politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final poll, Ipsos MORI, has CON lead up 3 to 8% + latest b
Comments
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Why, is there something happening tonight?SimonStClare said:
Safe journey Mr Meeks, you'll have something to look forward to when you step off the ferry.AlastairMeeks said:Since we're among friends...
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
So I'll be missing all the fun.0 -
Halfway House!0
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2.30 and we are half-way through polling0
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Best wishes, Alastair.AlastairMeeks said:Since we're among friends...
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
So I'll be missing all the fun.0 -
Leadership bid coming up?AndreaParma_82 said:David Miliband is touring London marginals. Now he's in Harrow West.
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A more likely Kaboom is the sound tomorrow as a large chunk of the UK political polling industry vaporises in the aftermath of a gigantic polling miss.TheScreamingEagles said:
Kaboom 1 - The YouGov reverse ferretSean_F said:
Has anyone worked out what Martin Boon was playing at last night?
As I said, there's a special place in hell for poll rampers.
Kaboom 2 - There was rumours of a poll with Labour ahead by 3% with a BPC pollster.
Turned out be a garbage poll by Qriously0 -
Didn't we read this on Labour Uncut two weeks ago?Slackbladder said:Guido FawkesV @GuidoFawkes
Hearing Labour fears that their vote is not coming out. #CorbynEffect0 -
Some people will die between casting their votes this morning, and the results being announced overnight.Carolus_Rex said:
You know, I've never thought of that - does a postal vote count if you're dead?welshowl said:
But how many are registered? Being alive is only half the battle you've got to be registered. In fact if you posted, being alive is less important on the actual day than being registered come to think of it.MikeL said:The Ben Page tweet worries me a bit.
He's basically saying half of all voters will be over 55.
Makes me wonder if they have overdone the turnout weighting.
Average life expectancy in UK is 81. So:
18 to 54 = 37 years
55 to 81 = 26 years
So average turnout must be 37/26 = 42% higher amongst over 55s - that's ratio, not absolute amount.
Implies say:
54% turnout amongst under 55s
77% turnout amongst over 55s
Is that realistic?
Then again, how would they know?
And for that matter - what happens if you put your cross in the box on the day and drop dead between the polling booth and the ballot box?
I know I should get out more.
They will still be counted.0 -
You say that, but they're all congratulating each other on record profits after GE 2015, Brexit and then GE 2017.Fleet_of_Worlds said:
A more likely Kaboom is the sound tomorrow as a large chunk of the UK political polling industry vaporises in the aftermath of a gigantic polling miss.TheScreamingEagles said:
Kaboom 1 - The YouGov reverse ferretSean_F said:
Has anyone worked out what Martin Boon was playing at last night?
As I said, there's a special place in hell for poll rampers.
Kaboom 2 - There was rumours of a poll with Labour ahead by 3% with a BPC pollster.
Turned out be a garbage poll by Qriously0 -
Seems quite likely. For every yoof voter energised by Corbyn, there will be several more who are disgusted by him, and who either fail to vote Labour or who go and vote for someone else.Slackbladder said:Guido FawkesV @GuidoFawkes
Hearing Labour fears that their vote is not coming out. #CorbynEffect0 -
I hope it all goes wellAlastairMeeks said:Since we're among friends...
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
So I'll be missing all the fun.
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Lab majority 26s on betfair..jonny83 said:
Still early, plenty of time for the youth tsunami to turn up.Slackbladder said:Guido FawkesV @GuidoFawkes
Hearing Labour fears that their vote is not coming out. #CorbynEffect
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Possible we will get the most boring election ever in the SE East and SW and London and an absolute tsunami in the Midlands and North with a fascinating Scotland. Wales, anyone's Guess!
Could Labour in the North be doing a SLAB?0 -
Would help if he was an MP...rottenborough said:
Leadership bid coming up?AndreaParma_82 said:David Miliband is touring London marginals. Now he's in Harrow West.
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Idly speculating on here. And drinking.JosiasJessop said:I have a slight issue with tonight. I need to stay awake in the dead hours between the exit poll and the first few results, and the main glut from two onwards.
Unfortunately, as my wife will be in the bedroom next door, and my toddler in the room above, I cannot make too much noise. So along with the whisky and popcorn, I've decided to continue on a paper-and-card model of a Saturn V I started a few months ago. It's all printed out ready to go, although I expect the gluing and cutting to get somewhat worse as the whisky somehow magically disappears from the bottle.
How will everyone else be spending those hours?
(It's because I really want one of these : https://shop.lego.com/en-GB/LEGO-NASA-Apollo-Saturn-V-21309 )0 -
What seat is he standing in?rottenborough said:
Leadership bid coming up?AndreaParma_82 said:David Miliband is touring London marginals. Now he's in Harrow West.
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"This is the first poll that gives an outright lead for Labour," Christopher Kahler, Qriously's CEO, says. "But our results are not wildly out of line with what other polls are predicting. It’s generally agreed that it will be a close-run election."Fleet_of_Worlds said:
A more likely Kaboom is the sound tomorrow as a large chunk of the UK political polling industry vaporises in the aftermath of a gigantic polling miss.TheScreamingEagles said:
Kaboom 1 - The YouGov reverse ferretSean_F said:
Has anyone worked out what Martin Boon was playing at last night?
As I said, there's a special place in hell for poll rampers.
Kaboom 2 - There was rumours of a poll with Labour ahead by 3% with a BPC pollster.
Turned out be a garbage poll by Qriously
This was their blurb. I guess they don't read PB...0 -
Bear in mind that whilst life expectancy may be 81 that is not an upper limit for voting age whilst 18 is the lower limit. There are currently around 4.5% of the UK population who are over 80. If only half of them turn out that is still another 2% or so to add to the over 55s.MikeL said:The Ben Page tweet worries me a bit.
He's basically saying half of all voters will be over 55.
Makes me wonder if they have overdone the turnout weighting.
Average life expectancy in UK is 81. So:
18 to 54 = 37 years
55 to 81 = 26 years
So average turnout must be 37/26 = 42% higher amongst over 55s - that's ratio, not absolute amount.
Implies say:
54% turnout amongst under 55s
77% turnout amongst over 55s
Is that realistic?0 -
Have we had Jack W's pronouncement yet?0
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I may try to catch four hours sleep after the exit poll. I said that before 2015 as well though...Casino_Royale said:
Idly speculating on here. And drinking.JosiasJessop said:I have a slight issue with tonight. I need to stay awake in the dead hours between the exit poll and the first few results, and the main glut from two onwards.
Unfortunately, as my wife will be in the bedroom next door, and my toddler in the room above, I cannot make too much noise. So along with the whisky and popcorn, I've decided to continue on a paper-and-card model of a Saturn V I started a few months ago. It's all printed out ready to go, although I expect the gluing and cutting to get somewhat worse as the whisky somehow magically disappears from the bottle.
How will everyone else be spending those hours?
(It's because I really want one of these : https://shop.lego.com/en-GB/LEGO-NASA-Apollo-Saturn-V-21309 )0 -
NO!SquareRoot said:Have we had Jack W's pronouncement yet?
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It's just asleep. They'll be awake by 10pm and ready to head out to vote in the new Che Guevara. Hang on a minute...rottenborough said:
Didn't we read this on Labour Uncut two weeks ago?Slackbladder said:Guido FawkesV @GuidoFawkes
Hearing Labour fears that their vote is not coming out. #CorbynEffect0 -
Have you ever read A Man on the Moon by Andrew Chaikin? It is an absolutely brilliant book about the Apollo programme, full of detail, but also wonderfully written. I've genuinely had my heart beating faster whilst reading it. It really puts into perspective just how courageous and skilled the astronauts were, not just passengers as they are sometimes described.JosiasJessop said:I have a slight issue with tonight. I need to stay awake in the dead hours between the exit poll and the first few results, and the main glut from two onwards.
Unfortunately, as my wife will be in the bedroom next door, and my toddler in the room above, I cannot make too much noise. So along with the whisky and popcorn, I've decided to continue on a paper-and-card model of a Saturn V I started a few months ago. It's all printed out ready to go, although I expect the gluing and cutting to get somewhat worse as the whisky somehow magically disappears from the bottle.
How will everyone else be spending those hours?
(It's because I really want one of these : https://shop.lego.com/en-GB/LEGO-NASA-Apollo-Saturn-V-21309 )0 -
Call me a cynic, but I wonder what day last week that tweet was drafted.Slackbladder said:Guido FawkesV @GuidoFawkes
Hearing Labour fears that their vote is not coming out. #CorbynEffect0 -
Carolus_Rex said:
The state some Tory PBers have got themselves into of late I wouldn't be at all surprised!RobD said:
I think postal ballots count. Not sure about dying while you are walking to the ballot box with a completed ballot paper. I wonder if that has ever happened?Carolus_Rex said:
You know, I've never thought of that - does a postal vote count if you're dead?welshowl said:
But how many are registered? Being alive is only half the battle you've got to be registered. In fact if you posted, being alive is less important on the actual day than being registered come to think of it.MikeL said:The Ben Page tweet worries me a bit.
He's basically saying half of all voters will be over 55.
Makes me wonder if they have overdone the turnout weighting.
Average life expectancy in UK is 81. So:
18 to 54 = 37 years
55 to 81 = 26 years
So average turnout must be 37/26 = 42% higher amongst over 55s - that's ratio, not absolute amount.
Implies say:
54% turnout amongst under 55s
77% turnout amongst over 55s
Is that realistic?
Then again, how would they know?
And for that matter - what happens if you put your cross in the box on the day and drop dead between the polling booth and the ballot box?
I know I should get out more.
I am wondering how I will get through to 10pm myself.
Planning a couple of stress-reducing pints in the pub before heading home for the Exit.0 -
You are of course doing the right thing but try not to wake him up at 10:00:01 with a shriek (one way or the other).AlastairMeeks said:Since we're among friends...
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
So I'll be missing all the fun.
Plus we will be closely monitoring PB to ensure that you haven't snuck off to the loo, only to return half an hour later, having posted here 20 times in the meantime.
I will be out until 10pm G-ing OTV but will have the odd PB moment the while.0 -
If it's a youth vote, it will come out tonight.Slackbladder said:Guido FawkesV @GuidoFawkes
Hearing Labour fears that their vote is not coming out. #CorbynEffect
But largely in cities.0 -
The important thing is to not start your campaign 25 points adrift. However good your campaign is you will not come back from that.TGOHF said:
But whatever happens, Corbyn has definitely surprised and impressed this past month. Churlish to pretend otherwise.0 -
I'm still sticking with my majority of around 1000
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Posted this earlier from Labour Uncutdyedwoolie said:Possible we will get the most boring election ever in the SE East and SW and London and an absolute tsunami in the Midlands and North with a fascinating Scotland. Wales, anyone's Guess!
Could Labour in the North be doing a SLAB?
"nick says:
June 7, 2017 at 11:58 am
I’ve never lived in a marginal before but I’ve been telephone-polled by the Labour party and had stacks of flyers, including today a really ‘get the core vote out’ one featuring an ex miner and ‘save the NHS’.
I’m in North-West Durham FFS!
Curious experience."0 -
I'll probably be allowed to keep up to date until about 11pm or so. After that I expect I shall be given a robust Ulster Scots expression to encourage me to get some sleep.TOPPING said:
You are of course doing the right thing but try not to wake him up at 10:00:01 with a shriek (one way or the other).AlastairMeeks said:Since we're among friends...
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
So I'll be missing all the fun.
Plus we will be closely monitoring PB to ensure that you haven't snuck off to the loo, only to return half an hour later, having posted here 20 times in the meantime.
I will be out until 10pm G-ing OTV but will have the odd PB moment the while.0 -
All the best, Me Meeks. You've got your priorities right.0
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It's very noticeable that Travel Junkie hasn't surfaced yet. Up at the crack of 3pm or so I guess. Then back to sleep for 5 years.Brom said:
It's just asleep. They'll be awake by 10pm and ready to head out to vote in the new Che Guevara. Hang on a minute...rottenborough said:
Didn't we read this on Labour Uncut two weeks ago?Slackbladder said:Guido FawkesV @GuidoFawkes
Hearing Labour fears that their vote is not coming out. #CorbynEffect0 -
For once it may be interesting... if (when!) the exit poll is bad for Jezza then the putsch may start just after 10. Certainly it'll be interesting to watch the Lab spinners for a couple of hours if it is a heavy defeat. Osbo/Balls may be the show to watch at this time.Chameleon said:
I may try to catch four hours sleep after the exit poll. I said that before 2015 as well though...Casino_Royale said:
Idly speculating on here. And drinking.JosiasJessop said:I have a slight issue with tonight. I need to stay awake in the dead hours between the exit poll and the first few results, and the main glut from two onwards.
Unfortunately, as my wife will be in the bedroom next door, and my toddler in the room above, I cannot make too much noise. So along with the whisky and popcorn, I've decided to continue on a paper-and-card model of a Saturn V I started a few months ago. It's all printed out ready to go, although I expect the gluing and cutting to get somewhat worse as the whisky somehow magically disappears from the bottle.
How will everyone else be spending those hours?
(It's because I really want one of these : https://shop.lego.com/en-GB/LEGO-NASA-Apollo-Saturn-V-21309 )0 -
There was a security guard who asked me a couple of questions beofre I went into the church to vote. First time they have had a security guard, sad times.
Not busier then usual in my avreage london outer london ward, very normal.0 -
Ok you're a cynic. Who is going to stuck on a ferry on election night. That's a tough gig. Sympathies.AlastairMeeks said:
Call me a cynic, but I wonder what day last week that tweet was drafted.Slackbladder said:Guido FawkesV @GuidoFawkes
Hearing Labour fears that their vote is not coming out. #CorbynEffect0 -
You sure it wasn't MI5 checking you weren't a Labour voter?nunu said:There was a security guard who asked me a couple of questions beofre I went into the church to vote. First time they have had a security guard, sad times.
Not busier then usual in my avreage london outer london ward, very normal.
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Unfortunately the track record of my predictions on here means the opposite.rottenborough said:
If you bet correctly tonight you might be able to buy one!JosiasJessop said:I have a slight issue with tonight. I need to stay awake in the dead hours between the exit poll and the first few results, and the main glut from two onwards.
Unfortunately, as my wife will be in the bedroom next door, and my toddler in the room above, I cannot make too much noise. So along with the whisky and popcorn, I've decided to continue on a paper-and-card model of a Saturn V I started a few months ago. It's all printed out ready to go, although I expect the gluing and cutting to get somewhat worse as the whisky somehow magically disappears from the bottle.
How will everyone else be spending those hours?
(It's because I really want one of these : https://shop.lego.com/en-GB/LEGO-NASA-Apollo-Saturn-V-21309 ) 0 -
I know Mr Jack is of... "advancing years" and it can take a while to get things revved up but this delayed climax is getting annoying now...0
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Clive Lewis land?
https://twitter.com/Kirsty_Worm/status/8727894325035458560 -
Ah, he decided to stick with PB after all? Good man....JosiasJessop said:All the best, Me Meeks. You've got your priorities right.
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There are those I take seriously as reliable sources, and those I do not.AlastairMeeks said:
Call me a cynic, but I wonder what day last week that tweet was drafted.Slackbladder said:Guido FawkesV @GuidoFawkes
Hearing Labour fears that their vote is not coming out. #CorbynEffect
Guido Fawkes is not one of them.0 -
It's not like JackW to be late ...... he's usually right on the button.0
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When does his contract run out? 10pm I guess.Alice_Aforethought said:
It's very noticeable that Travel Junkie hasn't surfaced yet. Up at the crack of 3pm or so I guess. Then back to sleep for 5 years.Brom said:
It's just asleep. They'll be awake by 10pm and ready to head out to vote in the new Che Guevara. Hang on a minute...rottenborough said:
Didn't we read this on Labour Uncut two weeks ago?Slackbladder said:Guido FawkesV @GuidoFawkes
Hearing Labour fears that their vote is not coming out. #CorbynEffect0 -
Apologies for the delay. A complete outage at Auchentennach Castle as an escapee went into the fence in a bid to vote and double the LibDem score !!
..................................................................................................
Final JackW Conservative Bedwetting Index :
Con 378 .. Lab 199 .. LibDem 8 .. SNP 44 .. PC 3 .. Green 1 .. UKIP 0 .. Speaker 1 .. NI 18
Con Maj 102
Turnout 66%0 -
Well the ComRes swing in the NE would make it a hyper marginal, like Sunderland Central etc.TheKitchenCabinet said:
Posted this earlier from Labour Uncutdyedwoolie said:Possible we will get the most boring election ever in the SE East and SW and London and an absolute tsunami in the Midlands and North with a fascinating Scotland. Wales, anyone's Guess!
Could Labour in the North be doing a SLAB?
"nick says:
June 7, 2017 at 11:58 am
I’ve never lived in a marginal before but I’ve been telephone-polled by the Labour party and had stacks of flyers, including today a really ‘get the core vote out’ one featuring an ex miner and ‘save the NHS’.
I’m in North-West Durham FFS!
Curious experience."0 -
Seats with anti-Corbyn candidates only or no discrimination?AndreaParma_82 said:David Miliband is touring London marginals. Now he's in Harrow West.
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I really want to sleep tonight as I am off out for a long lunch and then drinks tomorrow, but I do not see how I will be able to do it. My head will not let me. I am seriously considering a midnight sleeping pill, but am not sure even that will work.AlastairMeeks said:
I'll probably be allowed to keep up to date until about 11pm or so. After that I expect I shall be given a robust Ulster Scots expression to encourage me to get some sleep.TOPPING said:
You are of course doing the right thing but try not to wake him up at 10:00:01 with a shriek (one way or the other).AlastairMeeks said:Since we're among friends...
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
So I'll be missing all the fun.
Plus we will be closely monitoring PB to ensure that you haven't snuck off to the loo, only to return half an hour later, having posted here 20 times in the meantime.
I will be out until 10pm G-ing OTV but will have the odd PB moment the while.
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Tumbleweed in my part of Sutton Coldfield. Not a single other voter in sight.nunu said:There was a security guard who asked me a couple of questions beofre I went into the church to vote. First time they have had a security guard, sad times.
Not busier then usual in my avreage london outer london ward, very normal.0 -
If they are talking 18-24, a pretty large number will be in education/training, unemployed or with childcare responsibilities so available to vote in the day. Not as big a proportion as for pensioners, but far more than for late 20s, 30s, 40s and 50s voters who, yes, are more likely to be very early or relatively late.Casino_Royale said:
If it's a youth vote, it will come out tonight.Slackbladder said:Guido FawkesV @GuidoFawkes
Hearing Labour fears that their vote is not coming out. #CorbynEffect
But largely in cities.
However, I'd not read anything into party reports of turnout on the day. You might well want to boost turnout by spreading scare stories that it's looking bad and the onus is on YOU.
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Yep. Lewis will clear 50% I thinkSouthamObserver said:Clive Lewis land?
https://twitter.com/Kirsty_Worm/status/8727894325035458560 -
That's a Con Maj of 106!JackW said:Apologies for the delay. A complete outage at Auchentennach Castle as an escapee went into the fence in a bid to vote and double the LibDem score !!
..................................................................................................
Final JackW Conservative Bedwetting Index :
Con 378 .. Lab 199 .. LibDem 8 .. SNP 44 .. PC 3 .. Green 1 .. UKIP 0 .. Speaker 1 .. NI 18
Con Maj 102
Turnout 66%0 -
Why? It's perfectly reasonable to reflect on the past campaign and the contribution of various individuals. As a critic, I was surprised and impressed by Corbyn.JennyFreeman said:0 -
I've got a bottle of paraquat ready in case the exit poll is bad.0
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Yes. Atul has very good intelligence.rottenborough said:
Didn't we read this on Labour Uncut two weeks ago?Slackbladder said:Guido FawkesV @GuidoFawkes
Hearing Labour fears that their vote is not coming out. #CorbynEffect0 -
I'm surprised the Labour manifesto didn't include the policyBrom said:
It's just asleep. They'll be awake by 10pm and ready to head out to vote in the new Che Guevara. Hang on a minute...rottenborough said:
Didn't we read this on Labour Uncut two weeks ago?Slackbladder said:Guido FawkesV @GuidoFawkes
Hearing Labour fears that their vote is not coming out. #CorbynEffect
'We shall extend voting hours to midnight'.
Or to 07.00 h the next day.0 -
And it will be good advice. Make sure it is aided by something peaty.AlastairMeeks said:
I'll probably be allowed to keep up to date until about 11pm or so. After that I expect I shall be given a robust Ulster Scots expression to encourage me to get some sleep.TOPPING said:
You are of course doing the right thing but try not to wake him up at 10:00:01 with a shriek (one way or the other).AlastairMeeks said:Since we're among friends...
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
So I'll be missing all the fun.
Plus we will be closely monitoring PB to ensure that you haven't snuck off to the loo, only to return half an hour later, having posted here 20 times in the meantime.
I will be out until 10pm G-ing OTV but will have the odd PB moment the while.0 -
Ah, finally!JackW said:Apologies for the delay. A complete outage at Auchentennach Castle as an escapee went into the fence in a bid to vote and double the LibDem score !!
..................................................................................................
Final JackW Conservative Bedwetting Index :
Con 378 .. Lab 199 .. LibDem 8 .. SNP 44 .. PC 3 .. Green 1 .. UKIP 0 .. Speaker 1 .. NI 18
Con Maj 102
Turnout 66%
So at 10pm it will be:
*BONG* *BONG* *BONG*
"Landslide For May"0 -
Ealing Central, Ilford North and Harrow West so far.
But I don't think there are Corbynite candidates in London marginals anyway.matt said:
Seats with anti-Corbyn candidates only or no discrimination?AndreaParma_82 said:David Miliband is touring London marginals. Now he's in Harrow West.
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Just roll with it. You're not going to sleep. Go to the cinema if necessary.SouthamObserver said:
I really want to sleep tonight as I am off out for a long lunch and then drinks tomorrow, but I do not see how I will be able to do it. My head will not let me. I am seriously considering a midnight sleeping pill, but am not sure even that will work.AlastairMeeks said:
I'll probably be allowed to keep up to date until about 11pm or so. After that I expect I shall be given a robust Ulster Scots expression to encourage me to get some sleep.TOPPING said:
You are of course doing the right thing but try not to wake him up at 10:00:01 with a shriek (one way or the other).AlastairMeeks said:Since we're among friends...
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
So I'll be missing all the fun.
Plus we will be closely monitoring PB to ensure that you haven't snuck off to the loo, only to return half an hour later, having posted here 20 times in the meantime.
I will be out until 10pm G-ing OTV but will have the odd PB moment the while.0 -
He is not going to any labour targets only labour held marginals.rottenborough said:
Leadership bid coming up?AndreaParma_82 said:David Miliband is touring London marginals. Now he's in Harrow West.
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So you neither take him seriously, nor do you not take him seriously?Casino_Royale said:
There are those I take seriously as reliable sources, and those I do not.AlastairMeeks said:
Call me a cynic, but I wonder what day last week that tweet was drafted.Slackbladder said:Guido FawkesV @GuidoFawkes
Hearing Labour fears that their vote is not coming out. #CorbynEffect
Guido Fawkes is not one of them.0 -
All bedwetting rights are fully reserved for the next 7 hours and 19 minutes.JackW said:Apologies for the delay. A complete outage at Auchentennach Castle as an escapee went into the fence in a bid to vote and double the LibDem score !!
..................................................................................................
Final JackW Conservative Bedwetting Index :
Con 378 .. Lab 199 .. LibDem 8 .. SNP 44 .. PC 3 .. Green 1 .. UKIP 0 .. Speaker 1 .. NI 18
Con Maj 102
Turnout 66%0 -
the same thing happened with me in 2015, just couldn't sleep. got a few hours max, but was ok-ish for work on the friday...Jonathan said:
Just roll with it. You're not going to sleep. Go to the cinema if necessary.SouthamObserver said:
I really want to sleep tonight as I am off out for a long lunch and then drinks tomorrow, but I do not see how I will be able to do it. My head will not let me. I am seriously considering a midnight sleeping pill, but am not sure even that will work.AlastairMeeks said:
I'll probably be allowed to keep up to date until about 11pm or so. After that I expect I shall be given a robust Ulster Scots expression to encourage me to get some sleep.TOPPING said:
You are of course doing the right thing but try not to wake him up at 10:00:01 with a shriek (one way or the other).AlastairMeeks said:Since we're among friends...
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
So I'll be missing all the fun.
Plus we will be closely monitoring PB to ensure that you haven't snuck off to the loo, only to return half an hour later, having posted here 20 times in the meantime.
I will be out until 10pm G-ing OTV but will have the odd PB moment the while.0 -
Point of order. There was only one bong before the exit poll was announced last time.GIN1138 said:
Ah, finally!JackW said:Apologies for the delay. A complete outage at Auchentennach Castle as an escapee went into the fence in a bid to vote and double the LibDem score !!
..................................................................................................
Final JackW Conservative Bedwetting Index :
Con 378 .. Lab 199 .. LibDem 8 .. SNP 44 .. PC 3 .. Green 1 .. UKIP 0 .. Speaker 1 .. NI 18
Con Maj 102
Turnout 66%
So at 10pm it will be:
*BONG* *BONG* *BONG*
"Landslide For May" 0 -
Jack will just be making allowance for the awkward squad.AlastairMeeks said:
That's a Con Maj of 106!JackW said:Apologies for the delay. A complete outage at Auchentennach Castle as an escapee went into the fence in a bid to vote and double the LibDem score !!
..................................................................................................
Final JackW Conservative Bedwetting Index :
Con 378 .. Lab 199 .. LibDem 8 .. SNP 44 .. PC 3 .. Green 1 .. UKIP 0 .. Speaker 1 .. NI 18
Con Maj 102
Turnout 66%0 -
Hubris.GIN1138 said:
Ah, finally!JackW said:Apologies for the delay. A complete outage at Auchentennach Castle as an escapee went into the fence in a bid to vote and double the LibDem score !!
..................................................................................................
Final JackW Conservative Bedwetting Index :
Con 378 .. Lab 199 .. LibDem 8 .. SNP 44 .. PC 3 .. Green 1 .. UKIP 0 .. Speaker 1 .. NI 18
Con Maj 102
Turnout 66%
So at 10pm it will be:
*BONG* *BONG* *BONG*
"Landslide For May"0 -
Ha! Let's hope so. I'm on 199 Labour seats at 33-1. (only £2.50, mind).AlastairMeeks said:
That's a Con Maj of 106!JackW said:Apologies for the delay. A complete outage at Auchentennach Castle as an escapee went into the fence in a bid to vote and double the LibDem score !!
..................................................................................................
Final JackW Conservative Bedwetting Index :
Con 378 .. Lab 199 .. LibDem 8 .. SNP 44 .. PC 3 .. Green 1 .. UKIP 0 .. Speaker 1 .. NI 18
Con Maj 102
Turnout 66%
Before anyone credits me with any foresight, I'm also on Lab 200-250 and on NOM...0 -
How can you be impressed in advance of knowing how he has performed? It's like saying Andrew Murray looked good on the walk from the dressing room before the match began.Jonathan said:
Why? It's perfectly reasonable to reflect on the past campaign and the contribution of various individuals. As a critic, I was surprised and impressed by Corbyn.JennyFreeman said:0 -
I feel like anything below 200 seats and the Corbyn project is struggling to remain viable.0
-
Most likely good enough for all practical purposes given the uncertainties in all the other numbers, yes.MikeL said:
Yes - you're quite right on both points.oldpolitics said:
Seems like it has a fair chance of being bang on but I'm not absolutely sure your averaging of life expectancy quite works the way you think it does. Aren't you assuming that birth cohorts are constant across time, and that nobody dies aged 54 or under, there?MikeL said:The Ben Page tweet worries me a bit.
He's basically saying half of all voters will be over 55.
Makes me wonder if they have overdone the turnout weighting.
Average life expectancy in UK is 81. So:
18 to 54 = 37 years
55 to 81 = 26 years
So average turnout must be 37/26 = 42% higher amongst over 55s - that's ratio, not absolute amount.
Implies say:
54% turnout amongst under 55s
77% turnout amongst over 55s
Is that realistic?
I just thought it was a reasonable broad brush calculation - I wouldn't have thought your points would make a substantial difference to the result.0 -
Me or Mr Jack?Casino_Royale said:
Hubris.GIN1138 said:
Ah, finally!JackW said:Apologies for the delay. A complete outage at Auchentennach Castle as an escapee went into the fence in a bid to vote and double the LibDem score !!
..................................................................................................
Final JackW Conservative Bedwetting Index :
Con 378 .. Lab 199 .. LibDem 8 .. SNP 44 .. PC 3 .. Green 1 .. UKIP 0 .. Speaker 1 .. NI 18
Con Maj 102
Turnout 66%
So at 10pm it will be:
*BONG* *BONG* *BONG*
"Landslide For May" 0 -
Absolutely. Even if the polls badly understate the Tories and May gets her mega-landslide, it's unarguable that Corbyn will have done better than had the actual vote been a week after the announcement, say. He's had a good campaign. The polls may be wrong in terms of levels, but that doesn't change the fact that the polls (and canvassers) all agree the movement over the campaign has been away from May.Jonathan said:
Why? It's perfectly reasonable to reflect on the past campaign and the contribution of various individuals. As a critic, I was surprised and impressed by Corbyn.JennyFreeman said:0 -
I suspect it's *cough* a bit late for all that.Ishmael_Z said:So BBC or Sky at 10 pm? (Bearing in mind I am in love with Sophy Ridge).
0 -
The GE campaign was useful. It informed us that
Corbyn is still crap
May is also crap
Sturgeon has become crap
Farron is an irrelevant crap
Wood is yn crap
and Nuttall...who?0 -
And for longer if the exit poll is sub-optimal...Casino_Royale said:
All bedwetting rights are fully reserved for the next 7 hours and 19 minutes.JackW said:Apologies for the delay. A complete outage at Auchentennach Castle as an escapee went into the fence in a bid to vote and double the LibDem score !!
..................................................................................................
Final JackW Conservative Bedwetting Index :
Con 378 .. Lab 199 .. LibDem 8 .. SNP 44 .. PC 3 .. Green 1 .. UKIP 0 .. Speaker 1 .. NI 18
Con Maj 102
Turnout 66% 0 -
-
Well four hours in my polling station and it has been solidly raining for the past two hours.
I didn't sit at the Assembly election but I was told it was significantly busier.
Couple of younger voters turned up who are not registered. I think that might well happen more in England as many of the keyboard Momentum warriors didn't check the actual register.0 -
There's always one pedant isn't there?RobD said:
Point of order. There was only one bong before the exit poll was announced last time.GIN1138 said:
Ah, finally!JackW said:Apologies for the delay. A complete outage at Auchentennach Castle as an escapee went into the fence in a bid to vote and double the LibDem score !!
..................................................................................................
Final JackW Conservative Bedwetting Index :
Con 378 .. Lab 199 .. LibDem 8 .. SNP 44 .. PC 3 .. Green 1 .. UKIP 0 .. Speaker 1 .. NI 18
Con Maj 102
Turnout 66%
So at 10pm it will be:
*BONG* *BONG* *BONG*
"Landslide For May" 0 -
That's weird. The Greens are campaigning with plackards in Cambridge City Centre. I didn't think that was allowed on polling day?0
-
So just the Sunderland results then before radio silence!AlastairMeeks said:
I'll probably be allowed to keep up to date until about 11pm or so. After that I expect I shall be given a robust Ulster Scots expression to encourage me to get some sleep.TOPPING said:
You are of course doing the right thing but try not to wake him up at 10:00:01 with a shriek (one way or the other).AlastairMeeks said:Since we're among friends...
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
So I'll be missing all the fun.
Plus we will be closely monitoring PB to ensure that you haven't snuck off to the loo, only to return half an hour later, having posted here 20 times in the meantime.
I will be out until 10pm G-ing OTV but will have the odd PB moment the while.0 -
I see your conversational English is continuing to improve Andrea.AndreaParma_82 said:The GE campaign was useful. It informed us that
Corbyn is still crap
May is also crap
Sturgeon has become crap
Farron is an irrelevant crap
Wood is yn crap
and Nuttall...who?0 -
indeed, this guy though?Casino_Royale said:
There are those I take seriously as reliable sources, and those I do not.AlastairMeeks said:
Call me a cynic, but I wonder what day last week that tweet was drafted.Slackbladder said:Guido FawkesV @GuidoFawkes
Hearing Labour fears that their vote is not coming out. #CorbynEffect
Guido Fawkes is not one of them.
https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/8728109090261975060 -
Anecdote alert: Voted at about 12:30 and the gentleman handing out the ballot papers said unprompted that turnout was "high", that over a hundred had voted so far there which is "double" what he would normally expect by that time. Said that there had been a lot of young people voting.
Make of that what you will. Not had the chance to read the thread so don't know if that matches other people's expectations.0 -
Is it about seats or vote share, though, among the party members?DanSmith said:I feel like anything below 200 seats and the Corbyn project is struggling to remain viable.
If he got 35% and lost seats, he'd surely be unassailable.0 -
Which constituency, if we can ask?Philip_Thompson said:Anecdote alert: Voted at about 12:30 and the gentleman handing out the ballot papers said unprompted that turnout was "high", that over a hundred had voted so far there which is "double" what he would normally expect by that time. Said that there had been a lot of young people voting.
Make of that what you will. Not had the chance to read the thread so don't know if that matches other people's expectations.0 -
I am not certain about the outcome. Its the second time the General election has been fought on facebook. I have seen absolutely nothing of it, so I have no idea what ordinary people are saying(ie not the PB crowd). I couldn't listen to 5 live it was too painful.
0 -
Whereabouts are you?Philip_Thompson said:Anecdote alert: Voted at about 12:30 and the gentleman handing out the ballot papers said unprompted that turnout was "high", that over a hundred had voted so far there which is "double" what he would normally expect by that time. Said that there had been a lot of young people voting.
Make of that what you will. Not had the chance to read the thread so don't know if that matches other people's expectations.0 -
Depends how close that 35% is, if they are within 6-7% then he could justify staying on. 10+ behind though and they are no where.Alice_Aforethought said:
Is it about seats or vote share, though, among the party members?DanSmith said:I feel like anything below 200 seats and the Corbyn project is struggling to remain viable.
If he got 35% and lost seats, he'd surely be unassailable.0 -
Millennials4jezzaPhilip_Thompson said:Anecdote alert: Voted at about 12:30 and the gentleman handing out the ballot papers said unprompted that turnout was "high", that over a hundred had voted so far there which is "double" what he would normally expect by that time. Said that there had been a lot of young people voting.
Make of that what you will. Not had the chance to read the thread so don't know if that matches other people's expectations. 0 -
the survation gave her a 15% lead on this measure but just 1% lead overall.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think the link is going to be stronger if we truly are reverting back to two party politics.Sean_F said:
OTOH, he only had a 4% lead over Brown in 2010.TheScreamingEagles said:The final Ipsos MORI poll gives Mrs May an 11% lead over Corbyn on most capable PM.
In 2015 Cameron had a 15% lead over Miliband.
#MayIsCrap
There must be a link between best PM and voting intention, but it's not a clear one.0 -
Four hours later and I see the PB Tories are still stereotyping Millennials as feckless and lazy. How we chortled. How we larfed.rural_voter said:
I'm surprised the Labour manifesto didn't include the policyBrom said:
It's just asleep. They'll be awake by 10pm and ready to head out to vote in the new Che Guevara. Hang on a minute...rottenborough said:
Didn't we read this on Labour Uncut two weeks ago?Slackbladder said:Guido FawkesV @GuidoFawkes
Hearing Labour fears that their vote is not coming out. #CorbynEffect
'We shall extend voting hours to midnight'.
Or to 07.00 h the next day.0 -
In my view May is crap and Corbyn isn't the danger he thinks he is and his opponents would like him to be. A paper tiger to use his favoured Communist terminology.AndreaParma_82 said:The GE campaign was useful. It informed us that
Corbyn is still crap
May is also crap
Sturgeon has become crap
Farron is an irrelevant crap
Wood is yn crap
and Nuttall...who?0 -
To be a corbynista you have to be far too far gone, to worry about the seat count at a rigged General Election. Messiahs who foresee the end of the world are never fazed when it doesn't happen, they just tell the faithful it's been postponed. The popular vote strategy is specifically Corbynite, not generally Labour and designed to inflame the faithful by contrasting vote share with seats won. Is he going to stand down? No. Are they going to no confidence him again? No. Is he going to limp on till conference in any way he can so as to rig the leadership election rules? Yes.DanSmith said:I feel like anything below 200 seats and the Corbyn project is struggling to remain viable.
0 -
Eek. Must be quite a few who have died since casting their postal vote 10 days ago.Casino_Royale said:
Some people will die between casting their votes this morning, and the results being announced overnight.Carolus_Rex said:
You know, I've never thought of that - does a postal vote count if you're dead?welshowl said:
But how many are registered? Being alive is only half the battle you've got to be registered. In fact if you posted, being alive is less important on the actual day than being registered come to think of it.MikeL said:The Ben Page tweet worries me a bit.
He's basically saying half of all voters will be over 55.
Makes me wonder if they have overdone the turnout weighting.
Average life expectancy in UK is 81. So:
18 to 54 = 37 years
55 to 81 = 26 years
So average turnout must be 37/26 = 42% higher amongst over 55s - that's ratio, not absolute amount.
Implies say:
54% turnout amongst under 55s
77% turnout amongst over 55s
Is that realistic?
Then again, how would they know?
And for that matter - what happens if you put your cross in the box on the day and drop dead between the polling booth and the ballot box?
I know I should get out more.
They will still be counted.
~800,000 people die each year, call it 25,000 in 10 days. Almost all wil be over 18, 15-odd % have a postal vote, turnout 67%. So ~2500 dead people's votes will be counted. Is that right?!
Reminds me of the "stat" that if you buy your lottery ticket before IIRC Thursday lunchtime you're more likely to be dead than win the jackpot.
Have a nice day everyone!0 -
Jack's seats total 652, so presumably the Tories' seat total should read 376 instead of 378.AlastairMeeks said:
That's a Con Maj of 106!JackW said:Apologies for the delay. A complete outage at Auchentennach Castle as an escapee went into the fence in a bid to vote and double the LibDem score !!
..................................................................................................
Final JackW Conservative Bedwetting Index :
Con 378 .. Lab 199 .. LibDem 8 .. SNP 44 .. PC 3 .. Green 1 .. UKIP 0 .. Speaker 1 .. NI 18
Con Maj 102
Turnout 66%
Well, there you go, Jack goes for a 100+ seat landslide Tory win, whereas Stephen Fisher reckons there's only a 1% chance of such an eventuality.
You pays your money and you takes your choice!0 -
I'll get through the day OK, it's the train journey home that concerns me: fall asleep, snore and dribble, miss Leamington and end up in Kidderminster then only realise I have left my wallet and phone on board when I get on the next train back to Leamington. It may have happened before!Slackbladder said:
the same thing happened with me in 2015, just couldn't sleep. got a few hours max, but was ok-ish for work on the friday...Jonathan said:
Just roll with it. You're not going to sleep. Go to the cinema if necessary.SouthamObserver said:
I really want to sleep tonight as I am off out for a long lunch and then drinks tomorrow, but I do not see how I will be able to do it. My head will not let me. I am seriously considering a midnight sleeping pill, but am not sure even that will work.AlastairMeeks said:
I'll probably be allowed to keep up to date until about 11pm or so. After that I expect I shall be given a robust Ulster Scots expression to encourage me to get some sleep.TOPPING said:
You are of course doing the right thing but try not to wake him up at 10:00:01 with a shriek (one way or the other).AlastairMeeks said:Since we're among friends...
My other half is recovering very well at present. He decided that he wanted to go back to Northern Ireland for a couple of weeks (for personal and business reasons). He chose today as the day when he wanted to travel and explained that no, he didn't have much flexibility about this.
As a result, I shall be on a ferry across the North Sea tonight while the election results unfold. The wifi is iffy and in any case my cabin mate won't take kindly to an illuminated iPad.
So I'll be missing all the fun.
Plus we will be closely monitoring PB to ensure that you haven't snuck off to the loo, only to return half an hour later, having posted here 20 times in the meantime.
I will be out until 10pm G-ing OTV but will have the odd PB moment the while.
0
