The result really should terrify the Conservatives. For 15 years they dreamt of unifying the right by embracing Brexitism and winning back UKIP voters, believing that such a voting coalition would crush their Labour enemies, and having finally done it, it only gave them a hung parliament.
They've now tied themselves to a doomed endeavour. If they can't reverse course they will go down with it, and a new pro-European centre-right political force will need to emerge.
Since when did Cameron et al embrace Brexitism? He called the referendum in the hope of killing it off stone dead by permanently "docking" the UK to the EU.
I meant that the anti-Cameroons dreamt of that strategy. They thought that appealing to the centre ground was a waste of time when they had 4 million UKIP voters to tap. We now have real electoral evidence that Cameron was right, and they were wrong.
We have real electoral evidence that your stance on the EU is backed by a very small minority.
I mean, Kate Hoey got 31,000 votes when Gina Miller thought she'd be defeated.
How did Victoria Borwick do?
About the same as Jane Ellison and Justine Greening.
Hoey was ramped as a specific target by Remainers.
So Brexit had nothing to do with her losing her seat? It's a view.
As I didn't say that its not a view.
When its only 20 votes any number of reasons are involved and Brexit was probably one of them.
Nevertheless the Leaver Borwick had an equivalent fall in votes to Remainer Conservatives in inner London.
Because the threat of Brexit or at least hard Brexit is associated with the unattractive electorally right wing of the Tories. With a half sane leader Labour would have won on Thursday. Easily.
A big problem for the Conservatives is that both the left wing and the right wing think that the other faction is making them unpopular, and they don't realise that they each need the other.
Maybe so..strikes me the right of the party are obsessed with Europe to the exclusion of almost all else however.
Indeed. The frothers have once again wrecked the party. It was ever thus.
The result really should terrify the Conservatives. For 15 years they dreamt of unifying the right by embracing Brexitism and winning back UKIP voters, believing that such a voting coalition would crush their Labour enemies, and having finally done it, it only gave them a hung parliament.
They've now tied themselves to a doomed endeavour. If they can't reverse course they will go down with it, and a new pro-European centre-right political force will need to emerge.
Since when did Cameron et al embrace Brexitism? He called the referendum in the hope of killing it off stone dead by permanently "docking" the UK to the EU.
I meant that the anti-Cameroons dreamt of that strategy. They thought that appealing to the centre ground was a waste of time when they had 4 million UKIP voters to tap. We now have real electoral evidence that Cameron was right, and they were wrong.
We have real electoral evidence that your stance on the EU is backed by a very small minority.
I mean, Kate Hoey got 31,000 votes when Gina Miller thought she'd be defeated.
How did Victoria Borwick do?
About the same as Jane Ellison and Justine Greening.
Hoey was ramped as a specific target by Remainers.
So Brexit had nothing to do with her losing her seat? It's a view.
As I didn't say that its not a view.
When its only 20 votes any number of reasons are involved and Brexit was probably one of them.
Nevertheless the Leaver Borwick had an equivalent fall in votes to Remainer Conservatives in inner London.
Because the threat of Brexit or at least hard Brexit is associated with the unattractive electorally right wing of the Tories. With a half sane leader Labour would have won on Thursday. Easily.
A big problem for the Conservatives is that both the left wing and the right wing think that the other faction is making them unpopular, and they don't realise that they each need the other.
Maybe so..strikes me the right of the party are obsessed with Europe to the exclusion of almost all else however.
Indeed. The frothers have once again wrecked the party. It was ever thus.
If it has then the the Tories are truly fucked, they are relying on dying demographic.
Ah yes another variation of "the Tories will never win again". Why do people never learn?
I'd say the Tories never learn. The only time they've won a majority since 92 is on a socially Liberal, fiscally dry platform. Banging on about hard Brexit, fox hunting and using the DUP lead me to expect will be getting songs and poetry about single mothers at party conference time again soon.
You mean the election when they promised no tax rises, spending increases all round and encouraged fear of Scottish politicians ?
If it has then the the Tories are truly fucked, they are relying on dying demographic.
Ah yes another variation of "the Tories will never win again". Why do people never learn?
Since 1992 the Tories have won a (small) majority in just one of the 6 subsequent election, including 3 elections where they scored less than 200.
Think that the Conservative brand were seriously toxified in the 1980s and 1990s. To think that the last time they had a comfortable working majority was 1987 - 30 years ago.
question: under the article 50 legislation passed in the last parliament didn't the government frame it parliament gets a vote on the final brexit deal but if parliament rejects the deal we crash out of EU anyway. so hard brexit anyway if deal negotiated is crap
If it has then the the Tories are truly fucked, they are relying on dying demographic.
Ah yes another variation of "the Tories will never win again". Why do people never learn?
I'd say the Tories never learn. The only time they've won a majority since 92 is on a socially Liberal, fiscally dry platform. Banging on about hard Brexit, fox hunting and using the DUP lead me to expect will be getting songs and poetry about single mothers at party conference time again soon.
You mean the election when they promised no tax rises, spending increases all round and encouraged fear of Scottish politicians ?
It's that tax rise refusal which has lead to police cuts and so forth.
A big problem for the Conservatives is that both the left wing and the right wing think that the other faction is making them unpopular, and they don't realise that they each need the other.
Thing is I don't think that is why the Tories have a problem. From the outside looking in prior to the election the party appeared, to me at least, to be more unified than I have ever known it. There were a couple of Eurofanatic headbangers like Clarke and Soubry but they were generally behaving. This problem that has appeared with the Tory party all stems from one single issue - Theresa May. She is not the person to lead either the party or the country and has set the Tory party back decades in just a few short weeks.
If they are ruthless and get rid of May then I do believe there is plenty of common ground between the various wings of the party to allow them to put together an effective programme and start to rebuild public confidence. But May has to go.
If it has then the the Tories are truly fucked, they are relying on dying demographic.
Ah yes another variation of "the Tories will never win again". Why do people never learn?
I'd say the Tories never learn. The only time they've won a majority since 92 is on a socially Liberal, fiscally dry platform. Banging on about hard Brexit, fox hunting and using the DUP lead me to expect will be getting songs and poetry about single mothers at party conference time again soon.
You mean the election when they promised no tax rises, spending increases all round and encouraged fear of Scottish politicians ?
Preferable to the one where they managed to alienate almost every single demographic bar the Northern working class, and in that instance only the ones whose entire family rent their homes? And promised absolutely nothing to anyone. And gave absolutely no inkling they had the faintest clue how to deal with the Brexit they had instigated. And nearly let the most deranged Labour leader in living history become PM. Yep,. Well done on that. Quite the portfolio
If it has then the the Tories are truly fucked, they are relying on dying demographic.
Ah yes another variation of "the Tories will never win again". Why do people never learn?
Since 1992 the Tories have won a (small) majority in just one of the 6 subsequent election, including 3 elections where they scored less than 200.
Think that the Conservative brand were seriously toxified in the 1980s and 1990s. To think that the last time they had a comfortable working majority was 1987 - 30 years ago.
While the last time the non-Blair Labour party won a working majority was in 1966.
Political trends often last a while. What we have had now for a decade is a era of crisis and uncertainty brought on by the effects of globalisation. Its likely to continue.
Happy that there won't be a Con/DUP coalition, at the very least. Presumably, the DUP told May where to go as far as a coalition arrangement was concerned.
A big problem for the Conservatives is that both the left wing and the right wing think that the other faction is making them unpopular, and they don't realise that they each need the other.
Thing is I don't think that is why the Tories have a problem. From the outside looking in prior to the election the party appeared, to me at least, to be more unified than I have ever known it. There were a couple of Eurofanatic headbangers like Clarke and Soubry but they were generally behaving. This problem that has appeared with the Tory party all stems from one single issue - Theresa May. She is not the person to lead either the party or the country and has set the Tory party back decades in just a few short weeks.
If they are ruthless and get rid of May then I do believe there is plenty of common ground between the various wings of the party to allow them to put together an effective programme and start to rebuild public confidence. But May has to go.
That is bad news for the tories. The votes there from middle aged people were overwhelming for Labour. This is not just a 'students want free tuition' vote.
Will be interesting to see if the old idea about getting more conservative as you get older has been turned on its head. If it has then the the Tories are truly fucked, they are relying on dying demographic.
I suspect it is that the older generation have more memories of how shit it really is living under proper Labour. We probably need a bout of Corbynism to keep them out of power again for another 4 decades.
If it has then the the Tories are truly fucked, they are relying on dying demographic.
Ah yes another variation of "the Tories will never win again". Why do people never learn?
I'd say the Tories never learn. The only time they've won a majority since 92 is on a socially Liberal, fiscally dry platform. Banging on about hard Brexit, fox hunting and using the DUP lead me to expect will be getting songs and poetry about single mothers at party conference time again soon.
You mean the election when they promised no tax rises, spending increases all round and encouraged fear of Scottish politicians ?
Preferable to the one where they managed to alienate almost every single demographic bar the Northern working class, and in that instance only the ones whose entire family rent their homes? And promised absolutely nothing to anyone. And gave absolutely no inkling they had the faintest clue how to deal with the Brexit they had instigated. And nearly let the most deranged Labour leader in living history become PM. Yep,. Well done on that. Quite the portfolio
It wasn't the best of campaigns was it.
Still it was probably an accurate indicator to the problems the country will face in the decades to come.
People are saying May sought a full coalition and the DUP insisted on confidence and supply. She can't even negotiate the DUP *into holding power* and she's going to negotiate Brexit!
One good thing about the election is that there is no particular "class" element to the vote any more. That is healthy going forward.
Great big age split though.
Clegg saying no to increasing tuition fees is an interesting 'What if'.
There's a big city-town split as well.
And a big, persistent gender split. Women much more pro-Labour then men, despite the genders of the party leaders. My suspicion is that women are more into issues like health and education and less bothered by IRA/nukes stuff.
A big problem for the Conservatives is that both the left wing and the right wing think that the other faction is making them unpopular, and they don't realise that they each need the other.
Thing is I don't think that is why the Tories have a problem. From the outside looking in prior to the election the party appeared, to me at least, to be more unified than I have ever known it. There were a couple of Eurofanatic headbangers like Clarke and Soubry but they were generally behaving. This problem that has appeared with the Tory party all stems from one single issue - Theresa May. She is not the person to lead either the party or the country and has set the Tory party back decades in just a few short weeks.
If they are ruthless and get rid of May then I do believe there is plenty of common ground between the various wings of the party to allow them to put together an effective programme and start to rebuild public confidence. But May has to go.
The result really should terrify the Conservatives. For 15 years they dreamt of unifying the right by embracing Brexitism and winning back UKIP voters, believing that such a voting coalition would crush their Labour enemies, and having finally done it, it only gave them a hung parliament.
They've now tied themselves to a doomed endeavour. If they can't reverse course they will go down with it, and a new pro-European centre-right political force will need to emerge.
Since when did Cameron et al embrace Brexitism? He called the referendum in the hope of killing it off stone dead by permanently "docking" the UK to the EU.
I meant that the anti-Cameroons dreamt of that strategy. They thought that appealing to the centre ground was a waste of time when they had 4 million UKIP voters to tap. We now have real electoral evidence that Cameron was right, and they were wrong.
We have real electoral evidence that your stance on the EU is backed by a very small minority.
I mean, Kate Hoey got 31,000 votes when Gina Miller thought she'd be defeated.
How did Victoria Borwick do?
About the same as Jane Ellison and Justine Greening.
Hoey was ramped as a specific target by Remainers.
So Brexit had nothing to do with her losing her seat? It's a view.
As I didn't say that its not a view.
When its only 20 votes any number of reasons are involved and Brexit was probably one of them.
Nevertheless the Leaver Borwick had an equivalent fall in votes to Remainer Conservatives in inner London.
Because the threat of Brexit or at least hard Brexit is associated with the unattractive electorally right wing of the Tories. With a half sane leader Labour would have won on Thursday. Easily.
A big problem for the Conservatives is that both the left wing and the right wing think that the other faction is making them unpopular, and they don't realise that they each need the other.
Maybe so..strikes me the right of the party are obsessed with Europe to the exclusion of almost all else however.
The right of the party - you mean people like Osborne? Who decided that cutting disability benefit at the same time as cuttting higher rate tax was sensible?
Off the shelf Norway EEA. Put it for a transition period of 5 years from 2019 so it expires in middle of next parliament.
Brexit bill. Pay for all committed projects and other things we are actually on the hook for, that's it. EU will receive funding if we are under Norway model anyway. Maybe chuck in an extra 10 billion if we can have a fig leaf on free movement.
Take this agreement - put it to the parliament. Watch as headbangers vote no but bulk of Lab/LD/SNP MPs vote yes. Be clear and open that this is a soft brexit transition, so that the opposition parties can't get away with voting it down.
We Brexit in 2019 and join EEA. UKIP lose all MEPs and any remaining political influence. Go to the country in 2021/22 and all parties can present their vision for the future, making it permanent, withdrawing entirely etc. UKIP fail, and tories and labour will likely extend or make indefinite the transitional arrangement.
A big problem for the Conservatives is that both the left wing and the right wing think that the other faction is making them unpopular, and they don't realise that they each need the other.
Thing is I don't think that is why the Tories have a problem. From the outside looking in prior to the election the party appeared, to me at least, to be more unified than I have ever known it. There were a couple of Eurofanatic headbangers like Clarke and Soubry but they were generally behaving. This problem that has appeared with the Tory party all stems from one single issue - Theresa May. She is not the person to lead either the party or the country and has set the Tory party back decades in just a few short weeks.
If they are ruthless and get rid of May then I do believe there is plenty of common ground between the various wings of the party to allow them to put together an effective programme and start to rebuild public confidence. But May has to go.
If it has then the the Tories are truly fucked, they are relying on dying demographic.
Ah yes another variation of "the Tories will never win again". Why do people never learn?
Since 1992 the Tories have won a (small) majority in just one of the 6 subsequent election, including 3 elections where they scored less than 200.
Think that the Conservative brand were seriously toxified in the 1980s and 1990s. To think that the last time they had a comfortable working majority was 1987 - 30 years ago.
While the last time the non-Blair Labour party won a working majority was in 1966.
Political trends often last a while. What we have had now for a decade is a era of crisis and uncertainty brought on by the effects of globalisation. Its likely to continue.
The Labour party under Blair was more to right than previous Labour governments but it was still the Labour party. Much like the Conservative party - which was more socially liberal under David Cameron than under Thatcher - was still the Conservative party.
I don't see any of the big two securing comfortable majorities in the foreseeable future.
If it has then the the Tories are truly fucked, they are relying on dying demographic.
Ah yes another variation of "the Tories will never win again". Why do people never learn?
I'd say the Tories never learn. The only time they've won a majority since 92 is on a socially Liberal, fiscally dry platform. Banging on about hard Brexit, fox hunting and using the DUP lead me to expect will be getting songs and poetry about single mothers at party conference time again soon.
You mean the election when they promised no tax rises, spending increases all round and encouraged fear of Scottish politicians ?
Preferable to the one where they managed to alienate almost every single demographic bar the Northern working class, and in that instance only the ones whose entire family rent their homes? And promised absolutely nothing to anyone. And gave absolutely no inkling they had the faintest clue how to deal with the Brexit they had instigated. And nearly let the most deranged Labour leader in living history become PM. Yep,. Well done on that. Quite the portfolio
Great points, a few self-employed family members were turned off as soon as they heard the no tax rise pledge from 2015 had been reduced to just 'no VAT rise'. They knew what was coming and had no interest in anything else May had to say. They were solid in 2015. It wasn't just the dementia tax hitting a core constituency, this was a huge factor, why would they care about Labour tax rises when they knew NI was going to go up for them at the very least
Off the shelf Norway EEA. Put it for a transition period of 5 years from 2019 so it expires in middle of next parliament.
Brexit bill. Pay for all committed projects and other things we are actually on the hook for, that's it. EU will receive funding if we are under Norway model anyway. Maybe chuck in an extra 10 billion if we can have a fig leaf on free movement.
Take this agreement - put it to the parliament. Watch as headbangers vote no but bulk of Lab/LD/SNP MPs vote yes. Be clear and open that this is a soft brexit transition, so that the opposition parties can't get away with voting it down.
We Brexit in 2019 and join EEA. UKIP lose all MEPs and any remaining political influence. Go to the country in 2021/22 and all parties can present their vision for the future, making it permanent, withdrawing entirely etc. UKIP fail, and tories and labour will likely extend or make indefinite the transitional arrangement.
Voila, Brexit sorted.
*Applauds*
I don't think our politics are very similar, but I'd cheer that method of escaping this hell to the rafters.
Off the shelf Norway EEA. Put it for a transition period of 5 years from 2019 so it expires in middle of next parliament.
Brexit bill. Pay for all committed projects and other things we are actually on the hook for, that's it. EU will receive funding if we are under Norway model anyway. Maybe chuck in an extra 10 billion if we can have a fig leaf on free movement.
Take this agreement - put it to the parliament. Watch as headbangers vote no but bulk of Lab/LD/SNP MPs vote yes. Be clear and open that this is a soft brexit transition, so that the opposition parties can't get away with voting it down.
We Brexit in 2019 and join EEA. UKIP lose all MEPs and any remaining political influence. Go to the country in 2021/22 and all parties can present their vision for the future, making it permanent, withdrawing entirely etc. UKIP fail, and tories and labour will likely extend or make indefinite the transitional arrangement.
A big problem for the Conservatives is that both the left wing and the right wing think that the other faction is making them unpopular, and they don't realise that they each need the other.
Thing is I don't think that is why the Tories have a problem. From the outside looking in prior to the election the party appeared, to me at least, to be more unified than I have ever known it. There were a couple of Eurofanatic headbangers like Clarke and Soubry but they were generally behaving. This problem that has appeared with the Tory party all stems from one single issue - Theresa May. She is not the person to lead either the party or the country and has set the Tory party back decades in just a few short weeks.
If they are ruthless and get rid of May then I do believe there is plenty of common ground between the various wings of the party to allow them to put together an effective programme and start to rebuild public confidence. But May has to go.
#saveMay
It is quite funny that the next few years might be dominated by each party doing everything they can to make sure the opposing leader stays in place.
One good thing about the election is that there is no particular "class" element to the vote any more. That is healthy going forward.
Great big age split though.
Clegg saying no to increasing tuition fees is an interesting 'What if'.
There's a big city-town split as well.
And a big, persistent gender split. Women much more pro-Labour then men, despite the genders of the party leaders. My suspicion is that women are more into issues like health and education and less bothered by IRA/nukes stuff.
I think the WASPI issue was quite a big thing among women of a certain age.
Off the shelf Norway EEA. Put it for a transition period of 5 years from 2019 so it expires in middle of next parliament.
Brexit bill. Pay for all committed projects and other things we are actually on the hook for, that's it. EU will receive funding if we are under Norway model anyway. Maybe chuck in an extra 10 billion if we can have a fig leaf on free movement.
Take this agreement - put it to the parliament. Watch as headbangers vote no but bulk of Lab/LD/SNP MPs vote yes. Be clear and open that this is a soft brexit transition, so that the opposition parties can't get away with voting it down.
We Brexit in 2019 and join EEA. UKIP lose all MEPs and any remaining political influence. Go to the country in 2021/22 and all parties can present their vision for the future, making it permanent, withdrawing entirely etc. UKIP fail, and tories and labour will likely extend or make indefinite the transitional arrangement.
Voila, Brexit sorted.
Events, though. My biggest worry at the moment is China's economy. If they do crash (as we've had various experts tell us is imminent for a few days every year for the last five... and then we just go on and forget the problem entirely after a couple of days) we're surely going to be even more vulnerable than we were with the US housing crash. We've spent the last ten years doing very little to reduce our exposure to such events, and if that hits us and the EU in the middle of Brexit negotiations there will be a mess of epic proportions.
If it has then the the Tories are truly fucked, they are relying on dying demographic.
Ah yes another variation of "the Tories will never win again". Why do people never learn?
Since 1992 the Tories have won a (small) majority in just one of the 6 subsequent election, including 3 elections where they scored less than 200.
Think that the Conservative brand were seriously toxified in the 1980s and 1990s. To think that the last time they had a comfortable working majority was 1987 - 30 years ago.
While the last time the non-Blair Labour party won a working majority was in 1966.
Political trends often last a while. What we have had now for a decade is a era of crisis and uncertainty brought on by the effects of globalisation. Its likely to continue.
I reckon the days of single party big majorities are finished forever in this country. The trend is clear - just falling short, a tiny majority, or coalition. If 40% of the public are willing to embrace the far left, well, the Tories can forget getting a decent majority ever again.
And there are, thank God, enough sane people to stop Labour doing the same.
If it has then the the Tories are truly fucked, they are relying on dying demographic.
Ah yes another variation of "the Tories will never win again". Why do people never learn?
I'd say the Tories never learn. The only time they've won a majority since 92 is on a socially Liberal, fiscally dry platform. Banging on about hard Brexit, fox hunting and using the DUP lead me to expect will be getting songs and poetry about single mothers at party conference time again soon.
You mean the election when they promised no tax rises, spending increases all round and encouraged fear of Scottish politicians ?
Preferable to the one where they managed to alienate almost every single demographic bar the Northern working class, and in that instance only the ones whose entire family rent their homes? And promised absolutely nothing to anyone. And gave absolutely no inkling they had the faintest clue how to deal with the Brexit they had instigated. And nearly let the most deranged Labour leader in living history become PM. Yep,. Well done on that. Quite the portfolio
It wasn't the best of campaigns was it.
Still it was probably an accurate indicator to the problems the country will face in the decades to come.
The problem is unless the Tories keep Corbyn and co out of office those problems are going to be multiplied Personally I think Europe is an extravagance the party could have done without getting bogged down with. It's already cost them dear. And I'm no europhile. Just don't see the risk politically or economically of a hard Brexit worth the reward. And can't relate to the all consuming passion at the cost of all else it seems to ignite in some. Consequently it's bloody annoying.
Off the shelf Norway EEA. Put it for a transition period of 5 years from 2019 so it expires in middle of next parliament.
Brexit bill. Pay for all committed projects and other things we are actually on the hook for, that's it. EU will receive funding if we are under Norway model anyway. Maybe chuck in an extra 10 billion if we can have a fig leaf on free movement.
Take this agreement - put it to the parliament. Watch as headbangers vote no but bulk of Lab/LD/SNP MPs vote yes. Be clear and open that this is a soft brexit transition, so that the opposition parties can't get away with voting it down.
We Brexit in 2019 and join EEA. UKIP lose all MEPs and any remaining political influence. Go to the country in 2021/22 and all parties can present their vision for the future, making it permanent, withdrawing entirely etc. UKIP fail, and tories and labour will likely extend or make indefinite the transitional arrangement.
question: under the article 50 legislation passed in the last parliament didn't the government frame it parliament gets a vote on the final brexit deal but if parliament rejects the deal we crash out of EU anyway. so hard brexit anyway if deal negotiated is crap
No I thought legally it was framed that there would be no vote to accept it but Davis and May were saying there would be various votes at some stage - referring to the repeal act etc.
Maybe so..strikes me the right of the party are obsessed with Europe to the exclusion of almost all else however.
The right of the party - you mean people like Osborne? Who decided that cutting disability benefit at the same time as cuttting higher rate tax was sensible?
A critical problem is that Thatcher killed the wets, who were also generally europhile. Now you have the social / economic ultra-liberals , and the nationalist - populists, on the other hand, much like the Republicans in the US. The Tories used to be able depend on a critical, third, faction - both aristocratic and moderate, with an ethos of national unity ("one-nationism" obviously ) , and cross-class, national appeal even after '60s.
Off the shelf Norway EEA. Put it for a transition period of 5 years from 2019 so it expires in middle of next parliament.
Brexit bill. Pay for all committed projects and other things we are actually on the hook for, that's it. EU will receive funding if we are under Norway model anyway. Maybe chuck in an extra 10 billion if we can have a fig leaf on free movement.
Take this agreement - put it to the parliament. Watch as headbangers vote no but bulk of Lab/LD/SNP MPs vote yes. Be clear and open that this is a soft brexit transition, so that the opposition parties can't get away with voting it down.
We Brexit in 2019 and join EEA. UKIP lose all MEPs and any remaining political influence. Go to the country in 2021/22 and all parties can present their vision for the future, making it permanent, withdrawing entirely etc. UKIP fail, and tories and labour will likely extend or make indefinite the transitional arrangement.
Voila, Brexit sorted.
How does it stop freedom of movement?
It doesn't. It fulfils the letter of the referendum without necessarily giving the anti-migration lot what they want.
I think we're due a Shad Cab reshuffle tomorrow. I hope it will show a reunification of the PLP.
My fantasy shadow cabinet - allowing Chicken Coupers to get back into the shadow cabinet but not at the expense of the both loyal and good.
Shadow Chancellor - John McDonnell Shadow Home Sec - Stella Creasy Shadow Foreign Sec - Emily Thornberry Shadow Defence - Clive Lewis Shadow Justice - Cat Smith Shadow Education - Angela Rayner Shadow Equalities - Angela Eagle Shadow Brexit - Keir Starmer Shadow International Trade - Chuka Umunna Shadow Business - Yvette Cooper Shadow Health - Debbie Abrahams Shadow Work and Pensions - Rachel Reeves Shadow Transport - Caroline Flint Shadow Communities - Tony Lloyd Shadow Environment - Sue Hayman Shadow International Development - Kate Osamor Shadow Culture, Media and Sport - Ben Bradshaw Shadow Scotland - Ian Murray Shadow Wales - Nia Griffith Shadow Northern Ireland - Peter Hain* Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury - Liz Kendall. Shadow Leader of the House - Jess Phillips
* I know he's in the House of Lords but Northern Ireland's going to be an important issue in the next Parliament and Hain already knows the job.
Happy that there won't be a Con/DUP coalition, at the very least. Presumably, the DUP told May where to go as far as a coalition arrangement was concerned.
Take your pick - Con-DUP Coalition-Lite .. Con-DUP Pact .. Con-DUP Alliance .. Con-DUP Compact .. Con-DUP Concordat .. God's Will .. Save Ulster From Sodomy Party
If it has then the the Tories are truly fucked, they are relying on dying demographic.
Ah yes another variation of "the Tories will never win again". Why do people never learn?
Since 1992 the Tories have won a (small) majority in just one of the 6 subsequent election, including 3 elections where they scored less than 200.
Think that the Conservative brand were seriously toxified in the 1980s and 1990s. To think that the last time they had a comfortable working majority was 1987 - 30 years ago.
While the last time the non-Blair Labour party won a working majority was in 1966.
Political trends often last a while. What we have had now for a decade is a era of crisis and uncertainty brought on by the effects of globalisation. Its likely to continue.
The Labour party under Blair was more to right than previous Labour governments but it was still the Labour party. Much like the Conservative party - which was more socially liberal under David Cameron than under Thatcher - was still the Conservative party.
I don't see any of the big two securing comfortable majorities in the foreseeable future.
If you read Blair's stuff before 1997, he sounds much more to the Left than he later did (e.g., in his 1990s pamphlet on Socialism), or his policy program when in office. Much like Ramsay MacDonald. For politicos I'm sure he was obviously a right-wing shift in Labour, not so sure that was apparent to the voters who don't necessarily think in those terms.
Happy that there won't be a Con/DUP coalition, at the very least. Presumably, the DUP told May where to go as far as a coalition arrangement was concerned.
Take your pick - Con-DUP Coalition-Lite .. Con-DUP Pact .. Con-DUP Alliance .. Con-DUP Compact .. Con-DUP Concordat .. God's Will ..
You have to say though, the Conservative party is a very different beast to the GOP in America.
Reading that Observer front page (just about) Tory MPs threatening to oppose a Coalition with the DUP on the grounds of their views on gay rights, abortion, and climate change was the reason why a Conservative/DUP coalition did not happen.
One good thing about the election is that there is no particular "class" element to the vote any more. That is healthy going forward.
Great big age split though.
Clegg saying no to increasing tuition fees is an interesting 'What if'.
There's a big city-town split as well.
And a big, persistent gender split. Women much more pro-Labour then men, despite the genders of the party leaders. My suspicion is that women are more into issues like health and education and less bothered by IRA/nukes stuff.
Women are proportionally more likely to be employed in and users of the public sector.
I wonder if housing is a bigger concern to young women than it is to young men.
The Tories have simply one thing to do in government this time around - make sure that Corbyn isn't the next PM. Brexit is important, solvency is important, defence is important, law and order is important - however frankly I don't care what they do with those things - the demolition of the country by Corbyn is something I never wish to see, all other matters are secondary.
Any Tory MP that makes even the slightest peep against Mrs May needs to be consigned to the tower. Of course she won't actually be making the decisions - it'll be the cabinet.
I know it's fashionable to vote for dimwits, but the UK is not in a position to indulge itself with the dangerous variety.
If it has then the the Tories are truly fucked, they are relying on dying demographic.
Ah yes another variation of "the Tories will never win again". Why do people never learn?
Since 1992 the Tories have won a (small) majority in just one of the 6 subsequent election, including 3 elections where they scored less than 200.
Think that the Conservative brand were seriously toxified in the 1980s and 1990s. To think that the last time they had a comfortable working majority was 1987 - 30 years ago.
While the last time the non-Blair Labour party won a working majority was in 1966.
Political trends often last a while. What we have had now for a decade is a era of crisis and uncertainty brought on by the effects of globalisation. Its likely to continue.
I reckon the days of single party big majorities are finished forever in this country. The trend is clear - just falling short, a tiny majority, or coalition. If 40% of the public are willing to embrace the far left, well, the Tories can forget getting a decent majority ever again.
And there are, thank God, enough sane people to stop Labour doing the same.
I'm not sure that's right. There were an astonishing number of seats where the Tories polled north of 40% and still lost. There might yet be others that are higher, but so far the prize goes to Stockton South - polling 46.85%, and yet still losing.
It wouldn't take too much of the Tories getting their shit together to win back a raft of seats. Little things like, oh I don't know, not scaring the elderly to death over pensions and inheritance. Maybe saying that no way on God's Earth are they going to support the return of fox-hunting might be another. Not rocket science. Just not fucking Grade-A muppetry either....
Plenty of Leavers on here would be very happy with that. I think off the top of my head that would include me, RCS, MaxPB and SandyRentoul. Indeed I think you will find the majority of Leavers on here wanted what has been described as a soft Brexit. It was mostly the Remainers on here who kept telling us it was impossible.
Happy that there won't be a Con/DUP coalition, at the very least. Presumably, the DUP told May where to go as far as a coalition arrangement was concerned.
Take your pick - Con-DUP Coalition-Lite .. Con-DUP Pact .. Con-DUP Alliance .. Con-DUP Compact .. Con-DUP Concordat .. God's Will ..
You want to know the type of person Theresa May is, and the type of person David Cameron is, this encapsulates it perfectly
Another Conservative has added his name to the list of those fiercely criticising Theresa May’s campaign. On BBC Radio 5 Live, former MP Stewart Jackson, who lost his seat in Peterborough, said the manifesto was “shockingly bad ... lacking passion, it was bland, it lacked vision ... above everything else [it was] a real lost opportunity.”
And he went on:
“Our manifesto was all about what we’ll stop them having and what we’ll not give them and what’s good for them and that’s frankly electoral poison and a complete disaster ... there had not been appropriate consultation on it ... and when you have to explain that you’re not taking food from children’s mouths and taking homes from your core supporters, then you’re losing an election.
His criticisms of May didn’t stop at the manifesto. Since he lost his seat he said that he had heard from David Cameron – but not from May or Conservative chairman Sir Patrick McLoughlin. That, he said, was “quite poor”.
If it has then the the Tories are truly fucked, they are relying on dying demographic.
Ah yes another variation of "the Tories will never win again". Why do people never learn?
I'd say the Tories never learn. The only time they've won a majority since 92 is on a socially Liberal, fiscally dry platform. Banging on about hard Brexit, fox hunting and using the DUP lead me to expect will be getting songs and poetry about single mothers at party conference time again soon.
You mean the election when they promised no tax rises, spending increases all round and encouraged fear of Scottish politicians ?
Preferable to the one where they managed to alienate almost every single demographic bar the Northern working class, and in that instance only the ones whose entire family rent their homes? And promised absolutely nothing to anyone. And gave absolutely no inkling they had the faintest clue how to deal with the Brexit they had instigated. And nearly let the most deranged Labour leader in living history become PM. Yep,. Well done on that. Quite the portfolio
Great points, a few self-employed family members were turned off as soon as they heard the no tax rise pledge from 2015 had been reduced to just 'no VAT rise'. They knew what was coming and had no interest in anything else May had to say. They were solid in 2015. It wasn't just the dementia tax hitting a core constituency, this was a huge factor, why would they care about Labour tax rises when they knew NI was going to go up for them at the very least
The problem is that taxes are going to rise for most and spending and wages aren't.
And politicians are going to be encouraged to make even more unaffordable promises.
Happy that there won't be a Con/DUP coalition, at the very least. Presumably, the DUP told May where to go as far as a coalition arrangement was concerned.
Take your pick - Con-DUP Coalition-Lite .. Con-DUP Pact .. Con-DUP Alliance .. Con-DUP Compact .. Con-DUP Concordat .. God's Will .. Save Ulster From Sodomy Party
- It's what Jesus would have wanted - Con/'At least we're not Sinn Fein'
Underrated performers of 2017. Theresa May. She won a bigger vote than David Cameron (twice) and a bigger seat tally (once), she just has less photogenic friends and allies to choose from. Tim Farron. I would have said the 10-year probability of decease of the Lib Dems was about evens... three days ago. Now it is a lot lower. Diane Abbott. She got the message out there that Labour would pay a lot of money for more police - but nobody could remember how much! When law and order came about as a topic, I bet that helped.
Off the shelf Norway EEA. Put it for a transition period of 5 years from 2019 so it expires in middle of next parliament.
Brexit bill. Pay for all committed projects and other things we are actually on the hook for, that's it. EU will receive funding if we are under Norway model anyway. Maybe chuck in an extra 10 billion if we can have a fig leaf on free movement.
Take this agreement - put it to the parliament. Watch as headbangers vote no but bulk of Lab/LD/SNP MPs vote yes. Be clear and open that this is a soft brexit transition, so that the opposition parties can't get away with voting it down.
We Brexit in 2019 and join EEA. UKIP lose all MEPs and any remaining political influence. Go to the country in 2021/22 and all parties can present their vision for the future, making it permanent, withdrawing entirely etc. UKIP fail, and tories and labour will likely extend or make indefinite the transitional arrangement.
Voila, Brexit sorted.
How does it stop freedom of movement?
It doesn't. It fulfils the letter of the referendum without necessarily giving the anti-migration lot what they want.
but both main parties have said they want to end freedom of movement
Off the shelf Norway EEA. Put it for a transition period of 5 years from 2019 so it expires in middle of next parliament.
Brexit bill. Pay for all committed projects and other things we are actually on the hook for, that's it. EU will receive funding if we are under Norway model anyway. Maybe chuck in an extra 10 billion if we can have a fig leaf on free movement.
Take this agreement - put it to the parliament. Watch as headbangers vote no but bulk of Lab/LD/SNP MPs vote yes. Be clear and open that this is a soft brexit transition, so that the opposition parties can't get away with voting it down.
We Brexit in 2019 and join EEA. UKIP lose all MEPs and any remaining political influence. Go to the country in 2021/22 and all parties can present their vision for the future, making it permanent, withdrawing entirely etc. UKIP fail, and tories and labour will likely extend or make indefinite the transitional arrangement.
Today my mother, who last year voted leave some gusto, suggested it 'isn't worth all this upheaval'. I do wonder how many people are thinking that right now.
Off the shelf Norway EEA. Put it for a transition period of 5 years from 2019 so it expires in middle of next parliament.
Brexit bill. Pay for all committed projects and other things we are actually on the hook for, that's it. EU will receive funding if we are under Norway model anyway. Maybe chuck in an extra 10 billion if we can have a fig leaf on free movement.
Take this agreement - put it to the parliament. Watch as headbangers vote no but bulk of Lab/LD/SNP MPs vote yes. Be clear and open that this is a soft brexit transition, so that the opposition parties can't get away with voting it down.
We Brexit in 2019 and join EEA. UKIP lose all MEPs and any remaining political influence. Go to the country in 2021/22 and all parties can present their vision for the future, making it permanent, withdrawing entirely etc. UKIP fail, and tories and labour will likely extend or make indefinite the transitional arrangement.
You want to know the type of person Theresa May is, and the type of person David Cameron is, this encapsulates it perfectly
Another Conservative has added his name to the list of those fiercely criticising Theresa May’s campaign. On BBC Radio 5 Live, former MP Stewart Jackson, who lost his seat in Peterborough, said the manifesto was “shockingly bad ... lacking passion, it was bland, it lacked vision ... above everything else [it was] a real lost opportunity.”
And he went on:
“Our manifesto was all about what we’ll stop them having and what we’ll not give them and what’s good for them and that’s frankly electoral poison and a complete disaster ... there had not been appropriate consultation on it ... and when you have to explain that you’re not taking food from children’s mouths and taking homes from your core supporters, then you’re losing an election.
His criticisms of May didn’t stop at the manifesto. Since he lost his seat he said that he had heard from David Cameron – but not from May or Conservative chairman Sir Patrick McLoughlin. That, he said, was “quite poor”.
He should buck up a bit ! Teresa May probably has been quite busy on other stuff since Thursday.
The Tories have simply one thing to do in government this time around - make sure that Corbyn isn't the next PM. Brexit is important, solvency is important, defence is important, law and order is important - however frankly I don't care what they do with those things - the demolition of the country by Corbyn is something I never wish to see, all other matters are secondary.
Any Tory MP that makes even the slightest peep against Mrs May needs to be consigned to the tower. Of course she won't actually be making the decisions - it'll be the cabinet.
I know it's fashionable to vote for dimwits, but the UK is not in a position to indulge itself with the dangerous variety.
(repost as I posted in error on a stale thread)
Agreed that that's priority No. 1.
In a purely theoretical sense though, I wonder what the electoral effect of a Corbyn-led, 6 party rainbow minority coalition tackling Brexit would be? I'd hope it would expose his extremism and incompetence to disastrous effect, but on the other hand it might just normalise him and lead to Labour cannibalizing its former partners at the next election...
A big problem for the Conservatives is that both the left wing and the right wing think that the other faction is making them unpopular, and they don't realise that they each need the other.
Thing is I don't think that is why the Tories have a problem. From the outside looking in prior to the election the party appeared, to me at least, to be more unified than I have ever known it. There were a couple of Eurofanatic headbangers like Clarke and Soubry but they were generally behaving. This problem that has appeared with the Tory party all stems from one single issue - Theresa May. She is not the person to lead either the party or the country and has set the Tory party back decades in just a few short weeks.
If they are ruthless and get rid of May then I do believe there is plenty of common ground between the various wings of the party to allow them to put together an effective programme and start to rebuild public confidence. But May has to go.
#saveMay
It is quite funny that the next few years might be dominated by each party doing everything they can to make sure the opposing leader stays in place.
You want to know the type of person Theresa May is, and the type of person David Cameron is, this encapsulates it perfectly
Another Conservative has added his name to the list of those fiercely criticising Theresa May’s campaign. On BBC Radio 5 Live, former MP Stewart Jackson, who lost his seat in Peterborough, said the manifesto was “shockingly bad ... lacking passion, it was bland, it lacked vision ... above everything else [it was] a real lost opportunity.”
And he went on:
“Our manifesto was all about what we’ll stop them having and what we’ll not give them and what’s good for them and that’s frankly electoral poison and a complete disaster ... there had not been appropriate consultation on it ... and when you have to explain that you’re not taking food from children’s mouths and taking homes from your core supporters, then you’re losing an election.
His criticisms of May didn’t stop at the manifesto. Since he lost his seat he said that he had heard from David Cameron – but not from May or Conservative chairman Sir Patrick McLoughlin. That, he said, was “quite poor”.
He should buck up a bit ! Teresa May probably has been quite busy on other stuff since Thursday.
Yeh. Tory MPs shouldn't be such delicate flowers as to be bothered by that.
Off the shelf Norway EEA. Put it for a transition period of 5 years from 2019 so it expires in middle of next parliament.
Brexit bill. Pay for all committed projects and other things we are actually on the hook for, that's it. EU will receive funding if we are under Norway model anyway. Maybe chuck in an extra 10 billion if we can have a fig leaf on free movement.
Take this agreement - put it to the parliament. Watch as headbangers vote no but bulk of Lab/LD/SNP MPs vote yes. Be clear and open that this is a soft brexit transition, so that the opposition parties can't get away with voting it down.
We Brexit in 2019 and join EEA. UKIP lose all MEPs and any remaining political influence. Go to the country in 2021/22 and all parties can present their vision for the future, making it permanent, withdrawing entirely etc. UKIP fail, and tories and labour will likely extend or make indefinite the transitional arrangement.
Voila, Brexit sorted.
How does it stop freedom of movement?
It doesn't. It fulfils the letter of the referendum without necessarily giving the anti-migration lot what they want.
Exactly. And the key point is that it is made as a transition to be dealt with in the next parliament. In the election in between those who want a hard brexit can put there case forward to the public, and if that party (UKIP, Patriotic Alliance or whatever) actually does win the election, then the public have decided they want to control freedom of movement above all else, and we don't renew it.
Now that might sound similar to previous small majorities - ie after 2015 GE, Con had majority of 16.
But the difference is that with that majority of 16 they also then had the DUP to give an additional buffer - so in practice it was much more comfortable.
This time it's 13 and that's it - no other potential support anywhere (other than from Hoey, Field etc on Brexit - but that's only on Brexit).
Now to my mind 13 is just about manageable - but if it starts slipping through by-election losses it could quite quickly become untenable.
Three by-election losses would reduce it to 7 - that feels like the absolute minimum under which they could carry on with any sense of stability - by that I just mean without feeling that the Govt could fall at any moment.
So what does that mean? Reckon to get through the next two years, complete Brexit and then another GE under a new leader? Or if new leader comes in soon would they go for an immediate GE?
A big problem for the Conservatives is that both the left wing and the right wing think that the other faction is making them unpopular, and they don't realise that they each need the other.
Thing is I don't think that is why the Tories have a problem. From the outside looking in prior to the election the party appeared, to me at least, to be more unified than I have ever known it. There were a couple of Eurofanatic headbangers like Clarke and Soubry but they were generally behaving. This problem that has appeared with the Tory party all stems from one single issue - Theresa May. She is not the person to lead either the party or the country and has set the Tory party back decades in just a few short weeks.
If they are ruthless and get rid of May then I do believe there is plenty of common ground between the various wings of the party to allow them to put together an effective programme and start to rebuild public confidence. But May has to go.
#saveMay
It is quite funny that the next few years might be dominated by each party doing everything they can to make sure the opposing leader stays in place.
indeed. Post of the day, if not the week.
Not sure the Tories will have to do anything to keep Corbyn in post. His detractors within the party are utterly discredited. May called the election to 'crush the saboteurs!' but I didn't know she meant the New Labour lot!
You want to know the type of person Theresa May is, and the type of person David Cameron is, this encapsulates it perfectly
Another Conservative has added his name to the list of those fiercely criticising Theresa May’s campaign. On BBC Radio 5 Live, former MP Stewart Jackson, who lost his seat in Peterborough, said the manifesto was “shockingly bad ... lacking passion, it was bland, it lacked vision ... above everything else [it was] a real lost opportunity.”
And he went on:
“Our manifesto was all about what we’ll stop them having and what we’ll not give them and what’s good for them and that’s frankly electoral poison and a complete disaster ... there had not been appropriate consultation on it ... and when you have to explain that you’re not taking food from children’s mouths and taking homes from your core supporters, then you’re losing an election.
His criticisms of May didn’t stop at the manifesto. Since he lost his seat he said that he had heard from David Cameron – but not from May or Conservative chairman Sir Patrick McLoughlin. That, he said, was “quite poor”.
He should buck up a bit ! Teresa May probably has been quite busy on other stuff since Thursday.
Yeh. Tory MPs shouldn't be such delicate flowers as to be bothered by that.
Happy that there won't be a Con/DUP coalition, at the very least. Presumably, the DUP told May where to go as far as a coalition arrangement was concerned.
Take your pick - Con-DUP Coalition-Lite .. Con-DUP Pact .. Con-DUP Alliance .. Con-DUP Compact .. Con-DUP Concordat .. God's Will .. Save Ulster From Sodomy Party
I am surprised that Tim Farron does not want a bit of that action!
A big problem for the Conservatives is that both the left wing and the right wing think that the other faction is making them unpopular, and they don't realise that they each need the other.
Thing is I don't think that is why the Tories have a problem. From the outside looking in prior to the election the party appeared, to me at least, to be more unified than I have ever known it. There were a couple of Eurofanatic headbangers like Clarke and Soubry but they were generally behaving. This problem that has appeared with the Tory party all stems from one single issue - Theresa May. She is not the person to lead either the party or the country and has set the Tory party back decades in just a few short weeks.
If they are ruthless and get rid of May then I do believe there is plenty of common ground between the various wings of the party to allow them to put together an effective programme and start to rebuild public confidence. But May has to go.
#saveMay
It is quite funny that the next few years might be dominated by each party doing everything they can to make sure the opposing leader stays in place.
indeed. Post of the day, if not the week.
Post of the week/year/millennium is already bagged by Mr Herdson......
I think we're due a Shad Cab reshuffle tomorrow. I hope it will show a reunification of the PLP.
My fantasy shadow cabinet - allowing Chicken Coupers to get back into the shadow cabinet but not at the expense of the both loyal and good.
Shadow Chancellor - John McDonnell Shadow Home Sec - Stella Creasy Shadow Foreign Sec - Emily Thornberry Shadow Defence - Clive Lewis Shadow Justice - Cat Smith Shadow Education - Angela Rayner Shadow Equalities - Angela Eagle Shadow Brexit - Keir Starmer Shadow International Trade - Chuka Umunna Shadow Business - Yvette Cooper Shadow Health - Debbie Abrahams Shadow Work and Pensions - Rachel Reeves Shadow Transport - Caroline Flint Shadow Communities - Tony Lloyd Shadow Environment - Sue Hayman Shadow International Development - Kate Osamor Shadow Culture, Media and Sport - Ben Bradshaw Shadow Scotland - Ian Murray Shadow Wales - Nia Griffith Shadow Northern Ireland - Peter Hain* Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury - Liz Kendall. Shadow Leader of the House - Jess Phillips
* I know he's in the House of Lords but Northern Ireland's going to be an important issue in the next Parliament and Hain already knows the job.
You'll finish up with about 8/22 there.
Long-Bailey and Burgon will feature somewhere. I don't believe that Kendall, Reeves, Flint, or Bradshaw will have anything to do with Corbyn.
Today my mother, who last year voted leave some gusto, suggested it 'isn't worth all this upheaval'. I do wonder how many people are thinking that right now.
Did I hear something about some, very striking new polls on that coming our way ?
I think we're due a Shad Cab reshuffle tomorrow. I hope it will show a reunification of the PLP.
My fantasy shadow cabinet - allowing Chicken Coupers to get back into the shadow cabinet but not at the expense of the both loyal and good.
Shadow Chancellor - John McDonnell Shadow Home Sec - Stella Creasy Shadow Foreign Sec - Emily Thornberry Shadow Defence - Clive Lewis Shadow Justice - Cat Smith Shadow Education - Angela Rayner Shadow Equalities - Angela Eagle Shadow Brexit - Keir Starmer Shadow International Trade - Chuka Umunna Shadow Business - Yvette Cooper Shadow Health - Debbie Abrahams Shadow Work and Pensions - Rachel Reeves Shadow Transport - Caroline Flint Shadow Communities - Tony Lloyd Shadow Environment - Sue Hayman Shadow International Development - Kate Osamor Shadow Culture, Media and Sport - Ben Bradshaw Shadow Scotland - Ian Murray Shadow Wales - Nia Griffith Shadow Northern Ireland - Peter Hain* Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury - Liz Kendall. Shadow Leader of the House - Jess Phillips
* I know he's in the House of Lords but Northern Ireland's going to be an important issue in the next Parliament and Hain already knows the job.
You'll finish up with about 8/22 there.
Long-Bailey and Burgon will feature somewhere. I don't believe that Kendall, Reeves, Flint, or Bradshaw will have anything to do with Corbyn.
Or Phillips. And nor should they. Why appoint people to a position if you know they'll be thinking about quitting to try and destabilise your leadership at critical points in our political history, rather than actually doing the job...
A big problem for the Conservatives is that both the left wing and the right wing think that the other faction is making them unpopular, and they don't realise that they each need the other.
Thing is I don't think that is why the Tories have a problem. From the outside looking in prior to the election the party appeared, to me at least, to be more unified than I have ever known it. There were a couple of Eurofanatic headbangers like Clarke and Soubry but they were generally behaving. This problem that has appeared with the Tory party all stems from one single issue - Theresa May. She is not the person to lead either the party or the country and has set the Tory party back decades in just a few short weeks.
If they are ruthless and get rid of May then I do believe there is plenty of common ground between the various wings of the party to allow them to put together an effective programme and start to rebuild public confidence. But May has to go.
#saveMay
It is quite funny that the next few years might be dominated by each party doing everything they can to make sure the opposing leader stays in place.
indeed. Post of the day, if not the week.
Post of the week/year/millennium is already bagged by Mr Herdson......
That, and the reaction to it, was one of the greatest PB moments of all time.
For drama and tension it was beaten by BJO's heart-rending posts from a Tunisian hotel being attacked by terrorists.
But for political shock value (that you could have made a lot of money on had you followed it!) nothing could beat it!
Off the shelf Norway EEA. Put it for a transition period of 5 years from 2019 so it expires in middle of next parliament.
Brexit bill. Pay for all committed projects and other things we are actually on the hook for, that's it. EU will receive funding if we are under Norway model anyway. Maybe chuck in an extra 10 billion if we can have a fig leaf on free movement.
Take this agreement - put it to the parliament. Watch as headbangers vote no but bulk of Lab/LD/SNP MPs vote yes. Be clear and open that this is a soft brexit transition, so that the opposition parties can't get away with voting it down.
We Brexit in 2019 and join EEA. UKIP lose all MEPs and any remaining political influence. Go to the country in 2021/22 and all parties can present their vision for the future, making it permanent, withdrawing entirely etc. UKIP fail, and tories and labour will likely extend or make indefinite the transitional arrangement.
Voila, Brexit sorted.
How does it stop freedom of movement?
It doesn't. It fulfils the letter of the referendum without necessarily giving the anti-migration lot what they want.
but both main parties have said they want to end freedom of movement
Oh I agree they have. That is the circle they are going to have to square. In fact I don't think I will win my bet nor get the type of Brexit I want. I just like the fact that the possibility keeps popping up every once in a while.
Off the shelf Norway EEA. Put it for a transition period of 5 years from 2019 so it expires in middle of next parliament.
Brexit bill. Pay for all committed projects and other things we are actually on the hook for, that's it. EU will receive funding if we are under Norway model anyway. Maybe chuck in an extra 10 billion if we can have a fig leaf on free movement.
Take this agreement - put it to the parliament. Watch as headbangers vote no but bulk of Lab/LD/SNP MPs vote yes. Be clear and open that this is a soft brexit transition, so that the opposition parties can't get away with voting it down.
We Brexit in 2019 and join EEA. UKIP lose all MEPs and any remaining political influence. Go to the country in 2021/22 and all parties can present their vision for the future, making it permanent, withdrawing entirely etc. UKIP fail, and tories and labour will likely extend or make indefinite the transitional arrangement.
Now that might sound similar to previous small majorities - ie after 2015 GE, Con had majority of 16.
But the difference is that with that majority of 16 they also then had the DUP to give an additional buffer - so in practice it was much more comfortable.
This time it's 13 and that's it - no other potential support anywhere (other than from Hoey, Field etc on Brexit - but that's only on Brexit).
Now to my mind 13 is just about manageable - but if it starts slipping through by-election losses it could quite quickly become untenable.
Three by-election losses would reduce it to 7 - that feels like the absolute minimum under which they could carry on with any sense of stability - by that I just mean without feeling that the Govt could fall at any moment.
So what does that mean? Reckon to get through the next two years, complete Brexit and then another GE under a new leader? Or if new leader comes in soon would they go for an immediate GE?
I can't imagine this lasting the full five years.
I did the same calculation and wondered the exact same thing today. Unless Brexit breaks down irrevocably and forces an immediate GE, the best thing would be to make May carry the can and get Brexit through by 2019, then install a new leader who knows how to campaign for a honeymoon GE thereafter. Labour won't refuse an election at any point in this Parliament, regardless of the polls!
Today my mother, who last year voted leave some gusto, suggested it 'isn't worth all this upheaval'. I do wonder how many people are thinking that right now.
Off the shelf Norway EEA. Put it for a transition period of 5 years from 2019 so it expires in middle of next parliament.
Brexit bill. Pay for all committed projects and other things we are actually on the hook for, that's it. EU will receive funding if we are under Norway model anyway. Maybe chuck in an extra 10 billion if we can have a fig leaf on free movement.
Take this agreement - put it to the parliament. Watch as headbangers vote no but bulk of Lab/LD/SNP MPs vote yes. Be clear and open that this is a soft brexit transition, so that the opposition parties can't get away with voting it down.
We Brexit in 2019 and join EEA. UKIP lose all MEPs and any remaining political influence. Go to the country in 2021/22 and all parties can present their vision for the future, making it permanent, withdrawing entirely etc. UKIP fail, and tories and labour will likely extend or make indefinite the transitional arrangement.
Voila, Brexit sorted.
How does it stop freedom of movement?
It doesn't. It fulfils the letter of the referendum without necessarily giving the anti-migration lot what they want.
but both main parties have said they want to end freedom of movement
Given the current parliament, a suitable transition is needed. No party has won a majority and the right to implement its manifesto in full. A simple solution is needed for the time being, as a tailored solution requires the type of large majority that was expressly rejected by the electorate. Next election those parties can decide if they want to go for a hard brexit and try and win a majority on that basis.
Besides, as I said we could bung the EU an extra 10 billion for tinkering around the edges with FoM.
I think we're due a Shad Cab reshuffle tomorrow. I hope it will show a reunification of the PLP.
My fantasy shadow cabinet - allowing Chicken Coupers to get back into the shadow cabinet but not at the expense of the both loyal and good.
Shadow Chancellor - John McDonnell Shadow Home Sec - Stella Creasy Shadow Foreign Sec - Emily Thornberry Shadow Defence - Clive Lewis Shadow Justice - Cat Smith Shadow Education - Angela Rayner Shadow Equalities - Angela Eagle Shadow Brexit - Keir Starmer Shadow International Trade - Chuka Umunna Shadow Business - Yvette Cooper Shadow Health - Debbie Abrahams Shadow Work and Pensions - Rachel Reeves Shadow Transport - Caroline Flint Shadow Communities - Tony Lloyd Shadow Environment - Sue Hayman Shadow International Development - Kate Osamor Shadow Culture, Media and Sport - Ben Bradshaw Shadow Scotland - Ian Murray Shadow Wales - Nia Griffith Shadow Northern Ireland - Peter Hain* Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury - Liz Kendall. Shadow Leader of the House - Jess Phillips
* I know he's in the House of Lords but Northern Ireland's going to be an important issue in the next Parliament and Hain already knows the job.
You'll finish up with about 8/22 there.
Long-Bailey and Burgon will feature somewhere. I don't believe that Kendall, Reeves, Flint, or Bradshaw will have anything to do with Corbyn.
Or Phillips. And nor should they. Why appoint people to a position if you know they'll be thinking about quitting to try and destabilise your leadership at critical points in our political history, rather than actually doing the job...
I see Chris Leslie has attacked Corbyn again today as well. The idea that all is well in the Labour Party is simply fantasy.
Comments
http://metro.co.uk/2017/06/10/jeremy-corbyn-was-just-2227-votes-short-of-becoming-prime-minister-6699355/?ito=facebook
Clegg saying no to increasing tuition fees is an interesting 'What if'.
There's a big city-town split as well.
(Edited UK to UUP!)
He must have been, I've read it so many times on PB.
If they are ruthless and get rid of May then I do believe there is plenty of common ground between the various wings of the party to allow them to put together an effective programme and start to rebuild public confidence. But May has to go.
And promised absolutely nothing to anyone.
And gave absolutely no inkling they had the faintest clue how to deal with the Brexit they had instigated.
And nearly let the most deranged Labour leader in living history become PM.
Yep,. Well done on that. Quite the portfolio
Political trends often last a while. What we have had now for a decade is a era of crisis and uncertainty brought on by the effects of globalisation. Its likely to continue.
I agree. TMay had her chance and blew it.
Still it was probably an accurate indicator to the problems the country will face in the decades to come.
Sometimes AveIt's simple maths say it best.
Brexit bill. Pay for all committed projects and other things we are actually on the hook for, that's it. EU will receive funding if we are under Norway model anyway. Maybe chuck in an extra 10 billion if we can have a fig leaf on free movement.
Take this agreement - put it to the parliament. Watch as headbangers vote no but bulk of Lab/LD/SNP MPs vote yes. Be clear and open that this is a soft brexit transition, so that the opposition parties can't get away with voting it down.
We Brexit in 2019 and join EEA. UKIP lose all MEPs and any remaining political influence. Go to the country in 2021/22 and all parties can present their vision for the future, making it permanent, withdrawing entirely etc. UKIP fail, and tories and labour will likely extend or make indefinite the transitional arrangement.
Voila, Brexit sorted.
I don't see any of the big two securing comfortable majorities in the foreseeable future.
I don't think our politics are very similar, but I'd cheer that method of escaping this hell to the rafters.
https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/873632572915449857
And there are, thank God, enough sane people to stop Labour doing the same.
Personally I think Europe is an extravagance the party could have done without getting bogged down with. It's already cost them dear.
And I'm no europhile. Just don't see the risk politically or economically of a hard Brexit worth the reward. And can't relate to the all consuming passion at the cost of all else it seems to ignite in some. Consequently it's bloody annoying.
Maybe so..strikes me the right of the party are obsessed with Europe to the exclusion of almost all else however.
The right of the party - you mean people like Osborne? Who decided that cutting disability benefit at the same time as cuttting higher rate tax was sensible?
A critical problem is that Thatcher killed the wets, who were also generally europhile. Now you have the social / economic ultra-liberals , and the nationalist - populists, on the other hand, much like the Republicans in the US. The Tories used to be able depend on a critical, third, faction - both aristocratic and moderate, with an ethos of national unity ("one-nationism" obviously ) , and cross-class, national appeal even after '60s.
Shadow Chancellor - John McDonnell
Shadow Home Sec - Stella Creasy
Shadow Foreign Sec - Emily Thornberry
Shadow Defence - Clive Lewis
Shadow Justice - Cat Smith
Shadow Education - Angela Rayner
Shadow Equalities - Angela Eagle
Shadow Brexit - Keir Starmer
Shadow International Trade - Chuka Umunna
Shadow Business - Yvette Cooper
Shadow Health - Debbie Abrahams
Shadow Work and Pensions - Rachel Reeves
Shadow Transport - Caroline Flint
Shadow Communities - Tony Lloyd
Shadow Environment - Sue Hayman
Shadow International Development - Kate Osamor
Shadow Culture, Media and Sport - Ben Bradshaw
Shadow Scotland - Ian Murray
Shadow Wales - Nia Griffith
Shadow Northern Ireland - Peter Hain*
Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury - Liz Kendall.
Shadow Leader of the House - Jess Phillips
* I know he's in the House of Lords but Northern Ireland's going to be an important issue in the next Parliament and Hain already knows the job.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/jun/10/general-election-2017-theresa-may-team-dup-live
Reading that Observer front page (just about) Tory MPs threatening to oppose a Coalition with the DUP on the grounds of their views on gay rights, abortion, and climate change was the reason why a Conservative/DUP coalition did not happen.
I wonder if housing is a bigger concern to young women than it is to young men.
Any Tory MP that makes even the slightest peep against Mrs May needs to be consigned to the tower. Of course she won't actually be making the decisions - it'll be the cabinet.
I know it's fashionable to vote for dimwits, but the UK is not in a position to indulge itself with the dangerous variety.
(repost as I posted in error on a stale thread)
It wouldn't take too much of the Tories getting their shit together to win back a raft of seats. Little things like, oh I don't know, not scaring the elderly to death over pensions and inheritance. Maybe saying that no way on God's Earth are they going to support the return of fox-hunting might be another. Not rocket science. Just not fucking Grade-A muppetry either....
Another Conservative has added his name to the list of those fiercely criticising Theresa May’s campaign. On BBC Radio 5 Live, former MP Stewart Jackson, who lost his seat in Peterborough, said the manifesto was “shockingly bad ... lacking passion, it was bland, it lacked vision ... above everything else [it was] a real lost opportunity.”
And he went on:
“Our manifesto was all about what we’ll stop them having and what we’ll not give them and what’s good for them and that’s frankly electoral poison and a complete disaster ... there had not been appropriate consultation on it ... and when you have to explain that you’re not taking food from children’s mouths and taking homes from your core supporters, then you’re losing an election.
His criticisms of May didn’t stop at the manifesto. Since he lost his seat he said that he had heard from David Cameron – but not from May or Conservative chairman Sir Patrick McLoughlin. That, he said, was “quite poor”.
And politicians are going to be encouraged to make even more unaffordable promises.
- Con/'At least we're not Sinn Fein'
Theresa May. She won a bigger vote than David Cameron (twice) and a bigger seat tally (once), she just has less photogenic friends and allies to choose from.
Tim Farron. I would have said the 10-year probability of decease of the Lib Dems was about evens... three days ago. Now it is a lot lower.
Diane Abbott. She got the message out there that Labour would pay a lot of money for more police - but nobody could remember how much! When law and order came about as a topic, I bet that helped.
Do you regret not standing in Broxtowe again ?
And if you had done so do you think you might have won ?
In a purely theoretical sense though, I wonder what the electoral effect of a Corbyn-led, 6 party rainbow minority coalition tackling Brexit would be? I'd hope it would expose his extremism and incompetence to disastrous effect, but on the other hand it might just normalise him and lead to Labour cannibalizing its former partners at the next election...
Majority with DUP is 13 (ie 328 vs 315).
Now that might sound similar to previous small majorities - ie after 2015 GE, Con had majority of 16.
But the difference is that with that majority of 16 they also then had the DUP to give an additional buffer - so in practice it was much more comfortable.
This time it's 13 and that's it - no other potential support anywhere (other than from Hoey, Field etc on Brexit - but that's only on Brexit).
Now to my mind 13 is just about manageable - but if it starts slipping through by-election losses it could quite quickly become untenable.
Three by-election losses would reduce it to 7 - that feels like the absolute minimum under which they could carry on with any sense of stability - by that I just mean without feeling that the Govt could fall at any moment.
So what does that mean? Reckon to get through the next two years, complete Brexit and then another GE under a new leader? Or if new leader comes in soon would they go for an immediate GE?
I can't imagine this lasting the full five years.
Tim Farron might like this song:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dRHetRTOD1Q
Long-Bailey and Burgon will feature somewhere. I don't believe that Kendall, Reeves, Flint, or Bradshaw will have anything to do with Corbyn.
For drama and tension it was beaten by BJO's heart-rending posts from a Tunisian hotel being attacked by terrorists.
But for political shock value (that you could have made a lot of money on had you followed it!) nothing could beat it!
Besides, as I said we could bung the EU an extra 10 billion for tinkering around the edges with FoM.