloody well think so! There's a Tory government to bring down - we haven't done that since 1974!Pulpstar said:Starmer has decided it will fail Labour's tests before reading it !
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Indeed so.TOPPING said:
I was thinking just that about May - could be her finest hour.Richard_Nabavi said:Actually Theresa May is, from a personal point of view, in rather a good position as regards her future reputation as PM (no really, don't fall off your chair quite yet). She's done her best, everyone agrees. She seems, against serious odds, to have come back with an outline deal. There are now two possibilities for her personally:
1. Success!
2. She can't get it past the cabinet and parliament. In which case she can with honour say she has done her duty and presented what she considers to be the best achievable outcome. She will then, I think, resign. Since colleagues don't like what she brought back, let someone else see if they can do better. (Hint: they can't - she'll be vindicated by subsequent events).
2 would be bad for the country though. Very very bad.0 -
They could say that it's a con and May is trying to run away from putting her deal before parliament.rpjs said:
How could they not? Last time round they improved by 15 points between the opinion polls when the election was called and polling day. Do that again and JCIPM with a majority Kim Jong-un would envy.williamglenn said:
Labour would need to vote for one. I guess it would be hard not to given their policy...numbertwelve said:
Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.Morris_Dancer said:If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
(Yes, I know that won't happen, but my point remains that there is absolutely no reason why Labour would baulk at allowing an election.)0 -
I'd like to think that maybe there would be more to May's legacy than simply weaponised pity, but you take what you can get, I guess.0
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Has to be a neutral successor if it occursMarqueeMark said:
David Davis as acting PM....?Big_G_NorthWales said:
If the cabinet reject the deal, TM will have no option but to resign.Mortimer said:
If it doesn’t pass the cabinet, I suspect they’ll be giving her the marching orders.Morris_Dancer said:If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
However, where that leaves us goodness knows
The Tory Party can't have a snap election. They will be massacred. Even against Corbyn.0 -
Is Mike going on holiday or something?0
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Trudging to the polls in the December gloom, ice, rain and snow with darkness descending at 3:30pm...numbertwelve said:
Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.Morris_Dancer said:If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
AND Theresa May leading the campaign.
What could possibly go wrong? 0 -
Hard to describe the depth of the utter and total contempt I feel for the destructive, mendacious, ignorant Bucanneering Brexiteers and their bigoted, bowler-hatted Ulster mates for the utter shit-show they have inflicted on our country.0
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Sammy Wilson confirmed he has not seen the details just what the Irish have leaked
Extraordinary how poor our politicians are. Starmer the only grown up so far0 -
A SPAD friend of mine points out that its not possible for a December election. Assume VONC later this week, then 14 days for no government to have the confidence of the house, then 25 working days for an election campaign.numbertwelve said:
Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.Morris_Dancer said:If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
It's January at the earliest0 -
It can't be a neutral successor because the party - having trashed May's deal, if that's what happens - will then have to decide whether they don't like it because it's too much vassal state or not enough vassal state, and choose the successor accordingly.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Has to be a neutral successor if it occursMarqueeMark said:
David Davis as acting PM....?Big_G_NorthWales said:
If the cabinet reject the deal, TM will have no option but to resign.Mortimer said:
If it doesn’t pass the cabinet, I suspect they’ll be giving her the marching orders.Morris_Dancer said:If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
However, where that leaves us goodness knows
The Tory Party can't have a snap election. They will be massacred. Even against Corbyn.0 -
No good comes to those who side with the Tories.grabcocque said:May's failing to clear this with the DUP first, the one group most willing and able to sink her government, seems like baffling idiocy to me.
I cannot BELIEVE that May is happy to allow the people who are propping up her government have their entire view of the document relayed to them second hand by Jacob Ress Mogg.
It's so astonishingly cretinous I almost can't believe mere incompetence can explain this. Maybe she wants the DUP to crash government?0 -
More likely she's already written off any chance of them supporting it so simply didn't bother.grabcocque said:May's failing to clear this with the DUP first, the one group most willing and able to sink her government, seems like baffling idiocy to me.
I cannot BELIEVE that May is happy to allow the people who are propping up her government have their entire view of the document relayed to them second hand by Jacob Ress Mogg.
It's so astonishingly cretinous I almost can't believe mere incompetence can explain this. Maybe she wants the DUP to crash government?0 -
It has to be somebody who can hold the party together, but more importantly, get us through a No Deal Brexit. Because no successor can sign up to what May and Robbins have produced. (Or we would be keeping May.)Big_G_NorthWales said:
Has to be a neutral successor if it occursMarqueeMark said:
David Davis as acting PM....?Big_G_NorthWales said:
If the cabinet reject the deal, TM will have no option but to resign.Mortimer said:
If it doesn’t pass the cabinet, I suspect they’ll be giving her the marching orders.Morris_Dancer said:If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
However, where that leaves us goodness knows
The Tory Party can't have a snap election. They will be massacred. Even against Corbyn.
And the EU aren't going to give us second chance at a deal that any new PM can craft.0 -
Even if Labour play ball?RochdalePioneers said:
A SPAD friend of mine points out that its not possible for a December election. Assume VONC later this week, then 14 days for no government to have the confidence of the house, then 25 working days for an election campaign.numbertwelve said:
Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.Morris_Dancer said:If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
It's January at the earliest0 -
Try to look at it positively.SouthamObserver said:Hard to describe the depth of the utter and total contempt I feel for the destructive, mendacious, ignorant Bucanneering Brexiteers and their bigoted, bowler-hatted Ulster mates for the utter shit-show they have inflicted on our country.
If it gets through it’s fudgey Brexit-lite.
If it doesn’t get through there’s no way we don’t get some kind of election/extension/Ref20 -
And in so doing, she needs 11 more Labour MPs....dodrade said:
More likely she's already written off any chance of them supporting it so simply didn't bother.grabcocque said:May's failing to clear this with the DUP first, the one group most willing and able to sink her government, seems like baffling idiocy to me.
I cannot BELIEVE that May is happy to allow the people who are propping up her government have their entire view of the document relayed to them second hand by Jacob Ress Mogg.
It's so astonishingly cretinous I almost can't believe mere incompetence can explain this. Maybe she wants the DUP to crash government?0 -
Whilst that's probably right, there's no need for the VONC if there's a two-thirds majority for a GE.RochdalePioneers said:
A SPAD friend of mine points out that its not possible for a December election. Assume VONC later this week, then 14 days for no government to have the confidence of the house, then 25 working days for an election campaign.numbertwelve said:
Starting to think we might actually (gasp) be heading for snap GE.Morris_Dancer said:If the deal doesn't pass the Cabinet (or the Commons should it pass the Cabinet), does PB believe we are heading for No Deal, or Referendum 2: Refer Harder?
It's January at the earliest0 -
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He would have been going to America about now for a fortnight but events got in the way.John_M said:Is Mike going on holiday or something?
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She may well have had an extra 100 Tory MPs baying for No Deal having been elected on a hard Brexit ticket.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, she'd have had the authority to face them down. Success breeds success, but unfortunately the corollary is also true.HYUFD said:
Even with a majority of 100+ most of those new MPs may have been ERGRichard_Nabavi said:This may be the week where my dire warnings about exactly how disastrous it was that voters declined to give Mrs May the mandate she needed come to pass.
Most current Tory MPs voted Remain0 -
Its like Christmas already....0
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Tories will be mad and forever remorseful if they seize the day and strike down the agreement reached. I would sign it in a flash. No deal for May means No Deal for the Country. No deal is the end of the Tories and welcome to our new communist overlords within six months. It's not hard to think about this for a second and realise the best option is through the divisions with the aye's. I reckon the SNP could even get on board and some Labour - the national interest literally at stake. May has an interesting card there - anyone who votes against will go down in history as either stupid, ignorant or willfully negligent of the interests of the Country. Nearly too important to bet on, nearly...0
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Try because a majoirty of your fellow countrymen were sufficiently pissed off with what the Europhiles had been doing for 40 years on the sly, without asking the voters permission. Well done, Europhiles, for this utter shit-show.SouthamObserver said:Hard to describe the depth of the utter and total contempt I feel for the destructive, mendacious, ignorant Bucanneering Brexiteers and their bigoted, bowler-hatted Ulster mates for the utter shit-show they have inflicted on our country.
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Worried about a Mueller indictment.TheScreamingEagles said:
He would have been going to America about now for a fortnight but events got in the way.John_M said:Is Mike going on holiday or something?
I always knew OGH was up to something. All those late night meetings with sexy Russian femme fatales.
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https://twitter.com/ericgeller/status/1062073460552294406TheScreamingEagles said:Mueller seeking more details on Nigel Farage
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Rubbish.OblitusSumMe said:
Blaming the voters is pathetic. May had to reach out to reach a compromise within Britain, but she is incapable of doing so. The failure is all hers.Richard_Nabavi said:This may be the week where my dire warnings about exactly how disastrous it was that voters declined to give Mrs May the mandate she needed come to pass.
When she called the election she said that the country was united. You can't blame the country for telling her that was cobblers.
Most Leavers will not accept any dilution of Brexit, most Remainers want to reverse Brexit, the EU demanded a backstop for NI.
There was no real compromise to be made beyond what she got0
