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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It looks like Mrs May’s UKIP firewall was as good a defence as

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  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    Essexit said:

    Cleggxit

    Very good. History wil judge him kindly
  • Tory London meltdown. Is there a Tory voter left in London?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Lib Dems being wiped out in England. Just Scottish party. SNP decline amazing. Labour growth incredible. Tories - Idiots.

    My £50 on LD sub 10 @ ~6/1 is looking good.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576

    Lib Dems being wiped out in England. Just Scottish party.

    Their support level is about the same, they're just clustered in Scotland.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769

    Labour gain high peak omg massive swing

    Yougov's model vindicated.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    EDW20000 said:

    Sad for Clegg, the coalition did for him

    Cleggy did for Cleggy
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Very sorry to see Clegg go.

    Yes. I had hoped that Farron would go and Clegg would take up the reins
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    Clegg put the country before his party, much respect for him.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872

    Tories really need to find an offering for the young pretty sharpish, who seem to find no threat or fear in pacifism or socialism.

    Show me a post where you said that pre-referendum ?

    These are obvious potential consequences. You were warned.
    Go to bed.
  • EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    With terrorism we need good relations with EU
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,120
    Clegg will be able to get a job in the EU now Brexit is finished....
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Essexit said:

    Cleggxit

    Very good. History wil judge him kindly
    Indeed. A politician that is head and shoulders above most.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    Boris' Majority only 5k.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,678
    Guess not enough people agreed with Nick.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139
    SeanT said:

    Clegg's lost.

    Sad

    hahahahahahahahaha

    Never forgave him after the Lib Dems offered an in/out referendum then he decided that such a thing was an abomination when it actually became democratically possible.

    Liberal DEMOCRATS??

    Fuck off, old boy. Fuck off.
    And perhaps the same should be said for you. Do you actually have a position on anything, aside from who can give you an (viagra assisted) erection ?

    I hope you, like Scrooge McDuck, enjoy your pile of money.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    Chameleon said:

    Lib Dems being wiped out in England. Just Scottish party. SNP decline amazing. Labour growth incredible. Tories - Idiots.

    My £50 on LD sub 10 @ ~6/1 is looking good.
    Is it? They could end up on eight in Scotland, plus Twickenham...

    Just one more stuffs you...
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    hunchman said:

    Con gain Walsall North against the trend, to say the least.

    Hopefully Walsall South and Vaz but I don't see it
    Midland results really not bad for the Tories
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    HYUFD said:

    Floater said:

    Gower gone - about this majority....

    With DUP at least the Tories should have a majority I think thanks to Scotland, anyway that is where it is heading I believe
    WITH someone is not a majority.....
  • Thurrock Tory HOLD

    Thank God. Looking like up to 20 Tory losses to Labour
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited June 2017
    Chameleon said:

    glw said:

    Chameleon said:


    kle4 said:

    Part of me wonders if Corbyn and co might not prefer to fall slightly short, as they've galvanized the youth vote, but no way they could deliver on all they promised.

    Hopefully Con will see what he's done and offer some things to the youth vote in the coming GE.
    I SHALL SPELL IT OUT IN ALL CAPS FOR CCHQ. GRADUATE TAX, IT'S "FAIR" AND IT CAN BRING IN MORE MONEY.
    There's already a graduate tax. 9% extra tax on all income above £20k. A graduate tax would also do fuck all to get the youth vote onside when Lab are offering free tuition.
    Loans with income-contingent repayments have two advantages over an uncapped graduate tax - you can (at least in theory) chase after someone after they've moved abroad, and you don't end up paying more than the cost of your education + interest. A capped graduate tax is basically a student loan system anyway, with the disadvantage of not being able to charge graduates who move abroad to work.

    If the government is going to charge graduates, I think it's hard to design a better system than the student loan system. But obviously this still doesn't make it very attractive to young people! If the government does not charge tuition, or imposes a severe cap on fees, then if they are unable to pump serious money towards the universities (and this is bound to happen at times when they face fiscal constraint... like now!) then we could easily end up with the top 20 or so unis going independent and charging 15 or 20k a year. (Not unreasonable if you compare it to boarding school costs, or fees for international students, or what top US institutions charge. Mindboggling and offputting numbers if you're 18...)

    I think if a bribe for the young is to be found, it probably won't be lower fees. Though David Davis might like the idea.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,216
    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    Clegg. The man who gave us the Tories who gave us Brexit. No Flowers.

    Amen to that.
    You can blame him for quite a few things, but to do so for Brexit is beyond absurd.



  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972

    Con gain Walsall North against the trend, to say the least.

    Good to say I actually phoned at least ONE seat where the Tories made a gain tonight, good gain for the Tories in Walsall
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,116
    LAB Gower! Got on at 3/1.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,485
    rcs1000 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    https://twitter.com/IanClarke41/status/872992448355729409

    Normal Lamb could hold onto Norfolk North.

    I'm personally very pleased for him. He is a good man, and was a good minister.
    as I said on the previous post. I share that opinion of Lamb. He's done a lot to promote the cause of mental health. more than any other politician I know.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,639
    Y0kel said:

    EPG said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sinn Fein gain Foyle. Perhaps a sympathy vote to the memory of Martin McGuinness who used to be the SF candidate there for many elections.

    Middle-class Catholics / Nationalists are just sick of the endless scowling from Arlene Foster's unionism. The SDLP couldn't satisfy that demand and keep unionist tactical votes, it looks like they lost a bit of both.
    Thats balls, Sinn Fein were always going to do this, they've been wearing the SDLP down in Derry for near 8 years now., long before Arlene was on the scene.

    I thought they'd do it in 2015. I was two years out.
    Nah, was no more inevitable than UUP wipe out or UUP recovery, i.e. it wasn't. There is a clear change in the mood all over the two islands, you can't keep calling Catholics reptiles and expect infinite cheek-turning.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    Mortimer said:

    Tories really need to find an offering for the young pretty sharpish, who seem to find no threat or fear in pacifism or socialism.

    Its houses.

    I've said it for years. We need to build MILLIONS of houses.
    I agree.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PaulBrandITV: BREAKING: Labour sources say will take Canterbury, which Julian Brazier has held since 1987.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    26% majority in Westminster North
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431

    Tory London meltdown. Is there a Tory voter left in London?

    Ian Duncan Smith hold
  • GooeyBlobGooeyBlob Posts: 5
    Con hold Amber Valley, swing Lab to Con 4.5%
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    Tory London meltdown. Is there a Tory voter left in London?

    Putney.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Changes in Sheffield Hallam:

    Lab +2.6%
    LD -5.4%
    Con +10.2%
    UKIP -4.8%
    Greens -1.8%
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited June 2017
    RobD said:

    What an election :o

    Old school two party battle down to the wire. – Gripping stuff.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    Labour hold Birmingham Yardley
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    jonny83 said:

    Clegg put the country before his party, much respect for him.

    Yes he did
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    dixiedean said:

    Jonathan said:

    Clegg. The man who gave us the Tories who gave us Brexit. No Flowers.

    Amen to that.
    Rubbish. Labour had no interest in staying in govt in 2010. Clegg was dealt a shit hand, no choice.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139

    Tory London meltdown. Is there a Tory voter left in London?

    Ian Duncan Smith hold
    F*ck.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Scott_P said:

    @PaulBrandITV: BREAKING: Labour sources say will take Canterbury, which Julian Brazier has held since 1987.

    This is a large realignment.
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Birmingham egbaston hugggeee labour hold
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    Ed Miliband holds Doncaster North
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    UKIP get 20% in Thurrock @foxinsoxuk
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    IDS safe.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Lab gain Bristol NW
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    edited June 2017
    Floater said:

    HYUFD said:

    Floater said:

    Gower gone - about this majority....

    With DUP at least the Tories should have a majority I think thanks to Scotland, anyway that is where it is heading I believe
    WITH someone is not a majority.....
    Call it a National Government or something...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Bristol NW gone
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    South Holland and the Deepings
    Tory hold
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531
    Comrades gain Stroud AND Bristol NW
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    spudgfsh said:

    rcs1000 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    https://twitter.com/IanClarke41/status/872992448355729409

    Normal Lamb could hold onto Norfolk North.

    I'm personally very pleased for him. He is a good man, and was a good minister.
    as I said on the previous post. I share that opinion of Lamb. He's done a lot to promote the cause of mental health. more than any other politician I know.
    Clear personal vote, was going on every model.

    Well done Lamb.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    Boris holds Uxbridge
  • Bojo's majority halved to 5k
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    If Norman Lamb loses, that will be all the good Lib Dem coalition ministers gone.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    Blackley and Broughton
    Labour hold
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    Chameleon said:

    Scott_P said:

    @PaulBrandITV: BREAKING: Labour sources say will take Canterbury, which Julian Brazier has held since 1987.

    This is a large realignment.
    YouGov are doing so well, one starts to wonder about East Devon
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690
    Amazing to think Clegg and Farage are the same age.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Chameleon said:

    IDS safe.

    Bugger
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories almost win Bishop Auckland.

    Lab maj 502.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    Fuck, I live in a Labour constituency now
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    alex. said:

    Lab gain Bristol NW

    Very expected in any world where the Lab surge was even half real.

    Incredible places the LDs held they could go backwards now though.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Very sorry to see Clegg go.

    Its a brutal old game. History will judge Clegg kindly for the Coalition years.

    While not sorry to see one fewer SNP MP, Robertson often asked the best questions in PMQs - wonder who will replace him now?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    rcs1000 said:

    Chameleon said:

    Lib Dems being wiped out in England. Just Scottish party. SNP decline amazing. Labour growth incredible. Tories - Idiots.

    My £50 on LD sub 10 @ ~6/1 is looking good.
    Is it? They could end up on eight in Scotland, plus Twickenham...

    Just one more stuffs you...
    There's a real danger for them that the Conservatives steal their lunch in Scotland.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,389
    CLegg lost because Tories weren't willing to vote tactically for him unlike 2015
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Boris is on maneuvours in his speech, no mention of May.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,678
    It looks like the Tories are just... JUST going to make it.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,111

    Tory London meltdown. Is there a Tory voter left in London?

    Putney
  • Recount in Canterbury. Corbyn surge moment imminent.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    Tory London meltdown. Is there a Tory voter left in London?

    I'm here. I can tell you there are precious few of them.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Tory London meltdown. Is there a Tory voter left in London?


    Uxbridge.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    Pong said:

    Tories really need to find an offering for the young pretty sharpish, who seem to find no threat or fear in pacifism or socialism.

    Tuition fees back down to £3k.
    This is the dog that hasn't barked from either Osborne or Clegg yet.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    glw said:

    Chameleon said:

    glw said:

    Chameleon said:


    kle4 said:

    Part of me wonders if Corbyn and co might not prefer to fall slightly short, as they've galvanized the youth vote, but no way they could deliver on all they promised.

    Hopefully Con will see what he's done and offer some things to the youth vote in the coming GE.
    I SHALL SPELL IT OUT IN ALL CAPS FOR CCHQ. GRADUATE TAX, IT'S "FAIR" AND IT CAN BRING IN MORE MONEY.
    There's already a graduate tax. 9% extra tax on all income above £20k. A graduate tax would also do fuck all to get the youth vote onside when Lab are offering free tuition.
    What I mean is roll all university funding and expenses into the tax. Tuition, the grant, and whatever else is "free" up front, and if you go to university your taxcode is permanently marked for a supplementary tax.
    How does that differ in substance from a loan/repayment deal, except that there is no end to it? Oh and please tell me it won't be retrospective.
  • "BREAKING: Labour sources say will take Canterbury, which Julian Brazier has held since 1987."

    Isn't he an unreconstructed old-school Tory bigot? Or am I thinking of someone else.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,756

    Fuck, I live in a Labour constituency now

    Its still beautiful
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @britainelects: Labour GAIN Peterborough from Conservative.
    Stewart Jackson OUT. pic.twitter.com/mVTskrjmkx
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,485
    If I was to bet on the next tory leader (not that I can find odds at the moment) I'd go for George Freeman.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569

    Tory London meltdown. Is there a Tory voter left in London?

    Ian Duncan Smith hold
    Quiet man is back
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    edited June 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    Chameleon said:

    Lib Dems being wiped out in England. Just Scottish party. SNP decline amazing. Labour growth incredible. Tories - Idiots.

    My £50 on LD sub 10 @ ~6/1 is looking good.
    Is it? They could end up on eight in Scotland, plus Twickenham...

    Just one more stuffs you...
    Bath. Witney.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,139

    Mortimer said:

    Tories really need to find an offering for the young pretty sharpish, who seem to find no threat or fear in pacifism or socialism.

    Its houses.

    I've said it for years. We need to build MILLIONS of houses.
    I agree.
    Yes, but you're in infrastructure. Care to put a hard-hat on your head and a trowel in your hand? How good are you at bricklaying, as your position on Brexit sees rather inconsistent.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories increasing majorities against Labour in the Midlands.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Fuck, I live in a Labour constituency now

    I've lived in a Con one for years
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690

    If Norman Lamb loses, that will be all the good Lib Dem coalition ministers gone.

    He's held on.

    I would never have guessed that Clegg would lose and Lamb win.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414

    Tory London meltdown. Is there a Tory voter left in London?


    Uxbridge.
    Putney.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited June 2017
    AndyJS said:

    Tories almost win Bishop Auckland.

    Lab maj 502.

    Holy moly, thats unexpected (such a small majority that is).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,972
    Mortimer said:

    Tory London meltdown. Is there a Tory voter left in London?

    Putney
    Richmond Park, Uxbridge
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    alex. said:

    Lab gain Bristol NW

    I said even before this evening, Bristol was going to be prime Corbgasm, even if it didn't pay off elsewhere. The place is pure Corbynism.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,273
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm sorry Nick. You didn't deserve to lose. Sometimes doing the right thing doesn't pay.

    True. He did the right thing for the Country, and the wrong thing for his Party.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    No, not Charlotte Leslie.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576

    CLegg lost because Tories weren't willing to vote tactically for him unlike 2015

    Not even after the Mail told them to either.
    rcs1000 said:

    Amazing to think Clegg and Farage are the same age.

    For all the stress he's been under for years, Clegg's held up well!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,111
    edited June 2017
    AndyJS said:

    Tories almost win Bishop Auckland.

    Lab maj 502.

    Darn. Chris nearly managed it.
  • Wish I'd believed my own gut instinct when Lab were 40/1 to win it.

  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Tories gain East Renfrewshire and Walsall North but lose Canterbury.

    What is happening?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Never underestimate the Scottish Nationalists. They are gifting seats to the Tories in Scotland to keep them in office in Westminster... It's all part of the long-term independence plan.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Vince Cable back apparently
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,216
    spudgfsh said:

    rcs1000 said:

    spudgfsh said:

    https://twitter.com/IanClarke41/status/872992448355729409

    Normal Lamb could hold onto Norfolk North.

    I'm personally very pleased for him. He is a good man, and was a good minister.
    as I said on the previous post. I share that opinion of Lamb. He's done a lot to promote the cause of mental health. more than any other politician I know.
    Agreed.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    Sad to see Clegg go. All the quad are now gone.

    :lol::lol::lol:
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,531

    Tory London meltdown. Is there a Tory voter left in London?

    Um, me? :lol:
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    lab gain peterborough, yougov looking like prophets let alone pollsters
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Labour GAIN Peterborough from Conservative.
    Stewart Jackson OUT. pic.twitter.com/mVTskrjmkx

    Did he post here at one stage?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    HYUFD said:

    Mortimer said:

    Tory London meltdown. Is there a Tory voter left in London?

    Putney
    Richmond Park, Uxbridge
    Mornington Crescent.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    16% majority for Labour in Edgbaston.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,471
    Labour lose Walsall North
This discussion has been closed.