politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final poll, Ipsos MORI, has CON lead up 3 to 8% + latest b
Comments
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Caroline Flint is going to lose at the expense of Tissue Price I hopenunu said:
Is David Milliband going to Ashfield as well?AndreaParma_82 said:who are the big names most at risk?
Judging by twitter feed, I think Labour was worried for Jack Dromey. Lots of outside help went to Erdington.
Could De Piero be in danger in Ashfield given Midlands could be worse than average for Labour?0 -
East Devon update for anyone who cares.. Tories are clearly worried as a hell of a lot of posters seem to have appeared in the last couple of days. Judging from posts on her Facebook page a number of Claire's team are quietly confident, though doubt that applies to the candidate herself. I suspect the confidence is purely inspired by the YouGov model - no way do they have the machinery needed to judge it on telling returns etc.0
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To pencil or not to pencil, that is the question.
http://www.markpack.org.uk/143476/indelible-pencils/0 -
Also not true - didn't go to the entire membership - I haven't had it.kjohnw said:
i will take great pleasure in seeing paul mason getting upset tonight when (hopefully) we get a tory majorityFF43 said:Talking of which, those Tory images are positively Maoist
"Acclaim the great victory of Chairman May's revolutionary line !"
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https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/872799081806135297<0 -
I am unsure about this supposed call to members. I am a member and have had nothing so this idea that its the whole membership is questionable. Maybe a spoof. I see its addressed to Paul for example!kjohnw said:
i will take great pleasure in seeing paul mason getting upset tonight when (hopefully) we get a tory majorityFF43 said:Talking of which, those Tory images are positively Maoist
"Acclaim the great victory of Chairman May's revolutionary line !"
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https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/872799081806135297<0 -
Great initiative by Uber
https://twitter.com/scope/status/8724923634233794560 -
Returned to polling place with wife and daughter as she voted. Turnout still steady in Edinburgh East.0
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Maybe I've got yours as I've had 2 (despite the fact that I'm not a member...)peterbuss said:
I am unsure about this supposed call to members. I am a member and have had nothing so this idea that its the whole membership is questionable. Maybe a spoof. I see its addressed to Paul for example!kjohnw said:
i will take great pleasure in seeing paul mason getting upset tonight when (hopefully) we get a tory majorityFF43 said:Talking of which, those Tory images are positively Maoist
"Acclaim the great victory of Chairman May's revolutionary line !"
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https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/872799081806135297<0 -
Inexplicable.Chameleon said:0 -
Chameleon said:
Maybe I've got yours as I've had 2 (despite the fact that I'm not a member...)peterbuss said:
I am unsure about this supposed call to members. I am a member and have had nothing so this idea that its the whole membership is questionable. Maybe a spoof. I see its addressed to Paul for example!kjohnw said:
i will take great pleasure in seeing paul mason getting upset tonight when (hopefully) we get a tory majorityFF43 said:Talking of which, those Tory images are positively Maoist
"Acclaim the great victory of Chairman May's revolutionary line !"
-----
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/872799081806135297<
Great!0 -
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The only thing that could make a political career less appealing than it already is - the loser gets shot. Though sadly there are still quite a few nations that operate that system.AlastairMeeks said:0 -
Skunk is a terrible drug.KentRising said:
Inexplicable.Chameleon said:0 -
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Although one should remember that the blue rinse can be quite hipster if paired with appropriate tats and piercings.David_Evershed said:0 -
Surge pricing for the return home?calum said:Great initiative by Uber
https://twitter.com/scope/status/8724923634233794560 -
My great-granddad probably printed that!AlastairMeeks said:
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I'm told she has run a very negative campaign up there focusing on Tissue Price's murky history of having multiple PB screen names.Brom said:
Caroline Flint is going to lose at the expense of Tissue Price I hopenunu said:
Is David Milliband going to Ashfield as well?AndreaParma_82 said:who are the big names most at risk?
Judging by twitter feed, I think Labour was worried for Jack Dromey. Lots of outside help went to Erdington.
Could De Piero be in danger in Ashfield given Midlands could be worse than average for Labour?0 -
No one does it quite like you.Bobajob_PB said:
I'm told she has run a very negative campaign up there focusing on Tissue Price's murky history of having multiple PB screen names.Brom said:
Caroline Flint is going to lose at the expense of Tissue Price I hopenunu said:
Is David Milliband going to Ashfield as well?AndreaParma_82 said:who are the big names most at risk?
Judging by twitter feed, I think Labour was worried for Jack Dromey. Lots of outside help went to Erdington.
Could De Piero be in danger in Ashfield given Midlands could be worse than average for Labour?
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I have not received that e mail and I am getting CCHQ e mails all the timepeterbuss said:Chameleon said:
Maybe I've got yours as I've had 2 (despite the fact that I'm not a member...)peterbuss said:
I am unsure about this supposed call to members. I am a member and have had nothing so this idea that its the whole membership is questionable. Maybe a spoof. I see its addressed to Paul for example!kjohnw said:
i will take great pleasure in seeing paul mason getting upset tonight when (hopefully) we get a tory majorityFF43 said:Talking of which, those Tory images are positively Maoist
"Acclaim the great victory of Chairman May's revolutionary line !"
-----
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/872799081806135297<
Great!0 -
What's really silly is that Ladbrokes max politics payout is apparently 250k, so this punter basically got a 249/1 price for something that's about as likely as Elvis for next President.KentRising said:
Inexplicable.Chameleon said:0 -
Saw a young fella walk past my house today.
Significance????-1 -
Erm ... hang on ... isn't this the UK rather than the US? And that was a virtual 2-horse race, whereas here we have viable 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th parties some of whom are particularly strong in regions e.g. the SNP in Scotland, PC in Wales and the Unionists in Northern Ireland.nunu said:If May is not crap then she really ought to beat Trump's 46%.....
I'm all for some wild pre-exit poll commentary mind you
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Just tried and it told me to check back after 11pm to get constituency declarations.Scott_P said:FrancisUrquhart said:And the reply will be....The weather in Barecelona is 25o C....Try it again...Spotify playing Back in Black, ACDC...
I actually have one that I use to turn the lights on and off, and I just discovered I have been using the wrong syntax
If I say "turns the lights on", half the time it turns them off
It works better if I say "turn on the lights"0 -
dyedwoolie said:
Worth remembering clerks will often report turnout as busy because they are the same people that sit there for Local elections getting bored. GE turnout is always busy in comparison.
I can't think of a single General Election when turnout has been reported as 'crap.' We get this every time.0 -
Has anyone mentioned the final Scottish Panelbase poll?
https://twitter.com/PanelbaseMD/status/8727581736980766720 -
Only if the surge is real. He has had a good campaign, he's looked and sounded better, but if it doesn't amount to anything, that is that.Jonathan said:TGOHF said:
But whatever happens, Corbyn has definitely surprised and impressed this past month. Churlish to pretend otherwise.
Now, I do think Labour will end up in the mid 30s, which is impressive, but if they were to get high 20s, then he hasn't really impressed at all - he just looked like he was.0 -
Comey is killing Trump....0
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It's just a default response, like when someone asks you how you are, and you reply "fine" no matter what.JennyFreeman said:dyedwoolie said:Worth remembering clerks will often report turnout as busy because they are the same people that sit there for Local elections getting bored. GE turnout is always busy in comparison.
I can't think of a single General Election when turnout has been reported as 'crap.' We get this every time.0 -
Low SNP considering poor showing for the LDs on that model.AlastairMeeks said:Lord Ashcroft is not at the squeaky bum end of the Conservative spectrum:
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/8728139466963312640 -
Presumably sent to those that opted in to certain email marketing. Political parties can get into trouble if they don't follow the rules. I believe Better Together (Scottish independence referendum) were fined for this.peterbuss said:
I am unsure about this supposed call to members. I am a member and have had nothing so this idea that its the whole membership is questionable. Maybe a spoof. I see its addressed to Paul for example!kjohnw said:
i will take great pleasure in seeing paul mason getting upset tonight when (hopefully) we get a tory majorityFF43 said:Talking of which, those Tory images are positively Maoist
"Acclaim the great victory of Chairman May's revolutionary line !"
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https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/872799081806135297<0 -
Sounds like one of those football managers who talk about % possession and no of corners when they lose 3-0.kle4 said:
Only if the surge is real. He has had a good campaign, he's looked and sounded better, but if it doesn't amount to anything, that is that.Jonathan said:TGOHF said:
But whatever happens, Corbyn has definitely surprised and impressed this past month. Churlish to pretend otherwise.
Now, I do think Labour will end up in the mid 30s, which is impressive, but if they were to get high 20s, then he hasn't really impressed at all - he just looked like he was.0 -
Just ignore it.DanSmith said:
Who is that good/bad for?rottenborough said:
Turnout is worse than the tealeaves.
It has been rubbish over and over again in the last five votes and still people try and read into it.0 -
My wallet hopes so. Good luck to him, but it's tough.Brom said:
Caroline Flint is going to lose at the expense of Tissue Price I hopenunu said:
Is David Milliband going to Ashfield as well?AndreaParma_82 said:who are the big names most at risk?
Judging by twitter feed, I think Labour was worried for Jack Dromey. Lots of outside help went to Erdington.
Could De Piero be in danger in Ashfield given Midlands could be worse than average for Labour?0 -
I'm so excited it's unbelieveable. Presently at work - getting nothing done (well... is reading PB considered productive?).
Leave at 5pm - home via the shops to buy pizza, crisps and other snacks. No booze, I don't drink.
Home - daughter to bed - then off to an all night election 'party' at a friends house. Six of us. An unrepentant Kipper, a true Thatcherite blue, a 'wet' conservative, one Blairite Labour, one Corbyn Labour and myself... whatever I am (probably wet blue).
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I don't know about the youth vote but all the 60plus people I know in this Dorset town are voting Lib Dem, Green or Labour. It could be that I don't know many Tories or it could be that May is so mediocre. Even if she wins a majority she has lost the battle.0
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Sums me up perfectlyTheValiant said:I'm so excited it's unbelieveable. Presently at work - getting nothing done (well... is reading PB considered productive?).
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Wow, politics really has gotten brutal over there since we stopped paying attention due to the GE.FrancisUrquhart said:Comey is killing Trump....
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I get many emails from the Conservatives. Many.FF43 said:
Presumably sent to those that opted in to certain email marketing. Political parties can get into trouble if they don't follow the rules. I believe Better Together (Scottish independence referendum) were fined for this.peterbuss said:
I am unsure about this supposed call to members. I am a member and have had nothing so this idea that its the whole membership is questionable. Maybe a spoof. I see its addressed to Paul for example!kjohnw said:
i will take great pleasure in seeing paul mason getting upset tonight when (hopefully) we get a tory majorityFF43 said:Talking of which, those Tory images are positively Maoist
"Acclaim the great victory of Chairman May's revolutionary line !"
-----
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/872799081806135297<
I didn't get this one.
There seems to be a real lack of understanding about how sophisticated it is possible to be with email marketing from people (Paul Mason), who ought to know better. Targeted messaging wins elections these days and the Tories seem to be good at it.0 -
Not if it is a landslide - at worst, in that case, she will find it harder to run again in 2022, if she was even intending to.roserees64 said:I don't know about the youth vote but all the 60plus people I know in this Dorset town are voting Lib Dem, Green or Labour. It could be that I don't know many Tories or it could be that May is so mediocre. Even if she wins a majority she has lost the battle.
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Anecdotally, student turnout in Canterbury is up on 2015. But whether that will be enough is the big question for the seat. Would guess somewhere between Con hold by 5,000 (majority halved) or Labour 3,000.Pulpstar said:
We're fucked. Buy tinned food.Carolus_Rex said:
Oh God, here we go again.Brom said:The only pictures of youngsters in polling queues I have seen have been at UEA, Wandsworth and duh duh duh... Canterbury!*
All right, I give up. Labour are nailed on to win Canterbury.0 -
It all just kicked off in my office, a Corbynista became rude an aggressive (and had to eventually be taken to one side) when someone else questioned Corbyn's ability to negotiate Brexit.
The aftermath lead to a few first time Tories giving away who they voted for. If the office is anything to go by then some surprising Labour supporters over 40 decided to vote May to stop Corbyn.0 -
As it was probably the marketing intern who placed the bet, I dare say he already knew.rottenborough said:0 -
Hell hath no fury like a fired FBI director scorned?FrancisUrquhart said:Comey is killing Trump....
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Anecdote - when I voted there were the normal number of people in the polling station. It was impossible to work out which way it was going. It being a secret ballot and all that.0
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Churchill was saying Labour would be setting up some kind of Gestapo and other moderate statesmanlike things like that.AlastairMeeks said:
When people talk about how more high brow and civilised things were back in the day they are talking shite hen.0 -
How's your popcorn supply?ChaosOdin said:It all just kicked off in my office, a Corbynista became rude an aggressive (and had to eventually be taken to one side) when someone else questioned Corbyn's ability to negotiate Brexit.
The aftermath lead to a few first time Tories giving away who they voted for. If the office is anything to go by then some surprising Labour supporters over 40 decided to vote May to stop Corbyn.0 -
Tory Seats declining on the spreads .... currently 357 - 362 with Sporting.0
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Surely not wise of him to tell the youngsters that it's in the bag and they don't need to vote?dyedwoolie said:
Tories trying to turn a slaughter into a routrottenborough said:0 -
And now Comey is blasting NYT reporting on national security issues...
Words to the effect those that know what is going on don't go around telling people.0 -
I did like the Express headline- Vote for May. No drama, no messing about, no nothing, just 'please do this'.0
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The very definition of someone not to piss off is someone whose lifetime's work has been to know where the bodies were buried.GIN1138 said:
Hell hath no fury like a fired FBI director scorned?FrancisUrquhart said:Comey is killing Trump....
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Could it be hedging driving the price down? Too much gin at lunchtime?peter_from_putney said:Tory Seats declining on the spreads .... currently 357 - 362 with Sporting.
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my Moray bet looking good. Maybe I should go for Cons Stirling as well. I believe there will be differential turnout with rich turning staying high and poor falling.AlastairMeeks said:Has anyone mentioned the final Scottish Panelbase poll?
https://twitter.com/PanelbaseMD/status/8727581736980766720 -
My VP was complaining this morning that she was woken up a 6am by someone delivering a "Good morning to get Vince back" leafletrottenborough said:
As a youngster, taught the basics of campaigning by my activist mother, we were told no campaigning on the day - other than a 'Good morning' leaflet delivered before 7am.RobinWiggs said:
Any campaigning is legal today, except within the confines of a polling station.mwadams said:That's weird. The Greens are campaigning with plackards in Cambridge City Centre. I didn't think that was allowed on polling day?
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Popped out to the shops and posted a letter in the post box on the way . Just before me an old biddy put in the post box her completed postal ballot paper/envelopes . I did not have the heart to tell her that it will arrive too late to be counted .0
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Here's where we were at a similar time in 2015peter_from_putney said:Tory Seats declining on the spreads .... currently 357 - 362 with Sporting.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/5961236416722616320 -
I'm not convinced that high or low turnout necessarily benefits anybody.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Just ignore it.DanSmith said:
Who is that good/bad for?rottenborough said:
Turnout is worse than the tealeaves.
It has been rubbish over and over again in the last five votes and still people try and read into it.
1979, 1987 and 1992 were high turnout elections, delivering varying Conservative leads; 2001 was a very low turnout election, which delivered a Labour landslide.0 -
When I was delivering Good Morning leaflets in Liverpool in the 80s we told NOT to post a leaflet through someone's door if we'd just accidentally kicked over their milk bottles.Charles said:
My VP was complaining this morning that she was woken up a 6am by someone delivering a "Good morning to get Vince back" leafletrottenborough said:
As a youngster, taught the basics of campaigning by my activist mother, we were told no campaigning on the day - other than a 'Good morning' leaflet delivered before 7am.RobinWiggs said:
Any campaigning is legal today, except within the confines of a polling station.mwadams said:That's weird. The Greens are campaigning with plackards in Cambridge City Centre. I didn't think that was allowed on polling day?
Not something you have to worry about today.0 -
Don't worry... there are millions more.MarkSenior said:Popped out to the shops and posted a letter in the post box on the way . Just before me an old biddy put in the post box her completed postal ballot paper/envelopes . I did not have the heart to tell her that it will arrive too late to be counted .
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Well he can be glad you don't live in his constituencyGIN1138 said: 0 -
One less less Tory b*stard voting eh Mark?MarkSenior said:Popped out to the shops and posted a letter in the post box on the way . Just before me an old biddy put in the post box her completed postal ballot paper/envelopes . I did not have the heart to tell her that it will arrive too late to be counted .
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The trouble is it's not even absolute turnout that's important, but the variation between different groups. I can believe that overall turnout will be low (look at how many people here have abstained/spoiled their ballot papers), but of course that doesn't mean it can't be relatively higher among some groups.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Just ignore it.DanSmith said:
Who is that good/bad for?rottenborough said:
Turnout is worse than the tealeaves.
It has been rubbish over and over again in the last five votes and still people try and read into it.0 -
@ScottyNational: News: Fun had as people take their pets along as they vote - such as dogs, cats, and, for SNP candidates, a Scottish Green Party member0
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Au contraire – I am very bad at itRobD said:
No one does it quite like you.Bobajob_PB said:
I'm told she has run a very negative campaign up there focusing on Tissue Price's murky history of having multiple PB screen names.Brom said:
Caroline Flint is going to lose at the expense of Tissue Price I hopenunu said:
Is David Milliband going to Ashfield as well?AndreaParma_82 said:who are the big names most at risk?
Judging by twitter feed, I think Labour was worried for Jack Dromey. Lots of outside help went to Erdington.
Could De Piero be in danger in Ashfield given Midlands could be worse than average for Labour? 0 -
No it was a friend of Rosa's in Dorset.GIN1138 said:
One less less Tory b*stard voting eh Mark?MarkSenior said:Popped out to the shops and posted a letter in the post box on the way . Just before me an old biddy put in the post box her completed postal ballot paper/envelopes . I did not have the heart to tell her that it will arrive too late to be counted .
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In 2015 it took 427 results for the Tories to take the lead in the popular vote. This occurred at about 5:45am. The shares at that point were Con 33.95%, Lab 33.89%, UKIP 12.09%, LD 7.59%, SNP 7.40%, Greens 3.45%.
Another factoid I posted last night: after exactly half the results were in (325), the swing from Con to Lab was 0.00%. (Or from Lab to Con).0 -
Shadsy said he would have paid out the £1m.Andrew said:
What's really silly is that Ladbrokes max politics payout is apparently 250k, so this punter basically got a 249/1 price for something that's about as likely as Elvis for next President.KentRising said:
Inexplicable.Chameleon said:
(yes he said "would've" - WHAT DOES HE KNOW????)0 -
I have no idea how she voted , she may have known Lloyd George and voted Liberal !!!GIN1138 said:
One less less Tory b*stard voting eh Mark?MarkSenior said:Popped out to the shops and posted a letter in the post box on the way . Just before me an old biddy put in the post box her completed postal ballot paper/envelopes . I did not have the heart to tell her that it will arrive too late to be counted .
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Good to know - such talk irks me, and it'd be even worse if it is true!Alistair said:
Churchill was saying Labour would be setting up some kind of Gestapo and other moderate statesmanlike things like that.AlastairMeeks said:
When people talk about how more high brow and civilised things were back in the day they are talking shite hen.0 -
In Tower Hamlets alone ....RobD said:
Don't worry... there are millions more.MarkSenior said:Popped out to the shops and posted a letter in the post box on the way . Just before me an old biddy put in the post box her completed postal ballot paper/envelopes . I did not have the heart to tell her that it will arrive too late to be counted .
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That's very generous of him.TOPPING said:
Shadsy said he would have paid out the £1m.Andrew said:
What's really silly is that Ladbrokes max politics payout is apparently 250k, so this punter basically got a 249/1 price for something that's about as likely as Elvis for next President.KentRising said:
Inexplicable.Chameleon said:
(yes he said "would've" - WHAT DOES HE KNOW????)0 -
That Ladbrokes bet makes sense as a cheapish marketing ploy from the Greens or, more likely, one of their donors. Only alternative is the small chance that the lads from the K Foundation have come into some money again.0
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You've just reminded me of my experience of telling in Tower Hamlets in 2010 - not a happy one!JackW said:
In Tower Hamlets alone ....RobD said:
Don't worry... there are millions more.MarkSenior said:Popped out to the shops and posted a letter in the post box on the way . Just before me an old biddy put in the post box her completed postal ballot paper/envelopes . I did not have the heart to tell her that it will arrive too late to be counted .
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https://twitter.com/ThePoke/status/872771438025084931Scott_P said:@ScottyNational: News: Fun had as people take their pets along as they vote - such as dogs, cats, and, for SNP candidates, a Scottish Green Party member
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The bet is for "most seats" not for an overall majority. It could in theory be won on a tiny number, if the other seats were scattered between enough other parties.Charles said:0 -
Cant you just shout "LIGHTS"?Scott_P said:FrancisUrquhart said:And the reply will be....The weather in Barecelona is 25o C....Try it again...Spotify playing Back in Black, ACDC...
I actually have one that I use to turn the lights on and off, and I just discovered I have been using the wrong syntax
If I say "turns the lights on", half the time it turns them off
It works better if I say "turn on the lights"0 -
Manchester Withington CLP is sending activists to Bury South.0
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There's a nice electoral map of the country in today's print version of The Times.0
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Very possible. Mrs May is campaigning on a platform of doing something for the JAMMs.RaRaRasputin said:That Ladbrokes makes sense as a cheapish marketing ploy from the Greens or, more likely, one of their donors. Only alternative is the small chance that the lads from the K Foundation have come into some money again.
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...CAMERA....ACTION...isam said:
Cant you just shout "LIGHTS"?Scott_P said:FrancisUrquhart said:And the reply will be....The weather in Barecelona is 25o C....Try it again...Spotify playing Back in Black, ACDC...
I actually have one that I use to turn the lights on and off, and I just discovered I have been using the wrong syntax
If I say "turns the lights on", half the time it turns them off
It works better if I say "turn on the lights"0 -
I am on their email list as a donor, I have received tons of emails including at least 5-6 today but haven't seen this this oneFF43 said:
Presumably sent to those that opted in to certain email marketing. Political parties can get into trouble if they don't follow the rules. I believe Better Together (Scottish independence referendum) were fined for this.peterbuss said:
I am unsure about this supposed call to members. I am a member and have had nothing so this idea that its the whole membership is questionable. Maybe a spoof. I see its addressed to Paul for example!kjohnw said:
i will take great pleasure in seeing paul mason getting upset tonight when (hopefully) we get a tory majorityFF43 said:Talking of which, those Tory images are positively Maoist
"Acclaim the great victory of Chairman May's revolutionary line !"
-----
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/872799081806135297<
I think Paul Mason has been losing it a bit in the last few days, even if is genuine, does he seriously take the contents at face value rather than just a get out the vote ploy?0 -
Yeah it's the turnout of the youth which people are interested in and some are worried about.Chris said:
The trouble is it's not even absolute turnout that's important, but the variation between different groups. I can believe that overall turnout will be low (look at how many people here have abstained/spoiled their ballot papers), but of course that doesn't mean it can't be relatively higher among some groups.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Just ignore it.DanSmith said:
Who is that good/bad for?rottenborough said:
Turnout is worse than the tealeaves.
It has been rubbish over and over again in the last five votes and still people try and read into it.0 -
Or just get up and throw the bloody switch?isam said:
Cant you just shout "LIGHTS"?Scott_P said:FrancisUrquhart said:And the reply will be....The weather in Barecelona is 25o C....Try it again...Spotify playing Back in Black, ACDC...
I actually have one that I use to turn the lights on and off, and I just discovered I have been using the wrong syntax
If I say "turns the lights on", half the time it turns them off
It works better if I say "turn on the lights"0 -
Word association...FrancisUrquhart said:
...CAMERA....ACTION...isam said:
Cant you just shout "LIGHTS"?Scott_P said:FrancisUrquhart said:And the reply will be....The weather in Barecelona is 25o C....Try it again...Spotify playing Back in Black, ACDC...
I actually have one that I use to turn the lights on and off, and I just discovered I have been using the wrong syntax
If I say "turns the lights on", half the time it turns them off
It works better if I say "turn on the lights"0 -
Six hours to go!0
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Well, the two party swing ended up being zero (rounded to the nearest %) anyway.AndyJS said:In 2015 it took 427 results for the Tories to take the lead in the popular vote. This occurred at about 5:45am. The shares at that point were Con 33.95%, Lab 33.89%, UKIP 12.09%, LD 7.59%, SNP 7.40%, Greens 3.45%.
Another factoid I posted last night: after exactly half the results were in (325), the swing from Con to Lab was 0.00%. (Or from Lab to Con).0
