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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation Brexit anniversary poll has REMAIN 5% ahead
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation Brexit anniversary poll has REMAIN 5% ahead
Chart – Survation
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Despite the findings of this poll that only one in six can even define Customs Union, no doubt the la-la Leavers will continue to insist that not leaving a customs union would be a betrayal of voters.
But, of course, when the polls are this close, their real message is that nobody can be sure who might win if the referendum were to be run again – after all most, albeit not all, of the final referendum polls two years ago put Remain narrowly ahead, yet Leave still won. Moreover, in so far as there does appear to have been a slight swing to Remain, it is not the result of particular doubt amongst Leave voters about the wisdom of their choice. On average in recent polls, only 7% of those who said they voted Leave now say they would vote Remain – no more than the 7% of Remain voters who now say they would vote Leave. Rather the swing to Remain, such as it is, has been more or less wholly occasioned by the views of those who did not vote two years ago; 44% of this group now say they would vote Remain, while only 19% state that they would vote to Leave. Just how many of these voters would make it to the polls second time around is inevitably highly uncertain.
https://whatukthinks.org/eu/two-years-on-many-a-doubt-but-few-changed-minds/
I smell a rat with the polling on a referendum on the final deal. Over a 20-point lead is a huge lead way out of kilter with previous polling, and must include a lot of Leavers too.
I’d very much like to review the wording and methodology for that one.
This, though, has not stopped those who would like to see the Brexit decision reversed from campaigning in favour of a second referendum when the details of the deal have eventually been finalised. But this is an issue on which voters themselves are not only divided but is also one where the balance of opinion depends on how the issue is addressed. When on numerous occasions both Opinium and YouGov have asked voters whether there should be a referendum, they have consistently found that a majority are opposed. But when both companies have asked a different question, that is, whether the public should have a vote on the ‘final deal’ or should be allowed to have the ‘final say’, they have found majorities in favour (see here and here). That helps explain why the ‘People’s Vote’ campaign that is arguing in favour of another referendum describe the ballot as a ‘vote on the final Brexit deal’. But whether in the event voters would welcome another referendum on the deal is as uncertain as the likely outcome of any such ballot.
Referendum 2: This Time We Promise To Respect The Vote. Honest.
Leavers should get ahead of the game and propose a new referendum unless they want their own Ceaușescu moment.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-party-brexit-emily-thornberry-chuku-uminna-eu-referendum-a8410546.html
And gives them advantages regarding tariffs (cf Bombardier).
China would be, IMO, a huge mistake, as all they'll end up doing is transferring technology, and speeding up the development of a second competitor alongside Boeing.
I don't think that's the way they meant it to sound - I would have said it was a warning shot to HMG - but it does rather underline my point last night that the EU's brinkmanship carries major risks for them as well even if they don't fully appreciate them yet.
We are not going to have a second referendum, at least not until well after we have left.
I really wish we could, as a country, move on to more relevant questions such as what sort of relationship do we want with the EU after we have left.
I accept that these are not such easy questions. If, as Alastair says, only 1 in 6 can define what a customs union even is how many have an informed view as to what sort of customs union is going to work for us? Are we to have a completely uniform external tariff (usually but not always the defining feature)? How would that work in respect of existing EU trade agreements, would we somehow automatically get added back in? If, as May says, we are not going to have a customs union how do we have a FTA? What are the rules of origin to be and how will that be policed?
The government's lack of clarity as to what it wants, beyond the very broad strokes painted by May, does not help. The problem we have is that remainers have cried wolf so many times now that even if they did come up with something genuinely significant it would be incredibly easy for the government to respond, well here we go again and disregard it. It's frustrating. We are negotiating this in the worst possible circumstances: divided as a country, with a minority government sometimes living from vote to vote and above all far too little focus on what we actually want. Most of the deal will thankfully write itself but it will not be as good for UK plc as it could have been.
I'm exhausted after 3.
Edit - that should have been 'related,' but it's a good typo and it's staying!
Some of these remain types are starting to resemble the Japanese troops holding out in the hills for decades after the war ended.
http://company.airbus.com/careers/Our-locations/Tianjin.html
On a second referendum: I do think that's a credible outcome. Not certain, perhaps not probable, but certain within the realm of plausible possibilities.
Airbus are throwing their toys out the pram. It’s pretty obvious, barring the ultra-ideologues on both sides of the channel, that we will have a long gentle transition to a maximum facilitated regime in the early 2020s, which they will be able to live with even if they’d prefer not to.
I agree with you on China. They’d simply nick all the technology. I’m not sure how keen the US Government and Boeing would be to onshore such a major competitor.
The EU is widely thought to be handling the Brexit process badly too. In March, for example, Ipsos MORI found that while 54% thought the UK government was doing a bad job handling Britain’s exit from the EU and only 38% thought it was doing a good job, equally 58% reckoned the EU was doing a bad job and only 30% a good one. And while Leave voters may have become more doubtful about the UK government’s performance, they are, unsurprisingly perhaps, even more likely to be critical of the role being played by the EU. Such a perspective is unlikely to encourage Leave voters to change their minds about the wisdom of leaving.
(In all actuality, since at this stage no deal seems the likely outcome from both parties it's unlikely to make a difference.)
As far as Airbus is concerned I was under the impression they were already planning Chinese factories and of course they would produce the whole aircraft there.
I do think it is a warning to both the EU and UK of the need for an agreement but the idea Airbus would just stop making wings in the UK in a year or so it not practical.
Anyway the story will supercharge Faisal Islam and Adam Boulton on Sky as they delight at any threat to the UK from Europe
p.s. I think most people are clued up enough to link the fall in the holiday £ to Brexit.
That is what Holocaust Deniers do.
Indeed, the fact she relied so heavily on Gibbon was one of the first signals to experts in the field (e.g. Averil Cameron) that Catherine Nixey was falsifying or at least gravely misunderstanding source material in her book The Darkening Age.
Anyway, I must go. Have a good morning.
We may want to rejoin.
But before we leave in March?
Less than 5% I think.
If it's boiled, it's boiled. After that, you can eat it or not, but you can't unboil it.
But it works the other way too. Suppose we have a departure that (I suspect, do correct me if I'm wrong) you would like, the softest, in-name-only leaving. Single market, customs union, ECJ still wrapping its tentacles around Britannia etc.
The impact on business would be minimal, but the restoration of democratic accountability and self-governance would also be minimal in degree. That too would provoke significant political disturbance, perhaps with I Can't Believe It's Not UKIP coming into being within months (a Farage-Banks organisation designed to avoid the infighting that plagued the purples).
Whatever happens, regarding referendum part two, the transition, the deal/no deal, a significant proportion of the electorate will be very grumpy about it.
Airbus ending UK production is also apparently no cause for alarm.
I have to ask, is there any British industry, the end of which might cause a Brexiteer to pause for thought?
Labour Brexit position is softer than the Tory's, and includes staying in the customs union. I'm sure business would prefer Labour to go further, (and perhaps they could push for that).
And I still think no deal is very very unlikely, and basically implausible for Labour who don't have the same red lines as the Tories, and have no free trade with the world ideologues to deal with.
Next month there are, it seems, four races. The French race is the first of three on the bounce, all of which should be good for Ferrari. Intrigued to see if Bottas can maintain his good form. He really should be a contender now, but for that Baku puncture.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-wales-28330762/beluga-aeroplane-flies-airbus-wings-from-broughton-to-france
The exchange rates are no worse this summer than they were in the summer of 2016, and better than during the depths of the Great Recession in 2009.
It’s a non-issue.
The A320 wings are flown from Broughton to Toulouse in a converted A320 called a 'Beluga'
It is a shame you try to belittle Wales
In Group B Spain has moved ahead of Portugal. Both have identical results (DW) and goal differences, and even goals for and against precisely. In those circumstances, how does one get placed ahead of another? Official ranking?
Who cares about the damage wrought on the economy so long as their ideology is implemented.
1) Car-crash brexit
2) No brexit
3) Third referendum to choose between (1) and (2)
4) One of the above, but the government isn't telling you which, are you feeling lucky?
I think if you had some clarity that you meant one of those you'd get quite a bit less support.
That's the crux of it.
Brexit is an exercise in self harm, and the Government are doing a bad job of limiting the damage, but even the best possible outcome with the best Government team would still be worse than we have now.
I think the F1 tie-breaker is wins. It might be (if those are equal) count back (so the last chap ahead wins).
But admittedly it's one more thing to choreograph, and it's not hard to imagine TMay somehow contriving some way to bollocks it up.
Yet you've spent the last two years being continually proved wrong.
Brexit may well have been the wrong decision, but the fact that it happened has at least shown that something was wrong in the minds of enough of the population to warrant looking at (or 52% of the population are racist, xenophobic little Englanders- even the ones who ain't English- you decide).
Whilst acknowledging that we haven't actually left yet, none of the sides have ever really come up with convincing arguments to back up Project Fear or The Land Of Milk And Honey And Free Trade With Everybody, but it is about time one of them did.
You know the sort, every club has them. The local know-it-alls. "You can't leave the city, it's never been done before, there's radiation and wild animals and people get drowned in the sea, you know. My wife's brother's friend once get a nasty suntan. Stop now."
Even worse, the three try to stop the bus even leaving the depot. "It's for your own good, you imbeciles."
https://www.politico.eu/article/united-ireland-after-brexit-reunification-vote/
It’s possible to see it as a win/win if the North were to see the economic growth the South has enjoyed - and rUK freed of the subsidy...
http://www.airbus.com/aircraft/how-is-an-aircraft-built/final-assembly-and-tests.html
Bad arguments drive out the good and extreme posturing drowns out attention to detail.