East Devon update for anyone who cares.. Tories are clearly worried as a hell of a lot of posters seem to have appeared in the last couple of days. Judging from posts on her Facebook page a number of Claire's team are quietly confident, though doubt that applies to the candidate herself. I suspect the confidence is purely inspired by the YouGov model - no way do they have the machinery needed to judge it on telling returns etc.
i will take great pleasure in seeing paul mason getting upset tonight when (hopefully) we get a tory majority
I am unsure about this supposed call to members. I am a member and have had nothing so this idea that its the whole membership is questionable. Maybe a spoof. I see its addressed to Paul for example!
i will take great pleasure in seeing paul mason getting upset tonight when (hopefully) we get a tory majority
I am unsure about this supposed call to members. I am a member and have had nothing so this idea that its the whole membership is questionable. Maybe a spoof. I see its addressed to Paul for example!
Maybe I've got yours as I've had 2 (despite the fact that I'm not a member...)
i will take great pleasure in seeing paul mason getting upset tonight when (hopefully) we get a tory majority
I am unsure about this supposed call to members. I am a member and have had nothing so this idea that its the whole membership is questionable. Maybe a spoof. I see its addressed to Paul for example!
Maybe I've got yours as I've had 2 (despite the fact that I'm not a member...)
The only thing that could make a political career less appealing than it already is - the loser gets shot. Though sadly there are still quite a few nations that operate that system.
i will take great pleasure in seeing paul mason getting upset tonight when (hopefully) we get a tory majority
I am unsure about this supposed call to members. I am a member and have had nothing so this idea that its the whole membership is questionable. Maybe a spoof. I see its addressed to Paul for example!
Maybe I've got yours as I've had 2 (despite the fact that I'm not a member...)
Great!
I have not received that e mail and I am getting CCHQ e mails all the time
What's really silly is that Ladbrokes max politics payout is apparently 250k, so this punter basically got a 249/1 price for something that's about as likely as Elvis for next President.
If May is not crap then she really ought to beat Trump's 46%.....
Erm ... hang on ... isn't this the UK rather than the US? And that was a virtual 2-horse race, whereas here we have viable 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th parties some of whom are particularly strong in regions e.g. the SNP in Scotland, PC in Wales and the Unionists in Northern Ireland.
I'm all for some wild pre-exit poll commentary mind you
Worth remembering clerks will often report turnout as busy because they are the same people that sit there for Local elections getting bored. GE turnout is always busy in comparison.
I can't think of a single General Election when turnout has been reported as 'crap.' We get this every time.
"been more impressive" is completely subjective and irrelevant come 10pm.
I wonder how impressive he'll seem if, as seems likely, he gets fewer seats than Michael Foot.
Moral victories are more important to some.
But whatever happens, Corbyn has definitely surprised and impressed this past month. Churlish to pretend otherwise.
Only if the surge is real. He has had a good campaign, he's looked and sounded better, but if it doesn't amount to anything, that is that.
Now, I do think Labour will end up in the mid 30s, which is impressive, but if they were to get high 20s, then he hasn't really impressed at all - he just looked like he was.
Worth remembering clerks will often report turnout as busy because they are the same people that sit there for Local elections getting bored. GE turnout is always busy in comparison.
I can't think of a single General Election when turnout has been reported as 'crap.' We get this every time.
It's just a default response, like when someone asks you how you are, and you reply "fine" no matter what.
i will take great pleasure in seeing paul mason getting upset tonight when (hopefully) we get a tory majority
I am unsure about this supposed call to members. I am a member and have had nothing so this idea that its the whole membership is questionable. Maybe a spoof. I see its addressed to Paul for example!
Presumably sent to those that opted in to certain email marketing. Political parties can get into trouble if they don't follow the rules. I believe Better Together (Scottish independence referendum) were fined for this.
"been more impressive" is completely subjective and irrelevant come 10pm.
I wonder how impressive he'll seem if, as seems likely, he gets fewer seats than Michael Foot.
Moral victories are more important to some.
But whatever happens, Corbyn has definitely surprised and impressed this past month. Churlish to pretend otherwise.
Only if the surge is real. He has had a good campaign, he's looked and sounded better, but if it doesn't amount to anything, that is that.
Now, I do think Labour will end up in the mid 30s, which is impressive, but if they were to get high 20s, then he hasn't really impressed at all - he just looked like he was.
Sounds like one of those football managers who talk about % possession and no of corners when they lose 3-0.
I'm so excited it's unbelieveable. Presently at work - getting nothing done (well... is reading PB considered productive?).
Leave at 5pm - home via the shops to buy pizza, crisps and other snacks. No booze, I don't drink. Home - daughter to bed - then off to an all night election 'party' at a friends house. Six of us. An unrepentant Kipper, a true Thatcherite blue, a 'wet' conservative, one Blairite Labour, one Corbyn Labour and myself... whatever I am (probably wet blue).
I don't know about the youth vote but all the 60plus people I know in this Dorset town are voting Lib Dem, Green or Labour. It could be that I don't know many Tories or it could be that May is so mediocre. Even if she wins a majority she has lost the battle.
i will take great pleasure in seeing paul mason getting upset tonight when (hopefully) we get a tory majority
I am unsure about this supposed call to members. I am a member and have had nothing so this idea that its the whole membership is questionable. Maybe a spoof. I see its addressed to Paul for example!
Presumably sent to those that opted in to certain email marketing. Political parties can get into trouble if they don't follow the rules. I believe Better Together (Scottish independence referendum) were fined for this.
I get many emails from the Conservatives. Many.
I didn't get this one.
There seems to be a real lack of understanding about how sophisticated it is possible to be with email marketing from people (Paul Mason), who ought to know better. Targeted messaging wins elections these days and the Tories seem to be good at it.
I don't know about the youth vote but all the 60plus people I know in this Dorset town are voting Lib Dem, Green or Labour. It could be that I don't know many Tories or it could be that May is so mediocre. Even if she wins a majority she has lost the battle.
Not if it is a landslide - at worst, in that case, she will find it harder to run again in 2022, if she was even intending to.
The only pictures of youngsters in polling queues I have seen have been at UEA, Wandsworth and duh duh duh... Canterbury!*
Oh God, here we go again.
All right, I give up. Labour are nailed on to win Canterbury.
We're fucked. Buy tinned food.
Anecdotally, student turnout in Canterbury is up on 2015. But whether that will be enough is the big question for the seat. Would guess somewhere between Con hold by 5,000 (majority halved) or Labour 3,000.
It all just kicked off in my office, a Corbynista became rude an aggressive (and had to eventually be taken to one side) when someone else questioned Corbyn's ability to negotiate Brexit.
The aftermath lead to a few first time Tories giving away who they voted for. If the office is anything to go by then some surprising Labour supporters over 40 decided to vote May to stop Corbyn.
Anecdote - when I voted there were the normal number of people in the polling station. It was impossible to work out which way it was going. It being a secret ballot and all that.
It all just kicked off in my office, a Corbynista became rude an aggressive (and had to eventually be taken to one side) when someone else questioned Corbyn's ability to negotiate Brexit.
The aftermath lead to a few first time Tories giving away who they voted for. If the office is anything to go by then some surprising Labour supporters over 40 decided to vote May to stop Corbyn.
my Moray bet looking good. Maybe I should go for Cons Stirling as well. I believe there will be differential turnout with rich turning staying high and poor falling.
That's weird. The Greens are campaigning with plackards in Cambridge City Centre. I didn't think that was allowed on polling day?
Any campaigning is legal today, except within the confines of a polling station.
As a youngster, taught the basics of campaigning by my activist mother, we were told no campaigning on the day - other than a 'Good morning' leaflet delivered before 7am.
My VP was complaining this morning that she was woken up a 6am by someone delivering a "Good morning to get Vince back" leaflet
Popped out to the shops and posted a letter in the post box on the way . Just before me an old biddy put in the post box her completed postal ballot paper/envelopes . I did not have the heart to tell her that it will arrive too late to be counted .
It has been rubbish over and over again in the last five votes and still people try and read into it.
I'm not convinced that high or low turnout necessarily benefits anybody.
1979, 1987 and 1992 were high turnout elections, delivering varying Conservative leads; 2001 was a very low turnout election, which delivered a Labour landslide.
That's weird. The Greens are campaigning with plackards in Cambridge City Centre. I didn't think that was allowed on polling day?
Any campaigning is legal today, except within the confines of a polling station.
As a youngster, taught the basics of campaigning by my activist mother, we were told no campaigning on the day - other than a 'Good morning' leaflet delivered before 7am.
My VP was complaining this morning that she was woken up a 6am by someone delivering a "Good morning to get Vince back" leaflet
When I was delivering Good Morning leaflets in Liverpool in the 80s we told NOT to post a leaflet through someone's door if we'd just accidentally kicked over their milk bottles.
Popped out to the shops and posted a letter in the post box on the way . Just before me an old biddy put in the post box her completed postal ballot paper/envelopes . I did not have the heart to tell her that it will arrive too late to be counted .
Popped out to the shops and posted a letter in the post box on the way . Just before me an old biddy put in the post box her completed postal ballot paper/envelopes . I did not have the heart to tell her that it will arrive too late to be counted .
It has been rubbish over and over again in the last five votes and still people try and read into it.
The trouble is it's not even absolute turnout that's important, but the variation between different groups. I can believe that overall turnout will be low (look at how many people here have abstained/spoiled their ballot papers), but of course that doesn't mean it can't be relatively higher among some groups.
@ScottyNational: News: Fun had as people take their pets along as they vote - such as dogs, cats, and, for SNP candidates, a Scottish Green Party member
Popped out to the shops and posted a letter in the post box on the way . Just before me an old biddy put in the post box her completed postal ballot paper/envelopes . I did not have the heart to tell her that it will arrive too late to be counted .
In 2015 it took 427 results for the Tories to take the lead in the popular vote. This occurred at about 5:45am. The shares at that point were Con 33.95%, Lab 33.89%, UKIP 12.09%, LD 7.59%, SNP 7.40%, Greens 3.45%.
Another factoid I posted last night: after exactly half the results were in (325), the swing from Con to Lab was 0.00%. (Or from Lab to Con).
What's really silly is that Ladbrokes max politics payout is apparently 250k, so this punter basically got a 249/1 price for something that's about as likely as Elvis for next President.
Popped out to the shops and posted a letter in the post box on the way . Just before me an old biddy put in the post box her completed postal ballot paper/envelopes . I did not have the heart to tell her that it will arrive too late to be counted .
One less less Tory b*stard voting eh Mark?
I have no idea how she voted , she may have known Lloyd George and voted Liberal !!!
Popped out to the shops and posted a letter in the post box on the way . Just before me an old biddy put in the post box her completed postal ballot paper/envelopes . I did not have the heart to tell her that it will arrive too late to be counted .
What's really silly is that Ladbrokes max politics payout is apparently 250k, so this punter basically got a 249/1 price for something that's about as likely as Elvis for next President.
That Ladbrokes bet makes sense as a cheapish marketing ploy from the Greens or, more likely, one of their donors. Only alternative is the small chance that the lads from the K Foundation have come into some money again.
Popped out to the shops and posted a letter in the post box on the way . Just before me an old biddy put in the post box her completed postal ballot paper/envelopes . I did not have the heart to tell her that it will arrive too late to be counted .
Don't worry... there are millions more.
In Tower Hamlets alone ....
You've just reminded me of my experience of telling in Tower Hamlets in 2010 - not a happy one!
@ScottyNational: News: Fun had as people take their pets along as they vote - such as dogs, cats, and, for SNP candidates, a Scottish Green Party member
(Is it legal for bookies to take a bet which *cannot* be won?)
The bet is for "most seats" not for an overall majority. It could in theory be won on a tiny number, if the other seats were scattered between enough other parties.
That Ladbrokes makes sense as a cheapish marketing ploy from the Greens or, more likely, one of their donors. Only alternative is the small chance that the lads from the K Foundation have come into some money again.
Very possible. Mrs May is campaigning on a platform of doing something for the JAMMs.
i will take great pleasure in seeing paul mason getting upset tonight when (hopefully) we get a tory majority
I am unsure about this supposed call to members. I am a member and have had nothing so this idea that its the whole membership is questionable. Maybe a spoof. I see its addressed to Paul for example!
Presumably sent to those that opted in to certain email marketing. Political parties can get into trouble if they don't follow the rules. I believe Better Together (Scottish independence referendum) were fined for this.
I am on their email list as a donor, I have received tons of emails including at least 5-6 today but haven't seen this this one
I think Paul Mason has been losing it a bit in the last few days, even if is genuine, does he seriously take the contents at face value rather than just a get out the vote ploy?
It has been rubbish over and over again in the last five votes and still people try and read into it.
The trouble is it's not even absolute turnout that's important, but the variation between different groups. I can believe that overall turnout will be low (look at how many people here have abstained/spoiled their ballot papers), but of course that doesn't mean it can't be relatively higher among some groups.
Yeah it's the turnout of the youth which people are interested in and some are worried about.
In 2015 it took 427 results for the Tories to take the lead in the popular vote. This occurred at about 5:45am. The shares at that point were Con 33.95%, Lab 33.89%, UKIP 12.09%, LD 7.59%, SNP 7.40%, Greens 3.45%.
Another factoid I posted last night: after exactly half the results were in (325), the swing from Con to Lab was 0.00%. (Or from Lab to Con).
Well, the two party swing ended up being zero (rounded to the nearest %) anyway.
Comments
http://www.markpack.org.uk/143476/indelible-pencils/
https://twitter.com/scope/status/872492363423379456
Great!
Significance????
I'm all for some wild pre-exit poll commentary mind you
I can't think of a single General Election when turnout has been reported as 'crap.' We get this every time.
https://twitter.com/PanelbaseMD/status/872758173698076672
Now, I do think Labour will end up in the mid 30s, which is impressive, but if they were to get high 20s, then he hasn't really impressed at all - he just looked like he was.
Turnout is worse than the tealeaves.
It has been rubbish over and over again in the last five votes and still people try and read into it.
Leave at 5pm - home via the shops to buy pizza, crisps and other snacks. No booze, I don't drink.
Home - daughter to bed - then off to an all night election 'party' at a friends house. Six of us. An unrepentant Kipper, a true Thatcherite blue, a 'wet' conservative, one Blairite Labour, one Corbyn Labour and myself... whatever I am (probably wet blue).
I didn't get this one.
There seems to be a real lack of understanding about how sophisticated it is possible to be with email marketing from people (Paul Mason), who ought to know better. Targeted messaging wins elections these days and the Tories seem to be good at it.
The aftermath lead to a few first time Tories giving away who they voted for. If the office is anything to go by then some surprising Labour supporters over 40 decided to vote May to stop Corbyn.
When people talk about how more high brow and civilised things were back in the day they are talking shite hen.
Who is Tissue P[rice standing for (just so I know who to look out for on telly at 4am) ?
Words to the effect those that know what is going on don't go around telling people.
Who is Tissue P[rice standing for (just so I know who to look out for on telly at 4am) ?
Don Valley - Conservatives.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/596123641672261632
1979, 1987 and 1992 were high turnout elections, delivering varying Conservative leads; 2001 was a very low turnout election, which delivered a Labour landslide.
Not something you have to worry about today.
(Is it legal for bookies to take a bet which *cannot* be won?)
Another factoid I posted last night: after exactly half the results were in (325), the swing from Con to Lab was 0.00%. (Or from Lab to Con).
(yes he said "would've" - WHAT DOES HE KNOW????)
I think Paul Mason has been losing it a bit in the last few days, even if is genuine, does he seriously take the contents at face value rather than just a get out the vote ploy?