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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation Brexit anniversary poll has REMAIN 5% ahead

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  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I think even Alastair Meeks would agree that there is no great love for the EU in this country-many people think we are better off in it, but don't particularly like it

    There's no "even" about it. I'm not a fan of the EU. Never have been. I'm certainly not impressed with how they're handling Brexit.

    And yet, when you compare them with the performance being put on by Leavers and the government, which resembles a collective breakdown, they look stellar.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 41,486
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leavers have had almost 2 years to build a cohesive story of the future and completely failed. Sooner or later events will start to overtake Brexit and opinion will move fast. For the moment the country is in sleep mode. The main impact people will notice is how expensive their summer holiday has become but they will not realise this is part of Brexit

    The failure over forty years is more telling. Maybe it was only ever intended to be a whinge.

    p.s. I think most people are clued up enough to link the fall in the holiday £ to Brexit.
    What about the failure of the EU to convince Britons of the merits of membership over 40 years?

    The exchange rates are no worse this summer than they were in the summer of 2016, and better than during the depths of the Great Recession in 2009.

    It’s a non-issue.
    That it has happened before (for relatively brief periods) doesn't make it a non issue. And the Euro has of course itself been weak; for the US and much of the ROW the current sustained £ weakness is more marked.
    And we have record manufacturing output as a result.

    Now the initial inflationary effects have worked their way out of the system, I think this is largely a non-issue.

    A bigger issue is petrol prices (basically denominated in dollars) where the actions of the US and others have led to significant pump price increases recently.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 41,486

    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    FPTA

    Interesting that airbus would consider moving some production to err... China and the USA, where they’d also be outside the customs union and single market, and face even higher transportation costs.

    It looks to be like frustration on lack of trading clarity to me, and an appeal to both the UK and EU to speed it up, which is fair comment.

    Because the US and China are their biggest present and future customers, who have the industrial base necessary, it's not strange at all.
    But in that scenario, wouldn't they move everything else there as well? Not much point making the wings in China, sending them to Spain for assembly and then flying them back to China.

    I don't think that's the way they meant it to sound - I would have said it was a warning shot to HMG - but it does rather underline my point last night that the EU's brinkmanship carries major risks for them as well even if they don't fully appreciate them yet.
    Airbus already assemble 320s in China:

    http://company.airbus.com/careers/Our-locations/Tianjin.html
    Do we ship wings to China to be assembled there, or is there a second wing assembly plant?
    I thought the wings were carefully manoeuvred out of some North Wales village in the dead of night, inches from the sleeping residents' upstairs windows, and taken to Toulouse for assembly?
    That really is a silly comment. The wings for the A380 are floated down to Mostyn Dock from the huge Airbus factory in Broughton and transported by ship to Toulouse.

    The A320 wings are flown from Broughton to Toulouse in a converted A320 called a 'Beluga'

    It is a shame you try to belittle Wales
    Transported by ship? Plenty of time to do a 3-minute Customs check then, even if such stringencies were always necessary rather than barcode scanning and pre-clearance.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 23,073
    CD13 said:

    In a place not far away, 33 members of a social club decided 17 - 16 to have a day out. They voted to hire a bus, leave the city and go to the coast. Once on the bus, 30 passengers sat back in their seats, content to let the driver find somewhere suitable, but three of them refused to accept the vote.

    You know the sort, every club has them. The local know-it-alls. "You can't leave the city, it's never been done before, there's radiation and wild animals and people get drowned in the sea, you know. My wife's brother's friend once get a nasty suntan. Stop now."

    Even worse, the three try to stop the bus even leaving the depot. "It's for your own good, you imbeciles."

    I think that 17 of the passengers are arguing over whether to go to Skegness or Stratford, while 16 of the others say that they would rather have a dayout in the city. So they pull over in a layby, where some get out deckchairs and picnic, while others take their jackets off and start picking fights. Meanwhile the day is getting shorter, and the passing traffic looks on in puzzled astonishment.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 84,000
    Given Survation's final EU referendum poll gave Remain a 1% lead and their penultimate EU referendum poll gave Remain a 3% lead and both were wrong given Leave won a 5% Survation lead for Remain actually makes it neck and neck on the same margin of error it does not give Remain a clear lead.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

    Survation's EU referendum polls were rather less accurate than their general election polls
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Foxy said:

    CD13 said:

    In a place not far away, 33 members of a social club decided 17 - 16 to have a day out. They voted to hire a bus, leave the city and go to the coast. Once on the bus, 30 passengers sat back in their seats, content to let the driver find somewhere suitable, but three of them refused to accept the vote.

    You know the sort, every club has them. The local know-it-alls. "You can't leave the city, it's never been done before, there's radiation and wild animals and people get drowned in the sea, you know. My wife's brother's friend once get a nasty suntan. Stop now."

    Even worse, the three try to stop the bus even leaving the depot. "It's for your own good, you imbeciles."

    I think that 17 of the passengers are arguing over whether to go to Skegness or Stratford, while 16 of the others say that they would rather have a dayout in the city. So they pull over in a layby, where some get out deckchairs and picnic, while others take their jackets off and start picking fights. Meanwhile the day is getting shorter, and the passing traffic looks on in puzzled astonishment.
    The whole charabanc seems to have a slow puncture.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    DavidL said:

    It's a trade off Scott. A trade off a majority thought was worth making.

    That's not true.

    Brexiteers insisted there was no trade off. £350m a week for the NHS. Many voters believed them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 84,000
    Of course all EU referendum polling is largely irrelevant anyway given the Commons has now voted to Leave the EU, the Single Market and the Customs Union and as long as Corbyn leads the Labour Party and backs May in leaving the single market and opposing a second referendum after the deal
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 84,000
    dr_spyn said:

    Airbus - happy to set up final assembly lines in USA and China.

    http://www.airbus.com/aircraft/how-is-an-aircraft-built/final-assembly-and-tests.html

    I hope they appreciate Trump's tariffs putting up those supply line costs then
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,413
    Mr. Stopper, I said ages ago that the EU could help create the conditions for a second referendum if it put a little red meat on the table (stay in and we'll increase the rebate, for example). Instead, the moves have been in the other direction (cf Galileo dickishness).

    I want us to be out of the customs union. That was and is, for me, *the* red line. Quite happy for co-operation in most other areas, contingent on detail.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 84,000
    Nigelb said:

    Is Ireland likely to reunite within a decade ?
    https://www.politico.eu/article/united-ireland-after-brexit-reunification-vote/

    It’s possible to see it as a win/win if the North were to see the economic growth the South has enjoyed - and rUK freed of the subsidy...

    At most only half of NI, the Catholic SF half would reunite with the Republic, as I made clear earlier this week the Protestant DUP counties like Antrim and Down would declare UDI before they were forced into the Republic against their will
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 84,000

    IanB2 said:

    Leavers have had almost 2 years to build a cohesive story of the future and completely failed. Sooner or later events will start to overtake Brexit and opinion will move fast. For the moment the country is in sleep mode. The main impact people will notice is how expensive their summer holiday has become but they will not realise this is part of Brexit

    The failure over forty years is more telling. Maybe it was only ever intended to be a whinge.

    p.s. I think most people are clued up enough to link the fall in the holiday £ to Brexit.
    What about the failure of the EU to convince Britons of the merits of membership over 40 years?
    It’s not really the EU’s job to do that. It’s more the job of the people promoting party manifestos over the years that proudly proclaimed how they were committed to EU membership. The failure to convince is a failure of domestic politics.
    Exactly so. Every other country in the EU has clear poll leads for remaining in the EU.
    Though almost every other country in the EU has far bigger far right parties than we now do as the EU is failing to tackle their immigration problem, which was one of the main reasons for Brexit
  • stodgestodge Posts: 8,367
    HYUFD said:

    Of course all EU referendum polling is largely irrelevant anyway given the Commons has now voted to Leave the EU, the Single Market and the Customs Union and as long as Corbyn leads the Labour Party and backs May in leaving the single market and opposing a second referendum after the deal

    Two points:

    1) Nothing lasts forever. At some point the dynamic will change and the tectonic plates re-assemble and things may look very different.

    2) Commiserations on Pitsea SE - I once worked for a candidate who lost by 10 votes so to lose by 8 must be incredibly frustrating and heartbreaking. You always think "if only" whereas if you lose a Council seat by a thousand it's a lot easier.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 35,372
    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    We are negotiating this in the worst possible circumstances: divided as a country, with a minority government sometimes living from vote to vote and above all far too little focus on what we actually want. Most of the deal will thankfully write itself but it will not be as good for UK plc as it could have been.

    And not as good as we have now.

    That's the crux of it.

    Brexit is an exercise in self harm, and the Government are doing a bad job of limiting the damage, but even the best possible outcome with the best Government team would still be worse than we have now.
    It's a trade off Scott. A trade off a majority thought was worth making. And, with respect, pointing to every economic development as "proof" that they were wrong about that really isn't going to persuade anybody. But we obviously want to get the best terms that we can.

    Trade off?

    We were told time and again there were no downsides to Brexit. How could there be when we hold all the cards?

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,866
    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    It's a trade off Scott. A trade off a majority thought was worth making.

    That's not true.

    Brexiteers insisted there was no trade off. £350m a week for the NHS. Many voters believed them.
    And many that voted remain were convinced that we would have a recession starting the day after the vote. Which turned out to be untrue. And actually the figure the government has just announced is an extra £394m a week for the NHS.

    Whether in the medium term we do better out of the EU than we would have done in it is going to be essentially unknowable but what is clear is that our performance is down to us and the domestic policy decisions that our government takes.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,451
    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    It's a trade off Scott. A trade off a majority thought was worth making.

    That's not true.

    Brexiteers insisted there was no trade off. £350m a week for the NHS. Many voters believed them.
    oh really make up your mind

    one day its the Russians, next its the bus, day after that its were all racists

    you lost

    and you lost because you were selling a shit product with a shit campaign to people you know nothing about



  • Mr. Stopper, I said ages ago that the EU could help create the conditions for a second referendum if it put a little red meat on the table (stay in and we'll increase the rebate, for example). Instead, the moves have been in the other direction (cf Galileo dickishness).

    I want us to be out of the customs union. That was and is, for me, *the* red line. Quite happy for co-operation in most other areas, contingent on detail.

    So how many new trade deals do you expect us to sign after we Leave and with who?

    Do you expect our trade to go up after Brexit?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,790
    Scott_P said:
    For me the key bits were this:
    "Until we know and understand the new EU/UK relationship, Airbus should carefully monitor any new investments in the UK and should refrain from extending its UK suppliers/partners base.

    Customs Union and a harmonized regulatory framework with the EU on aviation are the two major issues for Airbus that will determine its future strategy in UK, and they need to be addressed urgently."

    May be wrong, but I think Labour can offer both, no problem, but the Tories have ruled out the first, and will find the second tricky with their ECJ red line.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 41,486

    Mr. Stopper, I said ages ago that the EU could help create the conditions for a second referendum if it put a little red meat on the table (stay in and we'll increase the rebate, for example). Instead, the moves have been in the other direction (cf Galileo dickishness).

    I want us to be out of the customs union. That was and is, for me, *the* red line. Quite happy for co-operation in most other areas, contingent on detail.

    It depends how the question is phrased.

    If you ask if you want the UK to have control of its own trade policy you get a resounding, “yes”.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,451

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    We are negotiating this in the worst possible circumstances: divided as a country, with a minority government sometimes living from vote to vote and above all far too little focus on what we actually want. Most of the deal will thankfully write itself but it will not be as good for UK plc as it could have been.

    And not as good as we have now.

    That's the crux of it.

    Brexit is an exercise in self harm, and the Government are doing a bad job of limiting the damage, but even the best possible outcome with the best Government team would still be worse than we have now.
    It's a trade off Scott. A trade off a majority thought was worth making. And, with respect, pointing to every economic development as "proof" that they were wrong about that really isn't going to persuade anybody. But we obviously want to get the best terms that we can.

    Trade off?

    We were told time and again there were no downsides to Brexit. How could there be when we hold all the cards?

    well if you were stupid enough to believe everything you were told bigger fool you
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 84,000
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Of course all EU referendum polling is largely irrelevant anyway given the Commons has now voted to Leave the EU, the Single Market and the Customs Union and as long as Corbyn leads the Labour Party and backs May in leaving the single market and opposing a second referendum after the deal

    Two points:

    1) Nothing lasts forever. At some point the dynamic will change and the tectonic plates re-assemble and things may look very different.

    2) Commiserations on Pitsea SE - I once worked for a candidate who lost by 10 votes so to lose by 8 must be incredibly frustrating and heartbreaking. You always think "if only" whereas if you lose a Council seat by a thousand it's a lot easier.
    1) In a decade maybe but not while we have a pro Brexit Tory government backed by the pro Brexit and anti EEA Corbyn leadimg Labour

    2) Indeed it was the closest election I have ever personally helped in
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,866

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    We are negotiating this in the worst possible circumstances: divided as a country, with a minority government sometimes living from vote to vote and above all far too little focus on what we actually want. Most of the deal will thankfully write itself but it will not be as good for UK plc as it could have been.

    And not as good as we have now.

    That's the crux of it.

    Brexit is an exercise in self harm, and the Government are doing a bad job of limiting the damage, but even the best possible outcome with the best Government team would still be worse than we have now.
    It's a trade off Scott. A trade off a majority thought was worth making. And, with respect, pointing to every economic development as "proof" that they were wrong about that really isn't going to persuade anybody. But we obviously want to get the best terms that we can.

    Trade off?

    We were told time and again there were no downsides to Brexit. How could there be when we hold all the cards?

    well if you were stupid enough to believe everything you were told bigger fool you
    Ah but Joff didn't you see. He is much smarter than the majority of the population. He chose to believe another pack of lies instead.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,883

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    We are negotiating this in the worst possible circumstances: divided as a country, with a minority government sometimes living from vote to vote and above all far too little focus on what we actually want. Most of the deal will thankfully write itself but it will not be as good for UK plc as it could have been.

    And not as good as we have now.

    That's the crux of it.

    Brexit is an exercise in self harm, and the Government are doing a bad job of limiting the damage, but even the best possible outcome with the best Government team would still be worse than we have now.
    It's a trade off Scott. A trade off a majority thought was worth making. And, with respect, pointing to every economic development as "proof" that they were wrong about that really isn't going to persuade anybody. But we obviously want to get the best terms that we can.

    Trade off?

    We were told time and again there were no downsides to Brexit. How could there be when we hold all the cards?

    By the government?

    By the Prime Minister?

    By the CoE?

    By President Obama?

    You only listened to half the campaign? The half that was overspent by the Remain side?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    you lost

    We all lost.

    You just haven't figured it out yet.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,754
    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    It's a trade off Scott. A trade off a majority thought was worth making.

    That's not true.

    Brexiteers insisted there was no trade off. £350m a week for the NHS. Many voters believed them.
    And many that voted remain were convinced that we would have a recession starting the day after the vote. Which turned out to be untrue. And actually the figure the government has just announced is an extra £394m a week for the NHS.

    Whether in the medium term we do better out of the EU than we would have done in it is going to be essentially unknowable but what is clear is that our performance is down to us and the domestic policy decisions that our government takes.
    Whenever anyone uses the word "unknowable", I am reminded of "unforeseeable" in this movie...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQrqMkCuHqA
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 6,872
    Foxy said:

    CD13 said:

    In a place not far away, 33 members of a social club decided 17 - 16 to have a day out. They voted to hire a bus, leave the city and go to the coast. Once on the bus, 30 passengers sat back in their seats, content to let the driver find somewhere suitable, but three of them refused to accept the vote.

    You know the sort, every club has them. The local know-it-alls. "You can't leave the city, it's never been done before, there's radiation and wild animals and people get drowned in the sea, you know. My wife's brother's friend once get a nasty suntan. Stop now."

    Even worse, the three try to stop the bus even leaving the depot. "It's for your own good, you imbeciles."

    I think that 17 of the passengers are arguing over whether to go to Skegness or Stratford, while 16 of the others say that they would rather have a dayout in the city. So they pull over in a layby, where some get out deckchairs and picnic, while others take their jackets off and start picking fights. Meanwhile the day is getting shorter, and the passing traffic looks on in puzzled astonishment.
    16 of them didn't want to go on the bus trip in the first place and were forced on the bus against their will. Now it has started to rain, 3 of the original 17 have changed their mind and the rest can't make up they mind where that want to go. "Let's have another vote on this" "You can't do that. It would be in undemocratic "
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,451
    Scott_P said:

    you lost

    We all lost.

    You just haven't figured it out yet.
    you simply show yet again you don't understand motivations


  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,754
    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    CD13 said:

    In a place not far away, 33 members of a social club decided 17 - 16 to have a day out. They voted to hire a bus, leave the city and go to the coast. Once on the bus, 30 passengers sat back in their seats, content to let the driver find somewhere suitable, but three of them refused to accept the vote.

    You know the sort, every club has them. The local know-it-alls. "You can't leave the city, it's never been done before, there's radiation and wild animals and people get drowned in the sea, you know. My wife's brother's friend once get a nasty suntan. Stop now."

    Even worse, the three try to stop the bus even leaving the depot. "It's for your own good, you imbeciles."

    I think that 17 of the passengers are arguing over whether to go to Skegness or Stratford, while 16 of the others say that they would rather have a dayout in the city. So they pull over in a layby, where some get out deckchairs and picnic, while others take their jackets off and start picking fights. Meanwhile the day is getting shorter, and the passing traffic looks on in puzzled astonishment.
    16 of them didn't want to go on the bus trip in the first place and were forced on the bus against their will. Now it has started to rain, 3 of the original 17 have changed their mind and the rest can't make up they mind where that want to go. "Let's have another vote on this" "You can't do that. It would be in undemocratic "
    There were 14 people on a bus, and they were all required to come up with an analogy for 14 people getting on a bus...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,413
    Mr. Eagles, in the short term I'd expect a decline. In the long term, provided Fox isn't the standard (ahem) for our negotiators, I'd expect an improvement.

    Big business likes the EU because it can lobby more effectively and has no problems coping with the red tape. The EU's demented approach to some business issues can be crippling for small and micro-businesses, though.

    We've had the VAT insanity (ostensibly to get tax out of Amazon but which ended up forcing people onto marketplace sites... like Amazon), now there's the antiquities delinquency (which Mr. Mortimer has talked about), and the looming lunacy of articles 11 and 13 regarding a link tax and applying what sounds like a Youtube algorithm of PC bullshit to the whole internet.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,135
    edited June 2018
    Regret by the Leavers and even Melania's having a rethink. The good guys are on the move.....

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/video/2018/jun/22/melania-trump-wears-i-dont-care-jacket-en-route-to-child-detention-centre-video
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,754
    The big news from the Eurozone is this: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3365727-eurozone-agrees-end-greek-bailout

    10 years of no interest payments is - of course - equivalent to about a 30% debt write off... without it actually being called a debt write off,
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 19,761
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leavers have had almost 2 years to build a cohesive story of the future and completely failed. Sooner or later events will start to overtake Brexit and opinion will move fast. For the moment the country is in sleep mode. The main impact people will notice is how expensive their summer holiday has become but they will not realise this is part of Brexit

    The failure over forty years is more telling. Maybe it was only ever intended to be a whinge.

    p.s. I think most people are clued up enough to link the fall in the holiday £ to Brexit.
    What about the failure of the EU to convince Britons of the merits of membership over 40 years?

    The exchange rates are no worse this summer than they were in the summer of 2016, and better than during the depths of the Great Recession in 2009.

    It’s a non-issue.
    That it has happened before (for relatively brief periods) doesn't make it a non issue. And the Euro has of course itself been weak; for the US and much of the ROW the current sustained £ weakness is more marked.
    A country which has been running a trade deficit every month from February 1998 onwards together with a tourism deficit of even longer duration does not suffer from an excessively low exchange rate.

    If people want more spending money for their foreign holidays they need to either create more wealth or increase their savings rate.

    This has nothing to do with Brexit or the EU in general.
  • Mr. Eagles, in the short term I'd expect a decline. In the long term, provided Fox isn't the standard (ahem) for our negotiators, I'd expect an improvement.

    Big business likes the EU because it can lobby more effectively and has no problems coping with the red tape. The EU's demented approach to some business issues can be crippling for small and micro-businesses, though.

    We've had the VAT insanity (ostensibly to get tax out of Amazon but which ended up forcing people onto marketplace sites... like Amazon), now there's the antiquities delinquency (which Mr. Mortimer has talked about), and the looming lunacy of articles 11 and 13 regarding a link tax and applying what sounds like a Youtube algorithm of PC bullshit to the whole internet.

    So you want to make the country poorer and that’s your red line.

    You really should join Corbyn’s Labour Party.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,866
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    It's a trade off Scott. A trade off a majority thought was worth making.

    That's not true.

    Brexiteers insisted there was no trade off. £350m a week for the NHS. Many voters believed them.
    And many that voted remain were convinced that we would have a recession starting the day after the vote. Which turned out to be untrue. And actually the figure the government has just announced is an extra £394m a week for the NHS.

    Whether in the medium term we do better out of the EU than we would have done in it is going to be essentially unknowable but what is clear is that our performance is down to us and the domestic policy decisions that our government takes.
    Whenever anyone uses the word "unknowable", I am reminded of "unforeseeable" in this movie...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQrqMkCuHqA
    "When you've been to war you never want to go again unless you absolutely have to. It's like France."

    Superb
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    you simply show yet again you don't understand motivations

    The motivation is not in question.

    The result is we are diminished as a country, however hard you wish.

    Economically, politically, militarily, communally.

    Why we did it doesn't matter. We are all poorer as a result
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,754

    Mr. Eagles, in the short term I'd expect a decline. In the long term, provided Fox isn't the standard (ahem) for our negotiators, I'd expect an improvement.

    Big business likes the EU because it can lobby more effectively and has no problems coping with the red tape. The EU's demented approach to some business issues can be crippling for small and micro-businesses, though.

    We've had the VAT insanity (ostensibly to get tax out of Amazon but which ended up forcing people onto marketplace sites... like Amazon), now there's the antiquities delinquency (which Mr. Mortimer has talked about), and the looming lunacy of articles 11 and 13 regarding a link tax and applying what sounds like a Youtube algorithm of PC bullshit to the whole internet.

    It's a classic example of lack of democratic accountability: often the intentions - as with VAT - were good, but there was the lack of a feedback loop where voters and interested smaller parties could let people know. And it's hard to see how the current EU can square that circle.

    Now, I need to go to bed :)
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 19,761
    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    CD13 said:

    In a place not far away, 33 members of a social club decided 17 - 16 to have a day out. They voted to hire a bus, leave the city and go to the coast. Once on the bus, 30 passengers sat back in their seats, content to let the driver find somewhere suitable, but three of them refused to accept the vote.

    You know the sort, every club has them. The local know-it-alls. "You can't leave the city, it's never been done before, there's radiation and wild animals and people get drowned in the sea, you know. My wife's brother's friend once get a nasty suntan. Stop now."

    Even worse, the three try to stop the bus even leaving the depot. "It's for your own good, you imbeciles."

    I think that 17 of the passengers are arguing over whether to go to Skegness or Stratford, while 16 of the others say that they would rather have a dayout in the city. So they pull over in a layby, where some get out deckchairs and picnic, while others take their jackets off and start picking fights. Meanwhile the day is getting shorter, and the passing traffic looks on in puzzled astonishment.
    16 of them didn't want to go on the bus trip in the first place and were forced on the bus against their will. Now it has started to rain, 3 of the original 17 have changed their mind and the rest can't make up they mind where that want to go. "Let's have another vote on this" "You can't do that. It would be in undemocratic "
    Everyone was already on the bus and it was heading to an uncertain place called EverCloserUnion.

    Three people were happy about this and a few others pretended it wasn't happening.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 30,508
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is Ireland likely to reunite within a decade ?
    https://www.politico.eu/article/united-ireland-after-brexit-reunification-vote/

    It’s possible to see it as a win/win if the North were to see the economic growth the South has enjoyed - and rUK freed of the subsidy...

    At most only half of NI, the Catholic SF half would reunite with the Republic, as I made clear earlier this week the Protestant DUP counties like Antrim and Down would declare UDI before they were forced into the Republic against their will
    "As I made clear...'
    Glad you sorted that out...
  • stodgestodge Posts: 8,367
    HYUFD said:


    1) In a decade maybe but not while we have a pro Brexit Tory government backed by the pro Brexit and anti EEA Corbyn leadimg Labour

    2) Indeed it was the closest election I have ever personally helped in

    In response to your 1) Corbyn is responsible for the current political glacis and I suspect his departure will begin to unfreeze the icebergs a bit. I can't speak for the Conservative Party (you are a much better authority) but nothing that has happened has ultimately resolved the internal tensions within both major parties.

    It seems more likely Labour will, post-Corbyn, move to a more sympathetic line with regard to the EU but there are any number of variables.

    For example, if the global economy moves into a downturn at the point we leave the EU there will be those who will put two and two together, come up with seven and argue the downturn is the direct result of us leaving the EU and will join the side of those wanting to rejoin.

    Conversely, if the global economic climate is favourable when we leave, Brexit will be hailed a huge success and the voices of those seeking to return or re-join will be muted.

    There's also the thorny question of the terms on which any future UK Government would have to re-join the EU - no Government can or presumably could accept the Euro, Schengen and full Freedom of Movement but could something more nuanced be negotiated - would the EU be willing ?

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,413
    Mr. Eagles, if the EU offered us a rebate of £25bn a year in return for governing our taxation policy, would you vote to make the country richer?

    Short term pain for long term gain is sensible. It's why people exercise. It's why people save money even though they could spend it on new clothes and visiting the theatre. It's why determining our own trade policy, with British interests at the heart of it, is better than having our trade dictated by a foreign political organisation we've just voted to leave and which need take no account of the British interest (and would have no qualms about causing harm to our economy).
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,451
    rcs1000 said:

    The big news from the Eurozone is this: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3365727-eurozone-agrees-end-greek-bailout

    10 years of no interest payments is - of course - equivalent to about a 30% debt write off... without it actually being called a debt write off,

    yes.

    and although Id say about time too, the fact remains Greece still needs a debt write off.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,754
    stodge said:

    For example, if the global economy moves into a downturn at the point we leave the EU there will be those who will put two and two together, come up with seven and argue the downturn is the direct result of us leaving the EU and will join the side of those wanting to rejoin.

    Conversely, if the global economic climate is favourable when we leave, Brexit will be hailed a huge success and the voices of those seeking to return or re-join will be muted.

    Yes. Humans seek simple explanations for complex phenomena, and are all guilty of believing in the "sole actor fallacy".

    Except me, obviously.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,883
    Scott_P said:

    you simply show yet again you don't understand motivations

    The motivation is not in question.
    It is if you are seeking to persuade people.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,754

    rcs1000 said:

    The big news from the Eurozone is this: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3365727-eurozone-agrees-end-greek-bailout

    10 years of no interest payments is - of course - equivalent to about a 30% debt write off... without it actually being called a debt write off,

    yes.

    and although Id say about time too, the fact remains Greece still needs a debt write off.

    It is a debt write off, just a hidden one. Imagine you had debt of $100, and were paying $3 interest a year on it.

    Now, if that was cut to $80, and you were now paying $2.40 a year, that would be a 20% debt write off, and that would be obvious.

    Imagine instead that you weren't required to make 10 years if interest payments of $3, you would be essentially as well off as a 20% cut in the principle and interest payments.

    If Greece used the money they were going to pay in interest every year to pay down their debt, then they would cut their debt loading by somewhere between 20 and 30% (I don't know the exact interest rates on Greek debt).
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,451
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The big news from the Eurozone is this: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3365727-eurozone-agrees-end-greek-bailout

    10 years of no interest payments is - of course - equivalent to about a 30% debt write off... without it actually being called a debt write off,

    yes.

    and although Id say about time too, the fact remains Greece still needs a debt write off.

    It is a debt write off, just a hidden one. Imagine you had debt of $100, and were paying $3 interest a year on it.

    Now, if that was cut to $80, and you were now paying $2.40 a year, that would be a 20% debt write off, and that would be obvious.

    Imagine instead that you weren't required to make 10 years if interest payments of $3, you would be essentially as well off as a 20% cut in the principle and interest payments.

    If Greece used the money they were going to pay in interest every year to pay down their debt, then they would cut their debt loading by somewhere between 20 and 30% (I don't know the exact interest rates on Greek debt).
    rcs

    I do understand how they've hidden it, but in my view they needed both. The Germans have hammered Greece for 10 years and need to accept they were complicit in letting Greece in to a system they couldn't manage.

    Every time I see Merkel lecturing the rest of the world about compassion and solidarity I just look at Greece and say yeah right.
  • CD13 said:

    In a place not far away, 33 members of a social club decided 17 - 16 to have a day out. They voted to hire a bus, leave the city and go to the coast. Once on the bus, 30 passengers sat back in their seats, content to let the driver find somewhere suitable, but three of them refused to accept the vote.

    You know the sort, every club has them. The local know-it-alls. "You can't leave the city, it's never been done before, there's radiation and wild animals and people get drowned in the sea, you know. My wife's brother's friend once get a nasty suntan. Stop now."

    Even worse, the three try to stop the bus even leaving the depot. "It's for your own good, you imbeciles."

    Ehm, did this social club not plan to leave their home city and never return? With no defined destination? Some social club!
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,211

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    We are negotiating this in the worst possible circumstances: divided as a country, with a minority government sometimes living from vote to vote and above all far too little focus on what we actually want. Most of the deal will thankfully write itself but it will not be as good for UK plc as it could have been.

    And not as good as we have now.

    That's the crux of it.

    Brexit is an exercise in self harm, and the Government are doing a bad job of limiting the damage, but even the best possible outcome with the best Government team would still be worse than we have now.
    It's a trade off Scott. A trade off a majority thought was worth making. And, with respect, pointing to every economic development as "proof" that they were wrong about that really isn't going to persuade anybody. But we obviously want to get the best terms that we can.

    Trade off?

    We were told time and again there were no downsides to Brexit. How could there be when we hold all the cards?

    Think that's exactly right. They say that now but most weren't saying it during the referendum campaign. It was a very different tune then, any possible negatives were airily dismissed as Project Fear.

    Basically a referendum was won by a small margin on the basis that there weren't any significant downsides - in fact I believe the polling at the time showed that 57% of leavers believed they were actually going to be better off after Brexit!

    Now we know there are major downsides, nobody is seriously claiming we are going to be better off until sometime long distant tomorrow that may never even come but we still have to proceed as it's "the will of the people". And people wonder why Remainers are still p*ssed off and haven't united behind Brexit. Dream on
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 23,073
    Wow. What a great piece of writing. The diving show pony is growing on me a little :)
  • That's a good read and he comes across really well. He's still a diving little cheat, though!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 53,761
    rcs1000 said:

    The big news from the Eurozone is this: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3365727-eurozone-agrees-end-greek-bailout

    10 years of no interest payments is - of course - equivalent to about a 30% debt write off... without it actually being called a debt write off,

    Is it 10 years of no interest payments? The article refers to interest deferral not zero interest. That seems to me the difference between a write off and simply kicking the can a decade down the road.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    CD13 said:

    In a place not far away, 33 members of a social club decided 17 - 16 to have a day out. They voted to hire a bus, leave the city and go to the coast. Once on the bus, 30 passengers sat back in their seats, content to let the driver find somewhere suitable, but three of them refused to accept the vote.

    You know the sort, every club has them. The local know-it-alls. "You can't leave the city, it's never been done before, there's radiation and wild animals and people get drowned in the sea, you know. My wife's brother's friend once get a nasty suntan. Stop now."

    Even worse, the three try to stop the bus even leaving the depot. "It's for your own good, you imbeciles."

    I think that 17 of the passengers are arguing over whether to go to Skegness or Stratford, while 16 of the others say that they would rather have a dayout in the city. So they pull over in a layby, where some get out deckchairs and picnic, while others take their jackets off and start picking fights. Meanwhile the day is getting shorter, and the passing traffic looks on in puzzled astonishment.
    16 of them didn't want to go on the bus trip in the first place and were forced on the bus against their will. Now it has started to rain, 3 of the original 17 have changed their mind and the rest can't make up they mind where that want to go. "Let's have another vote on this" "You can't do that. It would be in undemocratic "
    Everyone was already on the bus and it was heading to an uncertain place called EverCloserUnion.

    Three people were happy about this and a few others pretended it wasn't happening.
    Is the driver from Luxembourg, (might need breathalysing), and on the wrong side of the road?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 23,073
    OllyT said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    We are negotiating this in the worst possible circumstances: divided as a country, with a minority government sometimes living from vote to vote and above all far too little focus on what we actually want. Most of the deal will thankfully write itself but it will not be as good for UK plc as it could have been.

    And not as good as we have now.

    That's the crux of it.

    Brexit is an exercise in self harm, and the Government are doing a bad job of limiting the damage, but even the best possible outcome with the best Government team would still be worse than we have now.
    It's a trade off Scott. A trade off a majority thought was worth making. And, with respect, pointing to every economic development as "proof" that they were wrong about that really isn't going to persuade anybody. But we obviously want to get the best terms that we can.

    Trade off?

    We were told time and again there were no downsides to Brexit. How could there be when we hold all the cards?

    Think that's exactly right. They say that now but most weren't saying it during the referendum campaign. It was a very different tune then, any possible negatives were airily dismissed as Project Fear.

    Basically a referendum was won by a small margin on the basis that there weren't any significant downsides - in fact I believe the polling at the time showed that 57% of leavers believed they were actually going to be better off after Brexit!

    Now we know there are major downsides, nobody is seriously claiming we are going to be better off until sometime long distant tomorrow that may never even come but we still have to proceed as it's "the will of the people". And people wonder why Remainers are still p*ssed off and haven't united behind Brexit. Dream on
    I recall a poll pre Brexit, that the price of £50 for Brexit to the voter personally would have flipped the vote.

    But the vote wasn't about economics, that is where Remain went wrong in its campaign, it was about Britain's place in the world, and self image. Largely that is where the problems still lie. It is whybeing a vassal state is so toxic.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    If this isn't a temporary skew and becomes a trend,it seems hard to see come party conference Labour being able to resist calls for a second vote.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 6,872

    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    CD13 said:

    In a place not far away, 33 members of a social club decided 17 - 16 to have a day out. They voted to hire a bus, leave the city and go to the coast. Once on the bus, 30 passengers sat back in their seats, content to let the driver find somewhere suitable, but three of them refused to accept the vote.

    You know the sort, every club has them. The local know-it-alls. "You can't leave the city, it's never been done before, there's radiation and wild animals and people get drowned in the sea, you know. My wife's brother's friend once get a nasty suntan. Stop now."

    Even worse, the three try to stop the bus even leaving the depot. "It's for your own good, you imbeciles."

    I think that 17 of the passengers are arguing over whether to go to Skegness or Stratford, while 16 of the others say that they would rather have a dayout in the city. So they pull over in a layby, where some get out deckchairs and picnic, while others take their jackets off and start picking fights. Meanwhile the day is getting shorter, and the passing traffic looks on in puzzled astonishment.
    16 of them didn't want to go on the bus trip in the first place and were forced on the bus against their will. Now it has started to rain, 3 of the original 17 have changed their mind and the rest can't make up they mind where that want to go. "Let's have another vote on this" "You can't do that. It would be in undemocratic "
    Everyone was already on the bus and it was heading to an uncertain place called EverCloserUnion.

    Three people were happy about this and a few others pretended it wasn't happening.
    The driver of the bus had already got a concession that it wasn't going to EverCloserUnion.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 47,883
    welshowl said:

    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    CD13 said:

    In a place not far away, 33 members of a social club decided 17 - 16 to have a day out. They voted to hire a bus, leave the city and go to the coast. Once on the bus, 30 passengers sat back in their seats, content to let the driver find somewhere suitable, but three of them refused to accept the vote.

    You know the sort, every club has them. The local know-it-alls. "You can't leave the city, it's never been done before, there's radiation and wild animals and people get drowned in the sea, you know. My wife's brother's friend once get a nasty suntan. Stop now."

    Even worse, the three try to stop the bus even leaving the depot. "It's for your own good, you imbeciles."

    I think that 17 of the passengers are arguing over whether to go to Skegness or Stratford, while 16 of the others say that they would rather have a dayout in the city. So they pull over in a layby, where some get out deckchairs and picnic, while others take their jackets off and start picking fights. Meanwhile the day is getting shorter, and the passing traffic looks on in puzzled astonishment.
    16 of them didn't want to go on the bus trip in the first place and were forced on the bus against their will. Now it has started to rain, 3 of the original 17 have changed their mind and the rest can't make up they mind where that want to go. "Let's have another vote on this" "You can't do that. It would be in undemocratic "
    Everyone was already on the bus and it was heading to an uncertain place called EverCloserUnion.

    Three people were happy about this and a few others pretended it wasn't happening.
    Is the driver from Luxembourg, (might need breathalysing), and on the wrong side of the road?
    And the backseat driver from Germany, unqualified for the position and only got the job through a stitch up?
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    Foxy said:

    OllyT said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    We are negotiating this in the worst possible circumstances: divided as a country, with a minority government sometimes living from vote to vote and above all far too little focus on what we actually want. Most of the deal will thankfully write itself but it will not be as good for UK plc as it could have been.

    And not as good as we have now.

    That's the crux of it.

    Brexit is an exercise in self harm, and the Government are doing a bad job of limiting the damage, but even the best possible outcome with the best Government team would still be worse than we have now.
    It's a trade off Scott. A trade off a majority thought was worth making. And, with respect, pointing to every economic development as "proof" that they were wrong about that really isn't going to persuade anybody. But we obviously want to get the best terms that we can.

    Trade off?

    We were told time and again there were no downsides to Brexit. How could there be when we hold all the cards?

    Think that's exactly right. They say that now but most weren't saying it during the referendum campaign. It was a very different tune then, any possible negatives were airily dismissed as Project Fear.

    Basically a referendum was won by a small margin on the basis that there weren't any significant downsides - in fact I believe the polling at the time showed that 57% of leavers believed they were actually going to be better off after Brexit!

    Now we know there are major downsides, nobody is seriously claiming we are going to be better off until sometime long distant tomorrow that may never even come but we still have to proceed as it's "the will of the people". And people wonder why Remainers are still p*ssed off and haven't united behind Brexit. Dream on
    I recall a poll pre Brexit, that the price of £50 for Brexit to the voter personally would have flipped the vote.

    But the vote wasn't about economics, that is where Remain went wrong in its campaign, it was about Britain's place in the world, and self image. Largely that is where the problems still lie. It is whybeing a vassal state is so toxic.
    Dead right. It was why it was such a colossal mistake by politicians of all stripes not to check back with the voters along the way of Maastricht, Nice, Amsterdam, Lisbon etc ( as the Irish wisely had to), and not just blithely assume “we didn’t care”. We would never have arrived at 23.6.16. If we’d been asked regularly if we agreed ( even once might’ve helped). But no, on they sailed regardless.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 53,761
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    CD13 said:

    In a place not far away, 33 members of a social club decided 17 - 16 to have a day out. They voted to hire a bus, leave the city and go to the coast. Once on the bus, 30 passengers sat back in their seats, content to let the driver find somewhere suitable, but three of them refused to accept the vote.

    You know the sort, every club has them. The local know-it-alls. "You can't leave the city, it's never been done before, there's radiation and wild animals and people get drowned in the sea, you know. My wife's brother's friend once get a nasty suntan. Stop now."

    Even worse, the three try to stop the bus even leaving the depot. "It's for your own good, you imbeciles."

    I think that 17 of the passengers are arguing over whether to go to Skegness or Stratford, while 16 of the others say that they would rather have a dayout in the city. So they pull over in a layby, where some get out deckchairs and picnic, while others take their jackets off and start picking fights. Meanwhile the day is getting shorter, and the passing traffic looks on in puzzled astonishment.
    16 of them didn't want to go on the bus trip in the first place and were forced on the bus against their will. Now it has started to rain, 3 of the original 17 have changed their mind and the rest can't make up they mind where that want to go. "Let's have another vote on this" "You can't do that. It would be in undemocratic "
    Everyone was already on the bus and it was heading to an uncertain place called EverCloserUnion.

    Three people were happy about this and a few others pretended it wasn't happening.
    The driver of the bus had already got a concession that it wasn't going to EverCloserUnion.
    Yet that was still the bus companies only destination. The driver just had a concession it wasn't going to be called that but it was still the same place like Derry.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,135
    A BRILLIANT article. More sensitivity and perception in that one young guy than you'd get reading Guido in a lifetime
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 8,621
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    CD13 said:

    In a place not far away, 33 members of a social club decided 17 - 16 to have a day out. They voted to hire a bus, leave the city and go to the coast. Once on the bus, 30 passengers sat back in their seats, content to let the driver find somewhere suitable, but three of them refused to accept the vote.

    You know the sort, every club has them. The local know-it-alls. "You can't leave the city, it's never been done before, there's radiation and wild animals and people get drowned in the sea, you know. My wife's brother's friend once get a nasty suntan. Stop now."

    Even worse, the three try to stop the bus even leaving the depot. "It's for your own good, you imbeciles."

    I think that 17 of the passengers are arguing over whether to go to Skegness or Stratford, while 16 of the others say that they would rather have a dayout in the city. So they pull over in a layby, where some get out deckchairs and picnic, while others take their jackets off and start picking fights. Meanwhile the day is getting shorter, and the passing traffic looks on in puzzled astonishment.
    16 of them didn't want to go on the bus trip in the first place and were forced on the bus against their will. Now it has started to rain, 3 of the original 17 have changed their mind and the rest can't make up they mind where that want to go. "Let's have another vote on this" "You can't do that. It would be in undemocratic "
    Everyone was already on the bus and it was heading to an uncertain place called EverCloserUnion.

    Three people were happy about this and a few others pretended it wasn't happening.
    The driver of the bus had already got a concession that it wasn't going to EverCloserUnion.
    Since when?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,102

    If this isn't a temporary skew and becomes a trend,it seems hard to see come party conference Labour being able to resist calls for a second vote.

    Even if they adopt a policy of a 'second vote' at conference (i.e. in late September), how do they bring that about?

    Conference might back the policy but Corbyn can ignore it with impunity.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,390
    edited June 2018
    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    CD13 said:

    In a place not far away, 33 members of a social club decided 17 - 16 to have a day out. They voted to hire a bus, leave the city and go to the coast. Once on the bus, 30 passengers sat back in their seats, content to let the driver find somewhere suitable, but three of them refused to accept the vote.

    You know the sort, every club has them. The local know-it-alls. "You can't leave the city, it's never been done before, there's radiation and wild animals and people get drowned in the sea, you know. My wife's brother's friend once get a nasty suntan. Stop now."

    Even worse, the three try to stop the bus even leaving the depot. "It's for your own good, you imbeciles."

    I think that 17 of the passengers are arguing over whether to go to Skegness or Stratford, while 16 of the others say that they would rather have a dayout in the city. So they pull over in a layby, where some get out deckchairs and picnic, while others take their jackets off and start picking fights. Meanwhile the day is getting shorter, and the passing traffic looks on in puzzled astonishment.
    16 of them didn't want to go on the bus trip in the first place and were forced on the bus against their will. Now it has started to rain, 3 of the original 17 have changed their mind and the rest can't make up they mind where that want to go. "Let's have another vote on this" "You can't do that. It would be in undemocratic "
    I think this is why instinctively I want Brexit to go ahead now. I simply can not stand people who want to change plans just because of a bit of rain or inconvieniance! - even if I was part of the original 16. We're on the bus and we're off.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 84,000

    If this isn't a temporary skew and becomes a trend,it seems hard to see come party conference Labour being able to resist calls for a second vote.

    It can when Corbyn's aides now have a majority on the NEC and he needs working class Labour Leave seats for a majority
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 6,872

    I think the referendum question is a bit tricksy; For a lot of voters the answer is really going to depend on what the alternative to taking the deal is. Having asked the voters if they accept the deal, there are a few different options for what happens if they say no:

    1) Car-crash brexit
    2) No brexit
    3) Third referendum to choose between (1) and (2)
    4) One of the above, but the government isn't telling you which, are you feeling lucky?

    I think if you had some clarity that you meant one of those you'd get quite a bit less support.

    To satisfy both sides I think the referendum question would have to include no deal and remain in EU.

    1. Reject deal and leave EU with no deal
    2. Accept deal and leave EU
    3. Reject deal and remain in EU (if they'll have us)

    It could be FPTP or AV.

    Under FPTP, (3) would probably win. Under AV, (1) would drop out first and transfer entirely to (2) so (2) would probably win.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 10,987
    Perhaps his daughter needs to wind him up again, cut out a few headlines about Sterling rising not falling over and over again.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 6,872

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    CD13 said:

    In a place not far away, 33 members of a social club decided 17 - 16 to have a day out. They voted to hire a bus, leave the city and go to the coast. Once on the bus, 30 passengers sat back in their seats, content to let the driver find somewhere suitable, but three of them refused to accept the vote.

    You know the sort, every club has them. The local know-it-alls. "You can't leave the city, it's never been done before, there's radiation and wild animals and people get drowned in the sea, you know. My wife's brother's friend once get a nasty suntan. Stop now."

    Even worse, the three try to stop the bus even leaving the depot. "It's for your own good, you imbeciles."

    I think that 17 of the passengers are arguing over whether to go to Skegness or Stratford, while 16 of the others say that they would rather have a dayout in the city. So they pull over in a layby, where some get out deckchairs and picnic, while others take their jackets off and start picking fights. Meanwhile the day is getting shorter, and the passing traffic looks on in puzzled astonishment.
    16 of them didn't want to go on the bus trip in the first place and were forced on the bus against their will. Now it has started to rain, 3 of the original 17 have changed their mind and the rest can't make up they mind where that want to go. "Let's have another vote on this" "You can't do that. It would be in undemocratic "
    Everyone was already on the bus and it was heading to an uncertain place called EverCloserUnion.

    Three people were happy about this and a few others pretended it wasn't happening.
    The driver of the bus had already got a concession that it wasn't going to EverCloserUnion.
    Since when?
    "It is recognised that the United Kingdom, in the light of the specific situation it has under the Treaties, is not committed to further political integration into the European Union. The substance of this will be incorporated into the Treaties at the time of their next revision in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Treaties and the respective constitutional requirements of the Member States, so as to make it clear that the references to ever closer union do not apply to the United Kingdom."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35622105
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,102

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The big news from the Eurozone is this: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3365727-eurozone-agrees-end-greek-bailout

    10 years of no interest payments is - of course - equivalent to about a 30% debt write off... without it actually being called a debt write off,

    yes.

    and although Id say about time too, the fact remains Greece still needs a debt write off.

    It is a debt write off, just a hidden one. Imagine you had debt of $100, and were paying $3 interest a year on it.

    Now, if that was cut to $80, and you were now paying $2.40 a year, that would be a 20% debt write off, and that would be obvious.

    Imagine instead that you weren't required to make 10 years if interest payments of $3, you would be essentially as well off as a 20% cut in the principle and interest payments.

    If Greece used the money they were going to pay in interest every year to pay down their debt, then they would cut their debt loading by somewhere between 20 and 30% (I don't know the exact interest rates on Greek debt).
    rcs

    I do understand how they've hidden it, but in my view they needed both. The Germans have hammered Greece for 10 years and need to accept they were complicit in letting Greece in to a system they couldn't manage.

    Every time I see Merkel lecturing the rest of the world about compassion and solidarity I just look at Greece and say yeah right.
    It's easy to blame Germany, the ECB, the Commission, Goldman Sachs (?) and so on for massaging / ignoring the figures that allowed Greece to join the Euro - not least because there is blame to be assigned there - but the greater portion of the blame should be levelled at how the Greek government and public behaved between 2002-08. No-one forced them to spend their interest bonus on the equivalent of partying and days off.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 23,073
    welshowl said:

    Foxy said:

    OllyT said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_P said:

    DavidL said:

    We are negotiating this in the worst possible circumstances: divided as a country, with a minority government sometimes living from vote to vote and above all far too little focus on what we actually want. Most of the deal will thankfully write itself but it will not be as good for UK plc as it could have been.

    And not as good as we have now.

    That's the crux of it.

    Brexit is an exercise in self harm, and the Government are doing a .
    It's a trade off Scott
    Trade off?

    We were told time and again there were no downsides to Brexit. How could there be when we hold all the cards?

    Think that's exactly right. They say that now but most weren't saying it during the referendum campaign. It was a very different tune then, any possible negatives were airily dismissed as Project Fear.

    Basically a referendum was won by a small margin on the basis that there weren't any significant downsides - in fact I believe the polling at the time showed that 57% of leavers believed they were actually going to be better off after Brexit!

    Now we know there are major downsides, nobody is seriously claiming we are going to be better off until sometime long distant tomorrow that may never even come but we still have to proceed as it's "the will of the people". And people wonder why Remainers are still p*ssed off and haven't united behind Brexit. Dream on
    I recall a poll pre Brexit, that the price of £50 for Brexit to the voter personally would have flipped the vote.

    But the vote wasn't about economics, that is where Remain went wrong in its campaign, it was about Britain's place in the world, and self image. Largely that is where the problems still lie. It is whybeing a vassal state is so toxic.
    Dead right. It was why it was such a colossal mistake by politicians of all stripes not to check back with the voters along the way of Maastricht, Nice, Amsterdam, Lisbon etc ( as the Irish wisely had to), and not just blithely assume “we didn’t care”. We would never have arrived at 23.6.16. If we’d been asked regularly if we agreed ( even once might’ve helped). But no, on they sailed regardless.
    We joined the EEC with an extensive discussion of our place in the world in the aftermath of the end of Empire. The current debate was much less informed, being a strange cocktail of Empire Revivalism, Cod-WW2 references and Fortress Britain rhetoric. The counter argument of Britain as a central strand of European culture and thought was hardly touched on by Remain.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 84,000
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:


    1) In a decade maybe but not while we have a pro Brexit Tory government backed by the pro Brexit and anti EEA Corbyn leadimg Labour

    2) Indeed it was the closest election I have ever personally helped in

    In response to your 1) Corbyn is responsible for the current political glacis and I suspect his departure will begin to unfreeze the icebergs a bit. I can't speak for the Conservative Party (you are a much better authority) but nothing that has happened has ultimately resolved the internal tensions within both major parties.

    It seems more likely Labour will, post-Corbyn, move to a more sympathetic line with regard to the EU but there are any number of variables.

    For example, if the global economy moves into a downturn at the point we leave the EU there will be those who will put two and two together, come up with seven and argue the downturn is the direct result of us leaving the EU and will join the side of those wanting to rejoin.

    Conversely, if the global economic climate is favourable when we leave, Brexit will be hailed a huge success and the voices of those seeking to return or re-join will be muted.

    There's also the thorny question of the terms on which any future UK Government would have to re-join the EU - no Government can or presumably could accept the Euro, Schengen and full Freedom of Movement but could something more nuanced be negotiated - would the EU be willing ?

    As Corbyn will be there at least until 2022 if he loses the next general election and until 2027 if he wins that still means hard Brexit or close to it for at least a decade

    It would take say Chuka Umunna succeeding as Labour leader after a Corbyn general election defeat or forming a new En Marche style party on a pro EEA agenda for the UK returning to the single market let alone the EU to be a realistic prospect. Though of course as you say the post Brexit economy will have an impact.

    Regardless the UK would never join the Euro, it would have been at least 70% Leave not 52% Leave had that been the question.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 19,718

    I think even Alastair Meeks would agree that there is no great love for the EU in this country-many people think we are better off in it, but don't particularly like it

    There's no "even" about it. I'm not a fan of the EU. Never have been. I'm certainly not impressed with how they're handling Brexit.

    And yet, when you compare them with the performance being put on by Leavers and the government, which resembles a collective breakdown, they look stellar.
    My thoughts exactly.

    Anyway it is the start of a gloriously sunny day in the Lakes so we’re off to do some sailing, pub visiting and the like.

    Bye!
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,257
    CD13 said:

    In a place not far away, 33 members of a social club decided 17 - 16 to have a day out. They voted to hire a bus, leave the city and go to the coast. Once on the bus, 30 passengers sat back in their seats, content to let the driver find somewhere suitable, but three of them refused to accept the vote.

    You know the sort, every club has them. The local know-it-alls. "You can't leave the city, it's never been done before, there's radiation and wild animals and people get drowned in the sea, you know. My wife's brother's friend once get a nasty suntan. Stop now."

    Even worse, the three try to stop the bus even leaving the depot. "It's for your own good, you imbeciles."

    Meanwhile, four of those who voted to go to the coast insisted that the nearby seaside town wasn't enough, and that unless the coach crossed the Channel and went all the way down to the Costa Brava, it wasn't "respecting the vote."

    You know the sort. Every club has them. "No, I'll interpret what the vote meant, thank you, and I think it means what I wanted it to mean and if you disagree, you're antidemocratic.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 6,872
    edited June 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    CD13 said:

    In a place not far away, 33 members of a social club decided 17 - 16 to have a day out. They voted to hire a bus, leave the city and go to the coast. Once on the bus, 30 passengers sat back in their seats, content to let the driver find somewhere suitable, but three of them refused to accept the vote.

    You know the sort, every club has them. The local know-it-alls. "You can't leave the city, it's never been done before, there's radiation and wild animals and people get drowned in the sea, you know. My wife's brother's friend once get a nasty suntan. Stop now."

    Even worse, the three try to stop the bus even leaving the depot. "It's for your own good, you imbeciles."

    I think that 17 of the passengers are arguing over whether to go to Skegness or Stratford, while 16 of the others say that they would rather have a dayout in the city. So they pull over in a layby, where some get out deckchairs and picnic, while others take their jackets off and start picking fights. Meanwhile the day is getting shorter, and the passing traffic looks on in puzzled astonishment.
    16 of them didn't want to go on the bus trip in the first place and were forced on the bus against their will. Now it has started to rain, 3 of the original 17 have changed their mind and the rest can't make up they mind where that want to go. "Let's have another vote on this" "You can't do that. It would be in undemocratic "
    I think this is why instinctively I want Brexit to go ahead now. I simply can not stand people who want to change plans just because of a bit of rain or inconvieniance! - even if I was part of the original 16. We're on the bus and we're off.
    In Jungian or Myers-Briggs terms you're clearly a strong J personality. Like Mrs T. Unlike Mrs M who pretends to be a J. You like structure and decisiveness and don't like keeping options open.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 41,486
    Scott_P said:

    Is that the Slovakian plant that had been under development for several years, which JLR said was unconnected to Brexit

    They explicitly said it was a Brexit hedge.
    Wrong. “Company insiders say Brexit was not a factor - and added that most of the new Range Rovers built in Solihull will be exported to non-EU countries anyway.”

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-44438846
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 16,037
    Yes, thanks for posting this Alastair, great article. Makes you realise there's more to Sterling than meets the eye.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,413
    Mr. Barnesian, I quite like the Myers-Briggs approach, although only in a loose, broad way (believing there are precisely sixteen types of people in the world is only mildly better than believing in astrology).

    Hmm. Potential for a PB article on that sort of thing, perhaps.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 40,256
    Morning all,

    Have we crossed over from Project Fear to Project Panic yet?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The big news from the Eurozone is this: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3365727-eurozone-agrees-end-greek-bailout

    10 years of no interest payments is - of course - equivalent to about a 30% debt write off... without it actually being called a debt write off,

    yes.

    and although Id say about time too, the fact remains Greece still needs a debt write off.

    It is a debt write off, just a hidden one. Imagine you had debt of $100, and were paying $3 interest a year on it.

    Now, if that was cut to $80, and you were now paying $2.40 a year, that would be a 20% debt write off, and that would be obvious.

    Imagine instead that you weren't required to make 10 years if interest payments of $3, you would be essentially as well off as a 20% cut in the principle and interest payments.

    If Greece used the money they were going to pay in interest every year to pay down their debt, then they would cut their debt loading by somewhere between 20 and 30% (I don't know the exact interest rates on Greek debt).
    rcs

    I do understand how they've hidden it, but in my view they needed both. The Germans have hammered Greece for 10 years and need to accept they were complicit in letting Greece in to a system they couldn't manage.

    Every time I see Merkel lecturing the rest of the world about compassion and solidarity I just look at Greece and say yeah right.
    It's easy to blame Germany, the ECB, the Commission, Goldman Sachs (?) and so on for massaging / ignoring the figures that allowed Greece to join the Euro - not least because there is blame to be assigned there - but the greater portion of the blame should be levelled at how the Greek government and public behaved between 2002-08. No-one forced them to spend their interest bonus on the equivalent of partying and days off.
    Forget the morality tale. The Eurozone system is broken, and in a way that benefits Germany, which is unfortunate as probably only Germany can fix it.
  • Morning all,

    Have we crossed over from Project Fear to Project Panic yet?

    Project Grim Reality.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting random fact picked up on Twitter. Airbus' tax bill covers 20% of EU membership cost.

    Ummm: I very much doubt that Airbus pays £3bn in UK corporation tax.
    Well as it happens there is a report on its contribution to the UK economy that I have just discovered.

    file:///Users/colinsanders/Downloads/Airbus%20Oxford%20Economics%20Report.pdf

    Corporation tax was £1.7bn, so not too far off.

    But the precise details don't matter. The important point is that Brexit will cost us a lot and the sooner leavers start admitting that their preferred course of action is going to make us all poorer the sooner we can start having a grown up debate about what we do about it.


  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 16,037
    O/T

    If you look past the slightly misleading headline, there's an interesting and well-written article from Martin Kettle in today's Gaurdian about the opportunity the Conservatives have for grabbing the vacant space centre.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/22/tories-break-thatcher-legacy-more-money-nhs

    I'd be interested if PB Tories see it this way?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 19,761

    Morning all,

    Have we crossed over from Project Fear to Project Panic yet?

    Project Grim Reality.
    So record employment, falling government borrowing, falling trade deficit and rebalancing economy.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 19,761

    Morning all,

    Have we crossed over from Project Fear to Project Panic yet?

    Project Grim Reality.
    So record employment, falling government borrowing, falling trade deficit and rebalancing economy.
    Meanwhile out in the real business world the reality is:

    ' Manufacturing order books recovered and the volume of output increased strongly in the three months to June, according to the latest monthly CBI Industrial Trends Survey.

    According to the survey of 388 manufacturers, output grew at the fastest pace since December 2017 in the three months to June, broadly in line with expectations. Growth was broad-based, with output growing in 14 out of 17 sub-sectors, with growth mostly driven by “Food, Drink and Tobacco”, and “Mechanical Engineering”. Respondents anticipate that output growth will slow slightly over the next three months.

    Total order books returned to the healthier levels recorded at the end of 2017, while export orders remained stable and well above average, in line with the past 16 months.

    Expectations for output price inflation softened to the weakest in almost a year, while stocks levels moved back below the long-run average. '

    http://www.cbi.org.uk/news/recovery-in-manufacturing-order-books-promising/
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 29,288

    Morning all,

    Have we crossed over from Project Fear to Project Panic yet?

    Project Grim Reality.
    So record employment, falling government borrowing, falling trade deficit and rebalancing economy.
    Yeh, but that aside, it's Grim Reality.
  • Morning all,

    Have we crossed over from Project Fear to Project Panic yet?

    Project Grim Reality.
    So record employment, falling government borrowing, falling trade deficit and rebalancing economy.
    George Osborne’s golden legacy.
  • Sean_F said:

    Morning all,

    Have we crossed over from Project Fear to Project Panic yet?

    Project Grim Reality.
    So record employment, falling government borrowing, falling trade deficit and rebalancing economy.
    Yeh, but that aside, it's Grim Reality.
    But all that is risk from a bad Brexit.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 19,761

    Morning all,

    Have we crossed over from Project Fear to Project Panic yet?

    Project Grim Reality.
    So record employment, falling government borrowing, falling trade deficit and rebalancing economy.
    George Osborne’s golden legacy.
    You mean the stagnant wages, stagnant productivity, three manufacturing recessions, falling home ownership and record current account deficit ?

    :wink:
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Wrong.

    Top JLR boss Andy Goss told Sky News that its investment in a car plant in Slovakia should now be seen as a "hedge" against uncertainty around the post-Brexit trading environment.

    https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-forensics-why-car-industry-is-getting-worried-11041671
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 19,761
    Sean_F said:

    Morning all,

    Have we crossed over from Project Fear to Project Panic yet?

    Project Grim Reality.
    So record employment, falling government borrowing, falling trade deficit and rebalancing economy.
    Yeh, but that aside, it's Grim Reality.
    Almost forgot the 20% rise in the stock market.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 6,872

    Mr. Barnesian, I quite like the Myers-Briggs approach, although only in a loose, broad way (believing there are precisely sixteen types of people in the world is only mildly better than believing in astrology).

    Hmm. Potential for a PB article on that sort of thing, perhaps.

    If you superimpose the 16 Myers-Briggs personality types onto the four basic political beliefs you end up with 64 types which is enough to be going on with. Many are represented on PB. @Pulpstar for instance I think is an ENTJ Libertarian Economic Right. I am an ENFJ Libertarian Economic Left.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_compass
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 19,761
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    CD13 said:

    In a place not far away, 33 members of a social club decided 17 - 16 to have a day out. They voted to hire a bus, leave the city and go to the coast. Once on the bus, 30 passengers sat back in their seats, content to let the driver find somewhere suitable, but three of them refused to accept the vote.

    You know the sort, every club has them. The local know-it-alls. "You can't leave the city, it's never been done before, there's radiation and wild animals and people get drowned in the sea, you know. My wife's brother's friend once get a nasty suntan. Stop now."

    Even worse, the three try to stop the bus even leaving the depot. "It's for your own good, you imbeciles."

    I think that 17 of the passengers are arguing over whether to go to Skegness or Stratford, while 16 of the others say that they would rather have a dayout in the city. So they pull over in a layby, where some get out deckchairs and picnic, while others take their jackets off and start picking fights. Meanwhile the day is getting shorter, and the passing traffic looks on in puzzled astonishment.
    16 of them didn't want to go on the bus trip in the first place and were forced on the bus against their will. Now it has started to rain, 3 of the original 17 have changed their mind and the rest can't make up they mind where that want to go. "Let's have another vote on this" "You can't do that. It would be in undemocratic "
    Everyone was already on the bus and it was heading to an uncertain place called EverCloserUnion.

    Three people were happy about this and a few others pretended it wasn't happening.
    The driver of the bus had already got a concession that it wasn't going to EverCloserUnion.
    But he was still driving along the road to EverCloserUnion.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 19,761
    That was a good read.

    But he's still pretty unlikeable when its anything to do with football.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,491

    rcs1000 said:

    Interesting random fact picked up on Twitter. Airbus' tax bill covers 20% of EU membership cost.

    Ummm: I very much doubt that Airbus pays £3bn in UK corporation tax.
    Well as it happens there is a report on its contribution to the UK economy that I have just discovered.

    file:///Users/colinsanders/Downloads/Airbus%20Oxford%20Economics%20Report.pdf

    Corporation tax was £1.7bn, so not too far off.

    But the precise details don't matter. The important point is that Brexit will cost us a lot and the sooner leavers start admitting that their preferred course of action is going to make us all poorer the sooner we can start having a grown up debate about what we do about it.


    That €1.7bn is Airbus as a whole, not Airbus UK. Airbus UK looks to have posted a net operating loss in the UK (usually this is done via transfer pricing which transfers the profits into a lower tax centre like Ireland or the Netherlands) and received a tax credit for the year.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 41,486
    Scott_P said:

    Wrong.

    Top JLR boss Andy Goss told Sky News that its investment in a car plant in Slovakia should now be seen as a "hedge" against uncertainty around the post-Brexit trading environment.

    https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-forensics-why-car-industry-is-getting-worried-11041671
    “Told Sky News” - in other words whispered in the ear of Faisal “objective” Islam, which he interpreted the way he wanted to.

    Anyway, it was a hedge by default and not deliberate, which matches with what i said earlier: "It's become a hedge by default - we will assess everything in the cold light of day - we don't expect to do it, but if we have to we will," he told me.“
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 19,761
    Scott_P said:

    Wrong.

    Top JLR boss Andy Goss told Sky News that its investment in a car plant in Slovakia should now be seen as a "hedge" against uncertainty around the post-Brexit trading environment.

    https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-forensics-why-car-industry-is-getting-worried-11041671
    The car factory they began building in 2015 ?

    Do you think they were planning on leaving it idle ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,390
    edited June 2018
    Barnesian said:

    Mr. Barnesian, I quite like the Myers-Briggs approach, although only in a loose, broad way (believing there are precisely sixteen types of people in the world is only mildly better than believing in astrology).

    Hmm. Potential for a PB article on that sort of thing, perhaps.

    If you superimpose the 16 Myers-Briggs personality types onto the four basic political beliefs you end up with 64 types which is enough to be going on with. Many are represented on PB. @Pulpstar for instance I think is an ENTJ Libertarian Economic Right. I am an ENFJ Libertarian Economic Left.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_compass
    I am indeed in the libertarian right quadrant whenever I do that quiz/test but only about a third of the way along the right and about a pixel below the centre line. For instance I think the NHS is a decent enough system of delivering healthcare and wouldn't scrap it which a true libertarian certainly would.

    ON making decisions and sticking to them, it's a source of occasional disagreement in our relationship when my fiancee changes her mind about something we've planned ! I prefer to stick to plans.
This discussion has been closed.