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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the eve of TMay’s meeting with her MPs punters make it a 21

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But I also compare Brexit to Operation Musketeer.
Much like fighting a war alongside with France guarantees defeat (cf Suez) Brexit was similarly doomed when Mrs May appointed David Davis, Boris Johnson, and the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox to key Brexit jobs.
David Davis is doomed.
They will be slaughtered at the GE, and nothing they say about this is what the people wanted will make a jot of difference.
Not that they are the only ones playing politics. but several dozen Labour MPs are the only chance the government has.
Anyone?
*TURNING* into a cesspit"????
Sounds desperate...
Charles might be able to clarify better.
Also about Gove and Dom Cummings.
What if, what if:
- Brexit is every bit as bad as the worst fears
- Yet it only moves the polls by a couple of points
ATHOS: Leader of the three musketeers. Full of shadows, intelligent, courageous; precise in his sword fighting.
PORTHOS: One of the three musketeers. Humorous, vain, slave to fashion, good-hearted; comical and jaunty in his sword fighting.
ARAMIS: One of the three musketeers. Romantic, handsome, hot tempered, studying to be a priest; melodramatic in his swordfighting.
D’ARTAGNAN: Our hero; eighteen years old. Raised in French province of Gascony, leaves home to go to Paris. Brave, excellent swordsman, and enthusiastic to become a musketeer but also impulsive, hotheaded, and inexperienced. Falls in love with Constance Bonacieux.
So who is who?
Davis, Johnson, Fox, May.
Athos, Porthos, Aramis, D'Artagnan.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/10/23/not-late-save-brexit-pm-would-abandon-bunker-start-listening/
The UK can allow drugs to pass the border subject to whatever procedures they wish, so there need be no delays on that account.
The ‘fear’ seems to be that the UK supplies chemicals to the EU which are then made into drugs and re-imported and the EU could impose controls at their borders to mess up the supply chains. That would seem to make no sense, because it would simply damage EU suppliers. If they can’t supply the drugs, they will lose money and the UK will simply buy them elsewhere. The costs in adding stock in the supply chain to compensate would seem to fall to EU companies.
The ‘issue’ seems to be that May has told the Government that we will not change our border processes after Brexit and will charge EU tariffs on all goods. That is utterly stupid, but I suspect the Civil Service have pushed her to say this so they can keep the scare campaign going.
In other news, May has lost control of the Cabinet. The Leavers have realised that the Remainers are lying and will agree to a permanent backstop. Well, that was never going to end well.
Nothing is ever as bad as people's "worst fears"...
Meanwhile the Mail reports the EU is now ready to offer May a UK wide Customs Union to make breakthrough in Brexit talks and solve the Irish border issue, although the NI backstop would remain
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6308325/EU-set-offer-UK-wide-customs-deal-bid-solve-Brexit-talks.html
The true believers will blame the EU for anything that goes wrong, and the alternative will still be Jeremy Corbyn.
Food prices are lower than they were five years ago:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/d7c8/mm23
but between 2006 and 2013 they rose by over 40%.
So around 2006 might have been the low point for food compared to wages.
Yet I don't remember food prices rising so much before, during and after the recession or why they did so.
OK. Good to know. I was worried for a bit.
Turnout, for an American midterm is going to be mega. It is such a out of the blue thing it totally messes with the polling as pollsters turnout models are going to be flat out wrong.
And relationship between the polls and actual real results will be pure fluke.
Indeed you have to go back to 1914 to find the last time a US midterm election saw over 50% of voters turning out
http://www.electproject.org/national-1789-present
Also I wonder if as many people will think that voting Labour will lead to student debts being written off next time as there were in 2017.
And overall none of the political parties have improved their credibility over the last year.
Not to mention threads endlessly debating - pointlessly - how many people went on a march.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1054848887943520256
... how about giving the political equivalents of the four Banana Splits.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMl6HnhFFIA
Lying Ted -> Beautiful/Texas Ted
My betting in 2016 in Nevada was based on historical voter registration ratios. As it was Trump hit the upper limit of Republican vote to voter registration performance and Hilary dipped below the Dem low end but such was the Dem advantage it was never going to be any thing other than a Presidential Dem win in 2016.
Hard to say what will happen after Brexit's become a reality. In theory, Corbyn should reappear out of the woodwork and see off the Mingian threat. (Not difficult, surely.)
Concerns are growing over Beijing’s influence on the most vulnerable member of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance. Bernard Lagan reports"
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/pure-new-zealand-is-in-thrall-to-the-chinese-fear-analysts-k89krrbqg