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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the eve of TMay’s meeting with her MPs punters make it a 21% chance they she’ll be out this year

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RobD

First!

TheScreamingEagles

FPT

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

In more uplifting news, I've already got a new job which means six months of paid gardening leave.

Hurrah, I won't be a doley.

I'm sure ConHome will take on a very different line once you take over as editor.

I'm going to be the new deputy editor of the Daily Mail.

Congrats on the new job.

I'm looking forward to seeing you troll the French.

I'm trolling the French this very weekend in one of my threads.

I troll them twice in fact.

If we veto the Brexit deal and decide to remain in the EU, we'll finally get our own back for being snubbed by De Gaulle.

The final line of the piece is 'If you're in doubt about the wisdom of remaining in the EU just remember the French repeatedly vetoed our original membership of the EC, that alone demands our continued membership.'

But I also compare Brexit to Operation Musketeer.

Much like fighting a war alongside with France guarantees defeat (cf Suez) Brexit was similarly doomed when Mrs May appointed David Davis, Boris Johnson, and the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox to key Brexit jobs.

SandyRentool

Looks like laying during the Moggasm was a profitable strategy.

ydoethur

That seems low, even given how close to the end of the year we're getting.

TheScreamingEagles

Apparently the Mayites have been telling Tory MPs a coronation for David Davis means Stewart Jackson as Number 10 Chief of Staff.

David Davis is doomed.

williamglenn

FPT

Casino_Royale said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Surprised to see no discussion of Italy. The Commission rejecting an elected government's budget, only for the government to basically say "bugger off we don't care what you think" is setting up a rather interesting clash.

Meanwhile, France gets excused from meeting its Maastricht criteria by the President of the EU Commission "because it's France."

The whole thing stinks.

To think there's more than a few Leavers who think a no deal/WTO Brexit means we eventually end up joining the Euro.

The Brexit vote has already led to 700,000 people marching under the EU flag through London. It wouldn't have been possible without the Leavers.

There weren't 700,000 people marching.

You need to get over this and accept this.

And no true patriotic Briton should be marching under the traitor's apron

I think people born before 1973 can legitimately vote for Brexit without the stench of treachery, but those born afterwards are betraying their birthright.

kle4

21% sounds reasonable. Not to be dismissed, but the lack of movement despite cutting words to date make it seem unlikely. I do think it's a little more likely than that though, maybe more like 30%.

williamglenn

TheScreamingEagles said:

Apparently the Mayites have been telling Tory MPs a coronation for David Davis means Stewart Jackson as Number 10 Chief of Staff.

David Davis is doomed.

Arron Banks is trying to say that the stabby-noosey comments are a false flag by a Remainer to discredit Brexit.

Gallowgate

So is this vote tomorrow on abortion in NI (is it even happening?) meaningful? Is it actual legislation?

kle4

Cyclefree said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RochdalePioneers said:

We need a betting post with odds on what TSEs new job is.

Congratulations on the non-relocation mate, one of those life-changing job decisions. Frankfurt could have worked, but at what cost?

It's like Chandler's job in Friends, no one can quite remember what it is.

Unofficially my current job was described as 'Head of Stopping Major Fuck Ups', I ruthlessly delegated minor fuck ups.

Have you perhaps gone into partnership with @Cyclefree?

We would of course be an awesome team!

One day, perhaps......

If you both need a flunkey I would be happy to oblige. I can fetch the tea for important people like anybody's business.

TheScreamingEagles

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Apparently the Mayites have been telling Tory MPs a coronation for David Davis means Stewart Jackson as Number 10 Chief of Staff.

David Davis is doomed.

Arron Banks is trying to say that the stabby-noosey comments are a false flag by a Remainer to discredit Brexit.

A friend and former Tory operative screenshotted one of my WhatsApp texts from October 2014 about Mark Reckless and reminded me that in comparison the stabby-noosey comments were rather benign and polite.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/mutablejoe/status/1054834852401422336

rottenborough

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/mutablejoe/status/1054834852401422336

If we run out of food and vital meds next March, the Tories are utterly f***ed for a generation.

They will be slaughtered at the GE, and nothing they say about this is what the people wanted will make a jot of difference.

kle4

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/mutablejoe/status/1054834852401422336

Not on the nationalisation point, but I'd think these messages are more for Labour MPs. A lot of people claim to be against no deal, but also are refusing point blank to back any deal this government comes up with, on rather optimistic assumptions that some other solution will work out. Which is not impossible, but is not as easy as they might think. So really playing up very hard how bad it will be asks of them 'Are you really going to play politics with this and back, in effect, no deal?'.

Not that they are the only ones playing politics. but several dozen Labour MPs are the only chance the government has.

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Apparently the Mayites have been telling Tory MPs a coronation for David Davis means Stewart Jackson as Number 10 Chief of Staff.

David Davis is doomed.

Arron Banks is trying to say that the stabby-noosey comments are a false flag by a Remainer to discredit Brexit.

A friend and former Tory operative screenshotted one of my WhatsApp texts from October 2014 about Mark Reckless and reminded me that in comparison the stabby-noosey comments were rather benign and polite.

So long as they do not become a Tory and former friend then I'm sure they won't see the light of day and you'll be fine.

Recidivist

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/mutablejoe/status/1054834852401422336

It does really make you understand why the hard left have always been so keen on Brexit.

kle4

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/mutablejoe/status/1054834852401422336

If we run out of food and vital meds next March, the Tories are utterly f***ed for a generation.

They will be slaughtered at the GE, and nothing they say about this is what the people wanted will make a jot of difference.

Quite wrong. They won't be slaughtered, they'll be marmalized. It goes on a bit longer than a slaughter.

Alistair

Anywhere offering markets on USA election turnout? It is surely going to be mega given the early voting we are seeing. Two of Texas most populous counties had higher first day early voting than 2016

TheScreamingEagles

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Apparently the Mayites have been telling Tory MPs a coronation for David Davis means Stewart Jackson as Number 10 Chief of Staff.

David Davis is doomed.

Arron Banks is trying to say that the stabby-noosey comments are a false flag by a Remainer to discredit Brexit.

A friend and former Tory operative screenshotted one of my WhatsApp texts from October 2014 about Mark Reckless and reminded me that in comparison the stabby-noosey comments were rather benign and polite.

So long as they do not become a Tory and former friend then I'm sure they won't see the light of day and you'll be fine.

Our friendship has survived him doing the bidding of France and voting Leave.

RochdalePioneers

As a response to the national emergency perhaps the Tories will need to nationalise TSE?

GIN1138

FPT

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1054814979990405121

I still don't get the medicines thing?

If EU countries for whatever reason don't want to sell the NHS their medicines why can't we just buy them from other countries outside the EU?

Anyone?

GIN1138

FPT 2:

John_M said:

My parting shot: I really don't like 'traitor' epithet being bandied around by either side. I'd hate to think PB was turning into yet another Internet cesspit. Good night all.

*TURNING* into a cesspit"????

GIN1138

TheScreamingEagles said:

Apparently the Mayites have been telling Tory MPs a coronation for David Davis means Stewart Jackson as Number 10 Chief of Staff.

David Davis is doomed.

Sounds desperate...

TheScreamingEagles

GIN1138 said:

FPT

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1054814979990405121

I still don't get the medicines thing?

If EU countries for whatever reason don't want to sell the NHS their medicines why can't we just buy them from other countries outside the EU?

Anyone?

If I understand it correctly under no deal, there's going to be queues at ports/airports so there's going to be hold ups no matter what where the meds come from, and not all non EU meds are approved to be dispensed in the UK.

Charles might be able to clarify better.

TheScreamingEagles

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Apparently the Mayites have been telling Tory MPs a coronation for David Davis means Stewart Jackson as Number 10 Chief of Staff.

David Davis is doomed.

Sounds desperate...

Other leadership contenders have been making the same point.

Also about Gove and Dom Cummings.

rottenborough

Alistair said:

Anywhere offering markets on USA election turnout? It is surely going to be mega given the early voting we are seeing. Two of Texas most populous counties had higher first day early voting than 2016

https://twitter.com/databyler/status/1054744375564136448

Benpointer

GIN1138 said:

FPT

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1054814979990405121

I still don't get the medicines thing?

If EU countries for whatever reason don't want to sell the NHS their medicines why can't we just buy them from other countries outside the EU?

Anyone?

I'm only guessing but I suspect the logistics of switching suppliers for a miriad of meds will be very disruptive.

Stereotomy

I feel like 2020 is very undervalued in this market. Especially in the scenario that the 48 letters go in but she wins the vonc.

williamglenn

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Apparently the Mayites have been telling Tory MPs a coronation for David Davis means Stewart Jackson as Number 10 Chief of Staff.

David Davis is doomed.

Sounds desperate...

Other leadership contenders have been making the same point.

Also about Gove and Dom Cummings.

Presumably if Jacob Rees-Mogg wins, nanny will get the gig.

Benpointer

GIN1138 said:

FPT 2:

John_M said:

My parting shot: I really don't like 'traitor' epithet being bandied around by either side. I'd hate to think PB was turning into yet another Internet cesspit. Good night all.

*TURNING* into a cesspit"????

Have you looked at Order-Order comments recently? You might need to re-calibrate your cesspit-ometer.

Gallowgate

It works both ways. The company I work for manufactures (in the UK) and sells product to pharmaceutical companies across the EU. These products are validated into processes and cant simply be changed overnight.

Pro_Rata

As a final thought

What if, what if:

- Brexit is every bit as bad as the worst fears
- Yet it only moves the polls by a couple of points

another_richard

Benpointer said:

GIN1138 said:

FPT 2:

John_M said:

My parting shot: I really don't like 'traitor' epithet being bandied around by either side. I'd hate to think PB was turning into yet another Internet cesspit. Good night all.

*TURNING* into a cesspit"????

Have you looked at Order-Order comments recently? You might need to re-calibrate your cesspit-ometer.

Surely its not got worse ?

Benpointer

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Apparently the Mayites have been telling Tory MPs a coronation for David Davis means Stewart Jackson as Number 10 Chief of Staff.

David Davis is doomed.

Sounds desperate...

Other leadership contenders have been making the same point.

Also about Gove and Dom Cummings.

Presumably if Jacob Rees-Mogg wins, nanny will get the gig.

Maybe he has someone else in mind?

kle4

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Apparently the Mayites have been telling Tory MPs a coronation for David Davis means Stewart Jackson as Number 10 Chief of Staff.

David Davis is doomed.

Sounds desperate...

Other leadership contenders have been making the same point.

Also about Gove and Dom Cummings.

Presumably if Jacob Rees-Mogg wins, nanny will get the gig.

Well, would she do a worse job?

Anazina

Casino Royale, utterly obsessed with the numbers on Saturday’s march, using epithets like “traitor” and “Gallic twats” in the last week. A living, breathing reminder of why we voted Remain.

stjohn

TheScreamingEagles said:

FPT

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

In more uplifting news, I've already got a new job which means six months of paid gardening leave.

Hurrah, I won't be a doley.

I'm sure ConHome will take on a very different line once you take over as editor.

I'm going to be the new deputy editor of the Daily Mail.

Congrats on the new job.

I'm looking forward to seeing you troll the French.

I'm trolling the French this very weekend in one of my threads.

I troll them twice in fact.

If we veto the Brexit deal and decide to remain in the EU, we'll finally get our own back for being snubbed by De Gaulle.

The final line of the piece is 'If you're in doubt about the wisdom of remaining in the EU just remember the French repeatedly vetoed our original membership of the EC, that alone demands our continued membership.'

But I also compare Brexit to Operation Musketeer.

Much like fighting a war alongside with France guarantees defeat (cf Suez) Brexit was similarly doomed when Mrs May appointed David Davis, Boris Johnson, and the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox to key Brexit jobs.

I read the whole series of "Three Musketeers" books in my youth and really enjoyed them - but now of course I can't remember the details. However I have found this on line from the "Utah Shakespeare festival".

ATHOS: Leader of the three musketeers. Full of shadows, intelligent, courageous; precise in his sword fighting.

PORTHOS: One of the three musketeers. Humorous, vain, slave to fashion, good-hearted; comical and jaunty in his sword fighting.

ARAMIS: One of the three musketeers. Romantic, handsome, hot tempered, studying to be a priest; melodramatic in his swordfighting.

D’ARTAGNAN: Our hero; eighteen years old. Raised in French province of Gascony, leaves home to go to Paris. Brave, excellent swordsman, and enthusiastic to become a musketeer but also impulsive, hotheaded, and inexperienced. Falls in love with Constance Bonacieux.

So who is who?

Davis, Johnson, Fox, May.

Athos, Porthos, Aramis, D'Artagnan.

kle4

another_richard said:

Benpointer said:

GIN1138 said:

FPT 2:

John_M said:

My parting shot: I really don't like 'traitor' epithet being bandied around by either side. I'd hate to think PB was turning into yet another Internet cesspit. Good night all.

*TURNING* into a cesspit"????

Have you looked at Order-Order comments recently? You might need to re-calibrate your cesspit-ometer.

Surely its not got worse ?

Took a glance at the latest one and it actually seemed relatively civil. Though when Guido has put up several stories lambasting the horribleness of sections of it and plans to tackle it, it must have been very bad at times.

another_richard

Stereotomy said:

I feel like 2020 is very undervalued in this market. Especially in the scenario that the 48 letters go in but she wins the vonc.

I think you may be right.

williamglenn

The last remaining hope of the Brexiteers - the Norway option - has just been endorsed by... Stewart Jackson.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/10/23/not-late-save-brexit-pm-would-abandon-bunker-start-listening/

archer101au

Benpointer said:

GIN1138 said:

FPT

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1054814979990405121

I still don't get the medicines thing?

If EU countries for whatever reason don't want to sell the NHS their medicines why can't we just buy them from other countries outside the EU?

Anyone?

I'm only guessing but I suspect the logistics of switching suppliers for a miriad of meds will be very disruptive.

I can’t understand it either and have never seen a rational explanation.

The UK can allow drugs to pass the border subject to whatever procedures they wish, so there need be no delays on that account.

The ‘fear’ seems to be that the UK supplies chemicals to the EU which are then made into drugs and re-imported and the EU could impose controls at their borders to mess up the supply chains. That would seem to make no sense, because it would simply damage EU suppliers. If they can’t supply the drugs, they will lose money and the UK will simply buy them elsewhere. The costs in adding stock in the supply chain to compensate would seem to fall to EU companies.

The ‘issue’ seems to be that May has told the Government that we will not change our border processes after Brexit and will charge EU tariffs on all goods. That is utterly stupid, but I suspect the Civil Service have pushed her to say this so they can keep the scare campaign going.

In other news, May has lost control of the Cabinet. The Leavers have realised that the Remainers are lying and will agree to a permanent backstop. Well, that was never going to end well.

another_richard

Anazina said:

Casino Royale, utterly obsessed with the numbers on Saturday’s march, using epithets like “traitor” and “Gallic twats” in the last week. A living, breathing reminder of why we voted Remain.

I wonder how many PBers vote a certain way because another PBer has annoyed them so much.

currystar

Going back to the food shortage chat due to no migrant workers on the previous thread, my local Tescos Is so awash with fruit and veg that it is almost giving it away the prices are so low, I have never known a time when food is so cheap compared to the average wage.

Floater

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

FPT

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1054814979990405121

I still don't get the medicines thing?

If EU countries for whatever reason don't want to sell the NHS their medicines why can't we just buy them from other countries outside the EU?

Anyone?

If I understand it correctly under no deal, there's going to be queues at ports/airports so there's going to be hold ups no matter what where the meds come from, and not all non EU meds are approved to be dispensed in the UK.

Charles might be able to clarify better.

So, if there are going to be queues at ports the cunning plan is ... hire more ships?

solarflare

stjohn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FPT

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

In more uplifting news, I've already got a new job which means six months of paid gardening leave.

Hurrah, I won't be a doley.

I'm sure ConHome will take on a very different line once you take over as editor.

I'm going to be the new deputy editor of the Daily Mail.

Congrats on the new job.

I'm looking forward to seeing you troll the French.

I'm trolling the French this very weekend in one of my threads.

I troll them twice in fact.

If we veto the Brexit deal and decide to remain in the EU, we'll finally get our own back for being snubbed by De Gaulle.

The final line of the piece is 'If you're in doubt about the wisdom of remaining in the EU just remember the French repeatedly vetoed our original membership of the EC, that alone demands our continued membership.'

But I also compare Brexit to Operation Musketeer.

Much like fighting a war alongside with France guarantees defeat (cf Suez) Brexit was similarly doomed when Mrs May appointed David Davis, Boris Johnson, and the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox to key Brexit jobs.

I read the whole series of "Three Musketeers" books in my youth and really enjoyed them - but now of course I can't remember the details. However I have found this on line from the "Utah Shakespeare festival".

ATHOS: Leader of the three musketeers. Full of shadows, intelligent, courageous; precise in his sword fighting.

PORTHOS: One of the three musketeers. Humorous, vain, slave to fashion, good-hearted; comical and jaunty in his sword fighting.

ARAMIS: One of the three musketeers. Romantic, handsome, hot tempered, studying to be a priest; melodramatic in his swordfighting.

D’ARTAGNAN: Our hero; eighteen years old. Raised in French province of Gascony, leaves home to go to Paris. Brave, excellent swordsman, and enthusiastic to become a musketeer but also impulsive, hotheaded, and inexperienced. Falls in love with Constance Bonacieux.

So who is who?

Davis, Johnson, Fox, May.

Athos, Porthos, Aramis, D'Artagnan.

More like the Muskehounds, without the catchy theme tune.

GIN1138

Pro_Rata said:

As a final thought

What if, what if:

- Brexit is every bit as bad as the worst fears
- Yet it only moves the polls by a couple of points

Nothing is ever as bad as people's "worst fears"...

MTimT

Any attention being paid to the EU rejecting Italy's budget?

stjohn

solarflare said:

stjohn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FPT

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

In more uplifting news, I've already got a new job which means six months of paid gardening leave.

Hurrah, I won't be a doley.

I'm sure ConHome will take on a very different line once you take over as editor.

I'm going to be the new deputy editor of the Daily Mail.

Congrats on the new job.

I'm looking forward to seeing you troll the French.

I'm trolling the French this very weekend in one of my threads.

I troll them twice in fact.

If we veto the Brexit deal and decide to remain in the EU, we'll finally get our own back for being snubbed by De Gaulle.

The final line of the piece is 'If you're in doubt about the wisdom of remaining in the EU just remember the French repeatedly vetoed our original membership of the EC, that alone demands our continued membership.'

But I also compare Brexit to Operation Musketeer.

Much like fighting a war alongside with France guarantees defeat (cf Suez) Brexit was similarly doomed when Mrs May appointed David Davis, Boris Johnson, and the disgraced national security risk Liam Fox to key Brexit jobs.

I read the whole series of "Three Musketeers" books in my youth and really enjoyed them - but now of course I can't remember the details. However I have found this on line from the "Utah Shakespeare festival".

ATHOS: Leader of the three musketeers. Full of shadows, intelligent, courageous; precise in his sword fighting.

PORTHOS: One of the three musketeers. Humorous, vain, slave to fashion, good-hearted; comical and jaunty in his sword fighting.

ARAMIS: One of the three musketeers. Romantic, handsome, hot tempered, studying to be a priest; melodramatic in his swordfighting.

D’ARTAGNAN: Our hero; eighteen years old. Raised in French province of Gascony, leaves home to go to Paris. Brave, excellent swordsman, and enthusiastic to become a musketeer but also impulsive, hotheaded, and inexperienced. Falls in love with Constance Bonacieux.

So who is who?

Davis, Johnson, Fox, May.

Athos, Porthos, Aramis, D'Artagnan.

More like the Muskehounds, without the catchy theme tune.

Yes. I wasn't seeing an obvious match between any of the heroic but mildly flawed fictional characters and their real life presumptive political counterparts.

kle4

MTimT said:

Any attention being paid to the EU rejecting Italy's budget?

Waiting to see how the Italians respond in the coming weeks I suspect, and the EU thereafter.

Anazina

V

another_richard said:

Anazina said:

Casino Royale, utterly obsessed with the numbers on Saturday’s march, using epithets like “traitor” and “Gallic twats” in the last week. A living, breathing reminder of why we voted Remain.

I wonder how many PBers vote a certain way because another PBer has annoyed them so much.

Very few, I would hope. Yet many do very little to dissuade. This is a case in point.

HYUFD

Provided May gets a Deal she will survive, perhaps right up to 2022.

Meanwhile the Mail reports the EU is now ready to offer May a UK wide Customs Union to make breakthrough in Brexit talks and solve the Irish border issue, although the NI backstop would remain

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6308325/EU-set-offer-UK-wide-customs-deal-bid-solve-Brexit-talks.html

Pro_Rata

GIN1138 said:

Pro_Rata said:

As a final thought

What if, what if:

- Brexit is every bit as bad as the worst fears
- Yet it only moves the polls by a couple of points

Nothing is ever as bad as people's "worst fears"...

Oh dear. Have I just lowered the bar again on what you guys will regard as a successful Brexit

edmundintokyo

kle4 said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/mutablejoe/status/1054834852401422336

If we run out of food and vital meds next March, the Tories are utterly f***ed for a generation.

They will be slaughtered at the GE, and nothing they say about this is what the people wanted will make a jot of difference.

Quite wrong. They won't be slaughtered, they'll be marmalized. It goes on a bit longer than a slaughter.

I'm not sure about this, maybe nothing matters any more. The government is already a ridiculous divided shitshow and their polling is great.

The true believers will blame the EU for anything that goes wrong, and the alternative will still be Jeremy Corbyn.

another_richard

currystar said:

Going back to the food shortage chat due to no migrant workers on the previous thread, my local Tescos Is so awash with fruit and veg that it is almost giving it away the prices are so low, I have never known a time when food is so cheap compared to the average wage.

Careful of bringing too much real world into this discussion

Food prices are lower than they were five years ago:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/timeseries/d7c8/mm23

but between 2006 and 2013 they rose by over 40%.

So around 2006 might have been the low point for food compared to wages.

Yet I don't remember food prices rising so much before, during and after the recession or why they did so.

viewcode

Alistair said:

Anywhere offering markets on USA election turnout? It is surely going to be mega given the early voting we are seeing. Two of Texas most populous counties had higher first day early voting than 2016

https://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/american/group_b.7f2e61b9-fbfb-452e-af7f-fef92bb2e1f4/us-senate-mid-term-elections-overall-turnout

rottenborough

https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1054837390798413825

kle4

edmundintokyo said:

kle4 said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/mutablejoe/status/1054834852401422336

If we run out of food and vital meds next March, the Tories are utterly f***ed for a generation.

They will be slaughtered at the GE, and nothing they say about this is what the people wanted will make a jot of difference.

Quite wrong. They won't be slaughtered, they'll be marmalized. It goes on a bit longer than a slaughter.

I'm not sure about this, maybe nothing matters any more. The government is already a ridiculous divided shitshow and their polling is great.

The true believers will blame the EU for anything that goes wrong, and the alternative will still be Jeremy Corbyn.

The polling is pretty baffling. I still cannot see any way the Tories don't get hammered if there is an early GE, which is why it will be so hard for Labour to get one, and after that, IDK, I just don't see how a government which while polling ok currently is not super popular, would be able to not be destroyed by a genuine period of damaging crisis. Even if it was completely blameless for that happening, for the sake of argument, I just find it hard to believe an electorate that has already voted 40% for the opposition, would not turn even more to that opposition, again fairly or reasonably or not, in a post crisis GE.

viewcode

GIN1138 said:

Nothing is ever as bad as people's "worst fears"...

So Brexit as not as bad as being burned to death.

OK. Good to know. I was worried for a bit.

Alistair

rottenborough said:

Alistair said:

Anywhere offering markets on USA election turnout? It is surely going to be mega given the early voting we are seeing. Two of Texas most populous counties had higher first day early voting than 2016

https://twitter.com/databyler/status/1054744375564136448

I'm not trying to predict who will win, I'm trying to predict turnout. I'm looking at places that have not had significant change in their early voting laws from 2016 to now (always a huge Confounder with American elections as they are constantly shifting).

Turnout, for an American midterm is going to be mega. It is such a out of the blue thing it totally messes with the polling as pollsters turnout models are going to be flat out wrong.

And relationship between the polls and actual real results will be pure fluke.

Stark_Dawning

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1054837390798413825

This looks terrible. Someone, Liam perhaps, needs to don his Sir Walter Raleigh doublet and hose and say this was the plan all along: O saviours of the sea, British boys are we!

viewcode

solarflare said:

More like the Muskehounds, without the catchy theme tune.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFWst8c_Cvk&pbjreload=10

HYUFD

Alistair said:

rottenborough said:

Alistair said:

Anywhere offering markets on USA election turnout? It is surely going to be mega given the early voting we are seeing. Two of Texas most populous counties had higher first day early voting than 2016

https://twitter.com/databyler/status/1054744375564136448

I'm not trying to predict who will win, I'm trying to predict turnout. I'm looking at places that have not had significant change in their early voting laws from 2016 to now (always a huge Confounder with American elections as they are constantly shifting).

Turnout, for an American midterm is going to be mega. It is such a out of the blue thing it totally messes with the polling as pollsters turnout models are going to be flat out wrong.

And relationship between the polls and actual real results will be pure fluke.

Since when has early voting ever given much conclusive proof of the actual result in a US election? I also refuse to believe turnout will be over 50%, turnout in midterms is always about 35-45% whatever early voting may show. In the case of turnout they are not that different to UK local elections.


Indeed you have to go back to 1914 to find the last time a US midterm election saw over 50% of voters turning out

http://www.electproject.org/national-1789-present

Benpointer

viewcode said:

GIN1138 said:

Nothing is ever as bad as people's "worst fears"...

So Brexit as not as bad as being burned to death.

OK. Good to know. I was worried for a bit.

Was that mentioned on the side of a bus?

MTimT

kle4 said:

MTimT said:

Any attention being paid to the EU rejecting Italy's budget?

Waiting to see how the Italians respond in the coming weeks I suspect, and the EU thereafter.

There has to be a high chance the Italians will submit another budget that the EU won't accept.

another_richard

kle4 said:

edmundintokyo said:

kle4 said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/mutablejoe/status/1054834852401422336

If we run out of food and vital meds next March, the Tories are utterly f***ed for a generation.

They will be slaughtered at the GE, and nothing they say about this is what the people wanted will make a jot of difference.

Quite wrong. They won't be slaughtered, they'll be marmalized. It goes on a bit longer than a slaughter.

I'm not sure about this, maybe nothing matters any more. The government is already a ridiculous divided shitshow and their polling is great.

The true believers will blame the EU for anything that goes wrong, and the alternative will still be Jeremy Corbyn.

The polling is pretty baffling. I still cannot see any way the Tories don't get hammered if there is an early GE, which is why it will be so hard for Labour to get one, and after that, IDK, I just don't see how a government which while polling ok currently is not super popular, would be able to not be destroyed by a genuine period of damaging crisis. Even if it was completely blameless for that happening, for the sake of argument, I just find it hard to believe an electorate that has already voted 40% for the opposition, would not turn even more to that opposition, again fairly or reasonably or not, in a post crisis GE.

There's the aspect that in 2017 some people might have thought that voting Labour was an easy protest.

Also I wonder if as many people will think that voting Labour will lead to student debts being written off next time as there were in 2017.

And overall none of the political parties have improved their credibility over the last year.

OldMotherHubbard

Is anybody else now finding the whole Brexit/Will she leave or will she stay?/Who is there at the top of the Tory Party who could do any better? question not only profoundly boring but profoundly depressing as well? The whole lot of them - and I speak as a life-long Tory - are nothing but a bunch of total nincompetentpoops.

Alistair

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

rottenborough said:

Alistair said:

Anywhere offering markets on USA election turnout? It is surely going to be mega given the early voting we are seeing. Two of Texas most populous counties had higher first day early voting than 2016

https://twitter.com/databyler/status/1054744375564136448

I'm not trying to predict who will win, I'm trying to predict turnout. I'm looking at places that have not had significant change in their early voting laws from 2016 to now (always a huge Confounder with American elections as they are constantly shifting).

Turnout, for an American midterm is going to be mega. It is such a out of the blue thing it totally messes with the polling as pollsters turnout models are going to be flat out wrong.

And relationship between the polls and actual real results will be pure fluke.

Since when has early voting ever given much conclusive proof of the actual result in a US election? I also refuse to believe turnout will be over 50%, turnout in midterms is always about 35-45% whatever early voting may show

Nevada early voting gives a near perfect look intoo final results. Heck, voter registration alone is pretty much enough to call the state.

Cyclefree

OldMotherHubbard said:

Is anybody else now finding the whole Brexit/Will she leave or will she stay?/Who is there at the top of the Tory Party who could do any better? question not only profoundly boring but profoundly depressing as well? The whole lot of them - and I speak as a life-long Tory - are nothing but a bunch of total nincompetentpoops.

Yes. Me.

Not to mention threads endlessly debating - pointlessly - how many people went on a march.

MTimT

OldMotherHubbard said:

Is anybody else now finding the whole Brexit/Will she leave or will she stay?/Who is there at the top of the Tory Party who could do any better? question not only profoundly boring but profoundly depressing as well? The whole lot of them - and I speak as a life-long Tory - are nothing but a bunch of total nincompetentpoops.

Sometimes ignoring the news is good for your mental health.

TheScreamingEagles

YouGov gives the Tories another 5% lead.

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1054848887943520256

another_richard

viewcode said:

solarflare said:

More like the Muskehounds, without the catchy theme tune.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFWst8c_Cvk&pbjreload=10

Well if we're making references to old kids programs ...

... how about giving the political equivalents of the four Banana Splits.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMl6HnhFFIA

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov gives the Tories another 5% lead.

Double diamond standard confirmed.

TheScreamingEagles

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1054847004633976832

TGOHF

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1054847004633976832

Who would agree to this turd kebab ?

HYUFD

Alistair said:

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

rottenborough said:

Alistair said:

Anywhere offering markets on USA election turnout? It is surely going to be mega given the early voting we are seeing. Two of Texas most populous counties had higher first day early voting than 2016

https://twitter.com/databyler/status/1054744375564136448

I'm not trying to predict who will win, I'm trying to predict turnout. I'm looking at places that have not had significant change in their early voting laws from 2016 to now (always a huge Confounder with American elections as they are constantly shifting).

Turnout, for an American midterm is going to be mega. It is such a out of the blue thing it totally messes with the polling as pollsters turnout models are going to be flat out wrong.

And relationship between the polls and actual real results will be pure fluke.

Since when has early voting ever given much conclusive proof of the actual result in a US election? I also refuse to believe turnout will be over 50%, turnout in midterms is always about 35-45% whatever early voting may show

Nevada early voting gives a near perfect look intoo final results. Heck, voter registration alone is pretty much enough to call the state.

How do you know? I well remember 2016 early voting and it bore very little relation to the final results from the key states

another_richard

OldMotherHubbard said:

Is anybody else now finding the whole Brexit/Will she leave or will she stay?/Who is there at the top of the Tory Party who could do any better? question not only profoundly boring but profoundly depressing as well? The whole lot of them - and I speak as a life-long Tory - are nothing but a bunch of total nincompetentpoops.

I am certain you're not the only one to feel that way.

kle4

OldMotherHubbard said:

Is anybody else now finding the whole Brexit/Will she leave or will she stay?/Who is there at the top of the Tory Party who could do any better? question not only profoundly boring but profoundly depressing as well? The whole lot of them - and I speak as a life-long Tory - are nothing but a bunch of total nincompetentpoops.

Hard to argue with it.

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov gives the Tories another 5% lead.

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1054848887943520256

May is heading for a 'long running multi year transition period' according to Cabinet Papers

GIN1138

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1054847004633976832

Will anyone who voted for Brexit actually be alive to see it?

TGOHF

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1054850142606639104?s=21

another_richard

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov gives the Tories another 5% lead.

Double diamond standard confirmed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRklsYZaxeQ

HYUFD

https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1054643204308504576?s=20

Tony

The Sun has more details about the ports issue, seems the concern is Macron would in effect blockade the UK if we refused to pay the £39B ransom. Still expecting a deal but that would be a sight to behold, nothing would rally Brits to the flag than the French on the warpath. I'd have to divorce my French wife immediately 😂

Pulpstar

https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1054596721366519808?s=19

Lying Ted -> Beautiful/Texas Ted

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

YouGov gives the Tories another 5% lead.

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1054848887943520256

People just love government chaos, it makes things exciting.

Alistair

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

rottenborough said:

Alistair said:

Anywhere offering markets on USA election turnout? It is surely going to be mega given the early voting we are seeing. Two of Texas most populous counties had higher first day early voting than 2016

https://twitter.com/databyler/status/1054744375564136448

I'm not trying to predict who will win, I'm trying to predict turnout. I'm looking at places that have not had significant change in their early voting laws from 2016 to now (always a huge Confounder with American elections as they are constantly shifting).

Turnout, for an American midterm is going to be mega. It is such a out of the blue thing it totally messes with the polling as pollsters turnout models are going to be flat out wrong.

And relationship between the polls and actual real results will be pure fluke.

Since when has early voting ever given much conclusive proof of the actual result in a US election? I also refuse to believe turnout will be over 50%, turnout in midterms is always about 35-45% whatever early voting may show

Nevada early voting gives a near perfect look intoo final results. Heck, voter registration alone is pretty much enough to call the state.

How do you know? I well remember 2016 early voting and it bore very little relation to the final results from the key states

@RalstonReports on Twitter had excellent Nevada predictions based on early voting.

My betting in 2016 in Nevada was based on historical voter registration ratios. As it was Trump hit the upper limit of Republican vote to voter registration performance and Hilary dipped below the Dem low end but such was the Dem advantage it was never going to be any thing other than a Presidential Dem win in 2016.

williamglenn

https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/1054847324525154304?s=21

TGOHF

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/1054847324525154304?s=21

No 10 speak with forked tongue.

HYUFD

Alistair said:

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

rottenborough said:

Alistair said:

Anywhere offering markets on USA election turnout? It is surely going to be mega given the early voting we are seeing. Two of Texas most populous counties had higher first day early voting than 2016

https://twitter.com/databyler/status/1054744375564136448

I'm not trying to predict who will win, I'm trying to predict turnout. I'm looking at places that have not had significant change in their early voting laws from 2016 to now (always a huge Confounder with American elections as they are constantly shifting).

Turnout, for an American midterm is going to be mega. It is such a out of the blue thing it totally messes with the polling as pollsters turnout models are going to be flat out wrong.

And relationship between the polls and actual real results will be pure fluke.

Since when has early voting ever given much conclusive proof of the actual result in a US election? I also refuse to believe turnout will be over 50%, turnout in midterms is always about 35-45% whatever early voting may show

Nevada early voting gives a near perfect look intoo final results. Heck, voter registration alone is pretty much enough to call the state.

How do you know? I well remember 2016 early voting and it bore very little relation to the final results from the key states

@RalstonReports on Twitter had excellent Nevada predictions based on early voting.

My betting in 2016 in Nevada was based on historical voter registration ratios. As it was Trump hit the upper limit of Republican vote to voter registration performance and Hilary dipped below the Dem low end but such was the Dem advantage it was never going to be any thing other than a Presidential Dem win in 2016.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/02/early_voting_a_poor_predictor_of_final_results.html#!

kjh

another_richard said:

Anazina said:

Casino Royale, utterly obsessed with the numbers on Saturday’s march, using epithets like “traitor” and “Gallic twats” in the last week. A living, breathing reminder of why we voted Remain.

I wonder how many PBers vote a certain way because another PBer has annoyed them so much.

+1

Scott_P

TGOHF said:

Who would agree to this turd kebab ?

Ask the people who voted for it

Dadge

kle4 said:

edmundintokyo said:

kle4 said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/mutablejoe/status/1054834852401422336

If we run out of food and vital meds next March, the Tories are utterly f***ed for a generation.

They will be slaughtered at the GE, and nothing they say about this is what the people wanted will make a jot of difference.

Quite wrong. They won't be slaughtered, they'll be marmalized. It goes on a bit longer than a slaughter.

I'm not sure about this, maybe nothing matters any more. The government is already a ridiculous divided shitshow and their polling is great.

The true believers will blame the EU for anything that goes wrong, and the alternative will still be Jeremy Corbyn.

The polling is pretty baffling. I still cannot see any way the Tories don't get hammered if there is an early GE, which is why it will be so hard for Labour to get one, and after that, IDK, I just don't see how a government which while polling ok currently is not super popular, would be able to not be destroyed by a genuine period of damaging crisis. Even if it was completely blameless for that happening, for the sake of argument, I just find it hard to believe an electorate that has already voted 40% for the opposition, would not turn even more to that opposition, again fairly or reasonably or not, in a post crisis GE.

Labour's problem is that it's suddenly become the centre party in a system where politics equals Brexit. If there's an election before next April, a lot of the LibDem leaners who gave Corbyn the benefit of the doubt last year won't be so generous this time.

Hard to say what will happen after Brexit's become a reality. In theory, Corbyn should reappear out of the woodwork and see off the Mingian threat. (Not difficult, surely.)

TGOHF

Scott_P said:

TGOHF said:

Who would agree to this turd kebab ?

Ask the people who voted for it

Nobody voted for Olly Robbins.

kle4

TGOHF said:

Scott_P said:

TGOHF said:

Who would agree to this turd kebab ?

Ask the people who voted for it

Nobody voted for Olly Robbins.

Nothing an official proposes in this matter will happen unless those who are elected want it to, or consent to it at least, so blaming officials is just like blaming the King's advisers, and seems pointless to me.

Scott_P

TGOHF said:

Nobody voted for Olly Robbins.

Olly Robbins is not Brexit

Scott_P

At least now we know why the Brexiteers were so desperate for a new Royal Yacht...

AndyJS

"Pure’ New Zealand is in thrall to the Chinese, analysts fear

Concerns are growing over Beijing’s influence on the most vulnerable member of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance. Bernard Lagan reports"

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/pure-new-zealand-is-in-thrall-to-the-chinese-fear-analysts-k89krrbqg

Pulpstar

Sam Coates - Hacky mchackity shit stirrer of the year.

NickPalmer

GIN1138 said:

FPT

GIN1138 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1054814979990405121

I still don't get the medicines thing?

If EU countries for whatever reason don't want to sell the NHS their medicines why can't we just buy them from other countries outside the EU?

Anyone?

Supply chain disruption, I guess. Companies don't do big stockpiles any more, so if their usual supplier is on the Continent and that suddenly becomes difficult, there will be a delay until they can find a new supplier in Canada or Kazakhstan or wherever.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1054857499961106433