For me, the night turned out surprisingly well in betting terms. Despite backing a bunch of Conservative victories in individual constituencies, most of which were losers, and initially targetting a Con Maj of around 100, I ended up with a respectable profit. The constituency tally ended up not too bad since I'd backed some Labour wins (esp. Scotland) at good odds, and I'd also guessed fairly well on the LibDem victories. Overall, much to my surprise I find I'm slightly up on the constituency bets. I'd bet against the LibDem earlyish, which worked out well. Also I had some spread bets on turnout and on the number of female MPs (bought on Star Spreads at 169.5, it should settle at 207) which were useful contributors.
The big betting lesson, once again, is that the probability distribution is flatter than your might think. No betting the farm on 'free money' like Con Maj at 1.25, and always try to mirror bets at both ends of the distribution (in this case, some bets on Labour compensated for on bets on the Tories).
Tories propped up by these factors: waving the unionist card playing the toxic card to scare old voters against Corbyn
......these two will unravel over the next months and leave the Tories facing electoral disaster at the next GE....
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is going to leave us with a lame duck Govt for 5 long years making Major's final years seem joyous in comparison.....
I thought Corbyn was crazy to agree a general election, when the FTPA provided the perfect cover. But the wily old fox was clearly adhering to the old Lenin maxim: 'As soon as their guard is down, we shall smash them with our clenched fist.'
That statement was extraordinary. It sounds like the one she expected to give with a huge majority, with the addition of the words "with the Democratic unionist Party"
No contrition. No concessions. No recognition of her diminished authority and mandate.
That statement was extraordinary. It sounds like the one she expected to give with a huge majority, with the addition of the words "with the Democratic unionist Party"
No contrition. No concessions. No recognition of her diminished authority and mandate.
The same applies in reverse to the Tories, 2 party politics means big swings and seat gains in either direction but as long as that 44% stays blue so Corbyn cannot win
That 44% ain't staying blue. There's nothing like a humiliating loss of authority to deter supporters.. They will simply melt away once they see the empress has no clothes. It's no tautology to state that people back winners.
If big beasts want to join her cabinet and she gives assurances she would govern more say in the style of Cameron then she might be able to hang on for a while.
If people like Boris, Davis, Gove etc won't be in her cabinet then she will fall quickly.
That statement was extraordinary. It sounds like the one she expected to give with a huge majority, with the addition of the words "with the Democratic unionist Party"
No contrition. No concessions. No recognition of her diminished authority and mandate.
Thought: there is now, surely, a large majority of MPs in the Commons who favor Soft Brexit. If they caucus, they can deliver it. TMay will have to yield or she'll be paralyzed and forced into an election she will probably lose.
Mrs May's speaking like someone's who has won a 100 seat majority
Pound-shop Gordon Brown?
She's managed to make Gordon Brown look good, he doesn't look so stupid now for not calling a snap election in 2007.
+ He also resigned when he'd lost!
Only days later and after 29% not 44%
If you make an election a referendum on yourself and blow a 20 point lead you run the risk of even your supporters thinking you are a loser.
She e on a higher voteshare than any Tory leader for 30 years, the fact she did not match her peak performance dors not change that. Maybe she will ultimately go but for now she has a majority with the DUP and can stay in No10. We will see what weekend polls show
For me, the night turned out surprisingly well in betting terms. Despite backing a bunch of Conservative victories in individual constituencies, most of which were losers, and initially targetting a Con Maj of around 100, I ended up with a respectable profit. The constituency tally ended up not too bad since I'd backed some Labour wins (esp. Scotland) at good odds, and I'd also guessed fairly well on the LibDem victories. Overall, much to my surprise I find I'm slightly up on the constituency bets. I'd bet against the LibDem earlyish, which worked out well. Also I had some spread bets on turnout and on the number of female MPs (bought on Star Spreads at 169.5, it should settle at 207) which were useful contributors.
The big betting lesson, once again, is that the probability distribution is flatter than your might think. No betting the farm on 'free money' like Con Maj at 1.25, and always try to mirror bets at both ends of the distribution (in this case, some bets on Labour compensated for on bets on the Tories).
Mrs May's speaking like someone's who has won a 100 seat majority
Pound-shop Gordon Brown?
She's managed to make Gordon Brown look good, he doesn't look so stupid now for not calling a snap election in 2007.
+ He also resigned when he'd lost!
Only days later and after 29% not 44%
If you make an election a referendum on yourself and blow a 20 point lead you run the risk of even your supporters thinking you are a loser.
She e on a higher voteshare than any Tory leader for 30 years, the fact she did not match her peak performance dors not change that. Maybe she will ultimately go but for now she has a majority with the DUP and can stay in No10. We will see what weekend polls show
No way can she stay. She got told to f off by the electorate.
- This is very much Theresa May's disaster, obviously, but in vote-count terms she did very well; it was Corbyn's success in unifying multiple strands of the non-Tory vote which was the story of the night.
- With hindsight, there was one very good indicator of Corbyn's possible appeal from across the Channel. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is very like Corbyn in being a far-left relic whom everyone thought was unelectable and whose programe was a hilarious fantasy. Yet he did much better than anyone had initially expected. To a lesser extent the same is true of Bernie Sanders, although he's not as bonkers as Corbyn or Mélenchon.
- The left in general, and the Labour Party in particular, are likely to draw the wrong conclusion from the result, thinking that they can succeed on a far-left platform with 'one more push'. But this push only got as far as it did because literally no-one (including Labour themselves) took it seriously. If the Labour manifesto and front-bench had been assessed as a possible government-in-waiting, they'd have done much less well.
- I note that people who a few weeks ago were writing off Labour are now writing off the prospects for the Tories over the next few years. Always a mistake: 1992 is the best example of a similar error (Labour was thought sure to win before the election, and then considered terminally damaged afterwards).
- I have no idea what will happen next, politics once again seems to be moving faster than ever. Lord only knows how we can negotiate Brexit from this position; it's hard to see Theresa May being the person to do it.
Mrs May's speaking like someone's who has won a 100 seat majority
Pound-shop Gordon Brown?
She's managed to make Gordon Brown look good, he doesn't look so stupid now for not calling a snap election in 2007.
+ He also resigned when he'd lost!
Only days later and after 29% not 44%
If you make an election a referendum on yourself and blow a 20 point lead you run the risk of even your supporters thinking you are a loser.
She e on a higher voteshare than any Tory leader for 30 years, the fact she did not match her peak performance dors not change that. Maybe she will ultimately go but for now she has a majority with the DUP and can stay in No10. We will see what weekend polls show
No way can she stay. She got told to f off by the electorate.
She won most votes and seats, in the short term at least she stays
Comments
Rudd PM soon
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
The big betting lesson, once again, is that the probability distribution is flatter than your might think. No betting the farm on 'free money' like Con Maj at 1.25, and always try to mirror bets at both ends of the distribution (in this case, some bets on Labour compensated for on bets on the Tories).
Laters one and all.
It's been real (ok, unreal).
edit - this speech suggests someone needs to tell her what's happened! This is quite Gordon Brown-esque.
More chance Watford staying up next season!
Surely no chance.
No contrition. No concessions. No recognition of her diminished authority and mandate.
Oh lordy "our friends and allies in the DUP ...."
It's the Conservative & Flat Earth Society Government
BBC commentator said her speech was brave and impressive
Will Boris accept a job. If not it's game over.
If people like Boris, Davis, Gove etc won't be in her cabinet then she will fall quickly.
I say that as a deepest tory
now I must be off.
The woman is nits!
I was wrong
Agreed. She needs to be gone urgently.
- This is very much Theresa May's disaster, obviously, but in vote-count terms she did very well; it was Corbyn's success in unifying multiple strands of the non-Tory vote which was the story of the night.
- With hindsight, there was one very good indicator of Corbyn's possible appeal from across the Channel. Jean-Luc Mélenchon is very like Corbyn in being a far-left relic whom everyone thought was unelectable and whose programe was a hilarious fantasy. Yet he did much better than anyone had initially expected. To a lesser extent the same is true of Bernie Sanders, although he's not as bonkers as Corbyn or Mélenchon.
- The left in general, and the Labour Party in particular, are likely to draw the wrong conclusion from the result, thinking that they can succeed on a far-left platform with 'one more push'. But this push only got as far as it did because literally no-one (including Labour themselves) took it seriously. If the Labour manifesto and front-bench had been assessed as a possible government-in-waiting, they'd have done much less well.
- I note that people who a few weeks ago were writing off Labour are now writing off the prospects for the Tories over the next few years. Always a mistake: 1992 is the best example of a similar error (Labour was thought sure to win before the election, and then considered terminally damaged afterwards).
- I have no idea what will happen next, politics once again seems to be moving faster than ever. Lord only knows how we can negotiate Brexit from this position; it's hard to see Theresa May being the person to do it.
(Not DUPers though - the family back that breakaway unionist party a few years back - was it McAlistair or someone?)
TMay an absolute disgrace.