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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It looks like Mrs May’s UKIP firewall was as good a defence as

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  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCsarahsmith: Alex Salmond not looking very happy as he arrives at his count in Gordon

    Oh my heart aches... not.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144
    Chameleon said:

    Ben Gummer in Ipswich is gone.

    Poetic justice for the manifesto
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Cable for Clegg is no fair trade off. Cable spent the coalition years sniping on the sidelines, Clegg tried to make it work. Obviously any LD gain is good news, but still a shame.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,683
    Labour gain Glasgow NE from SNP
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCsarahsmith: Alex Salmond not looking very happy as he arrives at his count in Gordon

    Please let it be so - it may be petty, but as a strongly unionist man, he has haunted my nightmares for too long.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @alexmassie: Scottish Tory sources recanting their previous pessimism about Gordon. Now think Alex Salmond's seat is "tasty" and "looking good".
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Chameleon said:

    Ben Gummer in Ipswich is gone.

    Writer of the manifesto, apparently.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,894
    kle4 said:

    Huge vote for Cable- some locals really regretted kicking him out (plus Brexit effect)

    Heathrow.

    It's a mile closer than Richmond Park.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    Wow - another SLAB gain in Glasgow. One of the stories of the night
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    London seems to be voting only on Brexit. Vince Cable gets large majority
  • MimusMimus Posts: 56
    Tories lost a clutch of seats, majority slipping away.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    SNP continuing to lose seats.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Great win for SLab in Glasgow
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Glasgow NE goes red
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Ouch for David Winnick given all other Labour MPs are holding on
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    this is still all over the place.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,683
    edited June 2017
    SNP getting beaten now in the Central belt by Labour in some areas, not just by the Tories in rural Scotland and the posher suburbs
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,951
    Can anyone now doubt May's gone in the short- or medium-term ?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    glw said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    How does that differ in substance from a loan/repayment deal, except that there is no end to it? Oh and please tell me it won't be retrospective.

    Not retrospective, although I suppose an opt-in could be offered.

    Yes it would be unending, but for whatever reason a lot of people seem to think loan = bad, tax = good. So give it to them, and collect more money.
    It would just be another example of the older and middle-aged benefiting while the young get screwed with a higher tax rate. Significantly worse than no reform at all.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Scott_P said:

    @ZoraSuleman: Reported if Theresa May doesn't get a majority she will step down ... it depends by how much ... if not a large margin she'll stay for a bit

    She's holed below the waterline whatever now. Would be best for her if she just shuffled off quietly and quickly now.
    Sadly, and with much regret, I have to agree.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour holds B'ham Edgbaston yet again.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Lab hold Cambridge.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    edited June 2017
    Amber Augusta Rudd asked for the RECOUNT! She's a gonner. Hooray Hooray Hooray. Best result of the night for me!
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Con gain Copeland twice
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    Cable back - This night keeps getting worse....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,253
    OGH's lefty vote swap has worked then.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Con gain/hold Copeland
  • Very odd situation we seem to be heading for. PM who is essentially dead. Leader of the Opposition who is Lord of all he surveys yet leading a bunch of MPs who hate him. DUP strutting around like they own the bloody place. Surely this means another election isn't more than a few months away. Months of precious Brexit negotiation time.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Labour GAIN Ipswich.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    AndyJS said:

    Labour holds B'ham Edgbaston yet again.

    Bloody hell.

    I am staggered.

  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Cambridge stays Lab, not LD
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    Mortimer said:

    Tories really need to find an offering for the young pretty sharpish, who seem to find no threat or fear in pacifism or socialism.

    Its houses.

    I've said it for years. We need to build MILLIONS of houses.
    Osborne's economic strategy was based upon rising house prices and a massive wealth transfer from the young to the old.

    It was inevitable it would fail at some point.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,253
    AndyJS said:

    Stella Creasy gets 81% in Walthamstow.

    What a f*****g divided country we are now.

    Huge.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270

    Chameleon said:

    Ben Gummer in Ipswich is gone.

    Writer of the manifesto, apparently.
    No major loss then if he had major input in that shite document.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Labour GAIN Glasgow NE.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,318

    There are big rumours that Labour will take both Canterbury and Kensington??

    I think the Tories will surely will hold both.

    I don't think so. Both areas have high value property, we're getting smashed in these areas.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Clegg's lost.

    Sad

    hahahahahahahahaha

    Never forgave him after the Lib Dems offered an in/out referendum then he decided that such a thing was an abomination when it actually became democratically possible.

    Liberal DEMOCRATS??

    Fuck off, old boy. Fuck off.
    And perhaps the same should be said for you. Do you actually have a position on anything, aside from who can give you an (viagra assisted) erection ?

    I hope you, like Scrooge McDuck, enjoy your pile of money.
    You seem oddly discombobulated. I am drinking Amarone on a starlit balcony in Rome. I love Europe. Cheer up.
    Nah. I'm enjoying this for tonight. But you must admit that you're insulated from this, as your comment shows.

    I, and my family, are not.
    These are not the Endtimes. Corbyn is not going to be PM. It's gonna be a Tory minority govt, and much more likely to be Soft Brexit. Your family's prospects have improved.
    Yeh - you're probably right.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    Scott_P said:

    @ZoraSuleman: Reported if Theresa May doesn't get a majority she will step down ... it depends by how much ... if not a large margin she'll stay for a bit

    She's holed below the waterline whatever now. Would be best for her if she just shuffled off quietly and quickly now.
    Yep, she may put out a few feelers about staying on but I'm sure what she hears back will ensure she's standing in front of No.10 this afternoon stepping down.
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Tories keep getting good results
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144

    Con gain/hold Copeland

    Counts as a gain! :p
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    AndyJS said:

    Stella Creasy gets 81% in Walthamstow.

    What a f*****g divided country we are now.

    Great to hear. Love Stella Creasy. If I'd have been in Walthamstow, I'd have voted for her (despite Corbyn).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,683
    Ipswich
    Labour gain
    Ben Gummer out
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635

    OGH's lefty vote swap has worked then.

    Half of my centre-righty one hasn't. Awaiting other half in NE Derbyshire.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,683
    Watford
    Conservative hold
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,683
    Don Valley
    Labour hold
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    The Dementia Bomb has truly exploded
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,951
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Clegg's lost.

    Sad

    hahahahahahahahaha

    Never forgave him after the Lib Dems offered an in/out referendum then he decided that such a thing was an abomination when it actually became democratically possible.

    Liberal DEMOCRATS??

    Fuck off, old boy. Fuck off.
    And perhaps the same should be said for you. Do you actually have a position on anything, aside from who can give you an (viagra assisted) erection ?

    I hope you, like Scrooge McDuck, enjoy your pile of money.
    You seem oddly discombobulated. I am drinking Amarone on a starlit balcony in Rome. I love Europe. Cheer up.
    Nah. I'm enjoying this for tonight. But you must admit that you're insulated from this, as your comment shows.

    I, and my family, are not.
    These are not the Endtimes. Corbyn is not going to be PM. It's gonna be a Tory minority govt, and much more likely to be Soft Brexit. Your family's prospects have improved.
    No, they really haven't. Mrs J's job is very much international, and my minds f*cked.

    I'd love to meet up with you for a drink to discuss this, if you'd lower yourself to talk to the likes of me and the Mrs.

    There's a challenge.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,672

    Cable returning is not good news for the future of the LDs. He was a dreadful minister and not a team player.

    He might be a LD MP - but not a positive one.

    The team lost 40 seats. It's stupid to play with the team if they are kicking balls into their own goals.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,683
    Chingford and Woodford
    Conservative hold
    IDS back
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    jonny83 said:

    Chameleon said:

    Ben Gummer in Ipswich is gone.

    Writer of the manifesto, apparently.
    No major loss then if he had major input in that shite document.
    Actually fair point

    Copeland stays blue
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Caroline Flint HOLDS Don Valley.

    Tissue Price unlucky there.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JamieRoss7: An SNP source tells it's "likely" we're going to see Alex Salmond lose his seat tonight.
  • Labour GAIN Stroud. Was 5000 majority.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,683
    Coventry NW
    Labour hold
    Geoffrey Robertson back
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,234
    HYUFD said:

    Don Valley
    Labour hold

    Boo! But did hold Copeland
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    UNS has suffered a more brutal political murder than May will tomorrow morning.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    glw said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    How does that differ in substance from a loan/repayment deal, except that there is no end to it? Oh and please tell me it won't be retrospective.

    Not retrospective, although I suppose an opt-in could be offered.

    Yes it would be unending, but for whatever reason a lot of people seem to think loan = bad, tax = good. So give it to them, and collect more money.
    Andy Cooke did a great guest piece years back where he pointed out the NUS, who were calling at the time for a graduate tax with a cap for the total amount paid, were basically just asking for the student loan system they were campaigning against, under a different name...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    Can anyone now doubt May's gone in the short- or medium-term ?

    No. Either she's scraped a majority of less than a handful, or a notional one purely due to the Speaker and SF, or she's done worse than that.

    I thought she was a bit crap but would win comfortably, but looks like the voters really did not like what they saw. I did think her apparent popularity was inexplicable.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited June 2017
    Labour polled 55% in Birmingham Edgbaston, +10% on Gisela's latest score
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144

    Caroline Flint HOLDS Don Valley.

    Tissue Price unlucky there.

    Always good to have a PBer in Parliament, no matter the party! Better luck next time TP
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Scott_P said:

    @JamieRoss7: An SNP source tells it's "likely" we're going to see Alex Salmond lose his seat tonight.

    Tragic...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Scott_P said:

    @ZoraSuleman: Reported if Theresa May doesn't get a majority she will step down ... it depends by how much ... if not a large margin she'll stay for a bit

    She's holed below the waterline whatever now. Would be best for her if she just shuffled off quietly and quickly now.
    I expect that will be quietly made clear to her in the course of the next few hours,
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Stella Creasy should be at front bench. The fact she changed her look to look less attractive was a disgrace but understandable with the number of stalkers she got.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    How many deposits lib dems lost?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @nickeardleybbc: Hearing THREE votes in it in North East Fife
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,486
    Hello - I've just woken up.

    Was my prediction that Corbyn might make it correct?

    I'm guessing so from the headlines.

    Oh dear......
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    HYUFD said:

    Watford
    Conservative hold

    So we're still Tory then.
  • Jonathan said:

    Cable BIG win! Excellent!

    My lib dem canvass queen called it. None of you listened.
    we called it long ago
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,253

    Labour polled 55% in Birmingham Edgbaston, +10% on Gisela's latest score

    Oh, FFS.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour piles up a massive 47,213 votes in Bristol West.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    And the DUP hold East Belfast well enough.

    Interesting backstory. Back in 2010 when DUP leader and incumbent Peter Robinson was mired in a bit of trouble, the loyalist working classes were urged by their own 'leaders' to stick it to him as a reminder that he'd lost touch with the common man. Long became MP and knew exactly what got her over the line, loyalist housing estate votes.

    Fast forward 2017, those same loyalist leaders urged people not to vote Long, shes basically doing damage to the unionist cause. Long cries foul...terrible that paramilitary representatives suggest voting DUP...forgetting how they supported he in 2010

    Bearing in mind hard-core loyalist communities in Belfast have long had an uneasy relationship with the DUP and tend not to turn out, it was a fairly remarkable statement.

    Tough shit Naomi. You pissed on your electorate and they didn't forget.

  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    Eric Pickles not happy with the campaign clearly.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Spreads C315 L268 LD11 SNP31
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Big tory win in Clacton
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924

    Labour polled 55% in Birmingham Edgbaston, +10% on Gisela's latest score

    Lots of expensive houses in Edgbaston.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    Caroline Flint HOLDS Don Valley.

    Tissue Price unlucky there.

    Damn!
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Scott_P said:

    @nickeardleybbc: Hearing THREE votes in it in North East Fife

    Gosh.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Floater said:

    How many deposits lib dems lost?

    A but load.
    Scott_P said:

    @nickeardleybbc: Hearing THREE votes in it in North East Fife

    Come on LDs!!!
  • glwglw Posts: 10,006

    Andy Cooke did a great guest piece years back where he pointed out the NUS, who were calling at the time for a graduate tax with a cap for the total amount paid, were basically just asking for the student loan system they were campaigning against, under a different name...

    Yes, I want to give them some of what they want, but bring in more money.
  • DougieDougie Posts: 57
    I wonder what the vote shares of Daily Mail readers looks like tonight. If what we hear is correct then a lot of small c conservative voters stayed at home due to the dementia tax and also possibly middle class, middle aged parents voting for tuition fees to be abolished.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Labour gain Bristol North West
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,021
    spudgfsh said:
    I will take a Corbyn ascendancy for the joy that would be a salmond defeat.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    AndyJS said:

    Labour piles up a massive 47,213 votes in Bristol West.

    Will become the safest seat in the country? East Ham under threat?
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    spudgfsh said:
    But to LDs or Tories?!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Cyclefree said:

    Hello - I've just woken up.

    Was my prediction that Corbyn might make it correct?

    I'm guessing so from the headlines.

    Oh dear......

    It's looking slightly better for the Tories, but he might make it, yes, as there are some really odd results.
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    At what time will the Tories overtake labour
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Labour majority in Cambridge over 20%
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited June 2017
    Scott_P said:

    @nickeardleybbc: Hearing THREE votes in it in North East Fife


    Considering that there was only 4k in it at the start, it shows that the LDs may not have surged by as much as expected in Scotland.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Would have loved to have seen IDS go. Wasn't anywhere near to 'reborn' figure he was hyped to be post 2010 with the Centre for Policy Studies.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,318
    How the fuck did we lose in Ipswich?!?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Scott_P said:

    @JamieRoss7: An SNP source tells it's "likely" we're going to see Alex Salmond lose his seat tonight.

    To whom?
  • DearPBDearPB Posts: 439

    Scott_P said:

    @ZoraSuleman: Reported if Theresa May doesn't get a majority she will step down ... it depends by how much ... if not a large margin she'll stay for a bit

    She's holed below the waterline whatever now. Would be best for her if she just shuffled off quietly and quickly now.
    I expect that will be quietly made clear to her in the course of the next few hours,
    I think her husband will already have told her
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Who gets most votes/majority Jezza or Tess?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    MaxPB said:

    How the fuck did we lose in Ipswich?!?

    It's been a marginal in the last two elections at least
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Scott_P said:

    @JamieRoss7: An SNP source tells it's "likely" we're going to see Alex Salmond lose his seat tonight.

    oh dear.... snigger
  • OliverOliver Posts: 33
    Gummer's a goner, hahaha

  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Cyclefree said:

    Hello - I've just woken up.

    Was my prediction that Corbyn might make it correct?

    I'm guessing so from the headlines.

    Oh dear......

    No, it looks like Con majority is still on.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Mortimer said:

    AndyJS said:

    Labour holds B'ham Edgbaston yet again.

    Bloody hell.

    I am staggered.

    How are those generalisations about the Tory surge in the West Midlands working out? They did get Winnick's seat in possibly the only English gain of the night, but otherwise it seems a bit meh.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,951
    Labour gain Ipswich.

    FFS.
This discussion has been closed.