"But instead of adopting the definition as agreed by all these bodies, Labour has excised the parts which relate to Israel and how criticism of Israel can be antisemitic."
...
"Labour is now institutionally antisemitic. "
And presumably when in Government will enforce their version on the CPS and courts, who iirc make use of the internationally agreed one.
Glancing at Twitter, I wonder if May's intention is a second referendum with the choice being what seems to be (only glanced, so I could be wrong) a craven, subservient vassal state deal, or remaining.
I think it would be her option vs no deal. I don't think she would be stupid enough to put remain back on the agenda.
Why wouldn't she? I assume you are part of the Boris "fuck business" tendency.
I guess that makes you and other arch-Remainers part of the “fuck democracy” tendency.
You said yourself it was in the interests of the Conservative party to have a second referendum. That can hardly be a democratic exercise if the option favoured by over half the electorate isn't on the ballot paper.
The US requirements for an FTA requires that we - as a country - effectively move from a Brussels standards orbit to a Washington one.
That would be a little bit like switching horses mid-apocalypse.
Yes -- it should always have been obvious that we cannot simultaneously have FTAs with America and Europe because their terms are simply not compatible. There's a debate to be had about whether we want FTAs at all but we can't have both.
Mr. Glenn/Mr. Max, if we leave, returning has some big obstacles, not least the single currency, Schengen etc. Far easier for those of an EU-phile tendency to try and keep us in now.
I would rather be fully in with Schengen, Euro, the lot, than the existing tepid EU membership we enjoy.
Well done. Have you earned a few quid? Enough to buy a speedboat?
Yep, this is my second exit in five years, as we folded into Globe a while back. I am (was) a minority shareholder, but now sorted for life. It's a wonderful feeling. Not sure about a speedboat. I kind of like the idea of a place by the sea, though. Somewhere in Dorset or Devon.
Devon is rather wonderful.....but south, not north. Happy to show you around.
Whats wrong with North Devon, seemed very pleasent when I visited
Glancing at Twitter, I wonder if May's intention is a second referendum with the choice being what seems to be (only glanced, so I could be wrong) a craven, subservient vassal state deal, or remaining.
I think it would be her option vs no deal. I don't think she would be stupid enough to put remain back on the agenda.
Why wouldn't she? I assume you are part of the Boris "fuck business" tendency.
Because the party would never wear it. I'm sure to a Lib Dem it looks like a fantastic idea, to a Tory it looks like the death of the party.
The Tory party was the party that applied to join, then successfully joined a decade later, then established the single market, then ratified the treaty creating the EU. It's the Brexiteers who are the unconservative aberration.
Well done. Have you earned a few quid? Enough to buy a speedboat?
Yep, this is my second exit in five years, as we folded into Globe a while back. I am (was) a minority shareholder, but now sorted for life. It's a wonderful feeling. Not sure about a speedboat. I kind of like the idea of a place by the sea, though. Somewhere in Dorset or Devon.
Devon is rather wonderful.....but south, not north. Happy to show you around.
Whats wrong with North Devon, seemed very pleasent when I visited
Glancing at Twitter, I wonder if May's intention is a second referendum with the choice being what seems to be (only glanced, so I could be wrong) a craven, subservient vassal state deal, or remaining.
I think it would be her option vs no deal. I don't think she would be stupid enough to put remain back on the agenda.
Why wouldn't she? I assume you are part of the Boris "fuck business" tendency.
I guess that makes you and other arch-Remainers part of the “fuck democracy” tendency.
But you lot said there'd be nowt sunlit uplands from Brexit especially for business.
Like Mrs Thatcher, Mrs May is putting British business first.
Glancing at Twitter, I wonder if May's intention is a second referendum with the choice being what seems to be (only glanced, so I could be wrong) a craven, subservient vassal state deal, or remaining.
I think it would be her option vs no deal. I don't think she would be stupid enough to put remain back on the agenda.
Why wouldn't she? I assume you are part of the Boris "fuck business" tendency.
Because the party would never wear it. I'm sure to a Lib Dem it looks like a fantastic idea, to a Tory it looks like the death of the party.
The Tory party was the party that applied to join, then successfully joined a decade later, then established the single market, then ratified the treaty creating the EU. It's the Brexiteers who are the unconservative aberration.
You are right about the history. But that is a different Tory party to todays. Ken Clarke is the sole survivor of that world. The past is a foreign country and all that.
Glancing at Twitter, I wonder if May's intention is a second referendum with the choice being what seems to be (only glanced, so I could be wrong) a craven, subservient vassal state deal, or remaining.
I think it would be her option vs no deal. I don't think she would be stupid enough to put remain back on the agenda.
Why wouldn't she? I assume you are part of the Boris "fuck business" tendency.
I guess that makes you and other arch-Remainers part of the “fuck democracy” tendency.
You said yourself it was in the interests of the Conservative party to have a second referendum. That can hardly be a democratic exercise if the option favoured by over half the electorate isn't on the ballot paper.
A temporary aberration. As another said, it would destroy the party.
The leaflet sent to every house in Britain said what the people decided would be honoured. There is no way back from that.
Glancing at Twitter, I wonder if May's intention is a second referendum with the choice being what seems to be (only glanced, so I could be wrong) a craven, subservient vassal state deal, or remaining.
I think it would be her option vs no deal. I don't think she would be stupid enough to put remain back on the agenda.
Why wouldn't she? I assume you are part of the Boris "fuck business" tendency.
Because the party would never wear it. I'm sure to a Lib Dem it looks like a fantastic idea, to a Tory it looks like the death of the party.
The Tory party was the party that applied to join, then successfully joined a decade later, then established the single market, then ratified the treaty creating the EU. It's the Brexiteers who are the unconservative aberration.
That Tory party is dead. It died when we left the ERM and it's never coming back. The membership are vast majority leave, the MPs are leave or sceptics, only the leadership is remain, and they are increasingly out of touch with the party.
"But instead of adopting the definition as agreed by all these bodies, Labour has excised the parts which relate to Israel and how criticism of Israel can be antisemitic."
...
"Labour is now institutionally antisemitic. "
As were usually told it's not about Israel it does seem strange that the complaints are that Labour passed all the anti anti Jewish parts but not the parts that mention criticism of Israel.
Interesting article Mr Meeks, good read. Also grats Southam, may your new found wealth keep you distracted from politics
"But instead of adopting the definition as agreed by all these bodies, Labour has excised the parts which relate to Israel and how criticism of Israel can be antisemitic."
...
"Labour is now institutionally antisemitic. "
As were usually told it's not about Israel it does seem strange that the complaints are that Labour passed all the anti anti Jewish parts but not the parts that mention criticism of Israel.
Interesting article Mr Meeks, good read. Also grats Southam, may your new found wealth keep you distracted from politics
Read the full article, they make it very clear that one can criticize Israel under the widely accepted definitions, just Labour have decided to remove those parts and thus allowing screaming Zio at people without having to worry that your membership might be at stake.
Sounds like we are about to find out once and for all how serious the hard Brexit right are in the Tories. They've run out of threats and have to deliver on them or find some weasel words for living with the latest 'cup of sick.'
Not a lot of sympathy from me - they've had 2 years to come up with anything vaguely workable and got nowhere close. So the only workable option may well be much softer than promised. Not sure i would be putting any money on the likes of Esther McVey being next out of cabinet. Surely one leadership contender in these circumstances (Liam Fox?) will think their best chance is to stand down, accuse of betrayal and spend the next x years saying how much better it would have been done their way.
Glancing at Twitter, I wonder if May's intention is a second referendum with the choice being what seems to be (only glanced, so I could be wrong) a craven, subservient vassal state deal, or remaining.
I think it would be her option vs no deal. I don't think she would be stupid enough to put remain back on the agenda.
Why wouldn't she? I assume you are part of the Boris "fuck business" tendency.
Because the party would never wear it. I'm sure to a Lib Dem it looks like a fantastic idea, to a Tory it looks like the death of the party.
The Tory party was the party that applied to join, then successfully joined a decade later, then established the single market, then ratified the treaty creating the EU. It's the Brexiteers who are the unconservative aberration.
The Tory party was at various times the party of the Church of England, of landowners, of the British Empire, and of EU membership. But, times, and personnel, change.
Glancing at Twitter, I wonder if May's intention is a second referendum with the choice being what seems to be (only glanced, so I could be wrong) a craven, subservient vassal state deal, or remaining.
I think it would be her option vs no deal. I don't think she would be stupid enough to put remain back on the agenda.
Why wouldn't she? I assume you are part of the Boris "fuck business" tendency.
I guess that makes you and other arch-Remainers part of the “fuck democracy” tendency.
But you lot said there'd be nowt sunlit uplands from Brexit especially for business.
Like Mrs Thatcher, Mrs May is putting British business first.
I didn’t. Many Leavers I canvassed said they realised it would be economically rocky for the first few years. We voted Leave despite that.
Glancing at Twitter, I wonder if May's intention is a second referendum with the choice being what seems to be (only glanced, so I could be wrong) a craven, subservient vassal state deal, or remaining.
I think it would be her option vs no deal. I don't think she would be stupid enough to put remain back on the agenda.
Why wouldn't she? I assume you are part of the Boris "fuck business" tendency.
Because the party would never wear it. I'm sure to a Lib Dem it looks like a fantastic idea, to a Tory it looks like the death of the party.
The Tory party was the party that applied to join, then successfully joined a decade later, then established the single market, then ratified the treaty creating the EU. It's the Brexiteers who are the unconservative aberration.
That Tory party is dead. It died when we left the ERM and it's never coming back. The membership are vast majority leave, the MPs are leave or sceptics, only the leadership is remain, and they are increasingly out of touch with the party.
That transformation was only sustainable for as long as Leave retained the pure idealism of fantasy politics. It's now colliding into a brick wall, and the present Tory party that delivered it will take the force of the impact. The only way back is to revert to what it was before the Eurosceptic spell took over the party.
Glancing at Twitter, I wonder if May's intention is a second referendum with the choice being what seems to be (only glanced, so I could be wrong) a craven, subservient vassal state deal, or remaining.
I think it would be her option vs no deal. I don't think she would be stupid enough to put remain back on the agenda.
Why wouldn't she? I assume you are part of the Boris "fuck business" tendency.
I guess that makes you and other arch-Remainers part of the “fuck democracy” tendency.
But you lot said there'd be nowt sunlit uplands from Brexit especially for business.
Like Mrs Thatcher, Mrs May is putting British business first.
I didn’t. Many Leavers I canvassed said they realised it would be economically rocky for the first few years. We voted Leave despite that.
I'm talking about the front men and women of the Leave campaign.
several dozen of the 10,000 people they employ in London....I bet many multiples of that relocate in and out of their various offices around the world every month.
We know what the banks are doing, they are setting up small satellite offices in Europe.
Glancing at Twitter, I wonder if May's intention is a second referendum with the choice being what seems to be (only glanced, so I could be wrong) a craven, subservient vassal state deal, or remaining.
I think it would be her option vs no deal. I don't think she would be stupid enough to put remain back on the agenda.
Why wouldn't she? I assume you are part of the Boris "fuck business" tendency.
I guess that makes you and other arch-Remainers part of the “fuck democracy” tendency.
I find the Damascene conversion of the PB Tory/Brexiteer axis to the merits of democracy so refreshing after hearing years of complaining about magic money trees whenever the electorate voted for or even appeared to be leaning towards any left-wing option. I trust that if they do get a hard Brexit that they will accept the will of the people without complaint as the tender mercies of the inevitable Corbyn/McDonnell government that would come after are applied to them.
Glancing at Twitter, I wonder if May's intention is a second referendum with the choice being what seems to be (only glanced, so I could be wrong) a craven, subservient vassal state deal, or remaining.
I think it would be her option vs no deal. I don't think she would be stupid enough to put remain back on the agenda.
Why wouldn't she? I assume you are part of the Boris "fuck business" tendency.
Because the party would never wear it. I'm sure to a Lib Dem it looks like a fantastic idea, to a Tory it looks like the death of the party.
The Tory party was the party that applied to join, then successfully joined a decade later, then established the single market, then ratified the treaty creating the EU. It's the Brexiteers who are the unconservative aberration.
That Tory party is dead. It died when we left the ERM and it's never coming back. The membership are vast majority leave, the MPs are leave or sceptics, only the leadership is remain, and they are increasingly out of touch with the party.
That transformation was only sustainable for as long as Leave retained the pure idealism of fantasy politics. It's now colliding into a brick wall, and the present Tory party that delivered it will take the force of the impact. The only way back is to revert to what it was before the Eurosceptic spell took over the party.
Internally we're still moving towards a more sceptical and leave position. Since you're not a member, I guess you don't realise. If you think TSE is the average Tory member then you've not been paying attention.
Sounds like we are about to find out once and for all how serious the hard Brexit right are in the Tories. They've run out of threats and have to deliver on them or find some weasel words for living with the latest 'cup of sick.'
Not a lot of sympathy from me - they've had 2 years to come up with anything vaguely workable and got nowhere close. So the only workable option may well be much softer than promised. Not sure i would be putting any money on the likes of Esther McVey being next out of cabinet. Surely one leadership contender in these circumstances (Liam Fox?) will think their best chance is to stand down, accuse of betrayal and spend the next x years saying how much better it would have been done their way.
That doesn't work. If a minister resigns now on a matter of principle, that puts immense pressure on the other Leave ministers to do likewise, unless the resignation prompts an abrupt and huge U-turn from May. If other ministers resign, that puts immense pressure on MPs to place and then vote through a VoNC - in which case the resigning ministers will presumable get a chance to do it 'their way' (or more of a chance anyway).
She doesn't have to rule it out, it's a natural consequence of her choices.
For what it's worth, if the EU could accept her offer, it would be a good balance between protecting the economy and fulfilling Brexit. Trade deals were always second fiddle to the issues of EU budget contributions, political union and freedom of movement.
Sounds like we are about to find out once and for all how serious the hard Brexit right are in the Tories. They've run out of threats and have to deliver on them or find some weasel words for living with the latest 'cup of sick.'
Not a lot of sympathy from me - they've had 2 years to come up with anything vaguely workable and got nowhere close. So the only workable option may well be much softer than promised. Not sure i would be putting any money on the likes of Esther McVey being next out of cabinet. Surely one leadership contender in these circumstances (Liam Fox?) will think their best chance is to stand down, accuse of betrayal and spend the next x years saying how much better it would have been done their way.
Gove's position seems to be that its better to get any form of Brexit, no matter how 'bad', because then we're out and can diverge/ harden our Brexit at a later date.
But the risk seems to be that that we get stuck in a 'bad' Brexit, which is worse for us than when we were in the EU or end up rejoining under worse terms than we had before.
.....there are no serious legal reasons to exclude a Brexit deal with single market on goods and partial free movement of people (but with the proper institutional guarantees). Obstacles are political, and if people want to create them, they should justify them as such. For my part, I fail to see why we should refuse by principle to grant the UK the flexibility we have granted to Ukraine. No more, no less.
Glancing at Twitter, I wonder if May's intention is a second referendum with the choice being what seems to be (only glanced, so I could be wrong) a craven, subservient vassal state deal, or remaining.
I think it would be her option vs no deal. I don't think she would be stupid enough to put remain back on the agenda.
Why wouldn't she? I assume you are part of the Boris "fuck business" tendency.
I guess that makes you and other arch-Remainers part of the “fuck democracy” tendency.
But you lot said there'd be nowt sunlit uplands from Brexit especially for business.
Like Mrs Thatcher, Mrs May is putting British business first.
I didn’t. Many Leavers I canvassed said they realised it would be economically rocky for the first few years. We voted Leave despite that.
Of course - that's why Osborne's short term economic impact of Brexit report was met with such appreciation by Leave.
A briefing from a British Brussels-based animal welfare lobbyist with good sources on both negotiating teams says:
1. HMG will be going for a 'Max Fac +++' option tomorrow. This is nothing more than a dialectical 'solution' to the Irish border, mixing the original 'Maximum Facilitation' model favoured by some in the Cabinet, plus the 'customs partnership model' favoured by others. Both schemes have been rejected by Brussels on at least two occasions. 2. HMG is lobbying heavily for the Commission not to reject this proposal out of hand - at least not immediately... 3. The Commission plans on doing so, and Barnier said privately that it will mark the turning point for the EU27 if this is the UK proposal, when the EU's baseline assumption will be for no deal and that they will begin to plan for such in earnest as the most likely outcome, and 4. Expect at least 2 Ministerial resignations. ----- Personally, my money is still on fudge winning the day, but it does sound pretty dicey.
Don't tell me you're wavering! I've been confidently predicting a deal the whole way through as well. Now I wonder if I should start to worry... although I must admit I find no deal absolutely intriguing from a 'what the hell would actually happen' perspective....
Glancing at Twitter, I wonder if May's intention is a second referendum with the choice being what seems to be (only glanced, so I could be wrong) a craven, subservient vassal state deal, or remaining.
I think it would be her option vs no deal. I don't think she would be stupid enough to put remain back on the agenda.
Why wouldn't she? I assume you are part of the Boris "fuck business" tendency.
Because the party would never wear it. I'm sure to a Lib Dem it looks like a fantastic idea, to a Tory it looks like the death of the party.
The Tory party was the party that applied to join, then successfully joined a decade later, then established the single market, then ratified the treaty creating the EU. It's the Brexiteers who are the unconservative aberration.
That Tory party is dead. It died when we left the ERM and it's never coming back. The membership are vast majority leave, the MPs are leave or sceptics, only the leadership is remain, and they are increasingly out of touch with the party.
That transformation was only sustainable for as long as Leave retained the pure idealism of fantasy politics. It's now colliding into a brick wall, and the present Tory party that delivered it will take the force of the impact. The only way back is to revert to what it was before the Eurosceptic spell took over the party.
Internally we're still moving towards a more sceptical and leave position. Since you're not a member, I guess you don't realise. If you think TSE is the average Tory member then you've not been paying attention.
More prosaically, a very large majority of Conservative voters now oppose EU membership, and many of the remainder have no liking for the EU. The constituency that was once represented by people like Ian Taylor, Derek Prag, Brendan Donnelly, Chris Patten doesn't exist anymore on the right.
Glancing at Twitter, I wonder if May's intention is a second referendum with the choice being what seems to be (only glanced, so I could be wrong) a craven, subservient vassal state deal, or remaining.
I think it would be her option vs no deal. I don't think she would be stupid enough to put remain back on the agenda.
Why wouldn't she? I assume you are part of the Boris "fuck business" tendency.
Because the party would never wear it. I'm sure to a Lib Dem it looks like a fantastic idea, to a Tory it looks like the death of the party.
The Tory party was the party that applied to join, then successfully joined a decade later, then established the single market, then ratified the treaty creating the EU. It's the Brexiteers who are the unconservative aberration.
Exactly so. I still find it hard to square seeing actual Tories espousing a policy that I associate with the far left. Let's hope they come back to their senses soon.
Exactly so. I still find it hard to square seeing actual Tories espousing a policy that I associate with the far left. Let's hope they come back to their senses soon.
She doesn't have to rule it out, it's a natural consequence of her choices.
For what it's worth, if the EU could accept her offer, it would be a good balance between protecting the economy and fulfilling Brexit. Trade deals were always second fiddle to the issues of EU budget contributions, political union and freedom of movement.
I think Barnier will say 'Non'.
Seems to me this gives UK benefits of single market, without the FoM bit.
Exactly so. I still find it hard to square seeing actual Tories espousing a policy that I associate with the far left. Let's hope they come back to their senses soon.
A briefing from a British Brussels-based animal welfare lobbyist with good sources on both negotiating teams says:
1. HMG will be going for a 'Max Fac +++' option tomorrow. This is nothing more than a dialectical 'solution' to the Irish border, mixing the original 'Maximum Facilitation' model favoured by some in the Cabinet, plus the 'customs partnership model' favoured by others. Both schemes have been rejected by Brussels on at least two occasions. 2. HMG is lobbying heavily for the Commission not to reject this proposal out of hand - at least not immediately... 3. The Commission plans on doing so, and Barnier said privately that it will mark the turning point for the EU27 if this is the UK proposal, when the EU's baseline assumption will be for no deal and that they will begin to plan for such in earnest as the most likely outcome, and 4. Expect at least 2 Ministerial resignations. ----- Personally, my money is still on fudge winning the day, but it does sound pretty dicey.
Don't tell me you're wavering! I've been confidently predicting a deal the whole way through as well. Now I wonder if I should start to worry... although I must admit I find no deal absolutely intriguing from a 'what the hell would actually happen' perspective....
Sounds like we are about to find out once and for all how serious the hard Brexit right are in the Tories. They've run out of threats and have to deliver on them or find some weasel words for living with the latest 'cup of sick.'
Not a lot of sympathy from me - they've had 2 years to come up with anything vaguely workable and got nowhere close. So the only workable option may well be much softer than promised. Not sure i would be putting any money on the likes of Esther McVey being next out of cabinet. Surely one leadership contender in these circumstances (Liam Fox?) will think their best chance is to stand down, accuse of betrayal and spend the next x years saying how much better it would have been done their way.
That doesn't work. If a minister resigns now on a matter of principle, that puts immense pressure on the other Leave ministers to do likewise, unless the resignation prompts an abrupt and huge U-turn from May. If other ministers resign, that puts immense pressure on MPs to place and then vote through a VoNC - in which case the resigning ministers will presumable get a chance to do it 'their way' (or more of a chance anyway).
You have more confidence in the spines of Brexit supporting ministers than I do! You're absolutely right that a resignation could set off a chain reaction and unpredictable events - but I could equally see the others making the argument that the likes of Michael Gove (as JonathanD says, the grown up in this group) and Andrew Percy are making, that this is the only way of getting out of the EEA, and they'll live with something that's much less than they wanted.
several dozen of the 10,000 people they employ in London....I bet many multiples of that relocate in and out of their various offices around the world every month.
We know what the banks are doing, they are setting up small satellite offices in Europe.
I heard the other day from a friend who works for JPM in Luxembourg that they're renting two full additional buildings there to accommodate business moving from London.
Sounds like we are about to find out once and for all how serious the hard Brexit right are in the Tories. They've run out of threats and have to deliver on them or find some weasel words for living with the latest 'cup of sick.'
Not a lot of sympathy from me - they've had 2 years to come up with anything vaguely workable and got nowhere close. So the only workable option may well be much softer than promised. Not sure i would be putting any money on the likes of Esther McVey being next out of cabinet. Surely one leadership contender in these circumstances (Liam Fox?) will think their best chance is to stand down, accuse of betrayal and spend the next x years saying how much better it would have been done their way.
That doesn't work. If a minister resigns now on a matter of principle, that puts immense pressure on the other Leave ministers to do likewise, unless the resignation prompts an abrupt and huge U-turn from May. If other ministers resign, that puts immense pressure on MPs to place and then vote through a VoNC - in which case the resigning ministers will presumable get a chance to do it 'their way' (or more of a chance anyway).
I don't think that any of your scenarios work either.
She doesn't have to rule it out, it's a natural consequence of her choices.
For what it's worth, if the EU could accept her offer, it would be a good balance between protecting the economy and fulfilling Brexit. Trade deals were always second fiddle to the issues of EU budget contributions, political union and freedom of movement.
I think Barnier will say 'Non'.
Seems to me this gives UK benefits of single market, without the FoM bit.
Barnier won't buy that.
If Barnier rejects a proposal that is tailor-made for TSE to provide the analogy as to the respective positions of the UK and EU, then there can be no Brexit deal.
several dozen of the 10,000 people they employ in London....I bet many multiples of that relocate in and out of their various offices around the world every month.
We know what the banks are doing, they are setting up small satellite offices in Europe.
I heard the other day from a friend who works for JPM in Luxembourg that they're renting two full additional buildings there to accommodate business moving from London.
Could lead to some much needed affordability returning to the London housing market.
A briefing from a British Brussels-based animal welfare lobbyist with good sources on both negotiating teams says:
1. HMG will be going for a 'Max Fac +++' option tomorrow. This is nothing more than a dialectical 'solution' to the Irish border, mixing the original 'Maximum Facilitation' model favoured by some in the Cabinet, plus the 'customs partnership model' favoured by others. Both schemes have been rejected by Brussels on at least two occasions. 2. HMG is lobbying heavily for the Commission not to reject this proposal out of hand - at least not immediately... 3. The Commission plans on doing so, and Barnier said privately that it will mark the turning point for the EU27 if this is the UK proposal, when the EU's baseline assumption will be for no deal and that they will begin to plan for such in earnest as the most likely outcome, and 4. Expect at least 2 Ministerial resignations. ----- Personally, my money is still on fudge winning the day, but it does sound pretty dicey.
Don't tell me you're wavering! I've been confidently predicting a deal the whole way through as well. Now I wonder if I should start to worry... although I must admit I find no deal absolutely intriguing from a 'what the hell would actually happen' perspective....
"hell would actually happen"
Fairly sure that would prove to be an exaggeration! Paul Krugman has a nice post on why Brexit has a disproportionately greater impact on the economy than a Trump trade war for the same level of trade affected.
A briefing from a British Brussels-based animal welfare lobbyist with good sources on both negotiating teams says:
1. HMG will be going for a 'Max Fac +++' option tomorrow. This is nothing more than a dialectical 'solution' to the Irish border, mixing the original 'Maximum Facilitation' model favoured by some in the Cabinet, plus the 'customs partnership model' favoured by others. Both schemes have been rejected by Brussels on at least two occasions. 2. HMG is lobbying heavily for the Commission not to reject this proposal out of hand - at least not immediately... 3. The Commission plans on doing so, and Barnier said privately that it will mark the turning point for the EU27 if this is the UK proposal, when the EU's baseline assumption will be for no deal and that they will begin to plan for such in earnest as the most likely outcome, and 4. Expect at least 2 Ministerial resignations. ----- Personally, my money is still on fudge winning the day, but it does sound pretty dicey.
Don't tell me you're wavering! I've been confidently predicting a deal the whole way through as well. Now I wonder if I should start to worry... although I must admit I find no deal absolutely intriguing from a 'what the hell would actually happen' perspective....
"hell would actually happen"
Fairly sure that would prove to be an exaggeration! Paul Krugman has a nice post on why Brexit has a disproportionately greater impact on the economy than a Trump trade war for the same level of trade affected.
Shows what happens when you take a quote out of context. In full it was: " 'what the hell would actually happen' " Apologies.
Sounds like we are about to find out once and for all how serious the hard Brexit right are in the Tories. They've run out of threats and have to deliver on them or find some weasel words for living with the latest 'cup of sick.'
Not a lot of sympathy from me - they've had 2 years to come up with anything vaguely workable and got nowhere close. So the only workable option may well be much softer than promised. Not sure i would be putting any money on the likes of Esther McVey being next out of cabinet. Surely one leadership contender in these circumstances (Liam Fox?) will think their best chance is to stand down, accuse of betrayal and spend the next x years saying how much better it would have been done their way.
That doesn't work. If a minister resigns now on a matter of principle, that puts immense pressure on the other Leave ministers to do likewise, unless the resignation prompts an abrupt and huge U-turn from May. If other ministers resign, that puts immense pressure on MPs to place and then vote through a VoNC - in which case the resigning ministers will presumable get a chance to do it 'their way' (or more of a chance anyway).
I don't think that any of your scenarios work either.
Mr. Sandpit, to be fair, UK houses don't generally have aircon. I do appreciate and acknowledge, however, that your place (Abu Dhabi?) is a smidgen warmer/more humid than Yorkshire.
Edited extra bit: incidentally, I've put a little on Hartley to not be classified at 2.75. He's got 4/9 DNFs so far. Mild value.
Recently sat opposite this delightful looking old gent on the train. Must have been late 80s-90yrs. Started to read facist/far-right books/mags from his nap sack.
There does seem to be a bubbling undercurrent of far-right sentiment in the UK.
And I'm sure the old dude had only become racist since Brexit. Shit, what have we done.
Brexit has empowered him and millions like him to 'come out'
I think "No Deal" is a certainty now as the EU will not give any ground at all. I think May knows this and will say she has tried to be as reasonable as possible with the EU but they will not budge hence the No Deal. Due to this parliament will approve it.
The good news is that this incident now appears linked to the Skripal case. The bad news is that they might have to wash down half of Salisbury!
Pleased I’m not there at the moment, friends are saying that the place is as crawling with police and cordoned off areas now, as it was at the height of the previous incident.
I think "No Deal" is a certainty now as the EU will not give any ground at all. I think May knows this and will say she has tried to be as reasonable as possible with the EU but they will not budge hence the No Deal. Due to this parliament will approve it.
It's too late for no deal without crashing the economy. There is not enough time left to prepare for it. Unless May is deluded enough to think the EU will accept her plan (and based on her previous form that is a possibility) i can only conclude that her plan is to force the Brexiteers to flounce now, then when the EU says non, agree with the Remainers that the only option left is EEA+.
I think "No Deal" is a certainty now as the EU will not give any ground at all. I think May knows this and will say she has tried to be as reasonable as possible with the EU but they will not budge hence the No Deal. Due to this parliament will approve it.
It's too late for no deal without crashing the economy. There is not enough time left to prepare for it. Unless May is deluded enough to think the EU will accept her plan (and based on her previous form that is a possibility) i can only conclude that her plan is to force the Brexiteers to flounce now, then when the EU says non, agree with the Remainers that the only option left is EEA+.
I think "No Deal" is a certainty now as the EU will not give any ground at all. I think May knows this and will say she has tried to be as reasonable as possible with the EU but they will not budge hence the No Deal. Due to this parliament will approve it.
It's too late for no deal without crashing the economy. There is not enough time left to prepare for it. Unless May is deluded enough to think the EU will accept her plan (and based on her previous form that is a possibility) i can only conclude that her plan is to force the Brexiteers to flounce now, then when the EU says non, agree with the Remainers that the only option left is EEA+.
That cant happen as it will be electoral suicide.
Whereas a no deal car crash brexit could conceivably lead to the government being ousted by civil disturbance.
I think "No Deal" is a certainty now as the EU will not give any ground at all. I think May knows this and will say she has tried to be as reasonable as possible with the EU but they will not budge hence the No Deal. Due to this parliament will approve it.
May is not brave enough to do that.
A deal vs no deal referendum, on the other hand, is a possibility.
I'm still pinning my hopes on the idea that this is all just political theatre: at the eleventh hour Theresa, Barnier, Boris and Rees-Mogg will stride out arm and arm and declare, amid beaming smiles, that everything's agreed and has been for months and months.
I think "No Deal" is a certainty now as the EU will not give any ground at all. I think May knows this and will say she has tried to be as reasonable as possible with the EU but they will not budge hence the No Deal. Due to this parliament will approve it.
There's no chance of no deal Brexit without a minimum two year extension of A50.
I think "No Deal" is a certainty now as the EU will not give any ground at all. I think May knows this and will say she has tried to be as reasonable as possible with the EU but they will not budge hence the No Deal. Due to this parliament will approve it.
May is not brave enough to do that.
A deal vs no deal referendum, on the other hand, is a possibility.
Putting No Deal on the ballot paper would be humiliating because it couldn't happen. It would make the Tories look like Syriza.
Mr. Sandpit, to be fair, UK houses don't generally have aircon. I do appreciate and acknowledge, however, that your place (Abu Dhabi?) is a smidgen warmer/more humid than Yorkshire.
Edited extra bit: incidentally, I've put a little on Hartley to not be classified at 2.75. He's got 4/9 DNFs so far. Mild value.
Dubai, 60 miles away. We are the ones who don’t like the Flintstones (but Abu Dhabi dooo!).
45°C and 70% here today, yes my flat and car are air conditioned but some days they struggle...
Okay, I’ll follow you in for half a stake on Hartley if I can find a way of placing the bet.
I think "No Deal" is a certainty now as the EU will not give any ground at all. I think May knows this and will say she has tried to be as reasonable as possible with the EU but they will not budge hence the No Deal. Due to this parliament will approve it.
There's no chance of no deal Brexit without a minimum two year extension of A50.
That could happen, both sides could agree that there is no chance of any agreement hence a no deal situation and the two years will give enough time to prepare for it.
Nonsense comment piece. There's a tiny tiny minority of right wing nutters.
The common purpose infected establishment as personified by Cressida Dick are doing all they can to create some kind of equivalence with black on black knife crime and Pakistani rape gangs, so they can stick with their PC agenda.
Until resources are focused where they need to be, knife crime and gang rapes will continue to thrive.
Mr. Sandpit, to be fair, UK houses don't generally have aircon. I do appreciate and acknowledge, however, that your place (Abu Dhabi?) is a smidgen warmer/more humid than Yorkshire.
Edited extra bit: incidentally, I've put a little on Hartley to not be classified at 2.75. He's got 4/9 DNFs so far. Mild value.
Dubai, 60 miles away. We are the ones who don’t like the Flintstones (but Abu Dhabi dooo!).
45°C and 70% here today, yes my flat and car are air conditioned but some days they struggle...
Okay, I’ll follow you in for half a stake on Hartley if I can find a way of placing the bet.
How much leccy does all the air-con use over there ?
I'm still pinning my hopes on the idea that this is all just political theatre: at the eleventh hour Theresa, Barnier, Boris and Rees-Mogg will stride out arm and arm and declare, amid beaming smiles, that everything's agreed and has been for months and months.
"Oh, hurrah! The big knobs have gone round the table and yanked the iron out of the fire!"
"Thank God! We lived through it! The Brexit Crisis, 2016 to 2018!"
I'm still pinning my hopes on the idea that this is all just political theatre: at the eleventh hour Theresa, Barnier, Boris and Rees-Mogg will stride out arm and arm and declare, amid beaming smiles, that everything's agreed and has been for months and months.
Comments
https://www.globebmg.com/
We are basically an online IP business and legal intelligence portal with some print publications and events thrown in.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1014889701407326209
Anyway, Herr Adler, I hope you have a nice time in Deutschland.
Mr. Rentool, well, you might, but for most people that's a significant reason not to want to return (should we leave).
Like Mrs Thatcher, Mrs May is putting British business first.
The leaflet sent to every house in Britain said what the people decided would be honoured. There is no way back from that.
Interesting article Mr Meeks, good read. Also grats Southam, may your new found wealth keep you distracted from politics
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1014891680754003969
Not a lot of sympathy from me - they've had 2 years to come up with anything vaguely workable and got nowhere close. So the only workable option may well be much softer than promised. Not sure i would be putting any money on the likes of Esther McVey being next out of cabinet. Surely one leadership contender in these circumstances (Liam Fox?) will think their best chance is to stand down, accuse of betrayal and spend the next x years saying how much better it would have been done their way.
They promised us sunlit uplands from day one.
Second question is, are they angry because irrespective of their own spin, this is how they're being interpreted by ministers?
We know what the banks are doing, they are setting up small satellite offices in Europe.
If you can, taking a bit of time off might help you see how you find retirement/semiretirement.
For what it's worth, if the EU could accept her offer, it would be a good balance between protecting the economy and fulfilling Brexit. Trade deals were always second fiddle to the issues of EU budget contributions, political union and freedom of movement.
But the risk seems to be that that we get stuck in a 'bad' Brexit, which is worse for us than when we were in the EU or end up rejoining under worse terms than we had before.
.....there are no serious legal reasons to exclude a Brexit deal with single market on goods and partial free movement of people (but with the proper institutional guarantees). Obstacles are political, and if people want to create them, they should justify them as such. For my part, I fail to see why we should refuse by principle to grant the UK the flexibility we have granted to Ukraine. No more, no less.
I've been confidently predicting a deal the whole way through as well. Now I wonder if I should start to worry... although I must admit I find no deal absolutely intriguing from a 'what the hell would actually happen' perspective....
Seems to me this gives UK benefits of single market, without the FoM bit.
Barnier won't buy that.
Paul Krugman has a nice post on why Brexit has a disproportionately greater impact on the economy than a Trump trade war for the same level of trade affected.
https://twitter.com/asabenn/status/1014897755364450304
" 'what the hell would actually happen' "
Apologies.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/amesbury-novichok-poisoning-kremlin-must-tell-the-truth-as-it-emerges-killer-nerve-agent-was-dumped-a3880186.html
Edited extra bit: incidentally, I've put a little on Hartley to not be classified at 2.75. He's got 4/9 DNFs so far. Mild value.
In all seriousness, an inspiration to some of us small time entrepreneurs.
Pleased I’m not there at the moment, friends are saying that the place is as crawling with police and cordoned off areas now, as it was at the height of the previous incident.
https://twitter.com/wikiguido/status/1014894667035529216?s=21
He should try playing Sunday league football.....
A deal vs no deal referendum, on the other hand, is a possibility.
Both can be waived if you denounce pineapple on pizza as the worst thing since the Black Death.
45°C and 70% here today, yes my flat and car are air conditioned but some days they struggle...
Okay, I’ll follow you in for half a stake on Hartley if I can find a way of placing the bet.
The common purpose infected establishment as personified by Cressida Dick are doing all they can to create some kind of equivalence with black on black knife crime and Pakistani rape gangs, so they can stick with their PC agenda.
Until resources are focused where they need to be, knife crime and gang rapes will continue to thrive.
"Thank God! We lived through it! The Brexit Crisis, 2016 to 2018!"