this vote was not a rejection of Brexit outside of Remain areas, it was a vote for an easing of austerity and against paying more for social care.
"Easing of austerity" is not compatible with Brexit.
Brexit is dead, not because the electorate voted against it per se, but because it cannot be delivered.
The votes in the HoC for all the dirty work are not there.
I don't necessarily disagree, but that opens up all sorts of unpleasant scenarios in the near future. "Leave means leave" is a very strong slogan, and it could easily be coupled with all sorts of other popularist stuff. Imagine a narrow Labour win next time which then has to own the inevitable recession. No one will be able to claim Brexit was responsible if we're still in, and the Tories will still not be trusted. Anything could happen.
Have all of the people who voted Labour to reduce the May majority, but hated Corbyn, suddenly become Corbynites because he won around the same number of seats as Brown?
@iankatz1000: .@nadhimzahawi concedes if PM said she did not have sufficient mandate for Brexit talks before election she can't have one now #newsnight
No it is not, this vote was not a rejection of Brexit outside of Remain areas, it was a vote for an easing of austerity and against paying more for social care.
Parties that were opposed to Brexit won 70 seats, compared to 580.
MP's can obviously renege, but they'd lose out
Exactly, the LD attempt to stop Brexit completely was halted in its tracks, though Labour may have halted hard Brexit
One for TSE: Amber Rudd-Michael Gove dream ticket. Michael Gove enobles Osborne.
Osborne comes back as the new Lord Mandelson??
People overestimate Gove on here. He's undoubtedly a clever man, but I do not think he is prime ministerial.
Rudd, I could get behind. But I fear her now minuscule majority will put paid to that at the moment.
I want Ruth to come to Westminster
I might be one of the people who overestimates Gove, so I say this with caveats, nobody is perfect and he is not naturally charismatic, but I think when he started at education his polices of more accadamys and free schools where a threat to the Trade unions who put a lot of effort into trying to discredit him and harm his reputation, if he became PM I think people might see him more closely and I think they might like it, a softly spoken but intelligent, pragmatic and compatinat man. then again it could all go wrong!!
I could also get behind Rudd if she was to go for the leadership.
And I also love Ruth, but I don't think its her time, not yet anyway.
One of the best things about elections is the day after, when all the people who loudly told us what would happen, and were wrong, tell us why it happened.
I knew I knew nothing so I bet less than 1k this time, concentrated in very safe Labour seats at short (but still too long) odds. E.g., Salford was not really 1/4. The overall return was better than getting an annual term deposit rate for 2 weeks' commitment, but nothing worth writing home about.
Seriously. I honestly mean this, I don't think May would have done that badly in them. Might have come across quite well as a dull and dutiful rock amidst the waves of squabbling lefties. Might have been some downsides, but you know what was the biggest downside? Not showing up and giving your opponents the "she's running scared" narrative.
I'm not a fan of debates. Certainly, the 7-party ones leave an awful lot to be desired in terms of format and content. But they are here to stay now. And you cannot influence the narrative in your favour if you fail to show up.
I think she could have got away with just debating Jezza.
Yes, nothing else will do. The point about the loopier formats are that they were invented ad hoc to cope with Dave's debate shyness.
Mind you, even her wins at PMQs were pretty toe-curling. If she had done a one on one with a fired up Jezza she might well have been monstered.
Is being monstered worse than not being there? Corbyn was monstered on Woman's Hour FFS
No it is not, this vote was not a rejection of Brexit outside of Remain areas, it was a vote for an easing of austerity and against paying more for social care.
Correction: it was a vote against increased self-funding of social care. That's not the same as a vote against paying more.
Well somebody has to pay for it, if not through National Insurance or your estate then through higher taxes (and no that cannot be only paid by people richer than you)
There's not much difference between the appeal of May and Cameron, overall. One of them won 306 and 330 seats, the other won 318.
Osborne though, is about as popular as AIDS.
She lost seats and Cameron's majority to Jeremy Corbyn ffs . With no Ukip or lib dem challenge worth its salt. A slight difference I'd say.
I think she was a rotten campaigner.
But, I think others would have struggled to do better.
People are sick of austerity. I don't see any easy way around this.
A couple of ways I can think of.
* Don't call an unnecessary election in the middle of said austerity with no light at the end of the tunnel. * In your manifesto have at least one bright, shiny attractive proposition that enthuses people that you can point to when people point at the austerity and say "yes but it will be worth it because we will deliver this". * Bother to turn up to the debates. * Look like you care what voters think of you. * Look like you're not just taking everyone for granted. * Demonstrate that we are all in this together.
Points 2 and 3 are the main ones. I'm a politics geek and I can't think of anything in the Tory manifesto that was designed to create enthusiasm. The 2015 Tory manifesto had things like a seven day NHS etc - what did the 2017 manifesto have?
While running a Presidential campaign while running away from the Presidential debates was just pathetic. The days when we didn't have debates were history already. Nobody likes a coward, it was being a coward that cost Brown his respect after the election that never was - May managed to be a coward while actually having an election. That takes some doing.
I found the manifesto extremely hard work.
There were a few nuggets in there, but they were buried within it and couched in vague language.
Even the presentation didn't help. Long reams of text, huge paragraphs, and very few pictures/diagrams or tables to break it up.
The GE2015 manifesto was far better.
It reminded me of an undergraduate assignment.
Yes, and that awful front cover that made it look like something that belonged in a law library...
When we look back on the most inept campaigns in political history, the Tory GE2017 campaign is going to rank pretty high... the only reason why some didn't pick up on it at the time was the (now proven false) belief that although it appeared sh*t, there was some 2015-esque genius behind it that none of us could see on the face of it but would actually vindicate the tactics in the end.
@iankatz1000: .@nadhimzahawi concedes if PM said she did not have sufficient mandate for Brexit talks before election she can't have one now #newsnight
No it is not, this vote was not a rejection of Brexit outside of Remain areas, it was a vote for an easing of austerity and against paying more for social care.
How do you know?
Corbyn in his own speech said it was a rejection of austerity, he did not mention it being a rejection of Brexit once
Seriously. I honestly mean this, I don't think May would have done that badly in them. Might have come across quite well as a dull and dutiful rock amidst the waves of squabbling lefties. Might have been some downsides, but you know what was the biggest downside? Not showing up and giving your opponents the "she's running scared" narrative.
I'm not a fan of debates. Certainly, the 7-party ones leave an awful lot to be desired in terms of format and content. But they are here to stay now. And you cannot influence the narrative in your favour if you fail to show up.
I think she could have got away with just debating Jezza.
Yes, nothing else will do. The point about the loopier formats are that they were invented ad hoc to cope with Dave's debate shyness.
Mind you, even her wins at PMQs were pretty toe-curling. If she had done a one on one with a fired up Jezza she might well have been monstered.
Is being monstered worse than not being there? Corbyn was monstered on Woman's Hour FFS
He wasn't, actually. I heard that in real time and thought the woman was being an arse and Jez did just fine. But yes on your broader point she should have been there whatever (or better still not been there because she wasn't PM in the first place).
While the LDs did well in their target seats, their low vote share now means they only have 20 target seats with majorities less than 10k (I took out the Western Isles due to tiny electorate):
North East Fife 2 Richmond Park 45 Ceredigion 104 St Ives 312 Sheffield, Hallam 2,175 Cheltenham 2,569 Leeds North West 4,224 North Devon 4,332 Cheadle 4,507 Lewes 5,508 Hazel Grove 5,514 Southport 5,880 St Albans 6,109 Wells 6,582 North Cornwall 7,200 Ross, Skye & Lochaber 7,438 Brecon & Radnorshire 8,038 Argyll & Bute 8,559 Montgomeryshire 9,285 Winchester 9,999
Back from Stratford Races where I had a fab time losing money with a smile on my face... some more reflections
As the Warwickshire Hounds ran down the straight I thought, well proper foxhunting is dead in the water again.. As is the 600 seat boundary review... surely? Not disappointed to see Stewart Jackson lose.. Great to see Andrew Bingham lose, has done nothing to support stopping wildlife crime in High Peak... Laura Kuenssberg's face on publication of the exit poll was the highlight of my night Sad to see Nick Clegg lose.. I looked at 3 seats for constituency betting on Lab after the You Gov poll, they were Camborne, Portsmouth S and Norwich N, but put nothing on. Portsmouth S would have been a nice pay out. I said 10 days ago on here that screaming IRA, IRA at Corbyn wasn't working. Very happy to be right.
The result is basically beautiful. The Tories now have to clean up their own mess, whilst in a death grip with the DUP. If I was Theresa I would invite Starmer and others to help negotiate Brexit in a cross party way. This needs to be non partisan now. There was NEVER a majority for the Brexit Theresa was enthusiastic about. The 48 have had their say now.
this vote was not a rejection of Brexit outside of Remain areas, it was a vote for an easing of austerity and against paying more for social care.
"Easing of austerity" is not compatible with Brexit.
Brexit is dead, not because the electorate voted against it per se, but because it cannot be delivered.
The votes in the HoC for all the dirty work are not there.
It is if you cut corporation tax etc to bring in more revenues and the Tories + DUP +Field, Hoey, Skinner etc on the Labour side provide a clear majority for Brexit in the new Parliament
A third interesting thing is that the SNP are vulnerable to further Unionist tactical voting and don't really have any safe seats left. Here are their remaining seats sorted by majority and with the challenger(s):
Constituency Target North East Fife 2 - LD Perth & North Perthshire 21 - Con Glasgow South West 60 - Lab Glasgow East 75 - Lab Airdrie & Shotts 202 - Lab Lanark & Hamilton East 266 - Con/Lab Motherwell & Wishaw 318 - Lab Inverclyde 384 - Lab Dunfermline & West Fife 844 - Lab Na h-Eileanan an Iar 1,007 - Lab Glasgow North 1,060 - Lab Edinburgh South West 1,097 - Con Central Ayrshire 1,267 - Con Argyll & Bute 1,328 - Con Edinburgh North & Leith 1,625 - Lab/Con Glasgow South 2,027 - Lab Glasgow Central 2,267 - Lab West Dunbartonshire 2,288 - Lab Paisley & Renfrewshire South 2,536 - Lab Glasgow North West 2,561 - Lab Paisley & Renfrewshire North 2,613 - Lab/Con Linlithgow & East Falkirk 2,919 - Lab/Con Glenrothes 3,267 - Lab Edinburgh East 3,425 - Lab North Ayrshire & Arran 3,633 - Con/Lab East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow 3,866 - Lab Livingston 3,878 - Lab Aberdeen North 4,139 - Lab Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East 4,264 - Lab Falkirk 4,923 - Lab/Con Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey 4,924 - Con Dundee West 5,322 - Lab Ross, Skye & Lochaber 5,919 - Con/LD Kilmarnock & Loudoun 6,269 - Lab/Con Dundee East 6,645 - Con/Lab
The 4 safest seats in Scotland are the 3 that the SNP did not hold at the start of the election. plus BRS (in percentage terms all 19%+) The lack of safe seats, especially now that we seem to see much bigger swings in individual seats than before, that help to make Scottish politics quite interesting.
The man on the Clapham omnibus doesn't know anything about the DUP. They are about to find out.
I doubt it - the Government isn't going to be proposing DUP inspired legislation.
It'll be 100% Brexit and nothing else other than ongoing day to day management.
They'll keep the DUP happy by giving NI some extra cash.
Corbyn wouldn't have been proposing Sinn Féin inspired legislation. But that was fair game, and rightly so, and the claims were made and the debate was had.
There's not much difference between the appeal of May and Cameron, overall. One of them won 306 and 330 seats, the other won 318.
Osborne though, is about as popular as AIDS.
She lost seats and Cameron's majority to Jeremy Corbyn ffs . With no Ukip or lib dem challenge worth its salt. A slight difference I'd say.
I think she was a rotten campaigner.
But, I think others would have struggled to do better.
People are sick of austerity. I don't see any easy way around this.
A couple of ways I can think of.
* Don't call an unnecessary election in the middle of said austerity with no light at the end of the tunnel. * In your manifesto have at least one bright, shiny attractive proposition that enthuses people that you can point to when people point at the austerity and say "yes but it will be worth it because we will deliver this". * Bother to turn up to the debates. * Look like you care what voters think of you. * Look like you're not just taking everyone for granted. * Demonstrate that we are all in this together.
Points 2 and 3 are the main ones. I'm a politics geek and I can't think of anything in the Tory manifesto that was designed to create enthusiasm. The 2015 Tory manifesto had things like a seven day NHS etc - what did the 2017 manifesto have?
While running a Presidential campaign while running away from the Presidential debates was just pathetic. The days when we didn't have debates were history already. Nobody likes a coward, it was being a coward that cost Brown his respect after the election that never was - May managed to be a coward while actually having an election. That takes some doing.
I found the manifesto extremely hard work.
There were a few nuggets in there, but they were buried within it and couched in vague language.
Even the presentation didn't help. Long reams of text, huge paragraphs, and very few pictures/diagrams or tables to break it up.
The GE2015 manifesto was far better.
One manifesto was written by George Osborne, one was written by Ben Gummer, the now former MP for Ipswich.
Lolz.
George Osborne with heavy input by David Cameron, and others.
There's not much difference between the appeal of May and Cameron, overall. One of them won 306 and 330 seats, the other won 318.
Osborne though, is about as popular as AIDS.
She lost seats and Cameron's majority to Jeremy Corbyn ffs . With no Ukip or lib dem challenge worth its salt. A slight difference I'd say.
I think she was a rotten campaigner.
But, I think others would have struggled to do better.
People are sick of austerity. I don't see any easy way around this.
A couple of ways I can think of.
* SNIP
Points 2 and 3 are the main ones. I'm a politics geek and I can't think of anything in the Tory manifesto that was designed to create enthusiasm. The 2015 Tory manifesto had things like a seven day NHS etc - what did the 2017 manifesto have?
While running a Presidential campaign while running away from the Presidential debates was just pathetic. The days when we didn't have debates were history already. Nobody likes a coward, it was being a coward that cost Brown his respect after the election that never was - May managed to be a coward while actually having an election. That takes some doing.
I found the manifesto extremely hard work.
There were a few nuggets in there, but they were buried within it and couched in vague language.
Even the presentation didn't help. Long reams of text, huge paragraphs, and very few pictures/diagrams or tables to break it up.
The GE2015 manifesto was far better.
It reminded me of an undergraduate assignment.
Yes, and that awful front cover that made it look like something that belonged in a law library...
When we look back on the most inept campaigns in political history, the Tory GE2017 campaign is going to rank pretty high... the only reason why some didn't pick up on it at the time was the (now proven false) belief that although it appeared sh*t, there was some 2015-esque genius behind it that none of us could see on the face of it but would actually vindicate the tactics in the end.
Whereas, in reality, it really was just sh*t.
Labour have an important, formal, full dress meeting to sign off their manifesto. A good idea.
One for TSE: Amber Rudd-Michael Gove dream ticket. Michael Gove enobles Osborne.
Osborne comes back as the new Lord Mandelson??
People overestimate Gove on here. He's undoubtedly a clever man, but I do not think he is prime ministerial.
Rudd, I could get behind. But I fear her now minuscule majority will put paid to that at the moment.
I want Ruth to come to Westminster
I might be one of the people who overestimates Gove, so I say this with caveats, nobody is perfect and he is not naturally charismatic, but I think when he started at education his polices of more accadamys and free schools where a threat to the Trade unions who put a lot of effort into trying to discredit him and harm his reputation, if he became PM I think people might see him more closely and I think they might like it, a softly spoken but intelligent, pragmatic and compatinat man. then again it could all go wrong!!
I could also get behind Rudd if she was to go for the leadership.
And I also love Ruth, but I don't think its her time, not yet anyway.
Corbyn could beat Gove, Rudd would likely do little better than May, Boris is the only one who would increase the Tory majority especially by motivating Leave voters who clearly did not turn out for Theresa in big enough numbers while he would also produce a far more populist manifesto than the PM did
All 3 should be in the Cabinet but a party leader and PM needs to be a winner and have charisma
One for TSE: Amber Rudd-Michael Gove dream ticket. Michael Gove enobles Osborne.
Osborne comes back as the new Lord Mandelson??
No, it will be Boris no contest. Woman on BBC London News says she did not vote for May but would have voted for Boris. Boris could get a majority of 50 I think against Corbyn. Could even be Davis leads during negotiations then Boris takes over post Brexit before election
I don't want Boris. Put me down as anyone but Boris.
He's an incompetent buffoon. Not up to the job of governing as PM.
What you really want is someone who's got the work ethic and eye-for-detail of May behind the scenes, but the campaigning verve, passion and oratory of Boris in public.
I dunno. A second referendum on the deal ticket didn't help the Lib Dems that much. I actually think it could repel some of the core who helped retain a number of those seats that looked like they were going to fall to May's blue labour pitch.
A very fair point. And with Labour already doing so well among the Remainers, why toss them any more red meat? My point was really just that a second referendum promise doesn't carry quite the same downside risks for their strategy as a promise to cancel Brexit immediately would. The latter would likely cost them the election even if, at a guess, Continuity Remain + Leave Regret > 55%, since it would concentrate leavers (and perhaps "respect the will of the people" remainers) with the Tories, while there are plenty of Tory Remainers who could never vote for a Corbyn-led Labour party. But some leavers who wouldn't accept Brexit being overturned immediately could stomach a second referendum, particularly if they reckoned they would win it. There are people in Labour who expressed openness to the idea of a second referendum on the finished deal and if the Labour party decides it wants to use an election to stop Brexit, that may be the mechanism that gives them the best chance. In that sense it seems more plausible to me that Stop Brexit Now.
But I still think it's unlikely. It's not even obvious to me that senior Labour leadership particularly wants to stop Brexit - many of them are eurosceptic, the kind of manifesto they want would certainly be easier to implement outside the EU, and if their primary concern is power (particularly, given ages, a last shot at power) then any stance that could blow up on them and cost them their majority would surely be avoided. Even a second referendum has the potential to be a net vote loser, would it be worth jeopardising their chance for it?
Another lesson for the Tories from the election: don't assume the public understand how destructive and self-defeating socialism is.
It will always look good on paper, possibly for the rest of time, and even if it's obviously crazy to you, you will always have to soberly and patiently explain why.
@MarqueeMark, I'm sure you'll be happy to join me in welcoming the participation of all those young people who found the time to put their playstations down and go out in the rain to do their civic duty.
Who can blame them for voting for Father Christmas when they found out he was real after all
You butthurt, hun? Not like pensioners haven't been cossetted and bribed for years is it?
this vote was not a rejection of Brexit outside of Remain areas, it was a vote for an easing of austerity and against paying more for social care.
"Easing of austerity" is not compatible with Brexit.
Brexit is dead, not because the electorate voted against it per se, but because it cannot be delivered.
The votes in the HoC for all the dirty work are not there.
It is if you cut corporation tax etc to bring in more revenues and the Tories + DUP +Field, Hoey, Skinner etc on the Labour side provide a clear majority for Brexit in the new Parliament
The man on the Clapham omnibus doesn't know anything about the DUP. They are about to find out.
I doubt it - the Government isn't going to be proposing DUP inspired legislation.
It'll be 100% Brexit and nothing else other than ongoing day to day management.
They'll keep the DUP happy by giving NI some extra cash.
Indeed, it is confidence & supply. Some key return points are:
-The Past, something many voters, not just Conservative agree on that if the past is going to be let go of, its let go of, not one side doing victim status and getting inquiries against state employees.
-Maintaining a reasonable cross border Ireland/Northern Ireland trade situation and some enhanced support for the NI region to deal with the loss of European cash.
-Triggering the next Assembly elections but otherwise a hands off approach to getting Stormont back on track. The DUP love the devolved power, very very comfortable up on the hill and have a fair set of technocrats and wonks. Sinn Fein have struggled more with that day to day operation.
-Couple of pet projects needing a bit of extra cash. This plays well and is small fry money in a UK context
In reality, some of these are fairly common Conservative and DUP agreement points already but this just avoids backsliding.
A third interesting thing is that the SNP are vulnerable to further Unionist tactical voting and don't really have any safe seats left. Here are their remaining seats sorted by majority and with the challenger(s):
Constituency Target North East Fife 2 - LD Perth & North Perthshire 21 - Con Glasgow South West 60 - Lab Glasgow East 75 - Lab Airdrie & Shotts 202 - Lab Lanark & Hamilton East 266 - Con/Lab Motherwell & Wishaw 318 - Lab Inverclyde 384 - Lab Dunfermline & West Fife 844 - Lab Na h-Eileanan an Iar 1,007 - Lab Glasgow North 1,060 - Lab Edinburgh South West 1,097 - Con Central Ayrshire 1,267 - Con Argyll & Bute 1,328 - Con Edinburgh North & Leith 1,625 - Lab/Con Glasgow South 2,027 - Lab Glasgow Central 2,267 - Lab West Dunbartonshire 2,288 - Lab Paisley & Renfrewshire South 2,536 - Lab Glasgow North West 2,561 - Lab Paisley & Renfrewshire North 2,613 - Lab/Con Linlithgow & East Falkirk 2,919 - Lab/Con Glenrothes 3,267 - Lab Edinburgh East 3,425 - Lab North Ayrshire & Arran 3,633 - Con/Lab East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow 3,866 - Lab Livingston 3,878 - Lab Aberdeen North 4,139 - Lab Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East 4,264 - Lab Falkirk 4,923 - Lab/Con Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey 4,924 - Con Dundee West 5,322 - Lab Ross, Skye & Lochaber 5,919 - Con/LD Kilmarnock & Loudoun 6,269 - Lab/Con Dundee East 6,645 - Con/Lab
Yup, 12 Scottish seats had a winning margin of less than 1%, 8 of them were SNP.
One for TSE: Amber Rudd-Michael Gove dream ticket. Michael Gove enobles Osborne.
Osborne comes back as the new Lord Mandelson??
People overestimate Gove on here. He's undoubtedly a clever man, but I do not think he is prime ministerial.
Rudd, I could get behind. But I fear her now minuscule majority will put paid to that at the moment.
I want Ruth to come to Westminster
I might be one of the people who overestimates Gove, so I say this with caveats, nobody is perfect and he is not naturally charismatic, but I think when he started at education his polices of more accadamys and free schools where a threat to the Trade unions who put a lot of effort into trying to discredit him and harm his reputation, if he became PM I think people might see him more closely and I think they might like it, a softly spoken but intelligent, pragmatic and compatinat man. then again it could all go wrong!!
I could also get behind Rudd if she was to go for the leadership.
And I also love Ruth, but I don't think its her time, not yet anyway.
I feel really sorry for Michael Gove at the moment. With the Tory Party in such disarray, he doesn't know who to stab in the back.
One for TSE: Amber Rudd-Michael Gove dream ticket. Michael Gove enobles Osborne.
Osborne comes back as the new Lord Mandelson??
No, it will be Boris no contest. Woman on BBC London News says she did not vote for May but would have voted for Boris. Boris could get a majority of 50 I think against Corbyn. Could even be Davis leads during negotiations then Boris takes over post Brexit before election
I don't want Boris. Put me down as anyone but Boris.
He's an incompetent buffoon. Not up to the job of governing as PM.
What you really want is someone who's got the work ethic and eye-for-detail of May behind the scenes, but the campaigning verve, passion and oratory of Boris in public.
Might I suggest this is why Ruth does well? She's a clever lady, smart tactician, and also a very effective campaigner who uses comedy to good effect.
Another lesson for the Tories from the election: don't assume the public understand how destructive and self-defeating socialism is.
It will always look good on paper, possibly for the rest of time, and even if it's obviously crazy to you, you will always have to soberly and patiently explain why.
The Labour manifesto was fairly moderate. Many of our western peers have nationalised rail, mail, water and energy - we prefer to nationalise ours to foreign powers!
Labour did well with the Remain vote in part because they appealed to the younger voters. The fact that this segment of the electorate voted in its majority for Remain is coincidental. These voters were voting Labour for other reasons than the Brexit issue.
I dunno. A second referendum on the deal ticket didn't help the Lib Dems that much. I actually think it could repel some of the core who helped retain a number of those seats that looked like they were going to fall to May's blue labour pitch.
A very fair point. And with Labour already doing so well among the Remainers, why toss them any more red meat? My point was really just that a second referendum promise doesn't carry quite the same downside risks for their strategy as a promise to cancel Brexit immediately would. The latter would likely cost them the election even if, at a guess, Continuity Remain + Leave Regret > 55%, since it would concentrate leavers (and perhaps "respect the will of the people" remainers) with the Tories, while there are plenty of Tory Remainers who could never vote for a Corbyn-led Labour party. But some leavers who wouldn't accept Brexit being overturned immediately could stomach a second referendum, particularly if they reckoned they would win it. There are people in Labour who expressed openness to the idea of a second referendum on the finished deal and if the Labour party decides it wants to use an election to stop Brexit, that may be the mechanism that gives them the best chance. In that sense it seems more plausible to me that Stop Brexit Now.
But I still think it's unlikely. It's not even obvious to me that senior Labour leadership particularly wants to stop Brexit - many of them are eurosceptic, the kind of manifesto they want would certainly be easier to implement outside the EU, and if their primary concern is power (particularly, given ages, a last shot at power) then any stance that could blow up on them and cost them their majority would surely be avoided. Even a second referendum has the potential to be a net vote loser, would it be worth jeopardising their chance for it?
Just go into the single market and have done. We can always rejoin the EU years in the future.
@MarqueeMark, I'm sure you'll be happy to join me in welcoming the participation of all those young people who found the time to put their playstations down and go out in the rain to do their civic duty.
Yeah, young people, glued to their little electronic screens 24/7. Not at all like us PBers.
One for TSE: Amber Rudd-Michael Gove dream ticket. Michael Gove enobles Osborne.
Osborne comes back as the new Lord Mandelson??
No, it will be Boris no contest. Woman on BBC London News says she did not vote for May but would have voted for Boris. Boris could get a majority of 50 I think against Corbyn. Could even be Davis leads during negotiations then Boris takes over post Brexit before election
I don't want Boris. Put me down as anyone but Boris.
He's an incompetent buffoon. Not up to the job of governing as PM.
What you really want is someone who's got the work ethic and eye-for-detail of May behind the scenes, but the campaigning verve, passion and oratory of Boris in public.
Boris could quite easily put off as many people as he attracts. I know a lot of Tory-leaning voters who react with horror to the mention of his name..
Another lesson for the Tories from the election: don't assume the public understand how destructive and self-defeating socialism is.
It will always look good on paper, possibly for the rest of time, and even if it's obviously crazy to you, you will always have to soberly and patiently explain why.
Doesn't sound like you've learnt much. Casino: 'The electorate are ignorant'
Isn't that what you and others vilified remoaners for saying this time last year?
One for TSE: Amber Rudd-Michael Gove dream ticket. Michael Gove enobles Osborne.
Osborne comes back as the new Lord Mandelson??
No, it will be Boris no contest. Woman on BBC London News says she did not vote for May but would have voted for Boris. Boris could get a majority of 50 I think against Corbyn. Could even be Davis leads during negotiations then Boris takes over post Brexit before election
I don't want Boris. Put me down as anyone but Boris.
He's an incompetent buffoon. Not up to the job of governing as PM.
What you really want is someone who's got the work ethic and eye-for-detail of May behind the scenes, but the campaigning verve, passion and oratory of Boris in public.
Eye for detail? This is the same woman that let the NI shambles and Dementia Tax through under her watch.
Have all of the people who voted Labour to reduce the May majority, but hated Corbyn, suddenly become Corbynites because he won around the same number of seats as Brown?
Yup. All the Labour objections to Corbyn have gone away now he's won a few seats.
this vote was not a rejection of Brexit outside of Remain areas, it was a vote for an easing of austerity and against paying more for social care.
"Easing of austerity" is not compatible with Brexit.
Brexit is dead, not because the electorate voted against it per se, but because it cannot be delivered.
The votes in the HoC for all the dirty work are not there.
It is if you cut corporation tax etc to bring in more revenues and the Tories + DUP +Field, Hoey, Skinner etc on the Labour side provide a clear majority for Brexit in the new Parliament
You are starting to sound a tad desperate!
Even Corbyn backs Brexit and some free movement controls, it was the LDs who wanted to stop Brexit completely and they failed abysmally
Another lesson for the Tories from the election: don't assume the public understand how destructive and self-defeating socialism is.
It will always look good on paper, possibly for the rest of time, and even if it's obviously crazy to you, you will always have to soberly and patiently explain why.
Sadly you are right, memory of the USSR and East Europe are fading. Which is why there should of been a lot more made of Corbyns Support of Venezuela and misery it has distended in to now.
Another lesson for the Tories from the election: don't assume the public understand how destructive and self-defeating socialism is.
It will always look good on paper, possibly for the rest of time, and even if it's obviously crazy to you, you will always have to soberly and patiently explain why.
The Labour manifesto was fairly moderate. Many of our western peers have nationalised rail, mail, water and energy - we prefer to nationalise ours to foreign powers!
Yes, the big issue with Labour's manifesto was funding sources, as opposed to it being 'extreme.' My big concern was more particular politics of Corbyn and McDonnell, although I had significant concerns about that LVT (which know I more about it + it not applying to residential property I don't anymore).
Another lesson for the Tories from the election: don't assume the public understand how destructive and self-defeating socialism is.
It will always look good on paper, possibly for the rest of time, and even if it's obviously crazy to you, you will always have to soberly and patiently explain why.
I think the odds of a PM Corbyn, President Sanders and President Melenchon by the end of 2022 have just fallen sharply since last night, of course if we get tooth and claw socialism for a few years neoliberalism may start to find itself back in fashion again as a reaction to it
As it is, no other parties than the Tories can form a government, but they have no majority and are vulnerable to being overthrown by a couple of adverse by-elections. Theresa May's authority has also been shot to pieces, but at a time when the country can't really afford two months of leadership campaigning, meaning she remains in place at the head of a zombie government which slowly leaks authority and credibility.
What a total clusterfuck. Emigration to Canada or Australia increasingly looks like a good idea.
Politics in Australia is just as shambolic. Changed PM so many times in recent years their paramedics no longer ask people with suspected concussion who the PM is!
Brexit of some form will happen. But it will be soft. May can afford to push a soft brexit through parliament because enough Labour MPs will back it to cancel out her headbangers. A soft brexit with off the shelf norway EEA is all that is viable now, that means FoM stays, with at best a fig leaf to cover it.
I can't see May getting the chop anytime soon - who would want to replace her as head of a minority govt relying on DUP, without their own mandate. They would be pressured to go back to the country for their own mandate or be labelled as chickens, especially as they will all be on record defending May's decision to call an election. If she decides to leave of her own accord, then tories will want a campaign winner because they will know a new election will be needed. So it will be Boris. Only tory there with proven experience as an election winner.
Another lesson for the Tories from the election: don't assume the public understand how destructive and self-defeating socialism is.
It will always look good on paper, possibly for the rest of time, and even if it's obviously crazy to you, you will always have to soberly and patiently explain why.
Sadly you are right, memory of the USSR and East Europe are fading. Which is why there should of been a lot more made of Corbyns Support of Venezuela and misery it has distended in to now.
Maybe, just maybe, there's another way that doesn't involve those that have the most growing ever wealthier at the expense of the rest.
Corbyn's Labour Party are offering an alternative. The rest are fiddling around the edges.
One for TSE: Amber Rudd-Michael Gove dream ticket. Michael Gove enobles Osborne.
Osborne comes back as the new Lord Mandelson??
No, it will be Boris no contest. Woman on BBC London News says she did not vote for May but would have voted for Boris. Boris could get a majority of 50 I think against Corbyn. Could even be Davis leads during negotiations then Boris takes over post Brexit before election
I don't want Boris. Put me down as anyone but Boris.
He's an incompetent buffoon. Not up to the job of governing as PM.
What you really want is someone who's got the work ethic and eye-for-detail of May behind the scenes, but the campaigning verve, passion and oratory of Boris in public.
Eye for detail? This is the same woman that let the NI shambles and Dementia Tax through under her watch.
Well, there is that. But she does her administrative homework and works hard.
Boris doesn't, and muddles through. Plus he's a gaffe a minute.
Another lesson for the Tories from the election: don't assume the public understand how destructive and self-defeating socialism is.
It will always look good on paper, possibly for the rest of time, and even if it's obviously crazy to you, you will always have to soberly and patiently explain why.
Sadly you are right, memory of the USSR and East Europe are fading. Which is why there should of been a lot more made of Corbyns Support of Venezuela and misery it has distended in to now.
Yes, and likewise the 1970s. There are huge swathes of voters who have only ever known Thatcherism, New Labour and austerity.
Depressingly, I wonder if this is all more cyclical than we have traditionally thought. Maybe socialism wasn't defeated forever, maybe it was just banished for a few decades...
this vote was not a rejection of Brexit outside of Remain areas, it was a vote for an easing of austerity and against paying more for social care.
"Easing of austerity" is not compatible with Brexit.
Brexit is dead, not because the electorate voted against it per se, but because it cannot be delivered.
The votes in the HoC for all the dirty work are not there.
It is if you cut corporation tax etc to bring in more revenues
Is this the magic money tree?
NO that is a demonstration of the Lafer curve at work, and has been observed in so many cases it is astonishing that it has to be explained each time.
If we're to the left of the curve's peak, we can raise more money by raising tax. If we're to the right, we can raise money by lowering it. But the Tories never said "we can raise money by lowering tax". They ridiculed the idea of raising extra tax revenue as "magic money tree". Which means they believe we're exactly at the very peak of the Laffer curve.
Brexit of some form will happen. But it will be soft. May can afford to push a soft brexit through parliament because enough Labour MPs will back it to cancel out her headbangers. A soft brexit with off the shelf norway EEA is all that is viable now, that means FoM stays, with at best a fig leaf to cover it.
I can't see May getting the chop anytime soon - who would want to replace her as head of a minority govt relying on DUP, without their own mandate. They would be pressured to go back to the country for their own mandate or be labelled as chickens, especially as they will all be on record defending May's decision to call an election. If she decides to leave of her own accord, then tories will want a campaign winner because they will know a new election will be needed. So it will be Boris. Only tory there with proven experience as an election winner.
May can survive until an election, there is no way the Tories will now let May lead them in a general election campaign in preference to Boris
Another lesson for the Tories from the election: don't assume the public understand how destructive and self-defeating socialism is.
It will always look good on paper, possibly for the rest of time, and even if it's obviously crazy to you, you will always have to soberly and patiently explain why.
Doesn't sound like you've learnt much. Casino: 'The electorate are ignorant'
Isn't that what you and others vilified remoaners for saying this time last year?
Where have I said the electorate are ignorant?
If anything I'm arguing the Tories are complacent and arrogant for not bothering to make the case against socialism themselves, believing it made itself.
Maybe one of the biggest mistakes by the Tories was to have such a long campaign. If you've decided on a snap election because the polls look good, surely the smart thing to do would be to have as short a campaign as possible so that time is limited if the polls do start to move against you.
Conversely, none of the issues about Jeremy Corbyn have gone away.
He's not the messiah. And a long period in opposition with him fully under the spotlight - having become so popular during the campaign - might not necessarily be to his benefit.
If I were the Tories, I'd be undermining his economics and credibility for the next few years relentlessly, whilst positively engagingly with young voters-middle aged with an offer of their own based on economic reality.
This could be the best thing that could have happened - if the Corbyn surge had not happened now and been defeated by a whisker, he could have made his move in 2020 and won. As it is we now know what we are faced with. He is a brilliant campaigner but he's still as mad as a box of frogs and his policies are worse, and can be attacked. He can't do too many stadium rallies outside of election campaigns, he is 68 and while he can ensure that his successor shares his politics, it's less easy to hand on the charisma.
I never thought I'd hear Jeremy described as having charisma. It's amazing what a blue suit and tie will do.
For what it's worth I don't think it has anything to do with charisma just that the zeitgeist has moved to someting less reactionary and stale than we've been used to. Banning the bomb and feeding the poor has always had more of an allure for the young and idealistic than 'Brexit means Brexit'
this vote was not a rejection of Brexit outside of Remain areas, it was a vote for an easing of austerity and against paying more for social care.
"Easing of austerity" is not compatible with Brexit.
Brexit is dead, not because the electorate voted against it per se, but because it cannot be delivered.
The votes in the HoC for all the dirty work are not there.
It is if you cut corporation tax etc to bring in more revenues and the Tories + DUP +Field, Hoey, Skinner etc on the Labour side provide a clear majority for Brexit in the new Parliament
You are starting to sound a tad desperate!
Even Corbyn backs Brexit and some free movement controls, it was the LDs who wanted to stop Brexit completely and they failed abysmally
One for TSE: Amber Rudd-Michael Gove dream ticket. Michael Gove enobles Osborne.
Osborne comes back as the new Lord Mandelson??
No, it will be Boris no contest. Woman on BBC London News says she did not vote for May but would have voted for Boris. Boris could get a majority of 50 I think against Corbyn. Could even be Davis leads during negotiations then Boris takes over post Brexit before election
I don't want Boris. Put me down as anyone but Boris.
He's an incompetent buffoon. Not up to the job of governing as PM.
What you really want is someone who's got the work ethic and eye-for-detail of May behind the scenes, but the campaigning verve, passion and oratory of Boris in public.
Might I suggest this is why Ruth does well? She's a clever lady, smart tactician, and also a very effective campaigner who uses comedy to good effect.
She is basically Boris with less buffoonery.
Every Tory I've spoken to today from every wing of the party has mentioned her name, unprompted.
this vote was not a rejection of Brexit outside of Remain areas, it was a vote for an easing of austerity and against paying more for social care.
"Easing of austerity" is not compatible with Brexit.
Brexit is dead, not because the electorate voted against it per se, but because it cannot be delivered.
The votes in the HoC for all the dirty work are not there.
It is if you cut corporation tax etc to bring in more revenues
Is this the magic money tree?
NO that is a demonstration of the Lafer curve at work, and has been observed in so many cases it is astonishing that it has to be explained each time.
If we're to the left of the curve's peak, we can raise more money by raising tax. If we're to the right, we can raise money by lowering it. But the Tories never said "we can raise money by lowering tax". They ridiculed the idea of raising extra tax revenue as "magic money tree". Which means they believe we're exactly at the very peak of the Laffer curve.
No. It means they don't want to piss off their wealthy supporters.
But the Tories never said "we can raise money by lowering tax". They ridiculed the idea of raising extra tax revenue as "magic money tree". Which means they believe we're exactly at the very peak of the Laffer curve.
No, they said "we lowered tax and raised money", which implies we are on the right hand side of the curve.
They wanted to lower the rate further to raise more money
One for TSE: Amber Rudd-Michael Gove dream ticket. Michael Gove enobles Osborne.
Osborne comes back as the new Lord Mandelson??
No, it will be Boris no contest. Woman on BBC London News says she did not vote for May but would have voted for Boris. Boris could get a majority of 50 I think against Corbyn. Could even be Davis leads during negotiations then Boris takes over post Brexit before election
I don't want Boris. Put me down as anyone but Boris.
He's an incompetent buffoon. Not up to the job of governing as PM.
What you really want is someone who's got the work ethic and eye-for-detail of May behind the scenes, but the campaigning verve, passion and oratory of Boris in public.
Boris could quite easily put off as many people as he attracts. I know a lot of Tory-leaning voters who react with horror to the mention of his name..
So basically the Cons are looking for a state-educated Cameron, male or female. Anyone fit the role?
this vote was not a rejection of Brexit outside of Remain areas, it was a vote for an easing of austerity and against paying more for social care.
"Easing of austerity" is not compatible with Brexit.
Brexit is dead, not because the electorate voted against it per se, but because it cannot be delivered.
The votes in the HoC for all the dirty work are not there.
It is if you cut corporation tax etc to bring in more revenues
Is this the magic money tree?
NO that is a demonstration of the Lafer curve at work, and has been observed in so many cases it is astonishing that it has to be explained each time.
If we're to the left of the curve's peak, we can raise more money by raising tax. If we're to the right, we can raise money by lowering it. But the Tories never said "we can raise money by lowering tax". They ridiculed the idea of raising extra tax revenue as "magic money tree". Which means they believe we're exactly at the very peak of the Laffer curve.
No they ridiculed an almost infinite amount of spending being possible. If there were a limited number of commitments then that could have been affordable with a limited number of tax rises but Corbyn never saw a spending option he didn't back or a cut he didn't oppose (except to the military where there should be more cuts).
One for TSE: Amber Rudd-Michael Gove dream ticket. Michael Gove enobles Osborne.
Osborne comes back as the new Lord Mandelson??
No, it will be Boris no contest. Woman on BBC London News says she did not vote for May but would have voted for Boris. Boris could get a majority of 50 I think against Corbyn. Could even be Davis leads during negotiations then Boris takes over post Brexit before election
I don't want Boris. Put me down as anyone but Boris.
He's an incompetent buffoon. Not up to the job of governing as PM.
What you really want is someone who's got the work ethic and eye-for-detail of May behind the scenes, but the campaigning verve, passion and oratory of Boris in public.
Might I suggest this is why Ruth does well? She's a clever lady, smart tactician, and also a very effective campaigner who uses comedy to good effect.
She is basically Boris with less buffoonery.
Every Tory I've spoken to today from every wing of the party has mentioned her name, unprompted.
Every. Single. One.
We need Davidson to continue fighting the SNP, Boris to fight Labour
Another lesson for the Tories from the election: don't assume the public understand how destructive and self-defeating socialism is.
It will always look good on paper, possibly for the rest of time, and even if it's obviously crazy to you, you will always have to soberly and patiently explain why.
I think the odds of a PM Corbyn, President Sanders and President Melenchon by the end of 2022 have just fallen sharply since last night, of course if we get tooth and claw socialism for a few years neoliberalism may start to find itself back in fashion again as a reaction to it
We shall see. The word neoliberal is a turn off though.
Have all of the people who voted Labour to reduce the May majority, but hated Corbyn, suddenly become Corbynites because he won around the same number of seats as Brown?
Yup. All the Labour objections to Corbyn have gone away now he's won a few seats.
Principled lot.
Have you been to bed yet? You've been ratty all day. Get some sleep man!
One for TSE: Amber Rudd-Michael Gove dream ticket. Michael Gove enobles Osborne.
Osborne comes back as the new Lord Mandelson??
No, it will be Boris no contest. Woman on BBC London News says she did not vote for May but would have voted for Boris. Boris could get a majority of 50 I think against Corbyn. Could even be Davis leads during negotiations then Boris takes over post Brexit before election
I don't want Boris. Put me down as anyone but Boris.
He's an incompetent buffoon. Not up to the job of governing as PM.
What you really want is someone who's got the work ethic and eye-for-detail of May behind the scenes, but the campaigning verve, passion and oratory of Boris in public.
Might I suggest this is why Ruth does well? She's a clever lady, smart tactician, and also a very effective campaigner who uses comedy to good effect.
She is basically Boris with less buffoonery.
Every Tory I've spoken to today from every wing of the party has mentioned her name, unprompted.
Every. Single. One.
We need Davidson to continue fighting the SNP, Boris to fight Labour
What better way to fight the SNP that for a Scottish MP to become UK PM?
this vote was not a rejection of Brexit outside of Remain areas, it was a vote for an easing of austerity and against paying more for social care.
"Easing of austerity" is not compatible with Brexit.
Brexit is dead, not because the electorate voted against it per se, but because it cannot be delivered.
The votes in the HoC for all the dirty work are not there.
It is if you cut corporation tax etc to bring in more revenues and the Tories + DUP +Field, Hoey, Skinner etc on the Labour side provide a clear majority for Brexit in the new Parliament
You are starting to sound a tad desperate!
Even Corbyn backs Brexit and some free movement controls, it was the LDs who wanted to stop Brexit completely and they failed abysmally
Failed insofar as they increased their seats?
The LDs won 12 seats out of 600, hardly a wave of Leave regret was it!
Brexit of some form will happen. But it will be soft. May can afford to push a soft brexit through parliament because enough Labour MPs will back it to cancel out her headbangers. A soft brexit with off the shelf norway EEA is all that is viable now, that means FoM stays, with at best a fig leaf to cover it.
I can't see May getting the chop anytime soon - who would want to replace her as head of a minority govt relying on DUP, without their own mandate. They would be pressured to go back to the country for their own mandate or be labelled as chickens, especially as they will all be on record defending May's decision to call an election. If she decides to leave of her own accord, then tories will want a campaign winner because they will know a new election will be needed. So it will be Boris. Only tory there with proven experience as an election winner.
May can survive until an election, there is no way the Tories will now let May lead them in a general election campaign in preference to Boris
Probably, but if she is there too long she will ruin the tory chances in the following election - zombie government will be the narrative. Weak and wobbly, unable to pass any laws, lacking real authority, a government that is past its expiration date. The longer May is there the more the whole tory party is contaminated.
Brexit of some form will happen. But it will be soft. May can afford to push a soft brexit through parliament because enough Labour MPs will back it to cancel out her headbangers. A soft brexit with off the shelf norway EEA is all that is viable now, that means FoM stays, with at best a fig leaf to cover it.
Her problem isn't just getting it through the Commons, it's keeping her job while she negotiates. It only takes 15% of Tory MPs to kick of a challenge, and if she was challenged she'd lose.
Ruth Davidson is moderate, personable, reasonable, down to earth and pragmatic. All the things Theresa May isn't and all the things the Conservative Party and the country need in a leader right now.
Theresa May is being propped up by a party which associated with actual gun-runners, after a campaign where she tried to use that very association against her opponent. Hope the DUP snowflakes aren't going to be surprised that their safe space is being penetrated by appalled British eyes.
Whats your problem with democractic votes?
Only when it suits you?
On the same basis, do you feel that the Sinn Fein MPs should be allowed to take their seats without the oath of allegiance, since the people democratically elected them in the full knowledge that they don't feel loyalty to the Queen?
I get that although the DUP has a dodgy past, it's worked to live it down, like others after the Troubles. But in practice the probability that they'll say and do things that the Government will find very embarrassing is high. And it may directly get in the way of a Brexit deal, since they have strong views on the issue that rule out some possible compromises.
Brexit of some form will happen. But it will be soft. May can afford to push a soft brexit through parliament because enough Labour MPs will back it to cancel out her headbangers. A soft brexit with off the shelf norway EEA is all that is viable now, that means FoM stays, with at best a fig leaf to cover it.
I can't see May getting the chop anytime soon - who would want to replace her as head of a minority govt relying on DUP, without their own mandate. They would be pressured to go back to the country for their own mandate or be labelled as chickens, especially as they will all be on record defending May's decision to call an election. If she decides to leave of her own accord, then tories will want a campaign winner because they will know a new election will be needed. So it will be Boris. Only tory there with proven experience as an election winner.
The trouble is, they just don't have the numbers. Con plus DUP confidence and supply is one of the weakest governments in British political history. It would fall within a year.
One for TSE: Amber Rudd-Michael Gove dream ticket. Michael Gove enobles Osborne.
Osborne comes back as the new Lord Mandelson??
No, it will be Boris no contest. Woman on BBC London News says she did not vote for May but would have voted for Boris. Boris could get a majority of 50 I think against Corbyn. Could even be Davis leads during negotiations then Boris takes over post Brexit before election
I don't want Boris. Put me down as anyone but Boris.
He's an incompetent buffoon. Not up to the job of governing as PM.
What you really want is someone who's got the work ethic and eye-for-detail of May behind the scenes, but the campaigning verve, passion and oratory of Boris in public.
Might I suggest this is why Ruth does well? She's a clever lady, smart tactician, and also a very effective campaigner who uses comedy to good effect.
She is basically Boris with less buffoonery.
Every Tory I've spoken to today from every wing of the party has mentioned her name, unprompted.
Every. Single. One.
We need Davidson to continue fighting the SNP, Boris to fight Labour
One wonders when the time will ever be right for Ms Davidson to come to Westminster though. She's actually in an awful predicament.
All political careers end in failure - just ask TMay and Cameron. The risk for Ruth is that the shine will come off some day, and when (not if, when) it does, when the music stops, will she have held on too long in Scotland and never took the opportunity that presented itself to her?
Ruth Davidson, is moderate, personable, reasonable, down to earth and pragmatic. All the things Theresa May isn't and all the things the Conservative Party and the country need in a leader right now.
Agree. However, she didn't run for the role of PM.
Theresa May is being propped up by a party which associated with actual gun-runners, after a campaign where she tried to use that very association against her opponent. Hope the DUP snowflakes aren't going to be surprised that their safe space is being penetrated by appalled British eyes.
Whats your problem with democractic votes?
Only when it suits you?
On the same basis, do you feel that the Sinn Fein MPs should be allowed to take their seats without the oath of allegiance, since the people democratically elected them in the full knowledge that they don't feel loyalty to the Queen?
I get that although the DUP has a dodgy past, it's worked to live it down, like others after the Troubles. But in practice the probability that they'll say and do things that the Government will find very embarrassing is high. And it may directly get in the way of a Brexit deal, since they have strong views on the issue that rule out some possible compromises.
Who knows, perhaps the constituents voted for them because of their abstentionist policy?
One for TSE: Amber Rudd-Michael Gove dream ticket. Michael Gove enobles Osborne.
Osborne comes back as the new Lord Mandelson??
No, it will be Boris no contest. Woman on BBC London News says she did not vote for May but would have voted for Boris. Boris could get a majority of 50 I think against Corbyn. Could even be Davis leads during negotiations then Boris takes over post Brexit before election
I don't want Boris. Put me down as anyone but Boris.
He's an incompetent buffoon. Not up to the job of governing as PM.
What you really want is someone who's got the work ethic and eye-for-detail of May behind the scenes, but the campaigning verve, passion and oratory of Boris in public.
Might I suggest this is why Ruth does well? She's a clever lady, smart tactician, and also a very effective campaigner who uses comedy to good effect.
She is basically Boris with less buffoonery.
Every Tory I've spoken to today from every wing of the party has mentioned her name, unprompted.
Every. Single. One.
To state the bleedin' obvious, 12 gains. TWELVE.
She formed a tank-riding, dog-walking Scottish firewall against PM Corbyn. Of course they're singing her praises.
Today. But she apparently is happy to keep free movement of people in return for single market access. That is toxic for many Tories south of the border.
Ruth Davidson, is moderate, personable, reasonable, down to earth and pragmatic. All the things Theresa May isn't and all the things the Conservative Party and the country need in a leader right now.
Agree. However, she didn't run for the role of PM.
Think the Tories will try and get her into the Commons in the future.
One for TSE: Amber Rudd-Michael Gove dream ticket. Michael Gove enobles Osborne.
Osborne comes back as the new Lord Mandelson??
No, it will be Boris no contest. Woman on BBC London News says she did not vote for May but would have voted for Boris. Boris could get a majority of 50 I think against Corbyn. Could even be Davis leads during negotiations then Boris takes over post Brexit before election
I don't want Boris. Put me down as anyone but Boris.
He's an incompetent buffoon. Not up to the job of governing as PM.
What you really want is someone who's got the work ethic and eye-for-detail of May behind the scenes, but the campaigning verve, passion and oratory of Boris in public.
Might I suggest this is why Ruth does well? She's a clever lady, smart tactician, and also a very effective campaigner who uses comedy to good effect.
She is basically Boris with less buffoonery.
Every Tory I've spoken to today from every wing of the party has mentioned her name, unprompted.
Every. Single. One.
To state the bleedin' obvious, 12 gains. TWELVE.
She formed a tank-riding, dog-walking Scottish firewall against PM Corbyn. Of course they're singing her praises.
Today. But she apparently is happy to keep free movement of people in return for single market access. That is toxic for many Tories south of the border.
It is not the same Party. The idea it is is a delusion,
One for TSE: Amber Rudd-Michael Gove dream ticket. Michael Gove enobles Osborne.
Osborne comes back as the new Lord Mandelson??
No, it will be Boris no contest. Woman on BBC London News says she did not vote for May but would have voted for Boris. Boris could get a majority of 50 I think against Corbyn. Could even be Davis leads during negotiations then Boris takes over post Brexit before election
I don't want Boris. Put me down as anyone but Boris.
He's an incompetent buffoon. Not up to the job of governing as PM.
What you really want is someone who's got the work ethic and eye-for-detail of May behind the scenes, but the campaigning verve, passion and oratory of Boris in public.
Might I suggest this is why Ruth does well? She's a clever lady, smart tactician, and also a very effective campaigner who uses comedy to good effect.
She is basically Boris with less buffoonery.
Every Tory I've spoken to today from every wing of the party has mentioned her name, unprompted.
Every. Single. One.
We need Davidson to continue fighting the SNP, Boris to fight Labour
What better way to fight the SNP that for a Scottish MP to become UK PM?
Sorry, I just don't think Boris is up to the job.
I don't see how a Remainer who is already speaking against leaving the single market (despite it being in the manifesto she stood on) is the answer to anything.
Maybe one of the biggest mistakes by the Tories was to have such a long campaign. If you've decided on a snap election because the polls look good, surely the smart thing to do would be to have as short a campaign as possible so that time is limited if the polls do start to move against you.
Conversely, none of the issues about Jeremy Corbyn have gone away.
He's not the messiah. And a long period in opposition with him fully under the spotlight - having become so popular during the campaign - might not necessarily be to his benefit.
If I were the Tories, I'd be undermining his economics and credibility for the next few years relentlessly, whilst positively engagingly with young voters-middle aged with an offer of their own based on economic reality.
This could be the best thing that could have happened - if the Corbyn surge had not happened now and been defeated by a whisker, he could have made his move in 2020 and won. As it is we now know what we are faced with. He is a brilliant campaigner but he's still as mad as a box of frogs and his policies are worse, and can be attacked. He can't do too many stadium rallies outside of election campaigns, he is 68 and while he can ensure that his successor shares his politics, it's less easy to hand on the charisma.
I never thought I'd hear Jeremy described as having charisma. It's amazing what a blue suit and tie will do.
For what it's worth I don't think it has anything to do with charisma just that the zeitgeist has moved to someting less reactionary and stale than we've been used to. Banning the bomb and feeding the poor has always had more of an allure for the young and idealistic than 'Brexit means Brexit'
He is a rock star when he is in a rock star setting - i.e.a rally of adoring fans. We just never knew this until a campaign came along.
Ruth Davidson, is moderate, personable, reasonable, down to earth and pragmatic. All the things Theresa May isn't and all the things the Conservative Party and the country need in a leader right now.
Agree. However, she didn't run for the role of PM.
Think the Tories will try and get her into the Commons in the future.
We need her in Holyrood until Sturgeon has finally abandoned indyref2 for good
One for TSE: Amber Rudd-Michael Gove dream ticket. Michael Gove enobles Osborne.
Osborne comes back as the new Lord Mandelson??
No, it will be Boris no contest. Woman on BBC London News says she did not vote for May but would have voted for Boris. Boris could get a majority of 50 I think against Corbyn. Could even be Davis leads during negotiations then Boris takes over post Brexit before election
I don't want Boris. Put me down as anyone but Boris.
He's an incompetent buffoon. Not up to the job of governing as PM.
What you really want is someone who's got the work ethic and eye-for-detail of May behind the scenes, but the campaigning verve, passion and oratory of Boris in public.
Might I suggest this is why Ruth does well? She's a clever lady, smart tactician, and also a very effective campaigner who uses comedy to good effect.
She is basically Boris with less buffoonery.
Every Tory I've spoken to today from every wing of the party has mentioned her name, unprompted.
Every. Single. One.
We need Davidson to continue fighting the SNP, Boris to fight Labour
One wonders when the time will ever be right for Ms Davidson to come to Westminster though. She's actually in an awful predicament.
All political careers end in failure - just ask TMay and Cameron. The risk for Ruth is that the shine will come off some day, and when (not if, when) it does, when the music stops, will she have held on too long in Scotland and never took the opportunity that presented itself to her?
An unenviable position.
Davidson is making a far more historic contribution in Scotland at the moment than she would be taking moving to Westminster
Ruth Davidson, is moderate, personable, reasonable, down to earth and pragmatic. All the things Theresa May isn't and all the things the Conservative Party and the country need in a leader right now.
Agree. However, she didn't run for the role of PM.
Think the Tories will try and get her into the Commons in the future.
We need her in Holyrood until Sturgeon has finally abandoned indyref2 for good
If Sturgeon won't abandon it now, when will she? Would have though indyref2 was 'dead' (in the words of Ruth) after last night.
Another lesson for the Tories from the election: don't assume the public understand how destructive and self-defeating socialism is.
It will always look good on paper, possibly for the rest of time, and even if it's obviously crazy to you, you will always have to usoberly and patiently explain why.
Sadly you are right, memory of the USSR and East Europe are fading. Which is why there should of been a lot more made of Corbyns Support of Venezuela and misery it has distended in to now.
One for TSE: Amber Rudd-Michael Gove dream ticket. Michael Gove enobles Osborne.
Osborne comes back as the new Lord Mandelson??
No, it will be Boris no contest. Woman on BBC London News says she did not vote for May but would have voted for Boris. Boris could get a majority of 50 I think against Corbyn. Could even be Davis leads during negotiations then Boris takes over post Brexit before election
I don't want Boris. Put me down as anyone but Boris.
He's an incompetent buffoon. Not up to the job of governing as PM.
What you really want is someone who's got the work ethic and eye-for-detail of May behind the scenes, but the campaigning verve, passion and oratory of Boris in public.
Might I suggest this is why Ruth does well? She's a clever lady, smart tactician, and also a very effective campaigner who uses comedy to good effect.
She is basically Boris with less buffoonery.
Every Tory I've spoken to today from every wing of the party has mentioned her name, unprompted.
Every. Single. One.
To state the bleedin' obvious, 12 gains. TWELVE.
She formed a tank-riding, dog-walking Scottish firewall against PM Corbyn. Of course they're singing her praises.
Today. But she apparently is happy to keep free movement of people in return for single market access. That is toxic for many Tories south of the border.
Tories south of the border need to learn compromise. Just like everybody else.
Brexit of some form will happen. But it will be soft. May can afford to push a soft brexit through parliament because enough Labour MPs will back it to cancel out her headbangers. A soft brexit with off the shelf norway EEA is all that is viable now, that means FoM stays, with at best a fig leaf to cover it.
I can't see May getting the chop anytime soon - who would want to replace her as head of a minority govt relying on DUP, without their own mandate. They would be pressured to go back to the country for their own mandate or be labelled as chickens, especially as they will all be on record defending May's decision to call an election. If she decides to leave of her own accord, then tories will want a campaign winner because they will know a new election will be needed. So it will be Boris. Only tory there with proven experience as an election winner.
May can survive until an election, there is no way the Tories will now let May lead them in a general election campaign in preference to Boris
Probably, but if she is there too long she will ruin the tory chances in the following election - zombie government will be the narrative. Weak and wobbly, unable to pass any laws, lacking real authority, a government that is past its expiration date. The longer May is there the more the whole tory party is contaminated.
May still won 43% and most seats in Parliament remember only on Thursday, she is not completely toxic yet albeit very battered
One for TSE: Amber Rudd-Michael Gove dream ticket. Michael Gove enobles Osborne.
Osborne comes back as the new Lord Mandelson??
No, it will be Boris no contest. Woman on BBC London News says she did not vote for May but would have voted for Boris. Boris could get a majority of 50 I think against Corbyn. Could even be Davis leads during negotiations then Boris takes over post Brexit before election
I don't want Boris. Put me down as anyone but Boris.
He's an incompetent buffoon. Not up to the job of governing as PM.
What you really want is someone who's got the work ethic and eye-for-detail of May behind the scenes, but the campaigning verve, passion and oratory of Boris in public.
Might I suggest this is why Ruth does well? She's a clever lady, smart tactician, and also a very effective campaigner who uses comedy to good effect.
She is basically Boris with less buffoonery.
Every Tory I've spoken to today from every wing of the party has mentioned her name, unprompted.
Every. Single. One.
To state the bleedin' obvious, 12 gains. TWELVE.
She formed a tank-riding, dog-walking Scottish firewall against PM Corbyn. Of course they're singing her praises.
Today. But she apparently is happy to keep free movement of people in return for single market access. That is toxic for many Tories south of the border.
It is not the same Party. The idea it is is a delusion,
Which is why her coming south wouldn't work. She should be aiming to be First Minister.
The Tories have 318 MPs - is there not a dynamic, persuasive, untainted prospect for the leadership among them?
One for TSE: Amber Rudd-Michael Gove dream ticket. Michael Gove enobles Osborne.
Osborne comes back as the new Lord Mandelson??
No, it will be Boris no contest. Woman on BBC London News says she did not vote for May but would have voted for Boris. Boris could get a majority of 50 I think against Corbyn. Could even be Davis leads during negotiations then Boris takes over post Brexit before election
I don't want Boris. Put me down as anyone but Boris.
He's an incompetent buffoon. Not up to the job of governing as PM.
What you really want is someone who's got the work ethic and eye-for-detail of May behind the scenes, but the campaigning verve, passion and oratory of Boris in public.
Might I suggest this is why Ruth does well? She's a clever lady, smart tactician, and also a very effective campaigner who uses comedy to good effect.
She is basically Boris with less buffoonery.
Every Tory I've spoken to today from every wing of the party has mentioned her name, unprompted.
Every. Single. One.
We need Davidson to continue fighting the SNP, Boris to fight Labour
What better way to fight the SNP that for a Scottish MP to become UK PM?
Sorry, I just don't think Boris is up to the job.
Being UK PM is a world away from being Holyrood opposition leader, Davidson would have to win a Westminster seat first which she has show no interest in doing and then hold down a Cabinet Post before being considered, she is far better deployed at Holyrood. Boris is already an MP and Foreign Secretary
Another lesson for the Tories from the election: don't assume the public understand how destructive and self-defeating socialism is.
It will always look good on paper, possibly for the rest of time, and even if it's obviously crazy to you, you will always have to usoberly and patiently explain why.
Sadly you are right, memory of the USSR and East Europe are fading. Which is why there should of been a lot more made of Corbyns Support of Venezuela and misery it has distended in to now.
One for TSE: Amber Rudd-Michael Gove dream ticket. Michael Gove enobles Osborne.
Osborne comes back as the new Lord Mandelson??
No, it will be Boris no contest. Woman on BBC London News says she did not vote for May but would have voted for Boris. Boris could get a majority of 50 I think against Corbyn. Could even be Davis leads during negotiations then Boris takes over post Brexit before election
I don't want Boris. Put me down as anyone but Boris.
He's an incompetent buffoon. Not up to the job of governing as PM.
What you really want is someone who's got the work ethic and eye-for-detail of May behind the scenes, but the campaigning verve, passion and oratory of Boris in public.
Might I suggest this is why Ruth does well? She's a clever lady, smart tactician, and also a very effective campaigner who uses comedy to good effect.
She is basically Boris with less buffoonery.
Every Tory I've spoken to today from every wing of the party has mentioned her name, unprompted.
Every. Single. One.
To state the bleedin' obvious, 12 gains. TWELVE.
She formed a tank-riding, dog-walking Scottish firewall against PM Corbyn. Of course they're singing her praises.
Today. But she apparently is happy to keep free movement of people in return for single market access. That is toxic for many Tories south of the border.
Tories south of the border need to learn compromise. Just like everybody else.
One for TSE: Amber Rudd-Michael Gove dream ticket. Michael Gove enobles Osborne.
Osborne comes back as the new Lord Mandelson??
No, it will be Boris no contest. Woman on BBC London News says she did not vote for May but would have voted for Boris. Boris could get a majority of 50 I think against Corbyn. Could even be Davis leads during negotiations then Boris takes over post Brexit before election
I don't want Boris. Put me down as anyone but Boris.
He's an incompetent buffoon. Not up to the job of governing as PM.
What you really want is someone who's got the work ethic and eye-for-detail of May behind the scenes, but the campaigning verve, passion and oratory of Boris in public.
Might I suggest this is why Ruth does well? She's a clever lady, smart tactician, and also a very effective campaigner who uses comedy to good effect.
She is basically Boris with less buffoonery.
Every Tory I've spoken to today from every wing of the party has mentioned her name, unprompted.
Every. Single. One.
To state the bleedin' obvious, 12 gains. TWELVE.
She formed a tank-riding, dog-walking Scottish firewall against PM Corbyn. Of course they're singing her praises.
Today. But she apparently is happy to keep free movement of people in return for single market access. That is toxic for many Tories south of the border.
It is not the same Party. The idea it is is a delusion,
Which is why her coming south wouldn't work. She should be aiming to be First Minister.
The Tories have 318 MPs - is there not a dynamic, persuasive, untainted prospect for the leadership among them?
Yeah, she should be focussing on the 2021 elections to get the SNP out of power.
One for TSE: Amber Rudd-Michael Gove dream ticket. Michael Gove enobles Osborne.
Osborne comes back as the new Lord Mandelson??
No, it will be Boris no contest. Woman on BBC London News says she did not vote for May but would have voted for Boris. Boris could get a majority of 50 I think against Corbyn. Could even be Davis leads during negotiations then Boris takes over post Brexit before election
I don't want Boris. Put me down as anyone but Boris.
He's an incompetent buffoon. Not up to the job of governing as PM.
What you really want is someone who's got the work ethic and eye-for-detail of May behind the scenes, but the campaigning verve, passion and oratory of Boris in public.
Might I suggest this is why Ruth does well? She's a clever lady, smart tactician, and also a very effective campaigner who uses comedy to good effect.
She is basically Boris with less buffoonery.
Every Tory I've spoken to today from every wing of the party has mentioned her name, unprompted.
Every. Single. One.
To state the bleedin' obvious, 12 gains. TWELVE.
She formed a tank-riding, dog-walking Scottish firewall against PM Corbyn. Of course they're singing her praises.
Today. But she apparently is happy to keep free movement of people in return for single market access. That is toxic for many Tories south of the border.
It is not the same Party. The idea it is is a delusion,
Which is why her coming south wouldn't work. She should be aiming to be First Minister.
The Tories have 318 MPs - is there not a dynamic, persuasive, untainted prospect for the leadership among them?
Another lesson for the Tories from the election: don't assume the public understand how destructive and self-defeating socialism is.
It will always look good on paper, possibly for the rest of time, and even if it's obviously crazy to you, you will always have to soberly and patiently explain why.
I think the odds of a PM Corbyn, President Sanders and President Melenchon by the end of 2022 have just fallen sharply since last night, of course if we get tooth and claw socialism for a few years neoliberalism may start to find itself back in fashion again as a reaction to it
We shall see. The word neoliberal is a turn off though.
Thatcherite, Reaganite, free marketer call it what you will but just as the cycle has shifted to socialism in reaction to what is mistakenly seen as unfettered capitalism so if we really do get socialist governments again it could swiftly swing backwards
Ruth Davidson, is moderate, personable, reasonable, down to earth and pragmatic. All the things Theresa May isn't and all the things the Conservative Party and the country need in a leader right now.
Agree. However, she didn't run for the role of PM.
Think the Tories will try and get her into the Commons in the future.
We need her in Holyrood until Sturgeon has finally abandoned indyref2 for good
If Sturgeon won't abandon it now, when will she? Would have though indyref2 was 'dead' (in the words of Ruth) after last night.
Until Sturgeon actually does say it is dead Ruth will be snapping at her heels, in retrospect just as May made a mistake calling an election to back hard Brexit so Sturgeon made a mistake calling for indyref2 straight after the Leave vote, both their parties lost seats as a result
Brexit of some form will happen. But it will be soft. May can afford to push a soft brexit through parliament because enough Labour MPs will back it to cancel out her headbangers. A soft brexit with off the shelf norway EEA is all that is viable now, that means FoM stays, with at best a fig leaf to cover it.
I can't see May getting the chop anytime soon - who would want to replace her as head of a minority govt relying on DUP, without their own mandate. They would be pressured to go back to the country for their own mandate or be labelled as chickens, especially as they will all be on record defending May's decision to call an election. If she decides to leave of her own accord, then tories will want a campaign winner because they will know a new election will be needed. So it will be Boris. Only tory there with proven experience as an election winner.
May can survive until an election, there is no way the Tories will now let May lead them in a general election campaign in preference to Boris
Probably, but if she is there too long she will ruin the tory chances in the following election - zombie government will be the narrative. Weak and wobbly, unable to pass any laws, lacking real authority, a government that is past its expiration date. The longer May is there the more the whole tory party is contaminated.
May still won 43% and most seats in Parliament remember only on Thursday, she is not completely toxic yet albeit very battered
Not yet but she will be. It's all about perceptions, regardless of actual results. Her image as Thatcher 2.0 is shot to pieces, she is now more like Major post black wednesday. The 43% is good but in a 2 party system it's nothing special - Corbyn won 40% after all.
this vote was not a rejection of Brexit outside of Remain areas, it was a vote for an easing of austerity and against paying more for social care.
"Easing of austerity" is not compatible with Brexit.
Brexit is dead, not because the electorate voted against it per se, but because it cannot be delivered.
The votes in the HoC for all the dirty work are not there.
It is if you cut corporation tax etc to bring in more revenues and the Tories + DUP +Field, Hoey, Skinner etc on the Labour side provide a clear majority for Brexit in the new Parliament
You are starting to sound a tad desperate!
Even Corbyn backs Brexit and some free movement controls, it was the LDs who wanted to stop Brexit completely and they failed abysmally
Failed insofar as they increased their seats?
The LDs won 12 seats out of 600, hardly a wave of Leave regret was it!
The leave regret vote went for Labour, not the LD's because it thought Labour could and would work for a softer Brexit. Theresa's unspecified but hard brexit is why you lost seats.
Maybe one of the biggest mistakes by the Tories was to have such a long campaign. If you've decided on a snap election because the polls look good, surely the smart thing to do would be to have as short a campaign as possible so that time is limited if the polls do start to move against you.
Conversely, none of the issues about Jeremy Corbyn have gone away.
He's not the messiah. And a long period in opposition with him fully under the spotlight - having become so popular during the campaign - might not necessarily be to his benefit.
If I were the Tories, I'd be undermining his economics and credibility for the next few years relentlessly, whilst positively engagingly with young voters-middle aged with an offer of their own based on economic reality.
This could be the best thing that could have happened - if the Corbyn surge had not happened now and been defeated by a whisker, he could have made his move in 2020 and won. As it is we now know what we are faced with. He is a brilliant campaigner but he's still as mad as a box of frogs and his policies are worse, and can be attacked. He can't do too many stadium rallies outside of election campaigns, he is 68 and while he can ensure that his successor shares his politics, it's less easy to hand on the charisma.
I never thought I'd hear Jeremy described as having charisma. It's amazing what a blue suit and tie will do.
For what it's worth I don't think it has anything to do with charisma just that the zeitgeist has moved to someting less reactionary and stale than we've been used to. Banning the bomb and feeding the poor has always had more of an allure for the young and idealistic than 'Brexit means Brexit'
He is a rock star when he is in a rock star setting - i.e.a rally of adoring fans. We just never knew this until a campaign came along.
I wonder how he will control his adoring fans now? If they organise into any sort of movement he's going to be massively exposed to being linked to any civil disorder at any sort of future protest. It will only take a small group and we know those types are in there. And I do wonder what they will make of him pressing a hard-ish Brexit in the House.
No it is not, this vote was not a rejection of Brexit outside of Remain areas, it was a vote for an easing of austerity and against paying more for social care.
Correction: it was a vote against increased self-funding of social care. That's not the same as a vote against paying more.
Well somebody has to pay for it, if not through National Insurance or your estate then through higher taxes (and no that cannot be only paid by people richer than you)
Obviously. The risk of catastrophic care costs is a quantifiable and, therefore, collectivisable risk. This is the very business of government. The proposed arrangement was, in effect, a random massive inheritance, i.e. a failure of collectivisation. We no longer consider this acceptable for the costs of cancer and heart disease. It's hardly surprising that a similar failure to collectivise the costs of dementia proves unpopular.
I would separate the revenue raising for dementia care from its provision. We don't have specific taxes for medical care, so why link social care with a new tax. This should be funded from general taxation, which we must increase. I don't believe we should tax earned income further, so my preference would be to equalise the tax rates on earned and unearned income (i.e. subsume capital gains into income and eliminate CGT) and to close loopholes in the collection of estate tax (i.e. gifts and trusts).
He is a very able man. I am confident Boris is "up for the job" in terms of being a good salesman come election-time and, based on reports of how he worked as London Mayor and how he is doing in the Foreign Office, quite capable of getting on with the business of administration. But there are at least four black marks against him, more serious than his love life or gaffe-prone nature or the "buffoon" question..
Would the EU treat him as a serious negotiating partner? (I guess the EU would just have to learn to, but people will be bearing this in mind when considering supporting him.)
As leader of the party, would he be a net vote loser and potentially a brand-retoxifier? (There are certain parts of the population he can reach that other Tories can't, so I don't understand why more use wasn't made of him on the campaign trail, rather than the narrow presidential-style focus on May. But he also turns some swing voters right off, and he is yet another posho. May has got through to people that Cameron couldn't. Plenty of these voters would find Boris PM far less palatable. As a tool deployed correctly I'm sure he wins vote, as figurehead of a national campaign he could well be a big net negative.)
Could his obvious upper-class Englishness and divisiveness cost the Tories in key regions or nations? (We know how the folk of Liverpool see him, though no marginals there. But in some of the Midlands and northern seats May was targeting, he doesn't strike me as the right kind of Tory. Would he really buoy the party in Wales? Could he be a serious, wipe-out style, liability in Scotland?)
As a controversial figure within the party, could he create serious fissures within it? (Possibly unhealable if we believe certain newspaper front pages with respect to the Scottish party! But then there is the Gove issue, the internal class warfare that seems to have been taking place post-Cameron, and so on. The risk the Tory party would be taking by selecting him would not just be how the party is seen by the voters, but the coherence of the party itself.)
Ruth Davidson, is moderate, personable, reasonable, down to earth and pragmatic. All the things Theresa May isn't and all the things the Conservative Party and the country need in a leader right now.
Agree. However, she didn't run for the role of PM.
Think the Tories will try and get her into the Commons in the future.
We need her in Holyrood until Sturgeon has finally abandoned indyref2 for good
If Sturgeon won't abandon it now, when will she? Would have though indyref2 was 'dead' (in the words of Ruth) after last night.
Until Sturgeon actually does say it is dead Ruth will be snapping at her heels, in retrospect just as May made a mistake calling an election to back hard Brexit so Sturgeon made a mistake calling for indyref2 straight after the Leave vote, both their parties lost seats as a result
As much as it would pain Sturgeon to realise it, she and May actually had pretty similar campaigns and results - manifesto/indyref balls up, 'won' but with fewer seats, popular in recent times but now disliked by many, position weakened, will have to be more humble/collegiate.....Obviously May's predicament is far worse, but there are certain parallels.
Ruth Davidson, is moderate, personable, reasonable, down to earth and pragmatic. All the things Theresa May isn't and all the things the Conservative Party and the country need in a leader right now.
Agree. However, she didn't run for the role of PM.
Think the Tories will try and get her into the Commons in the future.
We need her in Holyrood until Sturgeon has finally abandoned indyref2 for good
If Sturgeon won't abandon it now, when will she? Would have though indyref2 was 'dead' (in the words of Ruth) after last night.
Until Sturgeon actually does say it is dead Ruth will be snapping at her heels, in retrospect just as May made a mistake calling an election to back hard Brexit so Sturgeon made a mistake calling for indyref2 straight after the Leave vote, both their parties lost seats as a result
As much as it would pain Sturgeon to realise it, she and May actually had pretty similar campaigns and results - manifesto/indyref balls up, 'won' but with fewer seats, popular in recent times but now disliked by many, position weakened, will have to be more humble/collegiate.....Obviously May's predicament is far worse, but there are certain parallels.
Yes there certainly are and now Salmond has lost his Westminster seat he may be looking back to Holyrood again
He is a very able man. I am confident Boris is "up for the job" in terms of being a good salesman come election-time and, based on reports of how he worked as London Mayor and how he is doing in the Foreign Office, quite capable of getting on with the business of administration. But there are at least four black marks against him, more serious than his love life or gaffe-prone nature or the "buffoon" question..
Would the EU treat him as a serious negotiating partner? (I guess the EU would just have to learn to, but people will be bearing this in mind when considering supporting him.)
As leader of the party, would he be a net vote loser and potentially a brand-retoxifier? (There are certain parts of the population he can reach that other Tories can't, so I don't understand why more use wasn't made of him on the campaign trail, rather than the narrow presidential-style focus on May. But he also turns some swing voters right off, and he is yet another posho. May has got through to people that Cameron couldn't. Plenty of these voters would find Boris PM far less palatable. As a tool deployed correctly I'm sure he wins vote, as figurehead of a national campaign he could well be a big net negative.)
Could his obvious upper-class Englishness and divisiveness cost the Tories in key regions or nations? (We know how the folk of Liverpool see him, though no marginals there. But in some of the Midlands and northern seats May was targeting, he doesn't strike me as the right kind of Tory. Would he really buoy the party in Wales? Could he be a serious, wipe-out style, liability in Scotland?)
As a controversial figure within the party, could he create serious fissures within it? (Possibly unhealable if we believe certain newspaper front pages with respect to the Scottish party! But then there is the Gove issue, the internal class warfare that seems to have been taking place post-Cameron, and so on. The risk the Tory party would be taking by selecting him would not just be how the party is seen by the voters, but the coherence of the party itself.)
Boris would boost the Tory vote in Leave seats in the north, midlands or south, no difference in Remain seats, after all he effectively took Vote Leave over the winning post, in Scotland he would make no difference, Scots don't want another independence referendum and Davidson capitalised on that, whether Boris or May is PM would not change that at all
But the Tories never said "we can raise money by lowering tax". They ridiculed the idea of raising extra tax revenue as "magic money tree". Which means they believe we're exactly at the very peak of the Laffer curve.
No, they said "we lowered tax and raised money", which implies we are on the right hand side of the curve.
They wanted to lower the rate further to raise more money
There is no evidence whatsoever that, at 19%, we are already to the right of the Laffer peak for corporation tax. I have debunked this elsewhere. After adjusting for accounting year differences and then recsaling for inflation or GDP, historical CT receipts broadly follow trends in the tax rate - albeit with noise.
The recent Tory claim is based on a single year of CT receipts which were inflated due to an accounting year change, which weren't rescaled, and for whose uncertainty no account was made. In other words, it was economically illiterate rubbish.
Comments
It'll be 100% Brexit and nothing else other than ongoing day to day management.
They'll keep the DUP happy by giving NI some extra cash.
I could also get behind Rudd if she was to go for the leadership.
And I also love Ruth, but I don't think its her time, not yet anyway.
When we look back on the most inept campaigns in political history, the Tory GE2017 campaign is going to rank pretty high... the only reason why some didn't pick up on it at the time was the (now proven false) belief that although it appeared sh*t, there was some 2015-esque genius behind it that none of us could see on the face of it but would actually vindicate the tactics in the end.
Whereas, in reality, it really was just sh*t.
North East Fife 2
Richmond Park 45
Ceredigion 104
St Ives 312
Sheffield, Hallam 2,175
Cheltenham 2,569
Leeds North West 4,224
North Devon 4,332
Cheadle 4,507
Lewes 5,508
Hazel Grove 5,514
Southport 5,880
St Albans 6,109
Wells 6,582
North Cornwall 7,200
Ross, Skye & Lochaber 7,438
Brecon & Radnorshire 8,038
Argyll & Bute 8,559
Montgomeryshire 9,285
Winchester 9,999
As the Warwickshire Hounds ran down the straight I thought, well proper foxhunting is dead in the water again..
As is the 600 seat boundary review... surely?
Not disappointed to see Stewart Jackson lose..
Great to see Andrew Bingham lose, has done nothing to support stopping wildlife crime in High Peak...
Laura Kuenssberg's face on publication of the exit poll was the highlight of my night
Sad to see Nick Clegg lose..
I looked at 3 seats for constituency betting on Lab after the You Gov poll, they were Camborne, Portsmouth S and Norwich N, but put nothing on. Portsmouth S would have been a nice pay out.
I said 10 days ago on here that screaming IRA, IRA at Corbyn wasn't working. Very happy to be right.
The result is basically beautiful. The Tories now have to clean up their own mess, whilst in a death grip with the DUP. If I was Theresa I would invite Starmer and others to help negotiate Brexit in a cross party way. This needs to be non partisan now. There was NEVER a majority for the Brexit Theresa was enthusiastic about. The 48 have had their say now.
plus BRS (in percentage terms all 19%+) The lack of safe seats, especially now that we seem to see much bigger swings in individual seats than before, that help to make Scottish politics quite interesting.
But, it was one I could get behind.
All 3 should be in the Cabinet but a party leader and PM needs to be a winner and have charisma
He's an incompetent buffoon. Not up to the job of governing as PM.
What you really want is someone who's got the work ethic and eye-for-detail of May behind the scenes, but the campaigning verve, passion and oratory of Boris in public.
But I still think it's unlikely. It's not even obvious to me that senior Labour leadership particularly wants to stop Brexit - many of them are eurosceptic, the kind of manifesto they want would certainly be easier to implement outside the EU, and if their primary concern is power (particularly, given ages, a last shot at power) then any stance that could blow up on them and cost them their majority would surely be avoided. Even a second referendum has the potential to be a net vote loser, would it be worth jeopardising their chance for it?
It will always look good on paper, possibly for the rest of time, and even if it's obviously crazy to you, you will always have to soberly and patiently explain why.
-The Past, something many voters, not just Conservative agree on that if the past is going to be let go of, its let go of, not one side doing victim status and getting inquiries against state employees.
-Maintaining a reasonable cross border Ireland/Northern Ireland trade situation and some enhanced support for the NI region to deal with the loss of European cash.
-Triggering the next Assembly elections but otherwise a hands off approach to getting Stormont back on track. The DUP love the devolved power, very very comfortable up on the hill and have a fair set of technocrats and wonks. Sinn Fein have struggled more with that day to day operation.
-Couple of pet projects needing a bit of extra cash. This plays well and is small fry money in a UK context
In reality, some of these are fairly common Conservative and DUP agreement points already but this just avoids backsliding.
She is basically Boris with less buffoonery.
Isn't that what you and others vilified remoaners for saying this time last year?
Principled lot.
I can't see May getting the chop anytime soon - who would want to replace her as head of a minority govt relying on DUP, without their own mandate. They would be pressured to go back to the country for their own mandate or be labelled as chickens, especially as they will all be on record defending May's decision to call an election. If she decides to leave of her own accord, then tories will want a campaign winner because they will know a new election will be needed. So it will be Boris. Only tory there with proven experience as an election winner.
Corbyn's Labour Party are offering an alternative. The rest are fiddling around the edges.
The time for false dichotomies has passed.
Boris doesn't, and muddles through. Plus he's a gaffe a minute.
We'd have a different kind of problem.
Depressingly, I wonder if this is all more cyclical than we have traditionally thought. Maybe socialism wasn't defeated forever, maybe it was just banished for a few decades...
If anything I'm arguing the Tories are complacent and arrogant for not bothering to make the case against socialism themselves, believing it made itself.
For what it's worth I don't think it has anything to do with charisma just that the zeitgeist has moved to someting less reactionary and stale than we've been used to. Banning the bomb and feeding the poor has always had more of an allure for the young and idealistic than 'Brexit means Brexit'
Every. Single. One.
They wanted to lower the rate further to raise more money
Sorry, I just don't think Boris is up to the job.
I get that although the DUP has a dodgy past, it's worked to live it down, like others after the Troubles. But in practice the probability that they'll say and do things that the Government will find very embarrassing is high. And it may directly get in the way of a Brexit deal, since they have strong views on the issue that rule out some possible compromises.
All political careers end in failure - just ask TMay and Cameron. The risk for Ruth is that the shine will come off some day, and when (not if, when) it does, when the music stops, will she have held on too long in Scotland and never took the opportunity that presented itself to her?
An unenviable position.
She formed a tank-riding, dog-walking Scottish firewall against PM Corbyn. Of course they're singing her praises.
Today. But she apparently is happy to keep free movement of people in return for single market access. That is toxic for many Tories south of the border.
What a wretched state we are in.
The Tories have 318 MPs - is there not a dynamic, persuasive, untainted prospect for the leadership among them?
Alot of people want an EFTA arrangement.
I would separate the revenue raising for dementia care from its provision. We don't have specific taxes for medical care, so why link social care with a new tax. This should be funded from general taxation, which we must increase. I don't believe we should tax earned income further, so my preference would be to equalise the tax rates on earned and unearned income (i.e. subsume capital gains into income and eliminate CGT) and to close loopholes in the collection of estate tax (i.e. gifts and trusts).
Would the EU treat him as a serious negotiating partner? (I guess the EU would just have to learn to, but people will be bearing this in mind when considering supporting him.)
As leader of the party, would he be a net vote loser and potentially a brand-retoxifier? (There are certain parts of the population he can reach that other Tories can't, so I don't understand why more use wasn't made of him on the campaign trail, rather than the narrow presidential-style focus on May. But he also turns some swing voters right off, and he is yet another posho. May has got through to people that Cameron couldn't. Plenty of these voters would find Boris PM far less palatable. As a tool deployed correctly I'm sure he wins vote, as figurehead of a national campaign he could well be a big net negative.)
Could his obvious upper-class Englishness and divisiveness cost the Tories in key regions or nations? (We know how the folk of Liverpool see him, though no marginals there. But in some of the Midlands and northern seats May was targeting, he doesn't strike me as the right kind of Tory. Would he really buoy the party in Wales? Could he be a serious, wipe-out style, liability in Scotland?)
As a controversial figure within the party, could he create serious fissures within it? (Possibly unhealable if we believe certain newspaper front pages with respect to the Scottish party! But then there is the Gove issue, the internal class warfare that seems to have been taking place post-Cameron, and so on. The risk the Tory party would be taking by selecting him would not just be how the party is seen by the voters, but the coherence of the party itself.)
The recent Tory claim is based on a single year of CT receipts which were inflated due to an accounting year change, which weren't rescaled, and for whose uncertainty no account was made. In other words, it was economically illiterate rubbish.