politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first local by election since GE17 – the results
Comments
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Why economic ruinBromptonaut said:
If it's that or economic ruin - yes.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Genuinely do you think the population will accept an outside jurisdiction for some of it's ciitizensBromptonaut said:
We'll see.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Can you imagine that the ECJ can rule on some UK citizens rights over and above our Supreme Court.Bromptonaut said:
Because then they'll give us a trade deal.Nemtynakht said:Can anyone explain the reason why we would want ECJ to have jurisdiction. Is there any benefit to us? Why is Corbyn enthusiastic?
The Country will just not accept it0 -
Broad sunlit uplands, eh?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why economic ruinBromptonaut said:
If it's that or economic ruin - yes.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Genuinely do you think the population will accept an outside jurisdiction for some of it's ciitizensBromptonaut said:
We'll see.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Can you imagine that the ECJ can rule on some UK citizens rights over and above our Supreme Court.Bromptonaut said:
Because then they'll give us a trade deal.Nemtynakht said:Can anyone explain the reason why we would want ECJ to have jurisdiction. Is there any benefit to us? Why is Corbyn enthusiastic?
The Country will just not accept it0 -
Ah, so back to Project Fear?Bromptonaut said:
If it's that or economic ruin - yes.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Genuinely do you think the population will accept an outside jurisdiction for some of it's ciitizensBromptonaut said:
We'll see.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Can you imagine that the ECJ can rule on some UK citizens rights over and above our Supreme Court.Bromptonaut said:
Because then they'll give us a trade deal.Nemtynakht said:Can anyone explain the reason why we would want ECJ to have jurisdiction. Is there any benefit to us? Why is Corbyn enthusiastic?
The Country will just not accept it0 -
I have many reservations but the likely end result will be a soft Brexit - not economic ruin or sunny uplandsBromptonaut said:
Broad sunlit uplands, eh?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why economic ruinBromptonaut said:
If it's that or economic ruin - yes.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Genuinely do you think the population will accept an outside jurisdiction for some of it's ciitizensBromptonaut said:
We'll see.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Can you imagine that the ECJ can rule on some UK citizens rights over and above our Supreme Court.Bromptonaut said:
Because then they'll give us a trade deal.Nemtynakht said:Can anyone explain the reason why we would want ECJ to have jurisdiction. Is there any benefit to us? Why is Corbyn enthusiastic?
The Country will just not accept it0 -
Like how Canada has to have the ECJ jurisdiction in order to get a trade deal?Bromptonaut said:
Because then they'll give us a trade deal.Nemtynakht said:Can anyone explain the reason why we would want ECJ to have jurisdiction. Is there any benefit to us? Why is Corbyn enthusiastic?
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Hello all.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.0 -
I struggle to see how keeping Theresa May as PM is in the national interest.
Anybody disagree?0 -
I think we might be missing the revolution in politics amongst the young. The only image i have of the YC's
Is of an organisation where you met your future spouse and was the main social scene outside of the rugby
and tennis club. Inmuch of rural england this is still probably true. What have the tories offered the younger generation to make them vote for the? The economic competance claim is seriously tarnished and they need some forward looking policies0 -
The problem with this is that Remain (on the previous terms) is no longer an option, so can't be in a second referendum. The only possible second referendums are Deal or No Deal - or Deal or Full Membership (including the euro and Schengen).RoyalBlue said:Hello all.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.0 -
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe Canada has 3m EU citizens who were free to choose to live there without restriction, and under the protection of the ECJ?Philip_Thompson said:
Like how Canada has to have the ECJ jurisdiction in order to get a trade deal?Bromptonaut said:
Because then they'll give us a trade deal.Nemtynakht said:Can anyone explain the reason why we would want ECJ to have jurisdiction. Is there any benefit to us? Why is Corbyn enthusiastic?
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Nick Palmer talks very positively about his experiences growing up in a high-rise, although not in the UK.AnneJGP said:
I've been wondering whether this might lead to a re-think on housing people in high rise buildings. Maybe we'll see a shift away from that policy. Cost of upgrading is bound to enter into the equation.JosiasJessop said:
I doubt it would be billions for replacement of the cladding systems. The entire refit of the Grenfell tower was £8.7 million, and according to Wiki the cladding part of the work cost £2.6 million. Given that it might just be a part-for-part replacement (unless they need to fix some form of structural 'chimney' effect) it should be a fairly straightforward job (or as straightforward as working at height can be).Big_G_NorthWales said:The extent of the use of this cladding and it's removal could cost the Country many countless billions.
Big tax rises look inevitable
If we take a cost of £2 million to replace the cladding, then 500 buildings could be done for a billion. Although having skilled people and kit to do the work might be a problem: they need to ensure the work's done properly, even if it means it takes time for them to be done.
Now, if they decide that grandfather rights for things like sprinklers in high-rise buildings are to be voided, then it may well get into billions.
As a child, I used to live in a block of maisonettes - only 2 x 2-storey 'houses' on top of each other - and I never went to bed free from fear. Happily we were only there 3 years.
High-rise living (or at least low-rise blocks of flats) are an obvious solution to any housing problems we may or may not have. Sadly past experiences of them in this country are not uniformly positive, and this fire will hardly help their image.0 -
Who should be PM? We just had a general election which she won.Pong said:I struggle to see how keeping Theresa May as PM is in the national interest.
Anybody disagree?0 -
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?RoyalBlue said:Hello all.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.
0 -
I disagree. The prize to the EU of avoiding the secession of a Member State, whilst humiliating the one that tried is immense. They would not put it at risk by eliminating the opt-outs we already have.ThreeQuidder said:
The problem with this is that Remain (on the previous terms) is no longer an option, so can't be in a second referendum. The only possible second referendums are Deal or No Deal - or Deal or Full Membership (including the euro and Schengen).RoyalBlue said:Hello all.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
Even so, the drive to full participation would begin almost instantly.0 -
Why?ThreeQuidder said:
The problem with this is that Remain (on the previous terms) is no longer an option, so can't be in a second referendum. The only possible second referendums are Deal or No Deal - or Deal or Full Membership (including the euro and Schengen).RoyalBlue said:Hello all.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.0 -
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.another_richard said:
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?RoyalBlue said:Hello all.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.0 -
Good point - although if scaffolding was only needed for the cladding work, then it's possible the scaffolding costs were part of that contract.Nemtynakht said:
I wouldn't necessarily trust he costs by item. It is normal practice to split out scaffolding costs.JosiasJessop said:
I doubt it would be billions for replacement of the cladding systems. The entire refit of the Grenfell tower was £8.7 million, and according to Wiki the cladding part of the work cost £2.6 million. Given that it might just be a part-for-part replacement (unless they need to fix some form of structural 'chimney' effect) it should be a fairly straightforward job (or as straightforward as working at height can be).Big_G_NorthWales said:The extent of the use of this cladding and it's removal could cost the Country many countless billions.
Big tax rises look inevitable
If we take a cost of £2 million to replace the cladding, then 500 buildings could be done for a billion. Although having skilled people and kit to do the work might be a problem: they need to ensure the work's done properly, even if it means it takes time for them to be done.
Now, if they decide that grandfather rights for things like sprinklers in high-rise buildings are to be voided, then it may well get into billions.
That brings up an irrelevant question, but one that interests me ('cos I'm sad): how did they do the cladding work? Was it scaffolded from the ground up, 'truss-out or flying scaffolding? I can't seem to find any pictures online of the renovations.0 -
Im still waiting for the plague frogs and te rivers turning to bloodwilliamglenn said:
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.another_richard said:
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?RoyalBlue said:Hello all.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.0 -
We haven't left yet.Alanbrooke said:
Im still waiting for the plague frogs and te rivers turning to bloodwilliamglenn said:
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.another_richard said:
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?RoyalBlue said:Hello all.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.0 -
So your prediction was wrong.williamglenn said:
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.another_richard said:
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?RoyalBlue said:Hello all.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.
0 -
If it happens as you hope the one thing that is certain the eurosceptics would have a new lease on life.williamglenn said:
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.another_richard said:
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?RoyalBlue said:Hello all.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.0 -
zzzzBromptonaut said:
We haven't left yet.Alanbrooke said:
Im still waiting for the plague frogs and te rivers turning to bloodwilliamglenn said:
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.another_richard said:
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?RoyalBlue said:Hello all.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.
get some imagination in your posts0 -
Corbyn isn't gone yet and his chances look decent. I was right in substance that one revolution would beget another and it would involve a lurch to the hard left.another_richard said:
So your prediction was wrong.williamglenn said:
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.another_richard said:
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?RoyalBlue said:Hello all.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.0 -
They have no interest in us remaining half-in, half-out. A second referendum would therefore be fought on the basis that In means All The Way In.RoyalBlue said:
I disagree. The prize to the EU of avoiding the secession of a Member State, whilst humiliating the one that tried is immense. They would not put it at risk by eliminating the opt-outs we already have.ThreeQuidder said:
The problem with this is that Remain (on the previous terms) is no longer an option, so can't be in a second referendum. The only possible second referendums are Deal or No Deal - or Deal or Full Membership (including the euro and Schengen).RoyalBlue said:Hello all.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
Even so, the drive to full participation would begin almost instantly.0 -
I don't think so. They'll have fought them on the beaches and lost. Their cathartic moment of defeat will allow them psychologically to accept being part of a European political organisation.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it happens as you hope the one thing that is certain the eurosceptics would have a new lease on life.williamglenn said:
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.another_richard said:
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?RoyalBlue said:Hello all.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.0 -
noThreeQuidder said:
They have no interest in us remaining half-in, half-out. A second referendum would therefore be fought on the basis that In means All The Way In.RoyalBlue said:
I disagree. The prize to the EU of avoiding the secession of a Member State, whilst humiliating the one that tried is immense. They would not put it at risk by eliminating the opt-outs we already have.ThreeQuidder said:
The problem with this is that Remain (on the previous terms) is no longer an option, so can't be in a second referendum. The only possible second referendums are Deal or No Deal - or Deal or Full Membership (including the euro and Schengen).RoyalBlue said:Hello all.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
Even so, the drive to full participation would begin almost instantly.0 -
Would win by about 70-30, I expect.IanB2 said:
noThreeQuidder said:
They have no interest in us remaining half-in, half-out. A second referendum would therefore be fought on the basis that In means All The Way In.RoyalBlue said:
I disagree. The prize to the EU of avoiding the secession of a Member State, whilst humiliating the one that tried is immense. They would not put it at risk by eliminating the opt-outs we already have.ThreeQuidder said:
The problem with this is that Remain (on the previous terms) is no longer an option, so can't be in a second referendum. The only possible second referendums are Deal or No Deal - or Deal or Full Membership (including the euro and Schengen).RoyalBlue said:Hello all.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
Even so, the drive to full participation would begin almost instantly.0 -
I'm still waiting for this:Alanbrooke said:
Im still waiting for the plague frogs and te rivers turning to bloodwilliamglenn said:
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.
' Today, we are setting out our assessment of what would happen in the weeks and months after a vote to Leave on June 23.
It is clear that there would be an immediate and profound shock to our economy.
The analysis produced by the Treasury today shows that a vote to leave will push our economy into a recession that would knock 3.6 per cent off GDP and, over two years, put hundreds of thousands of people out of work right across the country, compared to the forecast for continued growth if we vote to remain in the EU.
In a more severe shock scenario, Treasury economists estimate that our economy could be hit by 6 per cent, there would be a deeper recession and unemployment would rise by even more. '
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/22/david-cameron-and-george-osborne-brexit-would-put-our-economy-in/
Instead we have this:
' Manufacturing firms reported that both their total and export order books had strengthened to multi-decade highs in June, according to the CBI’s latest Industrial Trends Survey.
•27% of manufacturers reported total order books to be above normal, and 12% said they were below normal, giving a rounded balance of +16%. This was the highest level seen in nearly three decades, since August 1988 (+17%)
•23% of firms said their export order books were above normal, and 10% said they were below normal, giving a balance of +13%. This was the highest balance since June 1995 (+20%) '
http://www.cbi.org.uk/news/manufacturing-demand-strengthens/
0 -
Do you mean all the photos of Theresa personally applying the cladding have been removed?JosiasJessop said:
Good point - although if scaffolding was only needed for the cladding work, then it's possible the scaffolding costs were part of that contract.Nemtynakht said:
I wouldn't necessarily trust he costs by item. It is normal practice to split out scaffolding costs.JosiasJessop said:
I doubt it would be billions for replacement of the cladding systems. The entire refit of the Grenfell tower was £8.7 million, and according to Wiki the cladding part of the work cost £2.6 million. Given that it might just be a part-for-part replacement (unless they need to fix some form of structural 'chimney' effect) it should be a fairly straightforward job (or as straightforward as working at height can be).Big_G_NorthWales said:The extent of the use of this cladding and it's removal could cost the Country many countless billions.
Big tax rises look inevitable
If we take a cost of £2 million to replace the cladding, then 500 buildings could be done for a billion. Although having skilled people and kit to do the work might be a problem: they need to ensure the work's done properly, even if it means it takes time for them to be done.
Now, if they decide that grandfather rights for things like sprinklers in high-rise buildings are to be voided, then it may well get into billions.
That brings up an irrelevant question, but one that interests me ('cos I'm sad): how did they do the cladding work? Was it scaffolded from the ground up, 'truss-out or flying scaffolding? I can't seem to find any pictures online of the renovations.0 -
Meanwhile back on planet earth nobody spends a moment thinking about Brexit let alone discussing itwilliamglenn said:
I don't think so. They'll have fought them on the beaches and lost. Their cathartic moment of defeat that will allow them psychologically to accept being part of a European political organisation.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it happens as you hope the one thing that is certain the eurosceptics would have a new lease on life.williamglenn said:
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.another_richard said:
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?RoyalBlue said:Hello all.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.
Brexit is simply a discussion for political anoraks0 -
I suspect suppliers of the "correct" type of cladding and insulation are desperately trying to upscale their production lines. And the price has probably gone up!JosiasJessop said:
Good point - although if scaffolding was only needed for the cladding work, then it's possible the scaffolding costs were part of that contract.Nemtynakht said:
I wouldn't necessarily trust he costs by item. It is normal practice to split out scaffolding costs.JosiasJessop said:
I doubt it would be billions for replacement of the cladding systems. The entire refit of the Grenfell tower was £8.7 million, and according to Wiki the cladding part of the work cost £2.6 million. Given that it might just be a part-for-part replacement (unless they need to fix some form of structural 'chimney' effect) it should be a fairly straightforward job (or as straightforward as working at height can be).Big_G_NorthWales said:The extent of the use of this cladding and it's removal could cost the Country many countless billions.
Big tax rises look inevitable
If we take a cost of £2 million to replace the cladding, then 500 buildings could be done for a billion. Although having skilled people and kit to do the work might be a problem: they need to ensure the work's done properly, even if it means it takes time for them to be done.
Now, if they decide that grandfather rights for things like sprinklers in high-rise buildings are to be voided, then it may well get into billions.
That brings up an irrelevant question, but one that interests me ('cos I'm sad): how did they do the cladding work? Was it scaffolded from the ground up, 'truss-out or flying scaffolding? I can't seem to find any pictures online of the renovations.0 -
Yes, and this is precisely why it cannot be delivered. You can't maintain a majority coalition of voters throughout a process that will cause this much upheaval when most people aren't interested in the slightest. When the going gets tough, the sane ask questions.Alanbrooke said:
Meanwhile back on planet earth nobody spends a moment thinking about Brexit let alone discussing itwilliamglenn said:
I don't think so. They'll have fought them on the beaches and lost. Their cathartic moment of defeat that will allow them psychologically to accept being part of a European political organisation.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it happens as you hope the one thing that is certain the eurosceptics would have a new lease on life.williamglenn said:
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.another_richard said:
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?RoyalBlue said:Hello all.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.
Brexit is simply a discussion for political anoraks0 -
You're thinking too legalistically. Political momentum in the U.K. would probably see the opt-outs abandoned; there's no need for them to threaten us.ThreeQuidder said:
They have no interest in us remaining half-in, half-out. A second referendum would therefore be fought on the basis that In means All The Way In.RoyalBlue said:
I disagree. The prize to the EU of avoiding the secession of a Member State, whilst humiliating the one that tried is immense. They would not put it at risk by eliminating the opt-outs we already have.ThreeQuidder said:
The problem with this is that Remain (on the previous terms) is no longer an option, so can't be in a second referendum. The only possible second referendums are Deal or No Deal - or Deal or Full Membership (including the euro and Schengen).RoyalBlue said:Hello all.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
Even so, the drive to full participation would begin almost instantly.
It would be the end of Euroscepticism, and the end of any prospect of Britain being an independent, sovereign state.
0 -
As the BBC put it today, with wonderfully British understatement:another_richard said:
I'm still waiting for this:Alanbrooke said:
Im still waiting for the plague frogs and te rivers turning to bloodwilliamglenn said:
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.
' Today, we are setting out our assessment of what would happen in the weeks and months after a vote to Leave on June 23.
It is clear that there would be an immediate and profound shock to our economy.
The analysis produced by the Treasury today shows that a vote to leave will push our economy into a recession that would knock 3.6 per cent off GDP and, over two years, put hundreds of thousands of people out of work right across the country, compared to the forecast for continued growth if we vote to remain in the EU.
In a more severe shock scenario, Treasury economists estimate that our economy could be hit by 6 per cent, there would be a deeper recession and unemployment would rise by even more. '
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/22/david-cameron-and-george-osborne-brexit-would-put-our-economy-in/
Instead we have this:
' Manufacturing firms reported that both their total and export order books had strengthened to multi-decade highs in June, according to the CBI’s latest Industrial Trends Survey.
•27% of manufacturers reported total order books to be above normal, and 12% said they were below normal, giving a rounded balance of +16%. This was the highest level seen in nearly three decades, since August 1988 (+17%)
•23% of firms said their export order books were above normal, and 10% said they were below normal, giving a balance of +13%. This was the highest balance since June 1995 (+20%) '
http://www.cbi.org.uk/news/manufacturing-demand-strengthens/
As it turned out, those predictions were a touch pessimistic.0 -
you're not sanewilliamglenn said:
Yes, and this is precisely why it cannot be delivered. You can't maintain a majority coalition of voters throughout a process that will cause this much upheaval when most people aren't interested in the slightest. When the going gets tough, the sane ask questions.Alanbrooke said:
Meanwhile back on planet earth nobody spends a moment thinking about Brexit let alone discussing itwilliamglenn said:
I don't think so. They'll have fought them on the beaches and lost. Their cathartic moment of defeat that will allow them psychologically to accept being part of a European political organisation.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it happens as you hope the one thing that is certain the eurosceptics would have a new lease on life.williamglenn said:
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.another_richard said:
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?RoyalBlue said:Hello all.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.
Brexit is simply a discussion for political anoraks
0 -
' He gazed up at the enormous face. Forty years it had taken him to learn what kind of smile was hidden beneath the dark moustache. O cruel, needless misunderstanding! O stubborn, self-willed exile from the loving breast! Two gin-scented tears trickled down the sides of his nose. But it was all right, everything was all right, the struggle was finished. He had won the victory over himself. He loved Big Brother. 'williamglenn said:
I don't think so. They'll have fought them on the beaches and lost. Their cathartic moment of defeat will allow them psychologically to accept being part of a European political organisation.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it happens as you hope the one thing that is certain the eurosceptics would have a new lease on life.williamglenn said:
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.another_richard said:
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?RoyalBlue said:Hello all.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.0 -
I don't believe that's correct. It might certainly quell the uprising in a single country (the UK) but it won't suppress the anti-EU underclass throughout the EU.williamglenn said:
I don't think so. They'll have fought them on the beaches and lost. Their cathartic moment of defeat will allow them psychologically to accept being part of a European political organisation.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it happens as you hope the one thing that is certain the eurosceptics would have a new lease on life.williamglenn said:
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.another_richard said:
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?RoyalBlue said:Hello all.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.
If Brexit is reversed, I am very much afraid that the end-game will be the whole of the EU engulfed in the political conflict the UK is now experiencing. That could very easily turn into a war.
That fear is one reason why I'm still hiding behind the sofa, politically.0 -
If the suspect cladding was put up under PFI. Why can't we knock the cost off the future PFI payments? They put the rubbish up, let them take the painJosiasJessop said:
I doubt it would be billions for replacement of the cladding systems. The entire refit of the Grenfell tower was £8.7 million, and according to Wiki the cladding part of the work cost £2.6 million. Given that it might just be a part-for-part replacement (unless they need to fix some form of structural 'chimney' effect) it should be a fairly straightforward job (or as straightforward as working at height can be).Big_G_NorthWales said:The extent of the use of this cladding and it's removal could cost the Country many countless billions.
Big tax rises look inevitable
If we take a cost of £2 million to replace the cladding, then 500 buildings could be done for a billion. Although having skilled people and kit to do the work might be a problem: they need to ensure the work's done properly, even if it means it takes time for them to be done.
Now, if they decide that grandfather rights for things like sprinklers in high-rise buildings are to be voided, then it may well get into billions.0 -
But importantly they trashed Project Fear.ThreeQuidder said:
As the BBC put it today, with wonderfully British understatement:another_richard said:
I'm still waiting for this:Alanbrooke said:
Im still waiting for the plague frogs and te rivers turning to bloodwilliamglenn said:
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.
' Today, we are setting out our assessment of what would happen in the weeks and months after a vote to Leave on June 23.
It is clear that there would be an immediate and profound shock to our economy.
The analysis produced by the Treasury today shows that a vote to leave will push our economy into a recession that would knock 3.6 per cent off GDP and, over two years, put hundreds of thousands of people out of work right across the country, compared to the forecast for continued growth if we vote to remain in the EU.
In a more severe shock scenario, Treasury economists estimate that our economy could be hit by 6 per cent, there would be a deeper recession and unemployment would rise by even more. '
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/22/david-cameron-and-george-osborne-brexit-would-put-our-economy-in/
Instead we have this:
' Manufacturing firms reported that both their total and export order books had strengthened to multi-decade highs in June, according to the CBI’s latest Industrial Trends Survey.
•27% of manufacturers reported total order books to be above normal, and 12% said they were below normal, giving a rounded balance of +16%. This was the highest level seen in nearly three decades, since August 1988 (+17%)
•23% of firms said their export order books were above normal, and 10% said they were below normal, giving a balance of +13%. This was the highest balance since June 1995 (+20%) '
http://www.cbi.org.uk/news/manufacturing-demand-strengthens/
As it turned out, those predictions were a touch pessimistic.
So when the government tried to use it in the election it wasn't believed.
0 -
There isn't an anti-EU underclass. We are the cautionary tale.AnneJGP said:
I don't believe that's correct. It might certainly quell the uprising in a single country (the UK) but it won't suppress the anti-EU underclass throughout the EU.williamglenn said:
I don't think so. They'll have fought them on the beaches and lost. Their cathartic moment of defeat will allow them psychologically to accept being part of a European political organisation.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it happens as you hope the one thing that is certain the eurosceptics would have a new lease on life.williamglenn said:
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.another_richard said:
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?RoyalBlue said:Hello all.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.
If Brexit is reversed, I am very much afraid that the end-game will be the whole of the EU engulfed in the political conflict the UK is now experiencing. That could very easily turn into a war.
That fear is one reason why I'm still hiding behind the sofa, politically.0 -
Cammo should've stuck to his guns. How Remainers must hate him for his misjudgement
https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/8782520289543331870 -
Political momentum led to parties advocating an orderly Brexit getting over 80% of the vote a fortnight ago - and I'm not including the party of Tim 'I'm a eurosceptic' Farron.RoyalBlue said:
You're thinking too legalistically. Political momentum in the U.K. would probably see the opt-outs abandoned; there's no need for them to threaten us.ThreeQuidder said:
They have no interest in us remaining half-in, half-out. A second referendum would therefore be fought on the basis that In means All The Way In.RoyalBlue said:
I disagree. The prize to the EU of avoiding the secession of a Member State, whilst humiliating the one that tried is immense. They would not put it at risk by eliminating the opt-outs we already have.ThreeQuidder said:
The problem with this is that Remain (on the previous terms) is no longer an option, so can't be in a second referendum. The only possible second referendums are Deal or No Deal - or Deal or Full Membership (including the euro and Schengen).RoyalBlue said:Hello all.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
Even so, the drive to full participation would begin almost instantly.
It would be the end of Euroscepticism, and the end of any prospect of Britain being an independent, sovereign state.0 -
Rare form of dismissal coming up at Taunton.-1
-
I doubt Grenfell Tower was under PFI, but it'll certainly be interesting to see who pays for any buildings that were built under PFI. I'm guessing if the cladding didn't meet the relevant codes when it was installed, then it's the PFI company's responsibility. If it was correct at the time of installation and it still needs changing, I daresay the lawyers will be earning a lot of money.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
If the suspect cladding was put up under PFI. Why can't we knock the cost off the future PFI payments? They put the rubbish up, let them take the painJosiasJessop said:
I doubt it would be billions for replacement of the cladding systems. The entire refit of the Grenfell tower was £8.7 million, and according to Wiki the cladding part of the work cost £2.6 million. Given that it might just be a part-for-part replacement (unless they need to fix some form of structural 'chimney' effect) it should be a fairly straightforward job (or as straightforward as working at height can be).Big_G_NorthWales said:The extent of the use of this cladding and it's removal could cost the Country many countless billions.
Big tax rises look inevitable
If we take a cost of £2 million to replace the cladding, then 500 buildings could be done for a billion. Although having skilled people and kit to do the work might be a problem: they need to ensure the work's done properly, even if it means it takes time for them to be done.
Now, if they decide that grandfather rights for things like sprinklers in high-rise buildings are to be voided, then it may well get into billions.0 -
You really are a dreamer. They have fought for this for 40 years and if it is taken from them they will not go away.williamglenn said:
I don't think so. They'll have fought them on the beaches and lost. Their cathartic moment of defeat will allow them psychologically to accept being part of a European political organisation.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it happens as you hope the one thing that is certain the eurosceptics would have a new lease on life.williamglenn said:
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.another_richard said:
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?RoyalBlue said:Hello all.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.
As far as I am concerned personally we have to leave in the softest way possible and at my age I am hoping that common sense will prevail and a fair solution will be found0 -
Sky News reporting that Camden Council are evacuating over 100 families tonight from a tower block that has the same cladding as Grenfell. That's going to create panic.0
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161 families. EeeeeeshTwistedFireStopper said:Sky News reporting that Camden Council are evacuating over 100 families from a tower block that has the same cladding as Grenfell. That's going to create panic.
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Indeed.TwistedFireStopper said:Sky News reporting that Camden Council are evacuating over 100 families from a tower block that has the same cladding as Grenfell. That's going to create panic.
If the authorities let things get out of hand they'll end up evacuating every tower block and high rise there is.
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One thing I'd fear is unscrupulous people supplying false and potentially non-compliant materials due to the increased demand. In fact, it would be good if the Buildings Research Establishment or a.n.other sorted out a scheme where interested parties could send in such materials and get a quick result about whether they met code.TwistedFireStopper said:
I suspect suppliers of the "correct" type of cladding and insulation are desperately trying to upscale their production lines. And the price has probably gone up!JosiasJessop said:
Good point - although if scaffolding was only needed for the cladding work, then it's possible the scaffolding costs were part of that contract.Nemtynakht said:
I wouldn't necessarily trust he costs by item. It is normal practice to split out scaffolding costs.JosiasJessop said:
I doubt it would be billions for replacement of the cladding systems. The entire refit of the Grenfell tower was £8.7 million, and according to Wiki the cladding part of the work cost £2.6 million. Given that it might just be a part-for-part replacement (unless they need to fix some form of structural 'chimney' effect) it should be a fairly straightforward job (or as straightforward as working at height can be).Big_G_NorthWales said:The extent of the use of this cladding and it's removal could cost the Country many countless billions.
Big tax rises look inevitable
If we take a cost of £2 million to replace the cladding, then 500 buildings could be done for a billion. Although having skilled people and kit to do the work might be a problem: they need to ensure the work's done properly, even if it means it takes time for them to be done.
Now, if they decide that grandfather rights for things like sprinklers in high-rise buildings are to be voided, then it may well get into billions.
That brings up an irrelevant question, but one that interests me ('cos I'm sad): how did they do the cladding work? Was it scaffolded from the ground up, 'truss-out or flying scaffolding? I can't seem to find any pictures online of the renovations.
A bit like every batch of concrete used for structural purposes has to go through a testing regime (I think, I might be misremembering!)0 -
A little over three minutes to go;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y8mLi-rRTh80 -
At what point did Cameron go from deriding UKIP as fruitcakes etc to thinking they were a serious threat to his party ?isam said:Cammo should've stuck to his guns. How Remainers must hate him for his misjudgement
https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/8782520289543331870 -
This has just gone off the scale of serious and my earlier posts about billions looks very salientTwistedFireStopper said:Sky News reporting that Camden Council are evacuating over 100 families tonight from a tower block that has the same cladding as Grenfell. That's going to create panic.
0 -
They were never a serious threat to the Conservative Party, just a threat to Dave's job.Yorkcity said:
At what point did Cameron go from deriding UKIP as fruitcakes etc to thinking they were a serious threat to his party ?isam said:Cammo should've stuck to his guns. How Remainers must hate him for his misjudgement
https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/8782520289543331870 -
TFS is it common for fridge freezers to cause fires ? I thought there was a bigger risk from tumble dryers.TwistedFireStopper said:Sky News reporting that Camden Council are evacuating over 100 families tonight from a tower block that has the same cladding as Grenfell. That's going to create panic.
0 -
Would that not be the same during his leadership of the party.tlg86 said:
They were never a serious threat to the Conservative Party, just a threat to Dave's job.Yorkcity said:
At what point did Cameron go from deriding UKIP as fruitcakes etc to thinking they were a serious threat to his party ?isam said:Cammo should've stuck to his guns. How Remainers must hate him for his misjudgement
https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/8782520289543331870 -
I haven't seen any bulletins concerning fridges, but anything at all that is powered by electricity, either mains or batteries, has the potential to go wrong and cause a fire.Yorkcity said:
TFS is it common for fridge freezers to cause fires ? I thought there was a bigger risk from tumble dryers.TwistedFireStopper said:Sky News reporting that Camden Council are evacuating over 100 families tonight from a tower block that has the same cladding as Grenfell. That's going to create panic.
0 -
In the short term, yes. But had Miliband become PM I don't think he'd have had an enjoyable five years and the Tories would have come back at the next election - probably led by someone promising to actually do something about immigration.Yorkcity said:
Would that not be the same during his leadership of the party.tlg86 said:
They were never a serious threat to the Conservative Party, just a threat to Dave's job.Yorkcity said:
At what point did Cameron go from deriding UKIP as fruitcakes etc to thinking they were a serious threat to his party ?isam said:Cammo should've stuck to his guns. How Remainers must hate him for his misjudgement
https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/878252028954333187
And on fridges, apparently they are the most dangerous of white goods:
http://www.ukfiretraining.com/news/fridge-freezer-fires.html
We have a Hotpoint fridge/freezer.
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Isn't there a pre-existing issue with Hotpoint Tumble Dryers...TwistedFireStopper said:
I haven't seen any bulletins concerning fridges, but anything at all that is powered by electricity, either mains or batteries, has the potential to go wrong and cause a fire.Yorkcity said:
TFS is it common for fridge freezers to cause fires ? I thought there was a bigger risk from tumble dryers.TwistedFireStopper said:Sky News reporting that Camden Council are evacuating over 100 families tonight from a tower block that has the same cladding as Grenfell. That's going to create panic.
0 -
I had a dishwasher that caught fire .Luckily I was watching the TV when all the electric went off at the fuse box , RCD cut out as the ignition was from the plug .The electrician said it was a wire arcing across.No damage just to the electric socket .I never go out and leave the washing machine or dishwasher on.TwistedFireStopper said:
I haven't seen any bulletins concerning fridges, but anything at all that is powered by electricity, either mains or batteries, has the potential to go wrong and cause a fire.Yorkcity said:
TFS is it common for fridge freezers to cause fires ? I thought there was a bigger risk from tumble dryers.TwistedFireStopper said:Sky News reporting that Camden Council are evacuating over 100 families tonight from a tower block that has the same cladding as Grenfell. That's going to create panic.
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Yeah, thats been well publicised, hasn't it?eek said:
Isn't there a pre-existing issue with Hotpoint Tumble Dryers...TwistedFireStopper said:
I haven't seen any bulletins concerning fridges, but anything at all that is powered by electricity, either mains or batteries, has the potential to go wrong and cause a fire.Yorkcity said:
TFS is it common for fridge freezers to cause fires ? I thought there was a bigger risk from tumble dryers.TwistedFireStopper said:Sky News reporting that Camden Council are evacuating over 100 families tonight from a tower block that has the same cladding as Grenfell. That's going to create panic.
0 -
Getting very tight for England-1
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Yes they came after months to change my daughter's.I bought her a new Bosch one and kept the Hotpoint in my garage until they made it safe.It was disgrace they was not forced to recall them.TwistedFireStopper said:
Yeah, thats been well publicised, hasn't it?eek said:
Isn't there a pre-existing issue with Hotpoint Tumble Dryers...TwistedFireStopper said:
I haven't seen any bulletins concerning fridges, but anything at all that is powered by electricity, either mains or batteries, has the potential to go wrong and cause a fire.Yorkcity said:
TFS is it common for fridge freezers to cause fires ? I thought there was a bigger risk from tumble dryers.TwistedFireStopper said:Sky News reporting that Camden Council are evacuating over 100 families tonight from a tower block that has the same cladding as Grenfell. That's going to create panic.
0 -
And they are miles behind on dealing with them. Hotpoint/Whirlpool need to take back all their faulty tumble dryers nowTwistedFireStopper said:
Yeah, thats been well publicised, hasn't it?eek said:
Isn't there a pre-existing issue with Hotpoint Tumble Dryers...TwistedFireStopper said:
I haven't seen any bulletins concerning fridges, but anything at all that is powered by electricity, either mains or batteries, has the potential to go wrong and cause a fire.Yorkcity said:
TFS is it common for fridge freezers to cause fires ? I thought there was a bigger risk from tumble dryers.TwistedFireStopper said:Sky News reporting that Camden Council are evacuating over 100 families tonight from a tower block that has the same cladding as Grenfell. That's going to create panic.
0 -
Report that an electrician working in one of the apartments in Camden for the tenant found dangerous wiring that could have led to a fire. Further discussion seemed to suggest that there could be multi reasons for fire danger and not just the cladding but many other issues.
You wonder where on earth this is going to go to. But safety has to be paramount at all times0 -
Spursy.
Livingstone = Bobby Sol?-1 -
Very poor from England when set for an easy win.-1
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Very poor debut for Livingstone. Barely a ball off the middle, poor strike rate and bizarre run out. Cost England the game.
Oh and a dropped catch as well. Debut to forget.0 -
BBC seem to be reporting all five blocks to be evacuated involving 800 families0
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Evening all! The only fight I got involved with at Ascot was with the Tote...0
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Leader of Camden Council talking live and confirming all tower blocks are being evacuated.
'We cannot guarantee the safety of our residents'
Not to put too fine a point on it.... seismic0 -
And to be re-housed in Birmingham....pooor sods.Big_G_NorthWales said:BBC seem to be reporting all five blocks to be evacuated involving 800 families
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There must be other councils wondering if they should follow suit.dyedwoolie said:Leader of Camden Council talking live and confirming all tower blocks are being evacuated.
'We cannot guarantee the safety of our residents'
Not to put too fine a point on it.... seismic0 -
I think there will be multiple small things that have gone wrong, coupled with a large dose of bad luck, which created the perfect firestorm. There are fires in tower blocks every day, up and down the country which don't cause such devastation. Even a fully involved flat fire is usually contained in the concrete cube it started in, and I bet there have been fires in blocks that do have the dodgy cladding that were contained.Big_G_NorthWales said:Report that an electrician working in one of the apartments in Camden for the tenant found dangerous wiring that could have led to a fire. Further discussion seemed to suggest that there could be multi reasons for fire danger and not just the cladding but many other issues.
You wonder where on earth this is going to go to. But safety has to be paramount at all times
We shouldn't be creating panic over this though, and I personally think tonight's evacuation is unhelpful.0 -
800 households confirmed by Camden council leader. Hoteliers opening champagne0
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I don't think he ever stopped thinking they were fruitcakes, which is why he called the Ref. He thought those guys would never win.Yorkcity said:
At what point did Cameron go from deriding UKIP as fruitcakes etc to thinking they were a serious threat to his party ?isam said:Cammo should've stuck to his guns. How Remainers must hate him for his misjudgement
https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/8782520289543331870 -
Local hotels - but 800 families must be 1500 plusnunu said:
And to be re-housed in Birmingham....pooor sods.Big_G_NorthWales said:BBC seem to be reporting all five blocks to be evacuated involving 800 families
0 -
Quite. Who wants to risk being the council that leaves them in place and a fire breaks out.tlg86 said:
There must be other councils wondering if they should follow suit.dyedwoolie said:Leader of Camden Council talking live and confirming all tower blocks are being evacuated.
'We cannot guarantee the safety of our residents'
Not to put too fine a point on it.... seismic
And what of offices, hospitals etc?
This could turn very chaotic, and will be VERY expensive0 -
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I bet Beth Rigby is loving this drama (unless she got lost on her way Camden, which is quite possible).calum said:0 -
What we've learned in the last year is that fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists are an election-winning coalition. Oh, and the fruitcakes and loonies really don't like it if you suggest that they got far too close to the closet racists.nunu said:
I don't think he ever stopped thinking they were fruitcakes, which is why he called the Ref. He thought those guys would never win.Yorkcity said:
At what point did Cameron go from deriding UKIP as fruitcakes etc to thinking they were a serious threat to his party ?isam said:Cammo should've stuck to his guns. How Remainers must hate him for his misjudgement
https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/878252028954333187-1 -
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/23/brexit-stopped-answer-in-our-hands-leaveAnneJGP said:
I don't believe that's correct. It might certainly quell the uprising in a single country (the UK) but it won't suppress the anti-EU underclass throughout the EU.williamglenn said:
I don't think so. They'll have fought them on the beaches and lost. Their cathartic moment of defeat will allow them psychologically to accept being part of a European political organisation.Big_G_NorthWales said:
If it happens as you hope the one thing that is certain the eurosceptics would have a new lease on life.williamglenn said:
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.another_richard said:
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?RoyalBlue said:Hello all.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.
If Brexit is reversed, I am very much afraid that the end-game will be the whole of the EU engulfed in the political conflict the UK is now experiencing. That could very easily turn into a war.
That fear is one reason why I'm still hiding behind the sofa, politically.0 -
They were a threat to the Conservative Party's prospects of an overall majority.tlg86 said:
They were never a serious threat to the Conservative Party, just a threat to Dave's job.Yorkcity said:
At what point did Cameron go from deriding UKIP as fruitcakes etc to thinking they were a serious threat to his party ?isam said:Cammo should've stuck to his guns. How Remainers must hate him for his misjudgement
https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/8782520289543331870 -
You weren't that big bloke, no shirt on, then?RochdalePioneers said:Evening all! The only fight I got involved with at Ascot was with the Tote...
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Communities dept release statement saying evacuation in accordance with fire safety guidance sent out to councils yesterday. Safety of residents paramount. May be repeated elsewhere then.0
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Beth Rigby seems to be indicating that Camden are reacting to the government instructions received a few days ago and to evacuate if necessary0
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Is Sean out of the country? Time to seize some property of the rich.dyedwoolie said:800 households confirmed by Camden council leader. Hoteliers opening champagne
Actually, last night I was at some friends for a drink on their roof terrace in W11 which has direct sight of Grenfell Tower. It was not only spooky but, in the stucco'd environ of multi-million pound Notting Hill houses, it seemed that something had changed.
London has always thought it was "vibrant" to have rich and poor cheek by jowl (the rich being the ones identifiying it so), but now perhaps that model is forever broken.0 -
As with anything it was tasteful until it became tastelessTOPPING said:
Is Sean out of the country? Time to seize some property of the rich.dyedwoolie said:800 households confirmed by Camden council leader. Hoteliers opening champagne
Actually, last night I was at some friends for a drink on their roof terrace in W11 which has direct sight of Grenfell Tower. It was not only spooky but, in the stucco'd environ of multi-million pound Notting Hill houses, it seemed that something had changed.
London has always thought it was "vibrant" to have rich and poor cheek by jowl (the rich being the ones identifiying it so), but now perhaps that model is forever broken.0 -
Big_G_NorthWales said:
Beth Rigby seems to be indicating that Camden are reacting to the government instructions received a few days ago and to evacuate if necessary
They cannot take any chances no matter how slight the risk of another catastrophic fire.
0 -
Councils need to make decisions on this swiftly to avoid angry scenes on Monday at council officesMarkHopkins said:Big_G_NorthWales said:Beth Rigby seems to be indicating that Camden are reacting to the government instructions received a few days ago and to evacuate if necessary
They cannot take any chances no matter how slight the risk of another catastrophic fire.0 -
Blimey, the first one resident knew of the evacuation was on Sky News!0
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Resident heard the evacuation through Sky news saying it is to do with gas pipes on the landings0
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Resident on Sky said she found out from Sky News about the evacuation and now she's come down been told it's the gas pipes on the landings.
Oh dear.0 -
The aftermath of the omnishambles budget - UKIP went from nowhere before it to a clear third place in the polls after it, with a corresponding drop in the Tories' poll rating. He gave the fateful Bloomberg speech in January 2013, under pressure from his party's right who drew the obvious conclusion that a battle with UKIP on the right and the collapse of the Lib Dems would let Labour in, even if it turned out not to be strictly true in the end.Yorkcity said:
At what point did Cameron go from deriding UKIP as fruitcakes etc to thinking they were a serious threat to his party ?isam said:Cammo should've stuck to his guns. How Remainers must hate him for his misjudgement
https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/878252028954333187
In fact, you can make a case that the entire decision to leave the EU is a consequence of poor politicians failing to manage their own party zealots. An at that stage inexperienced Cameron and Osborne cocking up a budget and then failing to hold their nerve through poor polling gave us the referendum.
Ed Miliband failing to put Unite, Len McCluskey and Karie Murphy back in their box after they helped elect him gave us the Falkirk stitch-up, which gave us the rule change, and of course Unite backed Jez and he went AWOL referendum campaign.0 -
Gas pipes - explosionsMarkHopkins said:Big_G_NorthWales said:Beth Rigby seems to be indicating that Camden are reacting to the government instructions received a few days ago and to evacuate if necessary
They cannot take any chances no matter how slight the risk of another catastrophic fire.0 -
this is for those with a stronger stomach than me...
https://twitter.com/frankieboyle/status/8783121839683543050 -
I think they could have left it tonight.0
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But, Corbyn isn't PM, and Scotland isn't seceding (another of your predictions).williamglenn said:
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.another_richard said:
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?RoyalBlue said:Hello all.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.
You were right about Trump.0 -
Sky saying it is chaos and on a friday night.tlg86 said:I think they could have left it tonight.
0 -
There had long been a Cash-Rees-Mogg-Redwoodite faction to the Cons. No BBG speech, no commitment to the referendum, no overall majority.MJW said:
The aftermath of the omnishambles budget - UKIP went from nowhere before it to a clear third place in the polls after it, with a corresponding drop in the Tories' poll rating. He gave the fateful Bloomberg speech in January 2013, under pressure from his party's right who drew the obvious conclusion that a battle with UKIP on the right and the collapse of the Lib Dems would let Labour in, even if it turned out not to be strictly true in the end.Yorkcity said:
At what point did Cameron go from deriding UKIP as fruitcakes etc to thinking they were a serious threat to his party ?isam said:Cammo should've stuck to his guns. How Remainers must hate him for his misjudgement
https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/878252028954333187
In fact, you can make a case that the entire decision to leave the EU is a consequence of poor politicians failing to manage their own party zealots. An at that stage inexperienced Cameron and Osborne cocking up a budget and then failing to hold their nerve through poor polling gave us the referendum.
Ed Miliband failing to put Unite, Len McCluskey and Karie Murphy back in their box after they helped elect him gave us the Falkirk stitch-up, which gave us the rule change, and of course Unite backed Jez and he went AWOL referendum campaign.
Now, was that an error?
As an, ahem, spirited Remainer, I can't say that it was. It was politics. Analagous to the LDs getting into bed with the Cons. They were in power and politics is all about being in power.
Of course the subsequent Remain campaign was cackhanded, but, as with the recent GE, the "situation: no change" message is not a very persuasive one when the people are restless.0
