politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sajid Javid moves to second favourite to succeed Theresa May
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sajid Javid moves to second favourite to succeed Theresa May
Following a glowing write-up by Fraser Nelson in The Telegraph this morning there’s been a lot of been a fair bit of betting interest in the Home Secretary for next Conservative leader.
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And no one is home to fix it.
(Or have I missed something important???)
But there are also banned PB Remainers (I think they're remain !)
James Kelly
Mick Pork
The Right Reverend Stuart Campbell
Can anyone spot the connection between them
Well played Mike.
"She could have caused make .." "She could, of course, make .."
"She's been incredible sex survivor.." "She's been incredible ???? survivor"
Bleurgh.
Though I tend not to opine on Brexit, as I feel I am not changing anyone's views anytime soon, and am not particularly passionate about my own.
I have heard nothing to convince me I made the wrong choice though.
I'm a social liberal. I'm an internationalist. I'm a free marketeer. I believe (vehemently) in looking after the poorest in society. I'm instinctively wary of anything anti-democratic; anything that distances a democratic voice further away from the dispossessed and nearer to the elites. Hence my dislike of the EU.
Incidentally, I think the idea of a union of lots of countries is GREAT. I just think the EU has become bloated and elitist and thinks it knows best (when it doesn't). They've put their political ideology before the people of Greece and they will put the political ideology before a sensible deal over Brexit.
Many disagree with me, but that's cool.
I'll get my coats .. of arms ..
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-44258461
Meanwhile Mrs May carries on, if not serenely, then without serious challenge.
But then. SACRILEGE ALERT.
I voted for Blair!
I was in Majorca during last year's GE so didn't vote. And I'll admit I thought May would win a 50 seat majority even despite a shite campaign.
I never liked Brown. I thought he was a covetous bully. I don't like May. I think she's an uncurious, cautious non-entity.
I didn't mind Ed Miliband because he had ideas. I like people with ideas. I liked David Laws and Norman Lamb. I like Michael Gove. I liked Ken Clarke. I always liked Alan Johnson (although I doubt he would've had the skills to be PM).
I think Ruth Davidson would be a magnificent PM. Her ideas chime with mine. She's very articulate and charming and funny. Very likeable, very smart; very persuasive.
My vote is for bear chested mounted on a white charger, a la Putin, whilst carrying a pair of pearl handled six shooters and declaring "make my day punks" to the assembled fourth estate.
Let's hear it for the baldies!
http://www.latimes.com/
Amazing work guys. Well done. Congratulations.
[face-slow_handclap)
Of course as the number of MPs who vote for the winner of ballot increases past 106 the number required to finish second actually reduces. So for example if the winner got 150 MP votes the number presently required by the runner up would fall to only 84 votes.
Off dozens of mailing lists, some harking back a decade or more.
The EU takes privacy seriously. The US, not so much.
The risk Mogg may replace May is clearly another factor keeping May in place for many Tory MPs
Wasn't Stuart Dickson another SNAT Remainer who was banned ?
I noticed that HHemmelig was also banned yesterday and he voted Remain.
I find it somewhat disturbing how often I agree with the comments of Sandy, Wulfrun Phil and Old Labour.
I think Jonathan and YDoethur voted Remain and MyBurningEyes voted Leave.
And is Anazina really the same person as Bobajob ?
Of course also in JRM's favour is he is chairman of the ERG who have an undeclared membership number but lies somewhere between 60 - 80 members, and then it will all be down to who out of Gove, Johnson, and JRM get least votes initially and are therefore removed and who they then back for leader. My feeling is that JRM will be seen by many non-committed MPs who do not want Johnson or Gove as leader and PM will plum for JRM knowing that he would crucify Corbyn, et al, and at least be the most likely to bring a Conservative majority at the next election. (I also happen to know that presently many 'party members' are letting their MPs know their choice.)
Theresa May should have taken the risk and offered JRM a Cabinet post, but instead she fears him, and when the PM fears someone then you know there must be something good about that person. LOL
So remainer MPs will know they are wasting their time voting for a remainer candidate. They will need to vote tactically for a leaver so that there are TWO leaver candidates, and try to squeeze out the least desirable (assume Rees Mogg). They need to collude and split say 90 for Gove and 90 for Johnson. Even if the 130 leavers go heavily for Rees-Mogg, then Gove and Johnson should pick up at least 16 votes each out of the 130. So the party members will have to choose between Gove and Johnson.
I was and am a Remainer.
I am also however a democrat and a realist, two ways that puts me seriously at odds with the EU and the current
fascist caballeadership of the Commission and their more hysterical and frankly less intelligent supporters on here. I accept we are leaving and there is nothing I can do to stop it.I am also fuming at the EU who out of sheer bone-headed stupidity are making it virtually impossible for us to (a) leave without causing vast damage to everyone including them and (b) making it damn near impossible for us to rejoin should we later wish to do so.
I also don't think Barnier, a man who was illegally appointed to his post before being cravenly confirmed by the spineless leaders of the EU governments, has a long track record of breaking laws that don't suit him and is frankly neither very intelligent or very experienced should in any way be involved in negotiations, and that goes double for Juncker and Selmayr who are not just demonstrably morally and intellectually unfit to hold any sort of public office but shouldn't according to EU law even be in the room at all during negotiations much less speaking during them. They have resulted, given our negotiators are equally useless, in the predictable car crash.
However, that still doesn't make the economic damage which undoubtedly tip Europe (rather than us) further towards Fascism worth the game. If there were a second referendum with the option to withdraw A50, I'd vote for it. But since there isn't time for a second referendum and since notwithstanding the lies of the Blairite stooge who wrote it there is no way of withdrawing A50, I won't, and I would rather make the best of the world as it is than the world as I'd like it to be.
Edit: OK Sorry thought you voted to leave
Do you have to be totally uncritical of the very many serious flaws and weaknesses of the EU before you are accepted as a Remainer? Because if so pretty well the entire bloody continent outside Luxembourg would vote Leave!
HurstLlama was a Leaver - anyone know what's happened to him ?
He's still on Twitter:
https://www.twitter.com/hurstllama
I know you'll think I'm mad, but I have tiny stake on Owen Patterson, and a pretty small stake on one other fairly anonymous back-bencher.
I think it's the most fascinating of markets.
In normal times that crown would have gone to the Labour leadership market - I'll almost be sorry to see Corbyn go in that such a fascinating market will be lost. There's some extraordinary prices at which I've traded on Betfair (mostly, but not exclusively, extraordinary in my favour. I must have got nervous at some point as I backed Angela Eagle at avg odds of 5.26.. . In hindsight, what on earth was I thinking!)
So, secure 90-95 MPs and you are at the races.
Suffice to say, there are candidates who might struggle to secure 130 MPs, but who would have a decent tilt at 95.
An excellent article on the rail problems 'down south':
https://www.londonreconnections.com/2018/the-cicadas-take-flight-explaining-the-may-timetable-changes/
https://mobile.twitter.com/WeeMissBea/status/1000046465182466048/photo/1
TSE 65K
Pulpstar 45K
MorrisDancer 42K
HYUFD 40K
Scott_P 36K
RobD 32K
Kle4 30K
CarlottaVance 28K
FrancisUrquhart 28K
Southam Observer 26K
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/999732448455024640?s=19
Then again, my Irish colleague thinks the shy vote in this referendum will be for repeal, because of the zealotry of the antis.
I'd expect the shy vote to be No, as it's the politically incorrect option.
The key question is whether given demographic change and hopefully some serious reform of the EU we will be able to rejoin in ten years, which would make the votes of people in their 30s (like me) probably more significant.
At the moment the EU appear to be trying to make it impossible for us to do so. This is short-sighted, stupid, wouldn't be done by anyone with the brains of a mouse, and therefore entirely typical of the actions of the Brussels elite.
BBC suggesting turnout a couple of hours ago "was higher than at the same stage of the country's referendum on same-sex marriage and its most recent general election"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44241521
Main count tomorrow