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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The biggest loser. How Nicola Sturgeon did even worse than TMa
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The biggest loser. How Nicola Sturgeon did even worse than TMay
General elections are like forest fires for party leaders. Within 24 hours of the 2015 election, Ed Mliband, Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage had all resigned. Paul Nuttall resigned as promptly after last week’s election, after the disappointing but expected loss of UKIP’s sole MP. Tim Farron resigned before a week was out despite increasing the Lib Dems’ seat tally by a third. Theresa May clings on by her fingernails, having lost 13 seats and the Conservatives’ majority.
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Let the vitriol commence.....
But what about strong?
https://www.ft.com/content/76037a34-36ef-11e7-99bd-13beb0903fa3
Ruth maintained peak Scottish Tory unlike Theresa, the height of which was gaining Gordon - which noone had on the radar.
At least the Nats actually got a General election result at their peak !
I wish him the joy of his bargain!
https://theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jun/14/london-fire-grenfell-tower-blaze-puts-emergency-service-cuts-in-sharp-focus
Cuts may well be in focus but the snide innuendo suggesting cuts were a factor in this instance when the only quote directly contradicts this ("others couldn't speak freely" - why?) shows why Labour must never be in power for the next 500 years.
- ignoring the views of those who disagree with you
- ignoring the mass divisions within those considering voting for Jez
- ignoring what many who you need to vote for you would stand to lose from a Jez government
- seeing every single news item as a reason why you're going to win
I have been VERY circumspect since last Thursday night. I'm beginning to wonder if the social media age makes government nigh on impossible.
I just hope Alastair knows how to cook turnips.
Does this maybe imply there could still be a way for Con to salvage this in a second election if they bin May and get a leader who is likable and who the public would trust with Brexit?
I have internal irreconcilable differences of opinion I'm afraid.
I'm fully expecting interest rates to go up shortly. I'm surprised you aren't.
@EddieBarnes23: Ruth: 60% of people say they don't want a 2nd indyref. Shouldn't the FM listen to them?
FM: (I paraphrase, a bit): No
#FMQs
@JournoStephen: Sturgeon says she will reflect and decide her party's position on #indyref2. Not the SNP, not members, not conference delegates. Her. #FMQs
https://twitter.com/vinny_lbc/status/875310894426841088
@Vinny_LBC: @LBC Jeremy says emergency services need support and investigation/inquiry needs the full weight of government behind it
(2) How many of the remaining SNP seats are vulnerable to the Conservatives?
The 5-3 split vote to keep interest rates at their record low of 0.25% will surprise financial markets. Most City economists had expected just one member, Kristin Forbes, would maintain her previous vote for rates to be raised to 0.5%. Instead she was joined by Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/jun/15/markets-bank-of-england-retail-sales-greek-debt-talks-business-live
I'm not expecting interest rates to rise soon. The economy is getting more fragile, not less.
Of course, the MPC are in a bind - the combination of rising inflation and a weakening economy is a nasty one.
It does suggest a clear majority for Brexit but of the soft Brexit variety which would favour someone like Hammond
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/875309329880141825
Are the SNP thinking at all about a new strategy, though?
It seems entirely like BAU to me.
More difficult for people with a mortgage, but rates have been historically low for a decade.
The problem with full membership is that a democratic decision was taken to reject it. It can only be readopted by another democratic decision that explicitly admits we made a mistake.
Everything else is a car crash.
EEA is what it has to be IMO. It does leave open the possibility of moving back to the EU later.
Soon, we will live in interesting times
It's not just Brexit though it's also the personality and Hammond is as dull as May (+ I sense he may have been behind a lot of the manifesto disasters like WFA and Dementia tax)
They need someone who is plausible on Brexit and also has a bit of charisma....
He rued the day.
"Last Monday’s political cabinet soon ended up comparing notes about an aggressive left-wing tide moving across the country. They lamented how Tory posters were defaced, the venom on social media, and how pro-Corbyn students seem to be. It took the Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson, who has had to deal with the cyber-Nats and far worse, to point out that her English colleagues had better get used to this. She told them she had just spent months having been accused of being a ‘rape apologist’ because of the Tory policy of exempting rape victims from its two-child tax credits cap."
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/06/introducing-the-new-improved-maybot-3000/
"I also suspect that this may lead to many more Labour gains in Scotland, more in London and a few more in the North and even, perhaps, parts of the Midlands. I also think the LibDems will benefit form tactical voting and that if the Tories are not careful they will find themselves out of power - especially with the Brexit shambles they have foisted upon us beginning to unwind not to the UK's advantage"
One of the oddest features of the overall result was the fact that even with a disastrous campaign the Tories gained 5+%.What they need soonish is a good leader and some interesting policies. I do wish Cameron and Osborne were back... or failing that some new blood as there is nothing in the current Cabinet to inspire.
It's not just Brexit though it's also the personality and Hammond is as dull as May (+ I sense he may have been behind a lot of the manifesto disasters like WFA and Dementia tax)
They need someone who is plausible on Brexit and also has a bit of charisma....
Hammond is dull and shrewd enough for the negotiations and given neither the Tories nor SNP want an election anytime soon it could be 2022 before we next have a general election. Hammond pushed through the NI rise because he was reported to oppose the estate tax May backed and which cost her so badly when she forced Hammond to reverse the NI rise which did far less damage to the Tories in the polls than the dementia tax she imposed instead
My view then was that if we had a conservative majority of, say, 60 it was likely that interest would raise this month. However if we were to have a hung parliament, the uncertainty caused could well be sufficient for a vote not to increase.
Whether that influenced my colleague's vote I do not know.
I am not saying that it will by any means solve all the problems but when you have people like me who are instinctively anti-Corbyn thinking that May is not much better then you surely have to say that things will be better if she is gone. Plus that is the narrative that has built up.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jun/14/disaster-waiting-to-happen-fire-expert-slams-uk-tower-blocks
Anything is possible. But, I doubt it with May as leader.
A Boris-Davidson combo would have the stardust, but Boris can't be PM.
A technically competent team would be Davis-Gove, Davis as PM and Gove in DexEU, but unpopular.
I'd wait to see what the actual 'do you want another vote' (when, in what circumstances?) q is before breaking out the British sparkling wine.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4603966/Nick-Timothy-criticises-Sir-Lynton-Crosby-election.html
A Boris-Davidson combo would have the stardust, but Boris can't be PM.
A technically competent team would be Davis-Gove, Davis as PM and Gove in DexEU, but unpopular.
Last time Boris and Gove were in the running but it ended up as May vs Leadsome. So you could end up with someone worse than May.
A Boris-Davidson combo would have the stardust, but Boris can't be PM.
A technically competent team would be Davis-Gove, Davis as PM and Gove in DexEU, but unpopular.
Hammond as PM +Davidson on Scotland with Gove or Davis as Chancellor would be the best longer term bet but the Tories will try and go as far into the 5 year term as possible without an election, secretly backed by the SNP on that
The problem is that while theoretical Brexit gets majority support, and actual Brexit plan is likely to have a majority against.
We have Schrodingers Brexit, where we dare not open the box.
Moving resources away from "safe" seats that were lost would have been based partly on bad polling (by Textor Crosby). There's plenty of blame to go round.
Bigly.
I am quite happy to see the SNP as the major party, but did not want them to remain as the hegemonic one, so last week's result has left me very happy indeed.