politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With Priti Patel flying in from Kenya her situation and the go

TheScreamingEagles said:

Someone's overcompensating

https://twitter.com/jlsinc/status/928246919272509442

MarqueeMark said:

Sandpit said:

Alistair said:

Next con leader market is mental.

£51 quid was matched on Ruth Davidson at evens! Who on earth would back that?

Someone who doesn’t properly understand the rules of the contest?

Or someone who thinks there's some by-elections coming up....

Verulamius said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Jonathan said:

AndyJS said:

"Cambridge students ‘horrified’ by hard work claims Professor Eugene Terentjev"

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/cambridge-students-horrified-by-hard-work-claims-professor-eugene-terentjev-7t9f8jt6l

Cambridge is a doss.

Didn't TSE and Nick Griffin go to Cambridge?

Downing College for Nick Griffin I think.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Someone's overcompensating

https://twitter.com/jlsinc/status/928246919272509442

AlsoIndigo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Someone's overcompensating

https://twitter.com/jlsinc/status/928246919272509442

Presumably in response to this sort of idiocy

Panellists were banned from wearing poppies on the BBC's long-running show Have I Got News For You, it has been revealed.
Guests appearing on the programme last Friday were told that they were not allowed on air if they wore a poppy, which critics described as an 'outrageous' move.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5057939/Journalist-ordered-poppy-BBC-show.html

MarqueeMark said:

Sandpit said:

Alistair said:

Next con leader market is mental.

£51 quid was matched on Ruth Davidson at evens! Who on earth would back that?

Someone who doesn’t properly understand the rules of the contest?

Or someone who thinks there's some by-elections coming up....

TheScreamingEagles said:

What was I saying last night....

https://twitter.com/henrymance/status/928315294644428801

Sunil_Prasannan said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

IanB2 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

logical_song said:

Never mind fake news, this is fake government
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/11/never-mind-fake-news-this-is-fake-government/

contains this quote: "This is not Watergate, of course, and Brexit must happen because that is what the people have commanded."

The people didn't command it they tentatively suggested it by under 4%.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/18/the-nearest-run-thing/

I keep seeing comments on PB.com, and the wider MSM, about the EU Referendum being a close result, with the implication that it was the closest referendum result in human history, and that because it was such a narrow win for LEAVE, that somehow that made the result illegitimate. Perhaps I exaggerate with the previous sentence, but you know what I mean!

Self evidently the strength of a mandate relates to its size, in the same way that a government with a big majority is taken more seriously and has a stronger mandate than one with a wafer thin one.

So would you abolish the Welsh Assembly then?

I think you are missing the point.

Why? The 1997 Welsh referendum was 50.3% YES, 49.7% NO, much tighter than EURef.

By your logic, we should not have invoked a Welsh Assembly in 1999.

I invite most PB'ers to skip this post, but here it is for you, Sunil, nice and clear:

Scenario 1: everyone in Wales except Person A votes for the Assembly, a majority of 99.99...% surpassing even Albanian norms. After a while Person A says the Assembly isn't a good idea and starts a campaign against it.

Scenario 2: the vote for the Assembly goes through by a single vote. After a while Person B, who voted for it, says it isn't a good idea and s/he has changed their mind, and starts a campaign against it.

Self evidently Person B and their arguments are going to be taken a lot more seriously and credibly than Person A, who will probably become a figure of fun.

Every other result lies on a continuum between Scenarios 1 and 2.

The other close result I listed was Quebec 1995 - "NO (to Independence)" won by 1.2%, again, a tighter margin than EURef.

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:

anothernick said:

HYUFD said:

FF43 said:

HYUFD said:

The single market obviously means uncontrolled free movement which also means failing to respect the Leave vote fully and the millions of working class Leave voters who voted Leave to reduce immigration.

So that is clearly a non starter at this time. As is obviously the EU given the Leave victory.

o.

Corbyn has made clear he won't back EEA permanently either to keep the 37% of Labour Leavers and 20% of UKIP voters he won on board and to ensure he can implement a socialist agenda.

Only the LDs and SNP and Greens back permanent single market membership and they got 7% and under 5% and 1% in June across the UK respectively.

If Labour comes to power between now and Brexit - quite a likely scenario at the rate we're going - it will say the Tories have royally f*cked up the Brexit process and the only way we can avoid a disastrous crash out is to accept EEA for a "transitional" period.

When the fuss has died down it will become clear that nobody really wants to transition any further - the UK will still face a cliff edge if it exits the EEA and the EU will have no reason to move since it will have lost the troublesome Brits from the political structure and they will still be paying in to the budget.

And the Tories will be blamed by everyone.

Win win really.

If it is Labour which ends up leaving EU immigration uncontrolled to stay permanently in the EEA it is lose lose for them with their white working class vote

A Corbyn victory is likely to hugely reduce net immigration. It might even go negative. Much of the WWC will be happy with that and controls will not be needed.

If the economy crashes yes through Corbynite tax and spend and nationalise yes, though that might leave Labour with a few other problems as well

It would crash primarily for high-earners in the private sector and those with property portfolios - neither group being likely to vote for Corbyn in the first place.

His coalition of public sector workers, students, the low paid, ethnic groups and socialist WWC would be protected, for a while at least.

DM_Andy said:

Telegraph has a very strong defence from Patel's ally http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/08/priti-patel-allies-turn-no-10-faces-sack-ordered-back-africa/

"She [Priti] is going to be pretty angry if she is sacked and she could do some pretty hard damage to Downing Street. No 10 is being naive, the Prime Minister will create an even bigger problem for herself if she sacks Priti."

If Priti doesn't distance herself from that smartish, then May surely has no choice but to sack her. The Secretary of State for International Development can't make themselves unsackable.

DM_Andy said:

Telegraph has a very strong defence from Patel's ally http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/08/priti-patel-allies-turn-no-10-faces-sack-ordered-back-africa/

"She [Priti] is going to be pretty angry if she is sacked and she could do some pretty hard damage to Downing Street. No 10 is being naive, the Prime Minister will create an even bigger problem for herself if she sacks Priti."

If Priti doesn't distance herself from that smartish, then May surely has no choice but to sack her. The Secretary of State for International Development can't make themselves unsackable.

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:

HHemmelig said:

HYUFD said:

anothernick said:

HYUFD said:

FF43 said:

HYUFD said:

The single market obviously means uncontrolled free movement which also means failing to respect the Leave vote fully and the millions of working class Leave voters who voted Leave to reduce immigration.

So that is clearly a non starter at this time. As is obviously the EU given the Leave victory.

o.

Corbyn has made clear he won't back EEA permanently either to keep the 37% of Labour Leavers and 20% of UKIP voters he won on board and to ensure he can implement a socialist agenda.

Only the LDs and SNP and Greens back permanent single market membership and they got 7% and under 5% and 1% in June across the UK respectively.

If Labour comes to power between now and Brexit - quite a likely scenario at the rate we're going - it will say the Tories have royally f*cked up the Brexit process and the only way we can avoid a disastrous crash out is to accept EEA for a "transitional" period.

When the fuss has died down it will become clear that nobody really wants to transition any further - the UK will still face a cliff edge if it exits the EEA and the EU will have no reason to move since it will have lost the troublesome Brits from the political structure and they will still be paying in to the budget.

And the Tories will be blamed by everyone.

Win win really.

If it is Labour which ends up leaving EU immigration uncontrolled to stay permanently in the EEA it is lose lose for them with their white working class vote

A Corbyn victory is likely to hugely reduce net immigration. It might even go negative. Much of the WWC will be happy with that and controls will not be needed.

If the economy crashes yes through Corbynite tax and spend and nationalise yes, though that might leave Labour with a few other problems as well

It would crash primarily for high-earners in the private sector and those with property portfolios - neither group being likely to vote for Corbyn in the first place.

His coalition of public sector workers, students, the low paid, ethnic groups and socialist WWC would be protected, for a while at least.

MarqueeMark said:

Post of International Development Secretary - Priti vacant?

RochdalePioneers said:

The important bit with the Southern story is the end of Driver Only Operation. You can't operate a packed 8 or 12 car unit with no-one on the staff other than the driver. When it breaks down and the driver goes off to phone or place detonators or whatever you've got a thousand people left by themselves on a stranded train. The guard is a safety critical role regardless of whether they open doors or check tickets.

The government don't seem to have a clue at the moment - that dipshit Grayling seems to be channelling Peter Mannion's App Britain initiative. Apparently a "digital railway" can replace things like capacity and electrification on Trans-Pennine...

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

The important bit with the Southern story is the end of Driver Only Operation. You can't operate a packed 8 or 12 car unit with no-one on the staff other than the driver. When it breaks down and the driver goes off to phone or place detonators or whatever you've got a thousand people left by themselves on a stranded train. The guard is a safety critical role regardless of whether they open doors or check tickets.

The government don't seem to have a clue at the moment - that dipshit Grayling seems to be channelling Peter Mannion's App Britain initiative. Apparently a "digital railway" can replace things like capacity and electrification on Trans-Pennine...

I was on the Vancouver metro a couple of months ago and the sysrem is completely automated with driverless trains and runs as smooth as clockwork. That is the future

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

The important bit with the Southern story is the end of Driver Only Operation. You can't operate a packed 8 or 12 car unit with no-one on the staff other than the driver. When it breaks down and the driver goes off to phone or place detonators or whatever you've got a thousand people left by themselves on a stranded train. The guard is a safety critical role regardless of whether they open doors or check tickets.

The government don't seem to have a clue at the moment - that dipshit Grayling seems to be channelling Peter Mannion's App Britain initiative. Apparently a "digital railway" can replace things like capacity and electrification on Trans-Pennine...

I was on the Vancouver metro a couple of months ago and the sysrem is completely automated with driverless trains and runs as smooth as clockwork. That is the future

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/928326361864908800

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

The important bit with the Southern story is the end of Driver Only Operation. You can't operate a packed 8 or 12 car unit with no-one on the staff other than the driver. When it breaks down and the driver goes off to phone or place detonators or whatever you've got a thousand people left by themselves on a stranded train. The guard is a safety critical role regardless of whether they open doors or check tickets.

The government don't seem to have a clue at the moment - that dipshit Grayling seems to be channelling Peter Mannion's App Britain initiative. Apparently a "digital railway" can replace things like capacity and electrification on Trans-Pennine...

I was on the Vancouver metro a couple of months ago and the sysrem is completely automated with driverless trains and runs as smooth as clockwork. That is the future

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/928326361864908800

Big_G_NorthWales said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/928326361864908800

That is the right think to do and if she is sensible keeps the door open for her to return at a later date

Richard_Nabavi said:

RochdalePioneers said:

The important bit with the Southern story is the end of Driver Only Operation. You can't operate a packed 8 or 12 car unit with no-one on the staff other than the driver. When it breaks down and the driver goes off to phone or place detonators or whatever you've got a thousand people left by themselves on a stranded train. The guard is a safety critical role regardless of whether they open doors or check tickets.

And yet for years we have had driver-only trains operating perfectly satisfactorily on other lines

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

The important bit with the Southern story is the end of Driver Only Operation. You can't operate a packed 8 or 12 car unit with no-one on the staff other than the driver. When it breaks down and the driver goes off to phone or place detonators or whatever you've got a thousand people left by themselves on a stranded train. The guard is a safety critical role regardless of whether they open doors or check tickets.

The government don't seem to have a clue at the moment - that dipshit Grayling seems to be channelling Peter Mannion's App Britain initiative. Apparently a "digital railway" can replace things like capacity and electrification on Trans-Pennine...

I was on the Vancouver metro a couple of months ago and the sysrem is completely automated with driverless trains and runs as smooth as clockwork. That is the future

Thats fine for self contained systems where its the same kind of train running on a closed environment. A main line railway with multiple junctions multiple types of train including freight - you can't automate that and the comparison is only vaguely relevant because train.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mrs C, makes me wonder if someone will make an app for political resignations and firings. Sackr, perhaps?

Sandpit said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

The important bit with the Southern story is the end of Driver Only Operation. You can't operate a packed 8 or 12 car unit with no-one on the staff other than the driver. When it breaks down and the driver goes off to phone or place detonators or whatever you've got a thousand people left by themselves on a stranded train. The guard is a safety critical role regardless of whether they open doors or check tickets.

The government don't seem to have a clue at the moment - that dipshit Grayling seems to be channelling Peter Mannion's App Britain initiative. Apparently a "digital railway" can replace things like capacity and electrification on Trans-Pennine...

I was on the Vancouver metro a couple of months ago and the sysrem is completely automated with driverless trains and runs as smooth as clockwork. That is the future

Thats fine for self contained systems where its the same kind of train running on a closed environment. A main line railway with multiple junctions multiple types of train including freight - you can't automate that and the comparison is only vaguely relevant because train.

Agree with that. Dubai Metro is, like Vancouver, all modern and fully automated light rail. A main rail line is a very different beast though, and difficult to automate even if you were designing it from scratch.

RochdalePioneers said:

The important bit with the Southern story is the end of Driver Only Operation. You can't operate a packed 8 or 12 car unit with no-one on the staff other than the driver. When it breaks down and the driver goes off to phone or place detonators or whatever you've got a thousand people left by themselves on a stranded train. The guard is a safety critical role regardless of whether they open doors or check tickets.

The government don't seem to have a clue at the moment - that dipshit Grayling seems to be channelling Peter Mannion's App Britain initiative. Apparently a "digital railway" can replace things like capacity and electrification on Trans-Pennine...

IanB2 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Post of International Development Secretary - Priti vacant?

Iain Dale at 4pm?

Richard_Nabavi said:

RochdalePioneers said:

The important bit with the Southern story is the end of Driver Only Operation. You can't operate a packed 8 or 12 car unit with no-one on the staff other than the driver. When it breaks down and the driver goes off to phone or place detonators or whatever you've got a thousand people left by themselves on a stranded train. The guard is a safety critical role regardless of whether they open doors or check tickets.

And yet for years we have had driver-only trains operating perfectly satisfactorily on other lines.

In any case, a lot of Southern trains, such as the one I caught today, have about 15 passengers on them.

Jonathan said:

Is anyone following Pru Leith. She will know who is up next for DfID.

Roger said:

Jonathan said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

RochdalePioneers said:

The important bit with the Southern story is the end of Driver Only Operation. You can't operate a packed 8 or 12 car unit with no-one on the staff other than the driver. When it breaks down and the driver goes off to phone or place detonators or whatever you've got a thousand people left by themselves on a stranded train. The guard is a safety critical role regardless of whether they open doors or check tickets.

And yet for years we have had driver-only trains operating perfectly satisfactorily on other lines.

In any case, a lot of Southern trains, such as the one I caught today, have about 15 passengers on them.

Never understood why Tories so keen on reducing customer service.

I know you don't like May but have you thought of the possible alternatives? Leadsom Johnson Hunt Gove or Fox. She's got to be better than any of them

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/Daniel_Sugarman/status/928333331812552706

Pong said:

Barnesian said:

May looks pretty grim arriving at Downing Street a minute ago.

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/624/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2017/11/8/8deda3d6-5293-47af-99fc-ce7a88a0106e.jpg

Very thatcher-end-of-days

Roger said:

Sandpit said:

Roger said:

Sandpit said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RochdalePioneers said:

The important bit with the Southern story is the end of Driver Only Operation. You can't operate a packed 8 or 12 car unit with no-one on the staff other than the driver. When it breaks down and the driver goes off to phone or place detonators or whatever you've got a thousand people left by themselves on a stranded train. The guard is a safety critical role regardless of whether they open doors or check tickets.

The government don't seem to have a clue at the moment - that dipshit Grayling seems to be channelling Peter Mannion's App Britain initiative. Apparently a "digital railway" can replace things like capacity and electrification on Trans-Pennine...

I was on the Vancouver metro a couple of months ago and the sysrem is completely automated with driverless trains and runs as smooth as clockwork. That is the future

Thats fine for self contained systems where its the same kind of train running on a closed environment. A main line railway with multiple junctions multiple types of train including freight - you can't automate that and the comparison is only vaguely relevant because train.

Agree with that. Dubai Metro is, like Vancouver, all modern and fully automated light rail. A main rail line is a very different beast though, and difficult to automate even if you were designing it from scratch.

When was that put in. I was there eight years ago and it wasn't obvious.

Opened 09/09/09, runs on a viaduct right along the main Shk Zayed Rd for about 30km, but underground through the middle of the city. They even have a first class section
https://www.rta.ae/links/rail/en/about-metro.html

I must have just missed it. It probably needed it. The traffic got pretty busy round rush hour.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Jonathan said:

AndyJS said:

"Cambridge students ‘horrified’ by hard work claims Professor Eugene Terentjev"

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/cambridge-students-horrified-by-hard-work-claims-professor-eugene-terentjev-7t9f8jt6l

Cambridge is a doss.

Didn't TSE and Nick Griffin go to Cambridge?

Barnesian said:

May looks pretty grim arriving at Downing Street a minute ago.

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/624/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2017/11/8/8deda3d6-5293-47af-99fc-ce7a88a0106e.jpg

JosiasJessop said:

'Guards' are an anachronism on many lines. A throwback to the dieselisation program.

"You can't operate a packed 8 or 12 car unit with no-one on the staff other than the driver."

Yes, you clearly can, because it is done. After all, the guard can only be in one of those 8 or 12 units at one, and if it's full and he's at one end he can do bu**er all at the other end.

NickPalmer said:

JosiasJessop said:

'Guards' are an anachronism on many lines. A throwback to the dieselisation program.

"You can't operate a packed 8 or 12 car unit with no-one on the staff other than the driver."

Yes, you clearly can, because it is done. After all, the guard can only be in one of those 8 or 12 units at one, and if it's full and he's at one end he can do bu**er all at the other end.

What is the proportion of total cost of train operation that train companies save by not having guards? They are I'd think good to have but not critical; on the other hand, are they a significan extra cost?

dr_spyn said:

Sacked, resigned or in post?

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/928337218191622147

dr_spyn said:

Sacked, resigned or in post?

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/928337218191622147