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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation Brexit anniversary poll has REMAIN 5% ahead

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,754
    AndyJS said:

    Funny old World Cup when you can look forward to Iceland v Nigeria.....

    Iceland are slight favourites with Betfair.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/football/market/1.137597547
    https://www.betfair.com/sport/football/event?eventId=28500624
    As they should be.
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227

    Elliot said:

    Scott_P said:
    Brexit is like communism - attractive in theory but impossible to implement in the way its adherents promised.
    The idea that being an independent country in a similar manner to Australia amd Canada is as unobtainable as communist utopia is plainly nonsense. This is why Remainers must concentrate on attacking the process rather than the end state. As soon as the process is over and the debate is fully independent UK vs semi-autonomous EU member, they will be on the wrong side of all the arguments again. It also explains why they are trying to set up a vassal state status rather than full auonomy.
    The idea that *the UK* can be such a country is indeed unobtainable. If you want to redraw the boundaries then be honest about it.

    Even then, the geopolitical and historical position of Britain is quite different, and were we to try to go it alone there is no good reason to think it would have a positive outcome. At the end of the day we are Europeans and we have never been able to stand aloof from European politics, however much we might have wanted to. Leaving the main political framework of Europe, that has proven its resiliency and is here to stay, so that we can sit in splendid isolation is simply a bad idea.
    We have managed to stand alone in terms of political independence for the overwhelming majority of our history. Your belief that we need to be part of the EU political project to survive is simply laughable.
    'Survival' is a remarkably low bar in all but the most extreme of circumstances, which these are not.
    The poorest countries in the world also "survive". That's the bar now.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,162
    surby said:

    Elliot said:

    Scott_P said:
    Brexit is like communism - attractive in theory but impossible to implement in the way its adherents promised.
    The idea that being an independent country in a similar manner to Australia amd Canada is as unobtainable as communist utopia is plainly nonsense. This is why Remainers must concentrate on attacking the process rather than the end state. As soon as the process is over and the debate is fully independent UK vs semi-autonomous EU member, they will be on the wrong side of all the arguments again. It also explains why they are trying to set up a vassal state status rather than full auonomy.
    The idea that *the UK* can be such a country is indeed unobtainable. If you want to redraw the boundaries then be honest about it.

    Even then, the geopolitical and historical position of Britain is quite different, and were we to try to go it alone there is no good reason to think it would have a positive outcome. At the end of the day we are Europeans and we have never been able to stand aloof from European politics, however much we might have wanted to. Leaving the main political framework of Europe, that has proven its resiliency and is here to stay, so that we can sit in splendid isolation is simply a bad idea.
    We have managed to stand alone in terms of political independence for the overwhelming majority of our history. Your belief that we need to be part of the EU political project to survive is simply laughable.
    'Survival' is a remarkably low bar in all but the most extreme of circumstances, which these are not.
    The poorest countries in the world also "survive". That's the bar now.
    Project Fear eat your heart out...
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 23,521

    Elliot said:

    Scott_P said:
    Brexit is like communism - attractive in theory but impossible to implement in the way its adherents promised.
    The idea that being an independent country in a similar manner to Australia amd Canada is as unobtainable as communist utopia is plainly nonsense. This is why Remainers must concentrate on attacking the process rather than the end state. As soon as the process is over and the debate is fully independent UK vs semi-autonomous EU member, they will be on the wrong side of all the arguments again. It also explains why they are trying to set up a vassal state status rather than full auonomy.
    The idea that *the UK* can be such a country is indeed unobtainable. If you want to redraw the boundaries then be honest about it.

    Even then, the geopolitical and historical position of Britain is quite different, and were we to try to go it alone there is no good reason to think it would have a positive outcome. At the end of the day we are Europeans and we have never been able to stand aloof from European politics, however much we might have wanted to. Leaving the main political framework of Europe, that has proven its resiliency and is here to stay, so that we can sit in splendid isolation is simply a bad idea.
    We have managed to stand alone in terms of political independence for the overwhelming majority of our history. Your belief that we need to be part of the EU political project to survive is simply laughable.
    'Survival' is a remarkably low bar in all but the most extreme of circumstances, which these are not.
    I was simply responding to Mr Glenn's rather fanciful claims that we are doomed outside the EU. Personally I think we are going to do very well and in the long term far better than we would if we had stayed longer.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,612
    surby said:

    Contrary to all the media reports and the full on remainers delight, Airbus’s statement is a warning not just to the UK but the EU 27 as well.


    Speaking to Sky News the company’s senior vice president Katherine Bennett said

    ‘In the event of a no deal we would see chaos at the borders

    Our parts move across the borders sometimes up to two or three times perhaps going into a satellite that we build here in the UK or the wings we make here in the UK

    We don’t want them to be affected by friction at the borders’

    She said

    ‘Airbus was running out of patience and went on to say the EU member states as well as the UK, need to understand the importance of the Airbus works

    It is putting pressure on all sides, it is not just the UK she said

    We are an international business and the EU27 need to understand the importance of integration and the way we work’


    So the report is a warning to both sides to get their act together, pity the emphasis today is all ante the UK from large and influential groups who want Brexit stopped rather than a fair comment piece by Airbus

    Only one country is leaving the EU. If the wings were made in France there would be no need of a frictionless border as there would not be one.
    Have you not understood Airbus's warning - it is to everyone but that does not fit your narrative.

    And you have no understanding of the UK expertise and high tech manufacturiing at Broughton
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,085

    Scott_P said:

    RobD said:

    Same could be said for the Remain side. The EU has made it clear that Brexit means Brexit, and that we can’t cherry pick membership of the CU/SM.

    Nigel Fucking Farage has been all over the airwaves this morning claiming that Brexit does not in fact mean Brexit

    Brexit means a completely different Brexit that he never told anyone about...
    A Remain campaign that wasn't full of fuckwits would have ripped him apart.

    What did you do in the great Brexit War?
    I still remember watching the results come in mouth agog. I never thought that Leave would win with all the inherent advantages for remain.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 28,426
    surby said:

    Only one country is leaving the EU. If the wings were made in France there would be no need of a frictionless border as there would not be one.

    If there is literally no deal, wings made in the UK will not be certified for air worthiness. That would mean Airbus couldn't sell any planes at all. It would take them years to move production elsewhere, so talk of moving production is irrelevant to the point.

    I don't know whether our EU friends have quite cottoned on to this yet, but they do seem to be showing a quite remarkable lack of urgency in getting down to substantive talks, given that we leave in 10 months' time.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 23,521
    surby said:

    Elliot said:

    Scott_P said:
    Brexit is like communism - attractive in theory but impossible to implement in the way its adherents promised.
    The idea that being an independent country in a similar manner to Australia amd Canada is as unobtainable as communist utopia is plainly nonsense. This is why Remainers must concentrate on attacking the process rather than the end state. As soon as the process is over and the debate is fully independent UK vs semi-autonomous EU member, they will be on the wrong side of all the arguments again. It also explains why they are trying to set up a vassal state status rather than full auonomy.
    The idea that *the UK* can be such a country is indeed unobtainable. If you want to redraw the boundaries then be honest about it.

    Even then, the geopolitical and historical position of Britain is quite different, and were we to try to go it alone there is no good reason to think it would have a positive outcome. At the end of the day we are Europeans and we have never been able to stand aloof from European politics, however much we might have wanted to. Leaving the main political framework of Europe, that has proven its resiliency and is here to stay, so that we can sit in splendid isolation is simply a bad idea.
    We have managed to stand alone in terms of political independence for the overwhelming majority of our history. Your belief that we need to be part of the EU political project to survive is simply laughable.
    'Survival' is a remarkably low bar in all but the most extreme of circumstances, which these are not.
    The poorest countries in the world also "survive". That's the bar now.
    LOL. Another lunatic claim from the unreconciled Remoaners.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 37,032

    Elliot said:

    Scott_P said:
    Brexit is like communism - attractive in theory but impossible to implement in the way its adherents promised.
    The idea that being an independent country in a similar manner to Australia amd Canada is as unobtainable as communist utopia is plainly nonsense. This is why Remainers must concentrate on attacking the process rather than the end state. As soon as the process is over and the debate is fully independent UK vs semi-autonomous EU member, they will be on the wrong side of all the arguments again. It also explains why they are trying to set up a vassal state status rather than full auonomy.
    The idea that *the UK* can be such a country is indeed unobtainable. If you want to redraw the boundaries then be honest about it.

    Even then, the geopolitical and historical position of Britain is quite different, and were we to try to go it alone there is no good reason to think it would have a positive outcome. At the end of the day we are Europeans and we have never been able to stand aloof from European politics, however much we might have wanted to. Leaving the main political framework of Europe, that has proven its resiliency and is here to stay, so that we can sit in splendid isolation is simply a bad idea.
    We have managed to stand alone in terms of political independence for the overwhelming majority of our history. Your belief that we need to be part of the EU political project to survive is simply laughable.
    How can we maintain an open border with the EU while being completely unencumbered by it?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,641
    Pulpstar said:
    I wonder what Donald trump will say about this?

    It reminds me a bit of the child adult migrants let into the uk, Getty took images, one false tweet about one individual being a translator and the story became all about outrage at mail / sun etc for taking these photos suggesting they weren’t kids...and when the dust settled the original story was true.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 23,521

    Elliot said:

    Scott_P said:
    Brexit is like communism - attractive in theory but impossible to implement in the way its adherents promised.
    The idea that being an independent country in a similar manner to Australia amd Canada is as unobtainable as communist utopia is plainly nonsense. This is why Remainers must concentrate on attacking the process rather than the end state. As soon as the process is over and the debate is fully independent UK vs semi-autonomous EU member, they will be on the wrong side of all the arguments again. It also explains why they are trying to set up a vassal state status rather than full auonomy.
    The idea that *the UK* can be such a country is indeed unobtainable. If you want to redraw the boundaries then be honest about it.

    Even then, the geopolitical and historical position of Britain is quite different, and were we to try to go it alone there is no good reason to think it would have a positive outcome. At the end of the day we are Europeans and we have never been able to stand aloof from European politics, however much we might have wanted to. Leaving the main political framework of Europe, that has proven its resiliency and is here to stay, so that we can sit in splendid isolation is simply a bad idea.
    We have managed to stand alone in terms of political independence for the overwhelming majority of our history. Your belief that we need to be part of the EU political project to survive is simply laughable.
    How can we maintain an open border with the EU while being completely unencumbered by it?
    Since I have claimed neither position your question is pointless.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,162

    surby said:

    Only one country is leaving the EU. If the wings were made in France there would be no need of a frictionless border as there would not be one.

    If there is literally no deal, wings made in the UK will not be certified for air worthiness. That would mean Airbus couldn't sell any planes at all. It would take them years to move production elsewhere, so talk of moving production is irrelevant to the point.

    I don't know whether our EU friends have quite cottoned on to this yet, but they do seem to be showing a quite remarkable lack of urgency in getting down to substantive talks, given that we leave in 10 months' time.
    Yeah, they don't seem interested in negotiating any trade agreement at the moment.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 6,453
    Scott_P said:
    Wow. I know that Leave guy was saying that British manufacturing should be sacrificed on the alter of Brexit several months ago, but I assumed he was a fringe figure, a bit of a crank. This doctrine now appears to have gone mainstream.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,612

    surby said:

    Only one country is leaving the EU. If the wings were made in France there would be no need of a frictionless border as there would not be one.

    If there is literally no deal, wings made in the UK will not be certified for air worthiness. That would mean Airbus couldn't sell any planes at all. It would take them years to move production elsewhere, so talk of moving production is irrelevant to the point.

    I don't know whether our EU friends have quite cottoned on to this yet, but they do seem to be showing a quite remarkable lack of urgency in getting down to substantive talks, given that we leave in 10 months' time.
    Airbus paralyised by the EU commission from day 1 of a no deal. No wonder they are firing a warning at the EU and indeed so have the German car manufacturers today just before Trump's 20% tariff on their cars has been announced.

    Both sides need to stop point scoring and act like grown ups
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 37,032

    Elliot said:

    Scott_P said:
    Brexit is like communism - attractive in theory but impossible to implement in the way its adherents promised.
    The idea that being an independent country in a similar manner to Australia amd Canada is as unobtainable as communist utopia is plainly nonsense. This is why Remainers must concentrate on attacking the process rather than the end state. As soon as the process is over and the debate is fully independent UK vs semi-autonomous EU member, they will be on the wrong side of all the arguments again. It also explains why they are trying to set up a vassal state status rather than full auonomy.
    The idea that *the UK* can be such a country is indeed unobtainable. If you want to redraw the boundaries then be honest about it.

    Even then, the geopolitical and historical position of Britain is quite different, and were we to try to go it alone there is no good reason to think it would have a positive outcome. At the end of the day we are Europeans and we have never been able to stand aloof from European politics, however much we might have wanted to. Leaving the main political framework of Europe, that has proven its resiliency and is here to stay, so that we can sit in splendid isolation is simply a bad idea.
    We have managed to stand alone in terms of political independence for the overwhelming majority of our history. Your belief that we need to be part of the EU political project to survive is simply laughable.
    How can we maintain an open border with the EU while being completely unencumbered by it?
    Since I have claimed neither position your question is pointless.
    Since you deny reality your opinions are pointless.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,162

    Scott_P said:
    Wow. I know that Leave guy was saying that British manufacturing should be sacrificed on the alter of Brexit several months ago, but I assumed he was a fringe figure, a bit of a crank. This doctrine now appears to have gone mainstream.
    Interesting definition of mainstream there.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    surby said:

    Only one country is leaving the EU. If the wings were made in France there would be no need of a frictionless border as there would not be one.

    If there is literally no deal, wings made in the UK will not be certified for air worthiness. That would mean Airbus couldn't sell any planes at all. It would take them years to move production elsewhere, so talk of moving production is irrelevant to the point.

    I don't know whether our EU friends have quite cottoned on to this yet, but they do seem to be showing a quite remarkable lack of urgency in getting down to substantive talks, given that we leave in 10 months' time.
    Yes and you just know one of the items on the Airbus board meeting is - What have the clowns in Brussels done now to harm our business.
    On Boeings board meeting - What have the clowns in Brussels done to increase our business.

    Boeing CEO call to Worlds largest Airbus customers "I have got this risk assessment here, you ain't going to be gettin your planes, we have production capacity ready, order now."

    The Airbus board must be turning the air blue and pulling their hair out.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,612

    Scott_P said:
    Wow. I know that Leave guy was saying that British manufacturing should be sacrificed on the alter of Brexit several months ago, but I assumed he was a fringe figure, a bit of a crank. This doctrine now appears to have gone mainstream.
    How is it mainstream. Farage is a turn off for most and the hard Brexiteers like him are well outnumbered
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,612

    surby said:

    Only one country is leaving the EU. If the wings were made in France there would be no need of a frictionless border as there would not be one.

    If there is literally no deal, wings made in the UK will not be certified for air worthiness. That would mean Airbus couldn't sell any planes at all. It would take them years to move production elsewhere, so talk of moving production is irrelevant to the point.

    I don't know whether our EU friends have quite cottoned on to this yet, but they do seem to be showing a quite remarkable lack of urgency in getting down to substantive talks, given that we leave in 10 months' time.
    Yes and you just know one of the items on the Airbus board meeting is - What have the clowns in Brussels done now to harm our business.
    On Boeings board meeting - What have the clowns in Brussels done to increase our business.

    Boeing CEO call to Worlds largest Airbus customers "I have got this risk assessment here, you ain't going to be gettin your planes, we have production capacity ready, order now."

    The Airbus board must be turning the air blue and pulling their hair out.
    That is a very good point and most likely happening right now
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 23,521

    Elliot said:

    Scott_P said:
    Brexit is like communism - attractive in theory but impossible to implement in the way its adherents promised.
    The idea that being an independent country in a similar manner to Australia amd Canada is as unobtainable as communist utopia is plainly nonsense. This is why Remainers must concentrate on attacking the process rather than the end state. As soon as the process is over and the debate is fully independent UK vs semi-autonomous EU member, they will be on the wrong side of all the arguments again. It also explains why they are trying to set up a vassal state status rather than full auonomy.
    The idea that *the UK* can be such a country is indeed unobtainable. If you want to redraw the boundaries then be honest about it.

    Even then, the geopolitical and historical position of Britain is quite different, and were we to try to go it alone there is no good reason to think it would have a positive outcome. At the end of the day we are Europeans and we have never been able to stand aloof from European politics, however much we might have wanted to. Leaving the main political framework of Europe, that has proven its resiliency and is here to stay, so that we can sit in splendid isolation is simply a bad idea.
    We have managed to stand alone in terms of political independence for the overwhelming majority of our history. Your belief that we need to be part of the EU political project to survive is simply laughable.
    How can we maintain an open border with the EU while being completely unencumbered by it?
    Since I have claimed neither position your question is pointless.
    Since you deny reality your opinions are pointless.
    Answer the specific point I made. You made two claims which were completely unsupported. Mind you since your whole world view is unsupported by reality I can see how you got yourself into such an indefensible position.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,413

    surby said:

    Only one country is leaving the EU. If the wings were made in France there would be no need of a frictionless border as there would not be one.

    If there is literally no deal, wings made in the UK will not be certified for air worthiness. That would mean Airbus couldn't sell any planes at all. It would take them years to move production elsewhere, so talk of moving production is irrelevant to the point.

    I don't know whether our EU friends have quite cottoned on to this yet, but they do seem to be showing a quite remarkable lack of urgency in getting down to substantive talks, given that we leave in 10 months' time.
    Airbus paralyised by the EU commission from day 1 of a no deal. No wonder they are firing a warning at the EU and indeed so have the German car manufacturers today just before Trump's 20% tariff on their cars has been announced.

    Both sides need to stop point scoring and act like grown ups
    But in the eyes of most of Europe, and most of business, it's the UK that caused this mess and not the EU Commission. The people who will be blamed if (when?) Brexit goes tits up will be May and the Brexiteers. The government's uttlerly shambolic approach and Davis's insouciance guarantee that blame will be laid at their door. FFS he demanded parallel negotiations on withdrawal and the future relationship nearly 2 years ago and yet even now the government can't agree on what future relationship it is looking for! You cannot blame the EU for not taking him seriously.
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    RobD said:

    surby said:

    Only one country is leaving the EU. If the wings were made in France there would be no need of a frictionless border as there would not be one.

    If there is literally no deal, wings made in the UK will not be certified for air worthiness. That would mean Airbus couldn't sell any planes at all. It would take them years to move production elsewhere, so talk of moving production is irrelevant to the point.

    I don't know whether our EU friends have quite cottoned on to this yet, but they do seem to be showing a quite remarkable lack of urgency in getting down to substantive talks, given that we leave in 10 months' time.
    Yeah, they don't seem interested in negotiating any trade agreement at the moment.
    WTO is also a trade agreement. You pay duties.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,417

    This is that moment in Lord of the Rings when Elrond notes our list of allies grows thin

    Bad comparison. Elrond was on the side of the enlightened.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 37,032
    edited June 2018

    Elliot said:

    Scott_P said:
    Brexit is like communism - attractive in theory but impossible to implement in the way its adherents promised.
    The idea that being an independent country in a similar manner to Australia amd Canada is as unobtainable as communist utopia is plainly nonsense. This is why Remainers must concentrate on attacking the process rather than the end state. As soon as the process is over and the debate is fully independent UK vs semi-autonomous EU member, they will be on the wrong side of all the arguments again. It also explains why they are trying to set up a vassal state status rather than full auonomy.
    The idea that *the UK* can be such a country is indeed unobtainable. If you want to redraw the boundaries then be honest about it.

    Even then, the geopolitical and historical position of Britain is quite different, and were we to try to go it alone there is no good reason to think it would have a positive outcome. At the end of the day we are Europeans and we have never been able to stand aloof from European politics, however much we might have wanted to. Leaving the main political framework of Europe, that has proven its resiliency and is here to stay, so that we can sit in splendid isolation is simply a bad idea.
    We have managed to stand alone in terms of political independence for the overwhelming majority of our history. Your belief that we need to be part of the EU political project to survive is simply laughable.
    How can we maintain an open border with the EU while being completely unencumbered by it?
    Since I have claimed neither position your question is pointless.
    Since you deny reality your opinions are pointless.
    Answer the specific point I made. You made two claims which were completely unsupported. Mind you since your whole world view is unsupported by reality I can see how you got yourself into such an indefensible position.
    My question was: "How can we maintain an open border with the EU while being completely unencumbered by it?"

    We need to maintain an open border because of the political reality on the island of Ireland and 'being completely unencumbered by the EU' is a reasonable synonym for 'standing alone in political independence'.

    So what's your answer?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,883

    This is that moment in Lord of the Rings when Elrond notes our list of allies grows thin

    Bad comparison. Elrond was on the side of the enlightened.
    Or perhaps Mr Meeks has seen the light?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,612
    edited June 2018

    surby said:

    Only one country is leaving the EU. If the wings were made in France there would be no need of a frictionless border as there would not be one.

    If there is literally no deal, wings made in the UK will not be certified for air worthiness. That would mean Airbus couldn't sell any planes at all. It would take them years to move production elsewhere, so talk of moving production is irrelevant to the point.

    I don't know whether our EU friends have quite cottoned on to this yet, but they do seem to be showing a quite remarkable lack of urgency in getting down to substantive talks, given that we leave in 10 months' time.
    Airbus paralyised by the EU commission from day 1 of a no deal. No wonder they are firing a warning at the EU and indeed so have the German car manufacturers today just before Trump's 20% tariff on their cars has been announced.

    Both sides need to stop point scoring and act like grown ups
    But in the eyes of most of Europe, and most of business, it's the UK that caused this mess and not the EU Commission. The people who will be blamed if (when?) Brexit goes tits up will be May and the Brexiteers. The government's uttlerly shambolic approach and Davis's insouciance guarantee that blame will be laid at their door. FFS he demanded parallel negotiations on withdrawal and the future relationship nearly 2 years ago and yet even now the government can't agree on what future relationship it is looking for! You cannot blame the EU for not taking him seriously.
    The EU are now coming under fire from EU wide manufacturers and the threats from Junckers, his henchman and Barnier to punish the UK and use the Irish border will become an issue with UK voters. Indeed on the Irish border most voters think the electronic tech solution is viable including in the ROI and see the EU as deliberately obstructing the process
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    This is that moment in Lord of the Rings when Elrond notes our list of allies grows thin

    Bad comparison. Elrond was on the side of the enlightened.
    Maybe they were dieting?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited June 2018

    surby said:

    Only one country is leaving the EU. If the wings were made in France there would be no need of a frictionless border as there would not be one.

    If there is literally no deal, wings made in the UK will not be certified for air worthiness. That would mean Airbus couldn't sell any planes at all. It would take them years to move production elsewhere, so talk of moving production is irrelevant to the point.

    I don't know whether our EU friends have quite cottoned on to this yet, but they do seem to be showing a quite remarkable lack of urgency in getting down to substantive talks, given that we leave in 10 months' time.
    Airbus paralyised by the EU commission from day 1 of a no deal. No wonder they are firing a warning at the EU and indeed so have the German car manufacturers today just before Trump's 20% tariff on their cars has been announced.

    Both sides need to stop point scoring and act like grown ups
    But in the eyes of most of Europe, and most of business, it's the UK that caused this mess and not the EU Commission. The people who will be blamed if (when?) Brexit goes tits up will be May and the Brexiteers. The government's uttlerly shambolic approach and Davis's insouciance guarantee that blame will be laid at their door. FFS he demanded parallel negotiations on withdrawal and the future relationship nearly 2 years ago and yet even now the government can't agree on what future relationship it is looking for! You cannot blame the EU for not taking him seriously.

    The first thing the EU did (after refusing to negotiate a deal in advance of A50), was to use the Irish border as a deliberate no-win scenario to block negotiating a trade deal.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 29,288

    surby said:

    Only one country is leaving the EU. If the wings were made in France there would be no need of a frictionless border as there would not be one.

    If there is literally no deal, wings made in the UK will not be certified for air worthiness. That would mean Airbus couldn't sell any planes at all. It would take them years to move production elsewhere, so talk of moving production is irrelevant to the point.

    I don't know whether our EU friends have quite cottoned on to this yet, but they do seem to be showing a quite remarkable lack of urgency in getting down to substantive talks, given that we leave in 10 months' time.
    Airbus paralyised by the EU commission from day 1 of a no deal. No wonder they are firing a warning at the EU and indeed so have the German car manufacturers today just before Trump's 20% tariff on their cars has been announced.

    Both sides need to stop point scoring and act like grown ups
    But in the eyes of most of Europe, and most of business, it's the UK that caused this mess and not the EU Commission. The people who will be blamed if (when?) Brexit goes tits up will be May and the Brexiteers. The government's uttlerly shambolic approach and Davis's insouciance guarantee that blame will be laid at their door. FFS he demanded parallel negotiations on withdrawal and the future relationship nearly 2 years ago and yet even now the government can't agree on what future relationship it is looking for! You cannot blame the EU for not taking him seriously.
    If everything goes tits up, then I expect that both this government, and the EU negotiators will get blamed.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 12,259
    Airbus wing design, largely in Bristol I think, should be safe post Brexit I suspect. Wing manufacture in Broughton near Chester is very vulnerable.

    I imagine the 34% "preferring" Hard Brexit wouldn't actually enjoy it much. It won't look like Brexit success. The fact of the matter is that there are no practical upsides to Brexit but plenty of .potential or definite downsides. Our choice is scorched earth Brexit or damage limited Brexit or cancel the whole thing. I predict damage limitation, but that does require people to accept there is damage to be limited and that we voted for that damage.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 37,032
    Sean_F said:

    surby said:

    Only one country is leaving the EU. If the wings were made in France there would be no need of a frictionless border as there would not be one.

    If there is literally no deal, wings made in the UK will not be certified for air worthiness. That would mean Airbus couldn't sell any planes at all. It would take them years to move production elsewhere, so talk of moving production is irrelevant to the point.

    I don't know whether our EU friends have quite cottoned on to this yet, but they do seem to be showing a quite remarkable lack of urgency in getting down to substantive talks, given that we leave in 10 months' time.
    Airbus paralyised by the EU commission from day 1 of a no deal. No wonder they are firing a warning at the EU and indeed so have the German car manufacturers today just before Trump's 20% tariff on their cars has been announced.

    Both sides need to stop point scoring and act like grown ups
    But in the eyes of most of Europe, and most of business, it's the UK that caused this mess and not the EU Commission. The people who will be blamed if (when?) Brexit goes tits up will be May and the Brexiteers. The government's uttlerly shambolic approach and Davis's insouciance guarantee that blame will be laid at their door. FFS he demanded parallel negotiations on withdrawal and the future relationship nearly 2 years ago and yet even now the government can't agree on what future relationship it is looking for! You cannot blame the EU for not taking him seriously.
    If everything goes tits up, then I expect that both this government, and the EU negotiators will get blamed.
    By whom? Conservative voters?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 6,453
    Sean_F said:

    surby said:

    Only one country is leaving the EU. If the wings were made in France there would be no need of a frictionless border as there would not be one.

    If there is literally no deal, wings made in the UK will not be certified for air worthiness. That would mean Airbus couldn't sell any planes at all. It would take them years to move production elsewhere, so talk of moving production is irrelevant to the point.

    I don't know whether our EU friends have quite cottoned on to this yet, but they do seem to be showing a quite remarkable lack of urgency in getting down to substantive talks, given that we leave in 10 months' time.
    Airbus paralyised by the EU commission from day 1 of a no deal. No wonder they are firing a warning at the EU and indeed so have the German car manufacturers today just before Trump's 20% tariff on their cars has been announced.

    Both sides need to stop point scoring and act like grown ups
    But in the eyes of most of Europe, and most of business, it's the UK that caused this mess and not the EU Commission. The people who will be blamed if (when?) Brexit goes tits up will be May and the Brexiteers. The government's uttlerly shambolic approach and Davis's insouciance guarantee that blame will be laid at their door. FFS he demanded parallel negotiations on withdrawal and the future relationship nearly 2 years ago and yet even now the government can't agree on what future relationship it is looking for! You cannot blame the EU for not taking him seriously.
    If everything goes tits up, then I expect that both this government, and the EU negotiators will get blamed.
    But if we've left the EU then the eurocrats won't be around for us to turn on; it will be Theresa and co. completely in the firing line. And you know what that means - Jezza striding to the door of Number 10 in his new, good suit.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    During FP1 this morning the commentators said that there are enough track sections for over 100 different track variations.

    Plus the track looks like a technicolor yawn.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,162

    Sean_F said:

    surby said:

    Only one country is leaving the EU. If the wings were made in France there would be no need of a frictionless border as there would not be one.

    If there is literally no deal, wings made in the UK will not be certified for air worthiness. That would mean Airbus couldn't sell any planes at all. It would take them years to move production elsewhere, so talk of moving production is irrelevant to the point.

    I don't know whether our EU friends have quite cottoned on to this yet, but they do seem to be showing a quite remarkable lack of urgency in getting down to substantive talks, given that we leave in 10 months' time.
    Airbus paralyised by the EU commission from day 1 of a no deal. No wonder they are firing a warning at the EU and indeed so have the German car manufacturers today just before Trump's 20% tariff on their cars has been announced.

    Both sides need to stop point scoring and act like grown ups
    But in the eyes of most of Europe, and most of business, it's the UK that caused this mess and not the EU Commission. The people who will be blamed if (when?) Brexit goes tits up will be May and the Brexiteers. The government's uttlerly shambolic approach and Davis's insouciance guarantee that blame will be laid at their door. FFS he demanded parallel negotiations on withdrawal and the future relationship nearly 2 years ago and yet even now the government can't agree on what future relationship it is looking for! You cannot blame the EU for not taking him seriously.
    If everything goes tits up, then I expect that both this government, and the EU negotiators will get blamed.
    But if we've left the EU then the eurocrats won't be around for us to turn on; it will be Theresa and co. completely in the firing line. And you know what that means - Jezza striding to the door of Number 10 in his new, good suit.
    Don’t worry. The eurocrats will be blamed for years to come.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    This is a very good explanation of the issues facing the car industry if their is a WTO style Brexit. It mainly focuses on the German car industry but also covers the implications for other EU, RoW and UK based manufacturers. It call be titled why the UK car industry will increase after Brexit.

    https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/de/Documents/Brexit/Brexit-Briefings_Pt5_Hard-Brexit-German-car-industry.pdf
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 29,288

    Sean_F said:

    surby said:

    Only one country is leaving the EU. If the wings were made in France there would be no need of a frictionless border as there would not be one.

    If there is literally no deal, wings made in the UK will not be certified for air worthiness. That would mean Airbus couldn't sell any planes at all. It would take them years to move production elsewhere, so talk of moving production is irrelevant to the point.

    I don't know whether our EU friends have quite cottoned on to this yet, but they do seem to be showing a quite remarkable lack of urgency in getting down to substantive talks, given that we leave in 10 months' time.
    Airbus paralyised by the EU commission from day 1 of a no deal. No wonder they are firing a warning at the EU and indeed so have the German car manufacturers today just before Trump's 20% tariff on their cars has been announced.

    Both sides need to stop point scoring and act like grown ups
    But in the eyes of most of Europe, and most of business, it's the UK that caused this mess and not the EU Commission. The people who will be blamed if (when?) Brexit goes tits up will be May and the Brexiteers. The government's uttlerly shambolic approach and Davis's insouciance guarantee that blame will be laid at their door. FFS he demanded parallel negotiations on withdrawal and the future relationship nearly 2 years ago and yet even now the government can't agree on what future relationship it is looking for! You cannot blame the EU for not taking him seriously.
    If everything goes tits up, then I expect that both this government, and the EU negotiators will get blamed.
    By whom? Conservative voters?
    Most voters.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 37,032
    RobD said:


    But if we've left the EU then the eurocrats won't be around for us to turn on; it will be Theresa and co. completely in the firing line. And you know what that means - Jezza striding to the door of Number 10 in his new, good suit.

    Don’t worry. The eurocrats will be blamed for years to come.
    Given that Brexit voters tend towards authoritarianism, they're more likely to respect the EU for showing strength, and feel anger towards the UK government for failing to live up to its promise of national vigour.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 23,521

    Elliot said:

    Scott_P said:
    Brexit is like communism - attractive in theory but impossible to implement in the way its adherents promised.
    The idea that being an independent country in a similar manner to Australia amd Canada is as unobtainable as communist utopia is plainly nonsense. This is why Remainers must concentrate on attacking the process rather than the end state. As soon as the process is over and the debate is fully independent UK vs semi-autonomous EU member, they will be on the wrong side of all the arguments again. It also explains why they are trying to set up a vassal state status rather than full auonomy.
    The idea that *the UK* can be such a country is indeed unobtainable. If you want to redraw the boundaries then be honest about it.

    Even then, the geopolitical and historical position of Britain is quite different, and were we to try to go it alone there is no good reason to think it would have a positive outcome. At the end of the day we are Europeans and we have never been able to stand aloof from European politics, however much we might have wanted to. Leaving the main political framework of Europe, that has proven its resiliency and is here to stay, so that we can sit in splendid isolation is simply a bad idea.
    We have managed to stand alone in terms of political independence for the overwhelming majority of our history. Your belief that we need to be part of the EU political project to survive is simply laughable.
    How can we maintain an open border with the EU while being completely unencumbered by it?
    Since I have claimed neither position your question is pointless.
    Since you deny reality your opinions are pointless.
    Answer the specific point I made. You made two claims which were completely unsupported. Mind you since your whole world view is unsupported by reality I can see how you got yourself into such an indefensible position.
    My question was: "How can we maintain an open border with the EU while being completely unencumbered by it?"

    We need to maintain an open border because of the political reality on the island of Ireland and 'being completely unencumbered by the EU' is a reasonable synonym for 'standing alone in political independence'.

    So what's your answer?
    We do not need to maintain an open border.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 41,486
    Sean_F said:

    surby said:

    Only one country is leaving the EU. If the wings were made in France there would be no need of a frictionless border as there would not be one.

    If there is literally no deal, wings made in the UK will not be certified for air worthiness. That would mean Airbus couldn't sell any planes at all. It would take them years to move production elsewhere, so talk of moving production is irrelevant to the point.

    I don't know whether our EU friends have quite cottoned on to this yet, but they do seem to be showing a quite remarkable lack of urgency in getting down to substantive talks, given that we leave in 10 months' time.
    Airbus paralyised by the EU commission from day 1 of a no deal. No wonder they are firing a warning at the EU and indeed so have the German car manufacturers today just before Trump's 20% tariff on their cars has been announced.

    Both sides need to stop point scoring and act like grown ups
    But in the eyes of most of Europe, and most of business, it's the UK that caused this mess and not the EU Commission. The people who will be blamed if (when?) Brexit goes tits up will be May and the Brexiteers. The government's uttlerly shambolic approach and Davis's insouciance guarantee that blame will be laid at their door. FFS he demanded parallel negotiations on withdrawal and the future relationship nearly 2 years ago and yet even now the government can't agree on what future relationship it is looking for! You cannot blame the EU for not taking him seriously.
    If everything goes tits up, then I expect that both this government, and the EU negotiators will get blamed.
    Even if it does, there’s nothing in the behaviour of either the EU or the ultra-Remainers that leads me to believe Britons will want to run back into the warm embraces of the EU again.

    They have learnt nothing, and forgotten nothing.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 37,032
    edited June 2018

    How can we maintain an open border with the EU while being completely unencumbered by it?

    Since I have claimed neither position your question is pointless.
    Since you deny reality your opinions are pointless.
    Answer the specific point I made. You made two claims which were completely unsupported. Mind you since your whole world view is unsupported by reality I can see how you got yourself into such an indefensible position.
    My question was: "How can we maintain an open border with the EU while being completely unencumbered by it?"

    We need to maintain an open border because of the political reality on the island of Ireland and 'being completely unencumbered by the EU' is a reasonable synonym for 'standing alone in political independence'.

    So what's your answer?
    We do not need to maintain an open border.
    Denial of reality, so I was right the first time.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    RobD said:


    But if we've left the EU then the eurocrats won't be around for us to turn on; it will be Theresa and co. completely in the firing line. And you know what that means - Jezza striding to the door of Number 10 in his new, good suit.

    Don’t worry. The eurocrats will be blamed for years to come.
    Given that Brexit voters tend towards authoritarianism, they're more likely to respect the EU for showing strength, and feel anger towards the UK government for failing to live up to its promise of national vigour.

    LOL. Some of your propaganda is stunning.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 41,486

    This is a very good explanation of the issues facing the car industry if their is a WTO style Brexit. It mainly focuses on the German car industry but also covers the implications for other EU, RoW and UK based manufacturers. It call be titled why the UK car industry will increase after Brexit.

    https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/de/Documents/Brexit/Brexit-Briefings_Pt5_Hard-Brexit-German-car-industry.pdf

    It shows that German carmakers are actually quite an important factor in securing us a decent Brexit deal, if not the only factor.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,413

    surby said:

    Only one country is leaving the EU. If the wings were made in France there would be no need of a frictionless border as there would not be one.

    If there is literally no deal, wings made in the UK will not be certified for air worthiness. That would mean Airbus couldn't sell any planes at all. It would take them years to move production elsewhere, so talk of moving production is irrelevant to the point.

    I don't know whether our EU friends have quite cottoned on to this yet, but they do seem to be showing a quite remarkable lack of urgency in getting down to substantive talks, given that we leave in 10 months' time.
    Airbus paralyised by the EU commission from day 1 of a no deal. No wonder they are firing a warning at the EU and indeed so have the German car manufacturers today just before Trump's 20% tariff on their cars has been announced.

    Both sides need to stop point scoring and act like grown ups
    But in the eyes of most of Europe, and most of business, it's the UK that caused this mess and not the EU Commission. The people who will be blamed if (when?) Brexit goes tits up will be May and the Brexiteers. The government's uttlerly shambolic approach and Davis's insouciance guarantee that blame will be laid at their door. FFS he demanded parallel negotiations on withdrawal and the future relationship nearly 2 years ago and yet even now the government can't agree on what future relationship it is looking for! You cannot blame the EU for not taking him seriously.
    The EU are now coming under fire from EU wide manufacturers and the threats from Junckers, his henchman and Barnier to punish the UK and use the Irish border will become an issue with UK voters. Indeed on the Irish border most voters think the electronic tech solution is viable including in the ROI and see the EU as deliberately obstructing the process
    You cannot vote electronic border technology into existence. Most voters may well think it's viable but those who actually design such systems say it is not. And anyway, there's not much evidence that voters in mainland GB give a monkeys about the Irish border - I think there was a poll the other day that said most people in England would happily give NI to the republic rather than sacrifice Brexit? Though I can see this solution might cause some difficulties for the DUP.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    This is a very good explanation of the issues facing the car industry if their is a WTO style Brexit. It mainly focuses on the German car industry but also covers the implications for other EU, RoW and UK based manufacturers. It call be titled why the UK car industry will increase after Brexit.

    https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/de/Documents/Brexit/Brexit-Briefings_Pt5_Hard-Brexit-German-car-industry.pdf

    It shows that German carmakers are actually quite an important factor in securing us a decent Brexit deal, if not the only factor.
    Also it does not cover the supply chain which will move here and cause a lot more than 18,000 lost jobs in Germany.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,413
    Mr. Nick, if it's impossible, why was Varadkar's predecessor working with us on it?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,390

    Though I can see this solution might cause some difficulties for the DUP.

    And the DUP could quickly pull down the Gov't if say a customs border was implemented between Belfast and Liverpool.

    I've seen plenty of debate as to whether Brexit is a good or a bad idea on here, but no NI solutions that I can see are satisfactory to both the EU and the DUP.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,641
    St Paul's Girls' School 'Austerity Day' criticised

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-44578499

    Can’t win...if they did nothing they would be criticised be for out of touch, if they served crap, they would be criticised for serving unhealthy stuff to kids, ....
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 6,453
    RobD said:

    Sean_F said:

    surby said:

    Only one country is leaving the EU. If the wings were made in France there would be no need of a frictionless border as there would not be one.

    If there is literally no deal, wings made in the UK will not be certified for air worthiness. That would mean Airbus couldn't sell any planes at all. It would take them years to move production elsewhere, so talk of moving production is irrelevant to the point.

    I don't know whether our EU friends have quite cottoned on to this yet, but they do seem to be showing a quite remarkable lack of urgency in getting down to substantive talks, given that we leave in 10 months' time.
    Airbus paralyised by the EU commission from day 1 of a no deal. No wonder they are firing a warning at the EU and indeed so have the German car manufacturers today just before Trump's 20% tariff on their cars has been announced.

    Both sides need to stop point scoring and act like grown ups
    But in the eyes of most of Europe, and most of business, it's the UK that caused this mess and not the EU Commission. The people who will be blamed if (when?) Brexit goes tits up will be May and the Brexiteers. The government's uttlerly shambolic approach and Davis's insouciance guarantee that blame will be laid at their door. FFS he demanded parallel negotiations on withdrawal and the future relationship nearly 2 years ago and yet even now the government can't agree on what future relationship it is looking for! You cannot blame the EU for not taking him seriously.
    If everything goes tits up, then I expect that both this government, and the EU negotiators will get blamed.
    But if we've left the EU then the eurocrats won't be around for us to turn on; it will be Theresa and co. completely in the firing line. And you know what that means - Jezza striding to the door of Number 10 in his new, good suit.
    Don’t worry. The eurocrats will be blamed for years to come.
    But wholly irrelevant as far as British politics will be concerned. I suppose Boris could campaign under the slogan 'Don't blame me it was Junks wot did it' if nothing else comes to mind, but that will hardly wrap the country in a warm, optimistic glow.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 41,486

    This is a very good explanation of the issues facing the car industry if their is a WTO style Brexit. It mainly focuses on the German car industry but also covers the implications for other EU, RoW and UK based manufacturers. It call be titled why the UK car industry will increase after Brexit.

    https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/de/Documents/Brexit/Brexit-Briefings_Pt5_Hard-Brexit-German-car-industry.pdf

    It shows that German carmakers are actually quite an important factor in securing us a decent Brexit deal, if not the only factor.
    Also it does not cover the supply chain which will move here and cause a lot more than 18,000 lost jobs in Germany.
    Ssssshht.. you’re not “on message” with the Brexit will be a disaster meme.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 41,486
    Pulpstar said:

    Though I can see this solution might cause some difficulties for the DUP.

    And the DUP could quickly pull down the Gov't if say a customs border was implemented between Belfast and Liverpool.

    I've seen plenty of debate as to whether Brexit is a good or a bad idea on here, but no NI solutions that I can see are satisfactory to both the EU and the DUP.
    I think it’s a trailblazer for the broader question of the future EU-UK relationship, even if it is pretended to be the other way round.

    Once there’s broad agreement on the former, the NI will be rapidly settled with a degree of flexibility from all sides.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 23,521

    How can we maintain an open border with the EU while being completely unencumbered by it?

    Since I have claimed neither position your question is pointless.
    Since you deny reality your opinions are pointless.
    Answer the specific point I made. You made two claims which were completely unsupported. Mind you since your whole world view is unsupported by reality I can see how you got yourself into such an indefensible position.
    My question was: "How can we maintain an open border with the EU while being completely unencumbered by it?"

    We need to maintain an open border because of the political reality on the island of Ireland and 'being completely unencumbered by the EU' is a reasonable synonym for 'standing alone in political independence'.

    So what's your answer?
    We do not need to maintain an open border.
    Denial of reality, so I was right the first time.
    Nope. It is you who is delusional. There is no need to have an open border.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    new thread

This discussion has been closed.