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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the eve of TMay’s meeting with her MPs punters make it a 21

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  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,507
    kjh said:

    Mr. kjh, leaving aside your decadent golfophilia, that point is on Mr. Royale's side of the argument.

    You take the flag of the side you support. The UK is negotiating (ha) to leave the EU. The 'other side' of the table *is* the EU. That's the message many will receive.

    Those pro-EU undoubtedly see it as merely expressing their support for the UK's continued membership (and the EU flag as one that includes beneath its umbrella the UK). But we voted to leave and, apparently, are going to do so.

    That said, I think it's perhaps tricky for us here to try and guess the mind of floating voters, particularly those less politically engaged.

    Mr D dont waste your time

    were having a full on outbreak of Brexit fever this morning, you have to let it burn itself out

    Would you like some banjo music to helps pass the time ? Here's Earl Scruggs

    https://www.google.com/search?q=earl+scruggs+youtube&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-b
    Alan,

    I'm not arguing about Brexit (directly anyway). You will see I haven't responded to any other leaver. It is just this fixation of CR which causes me to rise to the bait.

    Having said that, damn it your right.

    I will keep fixing on it until the numbers are officially confirmed rather than used as propaganda.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    The Remain campaign was, of course.

    The Leavers were right all along. The EU were in a weak opening posiiton because the treaties do not provide any right to any termination payments or liabilities. They are also not actually able to deliver a trade agreement, so there was really no reason to ever discuss the Brexit bill at all.

    But remainers insisted that we accept their you keep conceding to a bully, you get screwed. You were the fools. Because we did it all your way, and now you cannot even agree a deal!

    Brilliant :-D

    You and your mates made this mess. You own it. It's your fault. Cheers!

    We would be delighted. So step number one is that you accept that you lost. Step number two, you are not getting a re-vote. Step number three, we need to remove remainers from positions of responsibility.

    Then we will sort out the mess you made.
    Too late, the PM, Chancellor, Foreign and Home Secretary are all Remainers and they are about to sign off on a lengthy SM + CU transition period deal for the whole UK plus after a few quibbles and fudges the backstop for NI.

    If you wanted No Deal you needed Leadsom to beat May in 2016
    Leadsom? Seriously? And what great strategy would she embark on? She does not even talk a good fight....
    Leadsom was the ERG candidate against May, May got 60% of Tory MPs behind her to 25% for Leadsom
    Ah! That would explain why she sounds so clueless then :D
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,507



    I think it’s pretty clear patriots should be marching with their own nation’s flag. This isn’t a contentious point.

    Yes it is - you're projecting your own idea of expression onto all of us. Why should you require patriots to march with one flag rather than another? Freedom of expression is central to most ideas of British identity, and if you want to carry someone else's flag as a symbol of solidarity with them, why not?

    There's a similar debate going on in the US over respect for the US flag (the bend the knee thing).
    Patriotism for the UK means you’d want to march with the flag of the UK. I’m not projecting anything. It’s a complete truism.

    I think some are missing the counterpoint here too. Many marching on that march simply weren’t patriotic. They contain those who actually deeply ashamed of the UK and identify more closely with the EU, or think the idea of the UK has had it’s day and is a regressive idea.

    That’s a real problem for you in winning people over because your motives and loyalties will be questioned if others are so obviously on display.

    I’m not arguing for forcing anyone to carry any flag, incidentally; I am questioning and challenging their choices.

    You are saying you cannot be a patriot on a march unless you march with a Union flag. That is nonsense. I could quite happily pick up an EU flag and march with it without losing a single scintilla of my British identity. Likewise, I will wave an England flag at an England game and that would not stop me being a patriotic Briton. For me, it is profoundly unpatriotic to judge other people's patriotism.

    If you are arguing for Britain’s place in Europe, yes.

    Where were the posters saying, “don’t give up our place at the table”, or “keep Britain great!”.

    Yes, you could march with both the EU and Union flag to make the point, or just the latter with a placard.

    I don’t see how you make the point with *just* the former. It’s a symbol of European federalism and a massive turnoff.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mrs C, I am renowned for my up to date knowledge.

    In 2AD Britain was run by a set of independent Celtic tribes. There was no single symbol. The first would have been Britannia, the titular deity created by the Romans.

    Mr. B/Mr. rkrkrk, plutocrat, so close enough.

    Pluto (Hades) was known for his 'wealth' as his kingdom kept getting bigger.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Mr. Brooke, yes :)

    Ahem, sorry about my faux pas before.

    Right one for you to test how yorkshire you are

    what flower is a Bessie Blainworts ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Second quiz question: which Latinised Greek god might be interested in car tyres?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Casino is right that people seeking to persuade others shouldn't try to wind them up at the same time. His own posts (defining exactly what a patriot should carry, for instance) are sometimes a good example of how not to do it. By contrast, the even-tempered archer101au, who seems to have more militant Brexity views, is more readable, interesting and sometimes persuasive.

    But basically none of us can sensibly spend time here trying to convert each other - the idea is more to have a reasonably friendly discussion.

    My point is that the marchers were talking to themselves and not the unconverted. The impression a sea of EU flags makes on the floating voter, yet alone a Brexiteer, is not a good one.

    You’d have thought they’d be interested in how to win others over to their side, but perhaps not.

    Perhaps the exercise is primarily to just feel good about themselves?
    Well I don't see why people shouldn't want to feel good about themselves, but that wasn't why I was on the march.

    On the flags thing, there were plenty of union jacks around but it was a march about Europe so carrying our European flag rather than our British flag seemed perfectly appropriate. The European one is the one that a lot of us want to keep.

    As to winning people over, I don't think a march is a great way of doing that. But it does indicate the scale of support for something. That is important. It is also a very good way of building an organisation. I have now made contact with several people in my local area who share my views so we can now work together to achieve things. For example, we have a very remain-friendly MP. I wouldn't rule out signing up to his local association if there were moves to replace him with somebody more phobic. Small scale parochial stuff maybe, but multiply that by 600,000 across the whole country and we might start seeing some change.
    Multiply by 350,000.

    The 700,000 figure (which i note even you keep changing, from 570 to 700 and now back to 600 again) is totally made up based on wishful thinking.
    Nobody knows what the number was, and I don't think there is any way we will ever know. It was very big though. Over 600,000 seems quite believable.

    Here's a number I can confirm. Three brexit stories in my newsletter from the Royal Society of Biology. I don't remember there ever being any political stories before Brexit. Here's a sample.

    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07146-x
  • Vote Leave Avoid Responsibility in full flight today.

    Brexit is becoming a fiasco because it always was a fiasco. The xenophobic lies that the Leavers happily fell in behind have holed it below the waterline.

    Nothing to do with xenophobic lies -- the problem is incompetent politicians rushing ahead without agreeing a destination, let alone a route to get there: Cameron and May should have nailed down what Brexit is supposed to look like before launching the referendum or triggering Article 50 respectively. Two years on and six months left and there is still no agreement even within the Cabinet and it's not because they hate foreigners.

    Yep, politicians are crap shock. Whoever would have thought it?

    Senior Citizen John L is in any case mistaken. What's flooring the Cabinet is that they are trapped by the parameters set by the referendum campaign. They don't want to leave us all scavenging for dead rats and out of date insulin, but the Brexit mandate obtained was inconsistent with any deal they could cut and get through Parliament.
    Surely the mandate was "Leave". No conditions were set on the type of "Leave". Any old "Leave" will do ...
    Millions of Turks were waiting to invade us. Leave will need to stop them.
    Block up the Chunnel, close the airports and blockade the ports. That should do it and we get "Leave" as a bonus :D:D
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DILBzfbH__8
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    The EU will not offer CETA without the backstop for NI and then only for GB.

    However reports last night suggest they are willing to compromise with May and a CU for the whole UK alongside the backstop for NI and nearer to May's plans

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6308325/EU-set-offer-UK-wide-customs-deal-bid-solve-Brexit-talks.html

    The EU didn’t even raise the backstop until half way through the talks, when they realised Appeaser May would back down on any threat. The UK should have walked rather then enter any discussion on internal UK arrangements. Remainers told us to accept the backstop and now it will lead to no deal. Well done!

    You clearly don’t understand what is being offered. The EUs offer is exatly the same as it was when Raab ran off to shut it down. They were always prepared to offer a promise for an all UK CU AFTER Brexit, but the promise is non binding and the NI backstop needs to remain. And it will be permanent. So it gets May nowhere. She was forced on Monday to say the exact opposite in the House of Commons.

    The EU clearly see the CU as the long term solution which should spark the thought in remainer heads that it might not be a good idea for the UK. May is saying that it is a transition arrangement to Chequers. She is delusional. Now the Cabinet have stood up to her she won’t even get her mad scheme through the Cabinet let alone the Commons. Only the hard core remainers in the Cabinet support her now - the ‘sofr remainers’ such as Hunt and Javid have turned on her.

    Remainers are bringing us no deal. Couldn’t make it up.
    The EU has always been clear the Good Friday Agreement must be protected and there must be no hard border in Ireland.

    They are now offering a Deal keeping the whole UK in the Customs Union temporarily while a solution is found to the backstop with a separate Treaty to the Withdrawal Agreement
    The EU has no role in the GFA. The GFA has no impact on Brexit. Nobody is going to impose a hard border whether there is a deal or not.

    The EU are offering, as they have since March, a permanent NI only backstop and now a vague promise of a UK CU but negotiated later under threat of the NI backstop. Even if the UK CU was temporary, the NI backstop would be permanent.

    May has been forced to rule it out. The Cabinet won’t let her agree. Scottish Tories won’t agree. She is in a trap of lies told to all people entirely of her own making.

    What you are really claiming is that May deliberately lied to the House of Commons on Monday. It would make sense for you to support that.

    In the real world, we are heading for no deal.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    edited October 2018
    Mr. Brooke, I have no idea :pensive:

    If you'd asked me a sensible question, like what extinct North African plant was used as an ancient contraceptive, I'd've been able to answer.

    Edited extra bit: changed 'flower' to 'plant', and added 'extinct'
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Mr. Brooke, I have no idea :pensive:

    If you'd asked me a sensible question, like what extinct North African plant was used as an ancient contraceptive, I'd've been able to answer.

    Edited extra bit: changed 'flower' to 'plant', and added 'extinct'

    a daisy - N Yotks dialect apparently
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Second quiz question: which Latinised Greek god might be interested in car tyres?

    Michelin
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mrs C, no.

    I do have a second clue, which I'll post if nobody gets it without the extra help.

    Mr. Brooke, to be fair, my knowledge of dialect is minimal beyond ginnels, kecks, and lekking. I'm just outside Leeds, though, so hardly broad territory.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Second quiz question: which Latinised Greek god might be interested in car tyres?

    No. Youve got me on that one. I was thinking something to do with Mercury but nothing comes to mind.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Mr. kjh, leaving aside your decadent golfophilia, that point is on Mr. Royale's side of the argument.

    You take the flag of the side you support. The UK is negotiating (ha) to leave the EU. The 'other side' of the table *is* the EU. That's the message many will receive.

    Those pro-EU undoubtedly see it as merely expressing their support for the UK's continued membership (and the EU flag as one that includes beneath its umbrella the UK). But we voted to leave and, apparently, are going to do so.

    That said, I think it's perhaps tricky for us here to try and guess the mind of floating voters, particularly those less politically engaged.

    People can have more than one identity. They can, for example, feel British and European. They may wish to express both of those identities. On a march about the EU, that might well involve the EU flag.

    I have even heard that some Yorkshiremen feel British, English and Yorkshire. Crazy, I know.
    They are generally forced to feel themselves as nobody else would want to.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Mrs C, no.

    I do have a second clue, which I'll post if nobody gets it without the extra help.

    Mr. Brooke, to be fair, my knowledge of dialect is minimal beyond ginnels, kecks, and lekking. I'm just outside Leeds, though, so hardly broad territory.

    Goodyear? (They have Hermes / Mercury's winged boot symbol)

    BTW - This THREAD IS OLD ;)
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,301

    Mrs C, no.

    I do have a second clue, which I'll post if nobody gets it without the extra help.

    Mr. Brooke, to be fair, my knowledge of dialect is minimal beyond ginnels, kecks, and lekking. I'm just outside Leeds, though, so hardly broad territory.

    Hephaestus? Somehow connected with firestone...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    OT In America, it is alleged that voting machines are automatically changing D votes to R (as seen in the Simpsons).
    https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/23/georgia-naacp-filed-complaint-voting-errors-some-counties/1741406002/

    That'll be badly calibrated touch screens I imagine.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,819

    kjh said:

    Mr. kjh, leaving aside your decadent golfophilia, that point is on Mr. Royale's side of the argument.

    You take the flag of the side you support. The UK is negotiating (ha) to leave the EU. The 'other side' of the table *is* the EU. That's the message many will receive.

    Those pro-EU undoubtedly see it as merely expressing their support for the UK's continued membership (and the EU flag as one that includes beneath its umbrella the UK). But we voted to leave and, apparently, are going to do so.

    That said, I think it's perhaps tricky for us here to try and guess the mind of floating voters, particularly those less politically engaged.

    Mr D dont waste your time

    were having a full on outbreak of Brexit fever this morning, you have to let it burn itself out

    Would you like some banjo music to helps pass the time ? Here's Earl Scruggs

    https://www.google.com/search?q=earl+scruggs+youtube&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-b
    Alan,

    I'm not arguing about Brexit (directly anyway). You will see I haven't responded to any other leaver. It is just this fixation of CR which causes me to rise to the bait.

    Having said that, damn it your right.

    I will keep fixing on it until the numbers are officially confirmed rather than used as propaganda.
    And you keep boosting the Remain cause by doing so.

    Your calculation? Haven't seen it yet.

    And only your definition of patriotism is right even though loads on here have challenged your right to tell them what they should believe. Like SothamObserver I'm a Londoner, now Surrey, English, British, European and the flag I fly depends on circumstances. My wife is Scottish so when England play Scotland there is rivalry, but we are pragmatic and not xenophobic so I'm happy to switch to an England/British/European opponent if my side does not play fair, and in particular if the opponent is an underdog. Blind patriotism is not healthy. Home is my default, but not if my home is wrong.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413

    Mrs C, no.

    I do have a second clue, which I'll post if nobody gets it without the extra help.

    Mr. Brooke, to be fair, my knowledge of dialect is minimal beyond ginnels, kecks, and lekking. I'm just outside Leeds, though, so hardly broad territory.

    Goodyear? (They have Hermes / Mercury's winged boot symbol)

    BTW - This THREAD IS OLD ;)
    I thought it seemed strangely rational :-)
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Mrs C, no.

    I do have a second clue, which I'll post if nobody gets it without the extra help.

    Mr. Brooke, to be fair, my knowledge of dialect is minimal beyond ginnels, kecks, and lekking. I'm just outside Leeds, though, so hardly broad territory.

    Goodyear? (They have Hermes / Mercury's winged boot symbol)

    BTW - This THREAD IS OLD ;)
    I thought it seemed strangely rational :-)
    Your post about Mercury made me think of Goodyear, but with Michelin, they are the only two tyre companies I know...
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited October 2018
    Understandably most of the commentary surrounding the question of the timing of Theresa May's exit from Number Ten has focused on the Brexit negotiations and the perception that her leadership is a drag on Conservative electoral prospects. The imminent budget may also become a factor.

    The expectation is that Hammond will explain where he is finding £20bn for the NHS and that this would include tax increases. Tax increases that are not popular on the backbenches.

    The better than expected public borrowing figures reduce the necessity for tax rises only enough to make them more of a problem to reconcile with ideological opponents. However, quite apart from the continuing deficit there is a political imperative to increase taxes to fund increased NHS spending which will put May and Hammond on a collision course with their own MPs.

    There is no easily definable upper limit to NHS spending. This does not mean one should never increase NHS spending, but it does mean there is always a case for increasing it further so the political challenge for the Tories is to win the argument that they are spending as much as is reasonably possible on the NHS.

    A tax increase that people will notice is the best way to make that argument. It says, "We have increased taxes to fund the NHS as much as possible, but there's not even a moderately difficult source of money to fund further increases, even though we wish it were otherwise."

    Without a noticeable tax increase a more persuasive argument could be, "Even the Tories have admitted the NHS needs more money, but they won't give it the money it deserves because they don't really want to, even though it wouldn't be difficult."

    This is the political case for an increase in employee National Insurance contributions in the coming budget. Might it be the final straw for some of May's critics?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,749



    I think it’s pretty clear patriots should be marching with their own nation’s flag. This isn’t a contentious point.

    Yes it is - you're projecting your own idea of expression onto all of us. Why should you require patriots to march with one flag rather than another? Freedom of expression is central to most ideas of British identity, and if you want to carry someone else's flag as a symbol of solidarity with them, why not?

    There's a similar debate going on in the US over respect for the US flag (the bend the knee thing).
    Patriotism for the UK means you’d want to march with the flag of the UK. I’m not projecting anything. It’s a complete truism.

    I think some are missing the counterpoint here too. Many marching on that march simply weren’t patriotic. They contain those who actually deeply ashamed of the UK and identify more closely with the EU, or think the idea of the UK has had it’s day and is a regressive idea.

    That’s a real problem for you in winning people over because your motives and loyalties will be questioned if others are so obviously on display.

    I’m not arguing for forcing anyone to carry any flag, incidentally; I am questioning and challenging their choices.

    You are saying you cannot be a patriot on a march unless you march with a Union flag. That is nonsense. I could quite happily pick up an EU flag and march with it without losing a single scintilla of my British identity. Likewise, I will wave an England flag at an England game and that would not stop me being a patriotic Briton. For me, it is profoundly unpatriotic to judge other people's patriotism.

    If you are arguing for Britain’s place in Europe, yes.

    Where were the posters saying, “don’t give up our place at the table”, or “keep Britain great!”.

    Yes, you could march with both the EU and Union flag to make the point, or just the latter with a placard.

    I don’t see how you make the point with *just* the former. It’s a symbol of European federalism and a massive turnoff.
    There were plenty of British, English, Welsh, Scottish, Cornish, Pride, Smiley flags on the march. People are generally fine with multiple identities. I was flying a British flag.

    My favourite sign was Make Britain Sane Again.

    Not sure why you are so discombobulated by the numbers. It was clearly both the largest march in over a decade, and the best behaved. A triumph of ordinary Britons exercising their democratic right of assembly.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005

    Mr. Brooke, hope springs eternal.

    Like death. Or taxes.

    Ahem.

    On that note, a classical quiz question: what word links death and wealth in Greek mythology? It is one used (not commonly, but you'll recognise it) in English.

    I would say "plutocracy" or "plutocrat", but wasn't Pluto Roman rather than Greek?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,005

    Second quiz question: which Latinised Greek god might be interested in car tyres?

    These have probably all been already answered, but this one would be Vulcan.
  • ABLAABLABLAABL Posts: 23
    A Deal or Theresa May is toppled? I think a deal as UK back down and DUP shafted eventually…

    https://www.abitleftandabitlost.com/posts/are-we-closer-to-a-brexit-deal-or-theresa-mays-political-demise
This discussion has been closed.