I'm experiencing a wobble. On my twitter feed many singers, musicians, TV personalities, writers, cartoonists, and one catastrophically overwrought TV cook are all breaking decisively for Labour. Surely PM Corbyn is nailed on?
Every time I go into a polling station I first ask myself Who Would Lilly Allen Vote For?
She is apparently a singer of some type, and therefore Knows Stuff.
I'm experiencing a wobble. On my twitter feed many singers, musicians, TV personalities, writers, cartoonists, and one catastrophically overwrought TV cook are all breaking decisively for Labour. Surely PM Corbyn is nailed on?
Who is the cook out of interest?
Ruby Tandoh seems to be experiencing some distress. Worth a trip to twitter, from behind a welding mask, to have a look.
Never heard of her but I'll have a look.
She's personally calling out TV chefs 'shaming' them for not speaking out
lots of big names staying suspiciously silent today despite their entire fortune/following being built on a ~kind and inclusive~ ethos
sorry but silence makes you a tory. if u think some ideological non-partisan thing is more valuable than getting a Labour govt in, get lost
The mood music since QT has been poor for Labour. Not brilliant for May either, especially on police numbers, but the scrutiny of Labour on security matters and the past comments of their top triumvirate are poisonous. I can envisage a sizeable late return to May as people think to themselves "Do I want to risk Prime Minister Corbyn? Nah....." This poll might perhaps be catching the start of it.
Perhaps this election won't even be remotely close in the end?
I'm getting pissed in 10 hours, whatever.
Yep
I've got a bottle of English Sparkling wine for the exit poll at 10pm and a litre of gin on standby just in case!
I'm experiencing a wobble. On my twitter feed many singers, musicians, TV personalities, writers, cartoonists, and one catastrophically overwrought TV cook are all breaking decisively for Labour. Surely PM Corbyn is nailed on?
Every time I go into a polling station I first ask myself Who Would Lilly Allen Vote For?
She is apparently a singer of some type, and therefore Knows Stuff.
I'm experiencing a wobble. On my twitter feed many singers, musicians, TV personalities, writers, cartoonists, and one catastrophically overwrought TV cook are all breaking decisively for Labour. Surely PM Corbyn is nailed on?
Who is the cook out of interest?
Ruby Tandoh seems to be experiencing some distress. Worth a trip to twitter, from behind a welding mask, to have a look.
Never heard of her but I'll have a look.
So right on and so stupid at the same time.
Today may be the best sales day The Sun has had in decades if all the cultists are out buying 30 copies at a time and binning them. LOL.
I'm experiencing a wobble. On my twitter feed many singers, musicians, TV personalities, writers, cartoonists, and one catastrophically overwrought TV cook are all breaking decisively for Labour. Surely PM Corbyn is nailed on?
Every time I go into a polling station I first ask myself Who Would Lilly Allen Vote For?
She is apparently a singer of some type, and therefore Knows Stuff.
I'm experiencing a wobble. On my twitter feed many singers, musicians, TV personalities, writers, cartoonists, and one catastrophically overwrought TV cook are all breaking decisively for Labour. Surely PM Corbyn is nailed on?
Who is the cook out of interest?
Ruby Tandoh seems to be experiencing some distress. Worth a trip to twitter, from behind a welding mask, to have a look.
Never heard of her but I'll have a look.
She's personally calling out TV chefs 'shaming' them for not speaking out
lots of big names staying suspiciously silent today despite their entire fortune/following being built on a ~kind and inclusive~ ethos
sorry but silence makes you a tory. if u think some ideological non-partisan thing is more valuable than getting a Labour govt in, get lost
I'm experiencing a wobble. On my twitter feed many singers, musicians, TV personalities, writers, cartoonists, and one catastrophically overwrought TV cook are all breaking decisively for Labour. Surely PM Corbyn is nailed on?
Every time I go into a polling station I first ask myself Who Would Lilly Allen Vote For?
She is apparently a singer of some type, and therefore Knows Stuff.
I'm experiencing a wobble. On my twitter feed many singers, musicians, TV personalities, writers, cartoonists, and one catastrophically overwrought TV cook are all breaking decisively for Labour. Surely PM Corbyn is nailed on?
Who is the cook out of interest?
Ruby Tandoh seems to be experiencing some distress. Worth a trip to twitter, from behind a welding mask, to have a look.
Never heard of her but I'll have a look.
She's personally calling out TV chefs 'shaming' them for not speaking out
lots of big names staying suspiciously silent today despite their entire fortune/following being built on a ~kind and inclusive~ ethos
sorry but silence makes you a tory. if u think some ideological non-partisan thing is more valuable than getting a Labour govt in, get lost
She also called out Nigella Lawson, I wonder if she know's who her dad is?
Silence makes you a Tory?
Oh, boy, we are one step away from show trials in Moscow with this lot.
The mood music since QT has been poor for Labour. Not brilliant for May either, especially on police numbers, but the scrutiny of Labour on security matters and the past comments of their top triumvirate are poisonous. I can envisage a sizeable late return to May as people think to themselves "Do I want to risk Prime Minister Corbyn? Nah....." This poll might perhaps be catching the start of it.
Perhaps this election won't even be remotely close in the end?
I'm getting pissed in 10 hours, whatever.
Yep
I've got a bottle of English Sparkling wine for the exit poll at 10pm and a litre of gin on standby just in case!
One of my sources reports police called to the Civic Hall in Didcot (the Gdansk of Oxfordshire (c) Stephen Fry) after someone made a grab for the ballot papers!
Betfair Tory maj drifting from 1.15 to now 1.21 in last hour.
Might be popping out for some pampers for the first time..... or more popcorn.
Now 1.26.....
Pile on.
There's no way the Blues are going to all Spursy today.
When was the last time Spurs were odds on for a trophy and blew it?
Against Coventry in 87?
Can we go back to Pampers please... this banter is not helping.
You reckon if Corbyn increases Labour's votes but loses seats, he'll feel like Spurs fans in 2012 when they finished fourth in the league but were denied a Champions League spot because Chelsea won the Champions League that season?
Surely more like Arsenal this season. We increased are points by four but fell three places.
I'm experiencing a wobble. On my twitter feed many singers, musicians, TV personalities, writers, cartoonists, and one catastrophically overwrought TV cook are all breaking decisively for Labour. Surely PM Corbyn is nailed on?
Every time I go into a polling station I first ask myself Who Would Lilly Allen Vote For?
She is apparently a singer of some type, and therefore Knows Stuff.
I'm experiencing a wobble. On my twitter feed many singers, musicians, TV personalities, writers, cartoonists, and one catastrophically overwrought TV cook are all breaking decisively for Labour. Surely PM Corbyn is nailed on?
Who is the cook out of interest?
Ruby Tandoh seems to be experiencing some distress. Worth a trip to twitter, from behind a welding mask, to have a look.
Never heard of her but I'll have a look.
So right on and so stupid at the same time.
Today may be the best sales day The Sun has had in decades if all the cultists are out buying 30 copies at a time and binning them. LOL.
It reminds me when the yuff had that campaign against Simon Cowell and all decided to buy RATM track to stop XFactor getting Christmas #1....but RATM record label is Sony and Cowell own label is part owned by Sony and he has share / profit share with them.....Genius.
I'm experiencing a wobble. On my twitter feed many singers, musicians, TV personalities, writers, cartoonists, and one catastrophically overwrought TV cook are all breaking decisively for Labour. Surely PM Corbyn is nailed on?
Every time I go into a polling station I first ask myself Who Would Lilly Allen Vote For?
She is apparently a singer of some type, and therefore Knows Stuff.
I'm experiencing a wobble. On my twitter feed many singers, musicians, TV personalities, writers, cartoonists, and one catastrophically overwrought TV cook are all breaking decisively for Labour. Surely PM Corbyn is nailed on?
Who is the cook out of interest?
Ruby Tandoh seems to be experiencing some distress. Worth a trip to twitter, from behind a welding mask, to have a look.
Never heard of her but I'll have a look.
She's personally calling out TV chefs 'shaming' them for not speaking out
lots of big names staying suspiciously silent today despite their entire fortune/following being built on a ~kind and inclusive~ ethos
sorry but silence makes you a tory. if u think some ideological non-partisan thing is more valuable than getting a Labour govt in, get lost
One of my sources reports police called to the Civic Hall in Didcot (the Gdansk of Oxfordshire (c) Stephen Fry) after someone made a grab for the ballot papers!
One of my sources reports police called to the Civic Hall in Didcot (the Gdansk of Oxfordshire (c) Stephen Fry) after someone made a grab for the ballot papers!
One of my sources reports police called to the Civic Hall in Didcot (the Gdansk of Oxfordshire (c) Stephen Fry) after someone made a grab for the ballot papers!
One of my sources reports police called to the Civic Hall in Didcot (the Gdansk of Oxfordshire (c) Stephen Fry) after someone made a grab for the ballot papers!
MI5 will just hire anyone these days, it seems
Yes - totally amateurish job. Didn't even bring a helicopter.
I'm experiencing a wobble. On my twitter feed many singers, musicians, TV personalities, writers, cartoonists, and one catastrophically overwrought TV cook are all breaking decisively for Labour. Surely PM Corbyn is nailed on?
Every time I go into a polling station I first ask myself Who Would Lilly Allen Vote For?
She is apparently a singer of some type, and therefore Knows Stuff.
I'm experiencing a wobble. On my twitter feed many singers, musicians, TV personalities, writers, cartoonists, and one catastrophically overwrought TV cook are all breaking decisively for Labour. Surely PM Corbyn is nailed on?
Who is the cook out of interest?
Ruby Tandoh seems to be experiencing some distress. Worth a trip to twitter, from behind a welding mask, to have a look.
Never heard of her but I'll have a look.
She's personally calling out TV chefs 'shaming' them for not speaking out
lots of big names staying suspiciously silent today despite their entire fortune/following being built on a ~kind and inclusive~ ethos
sorry but silence makes you a tory. if u think some ideological non-partisan thing is more valuable than getting a Labour govt in, get lost
This is a parody account right?
Could be for all I know. Funny though.
Hilariously, her twitter says she lives in Essex (Ruby that is). I wonder which Tory safe seat she is stuck in?
One of my sources reports police called to the Civic Hall in Didcot (the Gdansk of Oxfordshire (c) Stephen Fry) after someone made a grab for the ballot papers!
One of my sources reports police called to the Civic Hall in Didcot (the Gdansk of Oxfordshire (c) Stephen Fry) after someone made a grab for the ballot papers!
MI5 will just hire anyone these days, it seems
Yes - totally amateurish job. Didn't even bring a helicopter.
Vaizey was in the area earlier... that's all I'm saying.
Looking forward to tonight - though hard to foresee any of the shocks that made GE2015, Brexit and Trump so profitable on Betfair. My main bet is on the LDs getting <10 seats
1. Had lunch with someone yesterday who had chatted with Mundell about SCON chances. Apparently, the view was that SCON had 6-7 gains in the bag and could get 10-12. That was before the debate.
2. Met a friend of mine who is deep in with the Corbynista faction of the Labour party (e.g. her best friend is Chair of one of the Islington Labour Party seats. Asked her about she felt about today, expecting a "let's see how it goes". Instead, she turned round and said "it is going to an absolute disaster, you always have hopes but it will be terrible".
Just voted - to use the old cliche turnout seemed brisk - considering it's the middle of the afternoon.
First time voting for Labour, ironically the time when I have been least close to them as a party, but my seat is now a marginal so a LD vote would have been wasted, and I would like my local MP to win.
Perusing twitter, it occurs to me that if Jeremy and his fan club are so adamant that the content of the Sun and the Mail today are lies, they should take them to court. I'd pay for a seat in that public gallery......
Perusing twitter, it occurs to me that if Jeremy and his fan club are so adamant that the content of the Sun and the Mail today are lies, they should take them to court. I'd pay for a seat in that public gallery......
The editors must be delighted that left wingers are buying up every copy they can get their hands on.
Bloody Hell, Alastair Matlock is back! As if my nerves weren't already shredded by last night's Reverse Herdson. Welcome back, Alastair!
Many thanks, Cookie! Nothing like a General Election to stiffen the sinews, summon up the blood and raise old commenters like me from the dead.
For our younger members here, His Grace The Duke of Beaconsfield was Leader of the (dominant) pb Conservative Group from 2005-8. I was honoured to serve as his loyal chief whip.
My dear John - you are too kind! Sadly, I am still waiting for my peerage to come through... must have been held up in the scrutiny committee! I hope you are well? Commiserations on last year, though I am sure you are long since on to bigger and better things. Best of luck for today in your patch!
Many thanks and having spent a year in the wilderness I was recalled to serve my beloved Hersham in its distress on May 4th by being elected as their Surrey County Councillor. I'll write to you tomorrow. Shortly out to rouse the good denizens of Kingston and Surbiton for their day of destiny at the polling station.
Jolly Good! You know - I think I did know that, but my memory isn't what it used to be. I had the misfortune of spending the first half of May in hospital and was thus deprived of access to my usual sources of information. They finally had enough of me and gave me the boot. This evening's viewing should be much more comfortable!
Ha, I've just spent the past two months recovering from 8 broken ribs sustained in a minor skiing fall. First time in a long while that I've been able to keep up with PB and make the occasional comment and sneaky link to my blog ( www.lifestuff.xyz ). Turnout during a couple of hours of telling in strong Tory ward in Wandsworth... high early voting, up about 50%, then levelling off to usual levels after 10am. No visible change in age range from 2016, 2015 or 2010 for that matter.
He's basically saying half of all voters will be over 55.
Makes me wonder if they have overdone the turnout weighting.
Average life expectancy in UK is 81. So:
18 to 54 = 37 years 55 to 81 = 26 years
So average turnout must be 37/26 = 42% higher amongst over 55s - that's ratio, not absolute amount.
Implies say:
54% turnout amongst under 55s 77% turnout amongst over 55s
Is that realistic?
But how many are registered? Being alive is only half the battle you've got to be registered. In fact if you posted, being alive is less important on the actual day than being registered come to think of it.
He's basically saying half of all voters will be over 55.
Makes me wonder if they have overdone the turnout weighting.
Average life expectancy in UK is 81. So:
18 to 54 = 37 years 55 to 81 = 26 years
So average turnout must be 37/26 = 42% higher amongst over 55s - that's ratio, not absolute amount.
Implies say:
54% turnout amongst under 55s 77% turnout amongst over 55s
Is that realistic?
2 things to bear in mind.
1) A lot of young people aren't registered and EU immigrants who tend to be young aren't eligible 2) the baby boom generation us larger than surrounding generations (hence the name)
Annoyingly stuck in waiting for an Amazon delivery. I want to get out and vote. Let's hope they come before 10pm.
If this time tomorrow it is PM Corbyn you won't have to worry about this kind of thing anymore. They deliveries will probably take a few days at least.
He's basically saying half of all voters will be over 55.
Makes me wonder if they have overdone the turnout weighting.
Average life expectancy in UK is 81. So:
18 to 54 = 37 years 55 to 81 = 26 years
So average turnout must be 37/26 = 42% higher amongst over 55s - that's ratio, not absolute amount.
Implies say:
54% turnout amongst under 55s 77% turnout amongst over 55s
Is that realistic?
Seems like it has a fair chance of being bang on but I'm not absolutely sure your averaging of life expectancy quite works the way you think it does. Aren't you assuming that birth cohorts are constant across time, and that nobody dies aged 54 or under, there?
He's basically saying half of all voters will be over 55.
Makes me wonder if they have overdone the turnout weighting.
Average life expectancy in UK is 81. So:
18 to 54 = 37 years 55 to 81 = 26 years
So average turnout must be 37/26 = 42% higher amongst over 55s - that's ratio, not absolute amount.
Implies say:
54% turnout amongst under 55s 77% turnout amongst over 55s
Is that realistic?
But how many are registered? Being alive is only half the battle you've got to be registered. In fact if you posted, being alive is less important on the actual day than being registered come to think of it.
You know, I've never thought of that - does a postal vote count if you're dead?
Then again, how would they know?
And for that matter - what happens if you put your cross in the box on the day and drop dead between the polling booth and the ballot box?
He's basically saying half of all voters will be over 55.
Makes me wonder if they have overdone the turnout weighting.
Average life expectancy in UK is 81. So:
18 to 54 = 37 years 55 to 81 = 26 years
So average turnout must be 37/26 = 42% higher amongst over 55s - that's ratio, not absolute amount.
Implies say:
54% turnout amongst under 55s 77% turnout amongst over 55s
Is that realistic?
2 things to bear in mind.
1) A lot of young people aren't registered and EU immigrants who tend to be young aren't eligible 2) the baby boom generation us larger than surrounding generations (hence the name)
77% for over 55s. Wasn't it above that for EU referendum among oldies?
The final Ipsos MORI poll gives Mrs May an 11% lead over Corbyn on most capable PM.
In 2015 Cameron had a 15% lead over Miliband.
#MayIsCrap
Particularly striking since it was May's choice to make it Presidential precisely because there was such confidence she'd muller Corbyn on that metric in a total walkover.
She might well yet pull a huge win out of the bag, and it'll all be forgotten. A more modest one and it will be a bitter kind of victory that diminishes her badly. In the midst of life we are in death.
He's basically saying half of all voters will be over 55.
Makes me wonder if they have overdone the turnout weighting.
Average life expectancy in UK is 81. So:
18 to 54 = 37 years 55 to 81 = 26 years
So average turnout must be 37/26 = 42% higher amongst over 55s - that's ratio, not absolute amount.
Implies say:
54% turnout amongst under 55s 77% turnout amongst over 55s
Is that realistic?
But how many are registered? Being alive is only half the battle you've got to be registered. In fact if you posted, being alive is less important on the actual day than being registered come to think of it.
You know, I've never thought of that - does a postal vote count if you're dead?
Then again, how would they know?
And for that matter - what happens if you put your cross in the box on the day and drop dead between the polling booth and the ballot box?
I know I should get out more.
I think postal ballots count. Not sure about dying while you are walking to the ballot box with a completed ballot paper. I wonder if that has ever happened?
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
Since everyone else is putting up picks here's mine Con 354 Lab 221 LD 7 Plaid 5 SNP 41 Majority 58
I've been more bullish on Labour from the start as I never bought the idea that exLabour UKIPers in the North would vote Tory (as OGH said on the podcast). Just sorry I was in the USA when the 156 was available on the spreads for Labour seats.
Here's mine:
Conservative 403 Labour 160 Scottish National 50 Liberal Democrat 10 Democratic Unionist 8 Independent 4 Sinn Féin 4 Plaid Cymru 3 SDLP 3 Ulster Unionist Party 2 UKIP 1 Green 1
As you can see, I am well into landslide territory.
Getting a bit nervous about all these young people turning up and buggering this up though.
I don't think you need to be! I wish you did have cause for doubt as I hate Tory One-Party States.
My non-constituency betting is now biassed pro-TM=PM and pro-Tory majority with small amounts on landslide majorities.
Slightly more Labour than Tory constituency bets. I bet on Skinner holding Bolsover @1.29 which seemed silly odds and is now back to ~1.1
The final Ipsos MORI poll gives Mrs May an 11% lead over Corbyn on most capable PM.
In 2015 Cameron had a 15% lead over Miliband.
#MayIsCrap
It's a shock that anyone thinks Corbyn is the most capable PM.
I think they project. I like jam = I like Jezza. All the Labour enthusiasm and it's stupidity comes from the jam hose that Jezza says he'll spray at us.
He's basically saying half of all voters will be over 55.
Makes me wonder if they have overdone the turnout weighting.
Average life expectancy in UK is 81. So:
18 to 54 = 37 years 55 to 81 = 26 years
So average turnout must be 37/26 = 42% higher amongst over 55s - that's ratio, not absolute amount.
Implies say:
54% turnout amongst under 55s 77% turnout amongst over 55s
Is that realistic?
But how many are registered? Being alive is only half the battle you've got to be registered. In fact if you posted, being alive is less important on the actual day than being registered come to think of it.
You know, I've never thought of that - does a postal vote count if you're dead?
Then again, how would they know?
And for that matter - what happens if you put your cross in the box on the day and drop dead between the polling booth and the ballot box?
I know I should get out more.
I think postal ballots count. Not sure about dying while you are walking to the ballot box with a completed ballot paper. I wonder if that has ever happened?
The state some Tory PBers have got themselves into of late I wouldn't be at all surprised!
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
Perusing twitter, it occurs to me that if Jeremy and his fan club are so adamant that the content of the Sun and the Mail today are lies, they should take them to court. I'd pay for a seat in that public gallery......
The editors must be delighted that left wingers are buying up every copy they can get their hands on.
Also helpfully telling their 90k followers, plus all the retweeters, that "the Sun and Mail say something controversial about Corbyn today".
Perusing twitter, it occurs to me that if Jeremy and his fan club are so adamant that the content of the Sun and the Mail today are lies, they should take them to court. I'd pay for a seat in that public gallery......
The editors must be delighted that left wingers are buying up every copy they can get their hands on.
I award them very low marks for strategic thinking:
"It would be really bad if this was widely read, so I'll line the pockets of the publisher by buying up the physical copies, then I'll film myself burning it so it trends on twitter and folk go to the papers' websites to see what the fuss is all absolute".
The final Ipsos MORI poll gives Mrs May an 11% lead over Corbyn on most capable PM.
In 2015 Cameron had a 15% lead over Miliband.
#MayIsCrap
It's a shock that anyone thinks Corbyn is the most capable PM.
I think they project. I like jam = I like Jezza. All the Labour enthusiasm and it's stupidity comes from the jam hose that Jezza says he'll spray at us.
Corbyn has been more impressive than May during the campaign. More gravitas and a better communicator. It's not a surprise to me that people think he would make a better PM at all. She is bad.
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
So I'll be missing all the fun.
Oh dear, that is bad luck. Family come first obviously, but blimey...
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
So I'll be missing all the fun.
Well if you are going to Northern Ireland via the North Sea you may be aboard longer than you think
He's basically saying half of all voters will be over 55.
Makes me wonder if they have overdone the turnout weighting.
Average life expectancy in UK is 81. So:
18 to 54 = 37 years 55 to 81 = 26 years
So average turnout must be 37/26 = 42% higher amongst over 55s - that's ratio, not absolute amount.
Implies say:
54% turnout amongst under 55s 77% turnout amongst over 55s
Is that realistic?
Seems like it has a fair chance of being bang on but I'm not absolutely sure your averaging of life expectancy quite works the way you think it does. Aren't you assuming that birth cohorts are constant across time, and that nobody dies aged 54 or under, there?
Yes - you're quite right on both points.
I just thought it was a reasonable broad brush calculation - I wouldn't have thought your points would make a substantial difference to the result.
The final Ipsos MORI poll gives Mrs May an 11% lead over Corbyn on most capable PM.
In 2015 Cameron had a 15% lead over Miliband.
#MayIsCrap
It's a shock that anyone thinks Corbyn is the most capable PM.
I think they project. I like jam = I like Jezza. All the Labour enthusiasm and it's stupidity comes from the jam hose that Jezza says he'll spray at us.
And his supporters don't get that the jam is going to be provided by those nasty shareholders who own large PLCs.
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
So I'll be missing all the fun.
All about the main priorities - you can share your take at a later time no doubt. At the least you'll be able to catch the repeat!
Just voted - to use the old cliche turnout seemed brisk - considering it's the middle of the afternoon.
First time voting for Labour, ironically the time when I have been least close to them as a party, but my seat is now a marginal so a LD vote would have been wasted, and I would like my local MP to win.
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
So I'll be missing all the fun.
Well if you are going to Northern Ireland via the North Sea you may be aboard longer than you think
Good point! Too many "norths" on the brain. Since it's operating so badly, just as well I'm missing the fun.
I live in the most Labour part of what is normally considered a 'safe' Labour seat. I went to vote and I did a horrible thing, on the way in a Labour teller asked for my polling card number. I think I burst her bubble, I said "sorry, you cannot have my polling card number as I want nothing to do with a Labour party headed by Corbyn". She looked dejected, like she had listened to comments like that before. Anyway in the most Labour area, only one other person was voting in their at that time.
This is in contrast to another area in the same seat where I was acting as a proxy voter for a family member. The area where the second polling station is situated can be described as much more competitive and inclined for the Conservatives. In this polling station I had to queue. It might just be coincidental and completely non-reflective of what will happen but Labour could be in trouble.
I am not going to name the seat but it would be Tory target 100+ off Labour and Labour have spent a lot of money on mailshots delivered by Royal Mail in the last two weeks. They have targeted social housing and owner occupier housing in equal measure. The point is if Labour are using their resources on this type of seat the Tories are in for a good night and re-election IMO. The parliamentary constituency is thought to have voted Remain in 2016, UKIP are not standing this time though which might explain the Labour activity.
Ceredigion Labour wrote a letter to locla newspaper this week saying the reason there are few Labour placards around is that they do not get the support of large land owners (farmers to you and me) nor do they have large donations to spend (unlike Plaid and the LIb Dems?) Also very expensive . Could it also be that no one supports them
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
So I'll be missing all the fun.
Oh dear, that is bad luck. Family come first obviously, but blimey...
I really do feel for you. Not sure I could cope with that. What about listening to the radio with headphones.
Just voted - to use the old cliche turnout seemed brisk - considering it's the middle of the afternoon.
First time voting for Labour, ironically the time when I have been least close to them as a party, but my seat is now a marginal so a LD vote would have been wasted, and I would like my local MP to win.
By definition your local MP will win...
Note to self: Never leave even the slightest opening for a pedantic comment on PB!
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
So I'll be missing all the fun.
Safe journey Mr Meeks, you'll have something to look forward to when you step off the ferry.
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
So I'll be missing all the fun.
Safe journey Mr Meeks, you'll have something to look forward to when you step off the ferry.
I have a slight issue with tonight. I need to stay awake in the dead hours between the exit poll and the first few results, and the main glut from two onwards.
Unfortunately, as my wife will be in the bedroom next door, and my toddler in the room above, I cannot make too much noise. So along with the whisky and popcorn, I've decided to continue on a paper-and-card model of a Saturn V I started a few months ago. It's all printed out ready to go, although I expect the gluing and cutting to get somewhat worse as the whisky somehow magically disappears from the bottle.
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
So I'll be missing all the fun.
Well if you are going to Northern Ireland via the North Sea you may be aboard longer than you think
Good point! Too many "norths" on the brain. Since it's operating so badly, just as well I'm missing the fun.
All the best to the two of you as you sail over the Irish Sea which I can see as I type this
The final Ipsos MORI poll gives Mrs May an 11% lead over Corbyn on most capable PM.
In 2015 Cameron had a 15% lead over Miliband.
#MayIsCrap
It's a shock that anyone thinks Corbyn is the most capable PM.
I think they project. I like jam = I like Jezza. All the Labour enthusiasm and it's stupidity comes from the jam hose that Jezza says he'll spray at us.
Corbyn has been more impressive than May during the campaign. More gravitas and a better communicator. It's not a surprise to me that people think he would make a better PM at all. She is bad.
"been more impressive" is completely subjective and irrelevant come 10pm.
Has anyone worked out what Martin Boon was playing at last night?
As I said, there's a special place in hell for poll rampers.
My take was that one of his Kabooms was the swingback by YouGov, and the other was a rumour of Labour 3pts ahead in a poll, which others had also heard and which he later recanted. Whole thing was a bit silly if you ask me.
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
So I'll be missing all the fun.
Great to hear he is making good progress.
How mean of him to interrupt your election night fun though...
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
So I'll be missing all the fun.
Safe journey, I'm sure it'll be a quiet night on the political front.
The final Ipsos MORI poll gives Mrs May an 11% lead over Corbyn on most capable PM.
In 2015 Cameron had a 15% lead over Miliband.
#MayIsCrap
It's a shock that anyone thinks Corbyn is the most capable PM.
I think they project. I like jam = I like Jezza. All the Labour enthusiasm and it's stupidity comes from the jam hose that Jezza says he'll spray at us.
Corbyn has been more impressive than May during the campaign. More gravitas and a better communicator. It's not a surprise to me that people think he would make a better PM at all. She is bad.
"been more impressive" is completely subjective and irrelevant come 10pm.
Eh? All we're talking about is subjective opinions represented in polls.
But you're right, when she gets her expected landslide for five years, she will still be rubbish and we will all still be in the shit.
I have a slight issue with tonight. I need to stay awake in the dead hours between the exit poll and the first few results, and the main glut from two onwards.
Unfortunately, as my wife will be in the bedroom next door, and my toddler in the room above, I cannot make too much noise. So along with the whisky and popcorn, I've decided to continue on a paper-and-card model of a Saturn V I started a few months ago. It's all printed out ready to go, although I expect the gluing and cutting to get somewhat worse as the whisky somehow magically disappears from the bottle.
Comments
This is a parody account right?
Oh, boy, we are one step away from show trials in Moscow with this lot.
Is surprising if they haven't.
Perhaps they think Corbyn's going to pull this off.
*Tut*
I have no enthusiasm for May - I will feel only relief at Corbyn not being elected
But I am soooo looking forward to the results programme.
I know I am amongst friends :-)
He's basically saying half of all voters will be over 55.
Makes me wonder if they have overdone the turnout weighting.
Average life expectancy in UK is 81. So:
18 to 54 = 37 years
55 to 81 = 26 years
So average turnout must be 37/26 = 42% higher amongst over 55s - that's ratio, not absolute amount.
Implies say:
54% turnout amongst under 55s
77% turnout amongst over 55s
Is that realistic?
In 2015 Cameron had a 15% lead over Miliband.
#MayIsCrap
1. Had lunch with someone yesterday who had chatted with Mundell about SCON chances. Apparently, the view was that SCON had 6-7 gains in the bag and could get 10-12. That was before the debate.
2. Met a friend of mine who is deep in with the Corbynista faction of the Labour party (e.g. her best friend is Chair of one of the Islington Labour Party seats. Asked her about she felt about today, expecting a "let's see how it goes". Instead, she turned round and said "it is going to an absolute disaster, you always have hopes but it will be terrible".
Make of those what you want.
First time voting for Labour, ironically the time when I have been least close to them as a party, but my seat is now a marginal so a LD vote would have been wasted, and I would like my local MP to win.
And may the odds be ever in your favour.
There must be a link between best PM and voting intention, but it's not a clear one.
There's a new life for you if you want it... probably not on this site though!
Turnout during a couple of hours of telling in strong Tory ward in Wandsworth... high early voting, up about 50%, then levelling off to usual levels after 10am. No visible change in age range from 2016, 2015 or 2010 for that matter.
To coin a phrase.
1) A lot of young people aren't registered and EU immigrants who tend to be young aren't eligible
2) the baby boom generation us larger than surrounding generations (hence the name)
I have beers in and taken tomorrow off so I can stay up all night watching the results.
Some days it's good to be a geek :-)
Then again, how would they know?
And for that matter - what happens if you put your cross in the box on the day and drop dead between the polling booth and the ballot box?
I know I should get out more.
She might well yet pull a huge win out of the bag, and it'll all be forgotten. A more modest one and it will be a bitter kind of victory that diminishes her badly. In the midst of life we are in death.
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
So I'll be missing all the fun.
My non-constituency betting is now biassed pro-TM=PM and pro-Tory majority with small amounts on landslide majorities.
Slightly more Labour than Tory constituency bets. I bet on Skinner holding Bolsover @1.29 which seemed silly odds and is now back to ~1.1
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/labour-defence/
I bet on Hampstead at 5.0 and may cover the bet, given yesterday's report that 'it's tight'. How tight?
A few SNP and LibDem, these based mostly on tips from PBers, for which my thanks.
"It would be really bad if this was widely read, so I'll line the pockets of the publisher by buying up the physical copies, then I'll film myself burning it so it trends on twitter and folk go to the papers' websites to see what the fuss is all absolute".
I wouldn't employ them.
I just thought it was a reasonable broad brush calculation - I wouldn't have thought your points would make a substantial difference to the result.
Who are in fact them - via their Pension Funds.
This is in contrast to another area in the same seat where I was acting as a proxy voter for a family member. The area where the second polling station is situated can be described as much more competitive and inclined for the Conservatives. In this polling station I had to queue. It might just be coincidental and completely non-reflective of what will happen but Labour could be in trouble.
I am not going to name the seat but it would be Tory target 100+ off Labour and Labour have spent a lot of money on mailshots delivered by Royal Mail in the last two weeks. They have targeted social housing and owner occupier housing in equal measure. The point is if Labour are using their resources on this type of seat the Tories are in for a good night and re-election IMO. The parliamentary constituency is thought to have voted Remain in 2016, UKIP are not standing this time though which might explain the Labour activity.
What about listening to the radio with headphones.
Has anyone worked out what Martin Boon was playing at last night?
As I said, there's a special place in hell for poll rampers.
The above probably fit 50% of PB population (me included).
Unfortunately, as my wife will be in the bedroom next door, and my toddler in the room above, I cannot make too much noise. So along with the whisky and popcorn, I've decided to continue on a paper-and-card model of a Saturn V I started a few months ago. It's all printed out ready to go, although I expect the gluing and cutting to get somewhat worse as the whisky somehow magically disappears from the bottle.
How will everyone else be spending those hours?
(It's because I really want one of these : https://shop.lego.com/en-GB/LEGO-NASA-Apollo-Saturn-V-21309 )
The second Kaboom might have referred to BMG.
I had engineered the delivery for Saturday (tomorrow I will be too hungover and/or depressed to open the door).
Amazon must be quiet in the spending lull before the election because the stuff is arriving 2 days early.
Kaboom 2 - There was rumours of a poll with Labour ahead by 3% with a BPC pollster.
Turned out be a garbage poll by Qriously
Hearing Labour fears that their vote is not coming out. #CorbynEffect
How mean of him to interrupt your election night fun though...
But you're right, when she gets her expected landslide for five years, she will still be rubbish and we will all still be in the shit.
There will be others in the final hour of voting tonight.
Only place you can get #OsBalls