My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
So I'll be missing all the fun.
Safe journey Mr Meeks, you'll have something to look forward to when you step off the ferry.
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
Has anyone worked out what Martin Boon was playing at last night?
As I said, there's a special place in hell for poll rampers.
Kaboom 1 - The YouGov reverse ferret
Kaboom 2 - There was rumours of a poll with Labour ahead by 3% with a BPC pollster.
Turned out be a garbage poll by Qriously
A more likely Kaboom is the sound tomorrow as a large chunk of the UK political polling industry vaporises in the aftermath of a gigantic polling miss.
He's basically saying half of all voters will be over 55.
Makes me wonder if they have overdone the turnout weighting.
Average life expectancy in UK is 81. So:
18 to 54 = 37 years 55 to 81 = 26 years
So average turnout must be 37/26 = 42% higher amongst over 55s - that's ratio, not absolute amount.
Implies say:
54% turnout amongst under 55s 77% turnout amongst over 55s
Is that realistic?
But how many are registered? Being alive is only half the battle you've got to be registered. In fact if you posted, being alive is less important on the actual day than being registered come to think of it.
You know, I've never thought of that - does a postal vote count if you're dead?
Then again, how would they know?
And for that matter - what happens if you put your cross in the box on the day and drop dead between the polling booth and the ballot box?
I know I should get out more.
Some people will die between casting their votes this morning, and the results being announced overnight.
Has anyone worked out what Martin Boon was playing at last night?
As I said, there's a special place in hell for poll rampers.
Kaboom 1 - The YouGov reverse ferret
Kaboom 2 - There was rumours of a poll with Labour ahead by 3% with a BPC pollster.
Turned out be a garbage poll by Qriously
A more likely Kaboom is the sound tomorrow as a large chunk of the UK political polling industry vaporises in the aftermath of a gigantic polling miss.
You say that, but they're all congratulating each other on record profits after GE 2015, Brexit and then GE 2017.
Guido FawkesV @GuidoFawkes Hearing Labour fears that their vote is not coming out. #CorbynEffect
Seems quite likely. For every yoof voter energised by Corbyn, there will be several more who are disgusted by him, and who either fail to vote Labour or who go and vote for someone else.
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
Possible we will get the most boring election ever in the SE East and SW and London and an absolute tsunami in the Midlands and North with a fascinating Scotland. Wales, anyone's Guess! Could Labour in the North be doing a SLAB?
I have a slight issue with tonight. I need to stay awake in the dead hours between the exit poll and the first few results, and the main glut from two onwards.
Unfortunately, as my wife will be in the bedroom next door, and my toddler in the room above, I cannot make too much noise. So along with the whisky and popcorn, I've decided to continue on a paper-and-card model of a Saturn V I started a few months ago. It's all printed out ready to go, although I expect the gluing and cutting to get somewhat worse as the whisky somehow magically disappears from the bottle.
Has anyone worked out what Martin Boon was playing at last night?
As I said, there's a special place in hell for poll rampers.
Kaboom 1 - The YouGov reverse ferret
Kaboom 2 - There was rumours of a poll with Labour ahead by 3% with a BPC pollster.
Turned out be a garbage poll by Qriously
A more likely Kaboom is the sound tomorrow as a large chunk of the UK political polling industry vaporises in the aftermath of a gigantic polling miss.
"This is the first poll that gives an outright lead for Labour," Christopher Kahler, Qriously's CEO, says. "But our results are not wildly out of line with what other polls are predicting. It’s generally agreed that it will be a close-run election."
This was their blurb. I guess they don't read PB...
He's basically saying half of all voters will be over 55.
Makes me wonder if they have overdone the turnout weighting.
Average life expectancy in UK is 81. So:
18 to 54 = 37 years 55 to 81 = 26 years
So average turnout must be 37/26 = 42% higher amongst over 55s - that's ratio, not absolute amount.
Implies say:
54% turnout amongst under 55s 77% turnout amongst over 55s
Is that realistic?
Bear in mind that whilst life expectancy may be 81 that is not an upper limit for voting age whilst 18 is the lower limit. There are currently around 4.5% of the UK population who are over 80. If only half of them turn out that is still another 2% or so to add to the over 55s.
I have a slight issue with tonight. I need to stay awake in the dead hours between the exit poll and the first few results, and the main glut from two onwards.
Unfortunately, as my wife will be in the bedroom next door, and my toddler in the room above, I cannot make too much noise. So along with the whisky and popcorn, I've decided to continue on a paper-and-card model of a Saturn V I started a few months ago. It's all printed out ready to go, although I expect the gluing and cutting to get somewhat worse as the whisky somehow magically disappears from the bottle.
I have a slight issue with tonight. I need to stay awake in the dead hours between the exit poll and the first few results, and the main glut from two onwards.
Unfortunately, as my wife will be in the bedroom next door, and my toddler in the room above, I cannot make too much noise. So along with the whisky and popcorn, I've decided to continue on a paper-and-card model of a Saturn V I started a few months ago. It's all printed out ready to go, although I expect the gluing and cutting to get somewhat worse as the whisky somehow magically disappears from the bottle.
Have you ever read A Man on the Moon by Andrew Chaikin? It is an absolutely brilliant book about the Apollo programme, full of detail, but also wonderfully written. I've genuinely had my heart beating faster whilst reading it. It really puts into perspective just how courageous and skilled the astronauts were, not just passengers as they are sometimes described.
He's basically saying half of all voters will be over 55.
Makes me wonder if they have overdone the turnout weighting.
Average life expectancy in UK is 81. So:
18 to 54 = 37 years 55 to 81 = 26 years
So average turnout must be 37/26 = 42% higher amongst over 55s - that's ratio, not absolute amount.
Implies say:
54% turnout amongst under 55s 77% turnout amongst over 55s
Is that realistic?
But how many are registered? Being alive is only half the battle you've got to be registered. In fact if you posted, being alive is less important on the actual day than being registered come to think of it.
You know, I've never thought of that - does a postal vote count if you're dead?
Then again, how would they know?
And for that matter - what happens if you put your cross in the box on the day and drop dead between the polling booth and the ballot box?
I know I should get out more.
I think postal ballots count. Not sure about dying while you are walking to the ballot box with a completed ballot paper. I wonder if that has ever happened?
The state some Tory PBers have got themselves into of late I wouldn't be at all surprised!
I am wondering how I will get through to 10pm myself.
Planning a couple of stress-reducing pints in the pub before heading home for the Exit.
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
So I'll be missing all the fun.
You are of course doing the right thing but try not to wake him up at 10:00:01 with a shriek (one way or the other).
Plus we will be closely monitoring PB to ensure that you haven't snuck off to the loo, only to return half an hour later, having posted here 20 times in the meantime.
I will be out until 10pm G-ing OTV but will have the odd PB moment the while.
Possible we will get the most boring election ever in the SE East and SW and London and an absolute tsunami in the Midlands and North with a fascinating Scotland. Wales, anyone's Guess! Could Labour in the North be doing a SLAB?
Posted this earlier from Labour Uncut
"nick says: June 7, 2017 at 11:58 am I’ve never lived in a marginal before but I’ve been telephone-polled by the Labour party and had stacks of flyers, including today a really ‘get the core vote out’ one featuring an ex miner and ‘save the NHS’. I’m in North-West Durham FFS! Curious experience."
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
So I'll be missing all the fun.
You are of course doing the right thing but try not to wake him up at 10:00:01 with a shriek (one way or the other).
Plus we will be closely monitoring PB to ensure that you haven't snuck off to the loo, only to return half an hour later, having posted here 20 times in the meantime.
I will be out until 10pm G-ing OTV but will have the odd PB moment the while.
I'll probably be allowed to keep up to date until about 11pm or so. After that I expect I shall be given a robust Ulster Scots expression to encourage me to get some sleep.
I have a slight issue with tonight. I need to stay awake in the dead hours between the exit poll and the first few results, and the main glut from two onwards.
Unfortunately, as my wife will be in the bedroom next door, and my toddler in the room above, I cannot make too much noise. So along with the whisky and popcorn, I've decided to continue on a paper-and-card model of a Saturn V I started a few months ago. It's all printed out ready to go, although I expect the gluing and cutting to get somewhat worse as the whisky somehow magically disappears from the bottle.
I may try to catch four hours sleep after the exit poll. I said that before 2015 as well though...
For once it may be interesting... if (when!) the exit poll is bad for Jezza then the putsch may start just after 10. Certainly it'll be interesting to watch the Lab spinners for a couple of hours if it is a heavy defeat. Osbo/Balls may be the show to watch at this time.
There was a security guard who asked me a couple of questions beofre I went into the church to vote. First time they have had a security guard, sad times.
Not busier then usual in my avreage london outer london ward, very normal.
There was a security guard who asked me a couple of questions beofre I went into the church to vote. First time they have had a security guard, sad times.
Not busier then usual in my avreage london outer london ward, very normal.
You sure it wasn't MI5 checking you weren't a Labour voter?
I have a slight issue with tonight. I need to stay awake in the dead hours between the exit poll and the first few results, and the main glut from two onwards.
Unfortunately, as my wife will be in the bedroom next door, and my toddler in the room above, I cannot make too much noise. So along with the whisky and popcorn, I've decided to continue on a paper-and-card model of a Saturn V I started a few months ago. It's all printed out ready to go, although I expect the gluing and cutting to get somewhat worse as the whisky somehow magically disappears from the bottle.
Possible we will get the most boring election ever in the SE East and SW and London and an absolute tsunami in the Midlands and North with a fascinating Scotland. Wales, anyone's Guess! Could Labour in the North be doing a SLAB?
Posted this earlier from Labour Uncut
"nick says: June 7, 2017 at 11:58 am I’ve never lived in a marginal before but I’ve been telephone-polled by the Labour party and had stacks of flyers, including today a really ‘get the core vote out’ one featuring an ex miner and ‘save the NHS’. I’m in North-West Durham FFS! Curious experience."
Well the ComRes swing in the NE would make it a hyper marginal, like Sunderland Central etc.
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
So I'll be missing all the fun.
You are of course doing the right thing but try not to wake him up at 10:00:01 with a shriek (one way or the other).
Plus we will be closely monitoring PB to ensure that you haven't snuck off to the loo, only to return half an hour later, having posted here 20 times in the meantime.
I will be out until 10pm G-ing OTV but will have the odd PB moment the while.
I'll probably be allowed to keep up to date until about 11pm or so. After that I expect I shall be given a robust Ulster Scots expression to encourage me to get some sleep.
I really want to sleep tonight as I am off out for a long lunch and then drinks tomorrow, but I do not see how I will be able to do it. My head will not let me. I am seriously considering a midnight sleeping pill, but am not sure even that will work.
There was a security guard who asked me a couple of questions beofre I went into the church to vote. First time they have had a security guard, sad times.
Not busier then usual in my avreage london outer london ward, very normal.
Tumbleweed in my part of Sutton Coldfield. Not a single other voter in sight.
Guido FawkesV @GuidoFawkes Hearing Labour fears that their vote is not coming out. #CorbynEffect
If it's a youth vote, it will come out tonight.
But largely in cities.
If they are talking 18-24, a pretty large number will be in education/training, unemployed or with childcare responsibilities so available to vote in the day. Not as big a proportion as for pensioners, but far more than for late 20s, 30s, 40s and 50s voters who, yes, are more likely to be very early or relatively late.
However, I'd not read anything into party reports of turnout on the day. You might well want to boost turnout by spreading scare stories that it's looking bad and the onus is on YOU.
"been more impressive" is completely subjective and irrelevant come 10pm.
I wonder how impressive he'll seem if, as seems likely, he gets fewer seats than Michael Foot.
Moral victories are more important to some.
But whatever happens, Corbyn has definitely surprised and impressed this past month. Churlish to pretend otherwise.
Erm, shall we hold that judgement back until tomorrow?
Why? It's perfectly reasonable to reflect on the past campaign and the contribution of various individuals. As a critic, I was surprised and impressed by Corbyn.
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
So I'll be missing all the fun.
You are of course doing the right thing but try not to wake him up at 10:00:01 with a shriek (one way or the other).
Plus we will be closely monitoring PB to ensure that you haven't snuck off to the loo, only to return half an hour later, having posted here 20 times in the meantime.
I will be out until 10pm G-ing OTV but will have the odd PB moment the while.
I'll probably be allowed to keep up to date until about 11pm or so. After that I expect I shall be given a robust Ulster Scots expression to encourage me to get some sleep.
And it will be good advice. Make sure it is aided by something peaty.
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
So I'll be missing all the fun.
You are of course doing the right thing but try not to wake him up at 10:00:01 with a shriek (one way or the other).
Plus we will be closely monitoring PB to ensure that you haven't snuck off to the loo, only to return half an hour later, having posted here 20 times in the meantime.
I will be out until 10pm G-ing OTV but will have the odd PB moment the while.
I'll probably be allowed to keep up to date until about 11pm or so. After that I expect I shall be given a robust Ulster Scots expression to encourage me to get some sleep.
I really want to sleep tonight as I am off out for a long lunch and then drinks tomorrow, but I do not see how I will be able to do it. My head will not let me. I am seriously considering a midnight sleeping pill, but am not sure even that will work.
Just roll with it. You're not going to sleep. Go to the cinema if necessary.
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
So I'll be missing all the fun.
You are of course doing the right thing but try not to wake him up at 10:00:01 with a shriek (one way or the other).
Plus we will be closely monitoring PB to ensure that you haven't snuck off to the loo, only to return half an hour later, having posted here 20 times in the meantime.
I will be out until 10pm G-ing OTV but will have the odd PB moment the while.
I'll probably be allowed to keep up to date until about 11pm or so. After that I expect I shall be given a robust Ulster Scots expression to encourage me to get some sleep.
I really want to sleep tonight as I am off out for a long lunch and then drinks tomorrow, but I do not see how I will be able to do it. My head will not let me. I am seriously considering a midnight sleeping pill, but am not sure even that will work.
Just roll with it. You're not going to sleep. Go to the cinema if necessary.
the same thing happened with me in 2015, just couldn't sleep. got a few hours max, but was ok-ish for work on the friday...
Con 378 .. Lab 199 .. LibDem 8 .. SNP 44 .. PC 3 .. Green 1 .. UKIP 0 .. Speaker 1 .. NI 18
Con Maj 102
Turnout 66%
That's a Con Maj of 106!
Ha! Let's hope so. I'm on 199 Labour seats at 33-1. (only £2.50, mind). Before anyone credits me with any foresight, I'm also on Lab 200-250 and on NOM...
"been more impressive" is completely subjective and irrelevant come 10pm.
I wonder how impressive he'll seem if, as seems likely, he gets fewer seats than Michael Foot.
Moral victories are more important to some.
But whatever happens, Corbyn has definitely surprised and impressed this past month. Churlish to pretend otherwise.
Erm, shall we hold that judgement back until tomorrow?
Why? It's perfectly reasonable to reflect on the past campaign and the contribution of various individuals. As a critic, I was surprised and impressed by Corbyn.
How can you be impressed in advance of knowing how he has performed? It's like saying Andrew Murray looked good on the walk from the dressing room before the match began.
He's basically saying half of all voters will be over 55.
Makes me wonder if they have overdone the turnout weighting.
Average life expectancy in UK is 81. So:
18 to 54 = 37 years 55 to 81 = 26 years
So average turnout must be 37/26 = 42% higher amongst over 55s - that's ratio, not absolute amount.
Implies say:
54% turnout amongst under 55s 77% turnout amongst over 55s
Is that realistic?
Seems like it has a fair chance of being bang on but I'm not absolutely sure your averaging of life expectancy quite works the way you think it does. Aren't you assuming that birth cohorts are constant across time, and that nobody dies aged 54 or under, there?
Yes - you're quite right on both points.
I just thought it was a reasonable broad brush calculation - I wouldn't have thought your points would make a substantial difference to the result.
Most likely good enough for all practical purposes given the uncertainties in all the other numbers, yes.
"been more impressive" is completely subjective and irrelevant come 10pm.
I wonder how impressive he'll seem if, as seems likely, he gets fewer seats than Michael Foot.
Moral victories are more important to some.
But whatever happens, Corbyn has definitely surprised and impressed this past month. Churlish to pretend otherwise.
Erm, shall we hold that judgement back until tomorrow?
Why? It's perfectly reasonable to reflect on the past campaign and the contribution of various individuals. As a critic, I was surprised and impressed by Corbyn.
Absolutely. Even if the polls badly understate the Tories and May gets her mega-landslide, it's unarguable that Corbyn will have done better than had the actual vote been a week after the announcement, say. He's had a good campaign. The polls may be wrong in terms of levels, but that doesn't change the fact that the polls (and canvassers) all agree the movement over the campaign has been away from May.
Well four hours in my polling station and it has been solidly raining for the past two hours.
I didn't sit at the Assembly election but I was told it was significantly busier.
Couple of younger voters turned up who are not registered. I think that might well happen more in England as many of the keyboard Momentum warriors didn't check the actual register.
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
So I'll be missing all the fun.
You are of course doing the right thing but try not to wake him up at 10:00:01 with a shriek (one way or the other).
Plus we will be closely monitoring PB to ensure that you haven't snuck off to the loo, only to return half an hour later, having posted here 20 times in the meantime.
I will be out until 10pm G-ing OTV but will have the odd PB moment the while.
I'll probably be allowed to keep up to date until about 11pm or so. After that I expect I shall be given a robust Ulster Scots expression to encourage me to get some sleep.
So just the Sunderland results then before radio silence!
Anecdote alert: Voted at about 12:30 and the gentleman handing out the ballot papers said unprompted that turnout was "high", that over a hundred had voted so far there which is "double" what he would normally expect by that time. Said that there had been a lot of young people voting.
Make of that what you will. Not had the chance to read the thread so don't know if that matches other people's expectations.
Anecdote alert: Voted at about 12:30 and the gentleman handing out the ballot papers said unprompted that turnout was "high", that over a hundred had voted so far there which is "double" what he would normally expect by that time. Said that there had been a lot of young people voting.
Make of that what you will. Not had the chance to read the thread so don't know if that matches other people's expectations.
I am not certain about the outcome. Its the second time the General election has been fought on facebook. I have seen absolutely nothing of it, so I have no idea what ordinary people are saying(ie not the PB crowd). I couldn't listen to 5 live it was too painful.
Anecdote alert: Voted at about 12:30 and the gentleman handing out the ballot papers said unprompted that turnout was "high", that over a hundred had voted so far there which is "double" what he would normally expect by that time. Said that there had been a lot of young people voting.
Make of that what you will. Not had the chance to read the thread so don't know if that matches other people's expectations.
Anecdote alert: Voted at about 12:30 and the gentleman handing out the ballot papers said unprompted that turnout was "high", that over a hundred had voted so far there which is "double" what he would normally expect by that time. Said that there had been a lot of young people voting.
Make of that what you will. Not had the chance to read the thread so don't know if that matches other people's expectations.
Corbyn is still crap May is also crap Sturgeon has become crap Farron is an irrelevant crap Wood is yn crap and Nuttall...who?
In my view May is crap and Corbyn isn't the danger he thinks he is and his opponents would like him to be. A paper tiger to use his favoured Communist terminology.
I feel like anything below 200 seats and the Corbyn project is struggling to remain viable.
To be a corbynista you have to be far too far gone, to worry about the seat count at a rigged General Election. Messiahs who foresee the end of the world are never fazed when it doesn't happen, they just tell the faithful it's been postponed. The popular vote strategy is specifically Corbynite, not generally Labour and designed to inflame the faithful by contrasting vote share with seats won. Is he going to stand down? No. Are they going to no confidence him again? No. Is he going to limp on till conference in any way he can so as to rig the leadership election rules? Yes.
He's basically saying half of all voters will be over 55.
Makes me wonder if they have overdone the turnout weighting.
Average life expectancy in UK is 81. So:
18 to 54 = 37 years 55 to 81 = 26 years
So average turnout must be 37/26 = 42% higher amongst over 55s - that's ratio, not absolute amount.
Implies say:
54% turnout amongst under 55s 77% turnout amongst over 55s
Is that realistic?
But how many are registered? Being alive is only half the battle you've got to be registered. In fact if you posted, being alive is less important on the actual day than being registered come to think of it.
You know, I've never thought of that - does a postal vote count if you're dead?
Then again, how would they know?
And for that matter - what happens if you put your cross in the box on the day and drop dead between the polling booth and the ballot box?
I know I should get out more.
Some people will die between casting their votes this morning, and the results being announced overnight.
They will still be counted.
Eek. Must be quite a few who have died since casting their postal vote 10 days ago.
~800,000 people die each year, call it 25,000 in 10 days. Almost all wil be over 18, 15-odd % have a postal vote, turnout 67%. So ~2500 dead people's votes will be counted. Is that right?!
Reminds me of the "stat" that if you buy your lottery ticket before IIRC Thursday lunchtime you're more likely to be dead than win the jackpot.
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
So I'll be missing all the fun.
You are of course doing the right thing but try not to wake him up at 10:00:01 with a shriek (one way or the other).
Plus we will be closely monitoring PB to ensure that you haven't snuck off to the loo, only to return half an hour later, having posted here 20 times in the meantime.
I will be out until 10pm G-ing OTV but will have the odd PB moment the while.
I'll probably be allowed to keep up to date until about 11pm or so. After that I expect I shall be given a robust Ulster Scots expression to encourage me to get some sleep.
I really want to sleep tonight as I am off out for a long lunch and then drinks tomorrow, but I do not see how I will be able to do it. My head will not let me. I am seriously considering a midnight sleeping pill, but am not sure even that will work.
Just roll with it. You're not going to sleep. Go to the cinema if necessary.
the same thing happened with me in 2015, just couldn't sleep. got a few hours max, but was ok-ish for work on the friday...
I'll get through the day OK, it's the train journey home that concerns me: fall asleep, snore and dribble, miss Leamington and end up in Kidderminster then only realise I have left my wallet and phone on board when I get on the next train back to Leamington. It may have happened before!
Comments
They will still be counted.
Could Labour in the North be doing a SLAB?
This was their blurb. I guess they don't read PB...
I am wondering how I will get through to 10pm myself.
Planning a couple of stress-reducing pints in the pub before heading home for the Exit.
Plus we will be closely monitoring PB to ensure that you haven't snuck off to the loo, only to return half an hour later, having posted here 20 times in the meantime.
I will be out until 10pm G-ing OTV but will have the odd PB moment the while.
But largely in cities.
But whatever happens, Corbyn has definitely surprised and impressed this past month. Churlish to pretend otherwise.
"nick says:
June 7, 2017 at 11:58 am
I’ve never lived in a marginal before but I’ve been telephone-polled by the Labour party and had stacks of flyers, including today a really ‘get the core vote out’ one featuring an ex miner and ‘save the NHS’.
I’m in North-West Durham FFS!
Curious experience."
Not busier then usual in my avreage london outer london ward, very normal.
https://twitter.com/Kirsty_Worm/status/872789432503545856
Guido Fawkes is not one of them.
..................................................................................................
Final JackW Conservative Bedwetting Index :
Con 378 .. Lab 199 .. LibDem 8 .. SNP 44 .. PC 3 .. Green 1 .. UKIP 0 .. Speaker 1 .. NI 18
Con Maj 102
Turnout 66%
However, I'd not read anything into party reports of turnout on the day. You might well want to boost turnout by spreading scare stories that it's looking bad and the onus is on YOU.
'We shall extend voting hours to midnight'.
Or to 07.00 h the next day.
So at 10pm it will be:
*BONG* *BONG* *BONG*
"Landslide For May"
But I don't think there are Corbynite candidates in London marginals anyway.
Before anyone credits me with any foresight, I'm also on Lab 200-250 and on NOM...
Corbyn is still crap
May is also crap
Sturgeon has become crap
Farron is an irrelevant crap
Wood is yn crap
and Nuttall...who?
I didn't sit at the Assembly election but I was told it was significantly busier.
Couple of younger voters turned up who are not registered. I think that might well happen more in England as many of the keyboard Momentum warriors didn't check the actual register.
https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/872810909026197506
Make of that what you will. Not had the chance to read the thread so don't know if that matches other people's expectations.
If he got 35% and lost seats, he'd surely be unassailable.
~800,000 people die each year, call it 25,000 in 10 days. Almost all wil be over 18, 15-odd % have a postal vote, turnout 67%. So ~2500 dead people's votes will be counted. Is that right?!
Reminds me of the "stat" that if you buy your lottery ticket before IIRC Thursday lunchtime you're more likely to be dead than win the jackpot.
Have a nice day everyone!
Well, there you go, Jack goes for a 100+ seat landslide Tory win, whereas Stephen Fisher reckons there's only a 1% chance of such an eventuality.
You pays your money and you takes your choice!