politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At GE2017 six times as many CON voters said Brexit was the dec

System · July 2018

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At GE2017 six times as many CON voters said Brexit was the deciding issue than LAB ones

Lord Ashcroft GE2017 on the day poll

Read the full story here

Philip_Thompson · July 2018

Interestingly only 65% of Labour voters appear to have even given a reason (from the top 5).
While 88% of Tory voters have given a reason.

Does that mean a significant proportion of Labour voters are voting Labour regardless of reasons or policies?

Philip_Thompson · July 2018

FPT

another_richard said:

MaxPB said:
Absolutely mega borrowing figures for the government, again. Implies 1.8% YoY growth from my back of the fag packet calculation.
I'd say quite good rather than mega.

But lets remember the OBR's March 2018 borrowing prediction for the year ending March 2018 was £45.2bn compared with actual borrowing of £39.4bn.

The OBR's borrowing predicting of £37.1bn for 2018/19 looks like it could be about £8bn too high as well.

At this rate looks rather like we could actually be on target to reach a budget surplus by 2020 afterall.

OblitusSumMe · July 2018

Philip_Thompson said:
Interestingly only 65% of Labour voters appear to have even given a reason (from the top 5).
While 88% of Tory voters have given a reason.

Does that mean a significant proportion of Labour voters are voting Labour regardless of reasons or policies?

Looking at the detail in the data tables it's simply that Labour voters choose a wider variety of reasons beyond the top five. Don't know/no answer is 2% for Labour voters and 1% for Tory voters, but it's closer than that before rounding.

Ashcroft gave people 21 categories to choose from.

anothernick · July 2018

I am a little surprised by this finding. I canvassed extensively in south London in 2017 and quite often came across Tory voters switching to Labour because of Brexit. Maybe there were fewer of them in other parts of the country.

Philip_Thompson · July 2018

OblitusSumMe said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Interestingly only 65% of Labour voters appear to have even given a reason (from the top 5).
While 88% of Tory voters have given a reason.

Does that mean a significant proportion of Labour voters are voting Labour regardless of reasons or policies?
Looking at the detail in the data tables it's simply that Labour voters choose a wider variety of reasons beyond the top five. Don't know/no answer is 2% for Labour voters and 1% for Tory voters, but it's closer than that before rounding.

For 33% to be split between options scoring less than the 6% of Labour voters who care about the economy is quite remarkable.

MaxPB · July 2018

anothernick said:
I am a little surprised by this finding. I canvassed extensively in south London in 2017 and quite often came across Tory voters switching to Labour because of Brexit. Maybe there were fewer of them in other parts of the country.

That's why.

OblitusSumMe · July 2018

Philip_Thompson said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Interestingly only 65% of Labour voters appear to have even given a reason (from the top 5).
While 88% of Tory voters have given a reason.

Does that mean a significant proportion of Labour voters are voting Labour regardless of reasons or policies?
Looking at the detail in the data tables it's simply that Labour voters choose a wider variety of reasons beyond the top five. Don't know/no answer is 2% for Labour voters and 1% for Tory voters, but it's closer than that before rounding.
For 33% to be split between options scoring less than the 6% of Labour voters who care about the economy is quite remarkable.

For example, about three times as many Labour voters answered "rising living costs" as Tory voters, so many of these issues are sub-issues of, say, the "economy" issue.

You could argue that Labour voters were thinking about the issues facing the country in more detail than Tory voters, but that would be a tenuous point made with only suggestive data, so I won't make it.

TOPPING · July 2018

anothernick said:
I am a little surprised by this finding. I canvassed extensively in south London in 2017 and quite often came across Tory voters switching to Labour because of Brexit. Maybe there were fewer of them in other parts of the country.

I have said exactly the same about West London but was assured that London is a special case, which I agree it is to an extent.

OchEye · July 2018

Just found this on The Times of Israel, perhaps worth thinking about?

https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-hails-jewish-state-law-as-a-pivotal-moment-in-zionist-history/?utm_source=The+Times+of+Israel+Daily+Edition&utm_campaign=abb9578673-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_07_19_12_31&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_adb46cec92-abb9578673-56026821

Polruan · July 2018

Philip_Thompson said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Interestingly only 65% of Labour voters appear to have even given a reason (from the top 5).
While 88% of Tory voters have given a reason.

Does that mean a significant proportion of Labour voters are voting Labour regardless of reasons or policies?
Looking at the detail in the data tables it's simply that Labour voters choose a wider variety of reasons beyond the top five. Don't know/no answer is 2% for Labour voters and 1% for Tory voters, but it's closer than that before rounding.
For 33% to be split between options scoring less than the 6% of Labour voters who care about the economy is quite remarkable.

Not really - for both parties the honest answer for a large % would be ‘tribal loyalty’ or ‘voting for people who seem more like me’ but people don’t say that so come up with other policy reasons as euphemisms. The difference is that the Tories have ‘Brexit’ as a euphemism for ‘trans-rational tribal loyalty’ whereas Labour has nothing similar except perhaps the NHS.

I guess the Tories’ strategy is probably about right at the moment if one accepts the findings that Brexit in and of itself is exactly twice as important as jobs, the economy and having a decent PM combined.

currystar · July 2018

Philip_Thompson said:
FPT
another_richard said:

MaxPB said:
Absolutely mega borrowing figures for the government, again. Implies 1.8% YoY growth from my back of the fag packet calculation.
I'd say quite good rather than mega.

But lets remember the OBR's March 2018 borrowing prediction for the year ending March 2018 was £45.2bn compared with actual borrowing of £39.4bn.

The OBR's borrowing predicting of £37.1bn for 2018/19 looks like it could be about £8bn too high as well.
At this rate looks rather like we could actually be on target to reach a budget surplus by 2020 afterall.

Is this another example of this totally incompetent government?

Danny565 · July 2018

anothernick said:
I am a little surprised by this finding. I canvassed extensively in south London in 2017 and quite often came across Tory voters switching to Labour because of Brexit. Maybe there were fewer of them in other parts of the country.

In my patch in northern England (in a seat where the Remain/Leave split was pretty much 50/50), Brexit very rarely came up, and when it did it was usually mentioned as a reason not to vote Labour ("Theresa has more balls and will take a tougher stand in the negotiations, Jeremy would just say yes to everything, etcetc.").

OblitusSumMe · July 2018

Polruan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Interestingly only 65% of Labour voters appear to have even given a reason (from the top 5).
While 88% of Tory voters have given a reason.

Does that mean a significant proportion of Labour voters are voting Labour regardless of reasons or policies?
Looking at the detail in the data tables it's simply that Labour voters choose a wider variety of reasons beyond the top five. Don't know/no answer is 2% for Labour voters and 1% for Tory voters, but it's closer than that before rounding.
For 33% to be split between options scoring less than the 6% of Labour voters who care about the economy is quite remarkable.
Not really - for both parties the honest answer for a large % would be ‘tribal loyalty’ or ‘voting for people who seem more like me’ but people don’t say that so come up with other policy reasons as euphemisms. The difference is that the Tories have ‘Brexit’ as a euphemism for ‘trans-rational tribal loyalty’ whereas Labour has nothing similar except perhaps the NHS.

I guess the Tories’ strategy is probably about right at the moment if one accepts the findings that Brexit in and of itself is exactly twice as important as jobs, the economy and having a decent PM combined.

While that's true those answers were not an option on that question, which was: "Now thinking about the wider issues facing the country, which was the most important issue when it came to deciding how to vote in the general election?"

You want to look at Question 8.

Foxy · July 2018

currystar said:

Philip_Thompson said:
FPT
another_richard said:

MaxPB said:
Absolutely mega borrowing figures for the government, again. Implies 1.8% YoY growth from my back of the fag packet calculation.
I'd say quite good rather than mega.

But lets remember the OBR's March 2018 borrowing prediction for the year ending March 2018 was £45.2bn compared with actual borrowing of £39.4bn.

The OBR's borrowing predicting of £37.1bn for 2018/19 looks like it could be about £8bn too high as well.
At this rate looks rather like we could actually be on target to reach a budget surplus by 2020 afterall.
Is this another example of this totally incompetent government?

Yes, Hammond is quietly doing an excellent job with the finances.

How he sets out his budget for the Brexit storms will be interesting.

Beverley_C · July 2018

currystar said:

Philip_Thompson said:
FPT
another_richard said:

MaxPB said:
Absolutely mega borrowing figures for the government, again. Implies 1.8% YoY growth from my back of the fag packet calculation.
I'd say quite good rather than mega.

But lets remember the OBR's March 2018 borrowing prediction for the year ending March 2018 was £45.2bn compared with actual borrowing of £39.4bn.

The OBR's borrowing predicting of £37.1bn for 2018/19 looks like it could be about £8bn too high as well.
At this rate looks rather like we could actually be on target to reach a budget surplus by 2020 afterall.
Is this another example of this totally incompetent government?

Perhaps it is an example of a competent Chancellor who the Brexiteers dislike intensely and sideline at every opportunity?

MarqueeMark · July 2018

Philip_Thompson said:
FPT
another_richard said:

MaxPB said:
Absolutely mega borrowing figures for the government, again. Implies 1.8% YoY growth from my back of the fag packet calculation.
I'd say quite good rather than mega.

But lets remember the OBR's March 2018 borrowing prediction for the year ending March 2018 was £45.2bn compared with actual borrowing of £39.4bn.

The OBR's borrowing predicting of £37.1bn for 2018/19 looks like it could be about £8bn too high as well.
At this rate looks rather like we could actually be on target to reach a budget surplus by 2020 afterall.

Before the next election at least. Brexit permitting.....

OblitusSumMe · July 2018

On question 8 25% of Labour voters said that, "I trusted the motives of the party I voted for more than those of other parties," compared to 8% of Tory voters. Interestingly you have an almost identical split, in reverse, for the answer, "I thought the leader of the party I chose would make a better Prime Minister."

On other answers you can see that Labour voters choose Labour for their policies, while Tories chose Theresa May to negotiate Brexit.

Polruan · July 2018

OblitusSumMe said:
On question 8 25% of Labour voters said that, "I trusted the motives of the party I voted for more than those of other parties," compared to 8% of Tory voters. Interestingly you have an almost identical split, in reverse, for the answer, "I thought the leader of the party I chose would make a better Prime Minister."

On other answers you can see that Labour voters choose Labour for their policies, while Tories chose Theresa May to negotiate Brexit.

Yes, I thought that was interesting, although the low percentage of Tory voters who cite trusting the motives of their party cf prioritising its ability to negotiate Brexit is also striking. Almost as if Brexit is solely seen as an end in itself rather than a means of achieving something good for country.

Foxy · July 2018

MarqueeMark said:

Philip_Thompson said:
FPT
another_richard said:

MaxPB said:
Absolutely mega borrowing figures for the government, again. Implies 1.8% YoY growth from my back of the fag packet calculation.
I'd say quite good rather than mega.

But lets remember the OBR's March 2018 borrowing prediction for the year ending March 2018 was £45.2bn compared with actual borrowing of £39.4bn.

The OBR's borrowing predicting of £37.1bn for 2018/19 looks like it could be about £8bn too high as well.
At this rate looks rather like we could actually be on target to reach a budget surplus by 2020 afterall.
Before the next election at least. Brexit permitting.....

I wouldn't count on expecting any thanks for it. In 1997 the mood of the country was to throw out a divided government obsessed with Europe despite sound finances. Indeed, the fact that the finances were sound just highlighted the poor state of public services and the need for spending. Jezza is no Tony, but he doesnt need a 3 figure majority either.

Stark_Dawning · July 2018

Beverley_C said:

currystar said:

Philip_Thompson said:
FPT
another_richard said:

MaxPB said:
Absolutely mega borrowing figures for the government, again. Implies 1.8% YoY growth from my back of the fag packet calculation.
I'd say quite good rather than mega.

But lets remember the OBR's March 2018 borrowing prediction for the year ending March 2018 was £45.2bn compared with actual borrowing of £39.4bn.

The OBR's borrowing predicting of £37.1bn for 2018/19 looks like it could be about £8bn too high as well.
At this rate looks rather like we could actually be on target to reach a budget surplus by 2020 afterall.
Is this another example of this totally incompetent government?
Perhaps it is an example of a competent Chancellor who the Brexiteers dislike intensely and sideline at every opportunity?

Quite right. It's ridiculous to think that lugubrious old Phil had anything to do with it during his short and uninspiring tenure. These things take years to engineer. George take a long and richly deserved bow.

Pulpstar · July 2018

Danny565 said:

anothernick said:
I am a little surprised by this finding. I canvassed extensively in south London in 2017 and quite often came across Tory voters switching to Labour because of Brexit. Maybe there were fewer of them in other parts of the country.
In my patch in northern England (in a seat where the Remain/Leave split was pretty much 50/50), Brexit very rarely came up, and when it did it was usually mentioned as a reason not to vote Labour ("Theresa has more balls and will take a tougher stand in the negotiations, Jeremy would just say yes to everything, etcetc.").

These findings and the thread header are consistent with my work too..

Clear correlation between Tory increase and the leave vote -

https://twitter.com/Pulpstar/status/1001460989244727296

Very weak correlation for the Labour/Brexit vote

https://twitter.com/Pulpstar/status/1001458627985670144

anothernick · July 2018

Foxy said:

currystar said:

Philip_Thompson said:
FPT
another_richard said:

MaxPB said:
Absolutely mega borrowing figures for the government, again. Implies 1.8% YoY growth from my back of the fag packet calculation.
I'd say quite good rather than mega.

But lets remember the OBR's March 2018 borrowing prediction for the year ending March 2018 was £45.2bn compared with actual borrowing of £39.4bn.

The OBR's borrowing predicting of £37.1bn for 2018/19 looks like it could be about £8bn too high as well.
At this rate looks rather like we could actually be on target to reach a budget surplus by 2020 afterall.
Is this another example of this totally incompetent government?
Yes, Hammond is quietly doing an excellent job with the finances

I'm sure the chef on the Titanic cooked an excellent dinner the night it hit the iceberg. But the iceberg swept everything away. Brexit is Hammond's iceberg.

Foxy · July 2018

Beverley_C said:

currystar said:

Philip_Thompson said:
FPT
another_richard said:

MaxPB said:
Absolutely mega borrowing figures for the government, again. Implies 1.8% YoY growth from my back of the fag packet calculation.
I'd say quite good rather than mega.

But lets remember the OBR's March 2018 borrowing prediction for the year ending March 2018 was £45.2bn compared with actual borrowing of £39.4bn.

The OBR's borrowing predicting of £37.1bn for 2018/19 looks like it could be about £8bn too high as well.
At this rate looks rather like we could actually be on target to reach a budget surplus by 2020 afterall.
Is this another example of this totally incompetent government?
Perhaps it is an example of a competent Chancellor who the Brexiteers dislike intensely and sideline at every opportunity?

Hammond is undervalued by the betting markets, but seems to have quite a lot of support amongst the Cabinet and Parliamentary party. He is sane enough to deliver a soft Brexit too, the obstacle being that if he were to go to a members vote, the wider party would be likely to go for a frothy mouthed populist.

MaxPB · July 2018

Foxy said:

currystar said:

Philip_Thompson said:
FPT
another_richard said:

MaxPB said:
Absolutely mega borrowing figures for the government, again. Implies 1.8% YoY growth from my back of the fag packet calculation.
I'd say quite good rather than mega.

But lets remember the OBR's March 2018 borrowing prediction for the year ending March 2018 was £45.2bn compared with actual borrowing of £39.4bn.

The OBR's borrowing predicting of £37.1bn for 2018/19 looks like it could be about £8bn too high as well.
At this rate looks rather like we could actually be on target to reach a budget surplus by 2020 afterall.
Is this another example of this totally incompetent government?
Yes, Hammond is quietly doing an excellent job with the finances.

How he sets out his budget for the Brexit storms will be interesting.

Osborne, not Hammond. We'll see the effects of whatever Hammond has done (or not) in the next few years. Until the end of this year I think Osborne gets the credit.

LordOfReason · July 2018

Philip_Thompson said:
Interestingly only 65% of Labour voters appear to have even given a reason (from the top 5).
While 88% of Tory voters have given a reason.

Does that mean a significant proportion of Labour voters are voting Labour regardless of reasons or policies?

The 2017 GE was odd in many ways, all sorts of factors at play not least
It was only two years in a majority Tory government, one year into new PM.
Corbyn and his factions policy’s and baggage are vote loser, yet the oxygen of publicity made him seem normal and articulate, and his politics more moderate than expected.
There was a 2016 reaction akin to the odd thing in Scotland where SNP lost indyref but then had overwhelming support at 2015. Encapsulating the wrong note perfectly was that Daily Mail front page, many decent, thoughtful and moderate voters in this country didn’t like being branded a saboteur and their politics crushed. It was the Mail wot lost it!
And that reaction was aided and abetted by the GE tone set by Downing Street, absolutely ruling GE out and then catching everybody on the hop with u turn, and a further u turn on manifesto after its launch.
May should build it into all her speeches “you turn if you want to, this lady’s hot for turning”
When they depose her they should give her a pair of flip flops as retirement gift.
She is every bit a bad PM as Gordon Brown, a greasy pole champion and nothing else to offer. By being inept at doing away with Brown, labour played into the hands of the opposition, And the Tories making that mistake with May. It’s reached that point now Labour should publically sound belligerent about this government and call for a GE, but privately do everything they can to keep May in there for as long as possible because Agent May continues to work wonders for Labours chances at next GE.

rkrkrk · July 2018

Foxy said:

MarqueeMark said:

Philip_Thompson said:
FPT
another_richard said:

MaxPB said:
Absolutely mega borrowing figures for the government, again. Implies 1.8% YoY growth from my back of the fag packet calculation.
I'd say quite good rather than mega.

But lets remember the OBR's March 2018 borrowing prediction for the year ending March 2018 was £45.2bn compared with actual borrowing of £39.4bn.

The OBR's borrowing predicting of £37.1bn for 2018/19 looks like it could be about £8bn too high as well.
At this rate looks rather like we could actually be on target to reach a budget surplus by 2020 afterall.
Before the next election at least. Brexit permitting.....
I wouldn't count on expecting any thanks for it. In 1997 the mood of the country was to throw out a divided government obsessed with Europe despite sound finances. Indeed, the fact that the finances were sound just highlighted the poor state of public services and the need for spending. Jezza is no Tony, but he doesnt need a 3 figure majority either.

A smallish majority is good in our system I think since it forces the government to take parliament seriously.

Sandpit · July 2018

currystar said:

Philip_Thompson said:
FPT
another_richard said:

MaxPB said:
Absolutely mega borrowing figures for the government, again. Implies 1.8% YoY growth from my back of the fag packet calculation.
I'd say quite good rather than mega.

But lets remember the OBR's March 2018 borrowing prediction for the year ending March 2018 was £45.2bn compared with actual borrowing of £39.4bn.

The OBR's borrowing predicting of £37.1bn for 2018/19 looks like it could be about £8bn too high as well.
At this rate looks rather like we could actually be on target to reach a budget surplus by 2020 afterall.
Is this another example of this totally incompetent government?

Not a day too soon, then the gargantuan task of paying down the debt can begin in earnest.

anothernick · July 2018

Foxy said:

Beverley_C said:

currystar said:

Philip_Thompson said:
FPT
another_richard said:

MaxPB said:
Absolutely mega borrowing figures for the government, again. Implies 1.8% YoY growth from my back of the fag packet calculation.
I'd say quite good rather than mega.

But lets remember the OBR's March 2018 borrowing prediction for the year ending March 2018 was £45.2bn compared with actual borrowing of £39.4bn.

The OBR's borrowing predicting of £37.1bn for 2018/19 looks like it could be about £8bn too high as well.
At this rate looks rather like we could actually be on target to reach a budget surplus by 2020 afterall.
Is this another example of this totally incompetent government?
Perhaps it is an example of a competent Chancellor who the Brexiteers dislike intensely and sideline at every opportunity?
Hammond is undervalued by the betting markets, but seems to have quite a lot of support amongst the Cabinet and Parliamentary party. He is sane enough to deliver a soft Brexit too, the obstacle being that if he were to go to a members vote, the wider party would be likely to go for a frothy mouthed populist.

i doubt Hammond (or anyone else) could deliver a soft Brexit. Both ERG ultras and ultra remainers now seem to think that taking us to the cliff edge is likely to result in victory for their side of the argument. The ERG want to jump and remainers think that the prospect of no deal will result in a u turn on the whole idea, which is why Mandelson and Adonis have come out strongly against the Chequers plan. And Labour will stick with its six tests, which no soft Brexit plan the Tories come up with will ever meet.

Soft Brexit is dead, it's either the cliff edge or some form of u turn, perhaps dressed up as a temporary postponement of withdrawal.

currystar · July 2018

anothernick said:

Foxy said:

Beverley_C said:

currystar said:

Philip_Thompson said:
FPT
another_richard said:

MaxPB said:
Absolutely mega borrowing figures for the government, again. Implies 1.8% YoY growth from my back of the fag packet calculation.
I'd say quite good rather than mega.

But lets remember the OBR's March 2018 borrowing prediction for the year ending March 2018 was £45.2bn compared with actual borrowing of £39.4bn.

The OBR's borrowing predicting of £37.1bn for 2018/19 looks like it could be about £8bn too high as well.
At this rate looks rather like we could actually be on target to reach a budget surplus by 2020 afterall.
Is this another example of this totally incompetent government?
Perhaps it is an example of a competent Chancellor who the Brexiteers dislike intensely and sideline at every opportunity?
Hammond is undervalued by the betting markets, but seems to have quite a lot of support amongst the Cabinet and Parliamentary party. He is sane enough to deliver a soft Brexit too, the obstacle being that if he were to go to a members vote, the wider party would be likely to go for a frothy mouthed populist.
i doubt Hammond (or anyone else) could deliver a soft Brexit. Both ERG ultras and ultra remainers now seem to think that taking us to the cliff edge is likely to result in victory for their side of the argument. The ERG want to jump and remainers think that the prospect of no deal will result in a u turn on the whole idea, which is why Mandelson and Adonis have come out strongly against the Chequers plan. And Labour will stick with its six tests, which no soft Brexit plan the Tories come up with will ever meet.

Soft Brexit is dead, it's either the cliff edge or some form of u turn, perhaps dressed up as a temporary postponement of withdrawal.

Or the EU governments have a word with Barnier

brendan16 · July 2018

Sandpit said:

currystar said:

Philip_Thompson said:
FPT
another_richard said:

MaxPB said:
Absolutely mega borrowing figures for the government, again. Implies 1.8% YoY growth from my back of the fag packet calculation.
I'd say quite good rather than mega.

But lets remember the OBR's March 2018 borrowing prediction for the year ending March 2018 was £45.2bn compared with actual borrowing of £39.4bn.

The OBR's borrowing predicting of £37.1bn for 2018/19 looks like it could be about £8bn too high as well.
At this rate looks rather like we could actually be on target to reach a budget surplus by 2020 afterall.
Is this another example of this totally incompetent government?
Not a day too soon, then the gargantuan task of paying down the debt can begin in earnest.

It's amazing no one ever really discusses this £53bn annual debt interest figure - 53 times what May gave to NI under the DUP deal every year for decades more. I don't see us ever paying down the debt given rising spending pressures and politics as now.

MJW · July 2018

TOPPING said:

anothernick said:
I am a little surprised by this finding. I canvassed extensively in south London in 2017 and quite often came across Tory voters switching to Labour because of Brexit. Maybe there were fewer of them in other parts of the country.
I have said exactly the same about West London but was assured that London is a special case, which I agree it is to an extent.

There's also the point that Brexit might show up less as it was more of an underlying factor as to why younger more liberal voters ruled out even considering the Tories rather than a positive factor - which people will explain by reverting to what they like about Labour. This is especially true as Labour's Brexit stance didn't really enthuse many Remainers, who nonetheless voted for them as being more in line with their other values - e.g. pro-public services - than a Tory Party they viewed as not liking or wanting to understand them or their concerns.

Back in the glory days of New Labour the Tories put off a lot of voters by looking like a bunch of corrupt, hypocritical old men you'd avoid in a pub, who were obsessed with Europe and determined to criticise anyone having any fun (all the while shagging their secretary) - but I'd wager that if you ran a similar poll at the time you'd get a similar result - Labour voters saying they were voting that way because of the NHS, or schools. But an underlying factor was that a lot of people had just tuned out of anything the Tories had to say as culturally irrelevant and antagonistic to them. Brexit is arguably a similar motivatory factor - it's not the reason someone will give for voting Labour - but it's why they sure as hell aren't going to listen to anything the Tories have to say.

TOPPING · July 2018

MJW said:

TOPPING said:

anothernick said:
I am a little surprised by this finding. I canvassed extensively in south London in 2017 and quite often came across Tory voters switching to Labour because of Brexit. Maybe there were fewer of them in other parts of the country.
I have said exactly the same about West London but was assured that London is a special case, which I agree it is to an extent.
There's also the point that Brexit might show up less as it was more of an underlying factor as to why younger more liberal voters ruled out even considering the Tories rather than a positive factor - which people will explain by reverting to what they like about Labour. This is especially true as Labour's Brexit stance didn't really enthuse many Remainers, who nonetheless voted for them as being more in line with their other values - e.g. pro-public services - than a Tory Party they viewed as not liking or wanting to understand them or their concerns.

Back in the glory days of New Labour the Tories put off a lot of voters by looking like a bunch of corrupt, hypocritical old men you'd avoid in a pub, who were obsessed with Europe and determined to criticise anyone having any fun (all the while shagging their secretary) - but I'd wager that if you ran a similar poll at the time you'd get a similar result - Labour voters saying they were voting that way because of the NHS, or schools. But an underlying factor was that a lot of people had just tuned out of anything the Tories had to say as culturally irrelevant and antagonistic to them. Brexit is arguably a similar motivatory factor - it's not the reason someone will give for voting Labour - but it's why they sure as hell aren't going to listen to anything the Tories have to say.

One of the other common themes I encountered on the doorstep (and believe myself, that said) was and is the retoxification of the Tories along the lines you say.

kjh · July 2018

anothernick said:

Foxy said:

Beverley_C said:

currystar said:

Philip_Thompson said:
FPT
another_richard said:

MaxPB said:
Absolutely mega borrowing figures for the government, again. Implies 1.8% YoY growth from my back of the fag packet calculation.
I'd say quite good rather than mega.

But lets remember the OBR's March 2018 borrowing prediction for the year ending March 2018 was £45.2bn compared with actual borrowing of £39.4bn.

The OBR's borrowing predicting of £37.1bn for 2018/19 looks like it could be about £8bn too high as well.
At this rate looks rather like we could actually be on target to reach a budget surplus by 2020 afterall.
Is this another example of this totally incompetent government?
Perhaps it is an example of a competent Chancellor who the Brexiteers dislike intensely and sideline at every opportunity?
Hammond is undervalued by the betting markets, but seems to have quite a lot of support amongst the Cabinet and Parliamentary party. He is sane enough to deliver a soft Brexit too, the obstacle being that if he were to go to a members vote, the wider party would be likely to go for a frothy mouthed populist.
i doubt Hammond (or anyone else) could deliver a soft Brexit. Both ERG ultras and ultra remainers now seem to think that taking us to the cliff edge is likely to result in victory for their side of the argument. The ERG want to jump and remainers think that the prospect of no deal will result in a u turn on the whole idea, which is why Mandelson and Adonis have come out strongly against the Chequers plan. And Labour will stick with its six tests, which no soft Brexit plan the Tories come up with will ever meet.

Soft Brexit is dead, it's either the cliff edge or some form of u turn, perhaps dressed up as a temporary postponement of withdrawal.

I agree with that analysis.

Theuniondivvie · July 2018

After the last 'not coming home' outbreak I hesitate to comment, but this is bollocks isn't it? Apart from anything else, how was the Crosses of St George per square mile measuring done?

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1020171443513053184

Pulpstar · July 2018

Theuniondivvie said:
After the last 'not coming home' outbreak I hesitate to comment, but this is bollocks isn't it? Apart from anything else, how was the Crosses of St George per square mile measuring done?

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1020171443513053184

Tosh, saw plenty - even in middle class areas.

MarqueeMark · July 2018

Theuniondivvie said:
After the last 'not coming home' outbreak I hesitate to comment, but this is bollocks isn't it? Apart from anything else, how was the Crosses of St George per square mile measuring done?

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1020171443513053184

She didn't go to Bermondsey then.....

anothernick · July 2018

currystar said:

anothernick said:

Foxy said:

Beverley_C said:

currystar said:

Philip_Thompson said:
FPT
another_richard said:

MaxPB said:
Absolutely mega borrowing figures for the government, again. Implies 1.8% YoY growth from my back of the fag packet calculation.
I'd say quite good rather than mega.

But lets remember the OBR's March 2018 borrowing prediction for the year ending March 2018 was £45.2bn compared with actual borrowing of £39.4bn.

The OBR's borrowing predicting of £37.1bn for 2018/19 looks like it could be about £8bn too high as well.
At this rate looks rather like we could actually be on target to reach a budget surplus by 2020 afterall.
Is this another example of this totally incompetent government?
Perhaps it is an example of a competent Chancellor who the Brexiteers dislike intensely and sideline at every opportunity?
Hammond is undervalued by the betting markets, but seems to have quite a lot of support amongst the Cabinet and Parliamentary party. He is sane enough to deliver a soft Brexit too, the obstacle being that if he were to go to a members vote, the wider party would be likely to go for a frothy mouthed populist.
i doubt Hammond (or anyone else) could deliver a soft Brexit. Both ERG ultras and ultra remainers now seem to think that taking us to the cliff edge is likely to result in victory for their side of the argument. The ERG want to jump and remainers think that the prospect of no deal will result in a u turn on the whole idea, which is why Mandelson and Adonis have come out strongly against the Chequers plan. And Labour will stick with its six tests, which no soft Brexit plan the Tories come up with will ever meet.

Soft Brexit is dead, it's either the cliff edge or some form of u turn, perhaps dressed up as a temporary postponement of withdrawal.
Or the EU governments have a word with Barnier

The EU may shift its position a bit but the chances of negotiating a deal that can command a majority in parliament in the very short time available are pretty much nil. The only deal that could be done in a few months would be an off the shelf copy of an existing arrangement EEA, Canada, Norway, perhaps Switzerland. None of these would stand a chance of getting through the Cabinet, let alone the Tory party or the Commons.

Recidivist · July 2018

OblitusSumMe said:

Philip_Thompson said:
Interestingly only 65% of Labour voters appear to have even given a reason (from the top 5).
While 88% of Tory voters have given a reason.

Does that mean a significant proportion of Labour voters are voting Labour regardless of reasons or policies?
Looking at the detail in the data tables it's simply that Labour voters choose a wider variety of reasons beyond the top five. Don't know/no answer is 2% for Labour voters and 1% for Tory voters, but it's closer than that before rounding.

Ashcroft gave people 21 categories to choose from.

So it supports my observation that Labour voters are more interested in politics and better informed about it.

justin124 · July 2018

Sandpit said:

currystar said:

Philip_Thompson said:
FPT
another_richard said:

MaxPB said:
Absolutely mega borrowing figures for the government, again. Implies 1.8% YoY growth from my back of the fag packet calculation.
I'd say quite good rather than mega.

But lets remember the OBR's March 2018 borrowing prediction for the year ending March 2018 was £45.2bn compared with actual borrowing of £39.4bn.

The OBR's borrowing predicting of £37.1bn for 2018/19 looks like it could be about £8bn too high as well.
At this rate looks rather like we could actually be on target to reach a budget surplus by 2020 afterall.
Is this another example of this totally incompetent government?
Not a day too soon, then the gargantuan task of paying down the debt can begin in earnest.

But Debt Interest is a much lighter burden in relation to GDP than when Neville Chamberlain was Chancellor in the 1930s!

MaxPB · July 2018

Theuniondivvie said:
After the last 'not coming home' outbreak I hesitate to comment, but this is bollocks isn't it? Apart from anything else, how was the Crosses of St George per square mile measuring done?

https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1020171443513053184

Yes, complete bollocks.

El_Capitano · July 2018

Danny565 said:
it was usually mentioned as a reason not to vote Labour ("Theresa has more balls and will take a tougher stand in the negotiations

Life comes at you fast.

Nigel_Foremain · July 2018

Beverley_C said:

currystar said:

Philip_Thompson said:
FPT
another_richard said:

MaxPB said:
Absolutely mega borrowing figures for the government, again. Implies 1.8% YoY growth from my back of the fag packet calculation.
I'd say quite good rather than mega.

But lets remember the OBR's March 2018 borrowing prediction for the year ending March 2018 was £45.2bn compared with actual borrowing of £39.4bn.

The OBR's borrowing predicting of £37.1bn for 2018/19 looks like it could be about £8bn too high as well.
At this rate looks rather like we could actually be on target to reach a budget surplus by 2020 afterall.
Is this another example of this totally incompetent government?
Perhaps it is an example of a competent Chancellor who the Brexiteers dislike intensely and sideline at every opportunity?

He understands business. 98% of brexiteers haven't got the first clue. When our ex Foreign Secretary said "fuck business" this journo-politician summed up how these lunatics see the world

Pulpstar · July 2018

currystar said:

anothernick said:

Foxy said:

Beverley_C said:

currystar said:

Philip_Thompson said:
FPT
another_richard said:

MaxPB said:
Absolutely mega borrowing figures for the government, again. Implies 1.8% YoY growth from my back of the fag packet calculation.
I'd say quite good rather than mega.

But lets remember the OBR's March 2018 borrowing prediction for the year ending March 2018 was £45.2bn compared with actual borrowing of £39.4bn.

The OBR's borrowing predicting of £37.1bn for 2018/19 looks like it could be about £8bn too high as well.
At this rate looks rather like we could actually be on target to reach a budget surplus by 2020 afterall.
Is this another example of this totally incompetent government?
Perhaps it is an example of a competent Chancellor who the Brexiteers dislike intensely and sideline at every opportunity?
Hammond is undervalued by the betting markets, but seems to have quite a lot of support amongst the Cabinet and Parliamentary party. He is sane enough to deliver a soft Brexit too, the obstacle being that if he were to go to a members vote, the wider party would be likely to go for a frothy mouthed populist.
i doubt Hammond (or anyone else) could deliver a soft Brexit. Both ERG ultras and ultra remainers now seem to think that taking us to the cliff edge is likely to result in victory for their side of the argument. The ERG want to jump and remainers think that the prospect of no deal will result in a u turn on the whole idea, which is why Mandelson and Adonis have come out strongly against the Chequers plan. And Labour will stick with its six tests, which no soft Brexit plan the Tories come up with will ever meet.

Soft Brexit is dead, it's either the cliff edge or some form of u turn, perhaps dressed up as a temporary postponement of withdrawal.
Or the EU governments have a word with Barnier

Barnier hasn't been boxed in by all sides, unlike May.

Sean_F · July 2018

TOPPING said:

MJW said:

TOPPING said:

anothernick said:
I am a little surprised by this finding. I canvassed extensively in south London in 2017 and quite often came across Tory voters switching to Labour because of Brexit. Maybe there were fewer of them in other parts of the country.
I have said exactly the same about West London but was assured that London is a special case, which I agree it is to an extent.
There's also the point that Brexit might show up less as it was more of an underlying factor as to why younger more liberal voters ruled out even considering the Tories rather than a positive factor - which people will explain by reverting to what they like about Labour. This is especially true as Labour's Brexit stance didn't really enthuse many Remainers, who nonetheless voted for them as being more in line with their other values - e.g. pro-public services - than a Tory Party they viewed as not liking or wanting to understand them or their concerns.

Back in the glory days of New Labour the Tories put off a lot of voters by looking like a bunch of corrupt, hypocritical old men you'd avoid in a pub, who were obsessed with Europe and determined to criticise anyone having any fun (all the while shagging their secretary) - but I'd wager that if you ran a similar poll at the time you'd get a similar result - Labour voters saying they were voting that way because of the NHS, or schools. But an underlying factor was that a lot of people had just tuned out of anything the Tories had to say as culturally irrelevant and antagonistic to them. Brexit is arguably a similar motivatory factor - it's not the reason someone will give for voting Labour - but it's why they sure as hell aren't going to listen to anything the Tories have to say.
One of the other common themes I encountered on the doorstep (and believe myself, that said) was and is the retoxification of the Tories along the lines you say.

I think it's variable. The Conservatives have certainly been toxified in most of London.

But, there are also parts of the country where their support has never been greater, in the post-war period.

TOPPING · July 2018

I think we are reaching some sort of an endgame now (ha haha hahahahaha).

But anyway. It is clear that May is presenting the no Irish Sea border as her totemic fight against the EU.

https://theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/19/theresa-may-i-will-never-accept-eus-ideas-on-irish-brexit-border

https://thetimes.co.uk/article/i-wont-compromise-on-ulster-border-says-may-dsvdrzzhz

etc.

As I said late last night, her NI position seems quite coherent. And these headlines are setting up a "victory over Europe" situation.

The backstop document proposed that the whole of the UK would stay in the Customs Union and that there would be no border in the Irish Sea. Her Chequers paper reiterated that and so did Jolyon Maugham's "scoop" quote.

Juncker said that they would examine closely whether the backstop could apply to the whole of the UK and likewise he had been asked again by Chequers.

She is now "challenging" the EU to be flexible. The only way they will do this, IMO, is to accept her plan to allow a common rulebook for the whole of the UK, not just for NI.

This will then be spun as a victory for all concerned.

Does rely on the EU accepting Chequers, extending the alignment to the whole of the UK, that said.

Sandpit · July 2018

brendan16 said:

Sandpit said:

currystar said:

Philip_Thompson said:
FPT
another_richard said:

MaxPB said:
Absolutely mega borrowing figures for the government, again. Implies 1.8% YoY growth from my back of the fag packet calculation.
I'd say quite good rather than mega.

But lets remember the OBR's March 2018 borrowing prediction for the year ending March 2018 was £45.2bn compared with actual borrowing of £39.4bn.

The OBR's borrowing predicting of £37.1bn for 2018/19 looks like it could be about £8bn too high as well.
At this rate looks rather like we could actually be on target to reach a budget surplus by 2020 afterall.
Is this another example of this totally incompetent government?
Not a day too soon, then the gargantuan task of paying down the debt can begin in earnest.
It's amazing no one ever really discusses this £53bn annual debt interest figure - 53 times what May gave to NI under the DUP deal every year for decades more. I don't see us ever paying down the debt given rising spending pressures and politics as now.

Indeed so. The government should be shouting from the rooftops that we spend half the annual NHS budget paying the interest on the government's mortgage for spending that’s already happened. The size of the government debt must also be playing on the mind of the MPC, and a significant factor in keeping interest rates on the floor - with the consequent distortions to the investment, pensions and housing markets that are causing so many other political and financial problems.

Nigelb · July 2018

Stark_Dawning said:

Beverley_C said:

currystar said:

Philip_Thompson said:
FPT
another_richard said:

MaxPB said:
Absolutely mega borrowing figures for the government, again. Implies 1.8% YoY growth from my back of the fag packet calculation.
I'd say quite good rather than mega.

But lets remember the OBR's March 2018 borrowing prediction for the year ending March 2018 was £45.2bn compared with actual borrowing of £39.4bn.

The OBR's borrowing predicting of £37.1bn for 2018/19 looks like it could be about £8bn too high as well.
At this rate looks rather like we could actually be on target to reach a budget surplus by 2020 afterall.
Is this another example of this totally incompetent government?
Perhaps it is an example of a competent Chancellor who the Brexiteers dislike intensely and sideline at every opportunity?
Quite right. It's ridiculous to think that lugubrious old Phil had anything to do with it during his short and uninspiring tenure. These things take years to engineer. George take a long and richly deserved bow.

No, it's not ridiculous at all. Rather it's a demonstration of the value of relative continuity and certainty in financial planning, which is to the credit of both of them.

Of course Brexit raises a few questions about what happens next...

MarqueeMark · July 2018

Pulpstar said:

currystar said:

anothernick said:

Foxy said:

Beverley_C said:

currystar said:

Philip_Thompson said:
FPT
another_richard said:

MaxPB said:
Absolutely mega borrowing figures for the government, again. Implies 1.8% YoY growth from my back of the fag packet calculation.
I'd say quite good rather than mega.

But lets remember the OBR's March 2018 borrowing prediction for the year ending March 2018 was £45.2bn compared with actual borrowing of £39.4bn.

The OBR's borrowing predicting of £37.1bn for 2018/19 looks like it could be about £8bn too high as well.
At this rate looks rather like we could actually be on target to reach a budget surplus by 2020 afterall.
Is this another example of this totally incompetent government?
Perhaps it is an example of a competent Chancellor who the Brexiteers dislike intensely and sideline at every opportunity?
Hammond is undervalued by the betting markets, but seems to have quite a lot of support amongst the Cabinet and Parliamentary party. He is sane enough to deliver a soft Brexit too, the obstacle being that if he were to go to a members vote, the wider party would be likely to go for a frothy mouthed populist.
i doubt Hammond (or anyone else) could deliver a soft Brexit. Both ERG ultras and ultra remainers now seem to think that taking us to the cliff edge is likely to result in victory for their side of the argument. The ERG want to jump and remainers think that the prospect of no deal will result in a u turn on the whole idea, which is why Mandelson and Adonis have come out strongly against the Chequers plan. And Labour will stick with its six tests, which no soft Brexit plan the Tories come up with will ever meet.

Soft Brexit is dead, it's either the cliff edge or some form of u turn, perhaps dressed up as a temporary postponement of withdrawal.
Or the EU governments have a word with Barnier
Barnier hasn't been boxed in by all sides, unlike May.

Wait until the prospect of forty billion not turning up hits home.

Would be ironic if Osborne's Emergency Budget caused by Brexit was not in the UK, but in the EU.....

Pulpstar · July 2018

TOPPING said:
I think we are reaching some sort of an endgame now (ha haha hahahahaha).

But anyway. It is clear that May is presenting the no Irish Sea border as her totemic fight against the EU.

https://theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/19/theresa-may-i-will-never-accept-eus-ideas-on-irish-brexit-border

https://thetimes.co.uk/article/i-wont-compromise-on-ulster-border-says-may-dsvdrzzhz

etc.

As I said late last night, her NI position seems quite coherent. And these headlines are setting up a "victory over Europe" situation.

The backstop document proposed that the whole of the UK would stay in the Customs Union and that there would be no border in the Irish Sea. Her Chequers paper reiterated that and so did Jolyon Maugham's "scoop" quote.

Juncker said that they would examine closely whether the backstop could apply to the whole of the UK and likewise he had been asked again by Chequers.

She is now "challenging" the EU to be flexible. The only way they will do this, IMO, is to accept her plan to allow a common rulebook for the whole of the UK, not just for NI.

This will then be spun as a victory for all concerned.

Does rely on the EU accepting Chequers, extending the alignment to the whole of the UK, that said.

Didn't Barnier rule this out ?

David_Evershed · July 2018

Given that the Lib Dems picked up few additonal votes at the 2017 General Election, it suggests that Remainers don't feel sufficiently strongly about Brexit to sway them to vote Lib Dem.

Whereas Leavers feel sufficiently strongly about Brexit to vote Conservative.

So whilst the country is split 52% Leave 48% Remain, the 52% really care about the issue whilst fewer of the Remainers feel strongly about Brexit.

In the event of another referendum or general election the strength of feeling amongst Leavers could be decisive.

OblitusSumMe · July 2018

anothernick said:
The EU may shift its position a bit but the chances of negotiating a deal that can command a majority in parliament in the very short time available are pretty much nil. The only deal that could be done in a few months would be an off the shelf copy of an existing arrangement EEA, Canada, Norway, perhaps Switzerland. None of these would stand a chance of getting through the Cabinet, let alone the Tory party or the Commons.

The problem seems more fundamental than that. May today appears to repudiate the guarantee on the Irish border that she gave in December. If the EU insist that it is necessary for the withdrawal agreement then we are down to two options: extend the Article 50 deadline or crash out with no transition period and no agreement on anything.

There will obviously be a strong inclination to kick the can down the road. There always is. On the other hand the EU may find it difficult to agree to extending talks if they feel that the British have gone back on something agreed in December.

I feel very pessimistic.

DavidL · July 2018

FPT
MaxPB said:
» show previous quotes
Down £5.4bn YTD is mega. That run rate implies a drop in borrowing of over £21bn this year which would bring the deficit down to around £18-19bn. I don't think that's going to happen, however, I think we can pencil in a £12-13bn drop which would bring the deficit down to around £27bn or around 1.4% of GDP.

Also, the OBR have proven themselves to be completely shit at this stuff. I stick with the City consensus now, the OBR projections aren't worth anything.
I said:
The figure for July with the payment of self employed taxes will give us a better idea. I would be interested in how you got from these figures to 1.8% GDP YoY. Tax revenues were up 3% but I think that is nominal so it only matches inflation. What is happening is that government spending is being kept on a very tight leash.

Pulpstar · July 2018

MarqueeMark said:

Pulpstar said:

currystar said:

anothernick said:

Foxy said:

Beverley_C said:

currystar said:

Philip_Thompson said:
FPT
another_richard said:

MaxPB said:
Absolutely mega borrowing figures for the government, again. Implies 1.8% YoY growth from my back of the fag packet calculation.
I'd say quite good rather than mega.

But lets remember the OBR's March 2018 borrowing prediction for the year ending March 2018 was £45.2bn compared with actual borrowing of £39.4bn.

The OBR's borrowing predicting of £37.1bn for 2018/19 looks like it could be about £8bn too high as well.
At this rate looks rather like we could actually be on target to reach a budget surplus by 2020 afterall.
Is this another example of this totally incompetent government?
Perhaps it is an example of a competent Chancellor who the Brexiteers dislike intensely and sideline at every opportunity?
Hammond is undervalued by the betting markets, but seems to have quite a lot of support amongst the Cabinet and Parliamentary party. He is sane enough to deliver a soft Brexit too, the obstacle being that if he were to go to a members vote, the wider party would be likely to go for a frothy mouthed populist.
i doubt Hammond (or anyone else) could deliver a soft Brexit. Both ERG ultras and ultra remainers now seem to think that taking us to the cliff edge is likely to result in victory for their side of the argument. The ERG want to jump and remainers think that the prospect of no deal will result in a u turn on the whole idea, which is why Mandelson and Adonis have come out strongly against the Chequers plan. And Labour will stick with its six tests, which no soft Brexit plan the Tories come up with will ever meet.

Soft Brexit is dead, it's either the cliff edge or some form of u turn, perhaps dressed up as a temporary postponement of withdrawal.
Or the EU governments have a word with Barnier
Barnier hasn't been boxed in by all sides, unlike May.
Wait until the prospect of forty billion not turnng up hits home.

Would be ironic if Osborne's Emergency Budget caused by Brexit was not in the UK, but in the EU.....

The forty billion will be paid come what may, UK Gov'ts always have a desperate desire to be seen to be playing nicely.
Remember Osborne and the last EU bill ?

MaxPB · July 2018

DavidL said:

MaxPB said:

another_richard said:

MaxPB said:
Absolutely mega borrowing figures for the government, again. Implies 1.8% YoY growth from my back of the fag packet calculation.
I'd say quite good rather than mega.

But lets remember the OBR's March 2018 borrowing prediction for the year ending March 2018 was £45.2bn compared with actual borrowing of £39.4bn.

The OBR's borrowing predicting of £37.1bn for 2018/19 looks like it could be about £8bn too high as well.
Down £5.4bn YTD is mega. That run rate implies a drop in borrowing of over £21bn this year which would bring the deficit down to around £18-19bn. I don't think that's going to happen, however, I think we can pencil in a £12-13bn drop which would bring the deficit down to around £27bn or around 1.4% of GDP.

Also, the OBR have proven themselves to be completely shit at this stuff. I stick with the City consensus now, the OBR projections aren't worth anything.
The figure for July with the payment of self employed taxes will give us a better idea. I would be interested in how you got from these figures to 1.8% GDP YoY. Tax revenues were up 3% but I think that is nominal so it only matches inflation. What is happening is that government spending is being kept on a very tight leash.

Once you account for APF receipts and cash value tax cuts it is 1.7% YoY GDP growth (final estimate). Nominally the taxes that correlate best to growth are up by about 4.3% YoY.

Sean_F · July 2018

Pulpstar said:

TOPPING said:
I think we are reaching some sort of an endgame now (ha haha hahahahaha).

But anyway. It is clear that May is presenting the no Irish Sea border as her totemic fight against the EU.

https://theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/19/theresa-may-i-will-never-accept-eus-ideas-on-irish-brexit-border

https://thetimes.co.uk/article/i-wont-compromise-on-ulster-border-says-may-dsvdrzzhz

etc.

As I said late last night, her NI position seems quite coherent. And these headlines are setting up a "victory over Europe" situation.

The backstop document proposed that the whole of the UK would stay in the Customs Union and that there would be no border in the Irish Sea. Her Chequers paper reiterated that and so did Jolyon Maugham's "scoop" quote.

Juncker said that they would examine closely whether the backstop could apply to the whole of the UK and likewise he had been asked again by Chequers.

She is now "challenging" the EU to be flexible. The only way they will do this, IMO, is to accept her plan to allow a common rulebook for the whole of the UK, not just for NI.

This will then be spun as a victory for all concerned.

Does rely on the EU accepting Chequers, extending the alignment to the whole of the UK, that said.
Didn't Barnier rule this out ?

Which I've never understood. A backstop which saw the whole UK aligned with the EU would surely be an excellent result for the EU.

TOPPING · July 2018

Pulpstar said:

TOPPING said:
I think we are reaching some sort of an endgame now (ha haha hahahahaha).

But anyway. It is clear that May is presenting the no Irish Sea border as her totemic fight against the EU.

https://theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/19/theresa-may-i-will-never-accept-eus-ideas-on-irish-brexit-border

https://thetimes.co.uk/article/i-wont-compromise-on-ulster-border-says-may-dsvdrzzhz

etc.

As I said late last night, her NI position seems quite coherent. And these headlines are setting up a "victory over Europe" situation.

The backstop document proposed that the whole of the UK would stay in the Customs Union and that there would be no border in the Irish Sea. Her Chequers paper reiterated that and so did Jolyon Maugham's "scoop" quote.

Juncker said that they would examine closely whether the backstop could apply to the whole of the UK and likewise he had been asked again by Chequers.

She is now "challenging" the EU to be flexible. The only way they will do this, IMO, is to accept her plan to allow a common rulebook for the whole of the UK, not just for NI.

This will then be spun as a victory for all concerned.

Does rely on the EU accepting Chequers, extending the alignment to the whole of the UK, that said.
Didn't Barnier rule this out ?

Yes. So we shall see whether he will be pragmatic. I would be amazed if Tezza hadn't pre-negotiated this. I mean it's her white paper. Please tell me that she liaised with Brussels beforehand...

OblitusSumMe · July 2018

Sean_F said:

Pulpstar said:

TOPPING said:
I think we are reaching some sort of an endgame now (ha haha hahahahaha).

But anyway. It is clear that May is presenting the no Irish Sea border as her totemic fight against the EU.

https://theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/19/theresa-may-i-will-never-accept-eus-ideas-on-irish-brexit-border

https://thetimes.co.uk/article/i-wont-compromise-on-ulster-border-says-may-dsvdrzzhz

etc.

As I said late last night, her NI position seems quite coherent. And these headlines are setting up a "victory over Europe" situation.

The backstop document proposed that the whole of the UK would stay in the Customs Union and that there would be no border in the Irish Sea. Her Chequers paper reiterated that and so did Jolyon Maugham's "scoop" quote.

Juncker said that they would examine closely whether the backstop could apply to the whole of the UK and likewise he had been asked again by Chequers.

She is now "challenging" the EU to be flexible. The only way they will do this, IMO, is to accept her plan to allow a common rulebook for the whole of the UK, not just for NI.

This will then be spun as a victory for all concerned.

Does rely on the EU accepting Chequers, extending the alignment to the whole of the UK, that said.
Didn't Barnier rule this out ?
Which I've never understood. A backstop which saw the whole UK aligned with the EU would surely be an excellent result for the EU.

Not if the backstop is a backdoor way of splitting the four freedoms.

TOPPING · July 2018

Sean_F said:

Pulpstar said:

TOPPING said:
I think we are reaching some sort of an endgame now (ha haha hahahahaha).

But anyway. It is clear that May is presenting the no Irish Sea border as her totemic fight against the EU.

https://theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/19/theresa-may-i-will-never-accept-eus-ideas-on-irish-brexit-border

https://thetimes.co.uk/article/i-wont-compromise-on-ulster-border-says-may-dsvdrzzhz

etc.

As I said late last night, her NI position seems quite coherent. And these headlines are setting up a "victory over Europe" situation.

The backstop document proposed that the whole of the UK would stay in the Customs Union and that there would be no border in the Irish Sea. Her Chequers paper reiterated that and so did Jolyon Maugham's "scoop" quote.

Juncker said that they would examine closely whether the backstop could apply to the whole of the UK and likewise he had been asked again by Chequers.

She is now "challenging" the EU to be flexible. The only way they will do this, IMO, is to accept her plan to allow a common rulebook for the whole of the UK, not just for NI.

This will then be spun as a victory for all concerned.

Does rely on the EU accepting Chequers, extending the alignment to the whole of the UK, that said.
Didn't Barnier rule this out ?
Which I've never understood. A backstop which saw the whole UK aligned with the EU would surely be an excellent result for the EU.

I suppose you could call it cherry-picking but frankly, for goods only, without services (which actually we need/should want more than goods) and FoM it surely represents an acceptable fudge.

Especially if, like the backstop doc, it is couched in "time limited"..."until we figure it all out"...type of language.

But we shall see.

surby · July 2018

OblitusSumMe said:

anothernick said:
The EU may shift its position a bit but the chances of negotiating a deal that can command a majority in parliament in the very short time available are pretty much nil. The only deal that could be done in a few months would be an off the shelf copy of an existing arrangement EEA, Canada, Norway, perhaps Switzerland. None of these would stand a chance of getting through the Cabinet, let alone the Tory party or the Commons.
The problem seems more fundamental than that. May today appears to repudiate the guarantee on the Irish border that she gave in December. If the EU insist that it is necessary for the withdrawal agreement then we are down to two options: extend the Article 50 deadline or crash out with no transition period and no agreement on anything.

There will obviously be a strong inclination to kick the can down the road. There always is. On the other hand the EU may find it difficult to agree to extending talks if they feel that the British have gone back on something agreed in December.

I feel very pessimistic.

Based on May's volte face on the backstop, there will be no withdrawal agreement.

Extension of Art.50 is a sensible solution. But that is not for the EC to decide. All 27 countries would need to agree. Now with Italy in the hands of right wing populists and neo-fascism ruling Eastern Europe, there will need to be kickbacks. So this may not happen in the time frame.

In the UK, the Headbangers will not agree to the extension because it could be permanent !!!!!!!

That leaves us two options:

1. WTO - against which there is a big majority in Parliament

2. A second vote - which Parliament with a narrower majority could agree with multiple ballots/votes.

Sandpit · July 2018

Pulpstar said:

TOPPING said:
I think we are reaching some sort of an endgame now (ha haha hahahahaha).

But anyway. It is clear that May is presenting the no Irish Sea border as her totemic fight against the EU.

https://theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/19/theresa-may-i-will-never-accept-eus-ideas-on-irish-brexit-border

https://thetimes.co.uk/article/i-wont-compromise-on-ulster-border-says-may-dsvdrzzhz

etc.

As I said late last night, her NI position seems quite coherent. And these headlines are setting up a "victory over Europe" situation.

The backstop document proposed that the whole of the UK would stay in the Customs Union and that there would be no border in the Irish Sea. Her Chequers paper reiterated that and so did Jolyon Maugham's "scoop" quote.

Juncker said that they would examine closely whether the backstop could apply to the whole of the UK and likewise he had been asked again by Chequers.

She is now "challenging" the EU to be flexible. The only way they will do this, IMO, is to accept her plan to allow a common rulebook for the whole of the UK, not just for NI.

This will then be spun as a victory for all concerned.

Does rely on the EU accepting Chequers, extending the alignment to the whole of the UK, that said.
Didn't Barnier rule this out ?

I thought he’d said that the backstop can only apply to NI and not to the UK as a whole, this from the March “Legal text of the December agreement”. Hence the comments about the EU trying to effectively annex NI and force a border in the Irish Sea. Barnier thinks that allowing the backstop to cover the whole of the UK would be “cherry-picking”.

MarqueeMark · July 2018

TOPPING said:

Pulpstar said:

TOPPING said:
I think we are reaching some sort of an endgame now (ha haha hahahahaha).

But anyway. It is clear that May is presenting the no Irish Sea border as her totemic fight against the EU.

https://theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/19/theresa-may-i-will-never-accept-eus-ideas-on-irish-brexit-border

https://thetimes.co.uk/article/i-wont-compromise-on-ulster-border-says-may-dsvdrzzhz

etc.

As I said late last night, her NI position seems quite coherent. And these headlines are setting up a "victory over Europe" situation.

The backstop document proposed that the whole of the UK would stay in the Customs Union and that there would be no border in the Irish Sea. Her Chequers paper reiterated that and so did Jolyon Maugham's "scoop" quote.

Juncker said that they would examine closely whether the backstop could apply to the whole of the UK and likewise he had been asked again by Chequers.

She is now "challenging" the EU to be flexible. The only way they will do this, IMO, is to accept her plan to allow a common rulebook for the whole of the UK, not just for NI.

This will then be spun as a victory for all concerned.

Does rely on the EU accepting Chequers, extending the alignment to the whole of the UK, that said.
Didn't Barnier rule this out ?
Yes. So we shall see whether he will be pragmatic. I would be amazed if Tezza hadn't pre-negotiated this. I mean it's her white paper. Please tell me that she liaised with Brussels beforehand...

I thought it was Berlin?

Recidivist · July 2018

David_Evershed said:
Given that the Lib Dems picked up few additonal votes at the 2017 General Election, it suggests that Remainers don't feel sufficiently strongly about Brexit to sway them to vote Lib Dem.

Whereas Leavers feel sufficiently strongly about Brexit to vote Conservative.

So whilst the country is split 52% Leave 48% Remain, the 52% really care about the issue whilst fewer of the Remainers feel strongly about Brexit.

In the event of another referendum or general election the strength of feeling amongst Leavers could be decisive.

And yet it is the remain side that can get huge numbers out to a demonstration.

rottenborough · July 2018

Sun says 35 letters have gone in (in total, so far).

Nigel_Foremain · July 2018

Sean_F said:

Pulpstar said:

TOPPING said:
I think we are reaching some sort of an endgame now (ha haha hahahahaha).

But anyway. It is clear that May is presenting the no Irish Sea border as her totemic fight against the EU.

https://theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/19/theresa-may-i-will-never-accept-eus-ideas-on-irish-brexit-border

https://thetimes.co.uk/article/i-wont-compromise-on-ulster-border-says-may-dsvdrzzhz

etc.

As I said late last night, her NI position seems quite coherent. And these headlines are setting up a "victory over Europe" situation.

The backstop document proposed that the whole of the UK would stay in the Customs Union and that there would be no border in the Irish Sea. Her Chequers paper reiterated that and so did Jolyon Maugham's "scoop" quote.

Juncker said that they would examine closely whether the backstop could apply to the whole of the UK and likewise he had been asked again by Chequers.

She is now "challenging" the EU to be flexible. The only way they will do this, IMO, is to accept her plan to allow a common rulebook for the whole of the UK, not just for NI.

This will then be spun as a victory for all concerned.

Does rely on the EU accepting Chequers, extending the alignment to the whole of the UK, that said.
Didn't Barnier rule this out ?
Which I've never understood. A backstop which saw the whole UK aligned with the EU would surely be an excellent result for the EU.

And what would be an "excellent result" for UK plc.? can someone please tell me? A friend said to me shortly after the referendum result that nothing good will come from it, and that is looking like a pretty good prediction. It is all a pointless farce, unless you are a journalist or a politician, in which case it is a jolly jape, and who cares if lots of people lose their jobs? Price worth paying old bean they might say while privately sipping their vintage Krug.

DecrepitJohnL · July 2018

Sandpit said:

brendan16 said:

Sandpit said:

currystar said:

Philip_Thompson said:
FPT
another_richard said:

MaxPB said:
Absolutely mega borrowing figures for the government, again. Implies 1.8% YoY growth from my back of the fag packet calculation.
I'd say quite good rather than mega.

But lets remember the OBR's March 2018 borrowing prediction for the year ending March 2018 was £45.2bn compared with actual borrowing of £39.4bn.

The OBR's borrowing predicting of £37.1bn for 2018/19 looks like it could be about £8bn too high as well.
At this rate looks rather like we could actually be on target to reach a budget surplus by 2020 afterall.
Is this another example of this totally incompetent government?
Not a day too soon, then the gargantuan task of paying down the debt can begin in earnest.
It's amazing no one ever really discusses this £53bn annual debt interest figure - 53 times what May gave to NI under the DUP deal every year for decades more. I don't see us ever paying down the debt given rising spending pressures and politics as now.
Indeed so. The government should be shouting from the rooftops that we spend half the annual NHS budget paying the interest on the government's mortgage for spending that’s already happened. The size of the government debt must also be playing on the mind of the MPC, and a significant factor in keeping interest rates on the floor - with the consequent distortions to the investment, pensions and housing markets that are causing so many other political and financial problems.

How much of this annual debt repayment is real and not just funny money transfers from one branch of government to another?

DavidL · July 2018

Pulpstar said:

MarqueeMark said:

Pulpstar said:

currystar said:

anothernick said:

Foxy said:

Beverley_C said:

currystar said:

Philip_Thompson said:
FPT
another_richard said:

MaxPB said:

i doubt Hammond (or anyone else) could deliver a soft Brexit. Both ERG ultras and ultra remainers now seem to think that taking us to the cliff edge is likely to result in victory for their side of the argument. The ERG want to jump and remainers think that the prospect of no deal will result in a u turn on the whole idea, which is why Mandelson and Adonis have come out strongly against the Chequers plan. And Labour will stick with its six tests, which no soft Brexit plan the Tories come up with will ever meet.

Soft Brexit is dead, it's either the cliff edge or some form of u turn, perhaps dressed up as a temporary postponement of withdrawal.
Or the EU governments have a word with Barnier
Barnier hasn't been boxed in by all sides, unlike May.
Wait until the prospect of forty billion not turnng up hits home.

Would be ironic if Osborne's Emergency Budget caused by Brexit was not in the UK, but in the EU.....
The forty billion will be paid come what may, UK Gov'ts always have a desperate desire to be seen to be playing nicely.
Remember Osborne and the last EU bill ?

In June we paid £628m to the EU. This included a discount because our economy had not done as well as some on the continent and our share of the budget was smaller for some earlier years. Without that we would have paid £865m. The sooner these payments (which are net of our rebate) stop, the better.

grabcocque · July 2018

Sean_F said:

But, there are also parts of the country where their support has never been greater, in the post-war period.

That's how it starts, but the toxin spreads.

The *overwhelmingly* negative reaction of Middle Tory England to May's tawdry compromise could be the beginning of rural and suburban England turning against the Tories.

TOPPING · July 2018

OblitusSumMe said:

anothernick said:
The EU may shift its position a bit but the chances of negotiating a deal that can command a majority in parliament in the very short time available are pretty much nil. The only deal that could be done in a few months would be an off the shelf copy of an existing arrangement EEA, Canada, Norway, perhaps Switzerland. None of these would stand a chance of getting through the Cabinet, let alone the Tory party or the Commons.
The problem seems more fundamental than that. May today appears to repudiate the guarantee on the Irish border that she gave in December. If the EU insist that it is necessary for the withdrawal agreement then we are down to two options: extend the Article 50 deadline or crash out with no transition period and no agreement on anything.

There will obviously be a strong inclination to kick the can down the road. There always is. On the other hand the EU may find it difficult to agree to extending talks if they feel that the British have gone back on something agreed in December.

I feel very pessimistic.

There is no way even the EU would expect the UK to siphon off NI and cede it to another set of rules & regs. Again, please don't tell me that this was ever a serious thought.

So it is down to Chequers/the Backstop agreement which are coherent. It is, as @OblitusSumMe notes, a splitting of the four freedoms, but if it is set in suitably fudgy language I think it is our best chance. If Barnier says no and it's either NI as de facto EU member, or nothing, then it will be nothing. But I think from where we are, and where we want to get to, I'm sure the EU27 will believe it is a start.

Because of course don't forget that FoM will remain although will be called something different as well.

surby · July 2018

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

TOPPING said:
I think we are reaching some sort of an endgame now (ha haha hahahahaha).

But anyway. It is clear that May is presenting the no Irish Sea border as her totemic fight against the EU.

https://theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/19/theresa-may-i-will-never-accept-eus-ideas-on-irish-brexit-border

https://thetimes.co.uk/article/i-wont-compromise-on-ulster-border-says-may-dsvdrzzhz

etc.

As I said late last night, her NI position seems quite coherent. And these headlines are setting up a "victory over Europe" situation.

The backstop document proposed that the whole of the UK would stay in the Customs Union and that there would be no border in the Irish Sea. Her Chequers paper reiterated that and so did Jolyon Maugham's "scoop" quote.

Juncker said that they would examine closely whether the backstop could apply to the whole of the UK and likewise he had been asked again by Chequers.

She is now "challenging" the EU to be flexible. The only way they will do this, IMO, is to accept her plan to allow a common rulebook for the whole of the UK, not just for NI.

This will then be spun as a victory for all concerned.

Does rely on the EU accepting Chequers, extending the alignment to the whole of the UK, that said.
Didn't Barnier rule this out ?
I thought he’d said that the backstop can only apply to NI and not to the UK as a whole, this from the March “Legal text of the December agreement”. Hence the comments about the EU trying to effectively annex NI and force a border in the Irish Sea. Barnier thinks that allowing the backstop to cover the whole of the UK would be “cherry-picking”.

The UK December statement said [ agreed with the DUP ] that in the event of any regulatory alignment between NI and Ireland, it will also apply to Great Britain as well. However, the defeat of the Customs Union amendment has scuppered that anyway.

However, a Trade Bill is coming from the Lords in October which could be amended to put the Customs Union back on [ if passed ].

rottenborough · July 2018

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1020248143252815877

MarqueeMark · July 2018

Recidivist said:

David_Evershed said:
Given that the Lib Dems picked up few additonal votes at the 2017 General Election, it suggests that Remainers don't feel sufficiently strongly about Brexit to sway them to vote Lib Dem.

Whereas Leavers feel sufficiently strongly about Brexit to vote Conservative.

So whilst the country is split 52% Leave 48% Remain, the 52% really care about the issue whilst fewer of the Remainers feel strongly about Brexit.

In the event of another referendum or general election the strength of feeling amongst Leavers could be decisive.
And yet it is the remain side that can get huge numbers out to a demonstration.

Leavers won. They don't need to walk to change the result.....

TOPPING · July 2018

Nigel_Foremain said:

Sean_F said:

Pulpstar said:

TOPPING said:
I think we are reaching some sort of an endgame now (ha haha hahahahaha).

But anyway. It is clear that May is presenting the no Irish Sea border as her totemic fight against the EU.

https://theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/19/theresa-may-i-will-never-accept-eus-ideas-on-irish-brexit-border

https://thetimes.co.uk/article/i-wont-compromise-on-ulster-border-says-may-dsvdrzzhz

etc.

As I said late last night, her NI position seems quite coherent. And these headlines are setting up a "victory over Europe" situation.

The backstop document proposed that the whole of the UK would stay in the Customs Union and that there would be no border in the Irish Sea. Her Chequers paper reiterated that and so did Jolyon Maugham's "scoop" quote.

Juncker said that they would examine closely whether the backstop could apply to the whole of the UK and likewise he had been asked again by Chequers.

She is now "challenging" the EU to be flexible. The only way they will do this, IMO, is to accept her plan to allow a common rulebook for the whole of the UK, not just for NI.

This will then be spun as a victory for all concerned.

Does rely on the EU accepting Chequers, extending the alignment to the whole of the UK, that said.
Didn't Barnier rule this out ?
Which I've never understood. A backstop which saw the whole UK aligned with the EU would surely be an excellent result for the EU.
And what would be an "excellent result" for UK plc.? can someone please tell me? A friend said to me shortly after the referendum result that nothing good will come from it, and that is looking like a pretty good prediction. It is all a pointless farce, unless you are a journalist or a politician, in which case it is a jolly jape, and who cares if lots of people lose their jobs? Price worth paying old bean they might say while privately sipping their vintage Krug.

We are in damage limitation mode here. We have already hit the iceberg, it's a question of how many people we can get on the lifeboats.

grabcocque · July 2018

TOPPING said:

Because of course don't forget that FoM will remain although will be called something different as well.

Mobility Framework
Services Framework
Judiciary Framework
Customs Framework

There is no way this sort of BRINO fudge is getting through parliament. After what happened this week, there's zero chance May even considering bringing something like this to a vote.

So what's the point of the EU even offering it? They can read the parliamentary tea leaves too you know.

surby · July 2018

grabcocque said:

Sean_F said:

But, there are also parts of the country where their support has never been greater, in the post-war period.
That's how it starts, but the toxin spreads.

The *overwhelmingly* negative reaction of Middle Tory England to May's tawdry compromise could be the beginning of rural and suburban England turning against the Tories.

I am quite surprised by the sheer scale of the reaction. She is seen as a Traitor.

TOPPING · July 2018

surby said:

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

TOPPING said:
I think we are reaching some sort of an endgame now (ha haha hahahahaha).

But anyway. It is clear that May is presenting the no Irish Sea border as her totemic fight against the EU.

https://theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/19/theresa-may-i-will-never-accept-eus-ideas-on-irish-brexit-border

https://thetimes.co.uk/article/i-wont-compromise-on-ulster-border-says-may-dsvdrzzhz

etc.

As I said late last night, her NI position seems quite coherent. And these headlines are setting up a "victory over Europe" situation.

The backstop document proposed that the whole of the UK would stay in the Customs Union and that there would be no border in the Irish Sea. Her Chequers paper reiterated that and so did Jolyon Maugham's "scoop" quote.

Juncker said that they would examine closely whether the backstop could apply to the whole of the UK and likewise he had been asked again by Chequers.

She is now "challenging" the EU to be flexible. The only way they will do this, IMO, is to accept her plan to allow a common rulebook for the whole of the UK, not just for NI.

This will then be spun as a victory for all concerned.

Does rely on the EU accepting Chequers, extending the alignment to the whole of the UK, that said.
Didn't Barnier rule this out ?
I thought he’d said that the backstop can only apply to NI and not to the UK as a whole, this from the March “Legal text of the December agreement”. Hence the comments about the EU trying to effectively annex NI and force a border in the Irish Sea. Barnier thinks that allowing the backstop to cover the whole of the UK would be “cherry-picking”.
The UK December statement said [ agreed with the DUP ] that in the event of any regulatory alignment between NI and Ireland, it will also apply to Great Britain as well. However, the defeat of the Customs Union amendment has scuppered that anyway.

However, a Trade Bill is coming from the Lords in October which could be amended to put the Customs Union back on [ if passed ].

Depends if a "common rulebook" is deemed to be a "customs union".

surby · July 2018

rottenborough said:
Sun says 35 letters have gone in (in total, so far).

Why are the ERG frit ?

NickPalmer · July 2018

Some EU Ministerial comments as they prepare to consult with Barnier:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/20/france-minister-nathalie-loiseau-brexit-concessions-theresa-may-commons

grabcocque · July 2018

surby said:

rottenborough said:
Sun says 35 letters have gone in (in total, so far).
Why are the ERG frit ?

Because they done the math and know May would win a VONC.

Sean_F · July 2018

Nigel_Foremain said:

Sean_F said:

Pulpstar said:

TOPPING said:
I think we are reaching some sort of an endgame now (ha haha hahahahaha).

But anyway. It is clear that May is presenting the no Irish Sea border as her totemic fight against the EU.

https://theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/19/theresa-may-i-will-never-accept-eus-ideas-on-irish-brexit-border

https://thetimes.co.uk/article/i-wont-compromise-on-ulster-border-says-may-dsvdrzzhz

etc.

As I said late last night, her NI position seems quite coherent. And these headlines are setting up a "victory over Europe" situation.

The backstop document proposed that the whole of the UK would stay in the Customs Union and that there would be no border in the Irish Sea. Her Chequers paper reiterated that and so did Jolyon Maugham's "scoop" quote.

Juncker said that they would examine closely whether the backstop could apply to the whole of the UK and likewise he had been asked again by Chequers.

She is now "challenging" the EU to be flexible. The only way they will do this, IMO, is to accept her plan to allow a common rulebook for the whole of the UK, not just for NI.

This will then be spun as a victory for all concerned.

Does rely on the EU accepting Chequers, extending the alignment to the whole of the UK, that said.
Didn't Barnier rule this out ?
Which I've never understood. A backstop which saw the whole UK aligned with the EU would surely be an excellent result for the EU.
And what would be an "excellent result" for UK plc.? can someone please tell me? A friend said to me shortly after the referendum result that nothing good will come from it, and that is looking like a pretty good prediction. It is all a pointless farce, unless you are a journalist or a politician, in which case it is a jolly jape, and who cares if lots of people lose their jobs? Price worth paying old bean they might say while privately sipping their vintage Krug.

You need to make up your mind whether Leave voters are (a) hedge fund managers twirling their moustaches and sipping G & T's as they laugh at job losses (b) unemployed inhabitants of Hartlepool (c) pensioners mourning the loss of Empire,

Or alternatively, people who are just as good and bad as you are.

Sandpit · July 2018

DecrepitJohnL said:

Sandpit said:

brendan16 said:

Sandpit said:

currystar said:

Philip_Thompson said:
FPT
another_richard said:

MaxPB said:
Absolutely mega borrowing figures for the government, again. Implies 1.8% YoY growth from my back of the fag packet calculation.
I'd say quite good rather than mega.

But lets remember the OBR's March 2018 borrowing prediction for the year ending March 2018 was £45.2bn compared with actual borrowing of £39.4bn.

The OBR's borrowing predicting of £37.1bn for 2018/19 looks like it could be about £8bn too high as well.
At this rate looks rather like we could actually be on target to reach a budget surplus by 2020 afterall.
Is this another example of this totally incompetent government?
Not a day too soon, then the gargantuan task of paying down the debt can begin in earnest.
It's amazing no one ever really discusses this £53bn annual debt interest figure - 53 times what May gave to NI under the DUP deal every year for decades more. I don't see us ever paying down the debt given rising spending pressures and politics as now.
Indeed so. The government should be shouting from the rooftops that we spend half the annual NHS budget paying the interest on the government's mortgage for spending that’s already happened. The size of the government debt must also be playing on the mind of the MPC, and a significant factor in keeping interest rates on the floor - with the consequent distortions to the investment, pensions and housing markets that are causing so many other political and financial problems.
How much of this annual debt repayment is real and not just funny money transfers from one branch of government to another?

QE is currently £435bn, against £1780bn in actual debt. So, assuming the interest rates are all the same (they’re not) roughly 80% is to actual debts and 20% to QE.

Sean_F · July 2018

grabcocque said:

Sean_F said:

But, there are also parts of the country where their support has never been greater, in the post-war period.
That's how it starts, but the toxin spreads.

The *overwhelmingly* negative reaction of Middle Tory England to May's tawdry compromise could be the beginning of rural and suburban England turning against the Tories.

Possibly. But, this government is not an especially unpopular one, particularly after 8 years in office.

surby · July 2018

rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1020248143252815877

That is sad. But 80% of the Jewish voters vote Tory. What happened 30 years ago is another matter.

Remember in the final leadership ballot in 2010, 100% of the members voted for someone who was a Jew. Only 8 years ago.

I wouldn't mind if Mann, Hoey, Field were expelled anyway. And the other nutter.

grabcocque · July 2018

69% of British voters think Brexit is going badly, who do they think is to blame?

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/07/04/whos-blame-brexit-going-badly/

Imagine thinking Brexit was going well.

rottenborough · July 2018

surby said:

grabcocque said:

Sean_F said:

But, there are also parts of the country where their support has never been greater, in the post-war period.
That's how it starts, but the toxin spreads.

The *overwhelmingly* negative reaction of Middle Tory England to May's tawdry compromise could be the beginning of rural and suburban England turning against the Tories.
I am quite surprised by the sheer scale of the reaction. She is seen as a Traitor.

I can see UKIP hitting 15%, maybe even higher within a year or two. Note the young, alt-right cyber types who have joined recently, who could inject some energy.

Most of the rest of Europe seems to have nationalist, populist party hitting these kinds of numbers and higher.

TOPPING · July 2018

NickPalmer said:
Some EU Ministerial comments as they prepare to consult with Barnier:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/20/france-minister-nathalie-loiseau-brexit-concessions-theresa-may-commons

If the common rulebook request is reframed as a trade agreement then that might cut the knot?

currystar · July 2018

surby said:

rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1020248143252815877
That is sad. But 80% of the Jewish voters vote Tory. What happened 30 years ago is another matter.

Remember in the final leadership ballot in 2010, 100% of the members voted for someone who was a Jew. Only 8 years ago.

I wouldn't mind if Mann, Hoey, Field were expelled anyway. And the other nutter.

We will end up with a very very nasty Labour Party

rottenborough · July 2018

grabcocque said:

surby said:

rottenborough said:
Sun says 35 letters have gone in (in total, so far).
Why are the ERG frit ?
Because they done the math and know May would win a VONC.

which means she would be safe for a year. An excellent position for a leader to be in, given the circumstances. The saner elements of ERG know this.

ralphmalph · July 2018

TOPPING said:

surby said:

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

TOPPING said:
I think we are reaching some sort of an endgame now (ha haha hahahahaha).

But anyway. It is clear that May is presenting the no Irish Sea border as her totemic fight against the EU.

https://theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/19/theresa-may-i-will-never-accept-eus-ideas-on-irish-brexit-border

https://thetimes.co.uk/article/i-wont-compromise-on-ulster-border-says-may-dsvdrzzhz

etc.

As I said late last night, her NI position seems quite coherent. And these headlines are setting up a "victory over Europe" situation.

The backstop document proposed that the whole of the UK would stay in the Customs Union and that there would be no border in the Irish Sea. Her Chequers paper reiterated that and so did Jolyon Maugham's "scoop" quote.

Juncker said that they would examine closely whether the backstop could apply to the whole of the UK and likewise he had been asked again by Chequers.

She is now "challenging" the EU to be flexible. The only way they will do this, IMO, is to accept her plan to allow a common rulebook for the whole of the UK, not just for NI.

This will then be spun as a victory for all concerned.

Does rely on the EU accepting Chequers, extending the alignment to the whole of the UK, that said.
Didn't Barnier rule this out ?
I thought he’d said that the backstop can only apply to NI and not to the UK as a whole, this from the March “Legal text of the December agreement”. Hence the comments about the EU trying to effectively annex NI and force a border in the Irish Sea. Barnier thinks that allowing the backstop to cover the whole of the UK would be “cherry-picking”.
The UK December statement said [ agreed with the DUP ] that in the event of any regulatory alignment between NI and Ireland, it will also apply to Great Britain as well. However, the defeat of the Customs Union amendment has scuppered that anyway.

However, a Trade Bill is coming from the Lords in October which could be amended to put the Customs Union back on [ if passed ].

Depends if a "common rulebook" is deemed to be a "customs union".

I always took "regulatory alignment" to mean membership and I mean membership not access of the single market.

TOPPING · July 2018

ralphmalph said:

TOPPING said:

surby said:

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

TOPPING said:
I think we are reaching some sort of an endgame now (ha haha hahahahaha).

But anyway. It is clear that May is presenting the no Irish Sea border as her totemic fight against the EU.

https://theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/19/theresa-may-i-will-never-accept-eus-ideas-on-irish-brexit-border

https://thetimes.co.uk/article/i-wont-compromise-on-ulster-border-says-may-dsvdrzzhz

etc.

As I said late last night, her NI position seems quite coherent. And these headlines are setting up a "victory over Europe" situation.

The backstop document proposed that the whole of the UK would stay in the Customs Union and that there would be no border in the Irish Sea. Her Chequers paper reiterated that and so did Jolyon Maugham's "scoop" quote.

Juncker said that they would examine closely whether the backstop could apply to the whole of the UK and likewise he had been asked again by Chequers.

She is now "challenging" the EU to be flexible. The only way they will do this, IMO, is to accept her plan to allow a common rulebook for the whole of the UK, not just for NI.

This will then be spun as a victory for all concerned.

Does rely on the EU accepting Chequers, extending the alignment to the whole of the UK, that said.
Didn't Barnier rule this out ?
I thought he’d said that the backstop can only apply to NI and not to the UK as a whole, this from the March “Legal text of the December agreement”. Hence the comments about the EU trying to effectively annex NI and force a border in the Irish Sea. Barnier thinks that allowing the backstop to cover the whole of the UK would be “cherry-picking”.
The UK December statement said [ agreed with the DUP ] that in the event of any regulatory alignment between NI and Ireland, it will also apply to Great Britain as well. However, the defeat of the Customs Union amendment has scuppered that anyway.

However, a Trade Bill is coming from the Lords in October which could be amended to put the Customs Union back on [ if passed ].

Depends if a "common rulebook" is deemed to be a "customs union".
I always took "regulatory alignment" to mean membership and I mean membership not access of the single market.

well if I want to sign an FTA with you it is presumably within my gift to say I agree with everything you say, do and will do on the matter?!

grabcocque · July 2018

TOPPING said:

NickPalmer said:
Some EU Ministerial comments as they prepare to consult with Barnier:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/20/france-minister-nathalie-loiseau-brexit-concessions-theresa-may-commons
If the common rulebook request is reframed as a trade agreement then that might cut the knot?

"Loiseau said that in the light of the white paper, France was unclear whether May’s government “gets it” on the EU’s refusal to haggle over the indivisibility of the four freedoms of the single market – people, capital, goods and services."

That does not to me sound like the EU is getting ready to fold over the four freedoms. That sounds to me like the EU is absolutely unmoved on this issues as it has been since day zero.

surby · July 2018

currystar said:

surby said:

rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1020248143252815877
That is sad. But 80% of the Jewish voters vote Tory. What happened 30 years ago is another matter.

Remember in the final leadership ballot in 2010, 100% of the members voted for someone who was a Jew. Only 8 years ago.

I wouldn't mind if Mann, Hoey, Field were expelled anyway. And the other nutter.
We will end up with a very very nasty Labour Party

I don't think the Labour Party will be much different from what it is today. I don't know how many would resign, 5000 ?

A question: those who deem Labour to be anti-semitic, do they agree with the law changes in Israel which basically make it an apartheid state ?

currystar · July 2018

rottenborough said:

surby said:

grabcocque said:

Sean_F said:

But, there are also parts of the country where their support has never been greater, in the post-war period.
That's how it starts, but the toxin spreads.

The *overwhelmingly* negative reaction of Middle Tory England to May's tawdry compromise could be the beginning of rural and suburban England turning against the Tories.
I am quite surprised by the sheer scale of the reaction. She is seen as a Traitor.
I can see UKIP hitting 15%, maybe even higher within a year or two. Note the young, alt-right cyber types who have joined recently, who could inject some energy.

Most of the rest of Europe seems to have nationalist, populist party hitting these kinds of numbers and higher.

But if there is "no deal" how will UKIP be relevant?

TOPPING · July 2018

grabcocque said:

TOPPING said:

NickPalmer said:
Some EU Ministerial comments as they prepare to consult with Barnier:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/20/france-minister-nathalie-loiseau-brexit-concessions-theresa-may-commons
If the common rulebook request is reframed as a trade agreement then that might cut the knot?
"Loiseau said that in the light of the white paper, France was unclear whether May’s government “gets it” on the EU’s refusal to haggle over the indivisibility of the four freedoms of the single market – people, capital, goods and services."

That does not to me sound like the EU is getting ready to fold over the four freedoms. That sounds to me like the EU is absolutely unmoved on this issues as it has been since day zero.

Yes maybe I'm getting England's chances in the World Cup-itis and my hopes will be cruelly dashed.

anothernick · July 2018

Nigel_Foremain said:

Sean_F said:

Pulpstar said:

TOPPING said:
I think we are reaching some sort of an endgame now (ha haha hahahahaha).

But anyway. It is clear that May is presenting the no Irish Sea border as her totemic fight against the EU.

https://theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/19/theresa-may-i-will-never-accept-eus-ideas-on-irish-brexit-border

https://thetimes.co.uk/article/i-wont-compromise-on-ulster-border-says-may-dsvdrzzhz

etc.

As I said late last night, her NI position seems quite coherent. And these headlines are setting up a "victory over Europe" situation.

The backstop document proposed that the whole of the UK would stay in the Customs Union and that there would be no border in the Irish Sea. Her Chequers paper reiterated that and so did Jolyon Maugham's "scoop" quote.

Juncker said that they would examine closely whether the backstop could apply to the whole of the UK and likewise he had been asked again by Chequers.

She is now "challenging" the EU to be flexible. The only way they will do this, IMO, is to accept her plan to allow a common rulebook for the whole of the UK, not just for NI.

This will then be spun as a victory for all concerned.

Does rely on the EU accepting Chequers, extending the alignment to the whole of the UK, that said.
Didn't Barnier rule this out ?
Which I've never understood. A backstop which saw the whole UK aligned with the EU would surely be an excellent result for the EU.
And what would be an "excellent result" for UK plc.? can someone please tell me? A friend said to me shortly after the referendum result that nothing good will come from it, and that is looking like a pretty good prediction. It is all a pointless farce, unless you are a journalist or a politician, in which case it is a jolly jape, and who cares if lots of people lose their jobs? Price worth paying old bean they might say while privately sipping their vintage Krug.

Your friend was right. Nothing good will come from the referendum. Nothing. It is the biggest act of national self-harm since the Spanish civil war. All of Europe will be diminished economically, socially and politically and the UK will suffer most of all.

ralphmalph · July 2018

TOPPING said:

ralphmalph said:

TOPPING said:

surby said:

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

TOPPING said:
I think we are reaching some sort of an endgame now (ha haha hahahahaha).

But anyway. It is clear that May is presenting the no Irish Sea border as her totemic fight against the EU.

https://theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/19/theresa-may-i-will-never-accept-eus-ideas-on-irish-brexit-border

https://thetimes.co.uk/article/i-wont-compromise-on-ulster-border-says-may-dsvdrzzhz

etc.

This will then be spun as a victory for all concerned.

Does rely on the EU accepting Chequers, extending the alignment to the whole of the UK, that said.
Didn't Barnier rule this out ?
I thought he’d said that the backstop can only apply to NI and not to the UK as a whole, this from the March “Legal text of the December agreement”. Hence the comments about the EU trying to effectively annex NI and force a border in the Irish Sea. Barnier thinks that allowing the backstop to cover the whole of the UK would be “cherry-picking”.
The UK December statement said [ agreed with the DUP ] that in the event of any regulatory alignment between NI and Ireland, it will also apply to Great Britain as well. However, the defeat of the Customs Union amendment has scuppered that anyway.

However, a Trade Bill is coming from the Lords in October which could be amended to put the Customs Union back on [ if passed ].

Depends if a "common rulebook" is deemed to be a "customs union".
I always took "regulatory alignment" to mean membership and I mean membership not access of the single market.
well if I want to sign an FTA with you it is presumably within my gift to say I agree with everything you say, do and will do on the matter?!

Just following the rules or having a common rule book does not get you the main benefit of the single market. The main benefit is the trust between the national regulatory agencies that enable a manufacturer to take their product to one, get it certified so it can be sold in the EU with no challenge by another national agency and hence frictionless borders.
The difference between access and membership. Mays wants the whole shebang hence the EU constantly coming back with 4 freedoms non-divisable.

TOPPING · July 2018

grabcocque said:

TOPPING said:

NickPalmer said:
Some EU Ministerial comments as they prepare to consult with Barnier:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/20/france-minister-nathalie-loiseau-brexit-concessions-theresa-may-commons
If the common rulebook request is reframed as a trade agreement then that might cut the knot?
"Loiseau said that in the light of the white paper, France was unclear whether May’s government “gets it” on the EU’s refusal to haggle over the indivisibility of the four freedoms of the single market – people, capital, goods and services."

That does not to me sound like the EU is getting ready to fold over the four freedoms. That sounds to me like the EU is absolutely unmoved on this issues as it has been since day zero.

But then again, if we were Country X, approaching the EU from scratch for an agreement in trade, they presumably wouldn't come back saying: but you need to allow freedom of movement, etc ,etc?

Sean_F · July 2018

anothernick said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Sean_F said:

Pulpstar said:

TOPPING said:
I think we are reaching some sort of an endgame now (ha haha hahahahaha).

But anyway. It is clear that May is presenting the no Irish Sea border as her totemic fight against the EU.

https://theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/19/theresa-may-i-will-never-accept-eus-ideas-on-irish-brexit-border

https://thetimes.co.uk/article/i-wont-compromise-on-ulster-border-says-may-dsvdrzzhz

etc.

As I said late last night, her NI position seems quite coherent. And these headlines are setting up a "victory over Europe" situation.

The backstop document proposed that the whole of the UK would stay in the Customs Union and that there would be no border in the Irish Sea. Her Chequers paper reiterated that and so did Jolyon Maugham's "scoop" quote.

Juncker said that they would examine closely whether the backstop could apply to the whole of the UK and likewise he had been asked again by Chequers.

She is now "challenging" the EU to be flexible. The only way they will do this, IMO, is to accept her plan to allow a common rulebook for the whole of the UK, not just for NI.

This will then be spun as a victory for all concerned.

Does rely on the EU accepting Chequers, extending the alignment to the whole of the UK, that said.
Didn't Barnier rule this out ?
Which I've never understood. A backstop which saw the whole UK aligned with the EU would surely be an excellent result for the EU.
And what would be an "excellent result" for UK plc.? can someone please tell me? A friend said to me shortly after the referendum result that nothing good will come from it, and that is looking like a pretty good prediction. It is all a pointless farce, unless you are a journalist or a politician, in which case it is a jolly jape, and who cares if lots of people lose their jobs? Price worth paying old bean they might say while privately sipping their vintage Krug.
Your friend was right. Nothing good will come from the referendum. Nothing. It is the biggest act of national self-harm since the Spanish civil war. All of Europe will be diminished economically, socially and politically and the UK will suffer most of all.

"The Spanish Civil War"? A war in which a million people were killed, and a brutal dictatorship came to power?

Get real..

Stereotomy · July 2018

surby said:

currystar said:

surby said:

rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1020248143252815877
That is sad. But 80% of the Jewish voters vote Tory. What happened 30 years ago is another matter.

Remember in the final leadership ballot in 2010, 100% of the members voted for someone who was a Jew. Only 8 years ago.

I wouldn't mind if Mann, Hoey, Field were expelled anyway. And the other nutter.
We will end up with a very very nasty Labour Party
I don't think the Labour Party will be much different from what it is today. I don't know how many would resign, 5000 ?

A question: those who deem Labour to be anti-semitic, do they agree with the law changes in Israel which basically make it an apartheid state ?

Well the question is actually, do you think that disagreeing with those law changes is anti-Semitic

John_M · July 2018

Not forgetting that cheese, milk and yoghurt will become 'occasional luxuries'. Why the IMF didn't include this in their report on the Eurozone this week escapes me.

Sandpit · July 2018

TOPPING said:

grabcocque said:

TOPPING said:

NickPalmer said:
Some EU Ministerial comments as they prepare to consult with Barnier:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/20/france-minister-nathalie-loiseau-brexit-concessions-theresa-may-commons
If the common rulebook request is reframed as a trade agreement then that might cut the knot?
"Loiseau said that in the light of the white paper, France was unclear whether May’s government “gets it” on the EU’s refusal to haggle over the indivisibility of the four freedoms of the single market – people, capital, goods and services."

That does not to me sound like the EU is getting ready to fold over the four freedoms. That sounds to me like the EU is absolutely unmoved on this issues as it has been since day zero.
But then again, if we were Country X, approaching the EU from scratch for an agreement in trade, they presumably wouldn't come back saying: but you need to allow freedom of movement, etc ,etc?

Indeed. Ask Canada, or Japan. Which is why for the best long term deal we need to leave the EU and then start negotiating a trade agreement from the outside.

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