politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the overall majority odds moved on a dramatic night of pol
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Just been looking at the numbers and Lab are actually in reach of an overall majority now thanks to the SNP drop. 63 target gains in numerical majority (rather than %) would be as follows:
Southampton, Itchen 31
Glasgow South West 60
Glasgow East 75
Arfon 92
Airdrie & Shotts 202
Preseli Pembrokeshire 314
Motherwell & Wishaw 318
Pudsey 331
Thurrock 345
Hastings & Rye 346
Chipping Barnet 353
Lanark & Hamilton East 360
Inverclyde 384
Norwich North 507
Calder Valley 609
Aberconwy 635
Stoke-on-Trent South 663
Telford 720
Northampton North 807
Dunfermline & West Fife 844
Broxtowe 863
Bolton West 936
Na h-Eileanan an Iar 1,007
Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland 1,020
Mansfield 1,057
Glasgow North 1,060
Hendon 1,076
Northampton South 1,159
Pendle 1,279
Morecambe & Lunesdale 1,399
Putney 1,554
Camborne & Redruth 1,577
Edinburgh North & Leith 1,625
Finchley & Golders Green 1,657
Copeland 1,695
Milton Keynes South 1,725
Harrow East 1,757
Milton Keynes North 1,915
Blackpool North & Cleveleys 2,023
Glasgow South 2,027
Watford 2,092
Morley & Outwood 2,104
Vale of Glamorgan 2,190
Glasgow Central 2,267
West Dunbartonshire 2,288
Chingford & Woodford Green 2,438
Crawley 2,457
South Swindon 2,464
Worcester 2,490
Paisley & Renfrewshire South 2,536
Glasgow North West 2,561
Carlisle 2,599
Walsall North 2,601
Paisley & Renfrewshire North 2,613
Corby 2,690
North East Derbyshire 2,861
Reading West 2,876
Southport 2,914
Linlithgow & East Falkirk 2,919
Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire 3,110
Cities of London & Westminster 3,148
Rossendale & Darwen 3,216
Glenrothes 3,267
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Maybe!AndyJS said:
A week could have made all the difference in terms of those extra 8 seats.RobD said:
I think it could have only been a week shorter.AndyJS said:Maybe one of the biggest mistakes was to have such a long campaign. If you're having a snap election because the polls look good, surely the smart thing to do would be to have as short a campaign as possible so that time is limited if the polls do start to move against you. Theresa May's decision to have a very long campaign seems like idiocy now.
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Scottish independence is busted flush.williamglenn said:
Ironically having an independent centre-right party would also be a milestone towards operating as an independent country.Casino_Royale said:The SCon/Con relationship now seems to me to feel a bit like the CDU/CSU in Germany.
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The incidence Homophobia is not related to political affiliation.Sunil_Prasannan said:
"Many Labour voters share the DUP's homophobia" - discuss.MyBurningEars said:
The Tory party are about to undo a lot of Cameron's detoxification work, particularly with gay marriage, by associating themselves with a party whose views are not in line with the mainstream on the mainland. They are not planning on tainting themselves by seeking confidence and supply from a South Asian party, so the comparison really isn't relevant.Sunil_Prasannan said:
I don't believe in reincarnation or astrology, or hundreds of different deities!TheScreamingEagles said:
In the same way you're a Hindu, I'm a Muslim.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Where did I support the Caste system? I am an atheist FFS!TheScreamingEagles said:
You're obsessed.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Don't many people among YOUR co-religionists believe in homophobia and extremism?TheScreamingEagles said:Oh
Sinn Fein says Tory/DUP alliance is in contravention of terms of Good Friday Agreement.
Every time you mention this, I'll mention your tacit support for the vile caste system.
Do you deny many Muslims are homophobes and support terrorism?
Would you like me to list the homophobic laws India has?
But why do you pick on the DUP? Asian Indo-Pakistani culture is just as or even more homophobic!
But then disagreeing with something isn't the same as say inciting violence against the something you disagree with.0 -
Politics in Australia is just as shambolic. Changed PM so many times in recent years their paramedics no longer ask people with suspected concussion who the PM is!Dougie said:
As it is, no other parties than the Tories can form a government, but they have no majority and are vulnerable to being overthrown by a couple of adverse by-elections. Theresa May's authority has also been shot to pieces, but at a time when the country can't really afford two months of leadership campaigning, meaning she remains in place at the head of a zombie government which slowly leaks authority and credibility.
What a total clusterfuck. Emigration to Canada or Australia increasingly looks like a good idea.0 -
Ah but if you call a snap election with no preparation (as seems to have been the case) you can't really have a short campaign.AndyJS said:Maybe one of the biggest mistakes by the Tories was to have such a long campaign. If you've decided on a snap election because the polls look good, surely the smart thing to do would be to have as short a campaign as possible so that time is limited if the polls do start to move against you.
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Another thing this election has taught us:
Do The Sodding Debates!!
Seriously. I honestly mean this, I don't think May would have done that badly in them. Might have come across quite well as a dull and dutiful rock amidst the waves of squabbling lefties. Might have been some downsides, but you know what was the biggest downside? Not showing up and giving your opponents the "she's running scared" narrative.
I'm not a fan of debates. Certainly, the 7-party ones leave an awful lot to be desired in terms of format and content. But they are here to stay now. And you cannot influence the narrative in your favour if you fail to show up.0 -
I suspect this will be the last snap election we see in a while (not counting the government falling here)glw said:
Ah but if you call a snap election with no preparation (as seems to have been the case) you can't really have a short campaign.AndyJS said:Maybe one of the biggest mistakes by the Tories was to have such a long campaign. If you've decided on a snap election because the polls look good, surely the smart thing to do would be to have as short a campaign as possible so that time is limited if the polls do start to move against you.
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Before promptly rebranding the Conservatives as the Ruth Unionist Party.Scott_P said:
Murdo Fraser must feel pretty irked that Ruth stood on a no change platform and then promptly nicked his idea even if she did it as stealth.0 -
Oh no, we are used to people looking at us in disdain from across the water.EPG said:
Yeah. North Korea. Please. Unionist snowflakes need to get over the fact that Mummy Britain is looking at them, perhaps for the first time, in disdain.Y0kel said:
Progressive Democratic Socialism...that sounds like something North Korea would put out in a communique...glw said:
Exactly. Whereas SF hypothetically support the Coalition of Chaos would be promoting progressive democratic socialism.Casino_Royale said:
Their real crime is keeping the Tories in power.Lucian_Fletcher said:It's surreal. I'm now defending the DUP on social media. I think I will never forgive the Corbyn fans for that. They seem to be trying to suggest they are an unmasked version of the KKK
What queasy conservatives need to get over, the little snowflakes, is no DUP involvement then door open for Corbyn. You think Arlene Foster wants that, you think Conservative voters want that?
Get f**king real
And we couldn't give a fuck. We exist, we vote, hello democracy.0 -
Turnout was only up by 2.6%. Is that consistent with the surge in youth turnout we keep being told about?0
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I couldn't care less about the abuse. That will come anyway because the Tories have had the temerity to deny Corbyn No. 10 Downing Street.Y0kel said:
Progressive Democratic Socialism...that sounds like something North Korea would put out in a communique...glw said:
Exactly. Whereas SF hypothetically support the Coalition of Chaos would be promoting progressive democratic socialism.Casino_Royale said:
Their real crime is keeping the Tories in power.Lucian_Fletcher said:It's surreal. I'm now defending the DUP on social media. I think I will never forgive the Corbyn fans for that. They seem to be trying to suggest they are an unmasked version of the KKK
What queasy conservatives need to get over, the little snowflakes, is no DUP involvement then door open for Corbyn. You think Arlene Foster wants that, you think Conservative voters want that?
Get f**king real
I'm confident a Con-DUP deal could hold for a couple of years, possibly with a new Con PM. Meanwhile, I'd be working on a credible end to austerity and destroying the economic credentials of the Far Left.0 -
The story of the election appears to be differential turnout - you're right that absolute turnout wasn't up bigly, though.AndyJS said:Turnout was only up by 2.6%. Is that consistent with the surge in youth turnout we keep being told about?
A little frustrating for me, as I'd have won a very large amount if it pipped 70%.0 -
Also it is probably a good idea to think a bit more about what you put in a manifesto.RobD said:
I suspect this will be the last snap election we see in a while (not counting the government falling here)glw said:
Ah but if you call a snap election with no preparation (as seems to have been the case) you can't really have a short campaign.AndyJS said:Maybe one of the biggest mistakes by the Tories was to have such a long campaign. If you've decided on a snap election because the polls look good, surely the smart thing to do would be to have as short a campaign as possible so that time is limited if the polls do start to move against you.
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The current format of the debates are terrible - she should have offered Corbyn one on one and froze the rest out.numbertwelve said:Another thing this election has taught us:
Do The Sodding Debates!!
Seriously. I honestly mean this, I don't think May would have done that badly in them. Might have come across quite well as a dull and dutiful rock amidst the waves of squabbling lefties. Might have been some downsides, but you know what was the biggest downside? Not showing up and giving your opponents the "she's running scared" narrative.
I'm not a fan of debates. Certainly, the 7-party ones leave an awful lot to be desired in terms of format and content. But they are here to stay now. And you cannot influence the narrative in your favour if you fail to show up.0 -
Clicked the link after reading your message. I was expecting https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ag1o3koTLWMThe_Apocalypse said:0 -
I've not voted Tory since 1992 mainly because of Major's support for the Union. How could I ever support a party containing enough nutters to elect IDS as leader? Cameron did good things but through it all away by governing in the interests of the Tory party rather the nation.Tykejohnno said:
I thought you were in the pb.com Tories tribe some years back ;-)Chris_A said:Many thanks to all who helped pb.com keep going last night, The only time I had any difficulties getting on was when the exit poll was published and the denial from the pb.com Tories was a an absolute delight to behold.
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I would hope potential successors to TMay will be asked at hustings or by interviewers whether they will participate in GE debates and lose points for any other answer than "yes".numbertwelve said:Another thing this election has taught us:
Do The Sodding Debates!!
Seriously. I honestly mean this, I don't think May would have done that badly in them. Might have come across quite well as a dull and dutiful rock amidst the waves of squabbling lefties. Might have been some downsides, but you know what was the biggest downside? Not showing up and giving your opponents the "she's running scared" narrative.
I'm not a fan of debates. Certainly, the 7-party ones leave an awful lot to be desired in terms of format and content. But they are here to stay now. And you cannot influence the narrative in your favour if you fail to show up.0 -
Not a good idea having a vote in half-term week.AndyJS said:
A week could have made all the difference in terms of those extra 8 seats.RobD said:
I think it could have only been a week shorter.AndyJS said:Maybe one of the biggest mistakes was to have such a long campaign. If you're having a snap election because the polls look good, surely the smart thing to do would be to have as short a campaign as possible so that time is limited if the polls do start to move against you. Theresa May's decision to have a very long campaign seems like idiocy now.
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One for TSE: Amber Rudd-Michael Gove dream ticket. Michael Gove enobles Osborne.
Osborne comes back as the new Lord Mandelson??0 -
Theresa May is being propped up by a party which associated with actual gun-runners, after a campaign where she tried to use that very association against her opponent. Hope the DUP snowflakes aren't going to be surprised that their safe space is being penetrated by appalled British eyes.0
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It was the bloody electorate that got it wrong ..... whoops I've stolen an old Remoaner line that is now superseded by "the electorate has voted for a soft Brexit" or an approximation of that.RobD said:
That can't be right.. PB Tories are never wrongChris_A said:Many thanks to all who helped pb.com keep going last night, The only time I had any difficulties getting on was when the exit poll was published and the denial from the pb.com Tories was a an absolute delight to behold.
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You lost. Get over it.EPG said:
Yeah. North Korea. Please. Unionist snowflakes need to get over the fact that Mummy Britain is looking at them, perhaps for the first time, in disdain.Y0kel said:
Progressive Democratic Socialism...that sounds like something North Korea would put out in a communique...glw said:
Exactly. Whereas SF hypothetically support the Coalition of Chaos would be promoting progressive democratic socialism.Casino_Royale said:
Their real crime is keeping the Tories in power.Lucian_Fletcher said:It's surreal. I'm now defending the DUP on social media. I think I will never forgive the Corbyn fans for that. They seem to be trying to suggest they are an unmasked version of the KKK
What queasy conservatives need to get over, the little snowflakes, is no DUP involvement then door open for Corbyn. You think Arlene Foster wants that, you think Conservative voters want that?
Get f**king real0 -
And that is the one message that the most people hear about the debate, as most people don't watch them.numbertwelve said:Not showing up and giving your opponents the "she's running scared" narrative.
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They must pay the big bucks for that kind of insight.Scott_P said:0 -
Whats your problem with democractic votes?EPG said:Theresa May is being propped up by a party which associated with actual gun-runners, after a campaign where she tried to use that very association against her opponent. Hope the DUP snowflakes aren't going to be surprised that their safe space is being penetrated by appalled British eyes.
Only when it suits you?0 -
A couple of ways I can think of.Sean_F said:
I think she was a rotten campaigner.midwinter said:
She lost seats and Cameron's majority to Jeremy Corbyn ffs . With no Ukip or lib dem challenge worth its salt. A slight difference I'd say.Sean_F said:There's not much difference between the appeal of May and Cameron, overall. One of them won 306 and 330 seats, the other won 318.
Osborne though, is about as popular as AIDS.
But, I think others would have struggled to do better.
People are sick of austerity. I don't see any easy way around this.
* Don't call an unnecessary election in the middle of said austerity with no light at the end of the tunnel.
* In your manifesto have at least one bright, shiny attractive proposition that enthuses people that you can point to when people point at the austerity and say "yes but it will be worth it because we will deliver this".
* Bother to turn up to the debates.
* Look like you care what voters think of you.
* Look like you're not just taking everyone for granted.
* Demonstrate that we are all in this together.
Points 2 and 3 are the main ones. I'm a politics geek and I can't think of anything in the Tory manifesto that was designed to create enthusiasm. The 2015 Tory manifesto had things like a seven day NHS etc - what did the 2017 manifesto have?
While running a Presidential campaign while running away from the Presidential debates was just pathetic. The days when we didn't have debates were history already. Nobody likes a coward, it was being a coward that cost Brown his respect after the election that never was - May managed to be a coward while actually having an election. That takes some doing.0 -
Foreign secretary from the Lords?Casino_Royale said:One for TSE: Amber Rudd-Michael Gove dream ticket. Michael Gove enobles Osborne.
Osborne comes back as the new Lord Mandelson??
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She probably should have coincided the GE with the local elections.KentRising said:
Not a good idea having a vote in half-term week.AndyJS said:
A week could have made all the difference in terms of those extra 8 seats.RobD said:
I think it could have only been a week shorter.AndyJS said:Maybe one of the biggest mistakes was to have such a long campaign. If you're having a snap election because the polls look good, surely the smart thing to do would be to have as short a campaign as possible so that time is limited if the polls do start to move against you. Theresa May's decision to have a very long campaign seems like idiocy now.
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Wondered if you were exaggerating, and then I found this!KentRising said:
Politics in Australia is just as shambolic. Changed PM so many times in recent years their paramedics no longer ask people with suspected concussion who the PM is!Dougie said:
As it is, no other parties than the Tories can form a government, but they have no majority and are vulnerable to being overthrown by a couple of adverse by-elections. Theresa May's authority has also been shot to pieces, but at a time when the country can't really afford two months of leadership campaigning, meaning she remains in place at the head of a zombie government which slowly leaks authority and credibility.
What a total clusterfuck. Emigration to Canada or Australia increasingly looks like a good idea.
PARAMEDICS are avoiding gauging patients’ consciousness by asking them who the Prime Minister is, given the rapidly revolving door in the nation’s top job.
With four prime ministers in fewer than three years — the latest being Malcolm Turnbull — the constantly changing subject was proving so perplexing for even healthy patients that paramedics were avoiding the question or are in some cases providing clues.
In past decades of political stability the question was a quick means of establishing a person’s level of consciousness.
Paramedics now have the option of dropping the question while one senior paramedic said if he asked patients who the nation’s leader was he had to offer clues.0 -
Was turnout down anywhere? A list would be interesting.Pong said:
The story of the election appears to be differential turnout - you're right that absolute turnout wasn't up bigly, though.AndyJS said:Turnout was only up by 2.6%. Is that consistent with the surge in youth turnout we keep being told about?
A little frustrating for me, as I'd have won a very large amount if it pipped 70%.0 -
That's the theme tune of the May campaign.Stereotomy said:
Clicked the link after reading your message. I was expecting https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ag1o3koTLWMThe_Apocalypse said:
Meanwhile, Owen Jones....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UlU2vMSpQE0 -
I could live with that.Casino_Royale said:One for TSE: Amber Rudd-Michael Gove dream ticket. Michael Gove enobles Osborne.
Osborne comes back as the new Lord Mandelson??0 -
I don't think it would be hard for the Conservatives to get a new leader who can feel closer to the public and show a bit of sunshine.0
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I would say we got almost exactly what we voted for. Labour's seats are almost in exact proportion to its vote share, and the Tories punch a little above their vote share. None of the 83% can really complain about that. We voted for a hung Parliament.AndyJS said:
Since 2010, the British democratic system has really lost the link between what you vote for and what you get. If May goes this week after getting Blair '97 numbers of votes, and there isn't an election within, say, a year or two, then a lot of people haven't got what they voted for. That troubles me.
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@MarqueeMark, I'm sure you'll be happy to join me in welcoming the participation of all those young people who found the time to put their playstations down and go out in the rain to do their civic duty.0
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The ww2 in realtime account is currently doing the 1945 election campaign, some wonderful posters
https://twitter.com/RealTimeWWII/status/8732901329626316800 -
I think she needed the first two weeks in case the parliamentary vote failed...AndyJS said:Maybe one of the biggest mistakes by the Tories was to have such a long campaign. If you've decided on a snap election because the polls look good, surely the smart thing to do would be to have as short a campaign as possible so that time is limited if the polls do start to move against you.
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Hereditary peerage, of course. Think of it as an apology from the Tory party...TheScreamingEagles said:
I could live with that.Casino_Royale said:One for TSE: Amber Rudd-Michael Gove dream ticket. Michael Gove enobles Osborne.
Osborne comes back as the new Lord Mandelson?? 0 -
Interesting list, lot of those seats are in Scotland and Labour majority would see the SNP numbers halvedGarethoftheVale2 said:Just been looking at the numbers and Lab are actually in reach of an overall majority now thanks to the SNP drop. 63 target gains in numerical majority (rather than %) would be as follows:
Southampton, Itchen 31
Glasgow South West 60
Glasgow East 75
Arfon 92
Airdrie & Shotts 202
Preseli Pembrokeshire 314
Motherwell & Wishaw 318
Pudsey 331
Thurrock 345
Hastings & Rye 346
Chipping Barnet 353
Lanark & Hamilton East 360
Inverclyde 384
Norwich North 507
Calder Valley 609
Aberconwy 635
Stoke-on-Trent South 663
Telford 720
Northampton North 807
Dunfermline & West Fife 844
Broxtowe 863
Bolton West 936
Na h-Eileanan an Iar 1,007
Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland 1,020
Mansfield 1,057
Glasgow North 1,060
Hendon 1,076
Northampton South 1,159
Pendle 1,279
Morecambe & Lunesdale 1,399
Putney 1,554
Camborne & Redruth 1,577
Edinburgh North & Leith 1,625
Finchley & Golders Green 1,657
Copeland 1,695
Milton Keynes South 1,725
Harrow East 1,757
Milton Keynes North 1,915
Blackpool North & Cleveleys 2,023
Glasgow South 2,027
Watford 2,092
Morley & Outwood 2,104
Vale of Glamorgan 2,190
Glasgow Central 2,267
West Dunbartonshire 2,288
Chingford & Woodford Green 2,438
Crawley 2,457
South Swindon 2,464
Worcester 2,490
Paisley & Renfrewshire South 2,536
Glasgow North West 2,561
Carlisle 2,599
Walsall North 2,601
Paisley & Renfrewshire North 2,613
Corby 2,690
North East Derbyshire 2,861
Reading West 2,876
Southport 2,914
Linlithgow & East Falkirk 2,919
Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire 3,110
Cities of London & Westminster 3,148
Rossendale & Darwen 3,216
Glenrothes 3,2670 -
Conversely to get to a healthy majority of 50, the Cons need to gain 32 seats as follows:
Perth & North Perthshire 21
Dudley North 22
Newcastle-under-Lyme 30
Crewe & Nantwich 48
Canterbury 187
Barrow & Furness 209
Keighley 249
Lanark & Hamilton East 266
Ashfield 441
Bishop Auckland 502
Peterborough 607
Stroud 687
Westmorland & Lonsdale 777
Bedford 789
Oxford West & Abingdon 816
Ipswich 831
Stockton South 888
Colne Valley 978
Edinburgh South West 1,097
Warwick & Leamington 1,206
Central Ayrshire 1,267
Penistone & Stocksbridge 1,322
Argyll & Bute 1,328
Carshalton & Wallington 1,369
Lincoln 1,538
Portsmouth South 1,554
Eastbourne 1,609
Wrexham 1,832
Derby North 2,015
Wolverhampton South West 2,175
Wakefield 2,176
High Peak 2,322
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Without the Shinners, the Coalition of Chaos can only muster 315 seats.FF43 said:
The "coalition of chaos" meme is big amongst my non-politically involved acquaintance right now.rcs1000 said:From Twitter
To be fair Theresa May warned of coalition of chaos propped up by extremist terrorist sympathisers. She just didn't say she'd be leading it.0 -
Brexit is dead
@iankatz1000: .@nadhimzahawi concedes if PM said she did not have sufficient mandate for Brexit talks before election she can't have one now #newsnight0 -
Good analysis.Dougie said:I suspect a lot of the criticism of May's proposed deal with the DUP is simply a manifestation of post-election hysteria, and doesn't really reflect the perception of the man on the Clapham omnibus (who in fairness is probably a Corbynite given the way London voted).
However, two points (unrelated to each other):
1) In the past Labour has not been that willing to criticise the Tories too loudly for potentially working with the DUP because they're not willing to endanger the peace process and because they might also need the DUP's assistance in the future. However, with the DUP absolutely ruling out working with Corbyn, and Corbyn being in favour of Irish unification, I think that restraint might well not be there this time.
2) I wonder if this result is not the worst possible result for the Tories. If they had won around ten seats less, Corbyn would have come to power on the back of the SNP and odds and sods. And, as David Herdson predicted a couple of weeks ago, a government led by him would probably have been incredibly weak and incompetent, having to deal with the contradictory demands of their voting coalition on Brexit, and in short time incredibly unpopular. With the Tories sitting on a bit over 300 seats and gaining seats at by-elections, they could have eventually succeeded in passing a vote of no confidence, bringing about an election in which they would likely won a good majority.
Ten-fifteen seats more and the Conservatives would have a majority, wouldn't need to depend on the DUP and would exercise a much greater degree of control over the political scene.
As it is, no other parties than the Tories can form a government, but they have no majority and are vulnerable to being overthrown by a couple of adverse by-elections. Theresa May's authority has also been shot to pieces, but at a time when the country can't really afford two months of leadership campaigning, meaning she remains in place at the head of a zombie government which slowly leaks authority and credibility.
What a total clusterfuck. Emigration to Canada or Australia increasingly looks like a good idea.
However if Con had 10 seats less I suspect Corbyn would have come in, governed in a fairly moderate way for 6 months which got people used to the concept of him as PM without doing anything too wild, and then Corbyn would have called another GE which would have given him a majority.0 -
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I wonder, could the next election (if it is this year) be fought on leave/remain lines.. with Labour promising to basically annul the referendum result?0
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I think my view on Ruth is now akin to tse and his Ozzie. Saved us from the trots.RobD said:0 -
Syntax a wee bit astray?Sean_F said:
Scottish independence is busted flush.williamglenn said:
Ironically having an independent centre-right party would also be a milestone towards operating as an independent country.Casino_Royale said:The SCon/Con relationship now seems to me to feel a bit like the CDU/CSU in Germany.
How's your re-rat to the Tessy Brexit party going?
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I think that it was down in across fair bit of Scotland, especially in seats that the SNP still hold.AndyJS said:
Was turnout down anywhere? A list would be interesting.Pong said:
The story of the election appears to be differential turnout - you're right that absolute turnout wasn't up bigly, though.AndyJS said:Turnout was only up by 2.6%. Is that consistent with the surge in youth turnout we keep being told about?
A little frustrating for me, as I'd have won a very large amount if it pipped 70%.0 -
I'm of the view that it is right that the Tories are the ones forming the next government - Labour are having a laugh when they say that they can seriously govern with 261 seats. But I am also not exactly ecstatic that it's with the DUP, and I do think that by association they will re-toxify the Conservative brand.0
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Halved again? Please let that happen!Saltire said:
Interesting list, lot of those seats are in Scotland and Labour majority would see the SNP numbers halvedGarethoftheVale2 said:Just been looking at the numbers and Lab are actually in reach of an overall majority now thanks to the SNP drop. 63 target gains in numerical majority (rather than %) would be as follows:
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That's one of the reasons she has to go...Scott_P said:Brexit is dead
@iankatz1000: .@nadhimzahawi concedes if PM said she did not have sufficient mandate for Brexit talks before election she can't have one now #newsnight0 -
Newsnight discussing what I was talking about earlier, that UKIP not standing in 50% of seats probably cost the Tories an overall majority.0
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Tories and Unionists are allies. Live with it.EPG said:Theresa May is being propped up by a party which associated with actual gun-runners, after a campaign where she tried to use that very association against her opponent. Hope the DUP snowflakes aren't going to be surprised that their safe space is being penetrated by appalled British eyes.
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@iankatz1000: .@nadhimzahawi says Theresa May can govern for five years with minority govt. @johnprescott says she won't last five months #newsnight0
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Your woman threw away your majority. Suck it up, guys.Sean_F said:
You lost. Get over it.EPG said:
Yeah. North Korea. Please. Unionist snowflakes need to get over the fact that Mummy Britain is looking at them, perhaps for the first time, in disdain.Y0kel said:
Progressive Democratic Socialism...that sounds like something North Korea would put out in a communique...glw said:
Exactly. Whereas SF hypothetically support the Coalition of Chaos would be promoting progressive democratic socialism.Casino_Royale said:
Their real crime is keeping the Tories in power.Lucian_Fletcher said:It's surreal. I'm now defending the DUP on social media. I think I will never forgive the Corbyn fans for that. They seem to be trying to suggest they are an unmasked version of the KKK
What queasy conservatives need to get over, the little snowflakes, is no DUP involvement then door open for Corbyn. You think Arlene Foster wants that, you think Conservative voters want that?
Get f**king real0 -
People overestimate Gove on here. He's undoubtedly a clever man, but I do not think he is prime ministerial.Casino_Royale said:One for TSE: Amber Rudd-Michael Gove dream ticket. Michael Gove enobles Osborne.
Osborne comes back as the new Lord Mandelson??
Rudd, I could get behind. But I fear her now minuscule majority will put paid to that at the moment.
I want Ruth to come to Westminster
0 -
I would agree with all of that.Philip_Thompson said:
A couple of ways I can think of.Sean_F said:
I think she was a rotten campaigner.midwinter said:
She lost seats and Cameron's majority to Jeremy Corbyn ffs . With no Ukip or lib dem challenge worth its salt. A slight difference I'd say.Sean_F said:There's not much difference between the appeal of May and Cameron, overall. One of them won 306 and 330 seats, the other won 318.
Osborne though, is about as popular as AIDS.
But, I think others would have struggled to do better.
People are sick of austerity. I don't see any easy way around this.
* Don't call an unnecessary election in the middle of said austerity with no light at the end of the tunnel.
* In your manifesto have at least one bright, shiny attractive proposition that enthuses people that you can point to when people point at the austerity and say "yes but it will be worth it because we will deliver this".
* Bother to turn up to the debates.
* Look like you care what voters think of you.
* Look like you're not just taking everyone for granted.
* Demonstrate that we are all in this together.
Points 2 and 3 are the main ones. I'm a politics geek and I can't think of anything in the Tory manifesto that was designed to create enthusiasm. The 2015 Tory manifesto had things like a seven day NHS etc - what did the 2017 manifesto have?
While running a Presidential campaign while running away from the Presidential debates was just pathetic. The days when we didn't have debates were history already. Nobody likes a coward, it was being a coward that cost Brown his respect after the election that never was - May managed to be a coward while actually having an election. That takes some doing.
The bright shiny thing could have been an extra 350 mill for the NHS every week!
I would also add don't include in you manifesto things that the party has spend so much time criticizing at the last election i.e. price caps on energy. by implication you endorse the other party's economic judgment! and demoralize your won supporters.0 -
I don't buy the argument that a small majority means she can't be a PM. If she was PM and lost her seat but the Tories gained overall, she surely would find a new seat relatively quickly? Somewhat embarrassing, but not the end of the world.numbertwelve said:
People overestimate Gove on here. He's undoubtedly a clever man, but I do not think he is prime ministerial.Casino_Royale said:One for TSE: Amber Rudd-Michael Gove dream ticket. Michael Gove enobles Osborne.
Osborne comes back as the new Lord Mandelson??
Rudd, I could get behind. But I fear her now minuscule majority will put paid to that at the moment.
I want Ruth to come to Westminster0 -
I think she could have got away with just debating Jezza.numbertwelve said:Another thing this election has taught us:
Do The Sodding Debates!!
Seriously. I honestly mean this, I don't think May would have done that badly in them. Might have come across quite well as a dull and dutiful rock amidst the waves of squabbling lefties. Might have been some downsides, but you know what was the biggest downside? Not showing up and giving your opponents the "she's running scared" narrative.
I'm not a fan of debates. Certainly, the 7-party ones leave an awful lot to be desired in terms of format and content. But they are here to stay now. And you cannot influence the narrative in your favour if you fail to show up.0 -
-
But we agree Mark Reckless is a c*** who deserves a red hot poker up his arse.Scrapheap_as_was said:
I think my view on Ruth is now akin to tse and his Ozzie. Saved us from the trots.RobD said:0 -
It was having nothing to say for most of the campaign that did the damage since other narratives arose to fill the gap. It was like the Tories had never taken part in a general election campaign before.AndyJS said:Maybe one of the biggest mistakes by the Tories was to have such a long campaign. If you've decided on a snap election because the polls look good, surely the smart thing to do would be to have as short a campaign as possible so that time is limited if the polls do start to move against you.
0 -
Looking at the BBC map it seems have also fallen back in northern leave constituenciesSaltire said:
I think that it was down in across fair bit of Scotland, especially in seats that the SNP still hold.AndyJS said:
Was turnout down anywhere? A list would be interesting.Pong said:
The story of the election appears to be differential turnout - you're right that absolute turnout wasn't up bigly, though.AndyJS said:Turnout was only up by 2.6%. Is that consistent with the surge in youth turnout we keep being told about?
A little frustrating for me, as I'd have won a very large amount if it pipped 70%.0 -
This could be the best thing that could have happened - if the Corbyn surge had not happened now and been defeated by a whisker, he could have made his move in 2020 and won. As it is we now know what we are faced with. He is a brilliant campaigner but he's still as mad as a box of frogs and his policies are worse, and can be attacked. He can't do too many stadium rallies outside of election campaigns, he is 68 and while he can ensure that his successor shares his politics, it's less easy to hand on the charisma.Casino_Royale said:
Conversely, none of the issues about Jeremy Corbyn have gone away.AndyJS said:Maybe one of the biggest mistakes by the Tories was to have such a long campaign. If you've decided on a snap election because the polls look good, surely the smart thing to do would be to have as short a campaign as possible so that time is limited if the polls do start to move against you.
He's not the messiah. And a long period in opposition with him fully under the spotlight - having become so popular during the campaign - might not necessarily be to his benefit.
If I were the Tories, I'd be undermining his economics and credibility for the next few years relentlessly, whilst positively engagingly with young voters-middle aged with an offer of their own based on economic reality.0 -
Yes, turnout was down in Scotland bringing it in line with the UK as a whole I thinkSaltire said:
I think that it was down in across fair bit of Scotland, especially in seats that the SNP still hold.AndyJS said:
Was turnout down anywhere? A list would be interesting.Pong said:
The story of the election appears to be differential turnout - you're right that absolute turnout wasn't up bigly, though.AndyJS said:Turnout was only up by 2.6%. Is that consistent with the surge in youth turnout we keep being told about?
A little frustrating for me, as I'd have won a very large amount if it pipped 70%.0 -
I suspect the true hard work of understanding what really happened in this election has only just begun.Y0kel said:
Until we can gauge whether some 2015 voters stayed at home and for whom they voted in 2015, that'd be useful data.AndyJS said:Turnout was only up by 2.6%. Is that consistent with the surge in youth turnout we keep being told about?
I certainly want to take a second look at the YouGov model.0 -
It's hard to disagree.Philip_Thompson said:
A couple of ways I can think of.Sean_F said:
I think she was a rotten campaigner.midwinter said:
She lost seats and Cameron's majority to Jeremy Corbyn ffs . With no Ukip or lib dem challenge worth its salt. A slight difference I'd say.Sean_F said:There's not much difference between the appeal of May and Cameron, overall. One of them won 306 and 330 seats, the other won 318.
Osborne though, is about as popular as AIDS.
But, I think others would have struggled to do better.
People are sick of austerity. I don't see any easy way around this.
* Don't call an unnecessary election in the middle of said austerity with no light at the end of the tunnel.
* In your manifesto have at least one bright, shiny attractive proposition that enthuses people that you can point to when people point at the austerity and say "yes but it will be worth it because we will deliver this".
* Bother to turn up to the debates.
* Look like you care what voters think of you.
* Look like you're not just taking everyone for granted.
* Demonstrate that we are all in this together.
Points 2 and 3 are the main ones. I'm a politics geek and I can't think of anything in the Tory manifesto that was designed to create enthusiasm. The 2015 Tory manifesto had things like a seven day NHS etc - what did the 2017 manifesto have?
While running a Presidential campaign while running away from the Presidential debates was just pathetic. The days when we didn't have debates were history already. Nobody likes a coward, it was being a coward that cost Brown his respect after the election that never was - May managed to be a coward while actually having an election. That takes some doing.0 -
No it is not, this vote was not a rejection of Brexit outside of Remain areas, it was a vote for an easing of austerity and against paying more for social care.Scott_P said:Brexit is dead
@iankatz1000: .@nadhimzahawi concedes if PM said she did not have sufficient mandate for Brexit talks before election she can't have one now #newsnight0 -
I'm not watching News night as I don't have a TV, but do they have a proper statistical analysis to back this up? as in has somebody looked at where UKIP did not stand and was there a bigger swing to Labor there, or are they just going of hunches?AndyJS said:Newsnight discussing what I was talking about earlier, that UKIP not standing in 50% of seats probably cost the Tories an overall majority.
0 -
The man on the Clapham omnibus doesn't know anything about the DUP. They are about to find out.0
-
Turnout was down in Scotland compared to 2015.AndyJS said:
Was turnout down anywhere? A list would be interesting.Pong said:
The story of the election appears to be differential turnout - you're right that absolute turnout wasn't up bigly, though.AndyJS said:Turnout was only up by 2.6%. Is that consistent with the surge in youth turnout we keep being told about?
A little frustrating for me, as I'd have won a very large amount if it pipped 70%.0 -
For eternity.TheScreamingEagles said:
But we agree Mark Reckless is a c*** who deserves a red hot poker up his arse.Scrapheap_as_was said:
I think my view on Ruth is now akin to tse and his Ozzie. Saved us from the trots.RobD said:
Spursy is going to feature on Sunday isn't it0 -
No, it will be Boris no contest. Woman on BBC London News says she did not vote for May but would have voted for Boris. Boris could get a majority of 50 I think against Corbyn. Could even be Davis leads during negotiations then Boris takes over post Brexit before electionCasino_Royale said:One for TSE: Amber Rudd-Michael Gove dream ticket. Michael Gove enobles Osborne.
Osborne comes back as the new Lord Mandelson??
0 -
Yes, nothing else will do. The point about the loopier formats are that they were invented ad hoc to cope with Dave's debate shyness.ReggieCide said:
I think she could have got away with just debating Jezza.numbertwelve said:Another thing this election has taught us:
Do The Sodding Debates!!
Seriously. I honestly mean this, I don't think May would have done that badly in them. Might have come across quite well as a dull and dutiful rock amidst the waves of squabbling lefties. Might have been some downsides, but you know what was the biggest downside? Not showing up and giving your opponents the "she's running scared" narrative.
I'm not a fan of debates. Certainly, the 7-party ones leave an awful lot to be desired in terms of format and content. But they are here to stay now. And you cannot influence the narrative in your favour if you fail to show up.
Mind you, even her wins at PMQs were pretty toe-curling. If she had done a one on one with a fired up Jezza she might well have been monstered.0 -
How do you know?HYUFD said:
No it is not, this vote was not a rejection of Brexit outside of Remain areas, it was a vote for an easing of austerity and against paying more for social care.Scott_P said:Brexit is dead
@iankatz1000: .@nadhimzahawi concedes if PM said she did not have sufficient mandate for Brexit talks before election she can't have one now #newsnight0 -
I found the manifesto extremely hard work.Philip_Thompson said:
A couple of ways I can think of.Sean_F said:
I think she was a rotten campaigner.midwinter said:
She lost seats and Cameron's majority to Jeremy Corbyn ffs . With no Ukip or lib dem challenge worth its salt. A slight difference I'd say.Sean_F said:There's not much difference between the appeal of May and Cameron, overall. One of them won 306 and 330 seats, the other won 318.
Osborne though, is about as popular as AIDS.
But, I think others would have struggled to do better.
People are sick of austerity. I don't see any easy way around this.
* Don't call an unnecessary election in the middle of said austerity with no light at the end of the tunnel.
* In your manifesto have at least one bright, shiny attractive proposition that enthuses people that you can point to when people point at the austerity and say "yes but it will be worth it because we will deliver this".
* Bother to turn up to the debates.
* Look like you care what voters think of you.
* Look like you're not just taking everyone for granted.
* Demonstrate that we are all in this together.
Points 2 and 3 are the main ones. I'm a politics geek and I can't think of anything in the Tory manifesto that was designed to create enthusiasm. The 2015 Tory manifesto had things like a seven day NHS etc - what did the 2017 manifesto have?
While running a Presidential campaign while running away from the Presidential debates was just pathetic. The days when we didn't have debates were history already. Nobody likes a coward, it was being a coward that cost Brown his respect after the election that never was - May managed to be a coward while actually having an election. That takes some doing.
There were a few nuggets in there, but they were buried within it and couched in vague language.
Even the presentation didn't help. Long reams of text, huge paragraphs, and very few pictures/diagrams or tables to break it up.
The GE2015 manifesto was far better.0 -
Actually I think it would be worse than embarrasing. As silly as it is that we allow voters in one tiny corner of the realm to hold the power over electing our prime minister, the narrative and mood music that would come out of "our leader lost their seat" would make their position even shakier than Mays right now. It's not right, but it wouldn't play well.RobD said:
I don't buy the argument that a small majority means she can't be a PM. If she was PM and lost her seat but the Tories gained overall, she surely would find a new seat relatively quickly? Somewhat embarrassing, but not the end of the world.numbertwelve said:
People overestimate Gove on here. He's undoubtedly a clever man, but I do not think he is prime ministerial.Casino_Royale said:One for TSE: Amber Rudd-Michael Gove dream ticket. Michael Gove enobles Osborne.
Osborne comes back as the new Lord Mandelson??
Rudd, I could get behind. But I fear her now minuscule majority will put paid to that at the moment.
I want Ruth to come to Westminster
0 -
Nope.Scrapheap_as_was said:
For eternity.TheScreamingEagles said:
But we agree Mark Reckless is a c*** who deserves a red hot poker up his arse.Scrapheap_as_was said:
I think my view on Ruth is now akin to tse and his Ozzie. Saved us from the trots.RobD said:
Spursy is going to feature on Sunday isn't it0 -
I was thinking about this earlier. Labour got about 25% of Leave voters, vs just over 50% of Remain voters, according (I think) to YouGov - apologies if I have misremembered the exact figures, I'm knackered.RobD said:I wonder, could the next election (if it is this year) be fought on leave/remain lines.. with Labour promising to basically annul the referendum result?
It's not plausible that that proportion of Leave voters were all voting Labour as Regrexiters, if the opinion polls about Regret are correct. A lot of Kippers went back to their natural home. These voters are not just a significant chunk of Labour's voter coalition (you don't want to abandon, say, half of them if you are fighting for a majority) but in lots of northern and Midlands constituencies I suspect they were the final line of defence that saw Labour home, in seats where the Tories had done the Conservative + UKIP > Labour arithmetic and thought they were in with a good chance.
It also seems unlikely that with such a high share of Remain voters already in the net (presumably this is largely based on demographics, especially age) that going All-Out Remain can reel many more in.
It would therefore surprise me if, in the event of a new election before Brexit is complete, Labour went down the "Revoke Article 50" line, and a bigger surprise if they took that approach and then won.
Running on a "second referendum on the final deal" ticket, though, seems to me more plausible.0 -
"Easing of austerity" is not compatible with Brexit.HYUFD said:this vote was not a rejection of Brexit outside of Remain areas, it was a vote for an easing of austerity and against paying more for social care.
Brexit is dead, not because the electorate voted against it per se, but because it cannot be delivered.
The votes in the HoC for all the dirty work are not there.0 -
It's like how when Dave put foxhunting in the GE2015 manifesto it wasn't an issue, but when Theresa May did in the GE2017 manifesto, it was.Sean_F said:
It differentiates them from the common herd.Casino_Royale said:
I don't understand why so many present-day Conservatives support unrestricted migration, when that certainly wasn't the case from the 1950s to the 1980s.Sean_F said:
The view is that people will flock to the Conservatives if they promise to slash public spending and taxes, promote mass migration, and support the EU.Y0kel said:I have never understood the idea amongst some Conservatives that Osborne could be leader.
Net vote loser.
One of the reasons Thatcher got elected, and stayed in office, is immigration and she passed a couple of major pieces of legislation in her first term to address it.
They worked, it went away as an issue, and she got re-elected.
The pledges were identical.0 -
Who can blame them for voting for Father Christmas when they found out he was real after allMonksfield said:@MarqueeMark, I'm sure you'll be happy to join me in welcoming the participation of all those young people who found the time to put their playstations down and go out in the rain to do their civic duty.
0 -
With whom would she have been debating Jezza?ReggieCide said:
I think she could have got away with just debating Jezza.numbertwelve said:Another thing this election has taught us:
Do The Sodding Debates!!
Seriously. I honestly mean this, I don't think May would have done that badly in them. Might have come across quite well as a dull and dutiful rock amidst the waves of squabbling lefties. Might have been some downsides, but you know what was the biggest downside? Not showing up and giving your opponents the "she's running scared" narrative.
I'm not a fan of debates. Certainly, the 7-party ones leave an awful lot to be desired in terms of format and content. But they are here to stay now. And you cannot influence the narrative in your favour if you fail to show up. 0 -
Soldado then.. open goal etc.?TheScreamingEagles said:
Nope.Scrapheap_as_was said:
For eternity.TheScreamingEagles said:
But we agree Mark Reckless is a c*** who deserves a red hot poker up his arse.Scrapheap_as_was said:
I think my view on Ruth is now akin to tse and his Ozzie. Saved us from the trots.RobD said:
Spursy is going to feature on Sunday isn't it0 -
One of the best things about elections is the day after, when all the people who loudly told us what would happen, and were wrong, tell us why it happened.0
-
Apart from Warwick and Leamington, Central Ayrshire, Edinburgh SW, Oxford W and Abingdon, Bedford, Westmoreland and Lonsdale and Stroud, Lanark and Hamilton and Perth and North Perthshire, the remaining 23 are all Leave seats which would help BorisGarethoftheVale2 said:Conversely to get to a healthy majority of 50, the Cons need to gain 32 seats as follows:
Perth & North Perthshire 21
Dudley North 22
Newcastle-under-Lyme 30
Crewe & Nantwich 48
Canterbury 187
Barrow & Furness 209
Keighley 249
Lanark & Hamilton East 266
Ashfield 441
Bishop Auckland 502
Peterborough 607
Stroud 687
Westmorland & Lonsdale 777
Bedford 789
Oxford West & Abingdon 816
Ipswich 831
Stockton South 888
Colne Valley 978
Edinburgh South West 1,097
Warwick & Leamington 1,206
Central Ayrshire 1,267
Penistone & Stocksbridge 1,322
Argyll & Bute 1,328
Carshalton & Wallington 1,369
Lincoln 1,538
Portsmouth South 1,554
Eastbourne 1,609
Wrexham 1,832
Derby North 2,015
Wolverhampton South West 2,175
Wakefield 2,176
High Peak 2,3220 -
Correction: it was a vote against increased self-funding of social care. That's not the same as a vote against paying more.HYUFD said:
No it is not, this vote was not a rejection of Brexit outside of Remain areas, it was a vote for an easing of austerity and against paying more for social care.
0 -
I dunno. A second referendum on the deal ticket didn't help the Lib Dems that much. I actually think it could repel some of the core who helped retain a number of those seats that looked like they were going to fall to May's blue labour pitch.MyBurningEars said:
I was thinking about this earlier. Labour got about 25% of Leave voters, vs just over 50% of Remain voters, according (I think) to YouGov - apologies if I have misremembered the exact figures, I'm knackered.RobD said:I wonder, could the next election (if it is this year) be fought on leave/remain lines.. with Labour promising to basically annul the referendum result?
It's not plausible that that proportion of Leave voters were all voting Labour as Regrexiters, if the opinion polls about Regret are correct. A lot of Kippers went back to their natural home. These voters are not just a significant chunk of Labour's voter coalition (you don't want to abandon, say, half of them if you are fighting for a majority) but in lots of northern and Midlands constituencies I suspect they were the final line of defence that saw Labour home, in seats where the Tories had done the Conservative + UKIP > Labour arithmetic and thought they were in with a good chance.
It also seems unlikely that with such a high share of Remain voters already in the net (presumably this is largely based on demographics, especially age) that going All-Out Remain can reel many more in.
It would therefore surprise me if, in the event of a new election before Brexit is complete, Labour went down the "Revoke Article 50" line, and a bigger surprise if they took that approach and then won.
Running on a "second referendum on the final deal" ticket, though, seems to me more plausible.0 -
One manifesto was written by George Osborne, one was written by Ben Gummer, the now former MP for Ipswich.Casino_Royale said:
I found the manifesto extremely hard work.Philip_Thompson said:
A couple of ways I can think of.Sean_F said:
I think she was a rotten campaigner.midwinter said:
She lost seats and Cameron's majority to Jeremy Corbyn ffs . With no Ukip or lib dem challenge worth its salt. A slight difference I'd say.Sean_F said:There's not much difference between the appeal of May and Cameron, overall. One of them won 306 and 330 seats, the other won 318.
Osborne though, is about as popular as AIDS.
But, I think others would have struggled to do better.
People are sick of austerity. I don't see any easy way around this.
* Don't call an unnecessary election in the middle of said austerity with no light at the end of the tunnel.
* In your manifesto have at least one bright, shiny attractive proposition that enthuses people that you can point to when people point at the austerity and say "yes but it will be worth it because we will deliver this".
* Bother to turn up to the debates.
* Look like you care what voters think of you.
* Look like you're not just taking everyone for granted.
* Demonstrate that we are all in this together.
Points 2 and 3 are the main ones. I'm a politics geek and I can't think of anything in the Tory manifesto that was designed to create enthusiasm. The 2015 Tory manifesto had things like a seven day NHS etc - what did the 2017 manifesto have?
While running a Presidential campaign while running away from the Presidential debates was just pathetic. The days when we didn't have debates were history already. Nobody likes a coward, it was being a coward that cost Brown his respect after the election that never was - May managed to be a coward while actually having an election. That takes some doing.
There were a few nuggets in there, but they were buried within it and couched in vague language.
Even the presentation didn't help. Long reams of text, huge paragraphs, and very few pictures/diagrams or tables to break it up.
The GE2015 manifesto was far better.
Lolz.0 -
No. I'm comparing it to an (in)famous military campaign.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Soldado then.. open goal etc.?TheScreamingEagles said:
Nope.Scrapheap_as_was said:
For eternity.TheScreamingEagles said:
But we agree Mark Reckless is a c*** who deserves a red hot poker up his arse.Scrapheap_as_was said:
I think my view on Ruth is now akin to tse and his Ozzie. Saved us from the trots.RobD said:
Spursy is going to feature on Sunday isn't it0 -
A third interesting thing is that the SNP are vulnerable to further Unionist tactical voting and don't really have any safe seats left. Here are their remaining seats sorted by majority and with the challenger(s):
Constituency Target
North East Fife 2 - LD
Perth & North Perthshire 21 - Con
Glasgow South West 60 - Lab
Glasgow East 75 - Lab
Airdrie & Shotts 202 - Lab
Lanark & Hamilton East 266 - Con/Lab
Motherwell & Wishaw 318 - Lab
Inverclyde 384 - Lab
Dunfermline & West Fife 844 - Lab
Na h-Eileanan an Iar 1,007 - Lab
Glasgow North 1,060 - Lab
Edinburgh South West 1,097 - Con
Central Ayrshire 1,267 - Con
Argyll & Bute 1,328 - Con
Edinburgh North & Leith 1,625 - Lab/Con
Glasgow South 2,027 - Lab
Glasgow Central 2,267 - Lab
West Dunbartonshire 2,288 - Lab
Paisley & Renfrewshire South 2,536 - Lab
Glasgow North West 2,561 - Lab
Paisley & Renfrewshire North 2,613 - Lab/Con
Linlithgow & East Falkirk 2,919 - Lab/Con
Glenrothes 3,267 - Lab
Edinburgh East 3,425 - Lab
North Ayrshire & Arran 3,633 - Con/Lab
East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow 3,866 - Lab
Livingston 3,878 - Lab
Aberdeen North 4,139 - Lab
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East 4,264 - Lab
Falkirk 4,923 - Lab/Con
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey 4,924 - Con
Dundee West 5,322 - Lab
Ross, Skye & Lochaber 5,919 - Con/LD
Kilmarnock & Loudoun 6,269 - Lab/Con
Dundee East 6,645 - Con/Lab
0 -
It reminded me of an undergraduate assignment.Casino_Royale said:
I found the manifesto extremely hard work.Philip_Thompson said:
A couple of ways I can think of.Sean_F said:
I think she was a rotten campaigner.midwinter said:
She lost seats and Cameron's majority to Jeremy Corbyn ffs . With no Ukip or lib dem challenge worth its salt. A slight difference I'd say.Sean_F said:There's not much difference between the appeal of May and Cameron, overall. One of them won 306 and 330 seats, the other won 318.
Osborne though, is about as popular as AIDS.
But, I think others would have struggled to do better.
People are sick of austerity. I don't see any easy way around this.
* Don't call an unnecessary election in the middle of said austerity with no light at the end of the tunnel.
* In your manifesto have at least one bright, shiny attractive proposition that enthuses people that you can point to when people point at the austerity and say "yes but it will be worth it because we will deliver this".
* Bother to turn up to the debates.
* Look like you care what voters think of you.
* Look like you're not just taking everyone for granted.
* Demonstrate that we are all in this together.
Points 2 and 3 are the main ones. I'm a politics geek and I can't think of anything in the Tory manifesto that was designed to create enthusiasm. The 2015 Tory manifesto had things like a seven day NHS etc - what did the 2017 manifesto have?
While running a Presidential campaign while running away from the Presidential debates was just pathetic. The days when we didn't have debates were history already. Nobody likes a coward, it was being a coward that cost Brown his respect after the election that never was - May managed to be a coward while actually having an election. That takes some doing.
There were a few nuggets in there, but they were buried within it and couched in vague language.
Even the presentation didn't help. Long reams of text, huge paragraphs, and very few pictures/diagrams or tables to break it up.
The GE2015 manifesto was far better.0 -
There was simply no narrative or vision to the campaign - it was all process. 2015 was all Long Term Economic Plan means more money for NHS, schools, etc. It set austerity in its context.Casino_Royale said:
I found the manifesto extremely hard work.Philip_Thompson said:
A couple of ways I can think of.Sean_F said:
I think she was a rotten campaigner.midwinter said:
She lost seats and Cameron's majority to Jeremy Corbyn ffs . With no Ukip or lib dem challenge worth its salt. A slight difference I'd say.Sean_F said:There's not much difference between the appeal of May and Cameron, overall. One of them won 306 and 330 seats, the other won 318.
Osborne though, is about as popular as AIDS.
But, I think others would have struggled to do better.
People are sick of austerity. I don't see any easy way around this.
* Don't call an unnecessary election in the middle of said austerity with no light at the end of the tunnel.
* In your manifesto have at least one bright, shiny attractive proposition that enthuses people that you can point to when people point at the austerity and say "yes but it will be worth it because we will deliver this".
* Bother to turn up to the debates.
* Look like you care what voters think of you.
* Look like you're not just taking everyone for granted.
* Demonstrate that we are all in this together.
Points 2 and 3 are the main ones. I'm a politics geek and I can't think of anything in the Tory manifesto that was designed to create enthusiasm. The 2015 Tory manifesto had things like a seven day NHS etc - what did the 2017 manifesto have?
While running a Presidential campaign while running away from the Presidential debates was just pathetic. The days when we didn't have debates were history already. Nobody likes a coward, it was being a coward that cost Brown his respect after the election that never was - May managed to be a coward while actually having an election. That takes some doing.
There were a few nuggets in there, but they were buried within it and couched in vague language.
Even the presentation didn't help. Long reams of text, huge paragraphs, and very few pictures/diagrams or tables to break it up.
The GE2015 manifesto was far better.0 -
Parties that were opposed to Brexit won 70 seats, compared to 580.HYUFD said:
No it is not, this vote was not a rejection of Brexit outside of Remain areas, it was a vote for an easing of austerity and against paying more for social care.Scott_P said:Brexit is dead
@iankatz1000: .@nadhimzahawi concedes if PM said she did not have sufficient mandate for Brexit talks before election she can't have one now #newsnight
MP's can obviously renege, but they'd lose out0
