Summary: Mrs May has made a right pig's ear of things.
I expect that's part of it, but on the other hand she needed to make a decision, and she would probably have lost some support either way.JRM and co want no deal for instance, if May adopted that as policy I think the Tories would be in the mid30s as well.
No as when May looked like pushing hard Brexit the Tories were on 40%+, most Remainers who were going to defect defected in June 2017.
No, because you are ignoring that the government very obviously had no actual strategy until Chequers, since for months they have been kicking the can down the road, coming up with fudged wording to keep leavers and remainers on side until the point of no return came. Once it came and a side could no longer pretend they had a chance under May, there was an impact.
It makes no sense to suggest the government had a coherent, clear direction in the months of this year in which the Tories were in the lead. They demonstrably did not, hence all the bickering over amendments and the like.
And if you are right and a hard leave (which for JRM is clearly no deal, since they've waited too long) is so bloody popular with the Tory membership (I don't doubt it is more popular to an extent), then there is no excuse for them not to have had a leadership contest in order to stop May now.
So if we do not get a leadership challenge imminently, the only plausible explanation is that no matter how popular you say hard leave is for the tory poll numbers, the MPs pushing it don't actually believe what they are saying.
The numbers don't lie.
The Tories got 42% in June 2017 on a hard Brexit platform and are on 36% in the polls tonight on a soft Brexit platform.
May's deal will likely get us a transition deal but if that deal has not ended with a FTA by the next general election Corbyn becomes PM due to Tory defections to UKIP
For someone who allegedly voted Remain, you seem to prefer Hard Brexit to a soft one.
No Tory will be pure enough for HYUFD and no remainer pure enough for Surby.
* A monarch has a "job for a life", so quintessentially Socialist! * The hereditary principle is so common among Socialist dynasties around the world, such as the Kims in North Korea, the Nehru-Gandhis in India, and the Benn Kinnocks in the UK! * Pomp and circumstance: Trooping the Colour is merely a scaled down version of all those tightly choreographed North Korean parades!
So, I put it to you, PBers, that Monarchy = Socialism!
* A monarch has a "job for a life", so quintessentially Socialist! * The hereditary principle is so common among Socialist dynasties around the world, such as the Kims in North Korea, the Nehru-Gandhis in India, and the Benn Kinnocks in the UK! * Pomp and circumstance: Trooping the Colour is merely a scaled down version of all those tightly choreographed North Korean parades!
So, I put it to you, PBers, that Monarchy = Socialism!
Would be more effective to tell them they would have lost without the help of the French.
* A monarch has a "job for a life", so quintessentially Socialist! * The hereditary principle is so common among Socialist dynasties around the world, such as the Kims in North Korea, the Nehru-Gandhis in India, and the Benn Kinnocks in the UK! * Pomp and circumstance: Trooping the Colour is merely a scaled down version of all those tightly choreographed North Korean parades!
So, I put it to you, PBers, that Monarchy = Socialism!
The Bushes in America? And you do know that Anthony Eden was married to Churchill's niece?
* A monarch has a "job for a life", so quintessentially Socialist! * The hereditary principle is so common among Socialist dynasties around the world, such as the Kims in North Korea, the Nehru-Gandhis in India, and the Benn Kinnocks in the UK! * Pomp and circumstance: Trooping the Colour is merely a scaled down version of all those tightly choreographed North Korean parades!
So, I put it to you, PBers, that Monarchy = Socialism!
No for the umpteenth time monarchy and support for a strong nation state are the epitome of conservatism.
Capitalism and free trade has often been more a liberal concept than a conservative one, though conservatives generally oppose socialism.
There have been hereditary conservative dynasties too from the Churchills to the Bushes.
Pomp and circumstance tends to go hand and hand with a strong military, also a key conservative idea
* A monarch has a "job for a life", so quintessentially Socialist! * The hereditary principle is so common among Socialist dynasties around the world, such as the Kims in North Korea, the Nehru-Gandhis in India, and the Benn Kinnocks in the UK! * Pomp and circumstance: Trooping the Colour is merely a scaled down version of all those tightly choreographed North Korean parades!
So, I put it to you, PBers, that Monarchy = Socialism!
The Bushes in America? And you do know that Anthony Eden was married to Churchill's niece?
Plus two father-son Prime Ministers - the Pitts and the Grenvilles.
One uncle-nephew combination - Salisbury and Balfour.
A father (acting leader) and two of his sons as party leader, although only one became PM - the Chamberlains.
It's good partisan politics. But he cannot pretend later he had a plan, and so would have done better. He will say it, and enough will believe it, but 'masterly inactivity' and not adopting a position will make that untrue. Corbyn really has learned to be a regular politician.
Opposition generally works on the basis that you point out the snags in what the Government is doing, and just sketch out your alternative in broad outline (e.g. yes to customs union, no to single market). I was being a bit mischievous with my earlier post, but really there is not a lot of point in trying to take a detailed position on a negotiation with every twist and turn. The centre of gravity in Labour is mildly Remain, just as the centre of Conservative gravity is fairly hard Leave. When we finally have a result from the Government (or not), there will only be 3 options: Labour will need to either amiably accept the outcome (unlikely) or reject it outright (hmm) or propose putting it to a vote with Remain as the alternative (which is what I think we'll do). If people still want to withdraw when they see the deal, fair enough.
I see there are calls for a Deal vs Remain referendum being debated at Labour's autumn conference.
I suspect that it would be passed if debated, but might be stage-managed off stage.
Take the deal or remain is exactly the type of political bollocks that got the country in the mess its in. It is just a way of remainers trying to subvert the referendum and ensuring we have leave in name only.
Leave won the referendum, the question should be take the deal or WTO
That Irish growth might fall a tad with hard Brexit.
Interesting too the fastest economic growth is in Eastern Europe on the whole which may gradually reduce our immigration anyway if Poland and Romania have faster growing economies than we do
* A monarch has a "job for a life", so quintessentially Socialist! * The hereditary principle is so common among Socialist dynasties around the world, such as the Kims in North Korea, the Nehru-Gandhis in India, and the Benn Kinnocks in the UK! * Pomp and circumstance: Trooping the Colour is merely a scaled down version of all those tightly choreographed North Korean parades!
So, I put it to you, PBers, that Monarchy = Socialism!
The Bushes in America? And you do know that Anthony Eden was married to Churchill's niece?
Summary: Mrs May has made a right pig's ear of things.
I expect that's part of it, but on the other hand she needed to make a decision, and she would probably have lost some support either way.JRM and co want no deal for instance, if May adopted that as policy I think the Tories would be in the mid30s as well.
No as when May looked like pushing hard Brexit the Tories were on 40%+, most Remainers who were going to defect defected in June 2017.
No, because you are ignoring that the government very obviously had no actual strategy until Chequers, since for months they have been kicking the can down the road, coming up with fudged wording to keep leavers and remainers on side until the point of no return came. Once it came and a side could no longer pretend they had a chance under May, there was an impact.
It makes no sense to suggest the government had a coherent, clear direction in the months of this year in which the Tories were in the lead. They demonstrably did not, hence all the bickering over amendments and the like.
And if you are right and a hard leave (which for JRM is clearly no deal, since they've waited too long) is so bloody popular with the Tory membership (I don't doubt it is more popular to an extent), then there is no excuse for them not to have had a leadership contest in order to stop May now.
So if we do not get a leadership challenge imminently, the only plausible explanation is that no matter how popular you say hard leave is for the tory poll numbers, the MPs pushing it don't actually believe what they are saying.
The numbers don't lie.
The Tories got 42% in June 2017 on a hard Brexit platform and are on 36% in the polls tonight on a soft Brexit platform.
May's deal will likely get us a transition deal but if that deal has not ended with a FTA by the next general election Corbyn becomes PM due to Tory defections to UKIP
For someone who allegedly voted Remain, you seem to prefer Hard Brexit to a soft one.
No Tory will be pure enough for HYUFD and no remainer pure enough for Surby.
Where is your evidence of that? GIN, Archer etc are far more supportive of hard Brexit than I am.
I would be happy with Javid and voted Remain but if we need a hard Brexiteer to beat Corbyn then so be it
Summary: Mrs May has made a right pig's ear of things.
I expect that's part of it, but on the other hand she needed to make a decision, and she would probably have lost some support either way.JRM and co want no deal for instance, if May adopted that as policy I think the Tories would be in the mid30s as well.
No as when May looked like pushing hard Brexit the Tories were on 40%+, most Remainers who were going to defect defected in June 2017.
No, because you are ignoring that the government very obviously had no actual strategy until Chequers, since for months they have been kicking the can down the road, coming up with fudged wording to keep leavers and remainers on side until the point of no return came. Once it came and a side could no longer pretend they had a chance under May, there was an impact.
It makes no sense to suggest the government had a coherent, clear direction in the months of this year in which the Tories were aying.
The numbers don't lie.
The Tories got 42% in June 2017 on a hard Brexit platform and are on 36% in the polls tonight on a soft Brexit platform.
May's deal will likely get us a transition deal but if that deal has not ended with a FTA by the next general election Corbyn becomes PM due to Tory defections to UKIP
The government's position relative to Labour is much the same as last Autumn ( though both parties are down in absolute terms).
The Tories were still on 40%+ in most polls last autumn even if Labour led a few, now the Tories are below 40% in all the post Chequers polls
Have you had it with Theresa HYUFD?
She can stay until December 2020 and the supposed end of the transition deal, if we have not get a FTA by then she will have to go yes
* A monarch has a "job for a life", so quintessentially Socialist! * The hereditary principle is so common among Socialist dynasties around the world, such as the Kims in North Korea, the Nehru-Gandhis in India, and the Benn Kinnocks in the UK! * Pomp and circumstance: Trooping the Colour is merely a scaled down version of all those tightly choreographed North Korean parades!
So, I put it to you, PBers, that Monarchy = Socialism!
No for the umpteenth time monarchy and support for a strong nation state are the epitome of conservatism.
Capitalism and free trade has often been more a liberal concept than a conservative one, though conservatives generally oppose socialism.
There have been hereditary conservative dynasties too from the Churchills to the Bushes.
Pomp and circumstance tends to go hand and hand with a strong military, also a key conservative idea
I think Sunil was joking, HYUFD.
On less controversial matter, I'm trying the RPG "The Pillars of the Earth" based on the Follett book set in 1100-odd about a man who dreams of building a cathedral. Positively the first game where I've been asked to deliver a baby in the first 5 minutes...
* A monarch has a "job for a life", so quintessentially Socialist! * The hereditary principle is so common among Socialist dynasties around the world, such as the Kims in North Korea, the Nehru-Gandhis in India, and the Benn Kinnocks in the UK! * Pomp and circumstance: Trooping the Colour is merely a scaled down version of all those tightly choreographed North Korean parades!
So, I put it to you, PBers, that Monarchy = Socialism!
No for the umpteenth time monarchy and support for a strong nation state are the epitome of conservatism.
Capitalism and free trade has often been more a liberal concept than a conservative one, though conservatives generally oppose socialism.
There have been hereditary conservative dynasties too from the Churchills to the Bushes.
Pomp and circumstance tends to go hand and hand with a strong military, also a key conservative idea
I think Sunil was joking, HYUFD.
On less controversial matter, I'm trying the RPG "The Pillars of the Earth" based on the Follett book set in 1100-odd about a man who dreams of building a cathedral. Positively the first game where I've been asked to deliver a baby in the first 5 minutes...
I hope so but it is a mistake to think the Conservative Party is just the political wing of the City of London as it is not true
"Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ · 7m Do you agree or disagree that Donald Trump is right to say Theresa May has wrecked Brexit and her plan is not what people voted for?
I can’t stand Corbyn but Brexit is just as much an experiment as Corbyn’s policies are. So if UKIP is revived for a few years because May does not follow a Hard Brexit path and we end up with Corbyn for 5 years so be it. We shouldn’t follow a Brexit path just to please the hardline Brexiteers who are motivated by nothing else. This is the future of the country at stake and we should follow the least risky Brexit path.
I can’t stand Corbyn but Brexit is just as much an experiment as Corbyn’s policies are. So if UKIP is revived for a few years because May does not follow a Hard Brexit path and we end up with Corbyn for 5 years so be it. We shouldn’t follow a Brexit path just to please the hardline Brexiteers who are motivated by nothing else. This is the future of the country at stake and we should follow the least risky Brexit path.
If you think either of those things are 'experiments,' please never go into nuclear physics. We've only got one planet.
I would guess that U.K. growth this year will be nearer 1.8 than 1.3. I also think some of the EZ growth forecasts will prove somewhat optimistic. We shall see.
On the polling it does appear that slightly more people are still paying attention to Brexit than common sense would have indicated. I think that the majority of those who have shifted will come around to the view I have: that May’s proposal is shit but it is still the best on offer right now.
When was the last time we saw a collapse as dramatic as this? October/November 2007?
Only Theresa May could revive the dead UKIP corpse back to life.
First she revived Corbyn now she has revived Farage.
We better hope Nick Griffin does not start getting ideas!
You have gone off May, haven't you ? Until recently, May could do no wrong.
I don't think she has done much wrong but is caught in a pincer with hard Brexiteers and those who want to remain.
In my opinion we are heading for a hard Brexit or remain but getting there will see blood on the floor
The problem - and it has been a significant problem with May and the EU all along - is that the way this has been played Remain isn't an option and hard Brexit is the default.
* A monarch has a "job for a life", so quintessentially Socialist! * The hereditary principle is so common among Socialist dynasties around the world, such as the Kims in North Korea, the Nehru-Gandhis in India, and the Benn Kinnocks in the UK! * Pomp and circumstance: Trooping the Colour is merely a scaled down version of all those tightly choreographed North Korean parades!
So, I put it to you, PBers, that Monarchy = Socialism!
No for the umpteenth time monarchy and support for a strong nation state are the epitome of conservatism.
Capitalism and free trade has often been more a liberal concept than a conservative one, though conservatives generally oppose socialism.
There have been hereditary conservative dynasties too from the Churchills to the Bushes.
Pomp and circumstance tends to go hand and hand with a strong military, also a key conservative idea
I think Sunil was joking, HYUFD.
On less controversial matter, I'm trying the RPG "The Pillars of the Earth" based on the Follett book set in 1100-odd about a man who dreams of building a cathedral. Positively the first game where I've been asked to deliver a baby in the first 5 minutes...
I hope so but it is a mistake to think the Conservative Party is just the political wing of the City of London as it is not true
* A monarch has a "job for a life", so quintessentially Socialist! * The hereditary principle is so common among Socialist dynasties around the world, such as the Kims in North Korea, the Nehru-Gandhis in India, and the Benn Kinnocks in the UK! * Pomp and circumstance: Trooping the Colour is merely a scaled down version of all those tightly choreographed North Korean parades!
So, I put it to you, PBers, that Monarchy = Socialism!
No for the umpteenth time monarchy and support for a strong nation state are the epitome of conservatism.
Capitalism and free trade has often been more a liberal concept than a conservative one, though conservatives generally oppose socialism.
There have been hereditary conservative dynasties too from the Churchills to the Bushes.
Pomp and circumstance tends to go hand and hand with a strong military, also a key conservative idea
I think Sunil was joking, HYUFD.
On less controversial matter, I'm trying the RPG "The Pillars of the Earth" based on the Follett book set in 1100-odd about a man who dreams of building a cathedral. Positively the first game where I've been asked to deliver a baby in the first 5 minutes...
I hope so but it is a mistake to think the Conservative Party is just the political wing of the City of London as it is not true
I can’t stand Corbyn but Brexit is just as much an experiment as Corbyn’s policies are. So if UKIP is revived for a few years because May does not follow a Hard Brexit path and we end up with Corbyn for 5 years so be it. We shouldn’t follow a Brexit path just to please the hardline Brexiteers who are motivated by nothing else. This is the future of the country at stake and we should follow the least risky Brexit path.
re. your first sentence: not really. When has something akin to Brexit been done - i.e. a large economy leave a block of many other countries? Russia and the fall of the USSR may be one, but that was also very different, with the largest (and controlling) country imploding.
Whereas Corbyn's policies have been tried before: some here in the UK, others elsewhere. Some may remember his fondness for Venezuela; and it's hard to argue that the experiment there has been to the benefit of the average Venezuelan.
I can’t stand Corbyn but Brexit is just as much an experiment as Corbyn’s policies are. So if UKIP is revived for a few years because May does not follow a Hard Brexit path and we end up with Corbyn for 5 years so be it. We shouldn’t follow a Brexit path just to please the hardline Brexiteers who are motivated by nothing else. This is the future of the country at stake and we should follow the least risky Brexit path.
Most likely you will end up with both, Corbyn for 5 years, then a hard Brexit Tory for 5 years
I can’t stand Corbyn but Brexit is just as much an experiment as Corbyn’s policies are. So if UKIP is revived for a few years because May does not follow a Hard Brexit path and we end up with Corbyn for 5 years so be it. We shouldn’t follow a Brexit path just to please the hardline Brexiteers who are motivated by nothing else. This is the future of the country at stake and we should follow the least risky Brexit path.
If you think either of those things are 'experiments,' please never go into nuclear physics. We've only got one planet.
* A monarch has a "job for a life", so quintessentially Socialist! * The hereditary principle is so common among Socialist dynasties around the world, such as the Kims in North Korea, the Nehru-Gandhis in India, and the Benn Kinnocks in the UK! * Pomp and circumstance: Trooping the Colour is merely a scaled down version of all those tightly choreographed North Korean parades!
So, I put it to you, PBers, that Monarchy = Socialism!
No for the umpteenth time monarchy and support for a strong nation state are the epitome of conservatism.
I can’t stand Corbyn but Brexit is just as much an experiment as Corbyn’s policies are. So if UKIP is revived for a few years because May does not follow a Hard Brexit path and we end up with Corbyn for 5 years so be it. We shouldn’t follow a Brexit path just to please the hardline Brexiteers who are motivated by nothing else. This is the future of the country at stake and we should follow the least risky Brexit path.
Most likely you will end up with both, Corbyn for 5 years, then a hard Brexit Tory for 5 years
Give me strength. Hard Brexit will be over shortly, one way or another
* A monarch has a "job for a life", so quintessentially Socialist! * The hereditary principle is so common among Socialist dynasties around the world, such as the Kims in North Korea, the Nehru-Gandhis in India, and the Benn Kinnocks in the UK! * Pomp and circumstance: Trooping the Colour is merely a scaled down version of all those tightly choreographed North Korean parades!
So, I put it to you, PBers, that Monarchy = Socialism!
No for the umpteenth time monarchy and support for a strong nation state are the epitome of conservatism.
...
I am surprised you haven't emigrated to north Korea, in that case.
* A monarch has a "job for a life", so quintessentially Socialist! * The hereditary principle is so common among Socialist dynasties around the world, such as the Kims in North Korea, the Nehru-Gandhis in India, and the Benn Kinnocks in the UK! * Pomp and circumstance: Trooping the Colour is merely a scaled down version of all those tightly choreographed North Korean parades!
So, I put it to you, PBers, that Monarchy = Socialism!
No for the umpteenth time monarchy and support for a strong nation state are the epitome of conservatism.
Capitalism and free trade has often been more a liberal concept than a conservative one, though conservatives generally oppose socialism.
There have been hereditary conservative dynasties too from the Churchills to the Bushes.
Pomp and circumstance tends to go hand and hand with a strong military, also a key conservative idea
I think Sunil was joking, HYUFD.
On less controversial matter, I'm trying the RPG "The Pillars of the Earth" based on the Follett book set in 1100-odd about a man who dreams of building a cathedral. Positively the first game where I've been asked to deliver a baby in the first 5 minutes...
What kind of game mechanics are we talking here? Walking simulator? Point and click? Visual Novel?
When was the last time we saw a collapse as dramatic as this? October/November 2007?
Only Theresa May could revive the dead UKIP corpse back to life.
First she revived Corbyn now she has revived Farage.
We better hope Nick Griffin does not start getting ideas!
You have gone off May, haven't you ? Until recently, May could do no wrong.
I don't think she has done much wrong but is caught in a pincer with hard Brexiteers and those who want to remain.
In my opinion we are heading for a hard Brexit or remain but getting there will see blood on the floor
No. She will get a deal. It will not be a good deal but it will still be better than no deal. And she will drive that through successfully. The consequences for the party are less certain.
* A monarch has a "job for a life", so quintessentially Socialist! * The hereditary principle is so common among Socialist dynasties around the world, such as the Kims in North Korea, the Nehru-Gandhis in India, and the Benn Kinnocks in the UK! * Pomp and circumstance: Trooping the Colour is merely a scaled down version of all those tightly choreographed North Korean parades!
So, I put it to you, PBers, that Monarchy = Socialism!
No for the umpteenth time monarchy and support for a strong nation state are the epitome of conservatism.
...
I am surprised you haven't emigrated to north Korea, in that case.
When was the last time we saw a collapse as dramatic as this? October/November 2007?
Only Theresa May could revive the dead UKIP corpse back to life.
First she revived Corbyn now she has revived Farage.
We better hope Nick Griffin does not start getting ideas!
You have gone off May, haven't you ? Until recently, May could do no wrong.
I don't think she has done much wrong but is caught in a pincer with hard Brexiteers and those who want to remain.
In my opinion we are heading for a hard Brexit or remain but getting there will see blood on the floor
No. She will get a deal. It will not be a good deal but it will still be better than no deal. And she will drive that through successfully. The consequences for the party are less certain.
I really hope you are right and no one knows the political price at this stage
If it’s of any consolation to Tories on here, I’d advise not to get excited over one VI poll. Although given the way VI polls have changed so much since Spring 2017, even if you believe VI polls - nothing should be taken as definitive.
If it’s of any consolation to Tories on here, I’d advise not to get excited over one VI poll. Although given the way VI polls have changed so much since Spring 2017, even if you believe VI polls - nothing should be taken as definitive.
When was the last time we saw a collapse as dramatic as this? October/November 2007?
Only Theresa May could revive the dead UKIP corpse back to life.
First she revived Corbyn now she has revived Farage.
We better hope Nick Griffin does not start getting ideas!
You have gone off May, haven't you ? Until recently, May could do no wrong.
I don't think she has done much wrong but is caught in a pincer with hard Brexiteers and those who want to remain.
In my opinion we are heading for a hard Brexit or remain but getting there will see blood on the floor
No. She will get a deal. It will not be a good deal but it will still be better than no deal. And she will drive that through successfully. The consequences for the party are less certain.
I really hope you are right and no one knows the political price at this stage
There are going to be a significant number of people who feel betrayed by her deal. They will feel that this is not what they voted for. There will be others who are relieved that the deal is not any worse and that some of the benefits of membership have been retained but who will be very reluctant to give her any credit for it.
Whether this will leave enough support to achieve at least a blocking minority sufficient to exclude a Corbyn government is indeed uncertain.
Airbus bosses are furious after the Government spurred them to publish a dire forecast of the impact of Brexit before handing a prize £2bn RAF contract to US rival Boeing without a competition.
The Telegraph has learnt that last month’s bombshell warning from Airbus that it could be forced to leave the UK came after discussions with senior Remainer ministers preparing for the Chequers summit.
On less controversial matter, I'm trying the RPG "The Pillars of the Earth" based on the Follett book set in 1100-odd about a man who dreams of building a cathedral. Positively the first game where I've been asked to deliver a baby in the first 5 minutes...
What kind of game mechanics are we talking here? Walking simulator? Point and click? Visual Novel?
A bit of point and click plus a visual novel. Quite touching but so far not much of a game - more a visual depiction of the novel with some branches to choose from. But early days.
I can’t stand Corbyn but Brexit is just as much an experiment as Corbyn’s policies are. So if UKIP is revived for a few years because May does not follow a Hard Brexit path and we end up with Corbyn for 5 years so be it. We shouldn’t follow a Brexit path just to please the hardline Brexiteers who are motivated by nothing else. This is the future of the country at stake and we should follow the least risky Brexit path.
If you think either of those things are 'experiments,' please never go into nuclear physics. We've only got one planet.
Airbus bosses are furious after the Government spurred them to publish a dire forecast of the impact of Brexit before handing a prize £2bn RAF contract to US rival Boeing without a competition.
The Telegraph has learnt that last month’s bombshell warning from Airbus that it could be forced to leave the UK came after discussions with senior Remainer ministers preparing for the Chequers summit.
On less controversial matter, I'm trying the RPG "The Pillars of the Earth" based on the Follett book set in 1100-odd about a man who dreams of building a cathedral. Positively the first game where I've been asked to deliver a baby in the first 5 minutes...
What kind of game mechanics are we talking here? Walking simulator? Point and click? Visual Novel?
A bit of point and click plus a visual novel. Quite touching but so far not much of a game - more a visual depiction of the novel with some branches to choose from. But early days.
I can’t stand Corbyn but Brexit is just as much an experiment as Corbyn’s policies are. So if UKIP is revived for a few years because May does not follow a Hard Brexit path and we end up with Corbyn for 5 years so be it. We shouldn’t follow a Brexit path just to please the hardline Brexiteers who are motivated by nothing else. This is the future of the country at stake and we should follow the least risky Brexit path.
If you think either of those things are 'experiments,' please never go into nuclear physics. We've only got one planet.
When was the last time we saw a collapse as dramatic as this? October/November 2007?
Only Theresa May could revive the dead UKIP corpse back to life.
First she revived Corbyn now she has revived Farage.
We better hope Nick Griffin does not start getting ideas!
You have gone off May, haven't you ? Until recently, May could do no wrong.
I don't think she has done much wrong but is caught in a pincer with hard Brexiteers and those who want to remain.
In my opinion we are heading for a hard Brexit or remain but getting there will see blood on the floor
No. She will get a deal. It will not be a good deal but it will still be better than no deal. And she will drive that through successfully. The consequences for the party are less certain.
I have a feeling that many hardliners are saying they would vote UKIP just now as a way of protesting May's proposed deal. If the GE doesn't take place for another 4 years I would expect most off them to slither back to the Conservatives once the dust has settled and they are staring a Corbyn government in the face.
Airbus bosses are furious after the Government spurred them to publish a dire forecast of the impact of Brexit before handing a prize £2bn RAF contract to US rival Boeing without a competition.
The Telegraph has learnt that last month’s bombshell warning from Airbus that it could be forced to leave the UK came after discussions with senior Remainer ministers preparing for the Chequers summit.
I can’t stand Corbyn but Brexit is just as much an experiment as Corbyn’s policies are. So if UKIP is revived for a few years because May does not follow a Hard Brexit path and we end up with Corbyn for 5 years so be it. We shouldn’t follow a Brexit path just to please the hardline Brexiteers who are motivated by nothing else. This is the future of the country at stake and we should follow the least risky Brexit path.
If you think either of those things are 'experiments,' please never go into nuclear physics. We've only got one planet.
Just of interest what happens if TM refuses the EU compromises and walks away to prepare for a hard Brexit
UKIP flood back and the HOC stops it
The HoC can huff and puff but they can’t stop us leaving the EU in March 2019. They ceded that control when they voted to trigger Art 50 (thanks Gina).
They can no confidence the Govt, possibly, but I can’t see another Tory having better luck nor any Tory want to go to the country with a chance of Corbz winning. Except Boris, perhaps...
I fully expect the EU to ask for compromises that are not possible (dividing the UK from customs POV, FoM etc). This deal gives her enough cover to say to the Remainers ‘we tried it your way, the EU are instranisgent, so we’re going for a barebones deal and transition to WTO’. And get that 5% back, too.
Just of interest what happens if TM refuses the EU compromises and walks away to prepare for a hard Brexit
UKIP flood back and the HOC stops it
I fully expect the EU to ask for compromises that are not possible (dividing the UK from customs POV, FoM etc). This deal gives her enough cover to say to the Remainers ‘we tried it your way, the EU are instranisgent, so we’re going for a barebones deal and transition to WTO’. And get that 5% back, too.
Just of interest what happens if TM refuses the EU compromises and walks away to prepare for a hard Brexit
UKIP flood back and the HOC stops it
I fully expect the EU to ask for compromises that are not possible (dividing the UK from customs POV, FoM etc). This deal gives her enough cover to say to the Remainers ‘we tried it your way, the EU are instranisgent, so we’re going for a barebones deal and transition to WTO’. And get that 5% back, too.
Is this your prediction?
Yep. I don’t see them accepting this deal without FoM.
Airbus bosses are furious after the Government spurred them to publish a dire forecast of the impact of Brexit before handing a prize £2bn RAF contract to US rival Boeing without a competition.
The Telegraph has learnt that last month’s bombshell warning from Airbus that it could be forced to leave the UK came after discussions with senior Remainer ministers preparing for the Chequers summit.
I suspect he wont be the Tory candidate at the next general election.
Could create an opening for you TSE - though I am not sure 5 years on the opposition benches would be much fun.
I knew at a very young age that being an MP was not for me.
I think CCHQ did me a favour by rejecting me. I think I would have got heavily into debt as a candidate, and if elected, I would not have enjoyed myself.
If the end result of Brexit is a Corbyn government, I will officially regret my Leave vote.
These polls are dire for the Tories. Theresa May is far, far worse than Brown or Major. She has to go, but when? I suppose Tories must let her deliver her awful Brexit, then sack her in April, and blame it all on her.
But Holy Christ, GET RID OF THIS AUTISTIC COW
If there was a 2nd referendum right now, I'm not sure how I'd vote. Probably - just about - LEAVE, but bloody hell I am not at all sure.
It is only a hard Brexit which will keep Corbyn out and prevent Tory Leavers moving to UKIP it seems.
So either choice not great for the country or the economy
If the end result of Brexit is a Corbyn government, I will officially regret my Leave vote.
These polls are dire for the Tories. Theresa May is far, far worse than Brown or Major. She has to go, but when? I suppose Tories must let her deliver her awful Brexit, then sack her in April, and blame it all on her.
But Holy Christ, GET RID OF THIS AUTISTIC COW
If there was a 2nd referendum right now, I'm not sure how I'd vote. Probably - just about - LEAVE, but bloody hell I am not at all sure.
Interesting that Labour's share isn't up in this poll compared to the general election. In fact it's down slightly. The problem is almost entirely a swing from Tory to UKIP.
Just remember I called this Con collapse at around 10pm on 6th July when everyone on here was saying Theresa had played a blinder bitch slapping the Brexiteers....
* A monarch has a "job for a life", so quintessentially Socialist! * The hereditary principle is so common among Socialist dynasties around the world, such as the Kims in North Korea, the Nehru-Gandhis in India, and the Benn Kinnocks in the UK! * Pomp and circumstance: Trooping the Colour is merely a scaled down version of all those tightly choreographed North Korean parades!
So, I put it to you, PBers, that Monarchy = Socialism!
No for the umpteenth time monarchy and support for a strong nation state are the epitome of conservatism.
...
I am surprised you haven't emigrated to north Korea, in that case.
To be fair to Kim Jong Un he does have some conservative characteristics which is maybe why he got on so well with Trump.
However conservatives really support constitutional monarchy not absolute monarchy and dictatorship
These polls are dire for the Tories. Theresa May is far, far worse than Brown or Major. She has to go, but when? I suppose Tories must let her deliver her awful Brexit, then sack her in April, and blame it all on her.
That seems to be the plan or they'd have acted to remove her right now - which actually means her Brexit is probably not as awful as they are pretending (or at least that they have no viable plan they can pursue instead, even if they want to) or they surely would have acted. If they refuse to, it surely cannot be as bad as they say. If they pretend they would but it is too late, that is no excuse, since they could have moved earlier. Ergo, it may well be bad, but it is not as bad as they say.
As for poll numbers, Tories need to calm down. I find it incredible that people expected any Brexit option to get through without the governing party dropping support, particularly given on a harder Brexit prospectus May ended up losing seats to Labour, albeit still coming out on top.
I happen to think that the Tories would have struggled to win reelection anyway in 2022, if we make it that far, but I see nothing compelling in there being a big drop now they are committed. Polls like this will be normal until the transition period I suspect, and then a new leader needs to rebuild. Seriously, Brexit got 52% and we all know that different leavers had different ideas of a good deal, or no deal. And as we get further toward the midterm we know oppositions would expect poll leads. The Tories should have expected a period of being behind, perhaps for some time (they already were for over 6 months).
If the end result of Brexit is a Corbyn government, I will officially regret my Leave vote.
These polls are dire for the Tories. Theresa May is far, far worse than Brown or Major. She has to go, but when? I suppose Tories must let her deliver her awful Brexit, then sack her in April, and blame it all on her.
But Holy Christ, GET RID OF THIS AUTISTIC COW
If there was a 2nd referendum right now, I'm not sure how I'd vote. Probably - just about - LEAVE, but bloody hell I am not at all sure.
There is a sad possibility that no-one in the party could do better: the divide is too deep. Put a Europhile in and the Europhobes will whinge and complain; some may even jump ship to another party. Put a Europhobe in and the Europhiles will whinge and complain.
Put someone in who can see (or play) both sides, and both sides will whinge and complain. The issue is too much of an article of faith for some.
I fail to see *any* Tory short of a reanimated corpse of the blessed saint Maggie who can fix this problem. It requires people to be adults and not children.
Sadly, it appears that is too much to ask of the Conservative Party ...
If the end result of Brexit is a Corbyn government, I will officially regret my Leave vote.
These polls are dire for the Tories. Theresa May is far, far worse than Brown or Major. She has to go, but when? I suppose Tories must let her deliver her awful Brexit, then sack her in April, and blame it all on her.
But Holy Christ, GET RID OF THIS AUTISTIC COW
If there was a 2nd referendum right now, I'm not sure how I'd vote. Probably - just about - LEAVE, but bloody hell I am not at all sure.
Interesting that Labour's share isn't up in this poll compared to the general election. In fact it's down slightly. The problem is almost entirely a swing from Tory to UKIP.
Most likely those Con > UKIP swicthers would actually stay at home (unless Farage comes back) in a real election,
But Jezza won't care. As long as he can win the election 40% to Con 30-35% won't mind how he does it...
Comments
Consider:
* A monarch has a "job for a life", so quintessentially Socialist!
* The hereditary principle is so common among Socialist dynasties around the world, such as the Kims in North Korea, the Nehru-Gandhis in India, and the Benn Kinnocks in the UK!
* Pomp and circumstance: Trooping the Colour is merely a scaled down version of all those tightly choreographed North Korean parades!
So, I put it to you, PBers, that Monarchy = Socialism!
https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1018110457859772416?s=19
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/14/mp-andrew-griffiths-quits-ministerial-post-sex-texts-female/
Real life ones often fail to impress too....
Capitalism and free trade has often been more a liberal concept than a conservative one, though conservatives generally oppose socialism.
There have been hereditary conservative dynasties too from the Churchills to the Bushes.
Pomp and circumstance tends to go hand and hand with a strong military, also a key conservative idea
We better hope Nick Griffin does not start getting ideas!
One uncle-nephew combination - Salisbury and Balfour.
A father (acting leader) and two of his sons as party leader, although only one became PM - the Chamberlains.
I dare say more could be found.
Leave won the referendum, the question should be take the deal or WTO
Interesting too the fastest economic growth is in Eastern Europe on the whole which may gradually reduce our immigration anyway if Poland and Romania have faster growing economies than we do
I would be happy with Javid and voted Remain but if we need a hard Brexiteer to beat Corbyn then so be it
36% would be lower than the 37% Cameron got in 2015 compared to the 42% May got in 2017
On less controversial matter, I'm trying the RPG "The Pillars of the Earth" based on the Follett book set in 1100-odd about a man who dreams of building a cathedral. Positively the first game where I've been asked to deliver a baby in the first 5 minutes...
@GoodwinMJ
·
7m
Do you agree or disagree that Donald Trump is right to say Theresa May has wrecked Brexit and her plan is not what people voted for?
Agree 45%
Disagree 38%
Don't know 17%
ComRes July 13"
In my opinion we are heading for a hard Brexit or remain but getting there will see blood on the floor
On the polling it does appear that slightly more people are still paying attention to Brexit than common sense would have indicated. I think that the majority of those who have shifted will come around to the view I have: that May’s proposal is shit but it is still the best on offer right now.
Whereas Corbyn's policies have been tried before: some here in the UK, others elsewhere. Some may remember his fondness for Venezuela; and it's hard to argue that the experiment there has been to the benefit of the average Venezuelan.
Give me strength. Hard Brexit will be over shortly, one way or another
UKIP flood back and the HOC stops it
I’m backing May against deranged quarterwits like Rees.
Whether this will leave enough support to achieve at least a blocking minority sufficient to exclude a Corbyn government is indeed uncertain.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/07/14/airbus-fury-loss-raf-deal-brexit-warning/
Airbus bosses are furious after the Government spurred them to publish a dire forecast of the impact of Brexit before handing a prize £2bn RAF contract to US rival Boeing without a competition.
The Telegraph has learnt that last month’s bombshell warning from Airbus that it could be forced to leave the UK came after discussions with senior Remainer ministers preparing for the Chequers summit.
I thought Blairs lot were bad , but ffs
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/14/mandelson-brexiters-may-eu-humiliation-opinium-poll
Politics
They can no confidence the Govt, possibly, but I can’t see another Tory having better luck nor any Tory want to go to the country with a chance of Corbz winning. Except Boris, perhaps...
I fully expect the EU to ask for compromises that are not possible (dividing the UK from customs POV, FoM etc). This deal gives her enough cover to say to the Remainers ‘we tried it your way, the EU are instranisgent, so we’re going for a barebones deal and transition to WTO’. And get that 5% back, too.
This is something much, much bigger. Remoaners will ignore it at their peril.
So either choice not great for the country or the economy
Come on Tory PB snowflakes, get a grip! It's one poll ffs!
However conservatives really support constitutional monarchy not absolute monarchy and dictatorship
As for poll numbers, Tories need to calm down. I find it incredible that people expected any Brexit option to get through without the governing party dropping support, particularly given on a harder Brexit prospectus May ended up losing seats to Labour, albeit still coming out on top.
I happen to think that the Tories would have struggled to win reelection anyway in 2022, if we make it that far, but I see nothing compelling in there being a big drop now they are committed. Polls like this will be normal until the transition period I suspect, and then a new leader needs to rebuild. Seriously, Brexit got 52% and we all know that different leavers had different ideas of a good deal, or no deal. And as we get further toward the midterm we know oppositions would expect poll leads. The Tories should have expected a period of being behind, perhaps for some time (they already were for over 6 months).
Put someone in who can see (or play) both sides, and both sides will whinge and complain. The issue is too much of an article of faith for some.
I fail to see *any* Tory short of a reanimated corpse of the blessed saint Maggie who can fix this problem. It requires people to be adults and not children.
Sadly, it appears that is too much to ask of the Conservative Party ...
But Jezza won't care. As long as he can win the election 40% to Con 30-35% won't mind how he does it...