anyone getting pre-10pm nerves. gut says tory majority nailed on. but still have that nagging doubt of uncertainty that we could get a shock result. tick tock
My partner inadvertently shared a pic of the 'Proud to vote for Theresa May' on FB, so of course the same ad appeared on her page.
Guess what? She's started receiving abuse from members of her own family - including her sister. It's upset her, and I'm furious.
I need to cool down before I do something I regret.
Lefties are the worst
Yes, Lefties are evil, unpatriotic, violent scum who can only aspire to all that is good and great about being a Tory. I know this, because I have read it several times, right here on PB.
Not all Lefties in general, but Corbynistas. I don't see any difference between them and BNP supporters. They are equally one-eyed, aggressive and vociferous in their beliefs. And equally odious. Two sides of the same coin, both sets of supporters deal in extremes.
I know a few Tories with Corbynista children - must be fun times.
Whereas I've voted Tory for the first time and my father (who once belonged to a Conservative club - though I never knew that until recently, and it was a long time ago) is now a Corbynista.
My father in law belonged to the Labour Club for the darts and the Conservative Club for the snooker (or it may have been the other way around). I don't think anybody cared.
(He always voted Labour. Mind you, he adored Enoch Powell, but then so did a lot of other working-class Labour supporters.)
Remember a mate of mine from a pit village in Durham telling me he was a member of the Conservative Club up there, as were all his family. Was well run, reasonably priced, had high quality snooker tables, and a somewhat strict law and order approach to any messing about/misbehaviour, no pop music, and as such was a popular place. None of them were Tories, in fact the Conservative club had far more members than local Tory voters.
There's very rarely a link between Con Clubs and the Conservative Party.
Back in 1997, I had a dear friend who was so left-wing that he made Dennis Skinner look like Margaret Thatcher. When I saw him on the Saturday morning I wondered why he wasn't celebrating with the other lefties in our crowd.
He replied "because the Tories have won."
I think he was ahead of the curve on that one. It took ten years for most Labourites to form a similar view.
That was one of the reasons why turnout in safe Labour seats plummeted in both 1997 and 2001.
HOw the Tories didn't point to jezza, to his manifesto and then what is going on in Venezuela I have no idea.
Because most voters haven't heard of Venezuela
Well there are plenty of videos out there showing how the government is crushing its citizens. Speaking as someone with family in Venezuela I'm ashamed about how much under reporting is happening in this country on the situation. And to think this what Corbyn holds up as a shining example of how it should be. If any of the corbynistas had to experience what my family is going through, with no food and daily battles with the military, just to survive, they may start to take off their rose tinted glasses.
HOw the Tories didn't point to jezza, to his manifesto and then what is going on in Venezuela I have no idea.
I'd imagine it focus-grouped (if that is a word) badly. Other attacks that were tried and dropped presumably focus-grouped well but then did poorly in Jim Messina's Facebook click-through analysis, or whatever it is he does.
We've seen pb posters getting overwrought about Jezza's IRA links, which CCHQ ran with then dropped. Presumably Messina discovered that most people thought it was so long ago they no longer cared whether Gerry Adams was wearing his IRA hat or his Sinn Fein hat at the time.
Most voters couldn't find Venezuela on a map after Michael Gove's education reforms. Their problems do not resonate here.
Another former Lib Dem friend gone off the Corbynite deep end.
Just think, he is saying about you: "another former Lib Dem friend gone off the Tory deep end"
Haha probably yes. Anyway my main aim is to save Clegg this election. I think he's in desperate trouble.
Labour to win Hallam?
Several models suggest so. The Mail have urged Tories to vote Clegg, but I think he's in real trouble.
Sorry , I disagree , the Labour campaign in Hallam this election has been far more low key than in 2015 with Oliver Coppard as candidate .
I'd have no idea, I'm just going by gut, which seems as reliable as some of these models will end up proving (I may even have predicted him hanging on, but I don't recall). Do you think it will be close?
Does anyone agree with me that we could have all kinds of strange declarations tonight throughout the whole Country
And will Nicola Sturgeon and even Theresa May survive
Theresa May's an interesting one. In Maidenhead, the Lib Dems were snapping at the Tories' heels until Dave detoxified the brand and it was heavily Remain. May has embraced hard Brexit and has turned her back on Dave's reforms. She might be toast.
Betting on the big picture, I'll be extremely happy if Alastair M or Jack W's forecasts come true.
I hope the declarations aren't 'excessively fascinating'. 10s-100s of gains and losses either way makes me nervous of some constituency bets.
I'm a bit confused why John Redwood is safe in Wokingham, a Remain seat, and TMay isn't safe in Maidenhead, a Remain seat in the same county.
Does anyone agree with me that we could have all kinds of strange declarations tonight throughout the whole Country
And will Nicola Sturgeon and even Theresa May survive
Theresa May's an interesting one. In Maidenhead, the Lib Dems were snapping at the Tories' heels until Dave detoxified the brand and it was heavily Remain. May has embraced hard Brexit and has turned her back on Dave's reforms. She might be toast.
Betting on the big picture, I'll be extremely happy if Alastair M or Jack W's forecasts come true.
I hope the declarations aren't 'excessively fascinating'. 10s-100s of gains and losses either way makes me nervous of some constituency bets.
I'm a bit confused why John Redwood is safe in Wokingham, a Remain seat, and TMay isn't safe in Maidenhead, a Remain seat in the same county.
Theresa May is 100% safe
Somewhere on Twitter a Corbynista is tweeting that on a reputable politics site people are debating whether TMay might lose her seat.
It slightly surprises me that some odds on the favourite in those seats are 1.01. They're not all 1.00.
My partner inadvertently shared a pic of the 'Proud to vote for Theresa May' on FB, so of course the same ad appeared on her page.
Guess what? She's started receiving abuse from members of her own family - including her sister. It's upset her, and I'm furious.
I need to cool down before I do something I regret.
Lefties are the worst
Yes, Lefties are evil, unpatriotic, violent scum who can only aspire to all that is good and great about being a Tory. I know this, because I have read it several times, right here on PB.
Not all Lefties in general, but Corbynistas. I don't see any difference between them and BNP supporters. They are equally one-eyed, aggressive and vociferous in their beliefs. And equally odious. Two sides of the same coin, both sets of supporters deal in extremes.
Just out of curiosity, how would you score your own posts for being one eyee, aggressive and vociferous?
Condemning a cabal of terrorist sympathisers and anti-Semites in a strong manner is none of those things. They are statements of fact.
Nate Silver and Harry Enten think each of the following are [sic] roughly as likely as the others: (1) Narrow-ish Tory majority (2) Tory landslide (3) Tory loss of majority
My partner inadvertently shared a pic of the 'Proud to vote for Theresa May' on FB, so of course the same ad appeared on her page.
Guess what? She's started receiving abuse from members of her own family - including her sister. It's upset her, and I'm furious.
I need to cool down before I do something I regret.
Lefties are the worst
Agreed, but you don't expect it from members of your own family. She's learnt a harsh lesson today about human nature and the pack mentality.
I posted earlier about a girl (18) that shared something.
The first response was from her *Dad*:
'Maybe one day you'll have a genuine thought of your own [name]... being influenced by new money shallow individuals is no excuse... don't be mislead! We'll get it from the magic money tree of course... take from the rich and divide it up fairly... get a conscience... there is a better way than greed.'
She's now been attacked by 5 or 6 different people and has had to post this: 'This is getting seriously out of hand. Everyone just calm down. Take a deep breath. And now fuck off and vote for whoever the hell you want! It's nobody else's business anyway!!!!!!'.
The abuse she got is no doubt from the kind of people who deprecate bullying of any sort and take up the cause of the oppressed....but when their political views are challenged..
It was just mental, seeing a Dad go in and savage his daughter's views, then her close friends joined in... on the Dad's side. Fuck me.
I imagine that there are quite a few dads who wouldn't mind their daughter's friends joining in with them...
SeanT?
Where is SeanT? Hiding behind the sofa?
Possibly still deciding whether or not to change his mind yet again as regards who to vote for?
Nate Silver and Harry Enten think each of the following are [sic] roughly as likely as the others: (1) Narrow-ish Tory majority (2) Tory landslide (3) Tory loss of majority
anyone getting pre-10pm nerves. gut says tory majority nailed on. but still have that nagging doubt of uncertainty that we could get a shock result. tick tock
Absolutely, don't think you can rule anything out right now so there is naturally some nerves.
Nate Silver and Harry Enten think each of the following are [sic] roughly as likely as the others: (1) Narrow-ish Tory majority (2) Tory landslide (3) Tory loss of majority
What's really silly is that Ladbrokes max politics payout is apparently 250k, so this punter basically got a 249/1 price for something that's about as likely as Elvis for next President.
Shadsy said he would have paid out the £1m.
(yes he said "would've" - WHAT DOES HE KNOW????)
As the exclusion is almost certainly unenforceable, I imagine he would pay it out. It would otherwise be, see you in court.
I thought gambling debts were unenforceable.
Not as such but given the success of Coral in the courts on refusing to pay out at similar odds on the bet "Rangers to be Relegated" (and the contortions they went through to prove that the plain English meaning of the word "Relegated" did not apply to this instance of "a technical adjustment of the club's status from a higher division to a lower division") included their defence claim that "We'd never have offered those odds if we thought there was any chance of it actually happening", one presumes the kind of event that would see the bet win would also be treated as an opportunity to palp the bet, particularly given Coral and Ladbrokes are now part of the same stable.
Rangers weren't relegated. They were liquidated. They ceased to exist.
What's really silly is that Ladbrokes max politics payout is apparently 250k, so this punter basically got a 249/1 price for something that's about as likely as Elvis for next President.
Shadsy said he would have paid out the £1m.
(yes he said "would've" - WHAT DOES HE KNOW????)
As the exclusion is almost certainly unenforceable, I imagine he would pay it out. It would otherwise be, see you in court.
I thought gambling debts were unenforceable.
Not as such but given the success of Coral in the courts on refusing to pay out at similar odds on the bet "Rangers to be Relegated" (and the contortions they went through to prove that the plain English meaning of the word "Relegated" did not apply to this instance of "a technical adjustment of the club's status from a higher division to a lower division") included their defence claim that "We'd never have offered those odds if we thought there was any chance of it actually happening", one presumes the kind of event that would see the bet win would also be treated as an opportunity to palp the bet, particularly given Coral and Ladbrokes are now part of the same stable.
Rangers weren't relegated. They were liquidated. They ceased to exist.
Seems like a sound decision by the courts - the new Rangers are a legally distinct entity, aren't they? Even in plain English I wouldn't say they were relegated.
And to think this what Corbyn holds up as a shining example of how it should be. If any of the corbynistas had to experience what my family is going through, with no food and daily battles with the military, just to survive, they may start to take off their rose tinted glasses.
Not to mention that while the country goes bankrupt, Chavez's daughter has billions in the bank.
My partner inadvertently shared a pic of the 'Proud to vote for Theresa May' on FB, so of course the same ad appeared on her page.
Guess what? She's started receiving abuse from members of her own family - including her sister. It's upset her, and I'm furious.
I need to cool down before I do something I regret.
Lefties are the worst
Agreed, but you don't expect it from members of your own family. She's learnt a harsh lesson today about human nature and the pack mentality.
I posted earlier about a girl (18) that shared something.
The first response was from her *Dad*:
'Maybe one day you'll have a genuine thought of your own [name]... being influenced by new money shallow individuals is no excuse... don't be mislead! We'll get it from the magic money tree of course... take from the rich and divide it up fairly... get a conscience... there is a better way than greed.'
She's now been attacked by 5 or 6 different people and has had to post this: 'This is getting seriously out of hand. Everyone just calm down. Take a deep breath. And now fuck off and vote for whoever the hell you want! It's nobody else's business anyway!!!!!!'.
The abuse she got is no doubt from the kind of people who deprecate bullying of any sort and take up the cause of the oppressed....but when their political views are challenged..
It was just mental, seeing a Dad go in and savage his daughter's views, then her close friends joined in... on the Dad's side. Fuck me.
I imagine that there are quite a few dads who wouldn't mind their daughter's friends joining in with them...
SeanT?
Where is SeanT? Hiding behind the sofa?
Possibly still deciding whether or not to change his mind yet again as regards who to vote for?
My partner inadvertently shared a pic of the 'Proud to vote for Theresa May' on FB, so of course the same ad appeared on her page.
Guess what? She's started receiving abuse from members of her own family - including her sister. It's upset her, and I'm furious.
I need to cool down before I do something I regret.
Lefties are the worst
Agreed, but you don't expect it from members of your own family. She's learnt a harsh lesson today about human nature and the pack mentality.
I posted earlier about a girl (18) that shared something.
The first response was from her *Dad*:
'Maybe one day you'll have a genuine thought of your own [name]... being influenced by new money shallow individuals is no excuse... don't be mislead! We'll get it from the magic money tree of course... take from the rich and divide it up fairly... get a conscience... there is a better way than greed.'
She's now been attacked by 5 or 6 different people and has had to post this: 'This is getting seriously out of hand. Everyone just calm down. Take a deep breath. And now fuck off and vote for whoever the hell you want! It's nobody else's business anyway!!!!!!'.
The abuse she got is no doubt from the kind of people who deprecate bullying of any sort and take up the cause of the oppressed....but when their political views are challenged..
It was just mental, seeing a Dad go in and savage his daughter's views, then her close friends joined in... on the Dad's side. Fuck me.
I had a brief public debate on FB with my Dad before EUref - I posted something remain supporting, he replied 'bollocks' and it escalated from there because we can't help but antagonise each other. It died down after my mum whatsapped us both telling us to stop.
Wasn't anywhere near as vitriolic as with that girl's debate with her dad, to be clear!
My grandfather didn't speak to his brother for 20 years because of politics.
What's really silly is that Ladbrokes max politics payout is apparently 250k, so this punter basically got a 249/1 price for something that's about as likely as Elvis for next President.
Shadsy said he would have paid out the £1m.
(yes he said "would've" - WHAT DOES HE KNOW????)
As the exclusion is almost certainly unenforceable, I imagine he would pay it out. It would otherwise be, see you in court.
I thought gambling debts were unenforceable.
Not as such but given the success of Coral in the courts on refusing to pay out at similar odds on the bet "Rangers to be Relegated" (and the contortions they went through to prove that the plain English meaning of the word "Relegated" did not apply to this instance of "a technical adjustment of the club's status from a higher division to a lower division") included their defence claim that "We'd never have offered those odds if we thought there was any chance of it actually happening", one presumes the kind of event that would see the bet win would also be treated as an opportunity to palp the bet, particularly given Coral and Ladbrokes are now part of the same stable.
Rangers weren't relegated. They were liquidated. They ceased to exist.
Seems like a sound decision by the courts - the new Rangers are a legally distinct entity, aren't they? Even in plain English I wouldn't say they were relegated.
Did the new Rangers have the same players? If so, they were relegated. If they had to buy 22 new players, it's a different club.
What's really silly is that Ladbrokes max politics payout is apparently 250k, so this punter basically got a 249/1 price for something that's about as likely as Elvis for next President.
Shadsy said he would have paid out the £1m.
(yes he said "would've" - WHAT DOES HE KNOW????)
As the exclusion is almost certainly unenforceable, I imagine he would pay it out. It would otherwise be, see you in court.
I thought gambling debts were unenforceable.
Not as such but given the success of Coral in the courts on refusing to pay out at similar odds on the bet "Rangers to be Relegated" (and the contortions they went through to prove that the plain English meaning of the word "Relegated" did not apply to this instance of "a technical adjustment of the club's status from a higher division to a lower division") included their defence claim that "We'd never have offered those odds if we thought there was any chance of it actually happening", one presumes the kind of event that would see the bet win would also be treated as an opportunity to palp the bet, particularly given Coral and Ladbrokes are now part of the same stable.
Rangers weren't relegated. They were liquidated. They ceased to exist.
Seems like a sound decision by the courts - the new Rangers are a legally distinct entity, aren't they? Even in plain English I wouldn't say they were relegated.
Wikipedia (fount of all knowledge) still maintains they were formed 145 years ago.
Can anyone suggest a good momentumy website i can lurk tonight to check their reaction, whatever the result. Im not on FB
I've haven't been keeping track during the campaign, but Labour list comments always used to be good for looking at the civil war in Labour unfold below the line or articles. Similarly ConHome is bound to be good if the Tories mess up.
Anyone not voted yet? Voting with the wife - she and voted Tory since 1997 and she's a conservative party member. She doesn't listen to one word I say.
Electronic voting would be the least secure system ever. Paper is hard to hack and our current system is efficient at counting it and is well scrutinised.
The day we go electronic, the UK will truly be sunk.
I've ranted many times about the technical problems, but more than anything anecdotes like the one I commented on show just how vital secrecy is, and internet voting at home does not offer that at all.
Anyone not voted yet? Voting with the wife - she and voted Tory since 1997 and she's a conservative party member. She doesn't listen to one word I say.
Just search for some well known Corbynite and their twitter account comes up on google, and if you're lucky and things go badly, they won't keep quiet but will be in a 'voters are bastards' mood.
Anyone not voted yet? Voting with the wife - she and voted Tory since 1997 and she's a conservative party member. She doesn't listen to one word I say.
I always vote at about 9pm. Makes it feel more exciting for some reason (!). And I haven't decided who to vote for yet, although I've got it down to two candidates. Doesn't matter much since I live in a very safe seat.
What's really silly is that Ladbrokes max politics payout is apparently 250k, so this punter basically got a 249/1 price for something that's about as likely as Elvis for next President.
Shadsy said he would have paid out the £1m.
(yes he said "would've" - WHAT DOES HE KNOW????)
As the exclusion is almost certainly unenforceable, I imagine he would pay it out. It would otherwise be, see you in court.
I thought gambling debts were unenforceable.
Not as such but given the success of Coral in the courts on refusing to pay out at similar odds on the bet "Rangers to be Relegated" (and the contortions they went through to prove that the plain English meaning of the word "Relegated" did not apply to this instance of "a technical adjustment of the club's status from a higher division to a lower division") included their defence claim that "We'd never have offered those odds if we thought there was any chance of it actually happening", one presumes the kind of event that would see the bet win would also be treated as an opportunity to palp the bet, particularly given Coral and Ladbrokes are now part of the same stable.
Rangers weren't relegated. They were liquidated. They ceased to exist.
Seems like a sound decision by the courts - the new Rangers are a legally distinct entity, aren't they? Even in plain English I wouldn't say they were relegated.
Wikipedia (fount of all knowledge) still maintains they were formed 145 years ago.
And yet 'With a new corporate identity, the club gained admittance to the fourth tier of Scottish league football in time for the start of the following season, and were promoted three times in four years to return to the top flight'
Anyone not voted yet? Voting with the wife - she and voted Tory since 1997 and she's a conservative party member. She doesn't listen to one word I say.
I've just got in from work. Tea first then walk the pooch to the polling.
Anyone not voted yet? Voting with the wife - she and voted Tory since 1997 and she's a conservative party member. She doesn't listen to one word I say.
I've just got in from work. Tea first then walk the pooch to the polling.
Anyone not voted yet? Voting with the wife - she and voted Tory since 1997 and she's a conservative party member. She doesn't listen to one word I say.
Anyone not voted yet? Voting with the wife - she and voted Tory since 1997 and she's a conservative party member. She doesn't listen to one word I say.
I've just got in from work. Tea first then walk the pooch to the polling.
HOw the Tories didn't point to jezza, to his manifesto and then what is going on in Venezuela I have no idea.
Because most voters haven't heard of Venezuela
Well there are plenty of videos out there showing how the government is crushing its citizens. Speaking as someone with family in Venezuela I'm ashamed about how much under reporting is happening in this country on the situation. And to think this what Corbyn holds up as a shining example of how it should be. If any of the Corbynistas had to experience what my family is going through, with no food and daily battles with the military, just to survive, they may start to take off their rose tinted glasses.
I entirely agree, and I think if May and the con leadership had made a bit thing about it, insted off the IRA links, then as more journalists hear about Venezuela, the the protests out there and government repression of those protests might have got a lot more TV coverage that would then have had a fed back loop of publicity. It would have also cut to the hart of what Corbyn is about and his appeal to idealistic mostly young people.
When you go on about the IRA it is easy to dismiss as 30 year ago...... but when you show video of the Venezuelan government 'expropriating' company after company. only for them to be so badly run by the government that the people are now staving and loosing wait.
Hear is a goodish but long video of Corbnys support and the stat of Venezuela now:
I am going to stick my neck out and predict turnout of 70%. Numerous people have commented to me about unusually high turnout at their polling stations - anecdotal of course but I can believe it. Higher youth turnout for Corbyn coupled with higher old turnout against Corbyn, I don't think the whole election fatigue idea really took hold with people.
Anecdata. The 2 labour voters who had sworn off whilst Corbyn was leader have voted Labour in the end. Am surprised with one of them after what they said about Corbyn.
What's really silly is that Ladbrokes max politics payout is apparently 250k, so this punter basically got a 249/1 price for something that's about as likely as Elvis for next President.
Shadsy said he would have paid out the £1m.
(yes he said "would've" - WHAT DOES HE KNOW????)
As the exclusion is almost certainly unenforceable, I imagine he would pay it out. It would otherwise be, see you in court.
I thought gambling debts were unenforceable.
Not as such but given the success of Coral in the courts on refusing to pay out at similar odds on the bet "Rangers to be Relegated" (and the contortions they went through to prove that the plain English meaning of the word "Relegated" did not apply to this instance of "a technical adjustment of the club's status from a higher division to a lower division") included their defence claim that "We'd never have offered those odds if we thought there was any chance of it actually happening", one presumes the kind of event that would see the bet win would also be treated as an opportunity to palp the bet, particularly given Coral and Ladbrokes are now part of the same stable.
Rangers weren't relegated. They were liquidated. They ceased to exist.
Seems like a sound decision by the courts - the new Rangers are a legally distinct entity, aren't they? Even in plain English I wouldn't say they were relegated.
Wikipedia (fount of all knowledge) still maintains they were formed 145 years ago.
And yet 'With a new corporate identity, the club gained admittance to the fourth tier of Scottish league football in time for the start of the following season, and were promoted three times in four years to return to the top flight'
'Gained admittance to', not 'were relegated to'.
I'm sorry but Rangers are quite clearly not a new club. To suggest otherwise is just being sad and pedantic.
As a Newcastle United fan, I have much sympathy for fans having to endure bad owners.
Has anyone heard that the Lib Dems are in a lot of trouble. Chap who told me that Norman Baker and Stephen Lloyd were losing about this time of day in 2015 reckons they're praying for 5 MPs. (He worked for Baker). Farron losing, Clegg ok. Don't know how true it is.
Electronic voting would be the least secure system ever. Paper is hard to hack and our current system is efficient at counting it and is well scrutinised.
The day we go electronic, the UK will truly be sunk.
I've ranted many times about the technical problems, but more than anything anecdotes like the one I commented on show just how vital secrecy is, and internet voting at home does not offer that at all.
Indeed. It would be Postal Voting on steroids with all the problems greatly magnified.
Anecdatum: turnout in a Con-leaning ward of Stockton South (5k Con maj over Labour) is reported as higher already than for the entire day in 2015.
From an intermittent lurker, a vote of thanks to the posters of this site for all your wit and wisdom.
69% turnout last time. Turned Con in 2010, in 2015 the LD gave up and those votes went CON. In 2015 there were over 5k UKIP votes.
Yup. It was near the top of Labour's target list in 2015 (the majority in 2010 was only 332). Labour have actually been making an effort this time - a new candidate (local GP), and I've had more communications from them than the Conservatives, despite this being a Con-leaning area. Nothing from any of the others.
The Labour candidate asked for my vote so he can hold the government to account. The Conservative asked for my vote so he can be a voice in the government. So neither seem to be in much doubt about what the nationwide result will be...
I'm trying to encourage my wife to vote by telling her that I think I'd be more upset by her not voting than by her voting Tory, but she doesn't seem to be in any rush to add her vote to the box.
I am going to stick my neck out and predict turnout of 70%. Numerous people have commented to me about unusually high turnout at their polling stations - anecdotal of course but I can believe it. Higher youth turnout for Corbyn coupled with higher old turnout against Corbyn, I don't think the whole election fatigue idea really took hold with people.
My bets are on higher-than-expected turnout - mainly through a spreadbet on over 62.75%, but also I've been laying the <65% bands;
First post on here for a while after just lurking for a few years.
I will miss reading the Facebook/twitter postings from many, especially those supporting Corbyn, once the election is finished. I suppose I should be worried about the appalling level of public debate, but I've chosen to just laugh at it for now.
Anyway, a story involving my son, who has just turned 12. He and some friends recently fell out with another kid at school, after they chose to go to a local scooter park rather than a skateboard one. The other kid feels so strongly about the scooter/skateboard debate that he will have nothing to do with anyone who has chosen differently to them.
Anyway, it came as no surprise to me to hear that this same kid, whose parents are extremely vocal Corbyn supporters, has spent this week taking that argument to the classroom. Anyone who doesn't agree with his opinion of the great man is apparently being treated like scooter loving lowlife.
I suppose he has an excuse. He is only 12 years old. I'm not sure what excuse the facebook/twitter warriors have.
Just search for some well known Corbynite and their twitter account comes up on google, and if you're lucky and things go badly, they won't keep quiet but will be in a 'voters are bastards' mood.
However this vote ends up, there are going to be some epic melt-downs!
Has anyone heard that the Lib Dems are in a lot of trouble. Chap who told me that Norman Baker and Stephen Lloyd were losing about this time of day in 2015 reckons they're praying for 5 MPs. (He worked for Baker). Farron losing, Clegg ok. Don't know how true it is.
There were in a tough position even before any news filtering through today came in.
Well, as has been noted before if the polls are right, then with Lab and Con both up on last time and the LDs static, several of the ones they held last time, most of them even, could be under threat, especially ones where UKIP are not standing, if in those seats most UKIP voters go Tory. It's a question of whether they can cluster their remaining support into those target seats to save them, and even pick up some gains, to offset what will probably be several losses at least (models seem to be ranging from 2-15).
Farron was expected to be safe, he has the only decent sized majority, but who knows. Clegg is in for a fight, but the Mail want Tories to vote for him and Mark Senior reckons the Lab campaign has not been as good and he should be safe. Williams' biggest opponent last time was PC, and some are having that one as a four way marginal, who knows what will happen but most models seem to think he is going to make it. Brake is widely predicted to lose in Carshalton, but some models have him holding on. Mulholland is vulnerable to Labour surges apparently, but I have no idea. Pugh isn't standing in Southport and most seem to think that seat is vulnerable. Lamb has been written off as a loss in many, but not all, models, a bit like Brake. Olney does not seem expected to win again in Richmond, but if the LDs are outperforming in places, London might be the place? Carmichael should be safe, Orkney and Shetland still gave big LD votes in 2016.
Some good chances of a few wins in Scotland, with some shots in London (Twickenham etc) and a sprinkling of other targets.
I think 4-10 is their range, in the end I went for 8.
What's really silly is that Ladbrokes max politics payout is apparently 250k, so this punter basically got a 249/1 price for something that's about as likely as Elvis for next President.
Shadsy said he would have paid out the £1m.
(yes he said "would've" - WHAT DOES HE KNOW????)
As the exclusion is almost certainly unenforceable, I imagine he would pay it out. It would otherwise be, see you in court.
I thought gambling debts were unenforceable.
Not as such but given the success of Coral in the courts on refusing to pay out at similar odds on the bet "Rangers to be Relegated" (and the contortions they went through to prove that the plain English meaning of the word "Relegated" did not apply to this instance of "a technical adjustment of the club's status from a higher division to a lower division") included their defence claim that "We'd never have offered those odds if we thought there was any chance of it actually happening", one presumes the kind of event that would see the bet win would also be treated as an opportunity to palp the bet, particularly given Coral and Ladbrokes are now part of the same stable.
Rangers weren't relegated. They were liquidated. They ceased to exist.
Seems like a sound decision by the courts - the new Rangers are a legally distinct entity, aren't they? Even in plain English I wouldn't say they were relegated.
The fact that the Old bankrupt rangers had a vote on whether SevCo could get entry to the Premiership and that the players contracts were moved under TUPE is a bit of a hint they are two separate clubs.
I just want it to be over now. I don't think I've ever been as nervous for an election in my life.
Same on both counts.
Relax. I'm sure I have seen many more elections than you and normally I'm stressed out of my brains but this time I have no great concerns whatever the outcome.
The years ahead are mainly about Brexit, and the economy, and I really don't see there's much room to manouevre on either, so why worry?
Can anyone suggest a good momentumy website i can lurk tonight to check their reaction, whatever the result. Im not on FB
I've haven't been keeping track during the campaign, but Labour list comments always used to be good for looking at the civil war in Labour unfold below the line or articles. Similarly ConHome is bound to be good if the Tories mess up.
But really we want proper forum type reactions.
What about on reddit? It's great fun checking in to The_Donald subreddit when Trump does something against his campaign promises, like attacking Syria, and watching as the alt-righters tear themselves apart. I'm sure momentum/far left have a similar group on there.
I've learned from bitter experience never to bet on polling day itself but if I was doing so I'd go for a lower turnout than GE2015. This is based on current patterns in my ward where I've been involved on a election day on every occasion for past 30 years
Anyone not voted yet? Voting with the wife - she and voted Tory since 1997 and she's a conservative party member. She doesn't listen to one word I say.
I always vote at about 9pm. Makes it feel more exciting for some reason (!). And I haven't decided who to vote for yet, although I've got it down to two candidates. Doesn't matter much since I live in a very safe seat.
Got 2 bottles of malbec + 2 bottles of prosecco. Nachos with multiple options of dips. Going to make steak for around 9pm.
I'm happy with the result either way. I've back the conservatives to win either 375-400;400-425 seats.
Whatever happens tonight; Theresa Mays goose is cooked. 2017 election feels like a 1992/2005 election to me; the tories will be in opposition in 2022. there voting against corbyn not for may and that was what killed major and blair.
Can anyone suggest a good momentumy website i can lurk tonight to check their reaction, whatever the result. Im not on FB
I've haven't been keeping track during the campaign, but Labour list comments always used to be good for looking at the civil war in Labour unfold below the line or articles. Similarly ConHome is bound to be good if the Tories mess up.
But really we want proper forum type reactions.
What about on reddit? It's great fun checking in to The_Donald subreddit when Trump does something against his campaign promises, like attacking Syria, and watching as the alt-righters tear themselves apart. I'm sure momentum/far left have a similar group on there.
A chunk of LabourList has been Guido Fawkes regulars trolling for ages though, not sure anybody goes there for the comments.
Can anyone suggest a good momentumy website i can lurk tonight to check their reaction, whatever the result. Im not on FB
I've haven't been keeping track during the campaign, but Labour list comments always used to be good for looking at the civil war in Labour unfold below the line or articles. Similarly ConHome is bound to be good if the Tories mess up.
But really we want proper forum type reactions.
What about on reddit? It's great fun checking in to The_Donald subreddit when Trump does something against his campaign promises, like attacking Syria, and watching as the alt-righters tear themselves apart. I'm sure momentum/far left have a similar group on there.
A chunk of LabourList has been Guido Fawkes regulars trolling for ages though.
Any decent last minute bets to be had? Tempted to put some money on Lib Dems winning Argyll and Bute.
Bought myself some Gentleman's Jacks for tonight. Not a big fan of American Whiskey, but this stuff is so good. Will down a measure in celebration if any of the below happens.
~ Salmond loses his seat ~ Robertson loses his seat ~ Jess Phillips loses her seat ~ Caroline Lucas loses her seat ~ Tories win Wales ~ Tories get an MP in Northern Ireland
2017 election feels like a 1992/2005 election to me; the tories will be in opposition in 2022.
Not if she gets her landslide or even a solid majority. Instances of a party going from opposing a majority to governing with their own majority are more or less nil in the last 50 years.
Major's government was a minority by 1997. Callaghan's likewise in 1979.
It's been a busy day for me, campaigning across 3 constituencies. Of the several anecdotes I could share, the most interesting was a man (probably mid-50s) asking me if one voted for an MP and a party separately. By his question, I knew he'd be voting Conservative.
The great untold story of this election is how the middle-aged to elderly who voted for the first time in June 2016 for Brexit will vote now. My gut says they are coming out to vote, and will give May her landslide.
I am going to stick my neck out and predict turnout of 70%. Numerous people have commented to me about unusually high turnout at their polling stations - anecdotal of course but I can believe it. Higher youth turnout for Corbyn coupled with higher old turnout against Corbyn, I don't think the whole election fatigue idea really took hold with people.
My bets are on higher-than-expected turnout - mainly through a spreadbet on over 62.75%, but also I've been laying the <65% bands;
Feedback from Kingston - turnout apparently up on 2015 so far and the vote is extremely tight. Cons however feeling positive
It'd be very annoying to lose your seat on the same night the Tories (might) get a landslide. Less galling if it's only a small Tory majority, as obviously you expect some to go the other way on those sort of results.
Comments
We've seen pb posters getting overwrought about Jezza's IRA links, which CCHQ ran with then dropped. Presumably Messina discovered that most people thought it was so long ago they no longer cared whether Gerry Adams was wearing his IRA hat or his Sinn Fein hat at the time.
Most voters couldn't find Venezuela on a map after Michael Gove's education reforms. Their problems do not resonate here.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131084295
In fairness, I do have to apply that back around to the 35% or so who will vote Corbyn.
He will come back after all the dust settles. Probably.
(1) Narrow-ish Tory majority
(2) Tory landslide
(3) Tory loss of majority
They say nobody should be surprised unless Labour gets an overall majority:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-three-scenarios-for-the-u-k-election/
WillS.
No!!
Maybe!!!
FFS.
https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/309065744954580992
But really we want proper forum type reactions.
No. That's accurate. You are likely to vote Labour if you only have the faintest grasp on sanity...
"If you have no grasp on your sanity, vote LD"
'Gained admittance to', not 'were relegated to'.
https://www.thecanary.co/2017/06/08/former-ukip-voter-gives-frank-opinion-theresa-may-leaving-thousands-people-stitches-video/
When you go on about the IRA it is easy to dismiss as 30 year ago...... but when you show video of the Venezuelan government 'expropriating' company after company. only for them to be so badly run by the government that the people are now staving and loosing wait.
Hear is a goodish but long video of Corbnys support and the stat of Venezuela now:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VSIQAKpaR20
Or if you like your politics musical and funny hear is the Venezuelan Diet:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBf66wAMpVQ&t=3s
http://www.aiimi.com/aiimi-blogs/aiimi-analyses-uk-general-election-live-blog-ge2017
https://twitter.com/search-home
As a Newcastle United fan, I have much sympathy for fans having to endure bad owners.
Farron losing, Clegg ok. Don't know how true it is.
The Labour candidate asked for my vote so he can hold the government to account. The Conservative asked for my vote so he can be a voice in the government. So neither seem to be in much doubt about what the nationwide result will be...
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131104264
70.00001%+ would make me very happy.
We'll see.
I will miss reading the Facebook/twitter postings from many, especially those supporting Corbyn, once the election is finished. I suppose I should be worried about the appalling level of public debate, but I've chosen to just laugh at it for now.
Anyway, a story involving my son, who has just turned 12. He and some friends recently fell out with another kid at school, after they chose to go to a local scooter park rather than a skateboard one. The other kid feels so strongly about the scooter/skateboard debate that he will have nothing to do with anyone who has chosen differently to them.
Anyway, it came as no surprise to me to hear that this same kid, whose parents are extremely vocal Corbyn supporters, has spent this week taking that argument to the classroom. Anyone who doesn't agree with his opinion of the great man is apparently being treated like scooter loving lowlife.
I suppose he has an excuse. He is only 12 years old. I'm not sure what excuse the facebook/twitter warriors have.
Well, as has been noted before if the polls are right, then with Lab and Con both up on last time and the LDs static, several of the ones they held last time, most of them even, could be under threat, especially ones where UKIP are not standing, if in those seats most UKIP voters go Tory. It's a question of whether they can cluster their remaining support into those target seats to save them, and even pick up some gains, to offset what will probably be several losses at least (models seem to be ranging from 2-15).
Farron was expected to be safe, he has the only decent sized majority, but who knows.
Clegg is in for a fight, but the Mail want Tories to vote for him and Mark Senior reckons the Lab campaign has not been as good and he should be safe.
Williams' biggest opponent last time was PC, and some are having that one as a four way marginal, who knows what will happen but most models seem to think he is going to make it.
Brake is widely predicted to lose in Carshalton, but some models have him holding on.
Mulholland is vulnerable to Labour surges apparently, but I have no idea.
Pugh isn't standing in Southport and most seem to think that seat is vulnerable.
Lamb has been written off as a loss in many, but not all, models, a bit like Brake.
Olney does not seem expected to win again in Richmond, but if the LDs are outperforming in places, London might be the place?
Carmichael should be safe, Orkney and Shetland still gave big LD votes in 2016.
Some good chances of a few wins in Scotland, with some shots in London (Twickenham etc) and a sprinkling of other targets.
I think 4-10 is their range, in the end I went for 8.
The years ahead are mainly about Brexit, and the economy, and I really don't see there's much room to manouevre on either, so why worry?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QTW1Szr7ktZeVmbnnJex_CfSifFQSUTtZiBVHSiKTmw/edit#gid=0
I'm happy with the result either way. I've back the conservatives to win either 375-400;400-425 seats.
Whatever happens tonight; Theresa Mays goose is cooked. 2017 election feels like a 1992/2005 election to me; the tories will be in opposition in 2022. there voting against corbyn not for may and that was what killed major and blair.
NOM on the size-of-majority market includes Lab majority (and any other party majority)
NOM on the main overall majority market just means no party over 326.
NOM on the size-of-majortiy market should instead be written as "No Conservative Majority" to avoid confusion, IMO.
Their supporters don't often manage to combine humour with decent execution so I allowed myself a smile.
Bought myself some Gentleman's Jacks for tonight. Not a big fan of American Whiskey, but this stuff is so good. Will down a measure in celebration if any of the below happens.
~ Salmond loses his seat
~ Robertson loses his seat
~ Jess Phillips loses her seat
~ Caroline Lucas loses her seat
~ Tories win Wales
~ Tories get an MP in Northern Ireland
Major's government was a minority by 1997. Callaghan's likewise in 1979.
The great untold story of this election is how the middle-aged to elderly who voted for the first time in June 2016 for Brexit will vote now. My gut says they are coming out to vote, and will give May her landslide.