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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The biggest loser. How Nicola Sturgeon did even worse than TMay
General elections are like forest fires for party leaders. Within 24 hours of the 2015 election, Ed Mliband, Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage had all resigned. Paul Nuttall resigned as promptly after last week’s election, after the disappointing but expected loss of UKIP’s sole MP. Tim Farron resigned before a week was out despite increasing the Lib Dems’ seat tally by a third. Theresa May clings on by her fingernails, having lost 13 seats and the Conservatives’ majority.
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100% agree Alastair.0
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A scottish Indy thread??? Are you insane?!!????!?
Let the vitriol commence.....0 -
"forming a stable government"
But what about strong?0 -
Regarding the 're-leavers' poll on the last thread, does anyone remember this kind of talk a few weeks ago:
https://www.ft.com/content/76037a34-36ef-11e7-99bd-13beb0903fa30 -
Insane how volatile Scotland is, only a year ago the SNP and the independence movement looked unstoppable, now it looks in very real danger.0
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Well Alastair was complaining a few days ago that he'd had heaps of vitriol from everyone other than the Nats, so I guess he wants to complete his collection.Beverley_C said:A scottish Indy thread??? Are you insane?!!????!?
Let the vitriol commence.....0 -
Gordon was an pretty astonishing result. The Conservatives went from 12% to 41% to take the seat from Salmond.0
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Weirdly we have also seen Peak Tory at the start of the campaign Rother Valley, Stocksbridge and possibly even Bolsover might have been gained.SeanT said:We have seen Peak SNP, and Peak Indy (for now). We probably won't have indyref2 until the late 2020s (if then).
What will this do to the Nats, as their entire raison d'etre drifts ever further into the implausible? We could see a split between fundy Nats and civic Nats.
Ruth maintained peak Scottish Tory unlike Theresa, the height of which was gaining Gordon - which noone had on the radar.
At least the Nats actually got a General election result at their peak !0 -
So the public still want Brexit they just can't agree on what government they want to do it?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
It was a real pleasure to publish this thread.0
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The Nats will rightly be seen as the useful idiots of May's Tories, so SLab will prosper mightily.0
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Richard_Nabavi said:
Well Alastair was complaining a few days ago that he'd had heaps of vitriol from everyone other than the Nats, so I guess he wants to complete his collection.Beverley_C said:A scottish Indy thread??? Are you insane?!!????!?
Let the vitriol commence.....
I wish him the joy of his bargain!0 -
Typically misleading article from the Guardian
https://theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jun/14/london-fire-grenfell-tower-blaze-puts-emergency-service-cuts-in-sharp-focus
Cuts may well be in focus but the snide innuendo suggesting cuts were a factor in this instance when the only quote directly contradicts this ("others couldn't speak freely" - why?) shows why Labour must never be in power for the next 500 years.0 -
I wonder what Malc will make of it?TheScreamingEagles said:It was a real pleasure to publish this thread.
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Masochist!TheScreamingEagles said:It was a real pleasure to publish this thread.
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I can feel myself slipping into the re-leaver column...0
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FPT:
As I've posted several times, having just recovered from a bout of hubris I'm in a tremendous position to call it out when I see it. All the warning signs are there:SouthamObserver said:
Hubris is what we had on here from people like you before the election. I have no faith in the ability of a Corbyn-led government to provide any long-term solutions to the problems that the UK has. But I do think he has given a lot of people a voice who feel they have not had one for a very long time. I also suspect that this may lead to many more Labour gains in Scotland, more in London and a few more in the North and even, perhaps, parts of the Midlands. I also think the LibDems will benefit form tactical voting and that if the Tories are not careful they will find themselves out of power - especially with the Brexit shambles they have foisted upon us beginning to unwind not to the UK's advantage.Mortimer said:
I smell hubris.SouthamObserver said:
He leader.Alice_Aforethought said:
So he has no better ideas but is complaining anyway?SouthamObserver said:
It'sin.Alice_Aforethought said:
The thing is, I feel that way when I read that millions in the third world die because they cook indoors with smokey fuel because western liberals' preoccupation with global warming has made clean fuel like LPG too expensive. I feel that way when there are food shortages because food crops are being bought up by the highest bidder and turned into car fuel.SouthamObserver said:Slackbladder said:
It's right to ask questions, but we need investigations, not lynch mobs.calum said:
I expect we will get a full blown 'judge-led' inquiry into this affair.
What if the fire was caused by flammable building materials, used to meet green energy efficiency targets?
I at hospitals.
Likewise better?
There are areas of differentiation between parties but the quality of the NHS and building safety aren't among them.
How many million votes did the Blue Meanies win, remind me, last week?
- ignoring the views of those who disagree with you
- ignoring the mass divisions within those considering voting for Jez
- ignoring what many who you need to vote for you would stand to lose from a Jez government
- seeing every single news item as a reason why you're going to win
I have been VERY circumspect since last Thursday night. I'm beginning to wonder if the social media age makes government nigh on impossible.
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TheScreamingEagles said:
It was a real pleasure to publish this thread.
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It is quite possible that Labour could send the most MPs to Westminster from Scotland at the next election.0
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He now has a Tory MP doesn't he, he'll love this thread I'm sure.GIN1138 said:
I wonder what Malc will make of it?TheScreamingEagles said:It was a real pleasure to publish this thread.
I just hope Alastair knows how to cook turnips.0 -
As someone who has voted SNP in the past, there is very little reason for me to do so now. Their main offering is independence, which I don't want. Having run the Scottish Parliament for ten years now with a record that could generously be described as mediocre, I would vote for any other party if I want to see new faces or new ideas or a bit of competition.0
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What column were you in before?Pulpstar said:I can feel myself slipping into the re-leaver column...
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Hopefully he makes £40 so he can settle our bet.GIN1138 said:
I wonder what Malc will make of it?TheScreamingEagles said:It was a real pleasure to publish this thread.
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Reassuring the only 30 % of Britons are anti-democratic. I feared worse.GIN1138 said:
So the public still want Brexit they just can't agree on what government they want to do it?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
Does this maybe imply there could still be a way for Con to salvage this in a second election if they bin May and get a leader who is likable and who the public would trust with Brexit?
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Blimey - three MPC members (out of eight) voted to increase interest rates. That's a corker of a surprise.0
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FPT
Agreed. The 'Full English Brexit' crowd were extremely presumptuous. No sooner had the result come in and they were proclaiming an absolute mandate, not only for The Full English Brexit but even for their own version of Trumpism! Unfortunately for them, they anointed Theresa as their leader, who flopped dismally. However, they won't take it lying down. They will regard Theresa's failure as an appalling slight from an ungrateful electorate and will scupper anything that looks like a concession to the continentals. Mega-hard Brexit will ensue.Andy_Cooke said:
I remember when I was going through my decision-making process pre-referendum that I dismissed the analyses based on exitting EEA/EFTA as total scaremongering as it was completely obvious that we'd stay in the EEA/EFTA.Casino_Royale said:
One can always Leave, it's a question of the level of economic disruption you are willing to take for the political gains.Beverley_C said:
Well, I guess I count ashttps://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/eu-speech-at-bloomberg a "hard core remainer".Richard_Nabavi said:The hard-core Remainers are now making the mirror-image error of the mistake the Leave side made before the referendum; instead of coolly assessing the risks, they are assuming the risks are entirely one-sided.
What I am wondering is when do we realise that we are already too embedded into the EU to leave?
We don't share a currency. We do share a tariff/non-tariff union in goods, to a limited extent in services, a slight one in capital, and a very free one in people, for less than half of our international trade.
Look at the pre-ref EEA/EFTA analysis from PwC, OpenEurope or NIESR - the disruption is minimal.
It was the insistence of both sides, as well as the massive importance given to controlling immigration that finally decided me that I couldn't assume that any more and I (reluctantly) cast my vote for Remain.
Looking back, I'm glad I did, as the way my vote would have been taken - as endorsement of leaving EEA/EFTA as well as the EU - would have completely pissed me off.0 -
What does that mean in practical terms? Finding excuses to abstain, secretly not wanting the government to suffer too many defeats? That could be a pretty risky game in itself if Labour exploit it.Alastair Meeks said:So somehow they need to contrive to ensure that the Conservatives remain in power until their fortunes turn, but not to be seen doing so.
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I like Malc.SeanT said:
Actually, malcolmg made a very prescient remark about Brexit, and its potential effect on indy, about ten months ago.GIN1138 said:
I wonder what Malc will make of it?TheScreamingEagles said:It was a real pleasure to publish this thread.
He said that if Brexit was seen to be difficult, and if it was seen to cause political instability, then that would be seriously bad for the independence cause, and seriously bad for the SNP, as another vote for another kind of separation would look really unappetising.
Turns out he was right.
He may have a limited capacity for root-vegetable related insults, but malcolmg is no fool.
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Oh I don't know, hard remain for a bit I think. IF there is one thing I can't stand it is plans being changed, though I do think we'll be better off in the EU.Paristonda said:
What column were you in before?Pulpstar said:I can feel myself slipping into the re-leaver column...
I have internal irreconcilable differences of opinion I'm afraid.0 -
Is there a table of the different vote results covering the last few years. ISTR there were often 2 or 3 dissensions prior to Brexit vote?Richard_Nabavi said:Blimey - three MPC members (out of eight) voted to increase interest rates. That's a corker of a surprise.
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Is it ?Richard_Nabavi said:Blimey - three MPC members (out of eight) voted to increase interest rates. That's a corker of a surprise.
I'm fully expecting interest rates to go up shortly. I'm surprised you aren't.0 -
Yes. I thought it would have happened before this.Pulpstar said:
Is it ?Richard_Nabavi said:Blimey - three MPC members (out of eight) voted to increase interest rates. That's a corker of a surprise.
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Seems to me like the SNPs only chance of recovery at a Westminster level is to drop the focus on indy and instead present themselves as tactical voting allies with Lab against the Tories. If it wasn't for the rushed indyref2 call, perhaps anti Tory tactical voting would've played a bigger part than anti SNP. Remember, the 2015 tsunami was precisely because the Westminster election was nothing to do with another indyref. Labour also have an interest in this because an SNP gain from Con is +1 in the Lab govt column. Indy is back in the box if Brexit is not hard, and especially if it looks like Lab may retake power, so unionist tactical voting could potentially be replaced by anti-Tory tactical voting next time - politics there is certainly volatile enough for it to happen.
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FMQs on right now
@EddieBarnes23: Ruth: 60% of people say they don't want a 2nd indyref. Shouldn't the FM listen to them?
FM: (I paraphrase, a bit): No
#FMQs
@JournoStephen: Sturgeon says she will reflect and decide her party's position on #indyref2. Not the SNP, not members, not conference delegates. Her. #FMQs0 -
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To quote myself: "I have no faith in the ability of a Corbyn-led government to provide any long-term solutions to the problems that the UK has." Not sure how that is hubristic.Mortimer said:FPT:
As I've posted several times, having just recovered from a bout of hubris I'm in a tremendous position to call it out when I see it. All the warning signs are there:SouthamObserver said:
Hubris is advantage.Mortimer said:
I smell hubris.SouthamObserver said:
He leader.Alice_Aforethought said:
So he has no better ideas but is complaining anyway?SouthamObserver said:
It'sin.Alice_Aforethought said:
The thing is, I feel that way when I read that millions in the third world die because they cook indoors with smokey fuel because western liberals' preoccupation with global warming has made clean fuel like LPG too expensive. I feel that way when there are food shortages because food crops are being bought up by the highest bidder and turned into car fuel.SouthamObserver said:Slackbladder said:
It's right to ask questions, but we need investigations, not lynch mobs.calum said:
I expect we will get a full blown 'judge-led' inquiry into this affair.
What if the fire was caused by flammable building materials, used to meet green energy efficiency targets?
I at hospitals.
Likewise better?
There are areas of differentiation between parties but the quality of the NHS and building safety aren't among them.
How many million votes did the Blue Meanies win, remind me, last week?
- ignoring the views of those who disagree with you
- ignoring the mass divisions within those considering voting for Jez
- ignoring what many who you need to vote for you would stand to lose from a Jez government
- seeing every single news item as a reason why you're going to win
I have been VERY circumspect since last Thursday night. I'm beginning to wonder if the social media age makes government nigh on impossible.
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Photo op...
https://twitter.com/vinny_lbc/status/875310894426841088
@Vinny_LBC: @LBC Jeremy says emergency services need support and investigation/inquiry needs the full weight of government behind it0 -
(1) How many of the remaining SNP seats are vulnerable to Labour?
(2) How many of the remaining SNP seats are vulnerable to the Conservatives?0 -
The Bank of England edged closer to raising interest rates this month as a deeper split emerged among its committee of policymakers, with three of the eight voting for an immediate rate rise to keep inflation in check.Pulpstar said:
Is it ?Richard_Nabavi said:Blimey - three MPC members (out of eight) voted to increase interest rates. That's a corker of a surprise.
I'm fully expecting interest rates to go up shortly. I'm surprised you aren't.
The 5-3 split vote to keep interest rates at their record low of 0.25% will surprise financial markets. Most City economists had expected just one member, Kristin Forbes, would maintain her previous vote for rates to be raised to 0.5%. Instead she was joined by Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/jun/15/markets-bank-of-england-retail-sales-greek-debt-talks-business-live
I'm not expecting interest rates to rise soon. The economy is getting more fragile, not less.
Of course, the MPC are in a bind - the combination of rising inflation and a weakening economy is a nasty one.0 -
Does this maybe imply there could still be a way for Con to salvage this in a second election if they bin May and get a leader who is likable and who the public would trust with Brexit?GIN1138 said:
It does suggest a clear majority for Brexit but of the soft Brexit variety which would favour someone like Hammond0 -
Driven by 27% of SLAB voters !
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/8753093298801418250 -
Good article, Alastair.
Are the SNP thinking at all about a new strategy, though?
It seems entirely like BAU to me.0 -
Mr. Nabavi, should never have cut rates to 0.25%. About time we had a rise. Makes things easier for people saving for a deposit, makes it easier for pensioners who rely on savings.
More difficult for people with a mortgage, but rates have been historically low for a decade.0 -
EEA is stalemate. It probably won't actually work for us. The reason for going for it is that we had a vote which rejected the best option of staying in the EU. Democracy has to be respected so then you look at least bad alternatives to the one that has been rejected.Pulpstar said:
Oh I don't know, hard remain for a bit I think. IF there is one thing I can't stand it is plans being changed, though I do think we'll be better off in the EU.Paristonda said:
What column were you in before?Pulpstar said:I can feel myself slipping into the re-leaver column...
I have internal irreconcilable differences of opinion I'm afraid.
The problem with full membership is that a democratic decision was taken to reject it. It can only be readopted by another democratic decision that explicitly admits we made a mistake.
Everything else is a car crash.
EEA is what it has to be IMO. It does leave open the possibility of moving back to the EU later.0 -
I expected them to up last year because of Brexit. It seems that everyone has been waiting for the talks to start.Pulpstar said:
Is it ?Richard_Nabavi said:Blimey - three MPC members (out of eight) voted to increase interest rates. That's a corker of a surprise.
I'm fully expecting interest rates to go up shortly. I'm surprised you aren't.
Soon, we will live in interesting times 0 -
Can't argue with that.Scott_P said:Photo op...
https://twitter.com/vinny_lbc/status/875310894426841088
@Vinny_LBC: @LBC Jeremy says emergency services need support and investigation/inquiry needs the full weight of government behind it0 -
@BBCPhilipSim: SNP backbenchers go absolutely bananas as Kezia Dugdale says education policies show that "if you vote SNP you get Tory" #FMQs0
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@kezdugdale: Nicola Sturgeon loses 500,000 SNP votes and it's apparently my fault. Perhaps she should widen the scope of her period of reflection #fmqs0
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Nasty, nasty, nasty.TOPPING said:Typically misleading article from the Guardian
https://theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jun/14/london-fire-grenfell-tower-blaze-puts-emergency-service-cuts-in-sharp-focus
Cuts may well be in focus but the snide innuendo suggesting cuts were a factor in this instance when the only quote directly contradicts this ("others couldn't speak freely" - why?) shows why Labour must never be in power for the next 500 years.0 -
You might have no faith but 40% of voters are starting to think it might be worth a punt.As the lot currently in charge have no vision of their own , just saying the other lot are crap is loosing it's effect after 7 years.SouthamObserver said:
To quote myself: "I have no faith in the ability of a Corbyn-led government to provide any long-term solutions to the problems that the UK has." Not sure how that is hubristic.Mortimer said:FPT:
As I've posted several times, having just recovered from a bout of hubris I'm in a tremendous position to call it out when I see it. All the warning signs are there:SouthamObserver said:
Hubris is advantage.Mortimer said:
I smell hubris.SouthamObserver said:
He leader.Alice_Aforethought said:
So he has no better ideas but is complaining anyway?SouthamObserver said:
It'sin.Alice_Aforethought said:
The thing is, I feel that way when I read that millions in the third world die because they cook indoors with smokey fuel because western liberals' preoccupation with global warming has made clean fuel like LPG too expensive. I feel that way when there are food shortages because food crops are being bought up by the highest bidder and turned into car fuel.SouthamObserver said:Slackbladder said:
It's right to ask questions, but we need investigations, not lynch mobs.calum said:
I expect we will get a full blown 'judge-led' inquiry into this affair.
What if the fire was caused by flammable building materials, used to meet green energy efficiency targets?
I at hospitals.
Likewise better?
There are areas of differentiation between parties but the quality of the NHS and building safety aren't among them.
How many million votes did the Blue Meanies win, remind me, last week?
- ignoring the views of those who disagree with you
- ignoring the mass divisions within those considering voting for Jez
- ignoring what many who you need to vote for you would stand to lose from a Jez government
- seeing every single news item as a reason why you're going to win
I have been VERY circumspect since last Thursday night. I'm beginning to wonder if the social media age makes government nigh on impossible.0 -
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It does suggest a clear majority for Brexit but of the soft Brexit variety which would favour someone like HammondHYUFD said:
Does this maybe imply there could still be a way for Con to salvage this in a second election if they bin May and get a leader who is likable and who the public would trust with Brexit?GIN1138 said:
It's not just Brexit though it's also the personality and Hammond is as dull as May (+ I sense he may have been behind a lot of the manifesto disasters like WFA and Dementia tax)
They need someone who is plausible on Brexit and also has a bit of charisma....0 -
Says a lot about Salmond.AndyJS said:Gordon was an pretty astonishing result. The Conservatives went from 12% to 41% to take the seat from Salmond.
He rued the day.0 -
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The SNP are at greater risk than the Tories because SCon and SLAB are now quite close in voteshare giving plenty of opportunity for unionist tactical voting depending on who is best placed to win each seat, Labour though in the UK got more than 30% more voteshare than the LDs giving much less opportunity for further tactical voting for Labour against the Tories in England and Wales0
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Yup, support for Indy is in a completely different place now. Well, a bit different. Ok, a teeny bit different.calum said:Driven by 27% of SLAB voters !
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/8753093298801418250 -
They are on the run.Scott_P said:@BBCPhilipSim: SNP backbenchers go absolutely bananas as Kezia Dugdale says education policies show that "if you vote SNP you get Tory" #FMQs
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He is no fool. I called this wrong. I thought Brexit would increase demand for independence. The other main thing I got wrong incidentally is that I thought Brexit would make no difference to immigration beyond the inevitable recession effect. I underestimated how much immigration is affected by making would-be immigrants unwelcome.SeanT said:
Actually, malcolmg made a very prescient remark about Brexit, and its potential effect on indy, about ten months ago.GIN1138 said:
I wonder what Malc will make of it?TheScreamingEagles said:It was a real pleasure to publish this thread.
He said that if Brexit was seen to be difficult, and if it was seen to cause political instability, then that would be seriously bad for the independence cause, and seriously bad for the SNP, as another vote for another kind of separation would look really unappetising.
Turns out he was right.
He may have a limited capacity for root-vegetable related insults, but malcolmg is no fool.0 -
Not during the A50 period they won't.Richard_Nabavi said:
The Bank of England edged closer to raising interest rates this month as a deeper split emerged among its committee of policymakers, with three of the eight voting for an immediate rate rise to keep inflation in check.Pulpstar said:
Is it ?Richard_Nabavi said:Blimey - three MPC members (out of eight) voted to increase interest rates. That's a corker of a surprise.
I'm fully expecting interest rates to go up shortly. I'm surprised you aren't.
The 5-3 split vote to keep interest rates at their record low of 0.25% will surprise financial markets. Most City economists had expected just one member, Kristin Forbes, would maintain her previous vote for rates to be raised to 0.5%. Instead she was joined by Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/jun/15/markets-bank-of-england-retail-sales-greek-debt-talks-business-live
I'm not expecting interest rates to rise soon. The economy is getting more fragile, not less.
Of course, the MPC are in a bind - the combination of rising inflation and a weakening economy is a nasty one.0 -
People criticised Churchills reaction to the great smog in London in 1952.Scott_P said:0 -
Interesting article in the Spectator:
"Last Monday’s political cabinet soon ended up comparing notes about an aggressive left-wing tide moving across the country. They lamented how Tory posters were defaced, the venom on social media, and how pro-Corbyn students seem to be. It took the Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson, who has had to deal with the cyber-Nats and far worse, to point out that her English colleagues had better get used to this. She told them she had just spent months having been accused of being a ‘rape apologist’ because of the Tory policy of exempting rape victims from its two-child tax credits cap."
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/06/introducing-the-new-improved-maybot-3000/0 -
Just wait until labour get in, then we'll see real inflation and interest rate increases.Pulpstar said:
Is it ?Richard_Nabavi said:Blimey - three MPC members (out of eight) voted to increase interest rates. That's a corker of a surprise.
I'm fully expecting interest rates to go up shortly. I'm surprised you aren't.0 -
To quote yourself:SouthamObserver said:
To quote myself: "I have no faith in the ability of a Corbyn-led government to provide any long-term solutions to the problems that the UK has." Not sure how that is hubristic.Mortimer said:FPT:
As I've posted several times, having just recovered from a bout of hubris I'm in a tremendous position to call it out when I see it. All the warning signs are there:SouthamObserver said:
Hubris is advantage.Mortimer said:
I smell hubris.SouthamObserver said:
He leader.Alice_Aforethought said:
So he has no better ideas but is complaining anyway?SouthamObserver said:
It'sin.Alice_Aforethought said:
The thing is, I feel that way when I read that millions in the third world die because they cook indoors with smokey fuel because western liberals' preoccupation with global warming has made clean fuel like LPG too expensive. I feel that way when there are food shortages because food crops are being bought up by the highest bidder and turned into car fuel.SouthamObserver said:Slackbladder said:
It's right to ask questions, but we need investigations, not lynch mobs.calum said:
I expect we will get a full blown 'judge-led' inquiry into this affair.
What if the fire was caused by flammable building materials, used to meet green energy efficiency targets?
I at hospitals.
Likewise better?
There are areas of differentiation between parties but the quality of the NHS and building safety aren't among them.
How many million votes did the Blue Meanies win, remind me, last week?
- ignoring the views of those who disagree with you
- ignoring the mass divisions within those considering voting for Jez
- ignoring what many who you need to vote for you would stand to lose from a Jez government
- seeing every single news item as a reason why you're going to win
I have been VERY circumspect since last Thursday night. I'm beginning to wonder if the social media age makes government nigh on impossible.
"I also suspect that this may lead to many more Labour gains in Scotland, more in London and a few more in the North and even, perhaps, parts of the Midlands. I also think the LibDems will benefit form tactical voting and that if the Tories are not careful they will find themselves out of power - especially with the Brexit shambles they have foisted upon us beginning to unwind not to the UK's advantage"
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Most immigration is driven by money.FF43 said:
He is no fool. I called this wrong. I thought Brexit would increase demand for independence. The other main thing I got wrong incidentally is that I thought Brexit would make no difference to immigration beyond the inevitable recession effect. I underestimated how much immigration is affected by making would-be immigrants unwelcome.SeanT said:
Actually, malcolmg made a very prescient remark about Brexit, and its potential effect on indy, about ten months ago.GIN1138 said:
I wonder what Malc will make of it?TheScreamingEagles said:It was a real pleasure to publish this thread.
He said that if Brexit was seen to be difficult, and if it was seen to cause political instability, then that would be seriously bad for the independence cause, and seriously bad for the SNP, as another vote for another kind of separation would look really unappetising.
Turns out he was right.
He may have a limited capacity for root-vegetable related insults, but malcolmg is no fool.0 -
The Scotcon result was the only great bright spot of election night for me. Long-term though Scotlab will benefit most from any further weakening of the Nat brand. Predicting anything these days is nigh on impossible but the early signs shown by Corbyn's failure to embrace all of the Parliamentary party in his reshuffle suggests plenty of obstacles in the way yet of much greater success for Labour in the UK. They have a poll boost for now and I expect that to last a while but the Tory brand is also very resilient which a number of posters on here over the past few days have completely forgotten.
One of the oddest features of the overall result was the fact that even with a disastrous campaign the Tories gained 5+%.What they need soonish is a good leader and some interesting policies. I do wish Cameron and Osborne were back... or failing that some new blood as there is nothing in the current Cabinet to inspire.0 -
Well it is going to happen.Slackbladder said:
Just wait until labour get in, then we'll see real inflation and interest rate increases.Pulpstar said:
Is it ?Richard_Nabavi said:Blimey - three MPC members (out of eight) voted to increase interest rates. That's a corker of a surprise.
I'm fully expecting interest rates to go up shortly. I'm surprised you aren't.0 -
I'm sure PM Jeremy would have an answer to that little conundrum.Richard_Nabavi said:
The Bank of England edged closer to raising interest rates this month as a deeper split emerged among its committee of policymakers, with three of the eight voting for an immediate rate rise to keep inflation in check.Pulpstar said:
Is it ?Richard_Nabavi said:Blimey - three MPC members (out of eight) voted to increase interest rates. That's a corker of a surprise.
I'm fully expecting interest rates to go up shortly. I'm surprised you aren't.
The 5-3 split vote to keep interest rates at their record low of 0.25% will surprise financial markets. Most City economists had expected just one member, Kristin Forbes, would maintain her previous vote for rates to be raised to 0.5%. Instead she was joined by Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/jun/15/markets-bank-of-england-retail-sales-greek-debt-talks-business-live
I'm not expecting interest rates to rise soon. The economy is getting more fragile, not less.
Of course, the MPC are in a bind - the combination of rising inflation and a weakening economy is a nasty one.0 -
GIN1138 said:
It does suggest a clear majority for Brexit but of the soft Brexit variety which would favour someone like HammondHYUFD said:
Does this maybe imply there could still be a way for Con to salvage this in a second election if they bin May and get a leader who is likable and who the public would trust with Brexit?GIN1138 said:
It's not just Brexit though it's also the personality and Hammond is as dull as May (+ I sense he may have been behind a lot of the manifesto disasters like WFA and Dementia tax)
They need someone who is plausible on Brexit and also has a bit of charisma....
Hammond is dull and shrewd enough for the negotiations and given neither the Tories nor SNP want an election anytime soon it could be 2022 before we next have a general election. Hammond pushed through the NI rise because he was reported to oppose the estate tax May backed and which cost her so badly when she forced Hammond to reverse the NI rise which did far less damage to the Tories in the polls than the dementia tax she imposed instead0 -
They are going to have to react to it in the same way she did, give as good as you get rather than avoiding it.AndyJS said:Interesting article in the Spectator:
"Last Monday’s political cabinet soon ended up comparing notes about an aggressive left-wing tide moving across the country. They lamented how Tory posters were defaced, the venom on social media, and how pro-Corbyn students seem to be. It took the Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson, who has had to deal with the cyber-Nats and far worse, to point out that her English colleagues had better get used to this. She told them she had just spent months having been accused of being a ‘rape apologist’ because of the Tory policy of exempting rape victims from its two-child tax credits cap."
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/06/introducing-the-new-improved-maybot-3000/0 -
Monetary policy via meme.TOPPING said:
I'm sure PM Jeremy would have an answer to that little conundrum.Richard_Nabavi said:
The Bank of England edged closer to raising interest rates this month as a deeper split emerged among its committee of policymakers, with three of the eight voting for an immediate rate rise to keep inflation in check.Pulpstar said:
Is it ?Richard_Nabavi said:Blimey - three MPC members (out of eight) voted to increase interest rates. That's a corker of a surprise.
I'm fully expecting interest rates to go up shortly. I'm surprised you aren't.
The 5-3 split vote to keep interest rates at their record low of 0.25% will surprise financial markets. Most City economists had expected just one member, Kristin Forbes, would maintain her previous vote for rates to be raised to 0.5%. Instead she was joined by Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/jun/15/markets-bank-of-england-retail-sales-greek-debt-talks-business-live
I'm not expecting interest rates to rise soon. The economy is getting more fragile, not less.
Of course, the MPC are in a bind - the combination of rising inflation and a weakening economy is a nasty one.0 -
A bind of their own making, I am afraid. By keeping rates ultra-low during the economic growth of the last five years, they've left themselves with nowhere else to go.Richard_Nabavi said:
The Bank of England edged closer to raising interest rates this month as a deeper split emerged among its committee of policymakers, with three of the eight voting for an immediate rate rise to keep inflation in check.Pulpstar said:
Is it ?Richard_Nabavi said:Blimey - three MPC members (out of eight) voted to increase interest rates. That's a corker of a surprise.
I'm fully expecting interest rates to go up shortly. I'm surprised you aren't.
The 5-3 split vote to keep interest rates at their record low of 0.25% will surprise financial markets. Most City economists had expected just one member, Kristin Forbes, would maintain her previous vote for rates to be raised to 0.5%. Instead she was joined by Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/jun/15/markets-bank-of-england-retail-sales-greek-debt-talks-business-live
I'm not expecting interest rates to rise soon. The economy is getting more fragile, not less.
Of course, the MPC are in a bind - the combination of rising inflation and a weakening economy is a nasty one.0 -
I thought that had been disproved? I am only going from memory but when it was portrayed in the Queen Elizabeth series loads of historians pointed out that it was not considered a disaster and politicians were not criticised because it was only after the event that it was realised how many people had died. The outcry (what there was of it) and law changes to prevent recurrence were retrospective.Yorkcity said:
People criticised Churchills reaction to the great smog in London in 1952.Scott_P said:0 -
On Election Day in my office we had a discussion about how to vote. One of my colleagues was about to buy a house and acquire a mortgage.
My view then was that if we had a conservative majority of, say, 60 it was likely that interest would raise this month. However if we were to have a hung parliament, the uncertainty caused could well be sufficient for a vote not to increase.
Whether that influenced my colleague's vote I do not know.0 -
Yes very much so. The issue has become May and her personality, her dithering on some issues and failure to move on others. It is all around May.GIN1138 said:
Does this maybe imply there could still be a way for Con to salvage this in a second election if they bin May and get a leader who is likable and who the public would trust with Brexit?
I am not saying that it will by any means solve all the problems but when you have people like me who are instinctively anti-Corbyn thinking that May is not much better then you surely have to say that things will be better if she is gone. Plus that is the narrative that has built up.
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Being a matter of life and death, the fire regs. should be updated every 2-3 years or so. But apparently not so:TOPPING said:Typically misleading article from the Guardian
https://theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jun/14/london-fire-grenfell-tower-blaze-puts-emergency-service-cuts-in-sharp-focus
Cuts may well be in focus but the snide innuendo suggesting cuts were a factor in this instance when the only quote directly contradicts this ("others couldn't speak freely" - why?) shows why Labour must never be in power for the next 500 years.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jun/14/disaster-waiting-to-happen-fire-expert-slams-uk-tower-blocks0 -
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Does this maybe imply there could still be a way for Con to salvage this in a second election if they bin May and get a leader who is likable and who the public would trust with Brexit?GIN1138 said:
Anything is possible. But, I doubt it with May as leader.
A Boris-Davidson combo would have the stardust, but Boris can't be PM.
A technically competent team would be Davis-Gove, Davis as PM and Gove in DexEU, but unpopular.0 -
I'll say this for you, despite your 473 positions on any given subject, you've remained remarkably consistent on the 'no 2nd referendum, indy is dead, the UK will endure' line. That you're now saying 'no 2nd referendum, indy is dead, the UK will endure' isn't entirely persuasive, mind.SeanT said:
These YES/NO polls are increasingly less important than the "Do you want another vote" polls.Theuniondivvie said:
Yup, support for Indy is in a completely different place now. Well, a bit different. Ok, a teeny bit different.calum said:Driven by 27% of SLAB voters !
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/875309329880141825
If people were that keen on indy then they would want another referendum NOW.
And yet 60% do not want a vote now, and only 27% do. Just 27%.
Indy is becoming a distant aspiration, a fond and patriotic day dream, rather than a hard alternative, seriously desired.
I'd wait to see what the actual 'do you want another vote' (when, in what circumstances?) q is before breaking out the British sparkling wine.0 -
My Scottish colleagues are all unionists. Their vote in this election was pro-union, and that meant voting for whomever would dislodge the SNP. Which explains the vast swings to Tories / Lab / LibDem in various seats as most people went behind one as the stop Nicola candidate.0
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Interesting article Alastair - thank you0
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"Nick Timothy sticks the knife into election guru Sir Lynton Crosby over the Tory poll disaster"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4603966/Nick-Timothy-criticises-Sir-Lynton-Crosby-election.html0 -
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Anything is possible. But, I doubt it with May as leader.Casino_Royale said:
Does this maybe imply there could still be a way for Con to salvage this in a second election if they bin May and get a leader who is likable and who the public would trust with Brexit?GIN1138 said:
A Boris-Davidson combo would have the stardust, but Boris can't be PM.
A technically competent team would be Davis-Gove, Davis as PM and Gove in DexEU, but unpopular.
Last time Boris and Gove were in the running but it ended up as May vs Leadsome. So you could end up with someone worse than May.0 -
@JournoStephen: On Brexit, @LewisMacdMSP tells Nicola Sturgeon: "She can't be sitting at the top table and heading for the exit at the same time." #fmqs0
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@PippaCrerar: BREAKING: Sadiq Khan calling for full public inquiry into #GrenfellTower inferno0
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Not sure how that is hubris. I do think that Corbyn has tapped into something and I do think that this will see Labour make more gains if the Tories are not very careful.Mortimer said:
To quote yourself:SouthamObserver said:
To quote myself: "I have no faith in the ability of a Corbyn-led government to provide any long-term solutions to the problems that the UK has." Not sure how that is hubristic.Mortimer said:FPT:
As I've posted several times, having just recovered from a bout of hubris I'm in a tremendous position to call it out when I see it. All the warning signs are there:SouthamObserver said:
Hubris is advantage.Mortimer said:
I smell hubris.SouthamObserver said:
He leader.Alice_Aforethought said:
So he has no better ideas but is complaining anyway?SouthamObserver said:
It'sin.Alice_Aforethought said:
The into car fuel.SouthamObserver said:Slackbladder said:
It's right to ask questions, but we need investigations, not lynch mobs.calum said:
I expect we will get a full blown 'judge-led' inquiry into this affair.
What if the fire was caused by flammable building materials, used to meet green energy efficiency targets?
I at hospitals.
Likewise better?
There are areas of differentiation between parties but the quality of the NHS and building safety aren't among them.
How many million votes did the Blue Meanies win, remind me, last week?
- ignoring the views of those who disagree with you
- ignoring the mass divisions within those considering voting for Jez
- ignoring what many who you need to vote for you would stand to lose from a Jez government
- seeing every single news item as a reason why you're going to win
I have been VERY circumspect since last Thursday night. I'm beginning to wonder if the social media age makes government nigh on impossible.
"I also suspect that this may lead to many more Labour gains in Scotland, more in London and a few more in the North and even, perhaps, parts of the Midlands. I also think the LibDems will benefit form tactical voting and that if the Tories are not careful they will find themselves out of power - especially with the Brexit shambles they have foisted upon us beginning to unwind not to the UK's advantage"
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Anything is possible. But, I doubt it with May as leader.Casino_Royale said:
Does this maybe imply there could still be a way for Con to salvage this in a second election if they bin May and get a leader who is likable and who the public would trust with Brexit?GIN1138 said:
A Boris-Davidson combo would have the stardust, but Boris can't be PM.
A technically competent team would be Davis-Gove, Davis as PM and Gove in DexEU, but unpopular.
Hammond as PM +Davidson on Scotland with Gove or Davis as Chancellor would be the best longer term bet but the Tories will try and go as far into the 5 year term as possible without an election, secretly backed by the SNP on that0 -
Does this maybe imply there could still be a way for Con to salvage this in a second election if they bin May and get a leader who is likable and who the public would trust with Brexit?GIN1138 said:
The problem is that while theoretical Brexit gets majority support, and actual Brexit plan is likely to have a majority against.
We have Schrodingers Brexit, where we dare not open the box.0 -
@elliotttimes: May to Foster: 'Come and have a go if you think you're hard enough'. About to discover whether she's as good a negotiator as she claims...calum said:SNIP
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As I suggested last week, the "blame Nick Timothy and the manifesto" meme was partly Lynton Crosby getting his retaliation in first. Leaving aside the manifesto, it was a shockingly bad campaign (run by Crosby).calum said:
Moving resources away from "safe" seats that were lost would have been based partly on bad polling (by Textor Crosby). There's plenty of blame to go round.0 -
0
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Maybe the SNP should argue that if we get the 2nd referendum out of the way soon, it'll give us time for a bit of a rest before the 3rd oneTheuniondivvie said:
I'll say this for you, despite your 473 positions on any given subject, you've remained remarkably consistent on the 'no 2nd referendum, indy is dead, the UK will endure' line. That you're now saying 'no 2nd referendum, indy is dead, the UK will endure' isn't entirely persuasive, mind.SeanT said:
These YES/NO polls are increasingly less important than the "Do you want another vote" polls.Theuniondivvie said:
Yup, support for Indy is in a completely different place now. Well, a bit different. Ok, a teeny bit different.calum said:Driven by 27% of SLAB voters !
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/875309329880141825
If people were that keen on indy then they would want another referendum NOW.
And yet 60% do not want a vote now, and only 27% do. Just 27%.
Indy is becoming a distant aspiration, a fond and patriotic day dream, rather than a hard alternative, seriously desired.
I'd wait to see what the actual 'do you want another vote' (when, in what circumstances?) q is before breaking out the British sparkling wine.0 -
I voted Yes in 2014, SNP the following year and then SNP again in last year's Scottish general election. I switched to Labour last week, partly because of the SNP's line on the EU - I voted for Brexit - but mainly because for over a year now they have treated the governance of Scotland as if it is on a par with running a student union. The constant campaign for IndyRef2 has become tiresome and I want the party to govern the country using the powers that were given under the new Scotland Act.
I am quite happy to see the SNP as the major party, but did not want them to remain as the hegemonic one, so last week's result has left me very happy indeed.0 -
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@bbclaurak: PM orders full public inquiry into events at Grenfell0
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I totally agree. Corbyn has tapped into a quiet rage that many millions of people across the country feel, They, quite rightly, see a system that is not working for them and a society in which they have no real stake. Corbyn articulates that and speaks for them. I totally underestimated him and his appeal. But I still don't agree with his solutions!Yorkcity said:
You might have no faith but 40% of voters are starting to think it might be worth a punt.As the lot currently in charge have no vision of their own , just saying the other lot are crap is loosing it's effect after 7 years.SouthamObserver said:
To quote myself: "I have no faith in the ability of a Corbyn-led government to provide any long-term solutions to the problems that the UK has." Not sure how that is hubristic.Mortimer said:FPT:
As I've posted several times, having just recovered from a bout of hubris I'm in a tremendous position to call it out when I see it. All the warning signs are there:SouthamObserver said:
Hubris is advantage.Mortimer said:
I smell hubris.SouthamObserver said:
He leader.Alice_Aforethought said:
So he has no better ideas but is complaining anyway?SouthamObserver said:
It'sin.Alice_Aforethought said:
The thing is, fuel.SouthamObserver said:Slackbladder said:
It's right to ask questions, but we need investigations, not lynch mobs.calum said:
I expect we will get a full blown 'judge-led' inquiry into this affair.
What if the fire was caused by flammable building materials, used to meet green energy efficiency targets?
I at hospitals.
Likewise better?
There are areas of differentiation between parties but the quality of the NHS and building safety aren't among them.
How many million votes did the Blue Meanies win, remind me, last week?
- ignoring the views of those who disagree with you
- ignoring the mass divisions within those considering voting for Jez
- ignoring what many who you need to vote for you would stand to lose from a Jez government
- seeing every single news item as a reason why you're going to win
I have been VERY circumspect since last Thursday night. I'm beginning to wonder if the social media age makes government nigh on impossible.
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Wise move, shoots Corbyn's fox on demanding one (and it's the right thing to do of course!).Scott_P said:@bbclaurak: PM orders full public inquiry into events at Grenfell
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It's worth remembering that Crosby was the mastermind behind Goldsmith's disastrous London mayoral campaign last year.DecrepitJohnL said:
As I suggested last week, the "blame Nick Timothy and the manifesto" meme was partly Lynton Crosby getting his retaliation in first. Leaving aside the manifesto, it was a shockingly bad campaign (run by Crosby).calum said:
Moving resources away from "safe" seats that were lost would have been based partly on bad polling (by Textor Crosby). There's plenty of blame to go round.
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Re conservatives and DUP. No deal is better than a bad deal?0
This discussion has been closed.