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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At GE2017 six times as many CON voters said Brexit was the dec

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  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think we are reaching some sort of an endgame now (ha haha hahahahaha).
    But anyway. It is clear that May is presenting the no Irish Sea border as her totemic fight against the EU.
    https://theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/19/theresa-may-i-will-never-accept-eus-ideas-on-irish-brexit-border

    https://thetimes.co.uk/article/i-wont-compromise-on-ulster-border-says-may-dsvdrzzhz etc.
    As I said late last night, her NI position seems quite coherent. And these headlines are setting up a "victory over Europe" situation.
    The backstop document proposed that the whole of the UK would stay in the Customs Union and that there would be no border in the Irish Sea. Her Chequers paper reiterated that and so did Jolyon Maugham's "scoop" quote.
    Juncker said that they would examine closely whether the backstop could apply to the whole of the UK and likewise he had been asked again by Chequers.
    She is now "challenging" the EU to be flexible. The only way they will do this, IMO, is to accept her plan to allow a common rulebook for the whole of the UK, not just for NI.
    This will then be spun as a victory for all concerned.
    Does rely on the EU accepting Chequers, extending the alignment to the whole of the UK, that said.

    Didn't Barnier rule this out ?
    Which I've never understood. A backstop which saw the whole UK aligned with the EU would surely be an excellent result for the EU.
    And what would be an "excellent result" for UK plc.? can someone please tell me? A friend said to me shortly after the referendum result that nothing good will come from it, and that is looking like a pretty good prediction. It is all a pointless farce, unless you are a journalist or a politician, in which case it is a jolly jape, and who cares if lots of people lose their jobs? Price worth paying old bean they might say while privately sipping their vintage Krug.
    Your friend was right. Nothing good will come from the referendum. Nothing. It is the biggest act of national self-harm since the Spanish civil war. All of Europe will be diminished economically, socially and politically and the UK will suffer most of all.
    "The Spanish Civil War"? A war in which a million people were killed, and a brutal dictatorship came to power? Get real..
    Do you not see this regime of Mrs May`s as the beginning of a brutal dictatorship?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Sean_F said:




    "The Spanish Civil War"? A war in which a million people were killed, and a brutal dictatorship came to power?

    Get real..

    I said Brexit was the biggest act of national self-harm SINCE the Spanish civil war, which it is.

    I did not say it was a comparable event to the Spanish Civil War, which it Is not.
    So Brexit is a bigger act of national self harm than any of WWII?
    But WW2 was not inflicted by the participants on themselves - in most cases they were forced into it by invasion or threat of invasion. it was, of course, very harmful but most of the participants did not choose out of their own free will to enter the war.
    Germany chose to invade Poland.
    Germany chose to invade Russia.
    Japan chose to attack America.

    All three of those resulted in total disaster for the aggressor ultimately. Millions dead on all sides

    But Brexit is worse?
    we now need a name for Brexit induced insanity

    Remonanism - for those who have wanked themselves beyond rationality

    Can anyone think of one for ultra leavers ?
    It would be more useful to have a term for those Leavers who aren’t completely cream crackers. It is after all a far smaller group than the frothing loonies who comprise most of the Leave advocates.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001
    rkrkrk said:

    The key thing is that the views of the voters haven't changed.
    So what happens if Remain loses a second time?
    Well we've just trashed the compromise that's been put together - so hard Brexit is the only thing left.

    Indeed.
    This time, it's clear and unavoidable what Brexit means. Diamond-hard Brexit, with all that entails.
    The politicians can't agree on a route to take, because whichever tunnel they look down, they see the light of an oncoming train. All compromises see them slaughtered. Staying in sees them slaughtered. Hard Brexit (which will unavoidably have costs and damages, no matter if you're a Leaver or Remainer) would see them slaughtered - the electorate were assured there wouldn't be these costs (by one side; the other overblew their arguments and have since been discounted).

    So all costs and damages will be seen as betrayal. "This wasn't the Brexit we voted for!"

    It's the downside of being as ambiguous as possible in the promising and then actually winning.

    So a vote will either result in a begrudging "all right then, we'll stay in, but I'm unhappy about it" or will have the voters dip their own hands in the blood and vote for out anyway.

    Personally, I think the voters will deny responsibility anyway, even if they do vote on it. For either destination.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,280
    PClipp said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think we are reaching some sort of an endgame now (ha haha hahahahaha).
    But anyway. It is clear that May is presenting the no Irish Sea border as her totemic fight against the EU.
    https://theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/19/theresa-may-i-will-never-accept-eus-ideas-on-irish-brexit-border

    https://thetimes.co.uk/article/i-wont-compromise-on-ulster-border-says-may-dsvdrzzhz etc.
    As I said late last night, her NI position seems quite coherent. And these headlines are setting up a "victory over Europe" situation.
    The backstop document proposed that the whole of the UK would stay in the Customs Union and that there would be no border in the Irish Sea. Her Chequers paper reiterated that and so did Jolyon Maugham's "scoop" quote.
    Juncker said that they would examine closely whether the backstop could apply to the whole of the UK and likewise he had been asked again by Chequers.
    She is now "challenging" the EU to be flexible. The only way they will do this, IMO, is to accept her plan to allow a common rulebook for the whole of the UK, not just for NI.
    This will then be spun as a victory for all concerned.
    Does rely on the EU accepting Chequers, extending the alignment to the whole of the UK, that said.

    Didn't Barnier rule this out ?
    Which I've never understood. A backstop which saw the whole UK aligned with the EU would surely be an excellent result for the EU.
    And what would be an "excellent result" for UK plc.? can someone please tell me? A friend said to me shortly after the referendum result that nothing good will come from it, and that is looking like a pretty good prediction. It is all a pointless farce, unless you are a journalist or a politician, in which case it is a jolly jape, and who cares if lots of people lose their jobs? Price worth paying old bean they might say while privately sipping their vintage Krug.
    Your friend was right. Nothing good will come from the referendum. Nothing. It is the biggest act of national self-harm since the Spanish civil war. All of Europe will be diminished economically, socially and politically and the UK will suffer most of all.
    "The Spanish Civil War"? A war in which a million people were killed, and a brutal dictatorship came to power? Get real..
    Do you not see this regime of Mrs May`s as the beginning of a brutal dictatorship?
    Strangely, not.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,497
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think that if there were a second referendum tomorrow then there would be a (perhaps resounding) victory for Leave.

    You are not telling me that the workers in Sainsbury's in Grantham will have followed, understood, cared, or been bothered about any of the detail to have emerged since the last time. As far as they know they voted for something and want the govt to get an effing move on.

    Those workers in Sainsbury's who voted Remain have followed events with an equal attention to detail and would be irritated that they are being asked to vote again and some might therefore switch their vote.

    The fact that some bien pensant dilettante previous Leave journalist or campaigner has seen the light is neither here nor there.

    The last referendum was a proxy for "Are you happy with the status quo?" The next referendum will be a proxy for "Do you want to hear the word Brexit every day for the next 10 years?"
    And if Remain wins do you think Leavers would just lie down and take it? No, they would be cybernats on steroids
    Yes, I think some of the most vociferous Leavers will become the ones pushing for us to join the Euro. They were dissatisfied with the inherent mediocrity of being half-in, half-out, and will want us to do EU membership properly.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Brexit Derangement Syndrome

    Brexit derangement syndrome is a serious condition that can affect anyone at any time. Somebody you love could be suffering from BRS today.

    Some of the symptoms of Brexit Derangement Syndrome include:

    Excessive frothing
    Having a face made of gammon
    Thinking Jacob Rees-Mogg is a "good chap"
    General confusion that the world is complex
    Anger at foreign people for existing

    Talk to your relatives about Brexit Derangement Syndrome today. If you don't, who will?

    Just watch YouTube of the remain side marches derangement and see when interviewed how bright the remoaners are -it's a laugh I'll give you that.

    One Question was asked to a remain marcher - why do you want to stay in the EU and the answer was "Because of the nhs" lol
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited July 2018


    we now need a name for Brexit induced insanity

    Remonanism - for those who have wanked themselves beyond rationality

    Can anyone think of one for ultra leavers ?

    Swivel-eyed loons?
    Brexiteers?
    Elderly Tory voters?
    ERG-ers?
    You wonder why some posters have strong feelings against you bev.
    No - I don't.

    This place is as bad as the rest of the country, massively polarised.

    I am a remainer who has remained in the UK and I am fed up watching "patriots" run the country into the ground. I live here. My kids live here. My family and friends live here. I have done my bit and contributed to "the system" and done what I could to make the UK a good place to live. A small bit but every little helps.

    Now I sit here and watch ideological nutters stamp on the accelerator and charge for the cliff-edge. There is all sorts of guff about "Short term pain for long term gain" but short-term in the context of national economies often means decades, not months. A whole generation will have to put up with crap because of political laziness and failure to confront the nationalist loons.

    So yes, I am thoroughly annoyed, more than a bit jaded and wondering if coming back to PB was a bad mistake.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,497
    edited July 2018

    Sean_F said:




    "The Spanish Civil War"? A war in which a million people were killed, and a brutal dictatorship came to power?

    Get real..

    I said Brexit was the biggest act of national self-harm SINCE the Spanish civil war, which it is.

    I did not say it was a comparable event to the Spanish Civil War, which it Is not.
    So Brexit is a bigger act of national self harm than any of WWII?
    But WW2 was not inflicted by the participants on themselves - in most cases they were forced into it by invasion or threat of invasion. it was, of course, very harmful but most of the participants did not choose out of their own free will to enter the war.
    Germany chose to invade Poland.
    Germany chose to invade Russia.
    Japan chose to attack America.

    All three of those resulted in total disaster for the aggressor ultimately. Millions dead on all sides

    But Brexit is worse?
    we now need a name for Brexit induced insanity

    Remonanism - for those who have wanked themselves beyond rationality

    Can anyone think of one for ultra leavers ?
    It would be more useful to have a term for those Leavers who aren’t completely cream crackers. It is after all a far smaller group than the frothing loonies who comprise most of the Leave advocates.
    From a thread by a prominent repentant Leaver (further down he's very good on why the EEA solution proved to be an illusion):

    https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1020275210069716997
    https://twitter.com/rolandmcs/status/1020275296463966213
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,926

    TOPPING said:

    I think that if there were a second referendum tomorrow then there would be a (perhaps resounding) victory for Leave.

    You are not telling me that the workers in Sainsbury's in Grantham will have followed, understood, cared, or been bothered about any of the detail to have emerged since the last time. As far as they know they voted for something and want the govt to get an effing move on...

    quite
    That seems to be regarding Leave voters with more or less the same contempt you accuse Remainers of doing so...
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,365

    Sean_F said:




    "The Spanish Civil War"? A war in which a million people were killed, and a brutal dictatorship came to power?

    Get real..

    I said Brexit was the biggest act of national self-harm SINCE the Spanish civil war, which it is.

    I did not say it was a comparable event to the Spanish Civil War, which it Is not.
    So Brexit is a bigger act of national self harm than any of WWII?
    But WW2 was not inflicted by the participants on themselves - in most cases they were forced into it by invasion or threat of invasion. it was, of course, very harmful but most of the participants did not choose out of their own free will to enter the war.
    Germany chose to invade Poland.
    Germany chose to invade Russia.
    Japan chose to attack America.

    All three of those resulted in total disaster for the aggressor ultimately. Millions dead on all sides

    But Brexit is worse?
    we now need a name for Brexit induced insanity

    Remonanism - for those who have wanked themselves beyond rationality

    Can anyone think of one for ultra leavers ?
    It would be more useful to have a term for those Leavers who aren’t completely cream crackers. It is after all a far smaller group than the frothing loonies who comprise most of the Leave advocates.
    How about "the majority of voters " ?

    Most people have accepted we will leave and just don't endlessly bang on about it. It's all about whats important in our life

    July Priorities - Brooke Junior Graduation
    Sorting him out for work in Paris and Edinburgh
    I turned 57 and had a family party weekend
    Married 32 years end of the month

    July non-priorities - stressing endlessly about Brexit

    worry about your house in Essex or the mad paddy you share it with, Brexit is pretty meaningless on the lifeometer
  • What I can never understand is the pretense that Northern Ireland is 'just like the rest of the UK' when anybody who has visited will attest the opposite.

    In what other part of the UK can you legally own a handgun? In what other part are communities segregated by security walls to stop them kicking the sh*t out of each other?

    On top of this the DUP has consistently campaigned to have harmonized corporation tax rates with the rest of Ireland, so they're rank hypocrites aswell.

    Everybody knows Northern Ireland is different, and should be treated as such. May is just terrified to admit it, and the DUP won't let her.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    Sean_F said:

    PClipp said:

    Sean_F said:

    Which I've never understood. A backstop which saw the whole UK aligned with the EU would surely be an excellent result for the EU.

    And what would be an "excellent result" for UK plc.? can someone please tell me? A friend said to me shortly after the referendum result that nothing good will come from it, and that is looking like a pretty good prediction. It is all a pointless farce, unless you are a journalist or a politician, in which case it is a jolly jape, and who cares if lots of people lose their jobs? Price worth paying old bean they might say while privately sipping their vintage Krug.
    Your friend was right. Nothing good will come from the referendum. Nothing. It is the biggest act of national self-harm since the Spanish civil war. All of Europe will be diminished economically, socially and politically and the UK will suffer most of all.
    "The Spanish Civil War"? A war in which a million people were killed, and a brutal dictatorship came to power? Get real..
    Do you not see this regime of Mrs May`s as the beginning of a brutal dictatorship?
    Strangely, not.

    Well, you wouldn`t. The nationalists thought that Franco`s regime was a good thing too.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,676
    edited July 2018

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think that if there were a second referendum tomorrow then there would be a (perhaps resounding) victory for Leave.

    You are not telling me that the workers in Sainsbury's in Grantham will have followed, understood, cared, or been bothered about any of the detail to have emerged since the last time. As far as they know they voted for something and want the govt to get an effing move on.

    Those workers in Sainsbury's who voted Remain have followed events with an equal attention to detail and would be irritated that they are being asked to vote again and some might therefore switch their vote.

    The fact that some bien pensant dilettante previous Leave journalist or campaigner has seen the light is neither here nor there.

    The last referendum was a proxy for "Are you happy with the status quo?" The next referendum will be a proxy for "Do you want to hear the word Brexit every day for the next 10 years?"
    And if Remain wins do you think Leavers would just lie down and take it? No, they would be cybernats on steroids
    Yes, I think some of the most vociferous Leavers will become the ones pushing for us to join the Euro. They were dissatisfied with the inherent mediocrity of being half-in, half-out, and will want us to do EU membership properly.
    Rubbish, if the Euro was a requirement of EU membership for the UK it would have been around 70%+ Leave.

    I for one would have voted Leave rather than the Remain vote I eventually cast
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,842

    Sean_F said:




    "The Spanish Civil War"? A war in which a million people were killed, and a brutal dictatorship came to power?

    Get real..

    I said Brexit was the biggest act of national self-harm SINCE the Spanish civil war, which it is.

    I did not say it was a comparable event to the Spanish Civil War, which it Is not.
    So Brexit is a bigger act of national self harm than any of WWII?
    But WW2 was not inflicted by the participants on themselves - in most cases they were forced into it by invasion or threat of invasion. it was, of course, very harmful but most of the participants did not choose out of their own free will to enter the war.
    Germany chose to invade Poland.
    Germany chose to invade Russia.
    Japan chose to attack America.

    All three of those resulted in total disaster for the aggressor ultimately. Millions dead on all sides

    But Brexit is worse?
    we now need a name for Brexit induced insanity

    Remonanism - for those who have wanked themselves beyond rationality

    Can anyone think of one for ultra leavers ?
    It would be more useful to have a term for those Leavers who aren’t completely cream crackers. It is after all a far smaller group than the frothing loonies who comprise most of the Leave advocates.
    How about "the majority of voters " ?

    Most people have accepted we will leave and just don't endlessly bang on about it. It's all about whats important in our life

    July Priorities - Brooke Junior Graduation
    Sorting him out for work in Paris and Edinburgh
    I turned 57 and had a family party weekend
    Married 32 years end of the month

    July non-priorities - stressing endlessly about Brexit

    worry about your house in Essex or the mad paddy you share it with, Brexit is pretty meaningless on the lifeometer
    Sounds like a fantastic programme of events.

    But. As you did this morning, your coming onto a political chatroom website and positioning yourself as being above chatting about politics because everyone else on the political chatroom website is chatting about politics is not your finest characteristic.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    I thought you were on the record for saying you'll vote Jezza ? Non ?

    Yes, correct.

    I am also on record as saying that I wish I had a better option than that. Voting for Jezza is only marginally better than voting for the current shower.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,497
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think that if there were a second referendum tomorrow then there would be a (perhaps resounding) victory for Leave.

    You are not telling me that the workers in Sainsbury's in Grantham will have followed, understood, cared, or been bothered about any of the detail to have emerged since the last time. As far as they know they voted for something and want the govt to get an effing move on.

    Those workers in Sainsbury's who voted Remain have followed events with an equal attention to detail and would be irritated that they are being asked to vote again and some might therefore switch their vote.

    The fact that some bien pensant dilettante previous Leave journalist or campaigner has seen the light is neither here nor there.

    The last referendum was a proxy for "Are you happy with the status quo?" The next referendum will be a proxy for "Do you want to hear the word Brexit every day for the next 10 years?"
    And if Remain wins do you think Leavers would just lie down and take it? No, they would be cybernats on steroids
    Yes, I think some of the most vociferous Leavers will become the ones pushing for us to join the Euro. They were dissatisfied with the inherent mediocrity of being half-in, half-out, and will want us to do EU membership properly.
    Rubbish, if the Euro was a requirement of EU membership for the UK it would have been 70%+ Leave.

    I for one would have voted Leave rather than the Remain vote I eventually cast
    We're discussing the future, HYUFD, not the past.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Sean_F said:




    "The Spanish Civil War"? A war in which a million people were killed, and a brutal dictatorship came to power?

    Get real..

    I said Brexit was the biggest act of national self-harm SINCE the Spanish civil war, which it is.

    I did not say it was a comparable event to the Spanish Civil War, which it Is not.
    So Brexit is a bigger act of national self harm than any of WWII?
    But WW2 was not inflicted by the participants on themselves - in most cases they were forced into it by invasion or threat of invasion. it was, of course, very harmful but most of the participants did not choose out of their own free will to enter the war.
    Germany chose to invade Poland.
    Germany chose to invade Russia.
    Japan chose to attack America.

    All three of those resulted in total disaster for the aggressor ultimately. Millions dead on all sides

    But Brexit is worse?
    we now need a name for Brexit induced insanity

    Remonanism - for those who have wanked themselves beyond rationality

    Can anyone think of one for ultra leavers ?
    It would be more useful to have a term for those Leavers who aren’t completely cream crackers. It is after all a far smaller group than the frothing loonies who comprise most of the Leave advocates.
    How about "the majority of voters " ?

    Most people have accepted we will leave and just don't endlessly bang on about it. It's all about whats important in our life

    July Priorities - Brooke Junior Graduation
    Sorting him out for work in Paris and Edinburgh
    I turned 57 and had a family party weekend
    Married 32 years end of the month

    July non-priorities - stressing endlessly about Brexit

    worry about your house in Essex or the mad paddy you share it with, Brexit is pretty meaningless on the lifeometer
    Oh I’m long since reconciled to the long term decline of Britain taking place as a result of the Brexit vote. It’s a crying shame but I’m not among the ones worst affected by it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,280
    PClipp said:

    Sean_F said:

    PClipp said:

    Sean_F said:

    Which I've never understood. A backstop which saw the whole UK aligned with the EU would surely be an excellent result for the EU.

    And what would be an "excellent result" for UK plc.? can someone please tell me? A friend said to me shortly after the referendum result that nothing good will come from it, and that is looking like a pretty good prediction. It is all a pointless farce, unless you are a journalist or a politician, in which case it is a jolly jape, and who cares if lots of people lose their jobs? Price worth paying old bean they might say while privately sipping their vintage Krug.
    Your friend was right. Nothing good will come from the referendum. Nothing. It is the biggest act of national self-harm since the Spanish civil war. All of Europe will be diminished economically, socially and politically and the UK will suffer most of all.
    "The Spanish Civil War"? A war in which a million people were killed, and a brutal dictatorship came to power? Get real..
    Do you not see this regime of Mrs May`s as the beginning of a brutal dictatorship?
    Strangely, not.
    Well, you wouldn`t. The nationalists thought that Franco`s regime was a good thing too.

    I can think of a few minor differences between May and Franco:-

    1. She hasn't executed thousands of opponents
    2. She hasn't banned trade unions
    3. She hasn't lead an armed uprising against the government

    4. She doesn't run concentration camps.


    This site has become bizarre today.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,117
    edited July 2018


    we now need a name for Brexit induced insanity

    Remonanism - for those who have wanked themselves beyond rationality

    Can anyone think of one for ultra leavers ?

    Swivel-eyed loons?
    Brexiteers?
    Elderly Tory voters?
    ERG-ers?
    You wonder why some posters have strong feelings against you bev.
    No - I don't.

    This place is as bad as the rest of the country, massively polarised.

    I am a remainer who has remained in the UK and I am fed up watching "patriots" run the country into the ground. I live here. My kids live here. My family and friends live here. I have done my bit and contributed to "the system" and done what I could to make the UK a good place to live. A small bit but every little helps.

    Now I sit here and watch ideological nutters stamp on the accelerator and charge for the cliff-edge. There is all sorts of guff about "Short term pain for long term gain" but short-term in the context of national economies often means decades, not months. A whole generation will have to put up with crap because of political laziness and failure to confront the nationalist loons.

    So yes, I am thoroughly annoyed, more than a bit jaded and wondering if coming back to PB was a bad mistake.
    Outside of London, two generations have had to put up with smug europhiles obsessing about our place in europe.

    Hence Brexit.

    And, to return to an earlier few posts; look at the uptick in Tory vote in e.g. Dorset, in 2017 vs 2015.

    I canvassed many voters who switched Tory because of their admiration for actually following through on the referendum vote.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,365
    edited July 2018
    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:




    "The Spanish Civil War"? A war in which a million people were killed, and a brutal dictatorship came to power?

    Get real..

    I said Brexit was the biggest act of national self-harm SINCE the Spanish civil war, which it is.

    I did not say it was a comparable event to the Spanish Civil War, which it Is not.
    So Brexit is a bigger act of national self harm than any of WWII?
    But WW2 was not inflicted by the participants on themselves - in most cases they were forced into it by invasion or threat of invasion. it was, of course, very harmful but most of the participants did not choose out of their own free will to enter the war.
    Germany chose to invade Poland.
    Germany chose to invade Russia.
    Japan chose to attack America.

    All three of those resulted in total disaster for the aggressor ultimately. Millions dead on all sides

    But Brexit is worse?
    we now need a name for Brexit induced insanity

    Remonanism - for those who have wanked themselves beyond rationality

    Can anyone think of one for ultra leavers ?
    It would be more useful to have a term for those Leavers who aren’t completely cream crackers. It is after all a far smaller group than the frothing loonies who comprise most of the Leave advocates.
    How about "the majority of voters " ?

    Most people have accepted we will leave and just don't endlessly bang on about it. It's all about whats important in our life

    July Priorities - Brooke Junior Graduation
    Sorting him out for work in Paris and Edinburgh
    I turned 57 and had a family party weekend
    Married 32 years end of the month

    July non-priorities - stressing endlessly about Brexit

    worry about your house in Essex or the mad paddy you share it with, Brexit is pretty meaningless on the lifeometer
    Sounds like a fantastic programme of events.

    But. As you did this morning, your coming onto a political chatroom website and positioning yourself as being above chatting about politics because everyone else on the political chatroom website is chatting about politics is not your finest characteristic.
    Well yes and no

    the PB issue is that the ultras have been talking about the same thing for the past 3 years and convincing no one. This is little England writ large.

    I ususally make an attempt to post something from Germany or France to add some variety but the usual suspects still cant get over recent history.


    I think iI why we have seen long time posters drift off.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,275


    we now need a name for Brexit induced insanity

    Remonanism - for those who have wanked themselves beyond rationality

    Can anyone think of one for ultra leavers ?

    Swivel-eyed loons?
    Brexiteers?
    Elderly Tory voters?
    ERG-ers?
    You wonder why some posters have strong feelings against you bev.
    No - I don't.

    This place is as bad as the rest of the country, massively polarised.

    I am a remainer who has remained in the UK and I am fed up watching "patriots" run the country into the ground. I live here. My kids live here. My family and friends live here. I have done my bit and contributed to "the system" and done what I could to make the UK a good place to live. A small bit but every little helps.

    Now I sit here and watch ideological nutters stamp on the accelerator and charge for the cliff-edge. There is all sorts of guff about "Short term pain for long term gain" but short-term in the context of national economies often means decades, not months. A whole generation will have to put up with crap because of political laziness and failure to confront the nationalist loons.

    So yes, I am thoroughly annoyed, more than a bit jaded and wondering if coming back to PB was a bad mistake.
    Also the cretins talking about the short term pain are all molly coddled millionaires sucking at the public teat, free everything and gold plated pensions, they do not need to worry.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think that if there were a second referendum tomorrow then there would be a (perhaps resounding) victory for Leave.

    You are not telling me that the workers in Sainsbury's in Grantham will have followed, understood, cared, or been bothered about any of the detail to have emerged since the last time. As far as they know they voted for something and want the govt to get an effing move on.

    Those workers in Sainsbury's who voted Remain have followed events with an equal attention to detail and would be irritated that they are being asked to vote again and some might therefore switch their vote.

    The fact that some bien pensant dilettante previous Leave journalist or campaigner has seen the light is neither here nor there.

    The last referendum was a proxy for "Are you happy with the status quo?" The next referendum will be a proxy for "Do you want to hear the word Brexit every day for the next 10 years?"
    And if Remain wins do you think most Leavers would just lie down and take it? No, they would be cybernats on steroids
    You can't undo the referendum result. But you can't undo the last two years either. The leavers have had a government committed to their preferred policy and senior politicians who believe in leave running the process. And it all looks set to deliver chaos. If it does, I think there'll be fairly few leavers who want to stand up and associate themselves with it.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,275

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think that if there were a second referendum tomorrow then there would be a (perhaps resounding) victory for Leave.

    You are not telling me that the workers in Sainsbury's in Grantham will have followed, understood, cared, or been bothered about any of the detail to have emerged since the last time. As far as they know they voted for something and want the govt to get an effing move on.

    Those workers in Sainsbury's who voted Remain have followed events with an equal attention to detail and would be irritated that they are being asked to vote again and some might therefore switch their vote.

    The fact that some bien pensant dilettante previous Leave journalist or campaigner has seen the light is neither here nor there.

    The last referendum was a proxy for "Are you happy with the status quo?" The next referendum will be a proxy for "Do you want to hear the word Brexit every day for the next 10 years?"
    And if Remain wins do you think Leavers would just lie down and take it? No, they would be cybernats on steroids
    Yes, I think some of the most vociferous Leavers will become the ones pushing for us to join the Euro. They were dissatisfied with the inherent mediocrity of being half-in, half-out, and will want us to do EU membership properly.
    Rubbish, if the Euro was a requirement of EU membership for the UK it would have been 70%+ Leave.

    I for one would have voted Leave rather than the Remain vote I eventually cast
    We're discussing the future, HYUFD, not the past.
    HYUFD thinks the sun does not set on the empire and Victoria is in the seat
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Mortimer said:

    Outside of London, two generations have had to put up with smug europhiles obsessing about our place in europe.

    What? I never heard Europhiles obsessing about Europe, quite the contrary - the people who obsessed about it where the Tory Eurosceptic wing and UKIP, all Leavers.

    Perhaps if the Europhiles did go on about Europe and some of the progress that it made we might have had no Brexit. Alternatively, if Dave & Co back in 2006 had slung them out of the Tory party we might not even have had a Brexit.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,842

    Well yes and no

    the PB issue is that the ultras have been talking about the same thing for the past 3 years and convincing no one. This is little England writ large.

    I ususally make an attempt to post something from Germany or France to add some variety but the usual suspects still cant get over recent history.


    I think iI why we have seen long time posters drift off.

    Amazingly, and I can't quite believe I'm saying this, but I actually find Brexit absolutely fascinating and am very happy to discuss it on here.

    So sue me.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,519



    So yes, I am thoroughly annoyed, more than a bit jaded and wondering if coming back to PB was a bad mistake.

    There are only about half a dozen people here who are obsessive about it, and I hope you'll skim over them and focus on the rest of us who are pursuing this and other issues in a reasonably amiable way, as per usual. Hope you'll stay!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,842



    So yes, I am thoroughly annoyed, more than a bit jaded and wondering if coming back to PB was a bad mistake.

    There are only about half a dozen people here who are obsessive about it, and I hope you'll skim over them and focus on the rest of us who are pursuing this and other issues in a reasonably amiable way, as per usual. Hope you'll stay!
    skimming over (people who are obsessive about) Brexit is skimming over the most important political issue of our epoch.

    I would be very sad if any valued poster leaves (apart from XXXX and XXXXXX and...) but Brexit's the only game in town!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    I think it is a racing certainty that the Labour Party will come out in favour of another referendum, probably very soon, meaning probably this Autumn.

    http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2018/07/this-theatre-of-absurd-is-making.html

    Rubbish, Thornberry categorically ruled one out yesterday as has Corbyn as they have insisted they must respect the Leave vote which won most Labour seats
    And they will continue to rule it out until they don't.

    Just as they did with customs union membership.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,912


    we now need a name for Brexit induced insanity

    Remonanism - for those who have wanked themselves beyond rationality

    Can anyone think of one for ultra leavers ?

    Swivel-eyed loons?
    Brexiteers?
    Elderly Tory voters?
    ERG-ers?
    'Swivel-eyed loons' is taken by UKIPpers, but I suppose they are a subset of ultra leavers.
    The others are much too polite.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,297



    So yes, I am thoroughly annoyed, more than a bit jaded and wondering if coming back to PB was a bad mistake.

    There are only about half a dozen people here who are obsessive about it, and I hope you'll skim over them and focus on the rest of us who are pursuing this and other issues in a reasonably amiable way, as per usual. Hope you'll stay!
    + 1
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    I thought you were on the record for saying you'll vote Jezza ? Non ?

    Yes, correct.

    I am also on record as saying that I wish I had a better option than that. Voting for Jezza is only marginally better than voting for the current shower.
    Do hope you'll stay Beverley, though I can understand why you might not. I have to hold my nose on occasion, but I've been posting here off and on since 2006, so preserving my now ancient ritual is strangely important to me.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,117

    Mortimer said:

    Outside of London, two generations have had to put up with smug europhiles obsessing about our place in europe.

    What? I never heard Europhiles obsessing about Europe, quite the contrary - the people who obsessed about it where the Tory Eurosceptic wing and UKIP, all Leavers.

    Perhaps if the Europhiles did go on about Europe and some of the progress that it made we might have had no Brexit. Alternatively, if Dave & Co back in 2006 had slung them out of the Tory party we might not even have had a Brexit.
    Eurosceptics make up a vast majority of the Tory membership. Dave himself, ISTR.

    Without Eurosceptics, the Tories would have been unlikely to survive. Without Leavers, they wouldn’t have won a majority in 2015.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,497
    TOPPING said:

    Well yes and no

    the PB issue is that the ultras have been talking about the same thing for the past 3 years and convincing no one. This is little England writ large.

    I ususally make an attempt to post something from Germany or France to add some variety but the usual suspects still cant get over recent history.


    I think iI why we have seen long time posters drift off.

    Amazingly, and I can't quite believe I'm saying this, but I actually find Brexit absolutely fascinating and am very happy to discuss it on here.

    So sue me.
    As @FF43 said, it's the most interesting thing to happen in European politics since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Unfortunately we're right in the middle of it (expat Brexiteers excepted).
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    What I can never understand is the pretense that Northern Ireland is 'just like the rest of the UK' when anybody who has visited will attest the opposite.

    In what other part of the UK can you legally own a handgun? In what other part are communities segregated by security walls to stop them kicking the sh*t out of each other?

    On top of this the DUP has consistently campaigned to have harmonized corporation tax rates with the rest of Ireland, so they're rank hypocrites aswell.

    Everybody knows Northern Ireland is different, and should be treated as such. May is just terrified to admit it, and the DUP won't let her.

    The DUP are who the electorate have gone for in Northern Ireland so we should respect their wishes.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    The key thing is that the views of the voters haven't changed.
    So what happens if Remain loses a second time?
    Well we've just trashed the compromise that's been put together - so hard Brexit is the only thing left.

    The knowledge of the voters has changed so whatever decision we make next time will be more informed, and we will have to accept the consequences of that decision.

    I don't think you can read into the stability of the polls that people's minds haven't changed. It's really striking how excerpts of the 2016 debates already seem like they come from another era.
    I think that's exactly what the stability of the polls shows.
    I don't think the knowledge of voters has increased very much either.

    The fundamental problem I see is that Leave voters were warned of bad consequences and they chose to ignore those warnings, or they think the upsides will be worth it.

    Until the decision is tested, and we have actual experience of how it will go, why would you change your mind on the basis of another batch of warnings?
    Not sure why people are saying that opinions haven't changed - polls suggest that about 5% of voters have Bremorse, which is obviously enough to swing the vote. https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/991714149871816704
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171

    Mortimer said:

    Outside of London, two generations have had to put up with smug europhiles obsessing about our place in europe.

    What? I never heard Europhiles obsessing about Europe, quite the contrary - the people who obsessed about it where the Tory Eurosceptic wing and UKIP, all Leavers.

    Perhaps if the Europhiles did go on about Europe and some of the progress that it made we might have had no Brexit. Alternatively, if Dave & Co back in 2006 had slung them out of the Tory party we might not even have had a Brexit.
    If Blair & Brown had installed some immigration controls in 2004 as other EU countries did then that would certainly have reduced the leave vote.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,365
    TOPPING said:

    Well yes and no

    the PB issue is that the ultras have been talking about the same thing for the past 3 years and convincing no one. This is little England writ large.

    I ususally make an attempt to post something from Germany or France to add some variety but the usual suspects still cant get over recent history.


    I think iI why we have seen long time posters drift off.

    Amazingly, and I can't quite believe I'm saying this, but I actually find Brexit absolutely fascinating and am very happy to discuss it on here.

    So sue me.
    not at all Mr T, you clearly do . But for those of us who dont find it so, we pop in and out in the hope theres something different on the menu occasionally and drift off when it's the same fare as yesterday.

    suum cuique
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Scott_P said:
    So what do you think the EU companies that supply Honda at Swindon are going to do?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Just as the heads of government for EU nations aren't directly negotiating with Britain, they have Barnier as their go between, we should do the same until the Irish issue is resolved.

    May should appoint Arlene Foster to negotiate on the UK's behalf until the backstop issue is resolved. Get Barnier and Foster to hammer out a deal they can both live with and then we can review it and move on.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,280
    Dadge said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    The key thing is that the views of the voters haven't changed.
    So what happens if Remain loses a second time?
    Well we've just trashed the compromise that's been put together - so hard Brexit is the only thing left.

    The knowledge of the voters has changed so whatever decision we make next time will be more informed, and we will have to accept the consequences of that decision.

    I don't think you can read into the stability of the polls that people's minds haven't changed. It's really striking how excerpts of the 2016 debates already seem like they come from another era.
    I think that's exactly what the stability of the polls shows.
    I don't think the knowledge of voters has increased very much either.

    The fundamental problem I see is that Leave voters were warned of bad consequences and they chose to ignore those warnings, or they think the upsides will be worth it.

    Until the decision is tested, and we have actual experience of how it will go, why would you change your mind on the basis of another batch of warnings?
    Not sure why people are saying that opinions haven't changed - polls suggest that about 5% of voters have Bremorse, which is obviously enough to swing the vote. https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/991714149871816704
    But, almost identical to the eve of poll numbers. Still, Remain might well scrape a win, with a second referendum, but I doubt if that would put the issue to bed.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612



    1) As I said with a free trade agreement you need to take for example a car to an EU member country agency and get the approval paperwork so the car can be sold in the EU with the EU compliant badge. With membership you get approval at your national regulator.

    2) with an FTA your goods are still subject to regulatory checks at the border for stuff like packaging, labelling, 1400w motors, class of bananas, etc. With membership no checks at all for compliance.

    3) With and FTA you have to have an importer for your products. Car maker A with subsidiary in the EU places order on FTA country for car, imports with paperwork of compliance, sells to end customer in EU. Memberships means end customer can place order directly on manufacturer.

    4) FTA regs are agreed as equivalent. FTA country reg z is deemed equivalent to EU reg Z. This is for product, H&S and environmental. Member must follow all EU regs.

    Those are the main ones.

    An excellent analysis - and one that shows why membership of the SM is so overrated. (1) is a one off measure, and everyone who wants to sell in the World goes through this. (2) introduces some friction but having got your goods certified you know they will get clearance and we also know that the average time it takes to gain customs clearance is less than an hour. Business can adapt to this. (3) is an administrative matter inconvenience but again is a one time step - set up the importer and the it is done. And (4) is a benefit of a FTA over membership of the SM.

    The SM facilitates trade - nobody disputes this. But really, the benefits are incremental and not game changing. And this is shown in the evidence, that the creation of the SM did not increase growth rates in the EU and that there is no correlation between the export growth to the EU and SM membership.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,365
    Scott_P said:
    their suppliers store them already in their factories

    Robert Harris should stick to writing pulp fiction

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,644
    TOPPING said:

    Sean_F said:






    Get real..

    I said Brexit was the biggest act of national self-harm SINCE the Spanish civil war, which it is.

    I did not say it was a comparable event to the Spanish Civil War, which it Is not.
    So Brexit is a bigger act of national self harm than any of WWII?
    But WW2 was not inflicted by the participants on themselves - in most cases they were forced into it by invasion or threat of invasion. it was, of course, very harmful but most of the participants did not choose out of their own free will to enter the war.
    Germany chose to invade Poland.
    Germany chose to invade Russia.
    Japan chose to attack America.

    All three of those resulted in total disaster for the aggressor ultimately. Millions dead on all sides

    But Brexit is worse?
    we now need a name for Brexit induced insanity

    Remonanism - for those who have wanked themselves beyond rationality

    Can anyone think of one for ultra leavers ?
    It would be more useful to have a term for those Leavers who aren’t completely cream crackers. It is after all a far smaller group than the frothing loonies who comprise most of the Leave advocates.
    How about "the majority of voters " ?

    Most people have accepted we will leave and just don't endlessly bang on about it. It's all about whats important in our life

    July Priorities - Brooke Junior Graduation
    Sorting him out for work in Paris and Edinburgh
    I turned 57 and had a family party weekend
    Married 32 years end of the month

    July non-priorities - stressing endlessly about Brexit

    worry about your house in Essex or the mad paddy you share it with, Brexit is pretty meaningless on the lifeometer
    Sounds like a fantastic programme of events.

    But. As you did this morning, your coming onto a political chatroom website and positioning yourself as being above chatting about politics because everyone else on the political chatroom website is chatting about politics is not your finest characteristic.
    Haha that's about right. I like to think most on here have got a similarly upbeat list of things going on in their real lives as @AlanBrooke (I know I have). But I come on PB for a bit of fun, the chance to debate, argue and yes at times trade insults with people of a different persuasion.

    I can't see too much harm in it - so long as we all appreciate we will make not a blind bit of difference to the eventual outcome.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362



    So yes, I am thoroughly annoyed, more than a bit jaded and wondering if coming back to PB was a bad mistake.

    There are only about half a dozen people here who are obsessive about it, and I hope you'll skim over them and focus on the rest of us who are pursuing this and other issues in a reasonably amiable way, as per usual. Hope you'll stay!
    Reasonable amiable way ? So she can do the insulting and have no comeback ,very fair of you Nick.

    If she wants to run away every time someone questions her post then this site isn't for her.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Outside of London, two generations have had to put up with smug europhiles obsessing about our place in europe.

    What? I never heard Europhiles obsessing about Europe, quite the contrary - the people who obsessed about it where the Tory Eurosceptic wing and UKIP, all Leavers.

    Perhaps if the Europhiles did go on about Europe and some of the progress that it made we might have had no Brexit. Alternatively, if Dave & Co back in 2006 had slung them out of the Tory party we might not even have had a Brexit.
    Eurosceptics make up a vast majority of the Tory membership. Dave himself, ISTR.

    Without Eurosceptics, the Tories would have been unlikely to survive. Without Leavers, they wouldn’t have won a majority in 2015.
    And if Miliband hadn't been so adamanat about us not having a vote on the matter, they also wouldn' have won a majority, I'd suggest.....
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Scott_P said:
    Nissan produce 3 times the cars that Honda do so have you asked yourself the basic question "Why does Nissan not already have the 3rd Largest warehouse on earth?"
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,509

    rkrkrk said:


    Here's Tony Blair on it all:

    twitter.com/InstituteGC/status/1020013890950877184

    The key thing is that the views of the voters haven't changed.
    So what happens if Remain loses a second time?
    Do what many Leavers seem to do - leave. There is Australia, Dubai, LA, France, Italy .... :D
    Welcome back Beverley, good to see you here again.
    (Waves from Dubai) ;)
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    Scott_P said:
    Soooo...the sovereign UK decides that car components that comply with EU standards will get automatic customs clearance at the border.

    What was the problem again?
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Scott_P said:
    Football pitches are two-dimensional.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,644

    Scott_P said:
    their suppliers store them already in their factories

    Robert Harris should stick to writing pulp fiction

    That's a bit harsh. Fatherland, Archangel, The Ghost and Munich, for example, are a cut above pulp fiction.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2018
    currystar said:

    Scott_P said:
    So what do you think the EU companies that supply Honda at Swindon are going to do?
    That's one question, but even as a Spitfire-polishing Brexiteer, the logical answer is for Honda to move its manufacturing out of the UK. I wish I could recall where I saw the analysis (possibly the IFS, I'll dig around), but the regional breakdown of a WTO-based Brexit still forecast healthy long term trend growth (to 2030) of the economy overall, but it was a somewhat different economy in sectoral terms; London and the South East were predicted to do very well out of Brexit, but auto manufacturing? No.
  • currystar said:

    Scott_P said:
    So what do you think the EU companies that supply Honda at Swindon are going to do?
    Supply Suzuki in Esztergom, Hungary?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,365

    Scott_P said:
    Nissan produce 3 times the cars that Honda do so have you asked yourself the basic question "Why does Nissan not already have the 3rd Largest warehouse on earth?"
    It's like trying to explain fire to a goldfish
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Scott_P said:
    Soooo...the sovereign UK decides that car components that comply with EU standards will get automatic customs clearance at the border.

    What was the problem again?
    Don't let common sense and logic get in the way of a good whine.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,497
    John_M said:

    That's one question, but even as a Spitfire-polishing Brexiteer, the logical answer is for Honda to move its manufacturing out of the UK.

    Nevermind, they can all get jobs in call centres to service the booming Indian consumer market.
  • Brexit has sent you all insane.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    John_M said:

    currystar said:

    Scott_P said:
    So what do you think the EU companies that supply Honda at Swindon are going to do?
    That's one question, but even as a Spitfire-polishing Brexiteer, the logical answer is for Honda to move its manufacturing out of the UK. I wish I could recall where I saw the analysis (possibly the IFS, I'll dig around), but the regional breakdown of a WTO-based Brexit still forecast healthy long term trend growth (to 2030) of the economy overall, but it was a somewhat different economy in sectoral terms; London and the South East were predicted to do very well out of Brexit, but auto manufacturing? No.
    The logical answer is that Honda will utilise more mobile warehouses, sometimes called lorries.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    John_M said:

    currystar said:

    Scott_P said:
    So what do you think the EU companies that supply Honda at Swindon are going to do?
    That's one question, but even as a Spitfire-polishing Brexiteer, the logical answer is for Honda to move its manufacturing out of the UK. I wish I could recall where I saw the analysis (possibly the IFS, I'll dig around), but the regional breakdown of a WTO-based Brexit still forecast healthy long term trend growth (to 2030) of the economy overall, but it was a somewhat different economy in sectoral terms; London and the South East were predicted to do very well out of Brexit, but auto manufacturing? No.
    5 years ago how may people predicted that the UK economy would be in the position that it is now. Good old Danny Blanchflower was predicting that we would have 5 million plus unemployed. The vast majority of economic predictions are totally wrong.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    What I can never understand is the pretense that Northern Ireland is 'just like the rest of the UK' when anybody who has visited will attest the opposite.

    In what other part of the UK can you legally own a handgun? In what other part are communities segregated by security walls to stop them kicking the sh*t out of each other?

    On top of this the DUP has consistently campaigned to have harmonized corporation tax rates with the rest of Ireland, so they're rank hypocrites aswell.

    Everybody knows Northern Ireland is different, and should be treated as such. May is just terrified to admit it, and the DUP won't let her.

    The DUP are who the electorate have gone for in Northern Ireland so we should respect their wishes.
    OK, so Scotland gets to stay in the EU. Fair.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    Scott_P said:
    Soooo...the sovereign UK decides that car components that comply with EU standards will get automatic customs clearance at the border.

    What was the problem again?
    Checking shipments to see if they contain car components complying with EU standards? Having to accept product defined by standards we have no control over in a vassaly kind of way?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Freggles said:

    What I can never understand is the pretense that Northern Ireland is 'just like the rest of the UK' when anybody who has visited will attest the opposite.

    In what other part of the UK can you legally own a handgun? In what other part are communities segregated by security walls to stop them kicking the sh*t out of each other?

    On top of this the DUP has consistently campaigned to have harmonized corporation tax rates with the rest of Ireland, so they're rank hypocrites aswell.

    Everybody knows Northern Ireland is different, and should be treated as such. May is just terrified to admit it, and the DUP won't let her.

    The DUP are who the electorate have gone for in Northern Ireland so we should respect their wishes.
    OK, so Scotland gets to stay in the EU. Fair.
    And London.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,644

    What I can never understand is the pretense that Northern Ireland is 'just like the rest of the UK' when anybody who has visited will attest the opposite.

    In what other part of the UK can you legally own a handgun? In what other part are communities segregated by security walls to stop them kicking the sh*t out of each other?

    On top of this the DUP has consistently campaigned to have harmonized corporation tax rates with the rest of Ireland, so they're rank hypocrites aswell.

    Everybody knows Northern Ireland is different, and should be treated as such. May is just terrified to admit it, and the DUP won't let her.

    The DUP are who the electorate have gone for in Northern Ireland so we should respect their wishes.
    Though we shouldn't respect the NI voters' wishes in the EU referendum?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Brexit has sent you all insane.

    +1
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,644

    Freggles said:

    What I can never understand is the pretense that Northern Ireland is 'just like the rest of the UK' when anybody who has visited will attest the opposite.

    In what other part of the UK can you legally own a handgun? In what other part are communities segregated by security walls to stop them kicking the sh*t out of each other?

    On top of this the DUP has consistently campaigned to have harmonized corporation tax rates with the rest of Ireland, so they're rank hypocrites aswell.

    Everybody knows Northern Ireland is different, and should be treated as such. May is just terrified to admit it, and the DUP won't let her.

    The DUP are who the electorate have gone for in Northern Ireland so we should respect their wishes.
    OK, so Scotland gets to stay in the EU. Fair.
    And London.
    And NI (based on the EU Ref)

    London excepted, I predict that's where we will be in 20 years time.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    Polruan said:

    Scott_P said:
    Soooo...the sovereign UK decides that car components that comply with EU standards will get automatic customs clearance at the border.

    What was the problem again?
    Checking shipments to see if they contain car components complying with EU standards? Having to accept product defined by standards we have no control over in a vassaly kind of way?
    We don’t have to check them if we don’t want to. We don’t at the moment.

    Choosing to accept a standard and having one imposed are rather different things....
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,365
    John_M said:

    currystar said:

    Scott_P said:
    So what do you think the EU companies that supply Honda at Swindon are going to do?
    That's one question, but even as a Spitfire-polishing Brexiteer, the logical answer is for Honda to move its manufacturing out of the UK. I wish I could recall where I saw the analysis (possibly the IFS, I'll dig around), but the regional breakdown of a WTO-based Brexit still forecast healthy long term trend growth (to 2030) of the economy overall, but it was a somewhat different economy in sectoral terms; London and the South East were predicted to do very well out of Brexit, but auto manufacturing? No.
    the correct response is to localise production to suppliers. That way you cut lead times, add supply chain flexibility and respect the environment.

  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited July 2018

    What I can never understand is the pretense that Northern Ireland is 'just like the rest of the UK' when anybody who has visited will attest the opposite.

    In what other part of the UK can you legally own a handgun? In what other part are communities segregated by security walls to stop them kicking the sh*t out of each other?

    On top of this the DUP has consistently campaigned to have harmonized corporation tax rates with the rest of Ireland, so they're rank hypocrites aswell.

    Everybody knows Northern Ireland is different, and should be treated as such. May is just terrified to admit it, and the DUP won't let her.

    The DUP are who the electorate have gone for in Northern Ireland so we should respect their wishes.
    Though we shouldn't respect the NI voters' wishes in the EU referendum?
    Nationalists get to remain in the EU, Loyalists leave.

    London, Scotland, Manchester remains. Everywhere else in England leaves.

    Wales leaves, except for Cardiff.

    EU leavers will be tagged with Max Fac GPS ankle bracelets wherever they go in England to make administering this process simple.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Scott_P said:
    Let me get this straight. They take in 33,333 cubic metres of parts every day. The size of a large (40-foot) shipping container is 67 cubic metres. That means they receive 500 containers of parts every day, or one every 3 minutes. If every container takes 15 minutes to unload, how many unloading bays do they need?

    Show your working.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    What I can never understand is the pretense that Northern Ireland is 'just like the rest of the UK' when anybody who has visited will attest the opposite.

    In what other part of the UK can you legally own a handgun? In what other part are communities segregated by security walls to stop them kicking the sh*t out of each other?

    On top of this the DUP has consistently campaigned to have harmonized corporation tax rates with the rest of Ireland, so they're rank hypocrites aswell.

    Everybody knows Northern Ireland is different, and should be treated as such. May is just terrified to admit it, and the DUP won't let her.

    The DUP are who the electorate have gone for in Northern Ireland so we should respect their wishes.
    Though we shouldn't respect the NI voters' wishes in the EU referendum?
    Also the DUP’s power in this situation derives from their absolute number of seats in the Westminster Parliament, not their relative number of seats in NI. There’s no justification for the position that we should treat the DUP as representing the views of NI simply because May’s electoral failure puts them in a position to extract concessions from the government.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,912

    John_M said:

    currystar said:

    Scott_P said:
    So what do you think the EU companies that supply Honda at Swindon are going to do?
    That's one question, but even as a Spitfire-polishing Brexiteer, the logical answer is for Honda to move its manufacturing out of the UK. I wish I could recall where I saw the analysis (possibly the IFS, I'll dig around), but the regional breakdown of a WTO-based Brexit still forecast healthy long term trend growth (to 2030) of the economy overall, but it was a somewhat different economy in sectoral terms; London and the South East were predicted to do very well out of Brexit, but auto manufacturing? No.
    The logical answer is that Honda will utilise more mobile warehouses, sometimes called lorries.
    ... which would get to join the queues at the borders.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    edited July 2018
    It's hard to make a snap judgment on polite, diplomatic, accented English/translated French, but it sounds rather like Barnier has marked TMay's homework "4/10 - try harder" and sent her away to have another go?

    (Although I note he started with some welcomes for stuff like limited ECJ jurisdiction etc etc)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,644

    What I can never understand is the pretense that Northern Ireland is 'just like the rest of the UK' when anybody who has visited will attest the opposite.

    In what other part of the UK can you legally own a handgun? In what other part are communities segregated by security walls to stop them kicking the sh*t out of each other?

    On top of this the DUP has consistently campaigned to have harmonized corporation tax rates with the rest of Ireland, so they're rank hypocrites aswell.

    Everybody knows Northern Ireland is different, and should be treated as such. May is just terrified to admit it, and the DUP won't let her.

    The DUP are who the electorate have gone for in Northern Ireland so we should respect their wishes.
    Though we shouldn't respect the NI voters' wishes in the EU referendum?
    Nationalists get to remain in the EU, Loyalists leave.

    London, Scotland, Manchester remains. Everywhere else in England leaves.

    Wales leaves, except for Cardiff.

    EU leavers will be tagged with Max Fac GPS ankle bracelets wherever they go in England to make administering this process simple.
    Better still, just let individuals choose. For the record I'd like to keep my EU citizenship.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Dadge said:

    Scott_P said:
    Let me get this straight. They take in 33,333 cubic metres of parts every day. The size of a large (40-foot) shipping container is 67 cubic metres. That means they receive 500 containers of parts every day, or one every 3 minutes. If every container takes 15 minutes to unload, how many unloading bays do they need?

    Show your working.
    5. By the time the 6th truck arrives the 1st will have been unloaded and a bay will be vacant.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    It's hard to make a snap judgment on polite, diplomatic, accented English/translated French, but it sounds rather like Barnier has marked TMay's homework "4/10 - try harder" and sent her away to have another go?

    If the EU's strategy is to run down the clock, I think this is what you'd expect him say.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    Brexit has sent you all insane.

    I’m not sure that the assumption you make about some posters’ starting state is accurate.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,644
    Polruan said:

    Dadge said:

    Scott_P said:
    Let me get this straight. They take in 33,333 cubic metres of parts every day. The size of a large (40-foot) shipping container is 67 cubic metres. That means they receive 500 containers of parts every day, or one every 3 minutes. If every container takes 15 minutes to unload, how many unloading bays do they need?

    Show your working.
    5. By the time the 6th truck arrives the 1st will have been unloaded and a bay will be vacant.
    :lol:
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,258
    Dadge said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    The key thing is that the views of the voters haven't changed.
    So what happens if Remain loses a second time?
    Well we've just trashed the compromise that's been put together - so hard Brexit is the only thing left.

    The knowledge of the voters has changed so whatever decision we make next time will be more informed, and we will have to accept the consequences of that decision.

    I don't think you can read into the stability of the polls that people's minds haven't changed. It's really striking how excerpts of the 2016 debates already seem like they come from another era.
    I think that's exactly what the stability of the polls shows.
    I don't think the knowledge of voters has increased very much either.

    The fundamental problem I see is that Leave voters were warned of bad consequences and they chose to ignore those warnings, or they think the upsides will be worth it.

    Until the decision is tested, and we have actual experience of how it will go, why would you change your mind on the basis of another batch of warnings?
    Not sure why people are saying that opinions haven't changed - polls suggest that about 5% of voters have Bremorse, which is obviously enough to swing the vote. https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/991714149871816704
    I think that's pretty margin of error stuff, given that the polls were showing a remain lead before the referendum. When it gets to 60/65/70% for Remain/Rejoin, then it's time for a second referendum.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Polruan said:

    Brexit has sent you all insane.

    I’m not sure that the assumption you make about some posters’ starting state is accurate.
    Brexit is the fertile manure for the green shoots of our insanity.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    Polruan said:

    Scott_P said:
    Soooo...the sovereign UK decides that car components that comply with EU standards will get automatic customs clearance at the border.

    What was the problem again?
    Checking shipments to see if they contain car components complying with EU standards? Having to accept product defined by standards we have no control over in a vassaly kind of way?
    We don’t have to check them if we don’t want to. We don’t at the moment.

    Choosing to accept a standard and having one imposed are rather different things....
    We don’t have standards imposed at the moment. We choose to participate in a union where we play a role in the setting of standards applied by all of the members. Accepting imports unchecked would be the same situation only without having a role in setting standards.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    For those interested, this is the FT article that Robert Harris’s tweet is based on:

    https://www.ft.com/content/8f46b0d4-77b6-11e8-8e67-1e1a0846c475
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    Polruan said:

    Dadge said:

    Scott_P said:
    Let me get this straight. They take in 33,333 cubic metres of parts every day. The size of a large (40-foot) shipping container is 67 cubic metres. That means they receive 500 containers of parts every day, or one every 3 minutes. If every container takes 15 minutes to unload, how many unloading bays do they need?

    Show your working.
    5. By the time the 6th truck arrives the 1st will have been unloaded and a bay will be vacant.
    10 bays would provide enough redundancy I think.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Breathtaking: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44890199

    There really is no beginning to Andrea Leadsom's intellect.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,519
    edited July 2018
    TOPPING said:



    So yes, I am thoroughly annoyed, more than a bit jaded and wondering if coming back to PB was a bad mistake.

    There are only about half a dozen people here who are obsessive about it, and I hope you'll skim over them and focus on the rest of us who are pursuing this and other issues in a reasonably amiable way, as per usual. Hope you'll stay!
    skimming over (people who are obsessive about) Brexit is skimming over the most important political issue of our epoch.

    I would be very sad if any valued poster leaves (apart from XXXX and XXXXXX and...) but Brexit's the only game in town!
    Mmm, but those brackets you inserted are relevant. Of course we should discuss Brexit, but skim over the sort of personal bile which infects a small minority. I've been posting here for almost as long as anyone, and it's always been tedious to read that poster Xywqft thinks psoter Ycwfght is a loon/traitor/idiot etc. - who cares what these unknown people think of each other?

    I'm less bothered if they vent about well-known figures - at least we know who they're talking about, and it does actually matter what May, Corbyn etc. are actually like. But more nuanced comment is always welcome.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,677
    Polruan said:

    Polruan said:

    Scott_P said:
    Soooo...the sovereign UK decides that car components that comply with EU standards will get automatic customs clearance at the border.

    What was the problem again?
    Checking shipments to see if they contain car components complying with EU standards? Having to accept product defined by standards we have no control over in a vassaly kind of way?
    We don’t have to check them if we don’t want to. We don’t at the moment.

    Choosing to accept a standard and having one imposed are rather different things....
    We don’t have standards imposed at the moment. We choose to participate in a union where we play a role in the setting of standards applied by all of the members. Accepting imports unchecked would be the same situation only without having a role in setting standards.
    What happens if the EU suddenly changes a standard in a way we don't find acceptable? Would the barriers have to go up overnight or would we just lump it?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922

    Breathtaking: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44890199

    There really is no beginning to Andrea Leadsom's intellect.

    Isn't that the eu's strategy, to say their deal is final and not budge one inch?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234



    I'm less bothered if they vent about well-known figures - at least we know who they're talking about, and it does actually matter what Mat, Corbyn etc. are actually like. But more nuanced comment is always welcome.

    As somebody who was once upon a time one of the site's most hated commentators, I'm impressed you can take it all in such good humour.

    I guess being an MP teaches you that it's all water off a duck's back.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited July 2018
    rkrkrk said:

    Dadge said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    The key thing is that the views of the voters haven't changed.
    So what happens if Remain loses a second time?
    Well we've just trashed the compromise that's been put together - so hard Brexit is the only thing left.

    The knowledge of the voters has changed so whatever decision we make next time will be more informed, and we will have to accept the consequences of that decision.

    I don't think you can read into the stability of the polls that people's minds haven't changed. It's really striking how excerpts of the 2016 debates already seem like they come from another era.
    I think that's exactly what the stability of the polls shows.
    I don't think the knowledge of voters has increased very much either.

    The fundamental problem I see is that Leave voters were warned of bad consequences and they chose to ignore those warnings, or they think the upsides will be worth it.

    Until the decision is tested, and we have actual experience of how it will go, why would you change your mind on the basis of another batch of warnings?
    Not sure why people are saying that opinions haven't changed - polls suggest that about 5% of voters have Bremorse, which is obviously enough to swing the vote. https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/991714149871816704
    I think that's pretty margin of error stuff, given that the polls were showing a remain lead before the referendum. When it gets to 60/65/70% for Remain/Rejoin, then it's time for a second referendum.
    There’s been a substantial swing. But we don’t know what the real baseline is.

    Like you I’d set the marker for Remain in the 60s before a referendum might be more than a pipe dream of unhappy Remainers.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922

    Polruan said:

    Polruan said:

    Scott_P said:
    Soooo...the sovereign UK decides that car components that comply with EU standards will get automatic customs clearance at the border.

    What was the problem again?
    Checking shipments to see if they contain car components complying with EU standards? Having to accept product defined by standards we have no control over in a vassaly kind of way?
    We don’t have to check them if we don’t want to. We don’t at the moment.

    Choosing to accept a standard and having one imposed are rather different things....
    We don’t have standards imposed at the moment. We choose to participate in a union where we play a role in the setting of standards applied by all of the members. Accepting imports unchecked would be the same situation only without having a role in setting standards.
    What happens if the EU suddenly changes a standard in a way we don't find acceptable? Would the barriers have to go up overnight or would we just lump it?
    Changes like that are rarely made so fast.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,644
    currystar said:
    To be fair GO's original deficit proposals were to have cut much harder than he eventually did such that we were in surplus by 2014-15. Maybe he listened to Blanchflower?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    rkrkrk said:

    Dadge said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    The key thing is that the views of the voters haven't changed.
    So what happens if Remain loses a second time?
    Well we've just trashed the compromise that's been put together - so hard Brexit is the only thing left.

    The knowledge of the voters has changed so whatever decision we make next time will be more informed, and we will have to accept the consequences of that decision.

    I don't think you can read into the stability of the polls that people's minds haven't changed. It's really striking how excerpts of the 2016 debates already seem like they come from another era.
    I think that's exactly what the stability of the polls shows.
    I don't think the knowledge of voters has increased very much either.

    The fundamental problem I see is that Leave voters were warned of bad consequences and they chose to ignore those warnings, or they think the upsides will be worth it.

    Until the decision is tested, and we have actual experience of how it will go, why would you change your mind on the basis of another batch of warnings?
    Not sure why people are saying that opinions haven't changed - polls suggest that about 5% of voters have Bremorse, which is obviously enough to swing the vote. https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/991714149871816704
    I think that's pretty margin of error stuff, given that the polls were showing a remain lead before the referendum. When it gets to 60/65/70% for Remain/Rejoin, then it's time for a second referendum.
    If the polls move that far we would hardly need a second referendum.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    RobD said:


    Isn't that the eu's strategy, to say their deal is final and not budge one inch?

    I mean, the EU are good at negotiating. They're not gonna make an offer with little chance of being accepted. Hence the impasse.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171

    currystar said:
    To be fair GO's original deficit proposals were to have cut much harder than he eventually did such that we were in surplus by 2014-15. Maybe he listened to Blanchflower?
    So public borrowing is at its lowest figure since 2007 and we have full employment. I think the premise of lower public spending creates unemployment is flawed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922

    currystar said:
    To be fair GO's original deficit proposals were to have cut much harder than he eventually did such that we were in surplus by 2014-15. Maybe he listened to Blanchflower?
    Weren't they roughly similar to Darling's plans though?
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    currystar said:
    To be fair GO's original deficit proposals were to have cut much harder than he eventually did such that we were in surplus by 2014-15. Maybe he listened to Blanchflower?
    He listened to Ed Balls, who was laughing at Osborne because he was going to take all the pain of sorting out the finances, be kicked out by the voters and Balls would have loads of money to open the spending taps again.
    Osborne decided that to be elected a second time meant fixing the economy must take twice as long so there would be no money for Eddy to splurge.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922

    RobD said:


    Isn't that the eu's strategy, to say their deal is final and not budge one inch?

    I mean, the EU are good at negotiating. They're not gonna make an offer with little chance of being accepted. Hence the impasse.
    I'm not sure that's true. See their proposal for annexing a part of the UK.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    RobD said:

    Polruan said:

    Polruan said:

    Scott_P said:
    Soooo...the sovereign UK decides that car components that comply with EU standards will get automatic customs clearance at the border.

    What was the problem again?
    Checking shipments to see if they contain car components complying with EU standards? Having to accept product defined by standards we have no control over in a vassaly kind of way?
    We don’t have to check them if we don’t want to. We don’t at the moment.

    Choosing to accept a standard and having one imposed are rather different things....
    We don’t have standards imposed at the moment. We choose to participate in a union where we play a role in the setting of standards applied by all of the members. Accepting imports unchecked would be the same situation only without having a role in setting standards.
    What happens if the EU suddenly changes a standard in a way we don't find acceptable? Would the barriers have to go up overnight or would we just lump it?
    Changes like that are rarely made so fast.
    We can change a standard if it is our best interests. We can change a standard and allow a long period for this to take effect. We can even agree to accept two or more standards if it suits us. That is what being sovereign is all about.

    The point is that there will be no delays to inbound supply chains if we decide that we don’t want any delays.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    RobD said:

    RobD said:


    Isn't that the eu's strategy, to say their deal is final and not budge one inch?

    I mean, the EU are good at negotiating. They're not gonna make an offer with little chance of being accepted. Hence the impasse.
    I'm not sure that's true. See their proposal for annexing a part of the UK.
    But it was accepted. May accepted it last December. I'm sure the fact that May has welched on one of the few things that has been agreed will definitely not go unnoticed.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    What I can never understand is the pretense that Northern Ireland is 'just like the rest of the UK' when anybody who has visited will attest the opposite.

    In what other part of the UK can you legally own a handgun? In what other part are communities segregated by security walls to stop them kicking the sh*t out of each other?

    On top of this the DUP has consistently campaigned to have harmonized corporation tax rates with the rest of Ireland, so they're rank hypocrites aswell.

    Everybody knows Northern Ireland is different, and should be treated as such. May is just terrified to admit it, and the DUP won't let her.

    The DUP are who the electorate have gone for in Northern Ireland so we should respect their wishes.
    Though we shouldn't respect the NI voters' wishes in the EU referendum?
    Nationalists get to remain in the EU, Loyalists leave.

    London, Scotland, Manchester remains. Everywhere else in England leaves.

    Wales leaves, except for Cardiff.

    EU leavers will be tagged with Max Fac GPS ankle bracelets wherever they go in England to make administering this process simple.
    So you want the remain side to be the modern Nazi's,those people liked marking out a certain group.
This discussion has been closed.