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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation Brexit anniversary poll has REMAIN 5% ahead

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,390

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Arguing for nationalisation of companies really ought to get you kicked out of the Tory party.

    Honestly if I wanted to be a member of a party advocating nationalisation I’d have joined the Labour Party.

    Free markets or death.

    The airlines, aerospace, the railways, the electricity and gas and water industries, the post office and telecommunications were all nationalised under Tory PMs from Churchill to Heath. I may have supported Thatcher's privatisations but you can be a Tory and oppose free trade, it is much more difficult to be a Tory and a republican you may take note. Support for free trade is one of the defining features of a liberal not a conservative
    Which Tory PM nationalised the railways? Name names.

    As being for pro free trade and support therein, it is what being a Tory is all about.
    All the Tory PMs from 1951 to 1974 kept the railways nationalised and refused to privatise them, indeed so did Thatcher and it was not until Major they were privatised.

    Being pro free trade and pro free market is a common trait of Tories but not as definitive as being a monarchist say
    But none of them actually took the entire railway system from the private sector into the public sector.
    Many people complain about British Rail, but my other half's grandmother remembers the system pre nationalisation and didn't think it was very good.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 29,288

    HYUFD said:

    Arguing for nationalisation of companies really ought to get you kicked out of the Tory party.

    Honestly if I wanted to be a member of a party advocating nationalisation I’d have joined the Labour Party.

    Free markets or death.

    The airlines, aerospace, the railways, the electricity and gas and water industries, the post office and telecommunications were all nationalised under Tory PMs from Churchill to Heath. I may have supported Thatcher's privatisations but you can be a Tory and oppose free trade, it is much more difficult to be a Tory and a republican you may take note. Support for free trade is one of the defining features of a liberal not a conservative
    Which Tory PM nationalised the railways? Name names.

    As being for pro free trade and support therein, it is what being a Tory is all about.
    I'd see it as an important part of it, but not the only part.

    However, many Conservatives have been hostile to free trade.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,754
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So the real question is which other countries have benefited?
    I would suggest maybe Ireland and Czech as the only 2.

    I think the easy was to solve that question would be to ask which countries in the Eurozone have seen an absolute increase in the number of people in employment* since its creation on 1/1/99.

    Care to make a guess?

    * You could also use the proportion of people in employment.
    Ireland started the Euro with 1.57m in employment, and is now at 2.2m. I doubt many other countries in the world have managed a 33% increase.
    The UK has gone from 27m to 32m, an 18% jump.
    The US has gone from 138m to 155m, a 12% increase.
    Germany has gone from 39m to 45m, a 15% increase.
    Spain has gone from 14m to 18.9m, a 35% jump - and the new record.
    Greece employment data only starts in 2004, so the numbers are not comparable, nevertheless they show a shift from 4.3m to 3.8m, a 14% fall in employment.
    Portugal has gone from 4.8m to errr... 4.8m, which is flat employment.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 17,304
    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Arguing for nationalisation of companies really ought to get you kicked out of the Tory party.

    Honestly if I wanted to be a member of a party advocating nationalisation I’d have joined the Labour Party.

    Free markets or death.

    The airlines, aerospace, the railways, the electricity and gas and water industries, the post office and telecommunications were all nationalised under Tory PMs from Churchill to Heath. I may have supported Thatcher's privatisations but you can be a Tory and oppose free trade, it is much more difficult to be a Tory and a republican you may take note. Support for free trade is one of the defining features of a liberal not a conservative
    Which Tory PM nationalised the railways? Name names.

    As being for pro free trade and support therein, it is what being a Tory is all about.
    Theresa May is nationalising one on Saturday night. ;)
    Not the whole network, just one TOC that returned the franchise.
    Technically Network Rail was brought back into public ownership under David Cameron.
    Wasn’t that just a reclassification exercise, Blair did the deed, shamefully using the invasion of Afghanistan to bury bad news?
    Up until 2014 Network Rail were able to borrow money against their own assets. Now they are queuing up for money from the government just like everyone else.

    And given the disaster that was RailTrack, I don't think Labour had much choice.
    Why can't Network Rail borrow against their own assets any more ? Seems an odd decision from I presume the coalition Gov't to end that in 2014.
    Putting the existing debt on the balance sheet gets NR a better rate of interest. But Phil isn't going to let NR borrow money now it goes down against his name!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 29,288
    Scott_P said:

    Which it wasn't.

    That is at best debatable, and may yet end up in court
    What legal argument is there against the referendum result?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,390
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Arguing for nationalisation of companies really ought to get you kicked out of the Tory party.

    Honestly if I wanted to be a member of a party advocating nationalisation I’d have joined the Labour Party.

    Free markets or death.

    The airlines, aerospace, the railways, the electricity and gas and water industries, the post office and telecommunications were all nationalised under Tory PMs from Churchill to Heath. I may have supported Thatcher's privatisations but you can be a Tory and oppose free trade, it is much more difficult to be a Tory and a republican you may take note. Support for free trade is one of the defining features of a liberal not a conservative
    Which Tory PM nationalised the railways? Name names.

    As being for pro free trade and support therein, it is what being a Tory is all about.
    Theresa May is nationalising one on Saturday night. ;)
    Not the whole network, just one TOC that returned the franchise.
    Technically Network Rail was brought back into public ownership under David Cameron.
    Wasn’t that just a reclassification exercise, Blair did the deed, shamefully using the invasion of Afghanistan to bury bad news?
    Up until 2014 Network Rail were able to borrow money against their own assets. Now they are queuing up for money from the government just like everyone else.

    And given the disaster that was RailTrack, I don't think Labour had much choice.
    Why can't Network Rail borrow against their own assets any more ? Seems an odd decision from I presume the coalition Gov't to end that in 2014.
    Putting the existing debt on the balance sheet gets NR a better rate of interest. But Phil isn't going to let NR borrow money now it goes down against his name!
    It's a poor system that lets the accounting niceties drive the decision making, very Gordon Brownesque.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 29,288
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So the real question is which other countries have benefited?
    I would suggest maybe Ireland and Czech as the only 2.

    I think the easy was to solve that question would be to ask which countries in the Eurozone have seen an absolute increase in the number of people in employment* since its creation on 1/1/99.

    Care to make a guess?

    * You could also use the proportion of people in employment.
    Ireland started the Euro with 1.57m in employment, and is now at 2.2m. I doubt many other countries in the world have managed a 33% increase.
    The UK has gone from 27m to 32m, an 18% jump.
    The US has gone from 138m to 155m, a 12% increase.
    Germany has gone from 39m to 45m, a 15% increase.
    Spain has gone from 14m to 18.9m, a 35% jump - and the new record.
    Greece employment data only starts in 2004, so the numbers are not comparable, nevertheless they show a shift from 4.3m to 3.8m, a 14% fall in employment.
    Portugal has gone from 4.8m to errr... 4.8m, which is flat employment.
    I was reading that 500,000 Greeks had emigrated to other European countries, which is explained by that figure.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,754
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So the real question is which other countries have benefited?
    I would suggest maybe Ireland and Czech as the only 2.

    I think the easy was to solve that question would be to ask which countries in the Eurozone have seen an absolute increase in the number of people in employment* since its creation on 1/1/99.

    Care to make a guess?

    * You could also use the proportion of people in employment.
    Ireland started the Euro with 1.57m in employment, and is now at 2.2m. I doubt many other countries in the world have managed a 33% increase.
    The UK has gone from 27m to 32m, an 18% jump.
    The US has gone from 138m to 155m, a 12% increase.
    Germany has gone from 39m to 45m, a 15% increase.
    Spain has gone from 14m to 18.9m, a 35% jump - and the new record.
    Greece employment data only starts in 2004, so the numbers are not comparable, nevertheless they show a shift from 4.3m to 3.8m, a 14% fall in employment.
    Portugal has gone from 4.8m to errr... 4.8m, which is flat employment.
    Italy data only starts in 2004 as well, and has seen employment rise from 22.0m to 23.2m, a 5% increase.
    The Netherlands data only starts in 2000, and has employment increasing from 6.9m to 8.8m, a 28% move.

    So, in summary: Germany has clearly benefited - but so have Ireland, Spain, and the Netherlands, all of which have seen significantly stronger employment growth than (for example) the US.

    Greece has clearly lost out badly, while Portugal hasn't done too well either.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,754
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So the real question is which other countries have benefited?
    I would suggest maybe Ireland and Czech as the only 2.

    I think the easy was to solve that question would be to ask which countries in the Eurozone have seen an absolute increase in the number of people in employment* since its creation on 1/1/99.

    Care to make a guess?

    * You could also use the proportion of people in employment.
    Ireland started the Euro with 1.57m in employment, and is now at 2.2m. I doubt many other countries in the world have managed a 33% increase.
    The UK has gone from 27m to 32m, an 18% jump.
    The US has gone from 138m to 155m, a 12% increase.
    Germany has gone from 39m to 45m, a 15% increase.
    Spain has gone from 14m to 18.9m, a 35% jump - and the new record.
    Greece employment data only starts in 2004, so the numbers are not comparable, nevertheless they show a shift from 4.3m to 3.8m, a 14% fall in employment.
    Portugal has gone from 4.8m to errr... 4.8m, which is flat employment.
    I was reading that 500,000 Greeks had emigrated to other European countries, which is explained by that figure.

    I find it fascinating that everyone focuses on Germany, but the Netherlands, Ireland, Spain, and Belgium (of the countries I've checked on Trading Economics) have all done substantially better in terms of employment growth.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So the real question is which other countries have benefited?
    I would suggest maybe Ireland and Czech as the only 2.

    I think the easy was to solve that question would be to ask which countries in the Eurozone have seen an absolute increase in the number of people in employment* since its creation on 1/1/99.

    Care to make a guess?

    * You could also use the proportion of people in employment.
    Ireland started the Euro with 1.57m in employment, and is now at 2.2m. I doubt many other countries in the world have managed a 33% increase.
    The UK has gone from 27m to 32m, an 18% jump.
    The US has gone from 138m to 155m, a 12% increase.
    You could also look at unemployed people.
    Spain 1.6m to 3.3m
    France 3m to 3,5m
    Portugal 300K to 380K
  • Neymar Jnr = Overrated donkey.


    A Fortnum& Mason Jason Lee.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,641

    Neymar Jnr = Overrated donkey.


    A Fortnum& Mason Jason Lee.

    Lol...what does that make messi?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,754

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So the real question is which other countries have benefited?
    I would suggest maybe Ireland and Czech as the only 2.

    I think the easy was to solve that question would be to ask which countries in the Eurozone have seen an absolute increase in the number of people in employment* since its creation on 1/1/99.

    Care to make a guess?

    * You could also use the proportion of people in employment.
    Ireland started the Euro with 1.57m in employment, and is now at 2.2m. I doubt many other countries in the world have managed a 33% increase.
    The UK has gone from 27m to 32m, an 18% jump.
    The US has gone from 138m to 155m, a 12% increase.
    You could also look at unemployed people.
    Spain 1.6m to 3.3m
    France 3m to 3,5m
    Portugal 300K to 380K
    I find employed people to be a generally more useful measure, personally. Why? Because if you're a construction worker with a stay at home wife and a kid in Malaga, then if you lose your job, then you both sign on. That's why unemployment rose quicker in Spain than employment fell.

    By comparison, in the US, the benefits system won't pay out to someone who didn't previously have a job, and - compared to Europe - payments are small. This means that the number of people on food stamps disconnected from the employment rate.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So the real question is which other countries have benefited?
    I would suggest maybe Ireland and Czech as the only 2.

    I think the easy was to solve that question would be to ask which countries in the Eurozone have seen an absolute increase in the number of people in employment* since its creation on 1/1/99.

    Care to make a guess?

    * You could also use the proportion of people in employment.
    Ireland started the Euro with 1.57m in employment, and is now at 2.2m. I doubt many other countries in the world have managed a 33% increase.
    The UK has gone from 27m to 32m, an 18% jump.
    The US has gone from 138m to 155m, a 12% increase.
    You could also look at unemployed people.
    Spain 1.6m to 3.3m
    France 3m to 3,5m
    Portugal 300K to 380K
    I find employed people to be a generally more useful measure, personally. Why? Because if you're a construction worker with a stay at home wife and a kid in Malaga, then if you lose your job, then you both sign on. That's why unemployment rose quicker in Spain than employment fell.

    By comparison, in the US, the benefits system won't pay out to someone who didn't previously have a job, and - compared to Europe - payments are small. This means that the number of people on food stamps disconnected from the employment rate.
    Food stamp eligibility is also a state matter. In some of the Deep South, it's near impossible to get welfare.
  • Great reversal by the referee.

    Neymar Jnr is still a donkey.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,641
    What a dive....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,641
    VAR - greatest thing since sliced bread...
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So the real question is which other countries have benefited?
    I would suggest maybe Ireland and Czech as the only 2.

    I think the easy was to solve that question would be to ask which countries in the Eurozone have seen an absolute increase in the number of people in employment* since its creation on 1/1/99.

    Care to make a guess?

    * You could also use the proportion of people in employment.
    Ireland started the Euro with 1.57m in employment, and is now at 2.2m. I doubt many other countries in the world have managed a 33% increase.
    The UK has gone from 27m to 32m, an 18% jump.
    The US has gone from 138m to 155m, a 12% increase.
    Germany has gone from 39m to 45m, a 15% increase.
    Spain has gone from 14m to 18.9m, a 35% jump - and the new record.
    Greece employment data only starts in 2004, so the numbers are not comparable, nevertheless they show a shift from 4.3m to 3.8m, a 14% fall in employment.
    Portugal has gone from 4.8m to errr... 4.8m, which is flat employment.
    I was reading that 500,000 Greeks had emigrated to other European countries, which is explained by that figure.

    I find it fascinating that everyone focuses on Germany, but the Netherlands, Ireland, Spain, and Belgium (of the countries I've checked on Trading Economics) have all done substantially better in terms of employment growth.
    Also what is interesting about Germany is that they have done it with very little population growth. D pop 01/01/1999 82m - pop now 82.7m.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,390
    A major milestone for VAR I think that.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,754
    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So the real question is which other countries have benefited?
    I would suggest maybe Ireland and Czech as the only 2.

    I think the easy was to solve that question would be to ask which countries in the Eurozone have seen an absolute increase in the number of people in employment* since its creation on 1/1/99.

    Care to make a guess?

    * You could also use the proportion of people in employment.
    Ireland started the Euro with 1.57m in employment, and is now at 2.2m. I doubt many other countries in the world have managed a 33% increase.
    The UK has gone from 27m to 32m, an 18% jump.
    The US has gone from 138m to 155m, a 12% increase.
    You could also look at unemployed people.
    Spain 1.6m to 3.3m
    France 3m to 3,5m
    Portugal 300K to 380K
    I find employed people to be a generally more useful measure, personally. Why? Because if you're a construction worker with a stay at home wife and a kid in Malaga, then if you lose your job, then you both sign on. That's why unemployment rose quicker in Spain than employment fell.

    By comparison, in the US, the benefits system won't pay out to someone who didn't previously have a job, and - compared to Europe - payments are small. This means that the number of people on food stamps disconnected from the employment rate.
    Food stamp eligibility is also a state matter. In some of the Deep South, it's near impossible to get welfare.
    There's a fascinating disconnection in the US between the employment and the unemployment rate. The US's employment rate is down almost 4% since the beginning of 1999, even though "unemployment" is at an all time low. And the reason is discouraged workers: no point in registering as unemployed if there's no money in it.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,102
    Brazil still second-favourites for the World Cup on the Betfair exchange, at 5/1. I don't really see it myself. Value elsewhere, surely? Belgium, at 9/1, perhaps?

    The current market looks to have a few prices based more on history than current form (all prices based on back rather than lay):

    5.6 Spain
    6.0 Brazil
    9.2 France
    9.4 Germany
    10.0 belgium
    12.5 England
    17.0 Croatia
    20.0 Portugal
    32.0 uruguay
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Scott_P said:
    If a Leave Brexit is implemented (exit from SM, CU and ECJ, in name and in practice) then Leavers rightfully own it. If a Remain Brexit (vassal statehood, open immigration) is implemented, Remainers own it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 37,032
    Elliot said:

    If a Leave Brexit is implemented (exit from SM, CU and ECJ, in name and in practice) then Leavers rightfully own it. If a Remain Brexit (vassal statehood, open immigration) is implemented, Remainers own it.

    How about we all disown it together?
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So the real question is which other countries have benefited?
    I would suggest maybe Ireland and Czech as the only 2.

    I think the easy was to solve that question would be to ask which countries in the Eurozone have seen an absolute increase in the number of people in employment* since its creation on 1/1/99.

    Care to make a guess?

    * You could also use the proportion of people in employment.
    Ireland started the Euro with 1.57m in employment, and is now at 2.2m. I doubt many other countries in the world have managed a 33% increase.
    The UK has gone from 27m to 32m, an 18% jump.
    The US has gone from 138m to 155m, a 12% increase.
    Germany has gone from 39m to 45m, a 15% increase.
    Spain has gone from 14m to 18.9m, a 35% jump - and the new record.
    Greece employment data only starts in 2004, so the numbers are not comparable, nevertheless they show a shift from 4.3m to 3.8m, a 14% fall in employment.
    Portugal has gone from 4.8m to errr... 4.8m, which is flat employment.
    Italy data only starts in 2004 as well, and has seen employment rise from 22.0m to 23.2m, a 5% increase.
    The Netherlands data only starts in 2000, and has employment increasing from 6.9m to 8.8m, a 28% move.

    So, in summary: Germany has clearly benefited - but so have Ireland, Spain, and the Netherlands, all of which have seen significantly stronger employment growth than (for example) the US.

    Greece has clearly lost out badly, while Portugal hasn't done too well either.
    You have to adjust these statistics for population surely. Although interesting the UK has outperformed Germany.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,102

    Brazil still second-favourites for the World Cup on the Betfair exchange, at 5/1. I don't really see it myself. Value elsewhere, surely? Belgium, at 9/1, perhaps?

    The current market looks to have a few prices based more on history than current form (all prices based on back rather than lay):

    5.6 Spain
    6.0 Brazil
    9.2 France
    9.4 Germany
    10.0 belgium
    12.5 England
    17.0 Croatia
    20.0 Portugal
    32.0 uruguay

    Ha. And as soon as I post that, they move out to 6.8 (though the revoked penalty might have had something to do with that).
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    Arguing for nationalisation of companies really ought to get you kicked out of the Tory party.

    Honestly if I wanted to be a member of a party advocating nationalisation I’d have joined the Labour Party.

    Free markets or death.

    The airlines, aerospace, the railways, the electricity and gas and water industries, the post office and telecommunications were all nationalised under Tory PMs from Churchill to Heath. I may have supported Thatcher's privatisations but you can be a Tory and oppose free trade, it is much more difficult to be a Tory and a republican you may take note. Support for free trade is one of the defining features of a liberal not a conservative
    Which Tory PM nationalised the railways? Name names.

    As being for pro free trade and support therein, it is what being a Tory is all about.
    I'd see it as an important part of it, but not the only part.

    However, many Conservatives have been hostile to free trade.
    Free trade and free markets have been more liberal/neoliberal things throughout history than conservative ones.

    Though laissez faire zealotry is why I could never be at home in the Tory party. I would rather judge the evidence on a case by case basis.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,641
    Given England recently beat Costa Rica with ease, surely this must mean we are now favourites....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Elliot said:

    If a Remain Brexit is implemented, Remainers own it.

    QED

    There is no such thing as a "Remain Brexit"

    You won. Suck it up.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,754
    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So the real question is which other countries have benefited?
    I would suggest maybe Ireland and Czech as the only 2.

    I think the easy was to solve that question would be to ask which countries in the Eurozone have seen an absolute increase in the number of people in employment* since its creation on 1/1/99.

    Care to make a guess?

    * You could also use the proportion of people in employment.
    Ireland started the Euro with 1.57m in employment, and is now at 2.2m. I doubt many other countries in the world have managed a 33% increase.
    The UK has gone from 27m to 32m, an 18% jump.
    The US has gone from 138m to 155m, a 12% increase.
    Germany has gone from 39m to 45m, a 15% increase.
    Spain has gone from 14m to 18.9m, a 35% jump - and the new record.
    Greece employment data only starts in 2004, so the numbers are not comparable, nevertheless they show a shift from 4.3m to 3.8m, a 14% fall in employment.
    Portugal has gone from 4.8m to errr... 4.8m, which is flat employment.
    Italy data only starts in 2004 as well, and has seen employment rise from 22.0m to 23.2m, a 5% increase.
    The Netherlands data only starts in 2000, and has employment increasing from 6.9m to 8.8m, a 28% move.

    So, in summary: Germany has clearly benefited - but so have Ireland, Spain, and the Netherlands, all of which have seen significantly stronger employment growth than (for example) the US.

    Greece has clearly lost out badly, while Portugal hasn't done too well either.
    You have to adjust these statistics for population surely. Although interesting the UK has outperformed Germany.
    Fortunately, the World Bank has done that for us: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.EMP.TOTL.SP.ZS?view=chart

    This is the proportion of people aged 15+ in employment. Now, it's important to remember that the percentage of retired people (i.e. 65+) is in increasing almost everywhere, so that the employment proportion should be in decline in most countries.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 13,581

    Brazil still second-favourites for the World Cup on the Betfair exchange, at 5/1. I don't really see it myself. Value elsewhere, surely? Belgium, at 9/1, perhaps?

    The current market looks to have a few prices based more on history than current form (all prices based on back rather than lay):

    5.6 Spain
    6.0 Brazil
    9.2 France
    9.4 Germany
    10.0 belgium
    12.5 England
    17.0 Croatia
    20.0 Portugal
    32.0 uruguay

    The notion that England are a more likely winner than Croatia or Portugal is laughable. English odds reflecting the heart over head betting market here.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,641

    Brazil still second-favourites for the World Cup on the Betfair exchange, at 5/1. I don't really see it myself. Value elsewhere, surely? Belgium, at 9/1, perhaps?

    The current market looks to have a few prices based more on history than current form (all prices based on back rather than lay):

    5.6 Spain
    6.0 Brazil
    9.2 France
    9.4 Germany
    10.0 belgium
    12.5 England
    17.0 Croatia
    20.0 Portugal
    32.0 uruguay

    The notion that England are a more likely winner than Croatia or Portugal is laughable. English odds reflecting the heart over head betting market here.
    Wait for the over reaction if England beat Panama and manage a draw against Belgium.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Scott_P said:

    Elliot said:

    If a Remain Brexit is implemented, Remainers own it.

    QED

    There is no such thing as a "Remain Brexit"

    You won. Suck it up.
    Remainers have lobbied and lobbied for a BINO ever since the result. You do it on a daily basis. You whinge and cry to be listened to, and for Leavers to be ignored. If you now get your way, you will have won the battle and you will need to suck it up.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,754
    edited June 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So the real question is which other countries have benefited?
    I would suggest maybe Ireland and Czech as the only 2.

    I think the easy was to solve that question would be to ask which countries in the Eurozone have seen an absolute increase in the number of people in employment* since its creation on 1/1/99.

    Care to make a guess?

    * You could also use the proportion of people in employment.
    Ireland started the Euro with 1.57m in employment, and is now at 2.2m. I doubt many other countries in the world have managed a 33% increase.
    The UK has gone from 27m to 32m, an 18% jump.
    The US has gone from 138m to 155m, a 12% increase.
    Germany has gone from 39m to 45m, a 15% increase.
    Spain has gone from 14m to 18.9m, a 35% jump - and the new record.
    Greece employment data only starts in 2004, so the numbers are not comparable, nevertheless they show a shift from 4.3m to 3.8m, a 14% fall in employment.
    Portugal has gone from 4.8m to errr... 4.8m, which is flat employment.
    Italy data only starts in 2004 as well, and has seen employment rise from 22.0m to 23.2m, a 5% increase.
    The Netherlands data only starts in 2000, and has employment increasing from 6.9m to 8.8m, a 28% move.

    So, in summary: Germany has clearly benefited - but so have Ireland, Spain, and the Netherlands, all of which have seen significantly stronger employment growth than (for example) the US.

    Greece has clearly lost out badly, while Portugal hasn't done too well either.
    You have to adjust these statistics for population surely. Although interesting the UK has outperformed Germany.
    Fortunately, the World Bank has done that for us: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.EMP.TOTL.SP.ZS?view=chart

    This is the proportion of people aged 15+ in employment. Now, it's important to remember that the percentage of retired people (i.e. 65+) is in increasing almost everywhere, so that the employment proportion should be in decline in most countries.

    So, change since the beginning of the Euro (31/12/98):

    Belgium +3
    Denmark -3
    Estonia +4
    Finland +1
    France +1
    Germany +6 (!)
    Greece -5 (!)
    Ireland +3
    Italy +1
    Latvia +5
    Luxembourg +5
    Netherlands +2
    Norway -2
    Portugal -5
    Spain +6 (!)
    Sweden +3
    UK +3
    USA -4 (!)

    Not, I admit, what I would have expected.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,641
    Brazil get there in the end.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 39,952

    Brazil get there in the end.

    Leave Neymar out the team next match......
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So the real question is which other countries have benefited?
    I would suggest maybe Ireland and Czech as the only 2.

    I think the easy was to solve that question would be to ask which countries in the Eurozone have seen an absolute increase in the number of people in employment* since its creation on 1/1/99.

    Care to make a guess?

    * You could also use the proportion of people in employment.
    Ireland started the Euro with 1.57m in employment, and is now at 2.2m. I doubt many other countries in the world have managed a 33% increase.
    The UK has gone from 27m to 32m, an 18% jump.
    The US has gone from 138m to 155m, a 12% increase.
    Germany has gone from 39m to 45m, a 15% increase.
    Spain has gone from 14m to 18.9m, a 35% jump - and the new record.
    Greece employment data only starts in 2004, so the numbers are not comparable, nevertheless they show a shift from 4.3m to 3.8m, a 14% fall in employment.
    Portugal has gone from 4.8m to errr... 4.8m, which is flat employment.
    Italy data only starts in 2004 as well, and has seen employment rise from 22.0m to 23.2m, a 5% increase.
    The Netherlands data only starts in 2000, and has employment increasing from 6.9m to 8.8m, a 28% move.

    So, in summary: Germany has clearly benefited - but so have Ireland, Spain, and the Netherlands, all of which have seen significantly stronger employment growth than (for example) the US.

    Greece has clearly lost out badly, while Portugal hasn't done too well either.
    You have to adjust these statistics for population surely. Although interesting the UK has outperformed Germany.
    Fortunately, the World Bank has done that for us: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.EMP.TOTL.SP.ZS?view=chart

    This is the proportion of people aged 15+ in employment. Now, it's important to remember that the percentage of retired people (i.e. 65+) is in increasing almost everywhere, so that the employment proportion should be in decline in most countries.

    So, change since the beginning of the Euro (1/1/98):

    Belgium +3
    Denmark -3
    Estonia +4
    Finland +1
    France +1
    Germany +6 (!)
    Greece -5 (!)
    Ireland +3
    Italy +1
    Latvia +5
    Luxembourg +5
    Netherlands +2
    Norway -2
    Portugal -5
    Spain +6 (!)
    Sweden +3
    UK +3
    USA -4 (!)

    Not, I admit, what I would have expected.
    Very interesting. Thank you.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Elliot said:

    Remainers have lobbied and lobbied for a BINO ever since the result. You do it on a daily basis. You whinge and cry to be listened to, and for Leavers to be ignored. If you now get your way, you will have won the battle and you will need to suck it up.

    ROFLMAO

    Never knew I had such power...
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,413
    Sean_F said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_P said:
    The Airbus thing is containable while it's one company, albeit an important. If one or more of the car manufacturers weighs in with similar sentiments then it will be leaky anus time in Gammonstan.
    Sort of, but I am seeing smaller scale Airbus type decisions. If you get headlines reinforcing what you are experiencing the impact is much greater.
    Quite. Airbus has said publicly what just about every corporate boss aside from James Dyson is saying privately. It's probably too late already to stop a significant movement of economic activity out of the UK over the next couple of years.
    What about economic activity moving to the UK?
    FDI in the UK was $45bn in 2014, $33bn in 2015, $250bn in 2016 .....and $20bn in 2017. 2016 was distorted by some very large takeovers but even so there has been a big drop in foreign investment in the UK since the referendum. And it's not hard to see why.
    2016 is the obvious outlier, due as you say, to takeovers.

    Overall, investment was up 4% in 2017, which is quite reasonable.
    But it's running at half the level it was in 2014 and 2018 will surely see a further drop given Brexit uncertainty.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516
    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So the real question is which other countries have benefited?
    I would suggest maybe Ireland and Czech as the only 2.

    I think the easy was to solve that question would be to ask which countries in the Eurozone have seen an absolute increase in the number of people in employment* since its creation on 1/1/99.

    Care to make a guess?

    * You could also use the proportion of people in employment.
    Ireland started the Euro with 1.57m in employment, and is now at 2.2m. I doubt many other countries in the world have managed a 33% increase.
    The UK has gone from 27m to 32m, an 18% jump.
    The US has gone from 138m to 155m, a 12% increase.
    Germany has gone from 39m to 45m, a 15% increase.
    Spain has gone from 14m to 18.9m, a 35% jump - and the new record.
    flat employment.
    .
    The Netherlands data only starts in 2000, and has employment increasing from 6.9m to 8.8m, a 28% move.

    So, in summary: Germany has clearly benefited - but so have Ireland, Spain, and the Netherlands, all of which have seen significantly stronger employment growth than (for example) the US.

    Greece has clearly lost out badly, while Portugal hasn't done too well either.
    You have to adjust these statistics for population surely. Although interesting the UK has outperformed Germany.
    Fortunately, the World Bank has done that for us: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.EMP.TOTL.SP.ZS?view=chart

    This is the proportion of people aged 15+ in employment. Now, it's important to remember that the percentage of retired people (i.e. 65+) is in increasing almost everywhere, so that the employment proportion should be in decline in most countries.

    So, change since the beginning of the Euro (1/1/98):

    Belgium +3
    Denmark -3
    Estonia +4
    Finland +1
    France +1
    Germany +6 (!)
    Greece -5 (!)
    Ireland +3
    Italy +1
    Latvia +5
    Luxembourg +5
    Netherlands +2
    Norway -2
    Portugal -5
    Spain +6 (!)
    Sweden +3
    UK +3
    USA -4 (!)

    Not, I admit, what I would have expected.
    Very interesting. Thank you.
    I wonder if there should be an emigration adjustment. The Baltics are presumably flattered by population declining not for fertility reasons but because people had to go abroad to work.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,413
    Scott_P said:
    Brexit is like communism - attractive in theory but impossible to implement in the way its adherents promised.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,413
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Shame Brazil scored late on.

    F1: apparently, Leclerc is likely to go to Ferrari.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,754
    Elliot said:

    I wonder if there should be an emigration adjustment. The Baltics are presumably flattered by population declining not for fertility reasons but because people had to go abroad to work.

    According to Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Estonia), Estonia's population has risen between 2011 (1.294m) and 2018 (1.319m), although I would expect that Latvia and Lithuania are still seeing declines.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 57,641
    I don’t know how much itv is paying Patrice evra, but it is way too much.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 13,581
    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    I wonder if there should be an emigration adjustment. The Baltics are presumably flattered by population declining not for fertility reasons but because people had to go abroad to work.

    According to Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Estonia), Estonia's population has risen between 2011 (1.294m) and 2018 (1.319m), although I would expect that Latvia and Lithuania are still seeing declines.
    Drunken Finns who've come over on the ferry and are found lying in a gutter must get counted in the census figures.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,162

    Scott_P said:
    Brexit is like communism - attractive in theory but impossible to implement in the way its adherents promised.
    You think Brexit is attractive? Could have fooled me!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,754
    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    I wonder if there should be an emigration adjustment. The Baltics are presumably flattered by population declining not for fertility reasons but because people had to go abroad to work.

    According to Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Estonia), Estonia's population has risen between 2011 (1.294m) and 2018 (1.319m), although I would expect that Latvia and Lithuania are still seeing declines.
    Interestingly, the really big declines in Estonia's population took place before they joined the EU. Their population went from 1.566m in 1989 to 1.37m in 2000.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,754
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    I wonder if there should be an emigration adjustment. The Baltics are presumably flattered by population declining not for fertility reasons but because people had to go abroad to work.

    According to Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Estonia), Estonia's population has risen between 2011 (1.294m) and 2018 (1.319m), although I would expect that Latvia and Lithuania are still seeing declines.
    Interestingly, the really big declines in Estonia's population took place before they joined the EU. Their population went from 1.566m in 1989 to 1.37m in 2000.
    Latvia's population has declined by about 7-8,000 people a year in every year since 2008, although that's still an improvement on 10-20,000/year numbers recorded in the 1990s.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 23,521
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So the real question is which other countries have benefited?
    I would suggest maybe Ireland and Czech as the only 2.

    I think the easy was to solve that question would be to ask which countries in the Eurozone have seen an absolute increase in the number of people in employment* since its creation on 1/1/99.

    Care to make a guess?

    * You could also use the proportion of people in employment.
    Ireland started the Euro with 1.57m in employment, and is now at 2.2m. I doubt many other countries in the world have managed a 33% increase.
    The UK has gone from 27m to 32m, an 18% jump.
    The US has gone from 138m to 155m, a 12% increase.
    Germany has gone from 39m to 45m, a 15% increase.
    Spain has gone from 14m to 18.9m, a 35% jump - and the new record.
    Greece employment data only starts in 2004, so the numbers are not comparable, nevertheless they show a shift from 4.3m to 3.8m, a 14% fall in employment.
    Portugal has gone from 4.8m to errr... 4.8m, which is flat employment.
    Italy data only starts in 2004 as well, and has seen employment rise from 22.0m to 23.2m, a 5% increase.
    The Netherlands data only starts in 2000, and has employment increasing from 6.9m to 8.8m, a 28% move.

    So, in summary: Germany has clearly benefited - but so have Ireland, Spain, and the Netherlands, all of which have seen significantly stronger employment growth than (for example) the US.

    Greece has clearly lost out badly, while Portugal hasn't done too well either.
    You have to adjust these statistics for population surely. Although interesting the UK has outperformed Germany.
    Fortunately, the World Bank has done that for us: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.EMP.TOTL.SP.ZS?view=chart

    This is the proportion of people aged 15+ in employment. Now, it's important to remember that the percentage of retired people (i.e. 65+) is in increasing almost everywhere, so that the employment proportion should be in decline in most countries.

    So, change since the beginning of the Euro (31/12/98):

    Belgium +3
    Denmark -3
    Estonia +4
    Finland +1
    France +1
    Germany +6 (!)
    Greece -5 (!)
    Ireland +3
    Italy +1
    Latvia +5
    Luxembourg +5
    Netherlands +2
    Norway -2
    Portugal -5
    Spain +6 (!)
    Sweden +3
    UK +3
    USA -4 (!)

    Not, I admit, what I would have expected.
    Since it joined the EU Latvia's population has dropped by 20%. I suspect that accounts for the rise in the percentage of Latvians in employment.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 37,032
    edited June 2018

    Since it joined the EU Latvia's population has dropped by 20%. I suspect that accounts for the rise in the percentage of Latvians in employment.

    Spot the inflection point.

    image
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 29,288
    edited June 2018
    I wonder what odds you would have got a year ago, for May outlasting Mugabe and Merkel?


    That said, new elections in German would probably make it even harder to form a stable government.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,451
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    I wonder if there should be an emigration adjustment. The Baltics are presumably flattered by population declining not for fertility reasons but because people had to go abroad to work.

    According to Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Estonia), Estonia's population has risen between 2011 (1.294m) and 2018 (1.319m), although I would expect that Latvia and Lithuania are still seeing declines.
    Interestingly, the really big declines in Estonia's population took place before they joined the EU. Their population went from 1.566m in 1989 to 1.37m in 2000.
    was that ethnic Russians going back to Russia ?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 29,288
    edited June 2018

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    I wonder if there should be an emigration adjustment. The Baltics are presumably flattered by population declining not for fertility reasons but because people had to go abroad to work.

    According to Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Estonia), Estonia's population has risen between 2011 (1.294m) and 2018 (1.319m), although I would expect that Latvia and Lithuania are still seeing declines.
    Interestingly, the really big declines in Estonia's population took place before they joined the EU. Their population went from 1.566m in 1989 to 1.37m in 2000.
    was that ethnic Russians going back to Russia ?
    It looks like it. The ethnic Russian population has fallen substantially since 1991. The ethnic Latvian population has only fallen slightly.

    The ethnic Latvian population is still well below its 1939 peak. Stalin massacred and deported loads of them in 1940 -41, and more of them fled his vengeance in 1944-45.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 23,521

    Since it joined the EU Latvia's population has dropped by 20%. I suspect that accounts for the rise in the percentage of Latvians in employment.

    Spot the inflection point.

    image
    I wasn't making any comment on why it had dropped. Just pointing out it had dropped 20% since joining the EU which accounts for why there has been a 5% increase in employment rates.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,754

    Since it joined the EU Latvia's population has dropped by 20%. I suspect that accounts for the rise in the percentage of Latvians in employment.

    I'm sure that's a major role. The big issue that Latvia (and a lot of other Eastern European countries) have is that the last time their birth rate was above their death rate was back in 1990.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,102
    The Tories are safer in government than the CDU; I'm not sure that May is safer than Merkel as PM/Chancellor.
  • ElliotElliot Posts: 1,516

    Scott_P said:
    Brexit is like communism - attractive in theory but impossible to implement in the way its adherents promised.
    The idea that being an independent country in a similar manner to Australia amd Canada is as unobtainable as communist utopia is plainly nonsense. This is why Remainers must concentrate on attacking the process rather than the end state. As soon as the process is over and the debate is fully independent UK vs semi-autonomous EU member, they will be on the wrong side of all the arguments again. It also explains why they are trying to set up a vassal state status rather than full auonomy.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,413
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Brexit is like communism - attractive in theory but impossible to implement in the way its adherents promised.
    You think Brexit is attractive? Could have fooled me!
    The cakeism peddled by the Brexiteers was very attractive - all the benefits of the EU but none of the costs.

    But it was all a fantasy, and many of them knew it was a fantasy when they peddled it.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,102

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    I wonder if there should be an emigration adjustment. The Baltics are presumably flattered by population declining not for fertility reasons but because people had to go abroad to work.

    According to Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Estonia), Estonia's population has risen between 2011 (1.294m) and 2018 (1.319m), although I would expect that Latvia and Lithuania are still seeing declines.
    Interestingly, the really big declines in Estonia's population took place before they joined the EU. Their population went from 1.566m in 1989 to 1.37m in 2000.
    was that ethnic Russians going back to Russia ?
    Although there is also a smaller, but real, decline in ethnic Latvians starting in 2004, which is almost certainly an EU effect.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,162

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:
    Brexit is like communism - attractive in theory but impossible to implement in the way its adherents promised.
    You think Brexit is attractive? Could have fooled me!
    The cakeism peddled by the Brexiteers was very attractive - all the benefits of the EU but none of the costs.

    But it was all a fantasy, and many of them knew it was a fantasy when they peddled it.
    Same could be said for the Remain side. The EU has made it clear that Brexit means Brexit, and that we can’t cherry pick membership of the CU/SM.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 36,754

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Elliot said:

    I wonder if there should be an emigration adjustment. The Baltics are presumably flattered by population declining not for fertility reasons but because people had to go abroad to work.

    According to Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Estonia), Estonia's population has risen between 2011 (1.294m) and 2018 (1.319m), although I would expect that Latvia and Lithuania are still seeing declines.
    Interestingly, the really big declines in Estonia's population took place before they joined the EU. Their population went from 1.566m in 1989 to 1.37m in 2000.
    was that ethnic Russians going back to Russia ?
    Although there is also a smaller, but real, decline in ethnic Latvians starting in 2004, which is almost certainly an EU effect.
    Don't forget the impact of a higher death than birth rate: this means that even with flat migration (which they don't have), then their population would be declining.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 23,521
    Elliot said:

    Scott_P said:
    Brexit is like communism - attractive in theory but impossible to implement in the way its adherents promised.
    The idea that being an independent country in a similar manner to Australia amd Canada is as unobtainable as communist utopia is plainly nonsense. This is why Remainers must concentrate on attacking the process rather than the end state. As soon as the process is over and the debate is fully independent UK vs semi-autonomous EU member, they will be on the wrong side of all the arguments again. It also explains why they are trying to set up a vassal state status rather than full auonomy.
    Yep. Having lost the major battles they are now fighting a rearguard and sabotage action. Once we have actually left it will be decades (if ever) before the question will be asked again.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 37,032
    Elliot said:

    Scott_P said:
    Brexit is like communism - attractive in theory but impossible to implement in the way its adherents promised.
    The idea that being an independent country in a similar manner to Australia amd Canada is as unobtainable as communist utopia is plainly nonsense. This is why Remainers must concentrate on attacking the process rather than the end state. As soon as the process is over and the debate is fully independent UK vs semi-autonomous EU member, they will be on the wrong side of all the arguments again. It also explains why they are trying to set up a vassal state status rather than full auonomy.
    The idea that *the UK* can be such a country is indeed unobtainable. If you want to redraw the boundaries then be honest about it.

    Even then, the geopolitical and historical position of Britain is quite different, and were we to try to go it alone there is no good reason to think it would have a positive outcome. At the end of the day we are Europeans and we have never been able to stand aloof from European politics, however much we might have wanted to. Leaving the main political framework of Europe, that has proven its resiliency and is here to stay, so that we can sit in splendid isolation is simply a bad idea.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 39,952
    Funny old World Cup when you can look forward to Iceland v Nigeria.....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,162

    Elliot said:

    Scott_P said:
    Brexit is like communism - attractive in theory but impossible to implement in the way its adherents promised.
    The idea that being an independent country in a similar manner to Australia amd Canada is as unobtainable as communist utopia is plainly nonsense. This is why Remainers must concentrate on attacking the process rather than the end state. As soon as the process is over and the debate is fully independent UK vs semi-autonomous EU member, they will be on the wrong side of all the arguments again. It also explains why they are trying to set up a vassal state status rather than full auonomy.
    The idea that *the UK* can be such a country is indeed unobtainable. If you want to redraw the boundaries then be honest about it.

    Even then, the geopolitical and historical position of Britain is quite different, and were we to try to go it alone there is no good reason to think it would have a positive outcome. At the end of the day we are Europeans and we have never been able to stand aloof from European politics, however much we might have wanted to. Leaving the main political framework of Europe, that has proven its resiliency and is here to stay, so that we can sit in splendid isolation is simply a bad idea.
    Nothing lasts forever. Not the EU, UK, or anything. And it’s definitely not here to stay in it’s present form. It’s morphing into a more integrated body, which is why we left.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RobD said:

    Same could be said for the Remain side. The EU has made it clear that Brexit means Brexit, and that we can’t cherry pick membership of the CU/SM.

    Nigel Fucking Farage has been all over the airwaves this morning claiming that Brexit does not in fact mean Brexit

    Brexit means a completely different Brexit that he never told anyone about...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,612
    Contrary to all the media reports and the full on remainers delight, Airbus’s statement is a warning not just to the UK but the EU 27 as well.


    Speaking to Sky News the company’s senior vice president Katherine Bennett said

    ‘In the event of a no deal we would see chaos at the borders

    Our parts move across the borders sometimes up to two or three times perhaps going into a satellite that we build here in the UK or the wings we make here in the UK

    We don’t want them to be affected by friction at the borders’

    She said

    ‘Airbus was running out of patience and went on to say the EU member states as well as the UK, need to understand the importance of the Airbus works

    It is putting pressure on all sides, it is not just the UK she said

    We are an international business and the EU27 need to understand the importance of integration and the way we work’


    So the report is a warning to both sides to get their act together, pity the emphasis today is all ante the UK from large and influential groups who want Brexit stopped rather than a fair comment piece by Airbus

  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,162
    Scott_P said:

    RobD said:

    Same could be said for the Remain side. The EU has made it clear that Brexit means Brexit, and that we can’t cherry pick membership of the CU/SM.

    Nigel Fucking Farage has been all over the airwaves this morning claiming that Brexit does not in fact mean Brexit

    Brexit means a completely different Brexit that he never told anyone about...
    No doubt he has strong views about what form it should take. Doesn't mean he is right, of course.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 37,032
    RobD said:

    Elliot said:

    Scott_P said:
    Brexit is like communism - attractive in theory but impossible to implement in the way its adherents promised.
    The idea that being an independent country in a similar manner to Australia amd Canada is as unobtainable as communist utopia is plainly nonsense. This is why Remainers must concentrate on attacking the process rather than the end state. As soon as the process is over and the debate is fully independent UK vs semi-autonomous EU member, they will be on the wrong side of all the arguments again. It also explains why they are trying to set up a vassal state status rather than full auonomy.
    The idea that *the UK* can be such a country is indeed unobtainable. If you want to redraw the boundaries then be honest about it.

    Even then, the geopolitical and historical position of Britain is quite different, and were we to try to go it alone there is no good reason to think it would have a positive outcome. At the end of the day we are Europeans and we have never been able to stand aloof from European politics, however much we might have wanted to. Leaving the main political framework of Europe, that has proven its resiliency and is here to stay, so that we can sit in splendid isolation is simply a bad idea.
    Nothing lasts forever. Not the EU, UK, or anything. And it’s definitely not here to stay in it’s present form. It’s morphing into a more integrated body, which is why we left.
    We haven't left yet, and the EU has been on that journey all the while we've been a member.

    It's true that nothing lasts forever, but I'd give the EU at least another century.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,612
    Scott_P said:

    RobD said:

    Same could be said for the Remain side. The EU has made it clear that Brexit means Brexit, and that we can’t cherry pick membership of the CU/SM.

    Nigel Fucking Farage has been all over the airwaves this morning claiming that Brexit does not in fact mean Brexit

    Brexit means a completely different Brexit that he never told anyone about...
    Farage turns me off every time he comes on TV
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,612

    RobD said:

    Elliot said:

    Scott_P said:
    Brexit is like communism - attractive in theory but impossible to implement in the way its adherents promised.
    The idea that being an independent country in a similar manner to Australia amd Canada is as unobtainable as communist utopia is plainly nonsense. This is why Remainers must concentrate on attacking the process rather than the end state. As soon as the process is over and the debate is fully independent UK vs semi-autonomous EU member, they will be on the wrong side of all the arguments again. It also explains why they are trying to set up a vassal state status rather than full auonomy.
    The idea that *the UK* can be such a country is indeed unobtainable. If you want to redraw the boundaries then be honest about it.

    Even then, the geopolitical and historical position of Britain is quite different, and were we to try to go it alone there is no good reason to think it would have a positive outcome. At the end of the day we are Europeans and we have never been able to stand aloof from European politics, however much we might have wanted to. Leaving the main political framework of Europe, that has proven its resiliency and is here to stay, so that we can sit in splendid isolation is simply a bad idea.
    Nothing lasts forever. Not the EU, UK, or anything. And it’s definitely not here to stay in it’s present form. It’s morphing into a more integrated body, which is why we left.
    We haven't left yet, and the EU has been on that journey all the while we've been a member.

    It's true that nothing lasts forever, but I'd give the EU at least another century.
    I would expect nothing less from your good self but it is not possible to know if the EU will last the next few years let alone 100
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,162

    RobD said:

    Elliot said:

    Scott_P said:
    Brexit is like communism - attractive in theory but impossible to implement in the way its adherents promised.
    The idea that being an independent country in a similar manner to Australia amd Canada is as unobtainable as communist utopia is plainly nonsense. This is why Remainers must concentrate on attacking the process rather than the end state. As soon as the process is over and the debate is fully independent UK vs semi-autonomous EU member, they will be on the wrong side of all the arguments again. It also explains why they are trying to set up a vassal state status rather than full auonomy.
    The idea that *the UK* can be such a country is indeed unobtainable. If you want to redraw the boundaries then be honest about it.

    Even then, the geopolitical and historical position of Britain is quite different, and were we to try to go it alone there is no good reason to think it would have a positive outcome. At the end of the day we are Europeans and we have never been able to stand aloof from European politics, however much we might have wanted to. Leaving the main political framework of Europe, that has proven its resiliency and is here to stay, so that we can sit in splendid isolation is simply a bad idea.
    Nothing lasts forever. Not the EU, UK, or anything. And it’s definitely not here to stay in it’s present form. It’s morphing into a more integrated body, which is why we left.
    We haven't left yet, and the EU has been on that journey all the while we've been a member.

    It's true that nothing lasts forever, but I'd give the EU at least another century.
    Pardon me, voted to leave. Yeah, the people would probably have been more invested in the project had they been given the opportunity to vote on it like other countries do.
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,758

    Scott_P said:
    Brexit is like communism - attractive in theory but impossible to implement in the way its adherents promised.
    Correct - but Brexit won because the best most people say about the EU seems to be meh!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,413
    Mr. Eagles, aye, the blue stripes give me nightmarish visions of the Indian circuit.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 3,257

    Brazil still second-favourites for the World Cup on the Betfair exchange, at 5/1. I don't really see it myself. Value elsewhere, surely? Belgium, at 9/1, perhaps?

    The current market looks to have a few prices based more on history than current form (all prices based on back rather than lay):

    5.6 Spain
    6.0 Brazil
    9.2 France
    9.4 Germany
    10.0 belgium
    12.5 England
    17.0 Croatia
    20.0 Portugal
    32.0 uruguay

    Belgium, Croatia, and Portugal look better than their odds would suggest.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,413

    RobD said:

    Elliot said:

    Scott_P said:
    Brexit is like communism - attractive in theory but impossible to implement in the way its adherents promised.
    The idea that being an independent country in a similar manner to Australia amd Canada is as unobtainable as communist utopia is plainly nonsense. This is why Remainers must concentrate on attacking the process rather than the end state. As soon as the process is over and the debate is fully independent UK vs semi-autonomous EU member, they will be on the wrong side of all the arguments again. It also explains why they are trying to set up a vassal state status rather than full auonomy.
    The idea that *the UK* can be such a country is indeed unobtainable. If you want to redraw the boundaries then be honest about it.

    Even then, the geopolitical and historical position of Britain is quite different, and were we to try to go it alone there is no good reason to think it would have a positive outcome. At the end of the day we are Europeans and we have never been able to stand aloof from European politics, however much we might have wanted to. Leaving the main political framework of Europe, that has proven its resiliency and is here to stay, so that we can sit in splendid isolation is simply a bad idea.
    Nothing lasts forever. Not the EU, UK, or anything. And it’s definitely not here to stay in it’s present form. It’s morphing into a more integrated body, which is why we left.
    We haven't left yet, and the EU has been on that journey all the while we've been a member.

    It's true that nothing lasts forever, but I'd give the EU at least another century.
    I would expect nothing less from your good self but it is not possible to know if the EU will last the next few years let alone 100
    True but people in the UK have been confidently predicting the EU's demise since 1957 and they have been consistently wrong.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 23,521

    Brazil still second-favourites for the World Cup on the Betfair exchange, at 5/1. I don't really see it myself. Value elsewhere, surely? Belgium, at 9/1, perhaps?

    The current market looks to have a few prices based more on history than current form (all prices based on back rather than lay):

    5.6 Spain
    6.0 Brazil
    9.2 France
    9.4 Germany
    10.0 belgium
    12.5 England
    17.0 Croatia
    20.0 Portugal
    32.0 uruguay

    Belgium, Croatia, and Portugal look better than their odds would suggest.
    It would be great if one of them won. Basically anyone but the big favourites.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 13,581
    Scott_P said:
    It's OK. The German car industry can be certain of tariff-free access to the UK market, thanks to the friendly Brexit negotiating approach from those in Brussels.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,413
    Mr. Tyndall, I agree on Belgium and Croatia. Don't want Ronaldo to win the World Cup.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,162

    RobD said:

    Elliot said:

    Scott_P said:
    Brexit is like communism - attractive in theory but impossible to implement in the way its adherents promised.
    The idea that being an independent country in a similar manner to Australia amd Canada is as unobtainable as communist utopia is plainly nonsense. This is why Remainers must concentrate on attacking the process rather than the end state. As soon as the process is over and the debate is fully independent UK vs semi-autonomous EU member, they will be on the wrong side of all the arguments again. It also explains why they are trying to set up a vassal state status rather than full auonomy.
    The idea that *the UK* can be such a country is indeed unobtainable. If you want to redraw the boundaries then be honest about it.

    Even then, the geopolitical and historical position of Britain is quite different, and were we to try to go it alone there is no good reason to think it would have a positive outcome. At the end of the day we are Europeans and we have never been able to stand aloof from European politics, however much we might have wanted to. Leaving the main political framework of Europe, that has proven its resiliency and is here to stay, so that we can sit in splendid isolation is simply a bad idea.
    Nothing lasts forever. Not the EU, UK, or anything. And it’s definitely not here to stay in it’s present form. It’s morphing into a more integrated body, which is why we left.
    We haven't left yet, and the EU has been on that journey all the while we've been a member.

    It's true that nothing lasts forever, but I'd give the EU at least another century.
    I would expect nothing less from your good self but it is not possible to know if the EU will last the next few years let alone 100
    True but people in the UK have been confidently predicting the EU's demise since 1957 and they have been consistently wrong.
    Have they? I thought that was a recent thing.
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,758

    RobD said:

    Elliot said:

    Scott_P said:
    Brexit is like communism - attractive in theory but impossible to implement in the way its adherents promised.
    The idea that being an independent country in a similar manner to Australia amd Canada is as unobtainable as communist utopia is plainly nonsense. This is why Remainers must concentrate on attacking the process rather than the end state. As soon as the process is over and the debate is fully independent UK vs semi-autonomous EU member, they will be on the wrong side of all the arguments again. It also explains why they are trying to set up a vassal state status rather than full auonomy.
    The idea that *the UK* can be such a country is indeed unobtainable. If you want to redraw the boundaries then be honest about it.

    Even then, the geopolitical and historical position of Britain is quite different, and were we to try to go it alone there is no good reason to think it would have a positive outcome. At the end of the day we are Europeans and we have never been able to stand aloof from European politics, however much we might have wanted to. Leaving the main political framework of Europe, that has proven its resiliency and is here to stay, so that we can sit in splendid isolation is simply a bad idea.
    Nothing lasts forever. Not the EU, UK, or anything. And it’s definitely not here to stay in it’s present form. It’s morphing into a more integrated body, which is why we left.
    We haven't left yet, and the EU has been on that journey all the while we've been a member.

    It's true that nothing lasts forever, but I'd give the EU at least another century.
    I would expect nothing less from your good self but it is not possible to know if the EU will last the next few years let alone 100
    True but people in the UK have been confidently predicting the EU's demise since 1957 and they have been consistently wrong.
    It has long since died from its original form. No doubt it will change much in the future. I'm not convinced that more unity is possible without federalisation.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,390

    Mr. Tyndall, I agree on Belgium and Croatia. Don't want Ronaldo to win the World Cup.

    Why not ? He's the best player of his generation I think.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 39,952
    Scott_P said:

    RobD said:

    Same could be said for the Remain side. The EU has made it clear that Brexit means Brexit, and that we can’t cherry pick membership of the CU/SM.

    Nigel Fucking Farage has been all over the airwaves this morning claiming that Brexit does not in fact mean Brexit

    Brexit means a completely different Brexit that he never told anyone about...
    A Remain campaign that wasn't full of fuckwits would have ripped him apart.

    What did you do in the great Brexit War?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,413
    Mr. Pulpstar, being talented and being likeable are not the same thing.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 23,521

    Elliot said:

    Scott_P said:
    Brexit is like communism - attractive in theory but impossible to implement in the way its adherents promised.
    The idea that being an independent country in a similar manner to Australia amd Canada is as unobtainable as communist utopia is plainly nonsense. This is why Remainers must concentrate on attacking the process rather than the end state. As soon as the process is over and the debate is fully independent UK vs semi-autonomous EU member, they will be on the wrong side of all the arguments again. It also explains why they are trying to set up a vassal state status rather than full auonomy.
    The idea that *the UK* can be such a country is indeed unobtainable. If you want to redraw the boundaries then be honest about it.

    Even then, the geopolitical and historical position of Britain is quite different, and were we to try to go it alone there is no good reason to think it would have a positive outcome. At the end of the day we are Europeans and we have never been able to stand aloof from European politics, however much we might have wanted to. Leaving the main political framework of Europe, that has proven its resiliency and is here to stay, so that we can sit in splendid isolation is simply a bad idea.
    We have managed to stand alone in terms of political independence for the overwhelming majority of our history. Your belief that we need to be part of the EU political project to survive is simply laughable.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,451

    Scott_P said:
    It's OK. The German car industry can be certain of tariff-free access to the UK market, thanks to the friendly Brexit negotiating approach from those in Brussels.
    currently the german car industry is crapping itself

    - diesel gate and its dependency on diesel
    - senior executives arrests
    - Trump
    - UK market
    - uncertainty at home


  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227
    Survation missed the obvious supplementary question to those who believe there will be a Brexit dividend: do you believe in Santa Claus ?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,102

    RobD said:

    Elliot said:

    Scott_P said:
    Brexit is like communism - attractive in theory but impossible to implement in the way its adherents promised.
    The idea that being an independent country in a similar manner to Australia amd Canada is as unobtainable as communist utopia is plainly nonsense. This is why Remainers must concentrate on attacking the process rather than the end state. As soon as the process is over and the debate is fully independent UK vs semi-autonomous EU member, they will be on the wrong side of all the arguments again. It also explains why they are trying to set up a vassal state status rather than full auonomy.
    The idea that *the UK* can be such a country is indeed unobtainable. If you want to redraw the boundaries then be honest about it.

    Even then, the geopolitical and historical position of Britain is quite different, and were we to try to go it alone there is no good reason to think it would have a positive outcome. At the end of the day we are Europeans and we have never been able to stand aloof from European politics, however much we might have wanted to. Leaving the main political framework of Europe, that has proven its resiliency and is here to stay, so that we can sit in splendid isolation is simply a bad idea.
    Nothing lasts forever. Not the EU, UK, or anything. And it’s definitely not here to stay in it’s present form. It’s morphing into a more integrated body, which is why we left.
    We haven't left yet, and the EU has been on that journey all the while we've been a member.

    It's true that nothing lasts forever, but I'd give the EU at least another century.
    I would expect nothing less from your good self but it is not possible to know if the EU will last the next few years let alone 100
    People have been predicting the imminent demise of the EU since 2008 and it's not come close. Support across most of the continent is strong, and particularly within the political class. Even if one or two countries cause real difficulties by electing populist, nationalist governments, it wouldn't be the sort of thing that the EU hasn't faced in the past and whether by exclusion or endurance, would likely overcome them. It'd be a blow to the EU's pride and momentum but that might be no bad thing anyway,
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2018

    Funny old World Cup when you can look forward to Iceland v Nigeria.....

    Iceland are slight favourites with Betfair.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/football/market/1.137597547
    https://www.betfair.com/sport/football/event?eventId=28500624
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 16,102

    Elliot said:

    Scott_P said:
    Brexit is like communism - attractive in theory but impossible to implement in the way its adherents promised.
    The idea that being an independent country in a similar manner to Australia amd Canada is as unobtainable as communist utopia is plainly nonsense. This is why Remainers must concentrate on attacking the process rather than the end state. As soon as the process is over and the debate is fully independent UK vs semi-autonomous EU member, they will be on the wrong side of all the arguments again. It also explains why they are trying to set up a vassal state status rather than full auonomy.
    The idea that *the UK* can be such a country is indeed unobtainable. If you want to redraw the boundaries then be honest about it.

    Even then, the geopolitical and historical position of Britain is quite different, and were we to try to go it alone there is no good reason to think it would have a positive outcome. At the end of the day we are Europeans and we have never been able to stand aloof from European politics, however much we might have wanted to. Leaving the main political framework of Europe, that has proven its resiliency and is here to stay, so that we can sit in splendid isolation is simply a bad idea.
    We have managed to stand alone in terms of political independence for the overwhelming majority of our history. Your belief that we need to be part of the EU political project to survive is simply laughable.
    'Survival' is a remarkably low bar in all but the most extreme of circumstances, which these are not.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,612
    surby said:

    Survation missed the obvious supplementary question to those who believe there will be a Brexit dividend: do you believe in Santa Claus ?

    Don't you like the public response then
  • surbysurby Posts: 1,227

    Contrary to all the media reports and the full on remainers delight, Airbus’s statement is a warning not just to the UK but the EU 27 as well.


    Speaking to Sky News the company’s senior vice president Katherine Bennett said

    ‘In the event of a no deal we would see chaos at the borders

    Our parts move across the borders sometimes up to two or three times perhaps going into a satellite that we build here in the UK or the wings we make here in the UK

    We don’t want them to be affected by friction at the borders’

    She said

    ‘Airbus was running out of patience and went on to say the EU member states as well as the UK, need to understand the importance of the Airbus works

    It is putting pressure on all sides, it is not just the UK she said

    We are an international business and the EU27 need to understand the importance of integration and the way we work’


    So the report is a warning to both sides to get their act together, pity the emphasis today is all ante the UK from large and influential groups who want Brexit stopped rather than a fair comment piece by Airbus

    Only one country is leaving the EU. If the wings were made in France there would be no need of a frictionless border as there would not be one.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 23,521

    RobD said:

    Elliot said:

    Scott_P said:
    Brexit is like communism - attractive in theory but impossible to implement in the way its adherents promised.
    The idea that being an independent country in a similar manner to Australia amd Canada is as unobtainable as communist utopia is plainly nonsense. This is why Remainers must concentrate on attacking the process rather than the end state. As soon as the process is over and the debate is fully independent UK vs semi-autonomous EU member, they will be on the wrong side of all the arguments again. It also explains why they are trying to set up a vassal state status rather than full auonomy.
    The idea that *the UK* can be such a country is indeed unobtainable. If you want to redraw the boundaries then be honest about it.

    Even then, the geopolitical and historical position of Britain is quite different, and were we to try to go it alone there is no good reason to think it would have a positive outcome. At the end of the day we are Europeans and we have never been able to stand aloof from European politics, however much we might have wanted to. Leaving the main political framework of Europe, that has proven its resiliency and is here to stay, so that we can sit in splendid isolation is simply a bad idea.
    Nothing lasts forever. Not the EU, UK, or anything. And it’s definitely not here to stay in it’s present form. It’s morphing into a more integrated body, which is why we left.
    We haven't left yet, and the EU has been on that journey all the while we've been a member.

    It's true that nothing lasts forever, but I'd give the EU at least another century.
    I would expect nothing less from your good self but it is not possible to know if the EU will last the next few years let alone 100
    People have been predicting the imminent demise of the EU since 2008 and it's not come close. Support across most of the continent is strong, and particularly within the political class. Even if one or two countries cause real difficulties by electing populist, nationalist governments, it wouldn't be the sort of thing that the EU hasn't faced in the past and whether by exclusion or endurance, would likely overcome them. It'd be a blow to the EU's pride and momentum but that might be no bad thing anyway,
    I don't believe the EU will collapse but it may well shed a few more members if it continues on its current path.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,162
    surby said:

    Contrary to all the media reports and the full on remainers delight, Airbus’s statement is a warning not just to the UK but the EU 27 as well.


    Speaking to Sky News the company’s senior vice president Katherine Bennett said

    ‘In the event of a no deal we would see chaos at the borders

    Our parts move across the borders sometimes up to two or three times perhaps going into a satellite that we build here in the UK or the wings we make here in the UK

    We don’t want them to be affected by friction at the borders’

    She said

    ‘Airbus was running out of patience and went on to say the EU member states as well as the UK, need to understand the importance of the Airbus works

    It is putting pressure on all sides, it is not just the UK she said

    We are an international business and the EU27 need to understand the importance of integration and the way we work’


    So the report is a warning to both sides to get their act together, pity the emphasis today is all ante the UK from large and influential groups who want Brexit stopped rather than a fair comment piece by Airbus

    Only one country is leaving the EU. If the wings were made in France there would be no need of a frictionless border as there would not be one.
    I thought they were talking about moving it to China/US?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:
    People believing what they want to believe at the drop of a hat before the evidence is in. Both sides are increasingly guilty of it.
This discussion has been closed.