politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rees-Mogg moves back into the favourite slot for next CON lead
Comments
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Yup, Boris and Davis are shits.kle4 said:
Question is would she have been able to sell it at least a little better had Davis and Boris not flounced out?TheScreamingEagles said:
They've made no deal even more likely.0 -
Do you seriously think there was any Brexit outcome that would not seriously annoy a large chunk of the Tory membership and/or have big consequences? If the deal is ok in practice the Tories have a chance the longer til the next election. If it isn't ok in practice they will have no chance.Pulpstar said:
Look at what May's done. We're heading for PM Corbyn with that blimmin Chequers deal.TheScreamingEagles said:
But either way I don't see a way they escaped losing support in polls once they actually tried to decide something. Frankly, I think plenty of people didn't understand how the Tories were having consistent if slim leads in the last few months.0 -
Nigel Farage has opined from Bermuda.Sandpit said:
And has anyone from UKIP even been in the media this week?AlastairMeeks said:Quite impressive brand recognition for UKIP given most people couldn’t name its leader still less pick him out of an identity parade.
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They’ve also made no Brexit imaginable for the first time since the referendum.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, Boris and Davis are shits.kle4 said:
Question is would she have been able to sell it at least a little better had Davis and Boris not flounced out?TheScreamingEagles said:
They've made no deal even more likely.0 -
Corbyn is Leader of the Opposition, not Leader of the Masterly Inactivity. It would be nice if he did his job.NickPalmer said:
How do you mean, "continue to vote against the deal"? There haven't been any votes on the non-existent deal. The Labour strategy is basically masterly inactivity during the negotiations, since adopting any position in the current mess gets most people against you. We're not the government and we don't need to solve the problem. Corbyn's higher rating on Brexit than May reflects dissatisfaction with May more than anything else.Sandpit said:
There’s a huge dilemma coming up for Labour. For how long to they continue to vote against the deal, whatever it may be, knowing that the absence of a deal leads to a crash out on 30th March?surby said:May will stay on now unless the government itself falls for the same reasons as in June 2017. There is no one else at the moment.
The government could go when this white paper is brought before Parliament [ assuming it is untouched by the EU - very unlikely ] as Labour will not be supporting it and neither will the ERG.
I think, though, that we will call lfor a new referendum once the deal is finally apparent.0 -
I expect that's part of it, but on the other hand she needed to make a decision, and she would probably have lost some support either way.JRM and co want no deal for instance, if May adopted that as policy I think the Tories would be in the mid30s as well.Danny565 said:
Summary: Mrs May has made a right pig's ear of things.Danny565 said:Labour opens up biggest lead over Tories since general election
The latest Opinium poll for the Observer puts Labour on 40%, the same score as last month, but four points ahead of the Tories who have dropped by six points since early June to 36%. The fall in Tory support would appear to be the result of Conservative supporters who backed leaving the EU turning to Ukip, whose support has shot up by 5pts from 3% last month to 8%.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/14/labour-opens-up-biggest-lead-over-tories-since-general-election0 -
On tonight's poll it is either hard Brexit by the next general election or Corbyn as PM. Pick your preferred poison!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thank you for your reply but you have completely ignored my question on markets crashing and turmoil.HYUFD said:
May's Brexit provided it does really end FOM would be fine assuming the EU accepts it, though you have to accept the Tories now narrowly trail Labour as some Tory Leavers have defected to UKIP.Big_G_NorthWales said:
But like all his group they have not told us how they would manage or remain or unless someone can provide a thought through and coherrent path through a hard borderYorkcity said:
I can understand why the Conservative members like him.GIN1138 said:
Yeah and what you need to think is where JRM's numbers go if he/when he says he's not standing and endorses Boris - Despite what people think I genuinely think JRM is serious when he says he doesn't want to be leader and an MP can't become PM from the backbenches.HYUFD said:The reason Mogg is back as favourite is last weekend's Tory members YouGov poll which had Mogg beating all rival Tory leadership contenders. Javid beat all rivals bar Mogg (and Davidson who he tied) and hence is second and Gove beat all rivals bar Javid, Mogg and Davidson hence he is third as Davidson is not an MP. So if Mogg does not succeed May it will likely be as the MPs keep him out of the final two, though he may not stand anyway but back Boris instead.
Boris beat Hunt, Williamson and Mordaunt but as it was taken pre his resignation over Chequers and Gove's decision to back May's deal I expect Boris would now beat Gove.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/07/09/leave-voting-conservative-party-members-are-starti/
He always seems very principled and polite and very clear in his views, especially over Brexit.
Most likely though the EU will not accept it as far as a FTA agrees, at least not immediately but only as allowing the transition period to commence next April during which FTA talks will continue.
The problem then comes if a FTA has not been agreed by December 2020 and the EU has no incentive to do so will Tory members and MPs be happy for the transition period to continue into 2022 and the next general election? If so UKIP will certainly be pushing hard on their Brexiteer flank
Until someone gives me an answer hard Brexit is off my agenda
To be fair if you do not know the answer, with respect, that is consistent with all Brexiteers0 -
An In/Out referendum or Deal/No Deal referendum?NickPalmer said:
How do you mean, "continue to vote against the deal"? There haven't been any votes on the non-existent deal. The Labour strategy is basically masterly inactivity during the negotiations, since adopting any position in the current mess gets most people against you. We're not the government and we don't need to solve the problem. Corbyn's higher rating on Brexit than May reflects dissatisfaction with May more than anything else.Sandpit said:
There’s a huge dilemma coming up for Labour. For how long to they continue to vote against the deal, whatever it may be, knowing that the absence of a deal leads to a crash out on 30th March?surby said:May will stay on now unless the government itself falls for the same reasons as in June 2017. There is no one else at the moment.
The government could go when this white paper is brought before Parliament [ assuming it is untouched by the EU - very unlikely ] as Labour will not be supporting it and neither will the ERG.
I think, though, that we will call lfor a new referendum once the deal is finally apparent.
It would be a daft move from Labour either way; it would piss off Leave voters (who are essential to Labour even maintaining 2017 support, let alone building on it) no end.0 -
Quite. They had say on the fence long enough.kle4 said:
I expect that's part of it, but on the other hand she needed to make a decision, and she would probably have lost some support either way.JRM and co want no deal for instance, if May adopted that as policy I think the Tories would be in the mid30s as well.Danny565 said:
Summary: Mrs May has made a right pig's ear of things.Danny565 said:Labour opens up biggest lead over Tories since general election
The latest Opinium poll for the Observer puts Labour on 40%, the same score as last month, but four points ahead of the Tories who have dropped by six points since early June to 36%. The fall in Tory support would appear to be the result of Conservative supporters who backed leaving the EU turning to Ukip, whose support has shot up by 5pts from 3% last month to 8%.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/14/labour-opens-up-biggest-lead-over-tories-since-general-election0 -
If this is as bad as it gets, she's had good week, given that she was bound to disappoint somebody. If.Yorkcity said:TheScreamingEagles said:May’s leadership ratings have also nosedived, while those of Jeremy Corbyn have remained stable. May’s net approval rating – when the number of people who disapprove of the way she is leading the country is subtracted from the number who approve – has tumbled from -8% in June to -24% over a turbulent political period of just five weeks.
She is now well behind Corbyn who is on -12%, little changed from -13% last month.
Overall the poll findings suggest that the turmoil in government caused by Brexit, which led last week to the resignations of foreign secretary Boris Johnson and Brexit secretary David Davis, is having a more significant effect on how the public view the different political parties and their willingness to support them, than has been the case so far. About 51% of people now think Brexit is one of the most important issues facing the country – the highest percentage recorded so far by Opinium – and up markedly from 42% last month.
May now has the lowest approval rating specifically on her handling of Brexit since Opinium starting polling on the issue. Just 25% currently approve of the way she is handling Brexit, down from 30% last month, while 56% disapprove, up from 45% last month.
I thought May had a good week , well from my perspective.TheScreamingEagles said:May’s leadership ratings have also nosedived, while those of Jeremy Corbyn have remained stable. May’s net approval rating – when the number of people who disapprove of the way she is leading the country is subtracted from the number who approve – has tumbled from -8% in June to -24% over a turbulent political period of just five weeks.
She is now well behind Corbyn who is on -12%, little changed from -13% last month.
Overall the poll findings suggest that the turmoil in government caused by Brexit, which led last week to the resignations of foreign secretary Boris Johnson and Brexit secretary David Davis, is having a more significant effect on how the public view the different political parties and their willingness to support them, than has been the case so far. About 51% of people now think Brexit is one of the most important issues facing the country – the highest percentage recorded so far by Opinium – and up markedly from 42% last month.
May now has the lowest approval rating specifically on her handling of Brexit since Opinium starting polling on the issue. Just 25% currently approve of the way she is handling Brexit, down from 30% last month, while 56% disapprove, up from 45% last month.
Obviously not .0 -
I thought he as nearly bankrupt? Has he had a sudden influx of funds?AlastairMeeks said:
Nigel Farage has opined from Bermuda.Sandpit said:
And has anyone from UKIP even been in the media this week?AlastairMeeks said:Quite impressive brand recognition for UKIP given most people couldn’t name its leader still less pick him out of an identity parade.
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It would be nice, but I guess is is ok for Nick to be very cynical about such things? I can see the partisan reasons for adopting no coherent position as 'we don't need to solve the problem', it is working, but it does rather fly in the face of anyone who might suggest Labour are a government in waiting and/or who think Labour should be much clearer on the most important issue in british politics at the moment, rather than inactivity, masterful or otherwise.Jonathan said:
Corbyn is Leader of the Opposition, not Leader of the Masterly Inactivity. It would be nice if he did his job.NickPalmer said:
How do you mean, "continue to vote against the deal"? There haven't been any votes on the non-existent deal. The Labour strategy is basically masterly inactivity during the negotiations, since adopting any position in the current mess gets most people against you. We're not the government and we don't need to solve the problem. Corbyn's higher rating on Brexit than May reflects dissatisfaction with May more than anything else.Sandpit said:
There’s a huge dilemma coming up for Labour. For how long to they continue to vote against the deal, whatever it may be, knowing that the absence of a deal leads to a crash out on 30th March?surby said:May will stay on now unless the government itself falls for the same reasons as in June 2017. There is no one else at the moment.
The government could go when this white paper is brought before Parliament [ assuming it is untouched by the EU - very unlikely ] as Labour will not be supporting it and neither will the ERG.
I think, though, that we will call lfor a new referendum once the deal is finally apparent.
As it is Corbyn is clearly going to adopt the same strategy as JRM and Boris - nothing useful, but claim afterward they would have done it much better.0 -
My preferred option has always been a Canada deal but the EU is faffing around on Ireland etc and even the Canada EU deal took 7 years to negotiate which will take us past the next general election.surby said:
The problem you [ HYUFD ] have is that you stubbornly believe the UK has some upper hand in the negotiations. The EU will not allow the dismemberment of the Internal Market [ no FoM, no Services ] just to placate the UK.HYUFD said:
May's Brexit provided it does really end FOM would be fine assuming the EU accepts it, though you have to accept the Tories now narrowly trail Labour as some Tory Leavers have defected to UKIP.Big_G_NorthWales said:
But like all his group they have not told us how they would manage a hard Brexit.Yorkcity said:
I can understand why the Conservative members like him.GIN1138 said:
Yeah and what you need to think is where JRM's numbers go if he/when he says he's not standing and endorses Boris - Despite what people think I genuinely think JRM is serious when he says he doesn't want to be leader and an MP can't become PM from the backbenches.HYUFD said:.
Boris beat Hunt, Williamson and Mordaunt but as it was taken pre his resignation over Chequers and Gove's decision to back May's deal I expect Boris would now beat Gove.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/07/09/leave-voting-conservative-party-members-are-starti/
He always seems very principled and polite and very clear in his views, especially over Brexit.
I posed the question to HYFUFD on the last thread.
How do the ERG stop planes being grounded, hard border
Most likely though the EU will not accept it as far as a FTA agrees, at least not immediately but only as allowing the transition period to commence next April during which FTA talks will continue.
The problem then comes if a FTA has not been agreed by December 2020 and the EU has no incentive to do so will Tory members and MPs be happy for the transition period to continue into 2022 and the next general election? If so UKIP will certainly be pushing hard on their Brexiteer flank
A Canada is possible or a Norway but I am not sure of a Switzerland anymore.
The only vote that could pass through Parliament is "a" Customs Union. It still abides by the referendum. Whether the Tory party survives in its present form is another matter.
Of course if the EU offered some concession to reflect the fact of the transition controls we were entitled to under EU rules in 2004 but Blair refused to take them much of this could have been avoided0 -
That depends on perspective. Making a decision was bound to be unpopular with plenty. Is this even more unpopular than they thought it might be? Probably. I'd guess that's why Boris jumped ship even later than Davis.Yorkcity said:
I thought May had a good week , well from my perspective.
Obviously not .
But I'd still assume the strategy is to plow ahead, ensure enough MPs to get to a deal, hold off an election (and referendum if they can help it) and give a new leader as much time as possible to lure wavering harder leavers back. And that strategy would include knowing that a period of small to middling Labour leads was probably likely. Let us not forget Labour were consistently ahead for quite some time already.0 -
No as when May looked like pushing hard Brexit the Tories were on 40%+, most Remainers who were going to defect defected in June 2017.kle4 said:
I expect that's part of it, but on the other hand she needed to make a decision, and she would probably have lost some support either way.JRM and co want no deal for instance, if May adopted that as policy I think the Tories would be in the mid30s as well.Danny565 said:
Summary: Mrs May has made a right pig's ear of things.Danny565 said:Labour opens up biggest lead over Tories since general election
The latest Opinium poll for the Observer puts Labour on 40%, the same score % last month to 8%.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/14/labour-opens-up-biggest-lead-over-tories-since-general-election
It is now May is pushing soft Brexit the Tories have fallen to mid 30s as some Tory Leavers have defected to UKIP0 -
Wow, seriously?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
When are you going to rejoin UKIP ?Sean_F said:
If this is as bad as it gets, she's had good week, given that she was bound to disappoint somebody. If.Yorkcity said:TheScreamingEagles said:May’s leadership ratings have also nosedived, while those of Jeremy Corbyn have remained stable. May’s net approval rating – when the number of people who disapprove of the way she is leading the country is subtracted from the number who approve – has tumbled from -8% in June to -24% over a turbulent political period of just five weeks.
She is now well behind Corbyn who is on -12%, little changed from -13% last month.
Overall the poll findings suggest that the turmoil in government caused by Brexit, which led last week to the resignations of foreign secretary Boris Johnson and Brexit secretary David Davis, is having a more significant effect on how the public view the different political parties and their willingness to support them, than has been the case so far. About 51% of people now think Brexit is one of the most important issues facing the country – the highest percentage recorded so far by Opinium – and up markedly from 42% last month.
May now has the lowest approval rating specifically on her handling of Brexit since Opinium starting polling on the issue. Just 25% currently approve of the way she is handling Brexit, down from 30% last month, while 56% disapprove, up from 45% last month.
I thought May had a good week , well from my perspective.TheScreamingEagles said:May’s leadership ratings have also nosedived, while those of Jeremy Corbyn have remained stable. May’s net approval rating – when the number of people who disapprove of the way she is leading the country is subtracted from the number who approve – has tumbled from -8% in June to -24% over a turbulent political period of just five weeks.
She is now well behind Corbyn who is on -12%, little changed from -13% last month.
Overall the poll findings suggest that the turmoil in government caused by Brexit, which led last week to the resignations of foreign secretary Boris Johnson and Brexit secretary David Davis, is having a more significant effect on how the public view the different political parties and their willingness to support them, than has been the case so far. About 51% of people now think Brexit is one of the most important issues facing the country – the highest percentage recorded so far by Opinium – and up markedly from 42% last month.
May now has the lowest approval rating specifically on her handling of Brexit since Opinium starting polling on the issue. Just 25% currently approve of the way she is handling Brexit, down from 30% last month, while 56% disapprove, up from 45% last month.
Obviously not .0 -
If Mary had gone full Trump on Merkel and Barnier she’d be +6 not neg 6.Pulpstar said:
Look at what May's done. We're heading for PM Corbyn with that blimmin Chequers deal.TheScreamingEagles said:
She’s learned nothing and deserves what is coming.0 -
YupRobD said:
Wow, seriously?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
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No, because you are ignoring that the government very obviously had no actual strategy until Chequers, since for months they have been kicking the can down the road, coming up with fudged wording to keep leavers and remainers on side until the point of no return came. Once it came and a side could no longer pretend they had a chance under May, there was an impact.HYUFD said:
No as when May looked like pushing hard Brexit the Tories were on 40%+, most Remainers who were going to defect defected in June 2017.kle4 said:
I expect that's part of it, but on the other hand she needed to make a decision, and she would probably have lost some support either way.JRM and co want no deal for instance, if May adopted that as policy I think the Tories would be in the mid30s as well.Danny565 said:
Summary: Mrs May has made a right pig's ear of things.Danny565 said:Labour opens up biggest lead over Tories since general election
The latest Opinium poll for the Observer puts Labour on 40%, the same score % last month to 8%.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/14/labour-opens-up-biggest-lead-over-tories-since-general-election
It makes no sense to suggest the government had a coherent, clear direction in the months of this year in which the Tories were in the lead. They demonstrably did not, hence all the bickering over amendments and the like.
And if you are right and a hard leave (which for JRM is clearly no deal, since they've waited too long) is so bloody popular with the Tory membership (I don't doubt it is more popular to an extent), then there is no excuse for them not to have had a leadership contest in order to stop May now.
So if we do not get a leadership challenge imminently, the only plausible explanation is that no matter how popular you say hard leave is for the tory poll numbers, the MPs pushing it don't actually believe what they are saying.0 -
Perhaps Corbyn is going to invite the bombers round for tea in Parliament?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Correction to the Opinium poll
Con 36 (-6)
Lab 40 (nc)
LD 8 (+1)
UKIP 8 (+5)
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Doesn't sound very believable.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I doubt if I shall. I'm don't favour No Deal Brexit, and I dislike Tommy Robinson.surby said:
When are you going to rejoin UKIP ?Sean_F said:
If this is as bad as it gets, she's had good week, given that she was bound to disappoint somebody. If.Yorkcity said:TheScreamingEagles said:May’s leadership ratings have also nosedived, while those of Jeremy Corbyn have remained stable. May’s net approval rating – when the number of people who disapprove of the way she is leading the country is subtracted from the number who approve – has tumbled from -8% in June to -24% over a turbulent political period of just five weeks.
She is now well behind Corbyn who is on -12%, little changed from -13% last month.
Overall the poll findings suggest that the turmoil in government caused by Brexit, which led last week to the resignations of foreign secretary Boris Johnson and Brexit secretary David Davis, is having a more significant effect on how the public view the
May now has the lowest approval rating specifically on her handling of Brexit since Opinium starting polling on the issue. Just 25% currently approve of the way she is handling Brexit, down from 30% last month, while 56% disapprove, up from 45% last month.
I thought May had a good week , well from my perspective.TheScreamingEagles said:May’s leadership ratings have also nosedived, while those of Jeremy Corbyn have remained stable. May’s net approval rating – when the number of people who disapprove of the way she is leading the country is subtracted from the number who approve – has tumbled from -8% in June to -24% over a turbulent political period of just five weeks.
She is now well behind Corbyn who is on -12%, little changed from -13% last month.
Overall the poll findings suggest that the turmoil in government caused by Brexit, which led last week to the resignations of foreign secretary Boris Johnson and Brexit secretary David Davis, is having a more significant effect on how the public view the different political parties and their willingness to support them, than has been the case so far. About 51% of people now think Brexit is one of the most important issues facing the country – the highest percentage recorded so far by Opinium – and up markedly from 42% last month.
May now has the lowest approval rating specifically on her handling of Brexit since Opinium starting polling on the issue. Just 25% currently approve of the way she is handling Brexit, down from 30% last month, while 56% disapprove, up from 45% last month.
Obviously not .0 -
Looks even worse, oh Theresa what have you done ?TheScreamingEagles said:Correction to the Opinium poll
Con 36 (-6)
Lab 40 (nc)
LD 8 (+1)
UKIP 8 (+5)0 -
Those are not the only options. Poll numbers do not a government make. If the MPs can still be corralled (which is admittedly not a guarantee) May's deal is possible if the EU play ball (also no guarantee). Corbyn as PM may or may not come in 2022 as part of that, but if you think it impossible that could happen anyway after 12 years of the Tories being in office you are overestimating how offputting Corbyn is.HYUFD said:
On tonight's poll it is either hard Brexit by the next general election or Corbyn as PM. Pick your preferred poison!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Thank you for your reply but you have completely ignored my question on markets crashing and turmoil.HYUFD said:
May's BrelankBig_G_NorthWales said:
But like all his group they have not told us how they would manage or remain or unless someone can provide a thought through and coherrent path through a hard borderYorkcity said:
I can understand why the Conservative members like him.GIN1138 said:
Yeah and what you need to think is where JRM's numbers go if he/when he says he's not standing and endorses Boris - Despite what people think I genuinely think JRM is serious when he says he doesn't want to be leader and an MP can't become PM from the backbenches.HYUFD said:The reason Mogg is back as favourite is last weekend's Tory members YouGov poll which had Mogg beating all rival Tory leadership contenders. Javid beat all rivals bar Mogg (and Davidson who he tied) and hence is second and Gove beat all rivals bar Javid, Mogg and Davidson hence he is third as Davidson is not an MP. So if Mogg does not succeed May it will likely be as the MPs keep him out of the final two, though he may not stand anyway but back Boris instead.
Boris beat Hunt, Williamson and Mordaunt but as it was taken pre his resignation over Chequers and Gove's decision to back May's deal I expect Boris would now beat Gove.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/07/09/leave-voting-conservative-party-members-are-starti/
He always seems very principled and polite and very clear in his views, especially over Brexit.
Until someone gives me an answer hard Brexit is off my agenda
To be fair if you do not know the answer, with respect, that is consistent with all Brexiteers
Nor does a no deal Brexit ensure the Tories win. It may well be more popular than a soft deal, but we know just from on here some people who voted Tory will not do so if no deal is the approach.0 -
Does Jezza support the republican killer who was attacked or the the republican killers who did the attacking ?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
What could she do?Pulpstar said:
Looks even worse, oh Theresa what have you done ?TheScreamingEagles said:Correction to the Opinium poll
Con 36 (-6)
Lab 40 (nc)
LD 8 (+1)
UKIP 8 (+5)0 -
What would you like her to have done? Continue to have no position? No deal? Hard deal? (bearing in mind as well that any deal is dependent on the EU agreeing).Pulpstar said:
Looks even worse, oh Theresa what have you done ?TheScreamingEagles said:Correction to the Opinium poll
Con 36 (-6)
Lab 40 (nc)
LD 8 (+1)
UKIP 8 (+5)0 -
LOL! Con -6!TheScreamingEagles said:Correction to the Opinium poll
Con 36 (-6)
Lab 40 (nc)
LD 8 (+1)
UKIP 8 (+5)
When was the last time we saw a collapse as dramatic as this? October/November 2007?0 -
Hearing that Andrew Griffiths has resigned as a Minister.
One of the Sundays has done an expose on him.
He was Theresa May's Chief of Staff back when the Tories were in opposition.0 -
What are the dates for the poll?TheScreamingEagles said:Correction to the Opinium poll
Con 36 (-6)
Lab 40 (nc)
LD 8 (+1)
UKIP 8 (+5)0 -
Sausage or money?TheScreamingEagles said:Hearing that Andrew Griffiths has resigned as a Minister.
One of the Sundays has done an expose on him.
He was Theresa May's Chief of Staff back when the Tories were in opposition.0 -
Not specified.Sean_F said:
What are the dates for the poll?TheScreamingEagles said:Correction to the Opinium poll
Con 36 (-6)
Lab 40 (nc)
LD 8 (+1)
UKIP 8 (+5)0 -
I'm saying nowt.ralphmalph said:
Sausage or money?TheScreamingEagles said:Hearing that Andrew Griffiths has resigned as a Minister.
One of the Sundays has done an expose on him.
He was Theresa May's Chief of Staff back when the Tories were in opposition.0 -
Or both?ralphmalph said:
Sausage or money?TheScreamingEagles said:Hearing that Andrew Griffiths has resigned as a Minister.
One of the Sundays has done an expose on him.
He was Theresa May's Chief of Staff back when the Tories were in opposition.0 -
England in the cricket, surelyGIN1138 said:
LOL! Con -6!TheScreamingEagles said:Correction to the Opinium poll
Con 36 (-6)
Lab 40 (nc)
LD 8 (+1)
UKIP 8 (+5)
When was the last time we saw a collapse as dramatic as this? October/November 2007? 0 -
I'm more inclined to back May in these circumstances. A crappy deal to get us over the line which we can always revisit details of later (Corbyn would presumably want to do so, let alone any new Tory leader) which is pissing off people who seem to want no deal even though, as Boris himself admitted, he could not come up with a plan which convinced the rest of the Cabinet.
Some suggestions for alternate plans are out there. There is virtually no time left to try them, and so it is in the national interest that if Boris and co have a better plan, whether it is more popular or not, they need to take action to try and get it adopted. If they don't challenge May, I will not believe them when they say they disagree with the deal, not really. If it is so bad, and they believe it will be super popular to go hard brexit or no deal brexit, then why are they not actively trying to go for it. May is committed to her course now.0 -
I mean in politics.Sunil_Prasannan said:
England in the cricket, surelyGIN1138 said:
LOL! Con -6!TheScreamingEagles said:Correction to the Opinium poll
Con 36 (-6)
Lab 40 (nc)
LD 8 (+1)
UKIP 8 (+5)
When was the last time we saw a collapse as dramatic as this? October/November 2007? 0 -
Yes, it is a good plan. Do not interrupt an opponent when they are making a mistake.NickPalmer said:
How do you mean, "continue to vote against the deal"? There haven't been any votes on the non-existent deal. The Labour strategy is basically masterly inactivity during the negotiations, since adopting any position in the current mess gets most people against you. We're not the government and we don't need to solve the problem. Corbyn's higher rating on Brexit than May reflects dissatisfaction with May more than anything else.Sandpit said:
There’s a huge dilemma coming up for Labour. For how long to they continue to vote against the deal, whatever it may be, knowing that the absence of a deal leads to a crash out on 30th March?surby said:May will stay on now unless the government itself falls for the same reasons as in June 2017. There is no one else at the moment.
The government could go when this white paper is brought before Parliament [ assuming it is untouched by the EU - very unlikely ] as Labour will not be supporting it and neither will the ERG.
I think, though, that we will call lfor a new referendum once the deal is finally apparent.0 -
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Yes, Labour have done a very good job of hiding their own Brexit decisions up until now, but it’s about to be crunch time.NickPalmer said:
How do you mean, "continue to vote against the deal"? There haven't been any votes on the non-existent deal. The Labour strategy is basically masterly inactivity during the negotiations, since adopting any position in the current mess gets most people against you. We're not the government and we don't need to solve the problem. Corbyn's higher rating on Brexit than May reflects dissatisfaction with May more than anything else.Sandpit said:
There’s a huge dilemma coming up for Labour. For how long to they continue to vote against the deal, whatever it may be, knowing that the absence of a deal leads to a crash out on 30th March?surby said:May will stay on now unless the government itself falls for the same reasons as in June 2017. There is no one else at the moment.
The government could go when this white paper is brought before Parliament [ assuming it is untouched by the EU - very unlikely ] as Labour will not be supporting it and neither will the ERG.
I think, though, that we will call lfor a new referendum once the deal is finally apparent.
When a deal is presented, do Labour vote against it regardless, even if they’re actually in favour of it and even if the result of it being voted against is a crash-out?
How does a referendum fit into the timetable, and what would be the question asked?0 -
Last year. Also, following the row over the 2012 budget.GIN1138 said:
LOL! Con -6!TheScreamingEagles said:Correction to the Opinium poll
Con 36 (-6)
Lab 40 (nc)
LD 8 (+1)
UKIP 8 (+5)
When was the last time we saw a collapse as dramatic as this? October/November 2007?0 -
"Seek professioal help?"dixiedean said:
£100 an hour to say don't send pervy messages when you are a married government Minister?0 -
I agree. Put up or shut up.kle4 said:I'm more inclined to back May in these circumstances. A crappy deal to get us over the line which we can always revisit details of later (Corbyn would presumably want to do so, let alone any new Tory leader) which is pissing off people who seem to want no deal even though, as Boris himself admitted, he could not come up with a plan which convinced the rest of the Cabinet.
Some suggestions for alternate plans are out there. There is virtually no time left to try them, and so it is in the national interest that if Boris and co have a better plan, whether it is more popular or not, they need to take action to try and get it adopted. If they don't challenge May, I will not believe them when they say they disagree with the deal, not really. If it is so bad, and they believe it will be super popular to go hard brexit or no deal brexit, then why are they not actively trying to go for it. May is committed to her course now.0 -
It's good partisan politics. But he cannot pretend later he had a plan, and so would have done better. He will say it, and enough will believe it, but 'masterly inactivity' and not adopting a position will make that untrue. Corbyn really has learned to be a regular politician.Foxy said:
Yes, it is a good plan. Do not interrupt an opponent when they are making a mistake.NickPalmer said:
How do you mean, "continue to vote against the deal"? There haven't been any votes on the non-existent deal. The Labour strategy is basically masterly inactivity during the negotiations, since adopting any position in the current mess gets most people against you. We're not the government and we don't need to solve the problem. Corbyn's higher rating on Brexit than May reflects dissatisfaction with May more than anything else.Sandpit said:
There’s a huge dilemma coming up for Labour. For how long to they continue to vote against the deal, whatever it may be, knowing that the absence of a deal leads to a crash out on 30th March?surby said:May will stay on now unless the government itself falls for the same reasons as in June 2017. There is no one else at the moment.
The government could go when this white paper is brought before Parliament [ assuming it is untouched by the EU - very unlikely ] as Labour will not be supporting it and neither will the ERG.
I think, though, that we will call lfor a new referendum once the deal is finally apparent.0 -
Did we have polls with Con -6 last year?Sean_F said:
Last year. Also, following the row over the 2012 budget.GIN1138 said:
LOL! Con -6!TheScreamingEagles said:Correction to the Opinium poll
Con 36 (-6)
Lab 40 (nc)
LD 8 (+1)
UKIP 8 (+5)
When was the last time we saw a collapse as dramatic as this? October/November 2007?
I know Theresa blew a 25% opinion poll lead in four weeks but I thought it was a tad slower than this? 0 -
"A" mistake ?Foxy said:
Yes, it is a good plan. Do not interrupt an opponent when they are making a mistake.NickPalmer said:
How do you mean, "continue to vote against the deal"? There haven't been any votes on the non-existent deal. The Labour strategy is basically masterly inactivity during the negotiations, since adopting any position in the current mess gets most people against you. We're not the government and we don't need to solve the problem. Corbyn's higher rating on Brexit than May reflects dissatisfaction with May more than anything else.Sandpit said:
There’s a huge dilemma coming up for Labour. For how long to they continue to vote against the deal, whatever it may be, knowing that the absence of a deal leads to a crash out on 30th March?surby said:May will stay on now unless the government itself falls for the same reasons as in June 2017. There is no one else at the moment.
The government could go when this white paper is brought before Parliament [ assuming it is untouched by the EU - very unlikely ] as Labour will not be supporting it and neither will the ERG.
I think, though, that we will call lfor a new referendum once the deal is finally apparent.0 -
I was thinking that, but last June the Tory vote was more or less static, the movement was Labour closing the gap.Sean_F said:
Last year. Also, following the row over the 2012 budget.GIN1138 said:
LOL! Con -6!TheScreamingEagles said:Correction to the Opinium poll
Con 36 (-6)
Lab 40 (nc)
LD 8 (+1)
UKIP 8 (+5)
When was the last time we saw a collapse as dramatic as this? October/November 2007?
I think that the Tories are going to struggle to hold into the Gammon vote.0 -
Nigel Farage said he would return as leader this week didn't he? Might explain the up tick.AlastairMeeks said:
Nigel Farage has opined from Bermuda.Sandpit said:
And has anyone from UKIP even been in the media this week?AlastairMeeks said:Quite impressive brand recognition for UKIP given most people couldn’t name its leader still less pick him out of an identity parade.
0 -
2017?GIN1138 said:
LOL! Con -6!TheScreamingEagles said:Correction to the Opinium poll
Con 36 (-6)
Lab 40 (nc)
LD 8 (+1)
UKIP 8 (+5)
When was the last time we saw a collapse as dramatic as this? October/November 2007?0 -
I think your point that she blew a lead before is telling. How many Tory MP's will be thinking "here we go again" May makes contact with voters and it all goes downhill again.GIN1138 said:
Did we have polls with Con -6 last year?Sean_F said:
Last year. Also, following the row over the 2012 budget.GIN1138 said:
LOL! Con -6!TheScreamingEagles said:Correction to the Opinium poll
Con 36 (-6)
Lab 40 (nc)
LD 8 (+1)
UKIP 8 (+5)
When was the last time we saw a collapse as dramatic as this? October/November 2007?
I know Theresa blew a 25% opinion poll lead in four weeks but I thought it was a tad slower than this?0 -
And I suspect bad poll numbers for months, at least, will be something they have to live with as the price of that. It won't be easy. I think NickPalmer is right Labour may well pivot (once again) to calling for a referendum on the deal, which adds further complications to things. But in the absence of the rebels being willing to stop the deal (despite definitely having the numbers for a leadership contest and they claim the membership loves their ideas), pushing ahead is what the country needs right now.Sean_F said:
I agree. Put up or shut up.kle4 said:I'm more inclined to back May in these circumstances. A crappy deal to get us over the line which we can always revisit details of later (Corbyn would presumably want to do so, let alone any new Tory leader) which is pissing off people who seem to want no deal even though, as Boris himself admitted, he could not come up with a plan which convinced the rest of the Cabinet.
Some suggestions for alternate plans are out there. There is virtually no time left to try them, and so it is in the national interest that if Boris and co have a better plan, whether it is more popular or not, they need to take action to try and get it adopted. If they don't challenge May, I will not believe them when they say they disagree with the deal, not really. If it is so bad, and they believe it will be super popular to go hard brexit or no deal brexit, then why are they not actively trying to go for it. May is committed to her course now.0 -
As someone who leads a quiet life in such matters, could one of the more daring PBers elucidate?dixiedean said:
"Seek professioal help?"dixiedean said:
£100 an hour to say don't send pervy messages when you are a married government Minister?
Does texting dick pictures ever impress the ladies in a positive manner?0 -
Biggest rapid changes in voting intention in the last decade or so
1) The first Brown bounce when he became PM
2) The election that never was in 2007
3) The second Brown bounce during the great financial crisis
4) The Cleggasm
5) Vetogasm
6) When the phone hacking story became an issue for David Cameron over Milly Dowler
7) The 2012 budget
8) The 2016 budget/IDS resignation
9) Theresa May's election campaign.0 -
Until recently you were able to micro target adverts that specifically. There's lots of stories of tech people getting interviews at companies after microctargetting the companies CEO with ads demanding a job.kle4 said:
Doesn't sound very believable.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
If you partake of the online dating sites you will see a lot of women have "Please do not send me pictures of your dick."Foxy said:
As someone who leads a quiet life in such matters, could one of the more daring PBers elucidate?dixiedean said:
"Seek professioal help?"dixiedean said:
£100 an hour to say don't send pervy messages when you are a married government Minister?
Does texting dick pictures ever impress the ladies in a positive manner?0 -
Spare a thought for his wife. From April this year.
'She's our little miracle' - Andrew Griffiths and wife Kate welcome their first baby into the world
MP takes break from Westminster to help care for little Alice Harriet.
https://www.burtonmail.co.uk/news/local-news/shes-little-miracle-andrew-griffiths-14555830 -
I'll say this for May as well - she cannot campaign, and she takes too long to make a decision, but she still seems to be giving more thought to things than people who somehow believe a severely divided party could make a decision on Brexit without pissing off a lot of people and so take a polling hit, even if this hit is even worse than they would have hoped.
It's a fantasy to think a party in government would institute massive change like this on a very divisive issue and still be getting regular leads. They managed leads up to now, but they hadn't actually picked a course!
Night all0 -
Yeah but last year they had a 25% "cushion" where-as now they're already starting "neck and neck" with Jezza!ralphmalph said:
I think your point that she blew a lead before is telling. How many Tory MP's will be thinking "here we go again" May makes contact with voters and it all goes downhill again.GIN1138 said:
Did we have polls with Con -6 last year?Sean_F said:
Last year. Also, following the row over the 2012 budget.GIN1138 said:
LOL! Con -6!TheScreamingEagles said:Correction to the Opinium poll
Con 36 (-6)
Lab 40 (nc)
LD 8 (+1)
UKIP 8 (+5)
When was the last time we saw a collapse as dramatic as this? October/November 2007?
I know Theresa blew a 25% opinion poll lead in four weeks but I thought it was a tad slower than this?0 -
Will be interesting to see where Chequersgate rates.TheScreamingEagles said:Biggest rapid changes in voting intention in the last decade or so
1) The first Brown bounce when he became PM
2) The election that never was in 2007
3) The second Brown bounce during the great financial crisis
4) The Cleggasm
5) Vetogasm
6) When the phone hacking story became an issue for David Cameron over Milly Dowler
7) The 2012 budget
8) The 2016 budget/IDS resignation
9) Theresa May's election campaign. 0 -
Aren't the kids thesedays meant to be constantly texting genital pics? Presumably someone is soliciting them sometimes!Foxy said:
As someone who leads a quiet life in such matters, could one of the more daring PBers elucidate?dixiedean said:
"Seek professioal help?"dixiedean said:
£100 an hour to say don't send pervy messages when you are a married government Minister?
Does texting dick pictures ever impress the ladies in a positive manner?
I feel like if someone were going to send one without being asked, a police notice asking for them not to be sent would be ineffective, but I presume the sites are rigorous enough to cast out such types.ralphmalph said:
If you partake of the online dating sites you will see a lot of women have "Please do not send me pictures of your dick."Foxy said:
As someone who leads a quiet life in such matters, could one of the more daring PBers elucidate?dixiedean said:
"Seek professioal help?"dixiedean said:
£100 an hour to say don't send pervy messages when you are a married government Minister?
Does texting dick pictures ever impress the ladies in a positive manner?0 -
The numbers don't lie.kle4 said:
No, because you are ignoring that the government very obviously had no actual strategy until Chequers, since for months they have been kicking the can down the road, coming up with fudged wording to keep leavers and remainers on side until the point of no return came. Once it came and a side could no longer pretend they had a chance under May, there was an impact.HYUFD said:
No as when May looked like pushing hard Brexit the Tories were on 40%+, most Remainers who were going to defect defected in June 2017.kle4 said:
I expect that's part of it, but on the other hand she needed to make a decision, and she would probably have lost some support either way.JRM and co want no deal for instance, if May adopted that as policy I think the Tories would be in the mid30s as well.Danny565 said:
Summary: Mrs May has made a right pig's ear of things.Danny565 said:Labour opens up biggest lead over Tories since general election
The latest Opinium poll for the Observer puts Labour on 40%, the same score % last month to 8%.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/14/labour-opens-up-biggest-lead-over-tories-since-general-election
It makes no sense to suggest the government had a coherent, clear direction in the months of this year in which the Tories were in the lead. They demonstrably did not, hence all the bickering over amendments and the like.
And if you are right and a hard leave (which for JRM is clearly no deal, since they've waited too long) is so bloody popular with the Tory membership (I don't doubt it is more popular to an extent), then there is no excuse for them not to have had a leadership contest in order to stop May now.
So if we do not get a leadership challenge imminently, the only plausible explanation is that no matter how popular you say hard leave is for the tory poll numbers, the MPs pushing it don't actually believe what they are saying.
The Tories got 42% in June 2017 on a hard Brexit platform and are on 36% in the polls tonight on a soft Brexit platform.
May's deal will likely get us a transition deal but if that deal has not ended with a FTA by the next general election Corbyn becomes PM due to Tory defections to UKIP0 -
Opinium's last poll was 5 weeks ago.GIN1138 said:
Did we have polls with Con -6 last year?Sean_F said:
Last year. Also, following the row over the 2012 budget.GIN1138 said:
LOL! Con -6!TheScreamingEagles said:Correction to the Opinium poll
Con 36 (-6)
Lab 40 (nc)
LD 8 (+1)
UKIP 8 (+5)
When was the last time we saw a collapse as dramatic as this? October/November 2007?
I know Theresa blew a 25% opinion poll lead in four weeks but I thought it was a tad slower than this?0 -
For someone who allegedly voted Remain, you seem to prefer Hard Brexit to a soft one.HYUFD said:
The numbers don't lie.kle4 said:
No, because you are ignoring that the government very obviously had no actual strategy until Chequers, since for months they have been kicking the can down the road, coming up with fudged wording to keep leavers and remainers on side until the point of no return came. Once it came and a side could no longer pretend they had a chance under May, there was an impact.HYUFD said:
No as when May looked like pushing hard Brexit the Tories were on 40%+, most Remainers who were going to defect defected in June 2017.kle4 said:
I expect that's part of it, but on the other hand she needed to make a decision, and she would probably have lost some support either way.JRM and co want no deal for instance, if May adopted that as policy I think the Tories would be in the mid30s as well.Danny565 said:
Summary: Mrs May has made a right pig's ear of things.Danny565 said:Labour opens up biggest lead over Tories since general election
The latest Opinium poll for the Observer puts Labour on 40%, the same score % last month to 8%.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/14/labour-opens-up-biggest-lead-over-tories-since-general-election
It makes no sense to suggest the government had a coherent, clear direction in the months of this year in which the Tories were in the lead. They demonstrably did not, hence all the bickering over amendments and the like.
And if you are right and a hard leave (which for JRM is clearly no deal, since they've waited too long) is so bloody popular with the Tory membership (I don't doubt it is more popular to an extent), then there is no excuse for them not to have had a leadership contest in order to stop May now.
So if we do not get a leadership challenge imminently, the only plausible explanation is that no matter how popular you say hard leave is for the tory poll numbers, the MPs pushing it don't actually believe what they are saying.
The Tories got 42% in June 2017 on a hard Brexit platform and are on 36% in the polls tonight on a soft Brexit platform.
May's deal will likely get us a transition deal but if that deal has not ended with a FTA by the next general election Corbyn becomes PM due to Tory defections to UKIP0 -
It may depend on the dimensions, not much point in doing it if you are the minister for small business in that department. But generally I imagine it's like flashing, designed to excite the exhibitor rather than the recipient.Foxy said:
As someone who leads a quiet life in such matters, could one of the more daring PBers elucidate?dixiedean said:
"Seek professioal help?"dixiedean said:
£100 an hour to say don't send pervy messages when you are a married government Minister?
Does texting dick pictures ever impress the ladies in a positive manner?0 -
I took part in this one - Fri-Sat I think.Sean_F said:
What are the dates for the poll?TheScreamingEagles said:Correction to the Opinium poll
Con 36 (-6)
Lab 40 (nc)
LD 8 (+1)
UKIP 8 (+5)0 -
That's not necessarily inconsistent. I personally voted remain, and after the referendum result came in felt like we might head into a very long period of massive uncertainty that would cripple business. My view back then was that a quick, hard Brexit might be better than five years of uncertainty.surby said:
For someone who allegedly voted Remain, you seem to prefer Hard Brexit to a soft one.
Currently, I think I was wrong about that - the uncertainty has not proved as bad as I feared. But sadly there is still time for such events to happen.0 -
The government's position relative to Labour is much the same as last Autumn ( though both parties are down in absolute terms).HYUFD said:
The numbers don't lie.kle4 said:
No, because you are ignoring that the government very obviously had no actual strategy until Chequers, since for months they have been kicking the can down the road, coming up with fudged wording to keep leavers and remainers on side until the point of no return came. Once it came and a side could no longer pretend they had a chance under May, there was an impact.HYUFD said:
No as when May looked like pushing hard Brexit the Tories were on 40%+, most Remainers who were going to defect defected in June 2017.kle4 said:
I expect that's part of it, but on the other hand she needed to make a decision, and she would probably have lost some support either way.JRM and co want no deal for instance, if May adopted that as policy I think the Tories would be in the mid30s as well.Danny565 said:
Summary: Mrs May has made a right pig's ear of things.Danny565 said:Labour opens up biggest lead over Tories since general election
The latest Opinium poll for the Observer puts Labour on 40%, the same score % last month to 8%.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/14/labour-opens-up-biggest-lead-over-tories-since-general-election
It makes no sense to suggest the government had a coherent, clear direction in the months of this year in which the Tories were in the lead. They demonstrably did not, hence all the bickering over amendments and the like.
And if you are right and a hard leave (which for JRM is clearly no deal, since they've waited too long) is so bloody popular with the Tory membership (I don't doubt it is more popular to an extent), then there is no excuse for them not to have had a leadership contest in order to stop May now.
So if we do not get a leadership challenge imminently, the only plausible explanation is that no matter how popular you say hard leave is for the tory poll numbers, the MPs pushing it don't actually believe what they are saying.
The Tories got 42% in June 2017 on a hard Brexit platform and are on 36% in the polls tonight on a soft Brexit platform.
May's deal will likely get us a transition deal but if that deal has not ended with a FTA by the next general election Corbyn becomes PM due to Tory defections to UKIP0 -
No as I have said I would back May's deal in the hope we get a transition period and a FTA.surby said:
For someone who allegedly voted Remain, you seem to prefer Hard Brexit to a soft one.HYUFD said:
The numbers don't lie.kle4 said:
No, because you are ignoring that the government very obviously had no actual strategy until Chequers, since for months they have been kicking the can down the road, coming up with fudged wording to keep leavers and remainers on side until bership (I don't doubt it is more popular to an extent), then there is no excuse for them not to have had a leadership contest in order to stop May now.HYUFD said:
No as when May looked like pushing hard Brexit the Tories were on 40%+, most Remainers who were going to defect defected in June 2017.kle4 said:
I expect that's part of it, but on the other hand she needed to make a decision, and she would probably have lost some support either way.JRM and co want no deal for instance, if May adopted that as policy I think the Tories would be in the mid30s as well.Danny565 said:
Summary: Mrs May has made a right pig's ear of things.Danny565 said:Labour opens up biggest lead over Tories since general election
The latest Opinium poll for the Observer puts Labour on 40%, the same score % last month to 8%.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/14/labour-opens-up-biggest-lead-over-tories-since-general-election
So if we do not get a leadership challenge imminently, the only plausible explanation is that no matter how popular you say hard leave is for the tory poll numbers, the MPs pushing it don't actually believe what they are saying.
The Tories got 42% in June 2017 on a hard Brexit platform and are on 36% in the polls tonight on a soft Brexit platform.
May's deal will likely get us a transition deal but if that deal has not ended with a FTA by the next general election Corbyn becomes PM due to Tory defections to UKIP
However as I have also said I think It only gets us a transition deal not a FTA by the next general election as the EU will stall or demand more concessions in which case as a Tory member we would then have to go to hard Brexit or face Corbyn as PM.
In my view Corbyn as PM is worse than hard Brexit even though I voted Remain0 -
Wasn't he going on about online abuse at the time his kid was born?TheScreamingEagles said:Spare a thought for his wife. From April this year.
'She's our little miracle' - Andrew Griffiths and wife Kate welcome their first baby into the world
MP takes break from Westminster to help care for little Alice Harriet.
https://www.burtonmail.co.uk/news/local-news/shes-little-miracle-andrew-griffiths-1455583
Prepare the petard for hoisting action.0 -
Anthony Weiner, Brooks Newmark, Andrew Griffiths, all idiots.Ishmael_Z said:
It may depend on the dimensions, not much point in doing it if you are the minister for small business in that department. But generally I imagine it's like flashing, designed to excite the exhibitor rather than the recipient.Foxy said:
As someone who leads a quiet life in such matters, could one of the more daring PBers elucidate?dixiedean said:
"Seek professioal help?"dixiedean said:
£100 an hour to say don't send pervy messages when you are a married government Minister?
Does texting dick pictures ever impress the ladies in a positive manner?0 -
The Tories were still on 40%+ in most polls last autumn even if Labour led a few, now the Tories are below 40% in all the post Chequers pollsSean_F said:
The government's position relative to Labour is much the same as last Autumn ( though both parties are down in absolute terms).HYUFD said:
The numbers don't lie.kle4 said:
No, because you are ignoring that the government very obviously had no actual strategy until Chequers, since for months they have been kicking the can down the road, coming up with fudged wording to keep leavers and remainers on side until the point of no return came. Once it came and a side could no longer pretend they had a chance under May, there was an impact.HYUFD said:
No as when May looked like pushing hard Brexit the Tories were on 40%+, most Remainers who were going to defect defected in June 2017.kle4 said:
I expect that's part of it, but on the other hand she needed to make a decision, and she would probably have lost some support either way.JRM and co want no deal for instance, if May adopted that as policy I think the Tories would be in the mid30s as well.Danny565 said:
Summary: Mrs May has made a right pig's ear of things.Danny565 said:Labour opens up biggest lead over Tories since general election
The latest Opinium poll for the Observer puts Labour on 40%, the same score % last month to 8%.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/14/labour-opens-up-biggest-lead-over-tories-since-general-election
It makes no sense to suggest the government had a coherent, clear direction in the months of this year in which the Tories were in the lead. They demonstrably did not, hence all the bickering over amendments and the like.
And if you are right and a hard leave (which for JRM is clearly no deal, since they've waited too long) is so bloody popular with the Tory membership (I don't doubt it is more popular to an extent), then there is no excuse for them not to have had a leadership contest in order to stop May now.
So if we do not get a leadership challenge imminently, the only plausible explanation is that no matter how popular you say hard leave is for the tory poll numbers, the MPs pushing it don't actually believe what they are saying.
The Tories got 42% in June 2017 on a hard Brexit platform and are on 36% in the polls tonight on a soft Brexit platform.
May's deal will likely get us a transition deal but if that deal has not ended with a FTA by the next general election Corbyn becomes PM due to Tory defections to UKIP0 -
Always amusing to hear people on here say they took part in polls. For polling that tries to get a representative sample of the general population, there’s an awful lot of party members and otherwise very politically engaged people who seem to get polled regularly!NickPalmer said:
I took part in this one - Fri-Sat I think.Sean_F said:
What are the dates for the poll?TheScreamingEagles said:Correction to the Opinium poll
Con 36 (-6)
Lab 40 (nc)
LD 8 (+1)
UKIP 8 (+5)
Let me guess, you told them you’d vote Labour? 0 -
Directed at his wife and baby.Theuniondivvie said:
Wasn't he going on about online abuse at the time his kid was born?TheScreamingEagles said:Spare a thought for his wife. From April this year.
'She's our little miracle' - Andrew Griffiths and wife Kate welcome their first baby into the world
MP takes break from Westminster to help care for little Alice Harriet.
https://www.burtonmail.co.uk/news/local-news/shes-little-miracle-andrew-griffiths-1455583
Prepare the petard for hoisting action.0 -
Clearly politics needs people of high moral hygiene as MPs.
Therefore I think I should become an MP.0 -
Have you had it with Theresa HYUFD?HYUFD said:
The Tories were still on 40%+ in most polls last autumn even if Labour led a few, now the Tories are below 40% in all the post Chequers pollsSean_F said:
The government's position relative to Labour is much the same as last Autumn ( though both parties are down in absolute terms).HYUFD said:
The numbers don't lie.kle4 said:
No, because you are ignoring that the government very obviously had no actual strategy until Chequers, since for months they have been kicking the can down the road, coming up with fudged wording to keep leavers and remainers on side until the point of no return came. Once it came and a side could no longer pretend they had a chance under May, there was an impact.HYUFD said:
No as when May looked like pushing hard Brexit the Tories were on 40%+, most Remainers who were going to defect defected in June 2017.kle4 said:
I expect that's part of it, but on the other hand she needed to make a decision, and she would probably have lost some support either way.JRM and co want no deal for instance, if May adopted that as policy I think the Tories would be in the mid30s as well.Danny565 said:
Summary: Mrs May has made a right pig's ear of things.Danny565 said:Labour opens up biggest lead over Tories since general election
The latest Opinium poll for the Observer puts Labour on 40%, the same score % last month to 8%.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/14/labour-opens-up-biggest-lead-over-tories-since-general-election
It makes no sense to suggest the government had a coherent, clear direction in the months of this year in which the Tories were in the lead. They demonstrably did not, hence all the bickering over amendments and the like.
And if you are right and a hard leave (which for JRM is clearly no deal, since they've waited too long) is so bloody popular with the Tory membership (I don't doubt it is more popular to an extent), then there is no excuse for them not to have had a leadership contest in order to stop May now.
So if we do not get a leadership challenge imminently, the only plausible explanation is that no matter how popular you say hard leave is for the tory poll numbers, the MPs pushing it don't actually believe what they are saying.
The Tories got 42% in June 2017 on a hard Brexit platform and are on 36% in the polls tonight on a soft Brexit platform.
May's deal will likely get us a transition deal but if that deal has not ended with a FTA by the next general election Corbyn becomes PM due to Tory defections to UKIP0 -
Opposition generally works on the basis that you point out the snags in what the Government is doing, and just sketch out your alternative in broad outline (e.g. yes to customs union, no to single market). I was being a bit mischievous with my earlier post, but really there is not a lot of point in trying to take a detailed position on a negotiation with every twist and turn. The centre of gravity in Labour is mildly Remain, just as the centre of Conservative gravity is fairly hard Leave. When we finally have a result from the Government (or not), there will only be 3 options: Labour will need to either amiably accept the outcome (unlikely) or reject it outright (hmm) or propose putting it to a vote with Remain as the alternative (which is what I think we'll do). If people still want to withdraw when they see the deal, fair enough.kle4 said:
It's good partisan politics. But he cannot pretend later he had a plan, and so would have done better. He will say it, and enough will believe it, but 'masterly inactivity' and not adopting a position will make that untrue. Corbyn really has learned to be a regular politician.0 -
I took part in a Populus poll and I think a Survation poll yesterday.Sandpit said:
Always amusing to hear people on here say they took part in polls. For polling that tries to get a representative sample of the general population, there’s an awful lot of party members and otherwise very politically engaged people who seem to get polled regularly!NickPalmer said:
I took part in this one - Fri-Sat I think.Sean_F said:
What are the dates for the poll?TheScreamingEagles said:Correction to the Opinium poll
Con 36 (-6)
Lab 40 (nc)
LD 8 (+1)
UKIP 8 (+5)
Let me guess, you told them you’d vote Labour?
I think if it was for Survation we might see it tonight.0 -
Labour were about 0-4% ahead then.HYUFD said:
The Tories were still on 40%+ in most polls last autumn even if Labour led a few, now the Tories are below 40% in all the post Chequers pollsSean_F said:
The government's position relative to Labour is much the same as last Autumn ( though both parties are down in absolute terms).HYUFD said:
The numbers don't lie.kle4 said:
No, because you are ignoring that the government very obviously had no actual strategy until Chequers, since for months they have been kicking the can down the road, coming up with fudged wording to keep leavers and remainers on side until the point of no return came. Once it came and a side could no longer pretend they had a chance under May, there was an impact.HYUFD said:
No as when May looked like pushing hard Brexit the Tories were on 40%+, most Remainers who were going to defect defected in June 2017.kle4 said:
I expect that's part of it, but on the other hand she needed to make a decision, and she would probably have lost some support either way.JRM and co want no deal for instance, if May adopted that as policy I think the Tories would be in the mid30s as well.Danny565 said:
Summary: Mrs May has made a right pig's ear of things.Danny565 said:Labour opens up biggest lead over Tories since general election
The latest Opinium poll for the Observer puts Labour on 40%, the same score % last month to 8%.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/14/labour-opens-up-biggest-lead-over-tories-since-general-election
It makes no sense to suggest the government had a coherent, clear direction in the months of this year in which the Tories were in the lead. They demonstrably did not, hence all the bickering over amendments and the like.
And if you are right and a hard leave (which for JRM is clearly no deal, since they've waited too long) is so bloody popular with the Tory membership (I don't doubt it is more popular to an extent), then there is no excuse for them not to have had a leadership contest in order to stop May now.
So if we do not get a leadership challenge imminently, the only plausible explanation is that no matter how popular you say hard leave is for the tory poll numbers, the MPs pushing it don't actually believe what they are saying.
The Tories got 42% in June 2017 on a hard Brexit platform and are on 36% in the polls tonight on a soft Brexit platform.
May's deal will likely get us a transition deal but if that deal has not ended with a FTA by the next general election Corbyn becomes PM due to Tory defections to UKIP0 -
Very sad for his wife.TheScreamingEagles said:Spare a thought for his wife. From April this year.
'She's our little miracle' - Andrew Griffiths and wife Kate welcome their first baby into the world
MP takes break from Westminster to help care for little Alice Harriet.
https://www.burtonmail.co.uk/news/local-news/shes-little-miracle-andrew-griffiths-1455583
Given how often this happens, there’s obviously a personality type that’s attracted to politics that’s also predisposed towards such behaviour. A waste of a ministerial career.0 -
No Tory will be pure enough for HYUFD and no remainer pure enough for Surby.surby said:
For someone who allegedly voted Remain, you seem to prefer Hard Brexit to a soft one.HYUFD said:
The numbers don't lie.kle4 said:
No, because you are ignoring that the government very obviously had no actual strategy until Chequers, since for months they have been kicking the can down the road, coming up with fudged wording to keep leavers and remainers on side until the point of no return came. Once it came and a side could no longer pretend they had a chance under May, there was an impact.HYUFD said:
No as when May looked like pushing hard Brexit the Tories were on 40%+, most Remainers who were going to defect defected in June 2017.kle4 said:
I expect that's part of it, but on the other hand she needed to make a decision, and she would probably have lost some support either way.JRM and co want no deal for instance, if May adopted that as policy I think the Tories would be in the mid30s as well.Danny565 said:
Summary: Mrs May has made a right pig's ear of things.Danny565 said:Labour opens up biggest lead over Tories since general election
The latest Opinium poll for the Observer puts Labour on 40%, the same score % last month to 8%.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/14/labour-opens-up-biggest-lead-over-tories-since-general-election
It makes no sense to suggest the government had a coherent, clear direction in the months of this year in which the Tories were in the lead. They demonstrably did not, hence all the bickering over amendments and the like.
And if you are right and a hard leave (which for JRM is clearly no deal, since they've waited too long) is so bloody popular with the Tory membership (I don't doubt it is more popular to an extent), then there is no excuse for them not to have had a leadership contest in order to stop May now.
So if we do not get a leadership challenge imminently, the only plausible explanation is that no matter how popular you say hard leave is for the tory poll numbers, the MPs pushing it don't actually believe what they are saying.
The Tories got 42% in June 2017 on a hard Brexit platform and are on 36% in the polls tonight on a soft Brexit platform.
May's deal will likely get us a transition deal but if that deal has not ended with a FTA by the next general election Corbyn becomes PM due to Tory defections to UKIP0 -
There is that, but the job itself is also fairly unusual. It is incredibly public-facing, and can force you to work in two places: London and the constituency, meaning you may have to spend lots of time away from home. There are also lots of pressures, and you get to meet lots of people.Sandpit said:
Very sad for his wife.TheScreamingEagles said:Spare a thought for his wife. From April this year.
'She's our little miracle' - Andrew Griffiths and wife Kate welcome their first baby into the world
MP takes break from Westminster to help care for little Alice Harriet.
https://www.burtonmail.co.uk/news/local-news/shes-little-miracle-andrew-griffiths-1455583
Given how often this happens, there’s obviously a personality type that’s attracted to politics that’s also predisposed towards such behaviour. A waste of a ministerial career.
Add in a new baby - which always changes relationships - and I can see why loneliness might strike.
Yes, some will be predators. But many will just be lonely people - as many of us might be in their situation.0 -
Typical chat up lines include,Sandpit said:
Very sad for his wife.TheScreamingEagles said:Spare a thought for his wife. From April this year.
'She's our little miracle' - Andrew Griffiths and wife Kate welcome their first baby into the world
MP takes break from Westminster to help care for little Alice Harriet.
https://www.burtonmail.co.uk/news/local-news/shes-little-miracle-andrew-griffiths-1455583
Given how often this happens, there’s obviously a personality type that’s attracted to politics that’s also predisposed towards such behaviour. A waste of a ministerial career.
"Would you like to see the length of my dick?"
"Let's go and buy a vibrator".
Or alternatively, follow the example of Mike Hancock and expose yourself to a constituent.0 -
I disagree, there is being nice to women in the wooing process (married or not) and then there is sending dick pic's.JosiasJessop said:
There is that, but the job itself is also fairly unusual. It is incredibly public-facing, and can force you to work in two places: London and the constituency, meaning you may have to spend lots of time away from home. There are also lots of pressures, and you get to meet lots of people.Sandpit said:
Very sad for his wife.TheScreamingEagles said:Spare a thought for his wife. From April this year.
'She's our little miracle' - Andrew Griffiths and wife Kate welcome their first baby into the world
MP takes break from Westminster to help care for little Alice Harriet.
https://www.burtonmail.co.uk/news/local-news/shes-little-miracle-andrew-griffiths-1455583
Given how often this happens, there’s obviously a personality type that’s attracted to politics that’s also predisposed towards such behaviour. A waste of a ministerial career.
Add in a new baby - which always changes relationships - and I can see why loneliness might strike.
Yes, some will be predators. But many will just be lonely people - as many of us might be in their situation.
Anybody sending disk picks is defective in the social sense.0 -
I’d say MPs are fairly representative of the public in their levels of infidelity. It’s not very edifying but I’m not sure why it’s a resigning matter in 2018 if there was no abuse of power.0
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It's a secret ballot!Sandpit said:
Always amusing to hear people on here say they took part in polls. For polling that tries to get a representative sample of the general population, there’s an awful lot of party members and otherwise very politically engaged people who seem to get polled regularly!NickPalmer said:
I took part in this one - Fri-Sat I think.Sean_F said:
What are the dates for the poll?TheScreamingEagles said:Correction to the Opinium poll
Con 36 (-6)
Lab 40 (nc)
LD 8 (+1)
UKIP 8 (+5)
Let me guess, you told them you’d vote Labour?
But yes, I do wonder about that, but I guess it evens out - I get polled by Opinium on politics about twice a year, not enough to matter.0 -
We need a Deal or No Deal referendum, preferably with Noel Edmonds fronting the debates.
Chequers Deal winning would neutralize the "Will of the People" thing, if No Deal wins it gives us time to emigrate or stockpile beans.0 -
I expect the Lib Dems will soon get an uptick. Labour and the Conservatives have been mutually reinforcing of each other’s polling. Centrist Remainers will feel more able to express their first preferences if they think the Conservatives are on the wane.0
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I think yourself and Mr Eagles might cancel each other out!NickPalmer said:
It's a secret ballot!Sandpit said:
Always amusing to hear people on here say they took part in polls. For polling that tries to get a representative sample of the general population, there’s an awful lot of party members and otherwise very politically engaged people who seem to get polled regularly!NickPalmer said:
I took part in this one - Fri-Sat I think.Sean_F said:
What are the dates for the poll?TheScreamingEagles said:Correction to the Opinium poll
Con 36 (-6)
Lab 40 (nc)
LD 8 (+1)
UKIP 8 (+5)
Let me guess, you told them you’d vote Labour?
But yes, I do wonder about that, but I guess it evens out - I get polled by Opinium on politics about twice a year, not enough to matter.
I seem to recall an issue with one of the pollsters (YouGov?) around the Scottish Indyref, where a large group of SNP supporters had got themselves signed up with the intention of gaming polls to show a swing towards Yes during the campaign.0 -
YouGov filtered them out straight away.Sandpit said:
I think yourself and Mr Eagles might cancel each other out!NickPalmer said:
It's a secret ballot!Sandpit said:
Always amusing to hear people on here say they took part in polls. For polling that tries to get a representative sample of the general population, there’s an awful lot of party members and otherwise very politically engaged people who seem to get polled regularly!NickPalmer said:
I took part in this one - Fri-Sat I think.Sean_F said:
What are the dates for the poll?TheScreamingEagles said:Correction to the Opinium poll
Con 36 (-6)
Lab 40 (nc)
LD 8 (+1)
UKIP 8 (+5)
Let me guess, you told them you’d vote Labour?
But yes, I do wonder about that, but I guess it evens out - I get polled by Opinium on politics about twice a year, not enough to matter.
I seem to recall an issue with one of the pollsters (YouGov?) around the Scottish Indyref, where a large group of SNP supporters had got themselves signed up with the intention of gaming polls to show a swing towards Yes during the campaign.0 -
I see there are calls for a Deal vs Remain referendum being debated at Labour's autumn conference.NickPalmer said:
Opposition generally works on the basis that you point out the snags in what the Government is doing, and just sketch out your alternative in broad outline (e.g. yes to customs union, no to single market). I was being a bit mischievous with my earlier post, but really there is not a lot of point in trying to take a detailed position on a negotiation with every twist and turn. The centre of gravity in Labour is mildly Remain, just as the centre of Conservative gravity is fairly hard Leave. When we finally have a result from the Government (or not), there will only be 3 options: Labour will need to either amiably accept the outcome (unlikely) or reject it outright (hmm) or propose putting it to a vote with Remain as the alternative (which is what I think we'll do). If people still want to withdraw when they see the deal, fair enough.kle4 said:
It's good partisan politics. But he cannot pretend later he had a plan, and so would have done better. He will say it, and enough will believe it, but 'masterly inactivity' and not adopting a position will make that untrue. Corbyn really has learned to be a regular politician.
I suspect that it would be passed if debated, but might be stage-managed off stage.0 -
The reason I get polled so often is as one of the pollsters told me, I represent a demographic that is usually very hard to get to respond to polls.0
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"Put on those red shoes and dance the blues"TheScreamingEagles said:The reason I get polled so often is as one of the pollsters told me, I represent a demographic that is usually very hard to get to respond to polls.
0 -
Conservative party members?TheScreamingEagles said:The reason I get polled so often is as one of the pollsters told me, I represent a demographic that is usually very hard to get to respond to polls.
0 -
That and my BAME heritage.Sandpit said:
Conservative party members?TheScreamingEagles said:The reason I get polled so often is as one of the pollsters told me, I represent a demographic that is usually very hard to get to respond to polls.
0
