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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rees-Mogg moves back into the favourite slot for next CON lead
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rees-Mogg moves back into the favourite slot for next CON leader
With the pressure on Mrs Mays leadership there has been renewed interest in who will succeed her and a change in the favourite on the Betfair exchange.
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Worst ever?
Floater - Boris.
Not to mention the sheer absence of enough ERG MP's to get him in the top two.
Or any Ministerial experience.
Serena Williams currently losing....
I expect if JRMB gets in he will regret decimalization as well
I think Opinium is due tonight and is usually first up?
Despite all the "predictions" in recent times on here the letters aren't going in for the simple reason that if they do, TMay will survive and then can't be challenged for a year - making her position even stronger.
So the ERG lot plough on "threatening" to put the letters in in an attempt to exert as much leverage as they can.
But it's hopeless for them as they simply don't have the numbers and everyone ultimately knows it.
Which is why the TMay exit odds are drifting.
- Mike Smithson in The Political Punter
Con 42% Lab 40% Lib-Dem 7% UKIP 3% Con Lead 2%
https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-6th-june-2018/
Boris beat Hunt, Williamson and Mordaunt but as it was taken pre his resignation over Chequers and Gove's decision to back May's deal I expect Boris would now beat Gove.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/07/09/leave-voting-conservative-party-members-are-starti/
If JRM endorses Boris and Boris does become leader and PM as a result I can see them falling out fairly quickly...
If a vote were called, Theresa May would almost certainly lose, because everyone knows she is terrible and no Conservative MP wants to fight another election behind her. The problem for the letter-writers is that it is impossible to guess who would win the subsequent leadership race and become Prime Minister, what their take on Brexit would be, and whether that would be a good or bad thing. That's why the price is drifting.
He always seems very principled and polite and very clear in his views, especially over Brexit.
The point is that if she lost, they wouldn't get a leader who would pursue an even Softer Brexit. But they would have a sporting chance of a leader who would pursue a Harder Brexit. So would be worth rolling the dice.
But they don't - because she'll win.
I posed the question to HYFUFD on the last thread.
How do the ERG stop planes being grounded, log jammed UK ports, Airbus and other manufacturers put at grave risk, EU health being lost and visa travel to Europe imposed. Additionally how do they stop the currency and stock markets crashing and investment draining out of the Country, just the scenario they paint about Corbyn
For me it is May's Brexit or remain or unless someone can provide a thought through and coherrent path through a hard border
However the centrist way , in many areas, is seen as a sellout to the true believers.
The reason no-one wants to risk a contest is not that May would win and be safe for another year. She would not. The problem is that whoever wins the subsequent (and quite separate) race for the leadership will be safe for five years, and the Moggites can't risk it being Hammond, the Goveites can't risk Boris winning, and so on through all the contenders.
@EuropeElects
Germany, Forsa poll:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 31% (+1)
SPD-S&D: 17%
AfD-EFDD: 16%
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 12%
FDP-ALDE: 9% (-1)
LINKE-LEFT: 9%
Field work: 9/07/18 –13/07/18
Sample size: 2,505"
The alt right and hard left are becoming a very real threat to the vast majority of us who live in the centre
(I realise that using statistics in this way is just as daft as saying that May in 2017 did better than Cameron in 2015 on the basis of vote share)
Most likely though the EU will not accept it as far as a FTA agrees, at least not immediately but only as allowing the transition period to commence next April during which FTA talks will continue.
The problem then comes if a FTA has not been agreed by December 2020 and the EU has no incentive to do so will Tory members and MPs be happy for the transition period to continue into 2022 and the next general election? If so UKIP will certainly be pushing hard on their Brexiteer flank
There is no centrist option. I dont see it coming from anywhere.
May has got herself in an impossible position, where she can not get a soft or hard brexit through Parliament.
It maybe the ERG's game is to get May to just agree some time limited extension and then go for a new leader and start the Brexit process again.
If a VNOC was held May would get 200- 230 and anti May 86 - 116 - so May wins and end to the story
There will not be a subsequent and separate vote unless May resigns and it then becomes a leadership race
The government could go when this white paper is brought before Parliament [ assuming it is untouched by the EU - very unlikely ] as Labour will not be supporting it and neither will the ERG.
For the government to fall they have to lose a vote of no confidence and all the party would vote against it
Came home undefeated .
Different format in those days as they had two group stages .
Then the final.
Until someone gives me an answer hard Brexit is off my agenda
To be fair if you do not know the answer, with respect, that is consistent with all Brexiteers
A Canada is possible or a Norway but I am not sure of a Switzerland anymore.
The only vote that could pass through Parliament is "a" Customs Union. It still abides by the referendum. Whether the Tory party survives in its present form is another matter.
The latest Opinium poll for the Observer puts Labour on 40%, the same score as last month, but four points ahead of the Tories who have dropped by six points since early June to 36%. The fall in Tory support would appear to be the result of Conservative supporters who backed leaving the EU turning to Ukip, whose support has shot up by 5pts from 3% last month to 8%.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/14/labour-opens-up-biggest-lead-over-tories-since-general-election
A large part of the conservative party is in the centre, it is the Brexiteers who think they have taken over the party think like that
Edit: This is the legacy of Soubry, Morgan, Grieve et al.
She is now well behind Corbyn who is on -12%, little changed from -13% last month.
Overall the poll findings suggest that the turmoil in government caused by Brexit, which led last week to the resignations of foreign secretary Boris Johnson and Brexit secretary David Davis, is having a more significant effect on how the public view the different political parties and their willingness to support them, than has been the case so far. About 51% of people now think Brexit is one of the most important issues facing the country – the highest percentage recorded so far by Opinium – and up markedly from 42% last month.
May now has the lowest approval rating specifically on her handling of Brexit since Opinium starting polling on the issue. Just 25% currently approve of the way she is handling Brexit, down from 30% last month, while 56% disapprove, up from 45% last month.
However: too many 'centrists' have a tendency to excuse excesses by the extremes of their own side, perhaps because those on the other side of the political divide label *all* their opponents the same. Hence all Conservatives are baby-eating Farage followers, and all Labour peeps are Commy- and IRA- supporting fools.
We see this with Labour's anti-Semitism issues, which too many Labour followers excused, and then pointed at the Conservatives and said: "See! you have problems too!"
It's like kids in a playground saying: "You stink!" "No! You stink!"
When the real answer is: "Hmmm. Perhaps we both ought to have a wash..."
The centrists should be shouting about the extremes on both sides, even if they're marginally on one side. SO does this IMO.
1990 WC
1996 EC
2018 WC
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_FIFA_World_Cup
The differing format in ,1982 , was two group stages , then into the semi final
Only world cup alongside 1966 England went undefeated.
One piece of reasonable news for May is that the public is split 32/32 on Chequers.
If these polls become a trend they will certainly boost the potential leadership candidacies of Boris and Mogg
I think, though, that we will call lfor a new referendum once the deal is finally apparent.
Obviously not .