To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
I think we might be missing the revolution in politics amongst the young. The only image i have of the YC's Is of an organisation where you met your future spouse and was the main social scene outside of the rugby and tennis club. Inmuch of rural england this is still probably true. What have the tories offered the younger generation to make them vote for the? The economic competance claim is seriously tarnished and they need some forward looking policies
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
The problem with this is that Remain (on the previous terms) is no longer an option, so can't be in a second referendum. The only possible second referendums are Deal or No Deal - or Deal or Full Membership (including the euro and Schengen).
Can anyone explain the reason why we would want ECJ to have jurisdiction. Is there any benefit to us? Why is Corbyn enthusiastic?
Because then they'll give us a trade deal.
Like how Canada has to have the ECJ jurisdiction in order to get a trade deal?
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe Canada has 3m EU citizens who were free to choose to live there without restriction, and under the protection of the ECJ?
The extent of the use of this cladding and it's removal could cost the Country many countless billions.
Big tax rises look inevitable
I doubt it would be billions for replacement of the cladding systems. The entire refit of the Grenfell tower was £8.7 million, and according to Wiki the cladding part of the work cost £2.6 million. Given that it might just be a part-for-part replacement (unless they need to fix some form of structural 'chimney' effect) it should be a fairly straightforward job (or as straightforward as working at height can be).
If we take a cost of £2 million to replace the cladding, then 500 buildings could be done for a billion. Although having skilled people and kit to do the work might be a problem: they need to ensure the work's done properly, even if it means it takes time for them to be done.
Now, if they decide that grandfather rights for things like sprinklers in high-rise buildings are to be voided, then it may well get into billions.
I've been wondering whether this might lead to a re-think on housing people in high rise buildings. Maybe we'll see a shift away from that policy. Cost of upgrading is bound to enter into the equation.
As a child, I used to live in a block of maisonettes - only 2 x 2-storey 'houses' on top of each other - and I never went to bed free from fear. Happily we were only there 3 years.
Nick Palmer talks very positively about his experiences growing up in a high-rise, although not in the UK.
High-rise living (or at least low-rise blocks of flats) are an obvious solution to any housing problems we may or may not have. Sadly past experiences of them in this country are not uniformly positive, and this fire will hardly help their image.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
The problem with this is that Remain (on the previous terms) is no longer an option, so can't be in a second referendum. The only possible second referendums are Deal or No Deal - or Deal or Full Membership (including the euro and Schengen).
I disagree. The prize to the EU of avoiding the secession of a Member State, whilst humiliating the one that tried is immense. They would not put it at risk by eliminating the opt-outs we already have.
Even so, the drive to full participation would begin almost instantly.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
The problem with this is that Remain (on the previous terms) is no longer an option, so can't be in a second referendum. The only possible second referendums are Deal or No Deal - or Deal or Full Membership (including the euro and Schengen).
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.
The extent of the use of this cladding and it's removal could cost the Country many countless billions.
Big tax rises look inevitable
I doubt it would be billions for replacement of the cladding systems. The entire refit of the Grenfell tower was £8.7 million, and according to Wiki the cladding part of the work cost £2.6 million. Given that it might just be a part-for-part replacement (unless they need to fix some form of structural 'chimney' effect) it should be a fairly straightforward job (or as straightforward as working at height can be).
If we take a cost of £2 million to replace the cladding, then 500 buildings could be done for a billion. Although having skilled people and kit to do the work might be a problem: they need to ensure the work's done properly, even if it means it takes time for them to be done.
Now, if they decide that grandfather rights for things like sprinklers in high-rise buildings are to be voided, then it may well get into billions.
I wouldn't necessarily trust he costs by item. It is normal practice to split out scaffolding costs.
Good point - although if scaffolding was only needed for the cladding work, then it's possible the scaffolding costs were part of that contract.
That brings up an irrelevant question, but one that interests me ('cos I'm sad): how did they do the cladding work? Was it scaffolded from the ground up, 'truss-out or flying scaffolding? I can't seem to find any pictures online of the renovations.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.
Im still waiting for the plague frogs and te rivers turning to blood
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.
Im still waiting for the plague frogs and te rivers turning to blood
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.
If it happens as you hope the one thing that is certain the eurosceptics would have a new lease on life.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.
Im still waiting for the plague frogs and te rivers turning to blood
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.
So your prediction was wrong.
Corbyn isn't gone yet and his chances look decent. I was right in substance that one revolution would beget another and it would involve a lurch to the hard left.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
The problem with this is that Remain (on the previous terms) is no longer an option, so can't be in a second referendum. The only possible second referendums are Deal or No Deal - or Deal or Full Membership (including the euro and Schengen).
I disagree. The prize to the EU of avoiding the secession of a Member State, whilst humiliating the one that tried is immense. They would not put it at risk by eliminating the opt-outs we already have.
Even so, the drive to full participation would begin almost instantly.
They have no interest in us remaining half-in, half-out. A second referendum would therefore be fought on the basis that In means All The Way In.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.
If it happens as you hope the one thing that is certain the eurosceptics would have a new lease on life.
I don't think so. They'll have fought them on the beaches and lost. Their cathartic moment of defeat will allow them psychologically to accept being part of a European political organisation.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
The problem with this is that Remain (on the previous terms) is no longer an option, so can't be in a second referendum. The only possible second referendums are Deal or No Deal - or Deal or Full Membership (including the euro and Schengen).
I disagree. The prize to the EU of avoiding the secession of a Member State, whilst humiliating the one that tried is immense. They would not put it at risk by eliminating the opt-outs we already have.
Even so, the drive to full participation would begin almost instantly.
They have no interest in us remaining half-in, half-out. A second referendum would therefore be fought on the basis that In means All The Way In.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
The problem with this is that Remain (on the previous terms) is no longer an option, so can't be in a second referendum. The only possible second referendums are Deal or No Deal - or Deal or Full Membership (including the euro and Schengen).
I disagree. The prize to the EU of avoiding the secession of a Member State, whilst humiliating the one that tried is immense. They would not put it at risk by eliminating the opt-outs we already have.
Even so, the drive to full participation would begin almost instantly.
They have no interest in us remaining half-in, half-out. A second referendum would therefore be fought on the basis that In means All The Way In.
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.
Im still waiting for the plague frogs and te rivers turning to blood
I'm still waiting for this:
' Today, we are setting out our assessment of what would happen in the weeks and months after a vote to Leave on June 23.
It is clear that there would be an immediate and profound shock to our economy.
The analysis produced by the Treasury today shows that a vote to leave will push our economy into a recession that would knock 3.6 per cent off GDP and, over two years, put hundreds of thousands of people out of work right across the country, compared to the forecast for continued growth if we vote to remain in the EU.
In a more severe shock scenario, Treasury economists estimate that our economy could be hit by 6 per cent, there would be a deeper recession and unemployment would rise by even more. '
' Manufacturing firms reported that both their total and export order books had strengthened to multi-decade highs in June, according to the CBI’s latest Industrial Trends Survey.
•27% of manufacturers reported total order books to be above normal, and 12% said they were below normal, giving a rounded balance of +16%. This was the highest level seen in nearly three decades, since August 1988 (+17%) •23% of firms said their export order books were above normal, and 10% said they were below normal, giving a balance of +13%. This was the highest balance since June 1995 (+20%) '
The extent of the use of this cladding and it's removal could cost the Country many countless billions.
Big tax rises look inevitable
I doubt it would be billions for replacement of the cladding systems. The entire refit of the Grenfell tower was £8.7 million, and according to Wiki the cladding part of the work cost £2.6 million. Given that it might just be a part-for-part replacement (unless they need to fix some form of structural 'chimney' effect) it should be a fairly straightforward job (or as straightforward as working at height can be).
If we take a cost of £2 million to replace the cladding, then 500 buildings could be done for a billion. Although having skilled people and kit to do the work might be a problem: they need to ensure the work's done properly, even if it means it takes time for them to be done.
Now, if they decide that grandfather rights for things like sprinklers in high-rise buildings are to be voided, then it may well get into billions.
I wouldn't necessarily trust he costs by item. It is normal practice to split out scaffolding costs.
Good point - although if scaffolding was only needed for the cladding work, then it's possible the scaffolding costs were part of that contract.
That brings up an irrelevant question, but one that interests me ('cos I'm sad): how did they do the cladding work? Was it scaffolded from the ground up, 'truss-out or flying scaffolding? I can't seem to find any pictures online of the renovations.
Do you mean all the photos of Theresa personally applying the cladding have been removed?
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.
If it happens as you hope the one thing that is certain the eurosceptics would have a new lease on life.
I don't think so. They'll have fought them on the beaches and lost. Their cathartic moment of defeat that will allow them psychologically to accept being part of a European political organisation.
Meanwhile back on planet earth nobody spends a moment thinking about Brexit let alone discussing it
Brexit is simply a discussion for political anoraks
The extent of the use of this cladding and it's removal could cost the Country many countless billions.
Big tax rises look inevitable
I doubt it would be billions for replacement of the cladding systems. The entire refit of the Grenfell tower was £8.7 million, and according to Wiki the cladding part of the work cost £2.6 million. Given that it might just be a part-for-part replacement (unless they need to fix some form of structural 'chimney' effect) it should be a fairly straightforward job (or as straightforward as working at height can be).
If we take a cost of £2 million to replace the cladding, then 500 buildings could be done for a billion. Although having skilled people and kit to do the work might be a problem: they need to ensure the work's done properly, even if it means it takes time for them to be done.
Now, if they decide that grandfather rights for things like sprinklers in high-rise buildings are to be voided, then it may well get into billions.
I wouldn't necessarily trust he costs by item. It is normal practice to split out scaffolding costs.
Good point - although if scaffolding was only needed for the cladding work, then it's possible the scaffolding costs were part of that contract.
That brings up an irrelevant question, but one that interests me ('cos I'm sad): how did they do the cladding work? Was it scaffolded from the ground up, 'truss-out or flying scaffolding? I can't seem to find any pictures online of the renovations.
I suspect suppliers of the "correct" type of cladding and insulation are desperately trying to upscale their production lines. And the price has probably gone up!
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.
If it happens as you hope the one thing that is certain the eurosceptics would have a new lease on life.
I don't think so. They'll have fought them on the beaches and lost. Their cathartic moment of defeat that will allow them psychologically to accept being part of a European political organisation.
Meanwhile back on planet earth nobody spends a moment thinking about Brexit let alone discussing it
Brexit is simply a discussion for political anoraks
Yes, and this is precisely why it cannot be delivered. You can't maintain a majority coalition of voters throughout a process that will cause this much upheaval when most people aren't interested in the slightest. When the going gets tough, the sane ask questions.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
The problem with this is that Remain (on the previous terms) is no longer an option, so can't be in a second referendum. The only possible second referendums are Deal or No Deal - or Deal or Full Membership (including the euro and Schengen).
I disagree. The prize to the EU of avoiding the secession of a Member State, whilst humiliating the one that tried is immense. They would not put it at risk by eliminating the opt-outs we already have.
Even so, the drive to full participation would begin almost instantly.
They have no interest in us remaining half-in, half-out. A second referendum would therefore be fought on the basis that In means All The Way In.
You're thinking too legalistically. Political momentum in the U.K. would probably see the opt-outs abandoned; there's no need for them to threaten us.
It would be the end of Euroscepticism, and the end of any prospect of Britain being an independent, sovereign state.
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.
Im still waiting for the plague frogs and te rivers turning to blood
I'm still waiting for this:
' Today, we are setting out our assessment of what would happen in the weeks and months after a vote to Leave on June 23.
It is clear that there would be an immediate and profound shock to our economy.
The analysis produced by the Treasury today shows that a vote to leave will push our economy into a recession that would knock 3.6 per cent off GDP and, over two years, put hundreds of thousands of people out of work right across the country, compared to the forecast for continued growth if we vote to remain in the EU.
In a more severe shock scenario, Treasury economists estimate that our economy could be hit by 6 per cent, there would be a deeper recession and unemployment would rise by even more. '
' Manufacturing firms reported that both their total and export order books had strengthened to multi-decade highs in June, according to the CBI’s latest Industrial Trends Survey.
•27% of manufacturers reported total order books to be above normal, and 12% said they were below normal, giving a rounded balance of +16%. This was the highest level seen in nearly three decades, since August 1988 (+17%) •23% of firms said their export order books were above normal, and 10% said they were below normal, giving a balance of +13%. This was the highest balance since June 1995 (+20%) '
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.
If it happens as you hope the one thing that is certain the eurosceptics would have a new lease on life.
I don't think so. They'll have fought them on the beaches and lost. Their cathartic moment of defeat that will allow them psychologically to accept being part of a European political organisation.
Meanwhile back on planet earth nobody spends a moment thinking about Brexit let alone discussing it
Brexit is simply a discussion for political anoraks
Yes, and this is precisely why it cannot be delivered. You can't maintain a majority coalition of voters throughout a process that will cause this much upheaval when most people aren't interested in the slightest. When the going gets tough, the sane ask questions.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.
If it happens as you hope the one thing that is certain the eurosceptics would have a new lease on life.
I don't think so. They'll have fought them on the beaches and lost. Their cathartic moment of defeat will allow them psychologically to accept being part of a European political organisation.
' He gazed up at the enormous face. Forty years it had taken him to learn what kind of smile was hidden beneath the dark moustache. O cruel, needless misunderstanding! O stubborn, self-willed exile from the loving breast! Two gin-scented tears trickled down the sides of his nose. But it was all right, everything was all right, the struggle was finished. He had won the victory over himself. He loved Big Brother. '
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.
If it happens as you hope the one thing that is certain the eurosceptics would have a new lease on life.
I don't think so. They'll have fought them on the beaches and lost. Their cathartic moment of defeat will allow them psychologically to accept being part of a European political organisation.
I don't believe that's correct. It might certainly quell the uprising in a single country (the UK) but it won't suppress the anti-EU underclass throughout the EU.
If Brexit is reversed, I am very much afraid that the end-game will be the whole of the EU engulfed in the political conflict the UK is now experiencing. That could very easily turn into a war.
That fear is one reason why I'm still hiding behind the sofa, politically.
The extent of the use of this cladding and it's removal could cost the Country many countless billions.
Big tax rises look inevitable
I doubt it would be billions for replacement of the cladding systems. The entire refit of the Grenfell tower was £8.7 million, and according to Wiki the cladding part of the work cost £2.6 million. Given that it might just be a part-for-part replacement (unless they need to fix some form of structural 'chimney' effect) it should be a fairly straightforward job (or as straightforward as working at height can be).
If we take a cost of £2 million to replace the cladding, then 500 buildings could be done for a billion. Although having skilled people and kit to do the work might be a problem: they need to ensure the work's done properly, even if it means it takes time for them to be done.
Now, if they decide that grandfather rights for things like sprinklers in high-rise buildings are to be voided, then it may well get into billions.
If the suspect cladding was put up under PFI. Why can't we knock the cost off the future PFI payments? They put the rubbish up, let them take the pain
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.
Im still waiting for the plague frogs and te rivers turning to blood
I'm still waiting for this:
' Today, we are setting out our assessment of what would happen in the weeks and months after a vote to Leave on June 23.
It is clear that there would be an immediate and profound shock to our economy.
The analysis produced by the Treasury today shows that a vote to leave will push our economy into a recession that would knock 3.6 per cent off GDP and, over two years, put hundreds of thousands of people out of work right across the country, compared to the forecast for continued growth if we vote to remain in the EU.
In a more severe shock scenario, Treasury economists estimate that our economy could be hit by 6 per cent, there would be a deeper recession and unemployment would rise by even more. '
' Manufacturing firms reported that both their total and export order books had strengthened to multi-decade highs in June, according to the CBI’s latest Industrial Trends Survey.
•27% of manufacturers reported total order books to be above normal, and 12% said they were below normal, giving a rounded balance of +16%. This was the highest level seen in nearly three decades, since August 1988 (+17%) •23% of firms said their export order books were above normal, and 10% said they were below normal, giving a balance of +13%. This was the highest balance since June 1995 (+20%) '
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.
If it happens as you hope the one thing that is certain the eurosceptics would have a new lease on life.
I don't think so. They'll have fought them on the beaches and lost. Their cathartic moment of defeat will allow them psychologically to accept being part of a European political organisation.
I don't believe that's correct. It might certainly quell the uprising in a single country (the UK) but it won't suppress the anti-EU underclass throughout the EU.
If Brexit is reversed, I am very much afraid that the end-game will be the whole of the EU engulfed in the political conflict the UK is now experiencing. That could very easily turn into a war.
That fear is one reason why I'm still hiding behind the sofa, politically.
There isn't an anti-EU underclass. We are the cautionary tale.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
The problem with this is that Remain (on the previous terms) is no longer an option, so can't be in a second referendum. The only possible second referendums are Deal or No Deal - or Deal or Full Membership (including the euro and Schengen).
I disagree. The prize to the EU of avoiding the secession of a Member State, whilst humiliating the one that tried is immense. They would not put it at risk by eliminating the opt-outs we already have.
Even so, the drive to full participation would begin almost instantly.
They have no interest in us remaining half-in, half-out. A second referendum would therefore be fought on the basis that In means All The Way In.
You're thinking too legalistically. Political momentum in the U.K. would probably see the opt-outs abandoned; there's no need for them to threaten us.
It would be the end of Euroscepticism, and the end of any prospect of Britain being an independent, sovereign state.
Political momentum led to parties advocating an orderly Brexit getting over 80% of the vote a fortnight ago - and I'm not including the party of Tim 'I'm a eurosceptic' Farron.
The extent of the use of this cladding and it's removal could cost the Country many countless billions.
Big tax rises look inevitable
I doubt it would be billions for replacement of the cladding systems. The entire refit of the Grenfell tower was £8.7 million, and according to Wiki the cladding part of the work cost £2.6 million. Given that it might just be a part-for-part replacement (unless they need to fix some form of structural 'chimney' effect) it should be a fairly straightforward job (or as straightforward as working at height can be).
If we take a cost of £2 million to replace the cladding, then 500 buildings could be done for a billion. Although having skilled people and kit to do the work might be a problem: they need to ensure the work's done properly, even if it means it takes time for them to be done.
Now, if they decide that grandfather rights for things like sprinklers in high-rise buildings are to be voided, then it may well get into billions.
If the suspect cladding was put up under PFI. Why can't we knock the cost off the future PFI payments? They put the rubbish up, let them take the pain
I doubt Grenfell Tower was under PFI, but it'll certainly be interesting to see who pays for any buildings that were built under PFI. I'm guessing if the cladding didn't meet the relevant codes when it was installed, then it's the PFI company's responsibility. If it was correct at the time of installation and it still needs changing, I daresay the lawyers will be earning a lot of money.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.
If it happens as you hope the one thing that is certain the eurosceptics would have a new lease on life.
I don't think so. They'll have fought them on the beaches and lost. Their cathartic moment of defeat will allow them psychologically to accept being part of a European political organisation.
You really are a dreamer. They have fought for this for 40 years and if it is taken from them they will not go away.
As far as I am concerned personally we have to leave in the softest way possible and at my age I am hoping that common sense will prevail and a fair solution will be found
Sky News reporting that Camden Council are evacuating over 100 families tonight from a tower block that has the same cladding as Grenfell. That's going to create panic.
Sky News reporting that Camden Council are evacuating over 100 families from a tower block that has the same cladding as Grenfell. That's going to create panic.
Sky News reporting that Camden Council are evacuating over 100 families from a tower block that has the same cladding as Grenfell. That's going to create panic.
Indeed.
If the authorities let things get out of hand they'll end up evacuating every tower block and high rise there is.
The extent of the use of this cladding and it's removal could cost the Country many countless billions.
Big tax rises look inevitable
I doubt it would be billions for replacement of the cladding systems. The entire refit of the Grenfell tower was £8.7 million, and according to Wiki the cladding part of the work cost £2.6 million. Given that it might just be a part-for-part replacement (unless they need to fix some form of structural 'chimney' effect) it should be a fairly straightforward job (or as straightforward as working at height can be).
If we take a cost of £2 million to replace the cladding, then 500 buildings could be done for a billion. Although having skilled people and kit to do the work might be a problem: they need to ensure the work's done properly, even if it means it takes time for them to be done.
Now, if they decide that grandfather rights for things like sprinklers in high-rise buildings are to be voided, then it may well get into billions.
I wouldn't necessarily trust he costs by item. It is normal practice to split out scaffolding costs.
Good point - although if scaffolding was only needed for the cladding work, then it's possible the scaffolding costs were part of that contract.
That brings up an irrelevant question, but one that interests me ('cos I'm sad): how did they do the cladding work? Was it scaffolded from the ground up, 'truss-out or flying scaffolding? I can't seem to find any pictures online of the renovations.
I suspect suppliers of the "correct" type of cladding and insulation are desperately trying to upscale their production lines. And the price has probably gone up!
One thing I'd fear is unscrupulous people supplying false and potentially non-compliant materials due to the increased demand. In fact, it would be good if the Buildings Research Establishment or a.n.other sorted out a scheme where interested parties could send in such materials and get a quick result about whether they met code.
A bit like every batch of concrete used for structural purposes has to go through a testing regime (I think, I might be misremembering!)
Sky News reporting that Camden Council are evacuating over 100 families tonight from a tower block that has the same cladding as Grenfell. That's going to create panic.
This has just gone off the scale of serious and my earlier posts about billions looks very salient
Sky News reporting that Camden Council are evacuating over 100 families tonight from a tower block that has the same cladding as Grenfell. That's going to create panic.
TFS is it common for fridge freezers to cause fires ? I thought there was a bigger risk from tumble dryers.
Sky News reporting that Camden Council are evacuating over 100 families tonight from a tower block that has the same cladding as Grenfell. That's going to create panic.
TFS is it common for fridge freezers to cause fires ? I thought there was a bigger risk from tumble dryers.
I haven't seen any bulletins concerning fridges, but anything at all that is powered by electricity, either mains or batteries, has the potential to go wrong and cause a fire.
At what point did Cameron go from deriding UKIP as fruitcakes etc to thinking they were a serious threat to his party ?
They were never a serious threat to the Conservative Party, just a threat to Dave's job.
Would that not be the same during his leadership of the party.
In the short term, yes. But had Miliband become PM I don't think he'd have had an enjoyable five years and the Tories would have come back at the next election - probably led by someone promising to actually do something about immigration.
And on fridges, apparently they are the most dangerous of white goods:
Sky News reporting that Camden Council are evacuating over 100 families tonight from a tower block that has the same cladding as Grenfell. That's going to create panic.
TFS is it common for fridge freezers to cause fires ? I thought there was a bigger risk from tumble dryers.
I haven't seen any bulletins concerning fridges, but anything at all that is powered by electricity, either mains or batteries, has the potential to go wrong and cause a fire.
Isn't there a pre-existing issue with Hotpoint Tumble Dryers...
Sky News reporting that Camden Council are evacuating over 100 families tonight from a tower block that has the same cladding as Grenfell. That's going to create panic.
TFS is it common for fridge freezers to cause fires ? I thought there was a bigger risk from tumble dryers.
I haven't seen any bulletins concerning fridges, but anything at all that is powered by electricity, either mains or batteries, has the potential to go wrong and cause a fire.
I had a dishwasher that caught fire .Luckily I was watching the TV when all the electric went off at the fuse box , RCD cut out as the ignition was from the plug .The electrician said it was a wire arcing across.No damage just to the electric socket .I never go out and leave the washing machine or dishwasher on.
Sky News reporting that Camden Council are evacuating over 100 families tonight from a tower block that has the same cladding as Grenfell. That's going to create panic.
TFS is it common for fridge freezers to cause fires ? I thought there was a bigger risk from tumble dryers.
I haven't seen any bulletins concerning fridges, but anything at all that is powered by electricity, either mains or batteries, has the potential to go wrong and cause a fire.
Isn't there a pre-existing issue with Hotpoint Tumble Dryers...
Sky News reporting that Camden Council are evacuating over 100 families tonight from a tower block that has the same cladding as Grenfell. That's going to create panic.
TFS is it common for fridge freezers to cause fires ? I thought there was a bigger risk from tumble dryers.
I haven't seen any bulletins concerning fridges, but anything at all that is powered by electricity, either mains or batteries, has the potential to go wrong and cause a fire.
Isn't there a pre-existing issue with Hotpoint Tumble Dryers...
Yeah, thats been well publicised, hasn't it?
Yes they came after months to change my daughter's.I bought her a new Bosch one and kept the Hotpoint in my garage until they made it safe.It was disgrace they was not forced to recall them.
Sky News reporting that Camden Council are evacuating over 100 families tonight from a tower block that has the same cladding as Grenfell. That's going to create panic.
TFS is it common for fridge freezers to cause fires ? I thought there was a bigger risk from tumble dryers.
I haven't seen any bulletins concerning fridges, but anything at all that is powered by electricity, either mains or batteries, has the potential to go wrong and cause a fire.
Isn't there a pre-existing issue with Hotpoint Tumble Dryers...
Yeah, thats been well publicised, hasn't it?
And they are miles behind on dealing with them. Hotpoint/Whirlpool need to take back all their faulty tumble dryers now
Report that an electrician working in one of the apartments in Camden for the tenant found dangerous wiring that could have led to a fire. Further discussion seemed to suggest that there could be multi reasons for fire danger and not just the cladding but many other issues.
You wonder where on earth this is going to go to. But safety has to be paramount at all times
Leader of Camden Council talking live and confirming all tower blocks are being evacuated. 'We cannot guarantee the safety of our residents' Not to put too fine a point on it.... seismic
Leader of Camden Council talking live and confirming all tower blocks are being evacuated. 'We cannot guarantee the safety of our residents' Not to put too fine a point on it.... seismic
There must be other councils wondering if they should follow suit.
Report that an electrician working in one of the apartments in Camden for the tenant found dangerous wiring that could have led to a fire. Further discussion seemed to suggest that there could be multi reasons for fire danger and not just the cladding but many other issues.
You wonder where on earth this is going to go to. But safety has to be paramount at all times
I think there will be multiple small things that have gone wrong, coupled with a large dose of bad luck, which created the perfect firestorm. There are fires in tower blocks every day, up and down the country which don't cause such devastation. Even a fully involved flat fire is usually contained in the concrete cube it started in, and I bet there have been fires in blocks that do have the dodgy cladding that were contained. We shouldn't be creating panic over this though, and I personally think tonight's evacuation is unhelpful.
Leader of Camden Council talking live and confirming all tower blocks are being evacuated. 'We cannot guarantee the safety of our residents' Not to put too fine a point on it.... seismic
There must be other councils wondering if they should follow suit.
Quite. Who wants to risk being the council that leaves them in place and a fire breaks out. And what of offices, hospitals etc? This could turn very chaotic, and will be VERY expensive
At what point did Cameron go from deriding UKIP as fruitcakes etc to thinking they were a serious threat to his party ?
I don't think he ever stopped thinking they were fruitcakes, which is why he called the Ref. He thought those guys would never win.
What we've learned in the last year is that fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists are an election-winning coalition. Oh, and the fruitcakes and loonies really don't like it if you suggest that they got far too close to the closet racists.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.
If it happens as you hope the one thing that is certain the eurosceptics would have a new lease on life.
I don't think so. They'll have fought them on the beaches and lost. Their cathartic moment of defeat will allow them psychologically to accept being part of a European political organisation.
I don't believe that's correct. It might certainly quell the uprising in a single country (the UK) but it won't suppress the anti-EU underclass throughout the EU.
If Brexit is reversed, I am very much afraid that the end-game will be the whole of the EU engulfed in the political conflict the UK is now experiencing. That could very easily turn into a war.
That fear is one reason why I'm still hiding behind the sofa, politically.
Communities dept release statement saying evacuation in accordance with fire safety guidance sent out to councils yesterday. Safety of residents paramount. May be repeated elsewhere then.
800 households confirmed by Camden council leader. Hoteliers opening champagne
Is Sean out of the country? Time to seize some property of the rich.
Actually, last night I was at some friends for a drink on their roof terrace in W11 which has direct sight of Grenfell Tower. It was not only spooky but, in the stucco'd environ of multi-million pound Notting Hill houses, it seemed that something had changed.
London has always thought it was "vibrant" to have rich and poor cheek by jowl (the rich being the ones identifiying it so), but now perhaps that model is forever broken.
800 households confirmed by Camden council leader. Hoteliers opening champagne
Is Sean out of the country? Time to seize some property of the rich.
Actually, last night I was at some friends for a drink on their roof terrace in W11 which has direct sight of Grenfell Tower. It was not only spooky but, in the stucco'd environ of multi-million pound Notting Hill houses, it seemed that something had changed.
London has always thought it was "vibrant" to have rich and poor cheek by jowl (the rich being the ones identifiying it so), but now perhaps that model is forever broken.
As with anything it was tasteful until it became tasteless
At what point did Cameron go from deriding UKIP as fruitcakes etc to thinking they were a serious threat to his party ?
The aftermath of the omnishambles budget - UKIP went from nowhere before it to a clear third place in the polls after it, with a corresponding drop in the Tories' poll rating. He gave the fateful Bloomberg speech in January 2013, under pressure from his party's right who drew the obvious conclusion that a battle with UKIP on the right and the collapse of the Lib Dems would let Labour in, even if it turned out not to be strictly true in the end.
In fact, you can make a case that the entire decision to leave the EU is a consequence of poor politicians failing to manage their own party zealots. An at that stage inexperienced Cameron and Osborne cocking up a budget and then failing to hold their nerve through poor polling gave us the referendum.
Ed Miliband failing to put Unite, Len McCluskey and Karie Murphy back in their box after they helped elect him gave us the Falkirk stitch-up, which gave us the rule change, and of course Unite backed Jez and he went AWOL referendum campaign.
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
What was the forecast you made two years ago for the next two years ?
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.
I predicted that Brexit would lead to Corbyn becoming PM and that Trump would win. I predict that Brexit will be crushed under its own weight and that Eurosceptics won't show their face in mainstream British politics again.
But, Corbyn isn't PM, and Scotland isn't seceding (another of your predictions).
At what point did Cameron go from deriding UKIP as fruitcakes etc to thinking they were a serious threat to his party ?
The aftermath of the omnishambles budget - UKIP went from nowhere before it to a clear third place in the polls after it, with a corresponding drop in the Tories' poll rating. He gave the fateful Bloomberg speech in January 2013, under pressure from his party's right who drew the obvious conclusion that a battle with UKIP on the right and the collapse of the Lib Dems would let Labour in, even if it turned out not to be strictly true in the end.
In fact, you can make a case that the entire decision to leave the EU is a consequence of poor politicians failing to manage their own party zealots. An at that stage inexperienced Cameron and Osborne cocking up a budget and then failing to hold their nerve through poor polling gave us the referendum.
Ed Miliband failing to put Unite, Len McCluskey and Karie Murphy back in their box after they helped elect him gave us the Falkirk stitch-up, which gave us the rule change, and of course Unite backed Jez and he went AWOL referendum campaign.
There had long been a Cash-Rees-Mogg-Redwoodite faction to the Cons. No BBG speech, no commitment to the referendum, no overall majority.
Now, was that an error?
As an, ahem, spirited Remainer, I can't say that it was. It was politics. Analagous to the LDs getting into bed with the Cons. They were in power and politics is all about being in power.
Of course the subsequent Remain campaign was cackhanded, but, as with the recent GE, the "situation: no change" message is not a very persuasive one when the people are restless.
Comments
To further develop my thesis that the 2017 election result was the worst possible for the Tory Party, here's my forecast of the next 2 years:
1) Negotiations go badly; Tories are eviscerated in 2018 local elections.
2) The economy continues to slow. Real income shrinks, while unemployment rises.
3) September 2018: the 'deal' is announced, with grim terms for the UK including a large up-front payment.
4) Corbyn pivots, castigating the 'disastrous deal' and calling for a second referendum. The hardcore Remainer Tories see it through the Commons, after which it whisks through the Lords.
5) Every stop is pulled out for EURef Mark II. It's a 52-48 win for Remain.
6) Brexit is cancelled. We will have already lost the EU agencies, and be utterly humiliated in the eyes of the world.
7) The 140 Leaver Tory MPs separate, forming a new party. The House of Commons votes for a dissolution.
8) The Remainer Tories are utterly crushed. Jeremy Corbyn's Labour wins the election with a landslide on a hard left manifesto. The Brexiteer Tories form a shrunken Official Opposition.
Shame we can't bet on EURef II.
Anybody disagree?
Is of an organisation where you met your future spouse and was the main social scene outside of the rugby
and tennis club. Inmuch of rural england this is still probably true. What have the tories offered the younger generation to make them vote for the? The economic competance claim is seriously tarnished and they need some forward looking policies
High-rise living (or at least low-rise blocks of flats) are an obvious solution to any housing problems we may or may not have. Sadly past experiences of them in this country are not uniformly positive, and this fire will hardly help their image.
I'll have a guess that it didn't feature Corbyn, Brexit or Trump.
Even so, the drive to full participation would begin almost instantly.
That brings up an irrelevant question, but one that interests me ('cos I'm sad): how did they do the cladding work? Was it scaffolded from the ground up, 'truss-out or flying scaffolding? I can't seem to find any pictures online of the renovations.
get some imagination in your posts
' Today, we are setting out our assessment of what would happen in the weeks and months after a vote to Leave on June 23.
It is clear that there would be an immediate and profound shock to our economy.
The analysis produced by the Treasury today shows that a vote to leave will push our economy into a recession that would knock 3.6 per cent off GDP and, over two years, put hundreds of thousands of people out of work right across the country, compared to the forecast for continued growth if we vote to remain in the EU.
In a more severe shock scenario, Treasury economists estimate that our economy could be hit by 6 per cent, there would be a deeper recession and unemployment would rise by even more. '
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/22/david-cameron-and-george-osborne-brexit-would-put-our-economy-in/
Instead we have this:
' Manufacturing firms reported that both their total and export order books had strengthened to multi-decade highs in June, according to the CBI’s latest Industrial Trends Survey.
•27% of manufacturers reported total order books to be above normal, and 12% said they were below normal, giving a rounded balance of +16%. This was the highest level seen in nearly three decades, since August 1988 (+17%)
•23% of firms said their export order books were above normal, and 10% said they were below normal, giving a balance of +13%. This was the highest balance since June 1995 (+20%) '
http://www.cbi.org.uk/news/manufacturing-demand-strengthens/
Brexit is simply a discussion for political anoraks
It would be the end of Euroscepticism, and the end of any prospect of Britain being an independent, sovereign state.
As it turned out, those predictions were a touch pessimistic.
If Brexit is reversed, I am very much afraid that the end-game will be the whole of the EU engulfed in the political conflict the UK is now experiencing. That could very easily turn into a war.
That fear is one reason why I'm still hiding behind the sofa, politically.
So when the government tried to use it in the election it wasn't believed.
https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/878252028954333187
As far as I am concerned personally we have to leave in the softest way possible and at my age I am hoping that common sense will prevail and a fair solution will be found
If the authorities let things get out of hand they'll end up evacuating every tower block and high rise there is.
A bit like every batch of concrete used for structural purposes has to go through a testing regime (I think, I might be misremembering!)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y8mLi-rRTh8
And on fridges, apparently they are the most dangerous of white goods:
http://www.ukfiretraining.com/news/fridge-freezer-fires.html
We have a Hotpoint fridge/freezer.
You wonder where on earth this is going to go to. But safety has to be paramount at all times
Livingstone = Bobby Sol?
Oh and a dropped catch as well. Debut to forget.
'We cannot guarantee the safety of our residents'
Not to put too fine a point on it.... seismic
We shouldn't be creating panic over this though, and I personally think tonight's evacuation is unhelpful.
And what of offices, hospitals etc?
This could turn very chaotic, and will be VERY expensive
Actually, last night I was at some friends for a drink on their roof terrace in W11 which has direct sight of Grenfell Tower. It was not only spooky but, in the stucco'd environ of multi-million pound Notting Hill houses, it seemed that something had changed.
London has always thought it was "vibrant" to have rich and poor cheek by jowl (the rich being the ones identifiying it so), but now perhaps that model is forever broken.
They cannot take any chances no matter how slight the risk of another catastrophic fire.
Oh dear.
In fact, you can make a case that the entire decision to leave the EU is a consequence of poor politicians failing to manage their own party zealots. An at that stage inexperienced Cameron and Osborne cocking up a budget and then failing to hold their nerve through poor polling gave us the referendum.
Ed Miliband failing to put Unite, Len McCluskey and Karie Murphy back in their box after they helped elect him gave us the Falkirk stitch-up, which gave us the rule change, and of course Unite backed Jez and he went AWOL referendum campaign.
https://twitter.com/frankieboyle/status/878312183968354305
You were right about Trump.
Now, was that an error?
As an, ahem, spirited Remainer, I can't say that it was. It was politics. Analagous to the LDs getting into bed with the Cons. They were in power and politics is all about being in power.
Of course the subsequent Remain campaign was cackhanded, but, as with the recent GE, the "situation: no change" message is not a very persuasive one when the people are restless.