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  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 17,304
    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Mr. Barnesian, I quite like the Myers-Briggs approach, although only in a loose, broad way (believing there are precisely sixteen types of people in the world is only mildly better than believing in astrology).

    Hmm. Potential for a PB article on that sort of thing, perhaps.

    If you superimpose the 16 Myers-Briggs personality types onto the four basic political beliefs you end up with 64 types which is enough to be going on with. Many are represented on PB. @Pulpstar for instance I think is an ENTJ Libertarian Economic Right. I am an ENFJ Libertarian Economic Left.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_compass
    I am indeed in the libertarian right quadrant whenever I do that quiz/test but only about a third of the way along the right and about a pixel below the centre line. For instance I think the NHS is a decent enough system of delivering healthcare and wouldn't scrap it which a true libertarian certainly would.

    ON making decisions and sticking to them, it's a source of occasional disagreement in our relationship when my fiancee changes her mind about something we've planned ! I prefer to stick to plans.
    But you know when to change your mind when it comes to betting.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,102

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The big news from the Eurozone is this: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3365727-eurozone-agrees-end-greek-bailout

    10 years of no interest payments is - of course - equivalent to about a 30% debt write off... without it actually being called a debt write off,

    yes.

    and although Id say about time too, the fact remains Greece still needs a debt write off.

    It is a debt write off, just a hidden one. Imagine you had debt of $100, and were paying $3 interest a year on it.

    Now, if that was cut to $80, and you were now paying $2.40 a year, that would be a 20% debt write off, and that would be obvious.

    Imagine instead that you weren't required to make 10 years if interest payments of $3, you would be essentially as well off as a 20% cut in the principle and interest payments.

    If Greece used the money they were going to pay in interest every year to pay down their debt, then they would cut their debt loading by somewhere between 20 and 30% (I don't know the exact interest rates on Greek debt).
    rcs

    I do understand how they've hidden it, but in my view they needed both. The Germans have hammered Greece for 10 years and need to accept they were complicit in letting Greece in to a system they couldn't manage.

    Every time I see Merkel lecturing the rest of the world about compassion and solidarity I just look at Greece and say yeah right.
    It's easy to blame Germany, the ECB, the Commission, Goldman Sachs (?) and so on for massaging / ignoring the figures that allowed Greece to join the Euro - not least because there is blame to be assigned there - but the greater portion of the blame should be levelled at how the Greek government and public behaved between 2002-08. No-one forced them to spend their interest bonus on the equivalent of partying and days off.
    Forget the morality tale. The Eurozone system is broken, and in a way that benefits Germany, which is unfortunate as probably only Germany can fix it.
    It benefits those who are responsible. That is not a bug; it's a feature. The system - and the rules implemented to enforce it - was specifically designed to bring about a change in behaviour (to Germanise, if you like), less productive economies. It is not Germany that benefits, as such; it's countries that behave with the self-discipline and responsibility of Germany. That's a club that's open to anyone, in theory at least.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 6,872
    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Mr. Barnesian, I quite like the Myers-Briggs approach, although only in a loose, broad way (believing there are precisely sixteen types of people in the world is only mildly better than believing in astrology).

    Hmm. Potential for a PB article on that sort of thing, perhaps.

    If you superimpose the 16 Myers-Briggs personality types onto the four basic political beliefs you end up with 64 types which is enough to be going on with. Many are represented on PB. @Pulpstar for instance I think is an ENTJ Libertarian Economic Right. I am an ENFJ Libertarian Economic Left.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_compass
    I am indeed in the libertarian right quadrant whenever I do that quiz/test but only about a third of the way along the right and about a pixel below the centre line.
    ON making decisions and sticking to them, it's a source of occasional disagreement in our relationship when my fiancee changes her mind about something we've planned ! I prefer to stick to plans.
    Yes I think you are an ENTJ (Sergeant Major) like Mrs T. You'd make a good CEO but are capable of driving the bus over a cliff because you hate changing course. I'm an ENFJ (Teacher) like Gorbachev.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,491
    edited June 2018

    Scott_P said:

    Wrong.

    Top JLR boss Andy Goss told Sky News that its investment in a car plant in Slovakia should now be seen as a "hedge" against uncertainty around the post-Brexit trading environment.

    https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-forensics-why-car-industry-is-getting-worried-11041671
    The car factory they began building in 2015 ?

    Do you think they were planning on leaving it idle ?
    Tbh, it's a fairly standard business decision they've made. Move the mature manufacturing process of an older model to a lower cost centre, and use the higher cost centre to develop new models which will need much more oversight from UK based engineering teams. I really don't see what the fuss is all about.

    As for Airbus UK, that is much more perilous, it's a French company, owned partially by the French government who are looking to bring back jobs and investment to France. Until now the Welsh operation has been highly efficient and kept itself in the game. Brexit gives the French government a huge stick to beat Airbus with and I think they would be stupid not to use it to their advantage to either get Airbus back to France, or to help Airbus to get some kind of subsidy or investment concession from the UK government.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The big news from the Eurozone is this: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3365727-eurozone-agrees-end-greek-bailout

    10 years of no interest payments is - of course - equivalent to about a 30% debt write off... without it actually being called a debt write off,

    yes.

    and although Id say about time too, the fact remains Greece still needs a debt write off.

    It is a debt write off, just a hidden one. Imagine you had debt of $100, and were paying $3 interest a year on it.

    Now, if that was cut to $80, and you were now paying $2.40 a year, that would be a 20% debt write off, and that would be obvious.

    Imagine instead that you weren't required to make 10 years if interest payments of $3, you would be essentially as well off as a 20% cut in the principle and interest payments.

    If Greece used the money they were going to pay in interest every year to pay down their debt, then they would cut their debt loading by somewhere between 20 and 30% (I don't know the exact interest rates on Greek debt).
    rcs

    I do understand how they've hidden it, but in my view they needed both. The Germans have hammered Greece for 10 years and need to accept they were complicit in letting Greece in to a system they couldn't manage.

    Every time I see Merkel lecturing the rest of the world about compassion and solidarity I just look at Greece and say yeah right.
    It's easy to blame Germany, the ECB, the Commission, Goldman Sachs (?) and so on for massaging / ignoring the figures that allowed Greece to join the Euro - not least because there is blame to be assigned there - but the greater portion of the blame should be levelled at how the Greek government and public behaved between 2002-08. No-one forced them to spend their interest bonus on the equivalent of partying and days off.
    Forget the morality tale. The Eurozone system is broken, and in a way that benefits Germany, which is unfortunate as probably only Germany can fix it.
    It benefits those who are responsible. That is not a bug; it's a feature. The system - and the rules implemented to enforce it - was specifically designed to bring about a change in behaviour (to Germanise, if you like), less productive economies. It is not Germany that benefits, as such; it's countries that behave with the self-discipline and responsibility of Germany. That's a club that's open to anyone, in theory at least.
    So the real question is which other countries have benefited?
    I would suggest maybe Ireland and Czech as the only 2.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,390
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Mr. Barnesian, I quite like the Myers-Briggs approach, although only in a loose, broad way (believing there are precisely sixteen types of people in the world is only mildly better than believing in astrology).

    Hmm. Potential for a PB article on that sort of thing, perhaps.

    If you superimpose the 16 Myers-Briggs personality types onto the four basic political beliefs you end up with 64 types which is enough to be going on with. Many are represented on PB. @Pulpstar for instance I think is an ENTJ Libertarian Economic Right. I am an ENFJ Libertarian Economic Left.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_compass
    I am indeed in the libertarian right quadrant whenever I do that quiz/test but only about a third of the way along the right and about a pixel below the centre line. For instance I think the NHS is a decent enough system of delivering healthcare and wouldn't scrap it which a true libertarian certainly would.

    ON making decisions and sticking to them, it's a source of occasional disagreement in our relationship when my fiancee changes her mind about something we've planned ! I prefer to stick to plans.
    But you know when to change your mind when it comes to betting.
    Most of the time, I don't always get it right though - like the day GE2017 was announced I doubled down on "No 2017 GE" lol.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,135
    New law on 'upskirting' to be presented to parliament. Bad news for Milton Krasner....

    https://www.youbioit.com/en/article/image/304/marilyns-famous-blowing-skirt-image?size=_original
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 37,032

    It benefits those who are responsible. That is not a bug; it's a feature. The system - and the rules implemented to enforce it - was specifically designed to bring about a change in behaviour (to Germanise, if you like), less productive economies. It is not Germany that benefits, as such; it's countries that behave with the self-discipline and responsibility of Germany. That's a club that's open to anyone, in theory at least.

    So the real question is which other countries have benefited?
    I would suggest maybe Ireland and Czech as the only 2.
    The Czech Republic isn't in the Euro yet.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 17,304
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Mr. Barnesian, I quite like the Myers-Briggs approach, although only in a loose, broad way (believing there are precisely sixteen types of people in the world is only mildly better than believing in astrology).

    Hmm. Potential for a PB article on that sort of thing, perhaps.

    If you superimpose the 16 Myers-Briggs personality types onto the four basic political beliefs you end up with 64 types which is enough to be going on with. Many are represented on PB. @Pulpstar for instance I think is an ENTJ Libertarian Economic Right. I am an ENFJ Libertarian Economic Left.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_compass
    I am indeed in the libertarian right quadrant whenever I do that quiz/test but only about a third of the way along the right and about a pixel below the centre line. For instance I think the NHS is a decent enough system of delivering healthcare and wouldn't scrap it which a true libertarian certainly would.

    ON making decisions and sticking to them, it's a source of occasional disagreement in our relationship when my fiancee changes her mind about something we've planned ! I prefer to stick to plans.
    But you know when to change your mind when it comes to betting.
    Most of the time, I don't always get it right though - like the day GE2017 was announced I doubled down on "No 2017 GE" lol.
    What did you think the statement was going to be about?
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    Wrong.

    Top JLR boss Andy Goss told Sky News that its investment in a car plant in Slovakia should now be seen as a "hedge" against uncertainty around the post-Brexit trading environment.

    https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-forensics-why-car-industry-is-getting-worried-11041671
    The car factory they began building in 2015 ?

    Do you think they were planning on leaving it idle ?
    Tbh, it's a fairly standard business decision they've made. Move the mature manufacturing process of an older model to a lower cost centre, and use the higher cost centre to develop new models which will need much more oversight from UK based engineering teams. I really don't see what the fuss is all about.

    As for Airbus UK, that is much more perilous, it's a French company, owned partially by the French government who are looking to bring back jobs and investment to France. Until now the Welsh operation has been highly efficient and kept itself in the game. Brexit gives the French government a huge stick to beat Airbus with and I think they would be stupid not to use it to their advantage to either get Airbus back to France, or to help Airbus to get some kind of subsidy or investment concession from the UK government.
    Airbus already gets lots of money from the UK Govt. For R&D it is the ATI. For new plane launches they get launch funds (which are in theory repayable in the case of a success) 450mil for the A350. Losses are made good A400m Program. Then the UK govt buys lots of Airbus kit for defence, etc.
    The UK taxpayer is a goldmine for Airbus.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    You can see why ROI want a hard border - their punative tax on alcohol must make smuggling from the more enlightened Ulster very attractive

    https://twitter.com/KarlBrophy/status/1009711405174546432

  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    It benefits those who are responsible. That is not a bug; it's a feature. The system - and the rules implemented to enforce it - was specifically designed to bring about a change in behaviour (to Germanise, if you like), less productive economies. It is not Germany that benefits, as such; it's countries that behave with the self-discipline and responsibility of Germany. That's a club that's open to anyone, in theory at least.

    So the real question is which other countries have benefited?
    I would suggest maybe Ireland and Czech as the only 2.
    The Czech Republic isn't in the Euro yet.
    Wrong half, Slovakia.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,491

    It benefits those who are responsible. That is not a bug; it's a feature. The system - and the rules implemented to enforce it - was specifically designed to bring about a change in behaviour (to Germanise, if you like), less productive economies. It is not Germany that benefits, as such; it's countries that behave with the self-discipline and responsibility of Germany. That's a club that's open to anyone, in theory at least.

    That makes the stupid assumption that every country can be like Germany. If the EMU was completely Germanised the Euro would rapidly gain value until it reached $2 which would end in a recession caused by deflation and a complete seizure of EMU consumers.

    Germany only works as an economy because there are a bunch of weaker members holding the currency down. Usually in a system like that the stronger members would live with 10-15% of GDP being transferred to the weaker ones (see the US) but in the EU is is about 1% and the transfer system has 35% of it allocated to agricultural subsidies which disproportionately helps richer land owners in the wealthier parts of Europe.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,865
    Scott_P said:
    I'm am altering the deal, pray I don't alter it any further...
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 642
    I had a meeting with Scottish Enterprise recently and it made we were reflecting on how poor the Scottish economy has done in the last 10 years. Is the fact that our politics has been dominated by Scottish independence a contributory factor? It is hard to pin point one Government action that has led to the decline more a continual absence of positive action.
    Many Scots including myself voted Tory at the last Scottish election for less and better politics. We are now caught up in a second nightmare with Brexit.

    A factory closure is the last stage of a long process of under investment. Business investment is dire at the moment and this will catch up with us in the next 5 years. By then we will all be a lot poorer unless the Government quickly finds a way to reverse the trend.


  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,102



    rcs

    I do understand how they've hidden it, but in my view they needed both. The Germans have hammered Greece for 10 years and need to accept they were complicit in letting Greece in to a system they couldn't manage.

    Every time I see Merkel lecturing the rest of the world about compassion and solidarity I just look at Greece and say yeah right.

    It's easy to blame Germany, the ECB, the Commission, Goldman Sachs (?) and so on for massaging / ignoring the figures that allowed Greece to join the Euro - not least because there is blame to be assigned there - but the greater portion of the blame should be levelled at how the Greek government and public behaved between 2002-08. No-one forced them to spend their interest bonus on the equivalent of partying and days off.
    Forget the morality tale. The Eurozone system is broken, and in a way that benefits Germany, which is unfortunate as probably only Germany can fix it.
    It benefits those who are responsible. That is not a bug; it's a feature. The system - and the rules implemented to enforce it - was specifically designed to bring about a change in behaviour (to Germanise, if you like), less productive economies. It is not Germany that benefits, as such; it's countries that behave with the self-discipline and responsibility of Germany. That's a club that's open to anyone, in theory at least.
    So the real question is which other countries have benefited?
    I would suggest maybe Ireland and Czech as the only 2.
    The Czech Republic isn't in the Eurozone, though Slovakia is, and might well be one that's benefitted. The Benelux ones certainly have, for the same reasons as Germany and, as smaller economies, a common currency is more beneficial too. That might prove to be the case for the Baltic states too, though it's too early to tell there - where Eurozone membership is a strategic political decision as much as an economic one: it's essential to them that they are seen as part of the club by their large partners.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,390
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Mr. Barnesian, I quite like the Myers-Briggs approach, although only in a loose, broad way (believing there are precisely sixteen types of people in the world is only mildly better than believing in astrology).

    Hmm. Potential for a PB article on that sort of thing, perhaps.

    If you superimpose the 16 Myers-Briggs personality types onto the four basic political beliefs you end up with 64 types which is enough to be going on with. Many are represented on PB. @Pulpstar for instance I think is an ENTJ Libertarian Economic Right. I am an ENFJ Libertarian Economic Left.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_compass
    I am indeed in the libertarian right quadrant whenever I do that quiz/test but only about a third of the way along the right and about a pixel below the centre line. For instance I think the NHS is a decent enough system of delivering healthcare and wouldn't scrap it which a true libertarian certainly would.

    ON making decisions and sticking to them, it's a source of occasional disagreement in our relationship when my fiancee changes her mind about something we've planned ! I prefer to stick to plans.
    But you know when to change your mind when it comes to betting.
    Most of the time, I don't always get it right though - like the day GE2017 was announced I doubled down on "No 2017 GE" lol.
    What did you think the statement was going to be about?
    Something royal or NI related. I'd listened to the normally wise Rod Crosby and Mike Smithson both suggest it probably wouldn't happen due to the FTPA, and also attended an event where Sir Pat McCloughlin spoke categorically ruling out an early election xD
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,102
    MaxPB said:

    It benefits those who are responsible. That is not a bug; it's a feature. The system - and the rules implemented to enforce it - was specifically designed to bring about a change in behaviour (to Germanise, if you like), less productive economies. It is not Germany that benefits, as such; it's countries that behave with the self-discipline and responsibility of Germany. That's a club that's open to anyone, in theory at least.

    That makes the stupid assumption that every country can be like Germany. If the EMU was completely Germanised the Euro would rapidly gain value until it reached $2 which would end in a recession caused by deflation and a complete seizure of EMU consumers.

    Germany only works as an economy because there are a bunch of weaker members holding the currency down. Usually in a system like that the stronger members would live with 10-15% of GDP being transferred to the weaker ones (see the US) but in the EU is is about 1% and the transfer system has 35% of it allocated to agricultural subsidies which disproportionately helps richer land owners in the wealthier parts of Europe.
    On what are you basing your €1=$2 assessment? I don't see why the Euro would rise so high as to cause a recession - certainly it would rise but the natural balances that would bring about would limit its extent.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,413
    On topic - seems to me the most interesting number in this poll is the large majority in favour of a referendum on the final deal.

    Since the UK will clearly get a crap deal the chances of another referendum are increasing.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,211
    HYUFD said:

    If this isn't a temporary skew and becomes a trend,it seems hard to see come party conference Labour being able to resist calls for a second vote.

    It can when Corbyn's aides now have a majority on the NEC and he needs working class Labour Leave seats for a majority
    I think where you are wrong is that you are talking about Labour leave voters' attitudes 2 years ago. Wasn't it Yougov that reported that 28% of Labour Leave voters already think it was a mistake? If we do head towards a No Deal and Airbus looks like closing down in the UK the pressure on Corbyn to change his tune will become irresistible, It's debatabe how long he can hold the line now when only 19% of Labour voters think Brexit was the right decision.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 19,761

    Sean_F said:

    Morning all,

    Have we crossed over from Project Fear to Project Panic yet?

    Project Grim Reality.
    So record employment, falling government borrowing, falling trade deficit and rebalancing economy.
    Yeh, but that aside, it's Grim Reality.
    But all that is risk from a bad Brexit.
    There are risks in most things including continuing the current situation when the current situation isn't working.

    And for much of the last twenty years the current situation hasn't been working well for the UK.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 37,032

    The Czech Republic isn't in the Eurozone, though Slovakia is, and might well be one that's benefitted. The Benelux ones certainly have, for the same reasons as Germany and, as smaller economies, a common currency is more beneficial too. That might prove to be the case for the Baltic states too, though it's too early to tell there - where Eurozone membership is a strategic political decision as much as an economic one: it's essential to them that they are seen as part of the club by their large partners.

    Talking of strategic political decisions relating to the Euro, this is a very sympathetic and interesting take on Helmut Kohl - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/helmut-kohls-theory-europe-thomas-klau/

    That the euro had to be launched in a state of half-baked imperfection in 1999 was caused by the political impossibility at the time to get France, Germany and other key countries to agree to a fuller transfer of sovereign power. That the euro had to be launched anyway was due to the absolute urgency created by German unification — not, Kohl stressed time and again, because the euro was the price to pay for it; but because delaying its introduction beyond 1999 would allow re-united Germany to become so powerful amongst its neighbours that obtaining the consent of a political majority of Germans to trade their national currency for a European one would no longer be possible.

    Germany, her Chancellor explained, was now labouring under the enormous burden of absorbing a bankrupt country of 17 million inhabitants. This created a temporary phase of relative German weakness that would not last long, a phase that must be seized to launch the euro because such an opportunity might never occur again. “Man muss den Mantel der Geschichte fassen”, said the Chancellor with his blurred Palatine accent; the ‘cloak of history’ must be grasped because soon, it would be too late; the danger of a fully sovereign united Germany destabilising Europe must be averted at any cost.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 19,761
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    Wrong.

    Top JLR boss Andy Goss told Sky News that its investment in a car plant in Slovakia should now be seen as a "hedge" against uncertainty around the post-Brexit trading environment.

    https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-forensics-why-car-industry-is-getting-worried-11041671
    The car factory they began building in 2015 ?

    Do you think they were planning on leaving it idle ?
    Tbh, it's a fairly standard business decision they've made. Move the mature manufacturing process of an older model to a lower cost centre, and use the higher cost centre to develop new models which will need much more oversight from UK based engineering teams. I really don't see what the fuss is all about.

    As for Airbus UK, that is much more perilous, it's a French company, owned partially by the French government who are looking to bring back jobs and investment to France. Until now the Welsh operation has been highly efficient and kept itself in the game. Brexit gives the French government a huge stick to beat Airbus with and I think they would be stupid not to use it to their advantage to either get Airbus back to France, or to help Airbus to get some kind of subsidy or investment concession from the UK government.
    Your last line suggests what the issue is all about.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,491

    MaxPB said:

    It benefits those who are responsible. That is not a bug; it's a feature. The system - and the rules implemented to enforce it - was specifically designed to bring about a change in behaviour (to Germanise, if you like), less productive economies. It is not Germany that benefits, as such; it's countries that behave with the self-discipline and responsibility of Germany. That's a club that's open to anyone, in theory at least.

    That makes the stupid assumption that every country can be like Germany. If the EMU was completely Germanised the Euro would rapidly gain value until it reached $2 which would end in a recession caused by deflation and a complete seizure of EMU consumers.

    Germany only works as an economy because there are a bunch of weaker members holding the currency down. Usually in a system like that the stronger members would live with 10-15% of GDP being transferred to the weaker ones (see the US) but in the EU is is about 1% and the transfer system has 35% of it allocated to agricultural subsidies which disproportionately helps richer land owners in the wealthier parts of Europe.
    On what are you basing your €1=$2 assessment? I don't see why the Euro would rise so high as to cause a recession - certainly it would rise but the natural balances that would bring about would limit its extent.
    Because that's what the DM would be worth around now. A currency rise that rapid would result in a deflationary spiral which would cause consumers to stop spending and that leads to a recession followed by years of dealing with the effects of deflation.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 16,444

    Morning all,

    Have we crossed over from Project Fear to Project Panic yet?

    Project Grim Reality.
    So record employment, falling government borrowing, falling trade deficit and rebalancing economy.
    George Osborne’s golden legacy.
    No that is BREXIT
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    It's easy to blame Germany, the ECB, the Commission, Goldman Sachs (?) and so on for massaging / ignoring the figures that allowed Greece to join the Euro - not least because there is blame to be assigned there - but the greater portion of the blame should be levelled at how the Greek government and public behaved between 2002-08. No-one forced them to spend their interest bonus on the equivalent of partying and days off.

    Forget the morality tale. The Eurozone system is broken, and in a way that benefits Germany, which is unfortunate as probably only Germany can fix it.
    It benefits those who are responsible. That is not a bug; it's a feature. The system - and the rules implemented to enforce it - was specifically designed to bring about a change in behaviour (to Germanise, if you like), less productive economies. It is not Germany that benefits, as such; it's countries that behave with the self-discipline and responsibility of Germany. That's a club that's open to anyone, in theory at least.
    It benefits Germany. Firstly because Germany is the most Germany-like country in Europe; secondly because it gives German exporters an artificially low exchange rate (which also discourages imports) because the German Euro is dragged down by the Greek and Italian Euros; but mainly because it locks in the artificially low exchange rate the Deutschmark had temporarily during reunification.
  • BREXIT is such a massive fuck-up that Theresa May is quitting politics for a less stressful life working in Aldi.

    After spending several weeks trying to stop MPs fighting over deals that will never exist, May is resigning to retrain as a store assistant at an Aldi in Bracknell.

    May said: “As you might have noticed from my constant strained grimace and cack-handed bungling of everything I do, I’m finding Brexit to be a total fucking nightmare.

    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/may-jacking-it-in-for-job-at-aldi-20180622174493
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,508
    Cyclefree said:

    I think even Alastair Meeks would agree that there is no great love for the EU in this country-many people think we are better off in it, but don't particularly like it

    There's no "even" about it. I'm not a fan of the EU. Never have been. I'm certainly not impressed with how they're handling Brexit.

    And yet, when you compare them with the performance being put on by Leavers and the government, which resembles a collective breakdown, they look stellar.
    My thoughts exactly.

    Anyway it is the start of a gloriously sunny day in the Lakes so we’re off to do some sailing, pub visiting and the like.

    Bye!
    Which lake ?
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Mr. Barnesian, I quite like the Myers-Briggs approach, although only in a loose, broad way (believing there are precisely sixteen types of people in the world is only mildly better than believing in astrology).

    Hmm. Potential for a PB article on that sort of thing, perhaps.

    If you superimpose the 16 Myers-Briggs personality types onto the four basic political beliefs you end up with 64 types which is enough to be going on with. Many are represented on PB. @Pulpstar for instance I think is an ENTJ Libertarian Economic Right. I am an ENFJ Libertarian Economic Left.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_compass
    I am indeed in the libertarian right quadrant whenever I do that quiz/test but only about a third of the way along the right and about a pixel below the centre line. For instance I think the NHS is a decent enough system of delivering healthcare and wouldn't scrap it which a true libertarian certainly would.

    ON making decisions and sticking to them, it's a source of occasional disagreement in our relationship when my fiancee changes her mind about something we've planned ! I prefer to stick to plans.
    But you know when to change your mind when it comes to betting.
    Most of the time, I don't always get it right though - like the day GE2017 was announced I doubled down on "No 2017 GE" lol.
    What did you think the statement was going to be about?
    Something royal or NI related. I'd listened to the normally wise Rod Crosby and Mike Smithson both suggest it probably wouldn't happen due to the FTPA, and also attended an event where Sir Pat McCloughlin spoke categorically ruling out an early election xD
    Rod Crosby is a vicious antisemite holocaust denier. He used to post on this forum and was an abhorrent figure.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 17,304
    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Mr. Barnesian, I quite like the Myers-Briggs approach, although only in a loose, broad way (believing there are precisely sixteen types of people in the world is only mildly better than believing in astrology).

    Hmm. Potential for a PB article on that sort of thing, perhaps.

    If you superimpose the 16 Myers-Briggs personality types onto the four basic political beliefs you end up with 64 types which is enough to be going on with. Many are represented on PB. @Pulpstar for instance I think is an ENTJ Libertarian Economic Right. I am an ENFJ Libertarian Economic Left.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_compass
    I am indeed in the libertarian right quadrant whenever I do that quiz/test but only about a third of the way along the right and about a pixel below the centre line. For instance I think the NHS is a decent enough system of delivering healthcare and wouldn't scrap it which a true libertarian certainly would.

    ON making decisions and sticking to them, it's a source of occasional disagreement in our relationship when my fiancee changes her mind about something we've planned ! I prefer to stick to plans.
    But you know when to change your mind when it comes to betting.
    Most of the time, I don't always get it right though - like the day GE2017 was announced I doubled down on "No 2017 GE" lol.
    What did you think the statement was going to be about?
    Something royal or NI related. I'd listened to the normally wise Rod Crosby and Mike Smithson both suggest it probably wouldn't happen due to the FTPA, and also attended an event where Sir Pat McCloughlin spoke categorically ruling out an early election xD
    Rod Crosby is a vicious antisemite holocaust denier. He used to post on this forum and was an abhorrent figure.
    But he did call the 2015 GE correct from a long way out.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting random fact picked up on Twitter. Airbus' tax bill covers 20% of EU membership cost.

    Ummm: I very much doubt that Airbus pays £3bn in UK corporation tax.
    Well as it happens there is a report on its contribution to the UK economy that I have just discovered.

    file:///Users/colinsanders/Downloads/Airbus%20Oxford%20Economics%20Report.pdf

    Corporation tax was £1.7bn, so not too far off.

    But the precise details don't matter. The important point is that Brexit will cost us a lot and the sooner leavers start admitting that their preferred course of action is going to make us all poorer the sooner we can start having a grown up debate about what we do about it.


    That €1.7bn is Airbus as a whole, not Airbus UK. Airbus UK looks to have posted a net operating loss in the UK (usually this is done via transfer pricing which transfers the profits into a lower tax centre like Ireland or the Netherlands) and received a tax credit for the year.
    If only there was some kind of international organisation we could join that would have the power to mitigate the effects of transfer pricing.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,102

    The Czech Republic isn't in the Eurozone, though Slovakia is, and might well be one that's benefitted. The Benelux ones certainly have, for the same reasons as Germany and, as smaller economies, a common currency is more beneficial too. That might prove to be the case for the Baltic states too, though it's too early to tell there - where Eurozone membership is a strategic political decision as much as an economic one: it's essential to them that they are seen as part of the club by their large partners.

    Talking of strategic political decisions relating to the Euro, this is a very sympathetic and interesting take on Helmut Kohl - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/helmut-kohls-theory-europe-thomas-klau/

    That the euro had to be launched in a state of half-baked imperfection in 1999 was caused by the political impossibility at the time to get France, Germany and other key countries to agree to a fuller transfer of sovereign power. That the euro had to be launched anyway was due to the absolute urgency created by German unification — not, Kohl stressed time and again, because the euro was the price to pay for it; but because delaying its introduction beyond 1999 would allow re-united Germany to become so powerful amongst its neighbours that obtaining the consent of a political majority of Germans to trade their national currency for a European one would no longer be possible.

    Germany, her Chancellor explained, was now labouring under the enormous burden of absorbing a bankrupt country of 17 million inhabitants. This created a temporary phase of relative German weakness that would not last long, a phase that must be seized to launch the euro because such an opportunity might never occur again. “Man muss den Mantel der Geschichte fassen”, said the Chancellor with his blurred Palatine accent; the ‘cloak of history’ must be grasped because soon, it would be too late; the danger of a fully sovereign united Germany destabilising Europe must be averted at any cost.
    Cheers, that actually ties in exactly to the piece I'm writing for tomorrow (though mine has more reference to football).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,390
    edited June 2018
    tlg86 said:

    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Mr. Barnesian, I quite like the Myers-Briggs approach, although only in a loose, broad way (believing there are precisely sixteen types of people in the world is only mildly better than believing in astrology).

    Hmm. Potential for a PB article on that sort of thing, perhaps.

    If you superimpose the 16 Myers-Briggs personality types onto the four basic political beliefs you end up with 64 types which is enough to be going on with. Many are represented on PB. @Pulpstar for instance I think is an ENTJ Libertarian Economic Right. I am an ENFJ Libertarian Economic Left.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_compass
    I am indeed in the libertarian right quadrant whenever I do that quiz/test but only about a third of the way along the right and about a pixel below the centre line. For instance I think the NHS is a decent enough system of delivering healthcare and wouldn't scrap it which a true libertarian certainly would.

    ON making decisions and sticking to them, it's a source of occasional disagreement in our relationship when my fiancee changes her mind about something we've planned ! I prefer to stick to plans.
    But you know when to change your mind when it comes to betting.
    Most of the time, I don't always get it right though - like the day GE2017 was announced I doubled down on "No 2017 GE" lol.
    What did you think the statement was going to be about?
    Something royal or NI related. I'd listened to the normally wise Rod Crosby and Mike Smithson both suggest it probably wouldn't happen due to the FTPA, and also attended an event where Sir Pat McCloughlin spoke categorically ruling out an early election xD
    Rod Crosby is a vicious antisemite holocaust denier. He used to post on this forum and was an abhorrent figure.
    But he did call the 2015 GE correct from a long way out.
    And 2010 and Trump. Personally I never saw any anti-semitic posts from him either, though I have not gone looking for such posts.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,102
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    It benefits those who are responsible. That is not a bug; it's a feature. The system - and the rules implemented to enforce it - was specifically designed to bring about a change in behaviour (to Germanise, if you like), less productive economies. It is not Germany that benefits, as such; it's countries that behave with the self-discipline and responsibility of Germany. That's a club that's open to anyone, in theory at least.

    That makes the stupid assumption that every country can be like Germany. If the EMU was completely Germanised the Euro would rapidly gain value until it reached $2 which would end in a recession caused by deflation and a complete seizure of EMU consumers.

    Germany only works as an economy because there are a bunch of weaker members holding the currency down. Usually in a system like that the stronger members would live with 10-15% of GDP being transferred to the weaker ones (see the US) but in the EU is is about 1% and the transfer system has 35% of it allocated to agricultural subsidies which disproportionately helps richer land owners in the wealthier parts of Europe.
    On what are you basing your €1=$2 assessment? I don't see why the Euro would rise so high as to cause a recession - certainly it would rise but the natural balances that would bring about would limit its extent.
    Because that's what the DM would be worth around now. A currency rise that rapid would result in a deflationary spiral which would cause consumers to stop spending and that leads to a recession followed by years of dealing with the effects of deflation.
    But do you not that that assessment is inherently self-contradictory? A currency would not soar at the same time that its economy collapsed.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 17,304

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting random fact picked up on Twitter. Airbus' tax bill covers 20% of EU membership cost.

    Ummm: I very much doubt that Airbus pays £3bn in UK corporation tax.
    Well as it happens there is a report on its contribution to the UK economy that I have just discovered.

    file:///Users/colinsanders/Downloads/Airbus%20Oxford%20Economics%20Report.pdf

    Corporation tax was £1.7bn, so not too far off.

    But the precise details don't matter. The important point is that Brexit will cost us a lot and the sooner leavers start admitting that their preferred course of action is going to make us all poorer the sooner we can start having a grown up debate about what we do about it.


    That €1.7bn is Airbus as a whole, not Airbus UK. Airbus UK looks to have posted a net operating loss in the UK (usually this is done via transfer pricing which transfers the profits into a lower tax centre like Ireland or the Netherlands) and received a tax credit for the year.
    If only there was some kind of international organisation we could join that would have the power to mitigate the effects of transfer pricing.
    So in the space of a few hours you've gone from claiming that Airbus pay tax equivalent to 20% of our EU membership fee to saying that if we were a member of the EU we could stop them dodging tax.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 19,611

    I had a meeting with Scottish Enterprise recently and it made we were reflecting on how poor the Scottish economy has done in the last 10 years. Is the fact that our politics has been dominated by Scottish independence a contributory factor? It is hard to pin point one Government action that has led to the decline more a continual absence of positive action.
    Many Scots including myself voted Tory at the last Scottish election for less and better politics. We are now caught up in a second nightmare with Brexit.

    A factory closure is the last stage of a long process of under investment. Business investment is dire at the moment and this will catch up with us in the next 5 years. By then we will all be a lot poorer unless the Government quickly finds a way to reverse the trend.


    Could try being an independent country with full control over all economic levers?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,102
    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Mr. Barnesian, I quite like the Myers-Briggs approach, although only in a loose, broad way (believing there are precisely sixteen types of people in the world is only mildly better than believing in astrology).

    Hmm. Potential for a PB article on that sort of thing, perhaps.

    If you superimpose the 16 Myers-Briggs personality types onto the four basic political beliefs you end up with 64 types which is enough to be going on with. Many are represented on PB. @Pulpstar for instance I think is an ENTJ Libertarian Economic Right. I am an ENFJ Libertarian Economic Left.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_compass
    I am indeed in the libertarian right quadrant whenever I do that quiz/test but only about a third of the way along the right and about a pixel below the centre line. For instance I think the NHS is a decent enough system of delivering healthcare and wouldn't scrap it which a true libertarian certainly would.

    ON making decisions and sticking to them, it's a source of occasional disagreement in our relationship when my fiancee changes her mind about something we've planned ! I prefer to stick to plans.
    But you know when to change your mind when it comes to betting.
    Most of the time, I don't always get it right though - like the day GE2017 was announced I doubled down on "No 2017 GE" lol.
    What did you think the statement was going to be about?
    Something royal or NI related. I'd listened to the normally wise Rod Crosby and Mike Smithson both suggest it probably wouldn't happen due to the FTPA, and also attended an event where Sir Pat McCloughlin spoke categorically ruling out an early election xD
    Rod Crosby is a vicious antisemite holocaust denier. He used to post on this forum and was an abhorrent figure.
    Yes, but that doesn't mean he wasn't an astute commentator on electoral matters. You shouldn't ignore what someone says just because they're a shit.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 17,304
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Mr. Barnesian, I quite like the Myers-Briggs approach, although only in a loose, broad way (believing there are precisely sixteen types of people in the world is only mildly better than believing in astrology).

    Hmm. Potential for a PB article on that sort of thing, perhaps.

    If you superimpose the 16 Myers-Briggs personality types onto the four basic political beliefs you end up with 64 types which is enough to be going on with. Many are represented on PB. @Pulpstar for instance I think is an ENTJ Libertarian Economic Right. I am an ENFJ Libertarian Economic Left.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_compass
    I am indeed in the libertarian right quadrant whenever I do that quiz/test but only about a third of the way along the right and about a pixel below the centre line. For instance I think the NHS is a decent enough system of delivering healthcare and wouldn't scrap it which a true libertarian certainly would.

    ON making decisions and sticking to them, it's a source of occasional disagreement in our relationship when my fiancee changes her mind about something we've planned ! I prefer to stick to plans.
    But you know when to change your mind when it comes to betting.
    Most of the time, I don't always get it right though - like the day GE2017 was announced I doubled down on "No 2017 GE" lol.
    What did you think the statement was going to be about?
    Something royal or NI related. I'd listened to the normally wise Rod Crosby and Mike Smithson both suggest it probably wouldn't happen due to the FTPA, and also attended an event where Sir Pat McCloughlin spoke categorically ruling out an early election xD
    Rod Crosby is a vicious antisemite holocaust denier. He used to post on this forum and was an abhorrent figure.
    But he did call the 2015 GE correct from a long way out.
    And 2010 and Trump. Personally I never saw any anti-semitic posts from him either, though I have not gone looking for such posts.
    He said something about a book he had on WW2 that didn't talk about the holocaust. He certainly didn't clarify what he was getting at when he was accused of denying it ever happened.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,385
    Scott_P said:
    Brexit really is starting to resemble Iraq.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 6,626
    Scott_P said:
    On some level you have to admire the sheer brazenness of Nigel F. He is an utter charlatan peddling a toxic cocktail of outright lies and ugly prejudices but doesn't care that we realise that.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 37,032
    JonathanD said:

    Brexit really is starting to resemble Iraq.

    With Nick Timothy starring as Alastair Campbell.
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,758
    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Mr. Barnesian, I quite like the Myers-Briggs approach, although only in a loose, broad way (believing there are precisely sixteen types of people in the world is only mildly better than believing in astrology).

    Hmm. Potential for a PB article on that sort of thing, perhaps.

    If you superimpose the 16 Myers-Briggs personality types onto the four basic political beliefs you end up with 64 types which is enough to be going on with. Many are represented on PB. @Pulpstar for instance I think is an ENTJ Libertarian Economic Right. I am an ENFJ Libertarian Economic Left.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_compass
    I am indeed in the libertarian right quadrant whenever I do that quiz/test but only about a third of the way along the right and about a pixel below the centre line. For instance I think the NHS is a decent enough system of delivering healthcare and wouldn't scrap it which a true libertarian certainly would.

    ON making decisions and sticking to them, it's a source of occasional disagreement in our relationship when my fiancee changes her mind about something we've planned ! I prefer to stick to plans.
    But you know when to change your mind when it comes to betting.
    Most of the time, I don't always get it right though - like the day GE2017 was announced I doubled down on "No 2017 GE" lol.
    What did you think the statement was going to be about?
    Something royal or NI related. I'd listened to the normally wise Rod Crosby and Mike Smithson both suggest it probably wouldn't happen due to the FTPA, and also attended an event where Sir Pat McCloughlin spoke categorically ruling out an early election xD
    Rod Crosby is a vicious antisemite holocaust denier. He used to post on this forum and was an abhorrent figure.
    Friends with JC no doubt.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 6,626
    JonathanD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Brexit really is starting to resemble Iraq.
    With much worse weather.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 19,611
    tlg86 said:



    He said something about a book he had on WW2 that didn't talk about the holocaust. He certainly didn't clarify what he was getting at when he was accused of denying it ever happened.

    He claimed it didn't happen and when confronted by someone who had lost relatives in the Holocaust claimed they'd simply gone into hiding to run away from their family.

    He flagrantly disregarded contemprary documentey evidence to push a completely false narrative.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 23,073
    felix said:

    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Mr. Barnesian, I quite like the Myers-Briggs approach, although only in a loose, broad way (believing there are precisely sixteen types of people in the world is only mildly better than believing in astrology).

    Hmm. Potential for a PB article on that sort of thing, perhaps.

    If you superimpose the 16 Myers-Briggs personality types onto the four basic political beliefs you end up with 64 types which is enough to be going on with. Many are represented on PB. @Pulpstar for instance I think is an ENTJ Libertarian Economic Right. I am an ENFJ Libertarian Economic Left.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_compass
    I am indeed in the libertarian right quadrant whenever I do that quiz/test but only about a third of the way along the right and about a pixel below the centre line. For instance I think the NHS is a decent enough system of delivering healthcare and wouldn't scrap it which a true libertarian certainly would.

    ON making decisions and sticking to them, it's a source of occasional disagreement in our relationship when my fiancee changes her mind about something we've planned ! I prefer to stick to plans.
    But you know when to change your mind when it comes to betting.
    Most of the time, I don't always get it right though - like the day GE2017 was announced I doubled down on "No 2017 GE" lol.
    What did you think the statement was going to be about?
    Something royal or NI related. I'd listened to the normally wise Rod Crosby and Mike Smithson both suggest it probably wouldn't happen due to the FTPA, and also attended an event where Sir Pat McCloughlin spoke categorically ruling out an early election xD
    Rod Crosby is a vicious antisemite holocaust denier. He used to post on this forum and was an abhorrent figure.
    Friends with JC no doubt.
    Hardly! He was an oldfashioned right wing anti-semite, not a leftie one. A good electoral analyst apart from the cryptofacist tendencies though.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 37,032
    Ian Paisley seems to have officially abandoned 'No Deal'.
    https://twitter.com/ianpaisleymp/status/1010104884102918144
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    This is that moment in Lord of the Rings when Elrond notes our list of allies grows thin:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1010085261584281600
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,385

    JonathanD said:

    Brexit really is starting to resemble Iraq.

    With Nick Timothy starring as Alastair Campbell.
    David Davis 'incredibly detailed impact assessment' will be the equivalent of the dodgy dossier.


    Chilcot may even get to recycle his Inquiry but just tippex out a few names and dates.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Mr. Barnesian, I quite like the Myers-Briggs approach, although only in a loose, broad way (believing there are precisely sixteen types of people in the world is only mildly better than believing in astrology).

    Hmm. Potential for a PB article on that sort of thing, perhaps.

    If you superimpose the 16 Myers-Briggs personality types onto the four basic political beliefs you end up with 64 types which is enough to be going on with. Many are represented on PB. @Pulpstar for instance I think is an ENTJ Libertarian Economic Right. I am an ENFJ Libertarian Economic Left.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_compass
    I am indeed in the libertarian right quadrant whenever I do that quiz/test but only about a third of the way along the right and about a pixel below the centre line. For instance I think the NHS is a decent enough system of delivering healthcare and wouldn't scrap it which a true libertarian certainly would.

    ON making decisions and sticking to them, it's a source of occasional disagreement in our relationship when my fiancee changes her mind about something we've planned ! I prefer to stick to plans.
    But you know when to change your mind when it comes to betting.
    Most of the time, I don't always get it right though - like the day GE2017 was announced I doubled down on "No 2017 GE" lol.
    What did you think the statement was going to be about?
    Something royal or NI related. I'd listened to the normally wise Rod Crosby and Mike Smithson both suggest it probably wouldn't happen due to the FTPA, and also attended an event where Sir Pat McCloughlin spoke categorically ruling out an early election xD
    Rod Crosby is a vicious antisemite holocaust denier. He used to post on this forum and was an abhorrent figure.
    Yes, but that doesn't mean he wasn't an astute commentator on electoral matters. You shouldn't ignore what someone says just because they're a shit.
    I didn't make any comment on his electoral prediction skills. I just hate the way some people seem to revere him. He is an ugly holocaust denier and the fact that he made some good bets on the way is completely irrelevant.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,413
    Seen bits of the French circuit. The endless blue paint is giving me flashbacks to the Indian circuit, arguably the worst I've ever seen.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    This Airbus story is the first one I have genuinely felt is toxic for Brexit. Shit just got real etc.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,809
    Mr Meeks has something right, you can't just cancel Brexit or even insist on another referendum without losing all democratic credibility.

    Otherwise, why not re-run GEs if you don't like the result? Governments usually lose popularity in mid-term if Jezza isn't the opposition. Produce an opinion poll and claim the previous GE is therefore invalid. That's the shrill screams of people who remain stuck in childhood.

    At least the HoL don't claim to be democrats.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 37,032
    Anazina said:

    This Airbus story is the first one I have genuinely felt is toxic for Brexit. Shit just got real etc.

    Can Brexit withstand another 9 months of this?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,390
    edited June 2018

    This is that moment in Lord of the Rings when Elrond notes our list of allies grows thin:

    https://twitter.com/MinPres/status/1010085261584281600

    Barnier is playing Davis and May off the park, I'd be happy with him if I was Rutte too - let's see how it all shakes out after the dust has settled next May though.

    Still not sure exactly what he wants with regards to Northern Ireland though.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,612
    Anazina said:

    This Airbus story is the first one I have genuinely felt is toxic for Brexit. Shit just got real etc.

    It is for no deal but as no one wants a no deal, apart from some extreme Brexiteers, a deal will be stuck sooner or later

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 37,032
    Scott_P said:
    Boris Johnson is clearly lined up to be the hate figure when Brexit becomes utterly toxic, but I hope Michael Gove doesn't escape with any credibility.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    CD13 said:

    Mr Meeks has something right, you can't just cancel Brexit or even insist on another referendum without losing all democratic credibility.

    You can if the original vote was illegitimate
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,085
    Scott_P said:
    It is infuriating when one of the most obnoxious politicians in the country points out the obvious. Shame he never thought to mention it before.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    no one wants a no deal

    No deal is better than a bad deal.

    (c) Theresa May
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,085
    Scott_P said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Meeks has something right, you can't just cancel Brexit or even insist on another referendum without losing all democratic credibility.

    You can if the original vote was illegitimate
    Which it wasn't.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Barnesian said:

    I think the referendum question is a bit tricksy; For a lot of voters the answer is really going to depend on what the alternative to taking the deal is. Having asked the voters if they accept the deal, there are a few different options for what happens if they say no:

    1) Car-crash brexit
    2) No brexit
    3) Third referendum to choose between (1) and (2)
    4) One of the above, but the government isn't telling you which, are you feeling lucky?

    I think if you had some clarity that you meant one of those you'd get quite a bit less support.

    To satisfy both sides I think the referendum question would have to include no deal and remain in EU.

    1. Reject deal and leave EU with no deal
    2. Accept deal and leave EU
    3. Reject deal and remain in EU (if they'll have us)

    It could be FPTP or AV.

    Under FPTP, (3) would probably win. Under AV, (1) would drop out first and transfer entirely to (2) so (2) would probably win.

    Is an AV referendum a new concept?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    tlg86 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting random fact picked up on Twitter. Airbus' tax bill covers 20% of EU membership cost.

    Ummm: I very much doubt that Airbus pays £3bn in UK corporation tax.
    Well as it happens there is a report on its contribution to the UK economy that I have just discovered.

    file:///Users/colinsanders/Downloads/Airbus%20Oxford%20Economics%20Report.pdf

    Corporation tax was £1.7bn, so not too far off.

    But the precise details don't matter. The important point is that Brexit will cost us a lot and the sooner leavers start admitting that their preferred course of action is going to make us all poorer the sooner we can start having a grown up debate about what we do about it.


    That €1.7bn is Airbus as a whole, not Airbus UK. Airbus UK looks to have posted a net operating loss in the UK (usually this is done via transfer pricing which transfers the profits into a lower tax centre like Ireland or the Netherlands) and received a tax credit for the year.
    If only there was some kind of international organisation we could join that would have the power to mitigate the effects of transfer pricing.
    So in the space of a few hours you've gone from claiming that Airbus pay tax equivalent to 20% of our EU membership fee to saying that if we were a member of the EU we could stop them dodging tax.
    So I got two valid points for the price of one. The scale of Airbus is such that its contribution to the economy alone covers a big chunk of the admin cost of membership of the EU - so risking driving it out of the UK is a pretty big downside to Brexit. And yes, the EU framework is very useful for preventing big companies playing one government off against another to minimise their social commitments. It's much easier to win arguments when you are right. Nitpicking details is what you have to resort to when your case is weak.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Which it wasn't.

    That is at best debatable, and may yet end up in court
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,085
    Anazina said:

    This Airbus story is the first one I have genuinely felt is toxic for Brexit. Shit just got real etc.

    I suggest you google Airbus and Brexit and review the news stories from the last few years.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Dura_Ace said:

    JonathanD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Brexit really is starting to resemble Iraq.
    .

    I suggest Remain are Shia and Leave are Sunni.

    Makes Nigel Farage Sadam Hussain.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,612

    Scott_P said:
    Boris Johnson is clearly lined up to be the hate figure when Brexit becomes utterly toxic, but I hope Michael Gove doesn't escape with any credibility.
    Boris is yesterday's news, even more so when he is out of the Country when he is duty bound to vote against the third runway.

    MP's talk of NIMBYS but the London MP's are demonstrating that they do not care about the UK's future when, not only should they be supporting the third runway but a fourth one as well rather than their political futures
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,612
    Scott_P said:

    no one wants a no deal

    No deal is better than a bad deal.

    (c) Theresa May
    That is negotiating speak as you well know
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Anazina said:

    This Airbus story is the first one I have genuinely felt is toxic for Brexit. Shit just got real etc.

    I suggest you google Airbus and Brexit and review the news stories from the last few years.
    Yep. I have done so. I remain of the view that it's a toxic story for Brexit.

    You think otherwise, okay.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,809
    edited June 2018
    Mr P,

    You need to begin your own journey to acceptance.

    Stage 1: It didn't happen, it can't happen, we were right.
    Stage 2: It's not fair. I'm always right. I'm clever.
    Stage 3: They must have cheated.
    Stage 4: They can't win, they smell.
    Stage 5: I want my mum.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,866
    rcs1000 said:

    The big news from the Eurozone is this: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3365727-eurozone-agrees-end-greek-bailout

    10 years of no interest payments is - of course - equivalent to about a 30% debt write off... without it actually being called a debt write off,

    I don't read that summary as saying that interest is being waived, merely deferred. Which sounds like more extend and pretend to me.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,085
    Scott_P said:

    Which it wasn't.

    That is at best debatable, and may yet end up in court
    It is at worst debateable, and I doubt it will end up in court because unless there is some sort of collusionary evidence against Leave that is as yet unpublished then there is no case to answer.

    Both sides acted in the same way. They both had supporters who lied. They both worked with other parts of the coalition of interests. Vote Leave even checked as it was going along that what it was doing was correct. You may see conspiracy if you want, but the best defence would be that all reasonable measures were taken, and checking with regulator and acting in the same way as the other campaign would seem to be that.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    That is negotiating speak as you well know

    Unless you believe it, then it's a flat lie.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited June 2018
    Cameron failed to convince the EU that Britain really could vote to leave if the EU did not reform, in particular change freedom of movement. Hence we voted to leave the EU.

    May similarly seems to have failed to convince the EU that we really could leave with no deal. So we could be going down the path of no deal - which could hurt the EU more than the UK, especially in their pocket.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,612
    edited June 2018
    Scott_P said:

    That is negotiating speak as you well know

    Unless you believe it, then it's a flat lie.
    Maybe that will end up in Court as well as the referendum result itself as you seem to imply
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,491
    edited June 2018
    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The big news from the Eurozone is this: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3365727-eurozone-agrees-end-greek-bailout

    10 years of no interest payments is - of course - equivalent to about a 30% debt write off... without it actually being called a debt write off,

    I don't read that summary as saying that interest is being waived, merely deferred. Which sounds like more extend and pretend to me.
    Indeed, 10 year maturity extension with a 10 year deferral of interest payments. Jam today but no write off.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Maybe that will end up in Court as well as the referendum result itself as you seem to imply

    If we crash out with no deal I would not be surprised if Nissan and others thought they might have a case against HMG
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 37,032

    Cameron failed to convince the EU that Britain really could vote to leave if the EU did not reform, in particular change freedom of movement. Hence we voted to leave the EU.

    May similarly seems to have failed to convince the EU that we really could leave with no deal. So we could be going down the path of no deal - which could hurt the EU more than the UK, especially in their pocket.

    I think this is wrong on all counts. You're persisting in the error of thinking "they won't let it happen". Threatening self-harm to get what you want isn't an effective negotiating position.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,085
    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    This Airbus story is the first one I have genuinely felt is toxic for Brexit. Shit just got real etc.

    I suggest you google Airbus and Brexit and review the news stories from the last few years.
    Yep. I have done so. I remain of the view that it's a toxic story for Brexit.

    You think otherwise, okay.
    Okay I live near one of their large sites, and they had already threatened to move. People here were already concerned and I just don't see how today's story changes their previous position.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,390
    edited June 2018
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The big news from the Eurozone is this: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3365727-eurozone-agrees-end-greek-bailout

    10 years of no interest payments is - of course - equivalent to about a 30% debt write off... without it actually being called a debt write off,

    I don't read that summary as saying that interest is being waived, merely deferred. Which sounds like more extend and pretend to me.
    Indeed, 10 year maturity extension with a 10 year deferral of interest payments. Jam today but no write off.
    Deferring interest sounds like jam today to me, unless that interest itself is accumulating interest.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,491
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The big news from the Eurozone is this: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3365727-eurozone-agrees-end-greek-bailout

    10 years of no interest payments is - of course - equivalent to about a 30% debt write off... without it actually being called a debt write off,

    I don't read that summary as saying that interest is being waived, merely deferred. Which sounds like more extend and pretend to me.
    Indeed, 10 year maturity extension with a 10 year deferral of interest payments. Jam today but no write off.
    Deferring interest sounds like jam today to me, unless that interest itself is accumulating interest.
    I doubt it will be a PIK, so it's really just a delay of beginning interest payments for another 10 years.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,102
    Scott_P said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr Meeks has something right, you can't just cancel Brexit or even insist on another referendum without losing all democratic credibility.

    You can if the original vote was illegitimate and is seen to be illegitimate
    I've added the bit you missed. Even if the vote was illegitimate (and Remain have had two years to prove it wasn't), it won't make any practical difference unless there is broad agreement that that illegitimacy was sufficient to merit a second vote. Otherwise you get into the argument of the People versus the politicians. Given that even after all the difficulties of Brexit so far, and that Remain has continued campaigning whereas Leave hasn't, Remain only has a lead within MoE, it's entirely plausible that a second referendum that came about because the first one was widely seen to be tarnished could be won by Leave; an unnecessary referendum forced on the electorate by an unaccepting political class would almost inevitably provoke an 'up yours' response.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,102
    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Mr. Barnesian, I quite like the Myers-Briggs approach, although only in a loose, broad way (believing there are precisely sixteen types of people in the world is only mildly better than believing in astrology).

    Hmm. Potential for a PB article on that sort of thing, perhaps.

    If you superimpose the 16 Myers-Briggs personality types onto the four basic political beliefs you end up with 64 types which is enough to be going on with. Many are represented on PB. @Pulpstar for instance I think is an ENTJ Libertarian Economic Right. I am an ENFJ Libertarian Economic Left.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_compass
    I am indeed in the libertarian right quadrant whenever I do that quiz/test but only about a third of the way along the right and about a pixel below the centre line. For instance I think the NHS is a decent enough system of delivering healthcare and wouldn't scrap it which a true libertarian certainly would.

    ON making decisions and sticking to them, it's a source of occasional disagreement in our relationship when my fiancee changes her mind about something we've planned ! I prefer to stick to plans.
    But you know when to change your mind when it comes to betting.
    Most of the time, I don't always get it right though - like the day GE2017 was announced I doubled down on "No 2017 GE" lol.
    What did you think the statement was going to be about?
    Something royal or NI related. I'd listened to the normally wise Rod Crosby and Mike Smithson both suggest it probably wouldn't happen due to the FTPA, and also attended an event where Sir Pat McCloughlin spoke categorically ruling out an early election xD
    Rod Crosby is a vicious antisemite holocaust denier. He used to post on this forum and was an abhorrent figure.
    Yes, but that doesn't mean he wasn't an astute commentator on electoral matters. You shouldn't ignore what someone says just because they're a shit.
    I didn't make any comment on his electoral prediction skills. I just hate the way some people seem to revere him. He is an ugly holocaust denier and the fact that he made some good bets on the way is completely irrelevant.
    Not on a site dedicated to betting on politics, it's not.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,809
    Lets look logically at the options …

    The government cancels the result, apologises for the problems caused and returns chastened to the fold. Chance … less than 1%

    The Government breaks off negotiations, goes for hard Brexit claiming intransigence by EU negotiators …. 10%

    The Government concedes a new referendum, claiming people have changed their minds/major concessions by EU on FOM etc … 10%

    The Government makes deal/fudge and claims victory … 40%

    Softish Brexit agreed. All claim victory. Ukip resurfaces … 40%


  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,085

    Cameron failed to convince the EU that Britain really could vote to leave if the EU did not reform, in particular change freedom of movement. Hence we voted to leave the EU.

    May similarly seems to have failed to convince the EU that we really could leave with no deal. So we could be going down the path of no deal - which could hurt the EU more than the UK, especially in their pocket.

    I think this is wrong on all counts. You're persisting in the error of thinking "they won't let it happen". Threatening self-harm to get what you want isn't an effective negotiating position.
    I think you fundamentally misunderstand our position as a country. All forms of Brexit are self harm economically in the short term. There is no good story for the Government. So the interest for May et al, is to shape Brexit into something politically acceptable over a longer term if possible for their own supporters, and floating voters. The Conservatives are going to get blamed for Brexit in any case.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Anazina said:

    Anazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Mr. Barnesian, I quite like the Myers-Briggs approach, although only in a loose, broad way (believing there are precisely sixteen types of people in the world is only mildly better than believing in astrology).

    Hmm. Potential for a PB article on that sort of thing, perhaps.

    If you superimpose the 16 Myers-Briggs personality types onto the four basic political beliefs you end up with 64 types which is enough to be going on with. Many are represented on PB. @Pulpstar for instance I think is an ENTJ Libertarian Economic Right. I am an ENFJ Libertarian Economic Left.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_compass
    I am indeed in the libertarian right quadrant whenever I do that quiz/test but only about a third of the way along the right and about a pixel below the centre line. For instance I think the NHS is a decent enough system of delivering healthcare and wouldn't scrap it which a true libertarian certainly would.

    ON making decisions and sticking to them, it's a source of occasional disagreement in our relationship when my fiancee changes her mind about something we've planned ! I prefer to stick to plans.
    But you know when to change your mind when it comes to betting.
    Most of the time, I don't always get it right though - like the day GE2017 was announced I doubled down on "No 2017 GE" lol.
    What did you think the statement was going to be about?
    Something royal or NI related. I'd listened to the normally wise Rod Crosby and Mike Smithson both suggest it probably wouldn't happen due to the FTPA, and also attended an event where Sir Pat McCloughlin spoke categorically ruling out an early election xD
    Rod Crosby is a vicious antisemite holocaust denier. He used to post on this forum and was an abhorrent figure.
    Yes, but that doesn't mean he wasn't an astute commentator on electoral matters. You shouldn't ignore what someone says just because they're a shit.
    I didn't make any comment on his electoral prediction skills. I just hate the way some people seem to revere him. He is an ugly holocaust denier and the fact that he made some good bets on the way is completely irrelevant.
    Not on a site dedicated to betting on politics, it's not.
    If it were a site dedicated to football and he was good at football I would think exactly the same way.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,866
    Roger said:

    A BRILLIANT article. More sensitivity and perception in that one young guy than you'd get reading Guido in a lifetime
    Wow.

    England should still play Rashford though.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 37,032

    Cameron failed to convince the EU that Britain really could vote to leave if the EU did not reform, in particular change freedom of movement. Hence we voted to leave the EU.

    May similarly seems to have failed to convince the EU that we really could leave with no deal. So we could be going down the path of no deal - which could hurt the EU more than the UK, especially in their pocket.

    I think this is wrong on all counts. You're persisting in the error of thinking "they won't let it happen". Threatening self-harm to get what you want isn't an effective negotiating position.
    I think you fundamentally misunderstand our position as a country. All forms of Brexit are self harm economically in the short term. There is no good story for the Government. So the interest for May et al, is to shape Brexit into something politically acceptable over a longer term if possible for their own supporters, and floating voters. The Conservatives are going to get blamed for Brexit in any case.
    All forms of Brexit are politically damaging over the long term. They threaten the very viability of the UK as a state.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,085
    CD13 said:

    Lets look logically at the options …

    The government cancels the result, apologises for the problems caused and returns chastened to the fold. Chance … less than 1%

    The Government breaks off negotiations, goes for hard Brexit claiming intransigence by EU negotiators …. 10%

    The Government concedes a new referendum, claiming people have changed their minds/major concessions by EU on FOM etc … 10%

    The Government makes deal/fudge and claims victory … 40%

    Softish Brexit agreed. All claim victory. Ukip resurfaces … 40%


    I think option 4 is more likely say 60% than option five say 20%. The conservatives will want to do anything they can to avoid UKIP re-emerging. The chance of that happening also diminishes with time as they go around shooting themselves in the foot trying to remain relevant.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 84,000

    Cameron failed to convince the EU that Britain really could vote to leave if the EU did not reform, in particular change freedom of movement. Hence we voted to leave the EU.

    May similarly seems to have failed to convince the EU that we really could leave with no deal. So we could be going down the path of no deal - which could hurt the EU more than the UK, especially in their pocket.

    I think this is wrong on all counts. You're persisting in the error of thinking "they won't let it happen". Threatening self-harm to get what you want isn't an effective negotiating position.
    I think you fundamentally misunderstand our position as a country. All forms of Brexit are self harm economically in the short term. There is no good story for the Government. So the interest for May et al, is to shape Brexit into something politically acceptable over a longer term if possible for their own supporters, and floating voters. The Conservatives are going to get blamed for Brexit in any case.
    All forms of Brexit are politically damaging over the long term. They threaten the very viability of the UK as a state.
    The UK (including NI) survived for decades before it joined the EEC and the SNP lost over a third of their seats after Brexit and the DUP won most seats in both post Brexit elections in NI
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 8,925

    CD13 said:

    Lets look logically at the options …

    The government cancels the result, apologises for the problems caused and returns chastened to the fold. Chance … less than 1%

    The Government breaks off negotiations, goes for hard Brexit claiming intransigence by EU negotiators …. 10%

    The Government concedes a new referendum, claiming people have changed their minds/major concessions by EU on FOM etc … 10%

    The Government makes deal/fudge and claims victory … 40%

    Softish Brexit agreed. All claim victory. Ukip resurfaces … 40%


    I think option 4 is more likely say 60% than option five say 20%. The conservatives will want to do anything they can to avoid UKIP re-emerging. The chance of that happening also diminishes with time as they go around shooting themselves in the foot trying to remain relevant.
    Last night another two UKIP councillor losses to Lanour and LibDem.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,809
    Mr Herdson,

    "An unnecessary referendum forced on the electorate by an unaccepting political class would almost inevitably provoke an 'up yours' response."

    It certainly would, and many politicians understand that. So it won't happen.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 84,000
    edited June 2018
    Scott_P said:
    Says the man who failed to account for almost 200 000 Euros of secret payments and hid much of it in a cupboard
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 84,000
    OllyT said:

    HYUFD said:

    If this isn't a temporary skew and becomes a trend,it seems hard to see come party conference Labour being able to resist calls for a second vote.

    It can when Corbyn's aides now have a majority on the NEC and he needs working class Labour Leave seats for a majority
    I think where you are wrong is that you are talking about Labour leave voters' attitudes 2 years ago. Wasn't it Yougov that reported that 28% of Labour Leave voters already think it was a mistake? If we do head towards a No Deal and Airbus looks like closing down in the UK the pressure on Corbyn to change his tune will become irresistible, It's debatabe how long he can hold the line now when only 19% of Labour voters think Brexit was the right decision.
    The Tories only need to win 8 Labour Leave seats on a swing of less than 1% for a majority in 2022
This discussion has been closed.