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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rees-Mogg moves back into the favourite slot for next CON lead

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212
    edited July 2018

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Anyone seen the telegraph article with comments from Steve Baker? Explosive stuff. Think the Tories are finished unless May goes.

    How does her going now help? There seems a lot of confusion over why they are taking hits in polling to my view. This 'It's May' approach seems to ignore why May is doing what she is doing - a hopelessly divided party and a damn difficult negotiation to try to resolve. She's done a pretty bad job of it in fairness. But replace May with Boris and see how his no deal/hard brexit goes down, with the internal fights certain to still take place given we have a Cabinet of Tory MPs supporting something else already, and they would still be in big trouble.

    May has made things worse by dithering, but she is a symptom of the problem. If replacing her was all it would take to 'save' the party, they surely really would have done it already.

    They haven't. Why? Because it wouldn't solve their problems.
    Sorry but the Tories have lost 6% within a week after switching from a hard Brexit to a soft Brexit platform. May or no May the root of the polling problem is clear
    Sorry, but they didn't switch to a soft brexit - they hadn't agreed a position prior to then. That was the big failure of May this year, the indecision. Whatever noises she may have made before, Chequers was about being no deal/ hard brexit, so do the country, so why are they permitting May to delude herself that her deal is possible?

    A contest may well come, but there's no excuse for why it has not already occurred if the rhetoric of the harder leavers is sincere, and if you are right about how popular it would be.
    HYUFD speaks as if the party has gone all UKIP.

    There are a good 200 - 230 conservative MP's who will fight a hard Brexit thankfully.

    May has tried to come out with a solution but both extremes want a full extreme result.

    She could be replaced, indeed she couod resign, but to use her words ' nothing changes'

    What a total mess
    Look Big G. We have had 3 polls since this Chequers Deal all of which have Labour ahead and the Tories down and UKIP up.

    So it is not so much the party has gone all UKIP but many of the party's voters have gone to UKIP.

    If it does not get them back Corbyn will be PM while we will still be out of the single market.

    End of conversation
    I do not want to fall out with you but this is heading for a second vote
    No it isn't, neither the Tories nor Corbyn support a second vote
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Barnesian said:

    David Wooding

    Verified account

    @DavidWooding


    Labour surges into a five-point lead over Tories, in a @DeltapollUK poll for The Sun on Sunday tomorrow.

    KABOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMM (2) :D
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    AndyJS said:

    Anyone seen the telegraph article with comments from Steve Baker? Explosive stuff. Think the Tories are finished unless May goes.

    How representative are those comments though?
    They need to put the letters in and see what happens
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,903
    I kinda miss Ed Miliband :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,222
    GIN1138 said:

    Barnesian said:

    David Wooding

    Verified account

    @DavidWooding


    Labour surges into a five-point lead over Tories, in a @DeltapollUK poll for The Sun on Sunday tomorrow.

    KABOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMM (2) :D
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bIreaM3XV4M
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edited July 2018
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    If the end result of Brexit is a Corbyn government, I will officially regret my Leave vote.

    These polls are dire for the Tories. Theresa May is far, far worse than Brown or Major. She has to go, but when? I suppose Tories must let her deliver her awful Brexit, then sack her in April, and blame it all on her.

    But Holy Christ, GET RID OF THIS AUTISTIC COW

    If there was a 2nd referendum right now, I'm not sure how I'd vote. Probably - just about - LEAVE, but bloody hell I am not at all sure.

    It is only a hard Brexit which will keep Corbyn out and prevent Tory Leavers moving to UKIP it seems.

    So either choice not great for the country or the economy
    You still haven't responded to the question I have now asked twice today of you.

    How do you stop planes being grounded, log jams at ports, Airbus, Jaguar Land Rover and others migrating back to Europe, the loss of EU wide health cover and non visa travel . How are you proposing to prevent the markets and currencies crashing and investment pouring out of the Country as you so often warn us would happen under Corbyn

    I am so interested in your answer as to date, not one Brexiteer has made the argument
    Well if we agree a transition deal but no FTA is forthcoming we have plenty of time to prepare before it ends
    Still no answer. You really need to provide one whether you think it is a soft or hard Brexit
    Ultimately if it is hard Brexit we simply go to WTO terms and of course remember most of our exports now let alone our whole economy do not depend on trade with the EU
    but how many of these non-EU exports are by companies like Airbus, JLR, etc whose supply lines would be destroyed by a WTO Brexit?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Anyone seen the telegraph article with comments from Steve Baker? Explosive stuff. Think the Tories are finished unless May goes.

    How does her going now help? There seems a lot of confusion over why they are taking hits in polling to my view. This 'It's May' approach seems to ignore why May is doing what she is doing - a hopelessly divided party and a damn difficult negotiation to try to resolve. She's done a pretty bad job of it in fairness. But replace May with Boris and see how his no deal/hard brexit goes down, with the internal fights certain to still take place given we have a Cabinet of Tory MPs supporting something else already, and they would still be in big trouble.

    May has made things worse by dithering, but she is a symptom of the problem. If replacing her was all it would take to 'save' the party, they surely really would have done it already.

    They haven't. Why? Because it wouldn't solve their problems.
    Sorry but the Tories have lost 6% within a week after switching from a hard Brexit to a soft Brexit platform. May or no May the root of the polling problem is clear
    Sorry, but they didn't switch to a soft brexit - they hadn't agreed a position prior to then. That was the big failure of May this year, the indecision. Whatever noises she may have made before, Chequers was about being no deal/ hard brexit, so do the country, so why are they permitting May to delude herself that her deal is possible?

    A contest may well come, but there's no excuse for why it has not already occurred if the rhetoric of the harder leavers is sincere, and if you are right about how popular it would be.
    HYUFD speaks as if the party has gone all UKIP.

    There are a good 200 - 230 conservative MP's who will fight a hard Brexit thankfully.

    May has tried to come out with a solution but both extremes want a full extreme result.

    She could be replaced, indeed she couod resign, but to use her words ' nothing changes'

    What a total mess
    Look Big G. We have had 3 polls since this Chequers Deal all of which have Labour ahead and the Tories down and UKIP up.

    So it is not so much the party has gone all UKIP but many of the party's voters have gone to UKIP.

    If it does not get them back Corbyn will be PM while we will still be out of the single market.

    End of conversation
    I do not want to fall out with you but this is heading for a second vote
    Is there a chance , May might get her chequres deal through parliament with opposition help.
    Also would enhance her position by acting in the national interest.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Peter Mandelson joins Brexiters in attack on May’s EU ‘humiliation’

    Labour peer says it would be better to crash out of the EU than back PM’s latest blueprint"

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/14/mandelson-brexiters-may-eu-humiliation-opinium-poll
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    rpjs said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    If the end result of Brexit is a Corbyn government, I will officially regret my Leave vote.

    These polls are dire for the Tories. Theresa May is far, far worse than Brown or Major. She has to go, but when? I suppose Tories must let her deliver her awful Brexit, then sack her in April, and blame it all on her.

    But Holy Christ, GET RID OF THIS AUTISTIC COW

    If there was a 2nd referendum right now, I'm not sure how I'd vote. Probably - just about - LEAVE, but bloody hell I am not at all sure.

    It is only a hard Brexit which will keep Corbyn out and prevent Tory Leavers moving to UKIP it seems.

    So either choice not great for the country or the economy
    You still haven't responded to the question I have now asked twice today of you.

    How do you stop planes being grounded, log jams at ports, Airbus, Jaguar Land Rover and others migrating back to Europe, the loss of EU wide health cover and non visa travel . How are you proposing to prevent the markets and currencies crashing and investment pouring out of the Country as you so often warn us would happen under Corbyn

    I am so interested in your answer as to date, not one Brexiteer has made the argument
    Well if we agree a transition deal but no FTA is forthcoming we have plenty of time to prepare before it ends
    Still no answer. You really need to provide one whether you think it is a soft or hard Brexit
    Ultimately if it is hard Brexit we simply go to WTO terms and of course remember most of our exports now let alone our whole economy do not depend on trade with the EU
    but how many of thise non-EU exports are by companies like Airbus, JLR, etc whose supply lines would be destroyed by a WTO Brexit?
    I do not think Brexiteers care about Airbus. After all their hero Boris told them to FO
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Barnesian said:

    David Wooding

    Verified account

    @DavidWooding


    Labour surges into a five-point lead over Tories, in a @DeltapollUK poll for The Sun on Sunday tomorrow.

    Is this a new polling company? Never heard of them.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,903
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    David Wooding

    Verified account

    @DavidWooding


    Labour surges into a five-point lead over Tories, in a @DeltapollUK poll for The Sun on Sunday tomorrow.

    Delta who????
    Martin Boon
    Isn't he Mr ICM?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212
    rpjs said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    If the end result of Brexit is a Corbyn government, I will officially regret my Leave vote.

    These polls are dire for the Tories. Theresa May is far, far worse than Brown or Major. She has to go, but when? I suppose Tories must let her deliver her awful Brexit, then sack her in April, and blame it all on her.

    But Holy Christ, GET RID OF THIS AUTISTIC COW

    If there was a 2nd referendum right now, I'm not sure how I'd vote. Probably - just about - LEAVE, but bloody hell I am not at all sure.

    It is only a hard Brexit which will keep Corbyn out and prevent Tory Leavers moving to UKIP it seems.

    So either choice not great for the country or the economy
    You still haven't responded to the question I have now asked twice today of you.

    How do you stop planes being grounded, log jams at ports, Airbus, Jaguar Land Rover and others migrating back to Europe, the loss of EU wide health cover and non visa travel . How are you proposing to prevent the markets and currencies crashing and investment pouring out of the Country as you so often warn us would happen under Corbyn

    I am so interested in your answer as to date, not one Brexiteer has made the argument
    Well if we agree a transition deal but no FTA is forthcoming we have plenty of time to prepare before it ends
    Still no answer. You really need to provide one whether you think it is a soft or hard Brexit
    Ultimately if it is hard Brexit we simply go to WTO terms and of course remember most of our exports now let alone our whole economy do not depend on trade with the EU
    but how many of these non-EU exports are by companies like Airbus, JLR, etc whose supply lines would be destroyed by a WTO Brexit?
    Airbus for starters is a French company
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,701
    AndyJS said:

    Barnesian said:

    David Wooding

    Verified account

    @DavidWooding


    Labour surges into a five-point lead over Tories, in a @DeltapollUK poll for The Sun on Sunday tomorrow.

    Is this a new polling company? Never heard of them.
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/03/12/just-launched-new-pollster-featuring-martn-boon-and-joe-twyman-formerly-of-icm-and-yougov/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Anyone seen the telegraph article with comments from Steve Baker? Explosive stuff. Think the Tories are finished unless May goes.

    How does her going now help? There seems a lot of confusion over why they are taking hits in polling to my view. This 'It's May' approach seems to ignore why May is doing what she is doing - a hopelessly divided party and a damn difficult negotiation to try to resolve. She's done a pretty bad job of it in fairness. But replace May with Boris and see how his no deal/hard brexit goes down, with the internal fights certain to still take place given we have a Cabinet of Tory MPs supporting something else already, and they would still be in big trouble.

    May has made things worse by dithering, but she is a symptom of the problem. If replacing her was all it would take to 'save' the party, they surely really would have done it already.

    They haven't. Why? Because it wouldn't solve their problems.
    Sorry but the Tories have lost 6% within a week after switching from a hard Brexit to a soft Brexit platform. May or no May the root of the polling problem is clear
    Sorry, but they didn't switch to a soft brexit - they hadn't agreed a position prior to then. That was the big failure of May this year, the indecision. Whatever noises she may have made before, Chequers was about being no deal/ hard brexit, so do the country, so why are they permitting May to delude herself that her deal is possible?

    A contest may well come, but there's no excuse for why it has not already occurred if the rhetoric of the harder leavers is sincere, and if you are right about how popular it would be.
    HYUFD speaks as if the party has gone all UKIP.

    There are a good 200 - 230 conservative MP's who will fight a hard Brexit thankfully.

    May has tried to come out with a solution but both extremes want a full extreme result.

    She could be replaced, indeed she couod resign, but to use her words ' nothing changes'

    What a total mess
    Look Big G. We have had 3 polls since this Chequers Deal all of which have Labour ahead and the Tories down and UKIP up.

    So it is not so much the party has gone all UKIP but many of the party's voters have gone to UKIP.

    If it does not get them back Corbyn will be PM while we will still be out of the single market.

    End of conversation
    Does it not occur that some Conservatives might fall away if the party as a whole adopts the stance of JRM?
    Not to Corbyn no. Indeed last week's Survation gave Mogg a higher net approval rating than any other Tory leadership contender. If a handful go LD so be it
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2018
    "From post-modernism to filter bubbles, ‘truth decay’ has been spreading for decades. How can we stop alternative facts from bringing down democracy, asks Michiko Kakutani"

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/jul/14/the-death-of-truth-how-we-gave-up-on-facts-and-ended-up-with-trump

    That's interesting, only yesterday I was asking whether postmodernism was partly responsible for fake news. Ironic if true, since postmodernism is mostly a left-wing thing.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    rpjs said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    If the end result of Brexit is a Corbyn government, I will officially regret my Leave vote.

    These polls are dire for the Tories. Theresa May is far, far worse than Brown or Major. She has to go, but when? I suppose Tories must let her deliver her awful Brexit, then sack her in April, and blame it all on her.

    But Holy Christ, GET RID OF THIS AUTISTIC COW

    If there was a 2nd referendum right now, I'm not sure how I'd vote. Probably - just about - LEAVE, but bloody hell I am not at all sure.

    It is only a hard Brexit which will keep Corbyn out and prevent Tory Leavers moving to UKIP it seems.

    So either choice not great for the country or the economy
    You still haven't responded to the question I have now asked twice today of you.

    How do you stop planes being grounded, log jams at ports, Airbus, Jaguar Land Rover and others migrating back to Europe, the loss of EU wide health cover and non visa travel . How are you proposing to prevent the markets and currencies crashing and investment pouring out of the Country as you so often warn us would happen under Corbyn

    I am so interested in your answer as to date, not one Brexiteer has made the argument
    Well if we agree a transition deal but no FTA is forthcoming we have plenty of time to prepare before it ends
    Still no answer. You really need to provide one whether you think it is a soft or hard Brexit
    Ultimately if it is hard Brexit we simply go to WTO terms and of course remember most of our exports now let alone our whole economy do not depend on trade with the EU
    but how many of these non-EU exports are by companies like Airbus, JLR, etc whose supply lines would be destroyed by a WTO Brexit?
    Why would their supply chains be destroyed by WYO brexit?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    HYUFD said:

    rpjs said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    If the end result of Brexit is a Corbyn government, I will officially regret my Leave vote.

    These polls are dire for the Tories. Theresa May is far, far worse than Brown or Major. She has to go, but when? I suppose Tories must let her deliver her awful Brexit, then sack her in April, and blame it all on her.

    But Holy Christ, GET RID OF THIS AUTISTIC COW

    If there was a 2nd referendum right now, I'm not sure how I'd vote. Probably - just about - LEAVE, but bloody hell I am not at all sure.

    It is only a hard Brexit which will keep Corbyn out and prevent Tory Leavers moving to UKIP it seems.

    So either choice not great for the country or the economy
    You still haven't responded to the question I have now asked twice today of you.

    How do you stop planes being grounded, log jams at ports, Airbus, Jaguar Land Rover and others migrating back to Europe, the loss of EU wide health cover and non visa travel . How are you proposing to prevent the markets and currencies crashing and investment pouring out of the Country as you so often warn us would happen under Corbyn

    I am so interested in your answer as to date, not one Brexiteer has made the argument
    Well if we agree a transition deal but no FTA is forthcoming we have plenty of time to prepare before it ends
    Still no answer. You really need to provide one whether you think it is a soft or hard Brexit
    Ultimately if it is hard Brexit we simply go to WTO terms and of course remember most of our exports now let alone our whole economy do not depend on trade with the EU
    but how many of these non-EU exports are by companies like Airbus, JLR, etc whose supply lines would be destroyed by a WTO Brexit?
    Airbus for starters is a French company
    With 160,000 UK jobs in the business and supply chain. Macron wants the wings back in the EU and the Brexiteers are happy to sacrifice them on the altar of a nonsense US Trade deal with Trump.
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    Quote: Labour surges into a five-point lead over Tories, in a @DeltapollUK poll for The Sun on Sunday tomorrow.


    Labour are static. Con have lost 5 points. UKIP up 5points

    UKIP (pre-ref) used to amble along in low teens.


    As the impact of Mrs May's betrayl accelerates, the Tories are heading for the low thirties / high twenties. At a guess, Labour much less affected.

    Should concentrate some minds..








  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,701
    HYUFD said:



    Not to Corbyn no. Indeed last week's Survation gave Mogg a higher net approval rating than any other Tory leadership contender. If a handful go LD so be it

    The poll that showed 'Imagine there were a General Election tomorrow. Would you be more or less likely to vote Conservative if each of the following replaced Theresa May as leader of the Conservative Party?'


    JRM net minus 7%.
  • William_HWilliam_H Posts: 346
    One thing that seems to definitely shift the polls is open criticism by senior ministers. Corbyn fell to his nadir when his shadow cabinet all resigned, May is losing ground because of Johnson and Davis.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414

    HYUFD said:

    rpjs said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    If the end result of Brexit is a Corbyn government, I will officially regret my Leave vote.

    These polls are dire for the Tories. Theresa May is far, far worse than Brown or Major. She has to go, but when? I suppose Tories must let her deliver her awful Brexit, then sack her in April, and blame it all on her.

    But Holy Christ, GET RID OF THIS AUTISTIC COW

    If there was a 2nd referendum right now, I'm not sure how I'd vote. Probably - just about - LEAVE, but bloody hell I am not at all sure.

    It is only a hard Brexit which will keep Corbyn out and prevent Tory Leavers moving to UKIP it seems.

    So either choice not great for the country or the economy
    You still haven't responded to the question I have now asked twice today of you.

    How do you stop planes being grounded, log jams at ports, Airbus, Jaguar Land Rover and others migrating back to Europe, the loss of EU wide health cover and non visa travel . How are you proposing to prevent the markets and currencies crashing and investment pouring out of the Country as you so often warn us would happen under Corbyn

    I am so interested in your answer as to date, not one Brexiteer has made the argument
    Well if we agree a transition deal but no FTA is forthcoming we have plenty of time to prepare before it ends
    Still no answer. You really need to provide one whether you think it is a soft or hard Brexit
    Ultimately if it is hard Brexit we simply go to WTO terms and of course remember most of our exports now let alone our whole economy do not depend on trade with the EU
    but how many of these non-EU exports are by companies like Airbus, JLR, etc whose supply lines would be destroyed by a WTO Brexit?
    Airbus for starters is a French company
    With 160,000 UK jobs in the business and supply chain. Macron wants the wings back in the EU and the Brexiteers are happy to sacrifice them on the altar of a nonsense US Trade deal with Trump.
    Someething told me you might pick up on that point. ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212

    HYUFD said:



    Not to Corbyn no. Indeed last week's Survation gave Mogg a higher net approval rating than any other Tory leadership contender. If a handful go LD so be it

    The poll that showed 'Imagine there were a General Election tomorrow. Would you be more or less likely to vote Conservative if each of the following replaced Theresa May as leader of the Conservative Party?'


    JRM net minus 7%.
    Which was still better than Hunt, Boris, Gove, Williamson, Javid and Mordaunt did.

    Most polls gave Corbyn a net negative before the 2015 Labour leadership vote but what he proved was it matters less if you get your supporters and your base out
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,222
    Looks like a real shift in the polling with the two latest credible polls being similiarly dire for the Tories.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,394
    shiney2 said:

    Quote: Labour surges into a five-point lead over Tories, in a @DeltapollUK poll for The Sun on Sunday tomorrow.


    Labour are static. Con have lost 5 points. UKIP up 5points

    UKIP (pre-ref) used to amble along in low teens.


    As the impact of Mrs May's betrayl accelerates, the Tories are heading for the low thirties / high twenties. At a guess, Labour much less affected.

    Should concentrate some minds..


    The last Delta Poll was 41/41, so that suggest 41/36.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    rpjs said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    If the end result of Brexit is a Corbyn government, I will officially regret my Leave vote.

    These polls are dire for the Tories. Theresa May is far, far worse than Brown or Major. She has to go, but when? I suppose Tories must let her deliver her awful Brexit, then sack her in April, and blame it all on her.

    But Holy Christ, GET RID OF THIS AUTISTIC COW

    If there was a 2nd referendum right now, I'm not sure how I'd vote. Probably - just about - LEAVE, but bloody hell I am not at all sure.

    It is only a hard Brexit which will keep Corbyn out and prevent Tory Leavers moving to UKIP it seems.

    So either choice not great for the country or the economy
    You still haven't responded to the question I have now asked twice today of you.

    How do you stop planes being grounded, log jams at ports, Airbus, Jaguar Land Rover and others migrating back to Europe, the loss of EU wide health cover and non visa travel . How are you proposing to prevent the markets and currencies crashing and investment pouring out of the Country as you so often warn us would happen under Corbyn

    I am so interested in your answer as to date, not one Brexiteer has made the argument
    Well if we agree a transition deal but no FTA is forthcoming we have plenty of time to prepare before it ends
    Still no answer. You really need to provide one whether you think it is a soft or hard Brexit
    Ultimately if it is hard Brexit we simply go to WTO terms and of course remember most of our exports now let alone our whole economy do not depend on trade with the EU
    but how many of these non-EU exports are by companies like Airbus, JLR, etc whose supply lines would be destroyed by a WTO Brexit?
    Airbus for starters is a French company
    With 160,000 UK jobs in the business and supply chain. Macron wants the wings back in the EU and the Brexiteers are happy to sacrifice them on the altar of a nonsense US Trade deal with Trump.
    Someething told me you might pick up on that point. ;)
    To be honest Dixie, HYUFD has gone all UKIP dishing anyone who disagrees with him, even in his party, discarding them to the Lib Dems

    He talks utter nonsense at times and cannot answer my questions on Airbus other than to say they are French without having the nous to realise that Macron is French and wants the wings back
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212
    shiney2 said:

    Quote: Labour surges into a five-point lead over Tories, in a @DeltapollUK poll for The Sun on Sunday tomorrow.


    Labour are static. Con have lost 5 points. UKIP up 5points

    UKIP (pre-ref) used to amble along in low teens.


    As the impact of Mrs May's betrayl accelerates, the Tories are heading for the low thirties / high twenties. At a guess, Labour much less affected.

    Should concentrate some minds..








    Yet another poll confirming the big Tory to UKIP shift post the Chequers Deal, giving Labour the lead without gaining a single point
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited July 2018
    The REAL thing that's causing this (IMO) isn't so much the compromise deal... It's the humiliation of the Brexiteers by May and Robbins.

    The Chequers deal hasn't been sold as "compromise" from the Cabinet but as a "victory" for Remain - Theresa forgot that those Brexiteers in her Cabinet were there to represent the millions of decent Con voters and members who voted Leave.

    When she started humiliating the Brexiteers in her Cabinet she started humiliating Leave voters... And that after she took them for fools and spent two years stringing them along.

    The fact the deal is shit is just the icing on the cake.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,394
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Anyone seen the telegraph article with comments from Steve Baker? Explosive stuff. Think the Tories are finished unless May goes.

    How does her going now help? There seems a lot of confusion over why they are taking hits in polling to my view. This 'It's May' approach seems to ignore why May is doing what she is doing - a hopelessly divided party and a damn difficult negotiation to try to resolve. She's done a pretty bad job of it in fairness. But replace May with Boris and see how his no deal/hard brexit goes down, with the internal fights certain to still take place given we have a Cabinet of Tory MPs supporting something else already, and they would still be in big trouble.

    May has made things worse by dithering, but she is a symptom of the problem. If replacing her was all it would take to 'save' the party, they surely really would have done it already.

    They haven't. Why? Because it wouldn't solve their problems.
    Sorry but the Tories have lost 6% within a week after switching from a hard Brexit to a soft Brexit platform. May or no May the root of the polling problem is clear
    Sorry, but they didn't switch to a soft b.
    HYUFD speaks as if the party has gone all UKIP.

    There are a good 200 - 230 conservative MP's who will fight a hard Brexit thankfully.

    May has tried to come out with a solution but both extremes want a full extreme result.

    She could be replaced, indeed she couod resign, but to use her words ' nothing changes'

    What a total mess
    Look Big G. We have had 3 polls since this Chequers Deal all of which have Labour ahead and the Tories down and UKIP up.

    So it is not so much the party has gone all UKIP but many of the party's voters have gone to UKIP.

    If it does not get them back Corbyn will be PM while we will still be out of the single market.

    End of conversation
    Does it not occur that some Conservatives might fall away if the party as a whole adopts the stance of JRM?
    Not to Corbyn no. Indeed last week's Survation gave Mogg a higher net approval rating than any other Tory leadership contender. If a handful go LD so be it
    A large majority of Conservatives support Brexit. It doesn't follow they support the kind of Brexit espoused by JRM.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    GIN1138 said:

    The REAL thing that's causing this (IMO) isn't so much the compromise deal... It's the humiliation of the Brexiteers by May and Robbins.

    The Chequers deal hasn't been sold as "compromise" from the Cabinet but as a "victory" for Remain - Theresa forgot that those Brexiteers in her Cabinet were there to represent the millions of decent Con voters and members how voted Leave.

    When she started humiliating the Brexiteers in her Cabinet she started humiliating Leave voters... And that after she took them for fools and spent two years stringing them along.

    The fact the deal is shit is just the icing on the calke.

    Correct, the spectator has reported that the Brexiteers at the meeting were disputing points and May said "You can not change that, I have agreed it with Angela."
    Merkle has first dibs before the UK cabinet. Just disgraceful.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212
    edited July 2018

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    rpjs said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    If the end result of Brexit is a Corbyn government, I will officially regret my Leave vote.

    These polls are dire for the Tories. Theresa May is far, far worse than Brown or Major. She has to go, but when? I suppose Tories must let her deliver her awful Brexit, then sack her in April, and blame it all on her.

    But Holy Christ, GET RID OF THIS AUTISTIC COW

    If there was a 2nd referendum right now, I'm not sure how I'd vote. Probably - just about - LEAVE, but bloody hell I am not at all sure.

    It is only a hard Brexit which will keep Corbyn out and prevent Tory Leavers moving to UKIP it seems.

    So either choice not great for the country or the economy
    You still haven't responded to the question I have now asked twice today
    I am so interested in your answer as to date, not one Brexiteer has made the argument
    Well if we agree a transition deal but no FTA is forthcoming we have plenty of time to prepare before it ends
    Still no answer. You really need to provide one whether you think it is a soft or hard Brexit
    Ultimately if it is hard Brexit we simply go to WTO terms and of course remember most of our exports now let alone our whole economy do not depend on trade with the EU
    but how many of these non-EU exports are by companies like Airbus, JLR, etc whose supply lines would be destroyed by a WTO Brexit?
    Airbus for starters is a French company
    With 160,000 UK jobs in the business and supply chain. Macron wants the wings back in the EU and the Brexiteers are happy to sacrifice them on the altar of a nonsense US Trade deal with Trump.
    Someething told me you might pick up on that point. ;)
    To be honest Dixie, HYUFD has gone all UKIP dishing anyone who disagrees with him, even in his party, discarding them to the Lib Dems

    He talks utter nonsense at times and cannot answer my questions on Airbus other than to say they are French without having the nous to realise that Macron is French and wants the wings back
    Well of course Macron wants them back and if Airbus go all poncey boots and say they will shift back to France unless it is BINO then fine, they can go back to France, they are a company with an HQ in Toulouse after all
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,629
    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like a real shift in the polling with the two latest credible polls being similiarly dire for the Tories.

    Dire for Theresa May for sure. Watch those letters go in once she has to engage with the EU. Who will bank her offer and want more. And that is her best case.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    GIN1138 said:

    The REAL thing that's causing this (IMO) isn't so much the compromise deal... It's the humiliation of the Brexiteers by May and Robbins.

    The Chequers deal hasn't been sold as "compromise" from the Cabinet but as a "victory" for Remain - Theresa forgot that those Brexiteers in her Cabinet were there to represent the millions of decent Con voters and members who voted Leave.

    When she started humiliating the Brexiteers in her Cabinet she started humiliating Leave voters... And that after she took them for fools and spent two years stringing them along.

    The fact the deal is shit is just the icing on the cake.

    You are certainly describing my own feelings before I actually have understood them. That is it 100%.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Wonder if she could lance some of this be very publicly firing Olly Robbins?

    I'm sure he'd be happy to take one for Team Theresa? :D
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,903
    Sean_F said:

    shiney2 said:

    Quote: Labour surges into a five-point lead over Tories, in a @DeltapollUK poll for The Sun on Sunday tomorrow.


    Labour are static. Con have lost 5 points. UKIP up 5points

    UKIP (pre-ref) used to amble along in low teens.


    As the impact of Mrs May's betrayl accelerates, the Tories are heading for the low thirties / high twenties. At a guess, Labour much less affected.

    Should concentrate some minds..


    The last Delta Poll was 41/41, so that suggest 41/36.
    They're not listed in the Wikipedia list:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    GIN1138 said:

    Wonder if she could lance some of this be very publicly firing Olly Robbins?

    I'm sure he'd be happy to take one for Team Theresa? :D

    Good idea. 8 months before we crash out of the EU fire the architect of the only coherent plan. Sure that will strengthen our hand.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited July 2018
    The ERG do not have the balls, the wit, or the numbers to challenge May.

    Polling puts on more pressure, but let’s be honest, we are mid-term and in the ninth year of Tory or Tory-led government, so nothing to get over excited about.

    May’s strategy is to get her Withdrawal Agreement passed, deliver Brexit, then ride off into the sunset. We will be none the wiser on what Brexit means, but that won’t matter. Brexit will have been delivered.

    The ERG have no alternative. They can vote down the Deal, but that simply means May will need to rely on rebel Labour moderates and possibly concede a referendum.

    If the ERG want a different Brexit they should face spent less time accusing everyone of treachery and more time figuring out a plan. The likes of HYUFD and the (now banned?) Max STILL haven’t learned this lesson.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Fascinating thread. The Ungovernable versus the Unelectable. It's difficult to know which way it'll go. If tomorrow's stories are correct Mrs May REALLY is in trouble. Brexit could be turned over and the Tory Party could split in two. Would that push the voters into the arms of Corbyn? A leader who offers no more than a pig in a poke?

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    HYUFD said:

    rpjs said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    If the end result of Brexit is a Corbyn government, I will officially regret my Leave vote.

    These polls are dire for the Tories. Theresa May is far, far worse than Brown or Major. She has to go, but when? I suppose Tories must let her deliver her awful Brexit, then sack her in April, and blame it all on her.

    But Holy Christ, GET RID OF THIS AUTISTIC COW

    If there was a 2nd referendum right now, I'm not sure how I'd vote. Probably - just about - LEAVE, but bloody hell I am not at all sure.

    It is only a hard Brexit which will keep Corbyn out and prevent Tory Leavers moving to UKIP it seems.

    So either choice not great for the country or the economy
    You still haven't responded to the question I have now asked twice today of you.

    How do you stop planes being grounded, log jams at ports, Airbus, Jaguar Land Rover and others migrating back to Europe, the loss of EU wide health cover and non visa travel . How are you proposing to prevent the markets and currencies crashing and investment pouring out of the Country as you so often warn us would happen under Corbyn

    I am so interested in your answer as to date, not one Brexiteer has made the argument
    Well if we agree a transition deal but no FTA is forthcoming we have plenty of time to prepare before it ends
    Still no answer. You really need to provide one whether you think it is a soft or hard Brexit
    Ultimately if it is hard Brexit we simply go to WTO terms and of course remember most of our exports now let alone our whole economy do not depend on trade with the EU
    but how many of these non-EU exports are by companies like Airbus, JLR, etc whose supply lines would be destroyed by a WTO Brexit?
    Airbus for starters is a French company
    With 160,000 UK jobs in the business and supply chain. Macron wants the wings back in the EU and the Brexiteers are happy to sacrifice them on the altar of a nonsense US Trade deal with Trump.
    https://www.airbus.com/be-an-airbus-supplier.html

    Less heat more light needed
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    dixiedean said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Wonder if she could lance some of this be very publicly firing Olly Robbins?

    I'm sure he'd be happy to take one for Team Theresa? :D

    Good idea. 8 months before we crash out of the EU fire the architect of the only coherent plan. Sure that will strengthen our hand.
    Well the plan is there now... Pretty much ANYONE in government or civil service can see it through. Doesn't have to be this Robbins chap... Theresa has got to do something to lance this cluster **** she's created.

    Remember when Ali Campbell stood down because he'd "become to story" after Dr Kelly died? Robbins is surely in a similar situation now.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,394

    Sean_F said:

    shiney2 said:

    Quote: Labour surges into a five-point lead over Tories, in a @DeltapollUK poll for The Sun on Sunday tomorrow.


    Labour are static. Con have lost 5 points. UKIP up 5points

    UKIP (pre-ref) used to amble along in low teens.


    As the impact of Mrs May's betrayl accelerates, the Tories are heading for the low thirties / high twenties. At a guess, Labour much less affected.

    Should concentrate some minds..


    The last Delta Poll was 41/41, so that suggest 41/36.
    They're not listed in the Wikipedia list:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
    They aren't very high profile.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826



    To be honest Dixie, HYUFD has gone all UKIP dishing anyone who disagrees with him, even in his party, discarding them to the Lib Dems

    He talks utter nonsense at times and cannot answer my questions on Airbus other than to say they are French without having the nous to realise that Macron is French and wants the wings back

    And who owns Airbus? Macron as French President is a large shareholder isn't he? Airbus is a very political company.

    Even if we sacrifice our ability to make trade deals on the altar of giving Airbus the deal they want what guarantees do we have that they won't still just piss off any way? How can we know they won't move wings regardless?

    Leaving us with no Airbus, no control and no ability to make deals.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    rpjs said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    I

    It is only a hard Brexit which will keep Corbyn out and prevent Tory Leavers moving to UKIP it seems.

    So either choice not great for the country or the economy
    You still haven't responded to the question I have now asked twice today
    I am so interested in your answer as to date, not one Brexiteer has made the argument
    Well if we agree a transition deal but no FTA is forthcoming we have plenty of time to prepare before it ends
    Still no answer. You really need to provide one whether you think it is a soft or hard Brexit
    Ultimately if it is hard Brexit we simply go to WTO terms and of course remember most of our exports now let alone our whole economy do not depend on trade with the EU
    but how many of these non-EU exports are by companies like Airbus, JLR, etc whose supply lines would be destroyed by a WTO Brexit?
    Airbus for starters is a French company
    With 160,000 UK jobs in the business and supply chain. Macron wants the wings back in the EU and the Brexiteers are happy to sacrifice them on the altar of a nonsense US Trade deal with Trump.
    Someething told me you might pick up on that point. ;)
    To be honest Dixie, HYUFD has gone all UKIP dishing anyone who disagrees with him, even in his party, discarding them to the Lib Dems

    He talks utter nonsense at times and cannot answer my questions on Airbus other than to say they are French without having the nous to realise that Macron is French and wants the wings back
    Well of course Macron wants them back and if Airbus go all poncey boots and say they will shift back to France unless it is BINO then fine, they can go back to France, they are a company with an HQ in Toulouse after all
    That last sentence proves you have no care for jobs or communiies and will go down like a bucket of sick with the workers

    I hope your comments are widely condemned

    You have gone all Adonis. Shameful
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293

    The ERG do not have the balls, the wit, or the numbers to challenge May.

    Polling puts on more pressure, but let’s be honest, we are mid-term and in the ninth year of Tory or Tory-led government, so nothing to get over excited about.

    It's more than just polling. Con members are absolutely furious (and quitting in droves) at what's happening.

    This is now an existential crisis for the Conservative Party.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212
    edited July 2018

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    rpjs said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    SeanT said:

    I

    It is only a hard Brexit which will keep Corbyn out and prevent Tory Leavers moving to UKIP it seems.

    So either choice not great for the country or the economy
    You still haven't responded to the question I have now asked twice today
    I am so interested in your answer as to date, not one Brexiteer has made the argument
    Well if we agree a transition deal but no FTA is forthcoming we have plenty of time to prepare before it ends
    Still no answer. You really need to provide one whether you think it is a soft or hard Brexit
    Ultimately if it is hard Brexit we simply go to WTO terms and of course remember most of our exports now let alone our whole economy do not depend on trade with the EU
    but how many of these non-EU exports are by companies like Airbus, JLR, etc whose supply lines would be destroyed by a WTO Brexit?
    Airbus for starters is a French company
    With 160,000 UK jobs in the business and supply chain. Macron wants the wings back in the EU and the Brexiteers are happy to sacrifice them on the altar of a nonsense US Trade deal with Trump.
    Someething told me you might pick up on that point. ;)
    To be honest Dixie, HYUFD has gone all UKIP dishing anyone who disagrees with him, even in his party, discarding them to the Lib Dems

    He talks utter nonsense at times and cannot answer my questions on Airbus other than to say they are French without having the nous to realise that Macron is French and wants the wings back
    Well of course Macron wants them back and if Airbus go all poncey boots and say they will shift back to France unless it is BINO then fine, they can go back to France, they are a company with an HQ in Toulouse after all
    That last sentence proves you have no care for jobs or communiies and will go down like a bucket of sick with the workers

    I hope your comments are widely condemned

    You have gone all Adonis. Shameful
    No it shows that I have respect for the 17 million who voted to leave the EU to regain sovereignty and reduce immigration despite endless warnings from Big Business about economic Armageddon and that Brexit will not be reversed because of blackmail from French based corporations
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,394
    GIN1138 said:

    The ERG do not have the balls, the wit, or the numbers to challenge May.

    Polling puts on more pressure, but let’s be honest, we are mid-term and in the ninth year of Tory or Tory-led government, so nothing to get over excited about.

    It's more than just polling. Con members are absolutely furious (and quitting in droves) at what's happening.

    This is now an existential crisis for the Conservative Party.
    Judging by this week's polling, most Conservatives are sticking with the Conservative party
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212



    To be honest Dixie, HYUFD has gone all UKIP dishing anyone who disagrees with him, even in his party, discarding them to the Lib Dems

    He talks utter nonsense at times and cannot answer my questions on Airbus other than to say they are French without having the nous to realise that Macron is French and wants the wings back

    And who owns Airbus? Macron as French President is a large shareholder isn't he? Airbus is a very political company.

    Even if we sacrifice our ability to make trade deals on the altar of giving Airbus the deal they want what guarantees do we have that they won't still just piss off any way? How can we know they won't move wings regardless?

    Leaving us with no Airbus, no control and no ability to make deals.
    Exactly, Macron as the largest shareholder no doubt has been whispering in the ear of the Airbus CEO to be as gloomy as possible about their investments in the UK if it is not BINO
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Sean_F said:

    GIN1138 said:

    The ERG do not have the balls, the wit, or the numbers to challenge May.

    Polling puts on more pressure, but let’s be honest, we are mid-term and in the ninth year of Tory or Tory-led government, so nothing to get over excited about.

    It's more than just polling. Con members are absolutely furious (and quitting in droves) at what's happening.

    This is now an existential crisis for the Conservative Party.
    Judging by this week's polling, most Conservatives are sticking with the Conservative party
    Let's see where we are in six months...
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    GIN1138 said:

    The ERG do not have the balls, the wit, or the numbers to challenge May.

    Polling puts on more pressure, but let’s be honest, we are mid-term and in the ninth year of Tory or Tory-led government, so nothing to get over excited about.

    It's more than just polling. Con members are absolutely furious (and quitting in droves) at what's happening.

    This is now an existential crisis for the Conservative Party.
    All I can say, is me and all my trad Tory voting mates, ain't voting Tory until she's gone.

    She is the human expression of the lunancy of expecting a different outcome when you repeat the same actions. Election cock up. Brexit cock up. Destroy the party next.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212
    edited July 2018
    Roger said:

    Fascinating thread. The Ungovernable versus the Unelectable. It's difficult to know which way it'll go. If tomorrow's stories are correct Mrs May REALLY is in trouble. Brexit could be turned over and the Tory Party could split in two. Would that push the voters into the arms of Corbyn? A leader who offers no more than a pig in a poke?

    A Corbyn government would of course solve nothing given he would keep us out of the single market anyway and be squeezed between his pro EEA backbenchers and a likely hard Brexiteer Tory Leader of the Opposition
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,044
    GIN1138 said:

    The ERG do not have the balls, the wit, or the numbers to challenge May.

    Polling puts on more pressure, but let’s be honest, we are mid-term and in the ninth year of Tory or Tory-led government, so nothing to get over excited about.

    It's more than just polling. Con members are absolutely furious (and quitting in droves) at what's happening.

    This is now an existential crisis for the Conservative Party.
    Happy Days!

    I think the Tories need to get some perspective. It's only the EU ffs. Not worth destroying your party over.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161


    To be honest Dixie, HYUFD has gone all UKIP dishing anyone who disagrees with him, even in his party, discarding them to the Lib Dems

    He talks utter nonsense at times and cannot answer my questions on Airbus other than to say they are French without having the nous to realise that Macron is French and wants the wings back



    Well of course Macron wants them back and if Airbus go all poncey boots and say they will shift back to France unless it is BINO then fine, they can go back to France, they are a company with an HQ in Toulouse after all


    That last sentence proves you have no care for jobs or communiies and will go down like a bucket of sick with the workers

    I hope your comments are widely condemned

    You have gone all Adonis. Shameful



    No it shows that I have respect for the 17 million who voted to leave the EU to regain sovereignty and reduce immigration despite endless warnings from Big Business about economic Armageddon and that Brexit will not be reversed because of blackmail from French based corporations



    You have no respect for jobs to be sacrificed on the altar of a non existent sun lit upland.

    I will fight for TM deal but if she goes I will join the movement to remain, unless you and your ilk can show me a path through a hard Brexit, but not just with the platitude WTO.

    And yes my party is in a crisis tearing itself apart over Brexit but it is going to end up in the widnerness for years to come if it cannot compromise its views.

    So terribly sad
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Fascinating thread. The Ungovernable versus the Unelectable. It's difficult to know which way it'll go. If tomorrow's stories are correct Mrs May REALLY is in trouble. Brexit could be turned over and the Tory Party could split in two. Would that push the voters into the arms of Corbyn? A leader who offers no more than a pig in a poke?

    A Corbyn government would of course solve nothing given he would keep us out of the single market anyway and be squeezed between his pro EEA backbenchers and a likely hard Brexiteer Tory Leader of the Opposition
    You are going the way to get a Corbyn government elected
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    Yorkcity said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:



    How does her going now help? There seems a lot of confusion over why they are taking hits in polling to my view. This 'It's May' approach seems to ignore why May is doing what she is doing - a hopelessly divided party and a damn difficult negotiation to try to resolve. She's done a pretty bad job of it in fairness. But replace May with Boris and see how his no deal/hard brexit goes down, with the internal fights certain to still take place given we have a Cabinet of Tory MPs supporting something else already, and they would still be in big trouble.

    May has made things worse by dithering, but she is a symptom of the problem. If replacing her was all it would take to 'save' the party, they surely really would have done it already.

    They haven't. Why? Because it wouldn't solve their problems.

    Sorry but the Tories have lost 6% within a week after switching from a hard Brexit to a soft Brexit platform. May or no May the root of the polling problem is clear
    Sorry, but they didn't switch to a soft brexit - they hadn't agreed a position prior to then. That was the big failure of May this year, the indecision. Whatever noises she may have made before, Chequers was about being no deal/ hard brexit, so do the country, so why are they permitting May to delude herself that her deal is possible?

    A contest may well come, but there's no excuse for why it has not already occurred if the rhetoric of the harder leavers is sincere, and if you are right about how popular it would be.
    HYUFD speaks as if the party has gone all UKIP.

    There are a good 200 - 230 conservative MP's who will fight a hard Brexit thankfully.

    May has tried to come out with a solution but both extremes want a full extreme result.

    She could be replaced, indeed she couod resign, but to use her words ' nothing changes'

    What a total mess
    Look Big G. We have had 3 polls since this Chequers Deal all of which have Labour ahead and the Tories down and UKIP up.

    So it is not so much the party has gone all UKIP but many of the party's voters have gone to UKIP.

    If it does not get them back Corbyn will be PM while we will still be out of the single market.

    End of conversation
    I do not want to fall out with you but this is heading for a second vote
    Is there a chance , May might get her chequres deal through parliament with opposition help.
    Also would enhance her position by acting in the national interest.
    There is a chance, but if the Tories continue to sink in the polls, Labour will find it hard to resist putting the knife in.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Fascinating thread. The Ungovernable versus the Unelectable. It's difficult to know which way it'll go. If tomorrow's stories are correct Mrs May REALLY is in trouble. Brexit could be turned over and the Tory Party could split in two. Would that push the voters into the arms of Corbyn? A leader who offers no more than a pig in a poke?

    A Corbyn government would of course solve nothing given he would keep us out of the single market anyway and be squeezed between his pro EEA backbenchers and a likely hard Brexiteer Tory Leader of the Opposition
    I don't think Corbyn can win a majority, it would be a coalition with the SNP and Plaid. Not sure how long it would last.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Fascinating thread. The Ungovernable versus the Unelectable. It's difficult to know which way it'll go. If tomorrow's stories are correct Mrs May REALLY is in trouble. Brexit could be turned over and the Tory Party could split in two. Would that push the voters into the arms of Corbyn? A leader who offers no more than a pig in a poke?

    A Corbyn government would of course solve nothing given he would keep us out of the single market anyway and be squeezed between his pro EEA backbenchers and a likely hard Brexiteer Tory Leader of the Opposition
    You are going the way to get a Corbyn government elected
    No you are. As all the polling showing Labour ahead has come after the Chequers Deal and because Tory Leave voters have gone to UKIP
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    Rather ironic that the Tory Party now has the opposite problem to Labour. The members want the leader out but don't have the MP's to do it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212
    edited July 2018



    To be honest Dixie, HYUFD has gone all UKIP dishing anyone who disagrees with him, even in his party, discarding them to the Lib Dems

    He talks utter nonsense at times and cannot answer my questions on Airbus other than to say they are French without having the nous to realise that Macron is French and wants the wings back



    Well of course Macron wants them back and if Airbus go all poncey boots and say they will shift back to France unless it is BINO then fine, they can go back to France, they are a company with an HQ in Toulouse after all


    That last sentence proves you have no care for jobs or communiies and will go down like a bucket of sick with the workers

    I hope your comments are widely condemned

    You have gone all Adonis. Shameful



    No it shows that I have respect for the 17 million who voted to leave the EU to regain sovereignty and reduce immigration despite endless warnings from Big Business about economic Armageddon and that Brexit will not be reversed because of blackmail from French based corporations



    You have no respect for jobs to be sacrificed on the altar of a non existent sun lit upland.

    I will fight for TM deal but if she goes I will join the movement to remain, unless you and your ilk can show me a path through a hard Brexit, but not just with the platitude WTO.

    And yes my party is in a crisis tearing itself apart over Brexit but it is going to end up in the widnerness for years to come if it cannot compromise its views.

    So terribly sad

    Its view is to respect the Leave vote which won the referendum.

    The only point of a BINO deal is if it gets a FTA from the EU and there is as yet no evidence of that and I do not expect it anytime soon
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Fascinating thread. The Ungovernable versus the Unelectable. It's difficult to know which way it'll go. If tomorrow's stories are correct Mrs May REALLY is in trouble. Brexit could be turned over and the Tory Party could split in two. Would that push the voters into the arms of Corbyn? A leader who offers no more than a pig in a poke?

    A Corbyn government would of course solve nothing given he would keep us out of the single market anyway and be squeezed between his pro EEA backbenchers and a likely hard Brexiteer Tory Leader of the Opposition
    You are going the way to get a Corbyn government elected
    No you are. As all the polling showing Labour ahead has come after the Chequers Deal and because Tory Leave voters have gone to UKIP
    Why am I - I will not sell my soul to UKIP
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    The ERG do not have the balls, the wit, or the numbers to challenge May.

    Polling puts on more pressure, but let’s be honest, we are mid-term and in the ninth year of Tory or Tory-led government, so nothing to get over excited about.

    May’s strategy is to get her Withdrawal Agreement passed, deliver Brexit, then ride off into the sunset. We will be none the wiser on what Brexit means, but that won’t matter. Brexit will have been delivered.

    The ERG have no alternative. They can vote down the Deal, but that simply means May will need to rely on rebel Labour moderates and possibly concede a referendum.

    If the ERG want a different Brexit they should face spent less time accusing everyone of treachery and more time figuring out a plan. The likes of HYUFD and the (now banned?) Max STILL haven’t learned this lesson.

    And you STILL have not learned to stop telling lies.

    The Leaver plan was set out in full detail in the DexEU white paper. It is also the same plan that DD discussed in public many tims, before Remainer May double crossed him. It is a plan that is far more likely to be acceptable to the EU than May’s desperate attempts to recreate EU membership.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Fascinating thread. The Ungovernable versus the Unelectable. It's difficult to know which way it'll go. If tomorrow's stories are correct Mrs May REALLY is in trouble. Brexit could be turned over and the Tory Party could split in two. Would that push the voters into the arms of Corbyn? A leader who offers no more than a pig in a poke?

    A Corbyn government would of course solve nothing given he would keep us out of the single market anyway and be squeezed between his pro EEA backbenchers and a likely hard Brexiteer Tory Leader of the Opposition
    I don't think Corbyn can win a majority.
    What makes you say that?

    Of course Corbyn could win a majority...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Fascinating thread. The Ungovernable versus the Unelectable. It's difficult to know which way it'll go. If tomorrow's stories are correct Mrs May REALLY is in trouble. Brexit could be turned over and the Tory Party could split in two. Would that push the voters into the arms of Corbyn? A leader who offers no more than a pig in a poke?

    A Corbyn government would of course solve nothing given he would keep us out of the single market anyway and be squeezed between his pro EEA backbenchers and a likely hard Brexiteer Tory Leader of the Opposition
    I don't think Corbyn can win a majority, it would be a coalition with the SNP and Plaid. Not sure how long it would last.
    May even add in the Greens too, possibly even the LDs.

    It would be swapping a weak government for an even weaker one
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    edited July 2018
    dixiedean said:

    Rather ironic that the Tory Party now has the opposite problem to Labour. The members want the leader out but don't have the MP's to do it.

    Very true
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    HYUFD said:



    To be honest Dixie, HYUFD has gone all UKIP dishing anyone who disagrees with him, even in his party, discarding them to the Lib Dems

    He talks utter nonsense at times and cannot answer my questions on Airbus other than to say they are French without having the nous to realise that Macron is French and wants the wings back



    Well of course Macron wants them back and if Airbus go all poncey boots and say they will shift back to France unless it is BINO then fine, they can go back to France, they are a company with an HQ in Toulouse after all

    That last sentence proves you have no care for jobs or communiies and will go down like a bucket of sick with the workers

    I hope your comments are widely condemned

    You have gone all Adonis. Shameful



    No it shows that I have respect for the 17 million who voted to leave the EU to regain sovereignty and reduce immigration despite endless warnings from Big Business about economic Armageddon and that Brexit will not be reversed because of blackmail from French based corporations



    You have no respect for jobs to be sacrificed on the altar of a non existent sun lit upland.

    I will fight for TM deal but if she goes I will join the movement to remain, unless you and your ilk can show me a path through a hard Brexit, but not just with the platitude WTO.

    And yes my party is in a crisis tearing itself apart over Brexit but it is going to end up in the widnerness for years to come if it cannot compromise its views.

    So terribly sad

    Its view is to respect the Leave vote which won the referendum.

    The only point of a BINO deal is if it gets a FTA from the EU and thrrecis as yet no evidence of that and I do not expect it anytime soon

    The leave vote did not endorse the trashing of our manufacturing base by any degree
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212
    edited July 2018

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Fascinating thread. The Ungovernable versus the Unelectable. It's difficult to know which way it'll go. If tomorrow's stories are correct Mrs May REALLY is in trouble. Brexit could be turned over and the Tory Party could split in two. Would that push the voters into the arms of Corbyn? A leader who offers no more than a pig in a poke?

    A Corbyn government would of course solve nothing given he would keep us out of the single market anyway and be squeezed between his pro EEA backbenchers and a likely hard Brexiteer Tory Leader of the Opposition
    You are going the way to get a Corbyn government elected
    No you are. As all the polling showing Labour ahead has come after the Chequers Deal and because Tory Leave voters have gone to UKIP
    Why am I - I will not sell my soul to UKIP
    Either the Tories win back UKIP voters or Corbyn becomes PM.

    If you really cannot stand a hard Brexit Tory Party which may become inevitable if the EU refuse a FTA based on May's proposals then you might be better off in the LDs for the foreseeable future
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161

    The ERG do not have the balls, the wit, or the numbers to challenge May.

    Polling puts on more pressure, but let’s be honest, we are mid-term and in the ninth year of Tory or Tory-led government, so nothing to get over excited about.

    May’s strategy is to get her Withdrawal Agreement passed, deliver Brexit, then ride off into the sunset. We will be none the wiser on what Brexit means, but that won’t matter. Brexit will have been delivered.

    The ERG have no alternative. They can vote down the Deal, but that simply means May will need to rely on rebel Labour moderates and possibly concede a referendum.

    If the ERG want a different Brexit they should face spent less time accusing everyone of treachery and more time figuring out a plan. The likes of HYUFD and the (now banned?) Max STILL haven’t learned this lesson.

    And you STILL have not learned to stop telling lies.

    The Leaver plan was set out in full detail in the DexEU white paper. It is also the same plan that DD discussed in public many tims, before Remainer May double crossed him. It is a plan that is far more likely to be acceptable to the EU than May’s desperate attempts to recreate EU membership.
    You cannot say that with any certainty - indeed May's softer plan may not be accepted
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,906
    GIN1138 said:

    The ERG do not have the balls, the wit, or the numbers to challenge May.

    Polling puts on more pressure, but let’s be honest, we are mid-term and in the ninth year of Tory or Tory-led government, so nothing to get over excited about.

    It's more than just polling. Con members are absolutely furious (and quitting in droves) at what's happening.

    This is now an existential crisis for the Conservative Party.
    To quote Arnold Judas Rimmer: MAAAAAARVELOUS
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Fascinating thread. The Ungovernable versus the Unelectable. It's difficult to know which way it'll go. If tomorrow's stories are correct Mrs May REALLY is in trouble. Brexit could be turned over and the Tory Party could split in two. Would that push the voters into the arms of Corbyn? A leader who offers no more than a pig in a poke?

    A Corbyn government would of course solve nothing given he would keep us out of the single market anyway and be squeezed between his pro EEA backbenchers and a likely hard Brexiteer Tory Leader of the Opposition
    I don't think Corbyn can win a majority, it would be a coalition with the SNP and Plaid. Not sure how long it would last.
    Latest polls imply a hung parliament

    Con 302
    Lab 270
    SNP 40
    LD 16
    PC 3
    Green 1
    NI 18
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,143

    Barnesian said:

    David Wooding

    Verified account

    @DavidWooding


    Labour surges into a five-point lead over Tories, in a @DeltapollUK poll for The Sun on Sunday tomorrow.

    Delta who????
    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/03/12/just-launched-new-pollster-featuring-martn-boon-and-joe-twyman-formerly-of-icm-and-yougov/

  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612
    HYUFD said:

    shiney2 said:

    Quote: Labour surges into a five-point lead over Tories, in a @DeltapollUK poll for The Sun on Sunday tomorrow.


    Labour are static. Con have lost 5 points. UKIP up 5points

    UKIP (pre-ref) used to amble along in low teens.


    As the impact of Mrs May's betrayl accelerates, the Tories are heading for the low thirties / high twenties. At a guess, Labour much less affected.

    Should concentrate some minds.

    Yet another poll confirming the big Tory to UKIP shift post the Chequers Deal, giving Labour the lead without gaining a single point
    Well, I did warn that if the Tories sold out on Brexit the public would turn against them and thus is just the start. Of course, all the Remainers told me that everyone wanted BINO and that nobody really cared and that it wouldn’t make any difference.

    Imagine what will happen if Farage comes back and UKIP actually exist again.

    What the polls DONT show is how many Tories will simply not vote next time around. This will be the killer, especially up against Momentum.

    Watch Tory MPs who were perfectly happy to sell out Brexit suddenly change tack when they realise their seats are at stake...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Fascinating thread. The Ungovernable versus the Unelectable. It's difficult to know which way it'll go. If tomorrow's stories are correct Mrs May REALLY is in trouble. Brexit could be turned over and the Tory Party could split in two. Would that push the voters into the arms of Corbyn? A leader who offers no more than a pig in a poke?

    A Corbyn government would of course solve nothing given he would keep us out of the single market anyway and be squeezed between his pro EEA backbenchers and a likely hard Brexiteer Tory Leader of the Opposition
    You are going the way to get a Corbyn government elected
    No you are. As all the polling showing Labour ahead has come after the Chequers Deal and because Tory Leave voters have gone to UKIP
    Why am I - I will not sell my soul to UKIP
    Either the Tories win back UKIP voters or Corbyn becomes PM.

    If you really cannot stand a hard Brexit Tory Party which may become inevitable if the EU refuse a FTA based on May's proposals then you might be better off in the LDs for the foreseeable future
    I am going nowhere and will fight you from within my party

    There will be no hard Brexit without someone explaining how and you certainly have not got a clue other than rejecting UK Airbus workers on the altar of your obsession
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T

    It's going to be 30 degrees tomorrow at Wimbledon and both players haven't had much time to recover from the previous matches. Would the sensible thing be to move the match to a 5pm start instead of 2pm? The Mixed Doubles final could be played first at 2pm.
  • archer101auarcher101au Posts: 1,612

    The ERG do not have the balls, the wit, or the numbers to challenge May.

    Polling puts on more pressure, but let’s be honest, we are mid-term and in the ninth year of Tory or Tory-led government, so nothing to get over excited about.

    May’s strategy is to get her Withdrawal Agreement passed, deliver Brexit, then ride off into the sunset. We will be none the wiser on what Brexit means, but that won’t matter. Brexit will have been delivered.

    The ERG have no alternative. They can vote down the Deal, but that simply means May will need to rely on rebel Labour moderates and possibly concede a referendum.

    If the ERG want a different Brexit they should face spent less time accusing everyone of treachery and more time figuring out a plan. The likes of HYUFD and the (now banned?) Max STILL haven’t learned this lesson.

    And you STILL have not learned to stop telling lies.

    The Leaver plan was set out in full detail in the DexEU white paper. It is also the same plan that DD discussed in public many tims, before Remainer May double crossed him. It is a plan that is far more likely to be acceptable to the EU than May’s desperate attempts to recreate EU membership.
    You cannot say that with any certainty - indeed May's softer plan may not be accepted
    Well both Barnier and Tusk were on the record as offering a CETA deal and they are both on record saying that cherry picking and trying to separate the four freedoms would be rejected, so....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212

    HYUFD said:

    shiney2 said:

    Quote: Labour surges into a five-point lead over Tories, in a @DeltapollUK poll for The Sun on Sunday tomorrow.


    Labour are static. Con have lost 5 points. UKIP up 5points

    UKIP (pre-ref) used to amble along in low teens.


    As the impact of Mrs May's betrayl accelerates, the Tories are heading for the low thirties / high twenties. At a guess, Labour much less affected.

    Should concentrate some minds.

    Yet another poll confirming the big Tory to UKIP shift post the Chequers Deal, giving Labour the lead without gaining a single point
    Well, I did warn that if the Tories sold out on Brexit the public would turn against them and thus is just the start. Of course, all the Remainers told me that everyone wanted BINO and that nobody really cared and that it wouldn’t make any difference.

    Imagine what will happen if Farage comes back and UKIP actually exist again.

    What the polls DONT show is how many Tories will simply not vote next time around. This will be the killer, especially up against Momentum.

    Watch Tory MPs who were perfectly happy to sell out Brexit suddenly change tack when they realise their seats are at stake...
    Certainly the odds of a future Boris, Mogg or Davis leadership have greatly improved this weekend because of these polls
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    It's going to be 30 degrees tomorrow at Wimbledon and both players haven't had much time to recover from the previous matches. Would the sensible thing be to move the match to a 5pm start instead of 2pm? The Mixed Doubles final could be played first at 2pm.

    TV rights and schedules likelybto prevent that

    And 30% is hot but not unplayable
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    edited July 2018

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Fascinating thread. The Ungovernable versus the Unelectable. It's difficult to know which way it'll go. If tomorrow's stories are correct Mrs May REALLY is in trouble. Brexit could be turned over and the Tory Party could split in two. Would that push the voters into the arms of Corbyn? A leader who offers no more than a pig in a poke?

    A Corbyn government would of course solve nothing given he would keep us out of the single market anyway and be squeezed between his pro EEA backbenchers and a likely hard Brexiteer Tory Leader of the Opposition
    You are going the way to get a Corbyn government elected
    No you are. As all the polling showing Labour ahead has come after the Chequers Deal and because Tory Leave voters have gone to UKIP
    Why am I - I will not sell my soul to UKIP
    Either the Tories win back UKIP voters or Corbyn becomes PM.

    If you really cannot stand a hard Brexit Tory Party which may become inevitable if the EU refuse a FTA based on May's proposals then you might be better off in the LDs for the foreseeable future
    I am going nowhere and will fight you from within my party

    There will be no hard Brexit without someone explaining how and you certainly have not got a clue other than rejecting UK Airbus workers on the altar of your obsession
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/

    Poundland fight
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878
    Stepping away from Brexit for a minute.

    Anyone think Andrew Griffiths will resign as an MP?

    His seat, Burton, has a 10k majority but in these unstable times I'm betting no one is taking anything for granted. His position as an MP *might* be untenable (though probably as untenable as Jarad O'Mara's) but he'll probably have been told he *can't* resign as an MP.

    The government can't afford to lose an MP, even for the time it takes to fight a by-election, so I reckon the good people of Burton are stuck with him till the next GE.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,678
    People are silly tonight. It’s the weather.

    A few polls showing a dip for the govt after ministerial resignations and a tricky decision . Big deal.

    In life the only real evidence that you’ve done something worthwhile, is that someone has complained.

    If no one complains, you probably haven’t done anything yet.

  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052

    dixiedean said:

    Rather ironic that the Tory Party now has the opposite problem to Labour. The members want the leader out but don't have the MP's to do it.

    Very true
    There must be 48+ MPs who want her out; I suppose they're deciding what the right timing is. Of course there wouldn't be much point, Brexitwise, if she was replaced by the likes of Javid, so it'd be ironic to say the least if two BINO candidates were put forward to the members. In fact it wouldn't be ironic, it'd be hilarious, and lead to a massive revolt.

    What larks.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    It's going to be 30 degrees tomorrow at Wimbledon and both players haven't had much time to recover from the previous matches. Would the sensible thing be to move the match to a 5pm start instead of 2pm? The Mixed Doubles final could be played first at 2pm.

    TV rights and schedules likelybto prevent that

    And 30% is hot but not unplayable
    It was the 30 degrees plus the exhaustion combination I was thinking of. You're probably right about the TV rights.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052

    The ERG do not have the balls, the wit, or the numbers to challenge May.

    Polling puts on more pressure, but let’s be honest, we are mid-term and in the ninth year of Tory or Tory-led government, so nothing to get over excited about.

    May’s strategy is to get her Withdrawal Agreement passed, deliver Brexit, then ride off into the sunset. We will be none the wiser on what Brexit means, but that won’t matter. Brexit will have been delivered.

    The ERG have no alternative. They can vote down the Deal, but that simply means May will need to rely on rebel Labour moderates and possibly concede a referendum.

    If the ERG want a different Brexit they should face spent less time accusing everyone of treachery and more time figuring out a plan. The likes of HYUFD and the (now banned?) Max STILL haven’t learned this lesson.

    And you STILL have not learned to stop telling lies.

    The Leaver plan was set out in full detail in the DexEU white paper. It is also the same plan that DD discussed in public many tims, before Remainer May double crossed him. It is a plan that is far more likely to be acceptable to the EU than May’s desperate attempts to recreate EU membership.
    Even though I'm a Remainer I have to admit I don't know why some commentators keep on accusing Leavers of having no plan(s).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Fascinating thread. The Ungovernable versus the Unelectable. It's difficult to know which way it'll go. If tomorrow's stories are correct Mrs May REALLY is in trouble. Brexit could be turned over and the Tory Party could split in two. Would that push the voters into the arms of Corbyn? A leader who offers no more than a pig in a poke?

    A Corbyn government would of course solve nothing given he would keep us out of the single market anyway and be squeezed between his pro EEA backbenchers and a likely hard Brexiteer Tory Leader of the Opposition
    You are going the way to get a Corbyn government elected
    No you are. As all the polling showing Labour ahead has come after the Chequers Deal and because Tory Leave voters have gone to UKIP
    Why am I - I will not sell my soul to UKIP
    Either the Tories win back UKIP voters or Corbyn becomes PM.

    If you really cannot stand a hard Brexit Tory Party which may become inevitable if the EU refuse a FTA based on May's proposals then you might be better off in the LDs for the foreseeable future
    I am going nowhere and will fight you from within my party

    There will be no hard Brexit without someone explaining how and you certainly have not got a clue other than rejecting UK Airbus workers on the altar of your obsession
    Well prepare to accept being in a minority within the party for the foreseeable future then.

    Nobody is sacrificing Airbus workers other than Airbus executives blackmailing the UK government into BINO or else they walk
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    Britain Elects
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 42% (+1)
    CON: 37% (-4)

    via @DeltapollUK
    Chgs. w/ 01 Jun

    Awaiting other figures
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    Jonathan said:

    People are silly tonight. It’s the weather.

    A few polls showing a dip for the govt after ministerial resignations and a tricky decision . Big deal.

    In life the only real evidence that you’ve done something worthwhile, is that someone has complained.

    If no one complains, you probably haven’t done anything yet.

    For a party to go -5% in a few days is a huge change (baring in mind most changes we see are within MOE) but is isn't just that... The polling is just reflecting what is happening on the ground with Con members quitting their party membership in droves.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,629
    Sean_F said:

    GIN1138 said:

    The ERG do not have the balls, the wit, or the numbers to challenge May.

    Polling puts on more pressure, but let’s be honest, we are mid-term and in the ninth year of Tory or Tory-led government, so nothing to get over excited about.

    It's more than just polling. Con members are absolutely furious (and quitting in droves) at what's happening.

    This is now an existential crisis for the Conservative Party.
    Judging by this week's polling, most Conservatives are sticking with the Conservative party
    "Most" sticking will still see them in Opposition. Significantly so.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,678
    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    People are silly tonight. It’s the weather.

    A few polls showing a dip for the govt after ministerial resignations and a tricky decision . Big deal.

    In life the only real evidence that you’ve done something worthwhile, is that someone has complained.

    If no one complains, you probably haven’t done anything yet.

    For a party to go -5% in a few days is a huge change (baring in mind most changes we see are within MOE) but is isn't just that... The polling is just reflecting what is happening on the ground with Con members quitting their party membership in droves.
    Maybe. Maybe not. Something like this was bound to happen the moment committed to a plan. It has spent long enough on the fence.

    The clock has run out. It is time to do something. When you do something, you inevitably make enemies.

    The only alternative was more paralysis, which ultimately would have been worse.

    Well done May. The games’ finally afoot.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Barnesian said:

    Britain Elects
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 42% (+1)
    CON: 37% (-4)

    via @DeltapollUK
    Chgs. w/ 01 Jun

    Awaiting other figures

    Corbyn heading for Downing Street. The trend is clear.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,161
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Fascinating thread. The Ungovernable versus the Unelectable. It's difficult to know which way it'll go. If tomorrow's stories are correct Mrs May REALLY is in trouble. Brexit could be turned over and the Tory Party could split in two. Would that push the voters into the arms of Corbyn? A leader who offers no more than a pig in a poke?

    A Corbyn government would of course solve nothing given he would keep us out of the single market anyway and be squeezed between his pro EEA backbenchers and a likely hard Brexiteer Tory Leader of the Opposition
    You are going the way to get a Corbyn government elected
    No you are. As all the polling showing Labour ahead has come after the Chequers Deal and because Tory Leave voters have gone to UKIP
    Why am I - I will not sell my soul to UKIP
    Either the Tories win back UKIP voters or Corbyn becomes PM.

    If you really cannot stand a hard Brexit Tory Party which may become inevitable if the EU refuse a FTA based on May's proposals then you might be better off in the LDs for the foreseeable future
    I am going nowhere and will fight you from within my party

    There will be no hard Brexit without someone explaining how and you certainly have not got a clue other than rejecting UK Airbus workers on the altar of your obsession
    Well prepare to accept being in a minority within the party for the foreseeable future then.

    Nobody is sacrificing Airbus workers other than Airbus executives blackmailing the UK government into BINO or else they walk
    Tell me how many conservative mps support a JRM or Boris

    Your dismissive attitude to Airbus speaks volumes to your lack of knowledge of their supply chains and the integrated nature of their manufacturing. My son in law was in France, Spain, and Germany this week demonstrating the EU cooperation of this vital industry to the UK economy
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,678
    AndyJS said:

    Barnesian said:

    Britain Elects
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 42% (+1)
    CON: 37% (-4)

    via @DeltapollUK
    Chgs. w/ 01 Jun

    Awaiting other figures

    Corbyn heading for Downing Street. The trend is clear.
    Is it? It’s only a handful of polls heralding the silly season.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212
    Barnesian said:

    Britain Elects
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 42% (+1)
    CON: 37% (-4)

    via @DeltapollUK
    Chgs. w/ 01 Jun

    Awaiting other figures

    Clearly most of that movement is Tory to UKIP as with Opinium and as with Yougov
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    AndyJS said:

    Barnesian said:

    Britain Elects
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 42% (+1)
    CON: 37% (-4)

    via @DeltapollUK
    Chgs. w/ 01 Jun

    Awaiting other figures

    Corbyn heading for Downing Street. The trend is clear.
    Adding Deltapoll figures:

    Con 297
    Lab 275
    SNP 40
    LD 16
    PC 3
    Green 1
    NI 18
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    Fascinating thread. The Ungovernable versus the Unelectable. It's difficult to know which way it'll go. If tomorrow's stories are correct Mrs May REALLY is in trouble. Brexit could be turned over and the Tory Party could split in two. Would that push the voters into the arms of Corbyn? A leader who offers no more than a pig in a poke?

    A Corbyn government would of course solve nothing given he would keep us out of the single market anyway and be squeezed between his pro EEA backbenchers and a likely hard Brexiteer Tory Leader of the Opposition
    You are going the way to get a Corbyn government elected
    No you are. As all the polling showing Labour ahead has come after the Chequers Deal and because Tory Leave voters have gone to UKIP
    Why am I - I will not sell my soul to UKIP
    Either the Tories win back UKIP voters or Corbyn becomes PM.

    If you really cannot stand a hard Brexit Tory Party which may become inevitable if the EU refuse a FTA based on May's proposals then you might be better off in the LDs for the foreseeable future
    I am going nowhere and will fight you from within my party

    There will be no hard Brexit without someone explaining how and you certainly have not got a clue other than rejecting UK Airbus workers on the altar of your obsession
    Well prepare to accept being in a minority within the party for the foreseeable future then.

    Nobody is sacrificing Airbus workers other than Airbus executives blackmailing the UK government into BINO or else they walk
    Tell me how many conservative mps support a JRM or Boris

    Your dismissive attitude to Airbus speaks volumes to your lack of knowledge of their supply chains and the integrated nature of their manufacturing. My son in law was in France, Spain, and Germany this week demonstrating the EU cooperation of this vital industry to the UK economy
    Probably a third which will grow as others see the rising UKIP vote in their marginal seats.

    Airbus may be an example of EU cooperation but we voted to Leave the EU so if Airbus is not prepared to continue that cooperation with a UK outside the EU then so be it
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    It's going to be 30 degrees tomorrow at Wimbledon and both players haven't had much time to recover from the previous matches. Would the sensible thing be to move the match to a 5pm start instead of 2pm? The Mixed Doubles final could be played first at 2pm.

    That would be considered chilly for a US and especially an Australian Open.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,678
    Barnesian said:

    AndyJS said:

    Barnesian said:

    Britain Elects
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 42% (+1)
    CON: 37% (-4)

    via @DeltapollUK
    Chgs. w/ 01 Jun

    Awaiting other figures

    Corbyn heading for Downing Street. The trend is clear.
    Adding Deltapoll figures:

    Con 297
    Lab 275
    SNP 40
    LD 16
    PC 3
    Green 1
    NI 18
    How many seats for UKIP?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    Barnesian said:

    AndyJS said:

    Barnesian said:

    Britain Elects
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 42% (+1)
    CON: 37% (-4)

    via @DeltapollUK
    Chgs. w/ 01 Jun

    Awaiting other figures

    Corbyn heading for Downing Street. The trend is clear.
    Adding Deltapoll figures:

    Con 297
    Lab 275
    SNP 40
    LD 16
    PC 3
    Green 1
    NI 18
    List of predicted seat changes
    Seat County/Area Predicted Change MP as at 2017
    Aberconwy Clwyd LAB gain from CON : Guto Bebb
    Bolton West Western Manchester LAB gain from CON : Chris Green
    Broxtowe Nottinghamshire LAB gain from CON : Anna Soubry
    Calder Valley West Yorkshire LAB gain from CON : Craig Whittaker
    Ceredigion Dyfed LIB gain from NAT : Ben Lake
    Cheltenham Gloucestershire LIB gain from CON : Alex Chalk
    Chipping Barnet Barnet LAB gain from CON : Theresa Villiers
    Glasgow North East Glasgow area NAT gain from LAB : Paul Sweeney
    Hastings and Rye East Sussex LAB gain from CON : Amber Rudd
    Hendon Barnet LAB gain from CON : Matthew Offord
    Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Fife NAT gain from LAB : Lesley Laird
    Mansfield Nottinghamshire LAB gain from CON : Ben Bradley
    Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East Teesside LAB gain from CON : Simon Clarke
    Midlothian Edinburgh area NAT gain from LAB : Danielle Rowley
    Northampton North Northamptonshire LAB gain from CON : Michael Ellis
    Norwich North Norfolk LAB gain from CON : Chloe Smith
    Preseli Pembrokeshire Dyfed LAB gain from CON : Stephen Crabb
    Pudsey West Yorkshire LAB gain from CON : Stuart Andrew
    Richmond Park Richmond Upon Thames LIB gain from CON : Zac Goldsmith
    Rutherglen and Hamilton West Ayrshire and Lanark NAT gain from LAB : Ged Killen
    Southampton Itchen Hampshire LAB gain from CON : Royston Smith
    St Ives Cornwall LIB gain from CON : Derek Thomas
    Stirling Central NAT gain from CON : Stephen Kerr
    Stoke-on-Trent South Staffordshire LAB gain from CON : Jack Brereton
    Telford Shropshire LAB gain from CON : Lucy Allan
    Thurrock Essex LAB gain from CON : Jackie Doyle-Price
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited July 2018
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Britain Elects
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 42% (+1)
    CON: 37% (-4)

    via @DeltapollUK
    Chgs. w/ 01 Jun

    Awaiting other figures

    Clearly most of that movement is Tory to UKIP as with Opinium and as with Yougov
    Or more likely (unless Farage comes back) Con to Won't Vote.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    Jonathan said:

    Barnesian said:

    AndyJS said:

    Barnesian said:

    Britain Elects
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 42% (+1)
    CON: 37% (-4)

    via @DeltapollUK
    Chgs. w/ 01 Jun

    Awaiting other figures

    Corbyn heading for Downing Street. The trend is clear.
    Adding Deltapoll figures:

    Con 297
    Lab 275
    SNP 40
    LD 16
    PC 3
    Green 1
    NI 18
    How many seats for UKIP?
    None. They need more than 8% nationally to gain any seats!
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    Sean_F said:

    GIN1138 said:

    The ERG do not have the balls, the wit, or the numbers to challenge May.

    Polling puts on more pressure, but let’s be honest, we are mid-term and in the ninth year of Tory or Tory-led government, so nothing to get over excited about.

    It's more than just polling. Con members are absolutely furious (and quitting in droves) at what's happening.

    This is now an existential crisis for the Conservative Party.
    Judging by this week's polling, most Conservatives are sticking with the Conservative party
    Thin gruel, as our next PM might say.

    The pot seems to be coming to a roiling boil if the comments beneath Steve Baker's 'May conspiracy' article are in any way representative.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/14/theresa-mays-secret-cloak-dagger-plot-foil-brexit-revealed-minister/

    Do you think she can survive acceptance of a M.Barnier demand for FreeMovement ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212
    shiney2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    GIN1138 said:

    The ERG do not have the balls, the wit, or the numbers to challenge May.

    Polling puts on more pressure, but let’s be honest, we are mid-term and in the ninth year of Tory or Tory-led government, so nothing to get over excited about.

    It's more than just polling. Con members are absolutely furious (and quitting in droves) at what's happening.

    This is now an existential crisis for the Conservative Party.
    Judging by this week's polling, most Conservatives are sticking with the Conservative party
    Thin gruel, as our next PM might say.

    The pot seems to be coming to a roiling boil if the comments beneath Steve Baker's 'May conspiracy' article are in any way representative.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/14/theresa-mays-secret-cloak-dagger-plot-foil-brexit-revealed-minister/

    Do you think she can survive acceptance of a M.Barnier demand for FreeMovement ?
    On your last sentence no, even Javid would walk if she conceded on that
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,414
    shiney2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    GIN1138 said:

    The ERG do not have the balls, the wit, or the numbers to challenge May.

    Polling puts on more pressure, but let’s be honest, we are mid-term and in the ninth year of Tory or Tory-led government, so nothing to get over excited about.

    It's more than just polling. Con members are absolutely furious (and quitting in droves) at what's happening.

    This is now an existential crisis for the Conservative Party.
    Judging by this week's polling, most Conservatives are sticking with the Conservative party
    Thin gruel, as our next PM might say.

    The pot seems to be coming to a roiling boil if the comments beneath Steve Baker's 'May conspiracy' article are in any way representative.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/14/theresa-mays-secret-cloak-dagger-plot-foil-brexit-revealed-minister/

    Do you think she can survive acceptance of a M.Barnier demand for FreeMovement ?
    No. But then we would be heading for Crash Brexit. For which we have made little to no plans. Which Party was in government when no preparation was made?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,212
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Britain Elects
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 42% (+1)
    CON: 37% (-4)

    via @DeltapollUK
    Chgs. w/ 01 Jun

    Awaiting other figures

    Clearly most of that movement is Tory to UKIP as with Opinium and as with Yougov
    Or more likely (unless Farage comes back) Con to Won't Vote.
    Farage has already said he will come back next March if it is BINO
This discussion has been closed.