Corbyn is still crap May is also crap Sturgeon has become crap Farron is an irrelevant crap Wood is yn crap and Nuttall...who?
My daughter (20) was mumping about that in the car on the way to Edinburgh this morning. She really does not like any of them. At all. Its hard not to agree.
I think she has decided to vote for the irrelevant crap. Before the security stuff she was tempted by Corbyn but no longer. May lost her with the fox hunting nonsense.
It has been a depressingly poor campaign all round. This country faces some very clear and real challenges in only 10 days time. We are really none the wiser about how those challenges are to be met. Corbyn and Labour simply did not engage in that argument so the Tories got away with bland meaningless rubbish.
I am going to vote Tory, as usual, but with less enthusiasm than I can recall. If was not for the fight with the SNP north of the border I am really not entirely sure I would have bothered.
That's weird. The Greens are campaigning with plackards in Cambridge City Centre. I didn't think that was allowed on polling day?
Any campaigning is legal today, except within the confines of a polling station.
As a youngster, taught the basics of campaigning by my activist mother, we were told no campaigning on the day - other than a 'Good morning' leaflet delivered before 7am.
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
So I'll be missing all the fun.
You are of course doing the right thing but try not to wake him up at 10:00:01 with a shriek (one way or the other).
Plus we will be closely monitoring PB to ensure that you haven't snuck off to the loo, only to return half an hour later, having posted here 20 times in the meantime.
I will be out until 10pm G-ing OTV but will have the odd PB moment the while.
I'll probably be allowed to keep up to date until about 11pm or so. After that I expect I shall be given a robust Ulster Scots expression to encourage me to get some sleep.
I really want to sleep tonight as I am off out for a long lunch and then drinks tomorrow, but I do not see how I will be able to do it. My head will not let me. I am seriously considering a midnight sleeping pill, but am not sure even that will work.
Aren't the bars in Borough Market all still closed?
Bless. I suspect Mr Mason knows how many hedge fund managers there are per constituency, so he must be trying to make a political point. My mate down in Kent lost by one vote last year.
If Amazon had any sense of humour, they'd programme it to say "You're f***ed, I'm f***ed, the whole country's f***ed. It's the biggest f*** up in history and we're all completely f***ed. You probably want to stock up on canned food - I can help with that."
I reckon that youth turnout will be slightly higher than usual, with the Tories doing much worse than usual with them. However, we almost all live in safe Labour seats anyway, so it won't make much difference to anything bar the vote share.
If Amazon had any sense of humour, they'd programme it to say "You're f***ed, I'm f***ed, the whole country's f***ed. It's the biggest f*** up in history and we're all completely f***ed. You probably want to stock up on canned food - I can help with that."
The latest episode of Silicon Valley was very funny, where they had a "smart fridge".
Con 378 .. Lab 199 .. LibDem 8 .. SNP 44 .. PC 3 .. Green 1 .. UKIP 0 .. Speaker 1 .. NI 18
Con Maj 102
Turnout 66%
That's a Con Maj of 106!
Jack's seats total 652, so presumably the Tories' seat total should read 376 instead of 378.
Well, there you go, Jack goes for a 100+ seat landslide Tory win, whereas Stephen Fisher reckons there's only a 1% chance of such an eventuality.
You pays your money and you takes your choice!
I'm - tentatively - in the JackW camp. My prediction yesterday was:
Con 380 Lab 197 SNP 45 Lib Dem 6 Plaid Cymru 2 Green 1 Speaker 1 Northern Ireland 18
I do detect straws in the wind, however, that the Conservatives' final push may have alienated some of their target voters.
What straws, and how so?
1) David Herdson's remarks last night 2) Comments in the office
I'm standing by my prediction, I stress.
As a counter-example, one of my colleagues told me that his mother had been on the phone this morning telling him that she felt dirty, because while she hated the Tories, she'd had to vote for them to try to keep the SNP out.
Anecdote alert: Voted at about 12:30 and the gentleman handing out the ballot papers said unprompted that turnout was "high", that over a hundred had voted so far there which is "double" what he would normally expect by that time. Said that there had been a lot of young people voting.
Make of that what you will. Not had the chance to read the thread so don't know if that matches other people's expectations.
I reckon that youth turnout will be slightly higher than usual, with the Tories doing much worse than usual with them. However, we almost all live in safe Labour seats anyway, so it won't make much difference to anything bar the vote share.
A lot of them are at uni in safe seats, such as Nottingham East as today showed.
The Vote UK forum http://vote-2012.proboards.com/ has had a prediction poll for every marginal. I've tabulated the results - the last four columns of my table at https://ukelect.wordpress.com/2017/06/08/2017-the-marginals-some-predictions/ the four columns being Con Lab LD Nat. (The middle columns are my own predictions which you are free to ignore.) As far as I can see, the Vote UK forum's predicted election result is Con 371 Lab 199 SNP 44 LD 13 PC 4 Grn 1.
Original sample Lab 43 Con 38 LD 10 After initial weighting Lab 41 Con 41 LD 7 ( Lab and Con exactly 439 voters each ) After final turnout weighting Con 44 Lab 36 LD 7
So anywhere between Con plus 8 and Lab plus 3 and Ipsos will have got it right at some point .
I'm not surprised by long queues at university polling stations. Was the same when I voted at university, people went in groups so it's more likely to happen. Not saying that youth turnout won't be high, but I wouldn't photos of long lines as evidence.
Original sample Lab 43 Con 38 LD 10 After initial weighting Lab 41 Con 41 LD 7 ( Lab and Con exactly 439 voters each ) After final turnout weighting Con 44 Lab 36 LD 7
So anywhere between Con plus 8 and Lab plus 3 and Ipsos will have got it right at some point .
Corbyn is still crap May is also crap Sturgeon has become crap Farron is an irrelevant crap Wood is yn crap and Nuttall...who?
My daughter (20) was mumping about that in the car on the way to Edinburgh this morning. She really does not like any of them. At all. Its hard not to agree.
I think she has decided to vote for the irrelevant crap. Before the security stuff she was tempted by Corbyn but no longer. May lost her with the fox hunting nonsense.
It has been a depressingly poor campaign all round. This country faces some very clear and real challenges in only 10 days time. We are really none the wiser about how those challenges are to be met. Corbyn and Labour simply did not engage in that argument so the Tories got away with bland meaningless rubbish.
I am going to vote Tory, as usual, but with less enthusiasm than I can recall. If was not for the fight with the SNP north of the border I am really not entirely sure I would have bothered.
Yep. That's how I feel too. Purely voting to stop Corbyn.
Worth remembering clerks will often report turnout as busy because they are the same people that sit there for Local elections getting bored. GE turnout is always busy in comparison.
Worth remembering clerks will often report turnout as busy because they are the same people that sit there for Local elections getting bored. GE turnout is always busy in comparison.
Plus they must get incredibly bored answering the same question about turnout over and over again. It must be tempting to make it up.
"This guy looks like a tory, let's tell him lots of youngsters have been in to vote and watch his trousers change colour."
Corbyn is still crap May is also crap Sturgeon has become crap Farron is an irrelevant crap Wood is yn crap and Nuttall...who?
My daughter (20) was mumping about that in the car on the way to Edinburgh this morning. She really does not like any of them. At all. Its hard not to agree.
I think she has decided to vote for the irrelevant crap. Before the security stuff she was tempted by Corbyn but no longer. May lost her with the fox hunting nonsense.
It has been a depressingly poor campaign all round. This country faces some very clear and real challenges in only 10 days time. We are really none the wiser about how those challenges are to be met. Corbyn and Labour simply did not engage in that argument so the Tories got away with bland meaningless rubbish.
I am going to vote Tory, as usual, but with less enthusiasm than I can recall. If was not for the fight with the SNP north of the border I am really not entirely sure I would have bothered.
Yep. That's how I feel too. Purely voting to stop Corbyn.
Much is made of the Yoof's determination to vote at this GE. On the other side of the coin is it not the case that the elderly are becoming ever more numerous and also more mobile in terms of having a driving licence and/or access to a car?
So good to see hordes of young people queuing up to vote, democracy is wonderful.
I can't help but notice that the pictures on the Guardian show the queues, but not the actual polling station - might they be queuing for, I dunno, the bar?
Corbyn is still crap May is also crap Sturgeon has become crap Farron is an irrelevant crap Wood is yn crap and Nuttall...who?
My daughter (20) was mumping about that in the car on the way to Edinburgh this morning. She really does not like any of them. At all. Its hard not to agree.
I think she has decided to vote for the irrelevant crap. Before the security stuff she was tempted by Corbyn but no longer. May lost her with the fox hunting nonsense.
It has been a depressingly poor campaign all round. This country faces some very clear and real challenges in only 10 days time. We are really none the wiser about how those challenges are to be met. Corbyn and Labour simply did not engage in that argument so the Tories got away with bland meaningless rubbish.
I am going to vote Tory, as usual, but with less enthusiasm than I can recall. If was not for the fight with the SNP north of the border I am really not entirely sure I would have bothered.
Yep. That's how I feel too. Purely voting to stop Corbyn.
Would you vote Lib Dem normally ?
Nah I'm a Cameroon. Would consider voting Lib Dem if they were a bit more Orange Book again though.
Comments
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/872813946696331264
Something afoot in this marginal seat?
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/872796403269029888
I think she has decided to vote for the irrelevant crap. Before the security stuff she was tempted by Corbyn but no longer. May lost her with the fox hunting nonsense.
It has been a depressingly poor campaign all round. This country faces some very clear and real challenges in only 10 days time. We are really none the wiser about how those challenges are to be met. Corbyn and Labour simply did not engage in that argument so the Tories got away with bland meaningless rubbish.
I am going to vote Tory, as usual, but with less enthusiasm than I can recall. If was not for the fight with the SNP north of the border I am really not entirely sure I would have bothered.
Reminds me a bit of 2010.
Good luck to other punters.
Con 380
Lab 197
SNP 45
Lib Dem 6
Plaid Cymru 2
Green 1
Speaker 1
Northern Ireland 18
I do detect straws in the wind, however, that the Conservatives' final push may have alienated some of their target voters.
My mate down in Kent lost by one vote last year.
"Acclaim the great victory of Chairman May's revolutionary line !"
-----
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/872799081806135297<
Although a lot was said about free money for Remain/Clinton
https://twitter.com/RHUL_LABOUR/status/872815161156960257
I actually have one that I use to turn the lights on and off, and I just discovered I have been using the wrong syntax
If I say "turns the lights on", half the time it turns them off
It works better if I say "turn on the lights"
2) Comments in the office
I'm standing by my prediction, I stress.
19% in a day is equivalent to annual rate of 6935 %
Live on BBC Parliament
All right, I give up. Labour are nailed on to win Canterbury.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3pYZwol6Dc
On my row in the office (6 x desks) I know at least four of us are voting Tory, almost all of them shy and none have told anyone else except me.
I've a small wager on Labour actually taking this because of the Remainer thing. Rest of my bets are pretty much all about a Tory landslide.
The Polling Station did not look overly busy but I did see 2 twenty-somethings. The staff said that it was about normal when asked "How busy is it?"
[ Edit: Altrincham & Sale West - Graham Brady's constituency. Majority in 2015 was 13,000 ish ]
Pendragon, King Arthur, on the ballot again, we really do have the poshest independents…!
Original sample Lab 43 Con 38 LD 10
After initial weighting Lab 41 Con 41 LD 7 ( Lab and Con exactly 439 voters each )
After final turnout weighting Con 44 Lab 36 LD 7
So anywhere between Con plus 8 and Lab plus 3 and Ipsos will have got it right at some point .
Just wait until after 6pm.
Judging by twitter feed, I think Labour was worried for Jack Dromey. Lots of outside help went to Erdington.
Could De Piero be in danger in Ashfield given Midlands could be worse than average for Labour?
"This guy looks like a tory, let's tell him lots of youngsters have been in to vote and watch his trousers change colour."
Well it's amusing assuming that he's not referring to plotting with the IRA.
Is this expectation management by Labour?