politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rees-Mogg moves back into the favourite slot for next CON lead

England lose 3 games at a World Cup.

Worst ever?

FPT

Floater - Boris.

I don’t see how Mogg if he were PM could get a hard Brexit through Parliament.

Anyone put any bets on the Wimbledon women's final?

Serena Williams currently losing....

dixiedean said:

chloe said:

I don’t see how Mogg if he were PM could get a hard Brexit through Parliament.

No Deal is the preferred end state for his fans, I fear.

Which would be a disaster for the country.

chloe said:

dixiedean said:

chloe said:

I don’t see how Mogg if he were PM could get a hard Brexit through Parliament.

No Deal is the preferred end state for his fans, I fear.

Which would be a disaster for the country.

Of course. I really don't think they give a monkeys TBH though.

After Brexit are we able to back to lb and oz?

I expect if JRMB gets in he will regret decimalization as well

dixiedean said:

chloe said:

dixiedean said:

chloe said:

I don’t see how Mogg if he were PM could get a hard Brexit through Parliament.

No Deal is the preferred end state for his fans, I fear.

Which would be a disaster for the country.

Of course. I really don't think they give a monkeys TBH though.

Quite, as long as we are free from Europe it doesn’t matter how many jobs are lost or what happens in Northern Ireland because we can get a one-sided trade deal with Trump.

Kerber beats Williams to win the Wimbledon Ladies' title

"Always lay the early favourite"
- Mike Smithson in The Political Punter

If we do get an Opinum poll these were last months voting intention numbers:

Con 42% Lab 40% Lib-Dem 7% UKIP 3% Con Lead 2%

https://www.opinium.co.uk/political-polling-6th-june-2018/

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

Kerber beats Williams to win the Wimbledon Ladies' title

A reversal of the 2016 result.

Kerber looks like she is now taking over at the top

HYUFD said:

The reason Mogg is back as favourite is last weekend's Tory members YouGov poll which had Mogg beating all rival Tory leadership contenders. Javid beat all rivals bar Mogg (and Davidson who he tied) and hence is second and Gove beat all rivals bar Javid, Mogg and Davidson hence he is third as Davidson is not an MP. So if Mogg does not succeed May it will likely be as the MPs keep him out of the final two, though he may not stand anyway but back Boris instead.

Boris beat Hunt, Williamson and Mordaunt but as it was taken pre his resignation over Chequers and Gove's decision to back May's deal I expect Boris would now beat Gove.


https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/07/09/leave-voting-conservative-party-members-are-starti/

Yeah and what you need to think is where JRM's numbers go if he/when he says he's not standing and endorses Boris - Despite what people think I genuinely think JRM is serious when he says he doesn't want to be leader and an MP can't become PM from the backbenches.

HYUFD said:

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

The reason Mogg is back as favourite is last weekend's Tory members YouGov poll which had Mogg beating all rival Tory leadership contenders. Javid beat all rivals bar Mogg (and Davidson who he tied) and hence is second and Gove beat all rivals bar Javid, Mogg and Davidson hence he is third as Davidson is not an MP. So if Mogg does not succeed May it will likely be as the MPs keep him out of the final two, though he may not stand anyway but back Boris instead.

Boris beat Hunt, Williamson and Mordaunt but as it was taken pre his resignation over Chequers and Gove's decision to back May's deal I expect Boris would now beat Gove.


https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/07/09/leave-voting-conservative-party-members-are-starti/

Yeah and what you need to think is where JRM's numbers go if he/when he says he's not standing and endorses Boris - Despite what people think I genuinely think JRM is serious when he says he doesn't want to be leader and an MP can't become PM from the backbenches.

Exactly, if Mogg's backers transfer direct to Boris, then Boris comes right back into contention

I don't understand how a man of "piety" like JRM and a "sinner" like Boris can be bedfellows but Brexit has thrown up some strange alliances...

If JRM endorses Boris and Boris does become leader and PM as a result I can see them falling out fairly quickly...

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

The reason Mogg is back as favourite is last weekend's Tory members YouGov poll which had Mogg beating all rival Tory leadership contenders. Javid beat all rivals bar Mogg (and Davidson who he tied) and hence is second and Gove beat all rivals bar Javid, Mogg and Davidson hence he is third as Davidson is not an MP. So if Mogg does not succeed May it will likely be as the MPs keep him out of the final two, though he may not stand anyway but back Boris instead.

Boris beat Hunt, Williamson and Mordaunt but as it was taken pre his resignation over Chequers and Gove's decision to back May's deal I expect Boris would now beat Gove.


https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/07/09/leave-voting-conservative-party-members-are-starti/

Yeah and what you need to think is where JRM's numbers go if he/when he says he's not standing and endorses Boris - Despite what people think I genuinely think JRM is serious when he says he doesn't want to be leader and an MP can't become PM from the backbenches.

I can understand why the Conservative members like him.

He always seems very principled and polite and very clear in his views, especially over Brexit.

Freggles said:

After Brexit are we able to back to lb and oz?

I expect if JRMB gets in he will regret decimalization as well

Any business exporting to the US is already very used to inch's, feet, lb and oz.

FPT: Instead of the postal ballot of members for the final stage, could local associations caucus the membership to speed things up???

DecrepitJohnL said:

MikeL said:

Now over 6-1 for TMay to go in Q3 2018.

Despite all the "predictions" in recent times on here the letters aren't going in for the simple reason that if they do, TMay will survive and then can't be challenged for a year - making her position even stronger.

So the ERG lot plough on "threatening" to put the letters in in an attempt to exert as much leverage as they can.

But it's hopeless for them as they simply don't have the numbers and everyone ultimately knows it.

Which is why the TMay exit odds are drifting.

The letters aren't going in because no-one has a bleeding clue about Brexit: not the PM who called an election to win a mandate for her vision of Brexit; not the ERG which (despite its name) apparently has done no research at all on the subject; not the ministers and ex-ministers who led the Leave side in the referendum.

If a vote were called, Theresa May would almost certainly lose, because everyone knows she is terrible and no Conservative MP wants to fight another election behind her. The problem for the letter-writers is that it is impossible to guess who would win the subsequent leadership race and become Prime Minister, what their take on Brexit would be, and whether that would be a good or bad thing. That's why the price is drifting.

No, if the ERG thought she would lose they would put the letters in.

The point is that if she lost, they wouldn't get a leader who would pursue an even Softer Brexit. But they would have a sporting chance of a leader who would pursue a Harder Brexit. So would be worth rolling the dice.

But they don't - because she'll win.

Yorkcity said:

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

The reason Mogg is back as favourite is last weekend's Tory members YouGov poll which had Mogg beating all rival Tory leadership contenders. Javid beat all rivals bar Mogg (and Davidson who he tied) and hence is second and Gove beat all rivals bar Javid, Mogg and Davidson hence he is third as Davidson is not an MP. So if Mogg does not succeed May it will likely be as the MPs keep him out of the final two, though he may not stand anyway but back Boris instead.

Boris beat Hunt, Williamson and Mordaunt but as it was taken pre his resignation over Chequers and Gove's decision to back May's deal I expect Boris would now beat Gove.


https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/07/09/leave-voting-conservative-party-members-are-starti/

Yeah and what you need to think is where JRM's numbers go if he/when he says he's not standing and endorses Boris - Despite what people think I genuinely think JRM is serious when he says he doesn't want to be leader and an MP can't become PM from the backbenches.

I can understand why the Conservative members like him.

He always seems very principled and polite and very clear in his views, especially over Brexit.

But like all his group they have not told us how they would manage a hard Brexit.

I posed the question to HYFUFD on the last thread.

How do the ERG stop planes being grounded, log jammed UK ports, Airbus and other manufacturers put at grave risk, EU health being lost and visa travel to Europe imposed. Additionally how do they stop the currency and stock markets crashing and investment draining out of the Country, just the scenario they paint about Corbyn

For me it is May's Brexit or remain or unless someone can provide a thought through and coherrent path through a hard border

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

MikeL said:

Now over 6-1 for TMay to go in Q3 2018.

Despite all the "predictions" in recent times on here the letters aren't going in for the simple reason that if they do, TMay will survive and then can't be challenged for a year - making her position even stronger.

So the ERG lot plough on "threatening" to put the letters in in an attempt to exert as much leverage as they can.

But it's hopeless for them as they simply don't have the numbers and everyone ultimately knows it.

Which is why the TMay exit odds are drifting.

The letters aren't going in because no-one has a bleeding clue about Brexit: not the PM who called an election to win a mandate for her vision of Brexit; not the ERG which (despite its name) apparently has done no research at all on the subject; not the ministers and ex-ministers who led the Leave side in the referendum.

If a vote were called, Theresa May would almost certainly lose, because everyone knows she is terrible and no Conservative MP wants to fight another election behind her. The problem for the letter-writers is that it is impossible to guess who would win the subsequent leadership race and become Prime Minister, what their take on Brexit would be, and whether that would be a good or bad thing. That's why the price is drifting.

You misunderstand the process. If the letters go in, even at best JRM group would get max of 25-30% and May 70 - 75% . It then follows that May is safe for another year so an actual leadership contest would entirely depend on May resigning and she shows no signs of that. She is a bloody difficult woman

No, you misunderstand the process. If the letters go in, it is a vote on Theresa May only. It is not a vote on Theresa May versus JRM. That's why May will lose.

The reason no-one wants to risk a contest is not that May would win and be safe for another year. She would not. The problem is that whoever wins the subsequent (and quite separate) race for the leadership will be safe for five years, and the Moggites can't risk it being Hammond, the Goveites can't risk Boris winning, and so on through all the contenders.

Yorkcity said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Yorkcity said:

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

The reason Mogg is back as favourite is last weekend's Tory members YouGov poll which had Mogg beating all rival Tory leadership contenders. Javid beat all rivals bar Mogg (and Davidson who he tied) and hence is second and Gove beat all rivals bar Javid, Mogg and Davidson hence he is third as Davidson is not an MP. So if Mogg does not succeed May it will likely be as the MPs keep him out of the final two, though he may not stand anyway but back Boris instead.

Boris beat Hunt, Williamson and Mordaunt but as it was taken pre his resignation over Chequers and Gove's decision to back May's deal I expect Boris would now beat Gove.


https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/07/09/leave-voting-conservative-party-members-are-starti/

Yeah and what you need to think is where JRM's numbers go if he/when he says he's not standing and endorses Boris - Despite what people think I genuinely think JRM is serious when he says he doesn't want to be leader and an MP can't become PM from the backbenches.

I can understand why the Conservative members like him.

He always seems very principled and polite and very clear in his views, especially over Brexit.

But like all his group they have not told us how they would manage a hard Brexit.

I posed the question to HYFUFD on the last thread.

How do the ERG stop planes being grounded, log jammed UK ports, Airbus and other manufacturers put at grave risk, EU health being lost and visa travel to Europe imposed. Additionally how do they stop the currency and stock markets crashing and investment draining out of the Country, just the scenario they paint about Corbyn

For me it is May's Brexit or remain or unless someone can provide a thought through and coherrent path through a hard border

I agree with you Big G.

However the centrist way , in many areas, is seen as a sellout to the true believers.

The pro Trump rally today clashing with the Anti Fascist rally in London today showed all the hate and prejeudice from both sides that fills you with foreboding.

The alt right and hard left are becoming a very real threat to the vast majority of us who live in the centre

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

England lose 3 games at a World Cup.

Worst ever?

No still our joint 2nd best ever along with 1990 (where we also lost the 3rd place playoff) after 1966. We won 4, lost 2. In 2014 we lost 2 and drew one and did not win a single match

So, yes, our worst ever tournament in terms of number of defeats.

(I realise that using statistics in this way is just as daft as saying that May in 2017 did better than Cameron in 2015 on the basis of vote share)

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

England lose 3 games at a World Cup.

Worst ever?

No still our joint 2nd best ever along with 1990 (where we also lost the 3rd place playoff) after 1966. We won 4, lost 2. In 2014 we lost 2 and drew one and did not win a single match

So, yes, our worst ever tournament in terms of number of defeats.

(I realise that using statistics in this way is just as daft as saying that May in 2017 did better than Cameron in 2015 on the basis of vote share)

On that basis IDS was one of the best ever Tory leaders as he never lost a general election

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Yorkcity said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Yorkcity said:

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

The reason Mogg is back as favourite is last weekend's Tory members YouGov poll which had Mogg beating all rival Tory leadership contenders. Javid beat all rivals bar Mogg (and Davidson who he tied) and hence is second and Gove beat all rivals bar Javid, Mogg and Davidson hence he is third as Davidson is not an MP. So if Mogg does not succeed May it will likely be as the MPs keep him out of the final two, though he may not stand anyway but back Boris instead.

Boris beat Hunt, Williamson and Mordaunt but as it was taken pre his resignation over Chequers and Gove's decision to back May's deal I expect Boris would now beat Gove.


https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/07/09/leave-voting-conservative-party-members-are-starti/

Yeah and what you need to think is where JRM's numbers go if he/when he says he's not standing and endorses Boris - Despite what people think I genuinely think JRM is serious when he says he doesn't want to be leader and an MP can't become PM from the backbenches.

I can understand why the Conservative members like him.

He always seems very principled and polite and very clear in his views, especially over Brexit.

But like all his group they have not told us how they would manage a hard Brexit.

I posed the question to HYFUFD on the last thread.

How do the ERG stop planes being grounded, log jammed UK ports, Airbus and other manufacturers put at grave risk, EU health being lost and visa travel to Europe imposed. Additionally how do they stop the currency and stock markets crashing and investment draining out of the Country, just the scenario they paint about Corbyn

For me it is May's Brexit or remain or unless someone can provide a thought through and coherrent path through a hard border

I agree with you Big G.

However the centrist way , in many areas, is seen as a sellout to the true believers.

The pro Trump rally today clashing with the Anti Fascist rally in London today showed all the hate and prejeudice from both sides that fills you with foreboding.

The alt right and hard left are becoming a very real threat to the vast majority of us who live in the centre

It is becoming a question of which tyranny do you prefer.
There is no centrist option. I dont see it coming from anywhere.

DecrepitJohnL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

MikeL said:

Now over 6-1 for TMay to go in Q3 2018.

Despite all the "predictions" in recent times on here the letters aren't going in for the simple reason that if they do, TMay will survive and then can't be challenged for a year - making her position even stronger.

So the ERG lot plough on "threatening" to put the letters in in an attempt to exert as much leverage as they can.

But it's hopeless for them as they simply don't have the numbers and everyone ultimately knows it.

Which is why the TMay exit odds are drifting.

The letters aren't going in because no-one has a bleeding clue about Brexit: not the PM who called an election to win a mandate for her vision of Brexit; not the ERG which (despite its name) apparently has done no research at all on the subject; not the ministers and ex-ministers who led the Leave side in the referendum.

If a vote were called, Theresa May would almost certainly lose, because everyone knows she is terrible and no Conservative MP wants to fight another election behind her. The problem for the letter-writers is that it is impossible to guess who would win the subsequent leadership race and become Prime Minister, what their take on Brexit would be, and whether that would be a good or bad thing. That's why the price is drifting.

You misunderstand the process. If the letters go in, even at best JRM group would get max of 25-30% and May 70 - 75% . It then follows that May is safe for another year so an actual leadership contest would entirely depend on May resigning and she shows no signs of that. She is a bloody difficult woman

No, you misunderstand the process. If the letters go in, it is a vote on Theresa May only. It is not a vote on Theresa May versus JRM. That's why May will lose.

The reason no-one wants to risk a contest is not that May would win and be safe for another year. She would not. The problem is that whoever wins the subsequent (and quite separate) race for the leadership will be safe for five years, and the Moggites can't risk it being Hammond, the Goveites can't risk Boris winning, and so on through all the contenders.

I do not know if you are a member but I am and the point I was making is that the anti May mps account for approx 25 - 30% of the MP's and the pro May the rest

If a VNOC was held May would get 200- 230 and anti May 86 - 116 - so May wins and end to the story

There will not be a subsequent and separate vote unless May resigns and it then becomes a leadership race

nielh said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Yorkcity said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Yorkcity said:

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

The reason Mogg is back as favourite is last weekend's Tory members YouGov poll which had Mogg beating all rival Tory leadership contenders. Javid beat all rivals bar Mogg (and Davidson who he tied) and hence is second and Gove beat all rivals bar Javid, Mogg and Davidson hence he is third as Davidson is not an MP. So if Mogg does not succeed May it will likely be as the MPs keep him out of the final two, though he may not stand anyway but back Boris instead.

Boris beat Hunt, Williamson and Mordaunt but as it was taken pre his resignation over Chequers and Gove's decision to back May's deal I expect Boris would now beat Gove.


https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/07/09/leave-voting-conservative-party-members-are-starti/

Yeah and what you need to think is where JRM's numbers go if he/when he says he's not standing and endorses Boris - Despite what people think I genuinely think JRM is serious when he says he doesn't want to be leader and an MP can't become PM from the backbenches.

I can understand why the Conservative members like him.

He always seems very principled and polite and very clear in his views, especially over Brexit.

But like all his group they have not told us how they would manage a hard Brexit.

I posed the question to HYFUFD on the last thread.

How do the ERG stop planes being grounded, log jammed UK ports, Airbus and other manufacturers put at grave risk, EU health being lost and visa travel to Europe imposed. Additionally how do they stop the currency and stock markets crashing and investment draining out of the Country, just the scenario they paint about Corbyn

For me it is May's Brexit or remain or unless someone can provide a thought through and coherrent path through a hard border

I agree with you Big G.

However the centrist way , in many areas, is seen as a sellout to the true believers.

The pro Trump rally today clashing with the Anti Fascist rally in London today showed all the hate and prejeudice from both sides that fills you with foreboding.

The alt right and hard left are becoming a very real threat to the vast majority of us who live in the centre

It is becoming a question of which tyranny do you prefer.
There is no centrist option. I dont see it coming from anywhere.

The centrist option was killed of by extremists saying they were in the centre. Warmongering, largest crash in the economy since the 30's, debt through the roof, etc.

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

The reason Mogg is back as favourite is last weekend's Tory members YouGov poll which had Mogg beating all rival Tory leadership contenders. Javid beat all rivals bar Mogg (and Davidson who he tied) and hence is second and Gove beat all rivals bar Javid, Mogg and Davidson hence he is third as Davidson is not an MP. So if Mogg does not succeed May it will likely be as the MPs keep him out of the final two, though he may not stand anyway but back Boris instead.

Boris beat Hunt, Williamson and Mordaunt but as it was taken pre his resignation over Chequers and Gove's decision to back May's deal I expect Boris would now beat Gove.


https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/07/09/leave-voting-conservative-party-members-are-starti/

Yeah and what you need to think is where JRM's numbers go if he/when he says he's not standing and endorses Boris - Despite what people think I genuinely think JRM is serious when he says he doesn't want to be leader and an MP can't become PM from the backbenches.

Exactly, if Mogg's backers transfer direct to Boris, then Boris comes right back into contention

I don't understand how a man of "piety" like JRM and a "sinner" like Boris can be bedfellows but Brexit has thrown up some strange alliances...

If JRM endorses Boris and Boris does become leader and PM as a result I can see them falling out fairly quickly...

Yes, it would be like Nigel Farage and Douglas Carswell. There’s only one thing they have in common which is to support leaving the EU.

ralphmalph said:

nielh said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Yorkcity said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Yorkcity said:

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

The reason Mogg is back as favourite is last weekend's Tory members YouGov poll which had Mogg beating all rival Tory leadership contenders. Javid beat all rivals bar Mogg (and Davidson who he tied) and hence is second and Gove beat all rivals bar Javid, Mogg and Davidson hence he is third as Davidson is not an MP. So if Mogg does not succeed May it will likely be as the MPs keep him out of the final two, though he may not stand anyway but back Boris instead.

Boris beat Hunt, Williamson and Mordaunt but as it was taken pre his resignation over Chequers and Gove's decision to back May's deal I expect Boris would now beat Gove.


https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/07/09/leave-voting-conservative-party-members-are-starti/

Yeah and what you need to think is where JRM's numbers go if he/when he says he's not standing and endorses Boris - Despite what people think I genuinely think JRM is serious when he says he doesn't want to be leader and an MP can't become PM from the backbenches.

I can understand why the Conservative members like him.

He always seems very principled and polite and very clear in his views, especially over Brexit.

But like all his group they have not told us how they would manage a hard Brexit.

I posed the question to HYFUFD rbyn

For me it is May's Brexit or remain or unless someone can provide a thought through and coherrent path through a hard border

I agree with you Big G.

However the centrist way , in many areas, is seen as a sellout to the true believers.

The pro Trump rally today clashing with the Anti Fascist rally in London today showed all the hate and prejeudice from both sides that fills you with foreboding.

The alt right and hard left are becoming a very real threat to the vast majority of us who live in the centre

It is becoming a question of which tyranny do you prefer.
There is no centrist option. I dont see it coming from anywhere.

The centrist option was killed of by extremists saying they were in the centre. Warmongering, largest crash in the economy since the 30's, debt through the roof, etc.

Never fear centrists, there is always the LDs and Vince Cable if the next general election is Mogg or Boris v Corbyn. Though on second thoughts....

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Yorkcity said:

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

.

Boris beat Hunt, Williamson and Mordaunt but as it was taken pre his resignation over Chequers and Gove's decision to back May's deal I expect Boris would now beat Gove.


https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/07/09/leave-voting-conservative-party-members-are-starti/

Yeah and what you need to think is where JRM's numbers go if he/when he says he's not standing and endorses Boris - Despite what people think I genuinely think JRM is serious when he says he doesn't want to be leader and an MP can't become PM from the backbenches.

I can understand why the Conservative members like him.

He always seems very principled and polite and very clear in his views, especially over Brexit.

But like all his group they have not told us how they would manage a hard Brexit.

I posed the question to HYFUFD on the last thread.

How do the ERG stop planes being grounded, log jammed UK ports, Airbus and other manufacturers put at grave risk, EU health being lost and visa travel to Europe imposed. Additionally how do they stop the currency and stock markets crashing and investment draining out of the Country, just the scenario they paint about Corbyn

For me it is May's Brexit or remain or unless someone can provide a thought through and coherrent path through a hard border

May's Brexit provided it does really end FOM would be fine assuming the EU accepts it, though you have to accept the Tories now narrowly trail Labour as some Tory Leavers have defected to UKIP.

Most likely though the EU will not accept it as far as a FTA agrees, at least not immediately but only as allowing the transition period to commence next April during which FTA talks will continue.

The problem then comes if a FTA has not been agreed by December 2020 and the EU has no incentive to do so will Tory members and MPs be happy for the transition period to continue into 2022 and the next general election? If so UKIP will certainly be pushing hard on their Brexiteer flank

The problem you [ HYUFD ] have is that you stubbornly believe the UK has some upper hand in the negotiations. The EU will not allow the dismemberment of the Internal Market [ no FoM, no Services ] just to placate the UK.

A Canada is possible or a Norway but I am not sure of a Switzerland anymore.

The only vote that could pass through Parliament is "a" Customs Union. It still abides by the referendum. Whether the Tory party survives in its present form is another matter.

HYUFD said:

ralphmalph said:

nielh said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Yorkcity said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Yorkcity said:

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

The reason Mogg is back as favourite is last weekend's Tory members YouGov poll which had Mogg beating all rival Tory leadership contenders. Javid beat all rivals bar Mogg (and Davidson who he tied) and hence is second and Gove beat all rivals bar Javid, Mogg and Davidson hence he is third as Davidson is not an MP. So if Mogg does not succeed May it will likely be as the MPs keep him out of the final two, though he may not stand anyway but back Boris instead.

Boris beat Hunt, Williamson and Mordaunt but as it was taken pre his resignation over Chequers and Gove's decision to back May's deal I expect Boris would now beat Gove.


https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/07/09/leave-voting-conservative-party-members-are-starti/

Yeah and what you need to think is where JRM's numbers go if he/when he says he's not standing and endorses Boris - Despite what people think I genuinely think JRM is serious when he says he doesn't want to be leader and an MP can't become PM from the backbenches.

I can understand why the Conservative members like him.

He always seems very principled and polite and very clear in his views, especially over Brexit.

But like all his group they have not told us how they would manage a hard Brexit.

I posed the question to HYFUFD rbyn

For me it is May's Brexit or remain or unless someone can provide a thought through and coherrent path through a hard border

I agree with you Big G.

However the centrist way , in many areas, is seen as a sellout to the true believers.

The pro Trump rally today clashing with the Anti Fascist rally in London today showed all the hate and prejeudice from both sides that fills you with foreboding.

The alt right and hard left are becoming a very real threat to the vast majority of us who live in the centre

It is becoming a question of which tyranny do you prefer.
There is no centrist option. I dont see it coming from anywhere.

The centrist option was killed of by extremists saying they were in the centre. Warmongering, largest crash in the economy since the 30's, debt through the roof, etc.

Never fear centrists, there is always the LDs and Vince Cable if the next general election is Mogg or Boris v Corbyn. Though on second thoughts....

The "Liberal" Party that calls leave voters Jihadi's and brownshirts. Yet more extremists.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

MikeL said:

Now over 6-1 for TMay to go in Q3 2018.

Despite all the "predictions" in recent times on here the letters aren't going in for the simple reason that if they do, TMay will survive and then can't be challenged for a year - making her position even stronger.

So the ERG lot plough on "threatening" to put the letters in in an attempt to exert as much leverage as they can.

But it's hopeless for them as they simply don't have the numbers and everyone ultimately knows it.

Which is why the TMay exit odds are drifting.

The letters aren't going in because no-one has a bleeding clue about Brexit: not the PM who called an election to win a mandate for her vision of Brexit; not the ERG which (despite its name) apparently has done no research at all on the subject; not the ministers and ex-ministers who led the Leave side in the referendum.

If a vote were called, Theresa May would almost certainly lose, because everyone knows she is terrible and no Conservative MP wants to fight another election behind her. The problem for the letter-writers is that it is impossible to guess who would win the subsequent leadership race and become Prime Minister, what their take on Brexit would be, and whether that would be a good or bad thing. That's why the price is drifting.

You misunderstand the process. If the letters go in, even at best JRM group would get max of 25-30% and May 70 - 75% . It then follows that May is safe for another year so an actual leadership contest would entirely depend on May resigning and she shows no signs of that. She is a bloody difficult woman

No, you misunderstand the process. If the letters go in, it is a vote on Theresa May only. It is not a vote on Theresa May versus JRM. That's why May will lose.

The reason no-one wants to risk a contest is not that May would win and be safe for another year. She would not. The problem is that whoever wins the subsequent (and quite separate) race for the leadership will be safe for five years, and the Moggites can't risk it being Hammond, the Goveites can't risk Boris winning, and so on through all the contenders.

I do not know if you are a member but I am and the point I was making is that the anti May mps account for approx 25 - 30% of the MP's and the pro May the rest

If a VNOC was held May would get 200- 230 and anti May 86 - 116 - so May wins and end to the story

There will not be a subsequent and separate vote unless May resigns and it then becomes a leadership race

Well there's the difference between us: I do not think there is a pro-May faction. She survives only because the anti-May majority is splintered behind many rivals and none.

HYUFD said:

ralphmalph said:

nielh said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Yorkcity said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Yorkcity said:

GIN1138 said:

HYUFD said:

The reason Mogg is back as favourite is last weekend's Tory members YouGov poll which had Mogg beating all rival Tory leadership contenders. Javid beat all rivals bar Mogg (and Davidson who he tied) and hence is second and Gove beat all rivals bar Javid, Mogg and Davidson hence he is third as Davidson is not an MP. So if Mogg does not succeed May it will likely be as the MPs keep him out of the final two, though he may not stand anyway but back Boris instead.

Boris beat Hunt, Williamson and Mordaunt but as it was taken pre his resignation over Chequers and Gove's decision to back May's deal I expect Boris would now beat Gove.


https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/07/09/leave-voting-conservative-party-members-are-starti/

Yeah and what you need to think is where JRM's numbers go if he/when he says he's not standing and endorses Boris - Despite what people think I genuinely think JRM is serious when he says he doesn't want to be leader and an MP can't become PM from the backbenches.

I can understand why the Conservative members like him.

He always seems very principled and polite and very clear in his views, especially over Brexit.

But like all his group they have not told us how they would manage a hard Brexit.

I posed the question to HYFUFD rbyn

For me it is May's Brexit or remain or unless someone can provide a thought through and coherrent path through a hard border

I agree with you Big G.

However the centrist way , in many areas, is seen as a sellout to the true believers.

The pro Trump rally today clashing with the Anti Fascist rally in London today showed all the hate and prejeudice from both sides that fills you with foreboding.

The alt right and hard left are becoming a very real threat to the vast majority of us who live in the centre

It is becoming a question of which tyranny do you prefer.
There is no centrist option. I dont see it coming from anywhere.

The centrist option was killed of by extremists saying they were in the centre. Warmongering, largest crash in the economy since the 30's, debt through the roof, etc.

Never fear centrists, there is always the LDs and Vince Cable if the next general election is Mogg or Boris v Corbyn. Though on second thoughts....

You just talk rubbish at times.

A large part of the conservative party is in the centre, it is the Brexiteers who think they have taken over the party think like that

surby said:

May will stay on now unless the government itself falls for the same reasons as in June 2017. There is no one else at the moment.

The government could go when this white paper is brought before Parliament [ assuming it is untouched by the EU - very unlikely ] as Labour will not be supporting it and neither will the ERG.

There’s a huge dilemma coming up for Labour. For how long to they continue to vote against the deal, whatever it may be, knowing that the absence of a deal leads to a crash out on 30th March?

Sandpit said:

surby said:

May will stay on now unless the government itself falls for the same reasons as in June 2017. There is no one else at the moment.

The government could go when this white paper is brought before Parliament [ assuming it is untouched by the EU - very unlikely ] as Labour will not be supporting it and neither will the ERG.

There’s a huge dilemma coming up for Labour. For how long to they continue to vote against the deal, whatever it may be, knowing that the absence of a deal leads to a crash out on 30th March?

For as long as they can keep blaming the Tories for being useless and divided.

Edit: This is the legacy of Soubry, Morgan, Grieve et al.

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1018186123825373185

May’s leadership ratings have also nosedived, while those of Jeremy Corbyn have remained stable. May’s net approval rating – when the number of people who disapprove of the way she is leading the country is subtracted from the number who approve – has tumbled from -8% in June to -24% over a turbulent political period of just five weeks.

She is now well behind Corbyn who is on -12%, little changed from -13% last month.

Overall the poll findings suggest that the turmoil in government caused by Brexit, which led last week to the resignations of foreign secretary Boris Johnson and Brexit secretary David Davis, is having a more significant effect on how the public view the different political parties and their willingness to support them, than has been the case so far. About 51% of people now think Brexit is one of the most important issues facing the country – the highest percentage recorded so far by Opinium – and up markedly from 42% last month.

May now has the lowest approval rating specifically on her handling of Brexit since Opinium starting polling on the issue. Just 25% currently approve of the way she is handling Brexit, down from 30% last month, while 56% disapprove, up from 45% last month.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

The pro Trump rally today clashing with the Anti Fascist rally in London today showed all the hate and prejeudice from both sides that fills you with foreboding.

The alt right and hard left are becoming a very real threat to the vast majority of us who live in the centre

Well said.

However: too many 'centrists' have a tendency to excuse excesses by the extremes of their own side, perhaps because those on the other side of the political divide label *all* their opponents the same. Hence all Conservatives are baby-eating Farage followers, and all Labour peeps are Commy- and IRA- supporting fools.

We see this with Labour's anti-Semitism issues, which too many Labour followers excused, and then pointed at the Conservatives and said: "See! you have problems too!"

It's like kids in a playground saying: "You stink!" "No! You stink!"
When the real answer is: "Hmmm. Perhaps we both ought to have a wash..."

The centrists should be shouting about the extremes on both sides, even if they're marginally on one side. SO does this IMO.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fifty percent of voters think the electorate should be given a public, or people’s vote – another referendum – on any final deal that is bought back from Brussels by May, against 33% who do not.

It's rather misleading for that article to combine together people who support a new In/Out referendum (25%), and people who support a Deal/No Deal referendum (also 25%), into one figure supposedly supporting a "people's vote".

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sandpit said:

Danny565 said:

Labour opens up biggest lead over Tories since general election

The latest Opinium poll for the Observer puts Labour on 40%, the same score as last month, but four points ahead of the Tories who have dropped by six points since early June to 36%. The fall in Tory support would appear to be the result of Conservative supporters who backed leaving the EU turning to Ukip, whose support has shot up by 5pts from 3% last month to 8%.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/14/labour-opens-up-biggest-lead-over-tories-since-general-election

Ouch for the PM.

Fairly predictable

TheScreamingEagles said:

May’s leadership ratings have also nosedived, while those of Jeremy Corbyn have remained stable. May’s net approval rating – when the number of people who disapprove of the way she is leading the country is subtracted from the number who approve – has tumbled from -8% in June to -24% over a turbulent political period of just five weeks.

She is now well behind Corbyn who is on -12%, little changed from -13% last month.

Overall the poll findings suggest that the turmoil in government caused by Brexit, which led last week to the resignations of foreign secretary Boris Johnson and Brexit secretary David Davis, is having a more significant effect on how the public view the different political parties and their willingness to support them, than has been the case so far. About 51% of people now think Brexit is one of the most important issues facing the country – the highest percentage recorded so far by Opinium – and up markedly from 42% last month.

May now has the lowest approval rating specifically on her handling of Brexit since Opinium starting polling on the issue. Just 25% currently approve of the way she is handling Brexit, down from 30% last month, while 56% disapprove, up from 45% last month.

If the Torres didn’t lose votes after the last two weeks something would be seriously wrong. The price you pay for division and getting off the fence.

The big questions are how far will May fall and how will backbenchers react.

Danny565 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fifty percent of voters think the electorate should be given a public, or people’s vote – another referendum – on any final deal that is bought back from Brussels by May, against 33% who do not.

It's rather misleading for that article to combine together people who support a new In/Out referendum (25%), and people who support a Deal/No Deal referendum (also 25%), into one figure supposedly supporting a "people's vote".

Why? If half the population think that the Brexit deal needs additional ratification, failing to get it will undermine its legitimacy regardless of the differing reasoning of those who feel that way.

Jonathan said:

The big questions are how far will May fall and how will backbenchers react.

Agree

surby said:

Yorkcity said:

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

England lose 3 games at a World Cup.

Worst ever?

No still our joint 2nd best ever along with 1990 (where we also lost the 3rd place playoff) after 1966. We won 4, lost 2. In 2014 we lost 2 and drew one and did not win a single match

So, yes, our worst ever tournament in terms of number of defeats.

(I realise that using statistics in this way is just as daft as saying that May in 2017 did better than Cameron in 2015 on the basis of vote share)

1982 we lost none.
Came home undefeated .
Different format in those days as they had two group stages .
Then the final.

How many goals did we score from open play ? How many shots "on target" in the whole tournament ?

In this world cup ?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_FIFA_World_Cup

The differing format in ,1982 , was two group stages , then into the semi final
Only world cup alongside 1966 England went undefeated.

Danny565 said:

Danny565 said:

Labour opens up biggest lead over Tories since general election

The latest Opinium poll for the Observer puts Labour on 40%, the same score as last month, but four points ahead of the Tories who have dropped by six points since early June to 36%. The fall in Tory support would appear to be the result of Conservative supporters who backed leaving the EU turning to Ukip, whose support has shot up by 5pts from 3% last month to 8%.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/14/labour-opens-up-biggest-lead-over-tories-since-general-election

Summary: Mrs May has made a right pig's ear of things.

This was always going to happen. There is no Brexit that can deliver what voters were promised. It's just that different people will feel betrayed by different things. The key for the Tories is whether this is a one-off reaction of the start of some level of drift.

Jonathan said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

SandyRentool said:

England lose 3 games at a World Cup.

Worst ever?

No still our joint 2nd best ever along with 1990 (where we also lost the 3rd place playoff) after 1966. We won 4, lost 2. In 2014 we lost 2 and drew one and did not win a single match

So, yes, our worst ever tournament in terms of number of defeats.

(I realise that using statistics in this way is just as daft as saying that May in 2017 did better than Cameron in 2015 on the basis of vote share)

On that basis IDS was one of the best ever Tory leaders as he never lost a general election

Whenever we reach the semi-finals, it's normally under Tory PMs:

1990 WC
1996 EC
2018 WC

We know the Tories give you semis Sunil.

True. WE only win under Labour.

One piece of reasonable news for May is that the public is split 32/32 on Chequers.

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1018186123825373185

KABOOOOOOOMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!

Exactly as I predicted. Labour unchanged but all the main movement Tory to UKIP, Tories down 4% and UKIP up 5%. Within a week UKIP have seen a quicker revival than Lazarus and gone from near dead to tied with the LDs.

If these polls become a trend they will certainly boost the potential leadership candidacies of Boris and Mogg

SouthamObserver said:

Danny565 said:

Danny565 said:

Labour opens up biggest lead over Tories since general election

The latest Opinium poll for the Observer puts Labour on 40%, the same score as last month, but four points ahead of the Tories who have dropped by six points since early June to 36%. The fall in Tory support would appear to be the result of Conservative supporters who backed leaving the EU turning to Ukip, whose support has shot up by 5pts from 3% last month to 8%.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/14/labour-opens-up-biggest-lead-over-tories-since-general-election

Summary: Mrs May has made a right pig's ear of things.

This was always going to happen. There is no Brexit that can deliver what voters were promised. It's just that different people will feel betrayed by different things. The key for the Tories is whether this is a one-off reaction of the start of some level of drift.

May got off the fence. This was bound to happen, which ever way they jumped. The important thing was to jump.

TheScreamingEagles said:

May’s leadership ratings have also nosedived, while those of Jeremy Corbyn have remained stable. May’s net approval rating – when the number of people who disapprove of the way she is leading the country is subtracted from the number who approve – has tumbled from -8% in June to -24% over a turbulent political period of just five weeks.

She is now well behind Corbyn who is on -12%, little changed from -13% last month.

Overall the poll findings suggest that the turmoil in government caused by Brexit, which led last week to the resignations of foreign secretary Boris Johnson and Brexit secretary David Davis, is having a more significant effect on how the public view the different political parties and their willingness to support them, than has been the case so far. About 51% of people now think Brexit is one of the most important issues facing the country – the highest percentage recorded so far by Opinium – and up markedly from 42% last month.

May now has the lowest approval rating specifically on her handling of Brexit since Opinium starting polling on the issue. Just 25% currently approve of the way she is handling Brexit, down from 30% last month, while 56% disapprove, up from 45% last month.

TheScreamingEagles said:

May’s leadership ratings have also nosedived, while those of Jeremy Corbyn have remained stable. May’s net approval rating – when the number of people who disapprove of the way she is leading the country is subtracted from the number who approve – has tumbled from -8% in June to -24% over a turbulent political period of just five weeks.

She is now well behind Corbyn who is on -12%, little changed from -13% last month.

Overall the poll findings suggest that the turmoil in government caused by Brexit, which led last week to the resignations of foreign secretary Boris Johnson and Brexit secretary David Davis, is having a more significant effect on how the public view the different political parties and their willingness to support them, than has been the case so far. About 51% of people now think Brexit is one of the most important issues facing the country – the highest percentage recorded so far by Opinium – and up markedly from 42% last month.

May now has the lowest approval rating specifically on her handling of Brexit since Opinium starting polling on the issue. Just 25% currently approve of the way she is handling Brexit, down from 30% last month, while 56% disapprove, up from 45% last month.

I thought May had a good week , well from my perspective.
Obviously not .

Sean_F said:

One piece of reasonable news for May is that the public is split 32/32 on Chequers.

Except most that are against it usually vote Conservative.