politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the Brexit “deal” reaches another critical week the public

"Negotiations between the EU and UK on a withdrawal agreement are ongoing and have not concluded. Negotiators are still engaged and a number of issues are outstanding. We are not commenting further on leaks in the media."

Not exactly a denial.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Sean_F said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

grabcocque said:

dixiedean said:

Says all of UK in Customs Union for a period, but with "deeper provisions for NI and a review mechanism".

i.e. total capitulation.

The absolute worst of the Brexiteer's fears
The absolute worst of the DUP's fears
The EU's wet dream. The UK locked into indefinite vassalage, bound by the rules of the EU, paying it for, but with no say whatsoever, unless and until they deign to allow us to leave.

If this is true, her party and the DUP are going to rip her to shreds.

This is going to be bloody.

Though more likely, given the past few months, is that cabinet will take the communique and roundly jam it up May's withered clunge and tomorrow everyone will be denying all knowledge of its existence.

The UK ends freedom of movement without leaving the customs union.

And they said it couldn't be done!!

needless to say I do not agree with your assessment. not least because the backstop does not involve us paying for those things (although we will no doubt pay for things under the future partnership and other things generally)

TBH I think it's best to study a document before leaping to conclusions.

no no no much more fun this way

Reading things THEN concluding on them is my day job

Damn, I thought it was chasing hookah smoking caterpillars.

ralphmalph said:

Sky saying Varadkar has just announced negotiations are still ongoing.

Ireland's deputy PM

Stark_Dawning said:

Which Cabinet minister is going to stagger out of the one-to-one meeting literary in tears - a broken husk, inconsolable over a nation betrayed?

Theresa May?

Beverley_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I call out unnecessary language whenever it is used.

On that basis, how do you feel about adjectives?

No problem but suggesting someone is euthanised is a step too far for me

Stark_Dawning said:

Which Cabinet minister is going to stagger out of the one-to-one meeting literary in tears - a broken husk, inconsolable over a nation betrayed?

That raises the most pertinent question of the whole Brexit process: can we bet on this?

Media in hysteria and openly loving every minute of it

DecrepitJohnL said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Which Cabinet minister is going to stagger out of the one-to-one meeting literary in tears - a broken husk, inconsolable over a nation betrayed?

That raises the most pertinent question of the whole Brexit process: can we bet on this?

If I were her I'd make sure the doors between the cabinet room and the Downing Street front door are locked tomorrow to avoid anyone doing a Heseltine.

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1062373393046167552

https://twitter.com/tconnellyrte/status/1062373395445231616?s=21

No change whatsoever then, just more capitulation by the Tories

I wonder who'll be the first to break cover from the DUP or the ERG.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Media in hysteria and openly loving every minute of it

Come on now Big G, Westminster hacks LIVE for days like this !

Big_G_NorthWales said:

grabcocque said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

grabcocque said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

"Understand that DUP have not seen the text yet, so as yet unknown whether it crosses any of the DUP’s “red lines”"

I think May is prepared to die on this hill if necessary.

Fortunately, her party is swarming with willing euthanasia practitioners to assist her.

You really do have a nasty side and it is entirely unnecessary

I like to think to add a visceral and earthy realism to drab political debate.

Also, you're too sensitive.

If you prefer I can use a PB Oldie But Goodie(tm) and say May is going to get pounded like a dockside hooker?

I call out unnecessary language whenever it is used.

I am not sensitive but treat people with respect.

G, no manners in today's world, all the decency of old is ignored. UK is an oafish selfish place nowadays.

ExiledInScotland said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SandyRentool said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

grabcocque said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

grabcocque said:

So the EU have presented the final draft of the May's total capitulation to them.

It's a nice gesture that they've bothered to let her read it, it's not like anyone cares what she thinks.

You may not but many more do care what both she thinks and the cabinet agree to

Name a single person who actually cares what Theresa May thinks.

That is just silly. She is the PM and how she presents this will matter to millions. I would also point out that she is far ahead of Corbyn and is well respected by many voters who recognise the poison chalice she inherited

She didn't inherit the poison chalice - that sounds like she got lumped with sorting out Brexit. Rather, she sought it out like a politician version of Indiana Jones. I can have no sympathy for her making a dog's breakfast of the whole thing.

Public opinion perceives TM as having a poisoned chalice

Go with the Indiana Jones analogy. Has she picked up the chalice she thinks is the right one and has chosen poorly?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0H3rdfI28s0

Could be both but I cannot see anyone else wanting to be in her position tonight

Pulpstar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Media in hysteria and openly loving every minute of it

Come on now Big G, Westminster hacks LIVE for days like this !

This is where one journalist guesses something and another journalist picks it up and embellishes it, and everyone believes that it shows what they want to believe, and then another journalist overhears some junior official and makes a story out of what he thought she said, and then another embellishes it further but adds that the Irish aren't on board, and PB gets terribly excited at each twist and turn in the speculation.

dixiedean said:

Redwood. "We are numerous. We are of one mind."
Surprised it adds up to that much TBH.

They are the borg?

williamglenn said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Which Cabinet minister is going to stagger out of the one-to-one meeting literary in tears - a broken husk, inconsolable over a nation betrayed?

That raises the most pertinent question of the whole Brexit process: can we bet on this?

If I were her I'd make sure the doors between the cabinet room and the Downing Street front door are locked tomorrow to avoid anyone doing a Heseltine.

They could even do a 'double Heseltine' by walking out and saying to any journalists around
'Vote Corbyn to stop Brexit'.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Pulpstar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Media in hysteria and openly loving every minute of it

Come on now Big G, Westminster hacks LIVE for days like this !

This is where one journalist guesses something and another journalist picks it up and embellishes it, and everyone believes that it shows what they want to believe, and then another journalist overhears some junior official and makes a story out of what he thought she said, and then another embellishes it further but adds that the Irish aren't on board, and PB gets terribly excited at each twist and turn in the speculation.

Probably best to go with Tom Connelly rather than say Faisal Islam.

This is going to be top quality entertainment. What's the point in a technical agreement by diplomats if ihe poloroxoanstgey work for are so bitterly divided that the PM refuses to show them the legal advice and needs to plead with them one by one?

How many cabinet resignations can she survive?

grabcocque said:

El_Capitano said:

I wonder who'll be the first to break cover from the DUP or the ERG.

the DUP is hard to bait into acting rashly. Similar with JRM. They will calculate their counterattack and strike only when it hits hardest.

True. Steve Baker, on the other hand, is a bit of a motormouth.

Foxy said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

David_Evershed said:

i am wondering if Angela Leadsom could be the sole contender for a coronation as the new Conservative leader and PM. Tory Brexiteers do not have time for an election to take place.

Who is Angela Leadsom?

Well, as we all know, Andrea Leadsom is a mother...

https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/744908829901611008

TheScreamingEagles said:

David_Evershed said:

i am wondering if Angela Leadsom could be the sole contender for a coronation as the new Conservative leader and PM. Tory Brexiteers do not have time for an election to take place.

Who is Angela Leadsom?

Read dre for gel.

David_Evershed said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

David_Evershed said:

i am wondering if Angela Leadsom could be the sole contender for a coronation as the new Conservative leader and PM. Tory Brexiteers do not have time for an election to take place.

Who is Angela Leadsom?

Read dre for gel.

Doctor Dre?

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1062382448741416960

grabcocque said:

Guys, this is it.

The end of the beginning. The phony war is over. May has sold the Brexiteers down the river, and achieved eternal vassalage in exchange for nothing.

Now we can AT LAST start phase 2 of the Great Brexit Constitutional Crisis, civil war.

Finally.

This was supposed to begin two months ago.

The time has been well spent, sharpening the pitchforks....

So it looks like May has finally agreed the full text of the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU and is meeting Cabinet Ministers one to one tonight to go through it. So McVey and Leadsom may be potential resignations shortly.

May then needs to get it through Parliament and might well make it a confidence vote issue as Major did to get Maastricht through after losing as rebels joined with Labour initially on an amendment vote. I expect May will also withdraw the whip from ERG rebels or EUref2 rebels as Major did from Maastricht rebels in 1993

grabcocque said:

Guys, this is it.

The end of the beginning. The phony war is over. May has sold the Brexiteers down the river, and achieved eternal vassalage in exchange for nothing.

Now we can AT LAST start phase 2 of the Great Brexit Constitutional Crisis, civil war.

Finally.

This was supposed to begin two months ago.

You are beginning to sound like your icon photo in an off-the-record moment...

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1062382448741416960

If we are still in a customs union the Tories are f---ed.

Really I don't buy this. How many voters give a tinker's for the ins and outs of customs unions. It is a Brexiteer fantasy that millions of voters yearn to do a free trade deal with the US.

Now, if we still have FoM, that's another matter.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/thetimesscot/status/1062393535125745664

Meanwhile, George Osborne tucks into yet another frozen meal. Soon be enough space......

Meanwhile, across the pond:

https://twitter.com/RBReich/status/1062381658567979008

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1062394775167471617

GIN1138 said:

malcolmg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

grabcocque said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

grabcocque said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

"Understand that DUP have not seen the text yet, so as yet unknown whether it crosses any of the DUP’s “red lines”"

I think May is prepared to die on this hill if necessary.

Fortunately, her party is swarming with willing euthanasia practitioners to assist her.

You really do have a nasty side and it is entirely unnecessary

I like to think to add a visceral and earthy realism to drab political debate.

Also, you're too sensitive.

If you prefer I can use a PB Oldie But Goodie(tm) and say May is going to get pounded like a dockside hooker?

I call out unnecessary language whenever it is used.

I am not sensitive but treat people with respect.

G, no manners in today's world, all the decency of old is ignored. UK is an oafish selfish place nowadays.

Evening Malc.

What a "too doo" isn't it?

Evening Gin , it is indeed a right stramash and will be a rammy soon.

grabcocque said:

Guys, this is it.

The end of the beginning. The phony war is over. May has sold the Brexiteers down the river, and achieved eternal vassalage in exchange for nothing.

Now we can AT LAST start phase 2 of the Great Brexit Constitutional Crisis, civil war.

Finally.

This was supposed to begin two months ago.

Surely we have to go through at least three years of Jezza and Johnny Mac in Downing St before we progress to actual civil war?

grabcocque said:

HYUFD said:

So it looks like May has finally agreed the full text of the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU and is meeting Cabinet Ministers one to one tonight to go through it. So McVey and Leadsom May be potential resignations shortly.

May then needs to get it through Parliament and might well make it a confidence vote issue as Major did to get Maastricht through

FTPA prevents that. The *only* thing that counts as a confidence issue is a specific motion of no confidence, moved in accordance with the act.

Which, of course, gives the DUP and Brexiteers complete freedom to vote against this knowing it won't directly cause the government to fall.

That said. IF the rumours are correct, and May has sold out the DUP, I wouldn't be surprised if the DUP moved a motion of no confidence in her tomorrow.

That is precisely what May will do, a no confidence vote as Major did in 1993 and all the rebels bar the diehards will fold exactly as happened then.

May will say she is prepared for a general election on a manifesto for her Deal and will not change from that position

grabcocque said:

I wish there were a way to bet on how long May's "leak proof" reading room will take to spring a leak.

All they have to do is memorise the bit that sends them apoplectic and then tweet it later.

grabcocque said:

I wish there were a way to bet on how long May's "leak proof" reading room will take to spring a leak.

Well, half the commentariat, two thirds of politicians, and 98% of PB seem to have formed a view on the text without the inconvenience of having to actually read it, so leaks seem to be superfluous.

https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1062396423390613504

HYUFD said:

grabcocque said:

HYUFD said:

So it looks like May has finally agreed the full text of the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU and is meeting Cabinet Ministers one to one tonight to go through it. So McVey and Leadsom May be potential resignations shortly.

May then needs to get it through Parliament and might well make it a confidence vote issue as Major did to get Maastricht through

FTPA prevents that. The *only* thing that counts as a confidence issue is a specific motion of no confidence, moved in accordance with the act.

Which, of course, gives the DUP and Brexiteers complete freedom to vote against this knowing it won't directly cause the government to fall.

That said. IF the rumours are correct, and May has sold out the DUP, I wouldn't be surprised if the DUP moved a motion of no confidence in her tomorrow.

That is precisely what May will do, a no confidence vote as Major did in 1993 and all the rebels bar the diehards will fold exactly as happened then.

May will say she is prepared for a general election on a manifesto for her Deal and will not change from that position

Except the VONC will happen first?

Richard_Nabavi said:

grabcocque said:

I wish there were a way to bet on how long May's "leak proof" reading room will take to spring a leak.

Well, half the commentariat, two thirds of politicians, and 98% of PB seem to have formed a view on the text without the inconvenience of having to actually read it, so leaks seem to be superfluous.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1062396423390613504

Hold on, has Rees Mogg read the document yet ?

HYUFD said:

grabcocque said:

HYUFD said:

So it looks like May has finally agreed the full text of the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU and is meeting Cabinet Ministers one to one tonight to go through it. So McVey and Leadsom May be potential resignations shortly.

May then needs to get it through Parliament and might well make it a confidence vote issue as Major did to get Maastricht through

FTPA prevents that. The *only* thing that counts as a confidence issue is a specific motion of no confidence, moved in accordance with the act.

Which, of course, gives the DUP and Brexiteers complete freedom to vote against this knowing it won't directly cause the government to fall.

That said. IF the rumours are correct, and May has sold out the DUP, I wouldn't be surprised if the DUP moved a motion of no confidence in her tomorrow.

That is precisely what May will do, a no confidence vote as Major did in 1993 and all the rebels bar the diehards will fold exactly as happened then.

May will say she is prepared for a general election on a manifesto for her Deal and will not change from that position

FTPA makes it much harder for Mrs May to turn this into a confidence vote than in Major's day.

Like it can be a confidence vote in her, but the Prime Minister falling doesn't meant the government isn't secure.

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1062397324922703875

Sean_F said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/1062396423390613504

And, he didn't even have to read it.

Jacob is just *that* clever. Mind you, given May's form, I don't really need to read it either.

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

grabcocque said:

HYUFD said:

So it looks like May has finally agreed the full text of the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU and is meeting Cabinet Ministers one to one tonight to go through it. So McVey and Leadsom May be potential resignations shortly.

May then needs to get it through Parliament and might well make it a confidence vote issue as Major did to get Maastricht through

FTPA prevents that. The *only* thing that counts as a confidence issue is a specific motion of no confidence, moved in accordance with the act.

Which, of course, gives the DUP and Brexiteers complete freedom to vote against this knowing it won't directly cause the government to fall.

That said. IF the rumours are correct, and May has sold out the DUP, I wouldn't be surprised if the DUP moved a motion of no confidence in her tomorrow.

That is precisely what May will do, a no confidence vote as Major did in 1993 and all the rebels bar the diehards will fold exactly as happened then.

May will say she is prepared for a general election on a manifesto for her Deal and will not change from that position

Except the VONC will happen first?

If May wins that as she almost certainly will she is safe for a year and cannot be challenged.

Remember she only needs 50.01% of Tory MPs and 50.2% voted for her even in just the first round in 2016 and 60% in the second.

Only 120 Tory MPs backed Leave

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1062398112994680834

https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1062398153431879680

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

grabcocque said:

HYUFD said:

So it looks like May has finally agreed the full text of the Withdrawal Agreement with the EU and is meeting Cabinet Ministers one to one tonight to go through it. So McVey and Leadsom May be potential resignations shortly.

May then needs to get it through Parliament and might well make it a confidence vote issue as Major did to get Maastricht through

FTPA prevents that. The *only* thing that counts as a confidence issue is a specific motion of no confidence, moved in accordance with the act.

Which, of course, gives the DUP and Brexiteers complete freedom to vote against this knowing it won't directly cause the government to fall.

That said. IF the rumours are correct, and May has sold out the DUP, I wouldn't be surprised if the DUP moved a motion of no confidence in her tomorrow.

That is precisely what May will do, a no confidence vote as Major did in 1993 and all the rebels bar the diehards will fold exactly as happened then.

May will say she is prepared for a general election on a manifesto for her Deal and will not change from that position

FTPA makes it much harder for Mrs May to turn this into a confidence vote than in Major's day.

Like it can be a confidence vote in her, but the Prime Minister falling doesn't meant the government isn't secure.

Unless 50%+ of Tory MPs no confidence her inevitably it will be a vote of no confidence in the government too